1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 21, 2025, the LPR quote remained flat, and the Q3 economic data met expectations with a marginal weakening trend. The bond market was mainly suppressed by the stock market's recovery, and most treasury bond futures closed lower. The yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds across all maturities rose, with larger increases in the medium - to long - term. The funds were stable with a marginal convergence. The 10 - year bond market entered a window period after the negative factors were cleared, but lacked a trigger for a counter - attack due to the difficulty of short - term monetary easing and the disturbance of the stock - bond seesaw effect [8][9][10][11][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Conditions**: The LPR quote remained flat, Q3 economic data met expectations and showed a marginal weakening trend. The bond market was mainly suppressed by the stock market's recovery, and most treasury bond futures closed lower [8] - **Interest Rate Bonds**: The yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds across all maturities rose, with the medium - to long - term yields rising by about 2bp. By 16:30 pm, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 was reported at 1.7675%, up 2.25bp [9] - **Funding Market**: The funds were stable with a marginal convergence. There were 253.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities, and the central bank injected 189 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 64.8 billion yuan. The inter - bank fund sentiment index was stable, short - term fund rates fluctuated within a narrow range, the 7 - day rate rose 2.47bp to 1.4332%, and the medium - to long - term funds were stable [10] - **Conclusion**: In October, the bond market entered a window period after the negative factors were cleared, but lacked a counter - attack trigger due to the difficulty of short - term monetary easing. Although the policy orientation of loose money and loose finance remained unchanged, the bond market lacked direct positive stimuli and was disturbed by the stock - bond seesaw effect, so investors needed to wait patiently for a counter - attack opportunity [11][12] 3.2 Industry News - On October 18, Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held a video call, agreeing to hold a new round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations as soon as possible. US President Trump continued to send conciliatory signals, and the Trump administration was quietly relaxing multiple tariff policies [13] - Multiple experts expected the LPR quotes for both tenors in October to remain flat. Analysts expected a downward adjustment space for subsequent policy rates and LPR quotes. Central Bank Governor Pan Gongsheng said that China would continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The opening ceremony of the 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference was scheduled for October 27, and relevant leaders would attend and make speeches [14] 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The report presented data on treasury bond futures trading on October 20, including contract information such as opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change. It also mentioned the inter - maturity spread and inter - variety spread of the main treasury bond futures contracts, as well as the trend of the main contracts [6] - **Money Market**: The report showed the term structure change and trend of SHIBOR, as well as the change in the weighted inter - bank pledged repurchase rate and the inter - bank pledged repurchase rate [29][33] - **Derivatives Market**: The report presented the Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) and the FR007 interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) [35]

021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 行业 豆粕 日期 2025 年 10 月 21 日 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 ...

Group 1: General Information - Report industry: Cotton [1] - Report date: October 21, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Zhengzhou cotton rebounded. The latest 328 - grade cotton price index was 14,679 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The mainstream quoted price of 2025/26 northern Xinjiang machine - picked cotton was around 14,500 - 14,600 yuan. Some cotton merchants slightly lowered the basis after the rise of Zhengzhou cotton last week [7]. - The trading of pure cotton yarn changed little. Benefiting from the recent sharp cooling in the areas south of the Yangtze River, downstream consumption slightly recovered. Downstream enterprises still mainly purchased on a "use - as - you - go" basis, and the scale of new orders was limited. The opening rate of spinning mills slightly rebounded but was still lower than the same period of previous years. The price of the pure cotton cloth market was stable and weak, and fabric mills maintained a slight loss [7]. - In the overseas market, due to the 19 - day government shutdown in the US, the available reference data was limited, and the external market was mainly driven by the domestic market sentiment. In the domestic market, affected by the lower - than - expected increase in production in the main producing areas, the purchase price of seed cotton continued to rise steadily, supporting the rebound of the futures price. As of October 16, the national new cotton picking progress was 58.8%, 4.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year. In September, China imported 100,000 tons of cotton, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 20,000 tons. The downstream terminal demand slightly recovered, but the characteristic of "off - peak in peak season" still existed. Domestic consumption performed better than exports, with the retail sales of textile and clothing in September increasing by 4.7% year - on - year. The hedging pressure above during the peak period of new cotton listing and processing still needed to be consumed. In the short term, Zhengzhou cotton will mainly fluctuate in a wide range. Pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [8]. Group 3: Industry News - In September 2025, China imported 100,000 tons of cotton, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 20,000 tons. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import of cotton was 680,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6 million tons [9]. - In September 2025, the income from clothing, footwear, and knitted textiles in China was 123.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative income from clothing, footwear, and knitted textiles in China was 1.0613 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%, and the growth rate increased by 0.2 percentage points compared with the previous month [9]. Group 4: Data Overview - The report includes multiple data charts such as CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, China cotton price index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, etc., with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [14][16][17]

Report Information - Report Name: Soda Ash, Glass Daily Report [1] - Date: October 21, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The soda ash market has a weak supply - demand pattern with supply affected by equipment maintenance, downstream low - price restocking, and insufficient fundamental drivers. The market supply - demand imbalance persists. The contract shows signs of bottom - building and is expected to oscillate weakly [8]. - The glass market is in a weak supply - demand balance. The post - festival factory inventory remains high, and the demand for float glass may not continue to rise. The market may experience a second bottom - testing, but excessive short - selling is not advisable. Attention should be paid to potential positive factors from policies and production line changes [9][10]. Summary by Directory 1. Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions Soda Ash - **Market Data**: On October 21, the main soda ash futures SA601 contract oscillated. The closing price was 1,219 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 36,196 lots [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Weekly production decreased by 30,300 tons to 740,500 tons, a 3.93% week - on - week decline. The alkali plant inventory reached 1.705 million tons, at a low level in the past six months. The total shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises at the end of September was 881,000 tons, a 11.86% increase from the previous period. The demand for heavy soda ash changed little [8]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate weakly due to the lack of substantial positive factors [8]. Glass - **Market Data**: On October 21, FG601 closed at 1,091 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan or 2.41%; FG603 closed at 1,161 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan or 2.27% [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Float glass production was stable, and the photovoltaic glass was in a weak balance. The overall glass supply was at a high level this year. The post - festival factory inventory remained high, and the real - estate market showed no signs of stabilization [9]. - **Outlook**: The market may experience a second bottom - testing, but attention should be paid to potential positive factors from policies and production line changes [9][10]. 2. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts including soda ash weekly production, soda ash enterprise inventory, soda ash active contract price trend, glass active contract price trend, central China heavy soda market price, and flat glass production, with data sources from Wind, iFind, and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [14][16][20]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply and demand of live pigs are both increasing, but the supply growth rate is still relatively large, resulting in a relatively loose supply - demand situation. However, currently driven by the active replenishment demand of secondary fattening, the supply has decreased temporarily, and the spot price shows an oscillating rebound. The supply of live pigs before the Spring Festival is expected to maintain a slight increase, and the 2601 contract may rebound under the drive of the spot market. Attention should be paid to the sustainability and volume of secondary fattening replenishment in the later stage [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 20th, the main 2601 contract of live pigs opened slightly higher and then fluctuated upwards, closing with a positive line. The highest price was 12,280 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,800 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 12,155 yuan/ton, up 2.88% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index decreased by 9,613 lots to 290,797 lots [7]. - **Spot Market**: On the 20th, the average price of ternary live pigs nationwide was 11.27 yuan/kg, up 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous day [7]. - **Supply - side**: According to the sample data of Yongyi, the planned live pig slaughter volume of sample enterprises in October increased by 5.14% compared with the actual slaughter volume in September, and the slaughter volume may continue to increase significantly. The slaughter weight increases seasonally and slightly. In the long term, the live pig slaughter volume is expected to maintain a slight increase until the first half of next year [8]. - **Demand - side**: Currently, secondary fattening has high replenishment enthusiasm due to low meat - making costs, an expanding price difference between fat and standard pigs, and low pen utilization rates. As the weather in the south turns cold rapidly, terminal consumer demand may continue to rise, and the orders of slaughtering enterprises have slightly increased, with the slaughtering rate and volume increasing slightly. On October 20th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 164,600 heads, a decrease of 1,900 heads from the previous day, an increase of 5,400 heads week - on - week, and an increase of 12,600 heads month - on - month [8]. 3.2 Industry News - On October 16th, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising live pigs was - 188.5 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 111 yuan/head; the average profit per head of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 432.2 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 112 yuan/head [9][11]. 3.3 Data Overview - **15kg Piglet Price**: In the week of October 16th, the average market sales price of 15kg piglets was 265 yuan/head, a decrease of 17 yuan/head from the previous week [13]. - **Price Difference between Fat and Standard Pigs**: In the week of October 16th, the price difference between 175 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.60 yuan/jin, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 yuan/jin [13]. - **Fattening Cost**: The cost of fattening from 110 kg to 140 kg this week was 11.63 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous week; the cost of fattening from 125 kg to 150 kg was 11.95 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.04 yuan/kg from the previous week [13]. - **Average Slaughter Weight**: As of the week of October 16th, the average slaughter weight of live pigs nationwide was 128.25 kg, a decrease of 0.23 kg from the previous week (a week - on - week decrease of 0.18%), a decrease of 0.20 kg from the previous month (a month - on - month decrease of 0.16%), and an increase of 1.91 kg compared with the same period last year (a year - on - year increase of 1.51%) [13]. - **Slaughtering Enterprise Operating Rate**: In the week of October 16th, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises was 32.38%, a decrease of 2.15 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 5.07 percentage points year - on - year. The operating rate of enterprises fluctuated in the range of 30.95 - 34.44% during the week, and the enterprise operation was slowly rising [13].

Group 1: General Information - Report Title: Crude Oil Daily [1] - Report Date: October 21, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team, including researchers for different sectors such as crude oil asphalt, PTA, MEG, etc. [4] Group 2: Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. Group 3: Core View - The supply side shows that OPEC+ production is basically within the quota, but there is still room for growth in the future. Non - OPEC+ countries will also contribute a large amount of supply, resulting in significant supply pressure. The demand side sees IEA and EIA slightly raising demand expectations in their monthly reports, but the demand increase is far lower than the supply. The inventory accumulation speed accelerates in the fourth quarter of this year. Overall, both the macro and supply - demand aspects are bearish. Crude oil should be treated with a bearish mindset, and reverse arbitrage can be considered [6]. Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: - WTI: Opened at $57.03, closed at $57.25, with a high of $57.32, a low of $56.15, a rise of 0.46%, and a trading volume of 35.94 million hands. - Brent: Opened at $60.73, closed at $61.16, with a high of $61.25, a low of $59.99, a rise of 0.61%, and a trading volume of 31.54 million hands. - SC: Opened at 438.6 yuan/barrel, closed at 435.8 yuan/barrel, with a high of 441.9 yuan/barrel, a low of 435.5 yuan/barrel, a decline of 0.86%, and a trading volume of 9.3 million hands [6]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Treat crude oil with a bearish mindset and consider reverse arbitrage [6]. Group 5: Industry News - US President Trump said that if India does not limit its purchase of Russian oil, it will continue to pay "huge" tariffs [7]. - Israeli media reported on October 19 that Israeli senior officials expect the Israeli Air Force to conduct more strikes in the Gaza Strip [7]. - Indian media reported on the 17th that due to increased domestic market demand, India's oil imports from Russia rebounded in the first half of October. The average daily import in the first half of October was about 1.8 million barrels, about 250,000 barrels more than the daily average in September [7]. Group 6: Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts including global high - frequency crude oil inventory, EIA crude oil inventory, US crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption [9][10][17][21].

1. Report Information - **Report Title**: Non - ferrous Metals Weekly Report [1] - **Date**: October 17, 2025 [2] - **Researcher**: Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei, Peng Jinglin [3][4] 2. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 3. Core Views - Copper is expected to show a volatile and upward - trending pattern due to strong fundamentals and macro uncertainties [8]. - Lithium carbonate is predicted to fluctuate around 75,000 yuan, with short - term supply - demand balance and continued inventory reduction, but facing increasing macro risks [25]. - Aluminum is likely to remain high - level volatile, affected by macro emotions and the contradiction between strong expectations and weak reality, with the import window closed [41][45]. - Nickel will continue to move in a range - bound pattern, with the fundamental surplus of primary nickel unchanged and the price under pressure, supported at the 120,000 - yuan level [74][79]. - Zinc will operate with a weak and volatile trend, showing an external - strong and internal - weak pattern, with overseas low - inventory providing support and domestic weak fundamentals restricting the rebound [104][105]. 4. Summary by Metal Copper 4.1.1 Market Review - The main contract of Shanghai copper traded between 82,300 and 86,830 yuan, with total positions decreasing by about 5.5% to 546,000 lots. The price rebounded after hitting the bottom, affected by Sino - US economic and trade frictions and market sentiment [7]. - LME copper traded between 10,463 and 10,864.5 US dollars. As of October 10, the net long positions of funds increased by about 5% to 59,179 lots [7]. 4.1.2 Operation Suggestion - Copper prices will continue to be supported by fundamentals but face increasing macro uncertainties, and are expected to show a volatile and upward - trending pattern next week [8]. 4.1.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Copper ore processing fees are in a deeper inversion. The inventory of copper concentrates at seven ports increased, and the import of copper concentrates and its ores in August 2025 increased. The production of electrolytic copper in September decreased significantly, and it is expected to continue to decline in October [11][13]. - **Demand**: The weekly开工 rate of scrap copper rods and refined copper rods increased. The开工 rate of wire and cable and enameled wire also rose, but the new orders of enameled wire have not fully recovered [15][17]. - **Spot**: Domestic copper inventories increased by 1.84 to 275,000 tons, and the inventory in bonded areas increased by 0.72 to 97,700 tons. LME + COMEX inventories increased by 2,701 tons to 450,000 tons [18]. Lithium Carbonate 4.2.1 Market Review - The futures price of lithium carbonate decreased, with the main contract trading between 71,800 and 76,840 yuan, and total positions increasing by 10.7% to 755,000 lots. The spot price of lithium carbonate moved up, and the market trading activity was flat [24]. 4.2.2 Operation Suggestion - The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to continue to grow, and the demand shows obvious peak - season characteristics. The fundamentals support lithium carbonate, but considering the increasing macro risks, the main contract is expected to fluctuate around 75,000 yuan [25]. 4.2.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: The weekly production of lithium carbonate reached a new high of 21,066 tons, and the production from various raw material sources increased. The cost of producing lithium carbonate from lithium spodumene and lithium mica increased [25][30]. - **Demand**: The prices of ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, and lithium cobalt oxide increased. The price of battery cells also moved up, and the demand in the battery field is growing [31][34]. - **Spot**: The difference between electric - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is at a low level, and the inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 2,143 tons to 132,658 tons [35][36]. Aluminum 4.3.1 Market Review - Aluminum prices first declined and then rebounded, maintaining a high - level volatile pattern, mainly affected by macro emotions. The futures price of alumina followed the sector down, and the price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated. The inventory in the peak season continued to decline [41]. 4.3.2 Operation Suggestion - Wait for the callback to buy, and pay attention to controlling risks. The price of domestic bauxite is expected to remain stable, the price of alumina is under pressure, and the price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to follow the high - level volatility of Shanghai aluminum [45]. 4.3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Bauxite**: The domestic bauxite market is stable, with supply being temporarily tight in some areas. The price of imported bauxite continues to decline [46][47]. - **Alumina**: The price of alumina continues to fall, with an oversupply situation. The domestic operating rate decreased slightly, and the import window is open [49][51]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The profit of the smelting industry remains at a high level. The cost decreased slightly this week, and the profit increased slightly [57]. - **Export**: In August 2025, the export of aluminum profiles increased slightly month - on - month, and the import window of aluminum ingots remained closed [64][65]. - **Processing**: The operating rate of downstream processing leading enterprises remained flat this week, showing a general performance in the peak season [66]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of aluminum ingots decreased slightly [71]. Nickel 4.4.1 Market Review - Shanghai nickel continued to move in a low - level volatile pattern, affected by macro factors. The futures market maintained a contango structure, and the import window remained closed [74]. 4.4.2 Operation Suggestion - Shanghai nickel will continue to move in a range - bound pattern, with the fundamental surplus of primary nickel unchanged. Pay attention to overseas market changes and policy disturbances in Indonesia [79]. 4.4.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Nickel Ore**: The price of Philippine nickel ore remained stable, and the price of Indonesian pyrometallurgical nickel ore increased [80]. - **Nickel Iron**: In September, the production of Indonesian nickel iron increased year - on - year, and the production of domestic nickel iron decreased. The import of nickel iron increased [86][89]. - **Electrolytic Nickel**: The production capacity of electrowinning nickel is rapidly expanding. In September, the production of refined nickel increased slightly, and the downstream demand was less than expected [91][92]. - **Nickel Sulfate**: The price of nickel salts continued to rise this week. In September, the production of nickel sulfate increased month - on - month, and it is expected to continue to increase slightly in October [95][97]. - **Stainless Steel**: The inventory of stainless steel increased this week, and the market demand is weak, with the futures price falling [101]. Zinc 4.5.1 Market Review - The US dollar index continued to weaken, and LME zinc had strong short - term bottom support. Shanghai zinc gave back the post - holiday gains, and the import window has been deeply closed since July [104]. 4.5.2 Operation Suggestion - The zinc market shows an external - strong and internal - weak pattern, and is expected to operate with a weak and volatile trend in the short term. Pay attention to the opportunity of reverse arbitrage and the actual export volume [105]. 4.5.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: The processing fee of domestic zinc ore has peaked and declined. The production of refined zinc in October is expected to increase month - on - month, and the import window remains closed while the export window is approaching to open [115][116]. - **Demand**: The operating rates of galvanized, die - cast zinc alloy, and zinc oxide enterprises increased to some extent, but the terminal demand is still weak [117][118]. - **Spot**: Domestic zinc inventories decreased by 0.04 to 162,700 tons, and LME zinc inventories decreased to less than 40,000 tons [119].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The A - share market is expected to experience continued volatility due to the escalation of Sino - US trade disputes, high valuations in the technology sector, and high uncertainty in end - of - month negotiations. Short - term strategies can include arbitrage (long large - cap blue - chips and short small - cap growth stocks) and reducing positions. Attention can be paid to defensive sectors and policy - beneficial sectors [13]. - The bond market is expected to stabilize in October, but a counter - offensive may require a resurgence of easing expectations. The short - term stock - bond seesaw is significant, and the bond market's safe - haven sentiment is boosted by the frictions in the external environment. The sustainability of the bond market's strength is questionable, and it is advisable to wait patiently for better bond - market allocation opportunities, which may appear in the second half of the fourth quarter [100][110]. - For the shipping index, the spot freight rates are currently falling, but the shipping companies are raising prices for the second half of October and November, and there is an expectation of a price increase in the far - month contracts. The December contract has the opportunity for an oversold correction [130]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Stock Index 3.1.1 Market Review - Since the beginning of the year, the A - share market has shown a trend of short - term correction followed by a strong run, a sharp decline after external shocks and then a rebound and continuous upward movement, and consolidation after the realization of positive news and a stalemate in negotiations. The market has been affected by various factors such as technological trends, economic concerns, trade policies, and policy stimuli [7]. - From October 13 - 17, 2025, the A - share market declined with reduced trading volume. The futures market was generally weaker than the spot market. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate due to Sino - US trade disputes and high valuations in the technology sector [10][13]. 3.1.2 Transaction and Position Analysis - Stock index trading volume increased. The average daily trading volumes of IF, IH, IC, and IM increased compared to the previous week. The overall position of the stock index also increased [14]. 3.1.3 Basis, Inter - period Spread, and Inter - variety Spread Analysis - Basis trends were divergent. The basis of CSI 300 widened, SSE 50 changed from premium to discount, CSI 500 basis widened, and CSI 1000 basis narrowed [18][19]. - The inter - period spreads of IF, IH, IC, and IM all showed negative values and widened. The same was true for the spreads between the current - quarter and the current - month contracts [25]. - Large - cap blue - chips performed relatively better. The ratios of different indices were at different historical percentile levels and changed compared to the previous period [27]. 3.1.4 Industry Sector Overview - In the CSI 300, the financial, energy, and public sectors led the gains, while the information, communication, and pharmaceutical sectors led the losses. In the CSI 500, the energy sector led the gains, and the information, raw material, and industrial sectors led the losses [30][31]. - At the primary industry level, the banking, coal, and food and beverage sectors led the gains, while the electronics, media, and automobile sectors led the losses [32][34]. 3.1.5 Valuation Comparison - As of October 17, 2025, the rolling price - to - earnings ratios of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were at different levels and historical percentile positions [36]. 3.2 Treasury Bonds 3.2.1 This Week's Market Review - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The A - share market's performance affected the bond market. The long - end futures generally outperformed the cash bonds. There were certain positive arbitrage opportunities in each contract, and the basis of 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year bonds was relatively low with potential for upward regression. Due to poor liquidity, it is not recommended to participate in the inter - period strategy of the 2603 contract. A flattening strategy (short short - end and long long - end) can be considered [41][43][58][62]. - **Bond Cash Market**: Most treasury bond spot yields declined this week. A - share adjustments boosted the sentiment of long - term bonds, and long - end yields declined more significantly. US bond yields also declined across the board [71]. - **Funding Situation**: At the beginning of the month, the funding pressure was low, and the central bank mainly conducted net withdrawals. The funding situation returned to a relaxed state, and there was no liquidity stratification between banks and non - banks. Funding rates fluctuated [77][78]. - **Interest Rate Derivatives**: Most yields of interest rate swaps declined this week, and the liquidity expectation was stable [94]. 3.2.2 Market Analysis - **Recent Market Logic**: The bond market is expected to stabilize in October, but a counter - offensive may require a resurgence of easing expectations. The sustainability of the bond market's strength is questionable, and it is advisable to wait patiently for better allocation opportunities [100]. - **This Week's Fundamental Situation**: September's export data was better than expected, but inflation and social financing were still weak. Export growth may face risks in the later period, inflation showed slow recovery, and social financing had both negative and positive signals [101][102]. - **Next Week's Bond Market Outlook**: The short - term stock - bond seesaw is significant, and the bond market's safe - haven sentiment is boosted by the frictions in the external environment. Attention should be paid to next week's economic data [110]. 3.2.3 Next Week's Open - Market Maturities and Important Economic Calendar Next week, there will be a total of 7891 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities in the open market, and there will be important economic data such as September's LPR loan quotes and third - quarter economic data [112]. 3.3 Shipping Index 3.3.1 Market Review The SCFIS continued to decline for 13 consecutive weeks, but shipping companies raised freight rates for the second half of October and November, and China's counter - measures against the US improved the sentiment of far - month contracts [114]. 3.3.2 Container Shipping Market Situation - **Spot Market**: Freight rates on most ocean routes rebounded, and shipping companies raised freight rates for the second half of October and November. Although the full implementation of the price increase may be difficult, a bottom - up trend is likely to form, which is expected to boost the expectations of far - month contracts [120]. - **Supply - Demand Fundamentals of Container Shipping**: On the supply side, the container shipping capacity in Europe in October was at a relatively high level in the off - season, and the potential capacity is expected to continue to grow. The actual capacity decreased slightly, but the supply pressure still exists. The progress of the cease - fire agreement in the Red Sea is uncertain, and it is unlikely to bring additional supply pressure this year. On the demand side, the eurozone's economic indicators showed a slowdown, and the macro - demand continued weak recovery, which may have limited support for container shipping prices [125][126]. 3.3.3 Market Outlook In October, it is the traditional off - season, and the supply pressure still exists. However, shipping companies are raising prices for the end - of - year long - term contract season, and there is an expectation of price increases in far - month contracts. The December contract has the opportunity for an oversold correction [130].

1. Report Industry - The report focuses on the agricultural products industry, specifically covering sub - sectors such as pigs, corn, soybean meal, eggs, and sugar [1] 2. Core Views Pigs - Supply side: Planned pig出栏量 in sample enterprises may continue to increase significantly in October, with large supply pressure. Long - term, pig出栏量 may maintain a slight increase until the first half of next year. - Demand side: Secondary fattening has some replenishment demand, and terminal consumption may increase with cooler weather, but overall incremental demand is limited. - Overall: Spot prices may be volatile and weak, with a slight rebound due to secondary fattening demand. Futures contracts 2511 and 2601 may be weak due to spot weakness and secondary fattening出栏 expectations [56] Corn - Supply side: New crops are expected to increase in yield. With new corn harvest in October, supply increases, and costs decrease. Substitute advantages weaken, and future imports may remain low. - Demand side: Feed demand is good due to growing pig存栏, but inventory - building willingness is low. Deep - processing enterprises have turned profitable, with increased开工 rates and slightly higher inventories. - Overall: Spot prices may be volatile and weak, and futures contracts may oscillate around planting and collection costs [96][97] Soybean Meal - External market: The US government shutdown has led to a lack of information, and the external market may be in low - level oscillation. - Domestic market: High inventory is a reality, but there are potential positive factors such as reduced US soybean imports and potential yield adjustments. It is difficult to form a unilateral trend in the short - to - medium term [101][102] Eggs - Spot: After a sharp decline, prices rebounded slightly, but the rebound height and strength are limited. - Futures: After a sharp decline, they are in low - level oscillation, and overall, they are treated as a rebound with a short - bias. The fundamental inflection point may appear in early next year [136] Sugar - International market: Brazilian production data is slightly higher than expected, and with factors like falling oil prices and real depreciation, sugar prices are prone to fall. - Domestic market: New beet sugar is on the market, imports are expected to be high, and downstream demand is weak. Futures and spot prices are both weak [183][184] 3. Summary by Directory Pigs 1. Market Review - Spot: After the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival, demand declined, prices were weak in the first half of the week, and then rebounded due to factors such as consumption recovery and secondary fattening. The national average pig出栏 price was 11.02 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 7.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 16.20%, and a year - on - year decrease of 38.74%. - Futures: The main contract LH2601 of live hog futures fell, closing at 11905 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.14%, with a basis of - 905 yuan/ton [7][8] 2. Fundamental Overview - Long - term supply: The price of二元 sows may be slightly adjusted. National能繁母猪存栏 shows different trends in different data sources, and theoretical pig出栏量 is estimated accordingly [15][17] - Medium - term supply: The price of 15kg piglets decreased. Sample enterprise小猪存栏 increased, and theoretical pig出栏量 is expected to increase slightly in the medium term [31][32] - Short - term supply: Sample enterprise大猪存栏 increased. The proportion of pigs over 140 kg increased, and the secondary fattening sales ratio increased slightly in early October [33][35] - Current supply: In September, the actual出栏 completion rate was 96.5%, and the planned出栏量 in October may increase by 5.14%. The average出栏 weight decreased slightly. The proportion of small - weight pigs increased slightly, and the proportion of large - weight pigs decreased [40][41] - Import supply: In August, China's pork imports were 80,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 10,000 tons. From January to August 2025, the total import was 710,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.9% [48] - Demand: In early October, secondary fattening had sporadic entries, and the utilization rate of fattening pens decreased. The slaughter enterprise开工 rate was 32.38%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.15 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.07 percentage points [50][52] Corn 1. Market Review - Spot: Corn prices showed a seasonal decline. In the northeast, new corn was concentrated for listing; in the north, prices were weak; in the selling areas, prices oscillated and declined. - Futures: The main contract 2601 of Dalian corn futures rose 10 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.47% [60] 2. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: The national autumn grain harvest progress is slow. As of October 10, the northern port inventory was 930,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 220,000 tons, and the southern port inventory was 387,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 55,000 tons [63] - Domestic substitutes: Wheat prices were oscillating and strengthening. The price difference between corn and wheat was 260 yuan/ton [65] - Import substitute grains: From January to August 2025, China's total grain imports decreased by 19.5% year - on - year. Imports of various grains such as corn, wheat, and barley showed different trends [69][70] - Feed demand: In August 2025, the national industrial feed production was 29.36 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.7% and a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. The average inventory time of sample feed enterprises was 24.44 days, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2% [80][86] - Deep - processing demand: The corn starch enterprise开机率 increased. The national corn processing volume was 581,700 tons, and the starch production was 293,500 tons. The processing profit of starch enterprises improved, and the inventory of deep - processing enterprises increased [89][90] - Supply - demand Balance Sheet: In the 2025/26 season, China's corn production is expected to increase slightly, consumption is basically flat, and imports are reduced by 100 million tons to 6 million tons [94][95] Soybean Meal 1. Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot: Coastal soybean meal prices showed mixed changes, with prices ranging from 2920 to 3020 yuan/ton. - Futures: The external market was in low - level oscillation due to the government shutdown. The domestic market was relatively weak compared to the external market, and it is difficult to form a unilateral trend in the short - to - medium term [100][102] 2. Core Points - Soybean planting: The USDA September report adjusted new - season US soybean planting and production data. The US soybean harvest is in progress, and the Brazilian soybean planting progress is fast [103][105] - US soybean exports: As of September 18, new - season US soybean exports were at a historically low level, and subsequent exports depend on Sino - US agreements [112] - Domestic soybean imports and crushing: As of October 16, the crushing profit was negative. The开机率 and crushing volume are expected to remain high and then decrease in the fourth quarter. September soybean imports increased, and the port inventory will be seasonally reduced in the fourth quarter [117][118] - Soybean meal transactions and inventory: As of October 10, the domestic main oil mill soybean meal inventory decreased by 11.2% week - on - week. Terminal demand is relatively good, and overall demand is positive [125] - Basis and inter - month spread: As of October 16, the basis of the 01 contract increased slightly, and the 11 - 1 spread was - 23, with a change of 6 yuan. The 11 - 1 spread may oscillate weakly in the future [129] - Domestic registered warrants: As of October 16, the domestic soybean meal registered warrants were 43,122 lots, at a relatively high level in the same period [134] Eggs 1. Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot: After a sharp decline, prices rebounded slightly, but the rebound is limited. - Futures: After a sharp decline, they are in low - level oscillation, and are treated as a rebound with a short - bias. The fundamental inflection point may appear in early next year [136] 2. Data Summary - Inventory and replenishment: As of the end of September, the national laying hen inventory was 1.368 billion, a month - on - month increase of 0.2%. In September, the egg - chick hatch volume decreased, and the medium - term inventory may decline slightly [138] - Cost, income, and breeding profit: As of October 16, egg prices, feed costs, and egg - chick prices were at different levels, and the breeding profit was at a historically low level [155] - Culled hens: The culling volume increased recently, the culling age was stable at 499 days, and the culled hen price was at a low level in the same period [163] - Demand, inventory, and pig prices: As of October 16, egg sales were at a low level, inventory was high, and pig prices were at a low level in the same period [171] Sugar 1. Market Review - International market: The raw sugar index fell and then stabilized above 15 cents. Supply pressure and other factors made sugar prices prone to fall. - Domestic market: The Zhengzhou sugar index fell below 5400. New beet sugar was on the market, imports were expected to be high, and downstream demand was weak [183][184] 2. Data Analysis - Spot: Sugar spot prices in Guangxi, Yunnan, and Shandong decreased. The basis of the 01 and 05 contracts increased slightly. - Futures: The 1 - 5 spread changed little, and the number of warrants decreased. - Brazilian production: In the second half of September, Brazilian sugar production was slightly higher than expected. As of October 1, the cumulative production in the 25/26 season showed different trends. - Export and inventory: The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports increased, and the inventory in different ports changed. The inter - period spread between London and New York sugar futures decreased. - Import profit: The import processing profit of raw sugar increased significantly. The non - quota and quota import profits of Brazilian raw sugar increased [187][203]

Group 1: Report General Information - Report name: Carbon Market Weekly Report [2] - Date: October 17, 2025 [2] Group 2: Research Team - Energy and Chemical Research Team includes researchers for different areas such as crude oil and fuel (Li Jie, CFA), PTA/MEG (Ren Junchi), industrial silicon/polycrystalline silicon (Peng Haozhou), polyolefins (Peng Jinglin), and pulp (Liu Youran) [3] Group 3: Carbon Market Weekly Overview - In the third week of October, the national carbon market carbon quota price continued to decline. The weekly price was 53.99 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 7.23% [4] - The expected buying price of national carbon emission allowances (CEA) in October 2025 is 55.39 yuan/ton, the selling price is 60.63 yuan/ton, and the mid - price is 58.00 yuan/ton [4] - The expected buying price of national carbon emission allowances (CEA) in December 2025 is 62.10 yuan/ton, the selling price is 70.45 yuan/ton, and the mid - price is 66.28 yuan/ton [4] - The expected buying price of China Certified Emission Reduction (CCER) in October 2025 is 69.00 yuan/ton, the selling price is 76.83 yuan/ton, and the mid - price is 72.92 yuan/ton [4] Group 4: Market News - On September 24, 2025, at the China Carbon Market Conference, Deputy Minister Li Gao of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment released the "National Carbon Market Development Report (2025)", introducing the progress and achievements of the national carbon market since 2024. The Ministry will speed up the construction of a unified national carbon market, improve the system, expand the coverage, enhance market vitality, enrich trading varieties, and strengthen international cooperation [6] - Minister Huang Runqiu reported on China's work on climate change response, carbon peaking, and carbon neutrality. Although significant achievements have been made, challenges remain in green and low - carbon transformation. Some localities are still blindly launching "two high" (high - energy - consuming and high - polluting) projects, which is contrary to the goal of carbon peaking by 2030 [6]