农产品日报 | 2025-12-23 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2605合约14070元/吨，较前一日变动+55元/吨，幅度+0.39%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价14986元/吨，较前一日变动+7元/吨，现货基差CF05+916，较前一日变动-48；3128B棉全国均价15154元/吨， 较前一日变动+9元/吨，现货基差CF05+1084，较前一日变动-46。 近期市场资讯，据美国农业部（USDA）报告，12月12日至12月18日，美国2025/26年度棉花分级检验19.93万吨， 83.7%的皮棉达到ICE期棉交割要求。其中陆地棉检验量为19.34万吨，皮马棉为0.59万吨。至同期，累计分级检验 242.43万吨，82.7%的皮棉达到ICE期棉交割要求。其中陆地棉检验量为236.65万吨，皮马棉为5.78万吨。 市场分析 市场情绪有所好转，板块整体震荡回升 昨日郑棉期价震荡上涨。国际方面，本月USDA对于全球棉花供需数据调整不大，25/26年度全球棉花产需双减， 期末库存微幅增加。美棉产量继续小幅调增，经过两个月的调整后美棉累库压力明显加大。当前北半球新棉集中 上市，阶段 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The bond market oscillates between stable growth and easing expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to end - of - month policy signals. Influenced by the stock market, the Political Bureau meeting released a signal of loose money, the LPR remained unchanged, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation continued. Meanwhile, the increase in global trade uncertainty added to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows [1][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) had a month - on - month change of - 0.10% and a year - on - year change of 0.70%; China's PPI (monthly) had a month - on - month change of 0.10% and a year - on - year change of - 2.20% [9]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: The social financing scale was 440.07 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.35 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.54%; M2 year - on - year was 8.00%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.20% and a decline rate of 2.44%; the manufacturing PMI was 49.20%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.20% and a growth rate of 0.41% [10]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index was 98.26, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.48 and a decline rate of 0.49%; the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.0323, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.002 and a decline rate of 0.03%; SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.42, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 and a decline rate of 0.99%; DR007 was 1.43, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 and a decline rate of 0.53%; R007 was 1.51, with a day - on - day increase of 0.00 and a decline rate of 0.31%; the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.59, with a day - on - day increase of 0.00 and a decline rate of 0.14%; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, with a day - on - day increase of 0.00 and a decline rate of 0.14% [10]. 2. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - **Closing Prices and Fluctuations**: On December 22, 2025, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.46 yuan, 105.86 yuan, 107.98 yuan, and 111.98 yuan respectively. Their fluctuations were - 0.02%, - 0.06%, - 0.09%, and - 0.28% respectively [3]. - **Net Basis Spread Averages**: The net basis spread averages of TS, TF, T, and TL were 0.000 yuan, 0.037 yuan, 0.044 yuan, and 0.416 yuan respectively [3]. 3. Overview of the Money Market Fundamentals - **Fiscal Situation**: In November, the general public budget revenue slowed down year - on - year under the influence of a high base, but the annual revenue progress was still fast. The expenditure showed a narrowing decline, with more funds allocated to people's livelihood and investment. The government - funded revenue was still dragged down by the real estate market, but the accelerated issuance of special bonds drove the expenditure to turn positive year - on - year, supporting the broad - based fiscal situation [2]. - **Financial Situation**: The November financial data was generally weak. Credit was still supported by bills and short - term loans, and the medium - and long - term financing needs of residents and enterprises continued to decline. The social financing growth rate remained at 8.5%, mainly hedged by corporate bonds and off - balance - sheet financing. M1 and M2 growth rates declined simultaneously, indicating weak capital turnover and economic vitality in the real sector [2]. - **Central Bank Operations**: On December 22, 2025, the central bank conducted a 67.3 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [2]. - **Money Market Interest Rates**: The main term repurchase rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.272%, 1.417%, 1.616%, and 1.559% respectively, and the repurchase rates had recently declined [2]. 4. Spread Overview - The report provides various spread data, including the inter - period spread trends of treasury bond futures varieties and the spread between spot bond term spreads and futures cross - variety spreads [30][35][38]. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report presents data on the implied interest rate and treasury bond yield to maturity of the two - year treasury bond futures main contract, as well as the IRR and capital interest rate of the TS main contract, and the three - year base spread and net base spread trends of the TS main contract [37][41][46]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows data on the implied interest rate and treasury bond yield to maturity of the five - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR and capital interest rate of the TF main contract, and the three - year base spread and net base spread trends of the TF main contract [50][54]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report provides data on the implied yield and treasury bond yield to maturity of the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR and capital interest rate of the T main contract, and the three - year base spread and net base spread trends of the T main contract [57][58]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report offers data on the implied yield and treasury bond yield to maturity of the thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR and capital interest rate of the TL main contract, and the three - year base spread and net base spread trends of the TL main contract [64][68][71]. Strategies - **Unilateral Strategy**: With the decline of repurchase rates and the oscillation of treasury bond futures prices, the 2603 is neutral [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Pay attention to the decline of the 2603 basis spread [4]. - **Hedging Strategy**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

投资逻辑 周末委内局势持续发酵，特朗普扣押了另外两艘油轮，其中一艘油轮并不在制裁名单中，这说明美国执法进一步 强化，委内瑞拉原油发货量上周下降了20%，不过我们在此前的分析中提过，由于委内瑞拉制裁油的属性，即便委 内出口全部中断，其对合规油市场的影响非常有限，采购委内原油的主体不会切换到合规油采购，更多是转向其 他制裁油或者非原油原料，由于海外圣诞放假以及年初的指数基金调仓影响流动性，短期油价可能无序波动。 市场要闻与重要数据 1、 纽约商品交易所2026年2月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨1.49美元，收于每桶58.01美元，涨幅为2.64%；2026 年2月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨1.60美元，收于每桶62.07美元，涨幅为2.65%。SC原油主力合约收涨 2.01%，报441元/桶。（来源：Bloomberg） 2、 自特朗普政府通过锁定油轮来加强限制委内瑞拉原油收入的措施以来，已有十余艘油轮在委内瑞拉海岸装载 石油。根据航运情报公司克普勒的数据，自12月11日以来，约有14艘船只完成装载，其中至少6艘属于受制裁船舶。 大多数装载作业在巴霍格兰德和何塞港进行。数据显示，尽管紧张局势不断升级，但石油装 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The current price of lithium carbonate is mainly dominated by supply - side interference news, with over - speculation. The inventory depletion rate continues to slow down, there is a divergence between futures and spot markets, and the short - term increase is too large, so the risk of a callback should be警惕 [4] Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Analysis - On December 22, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2605 opened at 109,000 yuan/ton and closed at 114,380 yuan/ton, with a 3.98% change in the closing price compared to the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 1,007,441 lots, and the open interest was 671,889 lots (the previous trading day's open interest was 672,711 lots). The current basis is - 15,700 yuan/ton. The lithium carbonate warehouse receipts were 16,411 lots, a change of 900 lots from the previous trading day [1] Spot Market - According to SMM data, battery - grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 96,000 - 102,000 yuan/ton, a change of 1,350 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; industrial - grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 94,700 - 98,000 yuan/ton, a change of 1,300 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 1,385 US dollars/ton, a change of 50 US dollars/ton from the previous day. In November 2025, China's total lithium carbonate imports were about 22,055 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8% and a year - on - year increase of 15%, with an average import price of about 9,915 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 11% compared to the October average price. The import volume of spodumene reached 729,000 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 12%, equivalent to about 81,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE). Australia was the main source of the increase, with an import volume of 425,000 tons in that month, a significant month - on - month increase of 44% and accounting for 58% of the total import volume. The imports from Zimbabwe were 110,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 28%; the imports from Nigeria were 92,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16%. In addition, 73,000 tons of spodumene ore from Mali arrived at the port [2] Inventory - According to SMM statistics, the spot inventory is 110,425 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,044 tons. Among them, the smelter inventory is 18,090 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,071 tons; the downstream inventory is 41,485 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,253 tons; other inventories are 50,850 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,280 tons. The overall inventory in December is expected to continue the destocking pattern, but the destocking has slowed down, and attention should be paid to whether there is an inventory inflection point at the end of the month [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term range operation, pay attention to consumption and inventory inflection points, and sell hedging on rallies when the opportunity arises. Options, cross - period, cross - variety, and spot - futures strategies are not provided [4][5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the bean meal and corn sectors is neutral [3][6] 2. Core Views - **Bean Meal**: High import costs have led to low procurement of US soybeans, and US soybean exports are below expectations. South American soybeans are growing well, with strong expectations of a bumper harvest, causing US soybean prices to be weak. In China, the supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, with soybean and bean meal inventories at high levels. The price of the 05 contract is weak, following US soybean prices, but high import costs provide some support. Future focus should be on soybean imports and South American soybean growth [2] - **Corn**: On the supply side, farmers are reluctant to sell, resulting in a slow grain - selling pace. On the demand side, traders' inventory increases slowly, and their purchasing is cautious. Deep - processing plants' operations are stable, with slightly increased inventory and improved purchasing willingness. Feed enterprises mainly make just - in - time purchases and adopt a wait - and - see attitude. Current inventories are rising but still below historical levels. The future focus is on alternative grain auctions, and corn spot prices are expected to adjust [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bean Meal - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the bean meal 2605 contract was 2741 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (+0.22%) from the previous day. Spot prices in Tianjin, Jiangsu, and Guangdong were 3080 yuan/ton, 3020 yuan/ton, and 3030 yuan/ton respectively. As of December 17, Argentina's 2025/26 soybean sowing was 67.3% complete. In November, Argentina exported 218.9 million tons of soybeans, 56.2 million tons of soybean oil, and 271.4 million tons of bean meal [1] - **Market Analysis**: High import costs lead to low US soybean procurement and weak US soybean prices due to South American competition. In China, the supply - demand pattern is stable, with high inventories, and the 05 contract price is weak but supported by import costs [2] - **Strategy**: Neutral [3] 3.2 Corn - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of the corn 2601 contract was 2192 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The corn starch 2511 contract was 2497 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.20%). As of December 17, Argentina's 2025/26 corn planting area was 69.5% of the expected area. In November, Argentina exported 158.4 million tons of corn. As of December 18, Ukraine had harvested 94% of its planned grain area, with a total yield of 5657.6 million tons [3] - **Market Analysis**: Farmers' reluctance to sell slows the grain - selling pace. Traders are cautious in purchasing, while deep - processing plants' purchasing willingness has improved. Feed enterprises mainly make just - in - time purchases. Inventories are rising but below historical levels, and future focus is on alternative grain auctions [5] - **Strategy**: Neutral [6]

FICC日报 | 2025-12-23 通信板块领涨，股指走强 市场分析 关注十五五规划。宏观方面，国务院总理李强主持召开国务院"十五五"规划《纲要草案》编制工作领导小组会议， 深入研究《纲要草案》编制工作。李强指出，要谋划一批能够带动全局的重大工程、重大项目、重大载体，既为 未来发展积聚新动能、培育竞争力，又为当前扩大内需、稳定经济运行提供支撑。海外方面，美联储理事米兰表 示，如果美联储明年不继续降息，可能面临引发经济衰退的风险。他还表示，预计短期内不会出现经济下行，但 失业率上升应促使美联储官员继续降息。 若国内政策落地不及预期、海外货币政策超预期、地缘风险升级，股指有下行风险 股指收涨。现货市场，A股三大指数高开高走，沪指涨0.69%收于3917.36点，创业板指涨2.23%。行业方面，板块 指数涨多跌少，通信、电子、有色金属、商贸零售行业涨幅居前，传媒、银行、美容护理、轻工制造行业跌幅居 前。当日沪深两市成交额超1.8万亿元。海外方面，美国三大股指全线收涨，纳指涨0.52%报23428.83点。 期指活跃度下降。期货市场，基差方面，股指期货均为贴水。成交持仓方面，四大期指成交量和持仓量同步下降。 策略 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is neutral [4] Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils oscillated upward yesterday. High - frequency data shows strong export data from palm oil producing areas and a seasonal decline in production, leading to a rebound of palm oil from the bottom, which provides some support for the oil market [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract yesterday was 8,414.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +122 yuan and a change of +1.47%. The closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 7,772.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +60.00 yuan and a change of +0.78%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 8,864.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +120.00 yuan and a change of +1.37% [1] Spot Market - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,280.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +20.00 yuan and a change of +0.24%, and the spot basis was P05 - 134.00, with a month - on - month change of - 102.00 yuan. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,160.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +50.00 yuan/ton and a change of +0.62%, and the spot basis was Y05 + 388.00, with a month - on - month change of - 10.00 yuan. The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,330.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +110.00 yuan and a change of +1.19%, and the spot basis was OI05 + 466.00, with a month - on - month change of - 10.00 yuan [1] Market Information - China's soybean imports in November 2025 were 8,107,364.76 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.50% and a year - on - year increase of 13.32%. Brazil was the largest source of imports, with 5,852,856.71 tons imported in that month, a month - on - month decrease of 17.74% and a year - on - year increase of 48.55%. Argentina was the second - largest source, with 1,776,926.38 tons imported, a month - on - month increase of 13.39% and a year - on - year increase of 633.58% [2] - China's rapeseed imports in November 2025 were 1,998.30 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 99.72%. Kazakhstan was the largest source, with 1,731.60 tons imported. Russia was the second - largest source, with 266.70 tons imported, a year - on - year decrease of 89.20% [2] - As of the week ending December 4, the net sales of US soybeans for export in the 2025/2026 season were 1.552 million tons, compared with 1.106 million tons in the previous week [2] - Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach 180.4 million tons, up from the November estimate of 178.5 million tons. The previous year's production was 171.5 million tons [2] - From December 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 7.15% month - on - month compared with the same period last month [2] - China's palm oil imports in November 2025 were 334,052.37 tons, a month - on - month increase of 52.25% and a year - on - year increase of 97.79%. Indonesia was the largest source, with 262,783.98 tons imported, a month - on - month increase of 55.29% and a year - on - year increase of 118.78%. Malaysia was the second - largest source, with 67,263.96 tons imported, a month - on - month increase of 42.52% and a year - on - year increase of 38.22% [2]

Group 1: Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish. Arbitrage: Neutral [6] Group 2: Core View - The high - frequency consumption performance is slightly weak. The downstream in the spot market purchases as needed, social inventory stops falling, and the spot premium continues to strengthen. The import window for zinc ore is open, the domestic ore TC stops falling, and the smelters' enthusiasm for zinc ore procurement has decreased. The comprehensive smelting loss of smelters has expanded, with more overhauls in December, reducing supply pressure. The consumption side remains strong, and the fundamentals are still bullish. Zinc is currently undervalued, and there is optimism about future consumption with unchanged interest - rate cut expectations and unreflected re - inflation [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Directory Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is -$30.61/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 23,150 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a premium of 110 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 23,070 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, with a premium of 10 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 23,050 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, with a premium of 10 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures**: On December 22, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 23,075 yuan/ton, closed at 23,115 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 134,424 lots, and the open interest was 90,612 lots. The highest price was 23,150 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,980 yuan/ton [3] - **Inventory**: As of December 22, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 124,500 tons, up 0.23 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 99,250 tons, down 650 tons from the previous trading day [4]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-23 铝土矿价格承压下滑 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价21930元/吨，较上一交易日变化110元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-170元/ 吨，较上一交易日变化-20元/吨；中原A00铝价21770元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-50元/吨至-330元/ 吨；佛山A00铝价录21860元/吨，较上一交易日变化110元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-20元/吨至-240 元/吨。 铝期货方面：2025-12-22日沪铝主力合约开于22295元/吨，收于22220元/吨，较上一交易日变化180元/吨，最 高价达22365元/吨，最低价达到22095元/吨。全天交易日成交253929手，全天交易日持仓314299手。 库存方面，截止2025-12-22，SMM统计国内电解铝锭社会库存60.0万吨，较上一期变化2.2万吨，仓单库存76088 吨，较上一交易日变化-100吨，LME铝库存519600吨，较上一交易日变化0吨。 氧化铝现货价格：2025-12-22SMM氧化铝山西价格录得2730元/吨，山东价格录得2655元/吨，河南价格录得 2750元/吨， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The overall rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - Amid the resonance of interest rate cuts and geopolitical factors, precious metals continue to be strong. The current inflation - expectation game stage focuses on non - ferrous metals and precious metals with high certainty. While the market sentiment is still high, there are risks of policy expectation reversals at home and abroad. It is necessary to track the sentiment - driven market trends and also prepare risk plans for potential adjustments [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - **Policy Expectations in China**: The Politburo meeting on December 8 emphasized "continuing to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy" and "increasing counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment efforts". The Central Economic Work Conference on December 11 focused on boosting consumption and "anti - involution". Multiple ministries responded: the central bank will use reserve - requirement ratio and interest rate cuts; the NDRC will boost consumption and promote new growth drivers; the Ministry of Finance will use government bonds and issue ultra - long - term special treasury bonds. China's November foreign trade growth rebounded significantly (exports +5.9% and imports +1.9% year - on - year in US dollars), but the economic data was still under pressure, and the LPR remained unchanged for the seventh consecutive month (5 - year above LPR at 3.5%, 1 - year LPR at 3%) [1] - **US Federal Reserve**: The Fed's December meeting announced the purchase of $40 billion in short - term bonds in the next 30 days and a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut as expected. The median of the dot - plot maintains the expectation of one interest rate cut each in the next two years. The Fed may pause rate cuts again. The US employment and PMI data are weak. The slowdown of the Fed's rate - cut pace and the Bank of Japan's rate hike in December have led to a currently positive market driven by sentiment, but risks need to be watched [2] - **Bank of Japan**: The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points on December 19 as expected. The impact of the rate hike is limited as the proportion of overseas holders of Japanese government bonds is low and the net long position of the US dollar against the yen has not increased significantly. On December 22, Japanese long - term bonds tumbled [3] - **Commodity Market**: In the current inflation - expectation game, focus on non - ferrous metals and precious metals. The non - ferrous metal sector has high certainty due to long - term supply constraints. In the energy sector, some countries have submitted additional production - cut plans, and the EU will stop importing Russian natural gas by 2027. In the chemical sector, there is "anti - involution" space for some products. In the agricultural products sector, pay attention to China's procurement plan for US goods. For precious metals, look for buying opportunities on dips, but short - term silver risks have risen [3] Strategy - The overall strategy for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [4] To - do News - The market trended strongly with the Shanghai Composite Index back above 3900 and the ChiNext Index up more than 2%. Over 2900 stocks in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets rose, with trading volume exceeding 1.88 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.69%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.47%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.23% [5] - China's LPR remained unchanged for the seventh consecutive month (5 - year above LPR at 3.5%, 1 - year LPR at 3%) [5] - Japanese government bond yields rose, with the 2 - year yield at 1.105% (the highest since 1997), the 5 - year yield up 3.5 basis points to 1.52%, and the 20 - year yield up 3 basis points to 3% [5] - The US intercepted a tanker in international waters near Venezuela. The tanker was under US sanctions [5] - The US dollar against the yen fell about 20 points, and the Japanese finance minister warned speculators [5] - Spot gold hit a record high, spot silver rose more than 3% above $69 per ounce, LME copper prices neared a record high, and spot platinum rose above $2000 per ounce for the first time since 2008 [5]