【冠通研究】 需求进入疲弱期 今日尿素盘面高开低走，日内偏强整理。市场成交弱稳，价格上涨后下游 接单情绪不积极。基本面来看，供应端日产本周产量有减少，主要系产能临时 性检修，目前日产量低于 20 万吨，压力小幅缓解。需求端，下周农需收尾，拿 货环比上周减少，后续将逐渐减弱对尿素价格支撑，工业需求以复合肥工厂为 主，工厂继续降低开工负荷，并未到秋季肥生产旺季阶段，工厂刚需拿货为 主，整体需求渐进如弱势期。库存去化以出口集港及农业拿货为主。整体来 看，供需均偏弱，行情受出口配额消息及煤炭成本端反弹而走强，整体来看， 除自身供需及出口的摇摆，还有宏观环境的不确定性，短期偏涨，但操作需谨 慎。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2509 合约 1740 元/吨高开低走，日内偏强震荡，最终 收于 1735 元/吨，收成一根阴线，涨跌+0.12%，持仓量 210822 手（-11370 手）。 前二十名主力持仓席位来看，多头+194 手，空头-3259 手。其中，一德期货净多 单增加 2192 手、安粮期货净多单减少 1935 手；长江期货净空单增加 1944 手， 东证期货净空单减少 2954 手。 2025 年 7 ...

Group 1: Hot News - The U.S. House of Representatives passed President Trump's "big and beautiful" tax and spending bill with 218 votes in favor and 214 against. The bill raises the federal government's debt ceiling by $5 trillion and may increase the budget deficit by $3.4 trillion in the next decade [3] - In June, China's warehousing index was 51%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, and has been in the expansion range for eight consecutive months. Major sub - indices have rebounded [3] - U.S. non - farm payrolls increased by 147,000 in June, far exceeding the expected 110,000. The unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%. After the data release, the market abandoned bets on a Fed rate cut in July, and the probability of a rate cut in September dropped to about 80% [3] - OPEC+ has started discussing an 8 - month production increase of 411,000 barrels per day and will further discuss it in an online meeting this weekend [4] - As of the week of July 3, rebar production increased for the third consecutive week, factory inventory decreased, social inventory increased, and apparent demand increased for two consecutive weeks. Rebar production was 2210800 tons, up 1.49%; factory inventory was 1804700 tons, down 2.76%; social inventory was 3647400 tons, up 0.37%; apparent demand was 2248700 tons, up 2.26% [4] Group 2: Key Focus and Market Performance - Key commodities to focus on are urea, lithium carbonate, hot - rolled coil, soybean oil, and PVC [5] - Night - session performance by sectors: Non - metallic building materials 2.75%, precious metals 27.92%, oilseeds 12.06%, non - ferrous metals 21.61%, soft commodities 2.82%, coal, coke, steel and ore 13.52%, energy 3.05%, chemicals 12.35%, grains 1.11%, agricultural and sideline products 2.81% [5] Group 3: Asset Performance - Equity: The Shanghai Composite Index had a daily increase of 0.18%, a monthly increase of 0.49%, and an annual increase of 3.26%. Other indices also had different performance [7] - Fixed - income: 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures had their respective daily, monthly, and annual performance [7] - Commodities: The CRB commodity index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, and Wind commodity index had different performance [7] - Others: The U.S. dollar index and CBOE volatility had their respective performance [7]

【冠通研究】 关注下周美国关税情况 制作日期：2025 年 7 月 4 日 【期现行情】 【策略分析】 今日沪铜低开高走午后下挫。美国 6 月非农新增就业 14.7 万人超预期，4、5 月合 计上修 1.6 万人，失业率意外降至 4.1%。下周 7 月 9 日，关税豁免推迟期限将至。特朗 普表示，他将于周五开始致函贸易伙伴，设定单边关税税率，各国必须从 8 月 1 日开始 支付关税税率。他补充说："关税范围高至 60%或 70%，低至 10%和 20%。"基本面来 看，供给端，截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日，现货粗炼费为-43.56 美元/干吨，现货精炼费为- 4.35 美分/磅。目前铜冶炼端偏紧预期暂时只反映在数据上，铜供应量依然在走强；库 存端全球铜库存去化，其中套利驱使下，伦铜大幅去化，美铜依然在快速累库，国内目 前铜去化幅度较缓，主要系逢低拿货为主。需求端，受铜关税事件影响，铜出口需求增 加，带动表观消费量的提振。全球经济不确定性的影响下，终端市场相对疲软，下游也 多以逢低拿货及刚需补货为主，6 月系消费淡季阶段，终端家电排产减少，高温下房地 产也多拖累，整体需求反馈不佳，只有逢低采购的支撑存在 ...

1. 国际贵金属期货收盘涨跌不一，COMEX 黄金期货跌 0.71%报 3336.00 美元/盎 司，COMEX 白银期货涨 0.85%报 37.04 美元/盎司。 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/07/04 隔夜夜盘市场走势 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 重要资讯 【宏观资讯】 2. 国际油价微跌，美油主力合约收跌 0.40%，报 67.18 美元/桶；布伦特原油主 力合约跌 0.32%，报 68.89 美元/桶。 3. 伦敦基本金属收盘涨跌参半，LME 期镍涨 0.35%报 15355.00 美元/吨，LME 期 锡涨 0.27%报 33805.00 美元/吨，LME 期铝跌 0.55%报 2605.50 美元/吨，LME 期 铜跌 0.61%报 9951.50 美元/吨。 4. 芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）农产品期货主力合约收盘多数上涨 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The overall trend of coking coal is a game between strong expectations and weak reality. Although there are expectations of supply tightening, subsequent production will recover, and demand remains weak. Caution is advised when chasing up [3]. - The price of copper is expected to continue its upward trend, but the impact of the Fed's interest rate cut expectations on the US dollar index will increase price volatility [5]. - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to rise in the September peak - demand season, with short - term upward movement on the disk. Attention should be paid to the support level around 62,000 [10]. - For crude oil, the supply - demand situation has marginally improved, but geopolitical risks and the OPEC+ meeting need to be monitored. It is recommended to lightly buy put options [11][12]. - For asphalt, as it enters the peak season, it is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [13]. - PP and plastic are expected to fluctuate at low levels due to factors such as weak downstream demand and inventory pressure [15][16]. - PVC is expected to fluctuate at low levels in the near term, and it is recommended to short at high prices [18]. - Soybean meal futures are expected to show a volatile adjustment trend, and attention should be paid to the weather in US soybean - producing areas and tax bills [19]. - Soybean oil futures are expected to maintain a volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the US biodiesel policy and weather during the growing season [21]. - The price of rebar is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the upward drive may not be sustainable. It is recommended to follow the long trend and set stop - losses [24]. - Hot - rolled coil is expected to consolidate at a high level in the short term. It is recommended to combine "following the long trend" with "high - selling and low - buying within the range" [25]. - The price increase of urea is blocked, and attention should be paid to the pressure level around 1740 [26]. Summary by Variety Coking Coal - **Price**: Opened high and closed up more than 3% [3]. - **Supply**: There are expectations of production cuts during the safety month, and the Mongolian coal import port is closed for 5 days. Domestic production and imports have decreased, and mine coking coal inventory has decreased significantly [3]. - **Demand**: Relatively weak and stable. Coke enterprises' profit has decreased, and the iron - water production increase is small. Terminal demand is affected by high temperatures and real - estate policies [3]. Copper - **Price**: Opened low and closed down [5]. - **Supply**: The supply of copper smelting is expected to be tight, but the actual supply is increasing. Global copper inventory is decreasing, with different trends in different regions [5]. - **Demand**: Affected by the copper tariff event, export demand has increased, but terminal demand is weak, and it is mainly supported by low - price purchases [5]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: The average price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate has increased [10]. - **Supply**: Although there are expectations of supply tightening due to supply - side reform, current weekly production is increasing [10]. - **Demand**: The market expects September to be the peak - demand season. The prices of downstream materials have increased, but battery factory demand is relatively stable [10]. Crude Oil - **Geopolitical Situation**: Tensions in the Middle East have eased, but geopolitical risks still need to be monitored. Attention should be paid to the OPEC+ meeting on July 6 [11]. - **Supply - Demand**: Entering the seasonal peak - demand season, US crude oil inventory has decreased, and OPEC+ production increase is less than expected [11]. Asphalt - **Supply**: The weekly production is increasing, and the inventory - to - sales ratio of refineries has decreased [13]. - **Demand**: As it gradually enters the peak season, the demand in the north is relatively good [13]. - **Recommendation**: It is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread at low prices [13]. PP - **Supply**: New production capacity has been put into operation, and the restart of some maintenance devices has increased production. The downstream start - up rate has decreased [14][15]. - **Demand**: Affected by tariffs and raw material imports, downstream demand is weak, and it is mainly for rigid demand [15]. - **Recommendation**: Expected to fluctuate at a low level [15]. Plastic - **Supply**: New production capacity has been put into operation, and the start - up rate has decreased. The downstream start - up rate is at a low level [16]. - **Demand**: Affected by tariffs and raw material imports, downstream demand is weak, and it is mainly for rigid demand [16]. - **Recommendation**: Expected to fluctuate at a low level in the near term [16]. PVC - **Supply**: The start - up rate has decreased, and social inventory is high [17][18]. - **Demand**: Downstream demand is weak, and exports are affected by policies [17][18]. - **Recommendation**: Expected to fluctuate at a low level, and it is recommended to short at high prices [18]. Soybean Meal - **Supply**: Domestic oil - mill start - up rate is high, and inventory is increasing [19]. - **Demand**: Terminal demand is stable, and oil mills have little motivation to support prices [19]. - **Recommendation**: Expected to show a volatile adjustment trend [19]. Soybean Oil - **Supply**: Domestic soybean arrivals are large, and the oil - mill start - up rate is high, resulting in inventory accumulation [21]. - **Demand**: Market reaction to USDA reports is flat, and the peak - production expectation is strong, but weather changes need to be watched out for [21]. - **Recommendation**: Expected to maintain a volatile trend [21]. Rebar - **Supply**: Production is increasing, and supply pressure is rising [22]. - **Demand**: Demand is weak, showing seasonal characteristics [22]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory has decreased, and social inventory has increased [22]. - **Cost**: The cost center has moved up, providing support [22]. - **Recommendation**: Expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the upward drive may not be sustainable. It is recommended to follow the long trend and set stop - losses [24]. Hot - rolled Coil - **Supply**: Production is expected to increase as maintenance impacts decrease [25]. - **Demand**: Terminal demand has seasonal decline, but is relatively resilient [25]. - **Cost**: Furnace material support is strong [25]. - **Recommendation**: Expected to consolidate at a high level in the short term. It is recommended to combine "following the long trend" with "high - selling and low - buying within the range" [25]. Urea - **Supply**: Production is affected by maintenance, and there are concerns about supply - side reform, but the impact is relatively small [26]. - **Demand**: Overall demand is weak and stable, mainly relying on exports for inventory reduction [26]. - **Recommendation**: The price increase is blocked, and attention should be paid to the pressure level around 1740 [26].

板块表现 重点关注 尿素、焦煤、原油、螺纹、PP 夜盘表现 非金属建材, 2.72% 贵金属, 27.38% 油脂油料, 12.18% 煤焦钢矿, 13.44% 能源, 3.14% 化工, 12.38% 谷物, 1.13% 农副产品, 2.90% 商 品 各 板 块 资 金 占 比 -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% -1.00% -0.50% 0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 3.00% 3.50% 商品期货主力合约夜盘涨跌幅 涨跌幅 增仓比率（右轴） -2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 板块涨跌幅（%） 第 1 页，共 3 页 早盘速递 2025/7/3 1、央行近日发文明确，客户单笔或者日累计金额人民币10万元以上（含10万元）现金交易的，贵金属和宝石交易从业机构应当 履行反洗钱义务进行上报，但刷卡消费不受影响。多位专家对此表示，该消息与百姓日常买金关系不大。 2、美国6月ADP就业人数意外减少3.3万人，自2023年3月以来首次负增长，预期为增长 ...

【冠通研究】 制作日期：2025 年 7 月 3 日 【策略分析】 今日沪铜低开高走，尾盘收跌。美国 6 月 ADP 就业人数不增反降 3.3 万，三年多来 首次月度减少；就业市场数据疲软，引发经济衰退预期。基本面来看，供给端，截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日，现货粗炼费为-43.56 美元/干吨，现货精炼费为-4.35 美分/磅。目 前铜冶炼端偏紧预期暂时只反映在数据上，铜供应量依然在走强；库存端全球铜库存去 化，其中套利驱使下，伦铜大幅去化，美铜依然在快速累库，国内目前铜去化幅度较 缓，主要系逢低拿货为主。需求端，受铜关税事件影响，铜出口需求增加，带动表观消 费量的提振。全球经济不确定性的影响下，终端市场相对疲软，下游也多以逢低拿货及 刚需补货为主，6 月系消费淡季阶段，终端家电排产减少，高温下房地产也多拖累，整 体需求反馈不佳，只有逢低采购的支撑存在。除美铜外，其他地区库存均不同幅度的去 化，支撑行情，进口数量降低，加剧国内偏紧供应格局。整体来说，国际铜市场依然在 与铜关税赛跑，跨地区流动造成的偏紧预期是铜价上行的主要逻辑，后续关注美联储降 息预期，对美元指数的影响会加剧铜价波动，本期美国就业数据不 ...

【冠通研究】 沥青：震荡运行 制作日期：2025年7月3日 【策略分析】 逢低做多沥青09-12价差 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回升1.1个百分点至31.5%，较去年同期高了6.9个百分点，沥青开 工率转而回升，处于近年同期中性偏低水平。据隆众资讯数据，7月份国内沥青预计排产254.2万吨， 环比增加14.4万吨，增幅为6.0%，同比增加48.5万吨，增幅为23.6%。上周，沥青下游各行业开工率 涨跌互现，其中道路沥青开工环比上升1.4个百分点至24.0%，仍处于近年同期最低水平附近，受到 资金和南方降雨高温制约。上周西北地区现货价格涨幅较小，出货量增加较多，全国出货量环比增 加0.42%至28.95万吨，处于中性水平。沥青炼厂库存存货比上周环比继续回落，仍处于近年来同期的 最低位，部分地区仍有降雨高温间歇影响，资金仍受制约，北方需求表现尚可。伊朗报复行动力度 不及预期，以色列和伊朗停火，中东地缘风险急剧降温。近日特朗普宣布决定终止原先计划对伊朗 的制裁放松措施。全球贸易战的恐慌情绪缓解，只是全球贸易战阴云仍未完全散去，美国特朗普政 府向雪佛龙公司颁发了简化版的许可证，但禁止在委内瑞拉生产石油，关注委内瑞拉原 ...

【冠通研究】 上涨受阻 制作日期：2025 年 7 月 3 日 【策略分析】 今日尿素盘面高开低走，日内偏强整理。昨日期货翻红后，尿素现货成交 有好转，部分工厂上调报价，但成交量一般。基本面来看，供应端本周继续检 修与复产并行，山西兰花将进行两月左右的检修，河南晋开近日也有检修计 划，日产波动幅度小，近日供给侧改革消息刺激市场对产能产量的担忧，对尿 素影响相对较小，但近期高温临检期间，日产可能有小幅减少。需求端，整体 需求弱稳，农需备货在收尾阶段，复合肥工厂开工负荷维持低位，继续去化库 存为主，目前处于秋季肥前期阶段，内需整体支撑有限。本期库存继续去化， 主要依然依赖于出口的快速集港。整体来看，昨日大宗商品均有不同程度的上 涨，盘面上涨后，现货端更近有限，需求不足，尿素价格上涨受阻，上方关注 1740 左右压力位。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2509 合约 1739 元/吨高开低走，日内偏强震荡，最终 收于 1737 元/吨，收成一根阴线，涨跌+0.4%，持仓量 222192 手（-1691 手）。 前二十名主力持仓席位来看，多头-1541 手，空头-1993 手。其中，宏源期货净 多单增加 483 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 资讯早间报 隔夜夜盘市场走势 4. 芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）农产品期货主力合约收盘全线上涨，大豆期货涨 2.00%报 1047.75 美分/蒲式耳，玉米期货涨 3.02%报 418.25 美分/蒲式耳，小麦 期货涨 2.91%报 565.00 美分/蒲式耳。 5. 国内期货主力合约多数上涨。玻璃涨超 3%，焦煤涨超 2%，铁矿石、焦炭、 棕榈油、菜油、螺纹钢、纯碱涨超 1%。跌幅方面，20 号胶（NR）、玉米、PTA、 沥青、淀粉、PX、瓶片小幅下跌。SC 原油主力合约收涨 2.11%报 509.0 元/桶。 贵金属方面，沪金收涨 0.26%报 779.66 元/克，沪银涨 0.71%报 8845 元/千克。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1. 国际油价强势上扬，美油主力合约收涨 3.18%，报 67.53 美元/桶；布伦特原 油主力合约涨 3.00%，报 69.12 美元/桶。 2. 国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX 黄金期货涨 0.56% ...