Group 1: Report Overview - Report date: September 5, 2025 [2] - Report on: Industrial silicon market - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team of Jianxin Futures [3] Group 2: Market Performance and Outlook Market Performance - Industrial silicon futures prices fluctuated within a narrow range. Si2511 closed at 8,515 yuan/ton, up 0.12%. Trading volume was 371,805 lots, and open interest was 277,305 lots, a net decrease of 2,437 lots [4] - Sichuan 553 price was 8,900 yuan/ton, Yunnan 553 price was 8,550 yuan/ton. Inner Mongolia 421 price was 9,400 yuan/ton, Xinjiang 421 price was 9,150 yuan/ton, and Sichuan 421 price was 9,600 yuan/ton [4] Market Outlook - This week, spot prices remained stable. The supply side increased significantly, with weekly output reaching 90,000 tons, equivalent to about 390,000 tons per month. On the demand side, polysilicon production in September decreased from 145,000 tons to 120,000 - 130,000 tons. The total demand from organic silicon, alloys, and exports remained stable. The industry is facing a supply - demand imbalance again without inventory reduction drivers [4] - Policy implementation has not focused on the industrial silicon industry. With insufficient fundamental drivers, the futures market will fluctuate widely [4] Group 3: Market News - On September 4, the futures warehouse receipt volume on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,072 lots, a net decrease of 276 lots from the previous trading day [5] - According to customs data, in July 2025, China exported 74,000 tons of metallic silicon, a month - on - month increase of 8.32% and a year - on - year increase of 36.75%. From January to July 2025, China exported a total of 414,700 tons of metallic silicon, a year - on - year decrease of 1.04% [5] - From January to July 2025, the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity reached 1,109.6 GW, and the new installed capacity was 223.25 GW. In July, the single - month new installed capacity was 11 GW, a year - on - year decrease of 47.7%, hitting a new low in 2025 [5]

1. Report Information - Report Name: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: September 5, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] 2. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Pulp futures contract 01 had a previous settlement price of 5,340 yuan/ton and a closing price of 5,324 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.30%. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 5,000 - 6,650 yuan/ton, with the low - end price unchanged from the previous trading day's closing price. The Shandong Yinxing was quoted at 5,750 yuan/ton [7]. - Chile's Arauco Company announced the new August wood pulp export quotes: softwood pulp Yinxing at $720/ton, natural pulp Jinxing at $590/ton, and hardwood pulp Mingxing at $520/ton, remaining stable compared to the June quotes. In July, the chemical pulp shipments of the world's 20 major pulp - producing countries increased by 7.3% year - on - year, with softwood pulp up 4.1% and hardwood pulp up 11.1%. In July 2025, the total wood pulp inventory in European ports decreased by 1.9% month - on - month and increased by 19.2% year - on - year. China's pulp imports in July were 2.877 million tons, down 5.1% month - on - month and up 23.7% year - on - year. As of September 4, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports increased by 0.52% month - on - month. In July, the cumulative year - on - year profit of the papermaking and paper products industry decreased by 21.9%, with a slightly wider decline. With limited cost guidance and ample supply, waiting for peak - season demand, pulp prices are in a low - level oscillatory adjustment [8]. 3. Industry News - On September 3, the Shanghai Futures Exchange issued multiple announcements regarding offset printing paper futures, covering the first batch of delivery warehouses, delivery plants, deliverable commodities, and designated inspection institutions. - On September 4, with the arrival of the traditional peak season in the industry and many paper mills implementing a dual strategy of "price increase + shutdown", the upward trend of paper prices may continue. Since September, leading paper companies have adjusted prices. Recently, large paper mills such as Nine Dragons Paper, Shanying International, Lee & Man Paper, and Wuzhou Special Paper issued price - increase letters, announcing price hikes for some products in early September. In the first half of this year, among the 23 A - share listed companies in the papermaking industry, only 4 achieved positive net profit growth. Analysts believe that affected by the slowdown in the domestic FMCG consumption growth rate and cautious channel inventory replenishment willingness, the raw paper price has continued to bottom out, and the market is in a deep structural adjustment period [9] 4. Data Overview - The report includes multiple data charts, such as the spot price of imported bleached softwood pulp in Shandong, pulp futures price, pulp spot - futures price difference, needle - broadleaf price difference, inter - period price difference, warehouse receipt volume, domestic main port pulp inventory, European main port wood pulp inventory, prices and price differences of coated paper, offset paper, white cardboard, and whiteboard paper, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate [15][17][19][28][29][32]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the terminal demand for live pigs increases at the beginning of the month, and the spot price of live pigs rebounds with fluctuations, but the supply pressure in September remains high, and the overall situation is still weak. For futures, the 2511 and 2601 contracts are in the peak demand season, and the supply of live pigs increases slightly, with a possible improvement in the supply - demand margin. However, the current spot pressure is still large, and the trend is mainly weak [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 4th, the main 2511 contract of live pigs opened flat and then oscillated downward, closing in the red at the end of the session. The highest price was 13,550 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,355 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 13,365 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.37% compared with the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 5,457 lots to 185,984 lots [7]. - **Spot Market**: On the 4th, the average price of ternary live pigs nationwide was 13.90 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.07 yuan/kg compared with the previous day [7]. - **Supply - side Situation**: According to sample data, in September, sample breeding enterprises plan to sell 25.7 million heads, an increase of 970,000 heads or 3.92% compared with the actual output in August, with a daily average increase of 7.39%. The output may continue to increase significantly, and the utilization rate of the second - fattening pens remains high. There is still pressure on output, and the average weight of slaughtered pigs is declining. In the long - term, the output of live pigs may still increase slightly [8]. - **Demand - side Situation**: The price difference between fat and lean pigs has slightly widened, and the cost of fattening is still low. Currently, the second - fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state. At the beginning of September, colleges and universities in various regions started school one after another. The centralized procurement by school canteens at the beginning of the month boosted the market, and the weather in some regions continued to cool down, which may increase the terminal consumption of residents. The orders of slaughtering enterprises increased slightly, the slaughter progress was relatively fast, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises increased slightly. On September 4th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 150,800 heads, an increase of 10,000 heads compared with the previous day and an increase of 65,000 heads compared with a week ago [8]. 3.2 Industry News - As of August 21st, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising was 78 yuan/head, a weekly decrease of 5 yuan/head; the average profit per head of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 57.6 yuan/head, a weekly decrease of 5 yuan/head [9][11]. 3.3 Data Overview - **15 - kg Piglet Price**: In the week of August 21st, the average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets was 463 yuan/head, a decrease of 21 yuan/head compared with the previous week [17]. - **Slaughter Volume**: In the week of August 21st, the slaughter volume of the slaughter sample was 1.675 million heads, an increase of 41,500 heads or 2.54% compared with the previous week; the average daily slaughter volume of the daily slaughter sample was 140,238 heads, an increase of 1,792 heads or 1.29% compared with the previous week [17]. - **Planned Output of Sample Enterprises**: In August, the planned output of sample enterprises was 24.72 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 6.6% compared with July, with a significant increase in output [17]. - **Average Weight of Slaughtered Pigs**: As of the week of August 21st, the average weight of slaughtered pigs nationwide was 127.98 kg, an increase of 0.16 kg or 0.13% compared with the previous week [17].

Group 1: General Information - Report title: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Report date: September 5, 2025 [2] - Research team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Quotes Futures Market | Variety | Opening | Closing | Highest | Lowest | Change | Change Rate | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Plastic 2601 | 7241 | 7225 | 7243 | 7206 | -37 | -0.51% | 502560 | 12101 | | Plastic 2605 | 7234 | 7220 | 7238 | 7201 | -34 | -0.47% | 31934 | 382 | | Plastic 2509 | 7168 | 7170 | 7180 | 7160 | -36 | -0.50% | 8450 | -77 | | PP2601 | 6940 | 6939 | 6948 | 6915 | -23 | -0.33% | 595380 | 15647 | | PP2605 | 6946 | 6949 | 6958 | 6928 | -27 | -0.39% | 45582 | 379 | | PP2509 | 6869 | 6828 | 6869 | 6828 | -41 | -0.60% | 5316 | -273 | [5] Group 3: Market Review and Outlook - L2601 opened lower, fluctuated during the session, and closed at 7225 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan/ton (-0.51%), with a trading volume of 236,000 lots and an increase in open interest of 12,101 lots to 502,560 lots. PP2601 closed at 6939 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan, a decline of 0.33%, with an increase in open interest of 15,600 lots to 595,400 lots. [6] - Futures opened lower and fluctuated weakly, dampening market trading sentiment. Traders' quoted prices were weak, and downstream buyers were cautious and replenished at low prices. [6] - For PP, the impact of maintenance weakened, new production capacity continued to be released, and the new device of Daxie Petrochemical brought supply pressure. The downstream was in the transition period between peak and off - peak seasons, and the start - up load of plastic weaving and BOPP increased slowly. Injection molding improved locally due to the release of school supplies orders, but the overall recovery trend was not good. Attention should be paid to the substantial improvement of consumption in the "Golden September" peak season. [6] - For PE, the supply - demand contradiction was not obvious. Short - term maintenance losses increased again, and new capacity投放 was slow, so the supply pressure was acceptable. The load of downstream pipes remained low, and raw material and finished product inventories were at a low level. The start - up load of agricultural films improved compared with the previous period and entered the seasonal upward range, which was expected to drive social inventory reduction. However, as the travel peak season was coming to an end and the refinery maintenance season was approaching, cost support weakened, and plastics mainly fluctuated narrowly. [6] Group 4: Industry News - On September 4, 2025, the inventory level of main producers was 680,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from the previous working day, a decline of 2.86%. The inventory in the same period last year was 750,000 tons. [7] - PE market prices partially declined. The LLDPE price in North China was 7110 - 7450 yuan/ton, in East China was 7170 - 7700 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7380 - 7750 yuan/ton. [7] - The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily 6610 - 6650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The cost pressure of downstream products increased, and the enthusiasm of factories to purchase propylene decreased. The transaction of propylene production enterprises was average, and some slightly higher prices were slightly adjusted down. The overall market trading atmosphere weakened. [7] - The PP market partially loosened. The cost support of goods changed little. Traders still actively sold goods, and some quoted prices were slightly loosened. Downstream purchasing sentiment was not high. The mainstream price of North China drawstrings was 6770 - 6980 yuan/ton, in East China was 6800 - 6980 yuan/ton, and in South China was 6760 - 7030 yuan/ton. [7][8]

1. Report Information - Report Title: Sugar Daily Report - Date: September 5, 2025 - Researcher: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. 3. Core View - The sugar market is facing downward pressure. In the international market, the good weather in Brazil is conducive to sugarcane harvesting, and the increase in Brazilian sugar production suppresses sugar prices. The decline in oil prices also has a negative impact on sugar prices. In the domestic market, the increase in imported sugar and syrup premixes, the upcoming listing of new - season beet sugar in Xinjiang in September, and the weak demand from downstream food and beverage enterprises all contribute to the downward trend of sugar prices. Additionally, the shift of speculative funds from long to short and the potential for further short - position increases exacerbate the decline [7][8]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **International Market**: On Wednesday, New York raw sugar futures weakened slightly. The主力 October contract closed down 0.62% at 16.05 cents per pound, and the London ICE white sugar futures'主力 October contract closed down 1.3% at $484.40 per ton. The good weather in Brazil is favorable for sugarcane harvesting, and the large - scale production of Brazilian sugar suppresses sugar prices. The decline in oil prices also has a negative impact on sugar prices [7]. - **Domestic Market**: The domestic Zhengzhou sugar futures'主力 contract continued to weaken. The SR601 contract closed at 5,533 yuan per ton, down 36 yuan or 0.65%, with an increase of 7,114 positions. The spot prices in domestic production areas declined. The fundamental negative factors include the increase in imported sugar and syrup premixes, the upcoming listing of new - season beet sugar in Xinjiang in September, and the insufficient demand from downstream food and beverage enterprises. After - market analysis shows that speculative funds have shifted from long to short and may further increase short positions, accelerating the price decline [8]. 4.2 Industry News - **India**: The chairman of the National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories (NFCSF) in India stated that the export parity price of white sugar should be $500 per ton, and that of raw sugar should be over $19 per ton [9]. - **Brazil**: As of August 16 in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, the ethanol inventory in the central - southern region was 5.52 billion liters, a 15.6% increase from the previous month but a 29.5% decrease compared to the same period in 2024. In terms of inventory structure, 58.7% is hydrous ethanol and 41.3% is anhydrous ethanol. The ethanol inventory in São Paulo, the largest production and consumption state, was 2.92 billion liters, a 16.8% increase from the previous month and a 30.3% decrease year - on - year. In July 2025, the Brazilian fuel market showed a continuous decline in ethanol consumption and a slight recovery in gasoline demand. The sales volume of hydrous ethanol in July was 1.65 billion liters, a 6.1% decrease year - on - year and a 0.3% decrease from the previous month; the gasoline sales volume was 3.78 billion liters, a 0.8% increase year - on - year and a 3% increase from the previous month. From the cumulative data, the ethanol consumption in the first seven months of 2025 was 12.23 billion liters, a 2.2% decrease compared to the same period in 2024; the cumulative gasoline sales volume was 26.06 billion liters, a 3.5% increase year - on - year. As of the week of August 27, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports was 72, up from 70 in the previous week. The quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped was 2.7221 million tons, down from 2.9169 million tons in the previous week [9]. 4.3 Data Overview - **Futures Market Data**: The report provides data on futures contracts such as SR601, SR605, US Sugar 10, and US Sugar 03, including closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, open interest, and changes in open interest [7]. - **Position Data**: The report shows the trading volume and position data of the top 20 members in the SR605 contract on September 4, 2025, including trading volume, long - position quantity, and short - position quantity and their changes [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The suppression of the bond market may ease in September, but incremental positive factors remain limited. The bond market has become gradually insensitive to the stock market since late August. Considering that the fastest - growing phase of the stock market may have passed, the suppression of the stock market on the bond market may further ease. However, there is a risk that credit - easing policies may be further intensified, and it is still difficult for monetary easing policies to be implemented. Overall, the bond market may still lack a breakthrough, and investors need to be patient and wait for better allocation value [11][12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: The stock - bond seesaw continued. The late - session plunge in the A - share market boosted the bond market sentiment, and treasury bond futures closed higher across the board. The yields of major term interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market declined, with larger declines in the medium - and long - term bonds, around 2bp. By 16:30 pm, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 was reported at 1.75%, down 1.75bp [8][9]. - **Funding Market**: At the beginning of the month, the central bank continued to withdraw funds, and the funding situation was stable. There were 3799 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities, and the central bank conducted 2291 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 1508 billion yuan. The inter - bank funding sentiment index remained stable, and most short - term funding rates fluctuated within a narrow range. The weighted overnight rate of inter - bank deposits fluctuated around 1.31%, the 7 - day rate rose slightly by about 0.4bp to 1.44%, and the medium - and long - term funds remained stable. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate changed little around 1.6% [10]. 3.2 Industry News - **Domestic News**: The work of using local government special bond funds to acquire and repurchase idle land has been continuously promoted, which has played an important role in stabilizing the real estate market. As of the end of August, the number of idle land parcels to be acquired with special bonds reached 4574, with a land area of over 230 million square meters, and the total amount of land to be acquired with special bonds exceeded 610 billion yuan, with actual special bond issuance of about 175.2 billion yuan. The 2025 semi - annual reports of banks were released. The asset quality of key areas such as personal loans and real estate remains a common pressure in the industry, but the overall risk is controllable, and the deterioration of relevant indicators is expected to slow down [13]. - **International News**: US President Trump said he would appeal to the US Supreme Court regarding the global tariff case. He believes that uncertainty causes the stock market to fall. If the tariffs are cancelled, the US may become a third - world country. The Bank of Japan's Deputy Governor said it is appropriate to continue raising interest rates. The US ISM manufacturing index in August rose slightly to 48.7, lower than expected, and the output index fell back into the contraction range. The eurozone's CPI in August rose 2.1% year - on - year, and a European Central Bank official said the central bank should suspend interest rate cuts due to upward inflation risks [13][14]. 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The report provides trading data for various treasury bond futures contracts on September 3, including pre - settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change percentage, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest [6]. - **Money Market**: Relevant charts show the term structure change and trend of SHIBOR, as well as the change in the weighted inter - bank pledged repurchase rate and the inter - bank deposit pledged repurchase rate [29][33]. - **Derivatives Market**: Charts show the Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) and the FR007 interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) [35].

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: September 4, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The SCFIS has dropped below 1800 points for seven consecutive weeks, and the online quotes in the first half of September have been further reduced, putting pressure on the October contract. However, the current main 10 - contract has a deep discount, and there was an oversold rebound on Tuesday, possibly boosted by the expectation of increased empty sailings during the National Day. But the scale of empty sailings this year has not significantly exceeded last year, and the overall shipping capacity has increased, so the boosting effect may not be strong. There may be low - buying opportunities for the December contract, and the 10 - contract is recommended to be short - sold on rallies [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Situation**: The SCFIS has been falling for seven consecutive weeks, and the online quotes in September have decreased. The price of the Shanghai - Rotterdam route shows a characteristic of smooth decline in the off - season, and the decline exceeds market expectations, bringing pressure to the October contract. The main 10 - contract has a deep discount and had an oversold rebound on Tuesday, possibly due to the expectation of increased National Day empty sailings. However, the boosting effect may be limited [8] - **Operation Suggestions**: There may be low - buying opportunities for the December contract, and the 10 - contract is recommended to be short - sold on rallies [8] 2. Industry News - **Overall Market**: From August 25th to 29th, the overall Chinese export container shipping market was stable, with different routes showing different trends due to supply - demand fundamentals, and the composite index rose slightly [9] - **European Route**: In August, the euro - area economic sentiment index was lower than expected, consumer confidence and industrial indices declined. Shipping demand lacked growth momentum, and market freight rates continued to fall. On August 29th, the Shanghai - Europe basic port market freight rate was $1481/TEU, a 11.2% decrease from the previous period [9] - **Mediterranean Route**: The market situation was similar to the European route, with weak supply - demand fundamentals and falling spot booking prices. On August 29th, the Shanghai - Mediterranean basic port market freight rate was $2145/TEU, a 3.6% decrease from the previous period [9] - **North American Route**: The US Markit manufacturing PMI in August reached the highest level since May 2022, showing strong economic performance, but there was inflation pressure. Shipping demand was stable, and market freight rates rebounded. On August 29th, the Shanghai - US West and East basic port market freight rates were $1923/FEU and $2866/FEU respectively, rising 17.0% and 9.7% from the previous period [10] - **Geopolitical News**: There were military conflicts in Yemen, with threats from the Houthi movement and Iran escalating. The US State Department held the PLO and Palestinian Authority responsible for undermining peace [10] 3. Data Overview - **Container Shipping Spot Prices** - On September 1, 2025, the SCFIS for the European route (basic ports) was 1773.6, a 10.9% decrease from August 25th; the SCFIS for the US West route (basic ports) was 1013.9, a 2.6% decrease from August 25th [12] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market** - Provided trading data for EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, and EC2608 contracts on September 3, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change [6] - **Shipping - Related Data Charts** - Included charts of Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index, container shipping futures contract trends, European container ship capacity, global container ship order backlog, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [13][17][21]

Report Information - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: September 4, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall price of iron ore is returning to fundamentals as the hype sentiment fades. In September, the price is expected to be under pressure in the early stage and may rebound later, showing a trend of being weak first and then strong [11]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Future Outlook 1.1 Spot Market Dynamics and Technical Analysis - On September 3, the main iron ore outer - market quotes increased by $1 per ton compared to the previous trading day, and the prices of major iron ore grades at Qingdao Port rose by 5 yuan per ton [9]. - The daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2601 contract shows a divergent trend, with the K and J values turning up and the D value continuing to decline, showing a potential golden cross. The green bar of the daily MACD indicator is narrowing [9]. 1.2 Future Outlook - In terms of fundamentals, last week's shipments and arrivals from Australia and Brazil increased. Considering the shipping time, the arrivals in September are expected to further recover, showing a pattern of being low in the first half and high in the second half [10]. - On the demand side, the daily average pig iron output is slightly higher and remains above 2.4 million tons. The production and demand of the five major steel products continue to rise slightly, the steel mill inventory continues to decline slightly, and the social inventory has reached a new high since early May [10]. - Market expectations of the September 3rd production restrictions may lead to a situation of weak supply and demand for steel. Since early August, steel mill profits have generally declined by 120 - 150 yuan per ton, which may suppress raw material demand to some extent, but the impact is limited [11]. - Steel mills have resumed on - demand restocking, and port inventories have accumulated, with further accumulation expected in September [11]. 2. Industry News - As of August 30, the nine major construction central enterprises announced their new contract values in the first half of 2025, with a total new contract value of approximately 7.957727 trillion yuan [12]. - On September 2, data from ISM showed that the US manufacturing activity contracted for the sixth consecutive month in August due to a decline in output. However, the new order index expanded for the first time since the beginning of the year, and the price index reached its lowest level since February, indicating a reduction in price fluctuations caused by tariffs [12]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts related to the iron ore and steel markets, including prices, trading volumes, inventories, production, and capacity utilization rates, with data sources mainly from Mysteel and the research and development department of CCB Futures [5][8][14][21][23][28][29][36][42][47]

Report Information - Report Type: Coke and Coking Coal Daily Review [1] - Date: September 4, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] 1. Market Conditions Review 1.1 Futures Market - On September 3, the main contracts of coke and coking coal futures, J2601 and JM2601, weakened after a rebound. Their closing prices reached new lows since July 21 and August 4 respectively. The closing price of J2601 was 1,594 yuan/ton, down 0.59%, with a trading volume of 18,350 lots and an open interest of 46,404 lots, an increase of 306 lots. The closing price of JM2601 was 1,106 yuan/ton, down 1.25%, with a trading volume of 1,068,419 lots and an open interest of 745,765 lots, an increase of 10,853 lots [5]. 1.2 Spot Market - On September 3, the daily KDJ indicators of coke 2601 and coking coal 2601 contracts continued to decline, and the daily MACD green bars slightly expanded. The ex - warehouse price index of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port was 1,520 yuan/ton, with no change. The ex - warehouse price index in Tangshan was 1,450 yuan/ton, also unchanged. The aggregated price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Tangshan was 1,445 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Luliang it was 1,404 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Linfen it was 1,470 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Handan it was 1,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Heze it was 1,320 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; in Pingdingshan it was 1,460 yuan/ton, unchanged [8]. 2. Future Outlook 2.1 Fundamental Analysis - **Coke**: Since mid - June, the coke output of independent coking plants has significantly declined from its high, and the coke output of steel mills has dropped to a new low since late January. Port coke inventories have declined for three consecutive weeks from their high since the end of May. Steel mills are still destocking, but last week's inventory slightly rebounded from its low since mid - December last year. Coking plant inventories have slightly increased for two consecutive weeks from their low since late October last year. Tonnage coke profit has been profitable for three consecutive weeks. After the 8th round of spot price increase for coke, it was reported that some northern steel mills plan to conduct the first round of coke price cuts on September 5 [10]. - **Coking Coal**: From January to July, China's imports of coal and lignite decreased by 1.9 percentage points year - on - year to - 13.0%, and imports of coking coal still had a large year - on - year decline of - 8.0%. After a significant decline in the inventories of refined coal and raw coal in mines in the past 9 weeks, there has been a rebound. The overall declines reached 43.2% and 32.6% respectively. However, the refined coal inventory in mines has increased for three consecutive weeks, with an increase of 15.5%, while the raw coal inventory in mines has only increased by 0.5% in the past 2 weeks. The inventory of independent coking plants has declined for four consecutive weeks from its high since early February, the steel mill inventory has slightly declined after rising to a new high since early February, and the port inventory has increased for two consecutive weeks from its low since early July last year. With high inventories in steel mills and coking plants, the spot price of coking coal is likely to decline slowly [11]. 2.2 Comprehensive Outlook - The proposed price cut in the coke spot market and the expected increase in Mongolian coal imports are negative for the double - coke industry chain. The decline in steel mills' immediate profits will further suppress the prices of double - coke from the demand side. It is recommended to expect a continued decline or weak performance in the near term. The stabilization and rebound of coal and coke futures, especially after mid - to - late September, depend on the recovery of terminal demand in the steel market [11]. 3. Industry News - On September 3, the Ministry of Finance plans to re - issue the 2025 ultra - long - term special treasury bonds (Phase III) for the second time. The re - issued bonds are 50 - year fixed - rate coupon - bearing bonds, with a competitive tender face value of 35 billion yuan [12]. - As of the end of 2024, China's installed capacity of new energy storage reached 73.76 million kilowatts/168 million kilowatt - hours, accounting for more than 40% of the global total, ranking first in the world [12]. - On August 29, the dredging project of the fifth - phase project of Huanghua Port Coal Terminal passed the pre - acceptance. The designed dredging volume was 2.7748 million cubic meters [13]. - On August 31, the 60 - megawatt Chang'an Shimenzi Wind Power Project, the first wind power project of Shaanxi Coal Group in Hunan, was fully connected to the grid [13]. - Shanxi Coking Coal responded to the impact of over - production verification, stating that its approved production capacity is 48.9 million tons/year, and it has never reached full - load production, so the over - production verification policy will not affect production and sales [13]. - In the first half of 2025, Inner Mongolia added 11.91 million kilowatts of power generation capacity, with a total installed capacity of 270 million kilowatts, and new energy installed capacity of 145 million kilowatts, an increase of 10.28 million kilowatts. Its power generation reached 416.7 billion kilowatt - hours, a year - on - year increase of 4.7% [13]. - On September 1, the autumn centralized maintenance of the Shitai Railway under the jurisdiction of China Railway Taiyuan Bureau Group Co., Ltd. began, which will last for 15 days [13]. - As of the end of August, the commercial coal output of Wuhai Energy Company reached 9.3175 million tons, a record high for the same period in the past 5 years [13]. - On September 1, the head of the National Energy Administration met with the Minister of Energy of Kazakhstan to discuss cooperation in oil and gas, renewable energy, and electricity [13]. - On September 2, the China - Shanghai Cooperation Organization Energy Cooperation Platform was inaugurated in Beijing [13]. - On September 2, the chairman of PetroChina met with the President of Kazakhstan to discuss cooperation in oil and gas, refining, and new energy [14]. - Since September, the import steam coal market has remained weak. The price advantage of imported coal has continued to narrow, and the bid price of Indonesian 3800 - kcal coal has fallen below 400 yuan/ton [14]. - Elga, a global leading high - quality coking coal producer, expects the situation of Russian coking coal producers to stabilize by the end of this year [14]. - In June 2025, Canada's coal production was 3.444 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.5% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.9% [14]. 4. Data Overview The report provides multiple data charts, including the spot price index of metallurgical coke in major markets, the aggregated spot price of main coking coal, the production and capacity utilization rate of coking plants and steel mills, the national average daily hot metal output, the coke and coking coal inventories of ports, steel mills, and coking plants, the tonnage coke profit of independent coking plants, the production and operating rate of sample mines, the refined coal and raw coal inventories of sample mines, and the basis of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke and Linfen's low - sulfur main coking coal against the January contracts [16][19][22][33][35][36].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The aluminum price shows a relatively strong trend. Although it has not emerged from the off - season, the market sentiment is positive due to the impending Fed rate cut. The subsequent performance of the consumer side during the peak season should be monitored to see if it can break through the upper space [7]. - The cast - aluminum alloy is expected to strengthen under the resonance of multiple factors, and the strategy of going long on AD and short on AL can be held [7]. - Alumina is in a weak fundamental situation, breaking through the 3000 mark and running weakly in the short - term, but the downside space is expected to be limited. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains high, the military parade may delay the peak - season time, and the inventory is still accumulating [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - The Shanghai aluminum price first rose and then fell. The main contract tested around 20,900 and then declined again, closing at 20,710 at the end of the session, with a slight drop of 0.02%. The 09 - 10 spread was at a discount of - 10, the import window remained closed, and the spot import loss was - 1,354 yuan/ton [7]. - In the spot market, the selling sentiment was better than the buying sentiment, the purchasing power of downstream enterprises was weak, and the inventory accumulation suppressed the premium [7]. - The cast - aluminum alloy fluctuated following the Shanghai aluminum price. The negative spread between AD and AL was - 415. With the approaching of the traditional peak season and the termination of the tax refund policy in the scrap - aluminum industry leading to increased costs, the cast - aluminum alloy is expected to strengthen [7]. 3.2行业要闻 - On August 10, the Shanxi Provincial Department of Natural Resources adjusted the transfer and registration authority of some mineral species, aiming to strengthen the protection of bauxite and other strategic mineral resources [8]. - On August 4, the Guinea government established Nimba Mining Company SA (NMC) to take over EGA - GAC's mining rights. The previous GAC mining area of 690.20 square kilometers has been granted to NMC for 25 years. EGA's mine in Guinea with an annual capacity of 14 million tons stopped production in December last year and had its mining license revoked in May this year [10]. - The mining right of Sanmenxia Jinjiang Mining Co., Ltd.'s Shaanzhou District Dayuantao bauxite mine was changed, with a validity period from June 4, 2025, to April 3, 2030. The designed production scale is 500,000 tons/year [10]. - Rio Tinto approved an investment of $180 million to start the Norman Creek bauxite project in Queensland. Key infrastructure construction has begun, and the project is expected to be completed in 2028 [10]. - In June 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were about 192,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.8% and a year - on - year increase of 58.7%. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum imports were about 1.2499 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.5% [10]. - In June 2025, China's primary aluminum exports were about 19,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 39.5% and a year - on - year increase of 179.4%. From January to June, the cumulative primary aluminum exports were about 86,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 206.6% [10]. - In June 2025, China's net primary aluminum imports were 172,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.4% and a year - on - year increase of 51.3%. From January to June, the cumulative net primary aluminum imports were about 1.1633 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% [10].