新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-10-31 铜价暂陷震荡格局 需求端发力或仍需时日 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2025-10-30，沪铜主力合约开于 88780元/吨，收于 87960元/吨，较前一交易日收盘-0.85%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合 约开于 87380元/吨，收于 87270 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘下跌0.78%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日SMM 1#电解铜现货报价贴水130至升水20元/吨，均价贴水55元，较前日微涨5元，电铜价格区 间87800~88330元/吨。期铜早盘自89000元/吨高位回落，随后在88200元/吨附近窄幅整理。跨月价差维持Contango 结构，进口亏损近千元。市场采销情绪略有回暖，下游逢低刚需补货，两地情绪指数分别为2.87和3.15。盘初贴水 报价促进部分成交，好铜资源相对紧俏。预计明日下游备货意愿提升，但高铜价下持货商出货意愿不强，成交仍 将集中于低价资源。 重要资讯汇总： 国家主席习近平同美国总统特朗普举行会晤；习近平指出，两国经贸团队就重要经贸问题深入交换意见，形成了 解决问题的共识；双方团队可以继续本着平等、尊重、互惠的原则谈下去，不断压缩问题 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral, with a short-term focus on observation [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Neutral, with a short-term focus on observation [2] - Cross-variety: None [2] - Cross-period: None [2] - Spot-futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The landing of China-US trade negotiations has boosted the macro sentiment, but the weakening expectation of the crude oil fundamentals will continue to suppress the market. The fuel oil market has shown a pattern of "high-sulfur stronger than low-sulfur", which is now showing a marginal shift. The market structure of high-sulfur fuel oil has weakened, the local supply pressure of low-sulfur fuel oil has eased, and the price difference between high and low sulfur has rebounded slightly from the low level. The reduction of the "fentanyl tariff" by the US has temporarily dispelled concerns about the decline in trade and shipping demand, which is beneficial to both high and low sulfur fuel oils [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The night session of the main contract of the Shanghai Futures Exchange fuel oil futures closed up 0.04%, at 2,761 yuan/ton; the night session of the main contract of the INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 1.26%, at 3,287 yuan/ton. Crude oil prices are in a narrow range of fluctuations, providing limited guidance for the FU and LU disk directions [1] Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Adopt a neutral strategy and mainly observe in the short term [2] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Adopt a neutral strategy and mainly observe in the short term [2] - Cross-variety, cross-period, spot-futures, and options: No strategies are proposed [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report presents the trading data of various index options on October 30, 2025, including trading volume, PCR, and VIX, to reflect the market conditions of index options [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Option Trading Volume - On October 30, 2025, the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was 595,100 contracts; the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 300 ETF options was 748,100 contracts; the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 500 ETF options was 1,329,600 contracts; the trading volume of Shenzhen 100 ETF options was 51,400 contracts; the trading volume of ChiNext ETF options was 2,126,100 contracts; the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 index options was 40,000 contracts; the trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 300 index options was 108,300 contracts; the total trading volume of China Securities 1000 options was 283,400 contracts [1] - The detailed trading volume data of call and put options and the total trading volume of various index ETF options are also provided, such as the total trading volume of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was 873,400 contracts [20] Option PCR - The turnover PCR of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was reported at 0.61, with a month - on - month change of +0.08; the position PCR was reported at 0.96, with a month - on - month change of - 0.04. Similar data for other types of options are also presented [2][36] Option VIX - The VIX of Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 ETF options was reported at 17.11%, with a month - on - month change of - 0.25%. Similar data for other types of options are also provided, such as the VIX of ChiNext ETF options was reported at 34.91%, with a month - on - month change of +0.41% [3][51]

Report Investment Ratings - Apple: Neutral to bullish [5] - Red dates: Neutral [9] Core Views - The apple market shows a significant price divergence between high - quality and ordinary goods due to a low commodity rate this year. High - quality apples are expected to maintain stable and firm prices, while the overall market remains polarized [4][5]. - The red date market is in a critical transition period before the new - season red dates are harvested. The futures price has dropped significantly, and the market game has intensified. Attention should be paid to the acquisition progress and price changes [8][9]. Summary by Directory Apple Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the apple 2601 contract was 9,268 yuan/ton yesterday, up 70 yuan/ton or 0.76% from the previous day. - Spot: The price of 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji in Qixia, Shandong was 3.75 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day; the price of over 70 semi - commercial late Fuji in Luochuan, Shaanxi was 4.15 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day [2]. Recent Market Information - The quality of late Fuji in production areas is polarized. High - quality goods maintain stable and firm prices. The transaction volume in Shandong continues to increase, but it is still difficult for merchants to purchase high - quality goods. In Gansu, the overall market is stable, and the merchant warehousing is in the later stage. In Shaanxi, the ordering of high - quality goods is in the middle - later stage, and the price of ordinary goods is chaotic [3]. Market Analysis - Yesterday, the apple futures price rose slightly. The national apple spot market continues to feature "quality determines price". The price trends of different regions and qualities are further differentiated. The acquisition of high - quality goods by merchants is active, while that of ordinary goods is relatively cautious. The warehousing work in the western region is gradually carried out, and the volume of new - season late Fuji in Shandong is gradually increasing, but the overall progress is slow [4]. Strategy - Neutral to bullish. The volume of late Fuji will increase this week, but the commodity rate is low this year. Merchants are cautious about ordering ordinary goods, and the warehousing work progresses slowly. It is expected that the price of high - quality goods will remain stable and firm, with significant polarization [5]. Red Dates Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the red date 2601 contract was 10,225 yuan/ton yesterday, down 270 yuan/ton or 2.57% from the previous day. - Spot: The price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei was 9.50 yuan/kg, down 0.10 yuan/kg from the previous day [6]. Recent Market Information - The purchase of raw materials in production areas follows the principle of high - quality goods at high prices. The purchase in Hotan and Qiemo areas is coming to an end. The quality of goods in the market is uneven, and the price difference between new and old goods is large. The current market transaction is mainly for old goods. It is expected that the spot price will fluctuate slightly and stably in the short term [7]. Market Analysis - The red date futures price dropped significantly yesterday. The spot market is in a critical transition period before the new - season red dates are harvested. The acquisition in production areas has become cautious due to the futures price drop. The market is in a pattern of co - existence of new and old goods with price differentiation. The new - season jujube trees have over - exhausted problems, and a production reduction is a normal expectation. The quality of jujubes is better than that of the same period last year [8]. Strategy - Neutral. The red date futures price has dropped significantly recently, and the market game has intensified. The new - season red dates in the main production areas have not been harvested in large quantities. Attention should be paid to the acquisition progress and price changes [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][6] 2. Report Core View - The upward momentum of the soybean market has weakened, and prices may remain stable in the short term. The peanut market is waiting for the actions of oil mills, with new peanut supply stabilizing but overall volume still low [3][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean View - **Market Analysis** - Futures: The closing price of the soybeans 2511 contract was 4103.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan/ton (-0.24%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The edible soybean spot basis was A11 - 23, up 10 (+32.14%) from the previous day [1] - **Market News Summary** - Northeast new - season soybean prices are stable with a slight increase, but the purchasing enthusiasm of grain trading enterprises is low due to the expected import of US soybeans. There is a risk of price correction when domestic soybeans are concentratedly listed later [2] - Prices in multiple regions in Heilongjiang remained flat compared to the previous day [2] - **Price Trend** - The upward momentum of soybean prices in the Northeast production area has weakened, and prices may remain stable in the short term. For example, the purchase price of 39.5 - protein screened grains in Bei'an has remained stable after rising to 2 yuan/jin last week, and the price increase in Nehe faces resistance [3] - **Strategy** - Neutral [3] Peanut View - **Market Analysis** - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2511 contract was 7800.00 yuan/ton, down 22.00 yuan/ton (-0.28%) from the previous day [4] - Spot: The average peanut spot price was 7830.00 yuan/ton, up 70.00 yuan/ton (+0.90%) month - on - month. The spot basis was PK11 + 200.00, up 22.00 (+12.36%) month - on - month [4] - **Market News Summary** - The average price of general peanuts in the national peanut market is basically stable. Oil mills have strict procurement indicators, and the arrival volume is average [4] - **Price Trend** - Peanut futures closed slightly lower yesterday. The supply of new peanuts has stabilized, but the overall volume is still small. The market is waiting for the actions of oil mills [4][5] - **Strategy** - Neutral [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View The report presents the liquidity situation of various market sectors on October 30, 2025, including trading volume, holding amount, trading - holding ratio, and their changes compared to the previous trading day [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Plate Liquidity - The report shows the trading - holding ratio, trading volume change rate, holding volume, holding amount, trading volume, and trading amount of each plate [1][2][8]. II. Stock Index Plate - On October 30, 2025, the stock index plate had a trading volume of 864.17 billion yuan, a +31.56% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 1391.765 billion yuan, a +4.01% change; the trading - holding ratio was 61.70% [1]. III. Treasury Bond Plate - The trading volume of the treasury bond plate was 394.521 billion yuan, a - 24.23% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 880.162 billion yuan, a +0.69% change; the trading - holding ratio was 44.16% [1]. IV. Basic Metals and Precious Metals (Metal Plate) - The basic metals plate had a trading volume of 493.049 billion yuan, a +9.75% change; the holding amount was 607.827 billion yuan, a +1.13% change; the trading - holding ratio was 86.61%. The precious metals plate had a trading volume of 740.467 billion yuan, a +15.15% change; the holding amount was 429.094 billion yuan, a +0.59% change; the trading - holding ratio was 190.43% [1]. V. Energy and Chemical Plate - The trading volume of the energy and chemical plate was 406.43 billion yuan, a - 2.04% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 440.403 billion yuan, a +1.39% change; the trading - holding ratio was 78.24% [1]. VI. Agricultural Products Plate - The trading volume of the agricultural products plate was 300.223 billion yuan, a - 16.79% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 567.617 billion yuan, a +0.86% change; the trading - holding ratio was 48.89% [1]. VII. Black Building Materials Plate - The trading volume of the black building materials plate was 302.203 billion yuan, a +3.78% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 384.545 billion yuan, a +1.95% change; the trading - holding ratio was 79.95% [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The 10% reduction in fentanyl tariffs helps promote the recovery of Sino-US trade, drives the recovery of demand on the US route, and supports the prices of European routes to some extent [3]. - In the fourth quarter, shipping companies will adjust supply to keep freight rates at a high level for the next year's long - term agreement negotiation. The 12 - month contract is expected to first trade the price increase expectation, then the actual implementation of the price increase letter, and so on until delivery [4]. - The 2026 February contract may have a large expectation difference, but it is currently suppressed by the expectation of resumed voyages [5]. - The strategy for the 12 - month contract is to be volatile and bullish, and there is no arbitrage strategy for now [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Price - As of October 30, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 64,604.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 24,647.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts are 1583.00, 1175.90, 1403.30, 1487.50, 1132.50, and 1843.80 respectively [6]. 2. Spot Price - On October 24, 2025, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price is 1246 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price is 2153 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price is 3032 US dollars/FEU. On October 27, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) is 1312.71 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) is 1107.32 points [6]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - From October to December 2025, the weekly average capacities of China - European base ports are 324,100 TEU, 283,900 TEU, and 321,800 TEU respectively. There are 8 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in November and 5 TBNs in December [3]. - As of October 26, 2025, 215 container ships have been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 1.7618 million TEU. Among them, 66 ships of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU with a total of 995,500 TEU and 11 ships of over 17,000 TEU with a total of 236,320 TEU have been delivered [6]. 4. Supply Chain No specific summarized information provided. 5. Demand and European Economy No specific summarized information provided.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The port inventory pressure of methanol persists, and the winter inspection plan in Iran has not been announced yet. If Iran fails to conduct winter inspections, the port inventory pressure will be difficult to relieve. Inland inventory has further increased, with coal - based methanol production resuming in November. The demand for inland MTO has declined, but attention should be paid to the inventory preparation before the commissioning of the second - phase MTO of Lianhong at the end of the year [3][4] Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - term Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis and inter - term spreads, including methanol basis in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) against the main futures contract, and spreads between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., MA2601 - MA2605, MA2605 - MA2609, MA2609 - MA2601) [7][8][12] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol, the profit of East China MTO (PP&EG type), and import spreads such as the difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, as well as price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [7][27][34] 3. Methanol Production and Inventory - The report provides data on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated operations), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated operations). The port total inventory is 1506470 tons (-5730 tons), and the downstream MTO operating rate is 90.27% (-0.15%) [3][7][37] 4. Regional Price Differences - It shows various regional price differences, such as the difference between North Shandong and Northwest (-280), the difference between Taicang and Inner Mongolia (-550), and the difference between Taicang and Lunan (-250), etc. [3][7][41] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures illustrate the production gross margins of traditional downstream products, including Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [7][51][60] Strategy - Unilateral: None - Inter - term: Conduct a sell - high reverse spread for MA2601 - MA2605 - Cross - variety: None [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - India's anti-dumping tax policy on Chinese PVC products is a key variable determining China's future PVC export trends. The anti-dumping tax has weakened or eliminated the price advantage of Chinese products, putting significant pressure on exports. This has prompted China's PVC industry to make strategic choices, and a new pattern of diversified exports is emerging [2][3]. - Overseas PVC production capacity is shifting from traditional European production centers to regions with energy and market advantages, which will affect future global trade flows and competition patterns [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs India's Anti-dumping Tax History - India conducts anti-dumping investigations on China based on the Customs Tariff Act of 1975 and the Anti-dumping Rules of 1995. The anti-dumping investigation procedure includes application, filing, preliminary ruling, on - site review, hearing, price commitment, final ruling, etc. After the anti-dumping tax is levied, there are three types of review procedures: new exporter review, mid - term review, and sunset review [10]. - India has initiated multiple anti - dumping and safeguard measure investigations on Chinese PVC - related products, including PVC suspension resin, PVC paste resin, etc. Most cases have resulted in restrictive measures [3][11]. - For the anti - dumping investigation of PVC suspension resin initiated in 2024, the final ruling has been completed, and the market expects the result on whether the anti - dumping tax will be implemented in November 2025 [3][19]. PVC Export Structure - Since 2025, due to the resurgence of India's anti - dumping tax investigation in 2024, there has been a rush to export, and China's PVC exports this year are higher than the same period. India is the main destination for China's PVC exports. If India imposes anti - dumping taxes on Chinese PVC, it will affect China's export structure [22]. - From 2014 to 2022, during the first anti - dumping tax collection period, the proportion of China's PVC exports to India decreased. After the expiration of the tax in 2022, the proportion rebounded. India's PVC demand is expected to have high growth potential [26]. PVC Export Trend Changes - After the anti - dumping tax is imposed, Chinese PVC export prices may not maintain an advantage in the Indian market. However, some Chinese enterprises still have a slight price advantage [29]. - In recent years, China's PVC exports to Southeast Asia, Africa, Central Asia, and the Middle East have increased significantly. Although India's anti - dumping tax may cause a short - term decline in exports, in the long run, global market re - layout may alleviate the domestic PVC supply - demand situation [32]. Overview of Overseas Production Capacity - In 2025, some European PVC enterprises announced shutdown plans due to high energy costs and weak demand, with a total expected exit capacity of 410,000 tons. The new production capacity in 2025 is mainly concentrated in the Middle East and Southeast Asia, and India will be the core area for capacity expansion in 2026 [4][52]. - Globally, PVC production capacity is shifting from high - cost regions to regions with energy and market advantages, while China's new production capacity is expanding on a large scale based on resource advantages [4][59].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Pure benzene port inventory has slightly declined. Low downstream开工率 drags down pure benzene demand. During the styrene maintenance period, caprolactam further reduces its load, and only aniline开工率 slightly rebounds. The port basis of pure benzene continues to be weak. Due to the impact of previous sanctions, some refineries reduced their loads in the short - term, and the domestic开工率 of pure benzene has rebounded from a low level this week [3]. - In the short - term, with ongoing maintenance, styrene port inventory has not been reduced, and there is still inventory pressure at the port. The commissioning of new plants such as Jihua and Guangxi Petrochemical has an impact. Downstream提货 performance is average. The开工率 of ABS is consolidating at a low level, and the开工率 of PS has further decreased. The finished product inventory pressure of the three major hard rubbers is still high, and the inventory pressure at the EB port persists. Further loss - induced production cuts are awaited [3]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - Period Spreads - Figures related to pure benzene basis and inter - period spreads include the pure benzene main contract basis, pure benzene spot - M2 paper cargo spread, and pure benzene continuous first contract - continuous third contract spread [8][11]. - Figures related to EB basis and inter - period spreads include the EB main contract basis and the EB continuous first contract - continuous third contract spread [15][16]. II. Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Production profit and spread figures include naphtha processing fee, pure benzene FOB Korea - naphtha CFR Japan, styrene non - integrated plant production profit, pure benzene FOB US Gulf - pure benzene FOB Korea, pure benzene FOB US Gulf - CFR China, pure benzene FOB Rotterdam - CFR China, pure benzene import profit, styrene import profit, styrene FOB US Gulf - CFR China, and styrene FOB Rotterdam - CFR China [19][22][27][30][36]. III. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - For pure benzene, figures show the East China port inventory and the operating rate [38]. - For styrene, figures show the East China port inventory, commercial inventory, factory inventory, and the operating rate [40][43]. IV. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - Figures include the operating rates and production profits of EPS, PS, and ABS [49][51][54]. V. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - Figures cover the operating rates and production profits of caprolactam, phenol - ketone, aniline, adipic acid, PA6 regular spinning bright, nylon filament, bisphenol A, PC, epoxy resin E - 51, pure MDI, and polymer MDI [60][66][75][76][86][87].