Morning session notice 早盘提示 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 昨日焦煤主力合约 Jm2605 收于 1191.0，环比日盘开盘下跌 3.8%；焦炭主力合 J2605 收 于 1，环比日盘开盘下跌 1.41%。昨日夜盘，焦煤主力合约 Jm2605 收于 1202.0，环比日 | | | | | 盘收盘上涨 0.92%。焦炭主力合约 J2605 收于 1740. ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 COMEX 黄金期货跌 0.44%报 4594.40 美元/盎司，COMEX 白银期货涨 2.08%报 86.86 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 美元/盎司。沪金上涨 0.14%报 1031.0 元/克，沪银上涨 4.14%报 21943.0 元/千克。 【重要资讯】 1、截至 1 月 13 日，全球最大黄金 ETF--SPDR Gold Trust 持仓较上日增加 3.43 吨， 当前持仓量为 1074.23 吨。全球最大白银 ETF--iShares Silver Trust 持仓较上日 | | | | | 减少 26.79 吨，当前持仓量为 16321.16 吨。 | | | | | 2、据 CME"美联储观察"：美联储 1 月降息 25 个基点的概率为 2.8%，维持利率不 | | | | | 变的概率为 97.2%。到 3 月累计降息 25 个基点的概率为 26.8%，维持利率不变的概 率为 72.5%，累计降息 50 个基点的概率为 0.7 ...

研究员：吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周二瓶片主力价格上涨 | 96 | 元至 | 6176 | 元/吨。华东水瓶级瓶片价格 | 6100 | 元/吨（-10）， | 华南瓶片价格 | 6150 | 元/吨（+0）。持仓方面，多头持仓减少 | 2077 | 手至 | 6.42 | 万手， | | | | 空头持仓减少 | 1768 | 手至 | 6.66 | 万手。 | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | | | | | | | | 1、供应和成本利润方面，本周国内聚酯瓶片产量为 | 33.47 | 万吨，环比-0.06 | 万吨。 | 国内聚酯瓶片产能利用率周均值为 | 72.27%，环比-1.01；聚酯瓶片生产成本 | 5592 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pure benzene in the energy and chemical sector is bullish [2] Core View of the Report - Global geopolitical disturbances are ongoing, with crude oil prices rebounding significantly overnight. This week, the pure benzene inventory at Jiangsu ports continued to increase, while the downstream demand-side saw improved operations. In the short term, the pure benzene price will fluctuate in a wide range with a bullish trend. The reference range for the 03 contract is 5480 - 5750 yuan/ton. Future focus should be on the port arrival volume and the future transaction prices in the US dollar pure benzene market [2] Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - On Tuesday night, the price of the main contract futures BZ2603 rose by 123 yuan to 5679 yuan/ton. The spot price in the mainstream area of East China was 5455 yuan/ton (a month-on-month increase of 50), and the spot price in Shandong was 5325 yuan/ton (a month-on-month increase of 10). In terms of positions, the number of long positions increased by 1325 to 20,300 hands, and the number of short positions increased by 698 to 25,500 hands [2] Important Information - Supply: In December, the domestic pure benzene output was 1.934 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%. In November, the pure benzene import volume was 459,600 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 7.4% [2] - Inventory: The total commercial inventory of the pure benzene port samples in Jiangsu was 324,000 tons, an increase of 6,000 tons compared to the previous inventory of 318,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.89%; compared to the inventory of 174,300 tons in the same period last year, the inventory increased by 149,700 tons, a year-on-year increase of 85.89%. From January 5th to January 11th, the incompletely - counted arrivals were about 36,000 tons, and the pick - ups were about 30,000 tons [2] - Demand: The styrene operating rate was 70.9%, a month-on-month increase of 0.4%; the phenol operating rate was 85%, a month-on-month increase of 5%; the caprolactam operating rate was 74.2%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.1%; the aniline operating rate was 61.3%, a month-on-month increase of 1.5%; the adipic acid operating rate was 67.6%, a month-on-month increase of 0.6%. Caprolactam factories started self - disciplined production cuts, and there may be a reduction in the monthly pure benzene demand from December to January. The second production line of Guangxi Hengyi's caprolactam was put into operation. Yesterday in Shandong, about 2,000 tons were counted, with a low end of 5300 and a high end of 5345 [2] - Import Data: In November 2025, China's pure benzene monthly import volume was 459,624.998 tons, with a cumulative import volume of 5,071,144.069 tons. The monthly import value was 323.069632 million US dollars, and the monthly average import price was 702.90 US dollars/ton. The import volume decreased by 7.48% month - on - month and increased by 5.93% year - on - year. The cumulative import volume increased by 33.61% compared to the same period last year [2] - Oil Price: The instability in Iran has not been completely eliminated, and the potential supply risks continue, leading to a rise in international oil prices. The NYMEX crude oil futures 02 contract rose 1.65 US dollars/barrel to 61.15 US dollars/barrel, a month-on-month increase of 2.77%; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 03 contract rose 1.60 US dollars/barrel to 65.47 US dollars/barrel, a month-on-month increase of 2.51%. China's INE crude oil futures 2603 contract rose 2.6 to 439.4 yuan/barrel, and rose 12.2 to 451.6 yuan/barrel at night [2] - Geopolitical Event: Trump ruled out the possibility of negotiating with Iran, stating that "all meetings with Iranian officials have been cancelled." His tougher stance on Iran has increased market concerns about supply disruptions from OPEC's fourth - largest oil - producing country and possible US intervention, causing oil prices to climb to a two - month high [2] Market Logic - The price of pure benzene will fluctuate in a wide range with a bullish trend in the short term. Future focus should be on the port arrival volume and the future transaction prices in the US dollar pure benzene market [2] Trading Strategy - Adopt a bullish approach [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for methanol in the energy and chemical industry is bullish [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The methanol market faces a situation of weak current reality but strong future expectations due to unstable geopolitical situation in the Middle East, concerns about methanol exports, a significant rebound in crude oil prices, inventory accumulation in ports and inland areas last week, expected reduction in imported arrivals after mid - January, and restart plans for olefin plants. It is expected to fluctuate broadly and strongly in the short term, with the 05 contract reference range of 2240 - 2350. The recommended trading strategy is to hold long positions [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Tuesday night, the futures price of the main contract 2605 rose 37 yuan to 2299 yuan/ton, while the spot price of methanol in the mainstream East - China region fell 3 yuan to 2257 yuan/ton. Long positions decreased by 14,056 lots to 445,000 lots, and short positions decreased by 15,882 lots to 607,000 lots [2] Important Information - Supply: The domestic methanol operating rate is 91.4%, a month - on - month increase of 1.1%. The overseas methanol operating rate is 59.4%, a month - on - month increase of 1.8% [2] - Inventory: The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 1.5372 million tons, an increase of 4.08 tons from the previous period. In the East - China region, inventory increased by 57,200 tons; in the South - China region, inventory decreased by 16,400 tons. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 447,700 tons, an increase of 25,100 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 5.94% [2] - Demand: The signing volume of northwest methanol enterprises is 46,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 47,800 tons. The pending orders of sample enterprises are 237,500 tons, an increase of 29,500 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 14.16%. The olefin operating rate is 89.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.6%; the methyl chloride operating rate is 75.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.8%; the acetic acid operating rate is 76.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.7%; the formaldehyde operating rate is 67.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6% [2] - Import: In November 2025, China's methanol import volume was 1.4176 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12.09%, and the average import price was $259.09/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.06%. The largest import volume came from Saudi Arabia at 344,900 tons, with an average import price of $261.53/ton. From January to November 2025, China's cumulative methanol import volume was 12.6969 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.60% [2] - Geopolitical: Trump ruled out the possibility of negotiating with Iran, and his tougher stance on Iran raised concerns about supply disruptions from OPEC's fourth - largest oil - producing country and potential US intervention, causing oil prices to climb to a two - month high [2] Market Logic - Unstable geopolitical situation in the Middle East may affect methanol exports, combined with a significant rebound in crude oil prices. After inventory accumulation in ports and inland areas last week, imported arrivals are expected to decrease after mid - January, and olefin plants have restart plans. So methanol faces weak current situation but strong future expectations, and will fluctuate broadly and strongly in the short term [2] Trading Strategy - Hold long positions [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the energy and chemical industry (urea) is "oscillating slightly bullish" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term urea price is expected to oscillate slightly stronger, with the 05 contract reference range between 1730 - 1830 yuan/ton. The recommended trading strategy is to sell put options [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - On Tuesday, the price of the main urea contract 2605 fell by 2 yuan to 1774 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the central China mainstream area was 1740 yuan/ton. Long - position holdings decreased by 1904 lots to 229,000 lots, and short - position holdings decreased by 6890 lots to 246,000 lots [1] Important Information - Supply: The daily output of the urea industry is 202,000 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons from the previous working day and 279,000 tons from the same period last year. The current operating rate is 85.8%, a 4.5% increase from 81.2% in the same period last year [1] - Inventory: The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 1.0222 million tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from last week, a 0.29% month - on - month increase. The sample inventory at urea ports is 140,000 tons, a decrease of 32,000 tons month - on - month [1] - Demand: The operating rate of compound fertilizers is 37.7%, a 1.6% month - on - month decrease, and the operating rate of melamine is 58.5%, a 3.1% month - on - month decrease [1] - Tender: On January 2, India's NFL held a urea import tender, receiving 26 suppliers with a total bid volume of 3.62 million tons, including 1.59 million tons on the east coast and 2.02 million tons on the west coast. The lowest quotes were from Koch, at CFR426.8 dollars/ton on the east coast and 424.8 dollars/ton on the west coast [1] - Import and Export: In November 2025, urea imports were 197.77 tons, a 135.71% month - on - month increase; the average import price was 1107.41 dollars/ton, a 278.44% month - on - month increase. In the same month, urea exports were 601,800 tons, a 49.95% month - on - month decrease; the average export price was 424.76 dollars/ton, a 50.80% month - on - month decrease [1] - Other News: According to CCTV News, on January 11, the US District of Columbia Federal Prosecutor's Office launched a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Powell regarding the renovation project of the Fed's Washington headquarters and whether he lied to Congress about the project scope [1] Market Logic - Last week, the inventory of urea enterprises increased slightly. The lowest ex - factory price of mainstream urea factories over the weekend was 1670 - 1700 yuan/ton. The release of the Indian tender price is positive for the international market, but there is no clear news about new domestic export quotas [1] Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to sell put options [1]

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 14 日 星期三 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、三位前美联储主席以及在民主党和共和党政府中任职过的四位前美国财政部 | | | | | 长，强烈谴责美国司法部对现任美联储主席鲍威尔展开调查，称此举将削弱美联储 | | | | | 的独立性。声明同样由一批跨党派的前白宫经济顾问签署。 | | | | | 2、特朗普频繁表达对高法关税裁决结果的担忧。他表示，如果做出对美国不利的 | | | | | 关税裁决，美国将要面临实际金额数千亿美元的赔偿。这还不包括政府和相关公司 | | | | | 为避免支付关税而对建设工厂和设备进行投资所需的"偿还"金额。 | | | | | 3、芝商所发布通知，根据对市场波动性的正常审查，为确保充足的抵押品覆盖， | | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that the coking coal and coke in the black sector will show a range - bound trend. Although there was a slight correction in the black sector during the night session yesterday, the coking coal and coke are expected to have an oscillating market during today's daytime session [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Yesterday, the main contract of coking coal Jm2605 closed at 1238.0, up 3.55% from the opening of the daytime session; the main contract of coke J2605 closed at 1770.0, up 1.26% from the opening of the daytime session. During the night session, Jm2605 closed at 1213.5, down 1.98% from the daytime close, and J2605 closed at 1754.0, down 0.9% from the daytime close [2]. 3.2 Important News - Multiple cities in Hebei and Liaocheng launched or announced the launch of heavy - pollution weather level - II emergency responses between January 12 - 13, 2026 [2]. - The Dalian Commodity Exchange plans to modify the iron ore futures contracts and business rules, adjusting the reference standards for inspection methods in the iron ore delivery quality standards [2]. - On January 12, some coking enterprises in Inner Mongolia announced a 50 - yuan - per - ton price increase for secondary and tertiary coke starting from January 13, 2026 [2]. 3.3 Market Logic - Coking coal prices rose on Monday. Last week, the speculation of supply - side production restrictions coincided with the downstream restocking demand, driving the spot auction prices to stabilize and rebound. Last week, the molten iron output rebounded to 230,000 tons. After four consecutive rounds of coke price cuts, steel mills saw some profit margins, and with the arrival of restocking demand, coke initiated the first round of price increase, but the mainstream market has not responded yet. The fundamentals of coking coal and coke showed signs of recovery over the weekend, which briefly boosted market sentiment [2]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - Considering the slight correction in the black sector during the night session yesterday, the coking coal and coke are expected to have an oscillating market during today's daytime session [2].

更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 13 日星期二 Morning session notice 早盘提示 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 周一夜盘主力合约 | 2605 | 期货价格下跌 | 31 | 元至 | 2236 | 元/吨，华东主流地区甲醇现货 | | | | | | | | 价格上涨 | 18 | 元至 | 2260 | 元/吨。持仓方面，多头持仓增加 | 31239 | 手至 | 46.19 | 万手，空 | 头持仓增加 | 45607 | 手至 | 62.6 | 万手。 | | 【重要资讯】 | 1、供应方面，国内甲醇开工率 | 91.4%，环比+1.1%。海外甲醇开工率 | 59.4%，环比+1.8%。 | | | | | | ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The main logic in 2026 is that the increase in supply is coming to an end, and the call for capacity reduction has been sounded, with the market waiting for verification [2][5][9] - The pig price in 2026 is expected to show different trends in different quarters, with potential fluctuations and limited upside space in the second half of the year Group 3: Summary by Directory 2026 Q1 Pig Price Forecast - The pig price in Q1 2026 may rise first and then fall. Before the Spring Festival, the national average pig price high is expected to be between 12.5 - 13 yuan/kg; after the Spring Festival, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand will pressure the pig price to weaken again, with the low point of the national average pig price expected to be between 10.5 - 11.5 yuan/kg [2][7] - Supply: The number of newborn piglets from January - September 2025 increased month - on - month (only decreased in July), corresponding to an increasing trend in the number of pig slaughter before March 2026. The number of newborn piglets in October and November 2025 decreased month - on - month by 1% and 0.8% respectively, corresponding to a relief in supply pressure from April 2026 [6] - Demand: It is currently the traditional peak season for pork consumption. The seasonal consumption increment of southern cured meat still exists but with a decreased growth rate. Before the Spring Festival, the consumption in the north is expected to be strong while that in the south is weak. After the Spring Festival, it will enter the traditional consumption off - season [6] 2026 Q2 Pig Price Forecast - In Q2 2026, pig supply is expected to form an inflection point, and the pig price may stop falling, stabilize, and start to recover, with the national average pig price expected to be between 11 - 12.5 yuan/kg [2][8] - The number of piglets in October 2025 decreased month - on - month by 1%, corresponding to a weakening of the pig slaughter pressure in April 2026. The market expects a slight month - on - month decline in the number of piglets in November 2025 [8] 2026 H2 Pig Price Forecast - In the second half of 2026, the pig price is expected to strengthen but with limited upside space. In Q3 2026, it may show a phased seasonal upward trend, and the upward space depends on the impact of winter diseases, with the national monthly average pig price expected to be between 12 - 13.5 yuan/kg. The pig price in Q4 2026 depends on the sow inventory from December 2025 to February 2026, which cannot be predicted by current data [3][9] - Pig supply is composed of three dimensions: sow inventory, production efficiency, and slaughter weight. If the sow inventory remains above 39 million heads and the industry average production efficiency continues to improve in the coming months, it will limit the upside space for the pig price in the second half of 2026 [3][9][10] - It is recommended that breeding enterprises conduct sell - hedging in the far - month contracts of live - hog futures when the prices rise to lock in breeding profits in advance [3][10]