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建信期货工业硅日报-20260108
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-08 01:38
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The industrial silicon futures price fluctuated widely and moved upward. The SI2605 contract price was 8980 yuan/ton, with a 1.07% increase. The spot price remained stable. The industrial silicon fundamentals are relatively neutral compared to stronger - performing varieties, with no policy - driven imagination space. The spot market transactions were dull in January, raw material prices were stable, and the supply was at a seasonal low, with an expected output of about 350,000 tons in January. After the second quarter, it will face the pressure of increased production during the wet season. The demand side lacks increments. The overall spot price is stable and has not opened up an upward space, with increasing resistance above 9000 yuan [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - The industrial silicon futures price showed a wide - range volatile upward trend. The SI2605 contract price was 8980 yuan/ton, up 1.07%, with a trading volume of 477,386 lots, an open interest of 244,734 lots, a net increase of 10,123 lots. The top twenty long positions had a net increase of 4,578 lots, and the short positions had a net increase of 6,857 lots. The spot prices in different regions remained stable, such as 9300 yuan/ton for Sichuan 553, 8900 yuan/ton for Yunnan 553, 9900 yuan/ton for Sichuan 421, 9550 yuan/ton for Xinjiang 421, and 9550 yuan/ton for Inner Mongolia 421 [4]. 3.2 Market News - On January 7th, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 10,799 lots, an increase of 112 lots from the previous trading day. In the fourth week of December, the industrial silicon inventory was 456,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.30% and a year - on - year increase of 24.08%. The weekly output was 81,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.68% and a year - on - year increase of 9.35% [6]. 3.3 Future Outlook - Recently, the commodity index rebounded strongly, and the risk appetite of long - position funds increased sharply. However, the industrial silicon fundamentals are relatively neutral compared to stronger - performing varieties, with no policy - driven imagination space. The spot market transactions were dull in January, raw material prices were stable, and the supply was at a seasonal low, with an expected output of about 350,000 tons in January. After the second quarter, it will face the pressure of increased production during the wet season. The demand side lacks increments. The organic silicon monomer operating rate in December was 72.85%, and the concentrated production cuts were not significantly realized, with the latest weekly operating rate maintained at 69.61%. The polysilicon output in December was 116,900 tons, and in the current situation, polysilicon can only see production cuts, not increments. Market sentiment has driven short - term upward price fluctuations, but the overall spot price is stable and has not opened up an upward space, with increasing resistance above 9000 yuan [5].
贵金属日评-20260108
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-08 01:36
行业 贵金属日评 日期 2026 年 01 月 08 日 宏观金融团队 研究员:何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3008762 研究员:黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3051589 研究员:聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情: 外媒报道称美国政府正在积极讨论获取格陵兰岛,而美联储理事米兰声称 2026 年美联储可大幅度降息,流动性溢价与地缘政治风险推动贵金属板块继续偏 强运行,隔夜伦敦白银收盘价再创新高,但伦敦黄金在 4500 美元/盎司附近持续 遭遇抛压,市场在 12 月非农就业数据公布前较为谨慎。我们认为 2025 年 12 月底 的回调已经充分释放贵金属内部积累的调整风险,总体看在国际政经格局重组、 美联储宽松货币政策、全球经济增长前景改善以及银铂对金饰替代需 ...
建信期货集运指数日报-20260108
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-08 01:34
Report Information - Report Name: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: January 8, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Research Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - The SCFIS index rebounded 3.1% to 1795.83 points this week. The freight rate in early January was maintained at around $2880, and the cargo collection was in good condition. There is still an upward expectation for the price increase in late January, and there may be some upward space for the February contract. However, the expectation of resuming navigation in the Red Sea after the Spring Festival may heat up, and attention should be paid to the short - selling opportunity of the April contract in the off - season and the positive spread arbitrage opportunity between the 02 and 04 contracts [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot market: The SCFIS index rose 3.1% to 1795.83 points this week. The freight rate in early January was around $2880, and the cargo collection was good. The late - January quotation is in the range of $2700 - 3100, and the Maersk's fourth - week opening price of $2800 is better than expected. There is still an upward expectation for the February contract, but attention should be paid to the short - selling opportunity of the April contract in the off - season and the 02 - 04 positive spread arbitrage opportunity [8] 2. Industry News - From December 22 to 26, 2025, the China Export Container Shipping Market showed a good trend, and the comprehensive index rose. The European economy was weak in 2025, with high geopolitical and energy security risks. The spot market booking price in the European and Mediterranean routes rose during the signing season. The North American employment market showed a slight recovery, and the freight rate also increased. Multiple shipping companies announced price hikes and PSS adjustments. Military operations in the Middle East continued, and there were uncertainties about Maersk's resumption of Red Sea - Suez Canal navigation [9][10] 3. Data Overview - **Container shipping spot prices**: The SCFIS European route index rose 3.1% to 1795.83 points from December 29, 2025, to January 5, 2026, while the US - West route index fell 3.9% to 1250.12 points [12] - **Container shipping index (European line) futures market**: Provided trading data for multiple contracts such as EC2602, EC2604, etc., including opening price, closing price, settlement price, etc. [6] - **Shipping - related data trend charts**: Included data on European container ship capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, etc. [18][20]
建信期货原油日报-20260108
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-08 01:31
行业 原油日报 日期 2026 年 1 月 8 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油沥青) 研究员:任俊弛(PTA、MEG) 研究员:彭浩洲(工业硅碳市场) 研究员:彭婧霖(聚烯烃) 研究员:刘悠然(纸浆) 研究员:冯泽仁(玻璃纯碱) 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1 ...
白糖日报-20260108
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-08 01:31
行业 白糖日报 日期 021-60635732 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号:F3076808 研究员:刘悠然 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员:林贞磊 研究员:余兰兰 研究员:洪辰亮 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 2026 年 1 月 8 日 研究员:王海峰 021-60635728 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0230741 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0301101 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1:期货行情 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 收盘价(元/吨 美分/磅) | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 持仓量( ...
建信期货股指日评-20260108
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-08 01:31
Group 1: Report Overview - Report type: Stock index daily review [1] - Date: January 8, 2026 [2] - Researchers: Nie Jiayi, He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin [3] Group 2: Market Review and Outlook Market Review - On January 7, the Wind All A index rose with increased trading volume, opening with an upward trend, experiencing a significant decline in the afternoon and then rebounding, closing up 0.19%. Over 3000 stocks in the market fell, and the Shanghai Composite Index achieved 14 consecutive positive daily lines, approaching 4100 points. The CSI 300 and SSE 50 closed down 0.29% and 0.43% respectively, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 closed up 0.78% and 0.53% respectively. In the futures market, the main contracts of IF, IH, and IM closed down 0.52%, 0.57%, and 0.03% respectively, and the IC main contract closed up 0.21%, performing weaker than the spot market (calculated by closing price) [6] Market Outlook - Externally, on January 6, the US Supreme Court announced that it will make a ruling on the tariff issue this Friday. Domestically, the December PMI rose above the boom - bust line, signaling economic improvement. Meanwhile, the national subsidy policy for 2026 has been issued, with the fiscal side taking proactive measures. The overall market sentiment remains optimistic. In terms of capital, after the holiday, the total trading volume of the two markets increased significantly, and the margin trading funds continued to reach new highs, reaching 2.58 trillion yuan. Overall, as the expectation of domestic economic improvement strengthens, the slow - bull pattern of the A - share market is gradually stabilizing. Maintaining a long - term bullish mindset, the spring rally may be advanced. The support at 4000 points of the Shanghai Composite Index is strong, but it still needs to accumulate strength to break through 4100 points. It is recommended to take a low - buying strategy [7] Group 3: Data Overview - The report presents data on domestic major index performance, market style performance, industry sector performance (Shenwan primary index), Wind All A trading volume, stock index spot trading volume, stock index futures trading volume, stock index futures positions, main contract basis trends, inter - period spread trends, main ETF fund share statistics, and main ETF trading volume statistics, all sourced from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [8][13][17][22] Group 4: Industry News - US President Trump stated that the US will obtain 50 million barrels of previously sanctioned oil from Venezuela, which will be sold by the US on behalf of Venezuela. Some of this crude oil was originally likely to be sold directly to China. Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning said that Venezuela is a sovereign country with full and permanent sovereignty over its natural resources and economic activities. The cooperation between China and Venezuela is between two sovereign countries, protected by international law and relevant laws, and China's legitimate rights and interests in Venezuela must be protected [27]
建信期货生猪日报-20260108
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-08 01:31
Report Information - Report Name: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: January 8, 2026 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - On the supply side, pig slaughter is expected to increase slightly until the first half of next year. The enthusiasm for second - round fattening has increased, and the utilization rate of second - round fattening pens has slightly risen. In January, the monthly slaughter of breeding enterprises may continue to increase slightly, and the current slaughter rhythm of the breeding side is controllable. On the demand side, second - round fattening has increased, and there is a rolling restocking demand. Post - holiday consumption is slowly recovering, and there is still room for cured meat and sausage demand. Terminal consumer consumption remains high, but the orders of slaughtering enterprises are average after the festival. The operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises are slowly increasing after the festival. Overall, on the spot market, post - holiday consumption is slowly recovering, the overall volume is still high, supply is relatively loose, and the spot price fluctuates. In the futures market, pig supply is expected to maintain a slight increase. The demand elasticity before the Spring Festival is strong, and the pressure of second - round fattening is still higher than the same period last year, which continues to put pressure on the market, but the previous epidemic in the north has continued to boost the 03 contract. Currently, the market feedback shows that the epidemic has not continued to spread and remains sporadically seasonal. [9] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 7th, the main 2603 contract of live pigs opened slightly higher, then rose and fell back, fluctuating downward, and closed with a negative line. The highest price was 11,925 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,740 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,785 yuan/ton, up 0.60% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 8,459 lots to 363,111 lots. [8] - **Spot Market**: On the 7th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 12.55 yuan/kg, up 0.07 yuan/kg from the previous day. [8] - **Supply - demand Analysis**: As mentioned in the core view, the supply is expected to increase slightly, and demand is slowly recovering. On January 7, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 191,100 heads, an increase of 1,300 heads from the previous day, a decrease of 9,700 heads week - on - week, and an increase of 9,000 heads month - on - month. [9] 2. Industry News - According to Yongyi Information, in the week of January 4, the overall slaughter proportion of small - weight pigs under 90 kg was 5.44%, a decrease of 0.07% from the previous week. Due to the seasonal sporadic occurrence of the epidemic, the slaughter volume of small - weight pigs in many places has decreased compared with the previous period, and currently, the market feedback shows that the epidemic has not continued to spread. [10][11] 3. Data Overview - **15kg Piglet Price**: In the week of January 4, the average market sales price of 15kg piglets was 319 yuan/head, an increase of 12 yuan/head from the previous week. [18] - **Breeding Profit**: As of January 4, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was - 28.3 yuan/head, an increase of 96 yuan/head week - on - week; the average profit per pig purchased as a piglet was - 160.8 yuan/head, an increase of 95 yuan/head week - on - week. [18] - **Average Slaughter Weight**: As of the week of January 4, the average slaughter weight of live pigs was 128.66kg, a decrease of 1.04kg from the previous week (a week - on - week decrease of 0.80%), a decrease of 1.16kg from the previous month (a month - on - month decrease of 0.89%), and an increase of 2.6kg from the same period last year (a year - on - year increase of 2.06%). [18]
建信期货聚烯烃日报-20260108
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-08 01:31
1. Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure of polyolefin has increased month - on - month due to the decline in maintenance losses during the new capacity window period, while the demand side is restricted by the seasonal off - season and shows obvious weakness. At the beginning of the year, the capital sentiment was high, but the overseas geopolitical conflict could not change the pattern of crude oil surplus. The supply of polyolefin has recovered and the demand has entered the inventory digestion cycle in the off - season, so the upside space is limited [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - The L2605 contract of linear low - density polyethylene (LLDPE) opened higher, fluctuated during the session, and closed up at 6,642 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton (1.84%), with a trading volume of 566,000 lots and a decrease of 2,207 lots in positions to 505,678 lots. The PP2605 contract of polypropylene closed at 6,486 yuan/ton, up 102 yuan, a gain of 1.60%, with a decrease of 1,191 lots in positions to 520,400 lots [5][6] 3.2 Industry News - On January 7, 2026, the inventory level of major producers was 610,000 tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons or 7.58% from the previous working day, compared with 575,000 tons in the same period last year. - Most PE market prices rose. The linear futures opened higher and fluctuated. The market trading atmosphere was average. With the increase of some ex - factory prices, traders raised their prices accordingly, and downstream buyers made cautious purchases. The LLDPE prices in the North China, East China, and South China regions were in the ranges of 6,430 - 6,600 yuan/ton, 6,450 - 6,800 yuan/ton, and 6,600 - 6,850 yuan/ton respectively. - The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily referred to as 5,770 - 5,820 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous working day. The overall shipment of production enterprises was smooth, the propylene offers were adjusted steadily, and there were still cases of premium in the actual order auctions of some enterprises. The downstream factories maintained their purchasing enthusiasm, and the overall market trading atmosphere was good. - The PP market showed an obvious upward trend, and the price center of some markets increased by 50 - 70 yuan/ton. The offers of traders followed the increase significantly, and the market center increased. The downstream factories made cautious purchases and were still resistant to high - priced goods, resulting in poor market transactions. The regional prices were as follows: the mainstream prices of drawn PP in the North China, East China, and South China regions were 6,130 - 6,250 yuan/ton, 6,230 - 6,400 yuan/ton, and 6,150 - 6,450 yuan/ton respectively [7] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple figures including L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate, and the data sources are mainly Wind and Zhuochuang Information [9][12][17]
纯碱、玻璃日报-20260108
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-08 01:31
行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2026 年 1 月 8 日 油) 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 硅)028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 021-60635727 期货从业资格号:F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油燃料 研究员:任俊弛(PTA、MEG) 研究员:彭浩洲(尿素、工业 研究员:彭婧霖(聚烯烃) 研究员:刘悠然(纸浆) 研究员:冯泽仁(玻璃、纯碱) 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 ...
建信期货多晶硅日报-20260108
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-08 01:26
多晶硅日报 油) 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 硅)028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 研究员:冯泽仁(玻璃纯碱) 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 行业 日期 2026 年 01 月 08 日 能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油燃料 研究员:任俊弛(PTA/MEG) 研究员:彭浩洲(工业硅/多晶 研究员:彭婧霖(聚烯烃) 研究员:刘悠然(纸浆) 期货从业资格号:F03134307 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 风险因素:收储产能超 ...