1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic sugar price is expected to continue rising due to the support of fundamentals, with potential upside. The international sugar price is also expected to remain strong due to a tight supply - demand pattern [58] - The operation suggestion is to adopt a short - term bullish approach [59] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Sugar Market Analysis 3.1.1 Futures Price Trends - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange (ZCE) sugar futures continued to rise this week, with a weekly increase of 1.49%. ICE sugar futures rebounded, with a weekly increase of 2.78% [9] 3.1.2 Spot Price and Basis Trends - In the 2024/25 sugar season, the cumulative sugar sales rate in February was 48.9%, 1.36 percentage points faster than the same period last year [15] 3.1.3 National Production and Sales Situation - Data not elaborated in the summary part 3.1.4 Sugar Import Situation - From January to February, imports were 80,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.11 million tons. Based on the ICE sugar May contract price of 19 cents per pound, the in - quota import cost from Brazil was 5,188 yuan per ton, and the out - of - quota import cost was 6,615 yuan per ton; the in - quota import cost from Thailand was 5,268 yuan per ton, and the out - of - quota import cost was 6,719 yuan per ton [25] 3.1.5 Domestic Industrial Inventory - In the 2024/25 sugar season, the industrial inventory in February was 4.9645 million tons, an increase of 795,100 tons compared with the same period last year [28] 3.1.6 ZCE Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - This week, the total of ZCE sugar warehouse receipts and forecasts was 27,410, a decrease of 560 compared with the previous week. The number of warehouse receipts was 27,410, and the valid forecast was 0 [36] 3.1.7 Brazil's Production Progress - In the first half of March, the cumulative crushing volume was 617 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.94%, and the sugar production was 39.983 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.34% [40] 3.1.8 Brazil's Bi - weekly Sugar - Making Ratio - The cumulative sugar - making ratio of sugarcane in the central - southern region of Brazil was 48.09%, compared with 48.96% in the same period last year [42] 3.1.9 Brazil's Monthly Sugar Exports - Brazil's sugar exports in February were 1.825 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 39.44%. In the 2024/25 sugar season, Brazil's cumulative exports were 33.405 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.65% [45] 3.1.10 International Main Producing Areas' Weather Conditions - Rainfall in Brazil's main producing areas increased, alleviating the relatively dry situation compared with the same period. Precipitation in India increased slightly [54][55] 3.2 Market Outlook 3.2.1 Domestic Market - Domestic sugar prices are oscillating upwards, reaching new highs. It is driven by the strong performance of the international market and supported by domestic fundamentals. The sugar sales progress is faster than the same period, imports are tightened, and the pressure on domestic sugar mills is light, with firm spot prices. There may still be room for sugar prices to rise [58] 3.2.2 International Market - The northern hemisphere is at the end of the sugar - making season, but there is still a dispute over India's production. If India's production is lower than expected, there may be imports in the third quarter. Brazil's production has started, and the initial crushing progress has a significant short - term impact on the market. The overall supply - demand pattern is tight, and international sugar prices are expected to remain strong [58]

供应预期增强 甲醇偏弱震荡 --国信期货甲醇周报 2025年4月6日 Part1 第一部分 行情回顾 目 录 CONTENTS 1 行情回顾 2 甲醇基本面分析 3 后市展望 1.1 甲醇期现货价格及价差走势 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 1,800 2,000 2,200 2,400 2,600 2,800 3,000 3,200 3,400 2023-01-01 2023-02-01 2023-03-01 2023-04-01 2023-05-01 2023-06-01 2023-07-01 2023-08-01 2023-09-01 2023-10-01 2023-11-01 2023-12-01 2024-01-01 2024-02-01 2024-03-01 2024-04-01 2024-05-01 2024-06-01 2024-07-01 2024-08-01 2024-09-01 2024-10-01 2024-11-01 2024-12-01 2025-01-01 2025-02-01 2025-03-01 2025-04-01 港口基 ...

1. Investment Rating of the Reported Industry The provided content does not mention the investment rating of the industry. 2. Core Views of the Report - The protein meal market is affected by South American soybeans and US policies, with potential supply - demand imbalances in the domestic market and price fluctuations in the futures market [2][141]. - The global oil market, including US soybean oil, Malaysian palm oil, and domestic oils, faces uncertainties such as policy changes, supply - demand dynamics, and cost factors [3][142]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections Part I: Market Review - **CBOT Soybeans**: In Q1 2025, it first rose and then fell. Factors such as drought in Argentina, USDA reports, and tariff policies influenced its price movements [7]. - **Domestic Soybean Meal**: It was slightly stronger than CBOT soybeans. It followed the upward trend of CBOT soybeans in January and then showed its own characteristics due to domestic factors like logistics and inventory [7]. - **International Oils**: They fluctuated within a range. US soybean oil and Malaysian palm oil were affected by factors such as biodiesel policies, weather, and export data [8]. - **Domestic Oils**: They were stronger than the international market. Different oils had different price trends influenced by import costs, policies, and inventory [8]. Part II: Protein Meal - **South American Soybeans**: Brazil's soybean harvest is accelerating, and exports are increasing. Although some regions had drought, the overall harvest is still expected to be abundant. The premium of Brazilian soybeans is rising [13][14]. - **US Soybeans**: The expected planting area for the new year may decrease. The market is concerned about the planting area report and US tariff policies. In the short - term, CBOT soybeans will continue to oscillate at a low level [22][50]. - **Domestic Soybean Meal**: In Q2, domestic imported soybeans will arrive in large quantities, and the supply of soybean meal will be abundant. Although the demand from pig and poultry farming remains high, there may be a situation of oversupply, and the spot and basis prices will be under pressure [78]. Part III: Oils - **US Soybean Oil**: In Q2, it still faces demand uncertainties. The export growth space may be squeezed by South American soybean oil, and the biodiesel demand outlook is not optimistic. It is advisable to adopt a range - oscillation strategy [91]. - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: It enters the production - increasing cycle in Q2, with significant supply growth. However, the export is facing problems, and price cuts may be needed to promote sales. There is a risk of price decline [105][107]. - **Domestic Oils**: In Q2, the differentiation of domestic oils will be prominent. Soybean oil has a demand advantage and may start to accumulate inventory. Palm oil has weak supply and demand, and the price difference with other oils may return. Rapeseed oil has sufficient short - term supply but may accelerate inventory reduction in Q2 [139]. Part IV: Conclusions and Operational Suggestions - **Protein Meal**: The international market focuses on US soybean planting area and tariff policies. The domestic market may face an oversupply of soybean meal. For the Dalian soybean meal market, it is advisable to buy on dips [141]. - **Oils**: US soybean oil should be treated with a range - oscillation strategy. Malaysian palm oil may decline, and domestic oils will show differentiation. Operate by shorting palm oil at high prices and going long on the price differences between soybean - palm and rapeseed - palm oils [142].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The pulp market continues to be weak, but there is some support on the cost side. It is recommended to approach it with an interval oscillation mindset [1][2][33] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - The pulp futures trend in Q1 2025 can be divided into three stages: from January 2 to 10, it dropped significantly due to limited new orders from downstream paper enterprises and high - price transaction difficulties; from January 13 to February 5, it rebounded as international pulp mills raised prices; from February 5 to the present, it declined from a high level because of high port inventories and low gross margins in the downstream paper industry [7] 2. Pulp Fundamental Analysis - **Import Volume in January**: Global pulp production is stable at around 180 million tons. In 2022, China's pulp production was about 85.87 million tons, with a 5.01% year - on - year increase. In January 2025, China's coniferous pulp imports were 727,400 tons, a 1.51% month - on - month decrease and a 1.59% year - on - year increase; broadleaf pulp imports were 1.5398 million tons, a 9.29% month - on - month decrease and a 16.49% year - on - year increase. International pulp mills have production cut plans, so the growth rate of pulp imports may slow down [13] - **Foreign Market Quotation Increase**: Suzano announced a price increase for eucalyptus broadleaf pulp in April 2025, with a $20/ton increase in Asia and a $60/ton increase in Europe and the US. Canada also raised the outer - market quotation of bleached coniferous pulp in March 2025. The price increase of international pulp mills supports the bottom price of imported broadleaf pulp [16] - **Inventory Decline in Major Domestic Ports**: After reaching a record high, the domestic pulp port inventory has gradually declined. The weekly pulp inventory in major Chinese regions and ports was 1.9593 million tons, a 1.51% decrease from last week, with the decline narrowing by 2.79 percentage points. Except for Changshu Port, the inventory in other regions and ports decreased month - on - month [17] - **Differentiated Performance of Downstream Operating Load Rates**: Global pulp apparent consumption is stable at around 180 million tons, and the supply - demand is basically balanced in the long run. In China, waste pulp consumption accounts for 63% of total pulp consumption. As of March 27, 2025, the operating load rate of domestic broadleaf pulp increased by 1 percentage point, while that of chemimechanical pulp decreased by 3 percentage points [19][23] - **Low Gross Margin of Imported Coniferous Pulp**: In March 2025, the arrival cost was $795/ton. As of March 27, the gross margin of Silver Star pulp was - 1.28%, a 1.19 - percentage - point decrease from last week. It is expected that the gross margin of imported coniferous pulp will remain low [26][27] - **Price Decline of Coniferous and Broadleaf Pulp**: As of March 27, the weekly average price of imported coniferous pulp was 6,357 yuan/ton, a 0.97% decrease from last week; the weekly average price of imported broadleaf pulp was 4,660 yuan/ton, a 0.34% decrease. Due to the low gross margin of the downstream paper industry, high - price transactions in the pulp market are still restricted [30] 3. Future Outlook - In terms of imports, the growth rate of pulp imports may slow down due to production cut plans of international pulp mills. The domestic pulp port inventory is decreasing. Downstream paper enterprises' purchasing enthusiasm has declined, but the price increase of international pulp mills pushes up the cost of imported broadleaf pulp, so it is recommended to use an interval oscillation approach [32][33]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The low inventory level provides certain support for the apple futures market, and the market is prone to rise and difficult to fall. It is recommended to adopt a bullish bias in trading strategies [1][2][46]. - In April, it is a crucial time for apple inventory reduction. After the festival, as the temperature rises and storage costs increase, the willingness of fruit farmers and merchants to sell may strengthen. With the end of the holiday, the impact of citrus fruits on apples has passed, and apple demand is expected to recover [2][20][41]. - The purchase price of new - season apples was relatively low in the early stage, which may weaken the reluctance - to - sell sentiment of fruit farmers and merchants later, facilitating the inventory reduction process [2][13][46]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In the first quarter, the main contract of apple futures, AP2505, generally showed a pattern of bottom - rebound, which can be divided into two stages. From January 2 to January 10, it was in a downward trend as the number of merchants in Shandong was small, the Spring Festival stocking volume was lower than the same period last year, and the weakening spot price drove the market down. From January 13 to the present, it has maintained a strong trend due to the low inventory level [6]. 2. Apple Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Cold - Storage Inventory - As of March 27, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory of apples was about 411,260 tons, a decrease of 1.408 million tons compared with the same period last year, at a relatively low level in the past five years. The low inventory provides support for the market [1][10][45]. - The storage profit of 80 and above first - and second - grade apples in Qixia, Shandong is 0.29 yuan per catty. Merchants have less price - holding sentiment and more price - following sales, which is conducive to inventory reduction [13]. 2.2 Market Sales Performance - The demand price elasticity coefficient of apples is about - 0.34, indicating that apple demand is inelastic to price changes, and only a significant price drop can significantly increase the inventory reduction speed [16]. - As of March 27, 2025, the national cold - storage inventory ratio was about 31.13%, a decrease of 2.47 percentage points from the previous week and 10.28 percentage points lower than the same period last year, with a de - stocking rate of 51.06%. The sales in Shandong and Shaanxi are good, and 4 - month is a critical time for inventory reduction [20]. 2.3 Import Situation - China's overall import scale of fresh apples is small, accounting for about 1% of the total output from 2010 - 2020. In February 2025, the import volume was 0.14 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 36.71% and a year - on - year increase of 54.07%. The import volume from January to February 2025 was 0.38 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 60.09%. It is expected that the import scale will remain at the current level [24]. 2.4 Export Situation - China's fresh apples are mainly exported to Southeast Asian countries. In February 2025, the export volume was about 68,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25.28% and a year - on - year increase of 26.64%. The first quarter is the export peak season, and it is expected that the export volume will remain high, which will help reduce inventory [27][30]. 2.5 Apple Demand - In February 2025, fruit prices rose to a high level. As of March 26, 2025, the average wholesale price of 7 key - monitored fruits by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs was about 7.58 yuan per kilogram, slightly higher than the same period last year. The impact of citrus fruits on apples has passed, and apple demand has recovered [35]. 2.6 Seasonal Analysis of Apple Consumption - Months with a high probability of price increase are September, November, and December. September is affected by inventory clearance, new - season apple supply, and festival demand; November and December are driven by new - fruit supply and festival effects [40]. - Months with a high probability of price decline are April, August, and October. April is a critical inventory - reduction period; August faces challenges such as the impact of seasonal fruits and quality decline; October is affected by the large - scale listing of new - season apples [41]. 3. Future Outlook - On the supply side, the low inventory level provides support for the market. On the demand side, the overall sales speed in the production area is accelerating, and the export is expected to remain at a high level. It is recommended to adopt a bullish bias in trading strategies [45][46].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - International market: Brazilian dry weather is a concern, and there may be significant year - on - year data changes at the beginning of the new crushing season. Indian sugar production estimates vary greatly around 26 million tons, causing short - term market fluctuations. Overall supply depends on Brazil. If there are no unexpected situations in Brazil, international sugar prices will likely remain in the range of 17 - 22 cents per pound in the second quarter [2][29]. - Domestic market: As Guangxi finishes the crushing season, the domestic sugar market is entering the de - stocking phase. Sales progress has improved compared to previous years, and sugar mills face limited pressure. Imports have significantly decreased, and the control of syrups and pre - mixed powders has tightened. With the rise in temperature and the upcoming May Day holiday, sugar consumption will be boosted, so domestic sugar prices are likely to rise rather than fall, with an operating range of 5,800 - 6,400 yuan per ton [2][29][30]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Domestic: In the first quarter, Zhengzhou sugar prices first declined and then rebounded. In January, due to supply pressure and weak consumption, sugar prices dropped to a low of 5,725 yuan per ton on January 22. Subsequently, driven by the international market and lower - than - expected production in Guangxi, prices rebounded. After a small adjustment, they reached a high of 6,166 yuan per ton on March 21 [5]. - International: International sugar prices fluctuated in the first quarter, ranging from 16.6 to 20.1 cents per pound. They hit a low of 16.61 cents per pound on January 21, then rebounded to 19.98 cents per pound on February 25. After a sharp drop due to large - scale contract deliveries in March, prices recovered to a high of 20.09 cents per pound [5]. 3.2 International Market Analysis - Brazil: The 2024/25 crushing season in Brazil has basically ended. As of March 1, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region was 39.822 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.58%. The current focus is on the weather in the central - southern region. Drought in March has raised concerns about sugarcane yield. Forecasts for the 2025/26 crushing season's sugarcane crushing volume vary widely, from 59 million tons to 63 million tons [8][11]. - India: There are significant differences in the estimated sugar production for the 2024/25 crushing season. The NFCSF revised the estimate to 25.9 million tons, while the ISMA estimated 26.4 million tons after adjusting for ethanol production. The production in major sugar - producing states has declined. Whether India can export or even import sugar depends on whether the production reaches 26 million tons, which will affect short - term market fluctuations [14][15][16]. 3.3 Domestic Market Analysis - Production: The estimated domestic sugar production for the 2024/25 crushing season has been revised down by 30 - 400,000 tons compared to the beginning of the season, mainly due to lower - than - expected production in Guangxi. As Guangxi is almost finished with the crushing season, the domestic market is expected to enter the de - stocking phase in April [20]. - Sales: As of the end of February 2025, sugar production was 9.7161 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.25%. Cumulative sugar sales were 4.7516 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.75%. The cumulative sales rate was 48.9%, 1.36 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The expected sugar sales volume in March is between 900,000 and 1 million tons, which supports spot sugar prices [22]. - Imports: In February 2025, China imported 20,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 470,000 tons. From January to February, cumulative sugar imports were 80,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.11 million tons. The import of syrups and pre - mixed powders also decreased. With the suspension of imports from Thailand and Vietnam, future imports are expected to decline significantly [26][27]. 3.4 Conclusion and Operational Suggestions - Conclusion: International sugar prices will likely remain volatile in the short term, and domestic sugar prices are likely to rise. - Operational Suggestions: Adopt a bullish approach for Zhengzhou sugar futures [29][30][31].

行情方面，股市成交额持续维持底量，市场降低至接近 1 万亿水平。在量 价配合上，股市整体预期回落。分化来看，不断有保险资金举牌银行股，高股 息股票延续被长期资金持有。中小盘炒作开始清淡，涨停板家数显著减少。随 着业绩披露，以及股市新规执行，风险暴露的上市公司家数预期增多。市场谨 慎分化。股指 IM 空单持有。 操作建议：股指空单轻仓 国债：利率回落，国债多单轻仓 国信期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】116 号 分析师：夏豪杰 从业资格号：F0275768 投资咨询号：Z0003021 电话：0755-23510053 邮箱：15051@guosen.com.cn 国信期货研究 Page 1 国信期货研究咨询部日常报告 晨会纪要 原油：OPEC+进一步减产成疑 油价持续下跌 晨会纪要 20250328 2020 年 02 月 27 日 2025 年 3 月 28 日 股指：股市缩量，股指空单轻仓 分析师助理：张俊峰 从业资格号：F03115138 电话：021-55007766-305163 邮箱：15721 @guosen.com.cn 独立性申明： 作者保证报告所采用的数据均来自合 规渠道， 分 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The market is turning cautious, with a shift towards anchoring on listed companies' performance. Short - term light - position short orders are recommended for stock index futures [2]. - After a rapid decline, the Treasury bond market shows signs of stabilization. Light - position long orders are recommended for Treasury bond futures [4]. - Gold and silver continue to be strong amidst differentiation. Gold is supported by geopolitical risks and inflation stickiness, while silver benefits from industrial attributes and the need to repair the gold - silver ratio [5][6]. - The prices of various commodities show different trends, including copper, aluminum, industrial silicon, etc., and corresponding trading strategies are recommended based on their fundamentals [7][9][10]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - With the cooling of speculation in small and medium - cap stocks, market trading volume has decreased rapidly. The performance growth of some banks cannot match the stock price increase, and the market is expected to return to performance - based valuation. Short - term light - position short orders are recommended for stock index futures [2]. Treasury Bond - After a sharp decline, the Treasury bond market stabilizes. The overnight SHIBOR has slightly declined, and the upward trend of medium - and long - term SHIBOR has stabilized. Light - position long orders are recommended for Treasury bond futures [4]. Precious Metals - On Wednesday night, COMEX gold declined by 0.07%, and Shanghai gold rose by 0.08%. COMEX silver rose by 3.5 cents, and Shanghai silver rose by 0.05%. Policy differences and inflation concerns affect the market. Gold is supported by geopolitical and inflation factors, and silver benefits from industrial demand. Target prices are set for both [4][5][6]. Copper - On Wednesday night, LME copper fell by 1.86%, and Shanghai copper fell by 1.08%. Trump's potential copper tariff policy and supply disruptions in Chile affect the market. The market is expected to be volatile and bullish, but attention should be paid to demand risks [7]. Alumina and Aluminum - Alumina's rebound is blocked, and it is expected to oscillate around 3000 yuan/ton. The supply - demand surplus is the main factor. For aluminum, the supply - demand fundamentals are relatively stable, and it is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term [8][9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon's price is weakly oscillating due to increased supply and low demand. Polysilicon's price is oscillating, with its fundamentals improving but slow inventory digestion [10][11]. Iron Ore - On Wednesday night, iron ore rebounded. Supply has decreased year - on - year, and demand has increased with the approaching peak season. The rebound is expected to continue, but the upside space is limited [12]. Hot Rolled Coil - On Wednesday night, hot - rolled coil oscillated. The supply - demand situation is healthy, but the pressure on steel products may accumulate. Short - term long - position participation is recommended [13]. Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke rebounded. The demand has improved marginally, and short - term trading is recommended [14]. Rebar - On Wednesday night, rebar rebounded slightly. Supply is relatively stable, and demand has recovered. Short - term trading is recommended [15]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass's price is weakly oscillating. Supply has decreased, and demand is not strong. Soda ash's price is also weakly oscillating, with a decline in supply and mixed demand [16][17]. Beans - CBOT soybeans are mixed. The market is pressured by South American soybean harvests, but the expected reduction in US soybean planting area in 2025 supports forward contracts. Attention should be paid to the support level of 2800 for Dalian soybean meal [17]. Oils and Fats - The prices of various oils and fats show different trends. International crude oil prices support the bottom of the oil market. A short - term bearish view is maintained for palm oil [18]. Cotton - US cotton prices rose, supported by rising oil prices and a strong grain market. Zhengzhou cotton oscillated slightly. Short - term trading is recommended [20]. Sugar - Raw sugar prices fell due to improved supply prospects. Zhengzhou sugar oscillated slightly, with support at 6000 yuan/ton in the short term. Short - term trading is recommended [21]. Apples - Apple futures rose significantly, supported by low inventory levels. A bullish - oscillating view is recommended for short - term operations [22]. Pulp - Pulp futures fell slightly due to low procurement enthusiasm from downstream paper mills. An oscillating view is recommended for short - term operations [23]. Crude Oil - US WTI crude oil and domestic crude oil futures rose. US crude oil inventories decreased. Technically, oil prices may continue to oscillate and rebound. A bullish - oscillating view is recommended for operations [24]. Rubber - Shanghai rubber futures fell. Thai rubber exports increased, and new rubber tapping started in Yunnan. Rubber prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [26]. Methanol - Methanol futures stabilized with low inventory. An oscillating view is recommended for operations [27]. Urea - Urea futures rose. With the arrival of the spring plowing season, demand is expected to be strong. A short - term bullish - oscillating view is recommended [28]. Asphalt - Asphalt futures oscillated. Supply is at a low level, and demand is weak. The price follows crude oil fluctuations. Short - term trading is recommended [29]. PTA - PTA futures rebounded from a low level. The market is likely to reduce inventory in March - April. A cautious long - position view and a 5/9 positive spread strategy are recommended [30]. Polyolefins - Polyolefin futures oscillated. Supply is sufficient, and demand is limited. An oscillating view is recommended for operations [31][32].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The stagflation logic and geopolitical risks provide "double insurance" for precious metals, with a medium - term upward trend. Short - term fluctuations can be seen as allocation opportunities [1]. - For copper, although there is fundamental support during the consumption season, attention should be paid to the negative feedback from the demand side and the actual implementation of Trump's tariff policy [3]. - Alumina is expected to oscillate around 3000 yuan/ton, and Shanghai aluminum is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short term [4][5]. - Industrial silicon has a poor fundamental situation and is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term, while polysilicon has a improving fundamental situation but slow inventory digestion, with short - term disk oscillation [6]. - Iron ore and hot - rolled coils are expected to continue to rebound in the short term, but the upward space is limited [8][9]. - Glass and soda ash have weak fundamentals and are expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term [10][11]. - For beans, the cost of soybean meal has declined, and there is a possibility of weakening after the main contract breaks through 2850 [11]. - Among oils and fats, rapeseed oil is relatively strong, while palm oil is weak [13]. - Zheng cotton and Zheng sugar are recommended for short - term trading [14][15]. - Apple futures are recommended to be treated with a bullish - oscillating mindset due to low inventory [16]. - Pulp is recommended to be treated with an oscillating mindset due to weak downstream demand [17][18]. - The pig market is expected to be weakly oscillating in the later period, and attention should be paid to the 7 - 11 reverse spread [19]. - Corn is expected to oscillate in the future, and an oscillating mindset is recommended for operation [20]. - Crude oil is expected to continue to oscillate and rebound in the short term, and a bullish - oscillating mindset is recommended for operation [21]. - Rubber is expected to oscillate in the short term, and an oscillating mindset is recommended for operation [23]. - Methanol is recommended to be treated with an oscillating mindset [24]. - Urea is expected to be strongly oscillating in the short term [25]. - Asphalt is expected to oscillate, and short - term trading is recommended [26]. - PTA is recommended to be treated with a cautious long - at - low mindset and hold the 5/9 positive spread [27]. - Polyolefins are recommended to be treated with an oscillating mindset [28]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - On Wednesday, domestic gold and silver continued to be strong. The main contract of Shanghai gold rose 0.47% to 709.02 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver rose 1.70% to 8366 yuan/kilogram [1]. - The sharp drop in the US consumer confidence index in March and Trump's tariff strategy strengthened the anti - risk attribute of precious metals [1]. Copper - On Wednesday, Shanghai copper rose, breaking through the 83000 yuan/ton pressure level during the session. The spot price increased by 1090 yuan/ton to 82655 yuan/ton, but market trading was poor [3]. - The possible US tariff on imported copper may lead to an accelerated flow of copper resources to the US market, and the market is bullish, but attention should be paid to the negative feedback from the demand side [3]. Alumina and Aluminum - Alumina oscillated strongly on Wednesday. The main contract AO2505 reduced positions by more than 10,000 lots. The spot price dropped to 3139 yuan/ton. A Guizhou enterprise's maintenance will relieve supply pressure, but the supply - demand surplus still suppresses prices [4]. - Shanghai aluminum oscillated strongly on Wednesday, with the main contract reducing positions by more than 5000 lots. The spot price in different regions showed different trends. The supply - demand fundamentals are stable, but high profits limit upward breakthroughs [5]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - The main contract of industrial silicon fell 1.31% to 9780 yuan/ton on Wednesday. The supply increased, while the demand remained low, with a poor fundamental situation [6]. - The main contract of polysilicon fell 0.26% to 43640 yuan/ton on Wednesday. The supply was at a low level, and the downstream demand was improving, but inventory digestion was slow [6]. Iron Ore - On Wednesday, iron ore rebounded short - term. The 05 contract rose 0.19% to 780.0. Supply decreased year - on - year, and demand increased with the approaching peak season. It is expected to continue to rebound with limited upward space [8]. Hot - Rolled Coils - On Wednesday, hot - rolled coils oscillated short - term. The 05 contract rose 0.12% to 3386. The supply - demand situation was healthy, but the inventory pressure of rebar increased. It is expected to continue to rebound with limited space [9]. Glass and Soda Ash - The main contract of glass fell 0.81% to 1229 yuan/ton on Wednesday. Supply decreased, demand was weak, and the 05 contract's position issue caused price fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and consider the 5 - 9 reverse spread [10]. - The main contract of soda ash fell 0.7% to 1427 yuan/ton on Wednesday. Supply decreased, downstream demand was weak, and inventory decreased slightly. It is expected to be weakly oscillating [11]. Beans - On Wednesday, soybean meal in Dalian fell sharply. CBOT soybeans continued to decline. Domestic oil mills entered the shutdown mode, and the cost of soybean meal decreased. The main contract breaking through 2850 may lead to a weakening trend [11]. Oils and Fats - On Wednesday, oil futures showed a differentiated trend. Rapeseed oil was strong, while palm oil and soybean oil in Dalian oscillated downward. The price of Malaysian palm oil was under pressure due to weak exports [13]. Cotton - On Wednesday, Zheng cotton oscillated slightly. The spot price was almost unchanged. The downstream start - up rate increased, but consumption was still below expectations. Short - term trading is recommended [14]. Sugar - On Wednesday, Zheng sugar rebounded following the external market. The spot price increased. The external market was strong, and the domestic supply pressure was not large. Short - term trading is recommended [15]. Apples - On Wednesday, apple futures rose significantly. The main contract AP2505 rose more than 6%. Low inventory supported the price, and a bullish - oscillating mindset is recommended [16]. Pulp - On Wednesday, pulp futures fell slightly. The main contract SP2505 oscillated weakly. The downstream purchasing enthusiasm was low, and cost provided some support. An oscillating mindset is recommended [17][18]. Pigs - On Wednesday, pig futures oscillated strongly. The main contract LH05 rose 0.37%. The spot price was weakly stable. The supply is expected to increase in the later period, and the market is expected to be weakly oscillating. Attention should be paid to the 7 - 11 reverse spread [19]. Corn - On Wednesday, corn futures ran weakly. The main contract C2505 fell 0.40%. The spot price oscillated. The supply - demand pattern is improving, but there are still potential suppressing factors. An oscillating mindset is recommended [20]. Crude Oil - On Wednesday, crude oil prices rebounded slightly. OPEC+ plans to cut production, the US sanctions on Iran and tariff on Venezuela may affect supply, and the API inventory decreased. It is expected to continue to oscillate and rebound [21]. Rubber - On Wednesday, Shanghai rubber oscillated and fell slightly. Thai rubber exports increased in February, and the domestic supply and demand situation was uncertain. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [23]. Methanol - On Wednesday, the main contract of methanol fell 0.3%, reducing positions by 1.3 million lots. The spot price was stable. Supply may increase, and demand was general. An oscillating mindset is recommended [24]. Urea - On Wednesday, the main contract of urea rose 1.72%. The spot price was stable. With the arrival of the spring plowing season, demand was strong. It is expected to be strongly oscillating in the short term [25]. Asphalt - On Wednesday, the main contract of asphalt rose 0.36%. The spot price in different regions showed different trends. Supply was at a low level, and demand was weak. It is expected to oscillate, and short - term trading is recommended [26]. PTA - On Wednesday, TA2505 rose 1.07%. The downstream demand was gradually recovering, and the market was likely to continue to destock. Cost support was strengthening. A cautious long - at - low mindset and holding the 5/9 positive spread are recommended [27]. Polyolefins - On Wednesday, plastic 2505 fell 0.45%, and PP2505 rose 0.03%. Domestic supply was sufficient, and downstream demand changed little. The spot price was weakly running. An oscillating mindset is recommended [28].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The domestic stock market has significantly reduced trading volume, and holding short positions in stock index IM is recommended. There is a possibility of market over - adjustment, and holding long positions in treasury bonds with a light position is advisable. The geopolitical conflicts and trade policies have increased the safe - haven premium of precious metals. The prices of various commodities show different trends, and corresponding trading strategies are recommended for each commodity [2][3][5][6]. Summary by Commodity Categories Stock Index and Treasury Bonds - **Stock Index**: The domestic stock market has significantly reduced trading volume, with the market turnover at the 1.5 - trillion level, far lower than the previous 2 - trillion level. Insurance funds are buying bank and high - dividend coal stocks, while retail investors are more enthusiastic about market speculation. After the hype of deepseek and humanoid robots, the market has a short - term callback sentiment. It is recommended to hold short positions in stock index IM [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: After the Spring Festival, the domestic market interest rate has rapidly declined, and there is a possibility of market over - adjustment. The basis for the long - term logic of the market is still the events of interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts. After the short - term rapid market correction, it is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds with a light position [5]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: On Tuesday night, COMEX gold rose 0.3% to $3025.90 per ounce, and the Shanghai gold main contract rose 0.23% to 707.30 yuan per gram; COMEX silver futures rose 73.7 cents to $34.187 per ounce, and the Shanghai silver main contract rose 1.63% to 8360 yuan per kilogram. The "two - step" tariff strategy proposed by the Trump administration has increased the safe - haven premium of precious metals. The target price of COMEX gold is seen at $3100 per ounce, and the Shanghai gold main contract is expected to reach 710 yuan per gram. It is recommended to add positions in batches during the correction [6]. Base Metals - **Copper**: On Tuesday night, LME copper rose 1.61% to $10094.5 per ton, and Shanghai copper rose 1.3% to 82780 yuan per ton. The weakening of the US dollar and concerns about tariff policies have pushed up copper prices. The high price difference has promoted active arbitrage trading. The fundamentals support copper prices to a certain extent, but attention should be paid to the negative feedback from the demand side. It is expected that Shanghai copper will fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the implementation of US tariff policies and risk control [7]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: On Tuesday night, alumina rose 0.68% to 3098 yuan per ton, and the main contract reduced positions by more than 4000 lots. The supply of alumina is expected to be in excess, and it is expected to test the support level around 3000 yuan per ton. LME aluminum fell 0.25% to $2608 per ton, and Shanghai aluminum rose 0.05% to 20675 yuan per ton. The downstream purchasing sentiment has improved, and it is expected that Shanghai aluminum will fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and the previous long positions can be held [8]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: On Tuesday, the main contract price of industrial silicon rose 1.63% to 9950 yuan per ton. The supply is increasing, and the demand is at a low level. The fundamentals are poor, and the short - term price will mainly fluctuate. The main contract price of polysilicon rose 0.47% to 43795 yuan per ton. The fundamentals are improving, but the inventory digestion is slow, and the short - term disk will mainly fluctuate [9]. Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: On Tuesday night, iron ore rebounded short - term. The monthly supply decreased year - on - year, and the demand increased. The inventory decreased from a high level. It is expected that the rebound will continue, but the upside space is limited. It is recommended to participate in the short - term long side [10][11]. - **Hot Rolled Coil**: On Tuesday night, hot - rolled coil fluctuated short - term. The supply and demand situation is relatively healthy. It is expected that the short - term rebound will continue, and it is recommended to participate in the short - term long side [12]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: On Tuesday night, coking coal fluctuated weakly, and coke fluctuated. The supply of coking coal is relatively loose, and the demand for coke has increased marginally. The upside pressure on the disk still exists, and short - term operations are recommended [13]. - **Rebar**: On Tuesday night, rebar fluctuated. The supply is relatively stable, and the demand has recovered but has not reached the level of the same period last year. The disk has stopped falling, and it is expected to fluctuate. Short - term operations are recommended [14]. Building Materials - **Glass and Soda Ash**: On Tuesday night, the main contract price of glass rose 1.45% to 1257 yuan per ton. The supply has decreased, and the demand has increased slightly. The fundamentals are poor, and the disk has high volatility. It is recommended to wait and see. The main contract price of soda ash rose 0.63% to 1446 yuan per ton. The supply has decreased, and the demand is relatively stable. The fundamentals are weak, and the disk will mainly fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see [15][17]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Related Products**: CBOT soybeans continued to fall due to expected bumper harvests in South America and decreased Chinese demand. CBOT soybean meal rebounded slightly at a low level. It is recommended to operate within the range. CBOT soybean oil rose due to active arbitrage trading and the rise of international crude oil. BMD palm oil fell due to increased production and weak exports. ICE rapeseed rose slightly. It is recommended that palm oil be short - side operated in the short term, and soybean oil and rapeseed oil be operated within the range [17][18]. - **Cotton**: US cotton closed lower due to the decline of grains and pre - report caution. Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated slightly at night. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading [19]. - **Sugar**: Raw sugar futures rose due to supply - side support. Zhengzhou sugar strengthened at night. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading [20][21]. - **Apples**: Apple futures fell slightly. The low inventory provides certain support to the disk. It is recommended to take a long - side approach in the short - term [22]. - **Paper Pulp**: Paper pulp futures fell slightly at night. The weak downstream demand has dragged down the disk. It is recommended to operate within the range [23]. - **Pigs**: Pig futures fluctuated strongly. The supply is expected to increase in the later period, and the demand is limited. It is recommended to pay attention to the 7 - 11 reverse spread [24]. - **Corn**: Corn futures fluctuated narrowly at night. The supply and demand pattern is improving, but there are still potential suppressing factors. It is recommended to operate with a range - bound mindset [25]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: US WTI crude oil rose 0.06% to $69.2 per barrel, and the domestic crude oil main contract SC2505 rose 0.24% to 538.6 yuan per barrel at night. OPEC + may increase production in May, and the US API crude oil inventory decreased. It is expected that the oil price will continue to fluctuate and rebound, and it is recommended to operate with a long - side bias [26]. - **Rubber**: The Shanghai rubber RU2505 contract fell 0.2% to 17100 yuan per ton at night. Thailand's rubber exports increased in February, and some areas in Xishuangbanna have started trial tapping. It is expected that the rubber price will mainly fluctuate in the short term [27]. - **Methanol**: The main contract of methanol futures fell 0.47% to 2550 yuan per ton at night. The supply is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to operate with a range - bound mindset [28]. - **Urea**: The main contract of urea futures rose 0.70% on Tuesday. The supply is sufficient, and the downstream demand is rational. It is recommended to operate with a short - term range - bound mindset [29]. - **Asphalt**: The main contract of asphalt futures rose 0.25% on Tuesday night. The supply is low, and the demand is weak. The price will follow the fluctuation of crude oil. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading [30]. - **PTA**: TA2505 rose 0.29% at night. The terminal orders are gradually increasing, and the market supply has partially recovered. It is expected to reduce inventory in March - April. It is recommended to take a cautious long - side approach and conduct a positive spread operation between May and September contracts [33]. - **Polyolefins**: L2505 and PP2505 rose 0.01% at night. The domestic production has decreased, and the market is suppressed by the production - capacity expansion expectation. The downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to operate with a range - bound mindset [34].