Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 22 日星期四 研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 昨日焦煤主力合约 Jm2605 收于 1129.0，环比日盘开盘上涨 0.44%；焦炭主力合约 J2605 收于 1683.5，环比日盘开盘上涨 0.6%。昨日夜盘，焦煤主力收于 1121.0.0，环比日盘 收盘下跌 0.71%，焦炭主力合约收于 1671.0，环比日盘收盘下跌 0.74% | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、财政部、税务总局、中国证监会发布《于延续实施创新企业境内发行存托凭证试点 | | | | | 阶段有关税收政策的公告》。其中提到，自 2026 年 1 月 1 日至 2027 年 12 月 31 日对个 | | | | | 人投资者转让创新 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 2026 年 1 月 22 日星期四 研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 昨日锰硅主力合约 SM2603 收于 5786 元/吨，环比日盘开盘下跌 0.21%。硅铁主力合约 | | | | | SF2603 收于 5556 元/吨，环比日盘开盘上涨 0.07%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、财政部、税务总局、中国证监会发布《于延续实施创新企业境内发行存托凭证试点 | | | | | 阶段有关税收政策的公告》。其中提到，自 2026 年 1 月 1 日至 2027 年 12 月 31 日对个 | | | | | 人投资者转让创新企业 CDR 取得的差价所得，暂免征收个人所得税。 | | | | | 2、针对"十五五"时期如何推 ...

Morning session notice | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 昨日 | SR605 | 合约收盘价 | 5144 | 元/吨，日跌幅 | 0.75%，夜盘收 | 5138 | 元/吨；SR609 | 合约 | | | | | | | 收盘价 | 5161 | 元/吨，日跌幅 | 0.75%，夜盘收 | 5158 | 元/吨。 | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | | | | | | 1 | 昨日广西白糖现货成交价为 | 5238 | 元/吨，下跌 | 45 | 元/吨；广西制糖集团报价区间 | 为 | 5270~5360 | 元/吨，整体下调 | 10~20 | 元/吨；云南制糖集团报价 | 5120~ | 5160 | 元/吨， | | | 下调 | 20~30 | 元/吨；加工糖厂主流报价区间为 | 5700~5820 | ...

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Bullish on iron ore in the black building materials sector [3] Group 2 - Core view: The iron ore market has certain positive factors, and short - term long positions can be attempted with stop - loss set [3] Group 3 1. Market Review - Iron ore futures closed higher in the night session on Tuesday [3] 2. Important Information - The National Development and Reform Commission will formulate an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030, implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and address low - price and disorderly competition among enterprises [3] - Rio Tinto's Pilbara iron ore production in the fourth quarter was 89.7 million tons, a 6.66% increase quarter - on - quarter and a 3.70% increase year - on - year. The shipment volume was 91.3 million tons, an 8.30% increase quarter - on - quarter and a 6.53% increase year - on - year [3] - From January 12th to January 18th, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1.1736 billion tons, a decrease of 816,000 tons from the previous period, slightly lower than the average level in the fourth quarter [3] 3. Market Logic - Globally, iron ore shipments and arrivals have decreased. Domestic mine production has increased, and port iron ore inventories continue to accumulate. The daily average hot metal output is 2.2801 million tons, a decrease of 14,900 tons from last week but an increase of 35,300 tons compared to the previous year [3] 4. Trading Strategy - Try short - term long positions and set stop - losses. The support level is lowered to 780, and the resistance level is 844 [3]

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 01 月 22 日星期四 研究员： 张晓君 从业资格：F0242716 交易咨询资格：Z0011864 联系方式：0371-65617380 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 昨日夜盘玉米期货震荡整理，截至夜盘收盘主力合约2603合约涨幅0.22%，收于228 | | | | | 2元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中国粮油商务网监测数据显示，昨日深加工企业报价涨跌互现。东北地区企业收 | | | | | 购价2181元/吨，较前一日涨3元/吨；华北地区收购均价2274元/吨，较前一日跌6 | | | | 元/吨。 | | | | | | 2、中国粮油商务网监测数据显示昨日南北港口价格稳定。锦州港15%水二等玉米收 | | | | | 购价2280-2290元/吨，较前一日持平；蛇口港玉米成交价2420元/吨，较前一日持平 | | | | 。 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The global economy has passed its peak and is starting to decline due to the continuous wrong policies of the United States [4] - The return of the United States to the Monroe Doctrine and its global contraction will have a profound and disruptive impact on major asset classes such as the global economy, US Treasuries, US stocks, the US dollar, precious metals, and industrial metals [3] Summaries by Related Catalogs Global Economic News - Japan's fiscal crisis and Trump's actions have led to a "triple kill" in the US financial market, with some suggesting Europe may be creating market turmoil to pressure Trump [1] - Bridgewater's founder, Ray Dalio, warns that Trump's radical policies may trigger a global capital war, which could lead to inflation or currency depreciation and increase foreign investors' concerns [1] - Danish pension fund AkademikerPension plans to sell US Treasuries by the end of the month due to credit risks from Trump's policies, holding about $100 million in US Treasuries at the end of 2025 [1] - The world's largest AI open - source community Hugging Face states that DeepSeek R - 1 has broken barriers, leading to China's AI reshaping the global landscape with more model downloads than the US [1] - Tesla will restart its supercomputer project Dojo 3, marking a major shift in its chip strategy towards "space artificial intelligence computing" [1] - Japan's government bond market has crashed, forcing the Bank of Japan to consider restarting unlimited bond - buying, which may lead to the yen breaking the 160 exchange - rate line [1] - Foreign investors account for about 65% of Japan's monthly government bond cash trading volume, and more Japanese pension funds may return to Japan, impacting the US Treasury market [1] - Poland's central bank plans to buy up to 150 tons of gold, increasing its reserves to 700 tons and aiming to be among the top 10 countries in gold reserves [1] Global Economic Logic - The US's actions such as seizing control of Venezuela's oil and threatening to buy Greenland have brought great uncertainty to the global political and economic order, and it has imposed punitive tariffs on 8 European countries, with European countries planning counter - tariffs [2] - A US prosecutor has launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, and Nomura predicts that Fed - related uncertainties will peak from July to November 2026, potentially leading to a "flight from US assets" [2] - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, buys $40 billion in short - term bonds monthly, and its balance sheet is expanding again [2] - Goldman Sachs warns that the decline in Las Vegas gambling revenue is similar to the early warning signs before the 2008 financial crisis [2] - The US has released a new National Security Strategy, adjusting its economic relationship with China to revive its economic autonomy [2] - The Fed's Beige Book shows a K - shaped consumer spending pattern, with high - income consumers maintaining spending while middle - and low - income families are cutting back [2] - The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points, and the yield of Japan's 10 - year government bonds rose to 2.18% [2] - Google's AI infrastructure head says the company must double AI computing power every 6 months and achieve a 1000 - fold increase in the next 4 - 5 years to meet AI service demand [2] - TSMC estimates its 2026 capital expenditure to be between $52 billion and $56 billion, a 27% - 37% increase year - on - year, signaling the continued boom in AI and restoring investors' confidence in AI demand [2]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 昨日焦煤主力合约 Jm2605 收于 1129.0，环比日盘开盘上涨 0.44%；焦炭主力合约 J2605 收于 1683.5，环比日盘开盘上涨 0.6%。昨日夜盘，焦煤主力收于 1121.0.0，环比日盘 收盘下跌 0.71%，焦炭主力合约收于 1671.0，环比日盘收盘下跌 0.74% | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、财政部、税务总局、中国证监会发布《于延续实施创新企业境内发行存托凭证试点 | | | | | 阶段有关税收政策的公告》。其中提到，自 2026 年 1 月 1 日至 2027 年 12 月 31 日对个 | | | | | 人投资者转让创新企业 CDR 取得的差价所得，暂免征收 ...

Morning session notice | | | | | | | 钢材: 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 周三螺纹热卷收跌。夜盘收涨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、工信部：支持地方因地制宜建设未来产业，加大政府投资基金投资力度。 | | | | | 2、住建部部长：支持房企合理的融资需求，支持居民刚性和改善性住房需求。 | | | | | 3、我国充电基础设施数量突破 2000 万大关。 | | 黑色建材 | 钢材 | 震荡 | 4、1 月 22 日，河北省邢台市、保定市、沧州市、衡水市、邯郸市、山东省德州市 | | | | | 启动重污染天气Ⅱ级应急响应。 | | | | | 【市场逻辑】 | | | | | 临近年底，钢厂冬储政策陆续发布。下游冬储意愿一般，多持谨慎心态，冬储量较 | | | | | 去年可能下降。当前市场冬储心理价位集中在 3000-3100 元/吨，此价格相对接近 | | | | | 当前现货价格水平。基本面，当前钢材产量、库存均下降，其中螺纹产量和库存微 | | | | | 降，热卷产量增加， ...

早盘提示 Morning session notice 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 周三两市主要指数低开后即快速冲高，成长类指数恢复活力，芯片板块涨幅居前。 | | | | | 两市成交额 2.60 万亿元，稍有减量。中证 500 指数收 8340 点，涨 92 点，涨幅 1.12%； | | | | | 中证 1000 指数收 8247 点，涨 64 点，涨幅 0.79%；沪深 300 指数收 4723 点，涨 4 | | | | | 点，涨幅 0.09%；上证 50 指数收 3067 点，跌 3 点，跌幅-0.11%。行业与主题 ETF | | | | | 中涨幅居前的是黄金股票 ETF、集成电路 ETF、科创芯片设计 ETF、芯片 ETF 广发、 | | | | | 半导体 ETF，跌幅居前的是银行 ETF、酒 ETF、食品 ETF。两市板块指数中涨幅居前 | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term trend of Treasury bond futures may be volatile, and the impact of stock indices should continue to be monitored. Trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - On Wednesday, the opening prices of the main contracts of Treasury bond futures varied. The 30 - year variety opened significantly higher. Most main contracts fluctuated horizontally in the morning and rose in the afternoon. The 30 - year Treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 rose 0.75%, the 10 - year T2603 rose 0.03%, the 5 - year TF2603 rose 0.01%, and the 2 - year TS2603 fell 0.01%. [1] - On Wednesday, the Wande A - share index opened slightly lower, rose in the morning and then fluctuated horizontally. It closed 0.57% higher than the previous trading day, with a small positive line. The trading volume was 2.62 trillion yuan, a slight decrease from 2.80 trillion yuan in the previous trading day. [2] 3.2 Important Information - In the open market, the central bank conducted 363.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Wednesday. With 240.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net investment was 122.7 billion yuan. [1] - In the money market, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market declined on Wednesday. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.32%, compared with 1.37% in the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 was 1.50%, compared with 1.49% in the previous trading day. [1] - In the cash bond market, the closing yields of inter - bank Treasury bonds on Wednesday showed mixed changes compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year Treasury bonds rose 0.45 BP to 1.40%, the 5 - year rose 0.19 BP to 1.60%, the 10 - year fell 0.14 BP to 1.83%, and the 30 - year fell 3.25 BP to 2.30%. [1] - The Minister of the Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development, Ni Hong, stated that the policy of implementing measures according to the city, precise policies, and one - city - one - policy will continue. The focus is on controlling increments, reducing inventories, and optimizing supplies. The "white - list" system for real - estate financing will be utilized to support the reasonable financing needs of real - estate enterprises and the rigid and improved housing needs of residents. [1] 3.3 Market Logic - In 2025, China's GDP was 1,401,879 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%, achieving the target set at the beginning of the year. In the fourth quarter, China's GDP increased by 1.2% quarter - on - quarter. In December, the growth rates of fixed - asset investment and total retail sales of consumer goods were lower than market expectations. The year - on - year actual growth rates of export and industrial added value above designated size both exceeded market expectations. The year - on - year growth rate of the service production index in December rebounded by 0.8 percentage points compared with November. [1] - In December last year, the year - on - year sales volume and housing prices of domestic real estate continued to decline, and the data from the first half of January this year also showed the same trend. The central bank announced a 0.25 - percentage - point reduction in the rediscount and re - loan interest rates starting from January 19, 2026, and stated that there is still room for reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts throughout the year. [1] - On January 20, the Ministry of Finance stated that in 2026, the fiscal deficit, total debt, and total expenditure will be maintained at a necessary level to ensure that the overall expenditure intensity "only increases and does not decrease" and the guarantee of key areas "only strengthens and does not weaken". [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations. [2]