Jian Xin Qi Huo
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建信期货纸浆日报-20251023
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-10-23 02:43
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: October 23, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The pulp market has no significant fundamental changes, with a slight rebound boosted by the sector and mainly fluctuating in a wide range at a low level. The demand side of the pulp market has a gentle increase in volume, and the start of the traditional peak season is delayed [8]. Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - The previous settlement price of the pulp futures 01 contract was 5,154 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5,220 yuan/ton, a total increase of 1.28%. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 4,850 - 6,500 yuan/ton, with the price rising 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day's closing price. The quotation of Shandong Yinxing was 5,600 yuan/ton [7]. - Arauco of Chile announced the new October FOB prices for wood pulp: the softwood pulp Yinxing was at $680/ton, a decrease of $20/ton from the previous month; the unbleached pulp Jinxing was at $590/ton, unchanged from the previous month; the hardwood pulp Mingxing was at $540/ton, also unchanged from the previous month [8]. - In September, the European wood pulp inventory was 722,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3% and a year - on - year increase of 16.1%; the European wood pulp consumption was 813,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 16.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%. In September, China's total pulp imports were 2.95 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.3% and a year - on - year increase of 10.1%. As of October 16, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports increased by 1.45% month - on - month, and the overall shipping speed was moderate [8]. Operation Suggestions - No operation suggestions are provided in the report. Group 5: Industry News - Eldorado Brasil Celulose will conduct a full - shutdown maintenance at its Tres Lagoas factory in Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil, from October 20 to 31, 2025. The factory has an annual production capacity of approximately 1.8 million tons of bleached eucalyptus pulp, and 90% of its products are for export, with about half going to the Chinese market [9]. Group 6: Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including import softwood pulp spot prices in Shandong, pulp futures prices, pulp futures - spot price differences, softwood - hardwood price differences, inter - delivery spread, warehouse receipt volume, domestic main port pulp inventory, European main port wood pulp inventory, prices and spreads of coated paper and offset paper, prices and spreads of white cardboard and whiteboard paper, and the US dollar - RMB exchange rate [15][17][19][21][27][29]
建信期货沥青日报-20251023
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-10-23 02:42
Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Report Date: October 23, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Views - The price of asphalt futures increased with the rebound of oil prices, and the previous strategy of going long on asphalt and short on crude oil was gradually stopped for profit. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side position [6] - The overall rigid demand for asphalt is poor, the trading atmosphere in the spot market is light, the expected supply may decline, and the funds for small and medium - sized projects are still in a severe situation [6] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: BU2601 opened at 3172 yuan/ton, closed at 3249 yuan/ton, with a maximum of 3249 yuan/ton, a minimum of 3157 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 2.95%, and a trading volume of 26.95 million lots. BU2512 opened at 3198 yuan/ton, closed at 3268 yuan/ton, with a maximum of 3268 yuan/ton, a minimum of 3192 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 2.51%, and a trading volume of 5.05 million lots [6] - Spot Market: The spot prices of asphalt in the Northeast, North China, and Shandong regions decreased, while those in other regions remained relatively stable. The rigid demand for asphalt was poor, and the trading atmosphere was light [6] - Supply: Liaohe Petrochemical plans to increase production, but the reduction of Jinling Petrochemical in East China and the non - resumption of asphalt production plans of some local refineries in Shandong and Henan are expected to lead to a decline in the asphalt operating rate this week [6] - Demand: The rainfall in the northern region has decreased, providing some support for rigid demand. However, the funds for small and medium - sized projects are still in a severe situation, and speculative demand is also relatively low [6] - Operation Suggestion: The previous strategy of going long on asphalt and short on crude oil was gradually stopped for profit. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side position [6] 2. Industry News - South China Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70 A - grade asphalt was 3340 - 3550 yuan/ton, remaining stable. Although the supply of asphalt resources from Guangzhou Petrochemical and Maoming Petrochemical decreased, the social inventory of asphalt was still abundant, and some traders sold at low prices, making it difficult to push up the price [7] - East China Market: The mainstream intended price of 70 A - grade asphalt was 3410 - 3500 yuan/ton, remaining stable. The prices of futures and spot sources increased, and the price difference between social inventory and refinery truck transportation narrowed. However, the overall demand was average, and the procurement enthusiasm of industry players was weak, still putting pressure on the spot price [7] 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including South China asphalt spot price, Shandong asphalt basis, asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, asphalt cracking, asphalt social inventory, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [14][16][18]
纯碱、玻璃日报-20251023
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-10-23 02:42
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Date: October 23, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] - Researcher: Feng Zeren (Soda Ash and Glass) [4] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - Soda ash market is in a weak pattern with supply exceeding demand, and the contract shows signs of bottoming out, expected to fluctuate weakly [8] - Glass market is in a weak balance of supply and demand, and the disk may test the bottom again, but excessive short - selling is not advisable, and attention should be paid to potential positive factors from policies and production lines [9] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Soda Ash Market** - On October 22, the main futures contract SA601 of soda ash fluctuated and rebounded, with a closing price of 1,223 yuan/ton, a rise of 16 yuan/ton, and a daily decline of 924 lots [7] - Fundamentally, supply decreased, inventory increased slightly, and the overall weak pattern remained unchanged. Weekly production decreased by 30,300 tons to 740,500 tons, and enterprise inventory rose to 1.705 million tons [8] - The market supply - demand imbalance has not been effectively improved, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [8] - **Glass Market** - Fundamentally, the production of float glass remained stable, and the photovoltaic glass was in a weak balance. The overall glass supply was at a high level within the year, and the inventory was at a high level after the festival [9] - The real - estate market has not shown a stabilizing trend, and the demand for float glass may not continue to rise. The disk may test the bottom again, but excessive short - selling is not advisable [9] 2. Data Overview - The report provides data on the price trends of active contracts for soda ash and glass, as well as data on soda ash weekly production, enterprise inventory, central China heavy soda market price, and flat glass production [11][17][18] - Data sources include Wind and iFind, and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [12][16][20]
建信期货工业硅日报-20251023
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-10-23 02:42
工业硅日报 油) 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 硅)028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 研究员:冯泽仁(玻璃纯碱) 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03134307 行业 日期 2025 年 10 月 23 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油燃料 研究员:任俊弛(PTA/MEG) 研究员:彭浩洲(工业硅/多晶 研究员:彭婧霖(聚烯烃) 研究员:刘悠然(纸浆) 后市展望(仅供参考):工业硅企业主动减产意愿不足, ...
建信期货鸡蛋日报-20251023
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-10-23 02:41
行业 鸡蛋 日期 2025 年 10 月 23 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号:F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号:F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员:余兰兰 研究员:林贞磊 研究员:王海峰 研究员:洪辰亮 期货从业资格号:F3076808 研究员:刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1:行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...
贵金属日评-20251023
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-10-23 02:41
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The report suggests that factors such as Fed rate cuts, geopolitical risks, and the accelerated restructuring of the international trade and monetary system continue to provide hedging demand and liquidity premiums for precious metals. The current upward trend in precious metals may continue until 2026. Investors are advised to maintain a bullish stance, while short - hedgers can appropriately reduce their hedging ratios. However, short - term adjustment risks should be noted, and heavy - position chasing at current prices is not recommended [4][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook - **Intraday Market**: Uncertainties in Sino - US trade and the Russia - Ukraine conflict, along with adjustment risks from previous price surges, led to a significant drop in gold and silver prices overnight, followed by a notable rebound in the Asian session. It is necessary to observe whether London gold can stabilize at the $3950 - 4050 per ounce level. Key events to watch this week include the fifth round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations, China's September economic data, the progress of the US government shutdown, and the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee [4]. - **Domestic Precious Metals Market Data**: The Shanghai Gold Index closed at 954.55, down 4.18%; the Shanghai Silver Index closed at 11,415, down 3.41%; Gold T + D closed at 947.30, down 4.01%; Silver T + D closed at 11,377, down 3.25% [5]. - **Medium - term Market**: From late April to early August, London gold oscillated widely between $3100 - 3500 per ounce to digest high - valuation pressures. Since August, factors such as the Fed's potential rate cuts, the restructuring of the international trade and monetary system, and geopolitical risks have driven a new round of upward trends in precious metals. London gold soared to $4380 per ounce, and London silver reached a new record high of $54.47 per ounce. Although the upward trend is expected to continue, short - term adjustment risks should be noted [5]. 3.2 Precious Metals Market - Related Charts The report presents multiple charts, including those of Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold T + D, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets [7][9][11]. 3.3 Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - **US - Russia Relations**: The planned summit between US President Trump and Russian President Putin was postponed due to Russia's rejection of the immediate cease - fire proposal in Ukraine. Russia's conditions for a peace agreement with Ukraine conflicted with Trump's current plan [17]. - **EU - China Trade**: The EU Trade Commissioner invited Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao to visit Brussels to address China's tightened rare - earth export restrictions. China hopes the EU will urge the Netherlands to resolve the impasse around Nexperia. Discussions also covered the EU's anti - subsidy case against Chinese electric vehicles [18]. - **Japan's New Prime Minister's Stance**: Japan's new Prime Minister Takamori Sanae hopes the Bank of Japan's monetary policy can achieve a 2% inflation target in a sustainable manner, accompanied by wage growth [18]. - **Canada - US Steel and Aluminum Trade**: Canadian Prime Minister Carney was cautious about reports of a potential steel and aluminum trade agreement with the US, warning against over - interpretation [19].
建信期货棉花日报-20251023
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-10-23 02:41
Report Overview - Report Date: October 23, 2025 [2] - Industry: Cotton [1] - Research Analysts: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Zhengzhou cotton rebounded. The spot cotton price index of grade 328 was 14,772 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume of pure cotton yarn remained stable, with a slight recovery in downstream consumption due to the recent significant temperature drop in the southern regions of the Yangtze River. The downstream enterprises still adopted a "buy-as-you-go" approach, and the scale of new orders was limited. The operating rate of spinning mills increased slightly but was still lower than the same period in previous years. The price of the pure cotton cloth market was stable and weak, and the fabric mills maintained a slight loss. In the domestic market, the purchase price of machine-picked cottonseed in Xinjiang moved closer to the high price, and the high price did not continue to rise significantly. As of October 16, the national new cotton picking progress was 58.8%, 4.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year. In September, China imported 100,000 tons of cotton, a month-on-month increase of 30,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 20,000 tons. The terminal demand in the industrial downstream showed a slight recovery, but the characteristic of a weak peak season still persisted. Domestic consumption performed better than exports, and the retail sales of textile and clothing in September increased by 4.7% year-on-year. The hedging pressure above the peak season of new cotton listing and processing still needed to be digested, and the short-term trading center slowly moved up, trading time for space [7][8]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Zhengzhou cotton rebounded. The prices of CF2601, CF2605, and CF2609 contracts increased by 0.30%, 0.11%, and 0.15% respectively. The latest cotton price index of grade 328 was 14,772 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The purchase price of machine-picked cottonseed in Xinjiang was between 6.35 - 6.5 yuan/kg, and the theoretical cost of current purchase was mostly above 14,600 yuan (delivered basis). As of October 16, the national new cotton picking progress was 58.8%, 4.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year. In September, China imported 100,000 tons of cotton, a month-on-month increase of 30,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 20,000 tons. The terminal demand in the industrial downstream showed a slight recovery, and the retail sales of textile and clothing in September increased by 4.7% year-on-year [7][8]. 3.2 Industry News - As of October 21, 2025, a total of 928 cotton processing enterprises across the country processed cotton and carried out notarized inspections in accordance with the requirements of the cotton quality inspection system reform plan. The cumulative inspection volume was 978,600 tons, an increase of 93,100 tons from the previous day. Among them, the inspection volume in Xinjiang was 969,100 tons, an increase of 92,200 tons from the previous day; the inspection volume in the inland areas was 7,400 tons [9]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, and warehouse receipt volume, etc. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [16][17][19]
建信期货生猪日报-20251023
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-10-23 02:38
行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 10 月 23 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号:F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号:F0230741 研究员:洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号:F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员:林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员:余兰兰 研究员:王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员:刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源:涌益,建信期货研究中心 生猪行情: 期货方面,22 日生猪主力 2601 合约平开后探底回升窄幅震荡,尾盘收阴, 最高 12275 元/吨,最低 12135 元/吨,收盘报 122 ...
建信期货油脂日报-20251023
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-10-23 02:38
Group 1: General Information - Reported industry: Oil and fat [1] - Report date: October 23, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural product research team [4] Group 2: Researcher Information - Researcher Yu Lanlan, contact: 021 - 60635732, email: yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F0301101 [3] - Researcher Lin Zhenlei, contact: 021 - 60635740, email: linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3055047 [3] - Researcher Wang Haifeng, contact: 021 - 60635727, email: wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F0230741 [3] - Researcher Hong Chenliang, contact: 021 - 60635572, email: hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3076808 [3] - Researcher Liu Youran, contact: 021 - 60635570, email: liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F03094925 [3] Group 3: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market review: East China's third - grade rapeseed oil prices from October - November are OI2601 + 330, December - January are OI2601 + 270; first - grade rapeseed oil from October - November are OI2601 + 430, December - January are OI2601 + 370. East China's first - grade soybean oil basis prices: for first - grade soybean oil, October is Y2501 + 210, October - November is Y2501 + 220, December - January is Y2601 + 280, February - May is Y2501 + 150, March - May is Y2501 + 130, May - July is Y2501 + 10; for third - grade soybean oil, it's 01 + 170; for raw soybean oil, it's 01 + 50. Dongguan traders' palm oil quotes are stable, with 24 - degree palm oil at 01 - 70 [7] - Industry comments: China's three major oils continued to adjust. In the palm oil market, the Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) reported that Malaysia's palm oil production from October 1 - 20, 2025, increased by 10.77% month - on - month. Strong production and expected slowdown in Indian palm oil demand after Diwali dragged down the market. The domestic spot market was weak, with sufficient supply and little change in basis quotes. In the short term, there is a lack of drivers, and low crude oil prices also put pressure on the oil sector. Futures are expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend with further downward potential. Attention should be paid to the lower technical support levels [7] Group 4: Industry News - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOA) reported that Malaysia's palm oil production from October 1 - 20, 2025, increased by 10.77% month - on - month, with Peninsular Malaysia up 4.54%, Sabah up 21.99%, Sarawak up 16.69%, and East Malaysia up 20.45% [8] - UOB KayHian estimated that Malaysia's palm oil production from October 1 - 20 increased by 10% - 14% month - on - month, with Sabah up 20% - 24%, Sarawak up 18% - 22%, and Peninsular Malaysia up 3% - 7% [8] - Shipping surveyor SGS reported that Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 20 were 793,571 tons, a 41.8% increase from 559,829 tons in the same period of September. Exports to China were 84,400 tons, higher than the 46,300 tons in the previous month [8] Group 5: Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts including spot prices of East China's third - grade rapeseed oil, East China's fourth - grade soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil; basis changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil; P1 - 5, P5 - 9, P9 - 1 spreads; and exchange rates of US dollar to RMB and US dollar to Malaysian ringgit, with data sources from Wind and the research and development department of CCB Futures [10][12][15][23][28][29]
建信期货国债日报-20251023
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-10-23 02:37
行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 10 月 23 日 研究员:何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3008762 研究员:黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3051589 研究员:聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 | | | 表1:国债期货10月22日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 (%) | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2512 | 115.490 | 115.710 | 115.610 | 115.600 | 0.120 | 0.10 ...