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建信期货生猪日报-20251024
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-10-24 01:57
Report Information - Report Name: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: October 24, 2025 [2] Market Review and Operation Suggestions Pig Market - Futures: On the 22nd, the main pig contract 2601 opened flat, then bottomed out and rebounded in a narrow - range oscillation, closing with a negative line. The highest was 12,275 yuan/ton, the lowest was 12,135 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 12,220 yuan/ton, up 0.83% from the previous day. The total position of the index increased by 7 lots to 290,211 lots [6]. - Spot: On the 23rd, the national average price of foreign ternary pigs was 11.80 yuan/kg, up 0.09 yuan/kg from the previous day [6]. Pig Review - Supply: In the long - term, pig slaughter is expected to maintain a slight increase until the first half of next year. In the short - term, the pig slaughter volume in October continued to increase significantly, with high supply pressure. However, currently, the slaughter of key provincial breeding enterprises across the country shows a stable and slightly faster rhythm, and the short - term slaughter pressure of large - scale farms has been alleviated to some extent. Also, with the expansion of the price difference between fat and standard pigs, farmers have the sentiment of resisting price cuts and delaying slaughter for weight gain [7]. - Demand: Currently, secondary fattening continues to enter the market due to low meat - making costs and the expanding price difference between fat and standard pigs. After the price rebounded to a high level in some areas, it turned to a wait - and - see attitude. As the weather in the south cools down rapidly, terminal consumer demand may continue to rise, and the demand side may gradually improve. The orders of slaughtering enterprises have slightly increased, and the开工 rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have slightly increased. On October 23rd, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 164,600 heads, an increase of 300 heads from the previous day, 1,300 heads week - on - week, and 10,600 heads month - on - month [7]. - Overall: In the spot market, driven by the active replenishment demand of secondary fattening, the short - term supply has decreased, and the supply pressure has been slightly relieved. The spot price continues to oscillate and rebound. In the futures market, the pig supply before the Spring Festival is expected to maintain a slight increase. The demand elasticity of the 2601 contract still exists, and it may rebound driven by the spot market. However, the entry of secondary fattening in October was relatively concentrated, and farmers mostly have the sentiment of hoarding and waiting for weight gain. Coupled with the continuous release of production capacity, it will form double supply pressure in the fourth quarter, and the upward space may be limited. Attention should be paid to the sustainability and volume of secondary fattening replenishment in the later stage [7]. Data Overview - Breeding Profit: On October 16th, the average profit per self - breeding and self - raising pig was - 188.5 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 111 yuan/head; the average profit per pig purchased from outside was - 432.2 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 112 yuan/head [11]. - Piglet Price: In the week of October 16th, the average market sales price of 15 - kg piglets was 265 yuan/head, a decrease of 17 yuan/head from the previous week [11]. - Price Difference between Fat and Standard Pigs: In the week of October 16th, the price difference between 175 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.60 yuan/jin, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 yuan/jin [11]. - Fattening Cost: The cost of fattening a 110 - kg pig to 140 kg in this week was 11.63 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous week; the cost of fattening a 125 - kg pig to 150 kg was 11.95 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous week [11]. - Average Slaughter Weight: As of the week of October 16th, the average slaughter weight of pigs across the country was 128.25 kg, a decrease of 0.23 kg from the previous week (a week - on - week decrease of 0.18%), a decrease of 0.20 kg from the previous month (a month - on - month decrease of 0.16%), and an increase of 1.91 kg compared with the same period last year (a year - on - year increase of 1.51%) [11]. - Slaughtering Enterprise开工率: In the week of October 16th, the opening rate of slaughtering enterprises was 32.38%, a decrease of 2.15 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 5.07 percentage points year - on - year. The opening rate of enterprises fluctuated in the range of 30.95 - 34.44% during the week, and the enterprise opening rate increased slowly [11].
建信期货PTA日报-20251024
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-10-24 01:57
行业 PTA 日报 日期 2025 年 10 月 24 日 油) 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 硅)028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油燃料 研究员:任俊弛(PTA、MEG) 研究员:彭浩洲(尿素、工业 研究员:彭婧霖(聚烯烃) 研究员:刘悠然(纸浆) 研究员:冯泽仁(玻璃纯碱) 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1:期货行情 | ...
建信期货沥青日报-20251024
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-10-24 01:57
Report Information - Report Title: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Report Date: October 24, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Core View - Oil prices rebounded, and asphalt followed suit. The previous strategy of going long on asphalt and short on crude oil was gradually stopped for profit. For the time being, take a wait - and - see approach on single - side trading [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: For BU2601, the opening price was 3236 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3277 yuan/ton, the highest was 3300 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3236 yuan/ton, the increase was 2.31%, and the trading volume was 283,000 lots. For BU2512, the opening price was 3255 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3294 yuan/ton, the highest was 3311 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3255 yuan/ton, the increase was 2.01%, and the trading volume was 62,300 lots [6] - Spot Market: Prices in North China, Shandong, and South China rose, those in Northeast China fell significantly, and prices in other regions were relatively stable. The decline in Northeast was due to weakening road - oriented demand and falling low - sulfur asphalt prices [6] - Supply: Liaohe Petrochemical plans to increase production, but the reduction at East China's Jinling Petrochemical and the non - resumption plans of some refineries in Shandong and Henan may lead to a decline in this week's asphalt operating rate [6] - Demand: Rainfall decreased in the north, providing some support for rigid demand, but the capital problem of small and medium - sized projects remained severe, and speculative demand was also low [6] 2. Industry News - South China Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3340 - 3550 yuan/ton, remaining stable. Despite reduced supply from refineries, sufficient social inventory and low - price sales by some traders made it difficult to raise prices [7] - Shandong Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3270 - 3620 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The rebound of international oil prices and asphalt futures boosted market sentiment. Although refinery quotes were stable, some traders raised prices, and good sales of low - price resources drove up the low - end price [7] 3. Data Overview - The report presented multiple data charts, including South China asphalt spot price, Shandong asphalt basis, asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, asphalt cracking, asphalt social inventory, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [9][13][15]
建信期货MEG日报-20251024
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-10-24 01:57
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The current supply - demand outlook for ethylene glycol remains weak, but due to the boost from macro - sentiment, ethylene glycol is expected to show a slight upward trend [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On the 23rd, the opening price of the main ethylene glycol futures contract was 4060 yuan/ton, the highest was 4119 yuan/ton, the lowest was 4052 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 4086 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 4095 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan from the previous trading day's settlement price. The total trading volume was 188,925 lots, and the open interest was 334,305 lots. The EG2601 contract closed at 4095 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan, with an open interest of 334,305 lots, a decrease of 11,222 lots. The EG2605 contract closed at 4163 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan, with an open interest of 18,730 lots, an increase of 1,853 lots [7]. 3.2 Industry News - Last week, the operating rate of US refineries increased, boosting crude oil demand. After three consecutive weeks of inventory growth, crude oil inventories declined, and international oil prices continued to rise. On Wednesday (October 22), the settlement price of the December 2025 West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $58.50 per barrel, up $1.26 or 2.20% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $57.34 - $59.83. The settlement price of the December 2025 Brent crude oil futures on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $62.59 per barrel, up $1.27 or 2.07% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $61.38 - $64.17 [8]. - In the Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol market, the spot (October bottom) negotiation price this week was 4189 - 4190 yuan/ton, up 79.5 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The negotiation price before November 7 was 4168 - 4170 yuan/ton, and the negotiation price for late November was 4168 - 4173 yuan/ton. The basis of the current spot (October bottom) was at a premium of 94 - 95 yuan/ton compared to EG2601, the basis before November 7 was at a premium of 73 - 75 yuan/ton compared to EG2601, and the basis for late November was at a premium of 73 - 78 yuan/ton compared to EG2601 [8]. - The inventory of liquid ports in East China showed a downward trend, decreasing by 0.27 million tons or 0.14% compared to the previous period. The breakdown of inventory changes was as follows: ethylene glycol decreased by 2.30 million tons, methanol increased by 1.20 million tons, styrene decreased by 0.05 million tons, pure benzene increased by 1.20 million tons, diethylene glycol decreased by 0.43 million tons, toluene increased by 0.76 million tons, and xylene decreased by 0.65 million tons [8]. 3.3 Data Overview The report provides multiple data charts, including the PTA - MEG price difference, MEG price, MEG futures price, futures - spot price difference, international crude oil futures main contract closing price, raw material price index (ethylene), MEG downstream product price, and MEG downstream product inventory, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][15][16][18].
建信期货多晶硅日报-20251024
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-10-24 01:57
多晶硅日报 能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油燃料 研究员:任俊弛(PTA/MEG) 研究员:彭浩洲(工业硅/多晶 研究员:彭婧霖(聚烯烃) 研究员:刘悠然(纸浆) 期货从业资格号:F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与展望 市场表现:多晶硅主力合约价格窄幅震荡,PS2601 合约收盘价 53080 元/吨,涨 幅 1.07%,成交量 100862 手,持仓量 78928 手,净增 419 手。 现货价格:多晶硅 n 型复投料成交价格区间为 4.9-5.5 万元/吨,成交均价为 5.32 万元/吨,环比持平。 油) 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 硅)028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F30 ...
建信期货原油日报-20251024
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-10-24 01:57
行业 原油日报 | SC:元/桶 | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌幅% | 成交量(万手) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | WTI | 主力 | 57.59 | 59.38 | 57.59 | 59.83 | 3.74 | 35.67 | | Brent | 主力 | 61.34 | 63.89 | 64.04 | 61.09 | 4.69 | 43 | | SC | 主力(元/桶) | 446.5 | 459.7 | 463.7 | 445.8 | 4.05 | 15.16 | 数据来源:wind,建信期货研究发展部 日期 2025 年 10 月 24 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-6 ...
建信期货工业硅日报-20251024
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-10-24 01:51
油) 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 硅)028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 研究员:冯泽仁(玻璃纯碱) 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03134307 行业 日期 2025 年 10 月 24 日 工业硅日报 能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油燃料 研究员:任俊弛(PTA/MEG) 研究员:彭浩洲(工业硅/多晶 研究员:彭婧霖(聚烯烃) 研究员:刘悠然(纸浆) 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与展望 ...
建信期货聚烯烃日报-20251024
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-10-24 01:51
Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: October 24, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [2] - Researchers: Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), Li Jie (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil), Ren Junchi (PTA, MEG), Peng Haozhou (Urea, Industrial Silicon), Liu Youran (Pulp), Feng Zeren (Glass and Soda Ash) [2] Group 2: Market Quotes Futures Market Quotes | Contract | Opening Price (yuan/ton) | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Highest Price (yuan/ton) | Lowest Price (yuan/ton) | Change (yuan/ton) | Change Rate (%) | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Plastic 2601 | 6946 | 6999 | 7013 | 6934 | 85 | 1.23 | 531489 | -18375 | | Plastic 2605 | 6965 | 7044 | 7060 | 6965 | 91 | 1.31 | 62406 | 487 | | Plastic 2609 | 7019 | 7058 | 7072 | 7015 | 65 | 0.93 | 1129 | 194 | | PP2601 | 6633 | 6691 | 6710 | 6616 | 84 | 1.27 | 618484 | -14771 | | PP2605 | 6656 | 6740 | 6755 | 6656 | 88 | 1.32 | 126580 | 1854 | | PP2609 | 6684 | 6734 | 6754 | 6678 | 61 | 0.91 | 6035 | 1037 | [3] Spot Market Quotes - On October 23, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 760,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons (2.56%) from the previous working day; the inventory in the same period last year was 770,000 tons [5] - PE market prices showed mixed trends. The LLDPE prices in North China were in the range of 6900 - 7150 yuan/ton, in East China 6950 - 7500 yuan/ton, and in South China 7150 - 7500 yuan/ton [5] - The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily in the range of 6000 - 6020 yuan/ton. The propylene price remained stable at a low level, downstream factories made purchases as needed, production enterprises aimed for stable sales, and a small number of offers were slightly adjusted. The overall market was in a wait - and - see mood [5] - The PP market showed a warm adjustment, with some market prices rising by 10 - 40 yuan/ton. The mainstream prices of North China drawstrings were in the range of 6460 - 6570 yuan/ton, in East China 6500 - 6630 yuan/ton, and in South China 6500 - 6630 yuan/ton [5] Group 3: Market Review and Outlook - L2601 opened higher, fluctuated upward during the session, and closed higher at 6999 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton (1.23%), with a trading volume of 250,000 lots and an open interest decrease of 18,375 lots to 531,489 lots. PP2601 closed at 6691 yuan/ton, up 84 yuan (1.27%), with an open interest decrease of 14,771 lots to 618,500 lots [4] - The slight increase in futures prices boosted the market atmosphere, and end - users made appropriate replenishments for production. There is an expected launch of a 400,000 - ton PP plant in Guangxi Petrochemical in the second half of the month. In the short term, maintenance of plants is still concentrated, the support from the "Silver October" demand is weakening, and high downstream costs, inventory, and limited profitability are suppressing the purchasing enthusiasm [4] - The operating rate of PE agricultural film is still at a high level, but the concentrated demand will decrease later, and the support from the demand side will weaken. The cost side rebounded strongly during the day, and the geopolitical situation and the results of China - US trade talks are uncertain, leading to wider oil price fluctuations [4] - The absolute prices of polyolefins are in a low - level range, and they rebounded slightly due to cost support. However, weak supply - demand and signals of open interest reduction are restricting the upward space [4] Group 4: Data Overview - The report includes figures such as L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate, with data sources including Wind and Zhuochuang Information [7][10][12]
建信期货集运指数日报-20251023
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-10-23 05:23
Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: October 23, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In October, it is the traditional off - season, with limited capacity control and persistent supply pressure, causing the current spot freight rates to decline. However, shipping companies are raising prices for the second half of October and November to support prices for the year - end long - term contract season. The freight rates are likely to form a bottom - out and rebound trend, and the bottom of the freight rates for the year may have emerged. Also, due to the renewed conflict between Israel and Hamas, the Red Sea is unlikely to resume navigation this year, and there is an opportunity for the December contract to recover from over - decline [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The current spot freight rates are falling due to the traditional off - season in October and limited capacity control. Shipping companies are raising prices for the second half of October and November. For example, Maersk's large container rates for the second half of October on the Shanghai - Rotterdam route reach up to $1911, and $2350 in the first week of November. Although the price increase may not fully materialize, the freight rates are likely to bottom out. The December contract has an over - decline recovery opportunity because of the Israel - Hamas conflict and the unlikelihood of Red Sea resumption this year [8] 2. Industry News - The China Export Container Shipping Market continued its rebound this week. In September, China's exports in US dollars increased by 8.3% year - on - year. On October 17, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index rose by 12.9% from the previous period. For European routes, China's exports to the EU in September increased by 14.2% year - on - year, and the freight rate on October 17 rose by 7.2%. For Mediterranean routes, the market situation was similar to that of European routes, with the freight rate rising by 3.5%. For North American routes, China's exports to the US decreased by 27% in September, but the spot booking prices rebounded, with the freight rates to the US West and East rising by 31.9% and 16.4% respectively. There was a new conflict between Israel and Hamas, and the US warned that Hamas's attacks might violate the cease - fire agreement [9][10] 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - From October 13 to October 20, 2025, the SCFIS for European routes increased from 1031.8 to 1140.38, a rise of 10.5%. The SCFIS for US West routes increased from 862.48 to 863.46, a rise of 0.1% [12] 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Routes) Futures Market - Data on the trading of container shipping European routes futures contracts on October 22 are provided, including opening prices, closing prices, settlement prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, open interests, and changes in open interests for different contracts such as EC2510, EC2512, etc. [6] 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - There are charts showing European container ship capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [17][21]
建信期货钢材日评-20251023
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-10-23 02:49
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical tensions are easing, and there are expectations of improved terminal demand for steel, leading to a price rebound. However, caution is needed as steel mill profits are still declining. The path to profit recovery will determine the price rebound rhythm. If it's through raw material price cuts, the negative feedback will be greater and the price increase will be more tortuous. If it's due to significantly improved terminal demand, the price increase will be smoother. Without trade conflict disruptions, the latter is more likely [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Futures Market**: On October 22, the main contracts of rebar and hot-rolled coil futures 2601 fluctuated upwards, reaching the highest closing price in the past 7 trading days. The rebar RB2601 closed at 3068 yuan/ton, up 0.59%; the hot-rolled coil HC2601 closed at 3247 yuan/ton, up 0.81% [5]. - **Spot Market**: On October 22, the prices of individual rebar and hot-rolled coil spot markets rebounded. The rebar prices in Hefei, Zhengzhou, and Nanning rose by 10 - 30 yuan/ton; the hot-rolled coil prices in Hangzhou, Guangzhou, and Wuxi rose by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, while the price in Shijiazhuang fell by 30 yuan/ton [7]. - **Technical Analysis**: The daily KDJ indicators of the rebar 2601 and hot-rolled coil 2601 contracts showed a divergent upward trend after a golden cross on October 20 and 21 respectively. The daily MACD green bars of both contracts have been significantly narrowing for 3 consecutive trading days [7]. - **Outlook**: Geopolitical tensions are easing, and there are expectations of improved terminal demand for steel. However, steel mill profits are still declining. The path to profit recovery will determine the price rebound rhythm [9]. 3.2 Industry News - **Company News**: Anyang Iron and Steel announced that its subsidiary, Henan Angang Zhoukou Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., plans to increase its registered capital by no more than 1 billion yuan through equity financing, and Anyang Iron and Steel intends to waive its pre - emptive right [10]. - **Coal Market**: Domestic thermal coal prices have risen sharply. As of October 17, 2025, the price of Qinhuangdao Port Q5500 thermal coal was 748 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton week - on - week. The price increase in production areas was even greater. The winter heating season may start early, and the thermal coal consumption is expected to support coal prices. The target price of thermal coal for the year has been raised to 750 - 800 yuan/ton [10]. - **International Trade**: The EU Commission has made a positive anti - dumping final ruling on steel track shoes originating from China, with an anti - dumping tax of 62.5% [10]. - **Company Performance**: Brazil's Vale's iron ore production in Q3 reached 94.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. It is expected to achieve its 2025 production target. The sales volume of iron ore pellets increased by 5.1% year - on - year, and the price of iron ore powder rose by 4.2% [11]. - **Coal Trade**: In August 2025, Australia's coal export value was 5.425 billion Australian dollars, a month - on - month increase of 1.35% but a year - on - year decrease of 26.53%. From January to August, the cumulative export value was 41.379 billion Australian dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 29.20%. From April to August this year, India's coal imports were 118 million tons, a 2.57% decrease compared to the same period last year [11][12]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the social inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coil in major cities, the weekly output of five major steel products, the steel mill inventory of five major steel products, the blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates and capacity utilization rates, the national daily average pig iron output, the apparent consumption of five major steel products, and the basis between Shanghai rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and January contracts [16][20][23][27][29].