行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2024 年 8 月 1 日 油） 021-60635738 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：李金（甲醇） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-606355 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: August 1, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non - Ferrous Metals Research Team, including Peng Jinglin, Zhang Ping, and Yu Feifei [4] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - After the macro - favorable factors are exhausted, the commodity market continues to decline, and non - ferrous metals close down across the board. The Shanghai zinc futures price closes at 22,345 yuan/ton, down 345 yuan or 1.52%, with increased volume and reduced positions. The LME zinc inventory continues to decrease, and the注销仓单 ratio remains high. After the macro situation is settled, there is no super - expected stimulus, but the anti - involution policy is still an important policy direction. The loose pattern of zinc concentrates continues to be transmitted to the zinc ingot end, and the over - supply pressure during the off - season of demand is reflected in the inventory. The price logic may gradually return to the fundamentals, and the Shanghai zinc price still has room to decline [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: For different delivery months of Shanghai zinc futures (2508, 2509, 2510), the opening, closing, highest, and lowest prices, as well as the changes in prices and positions are presented. For example, the 2508 contract opens at 22,595 yuan/ton, closes at 22,635 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 10 yuan and a decrease in positions of 3,108 [7] - **Market Conditions**: The macro - favorable factors are exhausted, the commodity market declines, and non - ferrous metals close down. The Shanghai zinc price closes at 22,345 yuan/ton, down 345 yuan or 1.52%, with increased volume and reduced positions. The LME zinc inventory decreases by 4,250 tons to 104,800 tons, and the 0 - 3 spread is 2.69C. The market shows that after the macro situation is settled, the price logic may return to the fundamentals, and the Shanghai zinc price has room to decline [7] 3.2 Industry News - **Price and Premium Information**: On July 31, 2025, the mainstream transaction prices of different grades of zinc in different regions (Shanghai, Ningbo, Tianjin, Guangdong) are reported, along with the premium or discount information of different brands relative to different contracts and regions. For example, in Shanghai, the 0 zinc mainstream transaction price is 22,340 - 22,620 yuan/ton, and the common domestic brands offer a premium of 50 - 70 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract [8] 3.3 Data Overview - **Data Sources**: The data in the report comes from Wind, SMM, and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [12][14][15] - **Graphs**: The report mentions graphs such as the trend of zinc prices in two markets, SHFE monthly spreads, SMM seven - region zinc ingot weekly inventory, and LME zinc inventory [15][16]

Report Information - Report Title: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: August 1, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Core Viewpoint - On the 31st, black - series commodities tumbled, and Shanghai nickel showed weakness, closing below the 120,000 mark again. The main contract 2509 closed down 1.79% at 119,830, with the total open interest of the index increasing by 11,234 to 190,329 lots. The nickel surplus pattern remains unchanged, and prices declined again after the cooling of macro - sentiment. The overall surplus pattern of nickel is still significant, and the nickel price is temporarily regarded as weak [8]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - **Market Performance**: On the 31st, black - series commodities fell generally, and Shanghai nickel was weak. The main 2509 contract closed down 1.79% at 119,830, and the total open interest of the index increased by 11,234 to 190,329 lots [8]. - **Supply - side Situation**: There are expectations of loose supply from the mining ends in the Philippines and Indonesia, and the probability of subsequent decline in ore prices is high. Under the pressure of losses, some production lines in Indonesia have switched to producing high - grade nickel matte, driving a slight recovery in the low - level nickel - iron price. On the 31st, the average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel iron was reported at 912.5 yuan per nickel point, but the acceptance of high - price nickel ore remains low [8]. - **Demand - side Situation**: The stainless - steel market is still weak, in the traditional off - season of consumption with high inventory. As the nickel - iron price rises, some downstream enterprises prefer to purchase scrap stainless steel for production, and the acceptance of high - nickel pig iron prices is also poor. The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate remained flat at 27,370 yuan per ton on the 31st, and it stopped falling and rebounded in the short term supported by the rigid replenishment demand of precursors and the low inventory of nickel salt plants [8]. 2. Industry News - **Indonesian Investment**: Indonesia's national investment management agency Danantara is exploring investment opportunities in the nickel downstream industry. It is considering acquiring the PT Gunbuster Nickel Industry (GNI) smelter. Danantara expects to prepare an investment plan of over $20 billion and provide about $60 million in medium - term financing through a syndicated loan [9][10]. - **Battery Energy Storage**: Bulgaria officially launched the largest - scale operating battery energy storage system in the EU, with a capacity of 124 megawatts/496.2 megawatt - hours. Renewable energy storage company Apatura has obtained planning permission for a 100 - megawatt battery energy storage system (BESS) project in Scotland, and its approved total energy storage capacity has exceeded 1.6 gigawatts [10]. - **Solar Cell Innovation**: A research team in Turkey developed a TOPCon solar cell using nickel (Ni) contacts with almost no silver (Ag), achieving nearly the same efficiency while significantly reducing silver usage, which is expected to reduce production costs and improve sustainability and scalability [10].

Report Information Report Title - "National Debt Daily" [1] Report Date - August 1, 2025 [2] Researchers - He Zhuoqiao (Macro Precious Metals), contact: 18665641296, email: hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3008762 [3] - Huang Wenxin (National Debt and Container Shipping), contact: 021 - 60635739, email: huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3051589 [3] - Nie Jiayi (Stock Index), contact: 021 - 60635735, email: niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F03124070 [3] Key Points Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Report Core View - Since mid - late July, market risk preference has significantly increased. The strong performance of the stock market, the recovery of commodities, and the rising inflation expectations have pressured the bond market. However, the bond market did not experience a panic - driven decline. The long - term bullish environment for the bond market remains unchanged due to the potential economic downturn and the room for monetary easing. The third quarter is likely a policy observation period [11][12] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: Commodity price drops dragged down cyclical stocks and the stock market, cooling inflation expectations and leading to a full - line rebound in national debt futures. The yields of major term interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market all rose by about 1 - 2bp, while the yield of the 10 - year active bond 250011 dropped by 1.6bp to 1.7040% [8][9] - **Funding Market**: Cross - month funds were abundant, and the central bank shifted to a net withdrawal. There were 3310 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, and the central bank conducted 2832 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 478 billion yuan. Short - term interest rates rose slightly but remained at a loose level, and medium - and long - term funds were stable and abundant [10] - **Conclusion**: The bond market adjustment was not a panic - driven decline. The sustainability of the rally in cyclical stocks and commodities is questionable. If economic growth and inflation expectations are revised, the bond market will recover. In the long run, the bullish environment for the bond market remains unchanged, but the third quarter is likely a policy observation period [11][12] 2. Industry News - **Macro Data**: China's official non - manufacturing PMI in July was 50.1, down 0.4 percentage points month - on - month but still above the critical point. The official manufacturing PMI was 49.3, down 0.4 percentage points, and the composite PMI output index was 50.2, down 0.5 percentage points, indicating that overall business activities remained in an expansionary range [13] - **Macro Policy**: The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee in October. It emphasized maintaining policy continuity and stability, implementing a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and taking various measures to support the economy and resolve risks [14] 3. Data Overview - **National Debt Futures Market**: Data on trading, including opening prices, closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, trading volumes, open interests, etc., of various national debt futures contracts on July 31 were presented [6] - **Money Market**: Information on SHIBOR term structure changes, SHIBOR trends, inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted interest rate changes, and silver - deposit inter - bank pledged repurchase rate changes was provided [28][32] - **Derivatives Market**: Information on Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curves and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curves was provided [34]

Report Information - Report Title: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: August 1, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - With the further cooling of the "anti-involution" logic, aluminum industry chain varieties continued to correct. Shanghai aluminum 2509 closed down 0.53% at 20,510, the total index positions decreased by 18,206 to 591,031 lots, and the 08-09 premium widened 30 to 70; cast aluminum alloy adjusted narrowly following Shanghai aluminum, with the AD-AL negative spread at -505. Alumina fluctuated greatly due to the anti-involution logic, dropping 4.05% intraday to 3,222 [8]. - Fundamentally, the supply of bauxite is gradually tightening, and the impact of the previous rainy season in Guinea and mine rights suspension is expected to gradually appear in August, providing bottom support for ore prices; on the 31st, with the sharp drop in the alumina futures price, the futures-spot arbitrage window was almost closed, and the spot demand for deliverable products may weaken. Coupled with the temporary cooling of anti-involution trading, alumina adjusted at a high level. If there is a high point, appropriate short positions can be taken [8]. - In the cast aluminum sector, it is currently the off-season for the automotive industry. Demand has weakened while the supply of scrap aluminum is in short supply. Under the double weakness of supply and demand, cast aluminum continued to fluctuate in a range following Shanghai aluminum, and the AD-AL maintained a low negative spread structure [8]. - At the electrolytic aluminum end, the domestic operating capacity remains at a high level, and the demand side in the off-season continues to be sluggish. The operating rate of the aluminum processing sector remains weak. Considering the high smelting profit of aluminum and the significant inhibitory effect of the absolute high price on terminal consumption after the price increase, the current macro logic dominates the fluctuation of aluminum prices. If there is a rebound, appropriate short positions can be taken [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Shanghai aluminum 2509 closed down 0.53% at 20,510, the total index positions decreased by 18,206 to 591,031 lots, and the 08-09 premium widened 30 to 70; cast aluminum alloy adjusted narrowly following Shanghai aluminum, with the AD-AL negative spread at -505. Alumina dropped 4.05% intraday to 3,222 [8]. - Bauxite supply is gradually tightening, and the impact of the previous rainy season in Guinea and mine rights suspension is expected to gradually appear in August, providing bottom support for ore prices [8]. - On the 31st, with the sharp drop in the alumina futures price, the futures-spot arbitrage window was almost closed, and the spot demand for deliverable products may weaken. Coupled with the temporary cooling of anti-involution trading, alumina adjusted at a high level. If there is a high point, appropriate short positions can be taken [8]. - It is currently the off-season for the automotive industry. Demand has weakened while the supply of scrap aluminum is in short supply. Under the double weakness of supply and demand, cast aluminum continued to fluctuate in a range following Shanghai aluminum, and the AD-AL maintained a low negative spread structure [8]. - The domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains at a high level, and the demand side in the off-season continues to be sluggish. The operating rate of the aluminum processing sector remains weak. Considering the high smelting profit of aluminum and the significant inhibitory effect of the absolute high price on terminal consumption after the price increase, the current macro logic dominates the fluctuation of aluminum prices. If there is a rebound, appropriate short positions can be taken [8]. 2. Industry News - Ghana has canceled a $1.2 billion bauxite agreement with local company Rocksure International and is seeking to cooperate with a large overseas company to develop one of the richest bauxite deposits in West Africa. Potential partners include the United Arab Emirates Global Aluminium Company (EGA) based in Dubai or a Chinese company [9]. - In June 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were approximately 192,400 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 13.8% and a year-on-year increase of 58.7%. From January to June, the cumulative total primary aluminum imports were approximately 1.2499 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. In June 2025, China's primary aluminum exports were approximately 19,600 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 39.5% and a year-on-year increase of 179.4%; from January to June, the cumulative total primary aluminum exports were approximately 86,600 tons, a year-on-year increase of about 206.6%. In June 2025, China's net primary aluminum imports were 172,700 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 9.4% and a year-on-year increase of 51.3%. From January to June, the cumulative net primary aluminum imports were approximately 1.1633 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.3% [10]. - On the evening of July 17, 2025, Guinea's national television announced a ministerial order signed by the Ministry of Mines and Geology, officially revoking the exploration and mining licenses of 45 mining companies, including six bauxite enterprises. After verification by SMM, the revoked bauxite enterprises all had long-idle mine rights and no actual mining activities. The official said that these mine rights were taken back by the state without compensation. This action was part of a comprehensive rectification of the national mining registration system, aiming to comprehensively improve the transparency and standardization of mineral resource management [10]. - Alcoa expects its San Ciprián aluminum smelter in Spain to restart in mid-2026, and the expected delay will result in losses of up to $110 million. Due to high electricity prices, the plant's production decreased in 2021. The smelter was originally in the process of restarting, but due to a nationwide power outage in Spain on April 28, both the electrolytic aluminum plant and the adjacent alumina plant were affected, and the restart plan was postponed. The electrolytic aluminum plant has an electrolytic aluminum production capacity of 228,000 tons. After evaluating the power outage losses, the joint venture suspended the resumption of production at the smelter until the Spanish government provided detailed information on the cause of the power outage and the measures taken to prevent similar incidents from happening again. On July 14, Alcoa and its joint venture partner Ignis Equity Holdings confirmed that the restart work of the San Ciprián electrolytic aluminum plant in Spain, which was suspended due to the previous nationwide power outage, had restarted. Alcoa expects the smelter to record a net loss of approximately $90 million to $110 million in 2025, and the entire restart process is expected to be completed by mid-2026 [10][11]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Carbonate Lithium Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: August 1, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - The carbonate lithium futures continued to decline, hitting a low of 66,720. The spot price was relatively resistant to decline, with the electric carbon price dropping by 950 to 72,000. The spot price remained at a premium to the futures price. The downstream market was still cautious, and the actual trading volume did not increase significantly. The ore price followed the decline, and the production profit of salt factories using spodumene decreased, while the loss of those using mica increased. The supply was expected to remain high in the short term, and the fundamentals were not supportive of the price. The futures price mainly followed the market's trading of the anti - involution logic, and the downside space was expected to be limited due to the spot price being higher than the futures price [11] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Trend: The carbonate lithium futures continued to decline and closed with a long lower - shadow doji. The lowest price of the main contract reached 66,720 [11] - Spot Market: The electric carbon price dropped by 950 to 72,000, and the spot price was at a premium to the futures price. The downstream inquiry activity increased, but the actual trading volume did not increase proportionally, and the downstream mainly made rigid - demand purchases [11] - Ore Price: The Australian ore price dropped by 17.5 to 762.5 US dollars per ton, and the mica price dropped by 25 to 1,750 yuan per ton. The production profit of salt factories using spodumene decreased to 2,075, and the loss of those using mica expanded to 7,136 [11] - Supply Outlook: The production of carbonate lithium from spodumene was expected to increase further, while the production from mica needed to monitor the shutdown situation in Jiangxi. The supply was expected to remain high in the short term [11] Group 5: Industry News - Ningde Times: In Q2 2025, its combined sales of power and energy storage batteries were close to 150 GWh, a year - on - year increase of over 30%. The energy storage accounted for about 20%. It had over 10 years of R & D experience in solid - state batteries and had an industry - leading R & D team. The scientific problems in the solid - state battery industry were basically solved, but commercialization was still some way off [14] - South Korean Electronics Company and Tesla: A South Korean electronics company reached a 4.3 - billion - dollar supply agreement with Tesla to supply LFP energy storage batteries from 2027 for a three - year period with an option to extend to seven years. The batteries will be produced in a Michigan factory, helping Tesla reduce its dependence on Chinese - imported batteries. The South Korean company planned to increase its North American energy storage battery production capacity to 30 GWh by 2026 [14][15]

研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 8 月 1 日 现货方面，旺季高点应已显现，本周 SCFIS 进一步回落至 2400 点以下，从电 商平台报价来看，多数船司小幅下调 7 月下旬报价，目前集中在 3400~3500 区间， 整体来看较为稳定。8 月报价陆续出炉，马士基第一、二、三周分别报 3214 美元、 3092 美元、2850 美元，其余航司多集中在 3400~3600 美元，基本维持在 7 月末水 平，或显示继续挺价意愿不足。参考近年规律，旺季高点一般在 7 月第三周显现， 8 月下旬运价基本将回到 7 月初水平 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol (MEG) is weak, and with the weakening of macro - positive support, the short - term price of MEG is expected to continue the weak trend. Investors should pay attention to short - selling opportunities [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On the 31st, the main contract 2509 of ethylene glycol futures opened at 4440 yuan/ton, reached a high of 4468 yuan/ton, a low of 4406 yuan/ton, settled at 4432 yuan/ton, and closed at 4414 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan from the previous trading day's settlement price. The total volume was 136,468 lots, and the open interest was 245,445 lots. The EG2601 contract closed at 4441 yuan/ton, down 54 yuan, with an open interest of 29,986 lots, an increase of 2449 lots [7]. 3.2. Industry News - International oil prices rose for three consecutive days due to investors' attention to Trump's more urgent deadline for ending the Ukraine conflict, tariff threats to oil - trading countries, optimism about US agreements with the EU and Japan, and the better - than - expected increase in US Q2 GDP. However, after Fed Chairman Powell's speech on maintaining interest rates, the US dollar index rose, and European and American crude oil futures slightly declined after the market. On Wednesday (July 30), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for September 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $70.00 per barrel, up $0.79 or 1.14% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $68.45 - $70.51. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $73.24 per barrel, up $0.73 or 1.01% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $71.75 - $73.63 [8]. - In the Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol market, the spot negotiation price this week was 4479 - 4481 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The negotiation price for next - week's spot was 4479 - 4484 yuan/ton, and that for late August was 4479 - 4484 yuan/ton. The basis of this week's spot was at a premium of 65 - 67 yuan/ton compared to EG2509, next - week's spot was at a premium of 65 - 70 yuan/ton, and the basis for late August was at a premium of 65 - 70 yuan/ton [8]. 3.3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including MEG futures prices, spot - futures price differences, international crude oil futures main - contract closing prices, raw material price indices (ethylene), PTA - MEG price differences, MEG prices, MEG downstream product prices, and MEG downstream product inventories, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][15][16].

Report Information - Report Type: Coke and Coking Coal Daily Review [1] - Date: August 1, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] 1. Market Performance Summary 1.1 Futures Contracts Performance - On July 31, the main contract 2509 of coke futures significantly declined, erasing the gains from the previous two trading days or since July 22. The main contract 2509 of coking coal futures oscillated downward and hit the daily limit in the afternoon, erasing all gains since July 23. The closing price of J2509 was 1601 yuan/ton, down 4.93%, with a trading volume of 42,135 lots and a position volume of 28,705 lots, a decrease of 653 lots. The closing price of JM2509 was 1045.5 yuan/ton, down 7.97%, with a trading volume of 987,871 lots and a position volume of 284,647 lots, a decrease of 23,096 lots [5]. 1.2 Black - Series Futures Position - The position data of the top 20 long and short positions in black - series futures on July 31 showed different changes in various contracts. For example, in the RB2510 contract, the top 20 long positions decreased by 174,240 lots, and the top 20 short positions decreased by 122,370 lots, with a long - short difference of - 51,870 lots and a deviation of - 4.51% [6]. 2. Spot Market and Technical Analysis 2.1 Spot Market Prices - On July 31, the quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke flat - price index in Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port was 1420 yuan/ton, with no change. The low - sulfur main coking coal aggregate price in different regions had different performances, with the price in Lvliang increasing by 80 yuan/ton [8]. 2.2 Technical Indicators - On July 31, the daily KDJ indicators of the 2509 contracts of coke and coking coal both declined. The daily MACD red bars of the 2509 contracts of coke and coking coal narrowed for 4 consecutive trading days, and the daily MACD of the coke 2509 contract was nearly a death cross [8]. 3. Market Outlook 3.1 Coke Market - The coke production of independent coking plants has been rising for two consecutive weeks, reaching a new low since early April. The coke production of steel mills has slightly increased from the low point since late February. The coke inventories of ports and steel mills are hovering at low levels since early March and late December last year respectively, while the coking plant inventory has declined for 7 consecutive weeks, reaching a new low since early January. The profit per ton of coke has been in the red for 10 consecutive weeks, and the third round of coke spot price increases was implemented on July 25 [10]. 3.2 Coking Coal Market - From January to June, China's coking coal imports still maintained a large year - on - year decline of - 7.4%. In the past 6 weeks, the raw coal and clean coal inventories of coal washing plants have significantly declined, with decreases of 13.0% and 30.2% respectively. The inventory of independent coking plants has been rising significantly for 5 consecutive weeks, reaching a new high since early February. The port inventory has returned to the previous low - level range, and the steel mill inventory has increased for 2 consecutive weeks. With the continuous increase in steel mill inventory, coking plants have actively and significantly replenished their stocks, and the coking coal spot price has generally increased by 130 - 280 yuan/ton compared with late June [10]. 3.3 Overall Outlook - Checking coal mine production is beneficial for stabilizing coal supply and effectively managing the low - price and disorderly competition in the coal industry. The supply - demand expectation in the coal market has changed from oversupply before June to a contraction in domestic supply. After the recent significant rebound and subsequent decline in coke and coking coal futures prices, in the short term, their prices may follow steel futures. Attention should be paid to the changes in the supply - demand relationship in the coke market after the implementation of the third round of coke spot price increases and the increase or decrease in coking plants' coking coal inventory. If the demand weakens after the third round of coke price increases or the coking plants' coking coal inventory starts to decline significantly, the future market for coking products may not be optimistic. If the demand remains good or even increases after the third round of price increases, or the coking plants' coking coal inventory remains stable or continues to be replenished, there is still a possibility of a further increase in the future market for coking products [11]. 4. Industry News 4.1 Government Policies and Market Conditions - In June 2025, the national issuance of new bonds was 628.1 billion yuan, including 101 billion yuan of general bonds and 527.1 billion yuan of special bonds. The issuance of refinancing bonds was 547.2 billion yuan, including 267.4 billion yuan of general bonds and 279.8 billion yuan of special bonds. As of the end of June 2025, the national local government debt balance was 51.9503 trillion yuan [12]. - The deputy director of the General Affairs Department of the National Energy Administration, Zhang Xing, stated on July 31 that since this year, the coal market in China has been generally balanced with a slight oversupply. Since July, the daily scheduled coal production has remained above 12 million tons. Currently, the coal inventory of national unified - dispatch power plants exceeds 200 million tons, which can be used for 30 days. The National Energy Administration will guide coal - producing provinces and enterprises to continue to organize production, scientifically formulate production plans, and ensure coal supply [12][13]. - In the first half of 2025, the national power market operated smoothly, with the scale of market - traded electricity and the number of market players continuing to grow steadily. The total market - traded electricity of all power trading centers was 2.95 trillion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. As of the end of June, the number of national power market business entities was 973,000, a year - on - year increase of 23.8% [13]. - In the first half of this year, China's energy infrastructure construction maintained a good momentum. The investment in key energy projects under construction and planned to start this year exceeded 1.5 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 21.6%. The investment growth rates in the eastern, central, and western regions all exceeded 20%, and private enterprise investment maintained rapid growth [13]. 4.2 Company Announcements - In the first half of 2025, China Energy Investment Corporation completed coal production and sales of 374 million tons, power generation of 580.6 billion kWh, railway freight volume of 276 million tons, and chemical product output of 13.55 million tons [13]. - In the second quarter of 2025, Jiantou Energy completed power generation of 11.615 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 0.67%, and completed on - grid electricity of 10.764 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 1%. The company expects its operating performance in the first half of 2025 to increase significantly year - on - year [13]. - Gansu Energy Chemical Industry's Wangjiashan Coal Mine No. 1 Well has been approved to resume production [14]. - Wanneng Electric Power's coal procurement cost in the second quarter decreased more significantly year - on - year compared with the first quarter. The company's total installed capacity exceeds 17 million kilowatts, and it is currently not considering absorbing and merging its affiliated power plants, while its new energy projects are progressing as expected [14]. - In the first half of 2025, Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co., Ltd. produced 14.5297 million tons of raw coal, a year - on - year increase of 2.26%. The sales volume of commercial coal was 11.7369 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.98% [14]. 4.3 International Market Forecast - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that global electricity demand will increase by 3.3% and 3.7% in 2025 and 2026 respectively, more than twice the growth rate of total energy demand in the same period [14]. 5. Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including the spot price index of metallurgical coke in major markets, the aggregate price of main coking coal in major markets, the production and capacity utilization rate of coking plants and steel mills, national average daily pig iron production, coke inventories of ports/steel mills/coking plants, independent coking plant's profit per ton of coke, production and operating rate of coal washing plants, raw coal and clean coal inventories of coal washing plants, coking coal inventories of ports/coking plants/steel mills, and the basis between Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke and the September contract, as well as the basis between Linfen's low - sulfur main coking coal and the September contract [15][17][21][29][30][33]

1. Report Date - The report is dated August 1, 2025 [2] 2. Research Team - The Energy and Chemical Research Team includes researchers such as Li Jie, CFA (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil), Ren Junchi (PTA/MEG), Peng Haozhou (Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon), Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), and Liu Youran (Pulp) [3] 3. Market Performance and Outlook Market Performance - Polysilicon contracts saw significant declines. The closing price of PS2509 was 49,130 yuan/ton, a drop of 7.81%. The trading volume was 565,838 lots, and the open interest was 126,989 lots, with a net decrease of 37,501 lots [4] Outlook - The exchange has issued frequent position - limit notices to cool down the overheated sentiment, leading to a decline in capital risk appetite. The market is expected to be mainly in wide - range fluctuations. In July, polysilicon supply will increase to 10 - 110,000 tons, and the downstream cell production schedule is around 50GW. Supply and demand maintain a loose balance without a de - stocking drive. The June photovoltaic installation volume (14GW) fulfilled the expectation of weak demand in the second half of the year, and the total terminal demand will drop to around 45GW. Overall, recent price movements share the same causes, with comprehensive costs and spot prices providing rigid support at the bottom, and wide - range fluctuations are the main trend [4] 4. Market News - On July 31, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 3,200 lots, an increase of 130 lots from the previous trading day [5] - In June 2025, China's industrial silicon exports reached 68,300 tons, a month - on - month surge of 23% and a year - on - year increase of 12%, hitting a new high in 18 months. Exports to Southeast Asia accounted for 58%, with Thailand (21,000 tons) and Malaysia (18,000 tons) being the main incremental markets, mainly used for local photovoltaic module production [5] - As of the end of June, the cumulative installed power generation capacity nationwide was 3.65 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.7%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.1 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 54.2%. From January to June, the cumulative photovoltaic installation volume was 212.21GW, a year - on - year increase of 107.07%, but the domestic installation volume in June was only 14GW, showing a significant decline [5]