1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the global economy in the macro and financial sector is (Bullish) [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Overseas funds are continuously flowing into Chinese assets, leading to the rise of popular Chinese concept stocks and new highs in relevant indices. Huawei's report on the future trends of key technologies shows the potential of AGI and AI. The consumption of enterprise - level large - model Tokens in China has increased significantly, and Alibaba has advantages. Ningde Times has high - tech production lines and great potential in the energy storage business. The UK and the US have reached a technology agreement, and the US may set up a mining investment fund. The gold price increase is driven by European and American investors. China's economic policies and international economic trends are also favorable [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Important Information - Overseas funds are flowing into Chinese assets, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index reaching a new high since February 2022 and the Hang Seng Tech Index hitting a new high since March [1] - Huawei released the Smart World 2035 series of reports, stating that AGI will be the most transformative driving force in the next decade, and the total computing power of the whole society will increase by 100,000 times in 2035 [1] - The daily average Token consumption of Chinese enterprise - level large models reached 10.2 trillion in the first half of 2025, a surge of 363% compared to the second half of 2024. Goldman Sachs believes Alibaba is in an advantageous position [1] - Morgan Stanley thinks Ningde Times' self - developed production line has high - tech features, with a current utilization rate of over 90%, and it is building new capacity with a target of 1TWh next year [1] - The UK and the US reached a "Technology Prosperity Agreement", and US tech giants will invest over £31 billion in AI and other projects [1] - The rise in the gold price is mainly driven by European and American investors, with significant increases in the US trading session and ETF holdings [1] - The US International Development Finance Corporation is in talks to set up a mining investment fund with a scale of about $5 billion [1] 3.2 Global Economic Logic - China is implementing the "Artificial Intelligence +" action, and the energy storage installation scale will double in three years. In August, a net inflow of $39 billion entered Chinese bonds and stocks [1] - The Federal Reserve has entered an interest - rate cut cycle, and the US Court of Appeals ruled that "reciprocal tariffs" are illegal [1] - US capital goods imports in July reached a record high of $95.8 billion, and the manufacturing industry is accelerating. The eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August exceeded the boom - bust line for the first time since June 2022 [1] - Huawei released the Smart World 2035 series of reports, and Yushu Technology open - sourced a world model - motion architecture for multiple types of robots. Global AI giants are starting a model competition [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Tuesday, the major indices of the two markets showed strong oscillations, with growth - type indices being relatively strong and the robot sector leading the gains. The total trading volume of the two markets was 2.34 trillion yuan, showing little change. The inflow of international and domestic funds into the A - share market is continuous, and mid - cap growth stocks represented by the CSI 500 Index are expected to lead the rise. The anti - involution market has entered the second wave, and before the Fed cuts interest rates, commodity prices will restart their upward trend [1][2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - The CSI 500 Index closed at 7190 points, up 53 points or 0.75%; the CSI 1000 Index closed at 7483 points, up 68 points or 0.92%; the SSE 300 Index closed at 4523 points, down 9 points or - 0.21%; the SSE 50 Index closed at 2947 points, down 14 points or - 0.50%. Among industry and theme ETFs, those with the highest gains were auto parts ETF, robot 50ETF, computer ETF, big data ETF, and intelligent driving ETF, while those with the highest losses were rare metal ETF, rare earth ETF, and industrial non - ferrous ETF. Among the sector indices of the two markets, those with the highest gains were home appliance parts, motor manufacturing, reducers, industrial Internet, and humanoid robot indices, while those with the highest losses were marine equipment, rare metals, aquaculture, oil and gas extraction, and commercial vehicle indices. The futures settlement funds of the CSI 1000, CSI 500, SSE 300, and SSE 50 Index futures had net inflows of 970 million, 510 million, 270 million, and 30 million yuan respectively [1] 3.2 Important Information - Nine departments including the Ministry of Commerce issued policies to support financial institutions in expanding credit in the service consumption field. Since the low point in April, the CSI Non - Ferrous Metals Index and the CSI Sub - chemical Index have rebounded by 57% and 32% respectively, and a large amount of funds has flowed out of science - innovation ETFs and into chemical and non - ferrous ETFs. There are new changes in the application rules for public bond funds. Yushu Technology has open - sourced a world model - action architecture for multi - type robot bodies. The energy storage action plan has set a goal to double the domestic energy storage installed capacity by 2027. In early September, CATL's sodium - ion battery passed the new national standard certification. JPMorgan predicts that the gold price will break through $4000 per ounce in the first quarter of next year. US retail sales in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month for the third consecutive month. The US Federal Appellate Court in the District of Columbia rejected the Department of Justice's emergency application and maintained the ban on Trump from replacing Cook [1][2] 3.3 Market Logic - The major indices of the two markets showed strong oscillations on Tuesday, with growth - type indices being relatively strong and the robot sector leading the gains. By the end of June 2025, the total scale of other equity instrument investment OCI assets held by the five listed insurance companies reached about 1.1 trillion yuan, a record high. In August, a total of $3.9 billion flowed into Chinese bonds and stocks. According to EPFR data for the first week of September, foreign capital had a net inflow of $5.02 billion into Chinese mainland market stock funds [2] 3.4 Market Outlook - The inflow of international and domestic funds into the A - share market is continuous, and mid - cap growth stocks represented by the CSI 500 Index are expected to lead the rise. The anti - involution market has entered the second wave, and before the Fed cuts interest rates, commodity prices will restart their upward trend. The total scale of domestic ETFs has historically exceeded 5 trillion yuan, and a new investment era defined by ETFs has arrived. Global financial assets are being re - allocated away from the US, and international funds are accelerating their inflow into the A - share market [2] 3.5 Trading Strategies - For futures index directional trading, as commodity prices restart their upward trend and the anti - involution market enters the second wave, with continuous inflow of domestic and international funds into the A - share market, mid - cap growth stocks represented by the CSI 500 Index are expected to lead the rise. For index option trading, as the major indices oscillate upward, one can buy out - of - the - money long - term index call options at an appropriate time [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a long position for macro and financial index futures (IF, IC, IM, IH) [1] Core Viewpoints - The A-share market is in a "double bottom area" in terms of fundamentals and capital inflows, with improving conditions. The transformation from a structural bull market to a full-fledged bull market hinges on anti-involution. The market is expected to continue grinding at the bottom or improve [1] - The continuous inflow of foreign capital into the Chinese mainland stock market, the significant increase in the OCI assets of major insurance companies, and the potential Fed rate cuts are expected to drive overseas funds into the A-share market. The battery sector has led the ChiNext Index to a new high and also influenced the CSI 300 Index [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - On Monday, the major indices in the two markets showed strong oscillations. The ChiNext Index continued to rise and reached a new high. The total trading volume in the two markets was 2.27 trillion yuan, showing a shrinking trend during the oscillations. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4,533 points, up 11 points or 0.24%; the CSI 500 Index closed at 7,137 points, down 10 points or -0.15%; the CSI 1000 Index closed at 7,415 points, down 7 points or -0.10%; the SSE 50 Index closed at 2,962 points, down 5 points or -0.20% [1] - Among industry and theme ETFs, those with the highest gains were the Gaming ETF, Film and Television ETF, Intelligent Electric Vehicle ETF, Lithium Battery ETF, and Automobile ETF, while those with the highest losses were the Communication ETF, 5G50 ETF, and Telecom ETF Fund. Among the sector indices in the two markets, the Battery, Gaming, Film and Television Theatres, Pork, and Commercial Vehicle indices had the highest gains, while the Aerospace Equipment, Rare Metals, Communication Equipment, Components, and Military Electronics indices had the highest losses [1] - The settlement funds of stock index futures for the CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 300, and SSE 50 indices had net outflows of 6.7 billion yuan, 6 billion yuan, 3.5 billion yuan, and 300 million yuan respectively [1] Important Information - In August, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.2% year-on-year. On a month-on-month basis, it increased by 0.37%. Among the 41 major industries, 31 saw year-on-year growth in added value [1] - In August, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 3,966.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.4% and a month-on-month increase of 0.17%. Excluding automobile sales, the retail sales of consumer goods were 3,557.5 billion yuan, a 3.7% increase [1] - Shenwan Hongyuan believes that technological industry trends such as AI computing power continue to catalyze, driving a structural market. The core judgment is that the fundamentals and capital inflows of the A-share market are both in the "double bottom area", with only two possibilities in the future: "continuing to grind at the bottom" and "improvement", and the improvement conditions are constantly optimizing. Anti-involution will be the key to the transformation from a structural bull market to a full-fledged bull market [1] - As of the end of June 2025, the total OCI asset scale held by the five major listed insurance companies reached approximately 1.1 trillion yuan, a record high. The growth rate of insurance funds' OCI assets in the first half of the year exceeded 35% [1][2] - Morgan Stanley released a report stating that as CATL makes breakthroughs in the European market and with the current popular solid-state battery technology, CATL's leading position will be maintained, and its valuation has significant attractiveness among its peers, making it the "cheapest in the industry" [1] - As of the end of August, the national commercial housing inventory was 761.69 million square meters, a decrease of 3.17 million square meters from the end of July. Among them, the residential inventory decreased by 3.07 million square meters, and the commercial housing inventory has decreased for six consecutive months [1] - Recently, funds have been increasing their layout in the chemical sector through ETFs. According to Wind data, as of September 11, the Peng Hua CSI Sub - Chemical Industry Theme ETF had the highest net inflow of funds in the past month among all stock - type ETFs in the market [2] - Data released by TrendForce Jibang Consulting shows that the prices in multiple upstream and mid - stream sectors of the photovoltaic industry have risen significantly recently. Analysts believe that the "anti - involution" in the photovoltaic industry has achieved initial results, and the prices of multiple links in the industrial chain are expected to maintain an upward trend [2] - Goldman Sachs maintains its target price forecast of $4,000 per ounce for gold in mid - 2026, believing that central bank gold purchase demand is expected to continue for three years, and the gold allocation ratio of emerging market central banks is still significantly low. A survey by the World Gold Council shows that 95% of central banks expect the global gold holdings to increase in the next 12 months [2] - US President Trump said that he expects the Federal Reserve to announce "substantial interest rate cuts" at this week's meeting. If true, this will be the Fed's first interest rate cut since December last year [2] Market Logic - On Monday, the major indices in the two markets showed strong oscillations, and the ChiNext Index continued to rise and reached a new high. The OCI assets in the accounting accounts of insurance companies are destined to affect the A - share market for many years. As of the end of June 2025, the total OCI asset scale held by the five major listed insurance companies reached approximately 1.1 trillion yuan, a record high. The growth rate of insurance funds' OCI assets in the first half of the year exceeded 35% [1][2] - The latest report from the Institute of International Finance (IIF) shows that in August, there was a net inflow of $39 billion into Chinese bonds and stocks. The momentum of foreign capital allocating to the Chinese mainland stock market has increased. According to EPFR data for the first week of September, foreign capital had a net inflow of $5.02 billion into Chinese mainland market stock funds [2] Future Market Outlook - On Monday, the major indices in the two markets showed strong oscillations, and the ChiNext Index continued to rise and reached a new high. The latest report from the IIF shows that in August, there was a net inflow of $39 billion into Chinese bonds and stocks. As of September 8, the margin trading balance was 2.2975 trillion yuan, with a daily increase of approximately 26.2 billion yuan. The total scale of domestic ETFs has historically exceeded the 5 - trillion - yuan mark, and ETFs have profoundly reshaped the A - share ecosystem. When residents' investment shifts from "speculating in individual stocks" to "allocating to indices", a new investment era defined by ETFs has arrived [2] - As of the end of June 2025, the total OCI asset scale held by the five major listed insurance companies reached approximately 1.1 trillion yuan, a record high. The growth rate of insurance funds' OCI assets in the first half of the year exceeded 35%. The global re - allocation of financial assets to "de - Americanize" is expected to accelerate the inflow of international funds into the A - share market. According to EPFR data for the first week of September, foreign capital had a net inflow of approximately $5.5 billion into the Chinese mainland market, of which the net inflow into stock funds was $5.02 billion. Citigroup expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by a cumulative 125 basis points in the next five FOMC meetings. A storage plan has been released, and the storage installed capacity will double in three years. The battery sector has led the ChiNext Index to a new high and also influenced the CSI 300 Index. With the imminent Fed rate cuts, overseas funds will flow into the A - share market at an accelerated pace [2] Trading Strategies - Stock index futures directional trading: The battery sector has led the ChiNext Index to a new high and also influenced the CSI 300 Index. With the imminent Fed rate cuts, overseas funds will flow into the A - share market at an accelerated pace. Maintain a bullish view on stock indices [2] - Stock index options trading: The major indices are expected to continue to move upward. Seize the opportunity to buy out - of - the - money long - term call options on stock indices [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - In August, China's economic performance was below expectations, with fixed - asset investment, social consumption, industrial added value, export, and service production index all showing less - than - expected growth, and the real estate market continuing to decline. To maintain rapid economic growth, domestic demand needs to continue to play a key role. The government will introduce policies to expand service consumption, promote private investment, and launch new policy - based financial tools [1][2][3]. Summary by Related Content Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to August, national fixed - asset investment increased by 0.5% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 1.3% and the 1.6% in January - July. General infrastructure investment (including electricity) increased by 5.4% year - on - year, narrow infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) increased by 2.0%, manufacturing investment increased by 5.1%, and real estate development investment decreased by 12.9%. Private fixed - asset investment decreased by 2.3%. In August, manufacturing investment decreased by 1.3% year - on - year, and narrow infrastructure investment decreased by 5.9% year - on - year [1][4]. Real Estate Market - From January to August, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 4.7% year - on - year, and the sales volume decreased by 7.3%. In August, the sales prices of second - hand residential properties in first - tier cities decreased by 1.0% month - on - month for the fifth consecutive month, and those in second - and third - tier cities also continued to decline. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises decreased by 12.5% year - on - year, and the newly - started and completed floor areas also showed year - on - year declines [2][5][7]. Industrial Added Value - In August, the value - added of large - scale industries increased by 5.2% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 5.8%. From January to August, it increased by 6.2% year - on - year. High - tech manufacturing maintained rapid growth, with an 8 - month growth of 9.5% year - on - year. The product sales rate of large - scale industrial enterprises was 96.6%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1 percentage points [9]. Exports - In August, China's exports in US dollars increased by 4.4% year - on - year, lower than the expected 5.9%. From January to August, exports increased by 5.9% year - on - year. Exports to ASEAN and the EU increased, while exports to the US decreased significantly. Due to the low base in September last year, export growth is expected to be rapid in September, but may decline in the fourth quarter [2][10][11]. Social Consumption - In August, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 3.4% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 3.8%. From January to August, it increased by 4.6% year - on - year. The growth rate of consumer goods related to the trade - in policy decreased, while the growth of improved consumption accelerated. The retail sales of the automobile category increased by 0.8% year - on - year [14][15]. Service Industry - In August, the national service industry production index increased by 5.6% year - on - year, lower than the 5.8% in July. From January to August, it increased by 5.9% year - on - year. Information transmission, software and information technology services, finance, and leasing and business services had faster growth rates [16]. Unemployment Rate - In August, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.3%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, the same as the same month last year. The unemployment rate of migrant workers decreased slightly [16]. Policy Measures - The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption in September. On September 12, the State Council executive meeting deployed measures to promote private investment. New policy - based financial tools will be launched to support emerging industries and infrastructure projects [3][18].

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - to - medium - term, the start of school and Mid - Autumn Festival stocking support the short - term strength of egg prices, but the current chicken culling is less than expected and the cold - storage egg inventory pressure is high. In the second half of the month, the stocking intensity is expected to weaken, and one should not be overly optimistic about further price increases. In the long - term, if the chicken culling by farmers is less than expected, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter will re - emerge [6]. - It is not recommended to chase long positions. Before large - scale concentrated chicken culling occurs, the idea of shorting on highs remains unchanged. Farmers can also consider selling - hedge opportunities to lock in breeding profits after the 2607 and 2608 contracts rise [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Performance - Today, egg futures contracts show a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. The 2511 contract reached a maximum of 3197 yuan/500kg during the session and closed at 3169 yuan/500kg, with a gain of 3.97%. The 2605 contract fell 1.52% to 3377 yuan/500kg [6]. Spot Performance - The stocking peak season supports the continued increase in egg prices over the weekend. On the 14th, the egg price in Guantao, Handan, Hebei was 3.44 yuan/jin, up 0.11 yuan/jin from last Friday. Today, the price of pink eggs in Guantao, Handan, Hebei was 3.6 yuan/jin, up 0.16 yuan/jin from the previous day [6]. Analysis Logic - Short - to - medium - term: School openings and Mid - Autumn Festival stocking support the short - term strength of the spot market, but current chicken culling is less than expected and cold - storage egg inventory pressure is high. In the second half of the month, stocking intensity is expected to weaken, and the upside potential of spot prices should not be overly optimistic [6]. - Long - term: Current breeding profits have turned positive again, and the average age of culled chickens is still relatively high. If the scale of chicken culling by farmers is less than expected, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter will re - emerge [6]. Trading Strategy - Do not chase long positions. Before large - scale concentrated chicken culling occurs, maintain the idea of shorting on highs. The pressure levels for the 2511 contract have shifted up to 3200 - 3270, the 2512 contract to 3300 - 3360, the 2601 contract to 3400 - 3450, and the 2602 contract to 3150 - 3160. Farmers can also pay attention to the selling - hedge opportunities to lock in breeding profits after the 2607 and 2608 contracts rise [6].

Group 1: Report Summary - As of September 14, 2025, the coking coal inventory at the Ganqimao Port was 262,000 tons, with a slight weekly increase of 7,000 tons [1] - In August 2025, the average daily customs clearance was 1 vehicle. After entering September, the number of customs - cleared vehicles increased significantly, with the average monthly customs clearance reaching 1,246 vehicles per day [1] Group 2: Data Details - The weekly inventory data of Mongolian coking coal in the Ganqimao supervision area from June 7, 2025, to September 13, 2025, shows a general downward trend with some fluctuations [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The global economy maintains an upward trend, with China implementing the AI+ initiative, the energy storage installed capacity set to double in three years, and significant capital inflows into Chinese bonds and stocks in August. The US may expand its interest rate cut in September, and the eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August exceeded the boom-bust line for the first time since June 2022. Global AI giants are in a "military race" of model + intelligent agent, accelerating AI infrastructure development [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Information - Citi believes the August CPI report provides more basis for the Fed to start a rate cut cycle, expecting a cumulative 125 basis points cut in the next five FOMC meetings, with the policy rate potentially dropping below 3% [1] - China's Ministry of Commerce announced an anti-discrimination investigation into US measures in the integrated circuit field against China, and will take corresponding measures against the US based on actual situations [1] - Global AI giants are in a "military race" of model + intelligent agent, driving demand explosion. B - end applications are shifting from technical verification to large - scale monetization, and opportunities in the cloud computing track are emerging [1] - Alibaba open - sourced the Qwen3 - Next - 80B - A3B new architecture model, with a 90% reduction in training cost compared to Qwen3 - 32B, a 10 - fold increase in inference efficiency, and excellent performance in scenarios over 32K [1] - China released the "Special Action Plan for Large - scale Construction of New Energy Storage (2025 - 2027)", aiming for a new energy storage installed capacity of over 180 million kilowatts by 2027, which means it will double in three years [1] - As AI extends from training to inference and edge devices, the demand for large - capacity memory is increasing, with supply tightening. Micron may raise product prices by 20% - 30%, and automotive electronics prices may rise by 70% [1] Global Economic Logic - China implements the AI+ initiative, and the energy storage installed capacity will double in three years. In August, a net inflow of $39 billion into Chinese bonds and stocks occurred. The US non - farm payrolls data was significantly revised down by 911,000 people, and the interest rate cut in September may be expanded. The US Court of Appeals ruled that "reciprocal tariffs" are illegal. US capital goods imports in July reached a record $95.8 billion, and the manufacturing industry is accelerating. The eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August exceeded the boom - bust line for the first time since June 2022. Tesla will start mass - producing Optimus robots in 2026. Global AI giants are in a "military race" of model + intelligent agent, accelerating AI infrastructure development [1]

Report Overview - Report title: "上方压力显现 玉米重回区间运行 会议预期扰动 生猪期货近弱远强 现货涨幅有限 鸡蛋高空思路不变" [2] - Report date: September 12, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Xiaojun [3] Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Corn: The upward pressure on the corn futures market has emerged, and the market has returned to the range-bound operation. Traders are advised to take profits on long positions and consider short positions or stay on the sidelines [4][5]. - Hog: The short - term market sentiment is affected by the upcoming industry meeting, but the supply - demand logic will still dominate the near - month contracts. Traders are advised to look for short - selling opportunities in the near - month contracts and focus on the change in sow inventory in the far - month contracts [9][10][11]. - Egg: The short - term increase in egg prices is limited, and the strategy of short - selling on rallies remains unchanged until large - scale concentrated chicken culling occurs [15][16][17]. Summary by Commodity Corn Important Information - On September 12, the prices at the north - south ports were stable, with the purchase price at Jinzhou Port being 2240 - 2260 yuan/ton and the transaction price at Shekou Port being 2370 yuan/ton [4]. - On September 12, the purchase prices of deep - processing enterprises showed mixed trends. The average purchase price in Northeast China was 2205 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton from the previous day, while that in North China was 2374 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton [4]. - On September 12, the transaction rate of imported corn auctions organized by China Grain Reserves Network was 34%, up from 26% in the previous period [4]. - As of September 11, the wheat - corn price difference in Shandong turned positive, reaching +50 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. - As of September 12, the number of corn futures warehouse receipts decreased by 4420 to 47454 [4]. - As of the end of the 37th week of 2025, the grain inventory at Guangzhou Port was 1.853 million tons, up 1.70% month - on - month and 14.59% year - on - year. Corn inventory was 617,000 tons, down 6.94% month - on - month but up 64.53% year - on - year [5]. Market Logic - In the short term, the price in Northeast China has stabilized and strengthened while that in North China has weakened. The lower support for the market is the port price equivalent to the new - season corn planting cost, and the upper pressure is the wheat - corn price difference [5]. - In the medium term, trading should focus on the drivers of the new - season corn, and a wide - range trading strategy should be adopted [5]. - In the long term, the pricing logic of import substitution and planting cost remains, and policy guidance should be closely monitored [5]. Trading Strategy - On the night of Monday this week, it was suggested to take profits on long positions in contracts 2511 and 2601. On Tuesday morning, it was recommended to stay on the sidelines or take short positions. Currently, the view remains unchanged. The first support for contract 2511 is 2190, and the second support is 2150. The support for contract 2601 is in the range of 2150 - 2160 [5]. Hog Important Information - On September 12, the national average hog price was 13.29 yuan/kg, up 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous day. It is expected that the hog price will remain weak and stable on the morning of September 13 [9]. - In July 2025, the number of fertile sows in stock was 40.42 million, 103.64% of the normal level. The number of sows culled by large - scale pig farms in July increased by 2.1% month - on - month [9]. - On September 12, the price difference between fat and standard hogs was 0.22 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [9]. - On September 11, the average weekly slaughter weight of hogs was 124.32 kg, up 0.66 kg from the previous week [9]. - On September 12, the number of hog futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 428 [9]. - The Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will hold a symposium on hog production capacity regulation for enterprises on September 16 [9]. Market Logic - In the short term, the weak supply - demand relationship is pressuring the hog price to run weakly, and the upcoming industry meeting will affect the short - term market sentiment [10]. - In the medium term, the increase in the number of newborn piglets from February to June implies an expected increase in hog supply in the second half of the year, limiting the upside potential of the hog price [10]. - In the long term, the number of fertile sows is still above the normal level, and if there is no epidemic, the hog production capacity will continue to be realized throughout the year [10]. Trading Strategy - After the impact of the meeting fades, the near - month contracts will follow the supply - demand logic. Traders should look for short - selling opportunities in the near - month contracts, while the far - month contracts should focus on the expected difference in sow culling driven by policies. Specific support and pressure levels are provided for different contracts [11]. Egg Important Information - On September 12, egg prices were stable with a slight increase. The average price in the main production areas was 3.55 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin from the previous day, and the average price in the main sales areas was 3.9 yuan/jin, up 0.06 yuan/jin [15]. - On September 12, the inventory levels were basically stable, with the average production - link inventory being 0.91 days and the circulation - link inventory being 0.99 days [15]. - On September 12, the average price of old hens was 4.52 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day. As of September 11, the average culling age of old hens was 495 days, unchanged from the previous week [15]. - In August, the number of laying hens in stock was about 1.365 billion, a month - on - month increase of 0.66% and a year - on - year increase of 5.98%. The theoretical estimated number of laying hens in stock in September is 1.353 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8% [15]. Market Logic - In the medium and short term, the start of school and Mid - Autumn Festival stocking support the spot price to be stable and slightly strong. However, the lower - than - expected culling of hens and high cold - storage egg inventory limit the upside potential of the price [16]. - In the long term, the focus is on the extent of hen culling. If the egg - laying chicken farming profit turns positive in the third quarter, the supply pressure may re - emerge in the fourth quarter [16]. Trading Strategy - The strategy of short - selling on rallies remains unchanged until large - scale concentrated chicken culling occurs. Specific pressure levels are provided for different contracts. In addition, breeding enterprises can consider selling hedging opportunities in contracts 2607 and 2608 to lock in breeding profits [17].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel and ore are expected to oscillate in the short term, with the pressure level for rebar at 3230 and the support level at 3050; for hot-rolled coil, the pressure level is 3450 and the support level is 3250; for the main iron ore contract 2601, the pressure level is 833 and the support level is 750. In the medium term, there is still room for an upward trend, and the lows of rebar and hot-rolled coil in the second half of the year are higher than those in the first half [4]. - The overall supply of steel has decreased, but there is a structural differentiation. After major events, blast furnace steelmaking has gradually recovered, while the reduction of electric arc furnace steel is significant. The supply of long products has decreased, and the supply of plate products has increased. The demand in "Golden September" has improved, but the recovery momentum is not stable, and there is insufficient driving force for price increases [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Supply - The total supply of the five major steel products this week was 8.5724 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 34,100 tons, a decline of 0.4%. After major events, blast furnace steelmaking has gradually recovered, with the daily output of molten iron this week at 240,550 tons, a week-on-week increase of 11,710 tons, slightly higher than the level before the military parade. The reduction of electric arc furnace steel is significant. As of September 11, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3,341 yuan/ton, with an average profit loss of 151 yuan/ton and a valley electricity profit loss of 55 yuan/ton, a day-on-day decrease of 6 yuan/ton. The production enthusiasm of electric arc furnace steel is limited. The supply of long products has decreased, and the supply of plate products has increased [17]. Steel Inventory - The total steel inventory this week was 15.1461 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 139,100 tons, an increase of 0.93% [18]. Iron Ore Supply and Inventory - From September 1 to September 7, the total global iron ore shipments were 27.562 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 8.006 million tons. The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 23.296 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 5.725 million tons. The Australian shipments were 18.224 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 722,000 tons, of which the volume shipped from Australia to China was 15.313 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 15,000 tons. The Brazilian shipments were 5.072 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 5.003 million tons. The total iron ore shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 22.67 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 5.411 million tons. The Australian shipments were 17.795 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 320,000 tons, of which the volume shipped from Australia to China was 14.922 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 418,000 tons. The Brazilian shipments were 4.875 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 5.092 million tons. The total arrival volume at 47 ports in China from September 1 to September 7 was 25.729 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 721,000 tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 24.48 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 780,000 tons; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 13.2 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 192,000 tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports across the country this week was 144.5612 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 304,000 tons [27]. Important Industry News - According to the statistics of the main excavator manufacturers by the China Construction Machinery Industry Association, in August 2025, 16,523 excavators of various types were sold, a year-on-year increase of 12.8%. Among them, the domestic sales volume was 7,685 units, a year-on-year increase of 14.8%; the export volume was 8,838 units, a year-on-year increase of 11.1%. From January to August 2025, a total of 154,181 excavators were sold, a year-on-year increase of 17.2%; among them, the domestic sales volume was 80,628 units, a year-on-year increase of 21.5%; the export volume was 73,553 units, a year-on-year increase of 12.8%. In August 2025, China imported 500,000 tons of steel, an increase of 48,000 tons from the previous month, a month-on-month increase of 10.6%; from January to August, the cumulative steel imports were 3.977 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 14.1%. In August 2025, China imported 105.225 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates, an increase of 602,000 tons from the previous month, a month-on-month increase of 0.6%; from January to August, the cumulative imports of iron ore and its concentrates were 801.618 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%. In August 2025, China exported 763,000 vehicles. From January to July, the cumulative export volume was 4.928 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 20.5%. In August 2025, China exported 403.8 million household appliances. From January to August, the cumulative export volume was 2.993412 billion units, a year-on-year increase of 1.4%. By 2027, more than five professional large models will be promoted for in-depth application in industries such as power grids, power generation, coal, and oil and gas. On September 3, the total scrap steel inventory of 300 representative long and short process steel mills across the country was 494,400 tons, a decrease of 28,600 tons from the previous day, a decrease of 0.58%; the daily consumption volume was 54,370 tons, a decrease of 0.28% from the previous day; the daily arrival volume was 51,510 tons, an increase of 0.27% from the previous day. In August 2025, China exported 951,000 tons of steel, a decrease of 32,600 tons from the previous month, a month-on-month decrease of 3.3%; from January to August, the cumulative steel exports were 7.749 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.0% [12][13].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global economy is moving upward. There is a significant influx of foreign capital into China's stock and bond markets, and the Chinese capital market is booming. The Fed is likely to increase the rate - cut amplitude in September, and different countries and regions show varying economic trends. In terms of asset allocation, it is advisable to be bullish on Chinese equity assets and gold and silver [4][5][8] - Summary by Related Catalogs Global Economic Outlook - China implemented the "Artificial Intelligence +" initiative, with an 8 - month export year - on - year increase of 4.4%. In August, a total of $39 billion flowed into Chinese bonds and stocks. The US significantly revised down 912,000 non - farm payrolls, and the Fed may increase the interest - rate cut amplitude in September. The US Court of Appeals ruled that "reciprocal tariffs" are illegal. In July, US capital goods imports reached $95.8 billion, a new record, indicating an acceleration of manufacturing reshoring. The Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August broke above the boom - bust line for the first time since June 2022. Tesla plans to start mass - producing Optimus robots in 2026. Oracle signed a $300 - billion, 5 - year contract with OpenAI, accelerating AI infrastructure [7] - The global economy maintains an upward trend. The revision of US non - farm payrolls strengthens the Fed's decision to cut interest rates in September. The Fed's dovish stance and the strange balance in the labor market have been formed. In August, the US CPI increased year - on - year and month - on - month as expected, while the PPI increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month, lower than expected. The decline in the US PPI year - on - year in August was mainly due to the unexpected decline in PPI services year - on - year. In July, US capital goods and intermediate goods imports showed positive trends, and the manufacturing PMI accelerated expansion [7][9][14][17] - The Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August returned to the expansion range. India's manufacturing and service PMIs in August reached new highs, with continuous expansion for over three years. Japan's long - term government bond yields reached a new high [34][36][38] Asset Allocation - Be bullish on Chinese equity assets and gold and silver. The US significantly revised down non - farm payrolls, and the Fed may increase the interest - rate cut amplitude in September. The Shanghai Composite Index is approaching 3900 points again, with off - market funds accelerating into the market. In August, a total of $39 billion flowed into Chinese bonds and stocks, and global hedge funds' net purchases of Chinese stocks reached a new high since September 2024. Oracle's large - scale contract with OpenAI accelerates AI infrastructure. Bond funds are flowing into the stock market, causing a decline in 30 - year Treasury bond futures. Gold and silver in London are showing upward trends. After the Fed cuts interest rates, the Wenhua Commodity Index may have an upward opportunity [40][41][42] - The Shanghai Composite Index is approaching 3900 points for the third time, with the stock - market wealth effect spreading. The Sci - tech Innovation Board is strengthening, with related ETFs rising continuously. The market style is shifting towards mid - cap growth, and the CSI 500 index futures contract has reached a new high. The CSI 1000 and CSI 500 index 2512 contracts can continue the strategy of earning both index - rising and basis - spread returns [47][49][54]