Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Not provided Summary by Relevant Catalog Inventory and Supply - Demand Data - **Overall Inventory**: The total port inventory was 14,278.27 this week, an increase of 253.77 from last week. The 247 - steel mill import ore inventory was 8,982.73, a decrease of 63.46 from last week. The 45 - port to - arrival volume was 3,045.8, an increase of 437.1 from last week [1]. - **Inventory by Type**: The port's coarse powder inventory was 11,229.2 this week, an increase of 243.8 from last week. The block ore inventory was 1,784.05, an increase of 53.75 from last week. The pellet inventory was 261.79, an increase of 2.7 from last week. The iron concentrate powder inventory was 1,003.23, a decrease of 46.48 from last week [1]. - **Trade and Origin - based Inventory**: The trade ore inventory at ports was 9,208.11 this week, an increase of 63.19 from last week. The Brazilian ore inventory was 5,684, an increase of 147.47 from last week. The Australian ore inventory was 5,869.73, an increase of 89.3 from last week [1]. - **Supply - Demand Indicators**: The 45 - port daily average ore - dispatching volume was 315.72, a decrease of 11.28 from last week. The 247 - steel mill import ore daily consumption was 297.35, a decrease of 1.79 from last week. The 247 - steel mill daily average hot - metal output was 240.95, a decrease of 0.59 from last week. The 247 - steel mill blast - furnace operating rate remained unchanged at 84.27. The 247 - steel mill capacity utilization rate was 90.33, a decrease of 0.22 from last week. The 247 - steel mill profitability rate was 55.41, a decrease of 0.87 from last week. The 126 - mine iron concentrate powder output was 39.97, an increase of 0.45 from last week [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively presents the overnight performance of the global financial market, including the trends of various futures, stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange. It also covers important macro - economic news, policy announcements, and corporate earnings reports, reflecting the complex and dynamic nature of the current financial and economic situation. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Trends - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 3.40% at $4344.3 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 3.99% at $53.43 per ounce [3] - WTI crude oil's main contract was at $56.95 per barrel, and Brent crude oil's main contract fell 1.37% to $61.06 per barrel [4] - Most London base metals rose, with LME aluminum up 1.82% at $2796.00 per ton, LME tin up 0.94% at $35725.00 per ton, etc. [4] Important Information Macroeconomic News - The 2025 central safety production assessment and inspection will be carried out, the first time in the name of the central government [6] - The Ministry of Commerce will strengthen policy reserves and introduce new policies to stabilize foreign trade [7] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will adjust the trading and exercise fees of natural rubber, rebar, and lead options from November 10 [7] - Fed Governor Waller supports a further rate cut this month, but the policy path remains uncertain [8] - The market is betting on three Fed rate cuts this year, with a 96.3% probability of a 25 - basis - point cut in October [8] - Two US banks suffered fraud in lending to funds investing in bad commercial mortgages, dragging down bank stocks [8] - Trump said he would meet Putin in Budapest to discuss ending the Russia - Ukraine conflict [9] Energy and Chemical Futures - As of October 16, domestic soda ash manufacturers' total inventory was 170.05 million tons, up 0.94% from Monday, and production decreased by 3.93% week - on - week [11] - India said it would prioritize the interests of its consumers in the energy sector after Trump's statement [11] - Shahe City requires glass enterprises to complete the "coal - to - gas" transformation by the end of this month, involving a production capacity of about 8100 tons per day [11] - As of October 16, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 64.276 million heavy boxes, up 2.31% month - on - month and 11.14% year - on - year [12] - As of October 16, the float glass industry's operating rate was 76.35%, up 0.34 percentage points from the 9th [12] - As of October 16, China's liquefied gas port sample inventory decreased by 2.74% week - on - week [13] - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange will adjust the position threshold of the underlying futures contract for crude oil options from November 10 [15] - As of October 16, the methanol inventory at East China ports decreased by 5.11 million tons compared to October 9 [16] - As of October 10, US natural gas inventory increased by 0.7% year - on - year [16] - India has cut its oil imports from Russia by 50% [17] Metal Futures - The Shanghai Futures Exchange and the Shanghai Gold Exchange reminded investors to guard against risks in the precious metal market [19] - Peru's copper production in August decreased by 1.6% year - on - year, but increased by 2.6% in the first eight months of 2025 [19] - The rumor of a polysilicon storage platform was false [21] - Japan, Spain, and South Korea expressed concerns about the decline in copper processing and refining fees [21] - A medium - sized recycled lead smelter in central China has gradually resumed production, with a daily output of 300 tons [22] - Guinea's bauxite exports in Q3 increased by 23% year - on - year, mostly to China [22] Black - Series Futures - As of October 16, rebar production decreased by 1.1% week - on - week, and factory and social inventories decreased [24] - Hebei Iron and Steel's 75B ferrosilicon tender price in October was 5660 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton from the previous round [25] - The China Iron and Steel Association said that domestic steel demand will decline during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period [25] - As of October 16, the total inventory of imported sintered powder of 114 steel mills decreased by 87.31 million tons [27] - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide was - 13 yuan/ton [27] Agricultural Product Futures - From October 1 - 15, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 6.86% month - on - month [29] - As of October 16, the physical inventory of 36 jujube sample points decreased by 1.72% week - on - week [29] - Brazil exported 1538934 tons of soybeans, 266768 tons of soybean meal, and 902772 tons of corn last week [29] - Brazil's sugar production in the second half of September increased by 10.76% year - on - year [29] Financial Market Finance - On Thursday, A - shares fluctuated with low volume, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.1% at 3916.23 points [32] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.09% to 25888.51 points, and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 1.18% [32] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange will support green financing and strengthen ESG disclosure supervision [32] - First Capital Securities submitted a prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to start the A + H dual - listing process [32] - TSMC's Q3 net profit reached a record high, up 39.1% year - on - year, and it expects Q4 revenue of $322 - 334 billion [33] Industry - The government may introduce new photovoltaic capacity control policies, and the rumor of a polysilicon storage platform is false [35] - Chinese scientists have solved the key problem of solid - state battery charging, potentially doubling the battery's range [36] - The 2025 World Intelligent Connected Vehicle Conference announced the construction of a national AI automotive application pilot base [36] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology launched the "Millisecond Computing in Urban Areas" special action [36] - The National Healthcare Security Administration requires all regions to carry out immediate settlement of medical insurance funds by the end of 2025 [36] - The market regulator is soliciting opinions on new regulations for online food delivery services [36] - The "Linglong One" completed its cold - state performance test [37] - China's ice and snow industry scale will exceed 1 trillion yuan in 2025 [39] Overseas - Trump said he would meet Putin to discuss ending the Russia - Ukraine conflict [40] - India said it would prioritize its consumers' interests in energy after Trump's statement [40] - The US fiscal deficit in 2025 decreased by 2% compared to 2024 [40] - Fed officials have different views on the rate - cut rhythm [40] - The Bank of Japan may tighten monetary policy if the economic outlook improves [41] - The German economy is likely to stagnate in Q3 [43] International Stock Markets - US stocks fell, with the Dow down 0.65%, the S&P 500 down 0.63%, and the Nasdaq down 0.47% [44] - European stocks rose, with the German DAX up 0.38%, the French CAC40 up 1.38%, and the UK FTSE 100 up 0.12% [44] - German Chancellor Merz called for the establishment of a pan - European stock exchange [44] - Asian - Pacific stocks rose, with the South Korean Composite Index up 2.49% and the Nikkei 225 up 1.27% [44] Commodities - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the fees of natural rubber, rebar, and lead options from November 10 [45] - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange adjusted the position threshold of crude oil options from November 10 [47] - International precious metal futures rose, and crude oil futures fell [47] - Russia's oil production is expected to be 510 million tons in 2025, a 1% decrease from last year [48] - Saudi Aramco's CEO warned of a future oil supply shortage [48] Bonds - The domestic bond market was strong, with most spot bond yields falling [49] - Uncertainty in the French bond market is increasing due to upcoming credit reviews [50] - US bond yields fell across the board [50] Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar fell 11 points at 16:30 on Thursday [51] - The US Treasury Secretary said the yen would stabilize if the Bank of Japan implemented the right policy [51] - The US dollar index fell 0.31% at the New York close [51]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The urea market is currently characterized by low downstream demand despite some improvement in purchasing due to better weather. The market is expected to remain in a short - term low - level oscillation, with attention on winter storage. Although the upstream factories are holding up prices, the demand is insufficient, leading to inventory accumulation and weak market performance [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Urea futures opened low and ended up closing slightly higher. Upstream factories are trying to maintain prices, but downstream demand is low and trading is inactive. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1500 - 1550 yuan/ton [1][3]. - India's RCF urea import tender on October 15 received 25 offers, with a total bid volume of about 3.7019 million tons, including 1.9532 million tons for the west coast and 1.7487 million tons for the east coast [1]. - The daily urea production is around 190,000 - 200,000 tons. Next week, more enterprises are expected to be under maintenance than resuming production, so production may slightly decrease. Demand is weak, with agricultural dealers being cautious in stockpiling, compound fertilizer factories reducing their operating rates, and other industrial demands affected by rainfall [1]. - Domestic demand is sluggish, and urea inventories in factories are accumulating at an increasing rate. Although the purchasing situation has improved with better weather, the market is still weak and is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term [1]. Futures Market - The main urea 2601 contract opened at 1599 yuan/ton, went down during the session, and closed at 1604 yuan/ton with a 0.00% change. The trading volume was 315,491 lots, a decrease of 7,195 lots [2]. - On October 16, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 6,438, a decrease of 55 from the previous trading day. Among them, Heilongjiang Longxin decreased by 15 and Liaoning Fertilizer decreased by 40 [2]. - Among the top 20 long and short positions of the main contract, the long positions decreased by 2,762 lots and the short positions decreased by 4,873 lots. For example, Zhongtai Futures' net long positions decreased by 2,552 lots, and CITIC Futures' net short positions decreased by 5,911 lots [2]. Spot Market - Upstream factories are holding up prices, but downstream demand is low, and trading is inactive. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1500 - 1550 yuan/ton [1][3]. Fundamental Tracking - The basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day. The basis of the January contract was - 54 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan/ton [6]. - On October 16, 2025, the national daily urea production was 194,400 tons, unchanged from the previous day, with an operating rate of 82.14% [7]. - From October 10 to October 16, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 24.18%, a decrease of 1.32 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 55.18%, an increase of 3.03 percentage points from the previous week [9].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper (沪铜)**: The copper market is supported by macro hedging sentiment and the expected interest - rate cut cycle. With supply tightening due to frequent disturbances at international copper mines and smelter overhauls, and demand boosted by the "Golden September and Silver October" season, the copper price is in an upward range and is expected to oscillate at a high level [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate (碳酸锂)**: The supply of lithium carbonate is steadily increasing, and the demand is in the peak season. With both supply and demand booming, the market is expected to be relatively strong during the "Golden September and Silver October" [11]. - **Crude Oil**: The crude oil market has weak supply - demand fundamentals due to the end of the consumption peak season, weak US non - farm payroll data, intensified Sino - US trade frictions, OPEC+ production increase, and the resumption of oil exports from the Iraqi Kurdish region. It is recommended to view it as a weak oscillation and pay attention to the development of the Sino - US trade war [12][14]. - **Asphalt**: The supply of asphalt is at a relatively high level, while the demand is restricted by factors such as funds and rainfall. With high pressure on crude oil supply and demand, falling crude oil prices, the asphalt futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [15]. - **PP**: The downstream demand for PP is in the "Golden September and Silver October" season but falls short of expectations. With new production capacity coming on stream, increased supply, and high - pressure on the cost side due to falling crude oil prices, the PP market is expected to oscillate weakly [16][17]. - **Plastic**: The plastic market has a neutral - level supply and low - level demand. With new production capacity and falling crude oil prices, and the demand during the peak season being less than expected, the plastic market is expected to oscillate weakly in the near term [18]. - **PVC**: The PVC market has high supply and low demand. With increased social inventory, weak cost, and no actual anti - involution policy implemented, the PVC market is expected to oscillate weakly in the near term [19][20]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal market has increased supply from resumed production. Although the demand from coke enterprises is weak, the high - level demand from steel mills provides support. The market is expected to be relatively stable during the "Golden September and Silver October" [21]. - **Urea**: The urea market has high supply and low demand. With poor domestic demand and continued inventory accumulation, it is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term, and attention should be paid to the winter storage situation [23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market Overview - As of the close on October 16, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed trends. Polysilicon, coking coal, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and butadiene rubber rose by more than 3%, while Shanghai silver, lithium carbonate, coke, and red dates rose by more than 2%. The container shipping index (European line) and live pigs fell by more than 3%, and apples fell by nearly 2% [6]. - In terms of stock index futures, the main contract of the CSI 300 stock index futures (IF) rose 0.38%, the main contract of the SSE 50 stock index futures (IH) rose 0.80%, the main contract of the CSI 500 stock index futures (IC) fell 1.01%, and the main contract of the CSI 1000 stock index futures (IM) fell 0.95% [6]. - In terms of treasury bond futures, the main contract of the 2 - year treasury bond futures (TS) fell 0.01%, the main contract of the 5 - year treasury bond futures (TF) fell 0.01%, the main contract of the 10 - year treasury bond futures (T) rose 0.06%, and the main contract of the 30 - year treasury bond futures (TL) rose 0.42% [7]. - As of 15:23 on October 16, in terms of capital flow, the main contracts of SSE 50 2512, coking coal 2601, and CSI 300 2512 had capital inflows of 1.403 billion, 673 million, and 602 million respectively; the main contracts of CSI 1000 2512, CSI 500 2512, and Shanghai copper 2511 had capital outflows of 2.862 billion, 1.7 billion, and 1.3 billion respectively [7]. 3.2. Individual Futures Analysis - **Copper**: China's September CPI and PPI year - on - year decline narrowed, and the core CPI returned to 1% for the first time in 19 months. In September 2025, China imported 25.87 million tons of copper concentrates and their ores, a year - on - year increase of 6.2% and a month - on - month decrease of 6.23%. In October, 6 smelters had overhauls, affecting an additional 47,300 tons of production compared to September. Although the high copper price restrains downstream consumption, the overall market is still in an upward trend [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The average price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged. The supply is expected to increase in October, with new production lines put into operation. In September 2025, Chile exported 11,100 tons of lithium carbonate to China, a month - on - month decrease of 1,881 tons (- 14%). The domestic production schedule in October is 84,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.7%. The demand in the downstream is in the peak season [11]. - **Crude Oil**: On October 5, OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November. The EIA data shows that the US crude oil inventory has increased more than expected, but the refined oil inventory has decreased more than expected. Russia's crude oil exports are still at a high level. The market is worried about the demand due to various factors, and the supply - demand situation is weak [12][14]. - **Asphalt**: After the National Day, the asphalt production rate decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 37%, and the expected production in October is 2.682 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,000 tons (- 0.1%) and a year - on - year increase of 350,000 tons (15.0%). The downstream demand is restricted by funds and rainfall [15]. - **PP**: The downstream PP production rate increased by 0.05 percentage points to 51.76%. On October 16, some overhauled devices restarted. New production capacity has been put into operation. The demand during the peak season is less than expected [16][17]. - **Plastic**: The plastic production rate remained at about 87.5%. The downstream PE production rate increased by 0.23 percentage points to 44.36%. The agricultural film is in the peak season, but the demand during the peak season is less than expected [18]. - **PVC**: The upstream calcium carbide price in the northwest region is stable. The PVC production rate increased by 3.66 percentage points to 82.63%. The downstream demand is low, and the export expectation in the fourth quarter is weak. The social inventory is still high [19][20]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal price showed an intraday increase. The supply has increased with the resumption of production, and the demand from coke enterprises is weak, but the steel mills' demand provides support [21]. - **Urea**: The urea price showed an intraday decrease and then an increase. The upstream factories are holding up the price, but the downstream demand is low. The daily production is about 190,000 - 200,000 tons, and the inventory is increasing [23].

Report Summary Overnight Market Trends - WTI crude oil's main contract was at $58.75 per barrel; Brent crude oil's main contract rose 0.13% to $62.47 per barrel [4]. - International precious metal futures generally closed higher, with COMEX gold futures up 1.48% at $4,224.90 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 3.76% at $52.53 per ounce [4]. - Most London base metals rose, with LME tin up 0.54% at $35,380.00 per ton, LME aluminum up 0.26% at $2,744.50 per ton, etc., while LME copper fell 0.02% and LME zinc fell 0.03% [4]. Macroeconomic News - By the end of September 2025, M2 balance was 335.38 trillion yuan, up 8.4% year - on - year. The balance of local and foreign currency loans was 274.33 trillion yuan, up 6.5% year - on - year [7]. - From January to August, policies supporting the manufacturing industry provided tax cuts, fee reductions, and tax refunds of 1292.5 billion yuan [8]. - In September 2025, China's CPI fell 0.3% year - on - year, and PPI fell 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month [8]. - The NDRC issued an action plan to double the service capacity of electric vehicle charging facilities by 2027, aiming to add 1.6 million DC charging guns [8]. - A Fed governor said that recent trade tensions increased economic uncertainty, making an early interest rate cut more urgent [8]. - The US president said the US would consider land operations against drug - trafficking groups and authorized the CIA to operate in Venezuela [8]. - The Fed's Beige Book indicated that overall economic activity changed little, with some regions reporting growth, no change, or a slight slowdown [10]. Energy and Chemical Futures - As of October 15, 2025, China's methanol port inventory was 1.4914 million tons, down 51,800 tons from the previous period [12]. - As of the week of October 13, the total refined oil inventory at Fujairah Port in the UAE was 178.12 million barrels, up 14.78 million barrels from the previous week [13]. - Russia's deputy prime minister said global energy demand was growing, but Russia had no plan to submit an oil production compensation plan to OPEC [13]. - The US president said India's prime minister promised to stop buying Russian oil [13]. Metal Futures - The number of domestic polysilicon producers increased to 11 this week, and the October output was expected to be around 130,000 tons, with a narrowing month - on - month increase and a slight inventory build - up expected [14]. - Freeport McMoRan planned to exit the benchmark pricing system for copper ore sales [16]. - From October 1 - 12, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China were 367,000, down 1% year - on - year but up 1% from the previous month [17]. - Workers at an aluminum bauxite company in Guinea launched an indefinite strike [17]. - In September 2025, the output of refined tin in 20 domestic smelters was 9,770 tons, down 34.69% month - on - month and 2.3% year - on - year [18]. - In August 2025, the global refined copper market had a surplus of 256,500 tons, the global primary aluminum market had a shortage of 105,400 tons, and the global refined nickel market had a surplus of 49,900 tons [18]. - Indonesia's tin production was expected to return to normal in 2026 after the crackdown on illegal mining [19]. Black - Series Futures - As of the week of October 15, the national building materials output was 4602,000 tons, up 53,400 tons from the previous week; the factory inventory was 5013,800 tons, up 132,200 tons; the social inventory was 5685,800 tons, down 35,400 tons; and the apparent demand was 4505,200 tons, up 760,900 tons [21]. Agricultural Futures - According to AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 15 were 781,006 tons, up 12.3% from the previous month [24]. - According to ITS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 15 were 862,724 tons, up 16.2% from the previous month [25]. - India's vegetable oil imports in September were 1,639,743 tons, slightly down from August. Palm oil imports were 829,017 tons, significantly down from August [25]. - Indonesia planned to raise the CPO export tax from 10% to 15% [26]. - China's Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs deployed work on pig quarantine and slaughter [26]. - Guangdong Province planned to start purchasing frozen pork reserves as the pig - grain ratio entered the first - level warning zone [26]. - US threats of not buying Chinese edible oil may be ineffective [26]. - Brazil's expected soybean planting area in 2025 was 47.7 million hectares, up 0.1% from the previous forecast and 3.6% from last year, and the expected output was 1.65866 billion tons [27]. - In September 2025, US soybean crushing volume was 197.863 million bushels, and the soybean oil inventory was 1.243 billion pounds [28]. Financial Markets Financial - On Wednesday, A - shares rebounded with a shrinking volume. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.22% to 3912.21, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.73%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.36%. The trading volume was 2.09 trillion yuan, down over 500 billion yuan [30]. - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 1.84% to 25,910.6, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 2.57%. Southbound funds sold a net HK$5.443 billion [30]. - By the end of Q3 2025, northbound funds' A - share market value was close to 2.59 trillion yuan, up 12.91% quarter - on - quarter, and they significantly increased holdings in technology sectors [30]. - Ping An Life and China Ping An increased their holdings in Bank of China and Postal Savings Bank of China's H - shares [31][32]. Industry - Six departments issued an action plan to double the service capacity of electric vehicle charging facilities by 2027 [33]. - In September, China's second - hand car market transactions were 1.7944 million, up 5.1% month - on - month and 8.2% year - on - year, with a transaction amount of 110.466 billion yuan [34]. - Chengdu expanded the scope of the "commercial mortgage to provident fund mortgage" policy [34]. Overseas - The IMF warned that global public debt might exceed 100% of GDP by 2029 [35]. - The Fed's Beige Book showed that overall economic activity changed little, with a slight decline in retail spending and stable employment [35]. - The US Senate failed to advance a temporary appropriation bill [37]. - The Trump administration might cut over 10,000 federal government jobs during the shutdown [38]. - The US Treasury Secretary planned to present Fed candidates to Trump after Thanksgiving [38]. - A Fed governor said recent trade tensions increased economic uncertainty, making interest rate cuts more necessary [38]. - The New York Fed's manufacturing index rose sharply in October [39]. - South Korea introduced new housing market policies [39]. - Norway planned to gradually cancel subsidies for electric vehicles [39]. International Stock Markets - US stocks closed mixed, with the Dow down 0.04%, the S&P 500 up 0.4%, and the Nasdaq up 0.66%. US ETFs were attracting funds at a record - breaking speed [40][41]. - European stocks closed mixed, with the German DAX down 0.23%, the French CAC40 up 1.99%, and the UK FTSE 100 down 0.3% [41]. - Most Asia - Pacific stock markets closed higher, with South Korea's KOSPI up 2.68% and Japan's Nikkei 225 up 1.76% [41]. - Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, and ASML reported better - than - expected Q3 results [42]. Commodities - US crude oil and Brent crude oil futures rose slightly, but the market faced supply - surplus pressure [44]. - Precious metal futures rose due to concerns about the US government shutdown and high global public debt [44]. - JPMorgan Chase's CEO said it was reasonable to hold gold and predicted a significant rise in gold prices [45]. - Most London base metals rose, and the market was balancing various factors [45]. Bonds - The stock market's strength suppressed the bond market. China's central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the Ministry of Finance issued RMB 11 billion in bonds in Hong Kong [46]. - US Treasury yields were mixed [48]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose on Wednesday, and the US dollar index fell [49]. Upcoming Economic Data and Events - Key economic data to be released include Japan's core machinery orders, Australia's unemployment rate, and the US's PPI, retail sales, etc. [51]. - Key events include China's central bank's reverse repurchase maturity, speeches by central bank officials, and press conferences [53].

Group 1: Hot News - The National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Administrative Measures for Special Central Budgetary Investments in Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction", supporting energy conservation and carbon reduction transformations in key industries such as electricity, steel, and non - ferrous metals [4] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised the global economic growth forecast for 2025 to 3.2% from 3.0% in July, while keeping the 2026 forecast at 3.1%. Trump's trade war may significantly drag down global output [4] - Premier Li Qiang emphasized the need to implement counter - cyclical adjustments, expand domestic demand, and address disorderly and irrational competition in industries [4] - In September, the trading volume of China's futures market was 770,214,190 lots, a 3.03% year - on - year decrease, and the trading value was 71.495835 trillion yuan, a 33.16% year - on - year increase [4] - Analyst Adam Button speculated that the US September employment report might be poor based on Powell's hints [5] Group 2: Key Focus and Market Performance - Key commodities to focus on include silver, glass, crude oil, Shanghai copper, and Shanghai gold [6] - In the holiday overseas market, the precious metals sector had a capital increase ratio of 31.95%, the non - metallic building materials sector had a 2.81% increase, and other sectors also showed different performance [6] - The table shows the daily, monthly, and annual percentage changes of various major asset classes, including stocks, fixed - income, commodities, and others [8] Group 3: Main Commodity Trends - The report presents the trends of major commodities such as WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, etc., along with related ratios like the gold - oil ratio and copper - gold ratio [9]

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告资讯信息来源于万得资讯和金十数据，冠通研究整理编辑 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/10/15 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际贵金属期货收盘涨跌不一，COMEX 黄金期货涨 0.64%报 4159.60 美元/盎 司，COMEX 白银期货跌 0.17%报 50.35 美元/盎司。 2. 国际能源署发布看空预测，WTI 原油主力合约报 58.59 美元/桶；布伦特原油 主力合约跌 ...

养殖产业链数据报告-豆粕、油脂 联系方式：010-85356618 豆粕:111家样本企业：表观消费量：中国（周） 压榨厂：豆粕:111家样本企业：库存：中国（周） 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 万吨 2022 2023 2024 2025 频度：周 最新值 前值 周环比 棕榈油：库存：中国 （万吨） 54.76 55.22 -0.83% 菜油：库存：中国 （万吨） 56.90 58.67 -3.02% 压榨厂：豆油：库存： 中国（万吨） 126.51 124.87 1.31% 棕榈油：期现价差：中 国（元/吨） -39.00 59.00 -166.10% 菜油：期现价差：中国 （元/吨） 402.00 324.00 24.07% 豆油、棕榈油：期现价 差：中国 （元/吨） -808.00 -895.00 -9.72% 棕榈油现货主力合约基 差(元/吨） 102.00 -44.00 -331.82% 菜油现货主力合约基差 (元/吨） 362.75 172.00 110.90% 豆油现货主力合约基差 (元/吨） 299.05 246.84 21.15% 2025-06-06 油脂 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/10/13 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 伦敦基本金属全线下跌，LME 期锡跌 4.61%报 35350.00 美元/吨，周跌 5.62%； LME期铜跌4.54%报10374.00美元/吨，周跌3.19%；LME期铝跌1.88%报2746.00 美元/吨，周涨 1.35%；LME 期镍跌 1.79%报 15215.00 美元/吨，周跌 1.41%；LME 期锌 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The copper market is in a complex situation. Entering the interest - rate cut cycle provides an upward - driving logic for copper prices. With mining - end disturbances and the expectations of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, although the market is currently in a state of shock, the copper price is expected to mainly fluctuate upwards as it has previously broken through the shock range [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The Shanghai copper futures opened higher and moved up during the day, then declined and closed flat at the end of the session. The US September CPI report is expected to be postponed from the original October 15 release but may still be released before the Fed's FOMC policy meeting on October 28 - 29. Mining - end disturbances in Chile and Indonesia and the hopeless resumption of production in Panama have intensified market concerns about supply. As of September 30, the spot TC was - 40.30 dollars/ton and RC was - 4.03 cents/pound, remaining weakly stable. In September, SMM's Chinese electrolytic copper production decreased by 5.05 tons month - on - month (a 4.31% decline) and increased by 11.62% year - on - year. Future production is expected to continue to decline. The direction of Document No. 770 of 2025 by the National Development and Reform Commission is unclear, which may affect the scrap - copper operating rate. On the demand side, the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, along with new technologies such as new energy vehicles and AI, strengthens downstream expectations. Although the real - estate sector has a negative impact, there is overall rigid support [1]. Periodic and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Shanghai copper opened higher and moved up during the day, then declined and closed flat at the end of the session. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was 5 yuan/ton, and in South China was 30 yuan/ton. On October 9, 2025, the LME official price was 10875 dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 8.5 dollars/ton [3]. Supply Side - As of September 30, the spot TC was - 40.3 dollars/ton, and the spot RC was - 4.03 cents/pound [6]. Inventory - SHFE copper inventory was 30,000 tons, an increase of 261 tons from the previous period. As of October 9, Shanghai bonded - area copper inventory was 88,200 tons, an increase of 7,500 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 139,400 tons, an increase of 275 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 338,200 short tons, an increase of 2,638 short tons from the previous period [9].