化工日报 | 2025-06-27 海外装置集中重启，EG震荡下跌 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4293元/吨（较前一交易日变动-30元/吨，幅度-0.69%），EG华东市场现货价 4360元/吨（较前一交易日变动-36元/吨，幅度-0.82%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）71元/吨（环比-6元/吨）。 近期沙特、伊朗、马来等海外EG装置集中重启，EG价格震荡下跌。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-72美元/吨（环比-4美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为73元/吨（环比-22 元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为62.2万吨（环比+0.6万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为50.6万吨（环比-3.1万吨）。上周主港实际到货总数7.7万吨，港口库存平稳；本周 华东主港计划到港总数6.2万吨，偏少，港口库存可能再度下降。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供增需减趋势。供应端，国内供应端陆续恢复，短期供需结构依旧表现良性去库，但是仓 单陆续注销流出后场内可流转现货将得到一定补充；海外供应方面，伊朗乙二醇停车装置陆续恢复中 ...

Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. Arbitrage: Neutral [4] Core View - The continuous weakening of the US dollar has led to generally strong commodity prices. A strike at a 344,000 - ton zinc smelter in Peru has affected production and boosted zinc prices. However, the spot market has become increasingly冷清, with a significant decline in spot premiums. The operating rate of zinc alloy has dropped significantly, and there may be a negative feedback from hidden inventory. Although the upward space is limited, the zinc price still maintains a strong trend. Consumption shows a marginal decline, and if social inventory continues to increase, it will exert significant downward pressure [3] Summary by Category Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is -$17.39/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price rose by 60 yuan/ton to 22,260 yuan/ton, with the premium dropping by 65 yuan/ton to 185 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price rose by 90 yuan/ton to 22,220 yuan/ton, with the premium dropping by 35 yuan/ton to 145 yuan/ton. SMM Tianjin zinc spot price rose by 50 yuan/ton to 22,190 yuan/ton, with the premium dropping by 75 yuan/ton to 115 yuan/ton [1] - **Futures**: On June 26, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,090 yuan/ton and closed at 22,240 yuan/ton, up 275 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 168,109 lots, an increase of 9,578 lots, and the open interest was 135,638 lots, an increase of 5,773 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 22,030 - 22,400 yuan/ton [1] - **Inventory**: As of June 26, 2025, the total SMM seven - region zinc ingot inventory was 79,500 tons, a decrease of 100 tons from last week. The LME zinc inventory was 119,850 tons, a decrease of 3,025 tons from the previous trading day [2] Market Analysis - The weakening US dollar and the strike at a Peruvian zinc smelter have pushed up zinc prices. However, the spot market is cold, with a significant decline in premiums. The operating rate of zinc alloy has dropped, and there may be a negative feedback from hidden inventory. TC remains stable, and overseas zinc ore shipments are increasing. Although the upward space is limited, the strong trend remains. There is still smelting profit, and the smelting enthusiasm is high, so the supply pressure remains. Consumption shows a marginal decline, and the increase in social inventory will bring downward pressure [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish. Arbitrage: Neutral [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - China's independently developed CPU, Loongson 3C6000, was released, featuring self - designed instruction system and high - level security certifications [1]. - The financial regulatory authority and the central bank jointly issued a plan to build a high - quality inclusive finance system in the next five years, and the third batch of consumer goods trade - in funds will be allocated in July 2025 [1]. - International oil prices declined significantly compared to the previous day, and egg prices recovered recently [2]. - The polyester operating rate decreased, and the sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities dropped seasonally and were at a near - three - year low [3][4]. - The number of domestic flights decreased cyclically, and the credit spread of the pharmaceutical and biological industry declined slightly [4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Middle - View Event Overview - **Production Industry**: China launched the domestically developed Loongson 3C6000 processor, which uses the self - designed LoongArch instruction system, meets various computing needs, and has obtained a high - level security certification [1]. - **Service Industry**: The financial regulatory authority and the central bank released a plan for the high - quality development of inclusive finance in the banking and insurance industries. The third batch of consumer goods trade - in funds will be allocated in July 2025, and a detailed usage plan will be formulated [1]. 3.2. Industry Overview - **Upstream** - **Energy**: International oil prices declined significantly compared to the previous day [2]. - **Agriculture**: Egg prices recovered recently [2]. - **Midstream** - **Chemical Industry**: The polyester operating rate decreased [3]. - **Downstream** - **Real Estate**: The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities dropped seasonally and were at a near - three - year low [4]. - **Service**: The number of domestic flights decreased cyclically [4]. 3.3. Market Pricing - The credit spread of the pharmaceutical and biological industry declined slightly recently [5]. 3.4. Industry Credit Spread Tracking - The credit spreads of different industries showed various trends. For example, the credit spread of the pharmaceutical and biological industry decreased from 56.96 last week to 53.47 this week [51]. 3.5. Key Industry Price Index Tracking - Different industries' price indices had different changes. For instance, the spot price of WTI crude oil was $64.9 per barrel on June 26, with a year - on - year decrease of 11.67% [52].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Market participants are speculating on the peak time of freight rates, with attention on the quotes for the second half of July to be released next week [1] - The supply and demand in the US route have both increased, with supply recovering rapidly and freight rates in the East and West US dropping from their highs [2] - There is a possibility that the freight rates in the first half of July have already reached their peak, and the August contract is in a game over the specific peak - time [5] - The strategy suggests a sideways movement for the main contract and a long - December, short - October arbitrage [8] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of June 27, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European route futures contracts was 90,944 lots, and the daily trading volume was 62,657 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2506, EC2508, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1317.40, 1160.20, 1885.90, 1759.90, 1325.60, and 1489.10 respectively [7] - The estimated final delivery settlement price of SCFIS is between 1890 - 1911 points, and ship delays are expected to drag down the SCFIS on June 30 [4] 2. Spot Price - For the Shanghai - Rotterdam route, different alliances have different price quotes. For example, Maersk's price in the second week of July decreased compared to the previous period, and some alliances' prices for the second half of July are higher than the first half [1] - For the Shanghai - US East and West routes, the freight rates have dropped significantly. Maersk's Shanghai - Los Angeles price in the first half of July decreased from 4296/5360 in the first half of June to 1478/2110, and the Shanghai - New York price decreased from 6410 dollars/FEU to 4100 dollars/FEU [2] 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - In July, the monthly average weekly capacity of the Shanghai - European base port route is 273,800 TEU, and in August, it is 269,900 TEU. There are 8 blank sailings in July [3] - As of June 20, 2025, 128 container ships have been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 1.018 million TEU. Among them, 38 ships of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU with a total capacity of 570,100 TEU and 6 ships of over 17,000 TEU with a total capacity of 142,400 TEU have been delivered [7] 4. Supply Chain - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has affected the oil price and shipping situation. The conflict between Israel and Iran has ended, and the risk of the Strait of Hormuz being closed has been basically eliminated, with a relatively small direct impact on container transportation [2][3] 5. Demand and European Economy - The demand for the China - US route has increased rapidly due to the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, and carriers are actively restoring capacity [2] - The relationship between the EU's industrial production index, import from China, consumer confidence index, retail sales, and China's export to the EU may affect the shipping demand [73 - 89]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PVC: Cautiously bearish [4] - Caustic soda: Neutral [4] 2. Core Views - PVC: After the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East eases, the PVC market returns to fundamentals. The supply - demand situation remains weak, with supply in excess and cost - side support lacking. Although exports are stable, domestic demand is weak, and social inventory has stopped falling and started to rise [3]. - Caustic soda: The supply pressure is expected to increase, downstream procurement is not active, and the inventory of liquid caustic soda has risen. The caustic soda market lacks positive drivers, and the comprehensive chlor - alkali profit still has room to compress [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PVC Market Price and Basis - Futures price: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4872 yuan/ton (+1). The East China basis is - 142 yuan/ton (-1), and the South China basis is - 42 yuan/ton (-1) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4730 yuan/ton (+0), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4830 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. Production Profit - Upstream: The semi - coke price is 575 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2880 yuan/ton (+0), and the calcium carbide profit is 130 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - PVC production: The gross profit of calcium carbide - based PVC production is - 494 yuan/ton (+18), the gross profit of ethylene - based PVC production is - 640 yuan/ton (-80), and the PVC export profit is - 0.6 dollars/ton (+0.4) [1]. Inventory and Operation Rate - Inventory: The in - plant PVC inventory is 40.2 tons (+0.5), and the social PVC inventory is 35.5 tons (+0.0) [1]. - Operation rate: The operation rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 80.43% (+0.81%), the operation rate of ethylene - based PVC is 67.38% (-1.85%), and the overall PVC operation rate is 76.81% (+0.07%) [1]. Downstream Orders - The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 64.8 tons (+1.0) [1]. Caustic Soda Market Price and Basis - Futures price: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2311 yuan/ton (+32), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 127 yuan/ton (-32) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 780 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1300 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. Production Profit - Single - product profit: The single - product profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1446 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - Comprehensive profit: The comprehensive chlor - alkali profit in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 823.3 yuan/ton (+40.0), the comprehensive chlor - alkali profit in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 111.28 yuan/ton (+0.00), and the comprehensive chlor - alkali profit in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1233.53 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. Inventory and Operation Rate - Inventory: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories is 39.04 tons (+2.39), and the inventory of flake caustic soda factories is 2.58 tons (-0.27) [2]. - Operation rate: The operation rate of caustic soda is 82.50% (+1.30%) [2]. Downstream Operation Rate - Alumina operation rate is 80.74% (-0.13%), the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 60.38% (-0.35%), and the operation rate of viscose staple fiber is 78.57% (-2.23%) [2].

苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差659元/吨（+77元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润400元/吨（+148元/吨），预期逐步压 缩。苯乙烯华东港口库存85000吨（+18700吨），苯乙烯华东商业库存66300吨（+21300吨），处于库存回建阶段。 苯乙烯开工率80.1%（+1.1%）。 下游硬胶方面：EPS生产利润205元/吨（-94元/吨），PS生产利润-545元/吨（-144元/吨），ABS生产利润213元/吨（-43 元/吨）。EPS开工率59.72%（+6.09%），PS开工率57.40%（-1.30%），ABS开工率66.00%（+2.03%），下游开工季节 性低位。 市场分析 苯乙烯日报 | 2025-06-27 下游EPS开工提升，EB基差再度走强 苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯港口库存17.10万吨（+1.80万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费169美元/吨（+8美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加 工费152美元/吨（+5美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差55.6美元/吨（+2.0美元/吨）。华东纯苯现货-M2价差-50元/吨（-15元/ 吨）。 风险 纯苯方面，国产开工压力偏高，下游CPL及苯胺开工 ...

利好不足，市场氛围平淡 液化石油气日报 | 2025-06-27 市场分析 单边：震荡 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 宏观政策、关税政策、港口装船延迟、炼厂装置检修超预期等。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 1、\t6月26日地区价格：山东市场，4600—4830；东北市场，4160—4310；华北市场，4600—4650；华东市场， 4530—4700；沿江市场，4750—4960；西北市场，4300—4350；华南市场，4700—4798。数据来源：卓创资讯 2、\t2025年7月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷596美元/吨，跌9美元/吨，丁烷540美元/吨，跌5美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4699元/吨，跌74元/吨，丁烷4258元/吨，跌42元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年7月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷590美元/吨，跌17美元/吨，丁烷540美元/吨，跌5美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4652元/吨，跌137元/吨，丁烷4258元/吨，跌42元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 随着中东局势缓和，能源板块波动率下滑，LP ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [3][5][7] 2. Report's Core View - The cotton market has a supply - tightening expectation, but new - year domestic production is expected to increase, and demand is weakening in the off - season. The sugar market has a complex situation with supply increase expectations in the new season and import pressure on domestic prices. The pulp market has a supply - abundant situation and weak downstream demand [2][4][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2509 contract was 13,720 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton (+0.55%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,957 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,020 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan/ton [1] - As of June 19, the US net signed 6,214 tons of upland cotton this year and shipped 42,000 tons, with 0 tons net - signed to China and 1,882 tons shipped [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the June USDA report cut 25/26 global cotton production and consumption, with a decrease in ending stocks. US cotton growing areas have more rainfall, but the seedling condition has worsened. Domestically, commercial inventory is de - stocking, but new - year planting area is stable or increasing, and demand is in the off - season [2] Strategy - Neutral. Uncertain tariff policies, weather - induced short - term strength, but new - year high - yield expectations and weakening demand create upward pressure [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2509 contract was 5,790 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton (+0.57%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,080 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,890 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [4] - Brazil will increase the ethanol blending ratio in gasoline from 27% to 30% and the biodiesel blending ratio in diesel from 14% to 15% from August 1, 2025 [4] Market Analysis - Zhengzhou sugar futures were strong. Brazilian new - season supply is expected to increase, but there may be a short - term rebound. Domestic sugar sales are fast, but import volume in July may suppress the rebound [4] Strategy - Neutral. Zhengzhou sugar follows the international market, and attention should be paid to Brazilian estimates and domestic import rhythm [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2509 contract was 5,066 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.08%) from the previous day. Spot: The price of Chilean silver star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,990 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,125 yuan/ton, unchanged [5] - The decline of imported wood pulp prices slowed down, and downstream paper mills' purchasing enthusiasm did not improve [5] Market Analysis - Pulp futures oscillated at a low level. The suspension of a delivery product caused market fluctuations, but the supply is abundant, and demand is in the off - season [6] Strategy - Neutral. The 09 contract is mainly priced by certain pulp types, and the market lacks positive drivers, so prices may stay at the bottom [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the methanol industry is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical conflict between Iran and Israel has eased, and the market is starting to price in the expectation of Iranian plant restart. Attention should be paid to the progress of Iranian plant restart. In reality, port inventories have increased this week, but the absolute level is still low. Against the backdrop of low inventories in Taicang, the paper cargo delivery location, short - covering before the paper cargo delivery in late June has led to a rapid strengthening of port basis and a deeper discount in the futures market. Regarding MTO, some MTO plants had maintenance intentions earlier, and attention should be paid to the implementation progress in July. In the inland region, the coal - based methanol production rate remains high, but the inland plant inventories have decreased, indicating certain resilience in inland demand. The regional price difference between the port and the inland has declined from its high level and is expected to compress further [3] Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - term Structure - Multiple charts show the basis of methanol in different regions (Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, Henan, Hebei, Guangdong) relative to the main futures contract, and the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [7][11][22] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Charts display the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the profit of MTO in East China (PP&EG type), the import price difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, FOB Rotterdam - CFR China [26][27][31] 3. Methanol Production and Inventory - Charts present the total port inventory of methanol, the MTO/P operating rate (including integrated plants), the sample inventory of inland plants, and the operating rate of methanol production in China (including integrated plants) [33][34][36] 4. Regional Price Differences - Charts show the price differences between regions such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, Lunan - Taicang - 100, Guangdong - East China - 180, and East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200 [38][47][49] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Charts illustrate the production gross margins of Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [53][59]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bullish [3] 2. Core View of the Report - As the peak consumption season for lead - acid batteries in the third quarter approaches and the supply of lead ore remains relatively tight, the possibility of a significant decline in lead prices is relatively low. There may even be a squeeze - out situation, so it is advisable to adopt a strategy of buying on dips for hedging [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On June 26, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$21.37/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,000 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 25 yuan/ton to - 35.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton, and the SMM Henan lead price also increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,000 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,100 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 50 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries increased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,275 yuan/ton, while the prices of waste white - shell and black - shell batteries remained unchanged at 10,150 yuan/ton and 10,500 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On June 26, 2025, the main Shanghai lead futures contract opened at 17,170 yuan/ton, closed at 17,225 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 52,643 lots, an increase of 16,421 lots from the previous day, and the position was 51,182 lots, an increase of 36,029 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 17,150 yuan/ton and 17,255 yuan/ton. In the night session, it opened at 17,225 yuan/ton and closed at 17,260 yuan/ton, up 0.32% from the afternoon close [1] Supply and Demand - According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price rose by 75 yuan/ton the previous day. In Henan, smelters offered prices at par with SMM1 lead, and traders offered discounts of 180 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead contracts 2507/2508. In Hunan, smelters offered discounts of 50 - 30 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead, and traders offered discounts of 220 - 200 yuan/ton to the 2508 contract. With the rise in lead prices, smelters actively offered for sale, and the mainstream production areas sold at discounts. Downstream enterprises only made purchases based on rigid demand, resulting in limited transactions. Some traders bought large - discount goods, and due to the large difference between futures and spot prices, some holders intended to deliver to the warehouse, and such transactions were fair [2] Inventory - On June 26, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 56,000 tons, an increase of 300 tons from the previous week. As of June 26, the LME lead inventory was 273,250 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The strategy is to be cautiously bullish. As the third - quarter peak consumption season for lead - acid batteries approaches and lead ore supply is tight, it is recommended to buy on dips for hedging. The operation range for the Pb2508 contract is 16,900 - 16,950 yuan/ton [3] - The option strategy is to sell put options [4]