晨报 工业硅 工业硅：市场情绪悲观下游接货意愿不强，硅价延续弱势 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 整理 逻辑：昨日工业硅现货市场偏弱运行中，现货报价继续下跌。目前华东通氧 553#硅在 10100-10200 元/吨，华东 421#硅在 10800-11100 元/吨。期货端：工业 硅主力含约 si2505 收盘价为 9510，-0.52%，主力持仓减少 15256 手，仓为 14.85 万手，成交额为 75.14 亿元。宏观利空再次出现，场内情绪悲观氛围加重。 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 毅 供给端：陕西、云南、山东地区开工保持低位，内蒙和宁夏供给暂稳，宁夏 前期检修的两台炉子已正常开启，云南前期新建项目，近期有新增点火计划。市 场供给充裕 ...

晨报 成材 原材料：程 鹏 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 4 月 10 日 成材：贸易摩擦致钢价向下寻底 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 成材昨日延续下跌，早盘开盘一度跳水，随后反弹，日跌幅较之前几 日收窄。美表示对中国加征关税累计升至 104%，中国将对美进口产品关 税升至 84%，贸易战升级。宏观因素是目前整个市场最核心的交易逻辑， 整体氛围偏空。 观点：偏空。 后期关注/风险因素：宏观政策；下游需求情况。 重要声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证， ...

热点追踪 关税战对我国钢铁市场的影响 一、中美贸易摩擦升级 当地时间 4 月 2 日，美国总统特朗普在白宫签署所谓"对等关税"行政令，对包括中国在内的几乎所有贸易伙伴 征收高关税。受此消息影响，全球市场暴跌，海内外股市和期货市场几无幸免。本周二，白宫表示由于中国拒绝取消 报复性关税，特朗普将在之前已征收 20%和 34%关税的基础上额外征收 50%的关税，使美国对中国商品征收的总关税达 到 104%，并于美国东部时间 4 月 9 日凌晨 0 点 01 分正式生效。关税战进一步升级。 我国对美国进行了一系列的反制。2 月 4 日，中国对原产于美国的部分进口商品加征 10～15%关税。4 月 4 日，中 国宣布自 4 月 10 日起，对原产于美国的所有进口商品加征 34%关税的对等制裁。 二、高关税对于钢材出口的影响 根据海关总署数据，2023-2024 年我国钢材出口分别为 9026 万吨和 11072 万吨，同比分别增长 2280 万吨和 2046 万吨，增幅分别为 36.2%和 22.7%，连续两年保持较快增长。中钢协数据显示，2024 年，折合粗钢净出口为 1.13 亿吨， 同比增长 31.5%，达到历史 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the report is bearish [3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel price continued its downward trend under the macro bearish atmosphere, with the rebar main contract falling to 3100 and hot-rolled coil falling to 3200. The macro bearish atmosphere continued to affect the market, and the US tariff measures would have a significant negative impact on the global economy. Short-term focus should be on avoiding price decline risks [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog - On April 8, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3346 yuan/ton, with an average profit of -94 yuan/ton and a valley electricity profit of 12 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 3 yuan/ton [2] - From March 31 to April 6, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.6197 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 33.3%; the total transaction (signing) area of second-hand housing was 1.9058 million square meters, a year-on-year increase of 19.7% [2]

Group 1: Report Core View - The spot price of coking coal and coke is in a price - increase game, and the futures market price is weak. The futures market price of coking coal and coke has reached a new low, while the spot market shows signs of stabilization. During the holiday, the price of coking coal increased by 10 - 60 yuan/ton, and some coking enterprises started the first round of price increase for coke by 50 - 55 yuan/ton, but the mainstream market has not adjusted yet [2][3] - The fundamentals show that the five major steel products have entered the inventory - reduction cycle. The steel mill profitability is acceptable, the blast furnace start - up rate continued to rise last week, and the daily average hot metal output increased to 238.73 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1.45 tons and a year - on - year increase of 15.15 tons. The rigid demand for coke is improving [3] - For coking coal, the resumption of production in domestic coal mines increased last week, with the daily average output of coking coal increasing to 76.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.0 tons and a year - on - year increase of 4.1 tons. The overall recovery speed of imported coking coal supply is slow, and the inventory in the port supervision area continues to decline. Under the positive feedback of industrial chain demand, coking plants have relatively good procurement of coking coal, and the inventory has gradually shifted to coking plants, but the overall inventory of coking coal has not decreased [3] - Due to the intensification of tariff policy disturbances and the impact of the reduction of the long - term contract price of Mongolian coal in the second quarter, the coking coal futures market accelerated its decline, releasing bearish sentiment. Attention should be paid to short - term fluctuations [3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report Group 3: Later Focus - Pay attention to the changes in the blast furnace start - up rate of steel mills and the customs clearance of imported coal [4]

晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：宏观压制加大 铝价暂回调整理 投资咨询业务资格： 观点：预计价格短期偏弱调整，关注宏观情绪和下游开工。 后期关注/风险因素：关注宏观预期变动、地缘政治危机发展、矿端复 产情况、消费释放情况。 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 4 月 9 日 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日沪铝回调后区间整理，市场目前正在等待美联储将于周三公 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For finished products, the view is that they will operate in a range-bound and consolidating manner, with the price center shifting downward and weak operation. The market is in a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the winter storage this year is sluggish, providing little support for prices. Later, attention should be paid to macro policies and downstream demand [1][2]. - For aluminum ingots, in the short term, the price is expected to undergo weak adjustments, with increased price fluctuations. The domestic market is expected to be relatively firm compared to the external market. In the long term, the US "equivalent tariff" will affect domestic aluminum demand, and attention should be paid to the demand reduction after the tariff is implemented. Later, attention should be paid to macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release [2][3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - **Production Suspension Impact**: Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel enterprises will suspend production during the Spring Festival from mid - January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total of 741,000 tons of construction steel production. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills, 1 started to suspend production on January 5, and most of the rest will suspend production around mid - January, with an estimated daily production impact of about 16,200 tons for some steel mills [1][2]. - **Real Estate Transaction Data**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase from the same period last year [2]. - **Market Situation**: Yesterday, finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner, reaching a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price center continues to shift downward. The winter storage this year is sluggish, providing little support for prices [2]. Aluminum Ingots - **Production Capacity and Inventory**: In March 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity increased month - on - month due to the resumption of production in electrolytic aluminum plants. In April, it continued to rise. On April 7, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in domestic mainstream consumption areas was 774,000 tons, an increase of 9,000 tons compared to before the Tomb - Sweeping Festival and a decrease of 26,000 tons compared to the previous Monday. Although there was a 9,000 - ton inventory increase during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, the overall de - stocking trend in the first half of April remained unchanged [2]. - **Demand and Price**: The demand for photovoltaic, new energy vehicles, and power grid infrastructure provides core support, while traditional industries such as building profiles and fuel vehicles have weak demand. The US tariff policy may suppress overseas demand for aluminum, and the market has digested some of the negative expectations. In the short term, the market is worried about the global economic situation, and the aluminum price fluctuates greatly. The domestic market is expected to be relatively firm, and the import parity has improved. In the long term, the US tariff will affect domestic aluminum demand [2]. - **Market Performance**: Yesterday, the Shanghai Aluminum price adjusted downward at the opening, mainly due to the release of the "equivalent tariff" sentiment in the US last week. The subsequent decline narrowed. The US tariff has led to concerns about a global economic recession, and the US dollar has risen slightly [1].

原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 4 月 8 日 晨报 煤焦 煤焦：焦炭现货提涨 盘面弱势运行 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 逻辑：昨日，受国际贸易摩擦升级影响，市场偏空情绪急剧升温，多 数商品价格大幅低开，焦煤期价刷新低点。煤焦现货市场有企稳迹象，节 假日期间焦煤价格上涨 10-60 元/吨不等，部分地区焦化企业开始对焦价 进行首轮提涨，涨幅 50-55 元/吨。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 从基本面来看，五大材进入库存去化周期，且当前钢厂盈利率尚可， 上周高炉开工延续回升，日均铁水产量增至 238 ...

后期关注/风险因素：宏观政策；下游需求情况。 晨报 成材 成材：宏观利空 钢价下行 逻辑：外交部 4 月 7 日下午举行例行记者会。外交部发言人林剑：美 国以"对等"为名，行霸权之实，牺牲各国的正当利益，服务一己之私， 将"美国优先"凌驾于国际规则之上，是典型的单边主义、保护主义和经 济霸凌行径。中方已经发布了中国政府关于反对美国滥施关税的立场，表 明了严正态度。欧盟委员会负责贸易和经济安全等事务的委员马罗什·谢 夫乔维奇对媒体表示，欧盟准备动用"一切贸易防御手段"应对美关税冲 击，将于 4 月 15 日起实施第一轮对美反制关税。中央汇金、中国诚通、 中国国新 7 日发布公告称出手增持中国股票资产，坚决维护资本市场平稳 运行，并表示坚决当好长期资本、耐心资本、战略资本。中钢协：3 月下 旬，重点钢企粗钢日产 212.5 万吨，环比下降 1.9%；钢材库存量 1523 万 吨，环比上一旬下降 9.9%，比去年同旬下降 17.4% 证监许可【2011】1452 号 原材料：程 鹏 继美国对我国及贸易伙伴出台"对等关税"后，我国第一时间采取反 制措施。受关税摩擦影响，昨天期货市场和股市均大幅下跌，成材亦出现 较大跌 ...

晨报 工业硅 工业硅：向上依旧承压向下空间有限，硅价继续磨底震荡 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变更，我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中观点、结论和建议仅供参考，投资者据此 做出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关。 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 逻辑：昨日工业硅现货市场价格弱稳运行，市场询单有所好转。目前华东 通氧 553#硅在 10100-10300 元/吨，华东 421#硅在 10800-11200 元/吨。期货端： 工业硅主力 2505 合约收盘价格 9550，幅度-2.70%，跌 265，单日减仓 9409 手。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负 ...