Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The copper price's rise and fall on Wednesday were closely related to the US economy. The unusual simultaneous rise of copper, gold, the US dollar index, and crude oil at night, along with a significant decline in US stocks, and a sharp increase in long - term bond yields in Europe and the US, led to an over - rise. The copper price fell after the opening on Wednesday. Considering the relatively tight supply and the US economic pressure stimulating the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, the copper price may remain strong in the short term [4]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Copper Price Volatility and Risk Management - The latest copper price is 79,770 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 7.61%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 4.1% [3]. - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and concern about price drops, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai copper main - contract futures at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the CU2511C82000 call options when volatility is relatively stable. For raw - material management with low raw - material inventory and concern about price increases, it is recommended to buy 75% of the Shanghai copper main - contract futures at around 78,000 yuan/ton [3]. Factors Affecting Copper Prices - **Liduo Factors**: The US reaching a tariff - policy agreement with other countries, an increase in interest - rate cut expectations leading to a decline in the US dollar index and boosting non - ferrous metal valuations, and a rise in the lower support level [5][7]. - **Lidkong Factors**: Fluctuations in tariff policies, a decrease in global demand due to tariff policies, and an extremely high COMEX inventory caused by the US copper tariff - policy adjustment [6][7]. Copper Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Data**: The latest price of the Shanghai copper main contract is 79,770 yuan/ton, with no daily change. The Shanghai copper continuous - one contract is 79,770 yuan/ton, down 340 yuan (- 0.42%); the Shanghai copper continuous - three contract is 79,680 yuan/ton, with no change; the LME copper 3M is 9,891.5 US dollars/ton, down 82.5 US dollars (- 0.83%). The Shanghai - London ratio is 8.14, down 0.02 (- 0.25%) [6][8]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper, Shanghai Wumaomao, Guangdong Nanchu, and Yangtze Non - ferrous are 80,190 yuan/ton, 80,125 yuan/ton, 80,000 yuan/ton, and 80,230 yuan/ton respectively, all showing a decline. The spot premiums also decreased [9]. Copper Refined - Scrap Spread - The current refined - scrap spread (tax - included) is 1,585.74 yuan/ton, down 177.24 yuan (- 10.05%); the reasonable refined - scrap spread (tax - included) is 1,499.9 yuan/ton, down 3.9 yuan (- 0.26%); the price advantage (tax - included) is 85.84 yuan/ton, down 173.34 yuan (- 66.88%). Similar declines are seen in the non - tax - included data [13]. Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total Shanghai copper warehouse receipts are 19,829 tons, up 358 tons (1.84%); the total international copper warehouse receipts are 5,322 tons, down 100 tons (- 1.84%) [15]. - **Inventory**: The total LME copper inventory is 158,375 tons, down 200 tons (- 0.13%); the total COMEX copper inventory is 302,744 tons, up 28,977 tons (10.58%) [17][18]. Copper Import Profit and Processing - The copper import profit is - 47.85 yuan/ton, up 5.33 yuan (- 10.02%); the copper concentrate TC is - 40.6 US dollars/ton, with no change [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term weak and volatile pattern of the container shipping market continues, and shipping companies are gradually announcing blank sailings for the Golden Week [2]. - Today, the futures prices of each contract of the container shipping index (European line) continued the weak and volatile trend. The prices of EC contracts showed mixed changes. The EC2510 contract is likely to continue to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see for the time being [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs EC Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - For those with purchased shipping space but full capacity or poor booking volume, worried about falling freight rates, it is recommended to short the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at 1350 - 1450 to lock in profits [2]. - For shipping companies with increased blank sailing efforts or approaching the peak season, to prevent rising freight rates and increased transportation costs, it is recommended to buy the container shipping index futures (EC2510) at 1150 - 1250 to determine booking costs in advance [2]. Core Contradictions - The futures prices of each contract of the container shipping index (European line) continued the weak and volatile trend. As of the close, the prices of EC contracts showed mixed changes. The long positions of the EC2510 contract decreased by 780 lots to 27,222 lots, the short positions decreased by 1300 lots to 30,668 lots, and the trading volume increased by 1140 lots to 29,546 lots (bilateral) [2]. - CMA CGM has continuously lowered the European line quotes for September, and the futures price weakened and fluctuated as expected following the decline of the spot cabin quotes on the European line. However, there are still uncertainties, including the uncertainty of US tariffs and the gradually announced blank sailing plans of major shipping companies for the Golden Week, which support the futures price from the supply side [2]. Bullish Interpretations - On August 29th local time, the US Federal Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that most of the global tariff measures implemented by former President Trump were illegal. These additional tariff measures can remain in effect until October 14th to allow the US government to appeal to the Supreme Court [3]. - On September 1st local time, due to the expected slowdown in demand during the Golden Week holiday, MSC plans to adjust the shipping capacity on the Asia - Europe route from Week 39 to Week 41, canceling a total of four voyages [3]. Bearish Interpretations - MSK's new weekly cabin opening quotes continued to decline, with the decline basically remaining the same [4]. - CMA CGM's spot cabin quotes on the European line in early September continued to decline [4]. EC Basis Daily Changes - On September 5, 2025, the basis of EC2510 was 472.90 points, with a daily increase of 22.30 points and a weekly decrease of 232.30 points; the basis of EC2512 was 97.60 points, with a daily increase of 25.20 points and a weekly decrease of 321.60 points; and so on for other contracts [5]. EC Price and Spread - On September 5, 2025, the closing price of EC2510 was 1300.7 points, with a daily decline of 1.69% and a weekly increase of 1.22%; the closing price of EC2512 was 1676.0 points, with a daily decline of 1.48% and a weekly increase of 6.68%; and so on for other contracts. Also shows the price differences between different contracts [5]. Container Shipping Spot Cabin Quotes - On September 15, for Maersk's shipping schedule from Shanghai to Rotterdam, the total quote for 20GP was $1092, an increase of $5 compared to the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $1827, an increase of $11. On September 18, the total quote for 20GP was $1040, an increase of $5, and the total quote for 40GP was $1740, an increase of $10 [7]. - For CMA CGM's shipping schedule from Shanghai to Rotterdam in the next two weeks, the total quote for 20GP was $1210, a decrease of $100 compared to the previous period, and the total quote for 40GP was $2020, a decrease of $200 [7]. Global Freight Rate Index - The SCFIS for the European route was 1773.6 points, a decrease of 216.6 points or 10.88% compared to the previous value; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1013.9 points, a decrease of 27.48 points or 2.64% [7]. - The SCFI for the European route was $1481 per TEU, a decrease of $187 or 11.21%; the SCFI for the US - West route was $1923 per FEU, an increase of $279 or 16.97% [7]. - The XSI for the European line was $2421 per FEU, a decrease of $31 or 1.26%; the XSI for the US - West line was $2034 per FEU, an increase of $96 or 5.0% [7]. - The FBX comprehensive freight rate index was $1997 per FEU, an increase of $16 or 0.81% [7]. Global Major Port Waiting Times - On September 4, 2025, the waiting time at Hong Kong Port was 0.360 days, a decrease of 0.098 days compared to the previous day; the waiting time at Shanghai Port was 1.420 days, a decrease of 0.378 days; and so on for other ports [14]. Ship Speed and Number of Container Ships Waiting at Suez Canal Port Anchorage - On September 4, 2025, the average speed of container ships over 8000 TEU was 15.769 knots, a decrease of 0.055 knots compared to the previous day; the average speed of container ships over 3000 TEU was 14.765 knots, an increase of 0.013 knots; the average speed of container ships over 1000 TEU was 13.323 knots, an increase of 0.183 knots [22]. - The number of ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchorage was 15, the same as the previous day [22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish. Short - term, London gold and silver weekly lines continue to close with large bullish candles, indicating a strong pattern. London gold has broken through the 3450 - 3500 resistance and can be further expected to reach 3700. London silver has broken through the 39.5 - 40 integer - level resistance, and the next target is raised to the 44 - 45 area. Short - term, attention should be paid to the impact of economic data fluctuations on precious metal prices. The operation strategy remains to buy on dips, and existing long positions should be held [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, the precious metals market fluctuated and adjusted. The US dollar index slightly declined, the 10Y US Treasury yield decreased, European and American stocks generally rebounded, Bitcoin dropped, and crude oil was weak. The COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3602.4 per ounce, down 0.91%; the US silver 2512 contract closed at $41.315 per ounce, down 1.77%. The SHFE gold 2510 main contract closed at 812.98 yuan per gram, up 0.32%; the SHFE silver 2510 contract closed at 9773 yuan per kilogram, down 0.14% [2]. - The US ADP employment data and weekly initial jobless claims released on Thursday evening provided evidence for cooling the US job market and boosted the expectation of interest - rate cuts. The US ISM services PMI expansion speed reached the fastest in half a year, with weak corporate employment and high prices [2]. 3.2 Interest - Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - The expectation of interest - rate cuts within the year continues to rise. According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability that the Fed will keep the interest rate unchanged in September is 0.6%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 99.4%. In October, the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 0.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 44.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 55.3%. In December, the probability of keeping the interest rate unchanged is 0%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 5.8%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 45.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 48.4% [2]. - In terms of long - term funds, the SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 2.3 tons to 982 tons; the iShares Silver ETF holdings decreased by 50.8 tons to 15230.6 tons. The SHFE silver inventory increased by 32.9 tons to 1259.9 tons per day; as of the week ending August 29, the SGX silver inventory increased by 1.7 tons to 1283.6 tons per week [2]. 3.3 This Week's Focus This week's data is intensive, and the focus is on the US non - farm payrolls report on Friday [3]. 3.4 Price Table - The latest price of SHFE gold main continuous contract is 812.98 yuan per gram, down 1.9 yuan, or 0.23%. The latest price of SGX gold TD is 809 yuan per gram, down 0.97 yuan, or 0.12%. The latest price of CME gold main contract is $3602.4 per ounce, down $17.3, or 0.48%. The latest price of SHFE silver main continuous contract is 9773 yuan per kilogram, down 47 yuan, or 0.48%. The latest price of SGX silver TD is 9770 yuan per kilogram, down 10 yuan, or 0.1%. The latest price of CME silver main contract is $41.315 per ounce, down $0.495, or 1.18%. The CME gold - silver ratio is 87.1935, up 0.6185, or 0.71% [4][5]. 3.5 Inventory and Position Table - The SHFE gold inventory is 43254 kilograms, up 3003 kilograms, or 7.46%. The CME gold inventory is 1211.7239 tons, unchanged. The SHFE gold position is 136664 lots, down 5666 lots, or 3.98%. The SPDR gold position is 981.97 tons, down 2.29 tons, or 0.23%. The SHFE silver inventory is 1259.949 tons, up 32.91 tons, or 2.68%. The CME silver inventory is 16093.3703 tons, up 41.8578 tons, or 0.26%. The SGX silver inventory is 1283.61 tons, up 1.755 tons, or 0.14%. The SHFE silver position is 248568 lots, down 22024 lots, or 8.14%. The SLV silver position is 15230.565366 tons, down 50.8324 tons, or 0.33% [13]. 3.6 Stock, Bond, and Commodity Overview - The US dollar index is 98.2917, up 0.1316, or 0.13%. The US dollar against the Chinese yuan is 7.1419, up 0.0022, or 0.03%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is 45621.29 points, up 350.06 points, or 0.77%. The WTI crude oil spot price is $63.48 per barrel, down $0.49, or 0.77%. The LmeS copper 03 price is $9891.5 per ton, down $82.5, or 0.83%. The 10Y US Treasury yield is 4.17%, down 0.05%, or 1.18%. The 10Y US real interest rate is 1.79%, down 0.03%, or 1.65%. The 10 - 2Y US Treasury yield spread is 0.58%, down 0.03%, or 4.92% [17].

南华期货硅产业链企业风险管理日报 2025年09月04日 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 工业硅价格区间 | 品种 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 工业硅主力合约 | 强支撑位：8200 | 27.6% | 77.6% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 硅产业企业风险管理策略 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 操作思路 | 套保工具 | 操作建议 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 采购管理 | 产品价格无相关性：未来有生产多晶 硅/有机硅/铝合金的计划，担心未来 采购工业硅时价格上涨导致采购成本 | 为防止成本上涨，企业根据生产计划 | 期货 | 买入对应期货合约 | 60% | 7900-8400 | | | | 需买入对应生产计划的期货合约锁定 | | | | | ...

沈玮玮（F03140197） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 LPG日报 LPG产业风险管理日报 2025/09/04 戴一帆（投资咨询证书：Z0015428） LPG价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分比（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | LPG | 4200-4500 | 11.58% | 0.52% | source： 同花顺,南华研究 LPG套保策略表 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 库存过高，担心价格 下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的 库存情况，做空PG期货来锁定利润，弥补 企业的生产成本 | PG2510 | 卖出 | 50% | 4400-4500 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降低成本，若现 货价格上涨还可以锁定卖出价格 | PG2510C4 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - There is a contradiction between macro expectations and industrial logic, and there are temporary differences in far - month pricing without a clear direction [2] - For glass, the mid - upstream inventory is at a high level, the phased restocking ability is weak, and the market is in a state from weak balance to weak surplus. For纯碱, the pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for glass is 1000 - 1400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 22.99% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 54.2%. For纯碱, the price range is 1100 - 1500, with a volatility of 26.73% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 42.3% [1] Hedging Strategies Glass - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, sell FG2601 futures at 1450 with a 50% ratio and sell FG601C1420 call options at 50 - 60 with a 50% ratio. For procurement management with low regular inventory, buy FG2601 futures at 1100 - 1150 with a 50% ratio and sell FG601P1100 put options at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio [1] 纯碱 - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, sell SA2601 futures at 1550 - 1600 with a 50% ratio and sell SA601C1500 call options at 60 - 70 with a 50% ratio. For procurement management with low regular inventory, buy SA2601 futures at 1200 - 1250 with a 50% ratio and sell SA601P1200 put options at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio [1] Core Contradictions - There is a contradiction between macro expectations and industrial logic, and there are differences in far - month pricing direction [2] 利多 and 利空 Analysis - **利多**: Cost has an upward expectation affecting far - month pricing, and policy expectations cannot be completely excluded [2] - **利空**: The mid - upstream inventory of glass and 纯碱 is high, and the downstream's ability to absorb is questionable [2] Glass Fundamentals - The mid - upstream inventory is at a high level, and the phased restocking ability is weak. The daily melting volume on the supply side is stable at around 15.9 - 16 tons with a slight upward expectation. The cumulative apparent demand from January to August decreased by 7%, and the spot market is in a state from weak balance to weak surplus [2][3] 纯碱 Fundamentals - The medium - and long - term supply is expected to remain high. The normal maintenance continues, and the commissioning of Yuanxing Phase II is a focus this year. The fundamentals of photovoltaic glass have improved, and the spot price is expected to rise further. The overall rigid demand for 纯碱 is stable, and the supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [3] Price and Spread Data Glass - On September 5, 2025, the 05 contract price was 1236, the 09 contract price was 950, and the 01 contract price was 1139. The 5 - 9 month - spread was 286, the 9 - 1 month - spread was - 189, and the 1 - 5 month - spread was - 97 [4] 纯碱 - On September 5, 2025, the 05 contract price was 1357, the 09 contract price was 1160, and the 01 contract price was 1277. The 5 - 9 month - spread was 197, the 9 - 1 month - spread was - 117, and the 1 - 5 month - spread was - 80 [6] Spot Price Data Glass - On September 4, 2025, the average price of沙河 glass was 1124, and prices in various regions were mostly stable [5] 纯碱 - On September 4, 2025, the heavy - alkali market prices in different regions were mostly stable, with the price in沙河 rising from 1176 to 1192 [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - According to the closing prices of adjacent trading days, the Nanhua Composite Index fell by -0.41% today [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Index Performance - **Plate Index**: The Nanhua Black Index had the largest increase, rising 0.5%, while the Nanhua Metal Index had the smallest increase, rising 0.15%. The Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index had the largest decline, falling -1%, and the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index had the smallest decline, falling -0.22% [1]. - **Theme Index**: The Black Raw Materials Index had the largest increase, rising 0.72%, and the Building Materials Index had the smallest increase, rising 0.31%. The Energy Index had the largest decline, falling -2.02%, and the Coal - Chemical Index had the smallest decline, falling -0.1% [1]. - **Single - Variety Index**: The specific information about the largest - rising single - variety index is not fully provided. The largest - falling single - variety index was the jujube index, with a decline of -3.66% [3]. Industry Chain and Variety Performance - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: Some varieties' single - variety index daily changes are as follows: synthetic ammonia -0.17%, polyethylene -0.86%, methanol -1.13%, naphtha -1.61%, LPG -2.37%, and styrene -2.37%, while flowers had an increase of 0.14% [2]. - **Black Sector**: Some varieties' single - variety index daily changes are as follows: certain products had a -0.75% change [2]. - **Agricultural Products Sector**: Some varieties' single - variety index daily changes are as follows: palm oil 0.23%, rapeseed oil 0.12%, rapeseed -0.08%, and live pigs 1.27% [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests a band - trading approach for treasury bond futures. It indicates that the bond market may enter a period of oscillation as the 10 - year treasury bond yield faces significant resistance around 1.75%. It advises against chasing high prices and recommends taking profit on previous long positions [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Market Conditions - On Thursday, treasury bond futures opened higher across the board, with narrow intraday fluctuations. Medium - and long - term bonds closed higher, while short - term bonds weakened at the end of the session. Spot bond yields first declined and then rose, with most turning upward by the end of the day. The open market had a net withdrawal of 20.35 billion yuan, and the funds were loose, with DR001 remaining at 1.31% [1] 3.2. Intraday News - The second group leader meeting of the Ministry of Finance and the central bank aims to jointly ensure the better implementation of fiscal and monetary policies - Bloomberg reported that China is considering measures to curb stock market speculation and seek stable development of the A - share market - Federal Reserve Governor Waller suggested starting interest rate cuts this month and multiple cuts in the next 3 - 6 months, with the pace depending on data [2] 3.3. Market Judgment - The opening of spot bonds continued the upward trend from the previous day's close, driving treasury bond futures to open higher. Then, each variety basically maintained a narrow - range shock. The A - share market fell for the third consecutive day, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping by up to 2% during the session, and the previous hot sectors experiencing greater declines. However, the bond market did not gain more upward momentum. After the futures market closed, spot bonds weakened, indicating a lack of further upward drivers in the bond market [3] 3.4. Treasury Bond Futures Daily Data - **Contract Prices and Changes**: TS2512 was at 102.44 (unchanged), TF2512 at 105.745 (up 0.055), T2512 at 108.27 (up 0.15), and TL2512 at 117.4 (up 0.37) - **Contract Positions and Changes**: TS contract positions increased by 429 to 76,004 hands, TF by 3,428 to 142,981 hands, T by 4,090 to 217,136 hands, and TL decreased by 2,021 to 140,684 hands - **Basis and Changes**: TS basis (CTD) was - 0.0299 (down 0.0074), TF basis (CTD) was 0.0269 (down 0.0577), T basis (CTD) was 0.3866 (down 0.0537), and TL basis (CTD) was 0.8792 (up 0.1384) - **Trading Volume and Changes**: TS main contract trading volume increased by 5,941 to 31,545 hands, TF by 501 to 62,934 hands, T decreased by 2,944 to 83,913 hands, and TL decreased by 21,692 to 135,244 hands [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The recent issuance of 200,000 tons of cotton import sliding - duty processing trade quotas by the National Development and Reform Commission has limited impact on the market. Before the new cotton is listed, the low - inventory situation still supports cotton prices. With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October", the downstream finished - product inventory is further reduced, but the profit has not been significantly restored, and the overall downstream confidence is still insufficient. The strategy is to go long on dips but not to chase the rise. Attention should be paid to the listing time and opening price of new cotton and the subsequent downstream peak - season sales [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategy - **Price Range Forecast**: The predicted monthly price range for cotton is 13,800 - 14,400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.0924 and a current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) of 0.2606 [3]. - **Inventory Management Strategy**: For enterprises with high inventory worried about cotton price drops, they can short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 14,200 - 14,400. They can also sell call options (CF601C14400) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 300 - 350 to reduce costs and lock in the spot selling price if the cotton price rises [3]. - **Procurement Management Strategy**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory and wanting to purchase according to orders, they can buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 13,800 - 13,900 to lock in procurement costs in advance. They can also sell put options (CF601P13800) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 250 - 300 to reduce procurement costs and lock in the spot cotton purchase price if the cotton price drops [3]. Core Contradictions - **Inventory Support**: Due to the increase in spinning capacity in Xinjiang and a significant reduction in imported cotton this year, the downstream rigid consumption of cotton has increased, and the inventory of Xinjiang cotton has decreased rapidly. As of August 15, the domestic cotton industrial and commercial inventory was 2.7444 million tons, a decrease of 343,800 tons from the end of July, which supports cotton prices [4]. - **Downstream Seasonal Changes**: With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October", the downstream finished - product inventory is further reduced, and the load of cloth mills continues to rise slightly, showing signs of the peak season [4]. - **USDA Report Impact**: The USDA's August supply - demand forecast report lowered the US cotton production and raised China's consumption, and significantly lowered the global ending inventory [4]. Negative Factors - **Quota Issuance**: The National Development and Reform Commission issued 200,000 tons of cotton import sliding - duty processing trade quotas to supplement the market supply before the new cotton is listed [5]. - **New Cotton Outlook**: The growth progress of new cotton in Xinjiang is fast, and the overall growth is good, with an optimistic outlook for the new - year production [5]. Cotton and Cotton Yarn Futures Prices - **Cotton Futures**: Cotton 01 closed at 14,010, up 20 (0.14%); Cotton 05 closed at 13,950, unchanged; Cotton 09 closed at 13,580, up 5 (0.04%) [7]. - **Cotton Yarn Futures**: Cotton yarn 01 closed at 19,995, unchanged; Cotton yarn 05 closed at 20,215, down 100% (this data seems abnormal); Cotton yarn 09 closed at 20,100, up 475 (2.42%) [7]. Cotton and Cotton Yarn Price Spreads - **Cotton - related Spreads**: The cotton basis was 1,441, down 34; Cotton 01 - 05 spread was 60, up 20; Cotton 05 - 09 spread was 370, down 5; Cotton 09 - 01 spread was - 430, down 15 [8]. - **Other Spreads**: The cotton - yarn spread was 5,990, up 20; The domestic - foreign cotton spread was 2,216, up 140; The domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 517, unchanged [8]. Domestic and Foreign Cotton Price Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: CCI 3128B was 15,451, down 14 (- 0.09%); CCI 2227B was 13,541, down 12 (- 0.09%); CCI 2129B was 15,703, down 16 (- 0.1%) [9]. - **Foreign Indexes**: FCI Index S was 13,708, up 108 (0.79%); FCI Index M was 13,492, up 107 (0.8%); FCI Index L was 13,194, up 110 (0.84%) [9]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core View The decline in the BDI shipping market widened this week. The BCI and BPI freight rate indices continued to fall, with the decline exceeding 7%, and the increase in the BSI freight rate index continued to narrow. Only the BHSI freight rate index maintained a sharp increase. The demand for large ships has reached saturation, but the significant increase in agricultural product shipments, especially from Uruguay, may be an early stockpiling measure in response to US tariff policies, which supports the demand for (large) handy - sized ships [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 2.1 BDI Freight Rate Index Analysis - Compared with August 27th data, on September 3rd, the BDI composite freight rate index continued to weaken with an enlarged decline. The BCI and BPI freight rate indices' declines both exceeded 7%, and the increase in the BSI freight rate index narrowed. Specifically, the BDI composite freight rate index closed at 1940 points, down 5.18% week - on - week; the BCI freight rate index closed at 2773 points, down 7.23% week - on - week; the BPI freight rate index closed at 1719 points, down 8.27% week - on - week; the BSI freight rate index closed at 1467 points, up 1.38% week - on - week; the BHSI freight rate index closed at 788 points, up 5.77% week - on - week [4]. 2.2 FDI Far - East Dry Bulk Freight Rate Index - Compared with September 2nd, on September 3rd, the FDI composite index turned down. The only rising route was the capesize ship rental freight route from Australia to Zhoushan, China, with the freight increasing 0.03% on the day. The FDI composite freight rate index closed at 1329.93 points, down 1.3% month - on - month; the FDI rental index closed at 1622.47 points, down 1.89% month - on - month; the capesize ship rental index closed at 1674.63 points, down 2.55% month - on - month; the panamax ship rental index closed at 1516.52 points, down 2.37% month - on - month; the large handy - sized ship rental index closed at 1658.87 points, down 0.53% month - on - month; the FDI freight rate index closed at 1134.9 points, down 0.74% month - on - month [9]. 3.1当日发运国发运用船数量 - On September 4th, among major agricultural product shipping countries, Brazil used 44 ships, Russia used 11 ships, Argentina used 22 ships, Uruguay used 4 ships, and Australia used 0 ships. Among major industrial product shipping countries, Australia used 59 ships, Guinea used 27 ships, Indonesia used 37 ships, Russia used 21 ships, South Africa used 18 ships, Brazil used 7 ships, and the US used 10 ships [16]. 3.2当日发运量及用船分析 - In terms of agricultural product shipments, 18 ships were used for corn, 25 for wheat, 27 for soybeans, 14 for soybean meal, and 11 for sugar. In terms of industrial product shipments, 109 ships were used for coal, 65 for iron ore, and 13 for other dry goods. For agricultural product shipments, the most required were post - panamax ships (39), followed by super - handy ships (26), and then handy ships (20). For industrial product shipments, the most required were large capesize ships (76), followed by post - panamax ships (63), and then super - handy ships (57) [17]. 4.主要港口船舶数量跟踪 - The weekly data showed that the number of ships docked at all ports increased month - on - month, with the most obvious increase in Australian ports. The early - September data showed that "one port decreased, two ports increased". The number of dry - bulk ships docked at Chinese ports was expected to increase by 7 month - on - month, the number of ships at Australian ports decreased by 1 month - on - month, and the number of ships at Brazilian ports increased by 1 month - on - month [18]. 5.运费与商品价格的关系 - On September 3rd, Brazilian soybeans were at $39/ton, and on September 4th, the near - term shipping quote was 3993.74 yuan/ton. On September 2nd, the latest quote for the BCI C10_14 route freight was $25677/day, and on September 3rd, the latest quote for the iron ore CIF price was $121.6/kiloton. On September 2nd, the latest quote for the BPI P3A_03 route freight was $13519/day, and on September 3rd, the latest quote for the steam coal CIF price was 542.08 yuan/ton. On September 3rd, the handy - sized ship freight rate index was quoted at 774.4 points, and on August 29th, the CFR price of 4 - meter radiata pine ACFR was $116/cubic meter [22].