行业 鸡蛋 日期 2025 年 8 月 15 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 期货从业资格号：F3076808 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

Group 1: General Information - Report title: Copper Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: August 14, 2025 [2] - Research analysts: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Market Review and Trading Recommendations - Copper prices continued to rise. The main contract of Shanghai copper closed at 79,360. Overnight US CPI data was lower than expected, leading the market to further bet on a 25BP interest rate cut in September. The US dollar index declined, which was positive for copper prices. The spot price rose 325 to 79,475, and the spot premium remained flat at 200. As the delivery was approaching, domestic supply was still tight, but imported supply supplemented. It was expected that the premium would slightly decline. The spot Shanghai-London ratio dropped to 8.088, the import loss narrowed to 75, and the 0-3C structure widened to 87. The premiums of warehouse receipts and bills of lading remained flat. In the short term, the domestic spot market was stronger than the overseas market. With the opening of the expectations of interest rate cuts in China and the US, the market's bullish sentiment rebounded. It was recommended to buy copper on dips [10] Group 3: Industry News - Codelco's copper production in June increased by 17% year-on-year to 120,200 tons [11] - According to Industrial Online data, in June 2025, China's household air conditioner exports ended a two-year growth trend. The export volume in that month decreased by 25.6% year-on-year to 6.496 million units [11] - The unadjusted annual CPI rate in the US in July remained the same as the previous month, recording 2.7%; the unadjusted annual core CPI rate in July rose to a five-month high, recording 3.1%. After the data was released, traders increased their bets on a September interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. Trump called on Powell to cut interest rates immediately, and US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that the Federal Reserve should consider cutting interest rates by 50 basis points in September [11] - According to recycled copper rod enterprises, the investment promotion policy may be cancelled on September 1, 2025. Currently, no enterprise has received an official notice, but many enterprises are worried that if the preferential policies for enterprise operations stop, they will need to purchase recycled copper raw materials with a 13% VAT in the future. Therefore, recycled copper rod enterprises may temporarily stop production and wait until September 1 to see if the notice is actually implemented before making production plans [11]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: August 14, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team, including researchers Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, and Feng Zeren [3] Group 2: Market Quotes 8月13日钢材、铁矿期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况 - RB2510: Previous closing price 3258 yuan/ton, opening price 3260 yuan/ton, highest price 3274 yuan/ton, lowest price 3221 yuan/ton, closing price 3222 yuan/ton, decline of 0.92%, trading volume 1,236,428 lots, open interest 1,652,593 lots, open interest change +47,205 lots, capital inflow 0.66 billion yuan [5] - HC2510: Previous closing price 3484 yuan/ton, opening price 3483 yuan/ton, highest price 3498 yuan/ton, lowest price 3448 yuan/ton, closing price 3451 yuan/ton, decline of 0.66%, trading volume 468,704 lots, open interest 1,353,836 lots, open interest change -27,724 lots, capital outflow 0.99 billion yuan [5] - SS2510: Previous closing price 13200 yuan/ton, opening price 13200 yuan/ton, highest price 13240 yuan/ton, lowest price 13115 yuan/ton, closing price 13130 yuan/ton, decline of 0.64%, trading volume 160,324 lots, open interest 144,226 lots, capital outflow 0.02 billion yuan [5] - I2601: Previous closing price 801 yuan/ton, opening price 801 yuan/ton, highest price 803.5 yuan/ton, lowest price 795 yuan/ton, closing price 795 yuan/ton, unchanged, trading volume 197,238 lots, open interest 452,419 lots, open interest change +8,620 lots, capital inflow 0.63 billion yuan [5] 8月13日黑色系期货持仓情况 - RB2510: Top 20 long positions 975,911 lots, top 20 short positions 1,030,165 lots, long position change +24,268 lots, short position change +41,372 lots, long - short difference -17,104 lots, deviation -1.71% [8] - HC2510: Top 20 long positions 966,759 lots, top 20 short positions 977,598 lots, long position change -20,634 lots, short position change -20,918 lots, long - short difference +284 lots, deviation 0.03% [8] - SS2510: Top 20 long positions 94,934 lots, top 20 short positions 106,383 lots, long position change +1,080 lots, short position change +993 lots, long - short difference +87 lots, deviation 0.09% [8] - J2601: Top 20 long positions 22,452 lots, top 20 short positions 28,968 lots, long position change +944 lots, short position change +956 lots, long - short difference -12 lots, deviation -0.05% [8] - JM2601: Top 20 long positions 345,358 lots, top 20 short positions 439,981 lots, long position change -36,050 lots, short position change -4,758 lots, long - short difference -31,292 lots, deviation -7.97% [8] - I2601: Top 20 long positions 291,866 lots, top 20 short positions 281,990 lots, long position change +5,252 lots, short position change +4,434 lots, long - short difference +818 lots, deviation 0.29% [8] Group 3: Market Analysis 行情回顾 - On August 13, the main 2601 contract of iron ore futures oscillated, opened higher and then oscillated, and declined in the afternoon, closing at 795.0 yuan/ton, unchanged [7] 现货市场动态与技术面走势 - Spot market: On August 13, the main iron ore outer - disk quotes decreased by 0 - 0.5 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port remained the same as the previous trading day [9] - Technical analysis: The daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2601 contract showed a divergent trend, with the K and D values continuing to rise and the J value turning back; the daily MACD indicator of the iron ore 2601 contract formed a golden cross [9] 后市展望 - News: On August 9, Tangshan issued a notice requiring independent steel rolling enterprises to stop production at any time according to meteorological conditions from August 16 to 25 and to stop production from August 25 to September 3. It is estimated that the production restriction in Tangshan will affect the daily output of about 90,000 tons of 35 section steel enterprises using semi - finished steel billets. Some coking plants in Shandong have a production restriction plan from August 16 - 25 (30% restriction), August 26 - September 3 (50% restriction), and will resume normal production at 0:00 on September 4, with an estimated cumulative impact on coke output of about 41,000 tons [10][11] - Fundamentals: Supply - The weekly shipment volume of 19 ports in Australia and Brazil decreased slightly last week, and the total shipment volume in the past four weeks decreased by 6.2% compared with the previous four weeks. Considering the shipping time, the subsequent arrival volume may oscillate at a moderately low level. Demand - The downstream steel demand still shows a seasonal decline, inventory is gradually accumulating, and the molten iron output has declined for three consecutive weeks but is still above 240,000 tons. The profitability rate of steel enterprises has risen again. With sufficient profits, steel enterprises maintain strong production. In the short term, the demand for iron ore remains strong, supporting the ore price. The actual impact of production cuts in Tangshan needs to be observed. If the production cut is not large, the raw material price will not be under great pressure and may even strengthen slightly with the rise of steel prices [11] - Overall: At present, the price trend of the black sector is mainly affected by macro - sentiment, and the speculation sentiment of anti - involution related varieties still exists, but the impact on iron ore is small, and the price will gradually return to fundamentals. Considering that the high production of steel mills supports the ore price and there is no obvious restorative growth in overseas shipments in the short term, it is expected that the iron ore price will show a high - level consolidation trend in the short term. The actual impact of production cuts in Tangshan on the fundamentals needs to be observed [11] Group 4: Industry News - On August 12, 2025, the Ministry of Economy and Finance of South Korea issued Announcement No. 2025 - 171, proposing to impose a five - year anti - dumping duty on hot - rolled stainless steel plates originating from China. The tax rate for relevant enterprises and other Chinese producers/exported is 21.62%. The case involves products under South Korean tax numbers 7219.21.1010, etc., excluding some specific products such as hot - rolled coils [12] Group 5: Data Overview - The report provides a series of data charts related to the iron ore and steel industry, including the price of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price difference between high - grade ore and PB powder at Qingdao Port, the price difference between low - grade ore and PB powder at Qingdao Port, the basis between iron ore spot and the January contract at Qingdao Port, the shipment volume of iron ore from Brazil and Australia, the arrival volume of iron ore at 45 ports, the domestic mine capacity utilization rate, the trading volume of iron ore at main ports, the number of days of iron ore inventory available for steel mills, the inventory of imported sintered powder ore, the port iron ore inventory and the port clearance volume, the sample steel mill's tax - free molten iron cost, the blast furnace operating rate and iron - making capacity utilization rate, the electric furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate, the national daily average molten iron output, the apparent consumption of five major steel products, the weekly output of five major steel products, and the steel mill inventory of five major steel products [18][19][20][25][29][30][35][37][43]

1. Report Type and Date - The report is a daily review of coke and coking coal, dated August 14, 2025 [1][2] 2. Research Team - The black metal research team includes researchers Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, and Feng Zeren [3] 3. Market Performance 3.1 Futures Market - On August 13, the main contracts 2601 of coke and coking coal futures significantly declined, giving back most of the gains from the previous two trading days. The J2601 contract closed at 1737 yuan/ton, down 2.83%, with a trading volume of 35,677 lots and an open interest of 38,707 lots, an increase of 1,917 lots, and a capital inflow of 0.11 billion yuan. The JM2601 contract closed at 1245 yuan/ton, down 3.00%, with a trading volume of 2,684,599 lots and an open interest of 685,537 lots, a decrease of 33,409 lots, and a capital outflow of 10.86 billion yuan [5] 3.2 Spot Market - On August 13, the spot prices of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port were 1470 yuan/ton, with no change. The price in Tangshan was 1400 yuan/ton, also unchanged. The prices of low - sulfur main coking coal in different regions remained stable [8] 3.3 Technical Indicators - On August 13, the daily KDJ indicators of the coke and coking coal 2601 contracts showed divergent trends. The J and K values turned down, while the D value continued to rise. The daily MACD indicator of the coke 2601 contract changed from a golden cross the previous day to a death cross, and the daily MACD indicator of the coking coal 2601 contract showed a significant narrowing of the red column after a golden cross the previous day, nearly a death cross [8] 4. News and Policy 4.1 Coking Industry - On August 12, some coking enterprises in Shandong received oral notices of environmental production restrictions, requiring a 30% - 50% production cut from August 16 to early September. Specifically, from August 16 - 25, a 30% cut is required, from August 26 to September 3, a 50% cut, and production will resume on September 4 [10] 4.2 Coal Industry - On August 13, the National Mine Safety Administration held a press conference on the new version of the "Coal Mine Safety Regulations". The revision mainly includes significantly reducing the requirements for underground gas inspectors and inspection frequencies based on the actual coal mine operations, and relaxing some detailed requirements regarding the number of working faces to enterprise decision - making [10] 5. Fundamental Analysis 5.1 Coke - The coke production of independent coking plants has slowly recovered to a new high since mid - June, but the overall increase is still small. The coke production of steel mills has continued to decline, reaching a new low since early February. Port coke inventories have reached a new high since the end of May and tend to continue accumulating, while steel mills and coking plants have further reduced their inventories, reaching new lows since mid - December and early December last year respectively. The profit per ton of coke has been in the red for 12 consecutive weeks. The 5th round of spot price increase for coke was implemented on August 4, and the 6th round of price increase proposed on August 13 may be implemented the next day [10] 5.2 Coking Coal - From January to July, the year - on - year import volume of coal and lignite in China increased by 1.9 percentage points to - 13.0%. From January to June, the year - on - year import volume of coking coal in China still showed a large decline of - 7.4%. The inventories of refined coal and raw coal in mines have significantly decreased in the past 7 weeks, with declines of 50.8% and 32.1% respectively. The inventories of independent coking plants are hovering near a new high since early February, and the inventories of steel mills have continued to rise, reaching a new high since early February, while port inventories have reached a new low since early August last year. With the continuous increase in steel mill inventories and the cooling of coking plant replenishment, the spot price of coking coal is relatively strong [11] 6. Market Outlook - Affected by the production restrictions of steel enterprises in Tangshan, which boosted the profits of downstream finished products, and the superimposed production restrictions of coking enterprises in Shandong, although the recent increase in the spot prices of coke and coking coal has been relatively lagging, the futures market, especially the main 2601 contract, has risen significantly again. However, it failed to break through on August 13, and the market may shift to a mid - to - high - level oscillation in the future. Attention should be paid to changes in the stock market and risk appetite [11] 7. Industry News - The Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China, and the Financial Regulatory Administration issued the "Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Personal Consumption Loans", providing interest subsidies for personal consumption loans from September 1, 2025, to August 31, 2026 [12] - The National Energy Administration reported that in the first half of this year, the investment in key energy projects under construction and planned to start construction reached over 1.5 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 21.6% [12] - Ningxia Coal Industry Company of the National Energy Group achieved good results from June to July, with commodity coal production of 10.567 million tons, sales of 11.1551 million tons, chemical product sales of 1.139 million tons, and railway transportation volume of 12.939 million tons, breaking the historical record for the same period [13] - China has basically formed a three - dimensional coal transportation pattern, with "seven vertical and five horizontal" coal railway trunk lines, coal - handling ports in the north and receiving ports in the south, and 33 UHV transmission lines [13] - In Xinjiang, the railway department's daily coal shipment reached 410,000 tons as of July 24, with a cumulative external shipment of 50.774 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.3% [13] - Jizhong Energy adjusted its coal prices due to factors such as over - production inspections and the peak season of thermal coal demand [13] - Yunnan Coal Group's raw coal production in the first half of the year reached 5.4001 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 36.18%, and the stripping volume increased by 65.98% year - on - year [13] - The Indian rupee has been weak against the US dollar, and the Indian central bank has sold at least $5 billion to support the rupee. The US dollar index has been oscillating above the 98 mark, and the RMB has shown resilience [13] - The EIA expects US coal production to be 473 million tons in 2025, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%, and to decrease to 445 million tons in 2026 [13] - In July 2025, Russia's coal exports to China by rail were 8.355 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.96% and a year - on - year increase of 5.28%. From January to July, the total was 58.15 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.88% [13] - Russia's trade surplus from January to June 2025 decreased by 18.39% year - on - year to $63.9 billion. Exports decreased by $13.3 billion to $195.5 billion, and imports increased slightly by $1.1 billion to $131.6 billion [13] - OPEC's monthly report shows that in July, OPEC +'s average crude oil production was 41.94 million barrels per day, an increase of 335,000 barrels per day from June. The global crude oil demand growth forecast for 2025 remains at 1.29 million barrels per day, and the forecast for 2026 is adjusted from 1.28 million barrels per day to 1.38 million barrels per day [14] - Australia's coal export value in June 2025 was 6.252 billion Australian dollars, a month - on - month increase of 35.91% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.51%. From January to June, the cumulative export value was 31.006 billion Australian dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 30.26% [14] - Canada's coal export volume in May 2025 was 3.4116 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 186.79% and a month - on - month increase of 5.97%. The export value was $645 million, a year - on - year increase of 203.24% [14] - In June, India's oil imports from Russia accounted for 45% of its total imports, up from 44% in May. India's total oil imports in June fell below 5 million barrels per day for the first time in five months, to 4.86 million barrels per day, a 2% month - on - month decrease [14] 8. Data Overview - The report provides data on metallurgical coke and coking coal spot prices, production and inventory of coking plants and steel mills, and related basis data [15][16][17]

Report Summary 1. Core View - The lithium carbonate futures rose and then fell, with all related varieties closing down. Although there were many rumors, they did not become the market consensus. The spot price increased, with electric carbon rising by 3,000 to 81,000. Most enterprises remained on the sidelines, but due to the rigid demand of some downstream enterprises and the reluctance of upstream and traders to sell, the spot transaction price of lithium carbonate continued to rise significantly. The price of Australian ore rose to 970, and the price of lithium mica rose to 2,030. The salt plants using purchased lithium spodumene turned profitable by 825, and the production loss of salt plants using purchased lithium mica narrowed to 4,848. The enthusiasm of salt plants to start production was high. In the short term, as the impact of sentiment gradually decreases, the trading focus will return to the fundamentals, and the short - term upward trend of lithium prices will slow down [11]. 2. Section Summaries 2.1行情回顾与操作建议 - The lithium carbonate futures showed a pattern of rising and then falling, and related varieties closed down. The spot price of lithium carbonate increased, with electric carbon rising by 3,000 to 81,000. Market sentiment was mainly one of waiting and seeing, but due to demand and supply - side factors, the transaction price of spot lithium carbonate rose. The prices of Australian ore and lithium mica increased, and the profitability of salt plants improved. In the short term, the upward trend of lithium prices will slow down [11]. 2.2行业要闻 - The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association Lithium Industry Branch issued an initiative on the healthy development of the lithium industry, advocating fair competition, rational layout of new production capacity, and stable market supply through long - term cooperation agreements. It also called for increased R & D investment and innovation. The second - phase project of Anhui Xingchuan New Energy's high - power battery was launched, which will improve the new energy vehicle industry chain in Hefei High - tech Zone [14].

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: August 14, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The peak of the shipping season has likely passed, and the SCFIS has further declined this week with an increased rate of decline. Spot freight rates have likely reached their peak and are expected to enter a downward trend in August. The主力10 contract has a deep discount, and the market may engage in a game regarding the rate and magnitude of price cuts. It is recommended to take short positions on the 10 contract when the price rises [8]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot Market: The peak of the shipping season has likely passed, and the SCFIS has further declined this week with an increased rate of decline. Shipping companies have lowered their August quotes, and the freight rates are expected to enter a downward trend in August. The demand side is unlikely to improve significantly, and the supply of shipping capacity is relatively high during the off - season. The freight rates this year may be even lower during the off - season. It is recommended to take short positions on the 10 contract when the price rises [8]. 2. Industry News - Market Conditions: From August 4th to 8th, the China export container shipping market was basically stable, but the transport demand lacked growth momentum. The freight rates of most routes continued to decline, dragging down the composite index. In July, China's exports increased by 7.2% year - on - year, and the improvement in exports to Europe was the main driving force for the rebound in exports [9]. - Geopolitical Tensions: The threat from the Houthi armed forces to global shipping has escalated again, and the international shipping safety situation has continued to deteriorate. If the conflict worsens significantly, it may boost futures prices in the short term [10]. - Trade Policy: The US will maintain a 25% tariff on Japanese goods and may soon reach a trade agreement with India [10]. 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index: The SCFIS for the European route decreased by 2.7% from August 4th to 11th, and the SCFIS for the US West route decreased by 4.2% [12]. 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market - Not elaborated in detail in the text, only mentioned the trading data of container shipping European line futures on August 13th, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, etc. for different contracts [6]. 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - The report provides charts on the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index, global container shipping capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - Europe basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates, but does not provide detailed data analysis [12][16][19]

Report Summary 1. Report Type and Date - Report type: Stock Index Daily Review [1] - Date: August 14, 2025 [2] 2. Researchers - Nie Jiayi (Stock Index), contact: 021 - 60635735, email: niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F03124070 [3] - He Zhuoqiao (Macro Precious Metals), contact: 18665641296, email: hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3008762 [3] - Huang Wenxin (Macro Treasury Bonds and Shipping), contact: 021 - 60635739, email: huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3051589 [3] 3. Market Review and Outlook 3.1 Market Review - On August 13, the Wind All - A Index oscillated upward after the opening, closing up 1.02%, but over 3000 stocks declined. Among index spot, the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 closed up 0.79%, 0.21%, 1.40%, and 1.45% respectively, with small - and medium - cap stocks performing better. Index futures outperformed spot, with the IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts closing up 0.96%, 0.333%, 1.72%, and 1.72% respectively (calculated based on the previous trading day's closing price) [6] 3.2 Market Outlook - **External Market**: In the US, the unadjusted CPI in July was 2.7% year - on - year, lower than the expected 2.8% and the same as the previous value; the month - on - month was 0.2%, in line with expectations and lower than the previous 0.3%. The core CPI annual rate in July was 3.1%, higher than the expected 3% and the previous 2.9%, and the month - on - month was 0.3%, in line with expectations and higher than the previous 0.2%. The market currently expects a 95% probability of the Fed cutting interest rates at the September meeting [8] - **Domestic Market**: The Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China, and the National Financial Regulatory Administration recently formulated the Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy on Personal Consumption Loans. State - owned banks have followed up and announced the fiscal interest subsidy work on personal consumption loans, boosting the sentiment of the consumer sector. A - share trading volume increased again to 2.18 trillion yuan today, and the SSE Composite Index broke through the high point in October last year. Among sectors, communication, non - ferrous metals, and electronics led the gains, while the pharmaceutical and military sectors continued to rise after adjustments [8] - **Investment Suggestion**: The current market sentiment remains strong, and the index still has upward momentum. It is necessary to continue to monitor changes in trading volume and the disclosure of corporate semi - annual reports. Cautious investors can consider reducing positions to take profits and then adding positions after the SSE Composite Index stabilizes. In terms of market style, the dumbbell strategy remains unchanged, and the SSE 50 with stable earnings and the CSI 1000 with higher earnings recovery elasticity may perform relatively better [9] 4. Data Overview - The report provides various data charts, including the performance of domestic major indexes, market style performance, industry sector performance (Shenwan Primary Index), trading volume of the Wind All - A Index, trading volume of stock index spot, trading volume and open interest of stock index futures, basis trend of main contracts, inter - period spread trend, statistics of major ETF fund shares, and statistics of major ETF trading volume. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [11][13][14] 5. Industry News - The Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China, and the National Financial Regulatory Administration recently formulated the Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy on Personal Consumption Loans. After the news was released, state - owned banks followed up. On August 12, Agricultural Bank of China and Postal Savings Bank of China were the first to respond, announcing that they would implement interest subsidies on eligible personal consumption loans from September 1, 2025, in accordance with market - oriented and legal principles [30]

Group 1: General Information - Report date: August 14, 2025 [2] - Report type: Pig Daily Report [1] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Futures: On the 13th, the main 2511 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower and oscillated downward, closing in the red at the end of the session. The highest was 14,240 yuan/ton, the lowest was 13,975 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 14,045 yuan/ton, down 1.33% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 5,156 lots to 180,560 lots [8] - Spot: On the 13th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 13.75 yuan/kg, up 0.06 yuan/kg from the previous day [8] Market Analysis - Demand side: The utilization rate of pigsty is at a high level. Currently, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening is average, mainly in a wait-and-see state. The terminal demand is weak due to the hot weather, and the orders of slaughtering enterprises are average. The current slaughter progress is fast, and the开工 rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have increased slightly. On August 13th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 139,000 heads, an increase of 700 heads from the previous day and an increase of 3,500 heads from a week ago [9] - Supply side: According to Yongyi sample data, the planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises in August is 24.72 million heads, a month-on-month increase of 6.6% compared with the actual slaughter volume in July. The slaughter volume is expected to increase significantly. At the beginning of the month, the enthusiasm of farmers for slaughtering is high, and the slaughter progress is fast. The utilization rate of secondary fattening pigsty remains high, and there are still secondary fattening pigs to be released. The slaughter pressure still exists, and the slaughter weight fluctuates slightly [9] Outlook - Spot: In August, the slaughter of farmers increases, and the current enthusiasm for slaughtering is acceptable. At the same time, the demand is in the off-season, and the supply and demand remain relatively loose. The spot price of live pigs may continue to be under pressure [9] - Futures: Currently, the near-month 2509 contract of futures mainly follows the spot and oscillates weakly. In the medium and long term, the supply of live pigs will increase slightly. The 2511 and 2601 contracts belong to the peak demand contracts, and the demand increase is relatively large. The price performance may oscillate strongly. The domestic anti-involution initiative, high-quality development of the pig industry, and increasing environmental protection efforts in some regions are beneficial to the medium and long-term performance of pig prices. Pay attention to the impact of subsequent policies on production capacity [9] Group 3: Industry News - No specific industry news content is provided in the text Group 4: Data Overview - Self-breeding and self-raising profit per head: As of August 7th, the profit per head of self-breeding and self-raising was 119 yuan/head, a week-on-week decrease of 10 yuan/head [14] - Profit per head of purchasing piglets for fattening: As of August 7th, the profit per head of purchasing piglets for fattening was -54 yuan/head, a week-on-week increase of 28 yuan/head [14] - Average sales price of 15kg piglets: In the week of August 7th, the average sales price of 15kg piglets in the market was 516 yuan/head, a decrease of 10 yuan/head from the previous week [14] - Inventory of reproductive sows: As of July this year, the inventory of reproductive sows in sample farms was 1.15 million heads, a month-on-month increase of 0.52% and a year-on-year increase of 6.71% [14] - Planned slaughter volume: The planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises in August is 24.72 million heads, a month-on-month increase of 6.6% compared with the actual slaughter volume in July [14] - Average slaughter weight: As of the week of August 7th, the average slaughter weight of live pigs nationwide was 127.8 kg, a decrease of 0.18 kg from the previous week, a month-on-month decrease of 0.14%, and an increase of 1.6 kg compared with the same period last year, a year-on-year increase of 1.27% [14]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The soda ash industry is facing a combination of high inventory and weak demand, with the supply - demand contradiction intensifying. The fundamental situation remains one of strong supply and weak demand, but there are short - term expectations of production cuts, so the futures price is expected to fluctuate [8]. - The glass market has high mid - stream inventory in the short term, which restricts price rebound. However, in the long - term, policies are expected to be favorable for glass demand, and the futures price is expected to decline first and then rebound with fluctuations [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Soda Ash Market on August 13**: The main futures contract SA601 of soda ash fluctuated downward, closing at 1383 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton or 0.36%, with an increase of 64,009 lots in positions. The industry has high inventory (1.8851 million tons in factory inventory) and weak demand (photovoltaic glass daily melting volume dropped to 87,000 tons), and the supply side has high production due to low maintenance volume [7][8]. - **Glass Market on August 13**: As of August 8, 2025, the national float glass daily melting volume was 159,600 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 79.78%, a new high this year. The cold - repair production line daily melting volume was 21,400 tons. The order days of deep - processing enterprises were 9.55 days, a year - on - year decrease of 1.55%. The total glass inventory was about 59.499 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 3.87%, and the inventory days were 25.5 days, with a slowdown in inventory reduction [9]. 3.2 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of active contracts for soda ash and glass, weekly soda ash production, soda ash enterprise inventory, central China heavy soda market price, and flat glass production, with data sources from Wind and iFind [12][17][21]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: August 14, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Quotes - Futures Market Quotes: - Plastic 2601: Opened at 7390 yuan/ton, closed at 7381 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton (-0.03%), with a trading volume of 283252 lots and an increase of 18065 lots in open interest [5] - Plastic 2605: Opened at 7390 yuan/ton, closed at 7386 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.05%), with a trading volume of 15253 lots and an increase of 754 lots in open interest [5] - Plastic 2509: Opened at 7320 yuan/ton, closed at 7313 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.20%), with a trading volume of 212562 lots and a decrease of 20560 lots in open interest [5] - PP2601: Opened at 7128 yuan/ton, closed at 7107 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (-0.27%), with a trading volume of 329308 lots and an increase of 24541 lots in open interest [5] - PP2605: Opened at 7104 yuan/ton, closed at 7099 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (-0.25%), with a trading volume of 19306 lots and an increase of 4910 lots in open interest [5] - PP2509: Opened at 7085 yuan/ton, closed at 7081 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton (-0.24%), with a trading volume of 141836 lots and a decrease of 23955 lots in open interest [5] Group 3: Market Review and Outlook - Market Performance: L2509 opened lower, fluctuated up and down during the session, and finally closed at 7313 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.2%). The trading volume was 160,000 lots, and the open interest decreased by 20,560 to 212,562 lots. The main contract of PP switched to 2601, closing at 7107 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (-0.27%), with an increase of 24,500 lots in open interest to 329,300 lots [6] - Supply: The operating load of upstream plants continued to increase. Although the maintenance loss of PP was still at a high level, as the previously shut - down plants were gradually restarted and there were not many newly added maintenance plants, the impact of maintenance decreased. With the approaching of the 900,000 - ton/year capacity expansion plan of Ningbo Daxie Phase II, the incremental pressure on the supply side gradually emerged. For PE, the commissioning of Jilin Petrochemical at the end of July further expanded the production capacity base, and attention was paid to the new capacity addition of ExxonMobil Huizhou in August [6] - Demand: Downstream factories were still affected by the off - season. Coupled with the pressure of losses, the willingness to stock up was low. It was expected that the demand would gradually get out of the off - season in the second half of the month, but currently, downstream enterprises mostly maintained a low - inventory strategy [6] - Cost: The coal price was likely to rise due to coal mine production inspections and the peak summer coal - using season. The oil price might fall again due to the negative impact of OPEC+ production increase and the under - expected performance in the peak season [6] - Outlook: The loose fundamental pattern would continue to restrict the upward space. With the continuous release of new production capacity and the expected stocking demand driven by the "Golden September" peak season in the second half of the month, the polyolefin price might show a trend of bottom - building and then rebounding [6] Group 4: Industry News - Inventory: On August 13, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 795,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons (-2.45%) from the previous working day. The inventory at the same time last year was 815,000 tons [7] - PE Market: The PE market prices showed mixed trends. The linear futures opened lower and fluctuated, and the market trading atmosphere changed little. Traders reported prices with narrow fluctuations. The LDPE prices were firm, and downstream buyers purchased according to orders. The LLDPE prices in North China were 7200 - 7420 yuan/ton, in East China were 7240 - 7700 yuan/ton, and in South China were 7380 - 7700 yuan/ton [7] Group 5: Data Overview - Propylene Market: The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily referred to as 6500 - 6530 yuan/ton. The profit margins of downstream products were compressed, and the willingness to accept propylene prices decreased. The demand support for propylene weakened. Production enterprises mostly offered small discounts to promote transactions, and the overall market trading atmosphere was average [13] - PP Market: The PP market was mainly adjusted narrowly. The mainstream prices of North China drawn wire were 6930 - 7090 yuan/ton, in East China were 7000 - 7140 yuan/ton, and in South China were 6950 - 7150 yuan/ton [13]