1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since the policy cooled down the capital enthusiasm last week and lithium carbonate hit the daily limit down, the market has been filled with news related to lithium carbonate again. The market for lithium carbonate will experience wide - amplitude fluctuations at high levels in the near future, and attention should be paid to the news and exchange policies [7] - The spot market's buying sentiment has increased after the price correction, and downstream industries still have restocking needs [7] 3. Summary According to Related Contents 3.1 Mining License Information - There are two mining license information. One has the license number XC3609002022087110154013, with a mining area of 2.5029 square kilometers, and is valid from November 28, 2025, to November 27, 2047. The other has the license number XC36002022117110154366, with a mining area of 0.2546 square kilometers, and is valid from November 28, 2025, to November 9, 2037 [1][2] 3.2 Market Conditions of Lithium Carbonate Futures - As of the close on January 20, the main contract of lithium carbonate hit the daily limit up at 160,500 yuan/ton, with a daily increase in open interest of 4,020 lots and a trading volume of 450,000 lots. Starting from the settlement on January 21, 2026, the daily limit range of lithium carbonate futures contracts will be adjusted, the trading margin standard will be adjusted to 11%, and the speculative trading margin standard will be adjusted to 13% [3][7] 3.3 Policy and Industry Events - The CSRC has launched an investigation into Rongbai Technology's announcement of a "supply agreement for more than 120 billion yuan worth of 305 tons of lithium iron phosphate cathode materials", which helps to regulate the authenticity of listed companies' announcements and promote the reasonable transmission of industrial chain prices [7] - The progress of license renewal for lithium mines in Yichun has attracted attention again. After Shixiawo and Guoxuan submitted license renewal applications at the end of November 2025, Shixiawo has entered the environmental assessment public notice stage, and multiple department approvals and obtaining a safety license are still required for normal mining. The entire license renewal process has higher requirements, takes a long time, and may require suspension of production, reducing the supply elasticity of lithium carbonate in Yichun [7]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea industry in the energy and chemical sector is "oscillation" [1] 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report - The urea price is expected to oscillate, with the 05 contract reference range between 1720 - 1820 yuan/ton. The market is advised to take a wait - and - see approach [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Monday, the price of the urea main contract 2605 dropped 26 yuan to 1772 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the central China mainstream area fell 10 yuan to 1760 yuan/ton. Long - position holdings decreased by 4882 lots to 238,400 lots, and short - position holdings decreased by 5056 lots to 255,200 lots [1] Important Information - Supply: The daily urea production in the industry is 202,000 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons from the previous workday and 279,000 tons more than the same period last year. The current开工率 is 85.8%, a 4.5% increase from 81.2% in the same period last year [1] - Inventory: The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 986,100 tons, a decrease of 36,100 tons from last week, a 3.53% month - on - month decrease. The sample inventory at urea ports is 134,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6,000 tons [1] - Demand: The compound fertilizer开工率 is 40.1%, a month - on - month increase of 2.9%, and the melamine开工率 is 54.3%, a month - on - month increase of 6.7% [1] - Tender: On January 2nd, India's NFL held a urea import tender, receiving 26 suppliers with a total bid volume of 3.62 million tons, including 1.59 million tons on the east coast and 2.02 million tons on the west coast. The lowest bids were from Koch, at CFR426.8 dollars/ton on the east coast and 424.8 dollars/ton on the west coast [1] - Import and Export: In November 2025, urea imports were 197.77 tons, a 135.71% month - on - month increase; the average import price was 1107.41 dollars/ton, a 278.44% month - on - month increase. In the same month, urea exports were 601,800 tons, a 49.95% month - on - month decrease; the average export price was 424.76 dollars/ton, a 50.80% month - on - month decrease [1] - Oil Price: Geopolitical tensions in Iran and other regions have eased, reducing potential supply risks and causing international oil prices to fall. The NYMEX crude oil futures were closed for the US Martin Luther King Memorial Day holiday with no settlement price. The ICE Brent crude oil futures 03 contract fell 0.19 dollars to 63.94 dollars/barrel, a 0.30% month - on - month decrease. The Chinese INE crude oil futures 2603 contract rose 2.9 to 442.6 yuan/barrel, and then fell 2.3 to 440.3 yuan/barrel at night [1] Market Logic - Last week, the urea enterprise inventory dropped below 1 million tons. The lowest factory - gate price of mainstream urea factories yesterday was between 1690 - 1700 yuan/ton. New orders for urea factories have significantly weakened this week, but most prices remain stable due to the support of pending orders. Market transaction resistance has increased, leading to the oscillation of urea prices [1] Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to take a wait - and - see approach [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for iron ore in the black building materials sector is "Bullish" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - On Monday, iron ore prices declined both during the day and in the night session The decline was significant, breaking through the important threshold of 800 The support level has shifted down to 780, and the resistance level is at 844 [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Iron ore prices fell on Monday and continued to decline in the night session [1] Important Information - In 2025, China's GDP reached 140.1879 trillion yuan, a 5.0% increase compared to the previous year [1] - From January to December 2025, China's crude steel production was 960.81 million tons, a 4.4% year-on-year decrease; pig iron production was 836.04 million tons, a 3.0% year-on-year decrease; and steel production was 1.44612 billion tons, a 3.1% year-on-year increase [1] - In 2025, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.9% compared to the previous year [1] - In 2025, China's real estate development investment was 827.88 billion yuan, a 17.2% year-on-year decrease The floor area under construction of real estate development enterprises was 6.5989 billion square meters, a 10.0% year-on-year decrease; the newly started floor area was 587.7 million square meters, a 20.4% decrease; the completed floor area was 603.48 million square meters, an 18.1% decrease Among them, the completed floor area of residential buildings was 428.3 million square meters, a 20.2% decrease [1] Market Logic - The Baotou Steel accident did not cause the market to strengthen From January 12th to January 18th, the global iron ore shipment volume was 29.298 million tons, a decrease of 2.511 million tons compared to the previous period The arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 26.597 million tons, a decrease of 2.607 million tons compared to the previous period The daily average output of concentrated iron powder from 186 domestic mining enterprises was 46,670 tons, an increase of 1,020 tons compared to the previous period but a decrease of 490 tons compared to the same period last year The inventory of concentrated iron powder in mines was 87,500 tons, an increase of 1,180 tons compared to the previous period The inventory of imported iron ore at ports continued to accumulate The daily average pig iron output was 228,010 tons, a decrease of 1,490 tons compared to the previous week but an increase of 3,530 tons compared to the same period last year [1] Trading Strategy - Iron ore prices have dropped significantly, breaking through the important threshold of 800 The support level has shifted down to 780, and the resistance level is at 844 [1]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The US biofuel policy is on the agenda, boosting the global vegetable oil prices. Currently, it is difficult to operate in the oil market, and no trend direction has been formed. Given the strengthening of the bottom of soybean and palm oil, it is advisable to maintain a long - term bullish mindset of buying on dips. For rapeseed oil, pay attention to the rebound strength and hold short - term long positions [2] - For double - meal futures, the 05 contract maintains a bottom - oscillating mindset for mid - line trading, and the 09 contract may gradually decline. Consider gradually laying out short positions for the 09 contract [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Vegetable Oil Market a. Market Review - On January 19, the commodity market cooled down. Rapeseed oil led the decline in the vegetable oil sector, while palm oil and soybean oil showed resistance. For example, the main soybean oil contract Y2605 closed at 7,996 yuan/ton, down 0.25% day - on - day, with an increase of 584 lots in positions [1] b. Important Information - The Trump administration is expected to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending ratio quota in early March, and the US EPA is considering setting the 2026 biodiesel usage between 5.2 and 5.6 billion gallons [1] - Indonesia has cancelled the plan to increase the biodiesel mandatory blending ratio to 50% (B50) this year and will maintain the current 40% ratio [1] - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026, with 150,000 tons per month from South America [1] c. Market Logic - Externally, the easing of the US - Iran situation pressured international crude oil prices, but the US biofuel policy boosted US soybean oil prices. The cancellation of Indonesia's B50 plan and Malaysia's reduction of export tariffs affected the palm oil market [2] - Domestically, for soybean oil, there were both positive and negative factors. For palm oil, the cancellation of Indonesia's B50 plan led to inventory accumulation. For rapeseed oil, the short - selling funds entered the market, but then the price rebounded [2] d. Trading Strategy - For single - sided trading, new long positions can be entered for soybean and palm oil, and short - term long positions for rapeseed oil. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract [2] - For arbitrage trading, exit the previously concerned strategy of expanding the soybean - palm oil price difference [2] 2. Double - Meal Market a. Market Review - On January 19, the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal declined. For example, the main soybean meal contract M2605 closed at 2,727 yuan/ton, with no change in the closing price day - on - day, and a decrease of 24,449 lots in positions [2] b. Important Information - The auction of 1.1396 million tons of imported soybeans was fully subscribed, with an average transaction price of 3,809.55 yuan/ton [2][3] - The 2025/26 global soybean outlook includes increased production, higher crushing volume, reduced exports, and increased ending stocks. Brazil's soybean production is expected to reach 178 million tons [3] c. Market Logic - Externally, the Chinese tariff adjustment on Canadian rapeseed slightly dragged down the protein meal market, but the Brazilian discount remained firm. The main contract of domestic protein meal futures oscillated in the short term [4] - Domestically, the policy of reducing tariffs on Canadian rapeseed was a major negative factor. The spot market was supported by terminal inventory building before the Spring Festival [4] d. Trading Strategy - For the 05 contract of double - meal, maintain a bottom - oscillating mindset for mid - line trading and trade within the day. Gradually lay out short positions for the 09 contract. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract [4] - No arbitrage strategy is provided currently [4]

Group 1: Sugar in the Agricultural, Forestry, and Livestock Sector Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The domestic sugar market has a calm fundamental situation with no unexpected news. Technically, the recent trend of Zhengzhou sugar has weakened, and the overall commodity performance is sluggish. The market is expected to be in a weakly oscillating state in the short - term, and the support at the lower integer level should be monitored [1]. Key Points from the Directory - **Market Review**: On January 19, 2026, the closing price of the SR605 contract was 5,244 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.27%, and the night - session closed at 5,233 yuan/ton. The SR609 contract closed at 5,260 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.13%, and the night - session closed at 5,245 yuan/ton [1]. - **Important Information**: The spot price of white sugar in Guangxi was 5,306 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton. The quotation range of Guangxi sugar - making groups was 5,310 - 5,380 yuan/ton, and that of Yunnan sugar - making groups was 5,170 - 5,210 yuan/ton, with an overall reduction of 10 yuan/ton. The mainstream quotation range of processing sugar mills was 5,700 - 5,900 yuan/ton, with an individual reduction of 10 yuan/ton. As of January 15, 2026, India's sugar production in the 2025/26 crushing season reached 15.909 million tons, a nearly 22% increase from the same period last year. The number of sugar mills in operation was 518, an increase of 18 from the same period last year. As of January 17, 2026, Thailand's cumulative sugarcane crushing volume was 29.2643 million tons, a decrease of 5.6156 million tons or 16.09% from the same period last year. The sugar content was 11.95%, an increase of 0.08% from the same period last year. The sugar production rate was 9.790%, a decrease of 0.024% from the same period last year. Sugar production was 2.8651 million tons, a decrease of 0.5581 million tons or 16.3% from the same period last year. The number of white - sugar warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 14,126, with a daily increase of 0 [1]. - **Market Logic**: The ICE raw - sugar market was closed due to a US holiday, so there was no quotation. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar oscillated weakly. The latest data from Thailand and India were negative for international sugar prices, while the domestic white - sugar market had a calm fundamental situation [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold the long - term short position of the SR605 contract and monitor the support performance around 5,200 [1]. Group 2: Rubber in the Energy and Chemical Sector Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The natural - rubber market has insufficient positive fundamental support due to the weakening of overseas raw - material prices and the continuation of the seasonal inventory - accumulation trend. The synthetic - rubber market is affected by the weakening of the commodity sentiment, and the short - term price is mainly in the process of adjustment. In general, the rubber sector is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the support below. The medium - to - long - term strategy is to go long at low prices [5]. Key Points from the Directory - **Market Review**: As of January 19, 2026, the closing price of the RU2605 contract was 15,745 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.57%. The NR2603 contract closed at 12,655 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 0.71%. The BR2603 contract closed at 11,605 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.78% [5]. - **Important Information**: The price of raw - material glue in Thailand was 57.5 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 0.5 Thai baht or 0.86%. The cup - rubber price was 52 Thai baht/kg, a decrease of 0.20 Thai baht or 0.38%. The price of Yunnan rubber blocks was 13,200 yuan/ton, with no change. As of January 18, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general - trade areas in Qingdao was 584,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16,700 tons or 2.94%. The bonded - area inventory was 99,500 tons, an increase of 6.42%. The general - trade inventory was 485,400 tons, an increase of 2.26%. The inbound rate of the bonded - warehouse samples of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 0.85 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.05 percentage points. The inbound rate of general - trade warehouses increased by 0.72 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.55 percentage points. The price of whole - latex was 15,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan or 0.64%. The price of 20 - grade Thai standard rubber was 1,900 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5 US dollars or 0.26%, equivalent to 13,310 yuan/ton in RMB. The price of 20 - grade Thai mixed rubber was 14,850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan or 0.54%. The spread between the RU and NR main contracts was 3,090 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The spread between the mixed - standard rubber and the RU main contract was - 895 yuan/ton, a month - on - month contraction of 10 yuan/ton. The delivery price of butadiene in the central Shandong region was around 9,500 - 9,600 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China was around 9,150 - 9,250 yuan/ton. The market prices of cis - butadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber declined. The price of Daqing BR9000 in the Shandong market dropped 50 yuan to 11,700 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene 1502 in the Shandong market dropped 150 yuan to 12,100 yuan/ton [5]. - **Market Logic**: For natural rubber, the price continued to fall. With the weakening of overseas raw - material prices and the continuation of the seasonal inventory - accumulation trend, the fundamental situation was not favorable. For synthetic rubber, although the internal and external prices and supply of butadiene still provided some support to the market, the weakening of the commodity sentiment led to a decline in the actual - transaction price center. The production - device load of cis - butadiene rubber decreased slightly, but there was still inventory pressure [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the support near the moving average in the short - term for the rubber sector, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is to go long at low prices [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bottle chip in the energy and chemical industry is "Oscillation" [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The Middle East geopolitical situation is highly uncertain, causing crude oil prices to oscillate. Last week, bottle chip supply decreased slightly. There is no obvious improvement in the demand side. In the short - term, bottle chip prices will oscillate following raw materials, with the main contract PR2603 in the reference range of 5,930 - 6,180 yuan/ton. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Review - On Monday night session, the main price of bottle chips dropped 4 yuan to 5,978 yuan/ton. The price of East China water bottle - grade bottle chips was 6,035 yuan/ton (-15), and the price of South China bottle chips was 6,030 yuan/ton (+10). In terms of positions, long positions decreased by 45 lots to 60,200 lots, and short positions decreased by 33 lots to 61,200 lots [3] 3.2 Important Information - **Supply, Cost, and Profit**: This week, the domestic polyester bottle chip production was 325,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9,400 tons. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic polyester bottle chips was 70.2%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.03%. The production cost of polyester bottle chips was 5,588 yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 3.7 yuan/ton. The weekly production gross profit of polyester bottle chips was - 98 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 67 yuan/ton [3] - **Exports**: In November 2025, China's polyester bottle chip exports were 533,000 tons, an increase of 9,900 tons from the previous month. The cumulative export volume in 2025 was 5,865,000 tons [3] - **December Production and Capacity Utilization**: In December 2025, the production of China's polyester bottle chip industry was 1,478,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.48%. The capacity utilization rate in December was 73.12%, a month - on - month increase of 0.1 percentage points [3] - **Oil Price**: The geopolitical situation in Iran and other regions has eased, reducing potential supply risks and causing international oil prices to fall. The NYMEX crude oil futures were closed for the US Martin Luther King Memorial Day holiday with no settlement price. The ICE Brent crude futures contract 03 was at 63.94 dollars/barrel, down 0.19 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week decrease of 0.30%. The China INE crude oil futures contract 2603 rose 2.9 to 442.6 yuan/ton, and fell 2.3 to 440.3 yuan/ton in the night session [3] 3.3 Market Logic - The Middle East geopolitical situation is highly uncertain, leading to crude oil price oscillations. Last week, bottle chip supply decreased slightly. There is no obvious improvement in the demand side, with the downstream soft drink industry operating at 65 - 75%, oil plants at 57%, and the PET sheet industry at 60%. In the short - term, bottle chip prices will oscillate following raw materials [3] 3.4 Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the cotton in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock sector is bullish [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - ICE US cotton futures stabilized on Friday. The main 03 contract settled at 64.66 cents, with a daily decline of 0.08% but a weekly increase of 0.39% supported by the neutral and positive USDA monthly supply - demand report. The domestic cotton market has a mix of long and short factors. The expected supply tightening competes with poor downstream transmission and increased imported cotton supply. With uncertainties in overseas geopolitics and trade policies, the upward momentum of Zhengzhou cotton is insufficient in the short - term, and it is likely to maintain a volatile pattern [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Market Quotes - ICE 3 - month contract settled at 64.66, down 5 points; 5 - month at 66.23, down 4 points; 7 - month at 67.65, down 4 points, with about 33,000 lots traded. Zhengzhou cotton had a total trading volume of 344,243 and an open interest of 1,142,326. The settlement prices were 14,555 for January, 14,570 for May, and 14,820 for September [2] 2. Important Information - In December 2025, China's cotton imports were 180,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 60,000 tons (51.3%) and a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons (31.0%). From January to December 2025, China's cumulative cotton imports were 1.07 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 59.1%. From September to December 2025, cumulative imports were 490,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1%. On the 16th, the listed volume of 2025/26 cotton in terms of lint was about 34,000 tons, mainly from Telangana, Maharashtra, and Gujarat. CCI's daily auction was about 3,400 tons, far below the recent average. The 2024/25 S - 6 auction reserve price was stable at 53,500 rupees per candy, equivalent to about 75.55 cents per pound. CCI's cumulative purchase of 2025/26 seed cotton in terms of lint was about 1.37 million tons, with a 2024/25 cotton inventory of 7,310 tons [2] 3. Market Logic - ICE US cotton futures stabilized on Friday. The domestic cotton market has a mix of long and short factors, and short - term Zhengzhou cotton is likely to maintain a volatile pattern [2] 4. Trading Strategy - Build long positions for the 05 contract below 14,500 yuan per ton and set a take - profit at 15,000 yuan per ton [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the macro and financial sector (specifically for treasury bonds) is "oscillation" [3] Group 2: Report's Core View - The 2025 annual GDP of China reached 1,401,879 billion yuan, growing by 5.0% year - on - year at constant prices, meeting the target set at the beginning of the year. The Q4 GDP had a stable sequential growth. In December, the growth rates of fixed - asset investment and social consumer goods retail were lower than market expectations, while the export growth rate and the actual year - on - year growth of industrial added value of large - scale industries exceeded market expectations. The service industry production index in December increased by 0.8 percentage points compared to November. The real estate sales volume and housing prices continued to decline in December last year and in the first half of January this year. The central bank cut the re - loan and re - discount rates by 0.25 percentage points on January 19, 2026, and indicated there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts throughout the year. The treasury bond futures' main contracts mostly had a slight correction, with the 30 - year variety falling more. Treasury bond futures may oscillate in the short term, and the impact of the stock index should be continuously monitored [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - On Monday, most of the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened higher, then fell in the morning session and fluctuated narrowly until the close. As of the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures' main contract TL2603 fell 0.22%, the 10 - year T2603 fell 0.02%, the 5 - year TF2603 fell 0.02%, and the 2 - year TS2603 remained flat [3] Important Information - Open market: On Monday, the central bank conducted 158.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 86.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net injection of 72.2 billion yuan [3] - Money market: On Monday, the isolation interest rate in the inter - bank money market remained low. The weighted average of DR001 throughout the day was 1.32%, the same as the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 throughout the day was 1.48%, compared with 1.44% in the previous trading day [3] - Cash bond market: On Monday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds mostly increased compared to the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of the 2 - year treasury bond rose 0.29 basis points to 1.41%, the 5 - year fell 0.01 basis points to 1.61%, the 10 - year fell 0.31 basis points to 1.84%, and the 30 - year rose 3.81 basis points to 2.34% [3] - Economic data: In 2025, China's GDP was 1,401,879 billion yuan, growing 5.0% year - on - year at constant prices. In Q4, China's GDP increased by 4.5% year - on - year and 1.2% quarter - on - quarter. In 2025, the national fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% year - on - year (market expected a 2.4% decline), and in 2024, it increased by 3.2%. The sales area of newly built commercial housing in 2025 decreased by 8.7% year - on - year (12.9% in 2024), and the sales volume decreased by 12.6% year - on - year (17.1% in 2024). The added value of large - scale industries in 2025 increased by 5.9% year - on - year (5.8% in 2024). In December, the added value of large - scale industries actually increased by 5.2% year - on - year (market expected 4.9%, 4.8% in November). In Q4 2025, the national capacity utilization rate of large - scale industries was 74.9%, 0.3 percentage points higher than in Q3 and 1.3 percentage points lower than the same period in 2024. The total retail sales of social consumer goods in 2025 were 501,202 billion yuan, growing 3.7% year - on - year (3.5% in 2024). In December, the retail sales increased by 0.9% year - on - year (market expected 1.5%, 1.3% in November). The added value of the service industry in 2025 increased by 5.4% year - on - year (5.1% in 2024). In December, the service industry production index increased by 5.0% year - on - year (4.2% in November). In December, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.1%, the same as the previous month and the same period last year [3] Market Logic - The 2025 GDP growth met market expectations. The main contracts of treasury bond futures mostly had a slight correction, and the 30 - year variety fell more. Treasury bond futures may oscillate in the short term, and the impact of the stock index should be continuously monitored [4] Trading Strategy - Traders should conduct band operations [5]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the black building materials sector (steel) is "oscillating" [1] 2) Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the national economy withstood pressure, made progress towards new and high - quality development, and successfully completed the main goals of the "14th Five - Year Plan". The GDP was 140.1879 trillion yuan, a 5.0% increase compared to the previous year [1] - From January to December 2025, China's crude steel production was 960.81 million tons, a 4.4% year - on - year decrease; pig iron production was 836.04 million tons, a 3.0% year - on - year decrease; steel production was 1.44612 billion tons, a 3.1% year - on - year increase [1] - In 2025, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.9% compared to the previous year [1] - In 2025, the national real estate development investment was 827.88 billion yuan, a 17.2% year - on - year decrease. The construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.5989 billion square meters, a 10.0% year - on - year decrease. The new construction area was 587.7 million square meters, a 20.4% decrease. The completed area was 603.48 million square meters, an 18.1% decrease. Among them, the completed residential area was 428.3 million square meters, a 20.2% decrease [1] - The Baotou Steel incident did not cause the market to strengthen. In 2025, crude steel production decreased by 4.4% year - on - year, falling below 1 billion tons, and the supply and demand of steel both decreased. In the short and medium term, steel production and inventory both decreased. Among them, rebar production and inventory decreased slightly, hot - rolled coil production increased, and inventory decreased slightly. The apparent demand increased month - on - month. Overall, the supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is not prominent [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Contents Market Condition - On Monday, rebar and hot - rolled coils closed down, and they also closed down at night [1] Trading Strategy - Short - term operation is recommended. The support level for the main rebar contract is 3050, and the pressure level is 3200 [1]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - Corn: Interval [1] - Pig: Interval [1][3] - Egg: Short high for near - term contracts [3] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Corn market is currently a mix of long and short factors. In the medium - term, maintain a broad - range trading idea; in the long - term, follow the pricing logic of substitution + planting cost and focus on policy guidance [1] - For pigs, in the short - term, the decline in pig prices is limited; in the medium - term, supply may increase before March and ease after April; in the long - term, supply pressure exists before August and far - month contracts are expected to decline [3] - For eggs, in the short - term, there is a risk of a slight decline; in the medium - term, the spot price will remain low; in the long - term, the price bottom cycle may be extended, and wait for over - culling to drive capacity reduction [3] Group 3: Summary by Variety Corn - **Market Review**: The night - session of corn futures oscillated weakly yesterday. The main 2603 contract dropped 0.48% to 2271 yuan/ton [1] - **Important Information**: Deep - processing enterprise quotes fluctuated; port prices were stable; the grain - selling progress in the Northeast and North China accelerated [1] - **Market Logic**: Medium - term: multiple long and short factors; long - term: substitution + planting cost pricing logic [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Medium - term, maintain a broad - range trading idea. For the 2603 contract, the resistance at 2300 is verified, with support at 2250 - 2260; for the 2605 contract, the resistance at 2280 - 2290 is verified, with support at 2250 - 2260 [1] Pig - **Market Review**: Pig futures oscillated downward yesterday. The main 2603 contract dropped 2.09% to 11705 yuan/ton [1] - **Important Information**: Pig price increase stabilized, and northern prices weakened. In 2025, pig slaughter, pork production increased, and the number of sows decreased. Piglet numbers and weights changed, and the fat - lean price difference widened [1][3] - **Market Logic**: Short - term: limited decline; medium - term: supply may increase before March and ease after April; long - term: supply pressure exists before August and far - month contracts are expected to decline [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For the 2603 contract, the resistance at 12180 - 12300 is verified, with support at 11500; for the 2605 contract, the resistance at 12350 - 12450 is verified, with support at 11750 - 11800; for the 2607 contract, the resistance at 13000 is verified, with support at 12400 - 12500; for the 2609 contract, the resistance at 14000 is verified, with support at 13350, and if it breaks 13350, the support moves down to 13000 [3] Egg - **Market Review**: Egg futures declined under pressure yesterday. The main 2603 contract dropped 1.34% to 3023 yuan/500KG [3] - **Important Information**: Egg prices were mainly stable, inventory increased slightly, the price of culled chickens was basically flat, and the estimated number of laying hens decreased [3] - **Market Logic**: Short - term: risk of a slight decline; medium - term: spot price remains low; long - term: price bottom cycle may be extended [3] - **Trading Strategy**: In anticipation of the decline in spot prices in February, look for short - selling opportunities in near - term contracts after a rally. For the 2603 contract, the resistance at 3050 - 3080 remains, with support at 3000 - 3020, and a break below 3000 can open further downward space [3]