1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market showed a callback today and is expected to mainly experience narrow - range fluctuations, with both supply and demand weakening month - on - month, but downstream resilience still exists [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - The futures market opened high and closed low with an intraday callback, while the spot price continued to rise but high - end transactions were limited, and the price is expected to remain stable over the weekend. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly between 1,640 - 1,700 yuan/ton, with Henan's price at the lower end [1][4] - Although it is the shutdown period of gas - based plants, the daily production remains above 190,000 tons. The start - up rate of compound fertilizer plants decreased month - on - month due to environmental inspections and poor downstream shipping capacity after price increases. Northeast plants maintain the winter storage production pace. The start - up of upstream and downstream plants was affected by smog, and inventory continued to decline mainly in the Northeast and Northwest, with a slight increase in the main delivery area [1] - The incentive from the Indian tender is insufficient, showing signs of weakening supply and demand month - on - month [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The urea main contract 2605 opened at 1,705 yuan/ton, closed at 1,697 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.41%, and the trading volume was 163,856 lots (+1,329 lots). Among the top 20 positions, long positions decreased by 670 lots and short positions increased by 104 lots. Zhongtai Futures had a net long position of +424 lots, Zhongyuan Futures had a net long position of +227 lots, Guotai Junan had a net short position of - 1,364 lots, and Dongzheng Futures had a net short position of +4,597 lots [2] - On December 19, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 10,976, a decrease of 201 from the previous trading day [2] Spot - The spot price continued to rise, but high - end transactions were limited, and the price is expected to remain stable over the weekend. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is mostly between 1,640 - 1,700 yuan/ton, with Henan's price at the lower end [1][4] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - The basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day. Taking Henan as the benchmark, the basis of the May contract was - 7 yuan/ton (+21 yuan/ton) [7] - On December 19, 2025, the national daily urea production was 194,100 tons, the same as yesterday, and the start - up rate was 79.99% [10]

【冠通期货研究报告】 沪铜日报：震荡偏强 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 19 日 【行情分析】 今日沪铜低开低走，日内保持偏强。美国 11 月 CPI 数据公布，整体和核心数据均大 幅低于预期。11 月 CPI 同比上涨 2.7%，低于预期的上涨 3.1%。11 月 SMM 中国电解铜产 量 110.31 万吨，环比增加 1.15 万吨，环比增幅 1.05%，同比增幅 9.75%。1-11 月累计 产量同比增加 128.94 万吨，增幅为 11.76%。SMM 预计 12 月电解铜产量环比增加 6.57 万 吨，增幅 5.96%，同比增幅 6.69%。本周铜价上涨，铜材利润受挤压，铜板带生产积极性 弱势，产能利用率下滑，生产企业出于原材料价格、库存以及需求等多重因素考虑，普 遍放慢生产节奏；铜管企业受资金压力制约，多数企业选择观望，仅维持刚性订单的原 料提货，市场交易活跃度受到明显抑制。铜箔方面受储能电池需求及终端新能源汽车前 置需求的影响，保持高景气水平。市场受美国经济数据的影响，情绪偏强，矿端加工费 长协后续进展有望对盘面作出意见，短期高位震荡。 资料来源：同花顺期货通（日线图表） 投资有风险，入市需 ...

本期 前值 周变动 本期 前值 周变动 开工率 82.74 84.35 -1.61 开工率 73.990 73.844 0.146 产量 72.14 73.54 -1.4 产线条数 219 219 0 重质产量 39.03 39.78 -0.75 产量 108.4895 108.4895 0 轻质产量 33.11 33.76 -0.65 厂内库存 149.93 149.43 0.5 库存 5855.8 5822.7 33.1 重质库存 77.17 79.05 -1.88 库存可用天数 26.5 26.3 0.2 轻质库存 72.76 70.38 2.38 库存可用天数 12.43 12.39 0.04 产销率 99.31 106.02 -6.71 天然气利润 -181.4 -196.42 15.02 氨碱法毛利 -66.7 -67.6 0.9 石油焦利润 -0.07 35.64 -35.71 联产法毛利 -41 -49 8 煤制气利润 -7.63 6.51 -14.14 基差 -46 10 -56 基差 -52 71 -123 1-5价差 56 50 6 1-5价差 109 97 12 品种套利 纯碱-玻璃0 ...

下游盈利 港口总库存 日均疏港量 钢厂进口矿库存 钢厂进口矿日耗 到港量 内矿铁精粉产量 日均铁水产量 钢厂开工率 产能利用率 钢厂盈利率 本期 15512.63 313.45 8723.95 280.56 2723.4 37.71 226.55 78.47 84.93 35.93 16.50 上期 15431.42 319.19 8834.2 283.27 2480.5 37.99 229.2 78.63 85.92 35.93 24.00 周变动 81.21 -5.74 -110.25 -2.71 242.90 -0.28 -2.65 -0.16 -0.99 0 -7.50 粗粉 块矿 球团 精粉 贸易矿 巴西矿 澳大利亚矿 本期 11799.57 2068.47 320.64 1323.95 本期 10097.66 5795.06 6672.61 上期 11763.4 2057.33 296.47 1314.22 上期 10024.62 5807.04 6667.43 周变动 36.17 11.14 24.17 9.73 周变动 73.04 -11.98 5.18 注:数据来源于Wind，钢联数据，冠通 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告资讯信息来源于万得资讯和金十数据，冠通研究整理编辑 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 资讯早间报 发布日期： 2025/12/19 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 截至 12 月 18 日 23:00 收盘，国内期货主力合约跌多涨少。塑料、纯碱、沥 青跌超 1%，玻璃、20 号胶、橡胶、白糖跌近 1%；涨幅方面，对二甲苯（PX）、 PTA 涨超 2%，瓶片、短纤涨超 1%。 2、国际贵金属期货普遍收跌，COM ...

Report Summary 1. Hot News - On Thursday, the main palladium futures contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange hit the daily limit again, and the main platinum futures contract nearly hit the limit. Starting from the trading session on December 23, 2025, non - futures company members or clients are restricted to a maximum daily opening position of 500 lots for platinum and palladium futures contracts respectively. Also, from the trading session on December 22, the minimum opening order quantity for polysilicon futures contracts is adjusted from 1 lot to 5 lots [3] - China has re - implemented export license management for steel after 16 years, aiming to strengthen monitoring, statistical analysis, and quality tracking of steel product exports. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Commerce has approved some general export license applications for rare earths. China strongly opposes the EU's recent investigations under the Foreign Subsidies Regulation (FSR) and will take necessary measures [3] - A giant undersea gold mine, the only one in China and the largest in Asia, has been discovered in the northern waters of Sanshandao, Laizhou, Shandong. The city's total proven gold reserves exceed 3,900 tons, accounting for about 26% of the country's total, ranking first in both reserves and production nationwide [3] - At the "2025 Annual Conference of the Photovoltaic Industry", Yang Xudong, Director of the Department of Electronic Information of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, stated that the photovoltaic industry governance will enter a critical stage in 2026, with further capacity regulation to achieve dynamic balance. The China Photovoltaic Industry Association did not predict the next - year's new installed capacity [3] - The US core CPI in November 2025 rose 2.6% year - on - year, the slowest pace since early 2021 and lower than the market expectation of 3%. The overall CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, lower than the expected 3.1%. However, the reliability of this inflation report is questioned due to the serious interference of the federal government shutdown in data collection [4] 2. Key Focus - The key commodities to focus on are urea, Shanghai copper, palladium, plastic, and asphalt [5] 3. Night - session Performance - The night - session price changes of different commodity futures sectors are as follows: non - metallic building materials 2.42%, precious metals 33.32%, oilseeds and oils 8.49%, soft commodities 3.33%, non - ferrous metals 23.90%, coal, coke, and steel ore 10.87%, energy 2.51%, chemicals 10.29%, grains 1.27%, and agricultural and sideline products 3.60% [5] 4. Major Asset Performance - **Equity**: The daily, monthly, and annual percentage changes for various stock indices are provided. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index had a daily increase of 0.16%, a monthly decrease of 0.31%, and an annual increase of 15.65%. Other indices like S&P 500, Hang Seng Index, etc., also have their respective performance data [7] - **Fixed - income**: The performance of 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures is presented, including daily, monthly, and annual percentage changes [7] - **Commodity**: The performance of CRB commodity index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, and Wind commodity index is shown, with daily, monthly, and annual percentage changes [7] - **Other**: The performance of the US dollar index and CBOE volatility index is given, including their daily, monthly, and annual percentage changes [7]

| | | 本期 前值 涨跌 河北 1720 1710 10 河南 1680 1670 10 山东 1710 1690 20 山西 1560 1540 20 江苏 1700 1680 20 安徽 1690 1670 20 黑龙江 1760 1760 0 内蒙古 1770 1770 0 河北东光 1700 1690 10 山东华鲁 1680 1670 10 江苏灵谷 1710 1710 0 安徽昊源 1650 1640 10 山东05基差 27 19 8 山东01基差 19 13 6 河北05基差 37 29 8 河北01基差 29 23 6 1-5价差 43 52 -9 5-9价差 -8 -6 -2 仓单数量（张） 仓单数量合计 11177 11202 -25 中东FOB 367 367 0 美湾FOB 353 353 0 埃及FOB 437.5 437.5 0 波罗的海FOB 352.5 352.5 0 巴西CFR 397.5 397.5 0 注:数据来源于Wind，钢联数据，冠通研究整理 冠通期货 研究咨询部 王静 执业资格证书编号：F0235424/Z0000771 联系方式：010-85356618 ...

注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 18 日 商品表现 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 期市综述 截止 12 月 18 日收盘，国内期货主力合约涨跌不一。钯封涨停板， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PP market is expected to move in a volatile manner, with limited upside potential in the near term due to an unchanged supply - demand pattern. The L - PP spread is expected to decline as there may be new PP capacity coming on - stream this year and the peak season for agricultural films is gradually ending [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - As of the week ending December 12, the downstream PP operating rate rose 0.06 percentage points to 53.99% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. However, the operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of PP drawstring, dropped 0.04 percentage points to 44.06% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - On December 18, new maintenance units such as Yulong Petrochemical's fifth line were added, causing the PP enterprise operating rate to fall to around 83%, a relatively low - to - neutral level, while the production ratio of standard drawstring rose to around 28% [1][4] - Recently, the de - stocking of petrochemicals has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years [1][4] - On the cost side, some previously malfunctioning oil fields in Iraq have resumed production. The US is still actively promoting peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, and Ukraine has made certain compromises on security guarantees. The crack spread of refined oil products in Europe and the US has been continuously falling, leading to a decline in crude oil prices [1] - In terms of supply, Sinopec Guangxi Petrochemical with a new production capacity of 400,000 tons per year was put into operation in mid - October. Recently, the number of maintenance units has increased slightly. The downstream is at the end of the peak season, orders for plastic weaving continue to decline, the price of BOPP film has stabilized after a drop, and the market lacks large - scale centralized procurement, which has limited impact on boosting the market. Traders generally offer discounts to stimulate sales [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions 3.2.1 Futures - The PP2605 contract increased its positions and moved in a volatile manner, with a minimum price of 6,263 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,312 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,279 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.45%. The open interest increased by 4,001 lots to 523,495 lots [2] 3.2.2 Spot - The spot prices of PP in most regions remained stable. The drawstring was quoted at 5,980 - 6,280 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, on December 18, new maintenance units such as Yulong Petrochemical's fifth line were added, causing the PP enterprise operating rate to fall to around 83%, a relatively low - to - neutral level, while the production ratio of standard drawstring rose to around 28% [4] - On the demand side, as of the week ending December 12, the downstream PP operating rate rose 0.06 percentage points to 53.99% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. However, the operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of PP drawstring, dropped 0.04 percentage points to 44.06% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [4] - On Thursday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 30,000 tons to 670,000 tons week - on - week, 60,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Recently, the de - stocking of petrochemicals has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years [4] 3.4 Raw Material End - The Brent crude oil 03 contract fell below $60 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $745 per ton week - on - week [6]

【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡上行 发布日期：2025年12月18日 基差方面： 12月18日，华东地区电石法PVC主流价上涨至4430元/吨，V2605合约期货收盘价在4708元/ 吨，目前基差在-278元/吨，走弱8元/吨，基差处于偏低水平。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格下调50元/吨。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比减少0.46个百分点至79.43%， PVC开工率继续小幅减少，仍处于近年同期偏高水平。PVC下游开工率略有下降，下游制品订单不佳。 出口方面，PVC以价换量，上周出口签单有所回升，但印度市场价格也在下跌，印度需求有限。上周 社会库存略有增加，目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-11月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投 资、新开工、施工、竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、新开工、竣工等同比增速进一步下降。 30大中城市商品房周度成交面积环比回升，但仍处于近年同期最低水平，房地产改善仍需时间。新 增产能上，30万吨/年的甘肃耀望和30万吨/年的嘉兴嘉化新近投产。反内卷情绪下，焦煤等大宗商 品 ...