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PVC周报:冠通期货研究报告-20251222
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-12-22 10:16
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core View of the Report - PVC is expected to fluctuate weakly in the near term due to factors such as decreased supply - side开工率, poor downstream demand, high inventory, and the real - estate market still in adjustment [3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region is stable. The PVC开工率 decreased by 1.07 percentage points to 78.36% week - on - week, continuing to decline and remaining at a moderately high level compared to recent years. The downstream开工率 of PVC decreased by 3.5 percentage points week - on - week, and downstream product orders are poor [3][18]. - In terms of exports, PVC increased export orders slightly last week by sacrificing price, but the price in the Indian market is low and demand is limited. Attention should be paid to the January quotation of Formosa Plastics in Taiwan [3]. - Social inventory decreased slightly last week but remains high, with significant inventory pressure. December is the traditional off - season for domestic PVC demand. After the increase in spot prices, market transactions are light [3][25]. - From January to November 2025, the real - estate market is still in the adjustment stage. Investment, new construction, construction, and completion areas have large year - on - year declines, and the year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, new construction, and completion have further decreased. The weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased week - on - week but is still at the lowest level in recent years, and the real - estate market needs time to improve [3][24]. - New production capacities of 300,000 tons/year from Gansu Yaowang and 300,000 tons/year from Jiaxing Jiahua have recently been put into operation. Due to anti - involution sentiment, the rebound of bulk commodities such as coking coal boosts market sentiment, the comprehensive gross profit of chlor - alkali decreases, and the expected开工率 of some production enterprises declines, but the current production decline is limited, and futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level [3]. PVC Basis - The current 05 basis is - 215 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [12]. Real - Estate Data - From January to November 2025, national real - estate development investment was 785.91 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. The sales area of commercial housing was 787.02 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.8%, with residential sales area down 8.1%. The sales volume of commercial housing was 751.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.1%, with residential sales volume down 11.2% [24]. - From January to November 2025, the new construction area of houses was 534.57 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.5%, with residential new construction area down 19.9%. The construction area of real - estate development enterprises was 6.56066 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.6%. The completion area of houses was 394.54 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.0%, with residential completion area down 20.1% [24]. - As of the week of December 21, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 20.86% week - on - week but is still at the lowest level in recent years. Attention should be paid to whether real - estate favorable policies can boost commercial housing sales [24]. PVC Inventory - As of the week of December 18, PVC social inventory decreased by 0.25% week - on - week to 1.0566 million tons, 28.58% higher than the same period last year. Although social inventory decreased slightly, it remains high [25].
冠通期货早盘速递-20251222
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-12-22 02:53
Report Date - The report is dated December 22, 2025 [1] News Highlights - Li Qiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council to arrange the implementation of decisions from the Central Economic Work Conference, emphasizing the need to speed up the formulation of implementation plans and strengthen cross - departmental cooperation [2] - Maersk completed a ship's passage through the Mandeb Strait and into the Red Sea on the 19th, the first in nearly two years, and is considering gradually resuming east - west routes via the Suez Canal and the Red Sea [2] - China's Cyberspace Administration and the China Securities Regulatory Commission are cracking down on online false information related to the capital market and have dealt with accounts spreading rumors and illegally recommending stocks [2] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange will adjust the premium and discount of designated delivery warehouses for coking coal futures in Tangshan, Hebei and Tianjin from 170 yuan/ton to 140 yuan/ton, effective from the JM2701 contract [2] - Indonesia started road - testing B50 biodiesel (50% palm oil) two weeks ago, with the test expected to last about six months, and the mandatory use policy likely to be implemented in the second half of 2026 [3] Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on are p - xylene, PTA, Shanghai gold, asphalt, and PP [4] Night - session Performance Plate Performance - Non - metallic building materials rose 2.40%, precious metals 32.69%, oilseeds and fats 8.62%, soft commodities 3.31%, non - ferrous metals 24.35%, coal, coke, steel and minerals 10.75%, energy 2.55%, chemicals 10.40%, grains 1.32%, and agricultural and sideline products 3.62% [4] Asset Performance Equity - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.36% daily, 0.05% monthly, and 16.07% annually; the S&P 500 rose 0.88% daily, - 0.21% monthly, and 16.20% annually; the Hang Seng Index rose 0.75% daily, - 0.65% monthly, and 28.07% annually, etc. [7] Fixed - income - The 10 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.10% daily, 0.19% monthly, and - 0.71% annually; the 5 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.09% daily, 0.21% monthly, and - 0.54% annually; the 2 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.04% daily, 0.11% monthly, and - 0.47% annually [7] Commodity - The CRB Commodity Index rose 0.64% daily, - 2.12% monthly, and - 0.55% annually; WTI crude oil rose 0.98% daily, - 3.17% monthly, and - 21.37% annually; London spot gold rose 0.23% daily, 2.90% monthly, and 65.43% annually, etc. [7] Other - The US dollar index rose 0.28% daily, - 0.73% monthly, and - 9.01% annually; the CBOE Volatility Index fell - 11.62% daily, - 8.81% monthly, and - 14.06% annually [7]
冠通期货资讯早间报-20251222
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-12-22 02:45
Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively presents the overnight market trends of various commodities, important macro - economic and industry - specific news, and the performance of financial markets both at home and abroad, offering a multi - dimensional perspective for investors to understand the current market situation. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Night - Market Market Trends - International precious metal futures generally rose. COMEX gold futures rose 0.1% to $4368.7 per ounce, with a weekly increase of 0.93%, and COMEX silver futures rose 3.34% to $67.395 per ounce, hitting a record high with a weekly increase of 8.69% [5]. - U.S. oil and Brent crude oil futures rose. The U.S. oil main contract rose 0.96% to $56.54 per barrel, with a weekly decline of 1.57%, and the Brent crude oil main contract rose 1.01% to $60.1 per barrel, with a weekly decline of 1.67% [6]. - London base metals all rose. LME nickel rose 1.85% to $14900 per ton, with a weekly increase of 2.15%; LME aluminum rose 1.32% to $2955.5 per ton, with a weekly increase of 3.03%; LME lead rose 1.25% to $1984.5 per ton, with a weekly increase of 0.84%; LME copper rose 1.22% to $11870.5 per ton, with a weekly increase of 3.09%; LME zinc rose 0.65% to $3078 per ton, with a weekly decline of 1.50%; LME tin rose 0.13% to $42975 per ton, with a weekly increase of 3.96% [6]. Important Information Macroeconomic Information - China sued India's information and communication product tariff measures and photovoltaic subsidy measures at the WTO, stating that India's measures violated WTO rules and damaged China's interests [9]. - Maersk considered gradually resuming east - west route voyages through the Suez Canal and the Red Sea [9]. - Shanghai export container freight index and China export container freight composite index rose [9]. - China's Internet and securities regulators cracked down on false information in the capital market [10]. - The State Council emphasized implementing the decisions of the Central Economic Work Conference [10]. - Israel was concerned about Iran's expansion of its ballistic missile production plan [11]. - China's Ministry of Commerce planned to boost consumption in 2026 [11]. - A Fed official thought there was no need to adjust interest rates in the next few months [11]. Energy and Chemical Futures - China continued anti - dumping duties on imported EPDM rubber from the U.S., South Korea, and the EU, and the anti - dumping measures on imported EPDM rubber from the UK expired [13]. - The rubber inventory in Osaka Exchange - designated warehouses decreased [13]. - The U.S. intercepted an oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela [15]. Metal Futures - Ningde Times' Yichun Jianxiawo lithium mine made progress in resuming production, and an environmental assessment was in progress [17]. - Tianqi Lithium's third - phase chemical - grade lithium concentrate expansion project was completed and put into trial operation [17]. - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange restricted the daily opening positions of non - futures company members or clients in lithium carbonate futures contracts [18]. Black - Series Futures - The Dalian Commodity Exchange adjusted the premium and discount of the designated delivery warehouses for coking coal futures in Tangshan and Tianjin [20]. - Manganese - silicon enterprises' inventory increased, while silicon - iron enterprises' inventory decreased [22]. - The blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills decreased [23]. - The inventory of imported iron ore at ports increased, and the daily clearance volume decreased [23]. - Tangshan lifted the heavy - pollution weather emergency response [23]. - The total inventory of steel in cities decreased [24]. Agricultural Product Futures - The average purchase price of pigs by designated slaughtering enterprises increased slightly, while the average ex - factory price of白条 meat remained flat [27]. - Indonesia started the road test of B50 biodiesel, with a mandatory use policy likely to be implemented in the second half of 2026 [27]. - The auction of imported soybeans had a certain transaction volume and proportion [27]. - Argentina's soybean planting area decreased slightly [28]. - The losses of pig farming decreased [28]. - The U.S. exported soybeans to China [29]. Financial Markets Financial - The A - share market was in a high - level shock, and the spring market was expected [32]. - The net inflow of funds into the CSI A500 index exceeded 460 billion yuan [32]. - Stock - type funds became the focus of the public fund issuance market [32]. - Institutions actively investigated listed companies, with a focus on the hard - tech track [33]. - MiniMax was expected to become the AI company with the shortest time from establishment to IPO [34]. - Guizhou Bailing was fined for financial fraud [34]. Other Industries - Some Chinese cities' real estate markets showed positive trends [36]. - China's pension industry was expected to grow significantly [36]. - China's aviation freight volume increased [36]. - China's trust industry assets exceeded 30 trillion yuan [37]. - Bohai Oilfield's annual production of oil and gas equivalent exceeded 4000 tons [38]. - China's animation movie box office reached a record high in 2025 [38]. - Shanxi abolished the fireworks ban [40]. Overseas - U.S. officials believed there was room for interest - rate cuts, and a housing plan was expected [41]. - A Fed official thought interest rates should be stable before spring [41]. - Over 70% of Japanese respondents thought the price situation had worsened [41]. - Brazil advocated accelerating other trade negotiations for Mercosur [41]. International Stock Markets - Japan was experiencing a merger and acquisition boom [42]. - Indian stock market regulators promoted the participation of banks and insurance companies in the commodity derivatives market [44]. - The scale of India's mutual funds expanded, and a stock's price soared [44]. - SK Telecom was required to compensate users for information leakage [44]. Commodities - The Philippines extended the sugar import ban until December 2026 [45]. Bonds - The volatility of U.S. Treasury bonds reached a four - year low, and foreign central banks' holdings decreased slightly [46]. Foreign Exchange - It was believed that factors promoting the appreciation of the RMB were increasing [47]. - South Korea was ready to take preemptive measures to stabilize the financial market [49].
尿素日度数据图表-20251219
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-12-19 13:16
尿素日度数据图表 研究咨询部 | 2025/12/19 | 一周走势 | 本期 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 指标 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 河北 | 1730 | 1720 | 10 | 河南 | 1690 | 1680 | 10 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 山东 | 1710 | 1710 | 0 | 主流地区市场价 | 山西 | 1560 | 1560 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | (元/吨) | 江苏 | 1700 | 1700 | 0 | 安徽 | 1700 | 1690 | 10 | | | | | | | | | | | | 黑龙江 | 1760 | 1760 | 0 | 内蒙古 | 1770 | 1770 | 0 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 河北东光 | 1720 ...
PVC日报:震荡下行-20251219
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-12-19 11:47
【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报:震荡下行 发布日期:2025年12月19日 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格稳定。目前供应端,PVC开工率环比减少1.07个百分点至78.36%,PVC开工 率继续减少,处于近年同期中性偏高水平。冬季到来,PVC下游开工率环比下降3.5个百分点,下游 制品订单不佳。出口方面,PVC以价换量,上周出口签单有所回升,但印度市场价格也在下跌,印度 需求有限,关注台湾台塑1月份报价。本周社会库存略有减少,但目前仍偏高,库存压力仍然较大。 2025年1-11月份,房地产仍在调整阶段,投资、新开工、施工、竣工面积同比降幅仍较大,投资、 销售、新开工、竣工等同比增速进一步下降。30大中城市商品房周度成交面积环比回升,但仍处于 近年同期最低水平,房地产改善仍需时间。新增产能上,30万吨/年的甘肃耀望和30万吨/年的嘉兴 嘉化新近投产。反内卷情绪下,焦煤等大宗商品反弹提振市场情绪,氯碱综合毛利下降,部分生产 企业开工预期下降,但目前产量下降有限,期货仓单仍处高位,印度市场价格也在下跌,印度需求 有限。12月是国内PVC传统需求淡季,社会库存基本稳定,现货价格上涨后,市场成交偏淡,近期 PVC ...
塑料日报:震荡下行-20251219
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-12-19 11:46
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply - demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged, with a weak trading atmosphere. It is expected that plastics will fluctuate weakly in the near term, and the L - PP spread is expected to decline due to the possible addition of new production capacity and the gradual exit from the peak season of agricultural films [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 19th, the restart of maintenance devices such as Qilu Petrochemical's LDPE led to an increase in the plastics operating rate to about 86%, which is at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.55 percentage points to 42.45% week - on - week as of the week of December 19th. Agricultural film orders continued to decline, and the overall PE downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. Petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years, and the cost of crude oil has decreased. New production capacity has been put into operation, and it is expected that the downstream operating rate will decline [1]. - The plastics 2605 contract decreased in price with increased positions. The lowest price was 6314 yuan/ton, the highest was 6470 yuan/ton, and it closed at 6320 yuan/ton, with a decline of 2.90%. The position increased by 36438 lots to 598214 lots [2]. - The PE spot market mostly declined, with a price range between - 80 and + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6250 - 6570 yuan/ton, LDPE at 7950 - 8580 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6600 - 7940 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, on December 19th, the restart of maintenance devices such as Qilu Petrochemical's LDPE led to an increase in the plastics operating rate to about 86%, at a neutral level [4]. - In terms of demand, as of the week of December 19th, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.55 percentage points to 42.45% week - on - week. Agricultural film orders continued to decline and were at a neutral level in the same period in recent years, and the overall PE downstream operating rate was at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [4]. - Petrochemical inventory on Friday decreased by 10,000 tons week - on - week to 660,000 tons, which is 75,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Currently, petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [4]. - For the raw material, crude oil, the Brent crude oil 03 contract fell below $60/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $725/ton week - on - week, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $745/ton week - on - week [4].
沥青日报:震荡下行-20251219
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-12-19 11:45
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The asphalt supply is low, with the weekly asphalt operating rate at 27.6%, a 0.2 - percentage - point drop from the previous week and 0.9 percentage points lower than the same period last year. December's domestic asphalt production is expected to be 215.8 million tons, a 3.1% decrease from the previous month and a 13.8% decrease year - on - year. Demand is weakening, with most downstream industries' operating rates falling. The national asphalt shipment volume decreased by 3.52% to 244,500 tons. The asphalt refinery inventory - to - stock ratio is near the lowest level in recent years. Crude oil prices are weakly volatile. Market concerns about Venezuelan heavy crude exports have eased. With some Shandong refineries planning to switch to producing residue and road construction in the north ending, demand will further slow down. The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate [1][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Analysis - Supply: The weekly asphalt operating rate dropped 0.2 percentage points to 27.6%, hitting the lowest level in recent years. December's domestic asphalt production is expected to be 215.8 million tons, down 70,000 tons from the previous month and 344,000 tons year - on - year. Some refineries in East China had intermittent shutdowns, and some in Shandong plan to switch to residue production next week [1][5] - Demand: Most downstream industries' operating rates declined, with the road asphalt operating rate dropping 3 percentage points to 24% due to funding and weather. Road construction in the north is ending, and demand in the south is average. Southern refineries cut prices, and low - price products sold well [1][5] - Inventory: The asphalt refinery inventory - to - stock ratio dropped 0.2 percentage points to 13.2% this week, remaining near the lowest level in recent years [5] - Crude oil: Iraqi oilfields resumed production, and the US is promoting peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. However, the US imposed new sanctions on Venezuela, causing concerns about Venezuelan heavy crude exports. These concerns eased after Trump did not declare war on Venezuela in a speech [1] - Price: The asphalt futures 2602 contract fell 1.95% to 2909 yuan/ton, with the lowest price at 2895 yuan/ton and the highest at 2945 yuan/ton. The trading volume decreased by 6744 to 217,948 lots. The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 2910 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 02 contract rose to 1 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [2][3] 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The asphalt futures 2602 contract fell 1.95% to 2909 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average. The trading volume decreased by 6744 to 217,948 lots [2] - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 2910 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 02 contract rose to 1 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3] 3.3. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: The asphalt operating rate dropped 0.2 percentage points to 27.6%, the lowest in recent years. From January to October, national highway construction investment decreased by 6% year - on - year. From January to November, road transport fixed - asset investment decreased by 4.7% year - on - year, and infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year [5] - Demand: As of December 19, most downstream industries' operating rates declined, with the road asphalt operating rate dropping 3 percentage points to 24% due to funding and weather [5] - Inventory: As of December 19, the asphalt refinery inventory - to - stock ratio dropped 0.2 percentage points to 13.2%, near the lowest level in recent years [5]
PP日报:震荡下行-20251219
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-12-19 11:37
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply - demand pattern of PP remains unchanged, with downstream order cycles shortening and PP's rebound being blocked. It is expected that PP will show a weak and volatile trend. Due to the possibility of new PP production capacity coming on - stream this year and the gradual end of the agricultural film peak season, the L - PP spread is expected to decline [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - As of the week of December 19, the downstream PP operating rate decreased by 0.19 percentage points to 53.80% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. Among them, the operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, decreased by 0.06 percentage points to 44.00% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - On December 19, there were little changes in maintenance devices. The PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 83%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring dropped to around 27% [1][4] - Recently, the destocking of petrochemicals has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [1][4] - On the cost side, some previously faulty oil fields in Iraq have resumed production. The US is still striving to promote peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, and Ukraine has made certain compromises on security guarantees. The cracking spread of refined oil products in Europe and the US has been continuously falling, and the crude oil price has declined [1] - In terms of supply, the new 400,000 - ton/year capacity of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October. Recently, the number of maintenance devices has increased slightly. The downstream is at the end of the peak season, orders for plastic weaving continue to decline, the price of BOPP film has stabilized after a decline, the market lacks large - scale centralized procurement, which has limited support for the market, and traders generally offer discounts to stimulate transactions [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The PP2605 contract increased positions and oscillated downward, with a minimum price of 6,200 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,273 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,213 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 1.24%. The position increased by 10,464 lots to 533,959 lots [2] Spot - The spot prices of PP in various regions mostly declined. The drawstring was reported at 5,960 - 6,280 yuan/ton [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, on December 19, there were little changes in maintenance devices. The PP enterprise operating rate remained at around 83%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring dropped to around 27% [4] - On the demand side, as of the week of December 19, the downstream PP operating rate decreased by 0.19 percentage points to 53.80% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. Among them, the operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring, decreased by 0.06 percentage points to 44.00% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [4] - The early petrochemical inventory on Friday decreased by 10,000 tons to 660,000 tons week - on - week, 75,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Recently, the destocking of petrochemicals has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [4] - For the raw material crude oil, the Brent crude oil 03 contract fell below $60/barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China decreased by $5/ton to $740/ton week - on - week [4]
每日核心期货品种分析-20251219
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-12-19 11:13
地址:北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层(100020) 总机:010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息,来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格,请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师:王静,执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达,执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 期市综述 发布日期:2025 年 12 月 19 日 商品表现 截止 12 月 19 日收盘,国内期货主力合约涨跌不一。碳酸锂、PX、PTA、集运欧 线、沪镍涨超 3%,不锈钢(SS)、短纤、沪锡涨超 2%;跌幅方面,塑料、氧化 铝、菜油、玻璃跌超 2%,沥青、燃料油跌超 1%。沪深 300 股指期货(IF)主力 投资有风险,入市需谨慎。 免责声明: 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料,我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考,并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送,版 ...
原油日报:原油低开后震荡运行-20251219
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-12-19 11:09
欧佩克+最新会议同意2026年维持该组织整体石油产量不变。8个额外自愿减产的产油国重申明 年一季度暂停增产。原油需求旺季结束,EIA数据显示,美国原油库存去库幅度略预期,但成品油库 存增幅超预期,整体油品库存增加。美国原油产量小幅减少,但仍位于历史最高位附近。特朗普政 府极力促成俄乌停火,仍在施压乌克兰。目前泽连斯基表态,接受双边安全保障而非直接"入约", 作出了一定妥协,欧洲多国及欧盟机构领导人发表联合声明称,将组建一支"多国部队"支持乌克 兰。特朗普称现在比以往任何时候都更接近达成"和平协议"。俄罗斯原油受制裁而得到的风险溢 价继续回落,欧美成品油裂解基差高位持续回落。美国与委内瑞拉军事对峙继续升级,美国在委内 瑞拉海岸扣押油轮,美国财政部宣布对委内瑞拉实施新的制裁措施,特朗普下令对进出委内瑞拉的 受制裁油轮实施全面封锁。委内瑞拉主要石油储存设施及码头停泊的油轮正在迅速装满原油,预计 在数日后达到最大储存上限。地缘局势引发委内瑞拉出口中断担忧。欧美成品油裂解价差持续回落, 美联储12月议息会议尘埃落定,市场仍担忧原油需求,美国石油钻井平台数量回升,OPEC+持续增产, 中东地区出口增加,全球原油浮库持续增 ...