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建信期货MEG日报-20250923
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 01:44
Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: MEG Daily Report [1] - Date: September 23, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: The closing price of EG2601 was 4240 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan; the closing price of EG2605 was 4294 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The trading volume of the main contract was 113147 lots, and the open interest was 329607 lots [7]. - Market Outlook: The supply pressure of ethylene glycol has further increased, but the tight spot liquidity and the arrival of the downstream peak season have provided some support for the price. The market direction is less clear, and it is expected that ethylene glycol may run weakly in the short term [7]. Group 3: Industry News - International Oil Prices: Concerns about oversupply and falling demand outweighed expectations that the Fed's first rate cut this year would boost consumption, causing international oil prices to fall for the third consecutive day. The settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for October 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $62.68 per barrel, down $0.89 or 1.40% [8]. - Ethylene Glycol Spot Market: The mainstream transaction price of ethylene glycol in Zhangjiagang market was 4320 - 4350 yuan/ton, up 12.5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The prices in Dongguan and Fujian markets remained unchanged [8]. Group 4: Data Overview - Data Sources: All data in the report are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [7][11][12] - Data Charts: The report includes charts on PTA - MEG spread, MEG price, MEG futures price, spot - futures price difference, international crude oil futures closing price, raw material price index (ethylene), MEG downstream product prices, and MEG downstream product inventories [10][15][16]
建信期货PTA日报-20250923
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 01:44
Report Information - Report Name: PTA Daily Report [1] - Date: September 23, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided. Core Viewpoint - The low processing fee of PTA has not led to a large number of unplanned device overhauls, with sufficient spot supply. The sales of downstream polyester filament are average, and the PTA market is expected to be weak [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On the 22nd, the closing price of the PTA main futures contract TA2601 was 4,586 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan/ton or 1.12%. The settlement price was 4,596 yuan/ton, and the daily open interest increased by 40,123 lots [6]. 2. Industry News - Concerns about oversupply and falling demand outweighed expectations that the Fed's first rate cut this year would spur more consumption, causing international oil prices to fall for the third consecutive day. On Friday (September 19), the settlement price of the WTI crude oil futures contract for October 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $62.68 per barrel, down $0.89 or 1.40%. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures contract for November 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $66.68 per barrel, down $0.76 or 1.13% [7]. - The assessed price in the Chinese PX market was $807 - 809 per ton, down $8 per ton; the assessed price in the South Korean PX market was $787 - 789 per ton, down $8 per ton. The cost side of the oil market continued its weak trend, leading to weak cost momentum for PX. Domestic PX supply was at a relatively high level, and the intensity of production cuts by PTA factories on the demand side increased, resulting in the de - stocking outlook falling short of expectations, and bearish sentiment dominated the market [7]. - The price of PTA in the East China market was 4,520 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan/ton. The average daily negotiation basis was a discount of 76 yuan/ton compared to futures 2601, up 3 yuan [7]. 3. Data Overview - The report mainly presents various data charts, including PTA futures price summary, spot - futures price difference, international crude oil futures main contract closing price, upstream raw material spot price, PX price, MEG price, PTA processing margin, TA5 - 9 spread, PTA warehouse receipt quantity, polyester factory load rate, PTA downstream product price, and PTA downstream product inventory, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [11][13][17]
建信期货聚烯烃日报-20250923
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 01:42
Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: September 23, 2025 [2] Market Quotes Futures Market | Variety | Opening | Closing | High | Low | Change | Change Rate | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Plastic 2601 | 7169 | 7130 | 7183 | 7121 | -51 | -0.71% | 580839 | 24526 | | Plastic 2605 | 7231 | 7187 | 7239 | 7175 | -41 | -0.57% | 41372 | 1271 | | Plastic 2609 | 7266 | 7229 | 7267 | 7222 | -35 | -0.48% | 145 | 53 | | PP2601 | 6917 | 6873 | 6927 | 6862 | -44 | -0.64% | 645243 | 35335 | | PP2605 | 6967 | 6929 | 6973 | 6919 | -30 | -0.43% | 73930 | 239 | | PP2609 | 6944 | 6912 | 6954 | 6907 | -14 | -0.20% | 1665 | 76 | [5] Market Review and Outlook - L2601 opened lower, fluctuated downward during the session, and closed down at 7130 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan/ton (-0.71%), with a trading volume of 210,000 lots and an increase of 24,526 lots in open interest to 580,839 lots. PP2601 closed at 6873 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan, a decline of 0.64%, with an increase of 35,300 lots in open interest to 645,200 lots [6]. - The futures market opened lower and fluctuated downward, which was negative for market sentiment. Some ex-factory prices were lowered, and traders followed suit. Downstream procurement enthusiasm was low, with only small orders being placed [6]. - The upstream maintenance level of polypropylene slightly exceeded expectations, with more units shutting down. Both the upstream capacity utilization rate and output decreased. In addition, due to the recent strengthening of propane prices, the profit of PDH units continued to be compressed, and the operating load rate declined, alleviating the supply-side pressure. Some maintenance units will restart this week, and output may increase month-on-month [6]. - The maintenance volume of PE has declined from its high level, and the supply pressure has increased month-on-month. Except for the increase in the operating rate of agricultural film, most other sectors remained flat. The peak season performance was lower than expected, and the downstream operating rate and order situation were at a relatively low level year-on-year. Factories were cautious in raw material procurement, showing a weak peak season and having limited support for the raw material market. The destocking rhythm of intermediate social inventories was slow, and there was limited upward momentum [6]. - The expectation of interest rate cuts in the macroeconomic environment has been realized, but the chemical sector showed a flat performance. There is still some support from the increasing demand for packaging products approaching the Double Festival, but market confidence is insufficient, and there is no large-scale replenishment behavior. The demand-driven force is limited, and the market is weak and fluctuating at a low level [6]. Industry News - On September 22, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 680,000 tons, an increase of 50,000 tons from the previous working day, an increase of 7.94%. The inventory in the same period last year was 810,000 tons [7]. - The price of the PE market weakened and declined. The price of LLDPE in North China was 7060 - 7400 yuan/ton, in East China was 7200 - 7650 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7300 - 7750 yuan/ton [7]. - The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily referred to as 6500 - 6570 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The supply-demand support in the market weakened, and the enthusiasm of downstream factories to enter the market for procurement was not high. Propylene production enterprises had average sales and mostly offered discounts to promote sales. The market trading situation has not improved significantly [7]. - The PP market declined slightly, with a decline of 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of North China wire drawing was 6700 - 6820 yuan/ton, in East China was 6720 - 6860 yuan/ton, and in South China was 6680 - 6900 yuan/ton [8] Data Overview - Graphs include L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, settlement price of crude oil futures main contract, two - barrel oil inventory, and year - on - year increase/decrease of two - barrel oil inventory [14][15][16]
建信期货纸浆日报-20250923
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 01:42
Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: September 23, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Pulp Futures: The previous settlement price of the 01 contract of pulp futures was 5,320 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5,288 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.60%. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 5,000 - 6,600 yuan/ton, with prices remaining stable compared to the previous trading day's closing price. The offer price of Shandong Yinxing was 5,600 - 5,620 yuan/ton [7]. - Overseas Quotes: Chile's Arauco Company announced the new September wood pulp overseas quotes. The price of softwood pulp Yinxing was 700 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 20 US dollars/ton from the previous month; the price of natural pulp Venus was 590 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous month; the price of hardwood pulp Mingxing was 520 US dollars/ton, an increase of 20 US dollars/ton from the previous month [8]. - European Inventory and Consumption: In August, the European wood pulp inventory was 707,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 11.3%. The European wood pulp consumption was 700,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.7% and a year - on - year increase of 2.4% [8]. - China's Imports: In August, China's total pulp imports were 2.653 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.6% [8]. - Inventory in China: As of September 18, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports was 2.0832 million tons, an increase of 0.54% from the previous week [8]. - Downstream Market: The cultural paper market continued to recover in terms of industry operation, with an expected increase in market supply, showing a weak and volatile trend. In the short term, overseas quotes showed mixed trends. The tightening of the supply side still needed to be reflected in shipments. Port inventories remained at a high level, and downstream paper mills still aimed to reduce costs and increase efficiency, so the market continued to adjust with low - level fluctuations [8]. Group 3: Industry News - Chenming Paper: On September 15, Chenming Paper stated during a specific - object research reception that the Shouguang base had fully resumed production, and the Huanggang base and the second plant of the Jiangxi base were operating normally. The first plant of the Jiangxi base, the Jilin base, and the Zhanjiang base were still under maintenance and aimed to resume production as soon as possible. Regarding the question of whether to reduce the production capacity of white cardboard, the company said it had three white cardboard production lines. The second plant in Jiangxi mainly produced poker cards with stable profits; the fourth plant in Shouguang planned to produce high - value - added copper - plated cards, game cards, food cards, etc. to improve profitability; after the fourth plant in Zhanjiang resumed production, it would mainly reduce costs and improve profit margins by reducing the cost of self - made pulp and improving production efficiency [9]
纯碱、玻璃日报-20250923
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 01:42
Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Date: September 23, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The contradiction in the soda ash industry has been alleviated in the short - term, but the supply is still in surplus, and the market pattern of oversupply has not been effectively improved. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate and strengthen. Attention should be paid to macro - economic changes [8]. - It is expected that the main contract of glass futures will maintain a volatile trend in the short - term [10]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions Soda Ash - **Market Data**: On September 22, the price of the main soda ash futures SA601 contract decreased after rising, with a closing price of 1,293 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton or 1.44%, and an increase in positions of 38,105 lots [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Weekly production decreased to 745,700 tons, a 2.02% week - on - week decrease. Factory inventories decreased to 1.7556 million tons, a decrease of 41,900 tons from last Thursday. Total shipments reached 787,600 tons, a 0.25% week - on - week increase, and the overall shipment rate was 105.62%, a 2.39 - percentage - point increase [8]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to fluctuate and strengthen, and attention should be paid to macro - economic changes [8]. Glass - **Fundamentals**: Supply showed a slight increase but remained at a low level. Spot prices rebounded, and industry profits improved. Deep - processing orders remained stable, mainly for rigid demand, and inventories started to accumulate again. The supply pressure of float glass has eased marginally, and the cost has certain support, but the demand is weak. The photovoltaic glass market has seen a significant price increase [9]. - **Outlook**: The main contract of glass futures is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the short - term [10]. 3.2 Data Overview - The report provides figures on the price trends of active soda ash and glass contracts, soda ash weekly production, soda ash enterprise inventories, central China heavy soda market prices, and flat glass production, but no specific data analysis is presented in the text [12][14][20]
建信期货棉花日报-20250923
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 01:36
Report Summary 1. Reported Industry - The report focuses on the cotton industry [1] 2. Report Date - The report was released on September 23, 2025 [2] 3. Researchers - The researchers include Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [3] 4. Core Views - Zhengzhou cotton prices have weakened. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index is 15,224 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cotton market in China and overseas shows different trends, with overall weak demand and downward - pressure on prices [7][8] 5. Summary by Section 5.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Domestic Market**: Zhengzhou cotton's trend has weakened. The spot cotton price has declined, and the cotton yarn market has a general performance with prices moving down slowly. The cotton fabric market maintains shipments with stable prices. The household textile factory orders are competitive with low processing fees, and factories prioritize inventory reduction. The purchase price of seed cotton is stable with a slight decline, and the acquisition volume is expected to increase during the National Day. The demand is weaker than in previous years, and the market is waiting for the opening price guidance [7][8] - **Overseas Market**: The good - quality rate of US cotton has slightly decreased, the drought coverage in cotton - growing areas has increased, and the weekly export data has improved. However, due to limited adjustments in supply - demand expectations, the net long position of CFTC funds remains low, and the market is in a weak range - bound operation [8] 5.2. Industry News - As of September 18, 2025, the national new cotton picking progress is 0.8%, 0.3 percentage points higher than the same period last year and 0.2 percentage points lower than the average of the past four years. The national delivery rate is 15.8%, 6.0 percentage points higher than the same period last year and 7.1 percentage points higher than the average of the past four years. New cotton processing by surveyed enterprises is sporadic [9]
建信期货豆粕日报-20250923
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 01:35
Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Report date: September 23, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review - **Domestic Futures Contracts**: The closing prices of domestic soybean meal futures contracts such as 2601, 2509, and 2511 all increased. The trading volume of the 2601 contract was 1,046,478, and the closing price was 3034, with a 1.00% increase. The trading volume of the 2509 contract was 5,276, and the closing price was 2891, with a 0.07% increase. The trading volume of the 2511 contract was 78,776, and the closing price was 3008, with a 1.11% increase [6] - **External Market**: The US soybean futures contract declined, with the main contract at 1020 cents. The weather for the new - season US soybeans continued to deteriorate, with the excellent - good rate dropping to 63% and the drought - affected area rising from 22% to 33%. The market focused on Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, and the two sides held talks in Spain from the 14th to the 17th, reaching a general framework agreement on the TikTok incident [6] Operational Suggestions - In the short term, the CBOT price lacks drivers and maintains a narrow - range oscillation. Externally, attention should be paid to weather and economic and trade negotiation issues. Given the potential lack of positive factors from now until the National Day, investors are advised to reduce positions to avoid risks. However, under the assumption of unchanged tariffs, the long - position window may be in the fourth quarter [6] Group 3: Industry News - As of last Friday, the planting rate of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean was 0.7%, higher than 0.25% in the same period last year, 0.4% in 2023, and the five - year average of 0.18%. The soybean planting in Mato Grosso, Brazil's main producing area, has made progress, reaching 0.55% of the estimated area, higher than 0.27% in the same period last year and the historical average of 0.48% [9][10] - The Rosario Grain Exchange predicted that Argentina's 2025/26 grain and its by - product exports may reach a record 105.1 million tons, exceeding the previous year's 101.6 million tons and the 2018/19 record of 104.1 million tons. It is estimated that grain and oilseed shipments will reach 64.7 million tons, of which 62% is corn, and the export of fats, oils, and oil meals is estimated to be 40.4 million tons, mostly from soybeans [10] Group 4: Data Overview - Multiple data charts are provided, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 01 contract, the 1 - 5 spread, the 5 - 9 spread, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate. The data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [16][18][15]
建信期货生猪日报-20250923
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 01:31
Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The overall supply and demand of live pigs in the spot market are loose, and the price remains weak. Although the demand has increased, the continuous increase is not obvious, and the supply pressure is relatively greater. In the futures market, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase slightly before the Spring Festival. The 2511 and 2601 contracts are in the peak demand season, and the supply - demand margin may improve, but they are mainly dragged down by the weak spot market [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 22nd, the main live pig contract 2511 opened slightly higher, then fluctuated and declined after reaching a high, closing with a negative candle. The highest price was 12,920 yuan/ton, the lowest was 12,780 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 12,795 yuan/ton, down 0.31% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 648 lots to 247,641 lots [8]. - **Spot Market**: On the 22nd, the average price of三元 pigs nationwide was 12.67 yuan/kg, down 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous day [8]. - **Supply - side**: In September, the planned sales volume of sample breeding enterprises was 25.7 million heads, an increase of 970,000 heads or 3.92% compared with the actual slaughter in August, with a daily average increase of 7.39%. The slaughter volume may continue to increase significantly. The utilization rate of second - fattening pens remains high, and there is still pressure on slaughter. The slaughter weight has slightly declined. In the long term, the slaughter of live pigs before the Spring Festival may still maintain a slight growth trend [9]. - **Demand - side**: The price difference between fat and standard pigs has slightly widened, and the fattening cost is still low. Currently, second - fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state. Although the weather has turned cooler, the continuous increase in demand is not obvious, and the sales of white - striped pigs are slow. There is no obvious positive news. In the second half of the month, the slaughter volume has increased, the enterprise's operating rate has slightly increased, the orders of slaughtering enterprises have slightly increased, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have slightly increased. On September 22nd, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 153,200 heads, a decrease of 400 heads from the previous day, an increase of 13,700 heads week - on - week, and an increase of 9,100 heads month - on - month [9]. 2. Industry News - As of September 18th, the average profit per self - breeding and self - raising live pig was 7.7 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 46 yuan/head; the average profit per purchased piglet for fattening was - 246.6 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 70.8 yuan/head [10][12]. 3. Data Overview - The average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets in the week of September 18th was 358 yuan/head, a decrease of 36 yuan/head from the previous week [15]. - The price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs in the week of September 18th was 0.16 yuan/jin, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 yuan/jin [15]. - The cost of fattening from 110 kg to 140 kg in the week of September 18th was 12.71 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.47 yuan/kg from the previous week; the cost of fattening from 125 kg to 150 kg was 12.94 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.58 yuan/kg from the previous week [15]. - The operating rate of slaughtering enterprises in the week of September 18th was 31.77%, an increase of 0.37 percentage points from the previous week and 2.22 percentage points year - on - year. The weekly operating rate fluctuated in the range of 31.54 - 31.80 [15]. - As of the week of September 18th, the average slaughter weight of live pigs nationwide was 128.45 kg, an increase of 0.13 kg from the previous week, with a month - on - month increase of 0.10% [15].
建信期货鸡蛋日报-20250922
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 02:00
行业 鸡蛋 日期 2025 年 9 月 22 日 农产品研究团队 研究员:余兰兰 研究员:林贞磊 研究员:王海峰 研究员:洪辰亮 期货从业资格号:F3076808 研究员:刘悠然 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号:F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号:F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 目前在产蛋鸡存栏处于上行的趋势之中,根据卓创资讯,截至 8 月末,全国 在产蛋鸡月度存栏量约 13.65 亿只,7 月末为 13.56 亿只,6 月末为 13.40 亿 只,环比增幅 0.7%,连续 8 个月有一定程度的增 ...
白糖日报-20250922
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 02:00
Report Information - Report Name: Sugar Daily Report - Date: September 22, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - On Thursday, New York raw sugar futures fluctuated weakly. The increase in production pressure led to the decline of raw sugar. Zhengzhou sugar was generally weaker than raw sugar, and the sharp decline at 5500 was mainly due to the efforts of speculative short - sellers. Whether they can continue to increase positions and drive down prices in the future is worthy of attention. India's sugar export in the new season may suppress global sugar prices [6][7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market Conditions**: The main contract of New York raw sugar futures, the October contract, closed down 0.84% to 15.41 cents per pound. The December contract of London ICE white sugar futures closed down 1% to $454.60 per ton. The SR601 contract of Zhengzhou sugar closed at 5461 yuan per ton, down 35 yuan or 0.64%, with an increase of 17,853 positions. Domestic spot prices in production areas declined, with the price in Nanning at 5930 yuan and that in Kunming at 5760 yuan [7][8]. 3.2 Industry News - **Brazilian Sugar Production**: In the second half of August, the central - southern region of Brazil crushed 50.061 million tons of sugarcane, a year - on - year increase of 10.68%. Sugar production was 3.872 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.21%. Ethanol production decreased by 1.85% year - on - year to 2.42 billion liters. As of August 31, in the 2025/26 season, the cumulative sugarcane crushing was 403.942 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.78%; cumulative sugar production was 26.758 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.92%; cumulative ethanol production was 18.482 billion liters, a year - on - year decrease of 10.05% [9]. - **Indian Sugar Export**: India, the world's second - largest sugar producer, is expected to have sufficient surplus sugar stocks to allow sugar exports in the new season starting on October 1. Indian exports may suppress global sugar prices [9]. 3.3 Data Overview - Multiple data charts are presented, including spot trends, contract basis, price spreads, import profits, exchange warehouse receipts, exchange rate, and the trading and holding positions of the top 20 seats of the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar [12][14][19][21].