Report Overview - Report Date: August 14, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The USDA's August supply - demand balance report is unexpectedly bullish for US soybeans. With a reasonable and stable area estimate, the pressure on the US soybean supply - demand balance sheet will be significantly reduced. The potential for further increases in yield is limited, and the negative impact of weather has mostly been digested. Although there is still room for a decline in US soybean export demand, the extent is expected to be small. It is estimated that the low point of CBOT soybeans may have been reached, and the future trend will be a slight upward - trending oscillation. [6] - Domestic soybean meal prices rose following the foreign market. There are multiple bullish factors in the near term. The anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed has restricted imports, and the high tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal and oil is beneficial for soybean meal. The 23% tariff on US soybean imports may last until early November, and China will continue to purchase Brazilian soybeans. However, Brazilian soybeans cannot fully replace US soybeans in quantity, and the FOB price is rising, so the cost of imported soybeans is likely to increase. In the medium term, soybean meal is expected to remain bullish. [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: - For the soybean meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3074, the opening price was 3110, the highest price was 3190, the lowest price was 3090, the closing price was 3163, with an increase of 89 and a rise rate of 2.90%. The trading volume was 1,964,008, the open interest was 1,935,807, and the change in open interest was 178,676. - For the soybean meal 2509 contract, the previous settlement price was 3017, the opening price was 3055, the highest price was 3131, the lowest price was 3038, the closing price was 3106, with an increase of 89 and a rise rate of 2.95%. The trading volume was 589,795, the open interest was 644,227, and the change in open interest was - 78,924. - For the soybean meal 2511 contract, the previous settlement price was 3051, the opening price was 3102, the highest price was 3166, the lowest price was 3071, the closing price was 3138, with an increase of 87 and a rise rate of 2.85%. The trading volume was 189,770, the open interest was 615,306, and the change in open interest was - 14,046. - The US soybean futures contract in the foreign market was strong, with the main contract at 1035 cents. [6] - **Operation Suggestions**: Consider the medium - term upward trend of soybean meal and the relatively stable situation of US soybeans, but no specific operation suggestions are provided. 3.2 Industry News - The USDA's August report shows that for the 2025/26 US soybean season, the estimated harvested area is 80.1 million acres (market expectation: 82.561 million acres), the estimated yield per acre is 53.6 bushels (market expectation: 52.9 bushels), the estimated production is 4.292 billion bushels (market expectation: 4.365 billion bushels), and the estimated ending inventory is 290 million bushels (July estimate: 310 million bushels, market expectation: 349 million bushels). [6][14] - As of August 1, based on reports from US farmers participating in the crop subsidy program, the unplanted area of US soybeans was 1.199 million acres, corn was 1.818 million acres, and wheat was 0.277 million acres. The sown area (including failed sowing) of soybeans was 79.761 million acres, corn was 96.524 million acres, and wheat was 48.671 million acres. [14] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple charts, including soybean meal ex - factory price, basis of the 09 contract, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, USD - CNY central parity rate, and USD - Brazilian real exchange rate, but no specific data analysis is provided. [10][11][19]

Report Information - Report Name: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: August 14, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Core View - The short - term bullish sentiment dominates again, and SHFE zinc continues to rise without fundamental support. Investors are advised to be cautious about chasing high prices [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Futures market: For SHFE zinc 2508, the opening price was 22,460 yuan/ton, the closing price was 22,560 yuan/ton, with a rise of 75 yuan and a gain of 0.33%. The position was 4,550, a decrease of 485. For SHFE zinc 2509, the opening price was 22,485 yuan/ton, the closing price was 22,590 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan or 0.38%. The position was 93,386, a decrease of 1,509. For SHFE zinc 2510, the opening price was 22,490 yuan/ton, the closing price was 22,610 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan or 0.40%. The position was 77,158, an increase of 4,219 [7]. - Market influence factors: The US July CPI data was released, with the year - on - year growth rate slightly lower than expected. The inflation data strengthened the expectation of an interest rate cut in September. SHFE zinc reached a high of 22,775 yuan/ton at night, but the intraday gain declined. The main contract 2509 closed at 22,600 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan or 0.24%, with reduced volume and positions, and funds flowing out. The positions migrated to far - month contracts. The top 20 positions in total held more long and short positions, and the net short positions increased by 491 lots [7]. - Fundamentals: In August, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee remained stable at 3,900 yuan/metal ton, and the imported zinc concentrate increased by 3.5 dollars/dry ton to 82.25 dollars/dry ton. The core contradiction of abundant zinc concentrate and zinc ingots in the market was more prominent during the off - season of demand. The inventory accumulation trend was confirmed, and the social inventory continued to increase at the beginning of the week, reaching 119,000 tons. LME zinc inventory continued to decrease to below 80,000 tons, and the 0 - 3 spread was C4.76. The problem of low inventory and high cancellation ratio still existed. The market was strong overseas and weak domestically, and the low price ratio was difficult to improve. The import window remained closed [7]. - Spot market: The increase in the futures price put pressure on the purchasing sentiment, and the premium continued to decline. The premium in Shanghai market for contract 09 was at a discount of 20 yuan/ton, the premium in Tianjin market compared to Shanghai was at a discount of 10 yuan/ton, and the premium in Guangdong market for contract 09 was at a discount of 75 yuan/ton, and at a discount of 20 yuan/ton compared to Shanghai. The price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong remained the same [7]. 2. Industry News - On August 13, 2025, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated between 22,585 - 22,665 yuan/ton, and Shuangyan zinc was traded between 22,695 - 22,785 yuan/ton. The mainstream transaction price of 1 zinc was between 22,515 - 22,595 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market quoted a premium of 10 - 20 yuan/ton to the SMM average price, and there were few quotes against the futures price. In the second trading session, the common domestic brands were quoted at a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract, Honglu - v was at a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract, Huize was at a premium of 50 - 60 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract, and the high - end brand Shuangyan was at a premium of 90 - 100 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract [8]. - In the Ningbo market, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was around 22,565 - 22,635 yuan/ton. The common brands in Ningbo were quoted at a discount of 45 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract and at a premium of 10 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot price. In the first period, Yongchang was quoted at a discount of 40 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract, Anning was at a discount of 30 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract, and Qilin was at a premium of 10 - 20 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract for delivery. In the second period, Yongchang's quote was further reduced to around - 50 yuan/ton, and the quotes of other traders remained the same as the previous period [8]. - In the Tianjin market, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc ingots was between 22,550 - 22,650 yuan/ton, and Zijin zinc was traded between 22,590 - 22,670 yuan/ton. The transaction price of 1 zinc ingots was around 22,490 - 22,570 yuan/ton, and Huludao zinc was quoted at 23,160 yuan/ton. The common 0 zinc was quoted at a discount of 30 - 50 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract, and Zijin zinc was quoted at a discount of 10 - 20 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract. The premium in Tianjin market compared to Shanghai was at a discount of about 10 yuan/ton [8][9]. - In the Guangdong market, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was between 22,500 - 22,630 yuan/ton. The mainstream brands were quoted at a discount of 75 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract and at a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot price. In the first period, the holders of goods quoted a discount of 105 - 55 yuan/ton for Qilin, Mengzi, Danxia, Anning, and Lanxin zinc. In the second period, Qilin, Mengzi, Feilong, Anning, and Lanxin zinc were still at a discount of 105 - 55 yuan/ton [9]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides data on the weekly inventory of SMM's seven - region zinc ingots, LME zinc inventory, the price trends of zinc in two markets, and the SHFE monthly spread, with data sources including Wind, SMM, and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [13][14]

1. Report Information - Report Title: Asphalt Daily Report - Report Date: August 14, 2025 - Reported Industry: Asphalt 2. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 3. Core View - The supply - demand situation of asphalt has deteriorated, and a unilateral short - selling approach is recommended [6] 4. Summary by Section 4.1. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Futures Market: For BU2510, the opening price was 3491 yuan/ton, closing at 3503 yuan/ton, with a high of 3504 yuan/ton, a low of 3480 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.03%, and a trading volume of 12.32 million lots. For BU2511, the opening price was 3444 yuan/ton, closing at 3460 yuan/ton, with a high of 3460 yuan/ton, a low of 3438 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.06%, and a trading volume of 2.87 million lots [6] - Spot Market: The asphalt spot price in the North China market increased, while those in the East and South China markets decreased, and other regions remained stable. Multiple refineries plan to resume asphalt production, leading to a significant increase in the average operating load rate of asphalt plants. However, events like the World Games and military parades will limit project construction in some areas, and the short - term improvement in rigid demand for asphalt remains limited [6] 4.2. Industry News - Shandong Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3520 - 3870 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous working day. International oil prices and asphalt futures continued to trade in a low - level range, and the demand in the spot market did not improve, with the market sentiment being cautious and wait - and - see. Some refineries lowered their asphalt prices, but the mainstream transaction range remained stable [7] - South China Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3520 - 3550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. The shipping price in Jieyang decreased by 30 yuan/ton, reducing the storage cost of Jieyang's shipped asphalt in Foshan. Additionally, the simultaneous quotation and sales of Jingbo Hainan's shipping orders and warehouse stocks dampened market sentiment, causing some traders to lower their bulk sales prices and driving down the market price in South China [7] 4.3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including Shandong asphalt spot price, Shandong asphalt basis, asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, asphalt cracking spread, asphalt social inventory, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [14][16][18][22]

Report Information - Report Date: August 14, 2025 [2] - Industry: Oils and Fats [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yulanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Due to the policy of increasing customs duty deposit on Canadian rapeseed to 75.8% and imposing 100% tariff on rapeseed oil and oil cake from Canada since March 20, 2025, the supply of domestic rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal is expected to decrease significantly, and the logic of buying on dips continues until the supply shortage pattern is significantly repaired [6] - For soybean oil, due to the biodiesel policies in the US and Brazil, the possible reduction of soybean imports in the fourth quarter, and the recovery of domestic demand, the long - term outlook is positive [6] - Palm oil is boosted by the increase in exports and continues to strengthen [6] - The three major domestic oils have little room for significant short - term decline, with a bullish view, and it is recommended to hold far - month basis [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Quotes and Operation Suggestions - Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 10, 2025 were 453,230 tons, a 23.7% increase compared to 366,482 tons from July 1 - 10 [7] - On August 12, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce announced the preliminary ruling of the anti - dumping investigation on imported rapeseed from Canada. It was initially determined that there was dumping, and from August 14, 2025, importers should provide corresponding margin according to the determined margin ratio [7] 2. Data Overview - Various price and basis data are presented, including the basis price of Dongguan third - grade and first - grade rapeseed oil, the basis price of soybean oil in the East China market, and the basis price of 24 - degree palm oil in the East and South China markets [6] - Multiple charts show the spot prices and basis changes of rapeseed oil, soybean oil, and palm oil, as well as price spreads and exchange rates [9][17][19]

Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: August 14, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Long - term, the Politburo meeting in July maintained the stance of "moderate easing" for monetary policy, indicating that the easing orientation remains unchanged. With high tariff uncertainties and potential risks of post - export - rush decline, the bull - market foundation for bonds remains. However, in the short term, the joint statement on tariff exemption extension between China and the US reduces uncertainties, cools down risk - aversion sentiment, and the strength of commodities and the stock market put pressure on the bond market, especially long - term bonds. Considering the supportive factors for the capital market in August, short - term bonds (2 - year and 5 - year) may be more resilient, and a strategy of going long on short - term and short on long - term bonds is recommended [11][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Condition**: The stock market reached a new high, but treasury bond futures fluctuated and recovered, possibly boosted by rumors of a 6 - month buy - back repurchase and a potential reduction in the operating rate [8]. - **Cash Bond Yields**: Yields of major term interest rate cash bonds in the inter - bank market declined across the board, with long - term yields dropping by about 1bp. By 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 was reported at 1.72%, down 0.75bp [9]. - **Funding Market**: The central bank continued net withdrawals, but inter - bank funds remained loose. There were 138.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities, and the central bank conducted 118.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 20 billion yuan. The inter - bank funding sentiment index loosened, short - term funding rates changed slightly, and medium - and long - term funds were stable [10]. - **Conclusion**: Long - term, the bull - market foundation for bonds remains, but short - term, long - term bonds are under pressure. Short - term bonds may be more resilient, and a "long short - term, short long - term" strategy is recommended [11][12]. 2. Industry News - **China - US Relations**: The US and China issued a joint statement. The US promised to continue adjusting tariffs on Chinese goods, and both sides suspended relevant tariff and non - tariff counter - measures for 90 days. China also continued to suspend relevant measures on the unreliable entity list [13]. - **Domestic Policies**: Three departments jointly issued a plan for fiscal subsidies on personal consumption loans, and nine departments issued a plan for fiscal subsidies on loans to service - industry business entities [13]. - **US News**: Trump urged the Fed to cut interest rates, threatened to sue Fed Chairman Powell, and planned to nominate E.J. Anthony as the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. US Treasury Secretary suggested a 50 - basis - point rate cut in September. US July CPI and core CPI data were released, and the market expected a high probability of a rate cut in September. The US national debt exceeded $37 trillion [14]. 3. Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Information on trading data of treasury bond futures contracts on August 13, including prices, trading volumes, and open interests, is provided. Also, there are data on cross - period spreads, cross - variety spreads, and price trends of the main contracts [6]. - **Money Market**: Data on SHIBOR term structure changes, SHIBOR trends, inter - bank pledged repurchase weighted interest rate changes, and silver - deposit inter - bank pledged repurchase rate changes are presented [29][33]. - **Derivatives Market**: Information on Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curves and FR007 interest rate swap fixing curves is given [35].

Group 1: Report Information - Industry: Cotton [1] - Date: August 14, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Zhengzhou cotton rose on heavy volume boosted by the external market. The latest cotton price index for grade 328 was 15,188 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The basis of Xinjiang Kashgar lint in 2024/25 was in the range of CF09+1050 - 1200, and most quotes were above CF09+1200. The sales basis of 2024/25 Northern Xinjiang machine-picked cotton was mostly above CF09+1450 [7] - The pure cotton yarn market improved slightly as the peak season approached, with fewer low-price resources and a slightly higher trading center. The overall demand for cotton grey cloth did not see a large release, only a slight improvement in some areas compared to July. Factories were actively clearing inventories, and the growth rate of grey cloth decreased. Sampling increased, but most actual orders were not placed [7] - In July, the US CPI rose 2.7% year-on-year, lower than expected, increasing the expectation of a Fed rate cut in September and causing the US dollar index to decline. The USDA August supply and demand report showed that the estimated sown area of US cotton in 2025/26 was reduced to 9.28 million acres, a decrease of 8.1% from the June report. The estimated harvested area was 7.36 million acres, and the abandonment rate increased from 14.4% to 20.7%. The domestic new cotton output was expected to increase steadily, bringing phased pressure. The downstream market improved marginally, with an increase in sampling orders for grey cloth and better yarn sales after the cotton price stabilized. Today, boosted by the external market, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton rose with increased positions. Attention should be paid to the performance at the previous high pressure level [8] Group 3: Industry News - The August USDA monthly supply and demand report significantly reduced the sown area of US cotton by 17%, resulting in a 300,000-ton reduction in US cotton output in 2025/26 to 2.88 million tons, a 110,000-ton reduction in exports to 2.61 million tons, and a 220,000-ton reduction in ending stocks to 780,000 tons. The USDA also increased China's cotton output in 2025/26 by 110,000 tons to 6.86 million tons and consumption by 220,000 tons to 8.16 million tons. Global cotton output decreased by 390,000 tons to 25.39 million tons, and consumption decreased by 30,000 tons to 25.69 million tons [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report includes various data charts such as China's cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, warehouse receipt volume, US dollar to RMB exchange rate, and US dollar to Indian rupee exchange rate [18][19][20]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance and Outlook - The price of the polysilicon main contract continued to fluctuate at a high level. The closing price of PS2509 was 51,290 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.11%. The trading volume was 395,645 lots, and the open interest was 132,463 lots, with a net decrease of 3,592 lots [4]. - Recently, commodities as a whole are in a correction phase after a sharp rise, and the supply - demand contradiction of polysilicon itself has not intensified. Since the end of June, the fundamentals have not been the main driving factor but have restricted the price increase. On the supply side, the polysilicon production schedule in August increased significantly to 125,000 tons, which can meet the downstream demand of 56.82GW. On the demand side, the monthly output of silicon wafers and cells dropped to about 52GW. In fact, the recent price increase has stimulated the production increase from silicon materials to cells, and the overall supply - demand remains in a loose pattern. The increase in downstream active inventory replenishment has not intensified the supply - demand contradiction. Currently, the average price of spot N - grade polysilicon is stable at 47,200 yuan/ton. The price increase of silicon materials has not been transmitted to components and the terminal. The futures and spot prices are rigidly supported by the policy side and generally maintain a wide - range fluctuating operation [4]. 2. Market News - On August 13, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 5,150 lots, a net increase of 210 lots compared with the previous trading day [5]. - From January to June, the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity was 212.21GW, a year - on - year increase of 107.07%; the domestic installed capacity in June was only 14GW [5]. - According to customs data, in June 2025, China exported about 21.7GW of photovoltaic modules, a month - on - month decrease of 3% and a 2% decrease compared with 22.1GW in June 2024. From January to June, the cumulative export of photovoltaic modules was about 127.3GW, a 3% decrease compared with the same period last year [5].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Type: Crude Oil Daily Report [1] - Date: August 14, 2025 [2] Group 2: Research Team - Energy and Chemical Research Team Members: Li Jie (Crude Oil and Asphalt), Ren Junchi (PTA, MEG), Peng Haozhou (Industrial Silicon and Carbon Market), Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), Liu Youran (Pulp), Feng Zeren (Glass and Soda Ash) [4] Group 3: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: WTI's opening price was $64.00, closing at $63.08, with a high of $64.34, a low of $63.06, a decline of 1.38%, and a trading volume of 26.96 million hands; Brent's opening price was $66.8, closing at $66.11, with a high of $67.06, a low of $65.98, a decline of 0.78%, and a trading volume of 22.81 million hands; SC's opening price was 491.7 yuan/barrel, closing at 489.5 yuan/barrel, with a high of 493.6 yuan/barrel, a low of 486.7 yuan/barrel, a decline of 0.97%, and a trading volume of 7.75 million hands [6] - **Inventory Data**: As of the week of August, US crude oil inventories increased by 1.519 million barrels week - on - week, exceeding market expectations, while gasoline inventories decreased [6] - **Market Analysis**: US and Russian leaders are about to have direct talks. The US hopes to pressure Russia - Ukraine to cease fire through sanctions. Russian crude oil has a relatively complete export channel, so the impact of sanctions is still short - term. US gasoline consumption during the peak season this year is lower than expected, and refined oil consumption is not optimistic. If the US finally imposes secondary tariffs on Russian oil, it may be an opportunity to enter short positions [7] Group 4: Industry News - **IEA Monthly Report**: The forecast for total global oil supply in 2025 was raised from 105.1 million barrels per day to 105.5 million barrels per day, and the forecast for 2026 was raised from 106.4 million barrels per day to 107.4 million barrels per day. The forecast for global oil demand growth in 2025 was lowered from 704,000 barrels per day to 685,000 barrels per day, and the forecast for 2026 was lowered from 722,000 barrels per day to 699,000 barrels per day [8] Group 5: Data Overview - **Data Sources**: Bloomberg, wind, CFTC, EIA, and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [11][12][14] - **Data Charts**: Include global high - frequency crude oil inventories, WTI and Brent fund positions, spot prices of WTI, Oman, and Dtd Brent, US crude oil production growth rate, and EIA crude oil inventories [13][15][19]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold's volatility is rising, while its medium - term upward trend remains intact. London gold may trade in a wide range between $3,120 - $3,500 per ounce before rising again. Investors are advised to maintain a long - term view and participate in trading with a medium - to - low position [4]. - The restructuring of the international trade and monetary system and the demand for reserve diversification will support the long - term bull market in gold. Trump's reforms leading to economic weakness and central bank interest rate cut expectations will support the medium - term bull market. However, high price and P/E ratio mean increased volatility. In the third quarter, attention should be paid to the impact of US economic growth and inflation on Fed policy. It is expected that London gold will continue to trade in a range in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 贵金属行情及展望 3.1.1 Intraday Market - Due to Trump's threat to sue Fed Chairman Powell and US July CPI being lower than expected, the Fed's interest rate cut expectation cooled, pushing the US dollar index down to around 98 and London gold rebounding above $3,350 per ounce. The strong rise of the Chinese stock market made silver with higher industrial attributes relatively stronger. The US government's downplaying of the Russia - US summit reduced the pressure on the precious metal market from the cooling of the Russia - Ukraine conflict. Trump's new policies boosted gold's safe - haven demand. London gold may trade in a wide range and then rise again. Investors are advised to maintain a long - term view and participate in trading with a medium - to - low position [4]. 3.1.2 Medium - term Market - Since late April, London gold has been trading in a wide range between $3,100 - $3,500 per ounce. The cooling of international trade and the US fiscal expansion bill weakened gold's safe - haven and allocation demand, but Trump's new policy uncertainty, geopolitical risks, Fed new governor nomination, and deteriorating US job market increased the Fed's interest rate cut expectation. In June, speculative funds flowed into the silver and platinum markets, and in July, silver prices fluctuated greatly due to anti - involution policy expectations. The London gold - silver ratio rebounded slightly after falling to 86. It is judged that the long - term bull market of gold will be supported by the restructuring of the international trade and monetary system, and the medium - term bull market will be supported by Trump's reforms and interest rate cut expectations. However, high prices also mean increased volatility. In the short term, London gold is expected to continue trading in a range. Investors are advised to maintain a long - term view, and short - term investors can consider "long gold, short silver" arbitrage opportunities [5]. 3.2 贵金属市场相关图表 - The report provides six charts including Shanghai gold and silver futures indexes, London gold and silver spot prices, Shanghai futures index basis against Shanghai gold TD, gold and silver ETF holdings, gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets [7]. 3.3 主要宏观事件/数据 - The US Treasury Secretary said that US trade officials will meet with Chinese officials in the next two to three months. There are still several major trade agreements to be completed, but India is being difficult in negotiations. If a lower - court case goes to the Supreme Court, it will be difficult for the court to rule against the Trump administration [8]. - US July inflation was moderate, increasing investors' bets on a September Fed interest rate cut. July CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month and 2.7% year - on - year (lower than expected). Core CPI rose 0.3% month - on - month (the largest increase since January) and 3.1% year - on - year (higher than June) [8]. - Kansas City Fed President Schmid said that the limited impact of tariffs on inflation should be seen as a sign of proper monetary policy calibration, not an opportunity for interest rate cuts. Trump is considering suing Fed Chairman Powell for mismanagement of the Fed's renovation project [9]. - The White House downplayed expectations of a quick Russia - Ukraine cease - fire agreement from the Trump - Putin summit. European leaders, Ukrainian President Zelensky, Trump, and US Vice - President Vance will participate in a high - level video conference. Putin informed North Korean leader Kim Jong - un about the upcoming meeting with Trump [9].

行业 锌期货日报 日期 2025 年 8 月 13 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3075681 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 有色金属研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余菲菲 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾 | 表1：期货市场行情 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位：元/吨 | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变化 | | 沪锌 | 2508 | 22460 | 22560 | 22620 | 22450 | 75 | 0.33 | 4550 | -485 | | 沪锌 | 2509 | 224 ...