早盘速递 2025/9/8 热点资讯 1、美国劳工统计局公布，美国8月非农就业仅增长2.2万人，远不及市场预期的7.5万人。6月非农就业数据由此前的增加2.7万 人大幅下修至减少1.3万人，为自2020年以来首次出现月度就业人数萎缩。8月失业率升至4.3%，为2021年以来新高。相关数据 进一步提升美联储9月降息预期。 5、美国总统特朗普宣布，从全球国别关税中豁免金条及石墨、钨、铀等金属产品，同时将硅酮产品纳入征税范围。根据美国政 府星期五（9月5日）发布的行政令，这项关税调整将于9月8日生效。特朗普政府的对等关税正对一系列矿产品予以取消或者豁 免，其中重点包括用于航空航天、消费电子、医疗器械及其他技术领域的关键材料。 板块表现 重点关注 尿素、焦煤、多晶硅、原油、沥青 夜盘表现 非金属建材, 2.66% 贵金属, 29.03% 油脂油料, 10.93% 有色, 21.81% 软商品, 2.38% 煤焦钢矿, 14.33% 能源, 2.67% 化工, 12.17% 谷物, 1.10% 农副产品, 2.92% 商 品 各 板 块 资 金 占 比 -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10. ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The price of copper is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish. The Fed's expected rate cut and a falling US dollar index support the non - ferrous metals market. Domestic copper supply is expected to tighten, while demand is expected to improve during the peak season. Attention should be paid to US non - farm payroll data [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply of lithium carbonate remains abundant, but production cut disturbances continue. The market rumors of production cuts and the "Golden September and Silver October" expectations drive up the price [10]. - **Crude Oil**: As the consumption peak season is ending and OPEC+ is accelerating production increases, the supply - demand balance of crude oil will weaken. It is recommended to short on rallies. Attention should be paid to the OPEC+ meeting and possible sanctions on Russian oil [11][13]. - **Asphalt**: The supply and demand of asphalt are both weak. Given that the futures price has fallen to the lower edge of the trading range and the OPEC+ meeting this weekend may have a significant impact, it is recommended to close short positions for now [14]. - **PP**: PP is expected to trade in a range with limited downside. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the number of maintenance devices has increased recently. Downstream industries are gradually entering the peak season, which may bring some support [15][17]. - **Plastic**: Plastic is expected to trade in a range with limited downside. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the开工 rate has decreased recently. The agricultural film industry is entering the peak season, which may boost demand [18]. - **PVC**: The price of PVC is expected to decline with fluctuations. The supply is increasing, the demand has not improved substantially, and the inventory pressure is high [19][20]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply and demand of coking coal are both in the process of recovery. Anti - involution measures are ongoing, and capital sentiment is volatile. Caution is advised when taking long or short positions [21]. - **Urea**: Urea is expected to trade weakly in the short term, with possible technical rebounds later. Domestic demand is insufficient, and short - term export support is limited [23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Futures Market Overview** - As of the close on September 5, most domestic futures contracts rose. Polysilicon rose 8.99% and hit the daily limit, coking coal rose over 6%, glass and coke rose over 4%. In terms of declines, eggs, low - sulfur fuel oil (LU), and asphalt fell over 1%. Stock index futures rose, while treasury bond futures fell [6]. - In terms of capital flow, polysilicon 2511 had an inflow of 1.901 billion, rubber 2601 had an inflow of 901 million, and palm oil 2601 had an inflow of 556 million. The CSI 300 2509 had an outflow of 4.704 billion, the CSI 1000 2509 had an outflow of 4.179 billion, and the CSI 500 2509 had an outflow of 2.692 billion [7]. **Analysis of Each Variety** - **Copper**: Due to the lower - than - expected US ADP employment data, the Fed's expected rate cut expands, and the US dollar index falls. The processing fee of smelters has decreased recently, and the sulfuric acid price is at a high level. Five smelters plan to conduct maintenance in September, and domestic copper production is expected to decline. Although it is currently the off - season, copper demand is boosted by investment in power grid facilities. As the peak season approaches, demand is expected to improve [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased slightly. The supply in Jiangxi has shrunk, but the increase in spodumene production has made up for the gap. The national audit agency's policy on mines in Yichun needs attention. The import volume of lithium carbonate in July decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [10]. - **Crude Oil**: It is at the end of the seasonal travel peak. EIA data shows an unexpected inventory build - up in crude oil and an unexpected de - stocking in gasoline. OPEC+ plans to increase production in September, and Saudi Arabia may lower the official selling price in October. The US - India tariff issue may change the global crude oil trade flow [11]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt production rate has declined, and the expected production in September will increase. The downstream construction rate has mostly fallen, and the inventory - to - sales ratio of refineries has decreased but remains at a low level. The cost support has weakened due to the possible increase in OPEC+ production [14]. - **PP**: The downstream construction rate has rebounded slightly, and the enterprise construction rate has decreased. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the cost has decreased due to the possible increase in OPEC+ production. As the peak season approaches, downstream demand is expected to increase [15][17]. - **Plastic**: The construction rate has decreased, and the downstream construction rate has increased. The agricultural film industry is entering the peak season, and new production capacity has been put into operation. The cost has decreased due to the possible increase in OPEC+ production [18]. - **PVC**: The upstream calcium carbide price has increased slightly. The supply has increased, and the downstream construction rate is still low. The export outlook is weak, and the inventory pressure is high. New production capacity is being released [19][20]. - **Coking Coal**: The price has risen. Most of the temporarily shut - down mines in Jinzhong have resumed production, and the inventory of mines has dropped significantly. Downstream coke production is active, and steel mills' profits have weakened. After the parade, steel mill production is expected to increase [21]. - **Urea**: The upstream factory price is weakly stable, and new orders are scarce. The Indian tender price is significantly lower than the previous one, and the tender volume has reached a record high. The daily production of urea is at a low level, but the supply pattern remains loose. The demand from compound fertilizer factories has decreased but is expected to recover. The factory inventory has increased [23].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends a strategy of shorting on rallies for crude oil [1]. Core Viewpoints - Crude oil is at the end of the seasonal travel peak season. EIA data shows unexpected crude oil inventory build - up and significant gasoline inventory draw - down, with an overall increase in oil product inventories. The US refinery utilization rate has slightly declined. OPEC + is accelerating production increases, and there are signs of further production hikes. The supply - demand balance of crude oil is expected to weaken, so shorting on rallies is advised [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The strategy is to short on rallies. OPEC + 8 voluntary - cut countries decided to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, and may consider further production increases. EIA and IEA have both raised the forecast of global oil surplus, increasing pressure on crude oil in the fourth quarter. The end of the consumption peak season and potential sanctions on Russia also affect the market. Attention should be paid to OPEC + meetings and potential sanctions on Russian oil [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The main crude oil futures contract 2510 fell 0.03% to 482.0 yuan/ton, with a low of 478.5 yuan/ton and a high of 482.0 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 2399 to 25,244 lots [2]. Fundamental Tracking - EIA expects global oil inventory increases to exceed 2 million barrels per day in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, an upward revision of 0.8 million barrels per day from last month. EIA has also lowered the average Brent crude oil price forecasts for 2025 and 2026. OPEC maintains the 2025 global crude oil demand growth rate at 1.29 million barrels per day and raises the 2026 rate to 1.38 million barrels per day. IEA raises the 2025 and 2026 global oil supply growth rates and lowers the 2025 demand growth rate [3]. - On September 4, EIA data showed that US crude oil inventories for the week ending August 29 increased by 2.415 million barrels, against an expected decrease of 2.031 million barrels. Gasoline inventories decreased by 3.795 million barrels, and refined oil inventories increased by 1.681 million barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 1.59 million barrels [3]. - OPEC's June crude oil production was revised down by 46,000 barrels per day to 27.543 million barrels per day, and its July 2025 production increased by 262,000 barrels per day to 27.543 million barrels per day, mainly driven by Saudi Arabia and the UAE. US crude oil production in the week of August 29 decreased by 16,000 barrels per day to 13.423 million barrels per day [4]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased to 21.282 million barrels per day, up 3.89% year - on - year. However, weekly gasoline and diesel demand decreased, leading to a 4.45% week - on - week decrease in the weekly supply of US crude oil products [4][6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Downstream domestic demand is insufficient, short - term export boost is limited, and urea is expected to run weakly. There is a technical rebound expected due to the support of autumn fertilizers and off - season storage. Caution is advised when short - selling [1] Summary by Related Content Strategy Analysis - Urea futures opened high and closed flat, with upstream factory quotes weakly stable and new orders having poor sales. Indian NFL's September 2nd urea import tender price was significantly lower than the previous one, and the tender volume reached 5.6 million tons, a record high [1] - Recent urea daily production fluctuated within 180,000 - 190,000 tons, the lowest in recent months, but it was normal summer maintenance and did not change the loose supply pattern [1] - Affected by parades and major meetings, compound fertilizer factories' production decreased significantly this period, and are expected to gradually resume production this week. Northeast fertilizer preparation will start slowly, and factory inventories continued to accumulate, increasing by 0.92 tons (0.85% month - on - month) compared to last week [1] Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Urea's main 2601 contract opened at 1,718 yuan/ton, closed flat at 1,713 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 236,446 lots (+2,095 lots). Among the top 20 positions, long positions increased by 891 lots and short positions increased by 3,287 lots [2] - Spot: Upstream factory quotes were weakly stable, and new orders had poor sales. Small - particle urea ex - factory prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei were mostly in the range of 1,650 - 1,680 yuan/ton [1][6] Fundamental Tracking - Basis: Based on the Henan region, the basis of the January contract was - 13 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day [9] - Supply: On September 5, 2025, the national urea daily production was 183,400 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous day, and the operating rate was 77.49% [10] - Warehouse receipts: On September 5, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 8,299, an increase of 371 compared to the previous trading day, with 271 in Liaoning Fertilizer and 100 in Beifeng Seed Industry [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content. Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report indicates that the US dollar index has declined due to the significant difference between the actual and expected increase in the US ADP employment in August and the expansion of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, which supports the non - ferrous metal market. Domestically, copper supply is expected to tighten as the smelter processing fees have decreased, the sulfuric acid price is at a high level, 5 smelters have maintenance plans in September, and the import of copper will impact the domestic market. Although it is currently the off - season for copper consumption, the increasing investment in domestic power grid facilities has driven copper demand, and there is an expectation of improved demand during the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October". Therefore, it is expected that copper prices will be mainly oscillating and strengthening, and attention should be paid to the US non - farm payroll data [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The US ADP employment in August increased by 54,000, far from the market expectation of 65,000, and the July data was revised to 104,000. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations have expanded, leading to a decline in the US dollar index. The smelter processing fees have decreased after a short - term rebound, and the sulfuric acid price is expected to be at a high level, which will reduce the profit compensation for smelters. Five smelters have maintenance plans in September, involving a crude smelting capacity of 1 million tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper production in September is expected to decline month - on - month. After the copper tariff is implemented, imported copper will flow back to the domestic market, squeezing the domestic market and affecting pricing. As of July 2025, the apparent copper consumption was 1.3745 million tons. Although it is the off - season, the increasing investment in domestic power grid facilities has driven copper demand. Currently, the downstream's willingness to buy is poor after the copper price rises, and the premium is under pressure, but there is an expectation of improved demand during the peak seasons [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: Shanghai copper opened lower and rose during the day, closing at 80,140 yuan/ton at the end of the session. Spot: The spot premium in East China was 140 yuan/ton, and in South China was 40 yuan/ton. On September 4, 2025, the LME official price was 9,885 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 72 US dollars/ton [4]. Supply Side - As of the latest data on August 29, the spot crude smelting fee (TC) was - 41.25 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.12 US cents/pound [7]. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 18,900 tons, a decrease of 902 tons from the previous period. As of September 4, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 80,100 tons, a decrease of 2,800 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 158,000 tons, a decrease of 200 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 302,700 short tons, an increase of 18,344 short tons from the previous period [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market shows a situation of weak supply and demand. As the asphalt futures price has dropped to the lower edge of the shock range and the OPEC+ meeting on the weekend has a significant impact, it is recommended to temporarily stop profiting and exit short positions in asphalt [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The asphalt production rate decreased by 1.2 percentage points to 28.1% week-on-week, still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. In September, the domestic asphalt is expected to have a production volume of 2.686 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 273,000 tons (11.3%) and a year-on-year increase of 683,000 tons (34.1%). The downstream construction rates of asphalt mostly declined this week, and the national shipment volume decreased by 0.11% week-on-week to 263,500 tons, at a moderately low level. The inventory ratio of asphalt refineries decreased week-on-week but remained at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. The cost support of asphalt has weakened, and it is recommended to temporarily stop profiting and exit short positions in asphalt [1] Futures and Spot Market - The asphalt futures contract 2510 fell 0.91% to 3,467 yuan/ton today, below the 5-day moving average. The lowest price was 3,441 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,480 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 16,035 to 54,826 lots [2] Basis - The mainstream market price in Shandong region remained at 3,520 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 10 contract rose to 53 yuan/ton, at a moderately high level [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, the production rates of some major refineries in South China and Southwest China decreased slightly, and the asphalt production rate decreased by 1.2 percentage points to 28.1% week-on-week, still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. From January to July, the national highway construction investment decreased by 8.0% year-on-year, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate rebounded slightly compared with that from January to June 2025 but was still negative. As of the week of September 5, the downstream construction rates of asphalt mostly declined, and the road asphalt construction rate decreased by 0.83 percentage points to 27.5% week-on-week, reaching the lowest level in the same period in recent years, restricted by funds and rainfall and high temperatures in some areas [4] Inventory - As of the week of September 5, the inventory ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 14.5% compared with the week of August 29, still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core View of the Report - No relevant content found Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Inventory Data - Port total inventory this period is 13,825.32, up 62.30 from last period [2] - Steel mill imported ore inventory this period is 8,939.87, down 67.32 from last period [2] - Trade ore inventory this period is 9,007.96, down 53.06 from last period [2] - Brazilian ore inventory this period is 5,118.96, up 82.2 from last period [2] - Australian ore inventory this period is 5,876.02, down 102.29 from last period [2] - Coarse powder inventory this period is 10,848.69, up 135.53 from last period [2] - Lump ore inventory this period is 1,584.09, down 69.81 from last period [2] - Pellet inventory this period is 284.38, up 1.01 from last period [2] - Concentrate inventory this period is 1,108.16, down 4.43 from last period [2] Supply and Demand Data - Daily average port cargo clearance this period is 317.78, down 0.86 from last period [2] - Steel mill imported ore daily consumption this period is 280.67, down 15.43 from last period [2] - Arrival volume this period is 2,526, up 132.70 from last period [2] - Domestic iron concentrate powder production this period is 38.2, down 1.33 from last period [2] - Daily average hot metal production this period is 228.84, down 11.29 from last period [2] - Steel mill blast furnace start - up rate this period is 80.4%, down 2.80% from last period [2] - Steel mill capacity utilization rate this period is 85.79%, down 4.23% from last period [2] - Steel mill profitability rate this period is 61.04%, down 2.6% from last period, but the profit margin increased by 3.00 [2]

Group 1: Hot News - The People's Bank of China will conduct a 1000 billion yuan outright reverse repurchase operation on September 5, 2025, with a term of 3 months (91 days) [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued the Action Plan for Stable Growth of the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry from 2025 - 2026, aiming to promote high - quality development in areas such as photovoltaics and address "involution - style" competition [2] - The Ministry of Commerce decided to implement anti - circumvention measures against US - imported optical fiber products starting from September 4, 2025 [2] - The Coke Association believes that current coke does not meet the conditions for price reduction, and enterprises will jointly limit production to maintain prices [2] Group 2: Plate Performance - Key focus: Coking coal, coke, Shanghai silver, stainless steel, Shanghai gold [3] - Night session performance: Non - metallic building materials rose 2.69%, precious metals rose 29.55%, oilseeds rose 10.84%, non - ferrous metals rose 21.35%, soft commodities rose 2.42%, coal - coking - steel - ore rose 14.38%, energy rose 2.77%, chemicals rose 11.98%, grains rose 1.09%, and agricultural and sideline products rose 2.94% [3] Group 3: Plate Position - There are data on the position changes of commodity futures plates in the past five days, including Wind agricultural and sideline products, Wind grains, Wind chemicals, etc. [4] Group 4: Performance of Major Asset Classes Equity - The Shanghai Composite Index had a daily decline of 1.25%, a monthly decline of 2.39%, and an annual increase of 12.36% [5] - The S&P 500 had a daily increase of 0.83%, a monthly increase of 0.65%, and an annual increase of 10.55% [5] Fixed - income - The 10 - year Treasury bond futures had a daily increase of 0.13%, a monthly increase of 0.42%, and an annual decrease of 0.61% [5] Commodity - The CRB commodity index had a daily decline of 0.77%, a monthly decline of 0.66%, and an annual increase of 1.22% [5] Other - The US dollar index had a daily increase of 0.13%, a monthly increase of 0.44%, and an annual decrease of 9.41% [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively presents the overnight performance of the domestic and international futures markets, important macro - economic news, and the trends of various financial markets including stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange. It also provides inventory data for different industries and corporate earnings reports, reflecting the complex and changeable situation of the current market [3][24][42]. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Trends - Domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance, with Jiaomei, coke, methanol, and rubber rising over 1%, while stainless steel, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, and silver falling over 1% [3]. - International precious metal futures generally declined, with COMEX gold futures down 0.91% at $3602.40 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 1.77% at $41.32 per ounce. The Fed has intensified internal differences on monetary policy [3]. - Oil prices were pressured by OPEC's production increase expectations. WTI crude futures fell 0.98% to $63.34 per barrel, and Brent crude futures fell 1.11% to $66.85 per barrel. High - grade expects Brent crude to fall to $50 in 2026 due to oversupply [3]. - London base metals all declined, with LME aluminum down 1.11% at $2590.00 per ton, LME copper down 0.84% at $9891.50 per ton, etc. [3]. Important Information Macroeconomic News - The People's Bank of China will conduct a 1000 - billion - yuan repurchase operation on September 5, 2025, with a term of 3 months [6]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued the "Stable Growth Action Plan for the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry from 2025 - 2026" [6]. - The Ministry of Commerce decided to implement anti - circumvention measures against US - originated optical fiber products starting from September 4, 2025 [6]. Energy and Chemical Futures - As of September 4, domestic soda ash factory inventory decreased by 4.54 million tons week - on - week to 1.8221 million tons, a decline of 2.43%. Float glass sample enterprise inventory increased by 484,000 heavy boxes week - on - week to 63.05 million heavy boxes, an increase of 0.77% [8]. - As of September 4, the inventory of fixed caustic soda sample enterprises increased by 2.17% week - on - week to 387,800 tons. The capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.76% week - on - week to 20.97% [8]. - As of September 3, Singapore's fuel oil inventory increased by 2.675 million barrels to 27.399 million barrels, a 37 - week high [10]. - As of September 4, East China port methanol inventory increased by 65,100 tons week - on - week to 709,900 tons [11]. - As of August 29, US natural gas inventory increased by 55 billion cubic feet week - on - week to 3272 billion cubic feet, a year - on - year decrease of 2.2% [11]. - For the week of August 29, US crude oil exports increased by 74,000 barrels per day to 3.884 million barrels per day, domestic production decreased by 16,000 barrels to 13.423 million barrels per day, commercial crude inventory increased by 2.415 million barrels to 421 million barrels, and strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 509,000 barrels to 404.7 million barrels [11]. Metal Futures The inventory data for soda ash, caustic soda, fuel oil, methanol, natural gas, and crude oil are the same as those in the energy and chemical futures section [13][14][16]. Black - Series Futures - The Coking Association believes that coke does not have the conditions for price cuts and will jointly limit production to maintain prices [18]. - As of September 4, rebar production decreased by 18,800 tons week - on - week to 2.1868 million tons, factory inventory increased by 17,200 tons week - on - week to 1.7134 million tons, social inventory increased by 148,900 tons week - on - week to 4.6866 million tons, and apparent demand decreased by 21,400 tons week - on - week to 2.0207 million tons [18]. - The average national profit per ton of coke is 64 yuan/ton, with different profitability in different regions [18]. Agricultural Product Futures - Malaysia's palm oil production in August is estimated to increase by 2.07%, with different trends in different regions, and the total output is estimated to be 1.85 million tons [21]. - As of September 1, Xinjiang cotton's average boll opening rate is 27.7%, an increase of 12.4 percentage points week - on - week. New cotton is expected to be listed 10 - 15 days earlier than usual [21]. - As of September 2, about 16% of US soybean planting areas are affected by drought (previously 11%, 19% last year), about 9% of corn planting areas are affected (previously 5%, 13% last year), and about 30% of cotton planting areas are affected (unchanged from the previous week, 41% last year) [21]. - Brazil's soybean exports in September are expected to be 6.75 million tons, soybean meal exports are expected to be 6.37 million tons, and corn exports are expected to be 1.94 million tons [22]. Financial Markets Finance - A - shares weakened unilaterally, with technology stocks falling widely. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.25% to 3765.88 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.83%, and the ChiNext Index fell 4.25%. The market turnover was 2.58 trillion yuan [24]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 1.12% to 25058.51 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 1.85%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 1.25%. The market turnover was HK$302.233 billion [26]. - Some public funds believe that the A - share correction on September 4 is a normal adjustment [26]. - As of the end of August, the market value of the Hong Kong securities market was HK$46.6 trillion, a year - on - year increase of 47%. The average daily trading volume in August was HK$279.1 billion, a year - on - year increase of 192% [27]. - Zijin Mining plans to conduct an IPO of its international gold mining business in Hong Kong, with a potential financing of over $3 billion [28]. Industry - From January to July, China's renewable energy new installed capacity was 283 million kilowatts, with a total installed capacity of 2.171 billion kilowatts, accounting for nearly 60% of the national total [29]. - In September, the enthusiasm of real estate developers to launch new projects increased. The supply in 28 cities increased by 10% month - on - month [29]. - The Securities Association of China launched the evaluation of the investment banking, bond, and major asset restructuring financial advisory businesses of securities companies in 2025 [30]. Overseas - US President Trump signed an executive order to implement the US - Japan trade agreement. Japan plans to increase US rice purchases by 75% [32]. - The US trade deficit in July soared 32.5% month - on - month to $78.3 billion, a four - month high [32]. - The US government criticized Norway's sovereign wealth fund for exiting its investment in Caterpillar [32]. - The US Department of Justice launched a criminal investigation into Fed Governor Cook [32]. - The US ADP employment in August increased by only 54,000, far lower than expected. The market bets that the Fed will cut interest rates in September with a nearly 100% probability [33]. - US companies announced the addition of only 1494 jobs in August, the lowest in the same period since 2009, and the announced layoffs soared to nearly 86,000 [33]. - The US ISM services PMI in August was 52, the fastest expansion in six months [35]. International Stock Markets - US stocks rose across the board, with the Dow up 0.77%, the S&P 500 up 0.83%, and the Nasdaq up 0.98%. Most Chinese concept stocks fell [36]. - European stocks showed mixed performance, with the German DAX up 0.74%, the French CAC40 down 0.27%, and the UK FTSE 100 up 0.42% [36]. - Nasdaq plans to modify the listing rules for small IPOs, raising the minimum public shareholding and fundraising thresholds [36]. - Deutsche Börse Group will remove Porsche from the DAX index on September 22 [37]. - Goldman Sachs will invest up to $1 billion in T. Rowe Price and cooperate to sell private products to retail investors [38]. - Waterdrop's Q2 net revenue was 838 million yuan, a year - on - year increase of 23.9%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 140 million yuan, a year - on - year increase of 58.7% [39]. - Broadcom's adjusted EPS in Q3 was $1.69, revenue was $15.952 billion [41]. Commodities The performance of precious metals, oil, and base metals is the same as that in the overnight night - market trends section. The OPEC + meeting has not determined the agenda, and an increase in production by 8 countries is not currently on the agenda [42][43]. Bonds - The confidence in the bond market is still insufficient. Bank - to - bank interest - rate bonds fluctuated within a narrow range, and most Treasury bond futures rose [44]. - The bid - to - cover ratio of Japan's 30 - year Treasury bond auction was 3.31, slightly lower than the 12 - month average [46]. - US Treasury yields fell across the board [46]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1402 on Thursday, up 66 basis points from the previous trading day. The central parity rate was 7.1052, up 56 basis points [47]. - The US dollar index rose 0.13% to 98.28. Most non - US currencies fell [47].

Report Summary 1. Market Overview - As of September 4th, most domestic futures main contracts declined. Iron ore, eggs, and lithium carbonate rose over 1%, while jujube and low-sulfur fuel oil (LU) dropped over 3%, and fuel oil, SC crude oil, asphalt, and PTA fell over 2% [6]. - In terms of funds flow, CSI 500 2509, CSI 300 2509, and iron ore 2601 had capital inflows of 2.303 billion, 1.381 billion, and 863 million respectively, while CSI 1000 2509, Shanghai gold 2510, and Shanghai silver 2510 had outflows of 1.833 billion, 1.365 billion, and 957 million respectively [7]. 2. Core Views Copper - Despite being in the off - season, domestic power grid investment boosts copper demand, but external demand will weaken in the second half of the year. With low inventory and expected supply tightness, copper prices are expected to be volatile and bullish. Attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate cut [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Supply remains loose, but production cuts are uncertain. With high inventory and upcoming demand in the peak season, prices are expected to be under pressure. The supply situation in Jiangxi needs attention [11]. Crude Oil - As the consumption peak season ends and OPEC+ plans to increase production, the supply - demand balance will weaken. It is recommended to short at high prices. Attention should be paid to the OPEC+ meeting and potential sanctions on Russia [12][14]. Asphalt - Supply is expected to increase in September, and demand is restricted by various factors. With the weakening cost support from crude oil, asphalt futures are expected to be weak and volatile [15]. PP - Downstream开工率 is low, and new capacity is added. With the approaching peak season, there may be some improvement. The market is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to global trade wars and anti - overcapacity policies [16][17]. Plastic -开工率 is at a medium level, and new capacity is added. Although the agricultural film market is improving, overall demand is weak. The market is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to anti - overcapacity policies [18]. PVC - Supply is high, and demand is weak. With increased inventory and export pressure, PVC is expected to decline. Attention should be paid to anti - overcapacity policies [20]. Coking Coal - Supply is expected to increase, and downstream demand has no obvious improvement. Coking coal is expected to be weak in the near term. Attention should be paid to the coking coal price cut process [21][22]. Urea - Supply is high, and demand is weak. With increased inventory, urea is expected to be weak. However, there may be some support from autumn fertilizers and off - season storage [23].