【华宝期货】黑色产业链周报 华宝期货 2025.4.7 目录 01 周度行情回顾 02 本周黑色行情预判 03 品种数据（成材、铁矿石、煤焦、铁合金） 01 周度行情回顾 | 品种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 2025.4.3 | 2025.3.28 | | 价格変动 | | 2025.4.3 | 2025.3.28 | | 价格变动 | | 螺纹钢 | RB2505 | 3164 | 3197 | -33 | -1.03% | HRB400E: Φ20:汇总价格:上海 | 3230 | 3230 | 0 | 0.00% | | 热轧卷板 | HC2505 | 3337 | 3374 | -37 | -1.10% | Q235B: 5.75*1500*C: 市场价: 上海 | 3350 | 3370 | -20 | -0.59% | | 铁矿石 | 12505 | 788.5 | 785.5 | 3 | 0.38% ...

01 有色周度行情回顾 【华宝期货】有色金属周报 华宝期货 2025.4.7 目录 02 本周有色行情预判 03 品种数据（铝、锌、锡） 周度行情回顾 | 品种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | 现货价格 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2025. 4. 3 2025. 3. 28 | 周变动 | 周涨跌幅 | | | 2025. 4. 3 2025. 3. 28 | 周变动 | 周涨跌幅 | | 铜 | CU2505 | 78860 | 80450 | -1590 | -1. 98% | 中国:平均价:铜:上海物贸 | 79010 | 80685 | -1675 | -2.08% | | 品 | AL2505 | 20420 | 20580 | -160 | -0. 78% | 中国:平均价:铝(A00):有色市场 | 20520 | 20580 | -60 | -0. 29% | | 锌 | ZN2505 | 23155 | 23770 | -615 | ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The current supply - demand contradiction of industrial silicon is difficult to improve. Short - term tariff increases affect downstream demand, making it more difficult for prices to rebound. In the short term, silicon prices will continue to weaken [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Conditions - The spot price of industrial silicon was mainly weak and stable this week. The actual transaction price was pushed down due to more shipments by spot - futures traders. The price of East China oxygen - containing 553 silicon was 10100 - 10300 yuan/ton, and that of East China 421 silicon was 10800 - 11200 yuan/ton. On Friday, the closing price of the main contract si2505 of industrial silicon futures was 9820, +0.20%, with the position decreasing by 12882 hands to 179,600 hands and the trading volume reaching 6.71 billion yuan [1]. Supply Side - Factories were eager to sell at discounted prices. The lowest transaction price of 99 - silicon from northern manufacturers reached 9200 yuan/ton. The previous production - cut plan of large manufacturers in the eastern production area has been implemented. Currently, there are 21 operating submerged arc furnaces in the east and 45 in the west, and the west has no plan to increase production. Other silicon factories have no joint production - cut phenomenon. This production - cut plan lasts for more than 2 months, which may relieve inventory pressure in the long run. Recently, the tender price of downstream powder orders was lower than expected, and the profit of powder mills was meager [1]. Demand Side - The organic silicon DMC market held firm this week, with the mainstream transaction price at 14000 - 14500 yuan/ton (net water delivered). Some monomer plants adopted production - cut and production - control strategies, reducing the operating load of monomer equipment as planned. The decrease in supply supported the price, and the market sentiment and trading atmosphere improved. The price of polysilicon remained stable. Silicon material enterprises planned to add production lines to produce deliverable goods, and the registration of silicon material warehouse receipts was open, with only 10 successful registrations on Friday. The price of re -投料 was 37 - 39 yuan/kg, dense material 35 - 38 yuan/kg, cauliflower material 32 - 34 yuan/kg, and N - type material 41 - 43 yuan/kg. The price of aluminum alloy ingots was stable, but the market demand was weak, the trading atmosphere was light, and the procurement enthusiasm of downstream die - casting enterprises was low [1]. Inventory - On April 3, the warehouse receipt inventory of industrial silicon was 70034 hands, an increase of 243 hands this week, and the warehouse receipt inventory remained at a high level [1].

晨报 成材 成材：关税摩擦下 钢价偏空运行 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 观点：偏空。 后期关注/风险因素：宏观政策；下游需求情况。 原材料：程 鹏 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 4 月 7 日 逻辑：当地时间 4 月 2 日，美国总统特朗普在白宫宣布对贸易伙伴征 收所谓的"对等关税"措施。对中国实施 34%的对等关税，对欧盟实施 20% 的对等关税，对日本实施 24%的对等关税。上周，247 家钢厂高炉炼铁产 能利用率 87.33%，环比上周减少 0.47 个百分点；日均铁水产量 232.61 万吨，环比上周减少 1.26 万吨；钢厂盈利率 49.78%，环比上周减少 2.17 个百分点。全国 87 家独立电弧炉钢厂平均开工率 67.83%，环比减少 0.52 个百分点，同比减少 7.32 个百分点；平均产 ...

晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：关税政策重创市场情绪 铝价向下回调 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:上周铝价偏弱调整，受美国"对等关税"超预期引发的市场对全 球贸易冲突升级以及全球经济衰退担忧的影响，市场风险偏好大幅降温并 引发了市场大规模抛售。虽然铝产品受 232 条款关税约束无需缴纳新关税， 但政策对全球贸易影响深远，对终端消费的利空预计逐步体现。 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交（签约）面积总计 223.4 万平方米，环比下降 40.3%， ...

晨报 煤焦 煤焦：关税政策冲击市场情绪 盘面弱势运行 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 逻辑：近期美国政府关税政策超市场预期，我国对此加以反制，关税 扰动加剧，市场情绪将受冲击，黑色金属板块震荡偏弱。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 从基本面来看，五大材进入库存去化周期，且当前钢厂盈利率尚可， 上周高炉开工延续回升，日均铁水产量增至 238.73 万吨，环比上周增加 1.45 万吨，同比去年增加 15.15 万吨，焦炭刚性需求向好。焦煤方面， 上周煤矿开工率提升，焦精煤日均产量 76.9 万吨，环比增加 1.0 万吨，同 比增加 4.1 万吨；进口端，3 月中旬蒙煤通关量较上旬回升，口岸监管区 库存仍在高位，月度数据显示，蒙煤前 2 月累计进口量 644.26 万吨，同 比降幅较明显，达 17.03%。 原材料：程 鹏 观点：关税政策扰动加剧，市场情绪受到冲击。盘面亦受交割博弈拖 累，短期煤焦整体维持低位震荡 ...

Group 1 - The investment rating of the industry is not mentioned in the report [1][2] Group 2 - The core view of the report is that the current supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon has not reversed, and there is a lack of driving force for price increases. In the short term, industrial silicon will mainly operate weakly and stably [2] Group 3 Logic - The spot market quotation of industrial silicon was stable yesterday, but the actual transaction price may decline. The price of East China oxygen - mixed 553 silicon is 10100 - 10300 yuan/ton, and that of East China 421 silicon is 10800 - 11200 yuan/ton. The closing price of the main contract si2505 of industrial silicon futures was 9760, down 0.20%, with the main contract reducing its position by 17,564 lots, the position being 192,500 lots, and the trading volume being 6.161 billion yuan [1] Supply - side - The production of silicon enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Yunnan, Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Shandong is currently stable, and the previously planned production cuts have not been implemented, resulting in the accumulation of enterprise inventories. The northern market has abundant supplies, and spot - futures traders are actively quoting prices. The market's inquiries about substitutes such as recycled silicon and 97 - silicon are increasing, but the transactions are average. The powder - list tender price has declined again, and the demand in the silicone industry is difficult to remain stable due to production cuts [1] Demand - side - The current polysilicon price is stable, and downstream buyers still purchase on demand, with no significant increase in the demand for silicon materials. The current price of re - feeding materials is 37 - 39 yuan/kg, the price of dense materials is 35 - 38 yuan/kg, the price of cauliflower materials is 32 - 34 yuan/kg, and the price of N - type materials is 41 - 43 yuan/kg. The silicone DMC quotation is generally stable, with the mainstream transaction price referring to 14,000 - 14,500 yuan/ton (net water delivered). The mainstream production devices have gradually started flexible production adjustments. However, the demand side is restricted by weak terminal consumption, and downstream buyers only purchase on demand and try to lower prices. The market trading activity depends on rigid demand. The price of aluminum alloy ingots is stable, the alloy ingot market still has weak demand, the market trading atmosphere remains light, and the procurement enthusiasm of downstream die - casting enterprises is not high [1] Inventory - On April 2, the warehouse receipt inventory of industrial silicon was 70,034 lots, an increase of 324 lots on that day, and the warehouse receipt inventory remained at a high level [1]

晨报 铁矿石 铁矿石：对等关税利空 价格偏弱运行 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 4 月 3 日 供应方面：本期主流发运属于季末冲量期，发运量环比回升，4 月份供应端整体预期环比 增加，其中主流矿山存在季未冲量后的季节性下滑预期，一般存在 1 周左右发运环比减量，非 主流保持相对偏弱，国产矿处于缓慢回升阶段，预计供给端将处于回升周期，供给端支撑力度 进一步减弱。 成 材：武秋婷 需求方面：需求整体处于回升阶段，根据当前钢厂利润水平以及下游需求变动情况来看，4 月份国内铁矿石需求仍存在一定上升空间，预期铁水最高或上升至 240 万吨/日( ...

晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：宏观政策干扰 铝价回调去库良好 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 20 日后停产放假，停产期间日度影响产量 1.62 万吨左 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:昨日铝价偏弱整理。据新华社报道，美国总统特朗普 2 日在白宫 签署关于所谓"对等关税"的行政令，宣布美国对贸易伙伴加征 10%的"最 低基准关税"并对某些贸易伙伴征收更高关税。对全球贸易紧张局势升级 对美国经济影响的担忧，以及一系列弱于预期的美国数据，加剧了经济衰 退的担忧，美元走弱。 右。2024 年 12 月 30 日-2025 年 1 月 5 日，10 个重点城市新建商品房成 交（签约）面积总计 223.4 万平方米，环比下降 40.3%，同比增长 43.2%。 成材昨日继续震荡下行，价格再创近期新低。在供需双弱的格局下， ...

晨报 成材 成材：关注周度需求变化 整理运行 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 地址：北京市海淀区海淀大街 8 号 19 层 ☎ 400-700-6700 www.zgfcc.com 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 4 月 3 日 逻辑：本周，唐山主流样本钢厂平均钢坯含税成本 2946 元/吨，与 4 月 2 日当前普方坯出厂价格 3050 元/吨相比，钢厂平均盈利 104 元/吨， 周环比增加 4 元/吨。百年建筑调研，截至 4 月 1 日，样本建筑工地资金 到位率为 57.95%，周环比上升 0.08 个百分点。其中，非房建项目资金到 位率为 59.74%，周环比上升 0.04 个百分点。4 月 2 日，M ...