Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Gold and silver have risen continuously recently, accumulating many profit - taking positions. Short - term volatility has intensified, and it is recommended to wait and see [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions Review - COMEX gold futures fell 0.85% to $4267.90 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 5.01% to $50.63 per ounce. Shanghai gold closed down 1.27% at 973.88 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver fell 3.94% to 11748 yuan per kilogram [1] Important Information - As of October 17, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF - SPDR Gold Trust increased by 12.59 tons from the previous day to 1047.21 tons, and the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF - iShares Silver Trust increased by 74.79 tons from the previous day to 15497.4 tons [1] - On October 17, the President of Ukraine met with the President of the United States. Zelensky said he was willing to accept bilateral or trilateral talks, and Trump said the Russia - Ukraine conflict should end. Trump is about to meet with Putin in Budapest, Hungary [1] - On the morning of October 18, Beijing time, He Lifeng, the Chinese lead person for China - US economic and trade affairs and Vice - Premier of the State Council, held a video call with US lead persons, US Treasury Secretary Bethent and Trade Representative Greer. The two sides agreed to hold a new round of China - US economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the trading margin ratio and daily price limit range for gold and silver futures. Starting from the closing settlement on Tuesday, October 21, 2025, the daily price limit range for gold and silver futures contracts will be adjusted to 14%, the margin ratio for hedging positions to 15%, and the margin ratio for general positions to 16% [1] Market Logic - There has been a historic short - squeeze in the London silver market recently. Extreme market conditions have magnified market volatility. After continuous rises, the spot price of London silver hit a record high of $54.468 per ounce on October 17 and then plunged by 6.7%. COMEX silver futures also fell sharply, while the decline of COMEX gold futures was relatively small. Shanghai gold and Shanghai silver also had significant pull - backs in night trading. The willingness to end the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the upcoming China - US economic and trade consultations are conducive to reducing short - term market risk - aversion sentiment [1] Trading Strategy - Gold and silver have risen continuously recently, accumulating many profit - taking positions. Short - term volatility has intensified, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]

早盘提示 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 10 月 20 日星期一 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 研究员： 张晓君 从业资格：F0242716 交易咨询资格：Z0011864 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 联系方式：0371-65617380 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 上周五夜盘玉米期货震荡偏弱，截至夜盘收盘2601合约 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Gold and silver have experienced significant price fluctuations recently. Due to the accumulation of many profit - taking positions after continuous rises, short - term volatility has intensified, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Market Conditions - COMEX gold futures fell 0.85% to $4267.90 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 5.01% to $50.63 per ounce. Shanghai gold closed down 1.27% at 973.88 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver fell 3.94% at 11748 yuan per kilogram [1] Important Information - As of October 17, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, increased by 12.59 tons from the previous day to 1047.21 tons. The holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, increased by 74.79 tons from the previous day to 15497.4 tons [1] - On October 17, the President of Ukraine met with the US President. Zelensky said he was willing to accept bilateral or trilateral talks, and Trump said the Russia - Ukraine conflict should end. Trump is about to meet with Putin in Budapest, Hungary [1] - On the morning of October 18, Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held a video call and agreed to hold a new round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations as soon as possible [1] Market Logic - There has been a historical short squeeze in the London silver market recently. Extreme market conditions have magnified market volatility. After continuous rises, the spot price of London silver hit a record high of $54.468 per ounce on October 17 and then plunged by 6.7%. COMEX silver futures also fell sharply, while the decline of COMEX gold futures was relatively small. The night sessions of Shanghai gold and Shanghai silver also had significant pull - backs [1] - The willingness to hold talks between Ukraine and the US and the upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin, as well as the agreement to hold a new round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations, are conducive to reducing short - term market risk - aversion sentiment [1] Trading Strategy - Due to the accumulation of many profit - taking positions after continuous rises in gold and silver recently, short - term volatility has intensified, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not explicitly provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Despite short - term market volatility, the expectations of corporate profit improvement and policy support are clear. In the short - term, the domestic demand sector may take the lead, while the technological revolution and manufacturing recovery form the long - term investment mainlines. A - shares are currently reasonably undervalued and attractive to foreign investors. The technology sector remains the most promising and certain area in the long - run, and short - term fluctuations do not hinder long - term optimism. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, the value - cycle indices of the two markets were consolidating, and the growth indices were adjusting. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1.93 trillion yuan, showing a shrinking volume and a continued decrease in selling pressure. The CSI 300 index closed at 4,618 points, up 12 points or 0.26%; the SSE 50 index closed at 3,019 points, up 17 points or 0.59%; the CSI 500 index closed at 7,231 points, down 62 points or - 0.86%; the CSI 1000 index closed at 7,401 points, down 81 points or - 1.09%. Among industry and theme ETFs, coal ETF, communication equipment ETF, energy ETF, bank ETF, and dividend state - owned enterprise ETF led the gains, while rare earth ETF, steel ETF, and robot 50ETF led the losses. Among the sector indices of the two markets, coal mining, insurance, national banks, coke processing, and oil and gas extraction indices led the gains, while rare metals, forestry, metal new materials, precious metals, and wind power equipment indices led the losses. The net inflow of settled funds in the SSE 50 index stock index futures was 1.5 billion yuan. [1] 3.2 Important Information - As of the end of September, China's M2 balance was 335.38 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.4%, 0.4 percentage points lower than at the end of last month. The balance of narrow - sense money (M1) was 113.15 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%, indicating accelerated monetary activity. - An investment fund AIP jointly established by BlackRock, NVIDIA, and Microsoft announced a $40 billion deal to acquire Aligned, a data center giant under Macquarie Asset Management, one of the largest data center transactions in history. - The demand for AI chips remains strong. TSMC's Q3 net profit reached a record high, exceeding expectations by 39%. TSMC's CEO said that AI demand remains strong and will be robust throughout 2025. - Morgan Stanley pointed out that high - quality electric vehicles have become the industry standard, and the real innovation opportunities in the automotive industry lie in the breakthrough of the AI ecosystem, proposing the "3A" opportunities of autonomous driving, AI embodiment, and AI data centers. - Goldman Sachs' chief global equity strategist said that although the valuation of the technology sector has risen, it has not reached the level of a historical bubble. The current rise of technology stocks is mainly driven by fundamental growth. - As of October 14, the total scale of gold - themed ETFs, including commodity - type and stock - type, was close to 210 billion yuan, attracting over 80 billion yuan of funds this year. Since October 9, the net inflow of gold - themed ETFs has exceeded 10 billion yuan. - The Fed's Beige Book showed that the employment level generally remained stable, but most regions reported that more employers were reducing their workforce through layoffs or natural attrition due to weak demand, economic uncertainty, and increased investment in AI. - Options trading linked to the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) showed that traders are betting that the Fed will cut interest rates by at least 50 basis points at its meeting later this month or in December. - The Fed's Standing Repurchase Facility (SRF) was suddenly used for $6.75 billion, the highest non - quarter - end level since the pandemic, exposing a rapid market funding gap and raising concerns about the next liquidity crisis. [1][2] 3.3 Market Logic - On Thursday, the value - cycle indices of the two markets were consolidating, and the growth indices were adjusting. On October 10, the net subscription amount of equity - type ETFs totaled 31.488 billion yuan, second only to April 7 and 8 this year. On October 13, over 20 billion yuan of funds entered the market, and the net subscription amount of equity - type ETFs was 24.614 billion yuan. Many securities firms said that despite short - term market volatility, the expectations of corporate profit improvement and policy support are clear. In the short - term, the domestic demand sector may take the lead, while the technological revolution and manufacturing recovery form the long - term investment mainlines. Many foreign institutions believe that the current valuation of A - shares is reasonably low, which is attractive for global diversified allocation and hedging against US dollar asset risks. [2] 3.4 Market Outlook - On Thursday, the value - cycle indices of the two markets were narrowly fluctuating, and the growth indices were adjusting, with the market in a defensive mode. The Fed chairman hinted at a normal interest rate cut in October, and the market is betting on a 50 - basis - point cut in December. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was raised to 7.10 yuan, indicating a continuous inflow of foreign capital into RMB assets. In the future, the technology sector remains the most promising and certain area, and short - term fluctuations do not hinder long - term optimism. Stock index futures long positions should be mainly allocated to the CSI 300 index. [2] 3.5 Trading Strategies - Stock index futures directional trading: The Fed chairman hinted at a normal interest rate cut in October. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was raised to 7.10 yuan, indicating a continuous inflow of foreign capital into RMB assets. The market is in a defensive state, and stock index futures long positions should be mainly allocated to the CSI 300 index. - Stock index option trading: Seize the opportunity to buy far - month deep - out - of - the - money call options on the CSI 300 index. [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The corn market this year is expected to be relatively stable with limited price fluctuations. The lower bound of the price range is supported by planting costs and farmers' selling sentiment, while the upper bound is determined by downstream inventory - building sentiment, grain substitution scale, and policy - related grain auction rhythm and intensity. In the short term, the price is expected to be weak before November; in the medium term, the decline is limited; in the long term, the upward potential is also limited [8][9] - The corn industry chain has a higher acceptance and more proficient use of corn futures and derivatives for risk management [10][11][12] - For corn futures, the short - term logic is about new - grain supply pressure and cost support; the medium - term is about new - season drivers and wide - range trading; the long - term is about import substitution and policy orientation. The trading strategy is to maintain a medium - and long - term range - trading approach and pay attention to low - buying opportunities [13][14] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. New and Old Corn Alternation: Focus on New - Season Corn - New - season corn in Heilongjiang is expected to have a stable and increasing yield this year, with an increase in single - yield and better quality compared to last year [4] - The corn planting cost in Heilongjiang has decreased this year, mainly due to the decline in land rent. The estimated new - grain planting cost at the port is about 2100 - 2150 yuan/ton [5] - The opening price of new - season corn in Heilongjiang has shown a high - opening and low - going trend. The market sentiment is cautious, and downstream enterprises are in a passive inventory - building stage. Some farmers will start to hold back if the price is too low [7] 2. Current Situation and Outlook of the Corn Market - The corn market price has shown a trend of rising first and then falling this year, with a wide - range operation. The international supply is under pressure, but the impact of imports on the domestic market is small. Domestic new - season corn is expected to be abundant, and the supply - demand gap depends on wheat substitution and policy - related grain sources. The demand from the breeding and deep - processing industries is weak [8] - The future corn market is expected to be relatively stable, with price fluctuations mainly affected by factors such as planting costs, farmers' selling sentiment, downstream inventory - building, grain substitution, and policy - related grain auctions [9] 3. Participation of Enterprises in Corn Futures and Derivatives - The corn industry chain has a high recognition of the price - discovery and hedging functions of corn futures. Enterprises use pricing models such as basis + fixed price, and the acceptance and use of basis pricing are relatively common [10][11] - All links in the corn industry chain have improved their acceptance and proficiency in using corn futures and derivatives for risk management, such as upstream farmers using hedging and insurance + futures, and downstream enterprises using selling hedging [11][12] 4. Corn Futures Views and Operation Suggestions - The short - term market logic is about new - grain supply pressure and the impact of bad weather in North China. The medium - term is about new - season drivers, and the long - term is about import substitution and policy orientation [13] - The trading strategy is to maintain a medium - and long - term range - trading approach, pay attention to low - buying opportunities around 2100 and below for the 2601 contract, and hold long positions lightly. The first pressure level is 2140, and the second is 2150 [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global economy is entering the top - region due to the US's continuous wrong policies [2] - After the key nodes at the end of October (trade conflicts, tech giants' earnings reports, Fed decisions), if the Nasdaq continues to rise, the market will enter the strong upward phase of the last stage of the bull market, but also the most dangerous top moment is approaching [1] 3. Summary According to Related Information Global Economic News - Fed Chair Powell hinted at a possible rate cut in October and a potential halt to balance - sheet reduction in the coming months [1] - The US bank raised its price forecasts for gold to $5000 per ounce and silver to $65 per ounce in 2026 [1] - Google's parent company Alphabet will invest $15 billion in India over five years to build an AI data - center hub [1][2] - OpenAI plans to invest up to $25 billion in Argentina to build a data - center hub [1] - Goldman Sachs will limit employee growth and cut some positions by the end of this year and launched the "OneGS 3.0" strategy [1] Chinese Economic News - China's September exports were $328.5 billion, up 8.3% year - on - year, and imports rose 7.4% year - on - year, with the growth rates hitting multi - month highs [2] - The RMB central parity rate against the US dollar was reported at 7.0995, up 26 points, the first time since last November [1][2] - According to the HSBC emerging market survey, China is the preferred stock investment market, and 100 surveyed institutions manage $423 billion of emerging - market assets [2] Tech - related News - Huawei announced the evolution and goals of its Ascend chips, with computing power leading Nvidia by over a year [2] - Alibaba is actively promoting 380 billion yuan of AI infrastructure construction and plans to increase investment [2] - Broadcom released the Thor Ultra network chip, strengthening its position in AI data - center network communication and competing with Nvidia [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global economy is entering the top - region due to the US's continuous wrong policies [2] - If the MSCI China Index drops to 74, it will get strong support and investors may buy on the dip. A - shares' current valuation is reasonably low, attractive to foreign investors for global diversification and hedging US dollar asset risks [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Information 3.1 Corporate Investment and Cooperation - JPMorgan Chase launches a ten - year $1.5 trillion "Safety and Resilience Initiative", planning to invest up to $1 billion in 27 sub - technologies of four major fields including supply - chain manufacturing, defense aviation, energy technology, and frontier technology [1] - OpenAI and Broadcom cooperate to launch custom chips with a total capacity of 10GW. OpenAI is responsible for design, and Broadcom will start development and deployment in the second half of 2026 [1] - Google will invest $9 billion in South Carolina by 2027 to expand existing data - center parks and build new sites to support cloud - computing and AI application growth [1] - OpenAI has signed agreements worth about $1 trillion with giants like Oracle, Infineon, and AMD, expecting over 30GW of computing - power support in the next decade [1] - Alibaba is actively promoting 380 billion yuan of AI infrastructure construction and plans to increase investment [2] 3.2 Market and Economic Data - China's September export value was $328.5 billion, with an 8.3% year - on - year increase, and imports had a 7.4% year - on - year increase, reaching a six - month high for exports and a 17 - month high for imports [1] - In the HSBC emerging - market survey, China is the top stock - investment market. 100 surveyed institutions manage $423 billion of emerging - market assets [2] 3.3 Industry Trends - The German auto industry is facing a large - scale lay - off wave due to the slow European new - energy transition (15% pure - electric vehicle penetration rate) and the rise of the Chinese supply chain [1] - A large amount of funds are flowing from currency and treasury bonds to alternative assets, which may just be the beginning [1] 3.4 Technological Competition - China's control of rare earths is a response to the US's restrictions on mature - process semiconductor equipment materials, which may disrupt the US's AI chip production and cause turmoil in US stocks [1][2] - Huawei's Ascend chips' computing power in "ultra - node + cluster" is more than one year ahead of NVIDIA [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the cotton in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock sector is bearish [1] 2) Core Viewpoints - Affected by the external environment, ICE cotton futures closed lower, with the main 12 - month contract settling at 63.59 cents, a decline of 0.39%. The purchase price of seed cotton remains cautious, with the mainstream price at 6.1 - 6.2 yuan per kilogram. Downstream textile enterprises maintain normal operation, but the orders in the peak season are insufficient. Overall, Zhengzhou cotton is in a state of oscillating and bottom - building [1] 3) Summary by Related Content [Market Review] - ICE December contract settled at 63.59, down 25 points; March at 65.26, down 34 points; May at 66.56, down 33 points, with about 44,000 contracts traded. Zhengzhou cotton's total trading volume was 424,737 contracts, with an open interest of 839,493 contracts. The settlement prices of January, May, and September contracts were 13,285 yuan/ton (down 70 yuan/ton), 13,325 yuan/ton (down 80 yuan/ton), and 13,510 yuan/ton (down 80 yuan/ton) respectively compared to the previous day [1] [Important Information] - On October 11, in Kashgar, Xinjiang, the basis of hand - picked new cotton of Double 29 quality with less than 1.7% impurity for the 2601 contract in Xinjiang warehouses was around 1200 - 1250 yuan/ton, and the pick - up price was 14,500 - 14,550 yuan/ton, stable compared to the previous day [1] - According to US Department of Commerce data, in August 2025, US retail sales of clothing and clothing accessories (seasonally adjusted) were $27.183 billion, an 8.27% year - on - year increase (the adjusted figure in the same period last year was $25.106 billion) and a 1.02% month - on - month increase (last month was $26.908 billion) [1] - The warm and dry weather in the southwestern and south - central cotton regions of the US promotes harvesting, while thunderstorms in the southeastern cotton region pose a threat to the quality of boll opening [1] - As of September 25, according to local Brazilian industry institutions, the cotton picking progress in Brazil was about 99.7%, and the processing progress was 46% [1] - On October 11, the spot price of cotton yarn was stable. According to feedback from inland textile enterprises, new orders are generally sluggish in October, and there is always downward pressure on cotton yarn prices. Enterprises have difficulty making profits, so the cotton consumption is in a state of contraction [1] [Market Logic] - Due to external environmental impacts, ICE US cotton futures closed lower. The purchase price of seed cotton is cautious, and although downstream textile enterprises maintain normal operation, the peak - season orders are insufficient, resulting in Zhengzhou cotton oscillating and building a bottom [1] [Trading Strategy] - Hold the previous at - the - money straddle options of the 01 contract [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the apple in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock sector is "Bullish" [1] 2) Core View of the Report - Apple futures prices have corrected, and the main contract has shifted. The closing price of the 2601 contract is 838 yuan/ton, down 1.21%. The new - season late Fuji large - scale trading still needs to wait for the coloring and ripening process, and the AP2601 contract long positions should be gradually taken profit [1] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Apple futures prices corrected, and the main contract shifted. The closing price of the 2601 contract was 838 yuan/ton, down 1.21% [1] Important Information - In Shandong, the price of bagged late Fuji 80 (flake red, first and second - grade) is 3.80 - 4.00 yuan/jin; 80 and above (flake red, general goods) is 3.00 - 3.50 yuan/jin; 80 and above third - grade is 2.50 - 2.80 yuan/jin; the price of striped 80 first and second - grade is 4.10 - 4.50 yuan/jin. In Shaanxi, the price of bagged late Fuji 70 starting semi - commodity is 4.70 - 4.80 yuan/jin, and the current price of late Fuji 75 starting general goods is about 4.00 yuan/jin. In Gansu, the price of late Fuji 75 and above mountain semi - commodity fruits in Renda Town is about 4.50 yuan/jin [1] Market Logic - In Shaanxi, although the rainfall has stopped, fruit farmers' picking is blocked. The redness of a small amount of trading goods is light, and a large amount of trading still needs to wait. The ordering of high - quality goods is basically over, and the price is stable. The price of general goods is chaotic and slightly weak. In Shandong, the late Fuji trading is not yet large - scale, and the redness is light. Some merchants go to Liaoning to purchase. Fruit farmers in Liaoning ask for high prices, and the supply of good goods is limited. In Gansu, the reservation of high - quality goods is basically over, and the trading of general goods is average. Shandong is still in the process of bag removal, and the mainstream trading is expected to start around the 12th. Overall, there is a game between fruit farmers' waiting and merchants' on - demand procurement [1] Trading Strategy - Gradually take profit on long positions in the AP2601 contract [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the log in the agriculture, forestry, and livestock sector is moderately bullish [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The domestic log market has shown a situation of stable supply and demand recently. The overall price trend is stable. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand shows a differentiated performance. As the peak - season demand is gradually released, the spot price has strong support, but the hedging pressure when the 11 - contract approaches the delivery month should be watched out for [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The log futures price declined. The closing price of the main 2511 contract was 803.0 yuan per cubic meter, a decrease of 2.19% [1] Important Information - The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day and down 10 yuan per cubic meter from the previous week; the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan per cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day and down 10 yuan per cubic meter from the previous week [1] - As of August 15, the weekly arrival volume of domestic softwood logs was 33.9 million cubic meters, a decrease of 16.65 million cubic meters from the previous week [1] - The average daily outbound volume of softwood logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 6.33 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.09 million cubic meters from the previous week [1] Market Logic - The domestic log market shows a stable supply - demand situation. The prices in Shandong and Jiangsu are stable. The supply is expected to increase to 55.05 million cubic meters due to holiday factors. The demand is differentiated: the daily shipment in Shandong has slightly decreased, and the purchase volume in Jiangsu has declined. The inventory in Jiangsu decreased by 6.97 million cubic meters, while that in Shandong increased slightly by 0.8 million cubic meters [1] Trading Strategy - The log 11 - contract will fluctuate [1]