行业 锌期货日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 24 日 每日报告 一、 行情回顾 | 表1：期货市场行情 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位：元/吨 | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变化 | | 沪锌 | 2508 | 22805 | 22920 | 22970 | 22770 | 95 | 0.42 | 41064 | -1996 | | 沪锌 | 2509 | 22850 | 22975 | 23020 | 22815 | 115 | 0.50 | 137891 | 3831 | | 沪锌 | 2510 | 22860 | 22955 | 23020 | 22820 | 100 | 0.44 | 42184 | 2206 | 数据来源： Wind ，建信期货研究发展部 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3075681 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Sugar Daily Report [1] - Date: July 24, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market Quotes** - SR509 closed at 5834 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan or 0.15%, with a position of 332,040 contracts, a decrease of 2,120 contracts [7] - SR601 closed at 5656 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.02%, with a position of 126,227 contracts, an increase of 2,396 contracts [7] - ICE US Sugar 11 Oct closed at 16.26 cents/lb, down 0.11 cents or 0.67%, with a position of 392,620 contracts, a decrease of 4,151 contracts [7] - ICE US Sugar 11 Mar closed at 16.88 cents/lb, down 0.15 cents or 0.88%, with a position of 215,397 contracts, a decrease of 1,492 contracts [7] - **Market Analysis** - New York raw sugar futures trended weaker on Tuesday. The market rumor that India may allow new - season sugar exports due to a bumper cane crop affected the raw sugar price, but the current low price is not enough to support Indian exports [7] - Zhengzhou sugar futures' main contract closed higher. Recently, the domestic commodity market rose due to the "anti - involution" theme, and Zhengzhou sugar was slightly affected, showing a stronger trend than raw sugar. In the third quarter, the supply of refined sugar will gradually increase, which will suppress the domestic sugar price [8] Group 3: Industry News - Coca - Cola will launch a signature cola product using sucrose in the US market this fall [11] - The European Union's crop monitoring agency MARS lowered its 2025 sugar beet yield forecast to 74.8 tons per hectare from 76.3 tons last month, but it is still 2% higher than the five - year average [11] - In June 2025, China imported 115,500 tons of syrup and premixes, a year - on - year decrease of 103,500 tons. From January to June 2025, the total import was 459,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 492,400 tons. From the 2024/25 sugar season to June, the total import was 1,098,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 269,500 tons [11] - In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 392,300 tons. From January to June 2025, the total import was 1,050,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 251,200 tons or 19.29%. From the 2024/25 sugar season to June, the total import was 2,512,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 649,300 tons or 20.54% [11] - In June 2025, China's dairy product output was 2.546 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.1%. From January to June, the total output was 14.33 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3% [11] - In June 2025, China's beverage output was 18.428 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. From January to June, the total output was 93.089 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.9% [11] Group 4: Data Overview - **Transaction and Position Data of Top 20 Seats in Zhengzhou Sugar Futures' Main Contract** - Dongzheng Futures (for clients) had the highest trading volume of 52,582 lots, an increase of 3,443 lots [22] - CITIC Futures (for clients) had the highest long position of 73,181 contracts, an increase of 1,840 contracts [22] - COFCO Futures (for clients) had the highest short position of 51,109 contracts, an increase of 1,037 contracts [22]

行业 日期 2025 年 7 月 24 日 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 聚烯烃日报 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-86630631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料油） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The uncertainty of Trump's new policies and high international geopolitical risks continue to support the gold price, and the restructuring of the international trade - currency system will support the long - term bull market of gold. The economic growth slowdown and central bank interest - rate cut expectations caused by Trump's reforms will support the medium - term bull market of gold. However, high price - to - earnings ratios mean increased price volatility, and in the third quarter, attention should be paid to the impact of the implementation of the US fiscal expansion bill and rising inflation pressure on the Fed's interest - rate cut timing [6]. - In the short term, London gold is expected to continue to oscillate within the range of $3120 - $3500 per ounce, waiting for the next round of breakthrough and upward trend. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions [4][6]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook - **Intraday Market**: Trump's government pressured the Fed to cut interest rates, causing the US dollar exchange rate and US Treasury yields to decline significantly, which boosted the price of precious metals with strong financial attributes. London gold rebounded close to $3440 per ounce. However, the information about the US reaching trade agreements with the Philippines and Japan in the Asian session on the 23rd weakened the safe - haven demand for gold. Currently, the volatility of gold has increased, but the medium - term upward trend remains good. London gold may oscillate within the range of $3120 - $3500 per ounce and then rise again. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions. This week, attention should be paid to the preliminary PMI values for July in Europe and the US and the ECB's interest - rate meeting [4]. - **Medium - term Market**: Since late April, London gold has been oscillating within the range of $3100 - $3500 per ounce. Although the cooling of international trade and the US fiscal expansion bill have weakened the safe - haven and allocation demand for gold, the uncertainty of Trump's new policies and high geopolitical risks continue to support the price. It is expected that in the short term, London gold will continue to oscillate within the range of $3120 - $3500 per ounce. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset and participate in trading with medium - to - low positions. Traders with a bearish mindset can consider the "long gold, short silver" arbitrage strategy after the upward momentum of silver fades [6]. - **Domestic Precious Metals Market**: The Shanghai Gold Index closed at 794.01, up 1.04%; the Shanghai Silver Index closed at 9500, up 1.05%; the Gold T + D closed at 788.11, up 1.04%; the Silver T + D closed at 9475, up 1.14% [5]. II. Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - The US Treasury Secretary, Bezant, will meet with the Chinese Treasury Secretary in Stockholm next week to discuss whether to extend the deadline for the agreement reached on August 12 to avoid a significant tariff increase. China's embassy in the US said that the implementation details of the trade consensus reached by Trump and Xi Jinping have been finalized [18]. - US President Trump said that a large - scale deal has been reached with Japan, and Japan will pay a 15% reciprocal tariff to the US and invest $550 billion in the US as required. The EU's trade commissioner said that the upcoming China - EU summit is an opportunity to discuss key trade and investment issues [18]. - Trump criticized Fed Chairman Powell, saying that he is a fool for keeping interest rates too high and that Powell will step down in eight months. Trump believes that the policy interest rate should be 3 percentage points lower than the current level. Bezant said that there is no need for Powell to step down immediately and that Powell should adjust the scale of the Fed's non - monetary policy functions as a legacy of his tenure [18].

行业 沥青日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 24 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：李金（甲醇） 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（碳市场工业硅） 研究员 ...

Report Information - Report Date: July 24, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] - Industry: Industrial Silicon Market Performance and Outlook Market Performance - The main contract price of industrial silicon futures opened high and moved higher, then fell sharply after a mid - session rally with significant position reduction. The closing price of Si2509 was 9,525 yuan/ton, up 0.58%. The trading volume was 1,681,660 lots, and the open interest was 334,779 lots, with a net reduction of 46,182 lots [4]. - The spot price of industrial silicon continued to rise. The price of Inner Mongolia 553 was 9,550 yuan/ton, Sichuan 553 was 9,050 yuan/ton; Inner Mongolia 421 was 9,900 yuan/ton, Xinjiang 421 was 9,900 yuan/ton, and Sichuan 421 was 10,500 yuan/ton [4]. Market Outlook - The fundamental factors are not the main driving force currently. The resumption of production in the southwest offsets the production cuts of large factories in Xinjiang, and the monthly output change is not significant compared to the first half of the year. The photovoltaic demand has increased slightly due to the resumption of production of polysilicon enterprises, but the shutdown and rectification of a certain organic silicon enterprise in Shandong has reduced the demand. Overall, the supply - demand remains loose [4]. - Currently, the order of factors influencing the market is policy > funds > fundamentals. After the polysilicon limit - up board was opened, industrial silicon also reduced positions by 46,000 lots and fell on heavy volume. If it fails to break through the 10,000 - yuan mark in the short term, it is likely to reach a phased peak. However, due to the current policy and spot price support, the downside space is also limited. It is expected to fluctuate strongly at high levels on an intraday basis [4]. Market News - On July 23, the futures warehouse receipt volume of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,106 lots, a net increase of 53 lots from the previous trading day [5]. - On July 18, the State Council Information Office held a press conference. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's Chief Engineer Xie Shaofeng stated that the steady - growth work plans for ten key industries such as steel, non - ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials are即将出台. The ministry will promote key industries to adjust the structure, optimize the supply, and eliminate backward production capacity [5]. - In June 2025, China's industrial silicon export volume reached 68,300 tons, a sharp increase of 23% month - on - month and 12% year - on - year, hitting a 18 - month high. Exports to Southeast Asia accounted for 58%, with Thailand (21,000 tons) and Malaysia (18,000 tons) being the main incremental markets, mainly used for local photovoltaic module production [5]. - As of the end of June, the country's cumulative installed power generation capacity was 3.65 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.7%. Among them, the installed solar power generation capacity was 1.1 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 54.2%. From January to June, the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity was 212.21GW, a year - on - year increase of 107.07%, but the domestic installed capacity in June was only 14GW, showing a significant decline [5].

Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: July 24, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated and adjusted. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 15,543 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cotton yarn market price rose, but the downstream was difficult to increase volume. Spinning mills' profits were still in large losses, and the operating rate decreased. The cotton fabric market had few inquiries and mostly small and urgent orders [7] - Macroscopically, trade negotiations were approaching. Internationally, the growth progress was slow but the good - quality rate was improving, with limited external market drive. Domestically, the sown area increased year - on - year, and there was an expectation of a good harvest. Recently, the sale of old cotton increased, and the basis of new cotton decreased slightly. The short - term supply pressured cotton prices. The yarn price was strong, and the cotton yarn inventory did not accumulate. The cotton import in June was low, and the commercial inventory was still tight. The short - term main contract fluctuated and adjusted, and the 9 - 1 spread converged [8] Group 3: Industry News - As of the week ending July 20, the good - quality rate of U.S. cotton was 57%, the boll - setting rate was 33%, and the budding rate was 71% [9] - As of July 18, 2025, the total commercial cotton inventory was 2.4575 million tons, a decrease of 148,800 tons or 5.71% from the previous week [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report presented multiple data charts, including China's cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, various spreads, cotton commercial and industrial inventories, warehouse receipt volume, and exchange rates [17][18][23]

Report Overview - Report Date: July 24, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The external market of US soybeans is oscillating, with the main contract at 1030 cents. Due to favorable weather and a slightly bearish July USDA report, CBOT soybeans declined weakly at the beginning of last week, testing the previous low of 1000 cents. Subsequently, positive news emerged, such as the US reaching a trade agreement with Indonesia, which includes Indonesia's plan to purchase $4.5 billion worth of agricultural products from the US, slightly alleviating concerns about US soybean exports. Overall, US soybeans may continue to oscillate in the bottom range. The growth of new - season US soybeans is good, with a surprisingly high excellent - good rate of 70% in the latest week, a 4% increase from the previous week, and only 7% of the planting area affected by drought, strengthening the expectation of a bumper harvest. If China, the largest importer of US soybeans, still cannot purchase due to high tariffs, CBOT soybeans are expected to lack sustained improvement [6]. - Domestic soybean meal continued to be strong this week. On one hand, the risk preference in the commodity market has recovered, and the prices of most industrial products at the bottom have risen, driving the bullish sentiment in the market. On the other hand, the fundamental situation of soybean meal is solid. Although the current spot supply of soybean meal is abundant, considering that China has not started purchasing new - season US soybeans for the fourth quarter, the current pressure is insignificant. During the week, CBOT soybeans recovered, the FOB price of Brazilian soybeans increased, and the import cost gradually rose. The far - month soybean meal should generally be treated with a low - buying strategy, with the risk being whether there will be positive news from the Sino - US peace talks, such as a mutual reduction of tariffs without an agreement for China to purchase additional US agricultural products [6]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Data**: - For the soybean meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3098, the opening price was 3100, the highest price was 3136, the lowest price was 3098, the closing price was 3116, with a rise of 18 and a rise rate of 0.58%. The trading volume was 413,570, the open interest was 1,236,007, and the open interest change was 22,460 [6]. - For the soybean meal 2509 contract, the previous settlement price was 3076, the opening price was 3080, the highest price was 3121, the lowest price was 3077, the closing price was 3095, with a rise of 19 and a rise rate of 0.62%. The trading volume was 1,166,151, the open interest was 1,838,499, and the open interest change was - 12,733 [6]. - For the soybean meal 2511 contract, the previous settlement price was 3111, the opening price was 3096, the highest price was 3155, the lowest price was 3096, the closing price was 3133, with a rise of 22 and a rise rate of 0.71%. The trading volume was 126,795, the open interest was 623,289, and the open interest change was 1,122 [6]. - **External Market**: The external market of US soybeans is oscillating. Favorable factors include the trade agreement with Indonesia and potential agreements with other small countries, while bearish factors include good weather, a high excellent - good rate of new - season soybeans, and China's non - purchase due to tariffs [6]. - **Domestic Market**: Domestic soybean meal is strong, driven by market sentiment and its own fundamentals. The far - month contract should be treated with a low - buying strategy, with risks related to Sino - US trade negotiations [6]. 3.2 Industry News - **USDA Pressing Weekly Report**: As of the week ending July 18, 2025, the US soybean pressing profit was $2.58 per bushel, a 1.5% decrease from the previous week. In 2024, the average pressing profit was $2.44 per bushel, lower than $3.29 per bushel in 2023. The spot price of 48% protein soybean meal at soybean processing plants in Illinois was $257.28 per short ton, equivalent to $5.98 per bushel. The truck quotation of crude soybean oil in Illinois was 56.15 cents per pound, equivalent to $6.63 per bushel. The average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was $10.28 per bushel, up from $10.23 per bushel last week [7][9]. - **Anec Forecast**: Brazil's soybean exports in July are expected to be 12.11 million tons (previously estimated at 12.19 million tons), soybean meal exports are expected to be 2.4 million tons (previously estimated at 2.25 million tons), and corn exports are expected to be 4.14 million tons (previously estimated at 4.6 million tons) [9]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 09 contract, the 1 - 5 spread, the 5 - 9 spread, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [11][13][14]

宏观金融团队 行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 7 月 24 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | 表1：集运欧线期货7月23日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | EC2508 | 2,276.1 | 2,238.0 | 2,239.7 | 2,212.3 | -36.4 | -1 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the context of the peak season, crude oil consumption may be lower than expected, and oil prices are likely to move sideways in the short term. It is necessary to continue to monitor consumption and Saudi Arabia's supply changes [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - **Market Quotes**: WTI closed at $65.45 per barrel, down 0.76%; Brent closed at $68.67 per barrel, down 0.78%; SC closed at 503.7 yuan per barrel, down 0.57%. API data showed that as of the week ending on the 18th, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 575,000 barrels week - on - week, but gasoline inventories increased significantly, causing oil prices to fall again [6] - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: The three major institutions' July reports showed little adjustment on the demand side. On the supply side, most OPEC countries completed compensatory production cuts, but there were differences in the estimates of Saudi Arabia's oil production. High - frequency data indicated that U.S. refined oil consumption was slightly lower than expected [7] 3.2 行业要闻 - The IEA stated that global LNG supply will see the largest increase since 2019 next year. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that the U.S. has become a net exporter of crude oil to Nigeria for the first time [10] 3.3 数据概览 - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventories, WTI fund positions, U.S. crude oil production growth rate, and EIA crude oil inventories [11][14]