Jian Xin Qi Huo
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碳市场周报-20251017
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-10-17 10:09
Group 1: Report General Information - Report name: Carbon Market Weekly Report [2] - Date: October 17, 2025 [2] Group 2: Research Team - Energy and Chemical Research Team includes researchers for different areas such as crude oil and fuel (Li Jie, CFA), PTA/MEG (Ren Junchi), industrial silicon/polycrystalline silicon (Peng Haozhou), polyolefins (Peng Jinglin), and pulp (Liu Youran) [3] Group 3: Carbon Market Weekly Overview - In the third week of October, the national carbon market carbon quota price continued to decline. The weekly price was 53.99 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 7.23% [4] - The expected buying price of national carbon emission allowances (CEA) in October 2025 is 55.39 yuan/ton, the selling price is 60.63 yuan/ton, and the mid - price is 58.00 yuan/ton [4] - The expected buying price of national carbon emission allowances (CEA) in December 2025 is 62.10 yuan/ton, the selling price is 70.45 yuan/ton, and the mid - price is 66.28 yuan/ton [4] - The expected buying price of China Certified Emission Reduction (CCER) in October 2025 is 69.00 yuan/ton, the selling price is 76.83 yuan/ton, and the mid - price is 72.92 yuan/ton [4] Group 4: Market News - On September 24, 2025, at the China Carbon Market Conference, Deputy Minister Li Gao of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment released the "National Carbon Market Development Report (2025)", introducing the progress and achievements of the national carbon market since 2024. The Ministry will speed up the construction of a unified national carbon market, improve the system, expand the coverage, enhance market vitality, enrich trading varieties, and strengthen international cooperation [6] - Minister Huang Runqiu reported on China's work on climate change response, carbon peaking, and carbon neutrality. Although significant achievements have been made, challenges remain in green and low - carbon transformation. Some localities are still blindly launching "two high" (high - energy - consuming and high - polluting) projects, which is contrary to the goal of carbon peaking by 2030 [6]
建信期货焦炭焦煤日评-20251017
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-10-17 06:30
Report Overview - Report Type: Coke and Coking Coal Daily Review [1] - Date: October 17, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] 1. Market Performance Summary 1.1 Futures Market - On October 16, the main contracts of coke (J2601) and coking coal (JM2601) futures showed a strengthening trend after fluctuations, recovering most of the losses since September 29. The closing price of J2601 was 1,672.5 yuan/ton, up 2.26%, with a trading volume of 21,965 lots and a position of 42,547 lots (a decrease of 314 lots), and a capital inflow of 0.16 billion yuan. The closing price of JM2601 was 1,185.5 yuan/ton, up 3.36%, with a trading volume of 981,288 lots and a position of 623,751 lots (an increase of 21,901 lots), and a capital inflow of 5.61 billion yuan [5]. 1.2 Spot Market - On October 16, the spot market prices of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port were all 1,520 yuan/ton, with no change. The prices of low - sulfur main coking coal in different regions such as Tangshan, Lvliang, and Linfen also remained stable [8]. 2. Technical Analysis - On October 16, the daily KDJ indicators of both the coke and coking coal 2601 contracts showed golden crosses. The green bars of the daily MACD of the coke and coking coal 2601 contracts have been narrowing for 2 consecutive trading days [8]. 3. Market Outlook 3.1 News - On October 16, steel mills in Guangdong such as Zhongnan Iron and Steel, Yangchun New Iron and Steel, and Yufeng Iron and Steel issued price - support notices. Sichuan De Sheng and Dazhou Iron and Steel also sent letters to agents to resist the low - price dumping of speculators. - After China's counter - measures in restricting the export of medium and heavy rare earth - related raw materials, equipment, and technology and charging special port fees for US - related ships, the US authorities threatened to impose a 100% tariff on China, but on October 13, they lowered the tone of the Sino - US trade conflict. - BHP has reached an important agreement with Sinomine Resource Group and some Chinese steel manufacturers and traders. Starting from the fourth quarter of 2025, 30% of the amount in BHP's iron ore spot transactions with China will be settled in RMB [10]. 3.2 Fundamentals - **Coke**: As of last week, the coke production of independent coking plants has been slightly declining for 4 consecutive weeks after reaching a new high since late May. The coke production of steel mills has increased significantly after reaching a new low since August 2023 in early September, but the growth rate has narrowed. Port coke inventory has rebounded slightly after falling to a new low since mid - July, while steel mill inventory has started to decline after reaching a new high since late May. Coking plant inventory has rebounded from a new low since late October last year. The profit per ton of coke has turned profitable after 3 consecutive weeks of losses, and the first round of spot price increases for coke was implemented on October 1 [11]. - **Coking Coal**: From January to August, the year - on - year decline in China's coal and lignite imports narrowed by 0.8 percentage points to - 12.2%, and the year - on - year decline in coking coal imports slightly narrowed to - 7.6%. As of last week, the inventory of clean coal and raw coal in mines has dropped significantly in the past 16 weeks, with overall declines of 60.8% and 36.4% respectively. The inventory of independent coking plants has significantly declined from a new high since the end of January, and the inventory of steel mills has declined for 2 consecutive weeks to a new low since late June. Port inventory has rebounded to the level of late July. With the significant inventory reduction of coking plants after restocking, the prices of the main coking coal spot market have continued to be strong [11]. 3.3 Comprehensive Outlook - Geopolitical factors have increased market volatility, but the fundamentals of the coke and coking coal spot markets have supported the futures market. The overall trend of coke and coking coal futures is oscillating strongly. Attention should be paid to the development of Sino - US relations, changes in the supply of the iron ore spot market, the path of steel profit recovery, and the differences in the re - inflation rhythm of precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black metals, and energy and chemical commodities caused by macro - asset allocation [12]. 4. Industry News - According to the latest data from the State Tax Administration, in the first three quarters, the high - quality development of the manufacturing industry continued to advance, with sales revenue increasing by 4.7% year - on - year, accounting for 29.8% of the national corporate sales revenue. The high - end transformation of the manufacturing industry advanced rapidly, with the sales revenue of the equipment manufacturing industry increasing by 9% year - on - year, accounting for 46.9% of the manufacturing industry. In particular, the sales revenue of industries such as computer and communication equipment and industrial mother machines increased by 13.5% and 11.8% respectively year - on - year [13]. - Multiple companies released announcements, including power generation, coal production, and performance forecasts. For example, in the third quarter of 2025, Huaneng International's on - grid power generation decreased by 3.67% year - on - year; Shaanxi Energy's coal production in the third quarter increased by 17.83% year - on - year; Chongqing Iron and Steel expects to reduce losses by 1.12 - 1.14 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025 compared with the same period last year [14]. - Shanxi's provincial - owned enterprises have built 137 intelligent coal mines, with advanced coal production capacity accounting for 95%. Enterprises such as Shanxi Coking Coal and Jinneng Holding are piloting the construction of "zero - carbon" mines [14]. - The Jiangsu Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Three - Year Action Plan for Cultivating and Improving the National Advanced Manufacturing Cluster of Southern Jiangsu Special Steel Materials (2025 - 2027)". By 2027, the output value of the cluster's leading industries is expected to reach 1 trillion yuan, the output of special steel and high - end alloys will reach 35 million tons, the R & D investment intensity will be close to 4%, and a series of goals in innovation and enterprise cultivation will be achieved [15]. - On October 14, the US Trade Representative Office (USTR) officially implemented a revised port fee policy, significantly reducing the port fees for Chinese - flagged and Chinese - operated vessels, which alleviated the potential impact on the US coal export industry [15]. 5. Data Overview - The report also presents multiple charts related to the coke and coking coal markets, including spot price indices, production, inventory, and basis, with data sources from Mysteel and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [17][21][22][29][30][31]
锌期货日报-20251017
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-10-17 06:29
Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: October 17, 2025 [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The zinc market shows an external - strong and internal - weak pattern. It is driven by overseas factors with increased volatility, and the upside space is limited by domestic fundamentals. The low - level rebound momentum is insufficient, and it will mainly fluctuate at a low level in the short term [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: For SHFE zinc 2511, the opening price was 22,065 yuan/ton, the closing price was 21,940 yuan/ton, down 55 yuan or 0.25%. The highest was 22,085 yuan/ton, the lowest was 21,880 yuan/ton, and the trading volume decreased with a reduction in positions. For SHFE zinc 2512, the opening was 22,105 yuan/ton, closing at 21,965 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan or 0.32%. For SHFE zinc 2601, the opening was 22,140 yuan/ton, closing at 22,005 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan or 0.27% [7]. - **Market Situation**: Macro - wise, Fed Governor Milan called for a faster pace of interest rate cuts, and many Fed officials' recent talks were dovish, weakening the US dollar. LME zinc inventory decreased again after a small restocking, with a strong LME 0 - 3 Back structure and increased structural risks under low inventory. The short - term bottom support of LME zinc was strong, and its price rebounded to around $2,945/ton after falling to $2,926/ton. The domestic import profit and loss was - 4,483.6 yuan/ton, and the export window was approaching [7]. 2. Industry News - **Shanghai Market**: On October 16, 2025, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was 21,965 - 22,030 yuan/ton, that of Shuangyan was 22,025 - 22,120 yuan/ton, and that of 1 zinc was 21,895 - 21,960 yuan/ton. The morning market quoted a premium of 70 - 90 yuan/ton to the SMM average price, and there were few quotes against the market. In the second trading session, the ordinary domestic brand quoted a premium of 40 yuan/ton to the 2511 contract, Baiyin quoted a premium of 30 yuan/ton, and Shuangyan quoted a premium of 100 - 130 yuan/ton [8]. - **Ningbo Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was around 21,935 - 21,970 yuan/ton. The regular brands in Ningbo quoted a discount of 10 yuan/ton to the 2511 contract and a premium of 30 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot price [8]. - **Tianjin Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc ingots was 22,250 - 22,410 yuan/ton, that of Zijin was 22,320 - 22,470 yuan/ton, and that of 1 zinc ingots was around 22,180 - 22,280 yuan/ton. The price of Huludao was 23,100 yuan/ton. The ordinary 0 zinc quoted a discount of 50 to a premium of 20 yuan/ton to the 2511 contract, and Zijin quoted a premium of 20 - 80 yuan/ton [8]. - **Guangdong Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was 22,250 - 22,380 yuan/ton. The mainstream brands quoted a discount of 45 yuan/ton to the 2511 contract and a discount of 20 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot price, and the price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong narrowed [8][9]. 3. Data Overview - The report provided figures such as the price trends of zinc in two markets, SHFE monthly spreads, SMM's weekly inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions, and LME zinc inventory, with data sources including Wind, SMM, and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [11][13]
建信期货铁矿石日评-20251017
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-10-17 06:28
Report Information - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: October 17, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - On October 16, the iron ore futures main contract 2601 oscillated weakly, closing at 773.5 yuan/ton, down 0.90%. With the confirmation of the negotiation rumor between Sinomine Group and BHP and the escalation of Sino-US tariff disputes in the macro market, the price may oscillate weakly but is expected to remain within the oscillation range since August. Attention should be paid to the repair of downstream demand [7][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes Review and Future Outlook 3.1.1 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - On October 16, the main iron ore futures contract 2601 oscillated weakly, opening lower and then oscillating, closing at 773.5 yuan/ton, down 0.90%. The trading volume was 398,551 lots, and the open interest was 535,578 lots, an increase of 27,213 lots. The net inflow of funds was 293 million yuan [5][7] - The main iron ore outer - market quotes and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port remained flat compared with the previous trading day [9] 3.1.2 Technical Analysis - The daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2601 contract continued to decline after a death - cross on the previous trading day; the green bar of the daily MACD indicator of the iron ore 2601 has been expanding for 3 consecutive trading days [9] 3.1.3 Future Outlook - BHP will change 30% of the amount in iron ore spot transactions with China to be settled in RMB from the fourth quarter of 2025, and will set an observation period for long - term contracts in 2026, still denominated in US dollars for now [10] - In terms of supply, the shipments and arrivals from Australia and Brazil increased in September, affected by end - of - quarter impulse. Shipments are expected to decline in October, and the recent significant increase in arrivals is expected to gradually fall back [11] - In terms of demand, the daily average pig iron output is still above 240,000 tons but has declined slightly for 3 consecutive weeks. Considering the continuous narrowing of steel production profits, the growth space of subsequent output is limited and may oscillate and decline around 240,000 tons in the short term [11] - In terms of inventory, steel mills increased their pre - holiday restocking efforts, and the iron ore inventory of steel mills continued to grow, which is expected to gradually fall back after the holiday and return to the state of restocking on demand [11] 3.2 Industry News - On October 16, the central bank carried out 236 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed - rate and quantity - tender method, with an operating rate of 1.40%. With 612 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal was 376 billion yuan [12] - The Ministry of Commerce will carry out work in aspects such as releasing policy effectiveness, promoting trade, and deepening trade cooperation, including implementing existing foreign trade policies, strengthening service guarantees for foreign trade enterprises, and making policy reserves [12] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple figures showing data such as the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade, low - grade ores and PB powder, the basis between iron ore spot and the January contract, shipments from Brazil and Australia, arrivals at 45 ports, etc. The data sources are Mysteel and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [14][18][22]
建信期货股指日评-20251017
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-10-17 06:16
Group 1: Report Information - Report type: Stock index daily review [1] - Date: October 17, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Nie Jiayi, He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin [3] Group 2: Market Review and Outlook Market Review - On October 16, the Wind All A index declined with shrinking volume, down 0.44%, and over 4,000 stocks fell. CSI 300 and SSE 50 rose 0.26% and 0.59% respectively, while CSI 500 and CSI 1000 fell 0.86% and 1.09% respectively. Blue - chip stocks performed better. In index futures, IF and IH rose 0.30% and 0.72% respectively, while IC and IM fell 1.10% and 0.96% respectively [6] Market Outlook - The US intends to extend the suspension of tariffs on China in exchange for China delaying rare - earth export controls. China has stated its stance. Before the APEC meeting, Sino - US game intensifies. China's September export data shows resilience, but exports to the US decline. Due to the high base last year, export year - on - year data may face pressure in Q4. The low - valuation advantage of A - shares has disappeared, and the high valuation of the technology sector brings risks. Tariff disturbances may not end soon, and market volatility may continue. In the short term, an arbitrage strategy of long large - cap blue - chips and short small - cap growth stocks can be used. In the short - term, attention can be paid to defensive sectors such as banks, gas, and power, as well as new infrastructure and domestic substitution sectors. As the Fourth Plenary Session approaches, the market style may turn to technology growth [7] Group 3: Industry News - On October 16, the central bank conducted 236 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.40%, with a net withdrawal of 376 billion yuan. The Ministry of Commerce will work on releasing policy effectiveness, promoting trade, and deepening trade cooperation, including implementing existing policies, providing services to foreign - trade enterprises, and preparing new policies [30]
建信期货工业硅日报-20251017
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-10-17 06:15
Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon futures prices are oscillating. The Si2511 contract closed at 8,605 yuan/ton, up 0.12%, with a trading volume of 209,588 lots and an open interest of 131,649 lots, a net decrease of 10,732 lots. Spot prices are mainly stable, basis fluctuations are weakening, and capital divergence is converging. Supply pressure remains high, with the output in the second week of October at 95,700 tons and the monthly output expected to reach 420,000 tons. There is no significant increase in demand, with stable monthly demand for polysilicon, 120,000 tons for organosilicon, and 120,000 tons for exports and alloy demand. The supply-demand surplus pressure persists, and there is no inventory reduction drive in the market. The policy side is in a vacuum period. Future support is mainly concentrated on production cuts in the southwest and rising electricity prices, and potential policy benefits need to be observed. The fundamentals are difficult to provide significant drivers, and the short-term price is expected to oscillate between 8,200 and 9,000 yuan/ton [4] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - Market performance: Industrial silicon futures prices oscillated. The Si2511 contract closed at 8,605 yuan/ton, up 0.12%, with a trading volume of 209,588 lots and an open interest of 131,649 lots, a net decrease of 10,732 lots [4] - Future outlook: Spot prices are mainly stable, basis fluctuations are weakening, and capital divergence is converging. Supply pressure remains high, with the output in the second week of October at 95,700 tons and the monthly output expected to reach 420,000 tons. There is no significant increase in demand, with stable monthly demand for polysilicon, 120,000 tons for organosilicon, and 120,000 tons for exports and alloy demand. The supply-demand surplus pressure persists, and there is no inventory reduction drive in the market. The policy side is in a vacuum period. Future support is mainly concentrated on production cuts in the southwest and rising electricity prices, and potential policy benefits need to be observed. The fundamentals are difficult to provide significant drivers, and the short-term price is expected to oscillate between 8,200 and 9,000 yuan/ton [4] 2. Market News - On October 16, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,291 lots, a net decrease of 66 lots from the previous trading day [5] - The organosilicon DMC market is stable, with quotes ranging from 11,100 to 11,500 yuan/ton. Most manufacturers still have some pre-sold orders as support. Currently, the number of manufacturers under maintenance is relatively large, and some manufacturers plan to enter maintenance, leading to a reduction in market supply [5] - On October 16, there was a rumor that a polysilicon storage platform had been established, with the platform company's industrial and commercial registration completed (named "China Silicon Capacity Integration Co., Ltd.") and a joint management account opened. However, a reporter from Securities Times learned from an authoritative industry source that the rumor was false [5]
纯碱、玻璃日报-20251017
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-10-17 06:14
行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2025 年 10 月 17 日 油) 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 硅)028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 021-60635727 期货从业资格号:F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油燃料 研究员:任俊弛(PTA、MEG) 研究员:彭浩洲(尿素、工业 研究员:彭婧霖(聚烯烃) 研究员:刘悠然(纸浆) 研究员:冯泽仁(玻璃、纯碱) 请阅读正文后的声明 基本面来看,供应回落,库存 ...
建信期货国债日报-20251017
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-10-17 06:11
1. Report Information - Report Name: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: October 17, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Finance Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Core View - In October, the bond market may face a dilemma of more negatives than positives. Negatives include the 14th Five - Year Plan and fiscal stimulus boosting credit expansion expectations, intensifying anti - inefficiency efforts, and market waiting for the official implementation of the public fund new regulations. Positives may include economic slowdown boosting easing expectations, lower - than - expected fiscal stimulus, and the central bank restarting bond purchases. Currently, short - term monetary easing is unlikely. Overall, in October, the bond market may stabilize after risk clearing, but a rebound may require a resurgence of easing expectations, and it is recommended to wait patiently for better bond allocation opportunities, possibly in the second half of Q4 [11][12] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Condition**: With little change in fundamentals and funding, the stock - bond seesaw continued. The decline of A - shares boosted long - term bonds, and most treasury bond futures closed higher [8] - **Interest Rate Bonds**: Yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds fluctuated narrowly. The medium - and long - term yields declined within 1bp. By 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 was 1.754%, down 0.45bp [9] - **Funding Market**: At the beginning of the month, funds were stable and loose. There were 612 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, and the central bank injected 236 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 376 billion yuan. The inter - bank funding sentiment index was stable, short - term funding rates fluctuated narrowly, the 7 - day rate rose 0.55bp to 1.4225%, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate rose 2bp to 1.65% [10] 3.2 Industry News - **Sino - US Trade**: The US said whether to impose 100% tariffs on China depends on China's actions. The Chinese Foreign Ministry urged the US to correct its wrong practices. China opposes the EU's protectionist and discriminatory practices on technology transfer [13] - **China's Financial Data**: In September, M2 increased 8.4% year - on - year, M1 increased 7.2% year - on - year, and the M1 - M2 gap hit a new low this year. In the first three quarters, RMB loans increased by 14.75 trillion yuan, and the cumulative increase in social financing was 30.09 trillion yuan, 4.42 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. China's foreign trade maintained growth, with the import and export value in Q3 increasing by 6% year - on - year and 8% in September [14] - **Rare Earth and Other News**: China's export control measures on rare earths are in line with international practices. The US may extend the tariff suspension period in exchange for China delaying rare earth export controls. US President Trump will visit Japan at the end of October and then attend the APEC meeting in South Korea [15] 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures**: It includes information on treasury bond futures trading data, main contract inter - period spreads, inter - variety spreads (2 - year vs 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year; 5 - year vs 30 - year, 10 - year; 10 - year vs 30 - year), and main contract trends [6][16][17] - **Money Market**: It shows data on inter - bank pledged repo weighted rates, SHIBOR term structure and trends [25][28][33] - **Derivatives Market**: It presents Shibor3M and FR007 interest rate swap fixed - rate curves (mean) [37][38]
建信期货生猪日报-20251017
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-10-17 06:10
Report Overview - Report Title: Pig Daily Report - Date: October 17, 2025 - Industry: Pig 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The supply of live pigs is expected to increase slightly before the Spring Festival, and the 2511 and 2601 contracts will continue to be dragged down by the weak spot market and mainly fluctuate weakly. In the current low - price environment, attention should be paid to whether the rhythm and volume of secondary fattening will continue to increase and drive the market. On the spot side, the supply and demand of live pigs are both increasing, but the supply growth rate is still relatively large, and the supply - demand relationship is loose. The spot price may still be mainly fluctuating weakly, and it has rebounded slightly driven by the secondary fattening demand [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 15th, the main 2601 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower and then fluctuated downwards, closing with a negative line at the end of the session. The highest was 12,175 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,880 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,905 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.21% compared with the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 15,190 lots to 296,783 lots [6]. - **Spot Market**: On the 16th, the average price of三元 pigs nationwide was 11.16 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.11 yuan/kg compared with the previous day [6]. - **Supply - side**: In September, the actual completion rate of supply - side slaughter was only 96.5%, and part of the slaughter will be postponed to October. The planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises in October increased by 5.14% compared with the actual slaughter volume in September, and the slaughter volume may continue to increase significantly. The slaughter weight increased seasonally. In the long term, the slaughter of live pigs is expected to maintain a slight increase until the first half of next year [7]. - **Demand - side**: Currently, the cost of secondary fattening to produce meat is low, and there is some replenishment demand after the utilization rate of pens declines, which has increased in some areas. Terminal demand lacks obvious positive support and has declined slightly after the festival, but as the weather continues to cool, residents' consumption may continue to rise, and the demand side may gradually improve. The orders of slaughtering enterprises have increased slightly, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have increased slightly, but the overall increase may be limited. On October 16th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 163,300 heads, an increase of 1,000 heads compared with the previous day, a week - on - week increase of 10,600 heads, and a month - on - month increase of 14,000 heads [7]. 3.2 Industry News - No specific industry news content is provided in the report. 3.3 Data Overview - **Breeding Profit**: As of October 9th, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was - 77 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 23 yuan/head; the average profit per head of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 320 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 13 yuan/head [16]. - **15kg Piglet Price**: In the week of October 9th, the average market sales price of 15kg piglets was 281 yuan/head, a decrease of 53 yuan/head compared with the previous week [16]. - **Price Difference between 150 - kg Fat Pigs and Standard Pigs**: In the week of October 9th, the price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.26 yuan/jin, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 yuan/jin [16]. - **National Average Slaughter Weight of Live Pigs**: As of the week of October 9th, the national average slaughter weight of live pigs was 128.48 kg, a decrease of 0.07 kg compared with the previous week, a month - on - month decline of 0.05% [16].
建信期货豆粕日报-20251017
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-10-17 06:07
行业 豆粕 日期 2025 年 10 月 17 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号:F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号:F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号:F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员:余兰兰 研究员:林贞磊 研究员:王海峰 研究员:洪辰亮 研究员:刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 | 表1:行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 ...