Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report [1] - Date: October 24, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3] Group 2: Copper Core View - Affected by the improved macro - atmosphere and strong medium - term fundamentals, copper prices are expected to continue rising next week [7]. Market Review - This week, the main contract of Shanghai copper operated in the range of (84410, 87860), with total positions rising 7% to 584,000 lots. LME copper operated in the range of (10536.5, 10969). The net long position of funds decreased by about 3% to 57,476 lots, and the commercial net short position decreased by 7% to 73,093 lots [7]. Fundamental Analysis Supply - Copper ore processing fees are in a deeper inversion. SMM seven - port copper concentrate inventory decreased. In September, the import of copper concentrates and their ores decreased month - on - month. Domestic cold - material processing fees fell again. In September, domestic electrolytic copper production decreased significantly, and it is expected to continue to decline in October [10][11][13]. Demand - The weekly operating rate of scrap copper rods increased slightly, while that of refined copper rods decreased. The operating rate of wire and cable and enameled wire increased slightly, but the overall consumption was lackluster [15][16]. Spot - Domestic copper stocks decreased by 0.08 to 274,000 tons, and bonded area stocks decreased by 0.49 to 92,800 tons. The LME + COMEX market increased stocks by 1,439 tons to 450,000 tons [17]. Group 3: Lithium Carbonate Core View - Due to short - term supply - demand boom, continuous inventory reduction, and unresolved supply - side disturbances, lithium carbonate futures are expected to move up [27]. Market Review - This week, lithium carbonate futures rose, with the main contract operating in the range of (75340, 80880), and total positions increasing by 7.5% to 812,000 lots. Spot prices also moved up, but the trading was dull [26]. Fundamental Analysis Supply - Lithium ore prices moved up, and the losses of salt plants increased. The weekly output of lithium carbonate reached a new high, and the production costs of purchasing lithium spodumene and lepidolite increased [30][31]. Demand - The prices of ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium cobalt oxide, and battery cells all increased. The domestic power market is in the peak season, and the demand for materials is supported [32][33][34]. Spot - The price difference between electric - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is at a low level. Lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 2,292 tons to 130,366 tons [36][37]. Group 4: Aluminum Core View - Aluminum prices are expected to remain in a high - level shock, with a low - buying strategy recommended [46]. Market Review - This week, Shanghai aluminum rose unilaterally, hitting a new high for the year. The overseas market is worried about tariff risks. The demand side has gradually fulfilled its expectations in the peak season, but the downstream performance lacks highlights [42]. Fundamental Changes Bauxite - Domestic bauxite supply is tight, and prices in some regions have risen slightly. Imported bauxite prices are weak [47][48]. Alumina - Alumina prices have initially stabilized, with the bottom slightly rising. The import window remains open [50][51]. Electrolytic Aluminum - The profit of the smelting industry remains at a high level. The operating capacity remains unchanged. The export of aluminum profiles has slightly recovered, and the import window of aluminum ingots remains closed. The operating rate of downstream processing enterprises has declined slightly, and aluminum ingot stocks have decreased slightly [56][64][66]. Group 5: Nickel Core View - Nickel prices remain in a range - bound pattern, with support at the 120,000 level. Pay attention to overseas market changes and Indonesian policy risks [80]. Market Review - This week, Shanghai nickel was in a narrow - range shock in the first four days and rose on Friday, but it has not broken out of the range - bound pattern. The futures market maintains a contango structure, and the import window remains closed [75][80]. Fundamental Changes Nickel Ore - The prices of Philippine and Indonesian nickel ores remained stable this week. Some smelters have started procurement plans in advance [81]. Ferronickel - Ferronickel prices continued to fall this week, and it is expected that the downward trend will continue [80]. Electrolytic Nickel - The production capacity of electrowon nickel is rapidly releasing, but the output is difficult to increase significantly in the short term [92][93]. Nickel Sulfate - Nickel salt prices remained stable this week. It is expected that the supply of nickel sulfate will still increase slightly in October [96][98]. Stainless Steel - The inventory of stainless steel in Wuxi and Foshan decreased slightly this week, but it is expected that the inventory will not decline significantly [103]. Group 6: Zinc Core View - Zinc ore processing fees have peaked and declined. The supply of zinc ingots has increased, and the demand is weak. Pay attention to the implementation of export volume and gradually enter the market for reverse arbitrage [106]. Market Review - LME zinc inventory is at a low level, and the risk of structural shortage has increased. Shanghai zinc rose oscillatingly. The import window has been deeply closed since July, and there is a small amount of exports [105]. Fundamental Analysis Supply - Domestic zinc ore processing fees have peaked and declined. In October, the overall output of refined zinc increased month - on - month. The import window remains closed, and the export window is open [115][116]. Demand - The operating rates of galvanizing, die - casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide all decreased slightly, and the overall demand has declined [117][118]. Spot - Domestic zinc stocks decreased to 162,100 tons, and LME zinc inventory decreased to below 40,000 tons [119].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's economy shows an external - stable and internal - weak pattern, with large deflationary pressure and no urgent need for a new round of comprehensive growth - stabilizing measures. The new policy - based financial instruments are expected to boost the economy in Q4 [4]. - Sino - US trade tensions show signs of easing, and the upcoming consultations and summit are expected to reach agreements on relaxing export controls, commodity purchases, and extending the suspension of high - tariffs [15]. - The 20th Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee sets the goals for the 15th Five - Year Plan period, aiming to promote high - quality development and modernization [17]. - The US dollar index is expected to fluctuate in a low - level range in H2 2025, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar will be oscillatingly strong with pressure [19][21]. - The upward trend of precious metals since late August may continue until 2026, but investors need to control positions due to short - term adjustment risks [32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Environment Review 3.1.1 Economy - **GDP**: In Q3 2025, China's real GDP grew 4.8% year - on - year, a 0.4 - percentage - point decline from Q2. The nominal GDP grew 3.73% year - on - year, a 0.21 - percentage - point decline from the previous quarter. The GDP deflator shrank 1.02% year - on - year, with deflationary pressure remaining high [4]. - **Investment**: From January to September 2025, cumulative fixed - asset investment decreased by 0.3% year - on - year, turning from a 0.5% increase in January - August. Real estate investment decreased by 13.9% year - on - year, manufacturing investment increased by 4%, and infrastructure investment increased by 3.34% [6]. - **Consumption**: In September 2025, total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3% year - on - year, a 0.4 - percentage - point decline from August [6]. - **Output**: In September 2025, industrial output increased by 6.5% year - on - year, a 1.3 - percentage - point increase from August [7]. - **Real Estate**: From January to September 2025, new - home sales area decreased by 5.5% year - on - year, and new - home sales volume decreased by 7.9% year - on - year. Housing prices continued to decline, and inventory pressure increased [8][10]. 3.1.2 Focus - Sino - US trade tensions have shown signs of easing. After multiple rounds of tariff hikes and counter - measures, the two sides will hold the fifth - round economic and trade consultations in Malaysia from October 24 - 27, and the leaders will meet on October 30 in South Korea [11][15]. 3.1.3 Policy - The 20th Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC Central Committee was held from October 20 - 23, 2025. It put forward the main goals for the 15th Five - Year Plan period, including high - quality development, technological self - reliance, and social progress [16][17]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market Analysis 3.2.1 US Treasury Yields and US Dollar Exchange Rate - The US dollar index is expected to fluctuate in a low - level range of 95 - 102 in H2 2025. The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar will be oscillatingly strong with pressure, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield will fluctuate between 3.8% - 4.5% [19][21][23]. 3.2.2 Market Investment Sentiment - As of October 23, 2025, the SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 1052.4 tons, 22.8% higher than the low point in May 2024, and the SLV Silver ETF holdings were 15469 tons, 16% higher than the low point in May 2024 [24][25]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals Review and Outlook - In the long - term, geopolitical risks and the restructuring of the global trade and currency system support the upward trend of gold prices. In the medium - term, economic recession risks and liquidity premium expectations make gold prices stronger. In the short - term, gold prices have entered a new upward trend since late August. The short - term adjustment risks exist, but the upward trend may continue until 2026 [28][29][32]. 3.2.4 Precious Metals - Related Charts - The gold - silver ratio has rebounded slightly in the second half of October. The correlation between gold and the US dollar index has changed from negative to positive, and the negative correlation between gold and crude oil has increased [33][34].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of October 23, the carbon quota price in the national carbon market was 53.87 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 3.18%. The current carbon price level is equivalent to the opening price in 2021 and has declined by over 50% compared to the peak in 2024. The low carbon price is partly due to the concentrated selling of surplus enterprises under the carry - over rules, and the price may stabilize after the selling pressure subsides in November [7]. - The "十五五" period will accelerate the green and low - carbon transformation of energy, construct a new energy system, and shift from the energy consumption dual - control system to the carbon emission dual - control system. Energy - saving and carbon - reduction actions will be carried out in key industries, aiming to save over 150 million tons of standard coal and reduce about 400 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Carbon Market Weekly Overview - The carbon quota price in the national carbon market was 53.87 yuan/ton as of October 23, with a weekly increase of 3.18%. Since June this year, the carbon quota price has been falling, and the current price is similar to the 2021 opening price, down over 50% from the 2024 peak. The optimal carry - over rate is about 40%, and surplus enterprises can carry over 60% of their surplus quotas to 2025, but they need to apply before June 10, 2026. The current low carbon price is related to the concentrated selling of surplus enterprises, and the price may stabilize after November [7]. - In October 2025, the expected buying price of national carbon emission allowances (CEA) is 55.39 yuan/ton, the selling price is 60.63 yuan/ton, and the mid - price is 58.00 yuan/ton. In December 2025, the expected buying price of CEA is 62.10 yuan/ton, the selling price is 70.45 yuan/ton, and the mid - price is 66.28 yuan/ton. In October 2025, the expected buying price of China Certified Emission Reductions (CCER) is 69.00 yuan/ton, the selling price is 76.83 yuan/ton, and the mid - price is 72.92 yuan/ton [8]. 3.2 Market News - According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on October 20, the GDP in the first three quarters of China was 1,015,036 billion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 5.2% at constant prices. The GDP in the first, second, and third quarters increased by 5.4%, 5.2%, and 4.8% respectively [9]. - On October 23, the National Energy Administration reported that the total electricity consumption in September was 888.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 4.5%. In the first three quarters, the cumulative electricity consumption was 7,767.5 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. The electricity consumption in the third quarter was 2.9 trillion kWh, which was high due to high - temperature processes in July and the recovery of the macro - economy [9][10]. - On October 24, it was announced that during the "十五五" period, efforts will be made to develop non - fossil energy, promote the clean and efficient use of fossil energy, and accelerate the green and low - carbon transformation of industries and lifestyles. By 2030, the utilization of bulk solid waste is expected to reach about 4.5 billion tons. The carbon emission dual - control system will be implemented, and energy - saving and carbon - reduction actions will be carried out in key industries [10]. 3.3 Market Data - No specific data content is provided in the given text, only the names of the figures are mentioned, such as "Figure 3: Year - on - year growth rate of power generation (%)" and "Figure 4: Year - on - year growth rate of newly installed power generation equipment (%)" [13].

Report Information - Report Title: Financial Futures Weekly Report [1] - Date: October 24, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Views - The A-share market showed a "slow bull" trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the previous high on October 24 due to the easing of Sino-US negotiations. The market style is expected to adopt a dumbbell strategy in the short term, with balanced allocation of CSI 300 and CSI 500. [7][8][13] - The bond market was suppressed by the stock market this week, and bond yields mostly increased, with the short end rising more significantly. The bond market lacks direct positive stimuli in the short term, and it is still necessary to wait patiently for a counterattack opportunity. [99] - The container shipping futures continued to rebound this week, with the SCFIS rising above 1100 points. The bottom of the freight rate for the year may have been reached, and there is an opportunity for the December contract to recover from oversold conditions. [116][131] Summary by Directory Stock Index Market Review - The A-share market showed a trend of "short-term correction followed by a strong run, a sharp decline after being impacted externally, a rebound, and then a continuous upward trend, and a consolidation after the positive news was realized and the negotiations were deadlocked." From October 20 to 24, the A-share market rose with shrinking volume, and small and medium-cap stocks performed more strongly. [7][10] - In the future, it is necessary to pay attention to the outcome of the Sino-US negotiations. If there are no black swan events, it may help the index break through further. In the short term, the market style will adopt a dumbbell strategy, with balanced allocation of CSI 300 and CSI 500. [13] 成交持仓分析 - The trading volume of stock index futures decreased, and the positions also generally declined. The average daily trading volumes of IF, IH, IC, and IM were 115,200 lots, 54,500 lots, 134,500 lots, and 225,700 lots respectively, with changes of -51,700 lots, -23,600 lots, -47,800 lots, and -64,800 lots compared with last week. The average daily positions were 257,100 lots, 91,800 lots, 245,300 lots, and 355,200 lots respectively, with changes of -20,000 lots, -9,500 lots, -16,000 lots, and -12,300 lots compared with last week. [14] 基差、跨期价差及跨品种价差分析 - The basis trend was differentiated. The basis of CSI 300 narrowed, the basis of SSE 50 changed from discount to premium, and the basis of CSI 500 and CSI 1000 also narrowed. The annualized basis rate also showed similar trends. [18][19][21] - The spread between the next-month and current-month contracts of IF, IC, and IM was negative, and the spread of IH was positive. The spread between the current-quarter and current-month contracts of IF, IC, and IM was negative, and the spread of IH was positive. [22] - Small and medium-cap stocks performed relatively better. The ratios of CSI 300/SSE 50, CSI 1000/CSI 500, CSI 300/CSI 1000, and SSE 50/CSI 1000 were at different historical percentile levels. [25] Industry Sector Overview - In terms of the CSI 300 sub-industry, the communication, information, and industrial sectors led the gains, while the consumption and real estate sectors led the losses. In terms of the CSI 500 sub-industry, the information, energy, and industrial sectors led the gains, while the pharmaceutical and consumption sectors led the losses. [26][29] - From the perspective of the primary industry, the communication, electronics, and power equipment sectors led the gains, while the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, food and beverage, and beauty care sectors led the losses. [31] Valuation Comparison - As of October 24, 2025, the rolling price-to-earnings ratios of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 14.4576 times, 12.26 times, 33.948 times, and 46.4532 times respectively, and they were at the 90.37%, 94.11%, 81.2%, and 73.01% percentile levels in the past ten years. [33] Treasury Bonds This Week's Market Review - Treasury Bond Futures Market: The stock-bond seesaw effect continued this week, and the stock market rebound suppressed the bond market. The long-term futures performed stronger than the spot bonds, while the short-term bonds were the opposite. There is a certain positive arbitrage space in the 30-year, 10-year, and 2-year main contracts, but it is necessary to be cautious when participating in the reverse arbitrage strategy. The 10-year basis is particularly low and has a certain upward regression space. The 2603 contract has poor liquidity, so it is not recommended to participate in the inter-period strategy. Pay attention to the flattening strategy. [38][41][45][56][59] - Bond Spot Market: The yields of most treasury bond spot bonds increased this week, with the short end rising more significantly. The US bond yields first decreased and then increased. [70] - Funding: As the tax payment peak approached, the central bank switched to net investment. The funding situation tightened slightly but remained generally stable, with no liquidity stratification between banks and non-banks. [77][79] - Interest Rate Derivatives: The yields of interest rate swaps increased slightly this week, and the liquidity expectation was stable. [93] Market Analysis - Recent Market Logic: In October, the bond market entered a window period where risks were gradually cleared after negative news was realized. The market stabilized but still lacked a trigger for a counterattack, such as clear monetary easing. It is necessary to pay attention to the possible repeated risks in Sino-US trade negotiations. [99] - This Week's Fundamental Situation: The GDP in the third quarter increased by 4.8% year-on-year, in line with expectations. From the demand side, exports and consumption were relatively resilient, while investment demand weakened significantly. The industrial production demand rebounded, but there is a risk of a decline in the fourth quarter. The export in September exceeded expectations, but the domestic demand side performed poorly, with consumption slowing down significantly and investment falling into negative growth. The real estate market has not yet stabilized. [100][101][102] - Next Week's Bond Market Outlook: Short-term monetary easing is difficult to implement, and the bond market lacks a clear main line. It is still necessary to trade bonds based on the stock market. Pay attention to the Sino-US trade negotiations next week. [113] Next Week's Open Market Maturity and Important Economic Calendar - A total of 156.72 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and MLF will mature next week. Economic data such as industrial enterprise profits for September and the official PMI for October will be released. [115] Shipping Index Market Review - The container shipping futures continued to rebound this week, with the SCFIS rising above 1100 points. The spot freight rates of shipping companies continued to increase in November, and the far-month pessimistic expectations continued to be repaired due to the resurgence of the Hamas-Israel conflict. [116] Container Shipping Market Situation - Spot Market: The freight rates of ocean routes continued to rebound, with the rates of European and American routes increasing. Shipping companies continued to support the freight rates for November, and the bottom of the freight rate for the year may have been reached. [124][125] - Container Shipping Supply and Demand Fundamentals: On the supply side, the container shipping capacity in Europe in October was still at a relatively high level in the off-season, and the supply pressure still exists. On the demand side, the macro demand in the eurozone continued to recover weakly, and the demand side may have limited support for the container shipping price. [127][128] Market Outlook - October is a traditional off-season, and the supply pressure still exists. However, shipping companies have started to support the freight rates for the year-end long-term contract season, and the bottom of the freight rate for the year may have been reached. There is an opportunity for the December contract to recover from oversold conditions. [131]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical situation has led to a short - term rebound in oil prices, but the sustainability of sanctions and their impact on the market need to be closely monitored. The crude oil market faces supply - demand imbalances, with increasing supply and weakening demand in the future [7][8][10]. - The price of asphalt may follow the short - term upward trend of oil prices, but the sustainability is questionable, and it may fall again later due to weakening demand [26][27]. - The soda ash market is in a state of oversupply, and the contract price is expected to fluctuate. With no substantial positive factors, the price may fluctuate weakly [50][51][53]. - The supply - demand imbalance in the industrial silicon market persists, and the futures price is expected to oscillate within a narrow range [74]. - The polysilicon market has insufficient endogenous improvement power, with supply - demand remaining loose and continued inventory accumulation. The price is expected to oscillate, and it is advisable to wait and see [89]. - The pulp market may continue to oscillate widely in the short term due to weak overseas consumption and slow start of the traditional peak season [104]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil prices rose this week. Geopolitical factors such as sanctions on Russian oil companies may support the prices of Middle - Eastern oil types, but the sustainability of sanctions is uncertain. If sanctions ease, oil prices may fall again [7]. - **Fundamental Changes**: Geopolitical tensions have supported oil prices, but historical experience shows that prices may fall without further support. EIA data shows that US crude oil and product inventories decreased this week, and refinery operating rates rebounded. However, OPEC+ continues to increase production, and the market is worried about supply over - capacity. On the demand side, although the demand in the second and third quarters was slightly higher than expected, it is expected to be weak in the remaining time of this year and 2026 [8][10][11]. Asphalt - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: The asphalt futures price rose this week, while the spot price fell slightly. The cost side is affected by oil prices, and the supply side is expected to remain stable overall, but the demand side is seasonally weakening. Short - term prices may follow oil prices, but the sustainability is doubtful, and long - positions should take flexible profit - taking [26][27]. - **Fundamental Changes**: The cost side is affected by geopolitical factors. The supply side has some changes in refinery production plans, with overall operating rates expected to be stable. The demand side is weakening seasonally, and the inventory of both factories and the society has decreased. The production profit has generally increased [28][30][31]. Soda Ash - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: The soda ash futures price fluctuated slightly and was slightly stronger. Supply was affected by equipment maintenance, but overall production remained stable. Downstream demand was mainly for low - price replenishment, and the fundamental driving force was still insufficient. The market was in a state of oversupply, and the price was expected to oscillate, with a possible weakening trend [50][51][53]. - **Soda Ash Market Situation**: - **Supply**: The weekly production and operating rate of soda ash decreased slightly. Some enterprises had equipment maintenance, and the overall supply remained abundant. In the fourth quarter, supply may be further affected by new capacity [54][55]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of soda ash increased again, with heavy - soda ash inventory increasing significantly. The inventory pressure was significant, and the supply - demand imbalance continued to dominate the market [56]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of soda ash was expected to oscillate narrowly, with a weak balance between supply and demand and insufficient upward momentum [63]. - **Glass Import and Export**: The export volume of soda ash in September decreased slightly, but the cumulative export volume from January to September increased significantly compared with last year. The import volume was small [64]. - **Downstream**: The demand for soda ash from the float glass industry was relatively stable, but the industry was still in a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The demand from the photovoltaic glass industry was in a weak - balance state, and the inventory pressure might restrict price increases [68][69]. Industrial Silicon - **Industrial Silicon Futures Review and Outlook**: The spot price of industrial silicon was stable, and the futures price oscillated. The supply - demand imbalance persisted, and the price was expected to oscillate within the range of 8500 - 9000 yuan/ton [74]. - **Industrial Silicon Fundamental Overview**: The prices of main products in the industrial silicon industry chain were stable. The spot inventory was slowly increasing, and the production continued to rise. The demand from the polysilicon and organic silicon sectors had different performances, and the export volume decreased slightly in September [74][76][77]. Polysilicon - **Polysilicon Market Review and Outlook**: The price of polysilicon was stable, and the futures price oscillated. The photovoltaic industry had insufficient endogenous improvement power, with supply - demand remaining loose and continued inventory accumulation. It was advisable to wait and see [88][89]. - **Photovoltaic Industry Fundamental Overview**: The prices of main products in the polysilicon industry chain were stable. The production of polysilicon continued to increase, but the terminal demand was weak, and the inventory of the entire industry chain increased slightly [90][92]. Pulp - **Pulp Market Review and Outlook**: The pulp futures price rose this week, and the spot price of wood pulp showed a differentiated trend. Overseas consumption was weak, and the supply pressure of domestic and foreign pulp mills was still being released. The demand side of the pulp market was slowly increasing, and the traditional peak season started slowly. The price was expected to oscillate widely in the short term [103][104]. - **Fundamental Changes**: - **Paper Pulp Shipment Volume of Main Producing Countries**: In August, the shipment volume of chemical pulp from the world's top 20 pulp - producing countries increased year - on - year, with different trends for softwood and hardwood pulp [105]. - **Paper Pulp Import Volume**: In September, China's paper pulp import volume increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [104]. - **Paper Pulp Inventory Situation**: The inventory days of global producers' softwood and hardwood pulp showed different trends, and the inventory in major regions and ports increased [115]. - **Downstream Market**: The performance of downstream base papers was still differentiated, and the demand for the pulp market increased slowly [104].

021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 焦炭焦煤日评 日期 2025 年 10 月 24 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | | | | 表1：10月23日焦炭焦煤期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、手、亿元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | J2601 | 170 ...

021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 铁矿石日评 日期 2025 年 10 月 24 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | | | | 表1：10月23日钢材、铁矿期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、%、手、亿元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | RB2601 | ...

Report Overview - Report Type: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: October 24, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - In October, being the traditional off - season with limited capacity control and supply pressure, the container shipping spot freight rates are continuously falling. However, shipping companies are raising rates for the second half of October and November in preparation for the year - end long - term contract season. Although the rate increase may not fully materialize, a bottom - up trend is likely to form, and the bottom of freight rates for the year may have been reached. The December contract has an opportunity for oversold recovery due to the Israel - Hamas conflict affecting the Red Sea route [8]. - The China export container shipping market continued its rebound this week. The overall transport demand was stable, and the freight rates on ocean routes increased, driving up the comprehensive index. China's exports in September showed positive growth, especially to the EU, which was the main growth driver in the export market [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 (Market Review and Operation Suggestions) - **Spot Freight Situation**: In October, the traditional off - season, with limited capacity control, the supply pressure remains, and the spot freight rates are falling. Shipping companies are raising rates for the second half of October and November. For example, Maersk's rates for the Shanghai - Rotterdam route increased. Although the rate increase may not fully materialize, the freight rates are likely to bottom out and recover. The December contract has an oversold recovery opportunity due to the Israel - Hamas conflict [8]. 3.2行业要闻 (Industry News) - **Market Rebound**: The China export container shipping market continued to rebound this week. The overall transport demand was stable, and the freight rates on ocean routes increased, driving up the comprehensive index. China's exports in September increased by 8.3% year - on - year, and the export growth rate to the EU reached 14.2% in September, a three - year high [9]. - **Route - specific Situations**: - **European Routes**: The transport demand was stable, and the spot market booking prices continued to rebound. The Shanghai - Europe basic port market freight rate on October 17 increased by 7.2% compared to the previous period [9]. - **Mediterranean Routes**: The market situation was similar to that of European routes, and the freight rates continued to rise. The Shanghai - Mediterranean basic port market freight rate on October 17 increased by 3.5% compared to the previous period [9]. - **North American Routes**: China's exports to the US decreased by 27% in September, with six consecutive months of negative growth since April. However, the transport demand was relatively stable this week, and the spot market booking prices rebounded from the low level. The Shanghai - US West and US East basic port market freight rates on October 17 increased by 31.9% and 16.4% respectively compared to the previous period [10]. - **Israel - Hamas Conflict**: There was a new conflict between Israel and Hamas. Israel is accelerating the resumption of full - scale military operations, and the Red Sea route is unlikely to resume navigation this year [10]. 3.3数据概览 (Data Overview) - **Container Shipping Spot Prices**: - The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index for European routes on October 20 was 1140.38, up 10.5% from October 13. - The index for US West routes on October 20 was 863.46, up 0.1% from October 13 [12]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Routes) Futures Quotes**: The trading data of EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, and EC2608 contracts on October 23, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change, are provided [6]. - **Shipping - related Data Charts**: Charts of Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index, container shipping European route futures main and sub - main contracts, European container ship capacity, global container ship order backlog, Shanghai - European basic port freight rate, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rate are provided [13][16][17][21]

行业 锌期货日报 日期 2025 年 10 月 24 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3075681 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾 | 表1：期货市场行情 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位：元/吨 | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变化 | | 沪锌 | 2511 | 22035 | 22300 | 22310 | 22015 | 325 | 1.48 | 35504 | -10907 | | 沪锌 | 2512 | 22030 | 22345 | 22345 | 22025 | 355 | 1.61 | 124740 | -7952 | | 沪锌 | 2601 | 22110 | 22370 | 22380 | 22050 | 345 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: October 24, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In October, the bond market entered a window period where risks were gradually cleared after negative factors materialized. The market stabilized but lacked a trigger for a counter - attack in the form of clear monetary easing. The Q3 GDP growth of 4.8% met expectations, with the domestic economic fundamentals slowing since the end of Q2. Although exports remained resilient, domestic demand was still weak, making policy stimulus necessary. The orientation of loose monetary and fiscal policies remained unchanged, but short - term monetary easing was unlikely. The bond market lacked direct positive stimuli and was disturbed by the stock - bond seesaw. It was necessary to wait patiently for a counter - attack opportunity, and pay attention to the possible hedging demand from Sino - US trade negotiations [10][11] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Data**: Provided trading data of treasury bond futures on October 23, including contract details such as TL2512, TL2603, etc., with information on pre - settlement price, opening price, closing price, etc. For example, TL2512 had a pre - settlement price of 115.600, a closing price of 115.210, a decline of 0.390, and a decline rate of 0.34% [6] - **Market Performance**: The stock - bond seesaw continued. In the afternoon, the A - share market rose, and treasury bond futures oscillated downward. The yields of major term interest - bearing treasury bonds in the inter - bank market showed short - term decline and long - term increase, with the medium - long end rising less than 1bp. By 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250016 was reported at 1.837%, up 0.95bp [7][8] - **Funding Market**: The funding situation was stable with a marginal tightening. There were 236 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, and the central bank injected 212.5 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 23.5 billion yuan. As the tax payment period approached, the inter - bank funding sentiment index rose slightly. The weighted overnight rate of inter - bank deposits fluctuated around 1.31, the 7 - day rate dropped 0.6bp to 1.4267%, and the medium - long - term funds were stable, with the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate remaining around 1.66% [9] 2. Industry News - **International News**: US President Trump said he expected to reach a good trade agreement with Chinese leaders during the APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting next week, but the meeting might be cancelled. The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded that head - of - state diplomacy played an irreplaceable strategic leading role in Sino - US relations, and there was no information to provide on the specific issue. On October 22, the US Senate failed to pass the Republican - proposed temporary appropriation bill, and the government "shutdown" stalemate continued. This was the 12th time the Senate had voted down the bill since the government "shutdown" [12] - **Domestic News**: PBOC Deputy Governor Xuan Changneng attended the Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable and other meetings, stating that trade frictions and geopolitical uncertainties dragged down global economic growth, and developing countries faced increased debt burdens and liquidity problems. China actively participated in debt restructuring. Three policy banks announced that nearly 300 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instruments had been invested, expected to drive over 4 trillion yuan in total project investment. Since October, more than 10 small and medium - sized banks had cut deposit rates, with a maximum reduction of 80 basis points [13][14] 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: Included information on the price differences between different terms and varieties of treasury bond futures' main contracts, as well as the trends of main contracts [15][16][19] - **Money Market**: Included the changes in the weighted inter - bank pledged repurchase rate, the SHIBOR term structure, and the SHIBOR trend [27][32] - **Derivatives Market**: Included the average curves of Shibor3M and FR007 interest rate swaps [36]