Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The core contradictions affecting the glass and soda ash markets include potential glass production line cold repairs from December to the Spring Festival, which may impact far - month pricing and market expectations; the near - month 01 contract of glass will follow the delivery logic with a focus on warehouse receipt games, while soda ash is cost - priced with limited upward valuation elasticity; currently, the high inventory of glass in the middle - stream needs to be digested, and soda ash is in a state of supply - demand surplus [2]. - For short - term trading, the 01 contract's game is about warehouse receipts, and the 05 contract is more about expectations. With unclear short - term drivers, it is advisable to observe [6]. Group 3: Summary by Chapters Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Suggestions 1.1 Core Contradictions - Glass: Some glass production lines may undergo cold repairs from December to the Spring Festival, affecting far - month pricing. The near - month 01 contract follows the delivery logic, and the middle - stream high inventory and off - season demand suppress spot prices [2]. - Soda ash: It is cost - priced. Although there are occasional supply cut - backs, new production capacities are pending, and the output remains at a medium - high level. With the expectation of glass cold repairs, the rigid demand for soda ash is expected to decline [2]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Suggestions - Trend judgment: There are still differences in the near - term spot market. The cold repair expectation and middle - stream high inventory require observation of the persistence of unexpected cold repairs and spot feedback. Cost and supply expectations affect far - month pricing. - Strategy suggestion: The 01 contract's game is about warehouse receipts, and the 05 contract is more about expectations. Observe due to unclear short - term drivers [6]. 1.3 Basic Data Overview - Glass: The average price of glass spot decreased slightly. The prices of the 01, 05, and 09 contracts all declined, with the 05 contract dropping by 3.51%, the 09 contract by 3.02%, and the 01 contract by 2.2% [8][9]. - Soda ash: The prices of the 01, 05, and 09 contracts of soda ash also declined, with the 05 contract dropping by 2.34%, the 09 contract by 2.31%, and the 01 contract by 0.91% [11][12]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: Some glass production lines are expected to undergo cold repairs in December, and the National Development and Reform Commission will control high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects from next year, leading to potential supply - side policy expectations [12]. - Bearish information: The high inventory of glass in the middle - stream persists, and there is still room for price cuts, affecting the delivery price of the 01 contract. New production capacities of soda ash are expected to be put into operation, and the expectation of glass cold repairs will reduce the rigid demand for soda ash [13]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events - Monitor whether there are further clear instructions on industrial policies, glass production and sales, spot prices, and soda ash spot transactions [18]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation Unilateral Trends and Capital Movements - The long - short game of the glass 01 contract may continue until near delivery. The increase in near - term cold repairs and middle - stream high inventory lead to differences in the spot market, while far - month supply cuts and cost increases may affect market pricing and expectations [15]. Basis and Calendar Spread Structure - Glass: The 1 - 5 spread of glass began to narrow this week, showing a positive spread trend, mainly because the near - month contract has a low valuation and short - sellers shifted to far - month contracts. - Soda ash: It generally maintains a C - structure. This week, the 1 - 5 calendar spread of soda ash strengthened from around - 70 to around - 30. With the launch of new production capacities, the long - term outlook has deteriorated again [20]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - Glass: Natural gas - fired production lines are in loss, while petroleum coke and coal - gas production lines have a small profit. - Soda ash: The cash - flow cost of the ammonia - soda process in Shandong is around 1,240 yuan/ton, and that of the combined - soda process in Central China is around 1,170 yuan/ton [33][34]. 4.2 Import and Export Analysis - Glass: The monthly average net export of float glass is 6 - 7 million tons, accounting for 1.4% of the apparent demand, with limited impact. - Soda ash: The monthly average net export of soda ash is 18 - 21 million tons, accounting for 5.8% of the apparent demand, and the export in October exceeded 21 million tons, maintaining high expectations [36]. Chapter 5: Supply, Demand, and Inventory 5.1 Supply - side and Projections - Glass: The daily melting volume of glass has dropped to around 155,000 tons, and some cold - repair production lines are yet to be realized in December, with an expected further decline in daily melting volume [43]. - Soda ash: The current daily production of soda ash has slightly rebounded to around 104,000 - 105,000 tons. New production capacities are expected to be put into operation, increasing the long - term supply pressure [46]. 5.2 Demand - side and Projections - Glass: Terminal demand remains weak, downstream replenishment is limited in the off - season, and the middle - stream maintains high - level low - price replenishment. The 01 contract mainly focuses on warehouse receipt games [49]. - Soda ash: The rigid demand for soda ash is temporarily stable, and downstream enterprises mainly replenish inventory at low prices. With the expectation of glass cold repairs, the rigid demand for soda ash is expected to weaken [58][59]. 5.3 Inventory Analysis - Glass: The manufacturer's inventory is 58.227 million weight boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 1.216 million weight boxes (- 2.05%), and a year - on - year increase of 22.26%. The inventory days are 26.3 days, a decrease of 0.5 days from the previous period. The middle - stream inventories in Shahe and Hubei remain high [65]. - Soda ash: The total inventory of soda ash is 1.4943 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 44,300 tons. The upstream inventory is being depleted, and the replenishment of light and heavy soda ash is good [65].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the polysilicon futures price showed an overall weak and volatile trend. The core factors influencing the price are the supply - side maintenance and shutdown, downstream demand - side production scheduling, anti - involution policies in the photovoltaic industry, and warehouse receipt registration [3]. - From a fundamental perspective, the industry currently features "weak supply and demand." The polysilicon production has declined, and the expansion of industry supply has significantly slowed. Downstream production in silicon wafers, cells, and components is also under pressure, and the overall industry is contracting. Polysilicon inventory remains at a recent high, and the terminal demand in the component bidding market remains weak [3]. - In terms of trading sentiment, the market has reacted to platform companies, and subsequent actual implementation needs attention. The trading logic should be based on the technical analysis supported by price trends and volume - energy changes [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The core factors influencing the polysilicon futures price are the supply - side maintenance and shutdown, downstream demand - side production scheduling, anti - involution policies in the photovoltaic industry, and warehouse receipt registration [3]. - Near - term trading logic (before the end of the year): warehouse receipt registration and supply - and - demand - side production reduction and shutdown [5][6]. - Long - term trading logic (after the end of the year): the implementation of "anti - involution" policies and the new photovoltaic installation capacity in 2026, and downstream and overseas photovoltaic demand [6]. 3.1.2 Industry Operation Suggestions - Polysilicon futures price: expected to be in a wide - range volatile state, with the current 20 - day rolling volatility at 28.63%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past 3 years at 83.6% [8]. - Risk management strategies for the photovoltaic industry: different hedging suggestions are provided for polysilicon sales, procurement, and inventory management, including the use of futures contracts and option strategies, with recommended hedging ratios [8]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Market Information 3.2.1 This Week's Main Information - On December 6th, Oman Arab Bank and United Solar Polysilicon finalized a $220 million financing agreement to support the construction of a 100,000 - ton high - purity polysilicon plant, which is about to be put into production [9]. - On December 9th, the board of directors of Chint Electric approved a proposal to purchase photovoltaic components from related parties in 2026, with the total transaction amount not exceeding 3.5 billion yuan [9]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Attention Events The provided content does not mention specific next - week attention events. 3.3 Chapter 3: Market Analysis 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Analysis - This week, the polysilicon weighted index contract closed at 57,724 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6.23%. The trading volume was 448,900 lots, a week - on - week increase of 78.24%, and the open interest was 269,600 lots. The PS2601 - PS2605 spread was in a back structure, a week - on - week decrease of 780 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts was 3,640 lots, a week - on - week increase of 1,320 lots [14]. - Technical analysis: The polysilicon futures price showed a "long - position increase and upward movement" feature, moving from below the 60 - day line to above the 5 - day line. It also moved from near the middle track of the Bollinger Band to the upper track, and the Bollinger Band width was volatile. Currently, it is in a wide - range volatile range of 50,000 - 58,000 yuan/ton, with support at 50,000 yuan/ton and resistance at 60,000 yuan/ton [14]. - Option situation: The 20 - day historical volatility and the implied volatility of at - the - money options of polysilicon were both volatile. The PCR of option open interest was in a volatile and relatively strong state, indicating a growing bearish sentiment in the market [16]. - Capital flow: The net long - position scale of key profitable seats in polysilicon showed an increasing trend [19]. - Spread structure: The polysilicon futures term structure was in a back structure, with a weaker change compared to last week [21]. - Basis structure: The basis of the main contract this week showed a weak and volatile trend [25]. 3.3.2 Futures and Price Data - The prices of various types of polysilicon, silicon wafers, cells, and components showed little change, with some products having a slight increase or decrease in price [28]. 3.4 Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis - Currently, the overall profitability of polysilicon enterprises is stable. The spot profit of polysilicon is in a stable state, and the profit of the silane method is higher than that of the improved Siemens method [29]. - From the perspective of the futures end, under the accounting model with industrial silicon and electricity as the main cost components, the gross profit margin of polysilicon futures is about 36.15% [29]. 3.5 Chapter 5: Fundamental Data 3.5.1 Polysilicon Supply - Domestic polysilicon weekly production decreased, with the SMM - weekly production at 25,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.71%, and the Baichuan - weekly production at 26,330 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.53% [36]. - Overseas polysilicon monthly production and monthly operating rate data are provided [38]. - Polysilicon inventory: The total domestic weekly polysilicon inventory was 512,000 tons, an increase of 1.67% week - on - week. The inventory of production enterprises, silicon wafer enterprises, and warehouse receipts also changed to varying degrees [41]. 3.5.2 Silicon Wafer Supply - The weekly production of silicon wafers in China was 12.15 GW, a week - on - week increase of 1.67%, and the weekly inventory was 23.3 GW, a week - on - week increase of 9.39% [44]. - Data on the monthly net export and weekly inventory of silicon wafers are also provided [47][49]. 3.5.3 Cell Supply - The monthly production and operating rate data of cells, including different types such as Topcon, BC, and HJT cells, are provided [51]. - The weekly inventory of photovoltaic cells was 9.07 GW, a week - on - week decrease of 4.73% [54]. 3.5.4 Photovoltaic Component Supply - The monthly production and operating rate data of photovoltaic components, including N - type and P - type components, are provided [57]. - The weekly inventory of photovoltaic components was 30.4 GW, a week - on - week decrease of 0.33% [60]. 3.5.5 Bidding - The weekly data of photovoltaic component bidding showed that the winning bid capacity was 1,649.73 MW, a week - on - week increase of 33.82%, and the average winning bid price was 0.74 yuan/watt, a week - on - week decrease of 2.63% [62]. 3.5.6 Installation and Application - The monthly new installation capacity data of photovoltaic power generation in China are provided, as well as the data on green power generation and the proportion of photovoltaic power generation in green power [66][68].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The Fed's rate cut last week met market expectations, and copper prices reached new highs after a brief pause. However, the weakening rate - cut expectations led to speculative funds reducing positions at high levels. The copper market shows a "high - price but low - trading" state, and copper prices are expected to adjust at high levels [2][3]. - Cathode copper is in the late stage of an uptrend and at a cyclical high, with a risk of correction; LME copper is in the middle stage of an uptrend, with an upward trend and a neutral cycle. The risk - return ratios of going long on Shanghai copper and LME copper are both low, suggesting cautious participation [3][12]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The Fed cut interest rates last week as expected, but the probability of future rate cuts is low, causing speculative funds to reduce positions at high levels. The downstream shows a "high - price but low - trading" state, and the LME copper cancelled warrants support the premium of bonded - zone copper in China [2]. - Next week, the release of macro - economic data may increase copper - price volatility. Near the end of the year, the start - up rate of downstream enterprises is expected to rise, and copper prices are expected to decline to stimulate demand, but the decline is relatively limited [3]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: The latest price percentile of Shanghai copper is 100%, and its one - week annualized volatility is 17.79%. The latest price percentile of LME copper is 99.87%, and its one - week annualized volatility is 18.65% [12]. - **Trend Judgment**: Cathode copper is in the late stage of an uptrend and at a cyclical high; LME copper is in the middle stage of an uptrend, with an upward trend and a neutral cycle [12]. - **Price Range**: The price range of Shanghai copper is [89777, 95223], with a center of 92500; the price range of LME copper is [11046, 11882], with a center of 11464 [12]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: The risk - return ratio of going long on Shanghai copper is 0.49%, and that of LME copper is 0.81%, both suggesting cautious participation [12]. - **Combination Strategies**: Recommend the "buy futures + sell put options" and "buy call options + sell put options" strategies. In the short - term high - level adjustment of prices, the cost - optimization strategy is recommended [14]. - **Basis, Calendar Spread, and Arbitrage Strategies**: The basis strategy is expected to strengthen; the calendar - spread strategy is neutral; the cross - border spread strategy is within the normal range, suggesting waiting and seeing [15]. 1.3 Enterprise Hedging Strategy Recommendations - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, they can short Shanghai copper futures contracts at pressure levels and enter the market at 93000 - 95000. They can also consider selling call options or buying put options, currently on hold [18]. - **Raw - Material Management**: For enterprises with low raw - material inventory, they can buy long - position futures contracts near support levels. They can also consider buying up - and - out accumulator options at 90000 - 94000 [19]. 1.4 Review of Trading and Hedging Strategies - The previous long - position futures hedging positions bought at low levels can be held. For those not hedged, they can consider the "sell put options + buy call options" combination strategy [19]. 2. This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Key Event Interpretation 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points on December 11; the Central Economic Work Conference was held, setting the direction for economic development; the copper output of some major mines in Chile decreased, and the supply - side vulnerability increased [21]. - **Negative Information**: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in the future is low; domestic electrolytic - copper inventory continues to accumulate; the proportion of Chinese - produced copper in LME available inventory has increased [22][23]. 2.2 Next Week's Key Event Interpretation - Next week, important macro - economic indicators such as China's fixed - asset investment, unemployment rate, and the US retail sales and unemployment rate will be released [25]. 3. Interpretation of Disk Price, Volume, and Funds 3.1 Domestic Market Interpretation - The trading volume of the Shanghai copper weighted index increased by 3.13% week - on - week, and the position decreased by 1.03%. The market speculation degree rebounded from a low level. The main contract of Shanghai copper shifted to 2602, with the price fluctuating around 92424, closing at 94080 yuan/ton on Friday, up 1.77% for the week [29]. - The term structure of Shanghai copper shows a slight backwardation in the forward contracts, and INE international copper shows a "first - backwardation - then - contango" structure [29]. 3.2 Foreign Market Interpretation - LME copper prices reached a new high and then fell, and COMEX copper prices also adjusted after briefly hitting the 550 pressure level. The decline and amplitude of COMEX copper are greater than those of LME copper [32]. - LME copper prices fluctuated in the range of [11434.5, 11952], closing at 11552.5 US dollars/ton, down 1.05% for the week. COMEX copper prices fluctuated in the range of [528, 553.05], closing at 535.85 US cents/pound, down 1.25% for the week [32]. 4. Spot Price and Profit Analysis 4.1 Spot Price and Smelting Profit - The spot price showed strong growth in the second half of the week, with a narrowing premium. The scrap - copper processing enterprises' start - up rate declined, and the scrap - copper supply was tight, supporting price increases. The refined - scrap spread showed a "first - decline - then - rebound" trend [36]. - The processing fees of power - rod and enameled - wire enterprises remained flat. The start - up rates of copper - tube, copper - plate, and copper - rod enterprises declined. The smelting income of refined - copper spot increased, and the smelting plants' purchasing willingness rebounded from a low level [36]. 4.2 Import Profit and Import Volume - The import profits of copper and recycled copper further decreased, suppressing domestic enterprises' import willingness. China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products in November were 42.7 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to November decreased by 4.7% year - on - year [38]. - Chile's copper exports in November increased by 4.57% year - on - year, and the exports to China accounted for 23.4%. China's imports of copper ore and concentrates in November increased by 3% month - on - month and 12.5% year - on - year [39]. 4.3 Inventory Analysis - The "siphon effect" of Comex copper inventory still exists, and both domestic and foreign copper inventories have increased. LME copper cancelled warrants increased significantly, and the proportion of cancelled warrants rose to 39.78%, with a slowdown in the rebound rate [44][46]. - Due to the weakening import profit and the rebound of the Yangshan copper premium, domestic smelting enterprises have a high willingness to export copper, resulting in less copper imports [46]. 5. Supply - Demand Deduction and Price Expectation 5.1 Supply Deduction - In 2025, the global copper - concentrate output is expected to be 1987.1 million tons, and the supply - demand balance of global copper concentrates is - 16.6 million tons. In 2026, the global copper - concentrate output is expected to be 2044.1 million tons, and the supply - demand balance is - 33.1 million tons [51][53]. - China's electrolytic - copper output in November was 110.31 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 9.75%. It is expected to be 116.88 tons in December, with a year - on - year increase of 6.69% [53][54]. 5.2 Demand Expectation - In November, China's copper - product output was 178.79 tons, with a comprehensive start - up rate of 61.6%. In December, the start - up rates of most industries are expected to increase slightly, and the apparent consumption of electrolytic copper is expected to rebound [56][58]. 5.3 Price Expectation - The domestic and foreign copper prices reached new highs and then fell, and the upward trend has paused. The Fed's rate cut has been fully priced in. Before new positive factors emerge, prices need to adjust at high levels to increase spot - purchasing willingness [62].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - This week, the polyolefin market declined rapidly due to persistent pessimism. Upstream price cuts failed to stimulate downstream speculative restocking, leading to increased supply pressure and a weaker basis. PE currently faces a situation of increasing supply and decreasing demand, with limited planned maintenance at the end of the year, restarting of previously shut - down plants, and multiple new plant launches in Q4, while the peak demand season for downstream products is ending [1]. - In the short - term, the market may rebound, but in the medium - to - long - term, it is bearish. The price range for L2605 is expected to be between 6400 - 6700. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and go short on rallies in the medium - to - long - term [10]. - Comparing PE and PP, PP's cost support is relatively strong, with expected marginal improvement in supply in January due to potential plant shutdowns, while PE shows a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, supporting a narrowing of the L - P spread in the short - term [7]. - In the medium - to - long - term, there will be many new PE plant launches next year, mainly for non - standard products. The supply pressure on LLDPE may ease, but the increased supply of non - standard products could suppress its price [8]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The rapid decline in the polyolefin market is driven by pessimistic market sentiment. Upstream price cuts couldn't boost downstream restocking, increasing supply pressure and weakening the basis. PE has a supply - demand imbalance with rising supply and falling demand [1]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: Short - term rebound possible, medium - to - long - term bearish. - **Price Range**: L2605 at 6400 - 6700. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Wait and see in the short - term, go short on rallies in the medium - to - long - term [10]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Suggestions - **Base - spread Strategy**: None for now. - **Month - spread Strategy**: None for now. - **Hedging and Arbitrage Strategy**: Focus on the narrowing of the L - P spread in the short - term. Also, inventory management can involve shorting plastic futures and selling call options, while procurement management can involve buying plastic futures and selling put options [12][13]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The National Development and Reform Commission will effectively control high - energy - consuming and high - emission projects starting next year [14]. - **Negative Information**: BASF's 500,000 - ton full - density plant is expected to start production by the end of the year [15]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the national economic operation [16]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend**: The PE market continued to decline, with a larger decline than last week. - **Capital Movement**: The position of the 01 contract decreased as it approaches delivery, while the 05 contract's position increased rapidly. There was no significant change in the top five long and short positions in the order book, and the net short position of the top five profitable seats increased slightly [20]. - **Basis Structure**: Due to pessimistic industrial sentiment, the spot price fell, driving the market down and weakening the basis. As of Friday, the North China basis was - 36 yuan/ton (down 62 from last week), the East China basis was 74 yuan/ton (down 112), and the South China basis was 24 yuan/ton (down 152) [25]. - **Month - spread Structure**: As the 01 contract's valuation dropped to a very low level and neared delivery, short - term positive arbitrage occurred due to concentrated short - position roll - overs [28]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - With the continuous weakness of PE prices, the production profits of all production lines have been compressed [31]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - At the end of the year, PE still faces pressure. Supply is increasing due to limited planned maintenance, restarting plants, and new plant launches, and imports may increase from the end of this year to early next year. Demand is weakening as the peak season for agricultural films ends, intensifying the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern [40]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Projection - The current PE operating rate is 84.11% (+0.06%). It is expected to remain high as planned maintenance at the end of the year is limited. Zhejiang Petrochemical's LDPE/EVA plant is expected to start soon, and Yulong Petrochemical's LDPE/EVA plant and BASF's full - density plant are expected to start at the beginning of next year [48]. 5.3 Import - Export and Projection - In terms of imports, the PE price in the US market has stabilized and rebounded, with fewer offers from the US recently. Although imports are expected to increase slightly from the end of this year to early next year, in the long - run, domestic supply is expected to gradually replace imports. In terms of exports, enterprises are more active in expanding export channels, and PE exports have increased even in the off - season [57]. 5.4 Demand - Side and Projection - The current average downstream operating rate of PE is 44.3% (-0.76%), with a significant decline in the agricultural film production operating rate. The growth space for PE demand is limited, further intensifying the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern [65].

南华期货碳酸锂产业周报 ——复产扰动与强预期博弈 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 研究助理：余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月14日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 本周碳酸锂市场呈现宽幅偏强震荡态势。展望未来，碳酸锂期货价格的驱动逻辑将聚焦以下因素：国内锂矿 库存紧张程度、枧下窝复产进展、下游补库节奏、Q1下游排产，上述因素将共同主导后续市场价格走势。 锂矿端，国内可售锂精矿库存仍较为紧张。供给方面，"枧下窝复产进度"是关键变量，若其复产进度超市 场预期，将直接扩大锂盐供给规模，对价格形成潜在压制。需求端表现强劲，市场整体库存持续去化，下游 库存降幅显著。12月份下游正极材料及动力电芯排产环比微增，市场需求维持强劲。同时，下游补库节奏亦 不容忽视，碳酸锂价格已连续上涨约1个月，涨价周期内下游对高价碳酸锂的采购意愿显著下降，以消耗自身 库存为主。若后续刚需补库需求逐步释放，现货基差有望逐步走强。从技术面分析，当前面临较大回调压 力。 综合基本面等因素分析，在宁德复产扰动的背景 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Fundamental support for caustic soda is limited. As the off - season approaches, there is an expectation of further weakening in demand, and alkali plant inventories are relatively high. In terms of valuation, the liquid chlorine price is neutral. Although chlor - alkali profits have declined, production is at a high level, resulting in continuous supply pressure. In the medium to long term, the pressure of new production capacity remains, and the supply - demand pattern is weak. [1] - The high - production pattern restricts the price space of caustic soda. With insufficient fundamental support, the price is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend. [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Near - term trading logic: The current supply - demand situation is weak. It is the off - season for non - aluminum demand, and speculative demand at low prices has been falling short of expectations. The overall price of alumina is under pressure, leading to a pessimistic outlook for caustic soda demand. Chlor - alkali profits are moderately low, but production is at a high level, resulting in continuous supply pressure. [8] - Long - term trading expectations: The pressure of new production capacity in the medium to long term continues, and the supply - demand pattern is weak. [3] 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - The high - production pattern restricts the price space of caustic soda. With insufficient fundamental support, the price is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend. [9] 3.1.3 Basic Data Overview - **32% caustic soda ex - factory price (converted to futures price)**: On December 12, 2025, prices in most regions remained unchanged compared to the previous day. Only in Shaanxi, Beiyuan's price dropped by 50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.5%. [11] - **50% caustic soda ex - factory price (converted to futures price)**: On December 12, 2025, most prices were stable, except for Lutai, which decreased by 40 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.7%. [11] - **Flake caustic soda market price**: On December 12, 2025, prices in most regions remained unchanged. In the Southwest, Central China, and East China regions, prices dropped by 50 yuan/ton, with decreases of 1.5%, 1.6%, and 1.5% respectively. [12] - **Caustic soda grade/regional spread**: On December 12, 2025, all spreads remained unchanged compared to the previous day. [12] - **Caustic soda futures price/month spread**: On December 12, 2025, the 05 contract increased by 4 yuan/ton (0.18%), the 09 contract decreased by 16 yuan/ton (- 0.68%), and the 01 contract increased by 8 yuan/ton (0.38%). The month - spreads also changed accordingly. [13] 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: Chlor - alkali profits have declined, and the overall market pricing is relatively pessimistic. [14] - Bearish information: Not provided in the document 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Observe the downstream demand, the off - season situation of non - aluminum industries, and the alkali - stocking rhythm of aluminum plants. [14] 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral trend and capital flow: This week, the caustic soda price continued to decline, reaching a new low for the year. However, there is no obvious upward driving force in both fundamentals and sentiment. [14] - **Reasons**: Caustic soda production remains at a high level, increasing supply pressure, and non - aluminum demand is expected to weaken. [16] 3.3.2 Basis and Month - Spread Structure - Shandong Jinling's 32% caustic soda (converted to 100% purity) is priced at 2156 yuan/ton, with a premium of 60 yuan over the 01 contract and 46 yuan/ton over the 03 contract. Alkali plant inventories are at a high level, and the fundamentals lack support. [17] 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream - Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - As the caustic soda price falls, overall chlor - alkali profits have declined. The liquid chlorine price is relatively neutral, at 100 yuan/ton in both Jiangsu and Shandong. [27] 3.4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking - In terms of exports, the Southeast Asian CFR price is 430 US dollars/ton, remaining stable for now. There is an expectation of substitution in overseas caustic soda demand, and the sustainability of exports needs to be observed. [39] 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory 3.5.1 Spot Data - **Caustic soda - 32% caustic soda spot price**: The document shows the seasonal price trends of 32% caustic soda in different regions such as Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang. [44] - **Caustic soda - 50% caustic soda spot price**: It presents the seasonal price trends of 50% caustic soda in different regions including Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shaanxi. [52] - **Flake caustic soda spot price**: It shows the seasonal price trends of 99% flake caustic soda in different regions such as North China, East China, Central China, and Northeast China. [55] - **Spot regional spread**: It includes spreads such as Shandong 50% caustic soda - 32% caustic soda, Jiangsu 49% caustic soda - 32% caustic soda, and Northwest 99% caustic soda - 50% caustic soda. [61] - **Spot price converted to futures price**: It shows the seasonal trends of the converted prices of caustic soda in different regions and grades. [68] - **Caustic soda foreign - market price**: It includes prices such as the Northeast Asian FOB price, Southeast Asian CFR price, Indian caustic soda price, US Gulf of Mexico FOB price, and Western European liquid caustic soda price. [96] 3.5.2 Supply Side - **Caustic soda loss volume**: It shows the seasonal trends of weekly and monthly caustic soda plant loss volumes. [103] - **Liquid caustic soda production and operation rate**: It presents the seasonal trends of weekly and monthly total production and operation rates of liquid caustic soda, as well as the production in regions such as Shandong, Jiangsu, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang. [105] - **Flake caustic soda production and operation rate**: It shows the seasonal trends of weekly total production and operation rates of flake caustic soda, as well as the production in regions such as Shandong, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Xinjiang. [114] 3.5.3 Demand Side - **Alumina spot price**: It shows the average prices and costs of alumina in different regions such as Shandong, Henan, and Shanxi, as well as the industry - wide average profit. [122] - **Alumina weekly operation rate**: It shows the seasonal trend of the national weekly operation rate of alumina. [124] - **Operation rates of related industries**: It includes the weekly operation load rates of propylene oxide, epichlorohydrin, and viscose staple fiber in China. [126] - **Caustic soda import - export volume**: It shows the seasonal trends of monthly import and export volumes of caustic soda in China, as well as the export structure by continent. [131] 3.5.4 Inventory - **Liquid caustic soda inventory**: It shows the seasonal trends of weekly factory inventories of liquid caustic soda in different regions such as Shandong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Inner Mongolia, as well as in different regions of China. [137] - **Flake caustic soda inventory**: It shows the seasonal trends of weekly total inventory, factory inventory, and regional factory inventories of flake caustic soda. [149]

Report Summary 1. Index Performance - The Nanhua Composite Index dropped 31.1 points, a decline of -1.21%. The most influential commodities were crude oil and rebar, with crude oil's index down -3.58% and contributing -0.59%, and rebar's index down -3.07% and contributing -0.24% [1][2]. - The Nanhua Industrial Products Index fell 84.82 points, a -2.42% decrease. Crude oil and coke were the most influential, with crude oil contributing -0.63% and coke -0.34% [1][2]. - The Nanhua Metal Index decreased 31.88 points, a -0.48% decline. Rebar was the most influential, contributing -0.56% [1][2]. - The Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index dropped 53.35 points, a -3.47% decrease. Crude oil was the most influential, contributing -0.9% [2]. - The Nanhua Agricultural Products Index fell 7.07 points, a -0.67% decline. Palm oil was the most influential, contributing -0.32% [2]. 2. Weekly Data Overview | Index Name | This Week's Close | Last Week's Close | Change in Points | Change Rate | This Week's Max | This Week's Min | Amplitude | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Composite Index NHCI | 2545.98 | 2577.08 | -31.10 | -1.21% | 2577.08 | 2538.31 | 38.78 | | Precious Metals Index NHPMI | 1732.30 | 1664.41 | 67.89 | 4.08% | 1732.30 | 1650.64 | 81.66 | | Industrial Products Index NHII | 3427.15 | 3511.97 | -84.82 | -2.42% | 3511.97 | 3427.15 | 84.82 | | National Index NHMI | 6580.25 | 6612.13 | -31.88 | -0.48% | 6612.13 | 6517.48 | 94.65 | | Energy and Chemical Index NHECI | 1483.75 | 1537.11 | -53.35 | -3.47% | 1538.52 | 1483.75 | 54.77 | | Non - ferrous Metals Index NHNFI | 1816.81 | 1808.01 | 8.80 | 0.49% | 1816.81 | 1784.57 | 32.24 | | Black Index NHFI | 2446.06 | 2512.02 | -65.97 | -2.63% | 2512.02 | 2446.06 | 65.97 | | Agricultural Products Index NHAI | 1046.81 | 1053.88 | -7.07 | -0.67% | 1053.88 | 1043.69 | 10.19 | | Nanhua Comprehensive New Consumption NHCIMi | 1149.85 | 1177.71 | -27.86 | -2.37% | 1177.71 | 1149.85 | 27.86 | | Energy Consumption NHEI | 955.64 | 996.74 | -41.10 | -4.12% | 1001.72 | 955.64 | 46.08 | | Petrochemical New Ammonia NHPCI | 854.24 | 872.01 | -17.77 | -2.04% | 873.30 | 854.24 | 19.06 | | Steam - related Engineering Information HCCI | 875.06 | 906.51 | -31.44 | -3.47% | 907.01 | 875.06 | 31.95 | | Black Raw Materials Index NHFMI | 1021.95 | 1049.34 | -27.40 | -2.61% | 1049.34 | 1021.95 | 27.40 | | Building Materials Consumption NHBMI | 665.68 | 697.12 | -31.44 | -4.51% | 697.12 | 665.68 | 31.44 | | Oilseeds and Oils Index NHOOl | 1222.55 | 1238.74 | -16.20 | -1.31% | 1238.74 | 1215.46 | 23.28 | | Economic Crops Consumption NHAECI | 914.09 | 917.76 | -3.67 | -0.40% | 917.76 | 913.51 | 4.25 | [3] 3. Arbitrage Data - The report provides data on the strength - weakness arbitrage of Nanhua variety indices, including the current value, previous value, change, and ranking of various index ratios. For example, the ratio of the Precious Metals Index to the Composite Index is 0.680, up from 0.646 last week, with a change of 0.034555931 and a ranking of 0.999 [9]. 4. Contribution of Key Commodities in Each Index Nanhua Industrial Products Index - The top 6 commodities contributing the most are crude oil, coke, soda ash, rebar, glass, and polyvinyl chloride. Crude oil's index fell -3.58% and contributed -0.63%, coke's index fell -6.11% and contributed -0.34% [14]. Nanhua Metal Index - The top 3 commodities contributing the most are rebar, manganese, and iron ore. Rebar's index fell -3.07% and contributed -0.56% [14]. Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index - The top 3 commodities contributing the most are crude oil, coke, and soda ash. Crude oil's index fell -3.58% and contributed -0.90%, coke's index fell -6.11% and contributed -0.50% [14]. Nanhua Agricultural Products Index - The top 3 commodities contributing the most are palm oil, soybean meal, and corn. Palm oil's index fell -2.40% and contributed -0.32% [14]. Nanhua Black Index - The top 3 commodities contributing the most are coke, rebar, and iron ore. Coke's index fell -6.11% and contributed -1.16%, rebar's index fell -3.07% and contributed -1.08% [15]. Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Index - The top 3 commodities contributing the most are copper, potassium carbonate, and another unnamed commodity. Copper's index rose 1.45% and contributed 0.44%, potassium carbonate's index rose 6.03% and contributed 0.37% [17]. 5. Position and Contribution of Futures Varieties - The report lists the average weekly position, month - on - month increase, position ratio, and contribution to the index change rate of various futures varieties. For example, the average weekly position of soybean meal is 3797619 hands, with a month - on - month increase of 1.83% and a position ratio of 0.22% [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - Overseas markets focus on the Fed's policy direction, and the expectation of finalizing the next Fed chair is rising. The market anticipates that the new chair may push for more aggressive rate cuts, but there is uncertainty about the implementation of rate cuts. Asset prices will show structural differentiation. Domestically, the economy shows marginal improvement, but the foundation for economic recovery is not yet solid. The Politburo meeting has set a positive tone, emphasizing the expansion of domestic demand [1]. - The Fed's rate cut and bond - buying decision are interpreted as "not QE but similar to QE", which is negative for the US dollar index. The central economic work conference aims to keep the RMB exchange rate stable, and the RMB exchange rate is expected to show a two - way fluctuation in the long - term [2]. - The central economic work conference is expected to boost market sentiment, and the stock index is expected to be strong in the short - term, with large - cap stock indexes outperforming [4]. - The bond market has room for growth in the medium - term, and it is recommended to hold long - term positions [5]. - The price of the container shipping European line is expected to be supported before the Spring Festival, but there are both long and short factors in the market, and short - term fluctuations may intensify [6]. - Precious metals prices are expected to rise in the medium - to long - term, driven by factors such as central bank gold purchases and investment demand. Platinum is recommended to be bought on dips, and palladium is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term [10]. - The copper price is supported by the Fed's rate cut, and it is recommended to hold long positions. The aluminum market is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term; the alumina market is expected to be weak; and the cast aluminum alloy market is expected to fluctuate strongly [14]. - The zinc market is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short - term, and the tin market is expected to be strong and volatile in the short - term. The lead market is expected to fluctuate [16][17]. - The steel product market is expected to fluctuate within a certain range, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction speed and downstream consumption. The iron ore price is expected to have limited downward space, and the coking coal and coke market is under pressure in the short - term [19][23]. - The ferroalloy market is expected to be weak and volatile, and attention should be paid to the possibility of price rebounds due to production cuts [25]. - The oil price is affected by geopolitical tensions and fundamentals, and the short - term price is mainly affected by the US - Venezuela situation. The LPG market is driven down by multiple factors, and the PX - PTA market has no obvious driving force in the short - term [28][30]. - The ethylene glycol market is expected to be under pressure in the medium - to long - term, and it is recommended to short on rallies. The methanol market is expected to be weak, and the PP market is not recommended to be shorted further at the current valuation [34][39]. - The PE market is expected to maintain a bottom - level shock in the short - term, and the pure benzene - styrene market is expected to be volatile. The fuel oil market is recommended to be observed, and the low - sulfur fuel oil market is also recommended to be observed [42][46]. - The rubber market is expected to fluctuate narrowly, and the urea market is expected to fluctuate. The soda ash market is expected to be under pressure, and the glass market is affected by cold - repair expectations [51][54][55]. - The caustic soda market is expected to be weak and volatile, and the pulp and offset paper markets are recommended to be observed. The log market is not recommended to be shorted at the current price, and the propylene market is expected to be weak [57][59][61]. - The oilseed market is expected to continue the positive spread trend, and the oil market is expected to continue to fluctuate in a range. The cotton market is recommended to be long on dips, and the sugar market is expected to be weak. The apple market is expected to be strong, and the jujube market is expected to have limited downward space [62][63][65]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The central economic work conference emphasizes the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy, stabilizing the real estate market, and resolving local government debt risks. Overseas, the Fed's policy direction and the US economic data affect market expectations [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The Fed's rate cut and bond - buying decision are negative for the US dollar index. The central economic work conference aims to keep the RMB exchange rate stable, and the RMB is expected to appreciate in the short - term due to seasonal factors [2]. - **Stock Index**: The central economic work conference is expected to boost market sentiment, and large - cap stock indexes are expected to outperform [4]. - **Treasury Bond**: The bond market has room for growth in the medium - term, and it is recommended to hold long - term positions [5]. - **Container Shipping European Line**: The price is expected to be supported before the Spring Festival, but there are both long and short factors in the market, and short - term fluctuations may intensify [6]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: The prices of platinum and palladium rose due to the Fed's rate cut. In the medium - to long - term, the prices are expected to be boosted by factors such as central bank gold purchases and investment demand. Platinum is recommended to be bought on dips, and palladium is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term [9][10]. - **Gold & Silver**: The prices of gold and silver rose. Silver is in an easy - to - rise and difficult - to - fall pattern. In the short - term, gold is expected to be strong and volatile, and silver is recommended to be sold on rallies. In the medium - to long - term, both are expected to rise [10][12]. - **Copper**: The copper price is supported by the Fed's rate cut, and it is recommended to hold long positions [13]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The aluminum market is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short - term; the alumina market is expected to be weak; and the cast aluminum alloy market is expected to fluctuate strongly [14]. - **Zinc**: The zinc market is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short - term [16]. - **Tin**: The tin market is expected to be strong and volatile in the short - term [17]. - **Lead**: The lead market is expected to fluctuate [17]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The steel product market is expected to fluctuate within a certain range, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction speed and downstream consumption [18][19]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price is expected to have limited downward space, and it is affected by macro - factors and fundamentals [19][20]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: The coking coal and coke market is under pressure in the short - term, and it is recommended to hold short positions in coking coal and avoid shorting coke blindly [23]. - **Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese**: The ferroalloy market is expected to be weak and volatile, and attention should be paid to the possibility of price rebounds due to production cuts [25]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The oil price is affected by geopolitical tensions and fundamentals, and the short - term price is mainly affected by the US - Venezuela situation [27][28]. - **LPG**: The LPG market is driven down by multiple factors, including the decline in oil prices, weakening fundamentals, and increased warehouse receipts [29][30]. - **PTA - PX**: The PX - PTA market has no obvious driving force in the short - term, and it is expected to follow the commodity sentiment and cost - side fluctuations [30][33]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: The ethylene glycol market is expected to be under pressure in the medium - to long - term, and it is recommended to short on rallies [33][34]. - **Methanol**: The methanol market is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to hold short - call options and 1 - 5 reverse spreads [36]. - **PP**: The PP market is not recommended to be shorted further at the current valuation, and attention should be paid to the PDH device operation and the spot market [38][39]. - **PE**: The PE market is expected to maintain a bottom - level shock in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the spot market and basis changes [40][42]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: The pure benzene - styrene market is expected to be volatile, with pure benzene showing a near - weak and far - strong pattern and styrene showing a near - strong and far - weak pattern [42][44]. - **Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil market is recommended to be observed, with the high - sulfur fuel oil market showing stable supply and weak demand, and the low - sulfur fuel oil market having improved fundamentals [45][46]. - **Rubber**: The rubber market is expected to fluctuate narrowly, and the synthetic rubber is relatively strong. It is recommended to observe the natural rubber - synthetic rubber spread [51][52]. - **Urea**: The urea market is expected to fluctuate, with high supply and export policy regulation affecting the price [52][53]. - **Soda Ash & Glass**: The soda ash market is expected to be under pressure due to over - supply expectations, and the glass market is affected by cold - repair expectations [54][55]. - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda market is expected to be weak and volatile, with limited fundamental support and weakening demand [56][57]. - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The pulp and offset paper markets are recommended to be observed, with the pulp price expected to fluctuate and the offset paper being affected by the pulp price and supply [57][58]. - **Log**: The log market is not recommended to be shorted at the current price, and attention should be paid to the 01 - 03 reverse spread [59]. - **Propylene**: The propylene market is expected to be weak and volatile, with a loose supply - demand situation and cost - side support [60][61]. Agricultural Products - **Oilseeds**: The oilseed market is expected to continue the positive spread trend, with the external soybean market likely to fluctuate near the cost line, and the domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal markets affected by supply and demand factors [62]. - **Oils**: The oil market is expected to continue to fluctuate in a range, with palm oil being weak, rapeseed oil being strong, and soybean oil being weak [63][64]. - **Cotton**: The cotton market is recommended to be long on dips, with the short - term domestic downstream showing resilience and the overall supply being tight [65]. - **Sugar**: The sugar market is expected to be weak, affected by global supply pressure [65][66]. - **Apple**: The apple market is expected to be strong, and the 01 contract hit a new high [67][68]. - **Jujube**: The jujube market is expected to have limited downward space, and attention should be paid to downstream pre - holiday purchases [69].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas markets focus on the Fed's policy trends and the expected appointment of the next Fed Chair. The market anticipates more aggressive rate cuts if Hassett is elected, but there is uncertainty due to Powell's term, economic factors, and inflation. Asset prices will show structural differentiation. Domestically, the economy shows marginal improvement, but the foundation for growth is not yet solid, and attention should be paid to the pace of policy implementation [2]. - The Fed's rate cut and bond - buying are interpreted as "QE - like" measures, which are negative for the US dollar index. The RMB exchange rate is affected by US economic data, the appointment of the next Fed Chair, and domestic economic policies. Seasonal settlement effects may support the RMB's appreciation [4]. - The current inflation data supports low interest rates, and the bond market has rebounded. Although there are rumors of mortgage subsidy policies, the bond market reaction is limited. The medium - term bond market still has room for growth [5]. - The container shipping market on the European route has a mix of long and short factors. There is a possibility of price cuts in late December, and the price of the 02 contract may be pushed up due to the shipping companies' price - holding intentions [6][7]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, platinum and palladium are expected to have their price centers lifted in the medium and long term, while copper prices will be mainly driven by fundamentals after the Fed's rate cut. Aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong in the long term, while alumina is expected to be weak. Zinc will maintain a high - level shock, tin will be in a wide - range shock, and lithium carbonate will have a short - term callback pressure [11][13][15]. - In the energy and chemical market, oil prices are affected by the US - Venezuela tension and the Fed's rate cut. LPG will maintain a shock, PTA - PX will follow the weakening of demand and commodity sentiment, MEG - bottle chips will face a decline in terminal demand, and urea will be in a range between fundamentals and policies [34][37][40]. - In the agricultural products market, the supply and demand of live pigs in the peak season need to be verified, the oilseeds market is in a positive spread, the oil market will continue to be sorted, cotton prices may have room to rise, sugar prices will remain weak, egg prices have a long - term over - capacity problem, apple prices will remain strong, and jujube prices will be in a low - level shock [73][74][76]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, and the market focuses on the appointment of the next Fed Chair. China's November CPI rose year - on - year, and the real estate sector had a significant rise in the afternoon session [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the Fed's rate cut and bond - buying are negative for the US dollar index. Attention should be paid to US economic data and domestic economic policies [3][4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market rebounded, and the current inflation data supports low interest rates. The medium - term bond market still has room for growth [5]. - **Container Shipping on the European Route**: The market has a mix of long and short factors, and there is a possibility of price cuts in late December [6][7]. Commodities Non - Ferrous Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: Prices oscillated and corrected. The Fed's rate cut and bond - buying are factors, and in the medium and long term, the price centers are expected to be lifted [11]. - **Gold and Silver**: The market generally rose, and in the short term, it is expected to be in shock, while in the long term, it is expected to rise [12][13]. - **Copper**: Prices were strongly sorted, and after the Fed's rate cut, they were mainly driven by fundamentals [14][15]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong in the long term, alumina is expected to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile and strong [15][16]. - **Zinc**: Prices maintained a high - level shock [17][18]. - **Tin**: Prices were affected by the conflict in Congo (Kinshasa) and are expected to be in a wide - range shock [18][19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There is short - term callback pressure, but in the long term, it has the value of bottom - fishing allocation [21]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: The fundamentals have not improved, and the prices are expected to be weak [22][23]. - **Lead**: Prices are expected to be in shock, with support at the bottom [24]. Steel - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Prices rebounded slightly, and the overall market is expected to be in a range shock, with the rebar in the range of 3000 - 3300 and the hot - rolled coil in the range of 3200 - 3500 [25][26]. - **Iron Ore**: Prices were affected by real - estate news, and the downward space is expected to be limited [27][28]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The second - round price cut has started, and coking coal prices are under pressure in the short term, while coke may face inventory accumulation pressure [29][30][31]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: Demand is gradually weakening, and prices are expected to be weakly shocked [32]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Prices were lifted due to the US - Venezuela tension, and the Fed's rate cut has a limited impact on prices [34][35][36]. - **LPG**: Prices maintained a shock, with a relatively stable supply and demand situation [37][38][39]. - **PTA - PX**: Prices followed the weakening of demand and commodity sentiment, and the supply - demand structure is relatively good in the energy and chemical sector [40][41][42]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: Terminal demand declined comprehensively, and supply - side negative feedback began to appear. Prices are expected to be short - term in shock and long - term in a downward trend [43][44][46]. - **Urea**: Transactions weakened, and prices are expected to be in a range shock [47][48]. - **PP**: The spot market's pessimistic sentiment dragged down prices, and further short - selling is not recommended [49][50][51]. - **PE**: The supply - increase and demand - decrease pattern continued, and prices are expected to maintain a bottom - level shock [52][53][54]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: Prices were weakly shocked, with different supply - demand situations for pure benzene and styrene [55][56]. - **Fuel Oil**: Prices were in a narrow - range shock, with a stable supply and a mixed demand situation [57]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The cracking spread was low, and the fundamentals have improved, but it is recommended to wait and see [58]. - **Asphalt**: Prices fluctuated in a narrow range, and attention should be paid to the winter - storage policy [59][60]. - **Rubber**: Rubber prices rebounded due to weather disturbances and geopolitical conflicts, and are expected to be in a range shock [61][62]. - **Soda Ash and Caustic Soda**: Soda ash prices are under pressure due to over - supply expectations; glass prices are affected by cold - repair expectations and inventory levels; caustic soda prices are expected to be weakly shocked [65][66][67]. - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: Pulp futures prices reached a four - month high, and both pulp and offset paper are recommended to wait and see [67][68]. - **Log**: Newly registered warehouse receipts suppressed the price, and it is recommended to participate with caution [69][70]. - **Propylene**: Prices were weakly shocked, with a relatively loose supply - demand situation [71][72]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The supply and demand in the peak season need to be verified, and the long - term trend can be bullish, but the short - term is mainly based on fundamentals [73]. - **Oilseeds**: The positive spread continued, and the market is affected by import and domestic supply - demand situations [74][75]. - **Oils**: The MPOB report was negative, and prices are expected to continue to be sorted [76]. - **Cotton**: Prices broke through the pressure level, and if they hold steady, there may be further upward space [77]. - **Sugar**: Prices remained weak [78][79]. - **Eggs**: The long - term egg - laying hen capacity is still in excess, and short - term rebounds can be lightly speculated [80]. - **Apples**: The near - month contract was strong, and the overall market remained strong [81][82]. - **Jujubes**: Prices were in a low - level shock, and the short - term downward space may be limited [83][84].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Overseas markets are focused on the Federal Reserve's policy direction, with a high probability that Hassett will be the next Fed Chair. Market anticipates more aggressive rate cuts after his appointment, but implementation is uncertain due to factors like Powell's term, economy, and inflation, leading to a structural differentiation in asset prices. The market has fully priced in a rate cut in December's Fed meeting, and investors need to be wary of "selling the fact" trades and subsequent adjustments in rate cut expectations. Meanwhile, pay attention to the impact of November's non - farm payroll data on policy expectations. In China, the November manufacturing PMI rebounded to 49.2%, mainly benefiting from the rebound in external demand. The narrowing of the supply - demand gap and the recovery of the price index confirm the marginal improvement of the economy, but the PMI is still below the boom - bust line, indicating that the foundation for economic improvement is not yet solid. The Politburo meeting set a positive tone, and subsequent attention should be paid to the pace of policy implementation [2]. - The unexpectedly improved US employment indicators drove the US dollar index up. The Fed's upcoming meeting is likely to feature a "hawkish rate cut," with limited negative impact on the US dollar. In China, positive macro - policies support the RMB against the US dollar. Future focus should be on US economic data in November, the appointment of the next Fed Chair, the Central Economic Work Conference, and domestic enterprises' willingness to settle foreign exchange [3]. - In the short term, it is recommended that export enterprises lock in forward exchange settlement at around 7.10, while import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at around 7.05 [4]. - The stock index market remains cautious before all important meetings are concluded. It is expected that the market volatility will increase this week, and the operation idea remains neutral - to - bullish, but beware of the A - share market's downward pressure if the signals from domestic and foreign meetings fall short of expectations [5]. - The short - term rebound space of treasury bonds is limited. Although the Politburo meeting's tone on monetary policy has calmed the market, the short - term monetary policy may not be loosened quickly. The medium - term policy still has room, so there is no need to be overly pessimistic. It is recommended to hold medium - term long positions [6]. - For container shipping on the European line, the implementation of the spot market price increase plan remains the focus. The market is affected by a combination of macro sentiment and geopolitical situation. The price may fluctuate in the short term due to the coexistence of long and short factors [7][9]. - For precious metals, in the medium - to - long - term, central bank gold purchases and the growth prospects of investment demand will push up the price of precious metals. It is recommended to pay attention to the abnormal term structure of platinum and buy on dips. Palladium is expected to maintain a wide - range volatile market in the short term. Gold and silver are expected to maintain a volatile and consolidating trend in the short term and rise in the long term [11][13]. - For copper, the market's expectation of a rate cut in 2026 has cooled, and copper prices are adjusting at a high level. The short - term strategy is to observe more and act less in the next two days, and enterprises in need of raw materials can look for opportunities to buy [15][18]. - For the aluminum industry chain, aluminum is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term; alumina is expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile and bullish. Zinc is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend in the short term; tin is expected to have a wide - range volatile market, and it is recommended to enter the market on dips; lead is expected to be strongly volatile [18][19][20]. - For black commodities, steel products are expected to trade in a range. The operating range of rebar may be between 3000 - 3300, and that of hot - rolled coil may be between 3200 - 3500. Iron ore prices are expected to have limited downward space. Coking coal and coke prices are under short - term pressure. Ferroalloys are expected to be volatile and weak [22][23][27]. - For energy and chemical products, crude oil prices are in an oscillating downward trend in the medium - to - long - term. LPG is expected to maintain a volatile trend. PX - PTA and MEG - bottle chips are expected to follow the commodity sentiment and cost - side fluctuations. Methanol 01 contract is expected to have a weak outlook. PP and PE are expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend in the short term. Pure benzene - styrene is expected to be in an oscillating and consolidating state. Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil are recommended to be watched. Asphalt is expected to be volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to the winter storage policy. Rubber is expected to be in a range - bound volatile market. Urea is expected to continue an oscillating trend. Soda ash, glass, and caustic soda are expected to be weak. Pulp may have a certain downward space, and offset paper can be slightly chased for long. Logs are expected to have low - volatility oscillations and low trading volume. Propylene is expected to be in a weakly volatile trend [29][30][31][37][38][41][44][46][47][48][49][50][52][53][54][56][57][58][59][61][63][67]. - For agricultural products, for live pigs, the long - term can be bullish, but the short - to - medium - term is mainly based on fundamentals. For oilseeds, the external soybean market is expected to be weakly volatile, and the internal soybean meal market has limited downward space. For oils and fats, the market is expected to be in an oscillating state, waiting for data guidance. For cotton, the downward space is limited, and attention should be paid to the breakthrough of the hedging pressure level around 13800. For sugar, the price is expected to remain weak. For eggs, the long - term egg - laying hen capacity is still in surplus, and the price pressure is relatively large. For apples, the overall trend is strong. For jujubes, the short - term downward space may be limited, and attention should be paid to the downstream pre - holiday procurement [68][69][70][71][72][73][74][75][76][77]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The US employment indicators unexpectedly improved. Overseas market focuses on the Fed's policy direction and the next Fed Chair appointment. The market anticipates a rate cut in December, but there is uncertainty. In China, the November manufacturing PMI rebounded, and the Politburo meeting set a positive tone for policies [1][2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The unexpectedly improved US employment indicators drove the US dollar index up. The Fed's meeting may feature a "hawkish rate cut." China's positive macro - policies support the RMB. Attention should be paid to US economic data, Fed Chair appointment, Central Economic Work Conference, and domestic enterprises' willingness to settle foreign exchange [3]. - **Stock Index**: The market is cautious before all important meetings. It is expected that market volatility will increase this week, and the operation idea is neutral - to - bullish, but beware of downward pressure if meeting signals fall short of expectations [4][5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The short - term rebound space of treasury bonds is limited. The Politburo meeting's tone on monetary policy has calmed the market, but short - term monetary policy may not be loosened quickly. It is recommended to hold medium - term long positions [6]. - **Container Shipping on the European Line**: The implementation of the spot market price increase plan is the focus. The market is affected by macro sentiment and geopolitical situation, with short - term price fluctuations due to long and short factors [7][9]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Platinum and Palladium**: They oscillated upward. In the medium - to - long - term, central bank gold purchases and investment demand growth will push up prices. It is recommended to pay attention to platinum's term structure and buy on dips. Palladium is expected to be volatile in the short term [11]. - **Gold and Silver**: Silver reached a new high. The short - term is expected to be volatile and consolidating, and the long - term is expected to rise. Attention should be paid to the Fed's FOMC meeting, COMEX contract delivery, and other factors [13][14]. - **Copper**: The market's expectation of a 2026 rate cut has cooled, and copper prices are adjusting at a high level. The short - term strategy is to observe more and act less, and enterprises in need of raw materials can look for buying opportunities [15][18]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term; alumina is expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile and bullish [18][19]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to maintain a high - level volatile trend in the short term, with strong short - term fundamental support and limited downward space [19]. - **Tin**: It is expected to have a wide - range volatile market, and it is recommended to enter the market on dips. Attention should be paid to the Fed's rate - meeting expectations [20]. - **Lead**: It is expected to be strongly volatile, with support from the cost of recycled lead and the demand for automobile batteries [21]. Black Commodities - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: They are in a weak and volatile state. The overall steel price is expected to trade in a range, and attention should be paid to the inventory removal speed and downstream consumption [22][23]. - **Iron Ore**: The price has limited downward space, with support from steel mills' pre - holiday restocking demand. Attention should be paid to the Fed's and domestic economic work meetings [24][25]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal prices are under short - term pressure, and coke may face inventory accumulation pressure. Attention should be paid to steel mills' price - cut rhythm [26][27]. - **Ferroalloys**: They are expected to be volatile and weak, facing the contradiction of high inventory and weak demand [27][28]. Energy and Chemical Products - **Crude Oil**: The geopolitical premium has subsided, and prices are falling. The medium - to - long - term supply surplus pressure remains, and the price is in an oscillating downward trend [29][30]. - **LPG**: It is expected to maintain a volatile trend, affected by fundamentals, macro, and geopolitical factors [30][31]. - **PX - PTA**: They are weakening with the decline in demand and commodity sentiment. The short - term is expected to follow the commodity sentiment and cost - side fluctuations, and attention should be paid to PTA device dynamics [31][34]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The terminal demand is declining, and the supply - side negative feedback is emerging. The price is expected to be under pressure in the medium - to - long - term, and it is recommended to short on rallies [35][37]. - **Methanol**: The 01 contract is expected to have a weak outlook. Attention should be paid to Iran's shipping speed, inland supply - demand after Jiutai's recovery, and Lianhong's startup [38]. - **PP**: The valuation is extremely compressed, and further shorting is not recommended. Attention should be paid to PDH device operation changes and the spot market [39][41]. - **PE**: It is in a situation of increasing supply and decreasing demand, and the short - term is expected to maintain a bottom - oscillating trend. Attention should be paid to the spot market and basis changes [42][44]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: They are in an oscillating and consolidating state. Pure benzene has a near - weak and far - strong pattern, while styrene has a near - strong and far - weak pattern [45][46]. - **Fuel Oil**: The cracking is weak, and it is recommended to watch [47]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The cracking is low, and it is recommended to watch [48]. - **Asphalt**: Attention should be paid to the winter storage policy. The short - term is expected to be volatile, and options or basis trading can be considered [49][50]. - **Rubber**: The supply - demand pressure is large, and it is expected to be in a range - bound volatile market. Attention should be paid to the support at the previous low [50][52]. - **Urea**: It is expected to continue an oscillating trend, with high supply pressure but supported by export policies [53][54]. - **Soda Ash, Glass, and Caustic Soda**: They are expected to be weak. Soda ash has an increasing surplus expectation; glass's near - month contract follows the reality, and the far - month is affected by cold - repair expectations; caustic soda's demand is weakening and the supply is high [54][56][57][58][59]. - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: Pulp may have a certain downward space, and offset paper can be slightly chased for long. Attention should be paid to inventory and downstream demand [59][61]. - **Logs**: They are in a low - volatility oscillating state with low trading volume. Attention should be paid to the impact of Sino - Japanese relations on Japanese cedar imports [61][63]. - **Propylene**: It is expected to be in a weakly volatile trend, with a weak fundamental situation and cost - side support [66][67]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The long - term can be bullish, but the short - to - medium - term is based on fundamentals. The near - month has出栏 pressure, and the far - month is affected by expectations [68]. - **Oilseeds**: The external soybean market is expected to be weakly volatile, and the internal soybean meal market has limited downward space. Attention should be paid to the US soybean procurement progress and domestic supply expectations [68][69][70]. - **Oils and Fats**: The market is expected to be in an oscillating state, waiting for data guidance. Attention should be paid to the origin's weather and policies [69][70][71]. - **Cotton**: The downward space is limited, and attention should be paid to the breakthrough of the hedging pressure level around 13800 [71][72]. - **Sugar**: The price is expected to remain weak, affected by the supply pressure from major producing countries [73][74]. - **Eggs**: The long - term egg - laying hen capacity is in surplus, and the price pressure is large. The short - term may have a rebound, and it is recommended to go long with a light position [75]. - **Apples**: The overall trend is strong, with the 01 contract being strong and the 05 contract falling [76]. - **Jujubes**: The short - term downward space may be limited, and attention should be paid to the downstream pre - holiday procurement [77].