行业 MEG 日报 日期 2025 年 07 月 22 日 料油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 业硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工 研究员：彭婧霖（聚 ...

行业 PTA 日报 日期 2025 年 07 月 22 日 请阅读正文后的声明 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The international trade and monetary system restructuring and reserve diversification needs will support the long - term bull market of gold, and Trump's reforms and economic conditions will support the medium - term bull market. However, high price and PE ratio lead to increased volatility, and in Q3, attention should be paid to the impact of the US fiscal expansion bill and inflation on the Fed's interest - rate cut timing. It is recommended that investors maintain a long - term view and participate in trading with medium - low positions [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook - **Intraday Market**: US economic data support the Fed to delay interest - rate cuts, which pressures gold prices. But the easing of Sino - US trade relations and overseas economic recovery weaken the US dollar's safe - haven demand, supporting gold prices. London gold oscillates between $3300 - 3380 per ounce, and silver with strong industrial attributes rises. Gold's safe - haven demand is boosted by Trump's new policy. It is recommended to hold a long - term view and participate in trading with medium - low positions [4]. - **Medium - term Market**: Since late April, London gold has been oscillating between $3100 - 3500 per ounce. International trade situation and US fiscal expansion reduce gold's demand, but Trump's new policy and geopolitical risks support it. In June, speculative funds flowed into silver and platinum markets, and the gold - silver ratio has returned to the level before April. It is expected that London gold will continue to oscillate between $3120 - 3500 per ounce in the short term. Investors are advised to hold a long - term view and participate with medium - low positions. Short - term investors can consider "long gold, short silver" arbitrage opportunities [5]. II. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts The report provides multiple charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, Shanghai futures index basis against Shanghai Gold T + D, and gold and silver ETF holdings, with data from Wind and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [7][9][11]. III. Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - US retail sales in June rebounded more than expected, and initial jobless claims reached the lowest level since April, providing reasons for the Fed to delay interest - rate cuts [17]. - The US will impose a 93.5% preliminary anti - dumping duty on anode - grade graphite imported from China [17]. - Different Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts. Daly expects two rate cuts by the end of the year, Waller believes the Fed should cut rates at the end of the month, while Kugler thinks the Fed should not cut rates for some time [18].

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: July 18, 2025 [2] - Researcher: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Core View - The economic data released this week is basically in line with expectations. Although the economy grew by 5.3% in the first half of the year, achieving the 5% annual target remains challenging if exports decline significantly. The economic structure shows that external demand drives strong production, while domestic consumption weakens marginally and the real estate sector undergoes in - depth adjustment. The foundation for economic recovery needs to be consolidated. Considering the short - term economic resilience, the third quarter is expected to be a policy observation period, and the possibility of further monetary easing may increase in October after the economic recovery situation in the third quarter becomes clear, the tariff negotiation results are known, and the Fed cuts interest rates. Currently, there may not be much room for policy imagination. The bond market is still constrained by funds. Last week, the money market showed signs of bottoming out and rising, and this week it will face the pressure of the large tax - payment month in July. Despite the central bank's active injection of funds, there is still resistance for interest rates to continue to decline, and the lack of further decline in short - term interest rates limits the downward space for long - term interest rates [11][12] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Conditions**: With a loosening money market and a quiet news environment, treasury bond futures fluctuated within a narrow range and most closed higher. The yields of major on - the - run interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market changed slightly. By 16:30 pm, the yield of the 10 - year on - the - run treasury bond 250011 was reported at 1.660%, up 0.1bp [8][9] - **Money Market**: With the central bank's support, the impact of the tax - payment period weakened and the money market loosened. There were 90 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, and the central bank conducted 450.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 360.5 billion yuan. The inter - bank money market sentiment index declined, indicating a缓和 in the tight money situation. Short - term interest rates also declined slightly. The weighted overnight interest rate of inter - bank deposits fell 0.5bp to 1.46%, the 7 - day rate fell 0.7bp to around 1.52%, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate fell 10bp to 1.53% [10] 2. Industry News - The Central Urban Work Conference was held in Beijing after a 10 - year interval. President Xi Jinping attended and delivered an important speech, guiding urban work in the new era. Urbanization should follow economic and social development laws and avoid being rushed. Urban ecological construction requires a long - term perspective [13] - Premier Li Qiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council to study measures for strengthening the domestic economic cycle, heard reports on standardizing the competition order of the new energy vehicle industry and the preliminary rectification of problems found in the audit of the 2024 central budget implementation, and reviewed and approved a draft decision on amending the Regulations on the Administration of the Entry and Exit of Foreigners [13] - Wang Huning, Chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, stated that comprehensively expanding domestic demand is necessary for long - term and sustainable economic development and to meet people's growing needs. More in - depth research results should be produced and applied [13] - Wang Wentao, Minister of Commerce, wrote in Qiushi magazine that high - level opening - up should be used to expand new space for Chinese - style modernization, including promoting higher - quality, higher - standard, more inclusive, and more secure opening - up [14] - The European Commission announced a new budget proposal for 2028 - 2034, totaling 2 trillion euros, a significant increase from the current 1.21 trillion euros. Most of the funds will come from EU member states, and the Commission proposed several ways to raise more funds, such as taxing companies with an annual net turnover of over 100 million euros in the EU, which has been questioned by some member states [14] - US President Trump said he has no current plan to take action against Fed Chairman Powell and is unlikely to fire him unless fraud is proven. He also mentioned that White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin are candidates for Fed positions [14] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The report provides trading data for treasury bond futures on July 17, including opening, closing, and settlement prices, price changes, trading volumes, open interests, and changes in open interests for different contracts such as TL2509, T2509, TF2509, and TS2509 [6] - **Money Market**: The report presents data on the SHIBOR term structure change, SHIBOR trend, bank - to - bank pledged repurchase weighted interest rate change, and inter - bank deposit pledged repurchase interest rate change [28][32] - **Derivatives Market**: It shows the Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) [34]

Report Information - Industry: Eggs [1] - Date: July 18, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] Key Points Report's Core View - The spot price of eggs is expected to rise quickly in the first wave, and then be adjusted according to market conditions. Although the fundamental direction is bearish, short - chasing is not recommended. Traders can consider long positions in the 09 contract for band trading and use put options to hedge risks. There is no sign of a significant trend - based rebound for now [8] Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The national egg price rose today. The average price in the main production areas was 2.85 yuan/jin, up 0.11 yuan/jin from yesterday; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.09 yuan/jin, up 0.06 yuan/jin from yesterday. The 09 contract fell 0.28%. The 08 contract of eggs closed at 3462, up 5 or 0.14%; the 09 contract closed at 3595, down 10 or - 0.28%; the 10 contract closed at 3371, down 48 or - 1.40% [7] - **Operation Suggestions**: Pay attention to whether the spot price has a continuous upward trend next week. Long positions can be established in the 09 contract for band trading. Risk - averse traders can buy put options to hedge the risk of the spot price not rising. Adjust positions in real - time based on the spot price increase and basis [8] Industry News - **In - production Laying Hens Inventory**: As of the end of June, the monthly inventory of in - production laying hens in the country was about 1.34 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 6.8% [9] - **Chick Hatchlings**: The monthly hatchling volume of laying hens in sample enterprises in June was about 40.75 million, slightly less than that in May and slightly higher than the same period in 2024 [9] - **Chicken Culling**: The culling volume gradually recovered after May, reached a phased peak in June, and then declined slightly due to the expectation of the summer peak season. As of July 10, the average culling age was 504 days, 2 days earlier than last week and 8 days earlier than last month [10]

Report Overview - Report Title: Pulp Daily Report - Date: July 18, 2025 - Industry: Pulp 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report 2. Core View - The absolute price of pulp is at a relatively low level. The downside space due to weak fundamentals is limited, and a new round of price increase depends on the improvement of terminal demand and the restoration of industry profits. In the short term, pulp prices will maintain a wide - range shock at a low level [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The pre - settlement price of the pulp futures 09 contract was 5234 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5264 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 0.46%. The intended transaction price range of coniferous pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 5070 - 6700 yuan/ton, and the low - end price remained stable compared with the previous trading day's closing price. The quoted price of Shandong Yinxing was 5920 - 5950 yuan/ton [7] - **Supply - side Information**: Chile's Arauco announced the July quotation. Yinxing's transactions were completed with no new offers, and the net price of Uruguay's broad - leaf pulp New Star was 500 US dollars/ton. According to PPPC data, the shipment volume of coniferous pulp from the world's 20 major pulp - producing countries in May decreased by 8.2% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year decrease from January to April was 0.6%. According to Europulp data, the total inventory of wood pulp in European ports in June increased by 2.4% month - on - month and 6.6% year - on - year; the consumption of wood pulp in Europe decreased by 9.9% month - on - month and 10.6% year - on - year. In June, China's total pulp imports were 3 million and 30 thousand tons, an increase of 0.5% month - on - month and 16.3% year - on - year. As of July 10, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports increased by 0.45% month - on - month, and only the inventory at Gaolan Port decreased compared with the previous week, with a stable overall shipment speed [8] - **Demand - side Information**: Downstream terminal orders were insufficient, and the overall price of base paper was stable with individual declines [8] 3.2 Industry News - On July 11, the second - phase chemical mechanical pulp project's No. 2 line of Liansheng Pulp and Paper Co., Ltd. was successfully put into operation. It took only 4 hours and 8 minutes to connect the entire system from feeding. After 20 hours of system optimization after startup, the quality of the main pulp reached the pulp - using requirements of the paper machine production line. The chemical mechanical pulp of the No. 2 line has been used in the PM1 white cardboard production line of Zhangpu Base. The successful commissioning of the No. 2 line marks a major progress in the annual production of 3.9 million tons of forest - pulp - paper integration in Zhangpu Base and further strengthens Liansheng's raw material self - supply flexibility [9] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including import bleached softwood pulp spot prices in Shandong, pulp futures prices, pulp spot - futures price spreads, needle - broadleaf price spreads, inter - delivery spreads, warehouse receipt totals, domestic main port pulp inventories, European main port wood pulp inventories, prices and spreads of white cardboard and whiteboard paper, prices and spreads of coated paper and offset paper, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate [15][17][19][26][28][30]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: July 18, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Nickel Market Performance: On the 17th, Shanghai nickel was under pressure at the 120,000 integer mark and operated weakly. The main contract 2508 closed down 0.6% at 119,880. The total index position increased by 4,627 to 155,945 lots. [9] - Spot Market: In the off - season, the spot trading of refined nickel was average. Enterprises mainly purchased on demand, and the spot supply was sufficient. The average premium of Jinchuan nickel was 2,050 yuan/ton, and the premium and discount range of mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 100 - 300 yuan/ton. [9] - Market Outlook: The support at the mine end in the front - end of the industrial chain has weakened. The overall bargaining range of nickel iron has moved down, and some nickel iron plants have cut production. The sulfuric acid nickel price may rise from a low level. Currently, all links in the nickel industrial chain are weak, and the macro - sentiment temporarily dominates the market. Wait for a lower price to go long. [9] Group 3: Industry News - Indonesia Nickel Industry: In 2025, Indonesia's actual nickel ore production was only 120 million tons, while the approved RKAB quota in the first half of the year was 364.1 million tons. The industry is facing cost pressure due to policies and taxes. The APNI is working on ESG norms to enhance its international reputation. [10][11] - Bulgaria Battery Storage System: Bulgaria officially launched the largest operating battery energy storage system in the EU, with a capacity of 124 MW/496.2 MWh. This is a step towards its 10,000 MWh battery storage capacity target. [11] - Nickel - based Solar Cell: A research team in Turkey developed a TOPCon solar cell with nickel contact and almost no silver, which can significantly reduce production costs while maintaining high efficiency. [11] - UK Battery Storage Project: Apatura obtained planning permission for a 100 MW battery energy storage system project in Scotland, which will help the region achieve its net - zero and renewable energy goals. [11]

Report Information - Report Title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: July 18, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Core View - The Shanghai copper market continued its weak and volatile trend. The macro - environment showed an external weakness and internal strength situation. There was no obvious change in the fundamentals. The copper price was in a volatile range as both the macro and fundamental factors provided no clear directional guidance [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The Shanghai copper market continued to show a weak and volatile trend. The U.S. dollar index fluctuated sharply due to Trump's remarks about the Fed chair. Domestically, the premier's meeting on strengthening the domestic market circulation policy made related industrial products rise. The inventory in China decreased by 0.43 million tons this week, the 08 - 09 spread of the Shanghai copper market turned to contango, and the lme0 - 3 contango expanded to 64. The support from the spot market in both Shanghai and London continued to weaken [11]. 2. Industry News - Rio Tinto's copper production in Q2 2025 was 22.9 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of 15% and a quarter - on - quarter increase of 9%. Its annual production guidance for 2025 was 78 - 85 million tons, and the output was expected to reach the upper limit of the guidance [12]. - The brass rod market was under pressure. Small enterprises mainly produced continuous casting rods for the real - estate sector, facing insufficient demand and production cuts. Large enterprises had more orders for extrusion rods, but small enterprises had difficulty entering this field due to high production thresholds [12].

Report Information - Report Type: Coke and Coking Coal Daily Review [1] - Date: July 18, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] 1. Market Review and Future Outlook 1.1 Spot Market Dynamics and Technical Analysis - On July 17, the main coke and coking coal futures contracts 2509 rebounded significantly after two days of decline. The J2509 contract closed at 1,519 yuan/ton, up 1.00%, and the JM2509 contract closed at 918.5 yuan/ton, up 1.55% [5]. - The daily KDJ indicators of the coke 2509 contract showed a divergent trend, with the J and K values turning up, but the D value continuing to decline slightly. The daily KDJ indicator of the coking coal 2509 contract changed from a dead cross to a golden cross. The daily MACD red bars of both contracts continued to narrow, but the decline rate slowed down significantly [8]. 1.2 Future Outlook - Coke: Last week, the coke output of independent coking plants dropped to the lowest since early April, and the coke output of steel mills dropped to the lowest since mid - March. Port coke inventories rebounded from the lowest since early March, steel mill coke inventories hovered at a slightly higher level after hitting the lowest since mid - December last year, and coking plant inventories dropped to the lowest since mid - January. The profit per ton of coke has been in the red for 8 consecutive weeks, and the loss widened for 3 consecutive weeks last week. On July 17, the first round of coke spot price increase was implemented [9]. - Coking Coal: From January to May, the year - on - year decline in imports widened significantly by 4.0 percentage points to - 7.3%. In the past 5 weeks, the raw coal and clean coal inventories of coal washing plants have dropped significantly, with declines of 11.1% and 23.8% respectively. The inventories of independent coking plants have increased significantly for 3 consecutive weeks to the level of mid - May, and port inventories have increased for 2 consecutive weeks to the level of late April. However, steel mill inventories declined slightly last week. With stable steel mill purchases, coking plants actively replenished stocks, and coking coal spot prices rebounded [9]. - Overall: Since early July, coke and coking coal futures have rebounded significantly driven by the anti - involution market. It is expected that the prices of coal and coke may continue to rise in the first half of July. One can try to buy for hedging or investment on dips but should take profits in time before the end of July to avoid the negative impact of the obvious correction in August - September on the positions [9]. 2. Industry News - The State Council Executive Meeting, chaired by Premier Li Qiang, focused on strengthening key policies for the domestic large - cycle. The meeting emphasized finding key points, implementing consumption - boosting actions, and releasing domestic demand potential [10]. - An all - around domestic demand expansion research and consultation symposium was held in Beijing on July 16. Wang Huning stressed the importance of expanding domestic demand for long - term economic health and meeting people's needs [10]. - In the first half of 2025, the total social energy consumption increased by 3.9% year - on - year, 0.3 percentage points faster than in Q1. The energy consumption structure continued to optimize, with the proportion of non - fossil energy rising by 1.7 percentage points [11]. - From June 30 to July 6, the average coal price in Shanxi Province was 790.58 yuan/ton, up 0.3% month - on - month. The price of thermal coal fluctuated upward, coking coal prices stabilized, and anthracite prices mainly declined. It is expected that coal prices may be weak in the short term [11]. - In early July, the key steel enterprises produced 20.97 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.097 million tons, down 1.5% from the previous period. The daily output of pig iron and steel products also declined [11]. - In H1 2025, the top 10 coal enterprises produced 1.18 billion tons of raw coal, an increase of 40.26 million tons year - on - year, accounting for 49.2% of the output of enterprises above designated size [11]. - New Steel Co., Ltd. expects to turn a profit in H1 2025, with a net profit of 89 million - 112 million yuan [11]. - Liugang Co., Ltd. expects a net profit of about 340 million - 400 million yuan in H1 2025, a significant increase year - on - year [11]. - Maanshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. expects to reduce losses in H1 2025, with a net loss of about 75 million yuan [12]. - Bayi Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. expects to record a loss in H1 2025 due to weak supply - demand and low steel prices [12]. - Jiugang Hongxing Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. expects to reduce losses in H1 2025 [12]. - Chongqing Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. expects to reduce losses in H1 2025 [12]. - On July 14, the daily power generation of China Energy Investment Group reached 4.07 billion kWh, 8 days earlier than last year's peak - summer period. The photovoltaic power generation reached a record high of 302 million kWh [12]. - Xinji Energy aims to build a comprehensive energy supply system and enhance its long - term investment value [12]. - Shaanxi Coal Industry Group achieved stable production and operation in H1 2025, with revenue of 227.5 billion yuan, profit of 18.04 billion yuan, and investment of 16.03 billion yuan, up 52.3% year - on - year [13]. - Ruimaotong expects a significant decline in net profit in H1 2025 due to a loose coal market [13]. - Gansu Energy Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. expects to turn from profit to loss in H1 2025 due to weak coal demand and falling prices [13]. - On July 16, the national maximum power load exceeded 1.5 billion kilowatts for the first time, indicating strong power demand driven by high temperatures and economic growth [13]. - From January to May, the steel industry in Hebei Province ran smoothly, with a 14% increase in the added value of the advanced steel industry. The industry's profit accounted for 30.39% of the national total with 21.51% of the output [14]. - In H1 2025, the newly approved coal - fired power projects increased by 152% year - on - year. It is likely that the annual approval will exceed 60GW. The profitability of thermal power is recovering, and the valuation of power equipment manufacturers is expected to rebound [14]. - India achieved its target of 205 million tons/year of crude steel production capacity in the 2024 - 2025 fiscal year and is moving towards the 300 million tons/year target by 2030 - 2031. However, the industry faces challenges such as high import dependence on coking coal and high logistics costs [14]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including the spot price index of metallurgical coke, the spot price of coking coal, production and inventory data of coking plants and steel mills, and the basis between spot and futures prices [16][18][22]

碳酸锂期货日报 行业 日期 2025 年 7 月 18 日 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 图1：碳酸锂现货价及价差 图2：碳酸锂期货持仓量成交量 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 碳酸锂期货上涨，受藏格矿业旗下格尔木藏格钾肥有限公司因违规开发被责令停 产消息带动，碳酸锂期货午后大涨，主力最高涨至 69980，藏格锂业 2025 年度计 划实现碳酸锂产量 11000 吨，月产量不足 1000 吨，该产量对国内碳酸锂市场供应 整体影响有限，在国内反内卷浪潮下，该消息的信号意义大于实际意义，不过现 货市场继续受到 ...