Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - China's economy showed stable growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with GDP growing by 5.2% year - on - year at constant prices. The service and industrial sectors played important roles, and consumption, investment, and net exports all contributed to economic growth [3]. - Industrial production was stable, and the service industry was on an upward trend, strongly supporting economic growth. Consumption potential continued to be released, and investment played a key role in promoting traditional industrial transformation and upgrading. Net exports maintained stable growth [3][4][5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs GDP - In the first three quarters of 2025, China's GDP was 1,015,036 billion yuan, growing by 5.2% year - on - year at constant prices. In Q3, GDP was 354,500 billion yuan, growing by 4.8% year - on - year and 1.1% quarter - on - quarter [3]. - The added values of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries in the first three quarters were 58,061 billion yuan, 364,020 billion yuan, and 592,955 billion yuan respectively, with year - on - year growth rates of 3.8%, 4.9%, and 5.4%, and contributions to economic growth of 4.7%, 34.6%, and 60.7% [3]. Industry - In the first three quarters, industrial added value increased by 6.1% year - on - year, driving economic growth by 1.8 percentage points. Manufacturing added value grew by 6.5%, higher than the industrial growth rate. In Q3, industrial added value increased by 5.8% year - on - year, driving economic growth by 1.7 percentage points [3]. - The capacity utilization rate of large - scale industrial enterprises in Q3 2025 was 74.6%, up 0.6 percentage points from Q2 and down 0.5 percentage points from the same period last year [3]. Service - In the first three quarters, service industry added value was 592,955 billion yuan, growing by 5.4% year - on - year, accounting for 58.4% of GDP, up 0.8 percentage points from the same period last year, and contributing 60.7% to national economic growth, driving GDP growth by 3.1 percentage points [4]. - In Q3, service industry added value was 202,641 billion yuan, growing by 5.4% year - on - year, accounting for 57.2% of GDP, contributing 61.8% to national economic growth, and driving GDP growth by 3.0 percentage points [4]. Consumption - Consumption potential continued to be released. In the first three quarters, the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth was 53.5%, driving GDP growth by 2.8 percentage points. In Q3, it was 56.6%, driving GDP growth by 2.7 percentage points [4]. Investment - Investment played a key role. In the first three quarters, the contribution rate of capital formation to economic growth was 17.5%, driving GDP growth by 0.9 percentage points. In Q3, it was 18.9%, driving GDP growth by 0.9 percentage points [5]. - In the first three quarters, infrastructure investment increased by 1.1% year - on - year, driving total investment growth by 0.2 percentage points. Internet and related service investment grew by 20.6%, and water transportation investment grew by 12.8% [5]. - From January to September, real estate development investment was 677.06 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. Residential investment was 520.46 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.9% [5]. Import and Export - Net exports maintained stable growth. In the first three quarters, the contribution rate of goods and services net exports to economic growth was 29.0%, driving GDP growth by 1.5 percentage points. In Q3, it was 24.5%, driving GDP growth by 1.2 percentage points [6]. Prices - In the first three quarters, consumer prices were generally stable, with CPI down 0.1% year - on - year. Core CPI increased by 0.6% year - on - year, with the growth rate expanding by 0.2 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [6]. - PPI was down 2.8% year - on - year in the first three quarters, with a decline of 2.9% in Q3, narrowing by 0.3 percentage points compared to Q2 [6].

Report Summary 1. Hot News - The central bank will continue a moderately loose monetary policy to ensure liquidity, support consumption and investment, and maintain financial market stability and a stable RMB exchange rate [2] - The national fiscal revenue in the first three quarters was 16.39 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%, and the fiscal expenditure was 20.81 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.1% [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will adjust the price limit range and margin ratios for gold and silver futures contracts from October 21 [2] - China and the US agreed to hold a new round of economic and trade consultations soon after a video call [2] - The National Energy Administration released an opinion to promote the high - quality development of coal washing [3] 2. Sector Performance - Key sectors to watch: urea, coking coal, Shanghai silver, crude oil, PVC [4] - Night - session price changes of commodity futures main contracts: non - metallic building materials 2.87%, precious metals 32.22%, oilseeds 10.05%, soft commodities 2.63%, non - ferrous metals 20.52%, coal - coking - steel - ore 12.82%, energy 3.06%, chemicals 11.20%, grains 1.08%, agricultural and sideline products 3.55% [4] 3. Sector Position - The chart shows the five - day position changes of commodity futures sectors from October 13 to October 17 [5] 4. Performance of Major Asset Classes | Asset Class | Name | Daily Change (%) | Monthly Change (%) | Year - to - Date Change (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | - 1.95 | - 1.11 | 14.56 | | | SSE 50 | - 1.70 | 1.01 | 10.54 | | | CSI 300 | - 2.26 | - 0.48 | 14.72 | | | CSI 500 | - 2.98 | - 2.44 | 22.54 | | | S&P 500 | 0.53 | - 0.89 | 13.30 | | | Hang Seng Index | - 2.48 | - 3.60 | 25.86 | | | German DAX | - 1.82 | 1.64 | 19.70 | | | Nikkei 225 | - 1.44 | 7.44 | 19.27 | | | FTSE 100 | - 0.86 | 0.92 | 14.46 | | Fixed - Income | 10 - year Treasury Bond Futures | 0.12 | 0.42 | - 0.58 | | | 5 - year Treasury Bond Futures | 0.07 | 0.14 | - 0.71 | | | 2 - year Treasury Bond Futures | 0.01 | 0.01 | - 0.58 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | - 0.17 | - 2.25 | - 1.14 | | | WTI Crude Oil | 0.23 | - 8.15 | - 19.92 | | | London Spot Gold | - 1.73 | 12.15 | 62.01 | | | LME Copper | - 0.38 | 3.15 | 20.79 | | | Wind Commodity Index | 1.18 | 6.50 | 40.16 | | Other | US Dollar Index | 0.21 | 0.54 | - 9.15 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | - 17.90 | 55.47 | 19.77 | [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The international precious metals futures generally closed lower, with the Fed officials' statements strengthening the interest - rate cut expectations and the uncertainty of the US government shutdown driving funds to precious metals. The oil prices rose due to the expected supply - side contraction. Most London base metals declined. The domestic futures contracts showed mixed trends [4]. - The financial market shows a strong recovery in the fund market, with active ETF and index fund issuance. The capital markets are affected by policies and strategic intentions, and the M&A in the stock market is mainly focused on industry integration. The silver price in the industry has risen significantly, and the shipping, banking, and real - estate industries have also had relevant developments. Overseas, there are developments in trade negotiations, visa policies, and credit ratings [34][39]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Night - Market Trends - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold futures fell 0.85% to $4267.90 per ounce (weekly gain of 6.69%), and COMEX silver futures fell 5.01% to $50.63 per ounce (weekly gain of 7.15%) [4]. - **Crude Oil**: The US oil main contract rose 0.46% to $57.25 per barrel (weekly loss of 2.80%), and the Brent crude main contract rose 0.46% to $61.34 per barrel (weekly loss of 2.22%) [4]. - **London Base Metals**: Most declined, such as LME tin down 2.07% to $35030 per ton (weekly loss of 3.16%), LME nickel down 1.03% to $15110 per ton (weekly loss of 1.11%) [4]. - **Domestic Futures**: Some rose, like coking coal up over 3%, coke up over 2%, and soda ash up over 1%. Some declined, such as caustic soda down over 1%, iron ore, corn, and double - gum paper down over 0.5% [6]. Important Information Macro Information - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index rose 149.9 points to 1310.32, while the China Export Container Freight Index fell 4.1% to 973.11 [8]. - If the US government shutdown continues after the weekend, President Trump may increase his actions [9]. - The national general public budget revenue in the first three quarters of 2025 was 16.3876 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.5% [10]. - The central government allocated 500 billion yuan from the local government debt balance limit to local governments [10]. - The US initial jobless claims decreased during the government shutdown, with about 215,000 in the week ending October 11, lower than the previous week's estimate of 234,000 [10]. - Governor Pan Gongsheng of the People's Bank of China pointed out that trade frictions and geopolitical uncertainties drag on the world economy, and emerging markets face challenges [10]. - President Trump will impose new tariffs on imported medium and heavy - duty trucks and parts (25%) and passenger cars (10%) starting from November 1 [12]. - The Israeli Defense Forces resumed the cease - fire in the Gaza Strip [12]. Energy and Chemical Futures - Russia cancelled fuel import tariffs due to decreased domestic demand for petroleum products [14]. - China's styrene factory output in the week ending October 16 was 339,400 tons, a decrease of 2.33% from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 71.88%, a decrease of 1.73% [14]. - Ukrainian President Zelensky discussed energy reconstruction and long - term cooperation with US energy company executives [15]. Metal Futures - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the price limit range and margin ratios of gold and silver futures contracts from October 21 [17]. - Last week, copper inventory increased by 550 tons, aluminum inventory decreased by 2749 tons, etc. in the Shanghai Futures Exchange [19]. - China's 14 - port nickel ore inventory increased by 279,100 wet tons to 15.2884 million wet tons, a 1.86% increase [19]. - Tianqi Lithium's 30,000 - ton lithium hydroxide project in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu, produced the first bag of battery - grade lithium hydroxide that met the standards [19]. - Peru's zinc concentrate output in August 2025 was 146,700 metric tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.2% and a year - on - year increase of 29.2% [19]. - The four - province weekly operating rate of recycled lead from October 10 - 16 was 35.11%, an increase of 1.07 percentage points from the previous week [20]. - The Indonesian president handed over six seized tin smelters to a state - owned enterprise [20]. - As of Thursday, the alumina raw material inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants was 3.126 million tons, an increase of 32,000 tons from the previous week, and the spot market was in a state of oversupply [21]. - The silver price has risen by nearly 70% this year, and most shops in Yongxing County, Hunan, are out of stock [21]. Black - Series Futures - Coke prices in Xingtai and Yuncheng markets are planned to be raised, with wet - quenched coke up 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke up 55 yuan/ton starting from October 20 [24]. - The National Energy Administration issued an opinion on promoting the high - quality development of coal washing [24]. - The inventory of 63 independent ferrosilicon - manganese enterprises reached 262,500 tons, a new high in over 17.5 months, and the inventory of 60 independent ferrosilicon enterprises increased by 4.62% [24]. - The inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 142.7827 million tons, an increase of 2.5377 million tons, and at 47 ports was 149.6187 million tons, an increase of 3.2079 million tons [24]. - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.27%, unchanged from the previous week, and the iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.33%, a decrease of 0.22 percentage points [25]. - The total urban inventory this week was 9.6274 million tons, a decrease of 53,600 tons (- 0.55%) from the previous week [26]. Agricultural Product Futures - The Ministry of Commerce will hold a hearing on the anti - dumping case of pork and pork by - products [29]. - The actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills in the 42nd week (October 11 - 17) was 2.1662 million tons, with an operating rate of 59.59%, 0.12 million tons lower than the forecast [29]. - Argentina's soybean planting area in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 17.5 million hectares, a 2.8% decrease from the previous year [30]. - Canada's rapeseed exports in the week ending October 12 increased by 97.8% to 159,200 tons [31]. - The State Council executive meeting pointed out that this year's grain is expected to have a good harvest, and the supply of vegetable - basket products is sufficient [32]. - Tangrenshen sold 3.7622 million pigs from January to September, and its 2025 pig - slaughtering target is 5 - 5.5 million [32]. Financial Market Finance - As of October 19, 2025, the number of newly established funds this year reached 1,163, exceeding the 1,135 in 2024. Stock - type funds had 661 new establishments, with a issuance scale of 339.396 billion yuan, accounting for 37.45% of the total issuance scale, a 15 - year high since 2011 [34]. - As of October 17, the net inflow of the ETF market in October was 99.161 billion yuan, with equity - based ETFs contributing 92.457 billion yuan, accounting for over 90% [34]. - The two capital - market monetary policy tools created by the People's Bank of China last year injected billions of yuan into the market, boosting investor confidence and reducing A - share volatility [35]. - At least 8 Shanghai - listed companies announced the completion of restructuring in the third quarter, with industry integration as the main line [35]. - The main structural clue in the A - share market is Chinese enterprises going global. After the dividend rotation, new clues such as industrial chain security and end - side AI should be tracked [37]. - The market is in a bull - market consolidation period, and key sectors to focus on include dividends, precious metals, and AI [37]. - The unit net value of the "Sanmao Fund" has risen to 0.9854 yuan, close to full recovery [38]. Industry - The silver price has risen by nearly 70% this year, and most shops in Yongxing County are out of stock [39]. - Banks are in the "year - end battle" phase, and some small and medium - sized banks have started next year's "good start" activities two months earlier [39]. - The China Shipowners' Association signed cooperation MOUs with international shipping institutions, promoting the development of the shipping industry [41]. - The Wuhan Economic and Technological Development Zone launched housing purchase subsidy policies [41]. Overseas - Australian Prime Minister Albanese will meet with US President Trump to discuss issues such as the rare - earth material supply chain [42]. - South Korea and the US are likely to reach a trade agreement before the APEC meeting [43]. - Japan will increase visa application fees in 2026 to address over - tourism and cost - increase issues [43]. - S&P downgraded France's long - term foreign - currency issuer default rating from "AA -" to "A+", the second downgrade in about 1.5 years [44]. - 8 pieces of valuable jewelry were stolen from the Louvre in France [45]. International Stocks - South Korean investors are actively investing in leveraged VIX products, with about $130 million flowing into 2x long VIX futures ETFs this year [46]. Commodities - The international gold price has risen strongly, and gold - related ETFs have seen an expansion in management scale. The long - term support for gold prices remains [47]. - India's oil imports from Russia increased in the first half of October, with an average daily import of about 1.8 million barrels, 250,000 barrels more than in September [47]. Bonds - The performance of "fixed - income plus" products varies greatly, with a difference of over 42 percentage points for mixed - bond - type secondary funds [48]. - Bond ETFs can better capture investment opportunities in the bond market, and the current bond - market adjustment is more favorable [49]. Upcoming Events - At 09:20, the People's Bank of China has 253.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchases maturing [51]. - At 09:30, the monthly report on residential sales prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities will be released [51]. - At 10:00, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the national economic situation [51]. - At 11:50, Bank of Japan board member Takada So will give a speech [51]. - At 16:00, ECB Executive Board member Schnabel will give a speech [51]. - At 22:30, the Bank of Canada will release business and consumer expectation survey reports [51]. - Haixi New Drug will be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [51]. - Ningde Times, China Mobile, and other companies will release financial reports [51]. - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee will be held from October 20 - 23 [51]. - President Trump will meet with Prime Minister Albanese [51]. - At 03:00 the next day, the governors of the German and French central banks will give speeches in New York [51].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic futures market showed mixed performance on October 17, 2025. Metals like gold and silver rose, while some commodities such as caustic soda and glass declined. Different commodities have their own supply - demand situations and market factors influencing their prices, with most being expected to show a weak - to - sideways trend [6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market Overview - As of the close on October 17, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Shanghai gold rose over 3%, lithium carbonate and Shanghai silver rose over 2%, and red dates rose nearly 2%. In terms of declines, caustic soda fell over 4%, glass fell over 3%, and rapeseed meal, live hogs, and SC crude oil fell close to 3%. Among stock index futures, IF, IH, IC, and IM all declined, while treasury bond futures generally rose [6][7] - As of 15:22 on October 17, in terms of capital flow,中证1000 2512 had an inflow of 3.136 billion yuan, Shanghai gold 2512 had an inflow of 1.274 billion yuan, and Shanghai silver 2512 had an inflow of 601 million yuan. Outflows were seen in CSI 300 2512 (749 million yuan), SSE 50 2512 (727 million yuan), and CSI 500 2512 (526 million yuan) [7] 3.2. Market Analysis of Specific Commodities - **Copper**: The price of Shanghai copper opened low, rose, then fell back. Codelco and Aurubis will charge record - high premiums to European customers next year. Supply is expected to be tight due to frequent disruptions at international copper mines and smelter overhauls. Although demand is strong during the peak season, high copper prices have curbed downstream consumption. The overall fundamentals remain tight, and copper prices are still in an upward range [9] - **Lithium Carbonate**: It opened high and trended strongly. Supply is growing steadily, and demand is in the peak season. Both production and demand are strong, with good demand performance during the peak season, increasing downstream production orders, and decreasing warehouse receipts [12] - **Crude Oil**: OPEC + plans to increase production in November, which will increase the supply pressure in the fourth quarter. The demand peak season is over, and the overall oil inventory has increased. With geopolitical risks easing and concerns about demand, the supply - demand situation is weak, and it is recommended to view it as a weak - sideways trend [13][14] - **Asphalt**: The supply side's operating rate has rebounded, and production is expected to decrease slightly in October. Downstream demand is restricted by factors such as funds and weather. With high - pressure on crude oil supply - demand and falling prices, asphalt futures prices are expected to be weakly sideways [15] - **PP**: The downstream operating rate has slightly increased, and the enterprise operating rate has decreased. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the cost side is under pressure due to oil price drops. Although the peak season is approaching, demand is less than expected, and it is expected to be weakly sideways [16][17] - **Plastic**: The operating rate has risen, and the downstream is in the peak season, but demand is less than expected. New production capacity has been added, and the cost side is affected by oil prices. It is expected to be weakly sideways [18] - **PVC**: The supply - side operating rate has decreased, and downstream recovery is limited. Export expectations have weakened, and inventory pressure is high. With no actual anti - involution policies in place, it is expected to be weakly sideways [20] - **Coking Coal**: It opened high and closed up. The supply has increased, while demand is affected by the losses of coking enterprises. However, the peak season provides some support, and attention should be paid to key domestic meetings and coke price increases [21][22] - **Urea**: The futures price opened high and trended weakly. Production is expected to decrease slightly, and demand is affected by weather and market sentiment. Factory inventories are accumulating, and it is expected to be in a short - term low - level sideways trend [23]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The supply - demand situation of crude oil is weak. It is recommended to mainly treat it as a weak and volatile market, and pay attention to the progress of the Sino - US trade war [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On October 5, OPEC+ eight countries decided to further increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, which will exacerbate the crude oil supply pressure in the fourth quarter. The next meeting will be held on November 2nd [1]. - The peak season for crude oil demand has ended. EIA data shows that the increase in US crude oil inventories has exceeded expectations, the decrease in refined oil inventories has exceeded expectations, and the overall oil product inventory has increased. US refineries have entered the autumn maintenance season, and the refinery operating rate has decreased by 6.7 percentage points [1]. - After the discount of Russian crude oil widened, India continued to import Russian crude oil. Trump said that Modi promised that India would not buy oil from Russia, but this would take a process [1]. - The European Commission passed a new draft of sanctions against Russia, including sanctions on shadow tankers and setting the crude oil price cap at $47.6 per barrel. The EU spokesperson said that the European Commission would propose a plan to increase the tariff on Russian oil imports [1]. - Due to Ukraine's increased attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Novak said that Russia would extend the export ban on diesel and gasoline until the end of the year. Currently, Russia's crude oil export volume remains high [1]. - EIA's latest monthly report predicts that the global oil inventory will increase by about 2.6 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025, and the IEA monthly report predicts that the global oil surplus will intensify [1]. - Trump will meet with Putin in Budapest, and the geopolitical risk has cooled down. The United States, Egypt, Turkey, and Qatar signed a cease - fire agreement in Gaza to end the war [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Today, the main crude oil futures contract, the 2512 contract, fell 2.38% to 435.0 yuan per ton, with a minimum price of 433.0 yuan per ton and a maximum price of 445.6 yuan per ton. The trading volume increased by 4,638 to 40,343 lots [2]. Fundamental Tracking - EIA expects the global oil inventory to increase by about 2.6 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025, raises the US crude oil production in 2025 by 90,000 barrels per day to 13.53 million barrels per day, and raises the average Brent crude oil price in 2025 from $67.80 per barrel to $68.64 per barrel. It also expects the Brent crude oil price to fall to $59 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025 and maintains the average Brent crude oil price in 2026 at $51.43 per barrel [3]. - OPEC raises the global oil demand growth rate in 2025 by 10,000 barrels per day to 1.3 million barrels per day and maintains the global oil demand growth rate in 2026 at 1.38 million barrels per day [3]. - IEA lowers the global oil demand growth rate in 2025 by 30,000 barrels per day to 710,000 barrels per day, maintains the global oil demand growth rate in 2026 at 699,000 barrels per day, raises the global oil supply growth rate in 2025 by 300,000 barrels per day to 3 million barrels per day, and raises the global oil supply growth rate in 2026 by 300,000 barrels per day to 2.4 million barrels per day [3]. Inventory and Production Data - On the morning of October 17, EIA data showed that for the week ending October 10 in the US, crude oil inventories increased by 3.524 million barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 288,000 barrels and 3.45% lower than the five - year average. Gasoline inventories decreased by 267,000 barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 75,000 barrels. Refined oil inventories decreased by 4.529 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 294,000 barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 703,000 barrels [4]. - OPEC's latest monthly report shows that OPEC's crude oil production in July was adjusted down by 73,000 barrels per day to 27.47 million barrels per day, and its production in August 2025 increased by 478,000 barrels per day to 27.948 million barrels per day, mainly driven by the production increases in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE [4]. - US crude oil production increased by 124,000 barrels per day to 13.629 million barrels per day in the week of October 3, and is currently 200 barrels per day lower than the historical high set in early December last year, but it is the highest since the week of December 6, 2024 [4]. Demand Data - According to the latest data from the US Energy Agency, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products decreased to 20.669 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.85% compared with the same period last year, and the margin of being higher than the same period last year has slightly increased [5]. - Gasoline weekly demand decreased by 5.20% to 8.455 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 8.713 million barrels per day, a decrease of 3.19% compared with the same period last year [5]. - Diesel weekly demand decreased by 2.60% to 4.233 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 3.984 million barrels per day, an increase of 0.19% compared with the same period last year [5]. - The week - on - week decline in both gasoline and diesel demand led to a 11.48% week - on - week decrease in the single - week supply of US crude oil products [7].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The report predicts that PVC will experience weak and volatile trends in the near term due to factors such as a weakening cost - end, high social inventory, upcoming completion of equipment maintenance at companies like Inner Mongolia Junzheng, average spot trading, and high - level futures warehouse receipts [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs [行情分析] - Upstream calcium carbide prices in the northwest region are stable. The PVC operating rate decreased by 5.94 percentage points to 76.69% but remains at a relatively high level in recent years. After the National Day holiday, downstream PVC recovery was significant, but the downstream operating rate is still at a low level compared to the same period in previous years [1]. - India has postponed the BIS policy for another six months until December 24, 2025. Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China, has lowered its November quotation by $30 - 40 per ton. India announced an increase in anti - dumping duties on imported PVC from mainland China by about $50 per ton on August 14, weakening China's PVC export expectations in the fourth quarter. However, export orders have not weakened significantly after the recent decline in export prices [1]. - As of the week of October 16, PVC social inventory decreased by 0.24% to 1.0338 million tons, 33.52% higher than the same period last year. Although inventory has slightly decreased, it remains high [1][7]. - From January to August 2025, the real estate market is still in the adjustment phase, with significant year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas, and further decreases in year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, and completion. The weekly trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities continued to decline and is near the lowest level in recent years, indicating that real estate improvement requires time [1][6]. - The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is still positive, and the PVC operating rate is higher than in previous years. New production capacities have been put into operation, including Wanhua Chemical's 500,000 - ton/year capacity in August, Tianjin Bohua's 400,000 - ton/year capacity expected to be stably produced by the end of September after trial production in August, Qingdao Gulf's 200,000 - ton/year capacity in early September, and Gansu Yaowang and Jiaxing Jiahua's 300,000 - ton/year capacities operating at low loads after trial production [1][5]. - Six departments have jointly issued a work plan for stable growth in the building materials industry, but no actual policies have been implemented in the PVC industry. Anti - involution and the elimination of old - fashioned devices are macro - policies that will affect future market trends [1]. [期现行情] - In the futures market, the PVC2601 contract oscillated with a reduction in positions. The lowest price was 4,675 yuan/ton, the highest was 4,729 yuan/ton, and it closed at 4,688 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a 0.45% increase and a decrease in open interest by 56,022 lots to 1,212,927 lots [2]. - On October 17, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China rose to 4,630 yuan/ton. The closing price of the V2601 contract was 4,694 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 58 yuan/ton, strengthening by 36 yuan/ton, and the basis is at a moderately low level [3][4]. [基本面跟踪] - Supply side: Companies such as Shandong Xinfeng, Lutai Chemical, and Inner Mongolia Junzheng have entered equipment maintenance. The PVC operating rate decreased by 5.94 percentage points to 76.69%, but it remains at a relatively high level in recent years. New production capacities have been put into operation as mentioned above [5]. - Demand side: The real estate market is still in the adjustment phase. From January to August 2025, national real estate development investment was 603.09 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9%. The sales area of commercial housing was 573.04 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%; the sales volume was 550.15 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.3%. New construction area decreased by 19.5% year - on - year, and completion area decreased by 17.0% year - on - year. As of the week of October 12, the trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 2.44% week - on - week and is near the lowest level in recent years [6]. - Inventory: As of the week of October 16, PVC social inventory decreased by 0.24% to 1.0338 million tons, 33.52% higher than the same period last year. Although inventory has slightly decreased, it remains high [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The high price of copper suppresses demand, but the market is supported by macro - hedging sentiment, the expected interest - rate cut cycle, and the peak season of "Golden September and Silver October". The supply is expected to be tight, but the high price leads to poor inventory depletion [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - Today, Shanghai copper opened low, rose, reached a high, and then fell. Codelco plans to sell copper to European customers at a record - high premium of $345 per ton next year, a 39% increase from this year. Aurubis will also charge a record - high premium of $315 per ton for refined copper to European customers. International copper mines are frequently disrupted, and smelters have multiple overhauls, increasing the expectation of tight supply. In September 2025, China imported 25.87 million tons of copper concentrates and ores, a 6.2% year - on - year increase and a 6.23% month - on - month decrease. In October, 6 smelters had overhauls, involving a rough smelting capacity of 1.4 million tons, and the impact of overhauls increased by 47,300 tons compared to September. Although it is the peak season, the high copper price after the holiday has weakened the downstream's willingness to purchase. The policy of trading in old cars for new ones is expected to drive the sales of over 12 million new cars and nearly 1.7 trillion yuan in new - car sales by the end of this year [1] 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Shanghai copper opened low, rose, reached a high, and then fell. Spot: The spot premium in East China was 55 yuan/ton, and in South China was 130 yuan/ton. On October 15, 2025, the LME official price was $10,528 per ton, and the spot premium was - $33 per ton [4] 3. Supply Side - As of the latest data on October 15, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - $40.8 per dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.08 cents per pound [7] 4. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 42,800 tons, a decrease of 1,557 tons from the previous period. As of October 16, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 100,000 tons, an increase of 1,300 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 137,200 tons, a decrease of 900 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 344,700 short tons, an increase of 1,417 short tons from the previous period [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt futures price is expected to show a weak and volatile trend due to high supply, limited demand, and falling crude oil prices [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - This week, the asphalt production rate increased by 1.3 percentage points to 35.8% week-on-week, 8.0 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a neutral to low level in recent years. In October, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.682 million tons, a decrease of 0.4 million tons month-on-month, a decrease of 0.1%, and an increase of 0.35 million tons year-on-year, an increase of 15.0% [1] - This week, the operating rates of most downstream industries of asphalt were stable. The road asphalt operation rate remained flat at 29.0% week-on-week, still at the lowest level in recent years, restricted by funds and rainfall in some areas [1] - After the National Day holiday this week, the national asphalt shipment volume increased by 14.48% week-on-week to 253,300 tons, at a neutral to low level. The inventory-to-sales ratio of asphalt refineries continued to rise week-on-week but remained at the lowest level in recent years [1] - Some refineries such as Wudi Xinyue have maintenance plans, and asphalt production will decrease but still remain at a high level. Projects in many northern regions are rushing to work, but there is obvious cooling in some areas, increased rainfall in the south, and funding constraints, making the market cautious and affecting asphalt demand [1] - Recently, the supply and demand pressure of crude oil remains high, the Sino-US trade friction has escalated, the geopolitical situation has eased, and crude oil prices have continued to fall [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Today, the asphalt futures 2601 contract fell 0.82% to 3,135 yuan/ton, below the 5-day moving average, with a minimum price of 3,109 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 3,168 yuan/ton, and an open interest increase of 16,499 to 153,523 lots [2] - The mainstream market price in Shandong region dropped to 3,400 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 11 contract rose to 265 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, individual major refineries in Shandong and East China produced intermittently, and the asphalt production rate increased by 1.3 percentage points to 35.8% week-on-week, 8.0 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a neutral to low level in recent years [4] - From January to August, the national highway construction investment decreased by 7.1% year-on-year. The cumulative year-on-year growth rate slightly rebounded compared to January - July 2025 but remained negative. From January to August 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of the actual completed fixed asset investment in the road transportation industry was -3.3%, continuing to decline from -2.0% in January - July 2025, still in a cumulative year-on-year negative growth situation. From January to August 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of the completed fixed asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 2.0%, continuing to decline from 3.2% in January - July 2025 [4] - As of the week of October 17, the operating rates of most downstream industries of asphalt were stable. The road asphalt operation rate remained flat at 29.0% week-on-week, still at the lowest level in recent years, restricted by funds and rainfall in some areas [4] - From the perspective of social financing stock, from January to September 2025, the social financing stock increased by 8.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate slowed down by 0.1 percentage point compared to January - August. In September, the new social financing reached 3.53 trillion yuan, but year-on-year it was 233.5 billion yuan less due to the high base. Attention should be paid to the progress of forming physical workload [4] Inventory - As of the week of October 17, the inventory-to-sales ratio of asphalt refineries increased by 0.8 percentage points to 16.6% compared to the week of October 10, still at the lowest level in recent years [5]

【冠通期货研究报告】 塑料日报：震荡运行 发布日期：2025年10月17日 【行情分析】 10月17日，裕龙石化全密度等检修装置重启开车，塑料开工率上涨至88%左右，目前开工率处于 中性水平。PE下游开工率环比上升0.56个百分点至44.92%，农膜进入旺季，国庆节后，农膜订单和农 膜原料库存再次增加，只是相较往年仍偏低，包装膜订单小幅减少，整体PE下游开工率仍处于近年 同期偏低位水平。今年国庆石化累库幅度与往年类似，目前石化库存处于近年同期中性水平。成本 端，以色列和哈马斯签署停火协议，OPEC+计划11月继续增产，中美贸易摩擦升级，供需压力较大， 原油价格下跌。供应上，新增产能50万吨/年的埃克森美孚（惠州）LDPE计划10月初开车，塑料开工 率小幅上涨。农膜进入旺季，各地区农膜价格稳定，后续需求将进一步提升，农膜企业持续备货， 订单逐步积累，开工情况略有改善，或将带来一定提振，只是目前旺季成色不及预期，国庆节后备 货需求阶段性减弱。中美双方相互对对方船舶收取船舶特别港务费，对于经济增长的担忧加剧。塑 料产业还未有反内卷实际政策落地，当然反内卷与老旧装置淘汰，解决石化产能过剩问题仍是宏观 政策，将影响后续 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 PP日报：震荡运行 发布日期：2025年10月17日 【行情分析】 PP下游开工率环比回升0.09个百分点至51.85%，处于历年同期偏低水平。其中塑编开工率环比持 平于44.26%，塑编订单环比继续略有减少，略低于去年同期。10月17日，新增天津渤化单线等检修装 置，PP企业开工率下跌至82%左右，处于中性偏低水平，标品拉丝生产比例上涨至27%左右。今年国 庆石化累库幅度与往年类似，目前石化库存处于近年同期中性水平。成本端，以色列和哈马斯签署 停火协议，OPEC+计划11月继续增产，中美贸易摩擦升级，供需压力较大，原油价格下跌。供应上， 新增产能45万吨/年中海油宁波大榭PP二期二线8月底已经投产，另一条产线45万吨/年中海油宁波大 榭PP二期一线9月初投产，40万吨/年的中石油广西石化9月下旬试车成功，近期检修装置有所增加。 天气有所好转，下游逐步进入金九银十旺季，塑编开工继续提升，PP下游多数行业有继续走高预期， 下游持续备货或能带来一定的提振，只是目前旺季需求不及预期，市场缺乏大规模集中采购，国庆 节后备货需求阶段性减弱，贸易商普遍让利以刺激成交。中美双方相互对对方船舶收取船舶特 ...