铁矿石：短期情绪缓和 矿价估值修复 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 晨报 铁矿石 供应方面：4 月进口环同比增加。4 月铁矿石进口数量 10313.80 万吨，同比从 3 月的-6.5% 升至 1.3%，进口金额同比从 3 月的-21.5%升至-12.2%。5 月份是外矿发运旺季，主流矿山预计 发运保持平稳回升态势，供给端支撑力度边际减弱。 成 材：武秋婷 需求方面：国内需求整体处于历史同期高位区，铁水连续两周维持245+万吨/日(钢联口径)， 从成材表需回落以及出口端预期影响，预期铁水上升高度有限且短期需求端见顶概率偏高，但 当前钢厂盈利率水平较高，后期需等待出口端利空验证，预期下周铁水将保持相对高位。库存 方面：从当前国内高企的需求水平来看，5 月份港口库存水平将保持相对平稳或偏向于去化态 势，但整体评估来看，库存整体处于高位，库存高位阶段 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint of the Report - The current oversupply situation of industrial silicon is difficult to change in the short term. Downstream production cuts and high inventory suppress price rebounds, leading to weak and volatile silicon prices [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - Yesterday, the industrial silicon market declined. Manufacturers' quotes were under pressure, and downstream demand had no new growth. The price of East China oxygenated 553 silicon was 8900 - 9200 yuan/ton, and that of East China 421 silicon was 9800 - 10100 yuan/ton. The closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract si2506 was 8230, down 0.60%, with a single - day reduction of 9326 lots. It was shifting to the far - month contract, with a current position of 162,300 lots and a trading volume of 13.666 billion yuan [1] Supply Side - Recently, some silicon plants in the South are preparing to start furnaces, and some submerged arc furnaces will start from the end of this month to early next month. Some northern factories are struggling at the cost line. If the futures price drops below 8000, some small and medium - sized silicon plants are expected to cut production [1] Demand Side - Polysilicon prices are stable, with continuous news of production cuts and acquisitions. The current quotes for N - type dense material, N - type granular silicon, N - type re - feeding material, and N - type mixed material are 38 - 40 yuan/kg, 35 - 38 yuan/kg, 39 - 43 yuan/kg, and 36 - 38 yuan/kg respectively. The price of organic silicon DMC is stable, with a market - mainstream opening price reference of 11300 - 12000 yuan/ton (net water delivered). Shandong's main monomer enterprises slightly lowered prices to boost sales, but downstream inquiry enthusiasm was low, and procurement was mainly for rigid demand. The overall demand release was limited, and market transactions weakened with strong bargaining tendencies. Aluminum alloy ingot prices were temporarily stable, the industry's operating rate decreased, and downstream enterprises mainly consumed pre - holiday orders with insufficient post - holiday stocking willingness [1] Inventory - On May 13th, the industrial silicon warehouse receipt inventory was 66,494 lots, a decrease of 603 lots. Although the warehouse receipt inventory continued to decrease, the total industrial silicon inventory remained at a high level [1]

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views - The price of finished products is expected to move in a downward - centered and weak manner, and will be in a state of shock consolidation. The price of aluminum ingots is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term. [1][3][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Content For Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel enterprises will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, and resume production around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total output of 741,000 tons. In Anhui, 1 short - process steel mill stopped production on January 5, most will stop around mid - January, and individual ones after January 20, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons. [2][3] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% month - on - month decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase. [3] - The price of finished products continued to decline in shock, hitting a new low recently. In the context of weak supply and demand, market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, with weak price support. [3] - The finished products are expected to move in a shock - consolidated manner, and attention should be paid to macro - policies and downstream demand. [3] For Aluminum - Yesterday, the aluminum price fluctuated strongly. The US CPI increased by 0.2% last month, lower than the expected 0.3%, and the consumer price index decreased by 0.1% in March. The easing of trade tensions reduced the market's expectation of an economic recession. [2] - Last week, the total operating capacity of alumina enterprises decreased slightly by 80,000 tons/year. In the short - term, the operating capacity may fluctuate. The spot price may rebound slightly, but the cost - side support is weakening, and the price is expected to move in a shock in the short - term. [3] - Last week, the domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises' operating rate increased by 0.3 percentage points to 61.9%. The aluminum cable operating rate increased by 1.4 percentage points to 65.6%, while the national profile operating rate decreased by 1.5 percentage points to 57.5%. [3] - On May 12, the domestic mainstream consumption area's electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory was 601,000 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons from last Thursday and 35,000 tons from May 6. It is expected to break through the 600,000 - ton mark this Thursday. [3] - The aluminum price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream operating rates, as well as macro - expectations, geopolitical crises, mine resumption, and consumption release. [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel price of finished products showed a pattern of rising and then falling due to low demand. Given the current macro and fundamental situation, it is recommended to try short - selling at high prices after a rebound. For raw materials, there may still be a rebound in the near term, and short - selling can be attempted during the rebound [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Real Estate - From May 5th to May 11th, the total contracted area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.4548 million square meters, with a 13.2% month - on - month increase and a 17.7% year - on - year decrease [2] White Goods - According to the online market monitoring data of Aowei Cloud Network, in April, the year - on - year growth rates of the online retail sales of refrigerators, freezers, washing machines, independent dryers, and air conditioners were +1.0%, - 0.8%, +10.8%, +45.0%, and +34.8% respectively [2] Steel Industry - On May 13th, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3334 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 8 yuan/ton. The average profit was - 87 yuan/ton, and the valley - electricity profit was 18 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 12 yuan/ton. On May 13th, the ex - factory price of ordinary billet resources in Qian'an, Tangshan was reduced by 20 yuan to 2950 yuan. On May 12th, the release of the "Geneva Economic and Trade Joint Statement" between China and the United States was beneficial at the macro - level, leading to a rebound in many commodity varieties. However, there was still pressure on the domestic demand side. In the industry, due to the still - existing profits of steel mills, the hot - metal output and steel mill operating rates increased last week, but the downstream was gradually entering the off - season of demand, resulting in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the steel price was under pressure [2]

晨报 铁矿石 铁矿石：中美会谈超预期 短期估值或修复 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 本报告中的信息均来源于公开的资料，我公司对信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证，也不保证包含的信 息和建议不会发生变更，我们已力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中观点、结论和建议仅供参考，投资者据此 做出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关。 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 5 月 13 日 逻辑：昨日中美贸易会谈结果超预期，双方均对谈判结果给出高度认同，权益市场以及商 品市场（除贵金属）均出现不同程度拉升，夜盘铁矿石大幅冲高触及前期高点。中美贸易回到 正常轨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views -成材预计震荡整理运行，铝价预计短期偏强震荡 [2][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs 成材 -云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节停产检修预计影响总产量74.1万吨，安徽省短流程钢厂停产期间日度影响产量1.62万吨左右 [3][4] -2024年12月30日 - 2025年1月5日，10个重点城市新建商品房成交面积环比降40.3%，同比增43.2% [4] -成材昨日震荡下行价格创新低，供需双弱、市场情绪悲观致价格重心下移，冬储低迷对价格支撑不强 [4] 铝锭 -昨日铝价偏强震荡，因中美贸易摩擦担忧缓和，投资者信心修复，铝需求预期提振 [3] -上周国内铝下游加工龙头企业开工率环比涨0.3个百分点至61.9%，各板块开工分化，铝板带开工率降0.4个百分点，铝线缆开工率升1.4个百分点，型材开工率降1.5个百分点 [4] -5月12日国内主流消费地电解铝锭库存60.1万吨，较上周四降1.9万吨，较5月6日降3.5万吨，预计本周四有望跌破60万吨 [4] 后期关注因素 -成材关注宏观政策和下游需求情况 [4] -铝锭关注宏观预期变动、地缘政治危机发展、矿端复产情况、消费释放情况 [5]

晨报 工业硅 工业硅：过剩格局短期难改库存仍处高位，硅价弱势震荡 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 原材料：程 鹏 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 整理 逻辑：昨日工业硅现货市场弱势运行，受下游需求持续弱影响，市场持续 低迷运行。目前华东通氧 553#硅在 8900-9200 元/吨，华东 421#硅在 9800-10100 元/吨。期货端：昨日工业硅主力 2506 合约收盘价格 8320 元，幅度+0.24%，涨 20 元，单日减仓 1216 手。 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 毅 供给端：工业硅市场整体供应宽松，北方厂家有小幅减量，临近丰水期， 北降南增趋势逐渐显现,但受行情价格影响，西南厂家整体开工意愿较弱，供应 端变化不大。受下游需求影响，成交价格有所下探,买方仍占据主导地位,市场 整体成交一般。甘肃产区工业硅开工较稳定，近期受价格影响或有转减产现象 发生。中 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The Sino-US trade relationship shows signs of easing, with the negotiation outcome mainly depending on the US. The market expects the US to reduce tariffs to 80%, while China hopes to restore tariffs to the level before April. Short - term domestic macro - policies are in a vacuum, and future incremental policies will depend on tariff impacts and the performance of the equity market [3]. - Short - term demand has basically peaked but the inflection point is yet to come. In the medium term, the market has not fully priced in the negative impact on the export end. As supply continues to rise, the iron ore supply - demand is expected to remain in a loose pattern [3]. - It is recommended to conduct range - bound operations. The price range for the i2509 contract is 690 yuan/ton - 720 yuan/ton, and for the outer - market FE06 contract, it is 95 - 98 US dollars/ton. Short positions should be held [3]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Logic - After the holiday, the iron ore price was generally weak. The monetary policy on May 7th caused a price pulse, and the Politburo meeting at the end of April and the monetary policy in early May both saw the fulfillment of positive factors. The terminal demand expectation is still weak. Although the high export data in April showed high resilience, the "rush - to - export" growth rate significantly declined. The weekly high - frequency data shows that the decline in the apparent demand for finished products last week exceeded the previous and seasonal levels. The rebar inventory decreased seasonally, while the hot - rolled coil inventory slightly increased. Future attention should be paid to the expected changes in exports and the impact of the weakening manufacturing processing profit on hot - rolled coils [2]. Supply - In April, iron ore imports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The import volume in April was 10313.80 million tons, with the year - on - year growth rate rising from - 6.5% in March to 1.3%, and the import value year - on - year rising from - 21.5% in March to - 12.2%. May is the peak season for overseas ore shipments, and mainstream mines are expected to see a steady recovery in shipments, with the supporting strength of the supply side weakening marginally [2]. Demand - Domestic demand is generally at a high level in the same historical period. The molten iron production has remained above 245 million tons per day for two consecutive weeks (Steel Union data). Considering the decline in the apparent demand for finished products and the expected impact on the export end, the upward potential of molten iron is limited, and there is a high probability that the short - term demand has reached its peak. However, the current profitability rate of steel mills is relatively high. It is necessary to wait for the verification of negative factors on the export end. It is expected that the molten iron production will remain at a relatively high level next week [3]. Inventory - Given the current high domestic demand level, the port inventory in May will remain relatively stable or tend to be destocked. However, overall, the inventory is at a high level, and the phased destocking at a high inventory level cannot provide upward momentum. Future attention should be paid to the recovery amplitude of supply - side shipments and the inflection point of the demand side [3].

晨报 铝锭 成文时间： 2025 年 5 月 12 日 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：宏观情绪支撑 关注消费和库存验证 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 证监许可【2011】1452 号 逻辑:上周铝价偏强震荡，运行重心小幅上移。上周会议结束后首批发 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The current marginal demand for industrial silicon is weakening, the oversupply pattern is difficult to reverse, and high inventory and high warehouse receipts suppress the price rebound. Silicon prices are in a weak and volatile state [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - This week, the industrial silicon spot market is running weakly. Affected by the continuous weak downstream demand, the market is in a continuous slump. The price of East China oxygen - containing 553 silicon is 8900 - 9300 yuan/ton, and the price of East China 421 silicon is 9800 - 10200 yuan/ton [1]. - Last Friday, the closing price of the main industrial silicon futures contract si2506 was 8205, a decrease of 0.55%. The daily position reduction was 10,933 lots. The current position is 170,200 lots, and the trading volume is 14.349 billion yuan [1]. Supply Side - Northwest large - scale factories continue to cut production. The eastern production area has shut down 3 submerged arc furnaces, and the western production area has shut down 5 submerged arc furnaces, a total of 8. There may be more shutdown plans in the future. In the southwest production area, manufacturers are cautious about the current market, but some manufacturers said they will increase or resume production. It is expected that about 10 submerged arc furnaces will resume production from the end of the month to the second half of the month [1]. Demand Side - Polysilicon prices have no obvious fluctuations and remain within a range. The N - type compact material is quoted at 38 - 40 yuan/kg, the N - type granular silicon is quoted at 35 - 38 yuan/kg, the N - type re - feed material is quoted at 39 - 43 yuan/kg, and the N - type mixed material is quoted at 36 - 38 yuan/kg. Component inventories are under pressure, and some enterprises are gradually planning production cuts. The main polysilicon futures contract ps2506 is approaching its first delivery, with obvious long - short differences in the market [1]. - The market price of organic silicon DMC is generally stable, with the mainstream opening price in the market referring to 11,500 - 12,000 yuan/ton (net water delivered). The organic silicon market shows signs of phased stabilization, but the supply - demand contradiction still exists [1]. - The price of aluminum alloy ingots is temporarily stable. The industry's operating rate has decreased. Downstream enterprises mainly consume pre - holiday orders, and their willingness to stock up after the holiday is insufficient [1]. Inventory On May 9, the industrial silicon warehouse receipt inventory was 67,338 lots, a single - week decrease of 1,898 lots. The warehouse receipt inventory continues to decrease but remains at a high level [1].