Group 1: Hot News - China Futures Association suggests continuous expansion of specific futures varieties and steady opening of the "variety pool", expanding the scope of specific varieties at a "mature one, include one" pace, and optimizing cross - border fund settlement and bonded delivery networks [2] - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange is advancing the research and development of innovative products like the Baltic Panamax Dry Bulk Freight Index Futures (BPI Index Futures) and exploring settlement price authorization cooperation with overseas futures exchanges [2] - Regarding India media's report on China lifting rare - earth export restrictions on India, the spokesperson said she was unaware of the situation and emphasized cooperation to maintain global supply - chain stability [2] Group 2: Key Focus and Night - session Performance - Key commodities to focus on are coking coal, butadiene rubber, glass, soda ash, and urea [3] - Night - session performance shows the following sector percentage increases: non - metallic building materials 2.95%, precious metals 26.23%, oilseeds and oils 13.19%, non - ferrous metals 21.11%, soft commodities 2.63%, coal - coking - steel - minerals 14.71%, energy 3.27%, chemicals 11.72%, grains 1.21%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.99% [3] Group 3: Position Changes - The document presents the position changes of commodity futures sectors in the past five days, covering multiple sectors such as agricultural and sideline products, grains, chemicals, energy, coal - coking - steel - minerals, non - ferrous metals, etc. [4] Group 4: Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity market: Shanghai Composite Index has a daily decline of 0.02%, a monthly increase of 4.31%, and a yearly increase of 11.20%; other indices like S&P 500, Hang Seng Index, etc., also have different performance data [5] - Fixed - income market: 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures have different daily, monthly, and yearly performance data [5] - Commodity market: CRB Commodity Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, etc., show various price changes [5] - Other assets: US Dollar Index and CBOE Volatility Index have their respective performance data [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For Shanghai copper, the market is speculating on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. The fundamental situation has no significant change. The market is waiting for new drivers, with support at 78,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting on Thursday [10]. - For lithium carbonate, in the short term, the price will fluctuate at a high level due to frequent disturbances at the mine end and the approaching peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" [11]. - For crude oil, the supply - demand situation is weakening, and the price is expected to decline under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies [14]. - For asphalt, it is recommended to view it as a weak and volatile market due to the weakening cost side [15]. - For PP, it is expected to fluctuate in the near term. It is recommended to take profit and exit the 09 - 01 reverse spread [17]. - For plastic, it is expected to fluctuate in the near term. It is recommended to take profit and exit the 09 - 01 reverse spread [18]. - For PVC, it is expected to fluctuate downward. It is recommended to take profit and exit the 09 - 01 reverse spread [20]. - For coking coal, the market sentiment is cooling, and the futures price will mainly fluctuate at a high level [21]. - For urea, in the short term, it will mainly show a strong and volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the Indian tender in September [23]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of the close on August 19, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed trends. Urea rose more than 3%, PX and rapeseed meal rose more than 1%. Silicon iron fell more than 3%, and manganese silicon, alumina, soda ash, and eggs fell more than 2%. Stock index futures of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all declined, while treasury bond futures of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year all rose [6]. - As of 15:21 on August 19, in terms of capital flow, palm oil 2601, glass 2601, and soybean meal 2601 had capital inflows, while CSI 300 2509, CSI 1000 2509, and CSI 500 2509 had capital outflows [8]. Shanghai Copper - Supply: In May, refined copper production increased by 14.0% year - on - year. The port inventory of concentrate copper ore has decreased to a five - year low. The collapse of the El Teniente mine has led to a short - term reduction in global supply. The TC/RC fees continue to rise steadily. There is only one smelter with a maintenance plan in August, and a new smelter in East China has started production. Production may decline in the later third quarter [10]. - Demand: Downstream demand is lukewarm. New orders have increased, but the market trading volume has decreased month - on - month. Real estate still drags down demand, but the power grid and new energy bring demand resilience. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased this week, indicating a weak demand and a loose supply - demand pattern [10]. Lithium Carbonate - Supply: As of the week of August 14, the weekly output of lithium carbonate increased by 424 tons compared with the previous week. The spot price of spodumene has been rising, supporting the price of lithium carbonate [11]. - Demand: The market's purchasing sentiment has increased, and there is a sentiment of holding back sales at high prices. In the short term, the price will fluctuate at a high level due to the approaching peak season and supply - side disturbances [11]. Crude Oil - Supply: OPEC + plans to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September. EIA and IEA have raised the forecast of global oil surplus [12]. - Demand: It is in the late stage of the seasonal travel peak. The inventory of crude oil and diesel has increased, and the overall oil product inventory continues to rise. The economic situation in the United States has raised concerns, which will increase the pressure on crude oil prices in the fourth quarter [12]. Asphalt - Supply: Last week, the asphalt operating rate rebounded by 1.2 percentage points to 32.9%. The estimated production in August decreased by 5.1% month - on - month but increased by 17.1% year - on - year [15]. - Demand: The operating rates of downstream industries mostly increased last week, but the national shipment volume decreased by 11.34% month - on - month. The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries has increased, and the demand is affected by factors such as funds and rainfall [15]. PP - Supply: The operating rate of PP enterprises is around 84%. The production ratio of standard - grade drawstring has decreased to about 25%. A new production capacity is planned to be put into operation in August, and the number of maintenance devices has slightly decreased [16]. - Demand: The downstream operating rate has rebounded to 49.35%, but it is still at a low level in the same period of previous years. Downstream demand is weak, and inventory pressure is still high. It is expected to enter the peak season soon, and the operating rate of plastic weaving has slightly increased [16]. Plastic - Supply: The plastic operating rate has dropped to about 82.5%. A new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year has been put into operation recently, and the operating rate has slightly decreased [18]. - Demand: The downstream operating rate has increased to 39.47%, but it is still at a low level in the same period of previous years. The orders of agricultural films and packaging films have decreased. The consumption off - season has not ended, and the inventory pressure is still high [18]. PVC - Supply: The PVC operating rate has increased to 80.33%. New production capacities will be put into production in August, September. The export expectation in the second half of the year has weakened [19][20]. - Demand: The downstream operating rate has slightly decreased. The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, and demand has not improved substantially. The inventory pressure is large [19][20]. Coking Coal - Supply: The supply data has increased this period, the production of clean coal and raw coal has increased, and the inventory of mine clean coal has decreased [21]. - Demand: The profit of independent coking enterprises has turned positive, and the production of downstream coke has increased while the inventory has decreased. However, the iron - water production has decreased this period, and the profitability of steel mills has weakened. The seventh round of coke price increase has started, but there is resistance from downstream customers [21]. Urea - Supply: The production of urea plants increased last week, and there were both shutdowns and restarts this period, with overall narrow fluctuations [22]. - Demand: Domestic demand is insufficient. The compound fertilizer factories are in the early stage of autumn fertilizer production, and the operating rate has reached a historical high. The melamine operating rate has decreased, and the terminal furniture market is cold. The inventory of urea plants has increased and is at a five - year high [22][23].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Urea prices opened high and closed low, then rallied in the afternoon, with an intraday increase of nearly 4%. The market is expected to be bullish in the short - term, mainly due to the positive impact of the China - India friendly talks and the expected increase in India's urea export quota. However, the high inventory level of urea factories restricts the upward space of urea prices [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Urea futures opened high and closed low, then rallied in the afternoon, with an intraday increase of nearly 4%. The upstream factory's shipment atmosphere improved, and the spot trading atmosphere is expected to improve tomorrow. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is in the range of 1680 - 1710 yuan/ton. The overall domestic demand is insufficient, and the urea factory's inventory is expected to continue to increase. The market is expected to be bullish in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the Indian tender in September [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - **Futures**: The main urea 2601 contract opened at 1756 yuan/ton, closed at 1817 yuan/ton, with a gain of 3.53%. The trading volume increased by 29,238 lots to 213,033 lots. Among the top 20 positions, long positions increased by 14,980 lots, and short positions increased by 22,768 lots. Some futures companies' net long and net short positions changed [2][3] - **Spot**: The upstream factory's quotes rose steadily. Affected by the futures turning positive, the upstream factory's shipment atmosphere improved. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is in the range of 1680 - 1710 yuan/ton [6] Fundamental Tracking - **Basis**: The mainstream spot market quotes decreased, and the futures closing price increased. Based on Shandong, the basis weakened compared with the previous trading day, entering the risk - free arbitrage range, with the January contract basis at - 77 yuan/ton (- 63 yuan/ton) [7] - **Supply Data**: On August 19, 2025, the national daily urea output was 194,200 tons, the same as yesterday, with an operating rate of 82.69% [11]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper market opened lower and trended downwards. The market is speculating on the Fed's interest - rate cut situation ahead of the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting. The fundamental situation has no significant change, and the market is waiting for new drivers. There is support at 78,000 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the Jackson Hole meeting on Thursday [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Market sentiment: The Jackson Hole meeting is approaching, and the market is speculating on the Fed's interest - rate cut. Powell is expected to make cautious decisions. The improvement of the Russia - Ukraine situation has cooled market risk - aversion sentiment [1]. - Supply: In May, refined copper production increased by 14.0% year - on - year. Concentrate port inventories are at a five - year low. TC/RC fees are stabilizing and rising. Long - term contracts are profitable, while spot contracts are still in the red. The high sulfuric acid price supports smelter profits. Only one smelter has a maintenance plan in August, and a new smelter in East China has started production. Production is expected to be stable in the short term, but smelters may cut or stop production in the later third quarter due to tight ore resources and sulfuric acid overstock [1]. - Demand: Downstream demand is lukewarm. New orders have increased, but market trading volume has decreased month - on - month. The real estate sector still drags down demand, with a 12% year - on - year decline in real estate development investment and a 4% decline in new commercial housing sales area from January to July. However, the power grid and new energy sectors bring demand resilience. SHFE inventories increased this week, indicating short - term weak demand and a loose supply - demand pattern [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures market opened lower and closed at 78,890 yuan/ton. The long positions of the top 20 decreased by 3,052 to 94,551 lots, and short positions decreased by 4,444 to 92,496 lots [4]. - Spot: The spot premium in East China is 155 yuan/ton, and in South China is 50 yuan/ton. On August 18, 2025, the LME official price was 9,730 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 103.5 US dollars/ton [4]. Supply - side - As of August 8, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 37.98 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 3.79 cents/pound [6]. Fundamental Tracking - SHFE copper inventories remained unchanged at 25,500 tons. As of August 18, Shanghai Free Trade Zone copper inventories increased by 7,500 tons to 88,200 tons. LME copper inventories decreased slightly by 450 tons to 155,200 tons, and COMEX copper inventories increased by 1,875 short tons to 269,000 short tons [9].

Report Summary 1. Hot News - The Ministry of Finance will conduct treasury bond market - making support operations to enhance secondary - market liquidity and improve the treasury bond yield curve [1] - As of August 18, 2025, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (European route) was 2180.17 points, down 2.5% from the previous period [1] - China supports efforts for peaceful crisis resolution and welcomes Russia - US contact on the Ukraine issue [2] - Premier Li Qiang emphasized enhancing macro - policy effectiveness, boosting domestic circulation, and stimulating consumption [2] 2. Key Focus - Commodities to focus on: coking coal, rapeseed meal, PX, soda ash, and asphalt [3] 3. Night - session Performance - Sector performance: Non - metallic building materials rose 2.88%, precious metals 26.18%, oilseeds 13.06%, non - ferrous metals 21.24%, soft commodities 2.63%, coal - coking - steel - ore 14.83%, energy 3.29%, chemicals 11.70%, grains 1.21%, and agricultural and sideline products 2.97% [3] 4. Sector Positions - The document shows the five - day changes in commodity futures sector positions from August 12 - 18, 2025 [4] 5. Performance of Major Asset Classes | Asset Class | Name | Daily Return (%) | Monthly Return (%) | Year - to - date Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | 0.85 | 4.33 | 11.23 | | | SSE 50 | 0.21 | 2.27 | 5.74 | | | CSI 300 | 0.88 | 4.02 | 7.74 | | | CSI 500 | 1.52 | 7.10 | 16.46 | | | S&P 500 | - 0.01 | 1.73 | 9.65 | | | Hang Seng Index | - 0.37 | 1.63 | 25.51 | | | German DAX | - 0.18 | 1.04 | 22.13 | | | Nikkei 225 | 0.77 | 6.44 | 9.57 | | | FTSE 100 | 0.21 | 0.27 | 12.05 | | Fixed - income | 10 - year Treasury futures | - 0.29 | - 0.43 | - 0.84 | | | 5 - year Treasury futures | - 0.21 | - 0.26 | - 1.02 | | | 2 - year Treasury futures | - 0.04 | - 0.05 | - 0.65 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | 0.16 | - 1.25 | - 0.24 | | | WTI crude oil | 0.88 | - 8.48 | - 11.92 | | | London spot gold | - 0.10 | 1.28 | 26.97 | | | LME copper | - 0.41 | 1.31 | 10.84 | | | Wind Commodity Index | - 0.11 | - 0.40 | 15.15 | | Others | US Dollar Index | 0.31 | - 1.89 | - 9.52 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 0.00 | - 9.75 | - 13.03 | [5] 6. Trends of Major Commodities - The document presents trends of various commodities such as the Baltic Dry Index, CRB Spot Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, CBOT soybeans, and CBOT corn, as well as risk premiums of related stock indices [6]

Report Summary 1. Overnight Market Trends - Geopolitical risks pushed up crude oil prices. The main contract of US crude oil closed up 0.97% at $62.58 per barrel, and Brent crude oil rose 0.97% to $66.49 per barrel [3]. - International precious metal futures closed mixed. COMEX gold futures fell 0.14% to $3378.00 per ounce, while COMEX silver futures rose 0.24% to $38.07 per ounce [4]. - Most London base metals declined. LME aluminum dropped 0.71% to $2588.50 per ton, LME zinc fell 0.39% to $2784.00 per ton, and LME copper decreased 0.22% to $9752.00 per ton [5]. - Domestic futures contracts closed mixed. Rapeseed meal and PX rose over 1%, while coking coal dropped over 2% [5]. - US agricultural futures: soybeans fell 0.24%, corn declined 0.20%, soybean oil rose 0.11%, soybean meal dropped 1.06%, and wheat decreased 0.84% [6]. 2. Important News Macro News - The Ministry of Finance will conduct treasury bond market - making support operations to enhance secondary - market liquidity [9]. - As of August 18, 2025, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (European route) was 2180.17 points, down 2.5% from the previous period [10]. - China supports efforts for peaceful crisis resolution and welcomes Russia - US dialogue on the Ukraine issue [10]. - Premier Li Qiang emphasized enhancing macro - policy effectiveness, stabilizing market expectations, and boosting domestic consumption [10]. Energy and Chemical Futures - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced that offset - printing paper futures will be launched on September 10, 2025, with specific trading rules [12]. - UBS lowered its Brent crude oil price forecast to $62 per barrel by the end of 2025 and March 2026 due to increased South American supply [14]. - A Russian refinery suspended production after a drone attack [15]. Metal Futures - A large recycled lead smelter in East China plans to halt production for a month, and a small one postponed restart [17]. - Indonesia will change its mining approval system from once every three years to once a year [17]. Black - Series Futures - Global iron ore shipments from August 11 - 17, 2025, totaled 34.066 million tons, up 3.599 million tons week - on - week [19]. - Steel inventories in 21 cities increased 2.3% in early August [21]. - Coking enterprises in Hebei and Shandong have more stringent production cuts than steel mills [21]. - Coke prices in Shandong are set to rise starting August 19 [21]. - Manganese ore inventories at major ports decreased by 23,000 tons [22]. - Premier Li Qiang stressed measures to stabilize the real - estate market [22]. Agricultural Futures - Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 15 increased 34.5% month - on - month [25]. - South Africa's sugarcane production in 2025 is expected to reach 17.7 million tons, up 7.47% [25]. - Domestic soybean crushing volume reached 2.34 million tons in the week ending August 15 [25]. - Malaysia's palm oil production from August 1 - 15 increased 0.88% month - on - month [25]. - Palm oil commercial inventories in key regions rose 2.92% week - on - week as of August 15 [26]. - Brazil's second - season corn harvest rate in the central - southern region reached 94% as of last Thursday [26]. - US private exporters sold 124,000 tons of corn for the 2025/2026 season [27]. - US soybean export inspections in the week ending August 14 were 473,605 tons [29]. - The US soybean good - to - excellent rate was 68% as of August 17 [29]. 3. Financial Markets Financial - The Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3700, driven by various types of funds [31]. - A - share market improvement led to increased brokerage account openings, with a 30% - 50% year - on - year increase [31]. - Multiple sources of incremental funds are flowing into the A - share market [31]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.37%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 0.65% [32]. - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange is researching a special voting channel for margin trading accounts [32]. - Tushare's service was interrupted due to a business dispute [32]. - Leapmotor achieved a net profit of 30 million yuan in H1 and raised its sales target [32]. Industry - The State Administration of Radio and Television will improve content supply in the broadcasting and TV sector [33]. - In July, the average price of second - hand homes in 100 cities dropped 0.77% month - on - month [33]. - Auto dealers faced losses in H1 2025, with a less optimistic outlook [35]. - 49 models from 13 auto companies met data - security requirements [36]. - China's smartphone market shipments declined 4.1% in Q2 2025 [36]. - The 2025 movie summer - vacation box office exceeded 10 billion yuan [36]. - The food cold - chain logistics demand reached 192 million tons in H1 2025, up 4.35% [36]. Overseas - The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Symposium is awaited, with different expectations for Powell's speech [37]. - India plans a tax reform in response to potential US tariffs [37]. - Germany requires the US to lower auto tariffs for a broader trade deal [39]. International Stock Markets - US stocks closed mixed, with the Dow down 0.08%, S&P 500 down 0.01%, and Nasdaq up 0.03% [40]. - European stocks closed mixed, with Germany's DAX down 0.18%, France's CAC40 down 0.5%, and UK's FTSE 100 up 0.21% [40]. - Japan's stock market continued to rise, with the Nikkei 225 up 0.77% [40]. - Some Chinese concept stocks may be involved in "pump - and - dump" schemes [41]. - Douyu's Q2 revenue reached 1.054 billion yuan, up 2.1% year - on - year [42]. Commodities - Multiple futures and options will be launched on September 10, 2025 [44]. - Geopolitical risks drove up international oil prices [44]. - International precious metal futures closed mixed [44]. - London base metals mostly declined [44]. Bonds - Bond yields in China generally rose, and the central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations [45]. - The trading association is investigating misappropriation of debt - financing funds [45]. - The central treasury cash - management deposit auction had a winning amount of 120 billion yuan at a 1.78% rate [47]. - The Ministry of Finance will conduct treasury - bond market - making support operations on August 19 [48]. - US Treasury yields mostly increased [48]. Foreign Exchange - China and Thailand renewed a currency - swap agreement [49]. - The on - shore RMB strengthened against the US dollar on Monday [50]. - The US dollar index rose 0.31% in New York trading [50]. 4. Upcoming Events - Key economic data releases include euro - zone June current account, Canada's July CPI, etc. [53] - Multiple events are scheduled for August 19, including central - bank operations, conferences, and corporate earnings announcements [55]

Report Summary Reported Industries - The report focuses on the copper and urea industries [7][10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, after the release of US CPI data, the market increased expectations for a Fed rate cut, with the probability of a rate cut exceeding 90%. However, the soaring US PPI data on Thursday reduced the possibility of an unexpected rate cut, and the US dollar index rebounded accordingly. Domestically, nine departments including the Ministry of Finance jointly implemented a "discount interest" policy for service - industry loans to reduce financing costs and stimulate consumption. The economic data in July was weaker than before, and the central bank stated that it would implement a moderately loose monetary policy [4]. - In terms of supply, the port inventory of refined copper ore has declined to the lowest level in the past five years. The collapse of the El Teniente copper mine in southern Chile led to a short - term reduction in global supply. The TC/RC fees of smelters continued to stabilize and rebound. Long - term contract orders were profitable, while spot orders were still at a loss. The sulfuric acid price was at a historically high level, supporting smelter profits. Only one smelter had a maintenance plan in August, and a newly put - into - production smelter in East China started production. It is expected that the refined copper output will not fluctuate significantly, but smelters may cut or stop production in the later third quarter due to tight ore resources and sulfuric acid inventory [4]. - Regarding demand, downstream demand was lukewarm. Although new orders increased, market trading volume decreased month - on - month. The real estate sector still dragged down downstream demand, with real estate development investment from January to July decreasing by 12% year - on - year and the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreasing by 4% year - on - year. However, the power grid and new energy sectors brought demand resilience. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased this week, reflecting weak short - term demand and a pattern of loose supply and demand [4]. - Overall, last week, the rising expectation of a Fed rate cut boosted the Shanghai copper price. After the PPI data exceeded expectations on Thursday, the Shanghai copper price first rose and then fell, but the overall center of gravity maintained an upward trend. Due to the expected tight supply and the impact of the Chilean copper mine incident, and with the demand side in the off - season, downstream operations remained stable with a downward trend, and the market trading sentiment was lukewarm. The Shanghai copper price maintained a range - bound pattern. A Fed rate cut in September has been confirmed, and an unexpected rate cut should be watched out for [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - On August 12, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the US CPI in July was flat year - on - year at 2.7%, lower than the expected 2.8%, and rose 0.2% month - on - month, in line with market expectations. The core CPI in July rose 3.1% year - on - year, higher than the expected 3%, reaching a new high since February. After the data release, the probability of a Fed rate cut in September exceeded 90%. - On August 14, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that the PPI in July soared to 3.3% year - on - year, the highest level since February this year, far exceeding the expected 2.5%; it rose 0.9% month - on - month, the largest increase since June 2022, cooling the Fed rate - cut expectation [10]. 3.2 Shanghai Copper Price Trend - Last week, Shanghai copper showed an overall oscillatory and strengthening trend. The highest price of the week was 79,510 yuan/ton, the lowest was 78,410 yuan/ton, the weekly amplitude was 1.4%, and the range increase was 0.73% [14]. 3.3 Shanghai Copper Spot Market - As of August 18, the average spot premium in East China was 200 yuan/ton, and the average premium in South China was 40 yuan/ton. The market supply was tight, and with more domestic smelter maintenance, the spot premium strengthened. It is expected that the premium will face pressure after the arrival of imported goods next month [21]. 3.4 LME Copper Price and Inventory - As of August 18, the weekly change rate of LME copper was +0.31%, closing at $9,730/ton. The LME copper spot discount continued to weaken, and the LME copper inventory continued to increase, with sufficient deliverable goods in the market [27]. 3.5 Copper Concentrate Supply - According to customs data, in July 2025, China imported 2.56 million tons of copper concentrate and its ores, a year - on - year increase of 18.24% and a month - on - month increase of 8.94%. From January to July 2025, China imported 17.314 million tons of copper concentrate and its ores, a year - on - year increase of 8.0%. As of August 15, 2025, the inventory of imported copper concentrate at 16 Chinese ports was 422,000 tons, a decrease of 6,700 tons from the previous week. - The El Teniente copper mine of Codelco in Chile had a mine collapse on July 31, and the smelter restarted on August 13 [32]. 3.6 Smelter Fees - As of August 15, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) in China was -$37.65/ton, and the RC fee was -3.76 cents/pound. The TC/RC fees continued to stabilize and rebound. The TC/RC of the long - term contract negotiation result was set at $0/ton and 0 cents/pound. Long - term contract orders were profitable, while spot orders were still at a loss. The sulfuric acid price was at a historically high level, supporting smelter profits. Factory seasonal maintenance plans in September and October will still lead to production reduction [36]. 3.7 Refined Copper Supply - In July, SMM's electrolytic copper output in China was 1.1743 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 39,400 tons and a year - on - year increase of 14.21%. From January to July, the cumulative output was 7.7673 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.82%. With the gradual recovery of previously maintained smelters, only one smelter has a maintenance plan in August, and a newly put - into - production smelter in East China started production. It is expected that the output will not fluctuate significantly. In the later third quarter, production may be cut or stopped due to tight ore resources and sulfuric acid inventory. - In July, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 480,000 tons. From January to July, the cumulative imports were 3.113 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.6% [40]. 3.8 Scrap Copper Supply - In June 2025, scrap copper imports were 183,200 tons, with a relatively high year - on - year import volume and higher than market expectations. - As the price difference between refined and scrap copper increased, the substitution advantage of scrap copper decreased, and the scrap copper utilization rate of smelters decreased [46]. 3.9 Apparent Demand - As of June 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3705 million tons, at a historically high level. Since the beginning of this year, the apparent consumption of copper has been at a high level. It is estimated that China's refined copper consumption will increase by about 2% in 2025 and about 0.8% in 2026. - Downstream demand was lukewarm. Although new orders increased, market trading volume decreased month - on - month. However, the power grid and new energy markets were resilient, providing price support [50]. 3.10 Copper Products - According to Ganglian data, in July 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic refined copper rods was 61.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.85%. The start - up rate was lower than expected. Downstream cable procurement was cautious, the processing fee of copper rods was under pressure, and some refined copper rod enterprises cut production unexpectedly. Currently, the operating load is at a historically low level, and the reduction in August is expected to be limited. - The operating load of copper tube enterprises remained basically stable, showing a slight downward trend. Some manufacturers planned to increase production due to concerns about future supply shortages. Market demand was weak, and there was also phased replenishment [55]. 3.11 Power Grid Project Data - According to data from the National Energy Administration, from January to June, the investment in power grid projects was 291.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14.6%, reaching a record high for the same period. From January to June, the investment in power source projects was 363.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. Solar and wind power increased by 98.8% and 107% year - on - year respectively. The power grid project is still a rigid demand for copper, supporting the copper price [59]. 3.12 Real Estate and Infrastructure Data - From January to July, real estate development investment decreased by 12% year - on - year, and the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 4% year - on - year. From January to July, the sales area of newly built commercial housing was 515.6 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0%, 0.5 percentage points wider than that from January to June; the sales volume of newly built commercial housing was 4,956.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.5%, 0.5 percentage points wider than that from January to June [64]. 3.13 Automobile/New Energy Automobile Industry Data - From August 1 - 10, the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles were 262,000, a year - on - year increase of 6% and a month - on - month increase of 6%, with a penetration rate of 57.9%. As of now, the cumulative retail sales this year were 6.717 million, a year - on - year increase of 28% [70]. 3.14 Global Copper Inventory in Major Exchanges - After the end of the copper siphon effect and a large increase in LME copper inventory, the inventory increase rate has recently slowed down. As of August 15, the LME copper inventory was 155,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.03% and a month - on - month increase of 28.76%. The increase rate of COMEX inventory also gradually slowed down. The COMEX copper inventory was 267,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.16% and a month - on - month increase of 11.59% [76]. - On August 14, the cumulative spot inventory of copper in the bonded areas of Shanghai and Guangdong was 86,800 tons, an increase of 5,900 tons compared with July 7 and an increase of 5,300 tons compared with August 11. The bonded area inventory continued to increase. During the week, the exported goods of smelters continued to arrive and be stored in the warehouse. Although some goods in individual warehouses were cleared and imported into the country, the overall inbound volume was greater than the outbound volume, resulting in an increase in inventory. - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange remained in a low - level oscillation and has not increased significantly yet, but it increased by 3,288 tons compared with the previous week, still showing a pattern of weak downstream demand and loose supply [81].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - Last week, the urea futures market showed a trend of first decline and then rise, with an overall increase. The spot market had a slow start in the first half - week, and the upstream factories lowered prices to attract orders. In the second half - week, the factory orders were sufficient, and the prices stabilized. The overall market trading sentiment was lukewarm. - The supply of urea increased last week, and it is expected that the inventory will continue to rise next week. The high inventory level in recent five years restricts the upward space of urea prices. - The domestic demand is in a slack period, but the industrial demand has resilience, and the export to India and the Indian tender price provide support. The urea price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term with no obvious boost [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Spot Market Dynamics - In the first half - week, the domestic demand in the urea spot market was weak, and the upstream factories lowered their quotes. The situation of attracting orders at low prices was acceptable. In the second half - week, the factories had sufficient pending orders, and the quotes were stable. The market trading sentiment was lukewarm. Since the weekend, the upstream factories lowered prices to attract orders, but the market activity was low [3]. b) Futures Dynamics - Last week, the urea futures first declined and then rose, with an overall increase. As of August 11, the main September contract of urea closed at 1,722 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton from the settlement price on August 4. The trading volume last week was 1,025.55 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 479.45 million tons; the open interest was 614.14 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 41.92 million tons. Currently, the futures price fluctuates between 1,700 - 1,790 yuan/ton. - Last week, the increase of urea futures was stronger than that of the spot, and the basis weakened. As of August 18, the basis of the 01 contract was - 24 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 13 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread was - 36 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 7 yuan/ton. - On August 18, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 3,573, a week - on - week decrease of 50 [6][8]. c) Urea Supply - side - Last week, the weekly output of urea increased. From August 7 - 13, the weekly output of urea was 1.3486 million tons, an increase of 20,100 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 1.51%. The average daily output was 192,700 tons, an increase of 29,000 tons week - on - week. Among them, the coal - based weekly output was 1.059 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.22%; the gas - based weekly output was 289,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.99%. The output of small and medium - sized particles increased by 4.00% week - on - week, and the output of large - sized particles decreased by 8.50% week - on - week. - Next week, it is expected that 1 - 2 enterprises plan to stop production, and 3 - 5 enterprises will resume production. As of August 18, 2025, the national daily output of urea was 194,200 tons, and the operating rate was 82.69%. - In the raw material market, the coal supply was tight, which boosted the coal price. As of August 18, the quotation of Qinhuangdao steam - coal Q5500 was 697 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 17 yuan/ton; the price of anthracite washed small pieces in Jincheng market remained flat at 900 yuan/ton. The price of domestic liquefied natural gas decreased last week. As of August 18, the benchmark price was 4,040 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 58 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.4%. - Last week, the price of synthetic ammonia decreased. As of August 15, the price of synthetic ammonia in Shandong was 2,180 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 120 yuan/ton. The spot price of urea decreased last week. The price difference between synthetic ammonia and urea in Shandong was 480 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 60 yuan/ton. The spot price of methanol increased. As of August 15, the quotation of methanol was 2,390 yuan/ton, and the price difference between methanol and urea was 690 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 55 yuan/ton [12][14][15]. d) Urea Demand - side - Last week, the price of compound fertilizer remained flat. As of August 15, the quotation of 45% sulfur - based compound fertilizer was 2,950 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change. Currently, compound fertilizer factories are in the initial stage of autumn fertilizer production, and the operating load has continued to rise to the high level of the same period in history. The finished product inventory in the factory has been at a high level for several months. During the initial stage of autumn compound fertilizer production, there is no pressure for compound fertilizer factories to purchase raw materials. From August 8 - 14, the operating rate of compound fertilizer was 43.48%, an increase of 1.98 percentage points from the previous week, and 3 percentage points higher than the same period last year. - From August 8 - 14, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 49.82%, a decrease of 11.28 percentage points from the previous period, and 17.82 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The operating load of melamine decreased, summer maintenance started, and there are still maintenance plans in the future. The terminal panel furniture market is sluggish, affected by the real estate industry. - As of August 15, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 957,400 tons, an increase of 69,800 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week increase of 7.86%, and 520,200 tons higher than the same period last year. The port sample inventory was 464,000 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons from the previous week [17][19]. e) International Market - After China started urea exports, the tight supply situation in the international urea market began to ease. Currently, the inventory in India is still low, and it is expected to start another import tender around September. The tender demand from India provides support for the global urea market. It is expected that China's exports will end in October, and Brazil's imports are expected to resume in September. - India's NFL issued a new round of urea import tender, targeting to purchase 2 million tons (1 million tons each for the east and west coasts). The bid closing date is September 2, the bid validity period is September 10, and the shipping date is October 31. - As of August 15, the FOB price of small - sized Chinese urea was 450 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 US dollars/ton; the FOB price of large - sized Chinese urea was 460 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 7.5 US dollars/ton. The prices of other regions also showed different degrees of decline [20][21][23].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints -沪铜维持区间震荡，需警惕九月美联储超预期降息 [9] -碳酸锂价格短期高位震荡 [11] -原油供需转弱，价格预计承压下行，建议逢高做空 [12] -沥青以偏弱震荡为主 [14] - PP预计近期震荡运行，建议09 - 01反套止盈离场 [15] -塑料预计近期震荡运行，建议09 - 01反套止盈离场 [17] - PVC预计震荡下行，09 - 01反套止盈离场 [19] -焦煤近期高位震荡为主 [20] -尿素短期维持震荡区间波动，行情震荡 [22] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview -截至8月18日收盘，国内期货主力合约有涨有跌，碳酸锂涨超4%，焦煤、鸡蛋跌超2%；沪深300、上证50、中证500、中证1000股指期货主力合约上涨，2年、5年、10年、30年期国债期货主力合约下跌 [6] -截至08月18日15:40，中证1000 2509、沪深300 2509、上证50 2509资金流入，中证500 2509、三十年国债2509、沪金2510资金流出 [7] Specific Futures Analysis Copper -今日沪铜高开低走，午后下挫；供应端精铜矿港口库存低，智利铜矿坍塌致供应短期减少，冶炼厂利润受硫酸价支撑，预计精铜产量波动不大，后期或减产；需求端下游需求不温不火，房地产拖累但电网及新能源带来韧性，上期所库存累库；整体沪铜维持区间震荡 [9] Lithium Carbonate -今日碳酸锂高开高走涨幅近5%，受青海某锂盐企业停产消息刺激，供应端干扰引发产量偏紧预期，成本端支撑价格，需求端拿货情绪增加，短期价格高位震荡 [10][11] Crude Oil -原油处于季节性出行旺季尾声，油品库存增加，OPEC + 9月增产，沙特上调售价，美国经济数据引发担忧，EIA和IEA上调过剩幅度，预计价格承压下行 [12] Asphalt -供应端开工率回升但仍偏低，8月排产环比减少同比增加；需求端下游开工率多数上涨但受资金和天气制约，出货量减少，库存上升但仍处低位；成本端原油下行压力大，预计偏弱震荡 [14] PP -下游开工率回升但处偏低水平，企业开工率上涨，标品拉丝生产比例下降，石化库存偏高；成本端原油价格下跌，供应新增产能计划投产，需求弱库存压力大，预计震荡运行 [15] Plastic -开工率下跌至中性水平，下游开工率上升但仍处偏低位，石化库存偏高；成本端原油价格下跌，供应新增产能投产，需求淡季库存压力大，农膜备货或有提振，预计震荡运行 [17] PVC -上游电石价格下跌，供应端开工率增加，下游开工率减少采购谨慎，出口预期减弱，社会库存增加，房地产仍在调整，新增产能投产，预计震荡下行 [18][19] Coking Coal -今日高开高走午后下挫，现货价格有降有平，供给增加，下游焦炭产量增加但铁水产量下降，钢厂盈利走弱，关注提涨及开工情况，近期高位震荡 [20] Urea -今日盘面高开低走震荡偏强，工厂产量窄幅波动，需求端复合肥开工回升但暂无拿货压力，三聚氰胺开工降低且有检修计划，库存累库，预计短期震荡 [21][22]