1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - For the vegetable oil market, due to Argentina's zero - tariff export of soybeans and derivatives, existing short positions in vegetable oils should gradually take profits, and new positions should wait for buying opportunities. Traders can place price - setting orders. For the double - meal market, short positions in double - meals should take profits and exit, and those not yet entered the market should wait and see for buying points after stabilization [1][2][3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents Vegetable Oil Market Market Conditions - On September 23, affected by Argentina's zero - tariff export of soybean series, global vegetable oil futures prices tumbled. The main contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all decreased in price and positions, with the main soybean oil contract Y2601 closing at 8086 yuan/ton, down 3.35% day - on - day [1]. Important Information - International oil prices rose on September 23 due to the impasse in the agreement to restart Iraqi Kurdish oil exports. - The US EPA plans to redistribute the biofuel blending obligations exempted by the Small Refinery Exemption (SRE) program to large refineries, with two main options of 50% and 100% quota distribution. The public comment period lasts until the end of October, and a decision may be made in late November or December 25. - In August 2025, China's palm oil imports were 340,000 tons, a 33.60% increase from the previous month and a 15.17% decrease from the same period last year. - Argentina temporarily abolished export taxes on soybeans and their derivatives, corn, and wheat until October 31 or until the export volume reaches $7 billion. - Canada launched a $370 million biofuel production incentive program to boost domestic rapeseed consumption. - From September 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 7.89% month - on - month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield down 6.57% and the oil extraction rate (OER) down 0.25%. - From September 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 1,010,032 tons, an 8.7% increase from August 1 - 20. Exports to China were 30,400 tons, lower than the previous month. - As of the 38th weekend of 2025, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils was 2.6773 million tons, a 1.68% week - on - week decrease and a 22.80% year - on - year increase [1][2]. Market Logic - Externally, Argentina's cancellation of soybean oil and meal export tariffs and the continuous reduction of non - commercial net long positions in CFTC soybean oil led to the decline of US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil. Domestically, soybean supply is sufficient, oil mill operating rates are around 65%, and soybean oil supply is abundant. Rapeseed oil is still in the process of inventory reduction, and palm oil is in the process of inventory accumulation [2]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Existing short positions in vegetable oils should gradually take profits, and new positions should wait for buying opportunities. Traders can place price - setting orders. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract. - Arbitrage: No relevant arbitrage strategy is provided [2]. Double - Meal Market Market Conditions - On September 23, affected by Argentina's zero - tariff export of soybeans and derivatives, double - meal futures prices tumbled. The main contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal all decreased in price and increased in positions, with the main soybean meal contract M2601 closing at 3250 yuan/ton, down 3.49% day - on - day [2]. Important Information - Argentina temporarily abolished export taxes on soybeans and their derivatives, corn, and wheat until October 31 or until the export volume reaches $7 billion. - As of the week ending September 18, 2025, US soybean export inspections were 484,116 tons, at the lower end of market expectations, a 41% decrease from the previous week and a 3% decrease from the same period last year. - As of September 21, the US soybean harvest was 9% complete, with a good - to - excellent rate of 61%. - Brazil's soybean exports in September 2025 are estimated to be 7.43 million tons, a 44% increase from the same period last year. - As of the 38th weekend of 2025, the domestic imported soybean inventory was 770,800 tons, an increase from the previous week, and the imported rapeseed inventory was 66,000 tons, a decrease from the previous week. The domestic soybean meal inventory was 124,600 tons, an increase from the previous week [2][3]. Market Logic - Externally, Argentina's zero - tariff policy on soybean series affected the global soybean market, but the continuous decline of US soybeans is limited. Domestically, oil mill spot prices have decreased, and near - month basis has increased. The terminal's willingness to replenish inventory at low prices has improved. Rapeseed meal spot transactions are limited, and institutional long - short games have intensified [3]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short positions in double - meals should take profits and exit, and wait for buying points after stabilization. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract. - Arbitrage: Consider a long - short spread trade for soybean meal 1 - 5 contracts. Temporarily exit on September 23 and wait for subsequent stabilization [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the apple sector in the agricultural, forestry, and livestock industry is "Bullish" [1] Core View - Apple futures prices have corrected, and the main contract has shifted. The closing price of the 2601 contract is 8,288 yuan/ton, down 0.04%. The market focus is shifting from the supply side to demand verification. It is recommended that investors wait and see and choose the opportunity to operate after the new season's output is clear and the consumption peak season starts [1] Summary by Directory Market Review - Apple futures prices have corrected, and the main contract has shifted. The closing price of the 2601 contract is 8,288 yuan/ton, down 0.04% [1] Important Information - In Shandong, the price of bagged late Fuji 80 is between 3.80 - 4.00 yuan/jin (striped red, first and second grades); the price of bagged late Fuji above 80 is between 3.00 - 3.50 yuan/jin (striped red, general goods), and the price of the third - grade bagged late Fuji above 80 is between 2.50 - 2.80 yuan/jin. The price of the first and second - grade bagged striped 80 is between 4.10 - 4.50 yuan/jin. In Shaanxi, the semi - commercial price of bagged late Fuji starting from 70 is between 4.70 - 4.80 yuan/jin. In Gansu, the price of mountain semi - commercial fruit of late Fuji above 75 in Renda Town is about 4.50 yuan/jin [1] Market Logic - Rainfall in Shaanxi and Gansu production areas has ended, and the bag - removing work of late Fuji has begun. The current transactions in the production areas are mainly based on inventory Gala, Red Star, and Huaniu. In Shandong, the remaining supply of Red General is small, and the quality is poor. The new - season apple's early - maturing fruit purchase price in the northwest is 0.2 - 0.4 yuan/jin higher year - on - year, and the opening price of late - maturing Red Fuji is expected to be strong. The market focus is shifting from the supply side to demand verification [1] Trading Strategy - Hold long positions in the AP2601 contract [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings by Industry - Agriculture, Forestry, and Livestock (Corn): Bullish on dips [2] - Pig: Range trading [5] - Egg: Short on rallies [5] 2. Core Views - **Corn**: In the short - term, spot prices are stabilizing during the new - old crop transition, with support and resistance levels. In the medium - term, trading is driven by new - season factors. In the long - term, pricing is based on import substitution and planting costs [2]. - **Pig**: Short - term supply exceeds demand, pressuring prices. Medium - term supply is expected to increase. Long - term, high sow inventory and high efficiency will lead to continuous production [5]. - **Egg**: In the medium - short term, post - mid - month, price momentum weakens. In the long term, supply pressure may re - emerge depending on hen culling [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Corn - **Market Review**: Overnight, the corn futures had a narrow - range oscillation. The 2511 contract rose 0.23% to close at 2156 yuan/ton [2]. - **Important Information**: Deep - processing enterprise purchase prices fluctuated; port prices were stable to firm; futures warehouse receipts decreased; the wheat - corn price spread was positive [2]. - **Market Logic**: Short - term, spot prices are stabilizing, and the price is affected by import auctions and price spreads. Medium - term, it's driven by new - season factors. Long - term, it follows the import substitution and planting cost logic [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a range - trading strategy in the medium - long term. Look for short - term low - buying opportunities near support levels [2]. Pig - **Market Review**: The pig futures continued to decline. The LH2511 contract dropped 1.48% to close at 12665 yuan/ton [5]. - **Important Information**: The national average pig price decreased; sow inventory was high; the price spread between fattening and standard pigs narrowed; the weekly average slaughter weight increased; futures warehouse receipts decreased [5]. - **Market Logic**: Short - term, supply exceeds demand. Medium - term, supply is expected to increase. Long - term, high sow inventory will lead to continuous production [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Near - month contracts are based on supply - demand logic. Consider taking profits on short positions. Far - month contracts focus on the expected change in sow inventory [5]. Egg - **Market Review**: The egg futures continued to decline. The JD2511 contract dropped 1% to close at 3065 yuan/500kg [5]. - **Important Information**: Egg prices were stable; inventory increased; the price of culled hens rose; the estimated laying - hen inventory decreased in September [5]. - **Market Logic**: Medium - short term, price momentum weakens after mid - month. Long - term, supply pressure may re - emerge depending on hen culling [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Maintain a short - on - rallies strategy. Look for selling - hedging opportunities for high - price contracts for farmers [5].

Group 1 - Report industry: Agricultural products (soybeans, oil, and meal) [5] Group 2 - The core view of the report: Argentina's decision to cancel all grain export taxes before October 31 is expected to increase the near - term supply of soybeans and soybean oil and lower soybean premium quotes. In the short term, the market sentiment is negatively affected, and Argentine soybeans, soybean oil, and soybean meal are expected to impact the market at low prices from September to October. However, the market will eventually return to its trading pattern, and the oil market is more resistant to pressure than the protein market [5] Group 3 - Event: Argentina's government announced the cancellation of all grain export taxes before October 31. The previous export tax rates were 26% for soybeans and 24.5% for soybean meal and soybean oil [5] - Market reaction: After the news, U.S. soybeans, U.S. soybean oil, and Malaysian palm oil prices declined. In the domestic market, the decline of Dalian Commodity Exchange's soybean meal and three major oils exceeded 2% and 3%, respectively [5] - Supply impact: The policy is expected to increase the near - term supply of soybeans and soybean oil and lower soybean premium quotes [5] - Short - term impact: From September to October, due to the tax - exemption policy, Argentine soybeans, soybean oil, and soybean meal are expected to impact the market at low prices [5] - Follow - up focus: It is necessary to pay attention to Argentina's subsequent export capacity. From January to August 2025, Argentina has processed and exported about 33.22 million tons of soybeans, with an annual remaining usage of about 15 million tons [5] - Market resistance: The oil market is more resistant to pressure than the protein market [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The macro and financial sector of the global economy is rated as "Bullish" [1] Core View - The global economy maintains an upward trend, with China implementing the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative, international capital actively increasing positions in China's technology sector, the US retail and manufacturing showing positive trends, the euro - zone manufacturing PMI breaking above the boom - bust line, and the global AI infrastructure accelerating [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Information - From a global perspective, Luobomei is more optimistic about non - US equity markets, especially China, Japan, and Europe. The weakening of the US dollar is expected to promote global capital re - balancing, and the demand for foreign capital to flow back to A - shares and Hong Kong stocks is expected to significantly increase [1] - A Goldman Sachs trader believes that the market is entering a liquidity - driven speculative stage, similar to the situation in 1999 in the US stock market, with the investment logic shifting from fundamentals to liquidity, market positions, and price trends [1] - Hong Kong - related ETFs have become the core carriers of capital inflows, with many products showing high scale and high net capital inflows. As of September 19, the latest scale of E Fund Hang Seng Tech ETF exceeded 20 billion yuan, reaching 20.45 billion yuan [1] - Huaxi Securities believes that Huawei has achieved TB - level ultra - large bandwidth through multi - port aggregation and high - sealing technology. The inter - connection bandwidth of Atlas 950 reaches 16.3PB/s, 62 times that of NVIDIA NVL144, and has achieved a 24% improvement in latency [1] - Samsung has significantly raised the prices of memory and flash products, with DRAM products increasing by up to 30% and NAND flash prices rising by 5 - 10%. Micron and SanDisk have also announced similar price increases [1] - Morgan Stanley says the humanoid robot industry is at a critical turning point, with the global market expected to reach $5 trillion by 2050. China leads the world in commercial orders, with a cumulative order amount of 975 million yuan, and Tesla Optimus V3 has become a global focus [1] Global Economic Logic - China implements the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative, and international capital actively increases positions in China's technology sector. The US retail in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding expectations. The US capital goods imports in July reached $95.8 billion, a new record. The euro - zone manufacturing PMI in August broke above the boom - bust line for the first time since June 2022. Huawei announced the evolution and goals of Ascend chips, and the global AI infrastructure is accelerating [1]

Group 1 - The investment rating of the report is not mentioned in the provided content. Group 2 - The core view of the report is that as of September 14, the Mongolian coal inventory at the Ganqimao Port was 2780000 tons, with a slight weekly increase of 160000 tons. The average daily vehicle - throughput in August was 1085, and after entering September, the number of customs - cleared vehicles increased significantly, with the average monthly customs - cleared vehicles reaching 1273 per day [1]. Group 3 Summary of the table in the report - The report shows the weekly inventory data of Mongolian coal in the Ganqimao supervision area from July 5, 2025, to September 20, 2025. For example, the inventory on July 5, 2025, was 3750000 tons, and on September 20, 2025, it was 2780000 tons [1].

Report Summary 1. Key Events - The 2510 series contracts of SHFE's commodity options on copper, rubber, gold, aluminum, zinc, rebar, silver, synthetic rubber, nickel, tin, lead, and alumina will expire on September 24, 2025, which is also the expiration date for 9 major ETF options [1] 2. Option Types - Commodity options are American - style options, allowing the buyer to exercise the right on any trading day before and including the expiration date. ETF options are European - style options, exercisable only on the expiration date [1] 3. Operation Deadlines - The deadline for closing positions on the expiration date is 15:00, and the deadline for exercise and waiver operations is 15:10. Commodity in - the - money options with sufficient available funds in the account will be automatically exercised, while out - of - the - money and at - the - money options will be automatically waived. ETF options require an active exercise application during trading hours [7] 4. Opportunities of End - of - Cycle Options - Low - cost bet on market trends: With extremely low contract prices, if the underlying asset experiences an unexpected large increase or decrease, investors may achieve returns of dozens or even hundreds of times [7] - Profit from time - value decay: Option sellers can earn premiums through the rapid decay of time value when the price of the underlying asset is stable. However, this involves unlimited risks and is suitable for professional investors [7] 5. Risks of End - of - Cycle Options - Time - value zeroing risk: If the price of the underlying asset fails to meet expectations before expiration, the option value may shrink significantly due to the rapid loss of time value and become worthless at expiration [7] - Liquidity risk: Some end - of - cycle options have low trading activity, large bid - ask spreads, and it is difficult to execute trades at the desired price, potentially leading to actual losses exceeding expectations [7] - Leverage magnification risk: End - of - cycle options have low prices and extremely high leverage. Small fluctuations in the underlying asset can cause violent oscillations in option prices, potentially resulting in huge short - term fluctuations [6] - Direction misjudgment risk: With a short expiration time, it is difficult for the underlying asset to have a significant trend. Once the direction is misjudged, there is little time for adjustment and recovery [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a long position for IF, IC, IM, and IH in the stock index futures of the macro and financial sector [1]. - Goldman Sachs maintains an overweight rating for A - shares and H - shares [1]. - CITIC Construction Investment Research Report is bullish on the overall Hong Kong stock market [1]. Report's Core View - The Chinese stock market's strong performance this year may be driven by "re - inflation" expectations and artificial intelligence, and future improvements in valuation and liquidity may contribute to further prosperity [1]. - International capital is actively increasing its positions in China's technology sector as China has global competitiveness in frontier fields such as AI, robotics, and biotechnology, and the window for stock market valuation repair is opening [1]. - The narrowing of the Sino - US interest rate spread will attract more global funds to focus on RMB assets, and investors will adjust their asset allocation to increase holdings of Chinese bonds and stocks [1]. - After entering September, the A - share market is in a consolidation period, and the advantages of Hong Kong stocks are emerging [1]. - The current stock market is in a rest stage after a sharp decline on Thursday. The traditional industries are strengthening, and the CSI 300 index stabilizes the market. The market is undergoing a phased style shift from growth to defense, but the upward trend remains unchanged [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Friday, the main indexes of the two markets fluctuated and closed slightly lower, with the CSI 300 index rising. The trading volume of the two markets was 2.32 trillion yuan, showing a rapid contraction. The CSI 300 index closed at 4501 points, up 3 points or 0.08%; the SSE 50 index closed at 2909 points, down 3 points or - 0.11%; the CSI 500 index closed at 7170 points, down 29 points or - 0.41%; the CSI 1000 index closed at 7438 points, down 38 points or - 0.51% [1]. - Among industry and theme ETFs, coal ETF, military industry leading ETF, engineering machinery ETF, real estate ETF, and tourism ETF led the gains, while auto parts ETF, robot 50ETF, and integrated circuit ETF led the losses. Among the sector indexes of the two markets, energy metals, engineering machinery, tourism, film and television theaters, and coal mining indexes led the gains, while motor manufacturing, home appliance parts, auto services, reducers, and PEEK material indexes led the losses [1]. - The settlement funds of stock index futures for the CSI 1000, CSI 500, CSI 300, and SSE 50 indexes had net outflows of 5.8 billion, 3.1 billion, 2.6 billion, and 2.2 billion yuan respectively [1]. Important Information - Goldman Sachs believes that "re - inflation" expectations and artificial intelligence may be the key drivers of the Chinese stock market's strong performance this year, and future improvements in valuation and liquidity may contribute to further prosperity [1]. - Goldman Sachs maintains an overweight rating for A - shares and H - shares, and international capital is actively increasing its positions in China's technology sector [1]. - The narrowing of the Sino - US interest rate spread will attract more global funds to focus on RMB assets [1]. - CITIC Construction Investment Research Report shows that after entering September, the A - share market is in a consolidation period, and the attention of domestic and foreign funds to Hong Kong stocks is increasing, and the advantages of Hong Kong stocks are emerging [1]. - Huawei's core strategy is "super - node + cluster", and its Atlas 950 super - node is leading compared with NVIDIA's planned NVL576 in 2027 [1]. - In July, Japan and the UK increased their holdings of US Treasury bonds, while China reduced its holdings by 25.7 billion US dollars to 730.7 billion US dollars, the lowest level since 2009 [2]. - The Bank of Japan announced that it will sell its ETF holdings at a rate of about 330 billion yen per year and real - estate REIT at a rate of about 5 billion yen per year [2]. - The US Department of Energy launched the "Power Acceleration" plan to meet the surging power demand from artificial intelligence and data centers [2]. - Microsoft will invest 3.3 billion US dollars in a data center in Wisconsin, which will be put into use early next year and will be 10 times more powerful than the current fastest supercomputer [2]. Market Logic - The Chinese stock market's current rally is mainly driven by liquidity, with "re - inflation" expectations and AI autonomy as key catalysts [2]. - If the proportion of foreign institutional holdings in the A - share market rises to the average level of emerging or developed markets, it may bring 14 trillion to 30 trillion yuan of potential capital inflows [2]. Future Market Outlook - The narrowing of the Sino - US interest rate spread will attract more global funds to focus on RMB assets, and investors will increase their holdings of Chinese assets [2]. - The current stock market is in a rest stage after a sharp decline on Thursday. The traditional industries are strengthening, and the CSI 300 index stabilizes the market. The market is undergoing a phased style shift from growth to defense, but the upward trend remains unchanged [2]. Trading Strategy - For stock index futures directional trading, in the rest stage, traditional industries are strengthening, and the CSI 300 index stabilizes the market. The market is undergoing a phased style shift from growth to defense, and the upward trend remains unchanged [2]. - For stock index option trading, during the volatile period when the market is undergoing a phased style shift from growth to defense, it is advisable to wait and see [2].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that the log 11 contract will fluctuate in the range of 800 yuan/cubic meter. The current market shows a pattern of inverted domestic and foreign prices, with the high foreign - market quotes providing cost support while domestic inventory has been declining for multiple weeks. Although it is still the off - season for demand, the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is approaching, and the contract price is undervalued. It is recommended to lay out long - term positions for the peak - season expectation when the price is low. In the short term, due to the pressure from the price difference between high foreign quotes and weak domestic spot prices, import enthusiasm is suppressed, and the daily inventory withdrawal at ports remains high, leading to marginal improvement in supply and demand. However, since the peak - season demand has not started yet, it is advisable to stay on the sidelines for now [6][22]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Log 2511 Contract Trend Review No specific content for the contract trend review is provided in the report. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong is 750 yuan/cubic meter, with a monthly increase of 20 yuan/cubic meter; in Jiangsu, the 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine log price is 780 yuan/cubic meter, also with a monthly increase of 20 yuan/cubic meter. The CFR price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine from New Zealand is 114 US dollars/JAS square, down 2 US dollars from last week, and the import profit has narrowed. The price of radiata pine logs at Rizhao Port has remained stable at 750 yuan/cubic meter, and the Jiangsu market price is 780 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from last week, with a regional price difference of 30 yuan/cubic meter [10][13]. - **New Zealand Log Shipment Volume and Ship Number**: In July 2025, New Zealand is expected to ship 1.955 million cubic meters of logs, a month - on - month increase of 13.19%, and the number of ships is expected to be 47, a month - on - month decrease of 5 [15]. - **China's Log Inventory**: As of August 30, China's log inventory was 3.17 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 30,000 cubic meters. Shandong's log inventory was 1.95 million cubic meters, and Jiangsu's was 0.96 million cubic meters. In terms of classification, radiata pine inventory was 2.56 million cubic meters, spruce log inventory was 0.2 million cubic meters, and North American log inventory was 0.2 million cubic meters [18]. - **Log Out - of - Warehouse Volume**: As of August 31, the average daily out - of - warehouse volume of logs at 13 ports was 64,200 cubic meters, with a monthly average daily increase of 11,000 cubic meters. Among them, the average daily total out - of - warehouse volume at 3 ports in Shandong was 35,700 cubic meters, and at 3 ports in Jiangsu was 23,200 cubic meters [20]. 3.3 Trading Strategy Logic The recent spot market has shown a weak - to - stable trend. The supply side has fluctuated significantly, with the actual arrival volume in the week of September 12 reaching 470,000 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 246,000 cubic meters, but the expected arrival volume this week will drop significantly to about 215,000 cubic meters. The demand side has been stable, with the average daily shipment volume increasing to 62,900 cubic meters, a week - on - week increase of 17,000 cubic meters. There have been structural changes in inventory, with coniferous logs generally shifting to an inventory - building pattern, with a weekly inventory increase of 80,000 cubic meters. Among them, radiata pine inventory increased by 80,000 cubic meters, while North American log inventory decreased by 10,000 cubic meters. Regionally, the inventory at Shandong ports was 1.83 million cubic meters, an increase of 17,000 cubic meters, and at Jiangsu ports was 917,800 cubic meters, an increase of 2,400 cubic meters [22].

Report Overview - Report Title: Cotton Futures Weekly Review - Date: September 20, 2025 - Researcher: Wang Zijian - Contact: 17803978037 - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03087965 - Futures Trading Consultation Number: Z0019551 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Internationally, the Fed's 25bp rate cut met market expectations. The 2025/26 global cotton market will have a 250,000 - ton supply - demand gap. The supply in the international cotton market is tightening, driving cotton prices to remain strong [4]. - Domestically, the domestic cotton market is in the critical period of new cotton harvesting, with the price center moving down. New cotton listing pressure is digesting the support effect of reduced old - cotton inventory, and domestic cotton prices will face seasonal downward pressure in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 International Market - **Supply - demand situation**: The 2025/26 global cotton market will have a 250,000 - ton supply - demand gap (production of 25.62 million tons/consumption of 25.87 million tons), with production decreasing by 340,000 tons year - on - year and consumption decreasing by 70,000 tons year - on - year. Brazil's cotton harvesting is over 60% and processing is 20%. US new cotton boll opening rate is 40%, 12 percentage points faster week - on - week but 4 percentage points lower than last year, and the picking progress is 8%, 1 percentage point higher than last year. In early September, US cotton export contracts decreased by 26,200 tons to 29,700 tons, and shipments decreased by 5,300 tons to 30,800 tons. Uzbekistan plans to boost the cotton textile industry through industrial subsidy policies [4]. - **US cotton data**: In September 2025, the US cotton planting area was 56.427 million mu, up 115,000 mu month - on - month; the harvest area was 44.729 million mu, up 79,000 mu month - on - month; the abandonment rate was 20.7%, with little change. The yield per unit was expected to be 64.3 kg/mu, slightly decreasing month - on - month; the production was expected to be 2.879 million tons, up 2,000 tons month - on - month. Consumption was expected to be 370,000 tons, and exports were expected to be 2.613 million tons, with no significant changes. The ending inventory remained at 784,000 tons [14]. - **US cotton growth progress**: As of September 14, the US cotton boll opening rate was 50%, 3 percentage points behind last year and 1 percentage point ahead of the five - year average. The picking progress was 9%, 1 percentage point behind last year and 1 percentage point ahead of the five - year average. In the main producing area of Texas, the boll opening rate was 46%, the same as last year and 1 percentage point ahead of the five - year average; the picking progress was 21%, the same as last year and 4 percentage points ahead of the five - year average [16]. - **US drought situation**: As of September 9, the area of drought - affected regions in the US accounted for 35.9%, 1.2 percentage points higher than the previous week. About 32% of cotton - planting areas in the US were affected by drought, 2 percentage points higher than the previous week. In Texas, about 7% of cotton - planting areas were affected by drought, 4 percentage points higher than the previous week [19]. - **US cotton export**: As of September 11, 2025, the US had cumulatively signed net export contracts for 925,000 tons of 2025/26 cotton, reaching 35.40% of the annual expected exports, and had cumulatively shipped 188,000 tons, with a shipment rate of 20.27%. China had cumulatively signed contracts to import 17,000 tons of US cotton, accounting for 1.81% of the signed US cotton contracts, and had cumulatively shipped 363 tons, accounting for 0.19% of the total US cotton shipments and 2.17% of China's signed contracts [28]. 3.2 Domestic Market - **Supply situation**: The domestic cotton market is in the new cotton harvesting period. Xinjiang and other main producing areas' new cotton is in the boll - opening stage, and mechanical harvesting is expected to start next week. Mainstream institutions predict that the domestic cotton production in 2025 will exceed 7 million tons. As of September 11, the national new cotton picking progress was 0.3%, 0.1 percentage points higher than last year but 0.1 percentage points lower than the four - year average. The initial inventory decreased by 110,000 tons to 6.13 million tons. Due to the increase in cotton - planting area in Xinjiang and a slight increase in yield per unit, the national total production was increased by 520,000 tons to 7.42 million tons this month. The annual import volume remained at 1.4 million tons [5][26]. - **Demand situation**: The downstream demand is under pressure. The effect of textile industry's rush - to - export has faded, and overseas orders have shrunk. In August, textile and clothing exports were 26.5 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 5%. From January to August, cumulative exports were 197.2 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.2%. The new - year textile production capacity in Xinjiang will increase steadily, and the overall textile cotton demand will remain high. The annual textile cotton consumption expectation was increased by 120,000 tons to 8.02 million tons this month, and other consumption and exports remained at 380,000 tons and 20,000 tons respectively [5][26]. - **Market structure**: The old - cotton inventory is continuously consumed, supporting high spot prices, but textile enterprises' purchasing willingness is low, resulting in a situation of high prices but few transactions in the spot market [5]. - **Spinning enterprises situation**: Small and medium - sized spinning enterprises maintain a low operating rate, and the market demand is difficult to support the recovery of the operating rate. Large and medium - sized spinning enterprises with stable customer groups have relatively stable orders and a high operating rate, but yarn prices are difficult to rise, and enterprises have difficulty in making profits, mainly selling at a loss. The operating rates of spinning mills in various regions are basically stable. Large spinning mills in Xinjiang operate at about 90%, large enterprises in Henan operate at an average of 60% - 70%, and large spinning mills in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, and Anhui along the Yangtze River operate at an average of 60% - 70% [30]. - **Commercial inventory**: As of August 2025, China's domestic cotton commercial inventory was 1.4817 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 338,500 tons, and it was at a historically low level seasonally [32]. 3.3 USDA Data - **Global cotton supply - demand forecast**: In the 2025/26 global cotton supply - demand forecast, production increased month - on - month, consumption increased month - on - month, and import and export trade volumes both increased slightly. Due to the decrease in initial inventory, the ending inventory decreased again this year. In the 2024/25 supply - demand forecast, global cotton production and consumption increased, and the ending inventory decreased again because the increase in consumption was greater than that in production [13].