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建信期货棉花日报-20260107
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-07 01:07
1. Report Information - Reported industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: January 7, 2026 [2] - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] 2. Core View - Zhengzhou cotton continued its upward trend. After the holiday, with limited changes in the fundamentals and the boost of sentiment in the commodity market, after the short - term speculation on the expected reduction of planting, other positive factors are needed for further support. In January, the pre - Spring Festival restocking situation of downstream enterprises can be observed, with strong pressure at the integer - level resistance levels and a phased convergence space for the internal - external price difference [8] 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Domestic Spot Market**: The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 15,615 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The fixed - price quotes for 41 - 31 grade/dual 29/less than 3% impurity machine - picked cotton in southern Xinjiang's Kashgar were mostly above 15,300 yuan on a conditioned weight basis, and above 15,400 yuan in northern Xinjiang. The low basis in Kashgar was CF05 + 800 - 900, and in northern Xinjiang it was CF05 + 950 and above [7] - **Domestic Yarn and Fabric Market**: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market was average, with mainly rigid - demand sales. The prices of pure - cotton yarn remained stable overall, and some manufacturers with low inventory pressure continued to raise prices. The sales in the pure - cotton grey fabric market remained weak, with no increase in sales volume and average new order volume [7] - **International Market**: As of the week ending December 25, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 30,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 27% and a 31% decrease from the average of the previous four weeks. The weekly shipment volume was 31,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4% but an 11% increase from the average of the previous four weeks. The application and issuance of China's 1% tariff import quota are about to start, the net long position of the CFTC US cotton fund has continued to rise, and the external market has recovered [8] - **Domestic Supply and Demand**: As of January 5, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume in China was 6.5789 million tons, an increase of 36,400 tons from the previous day. There is still some upward pressure on the estimated output of the 2025/26 season. The downstream product prices have strengthened steadily following the cotton price. Although the operating rate of the downstream industry has decreased slightly, the finished - product inventory has also decreased, and the overall inventory pressure is not large [8] 3.2 Industry News - India has resumed imposing an 11% tariff on cotton imports since January 1, 2026, which is expected to reduce the domestic supply in India and push up the domestic spot price [9] 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents various data charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot and futures prices, cotton basis changes, inter - contract spreads, cotton commercial and industrial inventories, warehouse receipt volume, and exchange rates such as the US dollar against the Chinese yuan and the Indian rupee [14][16][17]
建信期货铁矿石日评-20260106
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-06 02:52
Report Overview - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: January 6, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of iron ore is expected to increase, while the demand shows a slight recovery but remains weak overall. The fundamental pressure on iron ore remains unchanged. Considering the weakening sentiment in the black sector and the fundamental pressure, it is expected that the upward momentum of iron ore prices will be limited, and the prices may turn to a weakening oscillation in the future [10][11]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook - **Market Review**: On January 5, the main 2605 contract of iron ore futures fluctuated strongly. After opening higher, it oscillated and closed at 797.0 yuan/ton, up 0.95%. The prices of major iron ore outer disks increased by 0 - 0.5 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of major iron ore grades at Qingdao Port increased by 2 - 6 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The KDJ indicator of the daily line of the iron ore 2605 contract showed a divergent trend, with the K and J values turning up and the D value continuing to decline, showing a golden cross trend. The red column of the MACD indicator of the daily line of the iron ore 2605 contract turned to expand [7][9]. - **Future Outlook**: Last week, the shipments from Australia and Brazil increased significantly, and the arrival volume also increased. The overseas mines rushed to ship at the end of the year, and the subsequent arrival volume will further increase. On the demand side, the total output of the five major steel products turned up, and the daily average molten iron output increased slightly for two consecutive weeks, mainly affected by the repair of steel profits. The sustainability needs to be observed. In terms of inventory, currently, steel mills maintain the state of replenishing inventory on demand. The inventory available days increased by 1 day compared with last week to 20 days, and the pre - holiday replenishment was not obvious. The port inventory continued to accumulate, reaching nearly 160 million tons, the highest since late February 2022. It is expected that the port inventory will still accumulate slightly in the future [10][11]. 3.2 Industry News - On January 3, according to CCTV News, US President Trump claimed that the US had successfully attacked Venezuela, captured Venezuelan President Maduro and his wife, and taken them out of Venezuela. Trump said that the operation was carried out jointly with the US law enforcement department. Details will be announced later. A press conference will be held at Mar - a - Lago at 11:00 EST on the 3rd. - On January 3, according to CCTV International News, US President Trump told the US media that the US would deeply intervene in Venezuela's oil industry. Trump said that he would evaluate "whether Venezuelan opposition leader Machado should lead Venezuela" and "there is still a vice - president in Venezuela." - Venezuelan Acting President Rodriguez said that she had sent an invitation to the US government to start cooperation on a "cooperation agenda." According to CNN, Rodriguez pointed out that this agenda would be committed to "promoting common development within the framework of international law to strengthen long - lasting social coexistence." She also said that Venezuela would "give priority" to promoting "balanced and mutually respectful international relations" with the US and the region [12]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including the prices of major iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade ore, low - grade ore and PB powder at Qingdao Port, the basis between iron ore spot and the May contract at Qingdao Port, the shipment volumes of iron ore from Brazil and Australia, the arrival volumes of iron ore at 45 ports, the domestic mine capacity utilization rate, the trading volumes of iron ore at major ports, the inventory available days of iron ore for steel mills, the inventory of imported sintered powder ore, the port iron ore inventory and the port clearance volume, the tax - free molten iron cost of sample steel mills, the blast furnace operating rate and the iron - making capacity utilization rate, the electric furnace operating rate and the capacity utilization rate, the national daily average molten iron output, the apparent consumption volume of five major steel products, the weekly output of five major steel products, and the steel mill inventory of five major steel products. All data sources are from Mysteel and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [14][20][22].
锌期货日报-20260106
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-06 02:51
研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3025190 有色金属研究团队 研究员:彭婧霖 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员:余菲菲 请阅读正文后的声明 行业 锌期货日报 日期 2026 年 1 月 6 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号:F3075681 #summary# 每日报告 一、 行情回顾 | 表1:期货市场行情 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位:元/吨 | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变化 | | 沪锌 | 2601 | 23060 | 23335 | 23385 | 23060 | 115 | 0.50 | 11254 | -2476 | | 沪锌 | 2602 | 2 ...
建信期货铝日报-20260106
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-06 02:51
1. Report Industry and Date - The report is about the aluminum industry, specifically an "Aluminum Daily Report" [1] - The report date is January 6, 2026 [2] 2. Research Team - The non-ferrous metals research team includes Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, and Peng Jinglin, with their respective contact information and futures qualification numbers provided [3] 3. Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Despite the lack of news in the aluminum market after the New Year's Day holiday due to the US raid on Venezuela, both LME and SHFE aluminum prices continued to rise in a macro - optimistic atmosphere. LME aluminum exceeded and stood above $3000, and SHFE aluminum rose by over 4% to 23,645 yuan/ton on the first trading day after the holiday, with total positions increasing by more than 45,000 lots to 711,000 lots [8] - Spot trading was sluggish due to high aluminum prices. The discounts in East China were - 220, in Central China were - 450, and in South China were - 280 [8] - The domestic electrolytic aluminum smelting industry maintained high profits, leading to a slight increase in domestic operating capacity. Overseas disruptions were frequent, such as the uncertain renewal of the power contract of a Mozambique aluminum plant. Attention should be paid to the progress of Indonesian capacity expansion [8] - The operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises was weakened by environmental restrictions and high aluminum prices, especially in core consumption areas like Central China where environmental control was tightened, leading to direct shrinkage of spot demand and a rapid increase in domestic aluminum ingot inventories to 684,000 tons [8] - In the medium term, aluminum prices are likely to rise due to loose liquidity and the strong performance of the gold and copper sectors. After the holiday, the enthusiasm of SHFE aluminum funds for long positions was ignited. It is recommended to take a long - position approach at low prices, although short - term fundamental support is limited [8] 4. Industry News - Nineteen air - conditioning enterprises and research institutions, including Midea, Haier, and Xiaomi, jointly launched the implementation of "aluminum replacing copper" standards. Some brand stores said they would launch aluminum household air - conditioning products in 2026 at the earliest, while others had no such plan [9] - Lizhong Group's Mexican factory's second - phase project of 1.8 million ultra - lightweight aluminum alloy wheels has been initially put into production. The third Thai aluminum alloy wheel factory's annual production capacity of 3 million cast - spun aluminum alloy wheels is expected to be put into production next year. High - performance aluminum alloy new material projects in Chongqing, Huai'an, Changchun, and Thailand will be put into production from the fourth quarter of this year to next year [10] - India's state - owned National Aluminium Company (Nalco) plans to start mining the Pottangi bauxite mine in Odisha in June 2026. It is expanding the fifth production line at its Damanjodi alumina refinery, which will increase the annual capacity by 1 million tons to 3.275 million tons [10] - In the first 11 months of this year, China's automobile production and sales both exceeded 31 million, with a year - on - year increase of over 10%. The production and sales of new energy vehicles were both close to 15 million, with a year - on - year increase of over 30%. New energy vehicle exports reached 2.315 million, doubling year - on - year [10]
建信期货焦炭焦煤日评-20260106
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-06 02:31
021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03124070 交易咨询证书号: Z0023472 021-60635736 期货从业资格号:F3033782 投资咨询证书号:Z0014484 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03134307 报告类型 焦炭焦煤日评 日期 2026 年 1 月 6 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员:翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员:聂嘉怡 研究员:冯泽仁 请阅读正文后的声明 #summary# 每日报告 | 一、行情回顾与后市展望 | | --- | | | | | | 表1:1月5日焦炭焦煤期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况(单位:元/吨、手、亿元) | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | ...
建信期货镍日报-20260106
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-06 02:31
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core View of the Report - On the first trading day of 2026, Shanghai nickel continued its strong momentum, hitting a new high of over 136,000 yuan/ton during the session and closing at 134,000 yuan/ton, up 0.57% from the previous day. The total open interest increased by 18,000 lots to 357,000 lots. The sharp rise in nickel prices has driven up the prices of other products in the industry chain. The NPI price has increased to 930 yuan/nickel point, and the nickel salt price has risen to 28,215 yuan/ton. The rebound in LME nickel prices will also drive up the spot cost of nickel salts, and the nickel salt price is expected to continue to rise in the short term. The market is highly volatile, and investors should participate with caution [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On the first trading day of 2026, Shanghai nickel maintained a strong trend, hitting a new high of over 136,000 yuan/ton during the session and closing at 134,000 yuan/ton, up 0.57% from the previous day. The total open interest increased by 18,000 lots to 357,000 lots [7]. - The sharp rise in nickel prices has led to continuous increases in the prices of other products in the industry chain. The NPI price on the 5th has increased to 930 yuan/nickel point, and it is considered a short - term rebound. Given the weak terminal consumption, the upside space may be limited. The nickel salt price has risen significantly to 28,215 yuan/ton, and the rebound in LME nickel prices will drive up the spot cost of nickel salts, with the nickel salt price continuing to rise in the short term [7]. - Stimulated by the news of the reduction of Indonesia's RKAB quota, market speculation sentiment remains high. The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) has set the nickel production target at around 290 million tons in 2026 to match the smelter capacity. Before the policy is finalized, it will continue to provide upward momentum for nickel prices, and the market will be highly volatile [7]. 3.2 Industry News - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) stated that the government's nickel ore production target in the 2026 Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) is about 250 million tons, a significant decrease from the 379 million tons set in the 2025 RKAB. The purpose is to prevent further decline in nickel prices, but the implementation method is still unclear [8]. - The London Metal Exchange (LME) plans to implement a new position limit rule from July next year to follow the requirements of the UK financial regulator. The new rule will cover key contracts, including core futures products such as aluminum, copper, lead, nickel, tin, and zinc, as well as related options and trading settlement contracts [10].
建信期货鸡蛋日报-20260106
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-06 02:19
Report Overview - Report Date: January 6, 2026 [2] - Reported Industry: Egg [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - During the holiday, the national egg price fluctuated slightly higher. The futures opened higher and then declined, showing that the futures market is stronger than the spot market recently, with some off - market funds willing to bottom - fish. The存栏 has reached an inflection point, with weak current situation but good future expectations. The 02 contract is in an absolute off - season, and there is no sign of a trend increase in the spot price. It may weaken again in the future. The post - holiday contracts, especially the peak - season 05 contract, are more suitable for bulls. The near - and far - month contracts should be treated as reverse spreads [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: - For the 2602 egg contract, the previous settlement price was 2931, the opening price was 2977, the highest price was 2987, the lowest price was 2951, the closing price was 2957, the increase was 26, the increase rate was 0.89%, the trading volume was 97,293, the open interest was 87,152, and the open interest change was - 18,716. - For the 2603 egg contract, the previous settlement price was 2950, the opening price was 2973, the highest price was 3021, the lowest price was 2970, the closing price was 2992, the increase was 42, the increase rate was 1.42%, the trading volume was 224,323, the open interest was 219,525, and the open interest change was 8285. - For the 2605 egg contract, the previous settlement price was 3511, the opening price was 3535, the highest price was 3563, the lowest price was 3531, the closing price was 3550, the increase was 39, the increase rate was 1.11%, the trading volume was 55,015, the open interest was 96,930, and the open interest change was - 3596 [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The 02 contract is in an absolute off - season, with no sign of a trend increase in the spot price, and may weaken again. Bulls can focus on the peak - season contracts in the second or third quarter, and treat the near - and far - month contracts as reverse spreads [8]. 3.2 Industry News - **Inventory**: As of the end of November 2025, the national monthly inventory of laying hens was about 1.352 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.52%, ending the previous continuous increase. Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 5.3%, indicating significant supply - side pressure [9]. - **Replenishment**: In November 2025, the monthly number of egg - laying chicks hatched by sample enterprises was about 39.55 million, slightly higher than that in October. Compared with the same period in 2024, it decreased by 13.5%. The total replenishment from August to November 2025 was about 157.71 million, compared with about 180.11 million in the same period last year [9]. - **Elimination Volume**: From the three weeks up to December 18, the national number of eliminated chickens was 20.82 million, 19.84 million, and 19.67 million respectively, showing a continuous decline [10]. - **Elimination Age**: As of December 18, the average elimination age of chickens was 486 days, the same as the previous week and 6 days earlier than the previous month [10]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the monthly inventory of laying hens in China, egg - laying chicken breeding profits, the average price of the main egg - producing areas, the seasonal trend of egg contracts, the basis of egg contracts, and the price difference between egg contracts. The data sources include Wind, Zhuochuang Information, and Trading Famen [11][14][17]
建信期货集运指数日报-20260106
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-06 02:19
1. Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report - Date: January 6, 2026 - Research Team: Macro Finance Research Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The SCFIS index rebounded 3.1% to 1795.83 points this week. The price increase in mid - to late December was well - implemented. The freight rate in early January was around $2880, and the cargo - booking status was good. The market still has expectations for price increases in late January. The February contract may have some upside potential, but the expectation of the Red Sea resuming navigation after the Spring Festival may heat up, so attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities for the April contract in the off - season and the positive spread trading opportunities between the 02 and 04 contracts [8] 3. Market Review and Operation Suggestions 3.1 Spot Market - The SCFIS index further rose 3.1% to 1795.83 points this week. The price increase in mid - to late December was well - implemented, and the freight rate in early January was maintained at around $2880, with good cargo - booking status. The late - January quotes are concentrated in the range of $2700 - $3100, and there are still expectations for price increases. After the Spring Festival, the expectation of the Red Sea resuming navigation may increase, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities for the April contract in the off - season and the positive spread trading opportunities between the 02 and 04 contracts [8] 3.2 Futures Market | Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | Closing Price | Settlement Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2602 | 1,828.5 | 1,840.0 | 1,855.5 | 1,859.4 | 27.0 | 1.48 | 22903 | 26046 | 1916 | | EC2604 | 1,167.2 | 1,187.8 | 1,198.0 | 1,189.6 | 30.8 | 2.64 | 8562 | 22629 | 1710 | | EC2606 | 1,370.4 | 1,395.0 | 1,389.0 | 1,390.2 | 18.6 | 1.36 | 500 | 2201 | 49 | | EC2608 | 1,496.5 | 1,506.0 | 1,502.3 | 1,503.7 | 5.8 | 0.39 | 127 | 1188 | - 7 | | EC2610 | 1,059.9 | 1,062.4 | 1,082.6 | 1,076.8 | 22.7 | 2.14 | 948 | 6055 | 31 | | EC2612 | 1,300.5 | 1,319.0 | 1,311.9 | 1,315.6 | 11.4 | 0.88 | 21 | 48 | - 10 | [6] 4. Industry News - From December 22 to December 26, 2025, the China Export Container Shipping Market showed a positive trend. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index rose 6.7% to 1656.32 points. The freight rates of European, Mediterranean, and North American routes all increased [9] - In December 2025, many shipping companies such as MSC, CMA CGM, Maersk, and Hapag - Lloyd announced price increases or surcharge adjustments for multiple international routes [9][10] - Military operations in the Middle East continued. The Israeli army killed many Hamas members. The armed militants hiding in the Rafah tunnels were still in direct contact with the Hamas military leadership [10] - The Suez Canal Authority announced that Maersk would resume Red Sea - Suez Canal navigation in early December, but Maersk later stated that it had not determined the specific resumption date [10] 5. Data Overview 5.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices | Date | SCFIS: European Route (Base Ports) | SCFIS: US West Route (Base Ports) | Change | MoM (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026/1/5 | 1795.83 | 1250.12 | 53.19 (European), - 51.29 (US West) | 3.1 (European), - 3.9 (US West) | | 2025/12/29 | 1742.64 | 1301.41 | | | [12] 5.2 Container Shipping Index (European Route) Futures Market - The report provides the trends of the main contract and the second - main contract of container shipping European route futures [18] 5.3 Shipping - Related Data Trends - The report presents data trends in European container ship capacity, global container ship orders on hand, Shanghai - European base port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [18][20]
建信期货沥青日报-20260106
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-06 02:18
行业 沥青日报 日期 2026 年 1 月 6 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 期货从业资格号:F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03134307 二、 行业要闻 能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油沥青) 研究员:任俊弛(PTA、MEG) 研究员:彭浩洲(碳市场工业硅) 研究员:彭婧霖(聚烯烃) 研究员:刘悠然(纸浆) 研究员:冯泽仁(玻璃纯碱) 请阅读正文后 ...
建信期货棉花日报-20260106
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2026-01-06 02:18
Report Information - Report Date: January 6, 2026 [2] - Industry: Cotton [1] - Research Analysts: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Core Viewpoints - Zhengzhou cotton showed a trend of rising on high volume and then falling back. The spot cotton price index of grade 328 was 15,615 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cotton yarn market had average trading, and the cotton fabric market had weak sales [7]. - As of January 4, 2026, the cumulative national cotton inspection was 6.5425 million tons, with a potential increase in the 2025/26 output. The downstream product prices followed the cotton price to strengthen steadily, and the overall inventory pressure was not large. After the short - term speculation on the expected reduction in planting, more positive factors were needed to support the price. The upper integer - level resistance was strong [8]. Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: Zhengzhou cotton rose on high volume and then fell back. The latest grade 328 cotton price index was 15,615 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton. The 2025/26 cotton prices in southern and northern Xinjiang were different, and the basis also varied. The cotton yarn market had average trading, and the cotton fabric market was weak [7]. - Operation Suggestions: In January, attention could be paid to the downstream restocking before the Spring Festival. Fundamentally, the upper integer - level resistance was strong [8]. 2. Industry News - As of January 4, 2026, 1,094 cotton processing enterprises participated in the inspection. The national cumulative inspection was 6.5425 million tons, an increase of 48,000 tons from the previous day. Xinjiang's inspection volume was 6.4656 million tons, and the inland was 43,000 tons [9]. 3. Data Overview - The report presented multiple data charts, including cotton price indices, futures prices, spreads, and inventory data, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [14][16][17]