Jian Xin Qi Huo
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建信期货工业硅日报-20260106
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-06 02:18
1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamental drivers of the industrial silicon market are not obvious. The futures price is under pressure after failing to break through 9000 yuan/ton, and the market is in a contango oscillation. In January, the spot market is dull, with supply at a seasonal low, facing increasing production pressure in the wet season after the second quarter. The monthly production in the first quarter remains around 350,000 tons. On the demand side, the monthly operating rate of silicone monomers is 72.85%, and the concentrated production cut has not been significantly realized. The polysilicon production in December decreased slightly month - on - month, and the demand is hard to increase [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance and Price - The industrial silicon futures price is under pressure and declined. The SI2605 contract price is 8730 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.24%. The trading volume is 271,132 lots, and the open interest is 216,220 lots, with a net increase of 13,298 lots. The top twenty long positions increased by 2,597 lots, and the short positions increased by 11,095 lots [4]. - The spot prices are stable. The Sichuan 553 grade is 9300 yuan/ton, the Yunnan 553 grade is 8950 yuan/ton, the Sichuan 421 grade is 9900 yuan/ton, the Xinjiang 421 grade is 9550 yuan/ton, and the Inner Mongolia 421 grade is 9550 yuan/ton [4]. 3.2 Market News - On January 5th, the industrial silicon warehouse receipt volume of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 10,231 lots, unchanged from the previous trading day [5]. - In the fourth week of December, the industrial silicon inventory was 456,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.30% and a year - on - year increase of 24.08% [5]. - In the fourth week of December, the industrial silicon weekly production was 81,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.68% and a year - on - year increase of 9.35% [5]. - The polysilicon quotation shows a divergence between the rising trend and actual transactions. The industry inventory is high, and downstream enterprises lack the motivation to replenish stocks. However, with industry self - discipline and policy support, enterprises are determined to hold prices, and the spot transaction price of polysilicon is expected to remain stable in the short term [5].
建信期货国债日报-20260106
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-06 02:18
021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03124070 行业 国债日报 日期 2026 年 1 月 6 日 研究员:何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3008762 研究员:黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3051589 研究员:聂嘉怡(股指) 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 | | 表1:国债期货1月5日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 (%) | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2603 | 111.380 | 111.650 | 111.320 | 111.270 | -0.060 | -0.05 | ...
建信期货纸浆日报-20260106
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-06 02:18
Group 1: General Information - The report is a daily paper pulp report dated January 6, 2025 [1][2] - The energy and chemical research team includes researchers for different sectors such as paper pulp, crude oil asphalt, etc [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions Market Review - The previous settlement price of the pulp futures 05 contract was 5,554 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5,530 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.43%. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 4,950 - 6,300 yuan/ton, with prices remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The Shandong Yinxing offer was 5,580 - 5,600 yuan/ton [7] - Asia Symbol recently announced a 150 yuan/ton increase in the price of hardwood pulp, and there was no news of adjustment for the softwood pulp FOB price. In November, the chemical pulp shipments of the world's top 20 pulp - producing countries decreased by 6.9% year - on - year, with softwood pulp down 7.6% and hardwood pulp down 7.3%. Shipments to the Chinese market decreased significantly. In November 2025, the European wood pulp inventory was 700,000 tons, a 0.8% month - on - month decrease and a 6.3% year - on - year increase; the European wood pulp consumption was 805,600 tons, a 6.2% month - on - month decrease and a 4.6% year - on - year decrease. The total pulp imports in November 2025 were 3.246 million tons, a 24% month - on - month increase and a 15.9% year - on - year increase. As of December 25, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports was 1.8891 million tons, a 2.47% week - on - week decrease [8] - On the demand side, some paper mills had price increase expectations due to cost pressure, but due to insufficient follow - up of terminal orders, paper price increases were weak, and the mainstream price of offset paper remained stable. During the holiday, the fundamentals changed little, and the market focused on the pricing of near - month warehouse receipts and was in a state of oscillatory adjustment [8] Group 3: Industry News - On January 4, 2026, Rizhao Party Secretary Li Zaiwu visited Asia Symbol (Shandong) Pulp & Paper Co., Ltd. to investigate the progress of key projects and solve problems in project promotion [9] Group 4: Data Overview - The report includes multiple data charts related to pulp, such as import softwood pulp spot prices in Shandong, pulp futures prices, pulp spot - futures price differences, etc., with data sources from Wind and the research and development department of CCB Futures, as well as some from Zhuochuang Information [7][15][26]
建信期货生猪日报-20260106
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-06 02:18
Report Information - Report Type: Pig Daily Report [1] - Date: January 6, 2026 [2] Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The trend of supply and demand in the pig market has different characteristics in the long - and short - term. In the long run, pig slaughter is expected to show a slight increase until the first half of next year. Currently, the supply is relatively loose, and the consumption after the festival has declined but remains at a relatively high level. The spot market will mainly fluctuate. For futures, the supply is expected to increase slightly, and the pre - Spring Festival demand has strong elasticity. However, the pressure from secondary fattening is still high, and there is a risk of callback. The progress of the epidemic needs to be continuously monitored [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 5th, the main 2603 contract of live pigs opened lower, then rose and fell back, and finally closed down. The highest price was 11,775 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,610 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,660 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.98% compared with the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 5,099 lots to 351,622 lots [6] - **Spot Market**: On the 5th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 12.44 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.34 yuan/kg compared with before the festival [6] - **Supply - side Situation**: In the long term, pig slaughter is expected to show a slight increase until the first half of next year. The enthusiasm for secondary fattening before the festival has increased, and the utilization rate of secondary fattening pens has slightly increased. The monthly slaughter of breeding enterprises in January may continue to increase slightly, and the current slaughter rhythm of the breeding side is controllable [7] - **Demand - side Situation**: Currently, secondary fattening has increased, with rolling restocking demand. After the festival, consumption has declined, but there is still room for cured meat and sausage production. Terminal consumer consumption remains at a high level. The orders of slaughtering enterprises have decreased after the festival, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have slightly decreased. On January 5th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 188,800 heads, an increase of 200 heads compared with the previous day, a decrease of 12,000 heads week - on - week, and an increase of 10,000 heads month - on - month [7] 2. Industry News - According to Yongyi Information, in the week of January 4th, the overall proportion of small - weight pigs below 90 kg in the total slaughter was 5.44%, a decrease of 0.07% compared with the previous week. The current epidemic is sporadically occurring seasonally, and the slaughter volume of small - weight pigs in many places has decreased compared with the previous period. There is no sign of the epidemic spreading [8][10] 3. Data Overview - **15kg Piglet Price**: In the week of January 4th, the average sales price of 15kg piglets in the market was 319 yuan/head, an increase of 12 yuan/head compared with the previous week [17] - **Breeding Profit**: As of January 4th, the average profit per self - bred and self - raised pig was - 28.3 yuan/head, an increase of 96 yuan/head week - on - week; the average profit per pig purchased as a piglet for fattening was - 160.8 yuan/head, an increase of 95 yuan/head week - on - week [17] - **Average Slaughter Weight**: In the week of January 4th, the average slaughter weight of live pigs was 128.66kg, a decrease of 1.04kg compared with the previous week (a week - on - week decrease of 0.80%), a decrease of 1.16kg compared with the previous month (a month - on - month decrease of 0.89%), and an increase of 2.6kg compared with the same period last year (a year - on - year increase of 2.06%) [17]
纯碱、玻璃日报-20260106
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-06 02:14
行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2026 年 1 月 6 日 油) 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 硅)028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 021-60635727 期货从业资格号:F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 数据来源:Wind,建信期货研究发展部 纯碱当日行情: 能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油燃料 研究员:任俊弛(PTA、MEG) 研究员:彭浩洲(尿素、工业 研究员:彭婧霖(聚烯烃) 研究员:刘悠然(纸浆) 研究员:冯泽仁(玻璃、纯 ...
建信期货多晶硅日报-20260106
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-06 02:14
Report Date - The report is dated January 6, 2026 [2] Market Performance - The price of the main contract of polycrystalline silicon showed a strong and volatile trend. The closing price of the PS2605 contract was 58,645 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.19%. The trading volume was 17,155 lots, and the open interest was 74,571 lots, with a net decrease of 1,797 lots. The net long positions of the top twenty decreased by 1,168 lots, and the net short positions of the top twenty decreased by 1,164 lots [4] Spot Price - The transaction price range of n-type polysilicon reclaimed materials was 50,000 - 56,000 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price was 53,900 yuan/ton, a week-on-week increase of 1.32%. The transaction price range of n-type granular silicon was 50,000 - 51,000 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price was 50,500 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous period [4] Market Outlook - The spot price remained stable overall. The Silicon Industry Branch expected that the output and shipment scale of polysilicon in January would be significantly reduced to 60,000 - 80,000 tons, but the implementation needed to be observed. Downstream components were also under pressure from the rising prices of silver and silicon materials, and the production schedule in January would decline. The supply and demand were expected to enter a stage of simultaneous reduction. The polysilicon futures would remain stable and continue to trade with low volume and decreasing positions in a volatile manner before there was a significant improvement in the industry and policy relaxation [4] Market News - On January 5, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 4,030 lots, an increase of 20 lots compared to the previous trading day [5] - In December, the estimated production of polysilicon was 116,900 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 4.42% [5] - At the end of December, the inventory of polysilicon factories was 309,800 tons, a week-on-week increase of 0.49% [5]
建信期货原油日报-20260106
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-06 02:12
行业 原油日报 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 日期 2026 年 1 月 6 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油沥青) 研究员:任俊弛(PTA、MEG) 研究员:彭浩洲(工业硅碳市场) 研究员:彭婧霖(聚烯烃) 研究员:刘悠然(纸浆) 研究员:冯泽仁(玻璃纯碱) 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1 ...
贵金属日评-20260106
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-06 02:11
Report Summary 1. Reported Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, precious metals, especially industrial precious metals, will continue to perform strongly under the influence of international political and economic restructuring, the Fed's loose monetary policy, improved global economic growth prospects, and the substitution demand of silver and platinum for gold jewelry. Investors are advised to maintain a bullish trading approach while controlling position sizes. Short - hedgers should appropriately reduce the hedging ratio. [4] - The restructuring of the global political and economic landscape and the loose monetary policies of global central banks will continue to boost the demand for reserve diversification, strategic value, and liquidity premium of the precious metals sector. In 2026, the precious metals sector will continue the medium - term upward trend since 2024. Silver and platinum will outperform gold, but price volatility will also increase significantly. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metals Market Conditions and Outlook Intraday Market Conditions - Due to the US raid on Venezuela over the weekend and the capture of the Venezuelan president, which triggered significant geopolitical risks, the precious metals sector generally rose during the Asian session on Monday, with London gold returning above $4,400 per ounce. The correction at the end of December 2025 has fully released the adjustment risks accumulated within the precious metals. [4] - Domestic precious metals showed varying degrees of increase. The Shanghai Gold Index rose 1.78%, the Shanghai Silver Index rose 6.81%, the Guangzhou Platinum Index rose 10.66%, and the Guangzhou Palladium Index rose 6.38%. [5] Medium - term Market Conditions - Trump's 2.0 government may focus on consolidating the geopolitical strategic space in the Western Hemisphere in 2026, which may lead to a significant increase in geopolitical risks. [5] - The improvement of global economic growth momentum and the substitution demand of silver and platinum for gold jewelry will make the performance of silver and platinum stronger than that of gold. The industrial demand for silver is boosted by the global green energy transition, and the industrial demand for platinum and palladium is expected to improve due to the EU's cancellation of the 2035 fuel - vehicle ban. [5] - Investors are advised to maintain a bullish trading approach, strictly control position sizes. Conservative traders can consider cross - variety arbitrage strategies such as going long on silver and platinum and short on gold and palladium. Long - hedgers should hedge in batches as early as possible, and short - hedgers should appropriately reduce the hedging ratio. [5] 3.2 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - The US President Trump ordered the arrest of Venezuelan President Maduro and claimed that the US would take over Venezuela, but the US military has not gained control of Venezuela, and the Maduro government is still in power and unwilling to cooperate with Washington. [16] - Venezuela's state - owned oil company PDVSA has started to cut crude oil production due to the US oil embargo, and Chevron's oil shipments have also stopped since Thursday. [16] - India is asking refiners to report their weekly purchases of Russian and US crude oil, and it is expected that Russia's crude oil imports will drop below 1 million barrels per day. [16]
建信期货豆粕日报-20260106
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-06 02:11
Report Information - Report Date: January 6, 2026 [2] - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - **External Market**: During the holiday, the US soybean futures contracts first declined and then stabilized but remained weak overall, with the main contract approaching 1050 cents. The rebound at the end of December was due to the price reaching an important support level and the year - end inventory of US soybeans decreasing year - on - year. Also, the recent export sales of US soybeans were good, with frequent large - order transactions and continuous purchases from China. However, the biggest pressure on the external market came from the approaching South American harvest. Brazilian soybeans entered a critical growth stage, with sufficient rainfall in the main producing areas, and some institutions have raised the production forecast to over 180 million tons, higher than the USDA's estimate of 175 million tons and last year's 171.5 million tons. The external market tested the support level of 1050 cents again [6]. - **Domestic Market**: Soybean meal rebounded before the holiday due to rumors of customs clearance delays and oil mill shutdowns. However, the high inventory was difficult to consume, and these positive factors were short - term. The overall bull market in commodities, especially precious metals and non - ferrous metals, boosted bullish sentiment. But once the market returned to fundamentals, soybean meal might have a catch - up decline, especially the 05 contract, which was mainly priced by Brazilian soybean costs and was unlikely to have a continuous rebound [6]. Operation Suggestions - Short - term, it is recommended to go short on rallies and pay attention to the support level of the external market [6]. 2. Industry News - **Brazil**: According to Emater, as Rio Grande do Sul entered the final sowing stage, the nutritional growth of the 2025/26 soybean crop in the state was "satisfactory to very good". Emater maintained the average yield forecast at 3180 kg per hectare, a significant increase from the previous season's 2009 kg per hectare affected by drought. If the weather remained favorable, the state's soybean production could reach 21.44 million tons, a 57.14% increase from the previous year. As of last Thursday, 92% of the expected 6.74 million - hectare planting area had been sown, and 98% of the sown crops were in the germination/nutritional growth stage [7]. - **Argentina**: As of December 23, the soybean planting rate in Argentina for the 2025/26 season was 77%, up from 65% last week but lower than 88% in the same period last year [9]. 3. Data Overview - Data sources for various figures (including soybean meal factory price, basis of 01 contract, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, USD/CNY central parity rate, and USD/BRL exchange rate) are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [12][14][16]
建信期货聚烯烃日报-20260106
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-06 02:11
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: January 6, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - Geopolitical conflicts stimulate risk - aversion, but the increase in Venezuelan crude oil production will put long - term pressure on the crude oil fundamentals. The plasticizing sector rose in the morning and fell in the afternoon. The supply pressure of polyolefin has increased, and the demand is in the seasonal off - season. Considering the oversupply in the crude oil market and the inventory digestion cycle, the rebound should be treated bearishly [6] Group 4: Market Quotes - Futures market quotes: For plastics, L2601 closed at 6240 yuan/ton, down 1.72%; L2605 closed at 6449 yuan/ton, down 0.32%; L2609 closed at 6496 yuan/ton, down 0.14%. For PP, PP2601 closed at 6150 yuan/ton, down 0.74%; PP2605 closed at 6330 yuan/ton, down 0.24%; PP2609 closed at 6355 yuan/ton, down 0.20% [5] Group 5: Industry News - On January 5, 2026, the inventory of major producers was 690,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons (2.82%) from the previous working day. The inventory in the same period last year was 590,000 tons - PE market prices partially declined. LLDPE prices in North China were in the range of 6300 - 6500 yuan/ton, in East China 6380 - 6800 yuan/ton, and in South China 6500 - 6800 yuan/ton - The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily 5730 - 5820 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The demand for propylene was good, and the market trading atmosphere was positive - The PP market showed a slight increase. The mainstream prices of North China wire drawing were 6080 - 6200 yuan/ton, in East China 6150 - 6350 yuan/ton, and in South China 6140 - 6400 yuan/ton [7] Group 6: Data Overview - The report includes figures such as L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventory and its year - on - year change, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [9][12][17]