1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [3][5][7] 2. Report's Core View - The cotton market has a supply - tightening expectation, but new - year domestic production is expected to increase, and demand is weakening in the off - season. The sugar market has a complex situation with supply increase expectations in the new season and import pressure on domestic prices. The pulp market has a supply - abundant situation and weak downstream demand [2][4][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2509 contract was 13,720 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton (+0.55%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,957 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,020 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan/ton [1] - As of June 19, the US net signed 6,214 tons of upland cotton this year and shipped 42,000 tons, with 0 tons net - signed to China and 1,882 tons shipped [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the June USDA report cut 25/26 global cotton production and consumption, with a decrease in ending stocks. US cotton growing areas have more rainfall, but the seedling condition has worsened. Domestically, commercial inventory is de - stocking, but new - year planting area is stable or increasing, and demand is in the off - season [2] Strategy - Neutral. Uncertain tariff policies, weather - induced short - term strength, but new - year high - yield expectations and weakening demand create upward pressure [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2509 contract was 5,790 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton (+0.57%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,080 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,890 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [4] - Brazil will increase the ethanol blending ratio in gasoline from 27% to 30% and the biodiesel blending ratio in diesel from 14% to 15% from August 1, 2025 [4] Market Analysis - Zhengzhou sugar futures were strong. Brazilian new - season supply is expected to increase, but there may be a short - term rebound. Domestic sugar sales are fast, but import volume in July may suppress the rebound [4] Strategy - Neutral. Zhengzhou sugar follows the international market, and attention should be paid to Brazilian estimates and domestic import rhythm [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2509 contract was 5,066 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.08%) from the previous day. Spot: The price of Chilean silver star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,990 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,125 yuan/ton, unchanged [5] - The decline of imported wood pulp prices slowed down, and downstream paper mills' purchasing enthusiasm did not improve [5] Market Analysis - Pulp futures oscillated at a low level. The suspension of a delivery product caused market fluctuations, but the supply is abundant, and demand is in the off - season [6] Strategy - Neutral. The 09 contract is mainly priced by certain pulp types, and the market lacks positive drivers, so prices may stay at the bottom [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for the methanol industry is neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - The geopolitical conflict between Iran and Israel has eased, and the market is starting to price in the expectation of Iranian plant restart. Attention should be paid to the progress of Iranian plant restart. In reality, port inventories have increased this week, but the absolute level is still low. Against the backdrop of low inventories in Taicang, the paper cargo delivery location, short - covering before the paper cargo delivery in late June has led to a rapid strengthening of port basis and a deeper discount in the futures market. Regarding MTO, some MTO plants had maintenance intentions earlier, and attention should be paid to the implementation progress in July. In the inland region, the coal - based methanol production rate remains high, but the inland plant inventories have decreased, indicating certain resilience in inland demand. The regional price difference between the port and the inland has declined from its high level and is expected to compress further [3] Summary by Directory 1. Methanol Basis & Inter - term Structure - Multiple charts show the basis of methanol in different regions (Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, Henan, Hebei, Guangdong) relative to the main futures contract, and the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [7][11][22] 2. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Charts display the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the profit of MTO in East China (PP&EG type), the import price difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, FOB Rotterdam - CFR China [26][27][31] 3. Methanol Production and Inventory - Charts present the total port inventory of methanol, the MTO/P operating rate (including integrated plants), the sample inventory of inland plants, and the operating rate of methanol production in China (including integrated plants) [33][34][36] 4. Regional Price Differences - Charts show the price differences between regions such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, Lunan - Taicang - 100, Guangdong - East China - 180, and East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200 [38][47][49] 5. Traditional Downstream Profits - Charts illustrate the production gross margins of Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [53][59]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bullish [3] 2. Core View of the Report - As the peak consumption season for lead - acid batteries in the third quarter approaches and the supply of lead ore remains relatively tight, the possibility of a significant decline in lead prices is relatively low. There may even be a squeeze - out situation, so it is advisable to adopt a strategy of buying on dips for hedging [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot Market - On June 26, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$21.37/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,000 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 25 yuan/ton to - 35.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,050 yuan/ton, and the SMM Henan lead price also increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,000 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,100 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 50 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries increased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,275 yuan/ton, while the prices of waste white - shell and black - shell batteries remained unchanged at 10,150 yuan/ton and 10,500 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On June 26, 2025, the main Shanghai lead futures contract opened at 17,170 yuan/ton, closed at 17,225 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 52,643 lots, an increase of 16,421 lots from the previous day, and the position was 51,182 lots, an increase of 36,029 lots. The intraday price fluctuated between 17,150 yuan/ton and 17,255 yuan/ton. In the night session, it opened at 17,225 yuan/ton and closed at 17,260 yuan/ton, up 0.32% from the afternoon close [1] Supply and Demand - According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price rose by 75 yuan/ton the previous day. In Henan, smelters offered prices at par with SMM1 lead, and traders offered discounts of 180 - 150 yuan/ton to the SHFE lead contracts 2507/2508. In Hunan, smelters offered discounts of 50 - 30 yuan/ton to SMM1 lead, and traders offered discounts of 220 - 200 yuan/ton to the 2508 contract. With the rise in lead prices, smelters actively offered for sale, and the mainstream production areas sold at discounts. Downstream enterprises only made purchases based on rigid demand, resulting in limited transactions. Some traders bought large - discount goods, and due to the large difference between futures and spot prices, some holders intended to deliver to the warehouse, and such transactions were fair [2] Inventory - On June 26, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 56,000 tons, an increase of 300 tons from the previous week. As of June 26, the LME lead inventory was 273,250 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The strategy is to be cautiously bullish. As the third - quarter peak consumption season for lead - acid batteries approaches and lead ore supply is tight, it is recommended to buy on dips for hedging. The operation range for the Pb2508 contract is 16,900 - 16,950 yuan/ton [3] - The option strategy is to sell put options [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the yield of treasury bonds showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend. Although the social financing data increased year - on - year, it was mainly driven by government bonds, and the credit demand remained weak. Coupled with the manufacturing PMI still below the boom - bust line, it strengthened the market's judgment of a weak economy, supporting the bond market. Geopolitical tensions and the escalation of the Middle East situation increased risk - aversion sentiment, which was also beneficial to the bond market. Although the Lujiazui Forum signaled financial opening, there were no more - than - expected loose measures, cooling the market's expectation of the central bank's treasury bond trading, causing interest - rate bonds to rise and then fall. In June, the LPR remained unchanged, the stock market weakened, and the capital side was relatively stable. The bond market generally rose, and the market's expectation of loose policies in the second half of the year increased. Ultra - long - term treasury bond trading was active, but the overall situation was still affected by the policy vacuum period [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's CPI (monthly) had a month - on - month change of - 0.20% and a year - on - year change of - 0.10%; China's PPI (monthly) had a month - on - month change of - 0.40% and a year - on - year change of - 3.30% [8]. - Monthly economic indicators: The social financing scale was 426.16 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.16 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.51%; M2 year - on - year was 7.90%, with a decrease of 0.10% and a decline rate of 1.25%; the manufacturing PMI was 49.50%, with an increase of 0.50% and a growth rate of 1.02% [8]. - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index was 97.31, with a decrease of 0.40 and a decline rate of 0.41%; the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.1603, with a decrease of 0.008 and a decline rate of 0.11%; SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.67, with no change and a decline rate of 0.06%; DR007 was 1.69, with a decrease of 0.01 and a decline rate of 0.51%; R007 was 1.64, with a decrease of 0.12 and a decline rate of 6.66%; the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) was 1.63, with an increase of 0.01 and a growth rate of 0.78%; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.07, with a decrease of 0.01 and a growth rate of 0.78% [8]. 3.2 Treasury Bonds and Treasury Bond Futures Market Overview No specific content provided for summary other than figure references such as the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures and the price change situation of various treasury bond futures varieties [9][15][17][19]. 3.3 Money Market Fundamentals - On June 26, 2025, the central bank carried out a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation of 509.3 billion yuan at a fixed interest rate of 1.5%. The main term repurchase interest rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.370%, 1.670%, 1.736%, and 1.622% respectively, and the repurchase interest rates had recently declined [2]. 3.4 Spread Overview No specific content provided for summary other than figure references such as the inter - period spread trend of various treasury bond futures varieties and the spread between spot - bond term spreads and futures cross - variety spreads [41][44][45]. 3.5 Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content provided for summary other than figure references such as the implied interest rate of the TS main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, and the IRR of the TS main contract and the capital interest rate [47][49]. 3.6 Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content provided for summary other than figure references such as the implied interest rate of the TF main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the basis trend of the TF main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TF main contract in the past three years [56][59][62]. 3.7 Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content provided for summary other than figure references such as the implied interest rate of the T main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the basis trend of the T main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the T main contract in the past three years [67][70]. 3.8 Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures No specific content provided for summary other than figure references such as the implied interest rate of the TL main contract and the maturity yield of treasury bonds, the basis trend of the TL main contract in the past three years, and the net basis trend of the TL main contract in the past three years [75][78][81]. 3.9 Strategies - Unilateral: The repurchase interest rate declined, the price of treasury bond futures fluctuated, and the 2509 contract was neutral [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the widening of the basis [4]. - Hedging: There is an adjustment pressure in the medium term, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

Report Title - Liquidity Daily Report [3][70] Report Date - June 27, 2025 [70] Core View - The report presents the trading liquidity data of various market sectors on June 26, 2025, including trading volume, holding volume, trading - holding ratio, and their changes compared to the previous trading day [1][2] Summary by Section 1. Plate Liquidity - The report provides data on trading volume, holding volume, trading - holding ratio, and their changes for multiple sectors including stock index, treasury bond, basic metal, precious metal, energy and chemical, agricultural product, and black building materials [1][2] 2. Stock Index Plate - On June 26, 2025, the trading volume was 4550.19 billion yuan, a - 26.80% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 10135.30 billion yuan, a - 4.83% change; the trading - holding ratio was 44.51% [1] 3. Treasury Bond Plate - The trading volume was 2499.35 billion yuan, a - 30.48% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 8863.54 billion yuan, a - 0.05% change; the trading - holding ratio was 28.93% [1] 4. Basic Metal and Precious Metal (Metal Plate) - The trading volume was 2959.58 billion yuan, a + 30.63% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 3963.72 billion yuan, a + 1.46% change; the trading - holding ratio was 119.65% [1] 5. Energy and Chemical Plate - The trading volume was 5462.92 billion yuan, a + 4.83% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 3913.21 billion yuan, a + 0.13% change; the trading - holding ratio was 97.88% [1] 6. Agricultural Product Plate - The trading volume was 3397.47 billion yuan, a + 12.62% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 5595.45 billion yuan, a + 0.13% change; the trading - holding ratio was 60.37% [1] 7. Black Building Materials Plate - The trading volume was 1852.91 billion yuan, a - 0.15% change from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 3390.78 billion yuan, a + 0.72% change; the trading - holding ratio was 54.89% [2]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-27 消费排产仍有支撑，碳酸锂盘面震荡运行 市场分析 2025年6月26日，碳酸锂主力合约2509开于60680元/吨，收于61500元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价上涨1.15%。当 日成交量为386982手，持仓量为345216手，较前一交易日减少5190手，根据SMM现货报价，目前期货升水电碳900 元/吨。所有合约总持仓619950手，较前一交易日减少10604手。当日合约总成交量较前一交易日增加39407手，成 交量增加，整体投机度为0.79 。当日碳酸锂仓单22590手，较上个交易日增加220手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，2025年6月26日电池级碳酸锂报价6-6.12万元/吨，较前一交易日上涨0.04万元/吨，工 业级碳酸锂报价5.85-5.95万元/吨，较前一交易日上涨0.04万元/吨。 库存方面：根据SMM最新统计数据，现货库存为13.68 万吨，其中冶炼厂库存为5.90 万吨，下游库存为4.06 万吨， 其他库存为3.72 万吨。周度产量也小幅增长305吨至1.88万吨，以锂辉石及云母生产产量均有增长。 策略 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 ...

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油脂日报 | 2025-06-27 昨日三大油脂价格震荡，美豆产区天气是风险较小，窗口期逐步缩小，压力逐步显现。 策略 中性 风险 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约8360.00元/吨，环比变化+16元，幅度+0.19%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约8000.00 元/吨，环比变化+16.00元，幅度+0.20%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9482.00元/吨，环比变化+6.00元，幅度+0.06%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8460.00元/吨，环比变化+0.00元，幅度+0.00%，现货基差P09+100.00，环比变 化-16.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8180.00元/吨，环比变化+10.00元/吨，幅度+0.12%，现货基差Y09+180.00， 环比变化-6.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9630.00元/吨，环比变化-30.00元，幅度-0.31%，现货基差OI09+148.00， 环比变化-36.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：美国农业部（USDA）公布数据，民间出口商报告对埃及出口销售11万吨大豆，于2024/2025 年度交货。美国大豆市场年度始于9月1日。美国 ...

油料日报 | 2025-06-27 大豆供应增量终端消费较弱，价格震荡运行 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2507合约4150.00元/吨，较前日变化-19.00元/吨，幅度-0.46%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A07+130，较前日变化+119，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：周三，芝加哥期货交易所(CBOT)大豆期货连续第四日下跌，其中基准期约收低1.85%，主要原因 是美国中西部地区天气转好，关键报告出台前交易商选择避险结利。截至收盘，大豆期货下跌14.75美分到21.50美 分不等，其中7月期约下跌21.50美分，报收1025.25美分/蒲;8月期约下跌20.75美分，报收1029.50美分/蒲;11月期约 下跌18.50美分，报收1018.50美分/蒲。6月27日，黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.14 元/斤，较昨日涨0.05元/斤；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.16元/斤，较昨日涨 0.04元/斤；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.16元/斤，较昨日涨0.04元/斤；黑龙 江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一 ...