Ge Lin Qi Huo
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格林大华期货早盘提示:贵金属-20251014
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-10-14 01:50
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold and silver in the non-ferrous and precious metals sector are rated as "Bullish" [1] 2. Core View - Despite the easing of the Israel-Hamas conflict and the financial market's digestion of the US President's tariff threats, gold and silver prices continued to surge overnight. The combination of safe-haven funds and market inertia drove gold to break through $4,100 for the first time in history, and a historic short squeeze in the London silver market pushed silver to break through the $50 mark for the first time since 1980. However, due to the large number of profit-taking positions accumulated from the recent continuous rise, short - term volatility has intensified [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - COMEX gold futures closed up 3.24% at $4,130 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures closed up 7.47% at $50.775 per ounce. Shanghai gold closed up 2.45% at 936.72 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver rose 4.22% at 11,710 yuan per kilogram [1] Important Information - The world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, increased its holdings by 1.72 tons to 1,018.88 tons. The world's largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, increased its holdings by 310.5 tons, the largest increase since July 21, to 15,754.26 tons. A cease - fire agreement in Gaza was signed in Egypt, and the US President said they were in the third and fourth stages of the Gaza agreement [1] Market Logic - The financial market has digested the impact of the US President's tariff threats, with the Wind All - A Index rebounding and US stocks rising. Despite the easing of the Israel - Hamas conflict, gold and silver prices continued to soar. Gold's rise was driven by safe - haven funds and market inertia, and silver's rise was due to a historic short squeeze [1] Trading Strategy - Gold and silver have risen continuously, accumulating many profit - taking positions, and short - term volatility has intensified. Long positions should continue to hold, but be cautious about chasing the rise [1]
格林大华期货早盘提示:国债-20251014
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-10-14 01:49
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the macro and financial (treasury bond) sector is "oscillation" [1] 2) Core View of the Report - The market's reaction to the tariff information is generally optimistic, believing that the probability of a compromise between China and the US in the future is relatively high, resulting in a narrowing decline in the stock market and a corresponding correction in the bond market. Treasury bond futures may oscillate in the short - term [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Monday, the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened higher across the board, fluctuated horizontally in the morning session, and slightly declined in the afternoon. As of the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2512 rose 0.37%, the 10 - year T2512 rose 0.10%, the 5 - year TF2512 rose 0.03%, and the 2 - year TS2512 rose 0.02% [1] - The Wande All - A index opened significantly lower due to the US President's tariff threat on Friday, quickly rebounded in the morning, fluctuated horizontally, and then oscillated upward in the afternoon, recovering most of the losses. The trading volume was 2.37 trillion yuan, a slight decline from the previous trading day's 2.53 trillion yuan [1] Important Information - Open market: On Monday, the central bank conducted 137.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with no reverse repurchase due on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 137.8 billion yuan [1] - Funding market: On Monday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank funding market remained flat compared to the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.31% throughout the day, the same as the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 was 1.45%, up from 1.39% the previous day [1] - Cash bond market: On Monday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds generally increased compared to the previous trading day. The 2 - year treasury bond yield rose 1.00 BP to 1.49%, the 5 - year rose 1.89 BP to 1.60%, the 10 - year rose 1.77 BP to 1.84%, and the 30 - year rose 4.01 BP to 2.27% [1] - China's exports in September (in US dollars) increased 8.3% year - on - year (previous value: 4.4%); imports increased 7.4% (previous value: 1.3%); the trade surplus was 90.45 billion US dollars (previous value: 102.33 billion US dollars) [1] Market Logic - China's September exports in US dollars increased 8.3% year - on - year, exceeding the market expectation of 5.7%. The market's reaction to the tariff information is generally optimistic, believing that the probability of a compromise between China and the US in the future is relatively high, leading to a narrowing decline in the stock market and a corresponding correction in the bond market. Overnight US stocks also rose, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq recovering half of Friday's losses [1] Trading Strategy - For trading - type investments, conduct band operations [2]
格林大华期货早盘提示-20251014
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-10-13 23:31
Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the global economy in the macro and financial sector is "flat" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report presents a complex global economic and financial situation, with various factors influencing different markets. The U.S. economic data shows a "schizophrenic" state, and the global economic order is facing challenges. Meanwhile, China's economic indicators are positive, and the AI competition between China and the U.S. has changed the situation [1][2] Summaries by Related Catalogs Important Information - After U.S. President Trump hinted at canceling new tariffs on China on the 12th, U.S. stock index futures rose [1] - The spread between the near - month New York silver futures contract and the London silver spot reached $2.73 per ounce, a multi - year high. The one - month implied lease rate of London silver spot has risen to 40.3%, and the free - floating volume in the London silver market has dropped by 75% compared to the 2019 high [1] - The core driving force of the gold price is the market's expectation of the "order reconstruction" of the global political and economic situation, and its upward trend may not end [1] - Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio warned that the rapid growth of U.S. government debt and intensifying internal and external conflicts are creating a situation "very similar" to that before World War II [1] - U.S. consumer spending and AI capital expenditure are strong, with third - quarter consumer spending growing nearly 3%, but the employment market has slowed down and the unemployment rate has risen, which poses challenges to asset pricing [1] - The era when the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield is above 4% is coming to an end [1] - The U.S. stock bull market that started in October 2022 has reached its third anniversary, with the S&P 500 index rising 83% and its market value increasing by $28 trillion. The current valuation is at a record - high price - to - earnings ratio of 25 times [1] - The Houthi rebels said they would stop attacking Israeli and Israel - related ships in the Red Sea if Israel complies with the cease - fire agreement in the Gaza Strip [1] - Goldman Sachs has significantly raised its forecast for Alibaba's capital expenditure in the next three years to 460 billion yuan, believing that AI capital expenditure transformation is reshaping Alibaba's growth expectations [1][2] Global Economic Logic - China's September exports were $328.5 billion, with an 8.3% year - on - year increase, and imports had a 7.4% year - on - year increase, reaching a six - month high for exports and a 17 - month high for imports [2] - China's control of rare earths is a firm response to the U.S. restrictions on mature - process semiconductor equipment and materials. Interrupting the U.S. AI chip production may lead to a catastrophic decline in U.S. stocks [2] - According to the HSBC emerging markets survey, China is the preferred stock investment market. International capital is actively increasing its positions in China's technology sector [2] - Huawei's Ascend chips are leading NVIDIA in computing power. Alibaba is actively promoting 380 billion yuan of AI infrastructure construction and plans to increase investment [2] - Due to the U.S.'s continuous wrong policies, the global economy is entering the top - region [2]
中国9月出口增长超预期
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-10-13 09:36
Group 1: Overall Trade Performance - China's September exports denominated in US dollars increased by 8.3% year-on-year, exceeding the forecast of 5.7% and the previous value of 4.4%; imports increased by 7.4% year-on-year, exceeding the forecast of 1.4% and the previous value of 1.3%; the trade surplus was $90.45 billion, compared with a previous surplus of $102.33 billion [1][4]. - From January to September, China's cumulative export amount increased by 6.1% year-on-year, compared with a 5.82% increase for the whole of last year; the cumulative import amount decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, compared with a 1.03% increase for the whole of last year [4]. Group 2: Export by Region - In September, China's exports to ASEAN increased by 15.6% year-on-year (14.7% from January to September, 12% for the whole of last year); exports to the EU increased by 14.2% year-on-year (8.2% from January to September, 3.0% for the whole of last year); exports to the US decreased by 27.0% year-on-year (-16.9% from January to September, 4.9% for the whole of last year); exports to South Korea increased by 7.0% year-on-year (-0.3% from January to September, -1.8% for the whole of last year); exports to Japan increased by 1.8% year-on-year (4.4% from January to September, -3.5% for the whole of last year) [2][5]. - In September, China's exports to countries and regions other than the top five export destinations increased by 16.5% year-on-year, faster than the overall export growth rate of 8.3% [2][5]. - In the first nine months of this year, China's exports to countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative increased by 11.4% year-on-year; exports to Africa from January to September increased by 28.3% year-on-year, compared with a 3.5% increase for the whole of 2024; exports to Latin America from January to September increased by 6.9% year-on-year, compared with a 13.0% increase for the whole of 2024 [2][5]. Group 3: Export by Product Category - In the first nine months, China's exports of mechanical and electrical products reached $1.55 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 8.6% (8.1% from January to August, 7.5% for the whole of last year); high-tech product exports increased by 7.1% year-on-year (6.4% from January to August, 4.8% for the whole of last year); integrated circuit exports increased by 23.3% year-on-year (22.1% from January to August, 17.4% for the whole of last year); exports of automobiles (including chassis) increased by 10.8% year-on-year (10.8% from January to August, 15.5% for the whole of last year); exports of ships increased by 21.4% year-on-year (18.3% from January to August, 57.3% for the whole of last year) [2][8]. - In the first nine months, exports of household appliances decreased by 2.2% year-on-year (-1.2% from January to August, 14.1% for the whole of last year); exports of mobile phones decreased by 9.8% year-on-year (-11.5% from January to August, -3.1% for the whole of last year); exports of clothing and clothing accessories decreased by 2.5% year-on-year (-1.7% from January to August, 0.3% for the whole of last year); exports of toys decreased by 8.3% year-on-year (-5.2% from January to August, -1.7% for the whole of last year); exports of furniture and parts decreased by 4.8% year-on-year (-5.3% from January to August, 5.8% for the whole of last year); exports of luggage and similar containers decreased by 11.5% year-on-year (-11.5% from January to August, -3.2% for the whole of last year) [2][8]. Group 4: Import Performance - In September, China's imports exceeded expectations. The import of integrated circuits was 55.5 billion units, a year-on-year increase of 12%, with an amount of $41 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14%; the import of copper ore concentrates was 2.59 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 6%, and the amount spent was $7.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 24% due to the year-on-year increase in copper prices; the import of iron ore concentrates was 116 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12%, and the amount spent was $11.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13% as the price was slightly higher than the same period last year; the import of crude oil was 47.25 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4%, and the amount spent was $23.8 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 7% as the crude oil price fell compared with the same period last year; the import of automobiles (including chassis) was 41,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 26%, and the amount spent was $2 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 36% [3][9][10]. - In September, the largest year-on-year increase in imports was for aircraft with an empty weight of more than 2 tons. 27 were imported, a year-on-year increase of 93%, and the amount spent was $2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 201% [10]. Group 5: International Trade Environment and Outlook - In September, South Korea's exports increased by 12.7% year-on-year (1.3% in August), and Vietnam's exports increased by 24.7% year-on-year (14.5% in August), indicating that the overall international trade environment in September was good [3][11]. - In September, the eurozone's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.5, falling below the boom - bust line again, indicating that the eurozone's manufacturing industry was in recession; the US ISM manufacturing PMI new orders index in September was 48.9, falling back below the boom - bust line, and the US ISM services PMI index in September was 50.0 [3][11]. - In the fourth quarter, China's year-on-year export growth rate is expected to slow down due to the high base last year, and the results of a new round of Sino - US trade negotiations will also have a certain impact on China's exports [3][11]. - The World Trade Organization raised its forecast for global goods trade growth in 2025 from 0.9% to 2.4% on October 7, and significantly lowered its forecast for global goods trade growth in 2026 to 0.5%, compared with 1.8% in August [11].
格林大华期货早盘提示:三油-20251013
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-10-13 05:40
1. Report on the Investment Rating of the Industry No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the vegetable oil sector, due to external macro - impacts such as the unexpected bearish supply - demand report of Malaysia in September, the weakening of international crude oil, and the end of pre - holiday stocking, the sector has shown a downward trend. Palm oil led the decline, followed by soybean oil, while rapeseed oil was relatively resistant to the decline. - In the two - meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal) sector, affected by Sino - US economic and trade frictions, international crude oil price drops, and supply - demand imbalances, both are expected to have limited rebound space, and it is not advisable to chase high prices, but rather wait for mid - to - long - term short - selling opportunities [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Vegetable Oil Market 3.1.1 Market Review - On October 10, affected by the unexpected bearish Malaysian September supply - demand report, the vegetable oil sector weakened. The main contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all declined, with varying degrees of position reduction or increase. For example, the main soybean oil contract Y2601 closed at 8302 yuan/ton, down 0.36% day - on - day, and decreased positions by 1961 hands [1]. 3.1.2 Important Information - NYMEX crude oil futures closed lower on Thursday after the Israel - Hamas cease - fire agreement in Gaza. - After Argentina suspended the export tax on grains, about 40 ships of Argentine soybeans were registered for export in November and December, mostly to China, affecting US soybean export sales. Argentina resumed the export tax on Thursday. - The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) was to release an official monthly report on October 10. An industry survey showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in September would decline for the first time since February due to increased exports and decreased production. - Indonesia is approaching the implementation of the B50 biodiesel policy, which will require 20.1 million kiloliters of palm - based biofuel annually, compared to 15.6 million kiloliters under the current B40 policy. - From October 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 9.9% compared to the same period in September, with a significant increase in exports to China. - From October 1 - 5, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 12.55% month - on - month. - As of the 39th week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils decreased by 2.19% week - on - week but increased by 17.18% year - on - year [1]. 3.1.3 Spot Market - As of October 10, the average spot price of soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8580 yuan/ton, with a basis of 278 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton week - on - week; the average spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9460 yuan/ton, with a basis of 22 yuan/ton, up 132 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the palm oil import profit was - 569.67 yuan/ton; the spot price of grade - four rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10370 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis of 309 yuan/ton, up 77 yuan/ton week - on - week [2]. 3.1.4 Market Logic - Externally, Sino - US trade disputes and the decline of international crude oil led to the weakening of US soybean oil, and the bearish Malaysian supply - demand report pressured Malaysian palm oil. Domestically, after the pre - holiday stocking ended, demand weakened. In terms of supply, soybean oil production was high, and the inventory might increase. Palm oil was in the process of inventory accumulation, while rapeseed oil had a relatively strong fundamental support due to the expected supply gap [2]. 3.1.5 Trading Strategy - For single - side trading, a small number of new short positions in palm oil can be added. Wait for the adjustment to end before buying new long positions in rapeseed oil, and hold short positions in soybean oil. Provide support and pressure levels for each contract [2]. 3.2 Two - Meal Market 3.2.1 Market Review - On October 10, the spot market of the two - meal was slow, and the futures market was under pressure. The main contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal all declined, with varying degrees of position increase. For example, the main soybean meal contract M2601 closed at 2922 yuan/ton, down 0.58% day - on - day, and increased positions by 57932 hands [2]. 3.2.2 Important Information - As of October 2, the sowing progress of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean reached 9% of the total sown area, higher than the previous week and the same period last year. - Analysts expected that the net sales volume of US 2025/26 soybean exports from October 2 would be between 600,000 and 1.6 million tons, but the US Department of Agriculture postponed the release of the export sales report indefinitely due to the government shutdown. - The Trump administration was expected to announce a plan to rescue US farmers affected by the trade war and price drops, with preliminary expenditures possibly reaching up to $15 billion. - As of the end of October, Brazil's soybean exports were expected to reach 102.2 million tons, exceeding the total volume of 2024 and 2023. - As of the 39th week of 2025, the domestic inventory of imported soybeans increased, while the inventory of imported rapeseed decreased. The inventory of domestic soybean meal increased, and the contract volume decreased; the inventory of imported rapeseed meal remained flat, and the contract volume increased [2][3]. 3.2.3 Spot Market - As of October 10, the spot price of soybean meal was 2980 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis of - 2 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton week - on - week; the spot price of rapeseed meal was 2413 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis of 179 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton week - on - week [3]. 3.2.4 Market Logic - Externally, Sino - US economic and trade frictions and the decline of international crude oil pressured US soybeans. Trump planned to pressure China to resume US soybean purchases. Domestically, the supply of soybean meal was under pressure, and the demand was weak. For rapeseed meal, the approval of a company in Fujian to import Australian rapeseed had limited impact on the spot market, and the demand was limited as the aquaculture season was ending [3]. 3.2.5 Trading Strategy - For single - side trading, it is not advisable to chase high prices during the rebound. Wait for mid - to - long - term short - selling opportunities. Provide support and pressure levels for each contract [3].
格林大华期货早盘提示:贵金属-20251013
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-10-13 02:34
研究员: 刘洋 从业资格: F3063825 交易咨询资格:Z0016580 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 10 月 13 日星期一 Morning session notice 早盘提示 联系方式:liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多(空) | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | COMEX 黄金期货涨 1.58%报 4035.50 美元/盎司,COMEX 白银期货涨 0.76%报 47.52 美元/盎司。沪金收涨 0.42%报 913.26 元/克,沪银跌 1.37%报 11059 元/千克。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 1、截至 10 月 10 日,全球最大黄金 ETF--SPDR Gold Trust 持仓较上日增加 3.72 | | | | | 吨,当前持仓量为 1017.16 吨。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较 | | | | | 上日减少 8.47 吨,当前持仓量为 154 ...
格林大华期货早盘提示:钢材-20251013
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-10-13 02:33
研究员: 纪晓云 从业资格: F3066027 交易咨询资格:Z0011402 联系方式:010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多(空) | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 钢材: | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 周五螺卷跳空高开,收阴线。夜盘收跌。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、商务部新闻发言人就近期中方相关经贸政策措施情况答记者问时表示,中国的 | | | | | 出口管制不是禁止出口,对符合规定的申请将予以许可。中方事先已就措施可能对 | | | | | 产供链产生的影响进行了充分评估,并确信相关影响非常有限。如果美方一意孤行, | | | | | 中方也必将坚决采取相应措施,维护自身正当权益。 | | | | | 2、住建部:目前全国白名单项目贷款的审批金额已经超过了 7 万亿元,有力保障 | | | | | 了商品房项目建设交付。存量住房市场规模持续扩大,全国已有 15 个省区市二手 | | | | | 住宅的交易量超过新房。 | | 黑色建材 | 钢材 | 震荡 | 3、据了解,自国家发 ...
格林大华期货早盘提示:焦煤、焦炭-20251013
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-10-13 02:28
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - sell rating for coking coal and coke in the black sector [1] 2. Core View - The report analyzes the coking coal and coke market, stating that the steel market is experiencing inventory accumulation, the second - round price increase of coke is expected to be postponed, and the US tariff increase remarks may have a negative impact on the raw material end. It is predicted that the double - coking futures market will be stable with a downward trend, and the market may open bearishly [1] 3. Summary by Related Contents Market Review - Last week, the main coking coal contract Jm2601 closed at 1,161.0 yuan/ton, up 3.13% from the week's opening; the main coke contract J2601 closed at 1,666.5 yuan/ton, up 2.49% from the week's opening [1] Important Information - China's export controls are not a ban on exports, and the impact on the supply chain is limited. If the US acts willfully, China will take corresponding measures [1] - The approved loan amount for the national white - list real estate projects has exceeded 7 trillion yuan, and the second - hand housing trading volume in 15 provincial - level regions has exceeded that of new houses [1] - Guo Bin was appointed as the director, general manager, and deputy secretary of the Party Committee of Ansteel Group Co., Ltd. [1] Market Logic - The mainstream coking enterprises believe that the steel market is accumulating inventory, and the coke market is not ready for a price increase. The second - round price increase of coke is expected to be postponed, and the US tariff increase remarks may negatively affect the raw material end, causing the double - coking futures market to be stable with a downward trend [1] Trading Strategy - The market may open bearishly. It is recommended to control the position of last week's long positions and pay attention to market sentiment changes [1]
格林大华期货早盘提示:国债-20251013
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-10-13 01:58
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bullish short - term rating for treasury bond futures [1][2] 2. Core View of the Report - The consumption market during the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays showed stable performance, with the daily average sales revenue of consumption - related industries increasing by 4.5% year - on - year. The decline in the year - on - year property sales volume of 30 large - and medium - sized cities in early October widened. The US stock market fell sharply due to the US president's tariff threat, and market risk appetite declined significantly. Treasury bond futures are expected to open higher on Monday, with a short - term bullish outlook [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - On Friday, most of the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened slightly higher or flat, and trended downwards throughout the day. By the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2512 fell 0.49%, the 10 - year T2512 fell 0.06%, the 5 - year TF2512 fell 0.09%, and the 2 - year TS2512 fell 0.05% [1] Important Information - Open market: The central bank conducted 40.9 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Friday, with 60 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 19.1 billion yuan [1] - Money market: On October 11, the inter - bank market opened normally. The overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market decreased slightly compared to the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.31% for the whole day (1.32% in the previous trading day), and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.39% for the whole day (1.42% in the previous trading day) [1] - Cash bond market: Affected by the news, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds on October 11 generally decreased compared to the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year treasury bonds decreased by 1.94 basis points to 1.48%, the 5 - year decreased by 2.56 basis points to 1.58%, the 10 - year decreased by 2.54 basis points to 1.82%, and the 30 - year decreased by 5.01 basis points to 2.23% [1] - Consumption data: The latest VAT invoice data from the State Taxation Administration showed that the daily average sales revenue of consumption - related industries during the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays increased by 4.5% year - on - year. Commodity consumption and service consumption increased by 3.9% and 7.6% respectively year - on - year [1] - Shipping policy: On October 10, the Ministry of Transport issued an announcement on charging special port fees for US ships [1] - US economic data: The preliminary value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in the US in October was 55 (expected 54.2, previous value 55.1). The one - year inflation rate expectation in the US in October was 4.6% (expected 4.7%, previous value 4.70%); the five - to ten - year inflation rate expectation was 3.7% (expected 3.7%, previous value 3.70%) [1] - Trade policy: On October 10, the US announced a 100% tariff increase on China. China's Ministry of Commerce responded, urging the US to correct its wrong practices and maintain the stability, health, and sustainable development of Sino - US economic and trade relations [1] Market Logic - The consumption market during the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays showed stable performance, similar to the cumulative year - on - year growth of 4.6% in social retail sales from January to August and higher than the 3.4% year - on - year growth in August. The decline in the year - on - year property sales volume of 30 large - and medium - sized cities in early October widened. The US stock market fell sharply due to the US president's tariff threat, and market risk appetite declined significantly. Treasury bond futures are expected to open higher on Monday, with a short - term bullish outlook [1][2] Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to conduct band operations [2]
格林大华期货早盘提示:全球经济-20251013
Ge Lin Qi Huo· 2025-10-13 01:08
早盘提示 Morning session notice 研究员: 于军礼 从业资格: F0247894 交易咨询资格:Z0000112 联系方式:yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多(空) | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | 1、全球央行行长将在下周 IMF 和世界银行秋季年会上重点讨论股市泡沫及潜在的 | | | | 崩盘风险。IMF 总裁 Kristalina Georgieva 已经警告,当前资产估值已接近 25 年 | | | | 前互联网泡沫时期的水平,市场若大幅回调将拖累全球经济。 | | | | 2、商务部表示,中国的出口管制不是禁止出口,只要是用于民用用途的、合规的 | | | | 出口申请,都可以获得批准,相关企业无须担心。美方管制清单物项超过 3000 项, | | | | 而中方出口管制清单物项仅 900 余项。 | | | | 3、伦敦现货白银价格相对纽约期货出现了史无前例的溢价水平,市场流动性几乎 | | | | 枯竭。持有空头头寸的交易商难以找到可交割的金属,被迫支付高昂成本以延后结 | | | | 算 ...