2025 年 12 月 25 日 豆粕：隔夜美豆收涨，连粕或反弹震荡 豆一：国储收储价上调，影响偏多 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | 收盘价 | （日盘） 涨 跌 | 收盘价 | （夜盘） 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2605（元/吨） | 4106 +2 | （+0.05%） 4113 | +7（+0.17%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2605（元/吨） | 2728 | -14（-0.51%） 2725 | -14（-0.51%） | | | CBOT大豆03（美分/蒲） | 1075.75 | +12.75（+1.20%） | | | | CBOT豆粕03（美元/短吨） | 308 | +4.0（+1.32%） | n a | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | 3040～3110， | 较昨-10至持平； 持平； M2605+380， | 现货基差M2605+360， 3月M2605+340/+350/+360/+3 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 25 日 铜：外强内弱，限制价格上涨 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铜基本面数据 | 昨日收盘价 | | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铜主力合约 | 96,100 伦铜3M电子盘 12,133 | 2.31% 0.65% | 95020 - | -1.12% - | | 较前日变动 | 昨日成交 | | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜指数 558,648 | 297,908 | 658,927 | 23,257 | | 伦铜3M电子盘 18,195 | | -8,111 | 340,000 | 2,248 | | 昨日期货库存 | | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | 沪铜 52,222 | | 2,679 | - | - | | 伦铜 157,025 | | -1,550 | 29.63% | -1.19% | | LME铜升贴水 | | 昨日价差 13.16 | 前日价差 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For platinum, the external market is closed, and there is a need to be vigilant about a potential correction [1]. - For palladium, the investment sentiment has shifted, and it is expected to decline significantly [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price Data** - Platinum futures 2606 closed at 657.65 with a 6.08% increase; the gold exchange platinum closed at 606.99 with an 8.08% increase; the New York platinum main - continuous contract closed at 2272.90 with a - 2.03% change; the London spot platinum closed at 2253.00 with a - 1.40% change [2]. - Palladium futures 2606 closed at 578.45 with an 8.62% increase; the RMB spot palladium closed at 459.00 with a 5.03% increase; the New York palladium main - continuous contract closed at 1821.00 with a - 7.28% change; the London spot palladium closed at 1723.50 with a - 7.24% change [2]. - **Trading Volume and Position Data** - For platinum, Guangzhou platinum trading volume was 26,564 kg (a decrease of 128,849 from the previous day), and the position was 48,014 kg (an increase of 3,582); NYMEX platinum trading volume was 64,622 kg (a decrease of 42,733), and the position was 101,066 kg (an increase of 59,339) [2]. - For palladium, Guangzhou palladium trading volume was 102,858 kg (a decrease of 79,236), and the position was 25,929 kg (an increase of 3,124); NYMEX palladium trading volume was 47,990 kg (an increase of 7,241), and the position was 67,992 kg (an increase of 579) [2]. - **ETF Position and Inventory Data** - Platinum ETF position (in ounces, previous day) was 3,275,143, an increase of 5,271; palladium ETF position (in ounces, previous day) was 1,138,567, a decrease of 384 [2]. - NYMEX platinum inventory (in ounces, previous day) was 644,038, an increase of 19,305; NYMEX palladium inventory (in ounces, previous day) was 195,834, an increase of 264 [2]. - **Spread Data** - For platinum, the spread between PT9995 and PT2606 was - 50.66 (a change of 7.68 from the previous day); the spread between Guangzhou platinum 2606 and 2610 contracts was - 35.45 (a change of - 33.05); the cost of buying Guangzhou platinum 2606 and selling 2610 for inter - period arbitrage was 8.11 (a change of 0.49); the spread between the gold exchange platinum and London platinum was 97.89 (a change of 53.36) [2]. - For palladium, the spread between the RMB spot palladium price and PD2606 was - 119.45 (a change of - 23.90); the spread between Guangzhou palladium 2606 and 2610 contracts was - 4.20 (a change of - 1.55); the cost of buying Guangzhou palladium 2606 and selling 2610 for inter - period arbitrage was 7.13 (a change of 0.55); the spread between the RMB spot palladium and London palladium was 70 (a change of 53) [2]. - **Exchange Rate Data** - The US dollar index was 97.95, a 0.05% increase; the US dollar against the on - shore RMB (CNY spot) was 7.03, a - 0.14% change; the US dollar against the off - shore RMB (CNH spot) was 7.02, a - 0.18% change; the US dollar against the RMB (6M forward) was 6.95, a - 0.08% change [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - US officials hinted that they currently prefer sanctions to military action to achieve their goals in Venezuela [5]. - Zelensky announced a 20 - point draft of the Russia - Ukraine "peace plan", but the territorial issue remains unresolved. Russia believes that the latest US peace plan proposal lacks key terms and hopes to make revisions [5]. - Japan plans to cut the issuance of ultra - long - term government bonds in fiscal year 2026 to about 17 trillion yen, the lowest level in 17 years [5]. - The Cambodian Ministry of Defense said that Thai fighter jets dropped cluster bombs, and the Thai military said they targeted only military objectives [5]. - The Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China held its fourth - quarter regular meeting, stating that it will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and increase counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment [5]. - The People's Bank of China conducted 400 billion yuan of MLF operations on December 25 [5]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The platinum trend intensity is - 1; the palladium trend intensity is - 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - For nickel, there is capital game in the market, and caution is needed when chasing high prices [1]. - For stainless steel, the fundamentals show both weak supply and demand, and are disturbed by news about Indonesian nickel mines [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel main contract is 128,000, and the closing price of stainless - steel main contract is 13,075. The trading volume of Shanghai Nickel main contract is 1,095,331, and that of stainless - steel main contract is 365,097 [2]. - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel is 127,200, the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 893, and the price of 304/2B roll - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan is 13,050 [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Indonesian Nickel Mine News**: Due to violation of forestry license regulations, the Indonesian forestry working group took over more than 148 hectares of the PT Weda Bay Nickel mining area, which is expected to affect nickel ore production by about 600 metal tons per month. The Indonesian energy and mineral resources department imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies. The government plans to revise the benchmark price formula of nickel ore products in early 2026 and may lower the 2026 nickel ore production target from 3.79 billion tons to 2.5 billion tons [2][3][4][5][6]. - **International Trade News**: China suspended an unofficial subsidy for copper and nickel imported from Russia. The US President Trump may impose an additional 100% tariff on China from November 1st and implement export controls on "all key software". China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs will implement export license management for some steel products from January 1st, 2026 [3][4][5]. - **Monetary Policy News**: New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Stephen Miran made dovish remarks, increasing the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in December [5]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is +1, and that of stainless steel is +1, indicating a moderately positive outlook for both [6].

2025 年 12 月 25 日 短纤：短期跟涨原料，加工费压缩 20251225 瓶片：短期跟涨原料 20251225 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 qianjiayin@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2601 | 6442 | 6418 | 24 | PF01-02 | -42 | -34 | -8 | | PF | 短纤2602 | 6484 | 6452 | 32 | PF02-03 | 0 | 40 | -40 | | | 短纤2603 | 6484 | 6412 | 72 | PF主力基差 | -34 | -42 | 8 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 324987 | 251259 | 73728 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6. 450 | 6.410 | 40 | | | 短纤主力成交量 | 219053 昨日 | 205905 前日 | 13148 变化 | 短纤产销率 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the high - level volatility of lithium carbonate, suggesting to pay attention to the resumption of production progress and the cooling of market sentiment. The trend strength of lithium carbonate is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For the 2601 contract, the closing price is 122,760 yuan, the trading volume is 30,388 lots, and the open interest is 38,001 lots. For the 2605 contract, the closing price is 124,720 yuan, the trading volume is 949,006 lots, and the open interest is 647,366 lots. The warehouse receipt volume is 17,101 lots [1]. - **Basis Data**: The basis between spot and 2601 contract is - 21,260 yuan, between spot and 2605 contract is - 23,220 yuan, between 2601 and 2605 contracts is - 1,960 yuan. The difference between electric - carbon and industrial - carbon is 2,650 yuan, and the difference between spot and CIF is 17,212 yuan [1]. - **Raw Material Data**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) is 1,434 yuan, and the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) is 3,210 yuan [1]. - **Lithium Salt Data**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 101,500 yuan, industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 98,850 yuan, battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micronized powder) is 95,400 yuan, etc [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Price Information**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price is 101,284 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1,709 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 101,500 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 98,850 yuan/ton, both increasing by 2,000 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day [2]. - **Exchange Policy**: From December 26, 2025, the minimum opening order quantity for lithium carbonate futures contracts LC2601 - LC2612 will be adjusted from 1 lot to 5 lots, and the minimum closing order quantity will remain 1 lot. Non - futures company members or clients have daily opening limits for different contracts [3]. - **Production News**: The lithium mining project of Yichun Times New Energy Mining Co., Ltd. is expected to resume production around the Spring Festival [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Gold: Inflation is moderately declining [2][4]. - Silver: Undergoing high - level adjustment [2][4]. - Copper: The external market is strong while the domestic market is weak, which restricts price increases [2][8]. - Zinc: Trading in a range [2][11]. - Lead: Reduced inventory supports the price [2][14]. - Tin: Supply is facing new disruptions [2][17]. - Aluminum: Trading in a range; Alumina is bottom - sideways; Cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [2][20]. - Platinum: The overseas market is closed, and a correction is to be watched out for [2][22]. - Palladium: Investment sentiment has shifted, and a large - scale decline is expected [2][23]. - Nickel: There is capital game on the market, and caution is needed when chasing high prices [2][27]. - Stainless steel: Both supply and demand in the fundamentals are weak, and there are disturbances from news about Indonesian nickel mines [2][28]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2602, Gold T + D, and Comex Gold 2602 showed varying degrees of increase, with daily increases of 1.34%, 1.44%, and 0.77% respectively. The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2602 decreased by 2,375, while that of Comex Gold 2602 increased by 42,965 [4]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai gold inventory increased by 1,995 kilograms, and Comex gold inventory (in troy ounces, the day before) increased by 114,168 [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy; the Beijing property market has new policies; the US employment market has warmed up [4]. Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2602, Silver T + D, and Comex Silver 2602 all rose, with daily increases of 1.50%, 1.52%, and 3.65% respectively. The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2602 decreased by 474,555 [4]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai silver inventory decreased by 1,805 kilograms, and Comex silver inventory (in troy ounces, the day before) decreased by 3,083,409 [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to gold, and the Silver LOF hit the daily limit again during the session [4][7]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract increased by 2.31%, and the LME Copper 3M electronic disk increased by 0.65%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index increased by 297,908, and the LME Copper 3M electronic disk decreased by 8,111 [8]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai copper inventory increased by 2,679 tons, and LME copper inventory decreased by 1,550 tons [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The People's Bank of China's policy, Beijing's property market policy, and the US employment market situation; Glencore acquired a copper project in Peru; Peru extended the temporary licenses of small - scale miners; Kazakhstan's refined copper production increased; China's copper ore imports increased [8][10]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract increased by 0.61%, and the LME Zinc 3M electronic disk increased by 0.60%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract increased by 37,673, and the LME Zinc trading volume increased by 2,888 [11]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai zinc inventory increased by 1,068 tons, and LME zinc inventory increased by 7,900 tons [11]. - **News**: The People's Bank of China's policy and hints from the US Treasury Secretary about the Fed's future direction [12]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract increased by 1.35%, and the LME Lead 3M electronic disk increased by 0.66%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Lead main contract increased by 23,412, and the LME Lead trading volume increased by 2,053 [14]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai lead inventory decreased by 152 tons, and LME lead inventory decreased by 4,200 tons [14]. - **News**: Similar to copper, including the People's Bank of China's policy, Beijing's property market policy, and the US employment market situation [15]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract increased by 1.27%, and the LME Tin 3M electronic disk increased by 0.25%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract decreased by 11,222, and the LME Tin 3M electronic disk decreased by 9 [17]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai tin inventory increased by 655 tons, and LME tin inventory increased by 50 tons [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Similar to gold and silver, and France passed a short - term budget to avoid a government shutdown [17][18]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 22,330 yuan/ton, and the LME Aluminum 3M closing price was 2,957 US dollars/ton. The trading volume of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract increased by 85,119. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2,554 yuan/ton [20]. - **Inventory and Cost**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory decreased, and the LME aluminum ingot inventory increased. The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit was 5,823.24 yuan/ton [20]. - **News**: The US dollar may have its worst year since 2003, and the Japanese finance minister hinted at possible intervention in the yen [21]. Platinum and Palladium - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing prices of platinum and palladium futures showed different trends, with some rising and some falling. The trading volume of Shanghai Platinum and NYMEX Platinum decreased, while the trading volume of NYMEX Palladium increased [23]. - **Inventory and ETF**: The platinum ETF inventory increased by 5,271 ounces, and the palladium ETF inventory decreased by 384 ounces [23]. - **Macro and Industry News**: News about international relations and China's central bank's policy [25][26]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 128,000 yuan/ton, and the stainless - steel main contract was 13,075 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 1,095,331 [28]. - **Industry News**: An Indonesian nickel mining area was taken over, China suspended a non - official subsidy for Russian copper and nickel imports, and Indonesia implemented sanctions on mining companies and adjusted policies related to nickel mines [28][29][31].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The asphalt spot price remains stable, and the trend strength is neutral with a value of 0 [1][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Information**: The closing price of BU2602 yesterday was 2,996 yuan/ton, up 0.64%, and the night - session closing price was 3,001 yuan/ton, up 0.17%. The closing price of BU2603 yesterday was 3,006 yuan/ton, up 0.54%, and the night - session closing price was 3,006 yuan/ton, unchanged. The trading volume of BU2602 was 187,941 lots, a decrease of 54,265 lots, and the open interest was 190,035 lots, a decrease of 14,707 lots. The trading volume of BU2603 was 63,926 lots, a decrease of 8,291 lots, and the open interest was 148,146 lots, an increase of 2,627 lots. The total asphalt warehouse receipts in the market were 54,100 lots, unchanged [2] - **Spread Information**: The basis (Shandong - 02) was - 76 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton compared with the previous day; the 02 - 03 inter - period spread was - 10 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton; the Shandong - South China spread was - 40 yuan/ton, unchanged; the East China - South China spread was 130 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - **Spot Market Information**: The Shandong wholesale price was 2,920 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the factory - warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,077 yuan/ton, and the warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,222 yuan/ton. The Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,090 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the factory - warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,157 yuan/ton, and the warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,223 yuan/ton [2] - **Industry Data**: As of December 22, the refinery operating rate was 37.26%, a decrease of 0.62% compared with December 18; the refinery inventory rate was 27.46%, a decrease of 0.04% compared with December 18 [2] 3.2 Market News - **Geopolitical News**: According to Wall Street Journal, the US has dispatched a large number of special - operations aircraft and transport planes to the Caribbean this week, and Trump has increased pressure on Venezuelan President Maduro, ordering the blockade of oil tankers entering and leaving the country [12] - **Industry Data Changes**: From December 18 - 24, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 92 asphalt refineries in China was 33.1%, a month - on - month increase of 4.0%, and the capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 31.3%, a month - on - month increase of 3.7%. From December 17 - 23, 2025, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 40.4 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.4%. From December 17 - 23, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 69 domestic modified asphalt sample enterprises was 7.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6% and a year - on - year increase of 0.8% [12][13]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Report Core View - The report focuses on the pig industry, presenting fundamental data, market information, and trend strength, indicating that the speculative demand for pigs has been realized [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Prices**: Henan spot price is 11,780 yuan/ton, up 50 year - on - year; Sichuan spot price is 11,900 yuan/ton, up 100; Guangdong spot price is 11,960 yuan/ton, unchanged. Futures prices for pig 2601, 2603, and 2605 are 11,300 yuan/ton (up 55), 11,480 yuan/ton (up 65), and 11,985 yuan/ton (up 50) respectively [3] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Pig 2601 trading volume is 4,890 lots, down 792 from the previous day, with an open interest of 21,478 lots, down 1,773. Pig 2603 trading volume is 64,490 lots, up 8,060, with an open interest of 161,915 lots, up 62. Pig 2605 trading volume is 13,800 lots, up 4,573, with an open interest of 82,431 lots, up 420 [3] - **Price Spreads**: Pig 2601 basis is 480 yuan/ton, down 5 year - on - year; pig 2603 basis is 300 yuan/ton, down 15; pig 2605 basis is - 205 yuan/ton, unchanged. Pig 1 - 3 spread is - 180 yuan/ton, down 10; pig 3 - 5 spread is - 505 yuan/ton, up 15 [3] 3.2 Market Information - Multiple companies registered warehouse receipts in December 2025, including Yunnan Shennong (85 lots on Dec 4), Guizhou Fuyuan (23 lots on Dec 5), Dekang (225 lots on Dec 10, 150 lots on Dec 11), Yangxiang (40 lots on Dec 10), COFCO (300 lots on Dec 15), and Muyuan (40 lots on Dec 23) [4] - The Ministry of Commerce determined that imported related pork and by - products from the EU are being dumped [5] 3.3 Trend Strength - The trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral stance. The range of trend strength is from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [6]

2025 年 12 月 25 日 商 品 研 究 燃料油：暂时回到震荡行情，等待驱动出现 低硫燃料油：偏强震荡，外盘现货高低硫价差 小幅反弹 梁可方 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019111 liangkefang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 燃料油趋势强度：0；低硫燃料油趋势强度：0 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如下：弱、偏弱、中性、偏强、强，-2 表 示最看空，2 表示最看多。 究 所 燃料油基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日 涨 跌 | | 昨日结算价 | 结算价涨跌 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | FU2602 | 元/吨 | 2, 460 | -0. 57% | | 2.462 | -0. 49% | | | | EU2603 | 元/吨 | 2.480 | -0. 49% | | 2, 474 | -0. 32% | | | | LU2602 | 元/吨 | 3.005 | 0. 40% | | 3.000 | 0.13% | | | | FU260 ...