Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pig industry is cautiously bearish [3] - The investment rating for the egg industry is also cautiously bearish [6] Group 2: Report's Core View - For the pig market, although the current second - fattening sentiment is high, it doesn't change the total supply in the market and will increase future supply. The short - term price is firm due to second - fattening, but the long - term supply pressure remains large, and changes in second - fattening and production capacity need attention [2] - For the egg market, the overall demand is weak. Although the egg sales have accelerated this week, it's short - lived. There is inventory accumulation in the production area, and the demand is at a normal off - season level. The pattern of strong supply and weak demand is hard to change in the short term [5][6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2601 contract yesterday was 11,880 yuan/ton, a change of - 305.00 yuan/ton (- 2.50%) from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary live pigs was 12.49 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.14 yuan/kg; in Jiangsu, it was 12.71 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.05 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 12.30 yuan/kg, a change of - 0.03 yuan/kg. The national average wholesale price of pork in agricultural product markets was 17.96 yuan/kg, a 0.4% decrease from yesterday [1] Market Analysis - Second - fattening is mainly undertaken by retail investors who prefer to raise large fat pigs, leading to a prominent problem of postponed pig supply. The short - term price is firm, but the long - term supply - demand pattern remains unchanged [2] Strategy - The strategy is cautiously bearish [3] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2512 contract yesterday was 3157 yuan/500 kilograms, a change of - 8.00 yuan (- 0.25%) from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg price was 2.89 yuan/jin; in Shandong, it was 2.85 yuan/jin; in Hebei, it was 2.73 yuan/jin, a change of + 0.06 yuan/jin. On October 30, 2025, the national production - link inventory was 1.11 days, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.18 days, both unchanged from yesterday [3][4] Market Analysis - The overall demand is weak. The egg sales have accelerated this week but briefly. There is inventory accumulation in the production area, and the terminal purchases on - demand. There is no short - term positive boost, and each link focuses on digesting previous inventory [5] Strategy - The strategy is cautiously bearish as the number of laying hens in production remains high and is difficult to reduce quickly in the short term, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand is hard to change [6]

Industry Overview Production and Service Industries - In the production industry, through the Kuala Lumpur consultations between China and the US, the US will cancel the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, continue to suspend the 24% reciprocal tariff on Chinese goods for one year, suspend the implementation of the 50% penetrative export control rule announced on September 29 for one year, and suspend the implementation of the Section 301 investigation measures on China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries for one year. China has also adjusted its counter - measures accordingly. Consensus was also reached on fentanyl anti - drug cooperation, expanding agricultural product trade, and handling individual cases of relevant enterprises. The results of the Madrid economic and trade consultations were further confirmed, with the US making positive commitments in investment and other fields, and China will properly resolve the TikTok - related issue with the US [1] - In the service industry, 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instruments have been fully invested, expected to drive total project investment of over 7 trillion yuan. The instruments mainly support areas such as technological innovation, expanding consumption, and stabilizing foreign trade. The new policy - based financial instruments of the China Development Bank, the Export - Import Bank of China, and the Agricultural Development Bank of China support 1054, over 360, and 881 projects respectively, and are expected to drive total project investment of 3.85 trillion yuan, over 1.3 trillion yuan, and over 1.93 trillion yuan respectively [1] Upstream, Mid - stream, and Downstream - **Upstream**: Black - glass prices have dropped significantly; in agriculture, palm oil prices have fallen while pork prices have risen slightly; in the energy sector, liquefied natural gas prices have continued to rise [2] - **Mid - stream**: In the chemical industry, PX开工率 has remained stable; in infrastructure, the asphalt开工率 has declined [2] - **Downstream**: In the real estate sector, the sales of commercial housing in second - and third - tier cities have seasonally declined; in the service sector, the number of domestic flights has increased [2] Price Indexes - **Agriculture**: On October 30, the spot price of corn was 2148.6 yuan/ton, down 1.18% year - on - year; the spot price of eggs was 6.2 yuan/kg, up 1.15% year - on - year; the spot price of palm oil was 8850.0 yuan/ton, down 2.81% year - on - year; the spot price of cotton was 14846.5 yuan/ton, up 0.27% year - on - year; the average wholesale price of pork was 18.0 yuan/kg, up 1.30% year - on - year [36] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: On October 29, the spot price of copper was 87773.3 yuan/ton, up 3.24% year - on - year; the spot price of zinc was 22272.0 yuan/ton, up 1.76% year - on - year; the spot price of aluminum was 21176.7 yuan/ton, up 1.11% year - on - year; the spot price of nickel was 122116.7 yuan/ton, down 0.20% year - on - year [36] - **Ferrous Metals**: On October 29, the spot price of iron ore was 810.0 yuan/ton, up 1.94% year - on - year; the spot price of wire rod was 3340.0 yuan/ton, up 1.29% year - on - year; the spot price of glass was 13.9 yuan/square meter, down 5.33% year - on - year [36] - **Non - metals**: On October 30, the spot price of natural rubber was 14958.3 yuan/ton, up 1.07% year - on - year; the China Plastic City price index was 778.3, down 0.03% year - on - year [36] - **Energy**: On October 30, the spot price of WTI crude oil was 60.5 US dollars/barrel, up 3.38% year - on - year; the spot price of Brent crude oil was 64.9 US dollars/barrel, up 3.72% year - on - year; the spot price of liquefied natural gas was 4338.0 yuan/ton, up 8.72% year - on - year; the coal price was 809.0 yuan/ton, up 0.50% year - on - year [36] - **Chemical Industry**: On October 29, the spot price of PTA was 4554.8 yuan/ton, up 3.15% year - on - year; the spot price of polyethylene was 7135.0 yuan/ton, up 0.82% year - on - year; the spot price of urea was 1627.5 yuan/ton, up 3.50% year - on - year; the spot price of soda ash was 1210.0 yuan/ton, up 0.53% year - on - year [36] - **Real Estate**: On October 30, the cement price index nationwide was 137.2, up 2.16% year - on - year; the building materials composite index was up 1.53% year - on - year; the national concrete price index was 91.0, down 0.19% year - on - year [36]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] Report Core View - In the long - term, with supply constraints, the high industry profit is not a factor limiting the rise of aluminum prices. Short - term price increases require resonance of positive macro and strong micro - consumption. In the current off - season, there is a small increase in social inventory, and long - term long opportunities can be considered after short - term pullbacks. For alumina, the current price is undervalued, but the supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the replenishment behavior of electrolytic aluminum plants is hard to sustain. [6][7][8] Summary According to Related Catalogs Aluminum Spot - On October 30, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 21,200 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 10 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the price of Central China A00 aluminum was 21,060 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 150 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 21,070 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 135 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. [1] Aluminum Futures - On October 30, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 21,290 yuan/ton, closed at 21,245 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a high of 21,360 yuan/ton and a low of 21,210 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 168,592 lots, and the open interest was 275,967 lots. [2] Aluminum Inventory - As of October 30, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 619,000 tons, down 7,000 tons from the previous period; the warrant inventory was 66,418 tons, up 374 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 459,525 tons, down 3,225 tons from the previous trading day. [2] Alumina Spot Price - On October 30, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,845 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,790 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,865 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,015 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,025 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 319 US dollars/ton. [2] Alumina Futures - On October 30, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,875 yuan/ton, closed at 2,816 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, a change of - 0.98%, with a high of 2,879 yuan/ton and a low of 2,803 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 436,078 lots, and the open interest was 392,755 lots. [2] Aluminum Alloy Price - On October 30, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 16,800 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 17,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. [3] Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 73,500 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 58,700 tons. [4] Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 20,905 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 5 yuan/ton. [5] Market Analysis - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The smelting profit has expanded to 4,000 yuan/ton in the off - season. In the long - term, with supply constraints, high profit is not a limiting factor for price increase. In the short - term, price increase needs positive macro and strong consumption. In the current off - season, social inventory has a small increase, and it is expected to accumulate slightly in July. Even after accumulation, the inventory is still at a historical low level, and delivery risks should be long - term vigilant. [6] - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina is low, and electrolytic aluminum plants are actively purchasing forward alumina due to rich profits and winter storage demand. The market activity has increased, but the supply - demand surplus pattern remains. The cost of the northern ore supply is still tight, and the import ore is slightly declining. The reduction of ore price does not improve the alumina smelting loss, and the ex - factory price is under greater pressure. [7][8] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Bullish on aluminum with caution, neutral on alumina, and bullish on aluminum alloy with caution. [9] - **Arbitrage**: Long the near - term and short the far - term in Shanghai aluminum. [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Affected by the central bank's restart of Treasury bond trading and the continued expectation of a Fed rate cut, most Treasury bond futures closed higher the previous day. Overall, the increasing global trade uncertainty adds to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. The bond market fluctuates between the expectations of stable growth and monetary easing. Short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's monthly CPI had a 0.10% month - on - month change and a - 0.30% year - on - year change; monthly PPI had a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 2.30% year - on - year change [9]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: Social financing scale was 437.08 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 3.42 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.79%; M2 year - on - year was 8.40%, down 0.40% from the previous period with a decline rate of 4.55%; manufacturing PMI was 49.80%, up 0.40% from the previous period with a growth rate of 0.81% [10]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index was 99.52, up 0.39 with a growth rate of 0.39%; the offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.1000, up 0.003 with a growth rate of 0.04%; SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.48, down 0.03 with a decline rate of 1.85%; DR007 was 1.50, down 0.04 with a decline rate of 2.81%; R007 was 1.53, up 0.02 with a growth rate of 1.49%; the 3 - month yield of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA) was 1.58, up 0.00 with a decline rate of 0.30%; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, up 0.00 with a decline rate of 0.30% [11]. 2. Overview of Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market - The report provides multiple charts including the closing price trend of Treasury bond futures' main continuous contracts, the price increases and decreases of Treasury bond futures varieties, the precipitation of funds in Treasury bond futures varieties, the position - holding ratio, the net position - holding ratio of the top 20, the long - short position - holding ratio of the top 20, the spread between China Development Bank bonds and Treasury bonds, and the issuance of Treasury bonds [13][16][18][22]. 3. Overview of the Money Market's Capital Situation - The report includes charts on the Shibor interest rate trend, the maturity yield trend of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA), the transaction statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, the issuance of local bonds, the inter - term spread trend of Treasury bond futures varieties, and the spread between the spot bond's term spread and the futures' cross - variety spread (4*TS - T) [27][28][32]. 4. Spread Overview - The report presents charts about the spread between the spot bond's term spread and the futures' cross - variety spread, such as (2*TS - TF), (2*TF - T), (3*T - TL), and (2*TS - 3*TF + T) [36][37][40]. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report provides charts on the implied interest rate and the Treasury bond's maturity yield of the two - year Treasury bond futures' main contract, the IRR of the TS main contract and the capital interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the TS main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TS main contract [39][42][49]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report includes charts on the implied interest rate and the Treasury bond's maturity yield of the five - year Treasury bond futures' main contract, the IRR of the TF main contract and the capital interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the TF main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TF main contract [51][56]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report offers charts on the implied yield and the Treasury bond's maturity yield of the ten - year Treasury bond futures' main contract, the IRR of the T main contract and the capital interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the T main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the T main contract [58][59]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report provides charts on the implied yield and the Treasury bond's maturity yield of the thirty - year Treasury bond futures' main contract, the IRR of the TL main contract and the capital interest rate, the three - year basis trend of the TL main contract, and the three - year net basis trend of the TL main contract [65][71]. 9. Strategies - **Unilateral Strategy**: As the repurchase interest rate declines, a cautious and bullish stance is recommended for the 2512 contract [4]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Attention should be paid to the basis rebound of the 2512 contract [5]. - **Hedging Strategy**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - position holders can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Absolute price: Neutral [3] - Option strategy: Hold off [4] Core View - The domestic mine supply remains relatively tight, and smelters have a low willingness to purchase high-silver mines. The market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand. Since the National Day, downstream demand has been better than expected, leading to a significant reduction in domestic inventories. However, with the overall adjustment of the non-ferrous sector, the lead price may temporarily enter a volatile pattern [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On October 30, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$35.12/ton. The SMM 1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 17,200 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at 30 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price remained unchanged at 17,275 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price remained unchanged at 17,225 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium remained unchanged at 17,275 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton, the waste electric vehicle battery price remained unchanged at 10,025 yuan/ton, the waste white shell price remained unchanged at 10,150 yuan/ton, and the waste black shell price remained unchanged at 10,425 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On October 30, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,360 yuan/ton and closed at 17,350 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 39,452 lots, down 6,873 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 69,287 lots, down 4,231 lots from the previous trading day. The price fluctuated during the day, reaching a high of 17,405 yuan/ton and a low of 17,335 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,355 yuan/ton and closed at 17,375 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the afternoon close [2] Inventory - On October 30, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 30,000 tons, down 50 tons from the same period last week. As of October 30, the LME lead inventory was 224,175 tons, down 700 tons from the previous trading day [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2. Core View - The smelters' strong demand for zinc ore may lead to a further decline in TC. Although the import loss of imported ore is still significant, the imported ore TC has started to fall. The domestic supply pressure remains, but if the TC continues to decline, the supply - side pressure is expected to ease. The export window is fully open, but the uncertainty of LME far - month contract delivery restrains export enthusiasm, and the overseas inventory is difficult to show a trend increase. Micro - data is turning from bearish to bullish, and the macro environment remains positive, but the sustainability of zinc consumption needs to be tested [4]. 3. Summary by Category Important Data - **Spot**: LME zinc spot premium is $132.96/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,250 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of - 40 yuan/ton. SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,260 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 90 yuan/ton. Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,230 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton, with a spot premium of - 60 yuan/ton [1]. - **Futures**: On October 30, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,490 yuan/ton, closed at 22,365 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 111,090 lots, and the open interest was 119,758 lots. The highest price was 22,540 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,325 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory**: As of October 30, 2025, the total inventory of SMM seven - region zinc ingots was 161,500 tons, down 2,000 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 34,900 tons, down 300 tons from the previous trading day [3].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Glass: Oscillating weakly [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2] - Silicomanganese: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [4] 2. Core Views - The macro - expected situation has been realized, and the market is under short - term pressure. The supply - demand contradictions in glass, soda ash, and double - silicon sectors continue to affect the prices of related products [1][3] 3. Market Analysis and Strategy by Product Glass - **Market Analysis**: The glass futures market dropped significantly yesterday. Downstream procurement is cautious, mainly for刚需. The开工 rate of float glass enterprises this week was 80.63%, unchanged from last week, and the factory inventory was 65.79 million heavy boxes, a 1.24% decrease from last week, showing obvious inventory reduction. However, the supply - demand contradiction is still large, the inventory pressure is still at a historically high level, and the futures - cash merchants are squeezing the market share of glass factories. With the end of the consumption peak season and the potential for some production lines to resume production, the glass price is expected to remain under pressure [1] - **Strategy**: Oscillating weakly [2] Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: The soda ash futures market showed a weak oscillating trend yesterday. Downstream procurement is mainly for刚需 replenishment. This week, the soda ash production was 757,600 tons, a 2.29% increase from last week, and the inventory was 1.702 million tons, a 0.01% decrease from last week. The supply - demand contradiction remains, with the supply expected to increase further, the刚需 showing resilience, and the speculative demand weakening. The inventory reduction pressure will persist throughout the year [1] - **Strategy**: Oscillating weakly [2] Silicomanganese - **Market Analysis**: The main contract of silicomanganese futures first rose and then fell, closing at 5,842 yuan/ton yesterday. The spot market was stable, and the alloy cost support was fair. The price of 6517 in the northern market was 5,600 - 5,680 yuan/ton, and in the southern market was 5,650 - 5,700 yuan/ton. Although silicomanganese enterprises are facing increasing losses, the production remains high, and the inventory reduction pressure is large. Recently, coking coal has driven the upward movement of the black sector, strengthening the bottom support of silicomanganese. It is expected that the silicomanganese price will continue to fluctuate with the sector [3] - **Strategy**: Oscillating [4] Ferrosilicon - **Market Analysis**: The main contract of ferrosilicon futures tried to rise in the morning but faced pressure and then declined in the afternoon under the influence of the black sector. The spot market sentiment was flat, and most operations were cautious. The cash - inclusive ex - factory price of 72 - grade ferrosilicon in the main production areas was 5,150 - 5,200 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 - grade ferrosilicon was 5,700 - 5,800 yuan/ton. Currently, ferrosilicon enterprises have high production and high inventory, and the demand is expected to weaken. Although enterprises are continuously losing money, it has not effectively curbed production, and the weak fundamental situation is difficult to reverse. It is expected that the short - term ferrosilicon price will follow the sector [3] - **Strategy**: Oscillating [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating Core View of the Report - The outcome of the Sino-US talks met market expectations, had no significant impact on oil prices, and did not reach a comprehensive trade agreement. It only reached agreements on issues such as fentanyl, tariff extensions, and soybean purchases, without addressing core issues like Russian oil procurement and US crude oil procurement, thus having limited impact on oil prices [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 9 cents to $60.57 per barrel, a 0.15% increase; the price of Brent crude oil futures for December delivery rose 8 cents to $65.00 per barrel, a 0.12% increase. The main SC crude oil contract closed down 0.24% at 461 yuan per barrel [1] - Saudi Arabia's fiscal deficit in the third quarter widened to 88.5 billion riyals ($23.6 billion), a 160% increase from the previous quarter. Oil revenue decreased by 0.1% to 150.8 billion riyals due to OPEC's phased removal of production cuts. Total revenue decreased by about 13% year-on-year to 269.9 billion riyals, with 119.1 billion riyals from non-oil industries. Public spending increased by 6% year-on-year to 358.4 billion riyals [1] - Russia's second-largest oil producer, Lukoil, agreed to sell most of its international assets to Swiss commodity trader Gunvor after being sanctioned by the US. The transaction will cover most of Lukoil's overseas operations with about 15,000 employees [1] - Ukrainian security officials said that Ukraine attacked two oil storage facilities in Russian-occupied Crimea [1] - ANZ Bank expects OPEC+ to approve an additional supply increase of 137,000 barrels per day in December due to increased risks to Russian supply. The bank raised its 0 - 3 month crude oil price target to $70 per barrel [1] - India's HMEL company has suspended further purchases of Russian crude oil [1] Investment Logic - The previous day's meeting between the two heads of state basically met market expectations, had no unexpected surprises, did not reach a comprehensive trade agreement, and had limited impact on oil prices [2] Strategy - Oil prices will fluctuate within a short - term range and a medium - term short position should be considered [3]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The nickel market is facing a situation of high inventory and oversupply, and nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The stainless - steel market is also under the dual pressure of high inventory and weak demand, and its price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On October 30, 2025, the main contract 2512 of Shanghai nickel opened at 121,770 yuan/ton and closed at 120,980 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.03% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 99,113 (- 10,149) lots, and the open interest was 107,897 (- 1,789) lots. The main contract showed a volatile downward trend. The Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut and Powell's cautious statement on the December rate cut led to a short - term rebound of the US dollar, pressuring commodities, and Shanghai nickel closed slightly lower in the late session [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The mine side still has a strong attitude of holding prices, and the overall nickel ore price remains firm. The CIF tender price of 1.4% nickel ore from Indonesia's purchases in the Philippines was 49.5 - 50.5, down 1 dollar month - on - month. The FOB tender price of 1.4% nickel ore from the northern Philippine mine LNL was 43.5, unchanged month - on - month. The Surigao mining area in the Philippines is about to enter the rainy season, and the shipping is coming to an end; the northern mines are in the tender and shipping stage. The price of downstream nickel iron is under pressure, and iron plants are not willing to accept the high price of raw material nickel ore. The domestic trade benchmark price in Indonesia in November (phase one) is expected to fall by 0.12 - 0.18 dollars, and the current mainstream premium is + 26, with the premium range mostly between + 25 - 27 [1]. - **Spot**: The sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 123,700 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was dull, and the spot premiums and discounts of each brand remained stable. Among them, the premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 50 yuan/ton to 2,450 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 31,532 (99) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 251,640 (- 66) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - The nickel market has high inventory and the oversupply pattern remains unchanged. It is expected that nickel prices will remain in a low - level oscillation. The recommended strategy is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side, and no operations are recommended for the inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On October 30, 2025, the main contract 2512 of stainless steel opened at 12,805 yuan/ton and closed at 12,725 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 105,051 (+ 11,210) lots, and the open interest was 89,093 (- 4,171) lots. Similar to the trend of Shanghai nickel, the main contract showed a volatile weakening trend. Overseas, the rebound of the US dollar pressured commodities; domestically, although the adjustment of real - estate policies released certain positive signals, the demand transmission of stainless steel in the real - estate field was lagging, and it was difficult to boost market confidence in the short term [3]. - **Spot**: The price was basically stable, and trading was still difficult. The price of stainless steel in the Wuxi market was 13,000 (+ 100) yuan/ton, and that in the Foshan market was 13,000 (+ 50) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 250 to 550 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron remained unchanged at 924.5 yuan/nickel point [3]. - **Strategy** - In the short term, stainless steel will still face the dual pressure of high inventory and weak demand, and it is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation. The single - side strategy is neutral, and no operations are recommended for the inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [5].

FICC日报 | 2025-10-31 中美经贸团队达成三方面成果共识 市场分析 "十五五"规划建议稿发布，市场情绪受提振。党的二十届四中全会于10月20日至23日在京召开，全会提出了"十五 五"时期经济社会发展的主要目标，并发布会议公报。公报指出"十五五"时期的主要目标，即：高质量发展取得显 著成效，科技自立自强水平大幅提高，进一步全面深化改革取得新突破，社会文明程度明显提升，人民生活品质 不断提高，美丽中国建设取得新的重大进展，国家安全屏障更加巩固。公报还提到，到2035年实现我国经济实力、 科技实力、国防实力、综合国力和国际影响力大幅跃升，人均国内生产总值达到中等发达国家水平。按人均GDP 目标推算，十五五期间的平均GDP增速或有望维持在5%左右，较强的提振了当下市场情绪和经济预期。5000亿元 新型政策性金融工具完成投放，预计拉动项目总投资超7万亿元。10月28日，"十五五"规划建议全文发布，将采取 超常规措施，全链条推动重点领域关键核心技术攻关取得决定性突破、全面实施"人工智能+"行动、大力提振消费。 10月26日，央行在国务院关于金融工作情况的报告中提出：健全稳市机制，落实落细适度宽松的货币政策， ...