Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of plastics has limited improvement. With new capacity coming into production recently, the开工 rate is relatively high compared to PP, and the concentrated demand for plastic film has not started yet. It is expected that the L - PP spread will decline. The plastics market is expected to fluctuate within a range [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On February 5th, new maintenance devices such as the full - density line 1 of Guangdong Petrochemical were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 90.5%, which is at a moderately high level. As of the week of January 30th, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 1.77 percentage points to 37.76% week - on - week. The orders and raw material inventory of agricultural film decreased slightly, and the orders of packaging film also decreased slightly. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in the same lunar period in recent years. At the end of January, the petrochemical inventory was quickly reduced and is currently at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. Due to the repeated geopolitical situation in Iran and the US reducing tariffs on India, the crude oil price rebounded. New capacities of 500,000 tons/year of BASF (Guangdong) FDPE and 300,000 tons/year of Yulong Petrochemical LDPE/EVA were put into production in January 2026. The plastic operating rate has slightly decreased recently. The concentrated demand for plastic film has not started, the temperature has dropped, terminal construction has slowed down, and the demand in the north has decreased. It is expected that the downstream operating rate will continue to decline, and terminal factories will mainly make rigid - demand purchases [1]. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures**: The plastic 2605 contract decreased in position, fluctuated and declined. The lowest price was 6,750 yuan/ton, the highest price was 6,900 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6,777 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 1.81%. The position decreased by 6,547 lots to 522,504 lots [2]. - **Spot**: Most of the PE spot market declined, with the price change ranging from - 100 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,700 - 7,170 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,500 - 9,080 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,810 - 8,090 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On February 5th, new maintenance devices such as the full - density line 1 of Guangdong Petrochemical were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 90.5%, which is at a moderately high level [4]. - **Demand**: As of the week of January 30th, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 1.77 percentage points to 37.76% week - on - week. The orders and raw material inventory of agricultural film decreased slightly, and the orders of packaging film also decreased slightly. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in the same lunar period in recent years [4]. - **Inventory**: The petrochemical early - morning inventory on Thursday decreased by 65,000 tons to 420,000 tons week - on - week, 105,000 tons lower than the same lunar period last year. At the end of January, the petrochemical inventory was quickly reduced and is currently at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [4]. - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 04 contract rose above $68/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat week - on - week at $700/ton, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene decreased by $5/ton to $675/ton week - on - week [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report doesn't provide a clear industry investment rating [1][2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of coke is directly affected by upstream coking coal costs, downstream steel demand, and macro - policy orientation. The comprehensive inventory of coking coal and coke continues to rise and is in the seasonal inventory accumulation stage. With the end of pre - holiday restocking by downstream steel mills and approaching the Spring Festival holiday, there is an expectation of reduced supply. Coking is in continuous loss, and coking enterprises have a strong willingness to raise prices. There are still policy expectations at the macro level. Overall, coke will mainly fluctuate widely, continue to rebound in the short term, and a low - buying strategy can be adopted, while paying attention to the pressure near the previous high [2] Group 3: Summary of Related Content 1. Coke Inventory - As of January 30, the comprehensive coke inventory increased by 13.3 tons to 1012.35 tons, reaching a 7 - and - a - half - month high with a year - on - year decline of 3.44% [1] 2. Profit - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 55 yuan/ton. The average profit of Shandong quasi - first - grade coke turned positive to 2 yuan/ton, that of Hebei quasi - first - grade coke is 0 yuan/ton, that of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke is - 41 yuan/ton, and that of Inner Mongolia second - grade coke is - 92 yuan/ton [1] 3. Downstream Demand - This week, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills increased by 0.32% to 79% week - on - week and 1.02% year - on - year. The profitability rate decreased by 1.3% to 39.39% week - on - week. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate slightly dropped to 85.47%, and the daily average pig iron output decreased by 0.12 tons to 227.98 tons week - on - week [1] 4. Upstream Coking Coal - As the Spring Festival approaches, there is an expectation of reduced supply. The coking coal inventory of mines decreased by 7.2 tons to 267.2 tons; the comprehensive coking coal inventory increased by 46 tons to 2864.34 tons week - on - week, and the year - on - year decline narrowed to 8.57% [1] 5. News - Due to the Indonesian government's proposed large - scale production cut plan, Indonesian miners have suspended spot coal exports. According to the China Iron and Steel Association, the steel inventory of key enterprises in late January was 1471 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 8.8% [1]

玻璃日报：短期震荡偏强 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 5 日 【冠通期货研究报告】 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货市场：玻璃主力低开低走，日内走弱。120 分钟布林带三轨开口向 上，短期震荡偏强信号，压力关注布林带上轨附近，支撑关注日线的 30 均线附 近。成交量较昨日减 76.2 万手，持仓量较昨日减 78483 手；日内最高 1109，最 低 1078，收盘 1088，（较昨结算价）跌 15 元/吨，跌幅 1.36%。 2，现货市场：华北，市场稳定，整体出货尚可；华东，采购情绪偏淡，厂 家报价暂稳；华中，中下游拿货理性，成交平平；华南，除少数加工厂赶工外， 多数下游放假，采购情绪下降。 3，基差：华北现货价格 1020，基差-68 元/吨。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 利润方面，天然气浮法玻璃周均利润-155.12 元/吨，环比+3.57 元/吨；煤 制气浮法玻璃周均利润-68.5 元/吨，环比-3.39 元/吨；石油焦浮法玻璃周均利 润 1.07 元/吨，环比+2.85 元/吨。 三、主要逻辑总结 玻璃核心矛盾在 "供应收缩预期"（冷修+政策 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market's consistent expectation of a bumper harvest and ample supply in South America is being further strengthened, but due to uncertainties in post - holiday soybean auctions and arrivals, it is not advisable to be overly bearish. The futures market is expected to fluctuate widely [2]. - The introduction of the US 45Z clean fuel production tax credit mechanism is reshaping the policy environment and profit logic of soybean biodiesel. It is a "differentiated reshaping" rather than an overall benefit. The market is in a relatively strong oscillation pattern with limited downside and weak upward drive [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Soybean Meal - Trump posted on "Truth Social" that China will increase this year's soybean procurement to 20 million tons and has promised to purchase 25 million tons next year. As of the end of January, China has bought about 12 million tons of US soybeans, fulfilling the agreement made at the end of October last year [2]. - Affected by this news, US soybeans rose significantly to around 1100 cents, but the Brazilian soybean premium dropped by 15 - 25 cents, restricting the increase of imported soybeans [2]. - Institutions have significantly raised the production estimate for Brazil's 2025/26 season, and the harvest progress is better than last year. Although there are still some uncertainties in local weather, the market's consistent expectation of a bumper harvest and ample supply in South America is being further strengthened [2]. Edible Oils - The US Treasury Department released the proposed 45Z rules on Tuesday, with the official release date of the 45Z clean fuel production tax credit rules set for February 4. The rules implement changes in "A Grand and Beautiful Act", including extending the tax credit until 2029, canceling the special credit rate for sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), canceling the indirect land - use change penalty, and restricting eligibility to raw materials sourced from the US, Canada, and New Mexico [2]. - The 45Z policy is reshaping the policy environment and profit logic of soybean biodiesel. Low - carbon, large - scale, and traceable soybean biodiesel still has development space, while the traditional high - CI model will face greater profit pressure [3]. - Although the US 45Z policy strongly supports US soybean oil, its restrictions on raw material imports make it difficult for the benefits to spread to the domestic market. The market is in a relatively strong oscillation pattern with limited downside and weak upward drive [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ eight member countries will maintain the original plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March. Although it is the off - season for crude oil demand, due to the impact of winter storms, EIA data shows that US crude oil inventories have decreased more than expected, and refined oil inventories have also decreased significantly. However, the global floating crude oil storage is high, and the crude oil market is still in a supply - surplus pattern. The latest January EIA monthly report has raised the surplus amplitude for 2026. Chevron is increasing the transportation of Venezuelan crude oil, but currently, Venezuela has little impact on the global crude oil supply - demand. Geopolitical risks in Iran are highly uncertain, and the US - Iran nuclear negotiation is scheduled to be held in Muscat. The US has reduced tariffs on Indian goods, and India may increase crude oil purchases from the Middle East and the Americas. The first - day negotiation between Russia, the US, and Ukraine has ended, and the restart of the Tengiz oil field is in progress but with limited capacity recovery. Due to the repeated geopolitical situation in Iran and the weakening of the current cold wave, crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the near future [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - OPEC+ eight member countries will suspend the increase in oil production in March. The winter storm has led to an unexpected reduction in US crude oil and refined oil inventories, but the global floating crude oil storage is high, and the supply - surplus pattern remains. Chevron is increasing Venezuelan crude oil transportation. Geopolitical risks in Iran are uncertain, with the US - Iran nuclear negotiation scheduled. The US has reduced tariffs on Indian goods, and India may adjust its crude oil procurement. The first - day negotiation between Russia, the US, and Ukraine has ended, and the Tengiz oil field is restarting with limited capacity recovery. Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [1]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The main crude oil futures contract 2603 rose 1.13% to 463.5 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 457.5 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 475.0 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 6074 to 21605 lots [2]. 3. Fundamental Tracking - The EIA monthly report raised the 2026 WTI crude oil price by 0.79 dollars/barrel to 52.21 dollars/barrel, lowered the 2026 global oil demand from the previous forecast of 105.2 million barrels/day to 104.8 million barrels/day, and raised the 2026 global oil production from the previous forecast of 107.4 million barrels/day to 107.7 million barrels/day. The IEA raised the 2026 global oil demand growth rate by 70,000 barrels/day to 930,000 barrels/day and raised the 2026 global oil production growth rate by 100,000 barrels/day to 2.5 million barrels/day. US EIA data on February 4 showed that for the week ending January 30, US crude oil inventories decreased by 3.455 million barrels (expected to increase by 489,000 barrels), gasoline inventories increased by 685,000 barrels (expected to increase by 1.389 million barrels), refined oil inventories decreased by 5.553 million barrels (expected to decrease by 2.255 million barrels), and Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 743,000 barrels [3]. 4. Supply - side Situation - The OPEC latest monthly report showed that OPEC's crude oil production in November was adjusted down by 21,000 barrels/day to 28.459 million barrels/day, and its production in December 2025 increased by 105,000 barrels/day to 28.564 million barrels/day. Due to the winter storm, US crude oil production in the week of January 30 decreased by 484,000 barrels/day to 13.215 million barrels/day, the largest decline since January 19, 2024. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased to 20.802 million barrels/day, a 2.54% increase compared to the same period last year. Gasoline weekly production decreased by 6.90% to 8.153 million barrels/day, with a four - week average production of 8.262 million barrels/day, a 0.44% decrease compared to the same period last year. Diesel weekly production increased by 5.92% to 4.31 million barrels/day, with a four - week average production of 4 million barrels/day, a 2.35% increase compared to the same period last year. The increase in diesel and other oil products drove the weekly supply of US crude oil products to continue to increase by 3.28% [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The aromatics market stopped falling and rebounded, and attention should be paid to inventory changes. The market may further rebound, but short - term observation of market sentiment and inventory changes is needed [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - As of January 27, the total inventory of styrene in the mainstream storage areas of East China's Jiangsu Province fluctuated between 94,500 and 123,300 tons. The inventory of major ports in East China was still at a historically low level, and spot liquidity remained tight [1] - As of the week of January 22, the capacity utilization rate of EPS was 58.71%, a month - on - month increase of 4.66%. In the off - season of downstream demand, merchants were cautious about chasing up prices, and the overall trading atmosphere was poor [1] - The capacity utilization rate of PS was 57.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%. Although the Nanjing plant resumed production and Guangxi Changke restarted, Lianyungang Petrochemical and Ningbo Liwan each reduced one production line. The industry supply was temporarily stable, the total supply was flat, market shipments were average, and inventory started to rise [1] - The capacity utilization rate of ABS was 66.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 3%. Manufacturers' supply was still very tight, mainly controlling shipments. After entering January, most of the goods were high - priced. After the Spring Festival, market inquiries increased, trading volume expanded, and prices rebounded. In addition, the capacity utilization rate of UPR was 38%, a month - on - month decrease of 1%; the operating rate of styrene - butadiene rubber was 82.92%, remaining stable month - on - month [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - The US ADP employment number in January was lower than expected - Nine units including the Ministry of Commerce issued the "2026 'Happy Shopping during the Spring Festival' Special Activity Plan" [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - The market fluctuated within the day and may further rebound. Attention should be paid to the previous high for upward pressure. Short - term observation of market sentiment and inventory changes is required [3]

【冠通期货研究报告】 甲醇日报：静待库存拐点 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 5 日 【基本面分析】 库存数据：截至 2026 年 2 月 4 日，中国甲醇港口库存总量在 141.10 万吨， 较上一期数据减少 6.11 万吨。其中，华东地区去库，库存减少 6.48 万吨；华南 地区累库，库存增加 0.37 万吨。本周甲醇港口库存去库，周期内显性外轮卸货 计入 12.73 万吨。江浙一带终端刚需尚稳，主流社会库提货一般，卸货减量下库 存减少。本周华南港口库存呈现累库。广东地区周内少量进口及内贸船只到货， 主流库区提货量一般，库存波动不大。福建地区进口船货继续补充，在刚需以及 节前备货推进下提货量表现稳健，但仍难敌供应增加，库存有所累库。 【宏观面分析】 本报告发布机构 执业资格证书编号：F03095011/Z0020103 注：本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于财政部、隆众数据、Wind、 金十期货网站。 美国 1 月"小非农"ADP 就业人数不及预期。 商务部等 9 单位印发《2026"乐购新春"春节特别活动方案》。 【期现行情分析】 日内小幅震荡，支撑关注日 K 级别 60 日均线，中期继续关注库 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term cautious and bullish rating on hot - rolled coils [6] Core Viewpoints - The hot - rolled coil futures market is oscillating weakly, with supply relatively stable and demand showing strong resilience despite a decline due to the approaching Spring Festival. The total inventory is at a high level mainly because of high - level social inventory, and there is still inventory pressure. Attention should be paid to the resumption of manufacturing operations after the Spring Festival and the inventory depletion speed [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Futures Price**: On Thursday, the open interest of the main hot - rolled coil futures contract increased by 11,934 lots, and the trading volume was 283,875 lots, a decrease compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3255 yuan, the high was 3278 yuan, and the market was oscillating weakly. In the short - term, it fell below the 5 - day, 30 - day, and 60 - day moving average lines, closing at 3263 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan or 0.40% [1] - **Spot Price**: The price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai, a mainstream area, was reported at 3260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] - **Basis**: The basis between futures and spot was - 3 yuan [3] 2. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of February 5, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils decreased by 0.05 million tons to 3.0916 million tons week - on - week and decreased by 11.03 million tons year - on - year. The current output is at a moderately high level in recent years, indicating that steel mills maintain a high production pace before the Spring Festival and production enthusiasm has increased [4] - **Demand**: As of February 5, the weekly apparent consumption decreased by 5.87 million tons to 3.0554 million tons week - on - week and decreased by 8.11 million tons year - on - year. Affected by the Spring Festival shutdown, the demand of downstream manufacturing industries has declined, but it is still at a relatively high level in recent years and shows certain resilience [4] - **Inventory**: As of February 5, the total inventory increased by 3.62 million tons to 3.592 million tons week - on - week (social inventory increased by 2.12 million tons week - on - week, and steel mill inventory increased by 1.5 million tons). The pressure is concentrated in social inventory, and the steel mill inventory is controllable, indicating inventory backlog in the distribution link and insufficient willingness of downstream buyers to purchase [4] - **Policy**: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products will cause short - term export fluctuations, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The central economic meeting in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, which is beneficial to prices and industry profits, and efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [4][5] 3. Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: Supply contraction, demand resilience, and policy support (the 14th Five - Year Plan, infrastructure investment) [6] - **Bearish Factors**: Unexpected resumption of production by steel mills, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6] 4. Short - term View Summary - The hot - rolled coil futures decreased in volume today. Short - term pressure is near the 30 - day moving average, and the lower support is the previous low. Adopt a cautious and bullish approach. Currently, the supply is relatively stable, and although the demand has declined mainly due to the approaching Spring Festival, it still shows strong resilience. The total inventory is at a high level mainly due to high social inventory pressure, and inventory pressure still exists. Attention should be paid to the resumption of manufacturing operations after the Spring Festival and the inventory depletion speed [6]

【冠通期货研究报告】 铁矿日报：商品情绪走弱，期现价格承压 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 5 日 一、市场行情态势回顾 1、期货价格：铁矿石期货主力合约日内震荡偏弱，收于 768.5 元/吨，较 前一个交易日收盘价下跌-13 元/吨，跌幅-1.66%，成交 33.2 万手，持仓量 52.5 万手，沉淀资金 88.78 亿。短期破位之后，呈现一定偏弱。 2、现货价格：港口现货主流品种青岛港 PB 粉 775 跌-9，超特粉 660 跌- 9，掉期主力 100.75(-1.4)美元/吨。现货、掉期价格小幅回落。 3、基差价差端：青岛港 PB 粉折盘面价格 812.6 元/吨，基差 44.1 元/吨， 基差小幅收缩；铁矿 5-9 价差 17.5 元，铁矿 9-1 价差 10 元，铁矿期货合约呈 现 back 结构+正基差，但短期稍显破位偏弱。 二、基本面梳理 海外矿山发运环比增加，主要是巴西发运明显恢复；本期到港继续走弱， 前期发运下降传导至到港，由于天气影响供给端存扰动预期；需求端，铁水产 量环比略降，钢厂盈利率有所走弱，刚需偏稳，春节临近钢厂补库加速，随着 补库推进，对价格的支撑可能逐渐弱化。库存方面，港口继 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cyclical bottom of soybeans has emerged with limited room for subsequent decline, and soybeans are expected to continue in a volatile trend. Corn is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations before the Spring Festival, and it can still be considered for buying on dips if there is a significant decline [1]. - The national egg market prices have stabilized in many places but are still falling locally. There is no obvious short - term driver, and excessive bearishness is not recommended. The Spring Festival is the darkest time for live pigs, and subsequent attention should be paid to the regulation of reproductive sows to construct a supply - demand balance sheet for the far - month [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Soybeans - Low - protein soybeans in the Northeast region have stable prices, with limited grassroots inventory and strong price - holding mentality. High - protein soybeans are in short supply, with high - quality products commanding higher prices, and some 39% protein - content commodity beans are priced around 2.2 yuan per catty [1]. - On February 2nd, 60,608 tons of 2022 - produced reserve soybeans were auctioned in places like Jiayin, Shangzhi, and Hulunbuir, all of which were sold at an average price of 4,297.6 yuan per ton and a maximum premium of 310 yuan per ton. However, the high - price acceptance in the overall market remains weak [1]. Corn - The Northeast corn market has entered a small peak of pre - festival grain sales. With increased supply and decreased demand, the price trend is weak. In Shandong, the grain sales progress has exceeded 50%. The market supply increment is limited, and the price is slightly stronger. Corn is expected to fluctuate widely before the festival, and buying on dips can be considered in case of a large decline [1]. Eggs - Egg prices in the national market have stabilized in many places but are still falling locally. The inventory days in the production link in February are estimated to average about 2.50 days, with the monthly inventory center significantly higher than that in January, which will have a phased impact on prices. There is no obvious short - term driver, and excessive bearishness is not recommended [2]. Pigs - At the end of 2025, the number of reproductive sows was 39.61 million, a decrease of 1.16 million or 2.9%. The number of live pigs slaughtered in 2025 was 719.73 million, an increase of 17.16 million or 2.4%. At the end of 2025, the live pig inventory was 429.67 million, an increase of 2.24 million or 0.5% [2]. - From late January to early February, as the pre - festival slaughter window narrows, concentrated slaughter may drive pig prices further down. The Spring Festival is the darkest time for live pigs, and subsequent attention should be paid to the regulation of reproductive sows [2][3].