今日原油期货主力合约2601合约下跌2.26%至446.1元/吨，最低价在444.4元/吨，最高价在453.3 元/吨，持仓量增加443至29784手。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 【冠通期货研究报告】 原油日报：原油震荡下行 发布日期：2025年12月09日 【行情分析】 欧佩克+最新会议同意2026年维持该组织整体石油产量不变。8个额外自愿减产的产油国重申明 年一季度暂停增产。原油需求旺季结束，EIA数据显示美国成品油库存增幅超预期，原油库存超预期 累库，整体油品库存继续增加。美国原油产量位于历史最高位附近。特朗普政府极力促成俄乌停火， 泽连斯基表示将继续与美国就和平计划进行谈判，俄罗斯原油受制裁而得到的风险溢价有所回落， 欧美成品油裂解基差高位持续回落。普京与美国特使维特科夫就有关俄乌和平计划的会谈持续了近5 个小时。俄美双方达成协议，不透露谈判的实质内容。俄总统特别代表德米特里耶夫说，此次会谈 富有成效。美国和俄罗斯暂未就俄乌问题达成协议。俄乌和谈近期达成较难。目前G7和欧盟考虑禁 止俄罗斯石油出口海运服务，取代油价上限。美国与委内瑞拉军事对 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 沥青日报：低开后震荡运行 发布日期：2025年12月09日 【行情分析】 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回升0.1个百分点至27.9%，较去年同期低了1.0个百分点，仍处于 近年同期最低水平。据隆众资讯数据，12月份国内沥青预计排产215.8万吨，环比减少7.0万吨，减幅 为3.1%，同比减少34.4万吨，减幅为13.8%。上周，沥青下游各行业开工率涨跌互现，其中道路沥青 开工环比持平于29%，受到资金和天气制约。上周，全国出货量环比增加7.06%至28.06万吨，处于中 性水平。沥青炼厂库存存货比环比下降，仍处于近年来同期的最低位附近。伊拉克部分前期故障油 田恢复生产，叠加欧美成品油裂解价差持续下跌，原油价格偏弱震荡。委内瑞拉Jose工业区发生火 灾，20万桶/日的蒸馏装置停运，不过美方对委内瑞拉军事威胁之下，稀释沥青贴水幅度扩大。本周 齐鲁石化计划转产沥青，沥青开工率将略有上升。北方气温下降后，道路施工逐渐收尾，后续需求 将进一步转弱，南方项目增量有限，整体需求一般。近期山东地区沥青价格持续下跌，基差维持在 中性水平，个别炼厂开始释放冬储合同，但目前市场较为谨慎，预计沥青期价偏弱震荡。 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 美联储降息会议前，市场交易谨慎 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 9 日 【行情分析】 今日沪铜高开低走，日内震荡收跌。中国铜冶炼厂采购联合体（CSPT）宣布 2026 年 成员联合减产 10%以上，以应对铜精矿加工费（TC）跌至历史低位（现货 TC 仅 35 美元/ 干吨，长单 TC 65 美元），该消息公布以来，沪铜价格连续大幅上行。11 月再生铜杆开 工率为 23.84%，高于预期 27.68%，环比下降 2.62%，同比下降 12.46%。虽目前精废价差 有优势，但由于终端消费无起色，故优势暂无明显体现。进入 12 月，据 SMM 与市场交流 得到有 4 家冶炼厂检修，预计检修影响量为 0.5 万吨，将在 1 月产量数据有所显示，12 月由于前期冶炼厂多发复产，产量预计有所增加。价格连续上行后，下游承接力度明显 不足，铜管企业目前组织年度生产中，但受制于铜价的不断上涨，企业谨慎态度观望， 增产幅度受限；钢联样本企业铜板带产量 1.49 万吨，周度产能利用率为 65.65%，受成 本上涨影响，生产节奏放缓，且临近年底，企业生产均维持谨慎态度。精铜杆企业开工 下滑，整体出货表现不佳， ...

联系方式：010-85356618 频度：周 最新值 前值 周环比 棕榈油：库存：中国 （万吨） 68.37 65.35 4.62% 菜油：库存：中国 （万吨） 34.70 36.52 -4.98% 压榨厂：豆油：库存： 中国（万吨） 116.30 117.88 -1.34% 棕榈油：期现价差：中 国（元/吨） 42.00 51.00 -17.65% 菜油：期现价差：中国 （元/吨） 428.00 452.00 -5.31% 豆油、棕榈油：期现价 差：中国 （元/吨） -273.00 -178.00 53.37% 棕榈油现货主力合约基 差(元/吨） 43.33 -8.67 -599.77% 菜油现货主力合约基差 (元/吨） 490.75 428.75 14.46% 豆油现货主力合约基差 (元/吨） 293.47 281.47 4.26% 2025-06-06 棕榈油：库存：中国（周） 菜油：库存：中国（周） 油脂 近一年走势 2025-06-23 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 万吨 2022 2023 2024 2025 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 万吨 2022 ...

养殖利润数据报告-大豆、生猪、鸡蛋 | 发布日期 | 2025年12月9日 | 大豆 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 近一年走势 | 频度：日 | 最新值 | 前值 | 日环比 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 豆二指数:收盘价： | 3676.43 | 3706.43 | -0.81% | （元/吨） | | | | | | | | | | | | | 豆粕指数:收盘价： | 2874.27 | 2911.43 | -1.28% | （元/吨） | | | | | | | | | | | | | 豆油指数:收盘价： | 8094.71 | 8141.45 | -0.57% | （元/吨） | | | | | | | | | | | | | 豆二指数压榨利润： | -17.76 | -9.53 | 86.38% | （元/吨） | | | | | | | | | | | ...

早盘速递 2025/12/9 第 1 页，共 3 页 板块持仓 (300,000) (250,000) (200,000) (150,000) (100,000) (50,000) 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 Wind农副产品 Wind谷物 Wind化工 Wind能源 Wind煤焦钢矿 Wind有色 Wind商品综合 Wind软商品 Wind油脂油料 Wind贵金属 Wind非金属建材 近五日商品期货板块持仓变动 2025-12-08 2025-12-05 2025-12-04 2025-12-03 2025-12-02 | | | | 大类资产表现 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 类别 | 名称 | 日涨跌幅% | 月内涨跌幅% | 年内涨跌幅（%） | 近一年走势 | | | 上证指数 | 0.54 | 0.91 | 17.08 | | | | 上证50 | 0.58 | 1.68 | 12.46 | | | | 沪深300 | 0.81 | 2.10 | 17.46 | | | | 中证50 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents a comprehensive overview of the overnight market trends, important macro - economic and industry - specific news, and future event schedules. It covers a wide range of sectors including stocks, bonds, commodities, and foreign exchange, both domestically and internationally. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Night - Market Trends - US major stock indices closed slightly lower, with the Dow down 0.45% at 47739.32 points, the S&P 500 down 0.35% at 6846.51 points, and the Nasdaq down 0.14% at 23545.9 points [5]. - US Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 2 - year yield up 1.68 basis points at 3.575%, the 3 - year up 2.55 basis points at 3.610%, etc. [5]. - International precious metal futures generally fell, with COMEX gold down 0.54% at $4219.90 per ounce and COMEX silver down 0.94% at $58.50 per ounce. Brent crude futures fell 1.98% to $62.49 per barrel [5]. - Most London base metals declined, but LME zinc rose 1.05% to $3130.50 per ton and LME copper rose 0.47% to $11675.00 per ton [6]. Important Information Macro - Information - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee pointed out that next year's economic work should focus on stability, quality improvement, and continue with proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies [9]. - China's goods trade in the first 11 months of this year increased, with a total import - export value of 41.21 trillion yuan, a 3.6% year - on - year increase. In November, the total import - export value was 3.9 trillion yuan, a 4.1% increase [9]. - As of December 8, 2025, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (European route) was 1509.10 points, up 1.7% from the previous period [10]. - As of December 5, domestic coniferous log inventories decreased, while the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs in 7 provinces and 13 ports in China increased by 8.65% compared to the previous week [10]. Energy and Chemical Futures - The Malaysian rubber market is expected to be mixed this week due to supply concerns caused by heavy rain in major rubber - producing areas. The demand for natural rubber is expected to be higher than production in 2025 [13]. - As of December 8, 2025, the commercial inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports increased by 16.07% month - on - month and 72.19% year - on - year [13]. - On December 8 at 24:00, domestic gasoline and diesel retail prices were lowered by 55 yuan per ton [13]. Metal Futures - China's imports of copper ore concentrates in November were 252.6 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to November were 2761.4 tons, an 8.0% year - on - year increase. Exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in November were 57.0 tons, and the cumulative exports from January to November were 558.9 tons, a 9.2% year - on - year decrease [15]. - As of December 5, the inventory of lithium ore in 30 sample traders decreased by 1.0 tons month - on - month, while the salable inventory increased by 0.7 tons. The overall lithium ore inventory continued to shift to lithium salt plants [15]. - In November, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 224.4 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 8.5%. From January to November, the cumulative retail sales were 2175 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 6.3%. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles in November was 59.3%, a 7 - percentage - point increase from the previous year [16][17]. - Tianqi Lithium applied for the qualification of a designated delivery warehouse for lithium hydroxide at the Guangzhou Futures Exchange [17]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reminded investors to prevent risks in the precious metal market [17]. - Morgan Stanley believes there is an upward risk in copper price forecasts [18]. Black - Series Futures - From December 1 to 7, 2025, the arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China decreased by 214.8 tons month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 218.8 tons month - on - month [20]. - China's steel imports in November were 49.6 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to November were 554.1 tons, a 10.5% year - on - year decrease. Exports in November were 998.0 tons, and the cumulative exports from January to November were 10,771.7 tons, a 6.7% year - on - year increase [21]. - In November, coal and lignite imports were 4405.3 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to November were 43167.6 tons, a 12.0% year - on - year decrease. Iron ore concentrate imports in November were 11054.0 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to November were 113920.2 tons, a 1.4% year - on - year increase [22]. - In November 2025, the coal export volume of Gladstone Port in Australia decreased by 1.69% month - on - month and 12.42% year - on - year [22]. - HeSteel's silicon - iron tender inquiry price in December was 5600 yuan/ton, and the tender quantity was 2750 tons, an increase of 34 tons from the previous round [23]. Agricultural Product Futures - China's soybean imports in November were 810.7 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to November were 1.0379 million tons, a 6.9% year - on - year increase. Edible vegetable oil imports in November were 72 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to November were 627 tons, a 3% year - on - year decrease [25]. - From November 24 - 30, 2025, the average purchase price of pigs at designated slaughtering enterprises decreased by 0.9% month - on - month and 27.0% year - on - year [25]. - In November, the soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills was 901 tons, an increase of 18 tons month - on - month and 83 tons year - on - year. It is expected that the soybean crushing volume in December will be about 860 tons, an increase of about 40 tons year - on - year [25]. - As of last Thursday, the soybean planting area in Brazil for the 2025/2026 season reached 94% of the expected area. The corn output in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 1.353 billion tons [26]. - The Indonesian government fined palm oil and mining companies a total of $23.1 billion for illegal operations in forest areas [28]. - US private exporters reported selling 13.2 tons of soybeans to China for delivery in the 2025/2026 season [29]. - As of the week of November 6, the net sales of US soybeans for the 2025/2026 season were 51.1 tons, and the net sales for the 2026/2027 season were 0.4 tons [29]. - As of the week of December 4, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 1018127 tons, and the shipment to China was 119895 tons [29]. Financial Market Finance - The idea of "appropriately loosening restrictions on securities firms" has sparked market discussions, and the industry's overall leverage will remain within a reasonable range [31]. - A - shares rose with heavy trading volume, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.54% at 3924.08 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.39%, and the ChiNext Index up 2.6%. The market turnover exceeded 2 trillion yuan [33]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 1.23% to 25765.36 points, the Hang Seng Technology Index was flat, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 1.25% [33]. Industry - Domestic refined oil prices decreased for the second consecutive time, with gasoline and diesel retail prices lowered by 55 yuan per ton [34]. - The China Trust Industry Association will solicit opinions on the "Guidelines for Family Trust Business" [34]. - In November, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 222.5 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 8.1%. The retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles was 59.3%. The 2026 car market is expected to face great pressure [34]. - A land parcel in Shenzhen was successfully auctioned, with a premium rate of 42.49% [34]. - Nomura Securities reported that the global storage market is facing a "triple super - cycle", and the market size is expected to grow by 98% to $4450 billion in 2026 [35]. Overseas - The Fed will hold an interest - rate meeting on December 9 and 10, and the market expects a 25 - basis - point rate cut [37]. - US President Trump will sign an AI regulatory executive order and plans to launch a $120 - billion agricultural assistance program [37]. - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will delay the release of the October PPI data until January 14, 2026 [37]. - European leaders discussed a peace plan for the Ukraine crisis with President Zelensky [38]. - Japan's Q3 2025 GDP was revised down, and real wages have declined for ten consecutive months [38]. - European Central Bank's Schnabel believes that economic and inflation risks are on the upside [38]. International Stock Markets - US major stock indices closed slightly lower, with the Dow down 0.45%, the S&P 500 down 0.35%, and the Nasdaq down 0.14%. European major stock indices closed mixed [39]. - Unilever's Magnum ice - cream company was listed on multiple exchanges. In 2024, it had revenues of 79 billion euros and a 21% share of the global ice - cream retail market [39]. Commodities - The International BIS warned that retail investors' "chasing behavior" is turning gold into a speculative asset [40]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reminded investors to prevent risks in the precious metal market [40]. - US oil and Brent crude futures prices fell due to supply - side relief and weak demand [41][42]. - International precious metal futures generally fell, mainly due to market - priced Fed policy expectations, short - term dollar rebound, and profit - taking [42]. - Most London base metals declined, with LME zinc and copper rising [42]. Bonds - The domestic bond market rebounded in the afternoon, and the central bank conducted 1223 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 147 billion yuan [43]. - Wanda Commercial Management Group proposed to extend the maturity of a $4 - billion dollar bond by two years [44]. - US Treasury yields rose across the board, and Japanese government bond yields reached multi - year highs [44]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.0713 on Monday, down 7 basis points from the previous trading day [46]. - The CFETS RMB exchange - rate index and other RMB exchange - rate indices decreased last week [46]. - The US dollar index rose 0.12% at the New York close, and most non - US currencies fell [46]. - The Indian rupee was sold off, and the Indian central bank intervened, but its further intervention space may be limited [46]. Upcoming Events - Various economic data will be released on December 9, including UK retail sales, Australian business confidence, etc. [48] - Multiple important events will occur on December 9, such as the expiration of 1563 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations by the Chinese central bank, the RBA's interest - rate decision, etc. [50]

【冠通期货研究报告】 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 8 日 尿素周报： 基本面偏强，盘面下跌有支撑 摘要： 上周尿素盘面反弹乏力，周一下挫低开。尿素现货市场来看，周 内尿素价格稳中上涨，虽高价订单成交有限，但企业待发充足，挺价意 愿强，周末以来，价格以稳运行，新单成交有限。基本面来看，上周尿 素产量下降，其中气头装置产量下降近 10%，主要系限气影响，后续预 计西南地区气头装置继续停车，上游供货压力有所缓解，成本端煤炭价 格旺季证伪，价格下移后，尿素价格支撑乏力。下游内需整体向好，本 期工厂开工负荷继续增加，同时厂内成品库存增加，目前产能利用率基 本接近于历史同期高位水平，预计开工继续上涨空间不足，后续以销定 产。目前东北地区入库量虽有减少，但同比去年偏高，12 月东北三省复 合肥工厂开工将继续有增加。其他工业需求受原料端的价格抑制，预计 后续上涨乏力。随着气头装置的不断停产，尿素高日产压力有所缓解， 且下游冬储、复合肥工厂、出口等需求增量依旧，尿素持续去化，去库 幅度增大。本周一尿素价格下挫，但限气、出口及冬储支撑下，难有大 幅下跌，移仓换月中，谨慎多空。 现货市场动态 尿素现货市场来看，周内尿素价格稳 ...

本期 前值 涨跌 河北 1730 1730 0 河南 1690 1710 -20 山东 1690 1720 -30 山西 1560 1560 0 江苏 1690 1710 -20 安徽 1690 1700 -10 黑龙江 1760 1760 0 内蒙古 1770 1770 0 河北东光 1710 1710 0 山东华鲁 1710 1710 0 江苏灵谷 1730 1730 0 安徽昊源 1660 1660 0 山东05基差 -35 -68 33 山东01基差 -53 -88 35 河北05基差 -15 -38 23 河北01基差 -33 -58 25 1-5价差 57 56 1 5-9价差 -18 -20 2 仓单数量（张） 仓单数量合计 11526 10485 1041 中东FOB 375 384 -9 美湾FOB 355.5 369 -14 埃及FOB 450 460 -10 波罗的海FOB 360 367.5 -8 巴西CFR 405 415 -10 注:数据来源于Wind，钢联数据，冠通研究整理 冠通期货 研究咨询部 王静 执业资格证书编号：F0235424/Z0000771 联系方式：010-853 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 08 日 商品表现 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 期市综述 截止 12 月 08 日收盘，国内期货主力合约涨跌不一，生猪、低硫燃 ...