Group 1: Report Core View - The weak performance of overseas markets during the "Dragon Boat Festival" may drag down the A-share market. It is expected that the A-share market will shift from the previous upward oscillation to a downward oscillation after the festival. Investors are advised to closely monitor market dynamics, flexibly adjust their position allocations, and reasonably control their position levels [1][15] Group 2: Market Performance - Last week, IF2506 closed at 3,822.4 points, down 13.0 points or 0.62% from the previous week. IH2506 closed at 2,667.2 points, down 25.8 points or 0.96% from the previous week [4] Group 3: Fundamental Analysis - On May 31, local time, the US Trade Representative's Office announced an extension of the tariff exemptions for some products in the Section 301 investigation into China's actions, policies, and practices regarding technology transfer, intellectual property, and innovation. These exemptions, originally set to expire on May 31, 2025, have been extended to August 31, 2025 [7] Group 4: Valuation Analysis - As of June 3, the PE of the CSI 300 Index was 12.46 times, with a quantile of 51.18%, and the PB was 1.3 times. The PE of the SSE 50 Index was 10.86 times, with a quantile of 72.16%, and the PB was 1.19 times. The PE of the CSI 1000 Index was 40.06 times, with a quantile of 59.8%, and the PB was 2.01 times [7] Group 5: Other Data - The equity - bond yield spread is the difference between the stock market yield and the government bond yield. There are two formulas for calculating the equity - bond yield spread: one is based on the reciprocal of the price - earnings ratio, and the other is based on the dividend yield [12]

研究报告 甲醇月报 基本面依旧偏弱，未来关注宏观 华龙期货投资咨询部 期货从业资格证号：F0295717 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011567 电话：15693075965 邮箱：2463494881@qq.com *特别声明：本报告基于公开信息编制而成，报告对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本文中 的操作建议为研究人员利用相关公开信息的分析得出，仅供投资者参考，据此入市风险自负。 研究报告 本报告中所有观点仅供参 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 能化研究员：宋鹏 5 月，甲醇基本面依旧偏弱，5 月甲醇供给增加较为明显，而 甲醇下游主力产品产能利用率下降。供需偏弱，使得企业出货不 理想，进而导致甲醇企业库存上升。港口库存方面，由于进口增 加，使得 5 月甲醇港口库存同样上升。偏弱的基本面使得 5 月国 内甲醇价格下跌明显，进而导致甲醇企业利润下降。5 月外围甲 醇市场同样呈现需求不足，国际甲醇价格同样呈现下跌。 【后市展望】 报告日期：2025 年 6 月 3 日星期二 6 月预计甲醇产量将继续增加，供给端仍是甲醇的主 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint In May 2025, the price of soybean meal futures bottomed out and rebounded. The USDA report is bullish for U.S. soybeans, and as the North American production area enters a period sensitive to weather factors, the price of U.S. soybean futures is likely to rise. With a large number of Brazilian soybeans arriving at ports, the market supply has significantly recovered, and the operating rate of oil mills has rebounded sharply. The inventory of soybean meal has reached an inflection point, and the basis of soybean meal has rapidly declined from a high level and turned negative. The pressure from the weak far - month basis and inventory reconstruction is accumulating. Although the phased strength of U.S. soybean futures will still boost domestic soybeans, the rebound space of domestic soybean meal futures prices will be limited due to the large arrival of domestic soybeans, and the pattern of strong external and weak internal markets will continue [8][34][35]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Review In May 2025, the weighted price of soybean meal futures rose by 1.38% to close at 2946, and the weighted price of rapeseed meal rose by 3.34% to close at 2571. In the international market, the continuous price of U.S. soybeans fell by 0.17% to close at 1042.25, and the price of U.S. soybean meal fell by 0.44% to close at 296.10 [6][9]. Fundamental Analysis - **USDA Report on U.S. Soybeans**: In the 2025/26 season, the U.S. soybean planting area is 83.5 million acres, a year - on - year decrease of 3.6%; the estimated yield per unit is 52.5 bushels per acre, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%; the soybean production is estimated to be 4.34 billion bushels, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6%. The estimated soybean crushing volume is 2.49 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. The export volume is expected to drop to 1.815 billion bushels, a year - on - year decrease of 1.9%. The ending inventory of soybeans is expected to be 295 million bushels, a year - on - year decrease of 15.7%. The inventory - to - use ratio is estimated to be 6.7%, lower than 8.0% in the 2024/25 season, indicating a tightening supply [18]. - **Global Soybean Supply and Demand**: In the 2025/26 season, the global soybean production is estimated to be 427 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.95 million tons, mainly contributed by the increase in Brazilian soybean production; the import volume is 186 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.66 million tons; the crushing volume is 366 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.3 million tons; the export volume is 188 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.56 million tons; the global ending inventory of soybeans is 124 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.15 million tons [7][21]. - **Other Data**: As of May 25, 2025, the soybean meal inventory of oil mills was 215,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 89,300 tons, and the inventory was at a historically low level. As of May 30, 2025, the breeding profit of purchased piglets was - 84.37 yuan per head, and the profit was at a historically high level. As of April 2025, the feed production was 26.64 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%, and the feed production was at a historically high level [25][27][28]. Cross - Variety Analysis - As of May 30, 2025, the spot crushing profit of domestic soybeans in Heilongjiang was - 142.3 yuan per ton, and the spot crushing profit of imported soybeans in Jiangsu was 39.4 yuan per ton, with the latter at an average level. - As of May 30, 2025, the price ratio of the main futures contracts of Dalian soybean oil and soybean meal was 2.57, and the ratio was at a historically high level. - As of May 30, 2025, the price ratio of the main futures contracts of Zhengzhou rapeseed meal and Dalian soybean meal was 0.89, and the price difference was - 331 yuan per ton [30][32][33]. Outlook The focus is on whether the export demand for U.S. soybeans can recover. The USDA report is bullish for U.S. soybeans, and the price of U.S. soybean futures is likely to rise. With the arrival of a large number of Brazilian soybeans, the supply has recovered, the operating rate of oil mills has increased, and the soybean meal inventory has reached an inflection point. The basis of soybean meal has declined and turned negative. The pressure from the weak far - month basis and inventory reconstruction is increasing. Although the strength of U.S. soybean futures will boost domestic soybeans, the rebound space of domestic soybean meal futures prices will be limited, and the pattern of strong external and weak internal markets will continue [8][34][35].

投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 研究报告 橡胶周报 供需宽松消息扰动，盘面或将偏弱运行 期货从业资格证号：F0305828 投资咨询资格证号：Z0011566 电话：0931-8894545 邮箱：2367823725@qq.com 本报告中所有观点仅供参 的免责声明。 摘要： 【行情复盘】 研究员：张正卯 上周天然橡胶主力合约 RU2509 价格在 13400-14545 元/吨 之间运行，上周期货价格震荡下行，总体大幅下跌。 截至 2025 年 5 月 30 日上周五下午收盘，天然橡胶主力合 约 RU2509 报收 13405 元/吨，当周下跌 11300 点，跌幅 7.77%。 后续重点关注橡胶主产区天气扰动情况、零关税政策推进 情况、欧盟反倾销调查最新进展和中美关税变化情况。 【操作策略】 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 预计天然橡胶期货主力合约本周或将维持震荡偏弱运行。 操作上，可考虑逢反弹轻仓试空，入场时做好止损。 *特别声明：本报告基于公开信息编制而成，报告对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本文中 的操作建议为研究人员利用相关公开信息的分析得出，仅供投资者参考，据此入市 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View - The stock index futures market in May showed an overall upward trend but is shifting from strong to weak oscillations. The domestic economic data in May was divergent, and the overseas economic situation was complex. Although the market has some short - term upward momentum, it faces significant domestic and foreign pressures in the medium term. Investors should closely monitor economic data and policy dynamics, adjust investment strategies flexibly, control risks effectively, and seize structural market opportunities [23][24] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - Last week, IC2506 closed at 5,627.8 points, up 130.8 points or 2.38% from the previous month. IM2506 closed at 5,966.0 points, up 164.6 points or 2.84% from the previous month [5] 3.2 Economic Indicator Analysis - In May, the manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing's prosperity level [6] - In May, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. It remained above the critical point, and the non - manufacturing sector continued to expand [8] - In May, the composite PMI output index was 50.4%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, showing that the overall production and business activities of Chinese enterprises continued to expand [10] 3.3 Valuation Analysis - As of June 2, the PE of the CSI 500 Index was 28.65 times, the percentile was 65.96%, and the PB was 1.77 times. The PE of the CSI 1000 Index was 39.26 times, the percentile was 57.06%, and the PB was 2.05 times [14] 3.4 Other Data - The current "total market value/GDP" percentile in historical data is 58.18%, and in the last 10 - year data, it is 48.39% [21]

螺纹周报 研究报告 华龙期货投资咨询部 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2012】1087 号 黑色板块研究员：魏云 期货从业资格证号：F3024460 投资咨询资格证号：Z0013724 电话：17752110915 邮箱：497976013@qq.com 报告日期：2025 年 6 月 3 日星期二 据此入市风险自负。 本报告中所有观点仅供参 的免责声明。 *特别声明：本报告基于公开信息编制而成，报告对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作 任何保证。本文中的操作建议为研究人员利用相关公开信息的分析得出，仅供投资者参考， 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 一、价格分析 （一）期货价格 （二）现货价格 螺纹钢现货价 摘要： 行情回顾：上周螺纹 2510 合约下跌 3.08%。 基本面：据我的钢铁网数据，上周螺纹钢周度产量 225.51 万吨，环比下降 5.97 万吨，钢厂库存 186.46 万吨， 环比下降 1.3 万吨，社会库存 394.59 万吨，环比下降 21.87 万吨，钢材五大品种周度产量 880.85 万吨，环比上升 8.41 万吨，库存合计 1365.6 万吨，环比下降 32.94 万吨，表观需 求 913. ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The market expectation for methanol has not improved, and methanol is likely to continue its weak and volatile trend. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [8][9][39]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Methanol Trend Review - Last week, methanol futures fluctuated downward. By Friday afternoon's close, the weighted methanol price was 2,235 yuan/ton, a 2.74% decrease from the previous week [11]. - In the spot market, the main trading logic shifted from the macro - level to the fundamental level. Due to the expected increase in supply, the market was under pressure. Although there was some support from downstream procurement and device startups, it was weak. As of May 22, the methanol price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2,334 yuan/ton, down 4.34%; in Guangdong, it was 2,356 yuan/ton, down 1.79%; in Ordos North Line, it was 2,069 yuan/ton, down 2.22%; and in Shandong Jining, it was 2,274 yuan/ton, down 1.81% [11]. 3.2 Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: Last week, there were more maintenance than restart operations in domestic methanol production. The production volume was 1,961,475 tons, a decrease of 29,580 tons from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 87.04%, a 1.62% decrease [12]. - **Demand**: In the downstream, the capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region increased significantly. As of May 22, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region was 68.78%, a 9 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The capacity utilization rates of dimethyl ether, glacial acetic acid increased, while those of chlorides and formaldehyde decreased slightly [16][17]. - **Inventory**: As of May 21, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 336,000 tons, a 0.07% increase from the previous period, and the pending orders were 235,200 tons, a 14.03% decrease. The port sample inventory was 490,400 tons, a 1.34% increase [21][29]. - **Profit**: Last week, the profits of domestic methanol sample production enterprises showed mixed trends but generally declined. For example, the average profit of coke - oven gas in Hebei was 273 yuan/ton, a 13.79% decrease; the average profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia was 237.70 yuan/ton, a 2.74% decrease [30]. 3.3 Outlook for Methanol Trends - **Supply**: This week, there will be more restarts than maintenance in methanol production enterprises. It is expected that the production volume will be about 1.9674 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 87.30%, an increase from last week [34]. - **Demand**: The start - up of the methanol - to - olefins industry has increased, and methanol demand has improved. However, the capacity utilization rates of some downstream products such as acetic acid and chlorides are expected to decline [37][38]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 337,000 tons, an increase from last week. The port inventory is also expected to continue to accumulate due to sufficient imports [38].

螺纹周报 研究报告 中期震荡为主，短线或有走弱风险 | 华龙期货投资咨询部 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格： | | | | | | 证监许可【2012】1087 号 | | | | | | 黑色板块研究员：魏云 | | | | | | 期货从业资格证号：F3024460 | | | | | | 投资咨询资格证号：Z0013724 | | | | | | 电话：17752110915 | | | | | | 邮箱：497976013@qq.com | | | | | | 报告日期：2025 26 | 年 | 5 | 月 | 日星期一 | 据此入市风险自负。 本报告中所有观点仅供参 的免责声明。 摘要： 行情回顾：上周螺纹 2510 合约下跌 1.74%。 *特别声明：本报告基于公开信息编制而成，报告对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作 任何保证。本文中的操作建议为研究人员利用相关公开信息的分析得出，仅供投资者参考， 考，请投资者务必阅读正文之后 基本面：据世界钢铁协会，4 月全球粗钢产量同比下降 0.3%，至 1.557 亿吨；其中，中国钢铁 ...

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - Last week, IF2506 closed at 3846.2 points, up 37.4 points or 0.01% from the previous week; IH2506 closed at 2693.0 points, down 2.2 points or 0.08%; IC2506 closed at 5561.8 points, down 40.0 points or 0.71%; IM2506 closed at 5872.0 points, down 61.8 points or 1.04% [3] 2. Fundamental Analysis - On May 20, 2025, the 1 - year LPR was 3.00% and the 5 - year - plus LPR was 3.50%, both down 10 basis points from the previous period [6] 3. Valuation Analysis - As of May 25, the PE of the CSI 500 Index was 28.53 times, the quantile was 65.1%, and the PB was 1.76 times; the PE of the SSE 300 Index was 12.55 times, the quantile was 52.55%, and the PB was 1.31 times; the PE of the SSE 50 Index was 10.9 times, the quantile was 73.9%, and the PB was 1.2 times; the PE of the CSI 1000 Index was 39.04 times, the quantile was 55.49%, and the PB was 2.03 times [8] 4. Other Data - The equity - bond spread is the difference between the stock market yield and the government bond yield. There are two formulas: one is (1/Index static PE) - 10 - year government bond yield; the other is 10 - year government bond yield - Index static dividend yield [17] 5. Core View - The A - share market's oscillation pattern has changed, showing weak characteristics. The market turnover has decreased, and sector rotation is frequent without sustainability. It is expected that the A - share market may shift from oscillation to weak oscillation. The CSI 500 and CSI 1000 Indexes may underperform the SSE 50 and SSE 300 Indexes. Investors are advised to be cautious, closely monitor macroeconomic data, policy trends, and external market fluctuations. They can consider lightly short - selling the CSI 1000 Index with the 5 - day moving average as the stop - loss point or selling small - cap stock indexes and buying large - cap stock indexes for arbitrage [20]

Group 1: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core View - The aluminum price is expected to show a fluctuating trend [1][6][43] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract AL2507 of Shanghai aluminum futures fluctuated between around 20,010 yuan/ton and a maximum of about 20,300 yuan/ton [3][10] - Last week, the LME aluminum futures price fluctuated between 2,430 - 2,497 US dollars/ton [14] 2. Spot Analysis - As of May 23, 2025, the average price of 1 electrolytic aluminum in the Yangtze River non - ferrous market was 20,400 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Shanghai, Foshan, Jinan, and Wuxi were 20,410 yuan/ton, 20,585 yuan/ton, 20,435 yuan/ton, and 20,400 yuan/ton respectively. As of the same date, the premium of electrolytic aluminum remained at around a premium of 80 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [17] 3. Supply and Demand Situation - In March 2025, the alumina supply - demand surplus was 30,000 tons, compared with a supply - demand gap of 110,000 tons in the previous month. From a seasonal perspective, the current supply - demand balance is at a relatively high level compared to the past 5 years. In March 2025, the cumulative supply - demand surplus of electrolytic aluminum was 277,200 tons. From a seasonal perspective, the current supply - demand balance is at an average level compared to the past 5 years [23] - As of April 2025, domestic imports of bauxite were 20,684,045.16 tons, an increase of 4,225,390.6 tons from the previous month [29] 4. Inventory Situation - As of May 23, 2025, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 141,289 tons, a decrease of 14,791 tons from the previous week. As of May 22, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 386,900 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants decreased slightly to 15.99% [33] - As of May 22, 2025, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 519,000 tons, a decrease of 36,000 tons from the previous day. The inventory in Shanghai was 36,000 tons, in Wuxi was 150,000 tons, in Hangzhou was 15,000 tons, in Foshan was 228,000 tons, in Tianjin was 21,000 tons, in Shenyang was 1,000 tons, in Gongyi was 56,000 tons, and in Chongqing was 7,000 tons [33] 5. Macroeconomic and Fundamental Analysis - The US Supreme Court made a ruling on a personnel appointment and removal appeal case of a federal independent agency, hinting that the status of Federal Reserve board members is special and will be specially protected from being dismissed by the president. The US bond yield curve steepened significantly, with the 30 - year Treasury yield breaking through 5%. The Japanese government bond yield continued to rise, and the 40 - year Treasury yield reached a new high. The global alumina supply - demand continued to be in surplus, and the electrolytic aluminum market also showed a supply - demand surplus. China's bauxite imports increased rapidly. The Shanghai aluminum inventory decreased rapidly and was at a low level in recent years. The LME aluminum inventory decreased slightly, and the proportion of cancelled warrants decreased slightly [5][42] 6. Future Outlook - The aluminum price is expected to show a fluctuating trend [6][43]