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建信期货生猪日报-20250710
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-10 02:17
Report Information - Report Title: Pig Daily Report - Report Date: July 10, 2025 - Industry: Pig Report Core View - The demand is in the off - season. The previous continuous pressure on pigs and reduced volume of slaughter by enterprises continue to support the rebound of futures and spot prices. Currently, the group's slaughter volume is gradually recovering, and the price is slightly回调. In the medium and long term, the supply is expected to increase. In the middle and late July, large - scale breeding enterprises may increase the volume of slaughter to meet monthly targets, and the pig price may be under pressure due to the off - season demand [8] Market Review and Operation Suggestions Futures Market - On the 9th, the main 2509 contract of live pigs opened lower, then bottomed out, rebounded, and fluctuated higher, closing with a positive line. The highest was 14,270 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,175 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,265 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.04% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 474 lots to 162,145 lots [7] Spot Market - On the 9th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 14.89 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day [7] Market Analysis - **Demand Side**: The price difference between fat and standard pigs remains low, the utilization rate of pigsties is relatively high, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening replenishment is low, and only a small amount enters the market. With the rising temperature, terminal demand weakens, slaughter enterprise orders are average, and the slaughter rate and volume of slaughter enterprises remain low. On July 9th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughter enterprises was 132,000 heads, an increase of 14,000 heads from the previous day and a decrease of 48,000 heads from a week ago [8] - **Supply Side**: According to Yongyi data, the planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises in July is 23.88 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 1.19% compared with June. The slaughter volume may be slightly adjusted down. The group's slaughter volume is gradually recovering, and the slaughter weight is slightly decreasing, but there are still fattened pigs for secondary fattening to be slaughtered in the future [8] Industry News - As of the week ending July 3, the profit per head for self - breeding and self - fattening was 171.09 yuan, an increase of 54.48 yuan per head from the previous week. The profit per head for purchasing piglets for fattening was 14.15 yuan, an increase of 16.71 yuan per head from the previous week [9][11] Data Overview - In the week ending July 3, the average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets was 530 yuan per head, unchanged from the previous week [20] - In the week ending July 3, the slaughter volume of sample slaughterhouses was 1.5608 million heads, a decrease of 125,900 heads from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 7.46%. The average daily slaughter volume of daily slaughter samples was 139,029 heads, a decrease of 5,040 heads from the previous week, with an average daily decrease of 3.50%. The slaughter volume on Thursday of this week was 134,338 heads, a decrease of 7,789 heads from Thursday of the previous week, a decrease of 5.48% [20] - As of the week ending July 3, the average slaughter weight of pigs nationwide was 128.64 kg, an increase of 0.50 kg from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 0.39%, and an increase of 2.93 kg compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 2.33% [20]
贵金属日评-20250710
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-10 02:17
Report Overview - Report Date: July 10, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Precious Metals Daily Review - Research Team: Macro Financial Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [2] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Trump's new policies have increased geopolitical risks and economic uncertainty, boosting the safe - haven demand for gold. Although the dollar exchange rate and U.S. Treasury yields have risen, which is negative for precious metals in the short - term, the long - term and medium - term upward trend of gold remains intact. It is recommended that investors maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions [4][5]. Summary by Section 1. Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook Intraday Market - Trump signed the "Big Beautiful Act" into law, and the U.S. Treasury accelerated debt issuance, causing the dollar exchange rate and U.S. Treasury yields to rise, which was negative for precious metals. On the 9th Asian session, London gold fell to around $3285 per ounce. However, Trump's threat to impose tariffs on copper, drugs, and semiconductors and sell weapons to Ukraine to resist Russia also boosted the safe - haven demand for precious metals. London gold is expected to oscillate between $3120 - $3500 per ounce and then rise again [4]. Domestic Precious Metals Market Data | Contract | Previous Closing Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change (%) | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Gold Index | 776.87 | 775.87 | 765.83 | 767.30 | - 1.23% | 396,422 | - 2282 | | Shanghai Silver Index | 8,957 | 8,944 | 8,853 | 8,906 | - 0.57% | 881,108 | - 38229 | | Gold T + D | 771.51 | 771.00 | 761.46 | 763.50 | - 1.04% | 236,664 | 11684 | | Silver T + D | 8,923 | 8,907 | 8,815 | 8,856 | - 0.75% | 3,398,076 | 59188 | [5] Medium - term Market - Since late April, London gold has been in a wide - range oscillation between $3100 - $3500 per ounce. Although the cooling of international trade and the strong rebound of global stock markets have weakened the safe - haven and allocation demand for gold, the uncertainty of Trump's new policies, weak global economic growth, and high geopolitical risks continue to support the gold price. The geopolitical risks in South Asia and the Middle East have provided short - term upward momentum for gold. In early June, speculative funds flowed into the silver and platinum markets, and London silver soared from $33 to $36.9 per ounce in six working days. It is expected that the long - term bull market of gold will be supported by the safe - haven and reserve diversification demand brought by the restructuring of the international trade and currency system, and the medium - term bull market will be supported by economic weakness and central bank interest - rate cut expectations. However, the high price and price - to - earnings ratio of gold also mean increased volatility, and attention should be paid to the impact of rising U.S. inflation pressure on the Fed's interest - rate cut timing in the third quarter [5]. 2. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets [7][9][11]. 3. Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - Trump announced a 50% tariff on imported copper and plans to impose tariffs on semiconductors and drugs (up to 200% for drugs), with copper tariffs possibly implemented by the end of July or August 1 [17]. - Trump said the U.S. will impose a 10% tariff on imports from BRICS countries, which has drawn complaints from Brazilian President Lula. No specific implementation date was given [17]. - Trump approved the delivery of defensive weapons to Ukraine and is considering additional sanctions against Moscow [17]. - The U.S. Treasury will increase the debt ceiling by $5 trillion and plans to increase the issuance of Treasury bills, focusing on short - term bonds. The U.S. Treasury Secretary said that the U.S. has received about $100 billion in tariff revenue so far this year, which may increase to $300 billion by the end of 2025 [18].
建信期货鸡蛋日报-20250710
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-10 02:12
行业 鸡蛋 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号:F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号:F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员:余兰兰 研究员:林贞磊 研究员:王海峰 研究员:洪辰亮 期货从业资格号:F3076808 研究员:刘悠然 日期 2025 年 7 月 10 日 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1:行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...
建信期货铁矿石日评-20250709
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-09 01:50
Report Information - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: July 9, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The iron ore market is currently supported by strong demand from steel mills due to their low willingness to cut production for loss - control and the support from downstream demand in the context of export rush. However, the expiration of the US 90 - day suspension period and the uncertain export policy, along with the weak domestic economic recovery and the decline in real estate investment, suggest that the iron ore price will be weak in the medium - term [10][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On July 8, the main 2509 contract of iron ore futures showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, opening low and then rising. It closed at 733.0 yuan/ton, up 0.14% [7] - The prices of major iron ore outer - market quotes and the prices of major - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port remained flat compared with the previous trading day [9] - The KDJ indicator of the daily line of the iron ore 2509 contract was rising, with the K and J values turning up and the D value continuing to rise. The red column of the MACD indicator of the daily line of the iron ore 2509 contract had narrowed for two consecutive trading days [9] 3.2 Futures Market Data | Contract Code | Previous Closing Price | Opening Price | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Closing Price | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | Capital Inflow/Outflow | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | RB2510 | 3061 | 3059 | 3074 | 3050 | 3063 | - 0.13% | 954,572 | 2,168,547 | - 28,783 | - 0.59 | | HC2510 | 3191 | 3186 | 3198 | 3176 | 3191 | - 0.06% | 341,788 | 1,593,691 | 8,136 | 0.18 | | SS2508 | 12640 | 12635 | 12790 | 12625 | 12700 | 0.32% | 103,281 | 90,238 | - 204 | 0.02 | | I2509 | 731 | 731 | 736 | 727.5 | 733 | 0.14% | 233,496 | 655,157 | 7,312 | 1.00 | [5] 3.3 Futures Market Position Data | Contract | Top 20 Long Positions | Top 20 Short Positions | Top 20 Long Position Change | Top 20 Short Position Change | Long - Short Comparison | Deviation Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | RB2510 | 1,341,471 | 1,295,405 | - 20,077 | - 27,519 | 7,442 | 0.56% | | HC2510 | 1,129,177 | 1,119,049 | 3,849 | 9,683 | - 5,834 | - 0.52% | | SS2508 | 65,699 | 67,169 | - 1,189 | 128 | - 1,317 | - 1.98% | | J2509 | 29,514 | 33,265 | 169 | - 59 | 228 | 0.73% | | JM2509 | 293,448 | 335,872 | 4,208 | - 6,162 | 10,370 | 3.30% | | I2509 | 396,848 | 431,467 | 2,066 | 7,989 | - 5,923 | - 1.43% | [8] 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - **Demand Side**: The molten iron output has turned down but remains above 240,000 tons, a relatively high level. The steel production reduction process of steel enterprises is rather tortuous, and the support on the iron ore demand side is still strong. Nearly 60% of the sample enterprises are still profitable, so the steel mills' willingness to control losses and cut production is not high [10] - **Supply Side**: The shipping volume of 19 ports in Australia and Brazil last week dropped significantly, a regular decline after the shipping volume rush. The arrival volume increased. Based on the data of the past four weeks, it is expected that the overall supply will remain loose until mid - July and then gradually tighten [11] 3.5 Industry News - On July 8, the National Development and Reform Commission and other three departments issued a notice on the construction of zero - carbon industrial parks, aiming to promote energy - use and carbon - emission management, energy - efficiency and carbon - efficiency diagnosis, and energy - saving and carbon - reduction transformation in parks [12] - On July 7, Beisente said in an interview that he would meet with his Chinese counterparts in the next few weeks and hoped to expand cooperation beyond trade [12] - Trump announced a 25% tariff on Japanese and South Korean goods effective August 1, and tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on goods from Malaysia, Kazakhstan, South Africa, Laos, etc., also effective August 1 [12] 3.6 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices of major iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade and low - grade ores and PB powder, the basis between iron ore spot at Qingdao Port and the September contract, the shipping volume of Brazilian and Australian iron ore, the arrival volume at 45 ports, domestic mine capacity utilization rate, major port iron ore trading volume, steel mill iron ore inventory available days, imported sintered powder ore inventory, port iron ore inventory and dispatch volume, sample steel mill tax - free molten iron cost, blast furnace and electric furnace start - up rates and capacity utilization rates, national daily average molten iron output, apparent consumption of five major steel products, weekly output of five major steel products, and steel mill inventory of five major steel products [17][18][21][22][27][29][32][37][38]
锌期货日报-20250709
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-09 01:50
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: July 9, 2025 [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The U.S. June non - farm payrolls significantly exceeded expectations, cooling the market's bets on a September interest rate cut. The rebound of the U.S. dollar index suppressed the non - ferrous metals sector. Trump plans to send letters to multiple countries to clarify new tariff rates, and with the July 9 tariff deadline approaching, risk - aversion sentiment has risen again. Both macro and fundamental factors led to the decline of Shanghai zinc futures. However, there are signs of a halt in the hourly line, and the 22,000 yuan integer mark of Shanghai zinc provides strong support [7] Group 4: Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: For SHFE zinc 2507, it opened at 22,135 yuan/ton, closed at 22,070 yuan/ton, with a high of 22,140 yuan/ton, a low of 21,925 yuan/ton, a decline of 115 yuan, a decline rate of 0.52%, and the position decreased by 890 to 3,150. For SHFE zinc 2508, it opened at 22,070 yuan/ton, closed at 22,050 yuan/ton, with a high of 22,115 yuan/ton, a low of 21,865 yuan/ton, a decline of 135 yuan, a decline rate of 0.61%, and the position decreased by 7,658 to 118,874. For SHFE zinc 2509, it opened at 22,025 yuan/ton, closed at 21,960 yuan/ton, with a high of 22,050 yuan/ton, a low of 21,770 yuan/ton, a decline of 155 yuan, a decline rate of 0.70%, and the position decreased by 1,465 to 87,420 [7] - **Market Performance**: On July 9, most non - ferrous metals closed lower. SHFE zinc opened lower in the morning, rebounded slightly in the afternoon, and the decline narrowed. The main contract closed at 22,050 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan or 0.61%, with reduced volume and positions. LME zinc inventories accelerated to below 110,000 tons, the 0 - 3 spread was C22.05, and the import profit and loss was - 889.14 yuan/ton, with the import window closed. The processing fee continued to rise. Although some smelters had maintenance in July, the overall industry's operating rate was high due to good smelter profits, and the zinc ingot supply still increased. The consumption side entered the off - season and gradually weakened, and the pressure of inventory accumulation was gradually emerging, with social inventories increasing by 0.67 million tons to 8.91 million tons on Monday [7] Group 5: Industry News - **Shanghai Market**: On July 8, 2025, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated between 22,025 - 22,255 yuan/ton, and that of Shuangyan was between 22,045 - 22,275 yuan/ton. The mainstream transaction price of 1 zinc was between 21,955 - 22,185 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market quoted a premium of 50 - 70 yuan/ton over the SMM average price, and there were few quotes against the market. In the second trading session, ordinary domestic brands quoted a premium of 170 - 180 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract, Honglu - v quoted a premium of 160 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract, Huize quoted a premium of 140 yuan/ton over the 2507 contract, and the high - end brand Shuangyan quoted a premium of 180 - 220 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract [8] - **Ningbo Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc in the Ningbo market was around 21,965 - 22,165 yuan/ton. The regular brands in Ningbo quoted a premium of 90 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract and were at par with the Shanghai spot price. In the first period, Yongchang quoted a premium of 100 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract, Qilin quoted a delivered premium of 140 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract, and Honglu - v zinc ingots quoted a premium of 100 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract. In the second period, traders' quotes remained the same as the previous period [8] - **Tianjin Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc ingots in the Tianjin market was between 21,890 - 22,110 yuan/ton, and that of Zijin was between 21,920 - 22,130 yuan/ton. The transaction price of 1 zinc ingots was around 21,740 - 21,960 yuan/ton, and Huludao was quoted at 25,400 yuan/ton. 0 ordinary zinc quoted a premium of 20 - 40 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract, Zijin quoted a premium of 60 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract, and the Tianjin market quoted a discount of about 60 yuan/ton compared to the Shanghai market [8][9] - **Guangdong Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc in Guangdong was between 21,865 - 22,075 yuan/ton. The mainstream brands quoted a premium of 20 yuan/ton over the 2508 contract and a discount of 70 yuan/ton compared to the Shanghai spot price, and the Shanghai - Guangdong price difference remained stable. In the first period, holders quoted a premium of 0 - 40 yuan/ton for Qilin, Mengzi, Anning, and Lanxing. In the second period, Qilin, Anning, and Lanxing quoted a premium of 0 - 40 yuan/ton over the net price [9] Group 6: Data Overview - Not elaborated in detail in the given content, only mentioned data sources such as Wind and SMM, and related charts like the two - market zinc price trend, SHFE monthly spread, SMM seven - region zinc ingot weekly inventory, and LME zinc inventory [10][16]
建信期货镍日报-20250709
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-09 01:48
Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Nickel Daily Report [1] - Date: July 9, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - The macro atmosphere has turned weak, and uncertainty has increased, leading to a decline in risk appetite. On the 8th, Shanghai nickel continued to be weak in the non - ferrous sector under the pressure of fundamental surplus, temporarily stabilizing above 120,000. The nickel industry chain shows weak performance in all links. Be cautious about the rebound space, reduce long positions on rallies, and adopt a rolling operation strategy [8] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Macro and Market Conditions**: The macro atmosphere is weak, and risk appetite has declined. Shanghai nickel is weak in the non - ferrous sector under fundamental surplus pressure [8] - **Supply - Side Conditions**: Since the end of June, the support from the ore end has weakened, and the price of Indonesian domestic red clay nickel ore has loosened. The high - nickel iron price continued to fall, with the average price on the 8th dropping by 2.5 to 905 yuan/nickel point. Nickel iron plants' losses have intensified, and some have cut production. The steel mills are sluggish, with reduced production schedules and high inventories, and can only maintain the rigid demand for raw materials [8] - **Sulfuric Acid Nickel Situation**: Sulfuric acid nickel remained flat at 27,410. The recent rise in LME nickel prices has increased the immediate production cost of nickel salt plants. Some nickel salt plants have stopped production for maintenance due to losses, and some are holding up prices. The short - term price of sulfuric acid nickel is expected to remain stable [8] - **Operation Suggestions**: Be cautious about the rebound space of nickel, reduce long positions on rallies, and adopt a rolling operation strategy [8] Group 5: Industry News - Bulgaria officially launched the largest - scale operating battery energy storage system in the EU, with a capacity of 124 megawatts/496.2 megawatt - hours, located in the Balkan Industrial Park in the north - central city of Lovech [9] - A research team from Turkey's Odtu - Gunam Institute and Necmettin Erbakan University developed a TOPCon solar cell using nickel (Ni) contacts and almost no silver (Ag), with silver usage below 0.5 mg/watt, far lower than traditional silver - contact cells [11] - Renewable energy storage company Apatura obtained planning permission for a 100 - megawatt battery energy storage system (BESS) project near Kilwinning, North Ayrshire, Scotland [11]
建信期货铝日报-20250709
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-09 01:47
行业 铝日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 9 日 研究员:余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3025190 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangpin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3015713 研究员:彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 图1:机构净持仓 图2:机构多空比 有色金属研究团队 数据来源:Wind,建信期货研究发展部 数据来源:Wind,建信期货研究发展部 铝观点: 沪铝日内窄幅运行,尾盘小幅收涨 0.12%报 20525,指数总持仓增加 2372 至 671542 手,07-08 升水收窄 30 至 175。淡季氛围下库存如期累积,但月差结构保 持坚挺,现货升水持续承压,日内华东贴水-50,中原贴水-170,华南贴水-70。 铸造铝合金跟随沪铝震荡偏强,2511 收盘报 19850 涨幅 0.85%,AD-AL 负 ...
建信期货原油日报-20250709
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-09 01:25
行业 原油日报 一、行情回顾与操作建议 日期 2025 年 7 月 9 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 研究员:李金(甲醇) 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油沥青) 研究员:任俊弛(PTA、MEG) 研究员:彭浩洲( ...
建信期货油脂日报-20250709
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-09 01:21
Report Overview - Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Date: July 9, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The center of the oil and fat market has been rising, driven by the favorable US biofuel policy. The continuous increase in the position of the palm oil contract P09 has led to a significant upward movement. However, the report believes that the upward space of palm oil is limited, and it is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities near the resistance level [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operational Suggestions - **Quotation Information**: Dongguan rapeseed oil trader quotes are San Cai 09 + 60 and Yi Cai 09 + 240. In the East China market, the basis price of soybean oil is spot basis 09 + 150 for first - grade soybean oil, Y2509 + 220 from July to September, and Y2601 + 300 from October to January. In the South China market, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil is P09 + 150 yuan/ton, with real - order negotiation [7]. - **Market Analysis**: The palm oil on the Dalian Commodity Exchange increased in position and rose. Only the P09 contract increased its position by more than 70,000 lots and moved strongly upward. The US biofuel policy has driven the upward movement of the oil and fat market. The Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) will release monthly data on Thursday. A survey shows that the palm oil inventory in Malaysia at the end of June is expected to remain flat or decline, ending the previous four - month growth trend due to unexpected production reduction and strong exports. The US has imposed a 32% tariff on Indonesia and a 25% tariff on Malaysia, which may reduce Indonesia's exports and theoretically benefit the Malaysian market [7]. 3.2 Industry News - **Inventory, Production, and Export Forecasts**: Reuters' survey shows that the palm oil inventory in Malaysia at the end of June may drop to 1.99 million tons, with a production of 1.7 million tons (a 4.04% month - on - month decrease) and exports of 1.45 million tons. Bloomberg's forecast data shows a production of 1.74 million tons, exports of 1.44 million tons, and an inventory of 2 million tons in June [8]. - **Production Details**: The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) states that the estimated palm oil production in Malaysia in June 2025 is 1.69 million tons, a 4.69% month - on - month decrease. The production in the Malaysian Peninsula increased by 0.68% month - on - month, while that in Sabah decreased by 11.95% and in Sarawak decreased by 8.98%. The production in East Malaysia decreased by 11.24% month - on - month [8]. - **Export Data**: The shipping survey agency SGS reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports in June were 1,195,265 tons, an 11.7% increase from May. Exports to China were 168,000 tons, an increase of 36,000 tons from the previous month. ITS reported exports of 1.382 million tons (a 4.7% increase), and AmSpec reported 1.286 million tons (a 4.5% increase) [8]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple charts including the spot prices of East China's third - grade rapeseed oil and fourth - grade soybean oil, the spot price of South China's 24 - degree palm oil, the basis changes of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil, the spreads of palm oil contracts (P1 - 5, P5 - 9, P9 - 1), and the exchange rates of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan and the Malaysian ringgit. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [10][15][17]
建信期货国债日报-20250709
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-09 01:20
#summary# 行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 9 日 研究员:何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3008762 研究员:黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3051589 研究员:聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 | | 表1:国债期货7月8日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 (%) | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2509 | 121.190 | 121.070 | 120.920 | 120.860 | -0.270 | -0.22 | ...