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建信期货工业硅日报-20251023
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-10-23 02:42
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Industrial silicon futures prices are oscillating. The Si2601 contract closed at 8,805 yuan/ton, down 0.17%. The trading volume was 91,554 lots, and the open interest was 162,398 lots, with a net increase of 12,048 lots. Industrial silicon enterprises lack the willingness to actively cut production, and the demand side lacks growth momentum, causing short - term price movements to reach a stalemate. Although the southwest region is about to cut production, the northwest region's output continues to increase, and the weekly output in the third week of October was as high as 97,000 tons. The monthly demand for polysilicon is stable, and if the industry reaches a new consensus on further production cuts, it will continue to have a negative impact on the demand side of industrial silicon. The demand for silicone is 120,000 tons, and the demand for exports and alloys is also 120,000 tons, and there is no drive for inventory reduction in the market. There is also a lack of specific policy follow - up in the industrial silicon industry. In the fourth quarter, the marginal change in the industry is that the southwest production area will enter the dry season, which will increase costs due to rising electricity prices and lead to seasonal active production cuts. The current price has fallen into a stalemate again, and there is a lack of drivers for market improvement. The downward trend slows down near the lower end of the range (net short positions in the 11 - contract are being actively reduced), and the short - term market will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the strength of the lower support [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - Industrial silicon futures prices oscillated. The Si2601 contract closed at 8,805 yuan/ton, down 0.17%, with a trading volume of 91,554 lots and an open interest of 162,398 lots, a net increase of 12,048 lots [4]. 3.2 Spot Prices - The price range of 553 industrial silicon is 8,800 - 9,300 yuan/ton, and the price range of 421 is 9,550 - 9,950 yuan/ton [5]. 3.3 Market News - On October 22, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 48,738 lots, a net decrease of 113 lots from the previous trading day. In September, the value - added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.5% year - on - year in real terms. From a month - on - month perspective, it increased by 0.64% compared with the previous month. From January to September, the value - added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.2% year - on - year. From January to September, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 3,715.35 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. Among them, private fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.1% year - on - year. From a month - on - month perspective, fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 0.07% in September [6].
建信期货鸡蛋日报-20251023
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-10-23 02:41
行业 鸡蛋 日期 2025 年 10 月 23 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号:F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号:F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员:余兰兰 研究员:林贞磊 研究员:王海峰 研究员:洪辰亮 期货从业资格号:F3076808 研究员:刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1:行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...
贵金属日评-20251023
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-10-23 02:41
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report suggests that factors such as Fed rate cuts, geopolitical risks, and the accelerated restructuring of the international trade and monetary system continue to provide hedging demand and liquidity premiums for precious metals. The current upward trend in precious metals may continue until 2026. Investors are advised to maintain a bullish stance, while short - hedgers can appropriately reduce their hedging ratios. However, short - term adjustment risks should be noted, and heavy - position chasing at current prices is not recommended [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook - **Intraday Market**: Uncertainties in Sino - US trade and the Russia - Ukraine conflict, along with adjustment risks from previous price surges, led to a significant drop in gold and silver prices overnight, followed by a notable rebound in the Asian session. It is necessary to observe whether London gold can stabilize at the $3950 - 4050 per ounce level. Key events to watch this week include the fifth round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations, China's September economic data, the progress of the US government shutdown, and the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee [4]. - **Domestic Precious Metals Market Data**: The Shanghai Gold Index closed at 954.55, down 4.18%; the Shanghai Silver Index closed at 11,415, down 3.41%; Gold T + D closed at 947.30, down 4.01%; Silver T + D closed at 11,377, down 3.25% [5]. - **Medium - term Market**: From late April to early August, London gold oscillated widely between $3100 - 3500 per ounce to digest high - valuation pressures. Since August, factors such as the Fed's potential rate cuts, the restructuring of the international trade and monetary system, and geopolitical risks have driven a new round of upward trends in precious metals. London gold soared to $4380 per ounce, and London silver reached a new record high of $54.47 per ounce. Although the upward trend is expected to continue, short - term adjustment risks should be noted [5]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - Related Charts The report presents multiple charts, including those of Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets [7][9][11]. 3.3 Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - **US - Russia Relations**: The planned summit between US President Trump and Russian President Putin was postponed due to Russia's rejection of the immediate cease - fire proposal in Ukraine. Russia's conditions for a peace agreement with Ukraine conflicted with Trump's current plan [17]. - **EU - China Trade**: The EU Trade Commissioner invited Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao to visit Brussels to address China's tightened rare - earth export restrictions. China hopes the EU will urge the Netherlands to resolve the impasse around Nexperia. Discussions also covered the EU's anti - subsidy case against Chinese electric vehicles [18]. - **Japan's New Prime Minister's Stance**: Japan's new Prime Minister Takamori Sanae hopes the Bank of Japan's monetary policy can achieve a 2% inflation target in a sustainable manner, accompanied by wage growth [18]. - **Canada - US Steel and Aluminum Trade**: Canadian Prime Minister Carney was cautious about reports of a potential steel and aluminum trade agreement with the US, warning against over - interpretation [19].
建信期货棉花日报-20251023
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-10-23 02:41
Report Overview - Report Date: October 23, 2025 [2] - Industry: Cotton [1] - Research Analysts: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Zhengzhou cotton rebounded. The spot cotton price index of grade 328 was 14,772 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume of pure cotton yarn remained stable, with a slight recovery in downstream consumption due to the recent significant temperature drop in the southern regions of the Yangtze River. The downstream enterprises still adopted a "buy-as-you-go" approach, and the scale of new orders was limited. The operating rate of spinning mills increased slightly but was still lower than the same period in previous years. The price of the pure cotton cloth market was stable and weak, and the fabric mills maintained a slight loss. In the domestic market, the purchase price of machine-picked cottonseed in Xinjiang moved closer to the high price, and the high price did not continue to rise significantly. As of October 16, the national new cotton picking progress was 58.8%, 4.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year. In September, China imported 100,000 tons of cotton, a month-on-month increase of 30,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 20,000 tons. The terminal demand in the industrial downstream showed a slight recovery, but the characteristic of a weak peak season still persisted. Domestic consumption performed better than exports, and the retail sales of textile and clothing in September increased by 4.7% year-on-year. The hedging pressure above the peak season of new cotton listing and processing still needed to be digested, and the short-term trading center slowly moved up, trading time for space [7][8]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Zhengzhou cotton rebounded. The prices of CF2601, CF2605, and CF2609 contracts increased by 0.30%, 0.11%, and 0.15% respectively. The latest cotton price index of grade 328 was 14,772 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The purchase price of machine-picked cottonseed in Xinjiang was between 6.35 - 6.5 yuan/kg, and the theoretical cost of current purchase was mostly above 14,600 yuan (delivered basis). As of October 16, the national new cotton picking progress was 58.8%, 4.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year. In September, China imported 100,000 tons of cotton, a month-on-month increase of 30,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 20,000 tons. The terminal demand in the industrial downstream showed a slight recovery, and the retail sales of textile and clothing in September increased by 4.7% year-on-year [7][8]. 3.2 Industry News - As of October 21, 2025, a total of 928 cotton processing enterprises across the country processed cotton and carried out notarized inspections in accordance with the requirements of the cotton quality inspection system reform plan. The cumulative inspection volume was 978,600 tons, an increase of 93,100 tons from the previous day. Among them, the inspection volume in Xinjiang was 969,100 tons, an increase of 92,200 tons from the previous day; the inspection volume in the inland areas was 7,400 tons [9]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, and warehouse receipt volume, etc. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [16][17][19]
建信期货生猪日报-20251023
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-10-23 02:38
行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 10 月 23 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号:F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号:F0230741 研究员:洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号:F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员:林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员:余兰兰 研究员:王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员:刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源:涌益,建信期货研究中心 生猪行情: 期货方面,22 日生猪主力 2601 合约平开后探底回升窄幅震荡,尾盘收阴, 最高 12275 元/吨,最低 12135 元/吨,收盘报 122 ...
建信期货油脂日报-20251023
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-10-23 02:38
Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Oil and fat [1] - Report date: October 23, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural product research team [4] Group 2: Researcher Information - Researcher Yu Lanlan, contact: 021 - 60635732, email: yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F0301101 [3] - Researcher Lin Zhenlei, contact: 021 - 60635740, email: linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3055047 [3] - Researcher Wang Haifeng, contact: 021 - 60635727, email: wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F0230741 [3] - Researcher Hong Chenliang, contact: 021 - 60635572, email: hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3076808 [3] - Researcher Liu Youran, contact: 021 - 60635570, email: liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F03094925 [3] Group 3: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market review: East China's third - grade rapeseed oil prices from October - November are OI2601 + 330, December - January are OI2601 + 270; first - grade rapeseed oil from October - November are OI2601 + 430, December - January are OI2601 + 370. East China's first - grade soybean oil basis prices: for first - grade soybean oil, October is Y2501 + 210, October - November is Y2501 + 220, December - January is Y2601 + 280, February - May is Y2501 + 150, March - May is Y2501 + 130, May - July is Y2501 + 10; for third - grade soybean oil, it's 01 + 170; for raw soybean oil, it's 01 + 50. Dongguan traders' palm oil quotes are stable, with 24 - degree palm oil at 01 - 70 [7] - Industry comments: China's three major oils continued to adjust. In the palm oil market, the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) reported that Malaysia's palm oil production from October 1 - 20, 2025, increased by 10.77% month - on - month. Strong production and expected slowdown in Indian palm oil demand after Diwali dragged down the market. The domestic spot market was weak, with sufficient supply and little change in basis quotes. In the short term, there is a lack of drivers, and low crude oil prices also put pressure on the oil sector. Futures are expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend with further downward potential. Attention should be paid to the lower technical support levels [7] Group 4: Industry News - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) reported that Malaysia's palm oil production from October 1 - 20, 2025, increased by 10.77% month - on - month, with Peninsular Malaysia up 4.54%, Sabah up 21.99%, Sarawak up 16.69%, and East Malaysia up 20.45% [8] - UOB KayHian estimated that Malaysia's palm oil production from October 1 - 20 increased by 10% - 14% month - on - month, with Sabah up 20% - 24%, Sarawak up 18% - 22%, and Peninsular Malaysia up 3% - 7% [8] - Shipping surveyor SGS reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 20 were 793,571 tons, a 41.8% increase from 559,829 tons in the same period of September. Exports to China were 84,400 tons, higher than the 46,300 tons in the previous month [8] Group 5: Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts including spot prices of East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, East China's fourth - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil; basis changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil; P1 - 5, P5 - 9, P9 - 1 spreads; and exchange rates of US dollar to RMB and US dollar to Malaysian ringgit, with data sources from Wind and the research and development department of CCB Futures [10][12][15][23][28][29]
建信期货国债日报-20251023
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-10-23 02:37
行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 10 月 23 日 研究员:何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3008762 研究员:黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3051589 研究员:聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 | | | 表1:国债期货10月22日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 (%) | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2512 | 115.490 | 115.710 | 115.610 | 115.600 | 0.120 | 0.10 ...
建信期货多晶硅日报-20251023
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-10-23 02:37
多晶硅日报 油) 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 硅)028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 研究员:冯泽仁(玻璃纯碱) 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 行业 日期 2025 年 10 月 23 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油燃料 研究员:任俊弛(PTA/MEG) 研究员:彭浩洲(工业硅/多晶 研究员:彭婧霖(聚烯烃) 研究员:刘悠然(纸浆) 期货从业资格号:F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 现货价格:多晶硅 n ...
建信期货集运指数日报-20251022
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-10-22 03:25
1. Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: October 22, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - Despite the traditional off - season in October, supply pressure exists due to limited capacity control, and spot freight rates are falling. However, shipping companies are raising rates for the second half of October and November, and the freight rate is likely to bottom out and rebound, with the bottom possibly reached this year. The December contract has an opportunity for a rebound from oversold conditions [8]. - The China export container shipping market continued its rebound this week. Transport demand was generally stable, and ocean - going route freight rates increased, driving up the composite index. China's exports in September showed good growth, and the trade with the EU was particularly strong [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - In October, it's the traditional off - season with supply pressure. Shipping companies are raising rates for the second half of October and November. For example, Maersk's rates for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route increased. The Israel - Hamas conflict may affect the Red Sea route, and the December contract has an oversold repair opportunity [8]. 3.2行业要闻 - The China export container shipping market continued to rebound. China's exports in September increased by 8.3% year - on - year. The EU route had strong growth, with a 14.2% year - on - year increase in September. The Mediterranean route's freight rates also rose. The North American route had a "抢出口" effect in the short term despite challenges. The Israel - Hamas conflict has escalated, and the international community believes Hamas has violated the cease - fire agreement [9][10]. 3.3数据概览 3.3.1集运现货价格 - The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index for the European route on October 20, 2025, was 1140.38, up 10.5% from October 13. The index for the US West route was 863.46, up 0.1% [12]. 3.3.2集运指数(欧线)期货行情 - The report provides the trading data of container shipping futures on the European line on October 21, including the contract, previous settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change [6]. 3.3.3航运相关数据走势图 - The report presents various shipping - related data charts, such as container ship capacity in Europe, global container ship orders, Shanghai - Europe basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [17][21]
建信期货焦炭焦煤日评-20251022
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-10-22 02:28
021-60635736 期货从业资格号:F3033782 投资咨询证书号:Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03124070 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03134307 报告类型 焦炭焦煤日评 日期 2025 年 10 月 22 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员:翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员:聂嘉怡 研究员:冯泽仁 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 | | | | | | 表1:10月16日焦炭焦煤期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况(单位:元/吨、手、亿元) | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | J2601 | 171 ...