Report Summary of Iron Ore Daily by Guantong Futures 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The iron ore fundamentals show a decrease in arrivals, alleviating supply pressure. The demand side has stable rigid demand, and although ports are still accumulating inventory, it is gradually shifting to downstream steel mills. The fundamental contradictions are not prominent, but the futures contracts present a back structure and a futures discount under a positive basis. After a short - term breakdown, it shows a certain weakness [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情态势回顾 - **Futures Prices**: The main contract of iron ore futures maintained a weak downward trend, closing at 760.5 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton or 1.04% from the previous day's closing price. The trading volume was 216,000 lots, the open interest was 515,000 lots, and the settled funds were 8.612 billion yuan. After the breakdown, it remained weak, with attention on further tests around 750 [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The mainstream spot varieties at Qingdao Port, PB powder, dropped 2 to 770 yuan/ton, and Super Special powder dropped 2 to 665 yuan/ton. The main swap was at 99.3 (-1.3) US dollars/ton. Spot and swap prices declined slightly [1]. - **Basis and Spread**: The price of Qingdao Port PB powder converted to the futures price was 807.2 yuan/ton, with a basis of 46.7 yuan/ton, showing little change. The iron ore 5 - 9 spread was 18 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 10 yuan. Iron ore was slightly weak in the short - term [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, mainly due to the obvious recovery in Brazilian shipments. The arrivals continued to decline, as the previous drop in shipments was reflected in arrivals. There were expectations of supply disruptions due to weather. On the demand side, the molten iron output decreased slightly month - on - month, the steel mill profitability weakened, and the rigid demand was stable. As the Spring Festival approached, steel mills accelerated restocking, and as restocking progressed, the support for prices might gradually weaken. In terms of inventory, ports continued to accumulate inventory, the inventory at berth decreased, and steel mill inventories increased significantly. The total inventory pressure was still building up. Market sentiment weakened, and both futures and spot prices were under pressure [2]. Macro - level Analysis - **Domestic**: The positive policy expectation continues as the macro - mainline, and the expectation of policy intensification in the first quarter to achieve an economic "good start" in the first year of the "15th Five - Year Plan" is strengthening. The overall policy environment is favorable, which is one of the core logics for being bullish on risk assets in the first quarter [3]. - **Overseas**: One of the core variables in overseas macro this week is that Kevin Warsh was nominated as a candidate for the new Federal Reserve Chairman, but the impact on the market is expected to be limited. His monetary policy stance is "supporting interest rate cuts but advocating balance - sheet reduction", so he is considered a hawkish figure. In addition to monetary policy, investors are also advised to pay attention to the two high - uncertainty risk events of the US - Iran situation and the US government shutdown [3].

【冠通期货研究报告】 【期现行情】 期货方面： PVC2605合约减仓震荡下行，最低价4941元/吨，最高价5038元/吨，最终收盘于4981元/吨， 在20日均线上方，跌幅2.18%，持仓量减少28528手至1096311手。 基差方面： 2月6日，华东地区电石法PVC主流价下跌至4770元/吨，V2605合约期货收盘价在4981元/吨， 目前基差在-211元/吨，走弱19元/吨，基差处于偏低水平。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 PVC日报：震荡下行 发布日期：2026年2月6日 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格稳定。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比增加0.33个百分点至79.26%，PVC开工 率继续小幅增加，处于近年同期中性水平。临近春节，PVC下游开工率环比下降3.33个百分点，下游 主动备货意愿偏低。出口方面，受取消出口退税影响，市场出现抢出口现象，加之美国面临寒潮冲 击，PVC企业赶在春节假期前提前预售，国内出口签单继续环比走高，中国台湾台塑PVC 2月份出口船 货报价上涨40美元/吨。上周社会库存继续增加，目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 螺纹日报：增仓下跌 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 6 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货价格：螺纹钢主力合约周五持仓量增仓 67582 手，成交量相比上 一交易日放量，成交量 723307 手。日均线来看跌破短期 5 日均线，中期 30 日均 线，60 日均线，最低 3074，最高 3111，收于 3077 元/吨，下跌 20 元/吨，跌幅 0.65%。 2，现货价格：主流地区上螺纹钢现货 HRB400E 20mm 报价 3220 元/吨，相 比上一交易日下跌 10 元。 供应端：截至 2 月 5 日当周，螺纹钢产量环比下降 8.15 万吨至 191.68 万吨，公历同比下降 1.61 万吨，产量本周下降较多，且处于近几年相对低 位。临近春节，需求转弱，钢厂季节性减产。后续关注春节后产量复苏情况。 需求端：表需大幅下降（符合春节前工地停工的季节性规律），截 至 2 月 5 日当周，表需数据 147.64 万吨，周环比减少 28.76 万吨，年同比 减少 37.51 万吨，需求大幅走弱，临近春节假期，冬储基本结束。后续需要 关注春节后需求复苏情况。 库存端：总库存环比上升，同比大增，整体库存 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 纯碱日报：短期震荡 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 6 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货市场：纯碱主力低开低走，日内震荡偏弱。120 分钟布林带走紧口 喇叭，短线震荡信号，盘中短线压力关注布林带中轨附近，支撑关注布林带下轨 附近。成交量较昨日减 47834 手，持仓量较昨日增 7849 手；日内最高 1205，最 低 1184，收盘 1190，（较昨结算价）跌 22 元/吨，跌幅 1.82%。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 需求方面，纯碱企业出货量 73.74 万吨，环比下降 2.98%；纯碱整体出货率 为 95.23%，环比-1.82%。下游以低价刚需补库为主，采购积极性不佳。 利润方面，据隆众资讯统计，联碱法理论利润（双吨）为-29 元/吨，环比 下降 2.5 元/吨。氨碱法理论利润-88.8 元/吨，环比下降 0.45 元/吨。周内原料 端矿盐价格稳定，动力煤价格震荡上移，成本略有增加。 三、主要逻辑总结 纯碱的核心矛盾仍是供强需弱导致的库存持续累积，行业供需错配格局未改 善。持续增加的库存施压盘面，虽短期受反内卷情绪以及 ...

下游盈利 港口总库存 日均疏港量 钢厂进口矿库存 钢厂进口矿日耗 到港量 内矿铁精粉产量 日均铁水产量 钢厂开工率 产能利用率 钢厂盈利率 本期 17140.71 341.08 10316.64 282.24 2484.7 38.81 228.58 79.53 85.69 39.39 3.50 上期 17022.26 332.31 9968.59 280.96 2530 39.87 227.98 79 85.47 39.39 1.50 周变动 118.45 8.77 348.05 1.28 -45.30 -1.06 0.60 0.53 0.22 0 2.00 粗粉 块矿 球团 精粉 贸易矿 巴西矿 澳大利亚矿 本期 13023.75 2100.22 398.21 1618.53 本期 11316.72 5536.43 7903.27 上期 12891.68 2162.11 409.31 1559.16 上期 11245.25 5583.97 7799.19 周变动 132.07 -61.89 -11.1 59.37 周变动 71.47 -47.54 104.08 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料 我公司对这些信 ...

本期 前值 周变动 本期 前值 周变动 开工率 83.25 84.19 -0.94 开工率 71.863 71.863 0.000 产量 77.43 78.31 -0.88 产线条数 211 213 -2 重质产量 41.4 42.11 -0.71 产量 105.5765 105.6965 -0.12 轻质产量 36.03 36.2 -0.17 厂内库存 158.11 154.42 3.69 库存 5306.4 5256.4 50 重质库存 74.61 71.61 3 库存可用天数 23.1 22.8 0.3 轻质库存 83.5 82.81 0.69 库存可用天数 13.11 12.8 0.31 产销率 95.23 97.06 -1.83 天然气利润 -167.97 -155.12 -12.85 氨碱法毛利 -88.8 -88.35 -0.45 石油焦利润 43.93 1.07 42.86 联产法毛利 -29 -26.5 -2.5 煤制气利润 -67.92 -68.5 0.58 基差 -60 -40 -20 基差 -78 -81 3 1-5价差 -100 -84 -16 1-5价差 -158 -148 -10 ...

1.中国光伏行业协会预计，2026年中国光伏新增装机规模将回落至180GW至240GW，"十五五"期间年均光伏新增装机量为 238GW至287GW。工信部电子信息司副司长王世江指出，治理光伏行业内卷将是今年工作的重中之重。 2.欧洲央行维持基准利率不变，为去年6月以来连续第五次暂停降息。不过，欧洲央行并未释放下一步政策走向的明确信号， 强化了市场对货币政策在一段时间内保持稳定的预期。官员们正密切关注欧元升值对出口竞争力和通胀前景的影响。 3.上期所发布通知，自2月9日收盘结算时起，黄金、白银期货已上市合约涨跌停板幅度分别调整为17%和20%，套保持仓交易保 证金比例调整为18%和21%，一般持仓交易保证金比例调整为19%和22%。 早盘速递 2026/2/6 热点资讯 第 1 页，共 3 页 板块持仓 (1,400,000) (1,200,000) (1,000,000) (800,000) (600,000) (400,000) (200,000) 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 Wind农副产品 Wind谷物 Wind化工 Wind能源 Wind煤焦钢矿 Wind有色 ...

隔夜夜盘市场走势 1.国际贵金属期货普遍收跌，COMEX 黄金期货跌 3.08%报 4798.10 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银期货跌 16.64%报 70.35 美元/盎司。芝商所与上期所上调黄金白银保 证金及涨跌停板限制，抑制市场流动性；同时美联储官员强调维持紧缩政策，削 弱避险需求，共同导致贵金属价格下跌。 2. 美油主力合约收跌 3.1%，报 63.12 美元/桶；布油主力合约跌 2.98%，报 67.39 美元/桶。伊朗确认将与美国谈判，缓解了市场对军事冲突导致供应受阻的担忧， 同时美国私营部门就业数据引发对经济放缓及石油需求减弱的担忧，叠加原油供 应过剩预期，共同导致油价下跌。 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告资讯信息来源于万得资讯和金十数据，冠通研究整理编辑 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不 ...

二、基本面数据 【冠通期货研究报告】 螺纹日报：震荡偏弱 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 5 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货价格：螺纹钢主力合约周四持仓量增仓 49444 手，成交量相比上 一交易日放量，成交量 681405 手。日均线来看跌破短期 5 日均线，中期 30 日 均线，最低 3086，最高 3113，收于 3101 元/吨，下跌 9 元/吨，跌幅 0.29%。 2，现货价格：主流地区上螺纹钢现货 HRB400E 20mm 报价 3230 元/吨， 相比上一交易日维稳。 3，基差：期货贴水现货 129 元/吨。基差仍然较大，有一定支撑。盘面 冬储有一定性价比。 1，供需情况： 供应端：截至 2 月 5 日当周，螺纹钢产量环比下降 8.15 万吨至 191.68 万吨，公历同比下降 1.61 万吨，产量本周下降较多，且处于近几年 相对低位。临近春节，需求转弱，钢厂季节性减产。后续关注春节后产量 复苏情况。 需求端：表需大幅下降（符合春节前工地停工的季节性规律），截 至 2 月 5 日当周，表需数据 147.64 万吨，周环比减少 28.76 万吨，年同比 减少 37.51 万吨，需求大幅走弱，临近春 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The asphalt market is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short - term, and it is recommended to use reverse arbitrage as the main strategy. The supply is at a low level in the same period in recent years, the demand is limited in the short - term, the raw material situation is uncertain, and the base - spread is at a moderately low level [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1.行情分析 - Supply side: Last week, the asphalt operating rate dropped 1.3 percentage points to 25.5%, 2.6 percentage points lower than the same period last year. In February 2026, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 1.936 million tons, a decrease of 64,000 tons (3.2%) month - on - month and 135,000 tons (6.5%) year - on - year. The national asphalt shipment decreased 5.80% to 214,500 tons. Shandong Shengxing Petrochemical plans to switch to producing residual oil this week, and the asphalt operating rate will remain low [1] - Demand side: The rigid demand in the north is basically stagnant but there is inventory - arbitrage demand, and southern projects are gradually coming to an end. The downstream operating rates of asphalt industries mostly declined last week, and road asphalt operating rate remained flat at 14% due to capital and weather constraints [1] - Raw materials: The flow of Venezuelan heavy crude oil to domestic refineries is severely restricted. Although the possibility of domestic refineries obtaining Venezuelan crude oil has increased, it is still expected to be significantly lower than before the US intervention. It is expected that domestic refineries will still have raw material inventory available before March [1] - Price and base - spread: The asphalt price in Shandong is stable, and the base - spread has been repaired but is at a moderately low level. Crude oil prices have rebounded, and the short - term asphalt is expected to fluctuate within a range [1] 2. 期现行情 - Futures: The asphalt futures contract 2603 fell 0.36% to 3,339 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,336 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,382 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 13,038 to 85,907 lots [2] - Base - spread: The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 3,250 yuan/ton, and the base - spread of the asphalt 03 contract rose to - 89 yuan/ton, at a moderately low level [3] 3. 基本面跟踪 - Supply: The asphalt operating rate dropped 1.3 percentage points to 25.5%, 2.6 percentage points lower than the same period last year. From January to November, the national highway construction investment decreased by 5.9% year - on - year. In 2025, the fixed - asset investment in road transportation and infrastructure construction (ex - electricity) both showed negative year - on - year growth [4] - Inventory: As of the week of January 30, the asphalt refinery inventory rate remained flat at 13.6% compared with the week of January 23, near the lowest level in the same period in recent years [4]