Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the energy and chemical sector (pure benzene) is "oscillating" [2] Core View of the Report - Amidst continuous global geopolitical disturbances, crude oil prices have stabilized and rebounded. This week, the pure benzene inventory at Jiangsu ports continued to increase, while the downstream demand-side operating rates improved. In the short term, the pure benzene price will experience wide fluctuations, with the reference range for the 03 contract being 5450 - 5630 yuan/ton. Future focus should be on port arrivals and the future transaction prices in the US dollar-denominated pure benzene market [2] Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - On Monday night, the price of the main contract futures BZ2603 dropped by 12 yuan to 5523 yuan/ton. The spot price in the mainstream East China region was 5420 yuan/ton (a week-on-week increase of 85), and in Shandong, it was 5315 yuan/ton (a week-on-week increase of 92). In terms of positions, long positions increased by 1325 lots to 20300 lots, and short positions increased by 698 lots to 25500 lots [2] Important Information - Supply: In December, the domestic pure benzene production was 1.934 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%. In November, the pure benzene import volume was 459,600 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 7.4%. The 2025 November import volume was 459,624.998 tons, with a month-on-month decline of 7.48% and a year-on-year increase of 5.93%. The cumulative import volume was 5.071144069 million tons, a 33.61% increase compared to the same period last year [2] - Inventory: The total commercial inventory of the Jiangsu pure benzene port samples was 324,000 tons, up 6000 tons from the previous inventory of 318,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.89%. It was 149,700 tons higher than the inventory of 174,300 tons in the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 85.89%. From January 5th to January 11th, the estimated arrivals were about 36,000 tons, and the pickups were about 30,000 tons [2] - Demand: The styrene operating rate was 70.9%, a month-on-month increase of 0.4%; the phenol operating rate was 85%, a month-on-month increase of 5%; the caprolactam operating rate was 74.2%, a month-on-month decrease of 1.1%; the aniline operating rate was 61.3%, a month-on-month increase of 1.5%; the adipic acid operating rate was 67.6%, a month-on-month increase of 0.6%. Caprolactam factories started self-disciplinary production cuts, and there was an expected reduction in monthly pure benzene demand from December to January. The second line of Guangxi Hengyi's caprolactam was put into operation [2] - International Oil Prices: Due to the ongoing instability in the Iranian situation and potential supply risks, international oil prices rose. The NYMEX crude oil futures 02 contract increased by 0.38 dollars/barrel to 59.50 dollars/barrel, a month-on-month increase of 0.64%; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 03 contract increased by 0.53 dollars/barrel to 63.87 dollars/barrel, a month-on-month increase of 0.84%. The Chinese INE crude oil futures 2603 contract rose 9.9 to 436.8 yuan/barrel, and in the night session, it rose 0.2 to 437 yuan/barrel [2] - Other News: On January 11th, it was reported that the US District of Columbia Federal Prosecutor's Office had launched a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, regarding the renovation project of the Fed's Washington headquarters building and whether Powell lied to Congress about the project's scope [2] Market Logic - With continuous global geopolitical disturbances, crude oil prices have stabilized and rebounded. This week, the pure benzene inventory at Jiangsu ports continued to increase, while the downstream demand-side operating rates improved. In the short term, the pure benzene price will experience wide fluctuations, with the reference range for the 03 contract being 5450 - 5630 yuan/ton. Future focus should be on port arrivals and the future transaction prices in the US dollar-denominated pure benzene market [2] Trading Strategy - Reduce long positions and wait and see [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the energy and chemical industry (specifically for bottle chips) is "oscillating" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - With continuous global geopolitical disturbances, the crude oil price has stabilized and rebounded. Last week, the supply of bottle chips increased slightly, and downstream factories mainly made rigid restocking. The expected commissioning of new plants has little impact on the market. In the short term, the price of bottle chips will oscillate following the raw materials, with the reference range for the main contract PR2603 being 5980 - 6200 yuan/ton. The trading strategy is to reduce long - positions and wait and see [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Contents Market Conditions - On the night of Monday, the main price of bottle chips fell by 46 yuan to 6042 yuan/ton. The price of East China water - grade bottle chips was 6110 yuan/ton (+80), and the price of South China bottle chips was 6150 yuan/ton (+70). Long - position holdings increased by 3355 lots to 66,500 lots, and short - position holdings increased by 2840 lots to 68,500 lots [1] Important Information - In terms of supply, cost, and profit, the domestic polyester bottle chip production this week was 334,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 600 tons. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic polyester bottle chips was 72.27%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.01. The production cost of polyester bottle chips was 5592 yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 31 yuan/ton. The weekly production gross profit of polyester bottle chips was - 166 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton [1] - In November 2025, China's polyester bottle chip exports were 533,000 tons, an increase of 9900 tons from the previous month. The cumulative export volume in 2025 was 5.865 million tons [1] - In December 2025, the output of China's polyester bottle chip industry was 1.4789 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.48%. The capacity utilization rate this month was 73.12%, a month - on - month increase of 0.1 percentage points [1] - Due to the continued instability in the Iranian situation and potential supply risks worrying the market, international oil prices rose. The NYMEX crude oil futures 02 contract was at 59.50, up 0.38 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 0.64%; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 03 contract was at 63.87, up 0.53 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 0.84%. The China INE crude oil futures 2603 contract rose 9.9 to 436.8 yuan/barrel, and rose 0.2 to 437 yuan/barrel in the night session [1] - According to CCTV news, on January 11, local time, it was learned from informed officials that the US District of Columbia Federal Prosecutor's Office has launched a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. The investigation involves the renovation project of the Fed's Washington headquarters building and whether Powell lied to Congress about the scope of the project [1]

早盘提示 Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 13 日 星期二 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | | 1、美国哥伦比亚特区联邦检察官办公室已就美国联邦储备委员会华盛顿总部翻修 | | | | | 相关事宜，对美联储主席鲍威尔启动刑事调查。鲍威尔说，刑事指控的威胁，实因 | | | | | 美联储依据对公共利益的最佳评估设定利率，而非追随总统的偏好。 | | | | | 2、中国 2025 年 12 月向国际电信联盟申请了超 20 万颗卫星的频轨资源，其中 19 | | | | | 万颗来自刚成立的"国家队"无线电创新院。这是无线电领域首家以技术创新和成 | | | | | 果转化为目标的新型研发机构，意味着卫星频轨资源申请已上升至国家战略层面。 | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall report data is neutral, but in the context of the hot sentiment in the overall commodity market, with the settlement of uncertain factors, the U.S. takeover of Venezuelan oil exports, the rapid recovery of international crude oil prices, the resurgence of the biodiesel concept, and hot money flowing quickly into low - priced palm oil. Technically, the palm oil 2605 contract on the daily line level breaks through the downward channel. Macro - level factors drive the financial attributes to stand out, and long positions in palm oil should continue to be held [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Malaysia Palm Oil Production - In December 2026, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1,829,761 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.46%, higher than the market expectation. The previous value was 1,936,000 tons, and the predicted value was 1,760,000 tons [2]. Malaysia Palm Oil Exports - In December 2026, Malaysia's palm oil exports were 1,316,522 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.52%, higher than the market expectation. The previous value was 1,213,000 tons, and the predicted value was 1,250,000 tons [1][2][3]. Malaysia Palm Oil Imports - In December 2026, Malaysia's palm oil imports were 33,292 tons, a month - on - month increase of 43.64%, in line with expectations. The previous value was 23,000 tons, and the predicted value was 30,000 tons [2]. Malaysia Palm Oil Inventory - In December 2026, Malaysia's palm oil inventory was 3,050,598 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.58%, higher than the market expectation. The previous value was 2,835,000 tons, and the predicted value was 2,970,000 tons [2][3].

Morning session notice 早盘提示 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 01 月 12 日星期一 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 研究员： 王子健 从业资格：F03087965 交易咨询资格：Z0019551 联系方式：17803978037 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | ICE3 月合约结算价 64.41 ...

本次退税政策正式生放时间为4月,预计海外抢运需求将对一季度产业链接产及价格形成较好支撑,全年来看均存在拾出口预期。中长期 看,在价格传导过程中,议价能力更强的头部企业或将扩大海外市场份额,缺乏竞争力的产能将面临淘汰出清,预计近期碳酸锂价格偏强运 行。 为避免企业在国内外重复缴税、提振产品国际竞争力，中国自1985年开始实施出口退税政策。本次逐步取消出口政策旨在破除行业低价竞 争,走向反内卷,同时也是对国内相关企业成本及技术方面国际竞争力信心的体现。 研究员:王琛 从业资格 F0276812 交易咨询:Z0021310 联系方式:wangchen@greendh.com 市场快讯-电池产品出口退税逐步取消,抢出口预期带动碳酸锂上涨 > 碳酸锂 2026年1月12日 1月9日财政部和税务总局公告、自2026年4月1日起、取消光伏等产品增值税出口退税。 2026年4月1日起至2026年12月31日，将电池产品的组值税出口退税率由 9%下滑至69%;2027年1月1日起，取消自池产品增值税出口退税。此前改策动态，2024年12月1日起，光伏產片、电池片、组件出口退税率已向13%下明至9%，市场对 本轮出口退税取消有一 ...

市场快讯-电池产品出口退税逐步取消,抢出口预期带动碳酸锂上涨 1月9日财政部和税务总局公告、自2026年4月1日起、取消光伏等产品增值税出口退税。 2026年4月1日起至2026年12月31日，将电池产品的组值税出口退税率由 9%下滑至69%;2027年1月1日起，取消自池产品增值税出口退税。此前改策动态，2024年12月1日起，光伏產片、电池片、组件出口退税率已向13%下明至9%，市场对 本轮出口退税取消有一定预期。 本次退税政策正式生放时间为4月,预计海外抢运需求将对一季度产业链接产及价格形成较好支撑,全年来看均存在拾出口预期。中长期 看,在价格传导过程中,议价能力更强的头部企业或将扩大海外市场份额,缺乏竞争力的产能将面临淘汰出清,预计近期碳酸锂价格偏强运 行。 为避免企业在国内外重复缴税、提振产品国际竞争力，中国自1985年开始实施出口退税政策。本次逐步取消出口政策旨在破除行业低价竞 争,走向反内卷,同时也是对国内相关企业成本及技术方面国际竞争力信心的体现。 > 碳酸锂 2026年1月12日 动。未经我公司同意,任何人不得对不能看进行任何龙式的发布、复制或对不批告进行有序俱意的册节和 数据采源:wind ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - As of January 10, 2026, the average daily number of customs - cleared vehicles in January was 1,210, and short - haul freight rates dropped to 65 yuan, close to the price level in early August 2025. Although the average daily customs - cleared vehicles in January temporarily decreased from 1,431 in December 2025, it is still the highest customs - clearance level in the past three years [1][7] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 VIP Customer Data - Ganqimaodu Port Daily Customs - Clearance Data - From December 19, 2025, to January 10, 2026, the number of customs - cleared vehicles, AGV numbers, and the total number of customs - cleared vehicles fluctuated. For example, on December 19, 2025, the number of customs - cleared vehicles was 1,300, AGV was 150, and the total was 1,450; on January 10, 2026, the number of customs - cleared vehicles was 1,218, AGV was 62, and the total was 1,280. The short - haul freight rate was mainly 90 yuan from December 19 - 23 and then dropped to 70 yuan from December 24 - January 9, and further dropped to 65 yuan on January 6 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the vegetable oil sector, due to the strengthening of international crude oil, the activation of the biodiesel concept, and the influx of hot money, the overall price center of vegetable oils has shifted upwards. For the double - meal sector, the short - term outlook is neutral to bearish, and the mid - line maintains a bottom - oscillating mindset [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Vegetable Oil Sector Market Review - On January 9, international crude oil strengthened, the biodiesel concept was active, and hot money flowed in, causing the vegetable oil sector to rebound. The closing prices of the main and secondary contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all showed varying degrees of increase compared to the previous day, with the exception of the decrease in positions of the main and secondary contracts of rapeseed oil [1] Important Information - China is willing to cancel tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in exchange for Canada canceling tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles - In November 2025, the US soybean crushing volume was 6.615 million short tons, lower than that in October but higher than the same period last year - Indian buyers have locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from South America from April to July 2026 - From December 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 9.12% month - on - month, while exports increased by 1.6% - Indonesia plans to implement the B50 mandatory addition plan in the second half of 2026 - As of the first weekend of 2026, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils decreased by 1.04 million tons week - on - week, a decrease of 0.46% [1][2] Market Logic - Externally, concerns about supply and geopolitical conflicts have led to a continuous rise in international crude oil, boosting the strength of US soybean oil. Domestically, soybean oil has broken through the pressure level, palm oil has strengthened due to the rise in international crude oil and the biodiesel concept, and rapeseed oil has recovered its decline due to the strong prices of soybean and palm oil [2] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The overall price center of vegetable oils has shifted upwards. Specific support and pressure levels are provided for each contract. Arbitrage: Exit the previously concerned strategy of expanding the soybean - palm oil price difference [2] Double - Meal Sector Market Review - On January 9, due to the expectation of the visit of the Canadian government to China and Sino - Canadian negotiations, the market was worried about the entry of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal into China, causing rapeseed meal to fall sharply and dragging down soybean meal. The main and secondary contracts of soybean meal showed a slight increase, while the main and secondary contracts of rapeseed meal showed a decline [2] Important Information - In the 2026/2027 season, US farmers will reduce corn planting and increase soybean planting to 85 million acres - As of December 18, 2025, US soybean exports to China increased compared to the previous week but were lower than the same period last year - StoneX predicts that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/2026 season may reach 178.9 million tons - As of January 3, 2026, Brazil's soybean harvest progress was 0.1%, lower than the same period last year and the five - year average - As of December 30, 2025, Argentina's soybean sowing was 82% complete, with good growth conditions - Brazil's soybean exports in December 2025 increased by 69% year - on - year, and it is estimated to reach a record 112 million tons in 2026 - As of the first weekend of 2026, domestic imported soybean inventory increased slightly, while imported rapeseed inventory remained flat. Domestic soybean meal inventory decreased, and the contract volume increased [2][3] Market Logic - Externally, the overall outlook is neutral to bearish, with strong bottom support for US soybeans but limited rebound space due to Brazil's expected high - yield. Domestically, the spot price is affected by factors such as oil refinery production and downstream demand, and the base price is prone to rise and difficult to fall. The overall double - meal maintains a bottom - oscillating mindset [3] Trading Strategy - Double - meal mid - line maintains a bottom - oscillating mindset, with intraday trading. Specific support and pressure levels are provided for each contract. No arbitrage strategy is recommended [3][4]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2) Core View of the Report - Global geopolitical disturbances are continuous, and crude oil prices have stabilized and rebounded. Last week, the supply of bottle chips increased slightly, and downstream factories mainly replenished their stocks rigidly. The expected commissioning of new plants has little impact on the market. In the short term, the price of bottle chips will fluctuate strongly following the raw materials [1]. 3) Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On the Friday night session, the main price of bottle chips rose by 118 yuan to 6140 yuan/ton. The price of East China water bottle - grade bottle chips was 6030 yuan/ton (-5), and the price of South China bottle chips was 6080 yuan/ton (-10). In terms of positions, long positions increased by 3144 lots to 63,700 lots, and short positions increased by 3102 lots to 65,600 lots [1]. Important Information - **Supply and cost - profit**: This week, the domestic polyester bottle chip production was 334,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 600 tons. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic polyester bottle chips was 72.27%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.01. The production cost of polyester bottle chips was 5592 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 31 yuan/ton. The weekly production gross profit of polyester bottle chips was - 166 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 15 yuan/ton [1]. - **Export volume**: In November 2025, China's polyester bottle chip exports were 533,000 tons, an increase of 9900 tons from the previous month. The cumulative export volume in 2025 was 5.865 million tons [1]. - **December 2025 production**: In December 2025, the output of China's polyester bottle chip industry was 1.4789 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.48%. The capacity utilization rate this month was 73.12%, a month - on - month increase of 0.1 percentage points [1]. - **Crude oil price**: The market believes that the instability of the Russia - Ukraine and Israel - Iran situations has increased, and the potential supply risk has risen, leading to an increase in international oil prices. The NYMEX crude oil futures 02 contract rose 1.36 dollars/barrel to 59.12 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 2.35%. The ICE Brent crude oil futures 03 contract rose 1.35 dollars/barrel to 63.34 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 2.18%. The China INE crude oil futures 2602 contract rose 7.8 to 425.8 yuan/ton, and rose 11.9 to 437.7 yuan/ton in the night session [1]. - **Military news**: According to the US "The War Zone" website on January 5th, open - source flight tracking data and observations from ground observers showed that a large number of US military aircraft suddenly flew to Europe recently. The number of military aircraft dispatched in a short period and their take - off locations have sparked speculation about possible special operations in the region by the US military in the future [1]. Market Logic - Global geopolitical disturbances are continuous, and crude oil prices have stabilized and rebounded. Last week, the supply of bottle chips increased slightly, and downstream factories mainly replenished their stocks rigidly. The expected commissioning of new plants has little impact on the market. In the short term, the price of bottle chips will fluctuate strongly following the raw materials [1]. Trading Strategy - The reference range for the main contract is 6000 - 6280 yuan/ton. The trading strategy is to wait and see or go long on dips [1].