Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Daily Review - Date: September 30, 2025 - Research Team: Macro Finance Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao (Macro Precious Metals), Huang Wenxin (Treasury Bonds and Shipping), Nie Jiayi (Stock Index) [2] 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided in the report 2. Core View - Gold prices have started a new upward trend, which may last until the spring and summer of 2026. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset in precious metals trading, and short - hedgers can appropriately reduce their hedging ratios. Due to the Fed's potential interest rate cuts and geopolitical risks, both gold and silver are expected to rise, with silver potentially outperforming gold due to its high volatility. With the approaching of the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays and numerous key data events, the volatility of precious metals may increase, and investors are advised to reduce their positions [4][5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market Trends and Outlook 3.1.1 Intraday Market - The risk of the US government shutdown caused the US dollar index to decline for two consecutive days, falling below the 98 mark. News of potential US drone strikes in Venezuela increased risk - aversion demand. London gold broke through the $3,800 per ounce mark, and London silver reached $47.2 per ounce. Gold prices had a sideways consolidation from late April to August to digest high - valuation pressure. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations have boosted gold prices since early September, starting a new upward trend. This week, attention should be paid to global September PMI, US September non - farm payrolls, and the progress of the US congressional game. With the approaching holidays, investors should reduce positions to avoid risks [4] 3.1.2 Medium - term Market - From late April to early August, London gold fluctuated widely between $3,100 - $3,500 per ounce to digest over - valuation. Since August, the US employment and inflation situation has supported the Fed's restart of the interest - rate cut process. Geopolitical risks also provided safe - haven demand for gold. From late August to early September, various factors drove the gold price to break through $3,500 per ounce. The new upward trend is expected to last until the spring and summer of 2026. Silver, with strong industrial attributes, will also rise with gold and may outperform gold in terms of gains [5] 3.2 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - Trump announced new import tariffs on October 1, including a 100% tariff on patented drugs and a 25% tariff on heavy trucks, breaking the relatively calm trade situation and causing new uncertainties [17] - US consumer spending in August increased slightly more than expected, with a 0.6% increase. Personal income rose 0.4%, and the savings rate dropped to 4.6%. The PCE price index rose 0.3% month - on - month and 2.7% year - on - year, and the core PCE price index rose 0.2% month - on - month and 2.9% year - on - year [17] - Fed's regulatory vice - chair Bowman reiterated the need for decisive interest - rate cuts and supported balance - sheet reduction and adjustment of the standing repurchase mechanism. Richmond Fed President Barkin believes the risks of a significant increase in unemployment or inflation are limited [18] - OPEC+ may approve an increase in oil production of at least 137,000 barrels per day at its October 5 meeting, but the final decision is yet to be made [18]

Report Overview - Report Date: September 30, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Oil and Fat [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Core Viewpoints - The funds in the oil and fat sector have flowed out, trading volume has slowed down, and the market has shown a fluctuating downward trend. For the 01 contract, there is pressure above but also support below, so it is expected to move in a range; for the 05 contract, the strategy is to buy at low prices and roll over for long positions. As the long holiday approaches, attention should be paid to risk control [7] - Although the soybean production in Brazil's 2025/26 season is expected to reach a record high, the climate change in October, the key sowing window period, needs to be closely monitored. If the subsequent rainfall continues to fall short of expectations, it may affect the crop emergence uniformity and potential yield per unit area [9] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Quotes**: In the East China market, the basis prices of different grades of rapeseed oil and soybean oil at different times, as well as the quotes of palm oil of different grades in Guangdong, are given [7] - **Market Analysis**: The oil and fat sector has seen capital outflows, trading volume has slowed down, and the market has trended downward. Short - term seasonal pressure comes from the harvest of North American oilseeds. The 01 contract is expected to move in a range, while the 05 contract is recommended for low - buying and rolling long positions [7] 2. Industry News - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: From September 1 - 25, 2025, Malaysian palm oil exports increased (12.9% according to ITS and 11.3% according to AmSpec), while production decreased by 4.14% compared with the previous period. As of the end of the 39th week of 2025, the domestic palm oil inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 534,000 tons, and the contract volume increased by 4,000 tons to 35,000 tons [8] - **Brazilian Soybeans**: The sowing progress of soybeans in Brazil's 2025/26 season is slow, with only about 1% of the planting area sown as of last week, significantly lower than the same period in previous years. The uneven distribution of rainfall has increased farmers' uncertainty [9] 3. Data Overview - The report presents figures on the spot prices of East China's tertiary rapeseed oil, quaternary soybean oil, South China's 24 - degree palm oil, as well as the basis changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil, and the price spreads of different palm oil contracts, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][13][16]

Report Information - Report Date: September 30, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The futures market opened higher and fluctuated. The market trading atmosphere was average, with traders adjusting prices slightly. Spot prices were mainly stable, and downstream buyers made small - quantity replenishments. The approaching double - festivals increased packaging demand, but market confidence was insufficient, resulting in limited demand drive, weak rebound, and low - level weak fluctuations [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - **Plastic Futures**: L2601 opened higher, fluctuated slightly up during the session, and closed up at 7181 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton (0.25%). Trading volume was 197,000 lots, and open interest decreased by 16,900 lots to 537,691 lots. PP2601 closed at 6903 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan (0.04%), and open interest decreased by 7,767 lots to 602,003 lots [5][6] 2. Industry News - **Inventory**: On September 29, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 560,000 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons (0.90%) from the previous working day. The inventory in the same period last year was 660,000 tons [7] - **PE Market**: PE market prices fluctuated slightly. Linear futures opened higher and fluctuated. The trading atmosphere was average. Traders adjusted prices slightly, and spot prices were mainly stable. Downstream buyers made small - quantity replenishments. The LLDPE prices in North China were 7,100 - 7,350 yuan/ton, in East China were 7,220 - 7,700 yuan/ton, and in South China were 7,250 - 7,700 yuan/ton [7] - **Propylene Market**: The mainstream price of propylene in Shandong market was temporarily 6,370 - 6,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Some major producers restarted, increasing short - term supply. Downstream factories were waiting and buying at low prices. The transaction of producers improved little, with most offers stable and some slightly discounted [7] - **PP Market**: Most PP market prices fluctuated slightly. The mainstream price of North China drawstrings was 6,630 - 6,750 yuan/ton, in East China was 6,680 - 6,800 yuan/ton, and in South China was 6,650 - 6,800 yuan/ton [7] 3. Data Overview - The report provided figures on L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate, with data sources including Wind and Zhuochuang Information [9][15][17]

Report Summary Industry Cotton [1] Date September 30, 2025 [2] Report's Core View - Zhengzhou cotton showed a weak and volatile trend. The spot cotton price index of grade 328 was 14,953 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The pre - sale prices of new cotton in the 2025/26 season were in the range of 14,650 - 14,900 yuan/ton (gross weight), with some lower prices in the 14,500 - 14,650 yuan/ton range. The pre - sale basis for the same quality was CF01 + 1000 - 1200, and the high - price quotes were 1200 - 1350, with delivery before the end of September and mid - October [7]. - The trading atmosphere in the pure cotton yarn market was average, with few new orders for enterprises, and downstream demand was mainly for rigid procurement. Due to the recent decline in cotton prices, the cash flow of enterprises has improved, but the peak season in September was weaker than in previous years. The all - cotton grey fabric market also had a poor performance in September, lacking the characteristics of a peak season in terms of both volume and price. Some factories said that the current demand was mainly for rigid needs, and downstream customers were cautious in stockpiling [8]. - In the overseas market, the good - to - excellent rate of U.S. cotton was slightly adjusted down, the drought coverage in the cotton - growing areas continued to rise, and the weekly signing data decreased month - on - month. However, due to limited adjustments in supply - demand expectations, the net long position of CFTC funds remained at a low level, and the overall market maintained a weak and volatile range. In the domestic market, the lower purchase price of machine - picked seed cotton with a lint percentage of 40% was around 5.9 - 6.1 yuan/kg, and the higher purchase price was still around 6.2 - 6.35 yuan/kg. As new cotton was gradually put on the market, the pre - sale quotes for the near - month of new cotton in the 2025/26 season continued to increase, and the overall quotes were stable with a slight decline compared to last week. The finished product inventory on the demand side was still stable with a slight decline, the market trading volume before the festival decreased, the operating rate decreased slightly, and the downstream demand in the industry was lower than in the same period of previous years. In the short term, the volume of new cotton on the market was limited, and after the festival, it would still operate weakly under the pressure of a bumper harvest. Attention should be paid to the changes in the overseas market during the festival [8]. Summary by Section 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: The prices of CF2601, CF2605, and CF2609 contracts all showed a downward trend. For example, the closing price of CF2601 was 13,390 yuan/ton, down 0.82% from the previous day, with a trading volume of 245,440 and an open interest of 230,258, a decrease of 4,260. The spot price of cotton decreased, and the pre - sale market of new cotton was active [7]. - **Operation Suggestions**: In the short term, the volume of new cotton on the market was limited, but after the festival, it would operate weakly under the pressure of a bumper harvest. Attention should be paid to the changes in the overseas market during the festival [8]. 2. Industry News - According to the weekly report of the China Cotton Association, last week, rainfall in most cotton - growing areas in Xinjiang affected the effect of defoliants, resulting in more green leaves remaining in the lower part of cotton plants, which postponed large - scale machine - picking. The cotton harvest has started in the northern Xinjiang region, and partial harvesting has begun in the southern Xinjiang region. However, the moisture content of newly harvested seed cotton is relatively high, and many enterprises have postponed the start of purchasing to ensure the quality of purchases. It is expected that large - scale harvesting will start in the whole region in early October. Last week, the price of lint cotton declined, and the purchase price of seed cotton also decreased accordingly. The price of machine - picked cotton was 6.0 - 6.3 yuan/kg, and the price of hand - picked cotton in southern Xinjiang was 7.1 - 7.3 yuan/kg, which was lower than that in the early part of the month. The enterprises that have purchased are generally cautious, closely following the market rhythm to control costs and reduce risks [9]. 3. Data Overview The report provides multiple data charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, and the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB and the Indian rupee, etc. The data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [17][18][26]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Sugar Daily Report [1] - Date: September 30, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Wang Haifeng, Lin Zhenlei, Yu Lanlan, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: SR601 closed at 5479 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan or 0.22%, with a position reduction of 10,429 contracts; SR605 closed at 5437 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan or 0.28%, with a position increase of 995 contracts; US Sugar 03 closed at 16.35 cents/pound, up 0.07 cents or 0.43%, with a position increase of 7452 contracts; US Sugar 05 closed at 15.89 cents/pound, up 0.09 cents or 0.57%, with a position increase of 3069 contracts [7] - Market Analysis: New York raw sugar futures fluctuated strongly on Friday, while Zhengzhou sugar's main contract rose and then fell. Domestic spot prices in production areas slightly declined. Zhengzhou sugar has entered the pre-holiday adjustment period, with reduced volatility as funds seek risk aversion. Speculative short positions slightly decreased after the market [7][8] Group 3: Industry News - Brazil: Minas Gerais will end the 2025/26 sugarcane harvest earlier than previous years, with a decline in total output. As of the first half of September, the state had crushed 58.2 million tons of sugarcane, accounting for 75.4% of the expected output this season, a decrease of about 4.5% compared to the 2024/25 season. Analysts expect the sugar output in the central-southern region of Brazil in the first half of September to increase by 15% year-on-year to 3.6 million tons, with a 6.8% increase in sugarcane crushing volume to 45.92 million tons, but a 3.9% year-on-year decline in sugar content per ton of sugarcane to 153.84 kg. Ethanol output is expected to decline by 3.4% year-on-year to 2.37 billion liters [9] - Pakistan: The floods in 2025 have severely damaged Pakistan's agricultural sector, destroying 2.5 million acres of arable land, including 7% of the arable land in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Major crops such as rice, sugarcane, and corn have been severely affected [9] - Global Sugar Market: StoneX expects a global sugar supply surplus of 2.77 million tons in the 2025/26 season starting in October. Global sugar production is estimated at 197.5 million tons, while consumption is expected to be 194.7 million tons. Improved crop harvests in Brazil, India, and Thailand will offset the expected decline in Europe [9] Group 4: Data Overview - Figures: The report includes figures on spot trends, contract basis, price spreads, import profits, warehouse receipts, exchange rates, and the trading and position of the top 20 seats in the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar [12][14][19][22]

General Information - Report Title: Pulp Daily Report [1] - Date: September 30, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Pulp futures contract 01 had a previous settlement price of 5,290 yuan/ton and a closing price of 5,174 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.19% [7]. - The intended transaction price range of softwood pulp in the Shandong wood pulp market was 4,920 - 6,600 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of Arauco Silver Star in Shandong was 5,550 - 5,580 yuan/ton [7]. Company Quotes and Industry Data - Chile's Arauco Company announced its September wood pulp export prices: Silver Star softwood pulp was $700/ton, down $20/ton from last month; Venus natural pulp was $590/ton, unchanged from last month; Star hardwood pulp was $540/ton, up $20/ton from last month [8]. - In August, the chemical pulp shipments of the world's top 20 pulp - producing countries increased by 10.3% year - on - year, with softwood pulp up 5% and hardwood pulp up 14.7% [8]. - China's total pulp imports in August were 2.653 million tons, a 7.9% decrease from the previous month and a 5.6% decrease year - on - year [8]. - As of September 25, 2025, the weekly pulp inventory in major regions and ports decreased by 3.84% month - on - month [8]. Market Outlook - Before the holiday, the replenishment enthusiasm of the downstream base paper industry increased limitedly, and the demand growth was slow. As the holiday approached, market transactions slowed down, and demand support was limited. Near - month contracts were testing the cost line. In the short term, pulp prices would continue to fluctuate at a low level [8]. Industry News - From January to August 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China was 4,692.97 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. The paper and paper products industry achieved a total profit of 2.293 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 18.8%; the printing and recording media reproduction industry achieved a total profit of 2.072 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 5.2% [9]. - Chief statistician Yu Weining of the National Bureau of Statistics interpreted the profit data of industrial enterprises from January to August 2025, stating that due to multiple factors such as the effectiveness of macro - policies, the in - depth promotion of the national unified market, and the low base in the same period last year, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size improved significantly, revenue remained stable, the equipment manufacturing industry played a key role, and the profits of different - sized enterprises improved [9]. Data Overview - The report includes various data charts, such as European main port wood pulp inventory, domestic main port area pulp inventory, and prices and spreads of different types of paper [23][25]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand and cost drivers of ethylene glycol (MEG) are insufficient at present. With the approaching National Day holiday, market participants are leaving the market to wait and see. It is expected that MEG may maintain a volatile consolidation in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 29th, the main contract of MEG futures opened at 4,215 yuan/ton, with the highest at 4,245 yuan/ton, the lowest at 4,209 yuan/ton, the settlement price at 4,225 yuan/ton, and the closing price at 4,224 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan from the previous trading day's settlement price. The total volume was 115,895 lots, and the open interest was 320,886 lots. The EG2601 contract closed at 4,224 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan, with an open interest of 320,886 lots, a decrease of 5,154 lots; the EG2605 contract closed at 4,287 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan, with an open interest of 5,070 lots, an increase of 177 lots [7]. 3.2. Industry News - **Crude Oil**: Affected by the continuous attacks on a certain European country's oil infrastructure by Ukraine and the prospect of additional sanctions by the EU and the US, concerns about supply constraints were triggered. European and American crude oil futures rose to their highest in nearly two months. Brent crude futures rose for four consecutive trading days and exceeded $70 per barrel for the first time since August. On Friday (September 26), the settlement price of the November 2025 West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $65.72 per barrel, up $0.74 or 1.14% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $64.66 - $66.42; the settlement price of the November 2025 Brent crude oil futures on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $70.13 per barrel, up $0.71 or 1.02% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $69.11 - $70.76 [8]. - **MEG Market in Zhangjiagang**: The spot negotiation price of MEG in Zhangjiagang this week (before September 30) was 4,288 - 4,290 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The negotiation price before October 10 was 4,292 - 4,293 yuan/ton, and the negotiation price in late October was 4,294 - 4,296 yuan/ton. The basis of the current week's spot (before September 30) was at a premium of 64 - 66 yuan/ton compared to EG2601, the basis before October 10 was at a premium of 68 - 69 yuan/ton compared to EG2601, and the basis in late October was at a premium of 70 - 72 yuan/ton compared to EG2601. The mainstream transaction price of the MEG market in Zhangjiagang was 4,280 - 4,310 yuan/ton, up 7.5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [8]. 3.3. Data Overview - Multiple data charts are presented, including MEG futures prices, spot - futures price differences, international crude oil futures main contract closing prices, raw material price indices (ethylene), PTA - MEG price differences, MEG prices, MEG downstream product prices, and MEG downstream product inventories. The data sources are Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][15][16].

Group 1: General Information - Report Date: September 30, 2025 [2] - Report Type: PTA Daily Report [1] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures Market: On the 29th, the closing price of the PTA main futures contract TA2601 was 4,652 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton or 0.26%. The settlement price was 4,650 yuan/ton, and the daily position decreased by 23,048 lots. The trading volume of TA2601 was 580,757 lots, a decrease of 23,048 lots. The closing price of TA2605 was 4,698 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 20,245 lots, a decrease of 1,384 lots [6] - Market Outlook: The crude oil market showed a volatile downward trend, which had a negative impact on market sentiment. Before the holiday, the trading atmosphere in the PTA spot market was dull, and market participants mainly adopted a wait - and - see attitude. With sufficient spot supply, the PTA market is expected to decline slightly [6] Group 3: Industry News - Crude Oil: Affected by the continuous attacks on a European country's oil infrastructure by Ukraine and the potential additional sanctions from the EU and the US, concerns about supply constraints have increased. European and American crude oil futures rose to their highest levels in nearly two months. On Friday (September 26), the settlement price of the WTI November 2025 futures contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $65.72 per barrel, up $0.74 or 1.14%. The settlement price of the Brent November 2025 futures contract on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $70.13 per barrel, up $0.71 or 1.02% [7] - PX: The price of PX in the Chinese market was estimated at $815 - 817 per ton, up $2 per ton. The price in the South Korean market was estimated at $795 - 797 per ton, up $2 per ton. The PX market showed a slight increase, and the cargoes for November and December were traded at $816 per ton [7] - PTA in East China: The price of PTA in the East China market was stable at 4,597 yuan/ton. The average daily negotiation basis was at a discount of 54 yuan/ton compared to the futures contract 2601, up 13 yuan/ton [7] Group 4: Data Overview - Data Sources: Wind, Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][12][14] - Data Charts: Include charts on international crude oil futures prices, upstream raw material spot prices, PX prices, MEG prices, PTA futures prices, basis, PTA processing margins, TA5 - 9 spreads, PTA warehouse receipts, polyester factory load rates, PTA downstream product prices, and PTA downstream product inventories [11][13][17]

1. Report Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: September 30, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 3. Core Viewpoints - The domestic demand repair foundation remains weak, and the policy - driven infrastructure investment has slowed down, dragging down overall investment. The necessity for China's monetary policy to follow the Fed's easing in September is low, and policies may focus on expanding fiscal, credit, and real - estate support, which will bring disturbances to the bond market [11]. - The pressure on the bond market may ease as the fastest - growing phase of the stock market may have passed, but there is still no clear breakthrough. Patience is needed to wait for better allocation value. Currently, with economic data released, the market focus should shift to the capital market and the stock - bond seesaw. Short - term bond varieties have higher certainty as cross - month funds are stable [12] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Performance**: In the afternoon, the strengthening of the A - share market suppressed the performance of long - term bond varieties, while stable cross - month funds supported short - term varieties [8]. - **Interest Rate Bonds**: Yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds changed slightly, with most medium - and long - term yields rising by less than 1bp. By 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 was reported at 1.8075%, up 0.75bp [9]. - **Funding Market**: Cross - quarter funds were stable. There were 2405 billion yuan of reverse repurchases due, and the central bank injected 2886 billion yuan, achieving a net injection of 481 billion yuan. The inter - bank capital sentiment index was stable. Short - term capital rates rose slightly, with the overnight weighted rate of inter - bank deposits down 0.22bp to 1.3103%, the 7 - day rate up 3.17bp to 1.5873%, and medium - and long - term funds rising slightly. The 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate was 1.67% with little change [10] 4.2 Industry News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on September 29 to study major issues in formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the CPC will be held in Beijing from October 20 to 23 [13]. - On the morning of September 29, Premier Li Qiang met with North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son - hee, expressing China's willingness to strengthen exchanges and cooperation with North Korea [13]. - The National Development and Reform Commission stated that the new policy - based financial instruments total 500 billion yuan, all for supplementing project capital, and efforts are being made to invest the funds in specific projects [13]. - The central bank conducted 288.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on September 29, with an operating rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 48.1 billion yuan [14]. - From January to August, the total operating income of state - owned enterprises was 53.96201 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.2%; the total profit was 2.79372 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2.7%; the tax payable was 3.90125 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%; and the asset - liability ratio was 65.2%, a year - on - year increase of 0.3 percentage points [14] 4.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: Transaction data for various treasury bond futures contracts on September 29 are provided, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, trading volume, open interest, etc. For example, the closing price of TL2512 was 113.720, down 0.540, with a decline of 0.47% [6]. - **Money Market**: Information on inter - bank capital sentiment index, short - term and medium - long - term capital rates, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit rate is presented [10]. - **Derivatives Market**: Diagrams of Shibor3M and FR007 interest rate swap fixed - rate curves (mean) are mentioned [36]

1. Report Information - Report Title: Soda Ash and Glass Daily Report [1] - Report Date: September 30, 2025 [2] 2. Research Team - Energy and Chemical Research Team: Researchers include Li Jie (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil), Ren Junchi (PTA, MEG), Peng Haozhou (Urea, Industrial Silicon), Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), Liu Youran (Pulp), Feng Zeren (Glass, Soda Ash) [4] 3. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 4. Core Viewpoints - Soda ash industry: The short - term contradiction has been alleviated, but the fundamental driving force is still insufficient. The supply is still in surplus, and the oversupply situation has not been effectively improved. The disk price is expected to oscillate weakly, mainly driven by macro - market sentiment [8] - Glass industry: The fundamentals are in a weak balance. The disk price is driven by macro - market sentiment and will gradually return to the fundamental logic, and may oscillate weakly in the short term [10] 5. Summary by Directory 5.1 Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions 5.1.1 Soda Ash - **Market Data**: On September 29, the price of the main soda ash futures SA601 contract oscillated downward. The closing price was 1,273 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.76%, and the daily position decreased by 51,954 lots [7] - **Fundamentals**: Supply is at a high level, with weekly production rising to 776,900 tons, the highest this year, a 4.19% month - on - month increase. There is no maintenance news, and production is expected to further increase. Demand is good, with total shipments reaching 881,000 tons, a 11.86% month - on - month increase. Downstream, the daily melting volume of float glass is stable at 160,200 tons, and that of photovoltaic glass is 88,700 tons, with a potential production increase in the future. The factory inventory has decreased to 1.6515 million tons [8] 5.1.2 Glass - **Market Data**: The prices of FG601 and FG603 contracts decreased on September 29. FG601 closed at 1,228 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton, a 2.30% decline; FG603 closed at 1,286 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton, a 2.13% decline [7] - **Fundamentals**: The production of float and photovoltaic glass is stable. The market was previously driven by the "anti - involution" sentiment, but without relevant policies, the sentiment cooled down. In mid - September, the "anti - involution" sentiment reignited, and the spot price increased slightly. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice to support the glass price [9][10] 5.2 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the price trends of active soda ash and glass contracts, soda ash weekly production, enterprise inventory, central China heavy soda market price, and flat glass production, with data sources from Wind and iFind [14][15][18]