Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 13 日星期二 研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 昨日日盘锰硅主力合约 SM2603 收于 5930，环比日盘开盘上涨 0.44%；硅铁主力合约 SF2603 收于 5698，环比日盘开盘上涨 1.17%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、河北省衡水市、保定市、廊坊市、沧州市自 2026 年 1 月 12 日 12 时起，邯郸市自 2026 | | | | | 年 1 月 12 日 13 时起，启动重污染天气Ⅱ级应急响应。聊城市于 1 月 12 日 20 时发布重 | | | | | 污染天气橙色预警，并于 1 月 13 日 20 时启动Ⅱ级应急响应。 | | | 硅铁、 | | 2、大商所拟修改《大连商品 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The overall investment ratings for different sectors are as follows: the sugar sector is rated as "volatile" [1]; the jujube sector is rated as "volatile" [4]; the rubber and synthetic rubber sectors in the energy and chemical industry are rated as "volatile" [5] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The global sugar supply in the 2025/26 season may have a surplus of 470,000 tons, and both the domestic and foreign sugar markets are expected to be volatile. The SR605 contract is advised to hold existing short - positions, and new investors can short on rallies. Options can consider a double - selling strategy [1] - The jujube futures price has slightly rebounded from the bottom, but there are still insufficient long - term positive factors. Investors are advised to take a bearish view and be cautious when bottom - fishing. The CJ605 contract is recommended to short on rallies [4] - The natural rubber market has a mixed fundamental situation, with overseas raw material prices remaining firm and domestic inventories in Qingdao continuing to accumulate. The synthetic rubber market has supply pressure. Both are expected to be volatile. For the RU, NR, and BR contracts, a high - selling and low - buying strategy is recommended [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar Market Review - The SR605 contract closed at 5,285 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decline of 0.06%, and the night - session closed at 5,257 yuan/ton. The SR609 contract closed at 5,291 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.15%, and the night - session closed at 5,268 yuan/ton [1] Important Information - As of January 8, 2026, in the 2025/26 season in India's Maharashtra state, 197 sugar mills were in operation, 2 less than the same period last season. The crushed cane was 63.292 million tons, an increase of 19.878 million tons. The sugar production was 5.6297 million tons with an average sugar yield of 8.89% [1] - As of the week ending January 7, the sugar waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports was 1.5823 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 165,300 tons or 11.66% [1] - As of January 7, 2026, in the 2025/26 season in Thailand, the cumulative crushed cane was 16.9782 million tons, a decrease of 5.765 million tons or 25.35% compared to the same period last year. The sugar production was 1.5309 million tons, a decrease of 567,300 tons or 27.03% [1] - Yesterday, the number of sugar warrants in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 8,939, a day - on - day increase of 2,934 [1] Market Logic - Overseas: After a small rebound, the ICE raw sugar price has fallen again. The global sugar supply in the 25/26 season may have a surplus of 470,000 tons, and the overseas sugar market may be volatile [1] - Domestic: Zhengzhou sugar has been consolidating horizontally. The night - session was slightly weaker due to the impact of raw sugar. There is strong resistance at the 5,300 integer mark, and the market is expected to be range - bound [1] Trading Strategy - Hold existing short - positions in the SR605 contract, pay attention to the resistance range of 5,300 - 5,315. New investors can short on rallies. Consider a double - selling strategy for options [1] Jujube Market Review - The CJ605 contract closed at 9,160 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.11%. The CJ609 contract closed at 9,335 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.48% [4] Important Information - The physical inventory of 36 sample points last week was 15,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 349 tons or 2.23%, and a year - on - year increase of 41.27% [4] - The average daily arrival of goods at the Guangdong Ruyifang market last week was 6.20 trucks, an increase of 0.80 trucks compared to the previous week. The market supply is sufficient, and the price dropped slightly by 0.20 yuan/kg [4] - Yesterday, the wholesale price of premium jujubes in Hebei was 9.49 yuan/kg, a day - on - day decrease of 0.03 yuan/kg [4] - Yesterday, the number of arrival trucks at the Guangdong Ruyifang market was 4, a day - on - day decrease of 2 [4] - Yesterday, the number of jujube warrants was 2,820, a day - on - day increase of 297 [4] Market Logic - The jujube futures price has slightly risen from the bottom. As the supply - side negative factors are digested, the market focuses on pre - festival stocking demand. However, there are still insufficient long - term positive factors, and the market may not have much room for a large - scale rebound [4] Trading Strategy - Short the CJ605 contract on rallies [4] Rubber and Synthetic Rubber Market Review - As of January 12, the RU2605 contract closed at 16,130 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.62%. The NR2602 contract closed at 13,100 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.46%. The BR2602 contract closed at 12,070 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.46% [5] Important Information - Yesterday, the price of raw rubber latex in Thailand was 57 Thai baht/kg, and the cup lump price was 52.2 Thai baht/kg. The price of Yunnan rubber blocks was 13,200 yuan/ton [5] - As of January 11, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 568,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 19,800 tons or 3.62% [5] - This week, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.78%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.97 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 55.50%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.43 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.37 percentage points [5] - The price of butadiene in Shandong's central region was around 9,450 - 9,500 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China was around 9,000 - 9,100 yuan/ton [5] - The prices of cis - polybutadiene rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market continued to fall. The price of Daqing BR9000 in the Shandong market dropped 50 yuan/ton to 11,900 yuan/ton, and the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene 1502 dropped 100 yuan/ton to 12,100 yuan/ton [5] Market Logic - Natural rubber: The futures price rebounded slightly yesterday. Overseas raw material prices are firm, but Qingdao's inventory is accumulating. The short - term fundamentals are mixed, and the market mainly focuses on the impact of macro funds [5] - Synthetic rubber: The upstream butadiene price is strong, but there is supply pressure on cis - polybutadiene rubber. The BR futures price has encountered strong resistance near the previous high and has corrected. The market focuses on the impact of overseas situations on the energy and chemical sector [5] Trading Strategy - For the RU contract, pay attention to the range of 15,750 - 16,400 yuan/ton; for the NR contract, pay attention to the range of 12,700 - 13,300 yuan/ton; for the BR contract, pay attention to the range of 11,900 - 12,400 yuan/ton. Adopt a high - selling and low - buying strategy [5]

研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 13 日星期二 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | 铁矿: 【行情复盘】 周一铁矿收涨。夜盘收跌。 【重要资 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The steel market may trade the winter storage logic in advance and experience a rebound. The rebound space depends on the intensity of winter storage [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Market Review - On Monday, the night - session prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil showed a mixed trend, with rebar and hot - rolled coil rising and falling respectively at night [1] Important News - Recently, Hebei, Jiangsu, and Shanxi released the list of key construction projects in 2026, including 63 projects related to the steel industry [1] - In December 2025, a total of 482 projects started across the country, with a total investment of approximately 534.092 billion yuan; the total investment in 2025 was approximately 27.52 trillion yuan [1] - Minister Li Lecheng of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology stated that in 2026, efforts will be focused on four aspects: "stability", "expansion", "innovation", and "increase" to maintain the stable growth of the industrial economy [1] - Some cities in Hebei and Liaocheng launched heavy - pollution weather emergency responses [1] Market Logic - On Monday, steel prices rose in some areas. The supply of the five major steel products this period was 818,590 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7,380 tons. Among them, the production and inventory of rebar increased, the production of hot - rolled coil increased, and the inventory decreased. Overall, steel supply increased, demand decreased, and inventory increased [1] Trading Strategy - The market may trade the winter storage logic in advance and experience a rebound. The rebound space depends on the intensity of winter storage [1]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 13 日星期二 研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 昨日日盘锰硅主力合约 SM2603 收于 5930，环比日盘开盘上涨 0.44%；硅铁主力合约 SF2603 收于 5698，环比日盘开盘上涨 1.17%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、河北省衡水市、保定市、廊坊市、沧州市自 2026 年 1 月 12 日 12 时起，邯郸市自 2026 | | | | | 年 1 月 12 日 13 时起，启动重污染天气Ⅱ级应急响应。聊城市于 1 月 12 日 20 时发布重 | | | | | 污染天气橙色预警，并于 1 月 13 日 20 时启动Ⅱ级应急响应。 | | | 硅铁、 | | 2、大商所拟修改《大连商品 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 13 日星期二 研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 周一尿素主力合约 2605 价格上涨 4 元至 1783 元/吨，华中主流地区现货价格下跌 10 元至 1740 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓增加 5161 手至 23.39 万手，空头持仓增 加 6011 手至 25.4 万手。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、供应方面，尿素行业日产 20.2 万吨，较上一工作日增加 0.18 万吨；较去年同期 | | | | | 增加 2.79 万吨；今日开工率 85.8%，较去年同期 81.2%回升 4.5%。 | | | | | 2、库存方面，中国尿素企业总库存量 102.22 万吨，较上周增加 0.30 万吨，环比增 ...

联系方式：0371-65617380 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 昨日夜盘玉米期货震荡偏强，截至夜盘收盘主力合约2603合约涨幅0.75%，收于229 | | | | | 3元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、中国粮油商务网数据显示昨日深加工企业收购价整体稳定。东北地区企业主流 | | | | | 收购价2163元/吨；华北地区企业收购均价2254元/吨。 | | | | | 2、中国粮油商务网数据显示昨日南北港口价格继续走强。锦州港15%水二等玉米收 | | | | | 购价2275-2280元/吨，较上周五涨20元/吨；蛇口港玉米成交价2420元/吨，较上周 | | | | | 五持平。 | | | | | 3、大商所数据显示，截至1月12日玉米期货仓单数量较前一交易日增1520手，共计 | | | | | 38075手。 | | | | | 4、美国农业部1月份供需报告调高美玉米产量和库存，CBOT玉米承压下跌。2025/ | | | 玉米 | 区 ...

研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 联系方式：liuyang18036@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 周一国债期货主力合约开盘涨跌参半，早盘小幅冲高，午后略有回落，临近尾盘再 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 度拉升，截至收盘 | 30 | 年期国债期货主力合约 | TL2603 | 上涨 | 0.30%，10 | 年期 | T2603 | 上 | 涨 | 0.06%，5 | 年期 | TF2603 | 上涨 | 0.05%，2 | 年期 | TS2603 | 持平。 | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1、公开市场：周一央行开展了 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 Morning session notice 联系方式：17803978037 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | ICE3 月合约结算价 64.91 涨 50 点，5 月 66.44 涨 53 点，7 月 67.86 涨 55 点；成 交约 6.6 万手。 | | | | | 郑棉总成交 794361 持仓 1176485。结算价 1 月 14650，5 月 14565，9 月 14730。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、1 月 4 日南疆巴州区域纺企采购 31 级双 29 含杂 2.8%以内机采新棉疆内库 2605 | | | | | 合约基差成交价 950-1050 元/吨，提货价在 15500-15650 元/吨，较前一日持平。 | | | | | 2、据统计，截至 2025 年 12 月 18 日，美国累计净签约出口 2025/26 年度棉花 148.8 | | | | | 万吨，达到年度预期出口量的 56.03%，累计 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the energy and chemical sector (pure benzene) is "oscillating" [2] Core View of the Report - Amidst continuous global geopolitical disturbances, crude oil prices have stabilized and rebounded. This week, the pure benzene inventory at Jiangsu ports continued to increase, while the downstream demand-side operating rates improved. In the short term, the pure benzene price will experience wide fluctuations, with the reference range for the 03 contract being 5450 - 5630 yuan/ton. Future focus should be on port arrivals and the future transaction prices in the US dollar-denominated pure benzene market [2] Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - On Monday night, the price of the main contract futures BZ2603 dropped by 12 yuan to 5523 yuan/ton. The spot price in the mainstream East China region was 5420 yuan/ton (a week-on-week increase of 85), and in Shandong, it was 5315 yuan/ton (a week-on-week increase of 92). In terms of positions, long positions increased by 1325 lots to 20300 lots, and short positions increased by 698 lots to 25500 lots [2] Important Information - Supply: In December, the domestic pure benzene production was 1.934 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%. In November, the pure benzene import volume was 459,600 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 7.4%. The 2025 November import volume was 459,624.998 tons, with a month-on-month decline of 7.48% and a year-on-year increase of 5.93%. The cumulative import volume was 5.071144069 million tons, a 33.61% increase compared to the same period last year [2] - Inventory: The total commercial inventory of the Jiangsu pure benzene port samples was 324,000 tons, up 6000 tons from the previous inventory of 318,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.89%. It was 149,700 tons higher than the inventory of 174,300 tons in the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 85.89%. From January 5th to January 11th, the estimated arrivals were about 36,000 tons, and the pickups were about 30,000 tons [2] - Demand: The styrene operating rate was 70.9%, a month-on-month increase of 0.4%; the phenol operating rate was 85%, a month-on-month increase of 5%; the caprolactam operating rate was 74.2%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.1%; the aniline operating rate was 61.3%, a month-on-month increase of 1.5%; the adipic acid operating rate was 67.6%, a month-on-month increase of 0.6%. Caprolactam factories started self-disciplinary production cuts, and there was an expected reduction in monthly pure benzene demand from December to January. The second line of Guangxi Hengyi's caprolactam was put into operation [2] - International Oil Prices: Due to the ongoing instability in the Iranian situation and potential supply risks, international oil prices rose. The NYMEX crude oil futures 02 contract increased by 0.38 dollars/barrel to 59.50 dollars/barrel, a month-on-month increase of 0.64%; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 03 contract increased by 0.53 dollars/barrel to 63.87 dollars/barrel, a month-on-month increase of 0.84%. The Chinese INE crude oil futures 2603 contract rose 9.9 to 436.8 yuan/barrel, and in the night session, it rose 0.2 to 437 yuan/barrel [2] - Other News: On January 11th, it was reported that the US District of Columbia Federal Prosecutor's Office had launched a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, regarding the renovation project of the Fed's Washington headquarters building and whether Powell lied to Congress about the project's scope [2] Market Logic - With continuous global geopolitical disturbances, crude oil prices have stabilized and rebounded. This week, the pure benzene inventory at Jiangsu ports continued to increase, while the downstream demand-side operating rates improved. In the short term, the pure benzene price will experience wide fluctuations, with the reference range for the 03 contract being 5450 - 5630 yuan/ton. Future focus should be on port arrivals and the future transaction prices in the US dollar-denominated pure benzene market [2] Trading Strategy - Reduce long positions and wait and see [2]