行业 镍日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 19 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangpin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 图1：机构净持仓 图2：机构多空比 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 镍观点： 18 日沪镍延续反弹，主力 2601 震荡走高，尾盘收涨 1.07%报 113940 元/吨。 8-12%环比上日继续下跌 1 至 885.5 元/镍点，电池级硫酸镍均价较上日持平报 27430 元/吨，产业链价格小幅走弱。最新消息显示，印尼镍矿商协会（APNI）表 示，政府在 2026 年工作计划和预算（RKAB）中提出的镍矿石产量目标约为 2.5 ...

Report Information - Report Name: Pig Daily Report - Date: December 19, 2025 - Industry: Pig [1][2] Investment Rating - No relevant information Core View - The spot market is boosted by the demand for curing and enema, showing a strong and volatile trend. The futures market faces dual supply pressures from the concentrated second - fattening in October and continuous capacity release, which puts pressure on the 01 and 03 contracts. However, due to the large price decline compared to the same period last year and the increasing and more severe northern epidemic recently, the bottom - shock frequency has increased [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 18th, the main 2603 contract of live pigs opened flat and then fluctuated downwards, closing in the red at the end of the session. The highest was 11,470 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,320 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.18% from the previous day. The total index position decreased by 4,480 lots to 357,131 lots [7] - **Spot Market**: On the 18th, the average price of ternary pigs nationwide was 11.67 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.06 yuan/kg from the previous day [7] - **Supply Side**: In the long term, the pig slaughter is expected to maintain a slight growth until next year's first half. The utilization rate of second - fattening pens is slightly higher than the same period last year, increasing the supply pressure before the Spring Festival. In December, the planned slaughter of sample breeding enterprises is 27.72 million heads, with a monthly planned increase of 4.64%. Currently, the overall completion progress of many regional groups is slightly slow, and there is a certain increase in the difficulty of acquisition [8] - **Demand Side**: Currently, second - fattening is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and there may still be a small amount of rolling replenishment demand in December. With the continuous cooling of the weather, the demand for curing and enema is increasing, the terminal consumer demand is rising, and the orders of slaughtering enterprises are increasing, which significantly supports the slaughter volume. On December 18th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 201,900 heads, an increase of 6,900 heads from the previous day, 17,000 heads week - on - week, and 36,000 heads month - on - month [8] - **Policy Side**: China imposes anti - dumping duties on imported related pork and pig by - products from the EU. However, the impact is very limited because the proportion compared to domestic consumption is extremely low [8] 3. Data Overview - **Actual and Planned Slaughter**: In November, the actual slaughter volume of Yongyi sample enterprises was 26.49 million heads, with a completion rate of 99.36%. In December, the planned slaughter is 27.72 million heads, with a monthly planned increase of 4.64% and a daily average increase of 1.27% [13] - **Profit per Head**: As of December 11th, the profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was - 146 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 11.5 yuan/head; the profit per head of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 264 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 5.6 yuan/head [13] - **Cost**: As of December 11th, the expected cost of self - breeding and self - raising was 12.09 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.04 yuan/kg. The cost of purchasing piglets for fattening was affected by both feed prices and piglet prices, and the expected cost after fattening to 125 kg and then slaughtering was 11.41 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.12 yuan/kg [13] - **Slaughter Weight and Proportion**: As of the week of December 11th, the average slaughter weight of pigs was 129.63 kg, a decrease of 0.19 kg from the previous week. The proportion of pigs under 90 kg was 5.43%, an increase of 0.38% from the previous week, and the proportion of pigs over 150 kg was 6.9%, almost the same as the previous week [13]

行业 国债日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 19 日 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | 表1：国债期货12月18日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL2603 | 111.990 | 112.220 | 112.250 | 112.410 | 0.260 | 0.23 | 119192 | 142795 | -1510 | | TL2606 | 112.170 | 112.520 | 112.500 | 112.630 | 0.330 | 0.29 | 8741 | 21207 | 396 | | TL2609 | 112.060 | 112.280 | 112.290 | 112.420 | 0.230 | 0.21 | 101 | 381 | 25 | | T2603 | 108.005 | 107.990 | 108.010 | ...

行业 锌期货日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 19 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3075681 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 每日报告 一、 行情回顾 | 表1：期货市场行情 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位：元/吨 | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变化 | | 沪锌 | 2601 | 23000 | 23030 | 23105 | 22965 | 120 | 0.52 | 52902 | -6324 | | 沪锌 | 2602 | 23030 | 23035 | 23125 | 22975 | 110 | 0.48 | 83725 | 2951 | | 沪锌 | 2603 | 23000 | 23045 | 23130 | 22980 | 105 | 0.46 | 40273 | 1043 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures rose and then fell. After the sentiment of supply - side disturbances faded, the high point of the previous day had obvious suppression. Although the weekly inventory reduction of lithium carbonate slowed down, which was expected to dampen short - term market enthusiasm, the callback space of lithium prices was limited due to the stable price increase trend in the industrial chain [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 (Market Review and Operation Suggestions) - The lithium carbonate futures rose and then fell. The high point of the previous day had strong suppression after supply - side disturbances subsided. The price of electric carbon increased by 500 to 97550, the price of Australian ore increased by 10 to 1340, the price of mica increased by 40 to 2825, the price of ternary increased by 200 - 800, the price of iron - lithium increased by 120, and the price of electrolyte remained flat. The weekly inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 1044 tons to 110425 tons, and the de - stocking intensity continued to slow down [10]. 3.2行业要闻 (Industry News) - The Chilean Copper Commission (Cochilco) reported that although the global lithium carbonate price had risen significantly due to increased supply uncertainty and improved future demand prospects, it was still lower than last year's average. On December 10, the price reached $10,500 per ton, a 13% increase from the end of October. The average price this year was $9306 per ton, 24% lower than the 2024 level. Despite expected oversupply in the market this year and next, prices continued to rise. Lithium prices were expected to recover moderately in 2026, but the resumption of major mines might cause short - term price drops. The consumption of lithium - battery energy storage systems was expected to increase, driving prices up [13]. - BloombergNEF's "2025 Transition Metals Outlook" report stated that lithium supply continued to grow. Supported by new project launches in South America and Africa, the maturity of direct extraction technology, and increased secondary supply, the total lithium carbonate equivalent production capacity might increase from 1.5 million tons in 2025 to 4.4 million tons in 2035. Lithium prices were still low after falling from the peak of $80,000 per ton in 2022, but recent production interruptions and subsidy cuts had led to a slight rebound [13].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: December 19, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Group 3: Core View - The SCFIS index has slightly rebounded and stabilized this week. Shipping companies' price hikes have boosted market sentiment, but the actual online prices of some shipping companies are lower than the price increase notices, which may dampen bullish sentiment. The market may engage in incentive games for the pre - Spring Festival shipping peak, and the spot price may reach a high in early January. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities for the April contract in the off - season and positive spread trading opportunities between the February and April contracts [8]. Group 4: Summary of Each Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot Market: The SCFIS index has slightly rebounded and stabilized this week. Shipping companies continue to raise prices, but the online prices of MSC and Maersk in January are lower than the announced price increase levels, which may dampen bullish sentiment. The spot price may peak in early January, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities for the April contract and positive spread trading opportunities between the February and April contracts [8]. 2. Industry News - From December 8th to 12th, China's export container transportation demand was generally stable. The comprehensive index rose due to the year - end contract signing season. The European, Mediterranean, and North American routes all saw price increases in spot market booking prices. On December 15th, multiple shipping companies announced price increases for multiple international routes. Maersk and Hapag - Lloyd announced increases in peak - season surcharges. There are also some geopolitical news, such as the situation in Gaza and the possible resumption of Maersk's Red Sea - Suez Canal navigation [9][10]. 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index shows that the European route increased by 0.1% from December 8th to 15th, while the US West route decreased by 3.8% [12]. 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market - The trading data of container shipping European line futures on December 18th shows that most contracts had price declines, with different degrees of decline and changes in trading volume and open interest [6]. 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - There are multiple charts showing data related to container shipping, such as container ship capacity in Europe, global container ship orders, Shanghai - Europe basic port freight rates, etc. [13][15][16][20]

Report Information - Report Title: Pulp Daily Report - Report Date: December 19, 2025 [2] 1. Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core观点 - The pulp market has limited fundamental changes. After the December delivery, the market focuses on the new warehouse receipt pricing and is mainly in a state of shock adjustment [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The previous settlement price of the pulp futures contract 05 was 5,478 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 5,500 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 0.40%. The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 4,800 - 6,300 yuan/ton, and the price remained stable compared with the closing price of the previous working day. Among them, the offer price of Arauco's Silver Star in Shandong was 5,550 yuan/ton [7] - Arauco's December pulp export quotes: Silver Star softwood pulp increased by $20/ton to $700/ton; Venus natural pulp remained flat at $620/ton; Star hardwood pulp increased by $20/ton to $570/ton [8] - According to PPPC, in October, the chemical pulp shipments of the world's top 20 pulp - producing countries decreased by 3.5% year - on - year, softwood pulp by 7.1% year - on - year, and hardwood pulp by 1.9% year - on - year. Shipments to the Chinese market decreased significantly [8] - According to UTIPULP data, in November 2025, the European wood pulp inventory was 700,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8% and a year - on - year increase of 6.3%; the European wood pulp consumption was 805,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%. In November 2025, the total pulp import volume was 3.246 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 24% and a year - on - year increase of 15.9%. As of December 18, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports decreased by 1.73% month - on - month [8] - The cultural paper market is mainly driven by rigid demand. Publishing orders continue to be picked up. The inventory of some paper mills has decreased compared with the previous period, and the price has not changed much [8] 3.2 Industry News - On December 17, it was reported that the household tissue consumption characteristic park in Linyi County, Shanxi Province, has achieved a leap - forward improvement from spontaneous agglomeration to cluster development in recent years. The park currently has an annual production capacity of 400,000 tons of high - grade household tissue and 50,000 tons of flushable and degradable non - woven fabrics. The degradable non - woven fabric project fills the technological gap in the province, achieving a virtuous cycle of guaranteed upstream raw material supply and supported downstream market expansion [9] 3.3 Data Overview - Multiple data charts are provided, including import bleached softwood pulp spot price in Shandong, pulp futures price, pulp spot - futures price difference (Shandong Silver Star), softwood - hardwood price difference in Shandong, inter - delivery spread (SP1 - 5, SP5 - 9), warehouse receipt total, domestic main port area pulp inventory, European main port wood pulp inventory, coated paper and offset paper price and price difference, white cardboard and white board paper price and price difference, and US dollar to RMB exchange rate. The data sources are mainly Wind and Zhuochuang Information [15][17][19][24][25][29]

Report Overview - Report Title: Crude Oil Daily - Date: December 19, 2025 - Industry: Energy and Chemicals Report Highlights 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - After the adjustment in the December report, the supply surplus in the fourth quarter of this year has deepened, and the market inventory accumulation speed has accelerated. The inventory accumulation speed will slightly slow down in the first quarter of 2026. Indian state - owned refineries have increased their purchases of Russian oil, and the discount of Russian oil has narrowed. As the US has not taken more actions against Venezuela for the time being, the geopolitical premium has declined, and oil prices will continue to fluctuate weakly [7]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: WTI's opening price was $56.49, closing at $55.07, with a high of $56.54, a low of $54.89, a decline of 2.82%, and a trading volume of 26.98 million lots. Brent's opening price was $60.12, closing at $58.89, with a high of $60.13, a low of $58.53, a decline of 2.84%, and a trading volume of 34.14 million lots. SC's opening price was 427 yuan/barrel, closing at 426.7 yuan/barrel, with a high of 428.4 yuan/barrel, a low of 419.6 yuan/barrel, a decline of 1.27%, and a trading volume of 9.47 million lots [6]. - **News Impact**: Last night, a US journalist reported that Trump might announce cooperation with Venezuela, causing oil prices to surge and basically recover the decline on Tuesday night. However, Trump did not mention Venezuela in his national speech today, and the oil price increase was reversed after the speech. The US has seized Venezuelan oil tankers and continued to pressure Venezuela, with a total of 6 million barrels of Venezuelan crude oil seized. The US plans to seize more Venezuelan oil tankers, which will affect Venezuelan exports to some extent but have limited impact on the total supply unless further measures are taken to restrict Venezuelan exports [6]. 3.2 Industry News - US media reported that if Putin refuses the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, the US will impose new sanctions on Russia's "shadow fleet", and the White House responded that there is no new decision for the time being. - Under the influence of tanker restrictions, Venezuela's oil storage space is about to run out. - According to Politico, the Trump administration is asking the US oil industry whether they are willing to return to Venezuela once Maduro steps down [8]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including global high - frequency crude oil inventory, EIA crude oil inventory, US crude oil production growth rate, Dtd Brent price, WTI spot price, Oman spot price, US gasoline consumption, and US diesel consumption [10][13][21][23].

1. Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report - Date: December 19, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] 2. Market Quotes 2.1 Futures Market Quotes | Variety | Opening Price (yuan/ton) | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Highest Price (yuan/ton) | Lowest Price (yuan/ton) | Change (yuan/ton) | Change Rate | Open Interest | Change in Open Interest | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Plastic 2601 | 6458 | 6433 | 6500 | 6432 | -41 | -0.63% | 105,482 | -13,837 | | Plastic 2605 | 6488 | 6476 | 6545 | 6475 | -35 | -0.54% | 561,776 | 21,649 | | Plastic 2609 | 6514 | 6514 | 6571 | 6513 | -27 | -0.41% | 13,950 | 1,355 | | PP2601 | 6200 | 6202 | 6242 | 6200 | 13 | 0.21% | 142,634 | -23,432 | | PP2605 | 6266 | 6279 | 6312 | 6263 | 28 | 0.45% | 523,495 | 4,001 | | PP2609 | 6299 | 6303 | 6329 | 6297 | 17 | 0.27% | 29,696 | 2,464 | [5] 2.2 Spot Market Quotes - On December 18, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 670,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons (4.29%) from the previous working day. The inventory at the same time last year was 610,000 tons [7]. - Most PE market prices declined. The LLDPE prices in North China, East China, and South China were in the range of 6,390 - 6,670 yuan/ton, 6,430 - 6,900 yuan/ton, and 6,400 - 6,800 yuan/ton respectively [7]. - The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily around 6,000 - 6,030 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The increase in propylene supply and weakening downstream demand led to poor sales for producers, who were more willing to offer discounts. Downstream factories were waiting and purchasing at lower prices, and the market transaction center continued to decline [7]. - The PP market was stable with some increases. The mainstream prices of North China, East China, and South China were in the range of 6,020 - 6,160 yuan/ton, 6,100 - 6,260 yuan/ton, and 6,090 - 6,300 yuan/ton respectively [7]. 3. Market Review and Outlook - L2605 of linear low - density polyethylene opened lower, fluctuated downward during the session, and closed down at 6,476 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton (-0.54%). The trading volume was 420,000 lots, and the open interest increased by 21,649 lots to 561,776 lots. PP2605 closed at 6,279 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan (0.45%), and the open interest increased by 4,001 lots to 523,500 lots [6]. - In December, the impact of plant maintenance losses decreased significantly month - on - month. As maintenance plants restarted as scheduled, the supply pressure increased month - on - month. The new production capacity in 2025 was highly likely to be realized, and the planned new production capacity in 2026 was concentrated in the second half of the year. Q1 would be in a period of no new production capacity [6]. - The current spot price is falling, and the weak demand in the off - season is evident. The downstream operating rates of PE mostly decreased, while the PP operating rate remained basically stable. Factories were mainly digesting existing inventories as the previously purchased goods were still being delivered [6]. - Geopolitical factors were mixed, crude oil prices were under pressure and declined, and the center of the plastics and chemicals market was dragged down. The current market sentiment was bearish, and polyolefins were operating weakly at the bottom [6]. 4. Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts including L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year change rate. The data sources are Wind and Zhuochuang Information, as well as the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [9][15][17]

Report Overview - Report Date: December 19, 2025 [2] - Industry: Cotton [1] - Research Analysts: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Zhengzhou cotton is under pressure and adjusting. The overall trend remains strong in the short - term despite the pressure - level game. The overseas market shows limited adjustments in the US cotton situation, while the domestic cotton market has limited fundamental changes [7][8]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operational Suggestions - **Domestic Spot Market**: The latest 328 - grade cotton price index is 15,139 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The transaction price of machine - picked cotton in northern and southern Xinjiang for the 2025/26 season is around 14,750 yuan on a legal weight basis. The same - quality low - basis transaction basis is at CF01 + 800 - 900, and many basis quotes are still at 900 and above [7]. - **Cotton Yarn Market**: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is average, with few new orders. Only high - count yarns are selling well. The prices of pure - cotton yarns are temporarily stable, but some large factories are offering significant discounts to clear inventory. Xinjiang textile enterprises are barely making a profit, while inland textile enterprises continue to lose money [7]. - **Cotton Fabric Market**: The trading in the pure - cotton fabric market has slightly improved in some areas but remains dull overall. Factories report that order varieties are being re - ordered quickly, but the increase in shipments is limited [7]. - **Overseas Market**: According to the US Department of Agriculture's December global cotton supply - demand report, both production and consumption are slightly down, and the global ending inventory is slightly increasing. US cotton production is slightly up, and inventory is mainly accumulating. US cotton is in a weak oscillation, and the price difference between domestic and overseas markets is continuously widening [8]. - **Domestic Market**: As of December 17, 2025, the cumulative inspection volume is 5.5878 million tons, an increase of 68,200 tons from the previous day. The commercial inventory is in the seasonal accumulation stage, reaching 4.6836 million tons at the end of November. The demand - side startup has slightly decreased, the profit and cash - flow of textile enterprises have deteriorated marginally, and the finished - product inventory pressure is still not large [8]. 3.2 Industry News - **Import Data**: In November 2025, China imported 120,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 10,000 tons (9.4%). From January to November 2025, the cumulative import of cotton was 890,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.6 million tons (64.0%). In November 2025, China imported 150,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 30,000 tons (20.3%). From January to October 2025, the cumulative import of cotton yarn was 1.33 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 40,000 tons (3.0%) [9]. - **CFTC Position Data**: As of the week ending December 2, the non - commercial long positions of US cotton futures funds were 77,532 (+949) contracts, increasing for the third consecutive week; the short positions were 116,479 (-1758) contracts, changing from an increase to a decrease. The total ICE positions were 283,123 (+3874) contracts, changing from a decrease to an increase. The net long ratio was - 13.8%, a month - on - month increase of 1.2 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.9 percentage points [9]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple figures related to cotton, including cotton futures prices, cotton basis changes, spreads between different cotton futures contracts, cotton commercial and industrial inventories, and exchange rates such as the US dollar against the Chinese yuan and the Indian rupee. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [14][16][20][28][30].