Industry - The industry under research is the egg industry [1] Report Date - The report was published on December 22, 2025 [2] Research Team - The research team consists of Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Investment Rating - No investment rating was provided in the report Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, the spot price of eggs is expected to fluctuate slightly, with neither significant upward nor downward trends. The futures market has already priced in the expected increase in egg prices due to the decline in next year's egg - laying hen inventory. It is recommended that long - position investors wait for the far - month contracts to fully adjust before entering the market and adopt a rolling operation strategy. The near - month contracts may experience low - level fluctuations, awaiting guidance from the spot price increase in January [8] Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: On the reporting day, the national egg price remained stable. The average price in the main production areas was 3.05 yuan per catty, unchanged from the previous day, and the average price in the main sales areas was 3.32 yuan per catty, also unchanged. The 01 contract rose 0.26%. The 2601 contract closed at 3077, up 8 or 0.26%; the 2602 contract closed at 2886, down 30 or - 1.03%; the 2603 contract closed at 2946, down 35 or - 1.17% [7] - **Operation Suggestions**: Wait for the far - month contracts to fully adjust before entering the market with long positions and use a rolling operation strategy. The near - month contracts may experience low - level fluctuations, waiting for the spot price increase in January to guide them [8] 2. Industry News - **Inventory**: As of the end of November 2025, the national monthly inventory of laying hens was about 1.352 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.52%, ending the previous continuous growth. However, it was still 5.3% higher than the same period last year, indicating significant supply - side pressure [9] - **Replenishment**: In November 2025, the monthly output of laying hen chicks from sample enterprises was about 39.55 million, slightly higher than 39.15 million in October but 13.5% lower than the same period in 2024. The total replenishment from August to November 2025 was about 157.71 million, compared with about 180.11 million in the same period last year [9] 3. Data Overview - **Elimination Volume**: As of December 18, the national chicken culling volume in the previous three weeks was 20.82 million, 19.84 million, and 19.67 million respectively, showing a continuous downward trend [17] - **Elimination Age**: As of December 18, the average age of culled chickens was 486 days, unchanged from the previous week but 6 days earlier than the previous month [17]

1. Industry - The report focuses on the soybean meal industry [1] 2. Date - The report is dated December 22, 2025 [2] 3. Research Team - The agricultural product research team consists of Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] 4. Market Review 4.1 Futures Contract Quotes - For the soybean meal 2601 contract, the previous settlement price was 3054, opening at 3049, reaching a high of 3052, a low of 3022, and closing at 3043, down 11 or -0.36%. The trading volume was 216,053, the open interest was 298,537, with a decrease of 88,955 [6] - For the soybean meal 2603 contract, the previous settlement price was 3007, opening at 3008, reaching a high of 3011, a low of 2992, and closing at 3006, down 1 or -0.03%. The trading volume was 103,015, the open interest was 644,846, with a decrease of 4,047 [6] - For the soybean meal 2605 contract, the previous settlement price was 2745, opening at 2745, reaching a high of 2748, a low of 2726, and closing at 2735, down 10 or -0.36%. The trading volume was 645,772, the open interest was 2,116,090, with a decrease of 1,374 [6] 4.2 External Market Situation - The US soybean futures contract on the external market declined, with the main contract approaching 1060 cents. The main US soybean contract on the external market continued to fall this week, dropping to 1060 cents [6] - The market is mainly focused on US soybean exports and the performance of new crops in South America. As of mid - December, China has purchased over 7.65 million tons of US soybeans, and it is not difficult to complete the previously claimed 12 million tons of purchases. However, other countries have reduced their purchases of US soybeans and shifted more to Brazil, resulting in US soybean export sales being nearly 40% lower than the same period last year [6] - In South America, the new crop situation is generally bearish. Brazilian soybeans are gradually entering the critical growing period, with sufficient rainfall in most major producing states, and the expected rainfall in the main producing areas in the next two weeks is still abundant. If this trend continues after January, Brazil is likely to have a bumper harvest. In Argentina, although it was dry in the early stage, it is still in the late sowing period, not yet in the critical weather - sensitive growth stage, and the rainfall has improved in the next two weeks [6] 4.3 Domestic Market Situation - The increase in the frequency of auctions makes it difficult for the domestic soybean meal spot market to be in short supply, and the current soybean inventory at ports is still at a relatively high level, with overall limited bullish factors. In the short term, domestic soybean meal futures are expected to be weaker than the external market and may have a need to catch up with the decline. Potential bullish factors include changes in South American weather and USDA's output adjustment in January, but there is currently no driving force [6] 5. Industry News - In the 2025/26 season, the soybean planting area in Rio Grande do Sul, a major oilseed - producing state in Brazil, has reached 76% of the estimated 6.74 million hectares, lower than 80% in the same period last year and the historical average of 84% due to dry weather during the planting period. However, the average yield per unit area is still expected to be 3180 kg/ha, a significant increase compared to the drought - affected previous year of 2009 kg/ha [7][9] - As of December 11, 2025, the soybean planting rate in Argentina in the 2025/26 season was 58%, up from 49% last week and lower than 66% in the same period last year [9] 6. Data Overview - The report provides data on various aspects such as the spread between soybean meal contracts, exchange rates, and prices, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [11][13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For copper, the fundamentals support the copper price. The previous macro - negative factors suppressing the market sentiment are coming to an end, and it is expected that the copper price will break through the recent oscillation range upwards [7]. - For lithium carbonate, there is an expected difference on the supply side, and the demand side is slightly slowing down. It is expected that the de - stocking intensity of lithium carbonate will stop falling and rise, and the lithium carbonate futures are likely to rise rather than fall [23]. - For aluminum, currently, the fundamentals have limited driving force for the aluminum price, and the market continues to be dominated by macro - logic. The aluminum price will maintain a high - level oscillation [40]. - For nickel, after the continuous decline of Shanghai nickel, it touches the cost support of MHP integration. Coincidentally, the news of Indonesia's RKAB quota reduction and the revision of the nickel reference price HPM stirs up the price to rebound at a low level. It is necessary to pay attention to the progress of relevant news, and it is expected to continuously give upward elasticity to the nickel price before the news is finalized [76]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper 3.1.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, the main contract of Shanghai copper oscillated at a high level. The total position decreased by 2.3% to 631,900 lots compared with last week. The spot premium of domestic copper shifted downwards and turned to a discount of 160 on Friday. The LME copper also oscillated within a certain range. Overseas funds' enthusiasm for going long has declined recently [7]. - In terms of operation suggestions, on the supply side, the supply pressure of domestic refined copper is limited. On the demand side, although the high copper price still suppresses the downstream procurement sentiment, the downstream's acceptance of the copper price has improved marginally. With the end of the major central banks' interest - rate meetings and the improvement of the macro - situation, it is expected that the copper price will break through the recent oscillation range upwards [7]. 3.1.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply Side**: The inversion of copper concentrate processing fees has intensified. The inventory of copper concentrates at seven ports has decreased. The domestic cold - material processing fees remain stable, but the supply pressure at the raw - material end has not been alleviated. The by - product sulfuric acid revenue continues to rise, and the electrolytic copper production in December is expected to increase [10][11][13]. - **Demand Side**: The weekly operating rates of waste copper rods and refined copper rods have decreased. The weekly operating rates of wire and cable and enameled wire have only slightly increased. The downstream demand is weak, but there is still room for improvement [14][15][16]. - **Spot Side**: The domestic inventory has increased by 0.60 to 24.24 million tons, and the bonded - area inventory has decreased by 0.09 to 7.66 million tons. The LME + COMEX market has increased its inventory by 13,895 tons to 58.1 million tons. It is expected that the market will show a pattern of "supply contraction and weak consumption" next week, and the inventory will decrease [18]. Lithium Carbonate 3.2.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, the futures price of lithium carbonate showed an upward trend. The total position increased slightly by 1.0% to 1.07 million lots. The spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate shifted upwards slightly. The inventory decreased by 1,044 tons to 110,425 tons, and the cost support has been marginally enhanced [22]. - In terms of operation suggestions, on the supply side, the supply pressure has slowed down, which supports the short - term lithium price. On the demand side, the output of cathode materials has declined for three consecutive weeks, but the overall demand has not significantly stalled. It is expected that the de - stocking intensity of lithium carbonate will stop falling and rise, and the lithium carbonate futures are likely to rise rather than fall [23]. 3.2.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply Side**: The price trend of lithium ore is differentiated. The weekly output of lithium carbonate has increased. The production cost has risen due to the increase in the prices of lithium辉石 and lithium mica [26][27]. - **Demand Side**: The prices of ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, and lithium cobaltate have all increased. The demand in the domestic power and consumer markets has declined, but the energy - storage demand remains highly prosperous [28][29][30]. - **Spot Side**: The difference between electric - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is at a low level, and the spot discount to the main contract has deepened. The lithium carbonate inventory has decreased by 1,044 tons to 110,425 tons [32][33]. Aluminum 3.3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, Shanghai aluminum continued to oscillate at a high level, mainly driven by macro - logic. Alumina first rose and then fell, and cast aluminum alloy followed the rhythm of Shanghai aluminum. The inventory decreased, and the import window remained closed [38]. - In terms of operation suggestions, the prices of bauxite at home and abroad are under downward pressure. Alumina is still in a weak position at a low level. Aluminum alloy is expected to follow the rhythm of Shanghai aluminum. The supply pressure of electrolytic aluminum is limited, and the demand has certain resilience. Overall, the aluminum price will maintain a high - level oscillation [40]. 3.3.2 Fundamental Changes - **Bauxite Market**: The price of domestic northern bauxite has decreased, and that of southern bauxite has remained stable. The price of imported bauxite is under downward pressure due to high shipping volume and project resumption [41][42]. - **Alumina**: The futures price rebounded at the bottom this week, but the spot price was still low, and the import window remained open [45][46]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The profit of the smelting industry remains at a high level. The cost has decreased, and the profit has also decreased slightly [51]. - **Exports and Imports**: In October, the export of aluminum cables increased, and the import window of aluminum ingots remained closed [60]. - **Demand**: The weekly operating rate of leading aluminum - processing enterprises has continued to decline, showing a weak operation in the off - season [64]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in the domestic mainstream consumption areas has decreased, and the inventory of aluminum rods has increased slightly [69]. Nickel 3.4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, the nickel price first fell to a multi - year low and then rebounded sharply under the influence of news from Indonesia. The spot trading was cold, and the import window remained closed [72]. - In terms of operation suggestions, affected by the news of Indonesia's reduction of nickel ore production targets and the revision of the nickel reference price HPM, the nickel price rebounded at a low level. The industrial chain remains weak, and the inventory is still at a high level. It is necessary to pay attention to the progress of relevant news [76]. 3.4.2 Fundamental Changes - **Nickel Ore Market**: The prices of nickel ore in the Philippines and Indonesia have both decreased. The import of nickel ore in October has decreased significantly, mainly due to the rainy season in the Philippines [77][78]. - **Nickel Iron Market**: In November, the output of nickel pig iron has decreased. In December, the output is expected to continue to decline due to the off - season and production - reduction plans of stainless - steel enterprises. The import of nickel iron in October has decreased slightly but still remains at a high level [84][87]. - **Electrolytic Nickel Market**: The production capacity of electrowon nickel has been rapidly released. In November, the output of refined nickel has decreased [90]. - **Nickel Sulfate Market**: The price of nickel salt has continued to fall this week. In November, the output of nickel sulfate has increased [95][96]. - **Stainless Steel Market**: The inventory of stainless - steel markets in Wuxi and Foshan has decreased this week. Due to the adjustment of export policies, the inventory is being depleted, but the weak downstream demand in the off - season may make the de - stocking difficult to sustain [100].

Report Information - Report Title: Energy and Chemical Weekly Report [1] - Date: December 19, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Views - Crude oil: Short - term fundamentals are neutral, with prices expected to fluctuate. Medium - term supply pressure may lead to price declines. Consider reverse arbitrage [7][8]. - Asphalt: Without obvious drivers, it is expected to continue to fluctuate [29][30]. - Polyester: PTA is expected to run warmly, while ethylene glycol will maintain low - level fluctuations [58][59]. - Short - fiber: Prices may increase due to improved cost support and stalemate in supply and demand [68][70]. - Soda ash: In the short term, the market may continue to grind at the bottom and fluctuate. In the medium - to - long term, adopt a bearish view on rebounds [72][75]. - Polysilicon: Continue to run cautiously and strongly in the short term, with support at around 58,000 yuan/ton [94][95]. - Industrial silicon: The spot price remains stable, and the supply - demand pattern is loose. The price of the 05 contract is expected to move between 8,500 - 9,000 yuan, and a bearish approach should be taken above 9,000 yuan [116][117]. - Rubber: The natural rubber market may show range - bound fluctuations. Pay attention to inventory and downstream开工 rate changes [129][133]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Review and Operation Suggestion** - WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil prices all declined this week. Geopolitical factors and inventory data are neutral. In the short term, prices are expected to fluctuate, and in the medium term, there is downward pressure. Consider reverse arbitrage [7][8]. - **Fundamental Changes** - Geopolitical situation: The US strengthened sanctions on Venezuelan crude oil, affecting about 400,000 barrels per day. Other buyers may increase purchases of other sanctioned oil types [9]. - Inventory data: US crude oil inventories declined, while refined oil inventories increased. The IEA and EIA have different views on supply and demand forecasts, and the supply surplus in the fourth quarter has deepened [10][11]. Asphalt - **Market Review and Operation Suggestion** - The asphalt futures price declined slightly this week. The supply side may see a slight decline in the start - up rate, and the demand side is weak due to cold weather. It is expected to continue to fluctuate [29][30]. - **Fundamental Changes** - Cost side: US sanctions on Venezuelan crude oil have a greater impact on the asphalt market. Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and decline in the medium term [31]. - Spot market: Prices in most regions declined, with sufficient supply in the south and weakening demand in the north [31][32]. - Supply side: The overall start - up rate of asphalt plants declined slightly, but it is expected to rise slightly next week [32]. - Profit side: Production profits increased slightly in the short term but are under pressure in the medium - to - long term [33]. - Demand side: Demand shows regional differentiation, with "stable in the north and weak in the south" [33]. - Inventory side: Factory inventories increased slightly, while social inventories decreased slightly [33]. Polyester - **Market Review and Operation Suggestion** - PTA was weak last week but may run warmly this week. Ethylene glycol prices declined last week and are expected to maintain low - level fluctuations this week [58][59]. - **Main Driving Forces** - Downstream consumption: Demand is expected to be stable this week, and polyester load may increase slightly in the short term but has a seasonal weakening trend [60]. - PTA: Supply may increase slightly this week. PX prices are expected to be firm, and PTA is expected to run warmly [61][62]. - MEG: The start - up rate decreased slightly last week, and port inventories may increase slightly. It is expected to maintain low - level fluctuations [63][64]. Short - fiber - **Market Review and Operation Suggestion** - The price of polyester short - fiber fluctuated narrowly last week and may increase this week due to improved cost support and stalemate in supply and demand [68]. - **Main Driving Forces** - Downstream consumption: The start - up rate of short - fiber downstream yarn mills is expected to weaken, and consumption support is expected to decline [69]. - Short - fiber: The start - up rate was stable last week and is expected to remain so this week. Supply is sufficient, but cost support has improved, so prices may increase [70]. Soda Ash - **Market Review and Operation Suggestion** - The soda ash futures price was weak this week. The supply side is increasing, and the demand side is weak. It is not recommended to go long in the short term, and a bearish view on rebounds should be adopted in the medium - to - long term [72][75]. - **Soda Ash Market Situation** - Supply: The start - up rate and output have increased, and supply pressure is rising. Pay attention to policy changes [76]. - Inventory: The inventory has decreased, but the sustainability is uncertain, and the core contradiction of supply - demand imbalance remains [78][84]. - Spot: The spot price is expected to fluctuate narrowly between 1,200 - 1,300 yuan/ton, with a weak balance in supply and demand [85]. - Downstream: The demand for soda ash is limited due to the weak supply - demand situation of float glass. The photovoltaic glass market is also under pressure [87][88]. Polysilicon - **Polysilicon Market Review and Outlook** - The polysilicon price fluctuated narrowly this week. The futures price showed a bullish pattern, but the short - term spot price increase faces downstream resistance. It is expected to run cautiously and strongly in the short term [94][95]. - **Photovoltaic Industry Fundamentals** - The "polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform" has been established. The prices of some products in the photovoltaic industry chain are strong, but the terminal demand has not recovered [96][98]. Industrial Silicon - **Industrial Silicon Futures Review and Outlook** - The industrial silicon futures price rebounded in a "V" shape this week. The spot price is stable, and the supply - demand pattern is loose. The price of the 05 contract is expected to move between 8,500 - 9,000 yuan [116][117]. - **Industrial Silicon Fundamentals** - Supply: Production has entered a seasonal low, and the output in the southwest has limited room for further decline [118]. - Demand: The demand for polysilicon and organic silicon has decreased, and the supply - demand pattern is loose. Exports are stable [119][120]. - Inventory: The spot inventory is slowly accumulating, and the futures inventory is out of storage [120]. Rubber - **Market Review and Operation Suggestion** - The Shanghai rubber price fluctuated narrowly this week. The supply side is decreasing in China but increasing overseas. The demand side is weak, and the inventory is high. It is expected to show range - bound fluctuations [129][133]. - **Rubber Market Situation** - Supply: Domestic production has decreased, while overseas production is increasing. The supply surplus overseas suppresses the market [135][136]. - Import and Export: The import volume in November increased, and the arrival pressure is high [141]. - Inventory: The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and the social inventory have increased [146]. - Downstream Enterprises: The start - up rate of all - steel tires increased slightly, while that of semi - steel tires decreased slightly. The terminal demand is weak [148][151]. - Terminal Consumption: The automobile production and sales in November increased year - on - year and month - on - month [155].

021-60635736 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3033782 交易咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 交易咨询证书号： Z0023472 报告类型 黑色金属周报 日期 2025 年 12 月 19 日 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 黑色品种研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 请阅读正文后的声明 周度报告 黑色品种策略推荐 | |  | | 黑色品种策略推荐 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表 | 1：黑色品种投资策略（仅供参考） | | | | | 策略 | 标的 | 最新 | 策略 | 主导因素 | | 类型 | | 价格 | 方向 | | | | | | | 政策面对部分钢铁产品实施出口许可证管理但预计对明年钢材 | | | RB2605 单 | 3119 | | 出口影响有限+五大材 ...

类别 宏观贵金属周报 宏观金融研究团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 020-38909340 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 日期 2025 年 12 月 19 日 工业贵金属市场多头氛围浓厚 请阅读正文后的声明 周度报告 一、宏观环境评述 1.1 经济：中国 11 月经济仍然偏弱 由于财政刺激退坡以及基数效应减弱等原因，2025 年 11 月中国经济增长动 能继续偏弱。2025 年 1-11 月份中国城镇固定资产投资累积 44.4 万亿元，累积同 比萎缩 2.6%，萎缩程度较 1-10 月份扩大 0.9 个百分点，主要受国际贸易紧张形 势与国内房地产周期下行的双重影响。其中制造业投资累积同比增长 1.9%，增速 较 1-10 月份放缓 0.8 个百分点，且显 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The risk of a significant adjustment or bear market in the bond market is limited, and the low - interest - rate environment will continue next year. However, short - term policy implementation may be difficult, increasing market volatility. If market sentiment improves, futures may have room to rise. In the short term, the economic slowdown supports the bond market, but the configuration is still cautious [56]. - For the shipping index, the price increase by shipping companies is inconsistent, and the upward space for freight rates is limited. The spot high of freight rates may appear in early January. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities for the April contract in the off - season and positive - spread arbitrage opportunities between the February and April contracts [79]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1国债 3.1.1 This Week's Market Review - **Treasury Futures Market**: The trading data of treasury futures this week shows that different contracts have different price trends and trading volumes. For example, the TL2603 contract closed at 112.25, with a weekly decline of 0.39 and a decline rate of 0.35%. The trading volume was 55,449,100, and the open interest was 142,795. The overall performance of the market was affected by various factors such as economic data and market sentiment [7]. - **Bond Spot Market**: Most spot yields of treasury bonds declined this week. The short - term yields decreased slightly, and the long - term yields first rose and then fell. US bond yields declined across the board due to rising unemployment and falling inflation in the US [34]. - **Funding Situation**: The inter - bank funding situation remained stable and loose this week. The central bank's open - market operations achieved a net withdrawal of 9.1 billion yuan. The funding rates fluctuated, with short - term rates showing some changes and medium - to long - term rates remaining stable [41]. - **Interest Rate Derivatives**: In the interest rate swap market, the yields of swap varieties fluctuated, and the liquidity expectation was stable [49]. 3.1.2 Market Analysis - **Recent Market Logic**: Since mid - year, the domestic economic fundamentals have weakened, and the policy is moderately loose. However, short - term policy implementation is difficult, increasing market volatility. Currently, the bond market is in the process of reasonable pricing, and futures may have room to rise if sentiment improves [56]. - **This Week's Fundamental Situation**: The November national economic activity data released this week was lower than expected, indicating a further slowdown in domestic demand. Industrial production, consumption, and investment all showed signs of slowdown [57][59]. - **Next Week's Bond Market Outlook**: After the release of economic data, attention should be paid to the cross - year funding situation. It is expected that the central bank will continue to support the market, and the liquidity will remain loose, which may support the bond market [61]. 3.1.3 Next Week's Open - Market Maturities and Important Economic Calendar - Next week, there will be 87.75 billion yuan of open - market maturities, including reverse repurchases and MLF. The LPR quote will be announced on Monday [63]. 3.2 Shipping Index 3.2.1 Market Review - Shipping companies announced price increases, but the online opening prices were lower than expected. The EC futures first rose and then fell. For example, the MSC announced a price increase for January, but the actual online opening price was lower than the announced price, which dampened market sentiment [64]. 3.2.2 Container Shipping Market Situation - **Spot Market**: During the year - end contract signing season, freight rates on most ocean routes increased, especially on the European and US routes. Shipping companies announced price increases for January, but the actual opening prices were lower than the announced ones. It is expected that the spot high may appear in early January [70][71]. - **Container Shipping Supply - Demand Fundamentals**: On the supply side, the European container capacity in December is at a relatively high level in the off - season. The potential capacity is expected to increase with the delivery of new ships. The actual capacity is tight in the first half of December and will return in the second half. The possibility of full resumption of navigation in the Red Sea in the first quarter of next year is low, but if the cease - fire is stable, there is a high probability of gradual resumption. On the demand side, the European demand is expected to improve slowly, and the boost to container shipping prices may be limited [76][77]. 3.2.3 Market Outlook - The price increase by shipping companies is inconsistent. Considering the return of capacity in January and the attempt to resume navigation in the Red Sea, the upward space for freight rates is limited. The spot high of freight rates may appear in early January. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities for the April contract in the off - season and positive - spread arbitrage opportunities between the February and April contracts [79].

1. Report Industry and Date - The report focuses on the agricultural products industry, dated December 19, 2025 [1] 2. Researcher Information - The researchers include Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, and Youran Liu, with their respective contact information and futures qualification numbers provided [3][4] 3. Fats and Oils 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, the three major fats and oils fell significantly, with rapeseed oil having the largest decline. The 2025/26 global rapeseed supply - demand situation is characterized by record - high production, shrinking trade, and rising inventories. USDA raised the 2025/26 global rapeseed production by 3 million tons to 95.27 million tons, an 11% increase from the previous year. Due to China's policies, Canadian rapeseed exports have plummeted, and domestic rapeseed oil has a strong basis in the long - term but a bearish fundamental outlook [8]. - Palm oil production in the producing areas has been good this year. In the first quarter of 2026, production will slow down, and it faces de - stocking pressure. High - frequency data shows a 15.9% - 16.4% decline in Malaysia's palm oil exports in the first half of December. Higher - than - expected palm oil inventories will suppress prices [9]. - Soybean oil futures are also falling, mainly depending on the cost of imported soybeans. With rising US inventories and expected high yields in Brazil, CBOT soybean prices will be under pressure. The current high volume of imported soybeans in China restricts the upside space of soybean oil [9]. - The fats and oils market is expected to continue to bottom out. Wait for the bottom pattern to appear before deploying long positions, and be cautious about the rebound amplitude [10]. 3.2 Core Points 3.2.1 Domestic Spot Changes - As of December 19, 2025, the price of Grade 1 soybean oil in East China was 8,240 yuan/ton, down 360 yuan weekly, and the basis fell 60 yuan; Grade 3 rapeseed oil in East China was 9,350 yuan/ton, down 700 yuan weekly, and the basis fell 100 yuan; 24 - degree palm oil in South China was 8,250 yuan/ton, down 330 yuan weekly, and the basis remained unchanged [11]. 3.2.2 Domestic Inventories of the Three Major Fats and Oils - As of the end of the 50th week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 2.3113 million tons, a weekly decrease of 118,100 tons, a 4.86% month - on - month decrease, and an 8.45% year - on - year increase. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 1.3432 million tons, down 58,400 tons weekly; edible palm oil inventory was 584,200 tons, down 38,000 tons weekly; rapeseed oil inventory was 383,900 tons, down 21,700 tons weekly [19]. 3.2.3 Domestic Supply of Fats, Oils, and Oilseeds - As of the end of the 50th week, the soybean crushing rate of major domestic soybean oil mills increased slightly from last week, with an average crushing rate of 58.32%. The total soybean crushing volume this week was 2.155 million tons. As of the end of December, the cumulative soybean crushing volume was 3.995 million tons [21]. - The inventory of imported soybeans at domestic ports is about 8.3852 million tons. The estimated arrival volume in December is about 9.484 million tons [22][23]. - As of the end of the 50th week, the crushing rate of imported rapeseed in major domestic oil mills was almost at a standstill. As of the end of December, the cumulative rapeseed crushing volume was 0 tons. The inventory of imported rapeseed at domestic ports is about 60,000 tons [28]. 3.2.4 Palm Oil Dynamics - From December 1 - 15, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 2.97% month - on - month. In November, China's palm oil imports reached 330,000 tons, the highest this year. In January, Malaysia's crude palm oil export tax is set at 9.5%. In December, Indonesia's crude palm oil reference price is expected to be $926.14 per ton, and the export tax is reduced to $74 per ton [30][31]. 3.2.5 CFTC Positions - In the first week of December, speculative funds increased their net long positions in Chicago soybeans and reduced their net short positions in Chicago soybean oil [47] 4. Corn 4.1 Market Review - In the spot market, corn prices decreased slightly this week. In the futures market, as of December 18, the Dalian main contract 2603 closed at 2,190 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton from last week, a 2.06% decline [49]. 4.2 Fundamental Analysis 4.2.1 Corn Supply - This week, the pace of grain sales slowed down. As of now, the grain sales progress is 40%, generally faster than the same period last year. As of December 12, the inventory at northern ports was 1.81 million tons, and at southern ports was 453,000 tons [51][52]. 4.2.2 Domestic Substitutes - This week, wheat prices adjusted weakly. The cost is supported in the short term, but the demand is weak. As of December 18, the national average corn price was 2,304 yuan/ton, and the wheat average price was 2,514 yuan/ton [54]. 4.2.3 Imported Substitute Grains - In November, China imported 10.93 million tons of grain, a 15.3% year - on - year increase. The import of corn, sorghum, and wheat rebounded. The import advantage of other grains has increased, and future imports may increase [55][65]. 4.2.4 Feed Demand - In November 2025, the national industrial feed production was 28.73 million tons, a 1.2% month - on - month decrease and a 2.7% year - on - year increase. As of December 18, the average inventory days of national sample feed enterprises was 29.98 days [66][72]. 4.2.5 Deep - processing Demand - This week, the operating rate of the corn starch industry fluctuated little. As of December 18, the total corn inventory of processing enterprises was 3.24 million tons, a 10.20% increase from last week [74][75]. 4.2.6 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The 2025/26 forecast for Chinese corn remains the same as last month. The planting area is expected to be 44,873 thousand hectares, with a total output of 300 million tons. The consumption is expected to be 299.02 million tons, and the import volume remains at 6 million tons [81] 4.3 Outlook - In the spot market, prices may fluctuate. In the futures market, the 2601/03 contracts are under supply pressure, and prices may fluctuate. It is recommended that spot enterprises replenish stocks appropriately, and futures investors hold long positions [83][84][85] 5. Live Pigs 5.1 Market Review - In the spot market, live pig prices fluctuated upward this week, with an average price of 11.53 yuan/kg, a 2.31% week - on - week increase. In the futures market, as of Thursday, the main contract LH2603 closed at 11,325 yuan/ton, a 0.94% increase from last Thursday [87][88] 5.2 Fundamental Overview 5.2.1 Long - term Supply: Breeding Sows Inventory - As of November, the inventory of breeding sows in sample farms increased slightly month - on - month. Overall, live pig slaughter is expected to increase slightly until the first half of next year [98][99] 5.2.2 Medium - term Supply: Piglet Inventory - This week, the average price of 15 - kg piglets was 306 yuan/head, up 1 yuan/head from last week. As of November, the inventory of small pigs in sample enterprises decreased slightly month - on - month [108][109] 5.2.3 Short - term Supply: Large Pigs Inventory, Hogging, and Reraising - As of November, the inventory of large pigs in sample enterprises decreased month - on - month. The proportion of large pigs over 140 kg increased in November. In December, live pig slaughter is expected to increase month - on - month, and decrease in January next year [112][113] 5.2.4 Current Supply: Commercial Pig Slaughter Volume and Average Slaughter Weight - In November, the actual slaughter volume of sample enterprises was 26.49 million heads, and the planned slaughter volume in December is 27.72 million heads. This week, the average slaughter weight was 130.18 kg, up 0.55 kg week - on - week [118][119] 5.2.5 Import Supply: Pork Imports - In October, China imported 60,000 tons of pork. From January to November, the cumulative import volume was 920,000 tons, a 6.1% year - on - year decrease [124] 5.2.6 Reraising Demand - In early December, the enthusiasm for reraising was average. The price difference between 175 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs increased slightly this week, and the reraising cost also increased [127] 5.2.7 Slaughter Demand - This week, the slaughter enterprise operating rate was 39.87%, up 1.33 percentage points from last week. From January to October 2025, the total slaughter volume was 322.88 million heads, a 22.21% year - on - year increase [130] 5.3 Outlook - In the spot market, supply and demand are both increasing, and prices are oscillating strongly. In the futures market, it is recommended that investors wait and see, and breeding enterprises reduce hedging short positions as they slaughter [131][133] 6. Soybean Meal 6.1 Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - In the spot market, as of December 19, the coastal soybean meal price was between 3,060 - 3,140 yuan/ton. In the futures market, the outer - market CBOT soybean price may test the support at 1050 cents. Domestic soybean meal is expected to be weaker than the outer - market in the short term, and it is not advisable for long - position investors to bottom - fish [135][136][137] 6.2 Core Points 6.2.1 Soybean Planting - According to the USDA December report, the new - season US soybean planting area is about 81.1 million acres, and the yield per unit is 53.0 bushels. Brazil's soybean production is expected to reach 175 million tons, and Argentina's is expected to be 48.5 million tons. As of December 13, Brazil's soybean planting rate was 94.1%, and as of December 11, Argentina's was 58% [138][139] 6.2.2 US Soybean Exports - As of the week of November 27, the US 2025/2026 soybean export shipment volume was about 804,000 tons, and the net sales volume was 1.106 million tons. The cumulative sales volume was 21.829 million tons, a 39.4% year - on - year decrease [145] 6.2.3 Domestic Soybean Imports and Crushing - As of December 18, the gross profit of importing and crushing US Gulf soybeans in January was - 465 yuan/ton. As of the week of December 12, the actual operating rate of 111 oil mills was 57.18%. In November, China imported 8.107 million tons of soybeans. It is expected that the port soybean inventory will gradually decrease [154][155][157] 6.2.4 Soybean Meal Transactions and Inventory - As of December 12, the domestic main oil mills' soybean meal inventory was 999,900 tons, a 5.2% month - on - month decrease and a 76% year - on - year increase [161] 6.2.5 Basis and Inter - month Spread - As of December 19, the basis of the soybean meal 01 contract was about 94.14, and the 1 - 5 spread was 308. The 1 - 5 spread or the 3 - 5 spread may be stable and slightly stronger in the future [166] 6.2.6 Domestic Registered Warehouse Receipts - As of December 18, the domestic soybean meal registered warehouse receipts were 23,830 lots, at a historically high level for the same period [170] 7. Eggs 7.1 Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, the egg spot price stabilized at a low level and then rose slightly. In the futures market, the near - month contracts oscillated at a low level, and the far - month contracts declined. It is recommended that long - position investors wait for the far - month contracts to adjust fully before entering the market [172] 7.2 Data Summary 7.2.1 Inventory and Replenishment - As of the end of November 2025, the national in - production laying hens inventory was about 1.352 billion. In November, the sample enterprises' egg - chicken chick output was about 39.55 million, a 13.5% decrease from the same period last year [173] 7.2.2 Cost, Revenue, and Breeding Profit - As of December 18, the average price of large - sized pink - shell eggs was 2.98 yuan/jin, and the brown - shell eggs were 3.04 yuan/jin. The feed cost was 3.22 yuan/kg, the chick price was 2.68 yuan/chick, and the breeding profit was about - 0.17 yuan/jin [178][179] 7.2.3 Culled Hens - Recently, the culling volume has decreased, the culling age has accelerated, and the culled hen price is at a low level for the same period [181] 7.2.4 Demand, Inventory, and Live Pig Price - As of December 18, the weekly egg sales volume in representative sales areas was 7,023 tons, and the inventory in the circulation and production links was relatively high. The live pig price was 5.85 yuan/jin [189] 8. Sugar 8.1 Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions - This week, the raw sugar index fell back to test the 14 - cent mark, and the Zhengzhou sugar index continued to decline. It is expected that the 5000 - yuan mark may be the short - term bottom [196][197] 8.2 Data Overview - In the 2025/26 sugar - pressing season as of December 1, the cumulative sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region was 39.904 million tons, a 1.13% year - on - year increase. The ethanol - to - sugar price in Brazil's central - southern region is 16.43 cents/pound, higher than the ICE raw sugar price. The import processing profit of raw sugar declined this week [204][205][209]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The carbon emission trading mechanism is a core policy tool for China's "dual - carbon" goal. The current national carbon market is limited to the spot market, and after the expansion this year, the market size has increased by 60%. Listing carbon emission right futures is an important direction for enriching carbon financial products [6] - The national carbon market will enter a new stage with the implementation of a combination of free and有偿 carbon quota allocation. The initial, medium - term, and long - term goals of有偿 allocation are to stabilize the market, promote price discovery, and support low - carbon transformation respectively [7] - The "Notice" on green finance and green factory construction is conducive to the in - depth integration of green finance and industrial green manufacturing, promoting the green transformation of the manufacturing industry [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Carbon Market Weekly Overview - In November, the national carbon market's comprehensive price ranged from 51.54 yuan/ton to 70.14 yuan/ton, with a closing price of 59.65 yuan/ton and a monthly increase of 14.80%. The total trading volume was 4775.32 million tons, and the total turnover was 2.757 billion yuan [5] - In the third week of December, the comprehensive price ranged from 57.74 yuan/ton to 62.98 yuan/ton, with a closing price of 62.40 yuan/ton, a 7.53% increase from the previous Friday. The total trading volume was 972.88 million tons, and the total turnover was 579,633,428.88 yuan [5] - From January 1 to December 19, 2025, the trading volume of carbon emission allowances in the national carbon market was 212 million tons, and the turnover was 12.999 billion yuan [5] 3.2 Market News - Guangzhou plans to promote the construction of the carbon emission trading market and support the Guangzhou Futures Exchange to develop carbon emission right futures [6] - The national carbon market will implement a combination of free and有偿 carbon quota allocation. The initial proportion of有偿 allocation can be set between 1% - 3%, with the medium - term goal of promoting price discovery and the long - term goal of supporting low - carbon transformation [7] - The "Notice" on green finance and green factory construction promotes the integration of green finance and industrial green manufacturing [7] 3.3 Market Data - No specific data content provided other than the section title [10]

请阅读正文后的声明 021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 铁矿石日评 日期 2025 年 12 月 19 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | | | | 表1：12月18日钢材、铁矿期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、%、手、亿元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | RB2605 | ...