行业 白糖日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 23 日 研究员：王海峰 021-60635728 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635732 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：洪辰亮 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：期货行情 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 收盘价（元/吨 美分/磅） | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 持仓 ...

021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 行业 聚烯烃日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 23 日 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 二、行业要闻 请阅读正文后的声明- 2 - 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业硅） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后 ...

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2025 年 12 月 22 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 美国公布的 11 月就业与通胀数据整体偏弱，美联储降息预期重新发酵打压美 元指数并刺激贵金属市场，近期贵金属价格仍然易涨难跌；广期所对铂钯期货实 施交易限额风险管理措施，意在为近期飙升的工业贵金属市场降温。总体看在美 联储宽松货币政策和全球增长前景改善等因素影响下，近期贵金属板块将继续偏 强运行，建议投资者继续持偏多思路参与贵金属交易，空头套保者适当降低仓位 规模，关注美国经济就业通胀形势对美联储降息预期的影响。 | 表1： | 国内贵金属行 ...

Industry - The industry under research is the egg industry [1] Report Date - The report was published on December 22, 2025 [2] Research Team - The research team consists of Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Investment Rating - No investment rating was provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the spot price of eggs is expected to fluctuate slightly, with neither significant upward nor downward trends. The futures market has already priced in the expected increase in egg prices due to the decline in next year's egg - laying hen inventory. It is recommended that long - position investors wait for the far - month contracts to fully adjust before entering the market and adopt a rolling operation strategy. The near - month contracts may experience low - level fluctuations, awaiting guidance from the spot price increase in January [8] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: On the reporting day, the national egg price remained stable. The average price in the main production areas was 3.05 yuan per catty, unchanged from the previous day, and the average price in the main sales areas was 3.32 yuan per catty, also unchanged. The 01 contract rose 0.26%. The 2601 contract closed at 3077, up 8 or 0.26%; the 2602 contract closed at 2886, down 30 or - 1.03%; the 2603 contract closed at 2946, down 35 or - 1.17% [7] - **Operation Suggestions**: Wait for the far - month contracts to fully adjust before entering the market with long positions and use a rolling operation strategy. The near - month contracts may experience low - level fluctuations, waiting for the spot price increase in January to guide them [8] 2. Industry News - **Inventory**: As of the end of November 2025, the national monthly inventory of laying hens was about 1.352 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.52%, ending the previous continuous growth. However, it was still 5.3% higher than the same period last year, indicating significant supply - side pressure [9] - **Replenishment**: In November 2025, the monthly output of laying hen chicks from sample enterprises was about 39.55 million, slightly higher than 39.15 million in October but 13.5% lower than the same period in 2024. The total replenishment from August to November 2025 was about 157.71 million, compared with about 180.11 million in the same period last year [9] 3. Data Overview - **Elimination Volume**: As of December 18, the national chicken culling volume in the previous three weeks was 20.82 million, 19.84 million, and 19.67 million respectively, showing a continuous downward trend [17] - **Elimination Age**: As of December 18, the average age of culled chickens was 486 days, unchanged from the previous week but 6 days earlier than the previous month [17]

行业 豆粕 日期 2025 年 12 月 22 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 请阅读正文后的声明 - 2 - 1 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 行业 有色金属周报 日期 2025 年 12 月 19 日 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 | ♡ 위히 | \\ | | --- | --- | | | ウ咲酸缶 | | ப | 片 72 . | | | //\ www.unwu | 有色周报 铜 一、行情回顾与操作建议 本周沪铜主力运行区间在（90840、94500），总持仓为 63.19 万手，较上周 下降 2.3%，盘面价差结构近月价差为-180。现货市场，临近年末持货商抛售叠加， 国内铜现货升水重心下移，周五转为贴水 160。本周铜价高位震荡运行，宏观面 周五日央行如期加息 25BP，将基本利率上调至 0.75%，在此之前内外股 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Energy and Chemical Weekly Report [1] - Date: December 19, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Views - Crude oil: Short - term fundamentals are neutral, with prices expected to fluctuate. Medium - term supply pressure may lead to price declines. Consider reverse arbitrage [7][8]. - Asphalt: Without obvious drivers, it is expected to continue to fluctuate [29][30]. - Polyester: PTA is expected to run warmly, while ethylene glycol will maintain low - level fluctuations [58][59]. - Short - fiber: Prices may increase due to improved cost support and stalemate in supply and demand [68][70]. - Soda ash: In the short term, the market may continue to grind at the bottom and fluctuate. In the medium - to - long term, adopt a bearish view on rebounds [72][75]. - Polysilicon: Continue to run cautiously and strongly in the short term, with support at around 58,000 yuan/ton [94][95]. - Industrial silicon: The spot price remains stable, and the supply - demand pattern is loose. The price of the 05 contract is expected to move between 8,500 - 9,000 yuan, and a bearish approach should be taken above 9,000 yuan [116][117]. - Rubber: The natural rubber market may show range - bound fluctuations. Pay attention to inventory and downstream开工 rate changes [129][133]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Review and Operation Suggestion** - WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil prices all declined this week. Geopolitical factors and inventory data are neutral. In the short term, prices are expected to fluctuate, and in the medium term, there is downward pressure. Consider reverse arbitrage [7][8]. - **Fundamental Changes** - Geopolitical situation: The US strengthened sanctions on Venezuelan crude oil, affecting about 400,000 barrels per day. Other buyers may increase purchases of other sanctioned oil types [9]. - Inventory data: US crude oil inventories declined, while refined oil inventories increased. The IEA and EIA have different views on supply and demand forecasts, and the supply surplus in the fourth quarter has deepened [10][11]. Asphalt - **Market Review and Operation Suggestion** - The asphalt futures price declined slightly this week. The supply side may see a slight decline in the start - up rate, and the demand side is weak due to cold weather. It is expected to continue to fluctuate [29][30]. - **Fundamental Changes** - Cost side: US sanctions on Venezuelan crude oil have a greater impact on the asphalt market. Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and decline in the medium term [31]. - Spot market: Prices in most regions declined, with sufficient supply in the south and weakening demand in the north [31][32]. - Supply side: The overall start - up rate of asphalt plants declined slightly, but it is expected to rise slightly next week [32]. - Profit side: Production profits increased slightly in the short term but are under pressure in the medium - to - long term [33]. - Demand side: Demand shows regional differentiation, with "stable in the north and weak in the south" [33]. - Inventory side: Factory inventories increased slightly, while social inventories decreased slightly [33]. Polyester - **Market Review and Operation Suggestion** - PTA was weak last week but may run warmly this week. Ethylene glycol prices declined last week and are expected to maintain low - level fluctuations this week [58][59]. - **Main Driving Forces** - Downstream consumption: Demand is expected to be stable this week, and polyester load may increase slightly in the short term but has a seasonal weakening trend [60]. - PTA: Supply may increase slightly this week. PX prices are expected to be firm, and PTA is expected to run warmly [61][62]. - MEG: The start - up rate decreased slightly last week, and port inventories may increase slightly. It is expected to maintain low - level fluctuations [63][64]. Short - fiber - **Market Review and Operation Suggestion** - The price of polyester short - fiber fluctuated narrowly last week and may increase this week due to improved cost support and stalemate in supply and demand [68]. - **Main Driving Forces** - Downstream consumption: The start - up rate of short - fiber downstream yarn mills is expected to weaken, and consumption support is expected to decline [69]. - Short - fiber: The start - up rate was stable last week and is expected to remain so this week. Supply is sufficient, but cost support has improved, so prices may increase [70]. Soda Ash - **Market Review and Operation Suggestion** - The soda ash futures price was weak this week. The supply side is increasing, and the demand side is weak. It is not recommended to go long in the short term, and a bearish view on rebounds should be adopted in the medium - to - long term [72][75]. - **Soda Ash Market Situation** - Supply: The start - up rate and output have increased, and supply pressure is rising. Pay attention to policy changes [76]. - Inventory: The inventory has decreased, but the sustainability is uncertain, and the core contradiction of supply - demand imbalance remains [78][84]. - Spot: The spot price is expected to fluctuate narrowly between 1,200 - 1,300 yuan/ton, with a weak balance in supply and demand [85]. - Downstream: The demand for soda ash is limited due to the weak supply - demand situation of float glass. The photovoltaic glass market is also under pressure [87][88]. Polysilicon - **Polysilicon Market Review and Outlook** - The polysilicon price fluctuated narrowly this week. The futures price showed a bullish pattern, but the short - term spot price increase faces downstream resistance. It is expected to run cautiously and strongly in the short term [94][95]. - **Photovoltaic Industry Fundamentals** - The "polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform" has been established. The prices of some products in the photovoltaic industry chain are strong, but the terminal demand has not recovered [96][98]. Industrial Silicon - **Industrial Silicon Futures Review and Outlook** - The industrial silicon futures price rebounded in a "V" shape this week. The spot price is stable, and the supply - demand pattern is loose. The price of the 05 contract is expected to move between 8,500 - 9,000 yuan [116][117]. - **Industrial Silicon Fundamentals** - Supply: Production has entered a seasonal low, and the output in the southwest has limited room for further decline [118]. - Demand: The demand for polysilicon and organic silicon has decreased, and the supply - demand pattern is loose. Exports are stable [119][120]. - Inventory: The spot inventory is slowly accumulating, and the futures inventory is out of storage [120]. Rubber - **Market Review and Operation Suggestion** - The Shanghai rubber price fluctuated narrowly this week. The supply side is decreasing in China but increasing overseas. The demand side is weak, and the inventory is high. It is expected to show range - bound fluctuations [129][133]. - **Rubber Market Situation** - Supply: Domestic production has decreased, while overseas production is increasing. The supply surplus overseas suppresses the market [135][136]. - Import and Export: The import volume in November increased, and the arrival pressure is high [141]. - Inventory: The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the social inventory have increased [146]. - Downstream Enterprises: The start - up rate of all - steel tires increased slightly, while that of semi - steel tires decreased slightly. The terminal demand is weak [148][151]. - Terminal Consumption: The automobile production and sales in November increased year - on - year and month - on - month [155].

021-60635736 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3033782 交易咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 交易咨询证书号： Z0023472 报告类型 黑色金属周报 日期 2025 年 12 月 19 日 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 黑色品种研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 请阅读正文后的声明 周度报告 黑色品种策略推荐 | |  | | 黑色品种策略推荐 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表 | 1：黑色品种投资策略（仅供参考） | | | | | 策略 | 标的 | 最新 | 策略 | 主导因素 | | 类型 | | 价格 | 方向 | | | | | | | 政策面对部分钢铁产品实施出口许可证管理但预计对明年钢材 | | | RB2605 单 | 3119 | | 出口影响有限+五大材 ...

类别 宏观贵金属周报 宏观金融研究团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 020-38909340 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 日期 2025 年 12 月 19 日 工业贵金属市场多头氛围浓厚 请阅读正文后的声明 周度报告 一、宏观环境评述 1.1 经济：中国 11 月经济仍然偏弱 由于财政刺激退坡以及基数效应减弱等原因，2025 年 11 月中国经济增长动 能继续偏弱。2025 年 1-11 月份中国城镇固定资产投资累积 44.4 万亿元，累积同 比萎缩 2.6%，萎缩程度较 1-10 月份扩大 0.9 个百分点，主要受国际贸易紧张形 势与国内房地产周期下行的双重影响。其中制造业投资累积同比增长 1.9%，增速 较 1-10 月份放缓 0.8 个百分点，且显 ...

行业 金融期货周报 日期 2025 年 12 月 19 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ |  国债 3 - | - | | --- | --- | | 一、本周市场回顾 - 3 - | | | 二、市场分析 - - | 12 | | 三、下周公开市场到期与重要经济日历一览 - - | 14 | |  航运指数 - - | 15 | | 一、市场回顾 - - | 15 | | 二、集运市场情况 - - | 16 | | 三、市场展望 - 18 - | | 周报 国债 一、本周市场回顾 1、国债期货市场 国债期货本周交易数据汇总（截至 12.18） | ...