1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of Treasury bond futures may be volatile, and the impact of stock indices should continue to be monitored. Trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - On Wednesday, the opening prices of the main contracts of Treasury bond futures varied. The 30 - year variety opened significantly higher. Most main contracts fluctuated horizontally in the morning and rose in the afternoon. The 30 - year Treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 rose 0.75%, the 10 - year T2603 rose 0.03%, the 5 - year TF2603 rose 0.01%, and the 2 - year TS2603 fell 0.01%. [1] - On Wednesday, the Wande A - share index opened slightly lower, rose in the morning and then fluctuated horizontally. It closed 0.57% higher than the previous trading day, with a small positive line. The trading volume was 2.62 trillion yuan, a slight decrease from 2.80 trillion yuan in the previous trading day. [2] 3.2 Important Information - In the open market, the central bank conducted 363.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Wednesday. With 240.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net investment was 122.7 billion yuan. [1] - In the money market, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market declined on Wednesday. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.32%, compared with 1.37% in the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 was 1.50%, compared with 1.49% in the previous trading day. [1] - In the cash bond market, the closing yields of inter - bank Treasury bonds on Wednesday showed mixed changes compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year Treasury bonds rose 0.45 BP to 1.40%, the 5 - year rose 0.19 BP to 1.60%, the 10 - year fell 0.14 BP to 1.83%, and the 30 - year fell 3.25 BP to 2.30%. [1] - The Minister of the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development, Ni Hong, stated that the policy of implementing measures according to the city, precise policies, and one - city - one - policy will continue. The focus is on controlling increments, reducing inventories, and optimizing supplies. The "white - list" system for real - estate financing will be utilized to support the reasonable financing needs of real - estate enterprises and the rigid and improved housing needs of residents. [1] 3.3 Market Logic - In 2025, China's GDP was 1,401,879 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%, achieving the target set at the beginning of the year. In the fourth quarter, China's GDP increased by 1.2% quarter - on - quarter. In December, the growth rates of fixed - asset investment and total retail sales of consumer goods were lower than market expectations. The year - on - year actual growth rates of export and industrial added value above designated size both exceeded market expectations. The year - on - year growth rate of the service production index in December rebounded by 0.8 percentage points compared with November. [1] - In December last year, the year - on - year sales volume and housing prices of domestic real estate continued to decline, and the data from the first half of January this year also showed the same trend. The central bank announced a 0.25 - percentage - point reduction in the rediscount and re - loan interest rates starting from January 19, 2026, and stated that there is still room for reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts throughout the year. [1] - On January 20, the Ministry of Finance stated that in 2026, the fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure will be maintained at a necessary level to ensure that the overall expenditure intensity "only increases and does not decrease" and the guarantee of key areas "only strengthens and does not weaken". [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations. [2]

Morning session notice 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 早盘提示 重要事项: 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 22 日星期四 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 COMEX 黄金期货涨 1.48%报 4836.20 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货跌 1.78% ...

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 21 日星期三 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 | | | | | | | 铁矿: 【行情复盘】 周二铁矿夜盘收涨。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、国家 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for the sugar in the agricultural, forestry and livestock sector is "Oscillating Weakly" [1] - The investment rating for the rubber series in the energy and chemical sector is "Oscillating" [5] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For sugar, the external market of raw sugar is weak, affected by supply pressure from Thailand and India, and may maintain range - bound oscillations in the short term. The domestic sugar market is calm, and technically, the recent trend of Zhengzhou sugar is weak. It is recommended to adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy [1] - For rubber series, natural rubber continues to be weak with insufficient support, and attention should be paid to weather and new policies. Synthetic rubber has a complex situation with both positive and negative factors, and the market may oscillate and consolidate [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar Market Quotes - On the previous day, the closing price of SR605 contract was 5183 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.16%, and the night - session closed at 5188 yuan/ton. The closing price of SR609 contract was 5200 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.14%, and the night - session closed at 5201 yuan/ton [1] Important Information - The spot price of white sugar in Guangxi was 5283 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton. The quotation range of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5290 - 5360 yuan/ton, down 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The quotation of Yunnan sugar - making groups was 5150 - 5190 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The mainstream quotation range of processing sugar mills was 5700 - 5900 yuan/ton, with individual prices down 20 yuan/ton [1] - Brazil exported 143.66 million tons of sugar and honey in the first three weeks of January, a 9.09% increase from the same period last year, with an average daily export volume of 13.06 million tons [1] - As of January 17, 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, Thailand's cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume was 29.2643 million tons, a 16.09% decrease from the same period last year. The sugar content in sugar - cane was 11.95%, a 0.08% increase. The sugar - production rate was 9.790%, a 0.024% decrease. The sugar production was 2.8651 million tons, a 16.3% decrease [1] - The white - sugar warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 14439, a daily increase of 313 [1] Trading Strategy - Hold the long - term short position of SR605 and pay attention to the range of 5100 - 5230 [1] Rubber Series Market Quotes - As of January 20, the closing price of RU2605 contract was 15620 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.79%. The closing price of NR2603 contract was 12550 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.83%. The closing price of BR2603 contract was 11585 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.17% [5] Important Information - The price of raw - material glue in Thailand was 57.5 Thai baht/kg, and the price of cup - lump was 51.8 Thai baht/kg (- 0.38%). The price of Yunnan rubber blocks was 13200 yuan/ton [5] - As of January 18, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general - trade areas in Qingdao was 5.849 million tons, a 2.94% increase from the previous period. The bonded - area inventory was 995,000 tons, a 6.42% increase, and the general - trade inventory was 4.854 million tons, a 2.26% increase [5] - The price of whole - latex was 15400 yuan/ton, a 0.65% decrease. The price of 20 - grade Thai standard rubber was 1880 US dollars/ton, a 1.05% decrease, equivalent to 13161 yuan/ton in RMB. The price of 20 - grade Thai mixed rubber was 14750 yuan/ton, a 0.67% decrease [5] - The price difference between the main contracts of RU and NR was 3070 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20. The price difference between mixed - standard rubber and the main contract of RU was - 870 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton [5] - The delivery price of butadiene in the central Shandong region was about 9400 - 9600 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China was about 9050 - 9150 yuan/ton [5] - The market prices of cis - butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber declined. The price of Daqing BR9000 in the Shandong market dropped by 100 yuan/ton to 11550 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene 1502 in the Shandong market dropped by 200 yuan/ton to 11900 yuan/ton [5] Trading Strategy - Pay attention to the support near the lower moving average for the rubber series in the near term, and the medium - and long - term strategy is still mainly to buy at low prices [5]

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 01 月 21 日星期三 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 联系方式：0371-65617380 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 昨日夜盘玉米期货震荡整理，截至夜盘收盘主力合约2603合约涨跌幅0%，收于2272 | | | | | 元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中国粮油商务网监测数据显示，昨日深加工企业报价小幅上涨。东北地区企业收 | | | | | 购价2179元/吨，较前一日涨3元/吨；华北地区收购均价2280元/吨，较前一日涨2 | | | | | 元/吨。 | | | | | 2、中国粮油商务网监测数据显示昨日南北港口价格北稳南弱。锦州港15%水二等玉 | | | | | 米收购价2280-2290元/吨，较前一日持平；蛇口港玉米成交价2420元/吨，较前一日 | | | | | 持平。 | | | | | 3、售 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | | | | | | | 铁矿: 【行情复盘】 周二铁矿夜盘收涨。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、国家发改委有关负责人介绍，将研究制定出台 2026 年—2030 年扩大内需战略实 | | | | | 施方案；要实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，把促进物价回升作为 | | | | | 货币政策的重要考量；依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，破解内卷竞争。 | | | | | 2、力拓（Rio Tinto）发布四季度产销报告：四季度皮尔巴拉业务铁矿石产量为 8970 | | 黑色建材 | 铁矿 | 偏多 | 万吨，环比增加 6.66%，同比增加 3.70%。四季度皮尔巴拉业务铁矿石发运量为 9130 | | | | | 万吨，环比增加 8.30%，同比增加 6.53%。 | | | | | 3、 1 月 12 日-1 月 18 日，澳大利亚、巴西七个主要港口 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 21 日星期三 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | | | --- | --- | | 品种 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | 钢材: 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周二螺纹热卷夜盘收跌。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、国家发改委有关负责人介绍，将研究制定出台 2026 年—2030 年扩大内需战略实 | | | | | 施方案；要实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，把促进物价回升作为 | | | | | 货币政策的重要考量；依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，破解内卷竞争。 | | | | | 2、财政部有关负责人介绍，2026 年财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量将保持必要 | | | | | 水平，确保总体支出力度"只增不减"、重点领域保障"只强不弱" ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the black (coking coal and coke) sector is "oscillating weakly" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The double - coking (coking coal and coke) market is expected to be in a short - term weak trend. The market accelerated its decline yesterday, and the downward trend slowed down during the night session. The safety accident at Baotou Steel led to potential steel mill safety inspections, which may cause a decline in pig iron production, and the long - awaited first round of coke price increase has not been implemented, resulting in short - position additions in the double - coking market [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Quotes - Yesterday, the main coking coal contract Jm2605 closed at 1124.0, a 4.3% decline compared to the opening of the day session; the main coke contract J2605 closed at 1673.5, a 2.76% decline compared to the opening of the day session. During the night session, the main coking coal contract closed at 1113.0, a 0.98% decline compared to the close of the day session, and the main coke contract closed at 1671.0, a 0.15% decline compared to the close of the day session [1] Important Information - The National Development and Reform Commission will study and formulate an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand from 2026 - 2030, implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and take promoting price recovery as an important consideration for monetary policy, and regulate the low - price and disorderly competition of enterprises in accordance with laws and regulations [1] - The Ministry of Natural Resources and the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development issued a notice on measures to support urban renewal, proposing a transitional policy for using existing land and real estate resources to develop supported industries without changing the land - use subject and planning conditions within a certain period [1] - As of the time of the report, the explosion accident at Baotou Steel's plate factory in Inner Mongolia has caused 9 deaths, and the status of 1 missing person is being further confirmed [1] - On January 20, the online auction price of coking coal in the Changzhi Qinyuan market increased. The starting price of low - sulfur lean primary coking coal was 1500 yuan/ton, the average transaction price was 1598 yuan/ton, with a transaction volume of 30,000 tons, a 19 - yuan increase compared to January 13 [1] Market Logic - The double - coking market accelerated its decline yesterday. The safety accident at Baotou Steel led to potential steel mill safety inspections, which may cause a decline in pig iron production, and the long - awaited first round of coke price increase has not been implemented, resulting in short - position additions in the double - coking market [1] Trading Strategy - The double - coking market accelerated its decline before the close of the day session yesterday, and the downward trend slowed down during the night session. Coking coal is expected to show a short - term weak trend [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for treasury bonds is "Bullish (Slightly)" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - On Tuesday, treasury bond futures' main contracts generally rose, while the stock market pulled back. Due to factors such as China's GDP growth in 2025, fiscal and monetary policies, and international market uncertainties, treasury bond futures may fluctuate with a slight bullish trend in the short - term. Traders are advised to conduct band operations. [1][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Tuesday, the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened roughly flat and rose unilaterally throughout the day. The 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 rose 0.52%, the 10 - year T2603 rose 0.13%, the 5 - year TF2603 rose 0.09%, and the 2 - year TS2603 rose 0.05%. [1] - On Tuesday, the Wande All - A index opened slightly higher, declined in the morning to reach the day's low, and then fluctuated horizontally, closing down 0.58% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 2.80 trillion yuan, a slight increase from the previous day's 2.73 trillion yuan. [3] 3.2 Important Information - **Open Market**: On Tuesday, the central bank conducted 324 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 358.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 34.6 billion yuan. The latest LPR announced on Tuesday remained stable for the eighth consecutive month. [1] - **Funding Market**: On Tuesday, short - term interest rates in the inter - bank funding market rose. DR001's weighted average for the day was 1.37%, compared with 1.32% in the previous trading day; DR007's weighted average for the day was 1.50%, compared with 1.48% in the previous trading day. [1] - **Cash Bond Market**: On Tuesday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds mostly declined compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of the 2 - year treasury bond declined 1.23 basis points to 1.39%, the 5 - year declined 0.74 basis points to 1.60%, the 10 - year declined 0.67 basis points to 1.83%, and the 30 - year declined 0.66 basis points to 2.34%. [1] - **Fiscal Policy**: In 2025, the Ministry of Finance allocated ultra - long - term special treasury bond funds to support about 8,400 projects, driving total investment of over 1 trillion yuan, supporting a 11.8% year - on - year increase in equipment and instrument purchases and investment, and boosting overall investment by 1.8 percentage points. In 2025, China's fiscal deficit ratio was about 4%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year; the new government debt scale was 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan from the previous year. In 2026, the fiscal department will continue to implement a more proactive fiscal policy. [1] - **Policy Documents**: On January 20, the Ministry of Finance issued five consecutive documents on consumer loans, private investment, etc. Multiple departments jointly implemented or optimized loan interest subsidy policies for small and medium - sized enterprises, service providers, equipment updates, and personal consumption, as well as a special guarantee plan for private investment. [1][2] - **National Development and Reform Commission's Announcement**: On January 20, the National Development and Reform Commission stated that it will research and formulate an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030, study the establishment of a national - level merger and acquisition fund, strengthen government investment and fund layout planning, and take other measures. [2] 3.3 Market Logic - In 2025, China's GDP was 1,401,879 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. In the fourth quarter, China's GDP increased 1.2% quarter - on - quarter. In December, fixed - asset investment growth and total retail sales of consumer goods were lower than market expectations, while export growth and the actual year - on - year growth of industrial added value above a designated size exceeded market expectations. The service production index in December increased 0.8 percentage points year - on - year compared with November. [3] - In December last year and the first ten - day period of January this year, domestic real estate sales and housing prices continued to decline year - on - year. [3] - The central bank announced a 0.25 - percentage - point cut in the rediscount rate and relending rate starting from January 19, 2026, and indicated that there is still room for reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts throughout the year. The Ministry of Finance stated on January 20 that in 2026, the fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure will be maintained at necessary levels. [1][3] - Recently, the ongoing disputes between the US and Europe over Greenland, the shadow of the EU - US trade war, and the Japanese bond storm have dampened global investors' risk appetite, leading to a decline in overnight US stocks and the US dollar index. [3] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to conduct band operations. [4]

早盘提示 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1、国际货币基金组织（IMF）在最新一期《世界经济展望》中预测，今明两年全球 | 经济增长将稳定在 | 3.3%和 | 3.2%，较去年 | 10 | 月的预估分别上调 | 0.2 | 个百分点和保持 | | | | | | 不变。本轮改善主要来自美国和中国这两大经济体。 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2、对冲基金 | Picton Investments | 的负责人 | David Picton | 表示，如果美国总统特 | 朗普任命一位被视为过于唯命是从的美联储主席，债券市场将迅速惩罚美国，而贵 | | | | | | | | 金属仍然是对冲政治波动的良好工 ...