Report Overview - **Report Title**: LPG Industry Risk Management Daily Report - **Date**: November 20, 2025 - **Analyst**: Dai Yifan (Investment Consulting Certificate: Z0015428) - **Research Assistant**: Shen Weiwei (Futures Practitioner Certificate: F03140197) - **Contact Email**: shenweiwei@nawaa.com - **Investment Consulting Business Qualification**: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The core contradictions affecting LPG price trends include cost - end crude oil under supply - surplus pressure and geopolitical disturbances, with weekly crude prices oscillating between $62 - $66; the release of the November CP contract price with propane at $475/ton (-20) and butane at $460/ton (-15), indicating supply - side pressure; the start of propane destocking in the US with inventory still at a historical high; and relatively stable domestic fundamentals with low arrivals and a slight contraction in the supply side, while chemical demand remains strong in the short - term with PDH operating at a 70% - 75% rate despite compressed profits [3]. - The signing of a 2026 LPG supply agreement between Indian state - owned oil companies and the US, involving 2.2 million tons of annual imports, is a positive factor for the US supply side [3]. - Negative factors include continuous losses at the domestic PDH end, which may cause negative feedback, and the contraction of Asian cracking profits potentially reducing the demand for PG as a cracking substitute, with South Korean companies having maintenance and load - reduction plans in November and December [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 LPG Price and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for LPG is 4000 - 4500 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.86% and a historical 3 - year volatility percentage of 1.82% [2]. 3.2 LPG Hedging Strategies 3.2.1 Inventory Management - When inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, for long - position spot exposure, it is recommended to short PG2601 futures at a 25% hedging ratio in the 4400 - 4500 yuan/ton range to lock in profits and cover production costs; also, sell PG2601C4400 call options at a 25% ratio in the 60 - 70 range to collect premiums and reduce costs [2]. 3.2.2 Procurement Management - When procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, for short - position spot exposure, it is recommended to buy PG2601 futures at a 25% hedging ratio in the 4000 - 4100 yuan/ton range to lock in procurement costs; also, sell PG26014000 put options at a 25% ratio in the 30 - 50 range to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs [2]. 3.3 Industry Data Summary - A large amount of data on LPG - related prices, spreads, month - spreads, ratios, and profits are presented, including the prices of Brent, WTI, various LPG benchmarks (MOPJ, FEI, CP, etc.), their daily and weekly changes, and different profit calculations such as import profits, PDH profits, and cracking profits [6]. 3.4 Seasonal Data - Seasonal data for various indicators are provided, including price seasonality of LPG and its related benchmarks, spread seasonality, month - spread seasonality, ratio seasonality, profit seasonality, and freight seasonality [8][10][13][15][16][25][32][33][39][43][57]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the given reports. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current core contradictions affecting the propylene trend include the potential repeated submission of "anti - involution" with no actual progress, coal price weakness driving the futures market down, spot price fluctuations due to individual device operations, sufficient supply and weak demand in the PP market, and continuous losses in PDH profits [2]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the propylene market. Positive factors are that device overhauls in some enterprises such as Binhuahua, Haiwei, and Xintai have led to a rebound in spot prices. Negative factors are that PDH has not shown significant negative feedback in the short - term despite losses, and the downstream market, especially the PP market, remains weak [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Propylene Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - The monthly price range forecast for propylene is 5700 - 6200 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.121 and a 3 - year historical volatility percentage of 0.5432 [1]. - For inventory management, when the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, it is recommended to short - sell propylene futures (PL2603) at a 50% hedging ratio when the price is between 6100 - 6200 yuan/ton and short - sell call options (PL2601C6000) at a 25% ratio when the price is between 60 - 80 yuan. For procurement management, when the regular inventory is low, it is recommended to buy propylene futures (PL2603) at a 25% hedging ratio when the price is between 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton and short - sell put options (PL2601P5800) at a 25% ratio when the price is between 60 - 80 yuan [1]. 3.2 Industry Data - **Upstream raw material prices**: On November 19, 2025, Brent crude oil was at $63.16/barrel, down $1.2 from the previous day; WTI was at $59.41/barrel, down $1.16. Other upstream raw materials such as MOPJ, NWE NAP, etc., also showed price changes. For example, MOPJ was at $561.94/ton, down $9.39 [5]. - **Mid - stream propylene prices**: On November 19, 2025, the price of propylene in the East China region was 5925 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from the previous day; the price difference between CFR China and FOB South Korea remained at $35/ton [5]. - **Downstream product prices**: On November 19, 2025, the price of polypropylene powder was 6200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of polypropylene granules was 6440 yuan/ton, also unchanged. Other downstream products like acrylonitrile, acrylic acid, etc., also had corresponding price changes [5]. - **Profit situation**: Main refinery profit was 704.12 yuan/ton, and MTO monomer profit was - 179.17 yuan/ton. PDH profit was in a continuous loss state, with propylene PDH profit - FEI at - 225.20 yuan/ton [5]. - **Price difference situation**: The price difference between MOPJ and propylene was 1829.03 yuan/ton, and the price difference between PP powder and propylene was not available on November 19, 2025 [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the medium to long - term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price of precious metals. However, in the short - term, the unclear prospects of a December interest rate cut will lead to continued fluctuations and adjustments, with a possible narrowing of the fluctuation range. It is recommended to pay attention to the retracement of the 60 - day moving average, and dips are considered opportunities to buy. Resistance and support levels are provided for London gold and silver [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾 - On Wednesday, precious metal prices fluctuated slightly higher. Although NVIDIA's earnings report was slightly higher than expected, the Fed's interest rate cut expectations declined. The VIX of US stocks and the MOVE index of US bonds both rose, and Bitcoin continued to fall, increasing the demand for precious metals and US dollars as a hedge. The market is focused on the US September non - farm payrolls report to be released on Thursday night. The Fed's meeting minutes showed internal differences, with many thinking it inappropriate to cut rates in December. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $4078.3 per ounce (+0.29%), and other contracts also had corresponding price changes [1]. 3.2降息预期与基金持仓 - Interest rate cut expectations have declined, with only a 30% probability of a December rate cut. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged on December 11 is 67.2%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 32.8%. Long - term fund positions: SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 2.29 tons to 1043.72 tons, and iShares Silver ETF holdings increased by 8.46 tons to 15226.88 tons. In terms of inventory, SHFE silver inventory decreased by 16 tons to 547.7 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 47.7 tons to 774.7 tons as of the week ending November 14 [2]. 3.3本周关注 - In terms of data, focus on the补发 of US government data after the restart, especially the US September non - farm payrolls report on Thursday night. In terms of events, several Fed officials will give speeches on Friday [3]. 3.4贵金属期现价格表 - Provides the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE gold and silver main contracts, SGX gold and silver TD, CME gold and silver main contracts, SHFE - TD gold and silver, and CME gold - silver ratio [5]. 3.5库存持仓表 - Shows the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE and CME gold and silver inventories and positions, as well as SPDR gold and SLV silver positions [13]. 3.6股债商汇总览 - Presents the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of the US dollar index, US dollar against the RMB, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil spot, LmeS copper 03, 10 - year US Treasury yield, 10 - year US real interest rate, and 10 - 2 year US Treasury yield spread [19].

Group 1: Financial Futures Report Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View Overseas, the end of the US government shutdown requires attention to economic data release and its impact on the actual economy. The absence of October non - farm data and the Fed's divided views have cooled the interest - rate cut expectation. Domestically, the economic fundamentals are showing a marginal slowdown, and the policy support and its effectiveness are key concerns [1]. Summary by Directory - **Macro**: The Fed's meeting minutes showed serious differences, with many opposing a December rate cut. The US October non - farm data is not released, and the November report is postponed, leading to a cooling of the rate - cut expectation. Overseas, focus on the impact of the government shutdown on the economy, and domestically, pay attention to policy support [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: Affected by the non - farm data and the Fed's differences, the US dollar index is strong, and the rate - cut expectation has cooled. Follow US November economic data, the next Fed chair candidate, and domestic enterprises' willingness to settle foreign exchange. The RMB may get some support from seasonal effects [2]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Export enterprises can lock in forward exchange settlement at around 7.12, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at around 7.07 [3]. - **Stock Index**: Nvidia's earnings exceeded expectations, which may drive up the domestic technology sector. The index style may switch to small - and medium - cap stocks in the short term. The index is expected to oscillate with upper pressure and lower support [3][5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Maintain a medium - term bullish view. Although the A - share rebound and other factors have affected the bond market, the medium - term fundamentals still support it. Mid - term long positions can be held, and short - term long positions can be established on dips [5][6]. - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The futures price oscillates, waiting for new drivers. There are both bullish and bearish factors in the market, and the short - term is expected to be weakly oscillating. Trend traders can wait and see, and arbitrage traders can take profit on the 12 - 02 reverse spread [7][8][9]. Group 2: Commodities Report Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View The performance of different commodities varies. For precious metals, the short - term is affected by the unclear rate - cut prospect, while the medium - and long - term is supported by factors such as central bank gold purchases. Other commodities are also influenced by their respective supply - demand, cost, and policy factors [12][15]. Summary by Directory - **Precious Metals (Gold & Silver)**: The rate - cut expectation has cooled. Focus on the US September non - farm employment report. In the short term, the price may continue to oscillate and adjust, and dips can be used to build long positions. The long - term price is expected to rise [12][13][15]. - **Copper**: The delay of non - farm employment data makes the copper price lack elasticity. The short - term is mainly about post - decline repair. Pay attention to the support at 86000 and the pressure at 87000. Downstream enterprises can use a combined strategy to reduce procurement costs [15][17]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to oscillate strongly in the medium - and long - term and oscillate in the short - term. Alumina is expected to be weakly running, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to oscillate at a high level [17][18][19]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to oscillate narrowly. The rate - cut expectation has cooled, and the smelting end may reduce production in November. Observe the inventory changes and the bottom space at the end of the month [19][20]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: They are oscillating at the bottom, waiting for clear signals. The supply of nickel ore may be affected by the rainy season and typhoons, and the demand for nickel - iron is weak. Stainless steel has high inventory and low demand [20][21]. - **Tin**: It is oscillating narrowly. Due to the shortage of concentrates, the supply is weaker than demand, and it is recommended to enter the market on dips [23]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Be cautious about chasing high prices. The downstream replenishment willingness is low, and the upside space is doubtful. It is recommended to gradually take profit on long positions [23][24]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has limited downside space, and it is recommended to build long positions on dips. Polysilicon has weak short - term fundamentals, and it is suitable to short on rallies [25][26]. - **Lead**: The bottom space is small. The supply is tight, and the import window is open. It is expected to oscillate [27][28]. Group 3: Black Metals Report Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View The black metal market is affected by factors such as environmental protection inspections, supply - demand relationships, and cost. The overall is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the risk of negative feedback [29]. Summary by Directory - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: They are expected to oscillate within a range. Rebar's supply - demand balance is marginally improving, and hot - rolled coil has high inventory and needs to reduce production to destock. Pay attention to the de - stocking speed and downstream consumption [29][30]. - **Iron Ore**: The valuation is being repaired. The supply is strong and the demand is weak, and there is a shortage of deliverable products. Wait for the basis to be repaired and then consider shorting on rallies [31][33]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The spot price of coking coal in Shanxi has loosened, and the short - term may face adjustment pressure. The medium - and long - term is supported by policies and winter storage demand. Consider building long positions when the price falls to the lower limit of the range [34][35]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: They continue to accumulate inventory. The demand is expected to decline, and they are expected to oscillate weakly [36][37]. Group 4: Energy and Chemicals Report Investment Rating Not mentioned Core View The energy and chemical market is affected by geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost factors. Different products have different trends, and attention should be paid to relevant factors such as geopolitical risks and macro - funds' risk - aversion trends [39]. Summary by Directory - **Crude Oil**: The geopolitical situation has cooled. It is expected to oscillate between 60 - 65 in the short - and medium - term. Pay attention to geopolitical risks and macro - funds' risk - aversion trends [39][40][41]. - **LPG**: The cost fluctuates greatly, and the domestic market is relatively strong. The supply is slightly decreasing, the demand of PDH is in a loss state, and the inventory is decreasing. The overall fundamentals are neutral to positive, but the valuation is high [42][43]. - **PTA - PX**: The aromatics blending logic is strengthened, and they are expected to oscillate strongly with the cost. Pay attention to the implementation of maintenance plans and macro - dynamics. The PTA processing fee can be operated within the range of 200 - 290 [44][47][48]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: Consider taking profit on short positions and switch to selling call options. The demand is expected to be stable in November and weaken seasonally in December. The supply may accumulate inventory, and the long - term is under pressure [49][50]. - **Methanol**: The 01 contract is expected to be weakly running. The port pressure is difficult to relieve, and it is recommended to hold short call options and conduct reverse spreads [51][52]. - **PP**: It is oscillating at the bottom. The supply pressure may be relieved if more devices stop, and the demand is good in the short term. It is not advisable to short further in the short term and can consider going long on dips [53][55]. - **PE**: The fundamental driving force is insufficient. The supply pressure is large, and the demand growth space is limited in the long term. The downward space is limited, but the upward pressure exists [56][57]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The aromatics market is running strongly. Pure benzene may have more negative feedback, and styrene has high inventory and limited rebound height [58][59]. - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur cracking is bearish, and the low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be supported by factors such as supply reduction and demand improvement [60][61][62]. - **Asphalt**: The bottom space is small. Pay attention to the winter storage willingness. The short - term is expected to oscillate, and the long - term demand may be affected by seasonal factors [63][64][65]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: Soda ash is mainly cost - priced and has limited upward elasticity. Glass has high inventory and downward pressure. Caustic soda has high supply and weak demand in the long term [65][66][67]. - **Pulp and Offset Paper**: The futures price centers are moving down. Pulp is affected by macro - sentiment, inventory, and supply, and offset paper is affected by tender prices [68][69]. - **Log**: Continue to pay attention to shorting opportunities and the 01 - 03 reverse spread. The spot price decline drives the futures price down, and the inventory is increasing [70][71].

重要资讯 1. 美国10月18日当周首次申请失业救济人数23.2万，政府关门致官方报告持续缺席以来首次公布。"小非 农"ADP周度就业数据：截至11月1日的四周，美国私营部门就业人数平均每周减少2500人。 股指期货日报 2025年11月19日 廖臣悦(投资咨询证号：Z0022951) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 外围扰动下股指走势分化，大盘股指终结三连跌 市场回顾 今日股指走势分化，大盘股指收涨，中小盘股指收跌。从资金面来看，两市成交额回落2001.59亿元。期指方 面，IF、IH缩量上涨，IC缩量下跌， IM放量下跌。 2.外交部：如日方拒不撤回涉台错误言论 一切后果由日方承担。 核心观点 今日股指走势分化，受中日关系紧张影响，具有防御属性的大盘股指表现较优，军工及水产板块领涨。期指 成交量加权平均基差则与标的股指表现相反，IF、IH贴水加深，IC、IM贴水收敛，市场资金博弈特征延续。 当前资金止盈意愿增强对股指形成压制，政策利好预期对股指形成支撑，短期股指预计维持上有压力下有支 撑的震荡格局，中日关系继续僵持的情况下，大盘股指或延续优势。关注本周将恢复公布的美国经济数据及 英伟达Q ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The demand side of ethylene glycol (EG) has changed little. Polyester demand is expected to remain around 91% in November and weaken seasonally from December. Recently, there have been many unexpected incidents in the supply - side devices, and the subsequent inventory accumulation slope has eased. Against the background of the strong trend of thermal coal, the cost - side support has strengthened, making it difficult for the price to break below 3900. However, in the long run, the slowdown and delay of inventory accumulation are just rhythm issues, and the pattern of valuation pressure under the expectation of supply - demand surplus is difficult to reverse. The operation idea of shorting on rallies remains unchanged. If the valuation continues to compress, there will be strong supply - side support around 3700. For the 01 contract, below 3900, short positions can be closed and call options can be sold instead [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents Polyester Price and Volatility - The monthly price range of ethylene glycol is predicted to be 3750 - 4200, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.19% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 26.4%. For PX, it is 6300 - 7100, 14.65%, and 37.0% respectively; for PTA, 4300 - 4900, 13.86%, and 23.8%; for bottle chips, 5400 - 6000, 10.84%, and 27.6% [2]. Polyester Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory is high and there is concern about the decline of ethylene glycol prices, for the long - position spot exposure, one can short EG2601 futures to lock in profits (25% hedging ratio, entry range 4000 - 4100). One can also buy EG2601P3800 put options to prevent price drops and sell EG2601C4050 call options to reduce capital costs (50% hedging ratio, entry range 40 - 80) [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the procurement of regular inventory is low and one hopes to purchase according to order situations, for the short - position spot exposure, one can buy EG2601 futures to lock in procurement costs (50% hedging ratio, entry range 3800 - 3900). One can also sell EG2601P3800 put options to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the price drops (75% hedging ratio, entry range 40 - 80) [2]. Core Contradiction Analysis - The demand for polyester is expected to remain stable in November and weaken seasonally from December. The supply - side device incidents have eased the inventory accumulation slope, and the cost - side support has strengthened. But in the long run, the supply - demand surplus situation remains, and the operation strategy is to short on rallies. The price is expected to get strong support around 3700. For the 01 contract, short positions can be closed and call options can be sold below 3900 [3]. 利多解读 (Positive Factors) - There have been many unexpected shutdowns of ethylene glycol devices at home and abroad recently. In China, Guangxi Huayi (200,000 tons), Hongsifang (300,000 tons), and Sinochem Quanzhou (500,000 tons, rumored) have shut down, with a total loss of 1 million tons of production capacity. Abroad, a 750,000 - ton/year MEG device in Malaysia has been shut down since late September and will continue until 2027, and a 900,000 - ton/year EG device in Singapore has postponed its restart [4][6]. 利空解读 (Negative Factors) - An 830,000 - ton/year MEG new device in South China plans to start trial production with ethylene feedstock in early November, and part of the production will be available in the market. The original planned production time was the first quarter of 2026, and now it is advanced, which will bring a small additional supply increment in December [7]. Market Data - **Price Data**: On November 19, 2025, the prices of various polyester - related products and their changes compared with the previous day and the previous week are provided, including Brent crude oil, PX, PTA, EG, etc. For example, the EG01 contract price was 3903 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan from the previous day and up 12 yuan from the previous week [8]. - **Spread Data**: The spreads between different contracts and the changes in basis, month - to - month spreads, and processing fees are also presented. For example, the TA1 - 5 month spread was - 62 yuan/ton, with a daily change of - 6 yuan and a weekly change of 0 yuan [8][9]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of warehouse receipts for PTA, MEG, and PX and their changes are given. For example, the number of PTA warehouse receipts was 111,696, unchanged from the previous day and up 13,246 from the previous week [9].

南华期货碳酸锂企业风险管理日报 2025年11月19日 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 研究助理：余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 【核心矛盾】 锂矿端，本月到港锂精矿数量预计偏多，可缓解市场锂矿端的紧张格局；供给方面，盐湖产能释放将持续为 锂盐市场补充供给，而"枧下窝复产速度"是关键变量，若其复产进度超市场预期，将直接扩大锂盐供给规 模，对价格形成潜在压制。需求端当前表现强劲，磷酸铁锂、三元材料、六氟磷酸锂等核心电池材料价格持 续上行，直观反映出市场对碳酸锂的需求韧性；从历史经验来看，临近12月时，下游动力电芯排产会出现季 节性环比减少情况，当前市场核心焦点同时聚焦于储能电芯排产能否弥补动力电芯排产的下滑，具体需根据 排产情况判断。假设，若整体下游排产环比减量有限，则仍符合市场预期；但若减量超预期，则可能引发市 场波动，削弱市场对短期需求的信心，进而导致碳酸锂价格震荡承压。 . 此外，11月底仓单集中注销情况亦需重点关注：若仓单数量出现大幅减少，则很有可能引发市场对持仓量和 仓单数量的炒作，进而对碳酸锂 ...

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - Recently, crude oil has been fluctuating within a narrow range, with frequent switches between bullish and bearish sentiments and no clear trend. On Wednesday, crude oil rebounded slightly, mainly driven by the refined product side. The trends of gasoline and diesel in Europe and the US have diverged, with diesel surging to a new stage high, possibly related to the approaching Russian sanctions date, but more of an emotional premium. Subsequently, the seasonal increase in the operating load in Europe and the US will ease the supply pressure. Market concerns cannot be ignored: macroeconomic negatives have been temporarily ignored, the overnight panic index has risen, and European and American stock markets have fallen, while crude oil has not priced in this risk. After the subsequent positive factors fade, a corrective market may occur. Geopolitical risks in regions such as Russia-Ukraine, South America, and Africa provide potential bullish support, but the market has shown fatigue in reacting to these risks, and actual events are needed to have a pulling effect. Going forward, attention should be focused on the sustainability of the gasoline-diesel divergence and the impact of macro funds' risk aversion sentiment on crude oil [1]. Summary of Related Catalogs Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Trade within a range. The resistance level for Brent above is $65, and the support level below is $60. - Arbitrage: Hold off for now. - Options: Hold off for now [5]. Logic Analysis - The rally was driven by sentiment in the refined product side, with divergence and weak follow-up as key features. The core driving force behind the overnight rally in crude oil came from the refined product side, with a significant divergence in the trends of gasoline and diesel in Europe and the US. Diesel soared to a new stage high due to the approaching Russian sanctions date (Russia mainly exports diesel and Europe mainly consumes diesel), providing emotional support for crude oil. However, this driving force is more of a short-term emotional premium - the seasonal increase in the operating load in Europe and the US will ease the supply pressure of gasoline and diesel. At the same time, the follow-up increase in the crude oil market has significantly weakened, failing to form a strong follow-up pattern [8]. - Deteriorating macro sentiment hides potential risks, which may trigger a corrective market later. At the macro level, negative factors have been temporarily ignored by the market but have planted the seeds of risk. The overnight panic index rose significantly and lifted from a low level, European and American stock markets fell across the board, and the US stock market hit a new stage low. The risk aversion sentiment in the financial market is gradually fermenting. Currently, the crude oil market has not priced in this macro risk. If the positive support from geopolitical and refined product sides fades later, the market may reprice the fundamentals and macro logic, leading to a significant corrective market [9]. - Geopolitical risks provide emotional support, but it's difficult to have a substantial pulling effect without real events. There are numerous geopolitical risk points, including the high-intensity conflict between Russia and Ukraine, US pressure on Venezuela and Mexico, and the turmoil in Sudan (interruption of oil exports) and Libya in Africa, which constitute long-term potential bullish factors for the crude oil market. However, the crude oil market has shown fatigue in reacting to geopolitical news. These risks can only provide short-term emotional support and are difficult to have a substantial pulling effect. Only when geopolitical events actually occur and materialize will they have a corresponding impact on oil prices according to the degree of risk [10]. Related News - For the week ending November 14 in the US, API crude oil inventories increased by 4.448 million barrels, compared with a previous increase of 1.3 million barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 790,000 barrels, compared with a previous decrease of 43,000 barrels. Gasoline inventories increased by 1.546 million barrels, compared with a previous decrease of 1.385 million barrels. Refined oil inventories increased by 577,000 barrels, compared with a previous increase of 944,000 barrels [11]. - Sources said that due to a drone attack by Ukraine on Friday, the crude oil shipments at Russia's Novorossiysk port were delayed by 2 to 3 days compared with the original plan [11]. - According to foreign media reports, the US Treasury Department claimed in an unusual statement that its recent efforts to weaken Russia have been successful. The statement showed the market impact of measures targeting Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil. The office responsible for overseeing US sanctions at the Treasury Department said that "driven by the effectiveness of US sanctions, the demand for Russian oil is plummeting." The press release stated that various grades of Russian oil "are trading far below all other international prices," with some at multi-year lows. The statement - a November 17 memo from the economic analysis department of the Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctions - said that nearly a dozen major Indian buyers indicated that they plan to suspend purchases of Russian oil for December delivery. A Treasury spokesperson said in an email that the Treasury is prepared to take further action to end the conflict if necessary [11][12].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - The decline in spot prices has led to a weakening of the futures market. The log port inventory as of November 7th was 2.93 million cubic meters (+5), with a daily average outbound volume of 66,300 cubic meters per day (+3,500), maintaining resilience. The prices of certain log specifications in the spot market have decreased this week. The impact of the opening of US log imports on the futures market is relatively small. The lg2601 contract showed a weekly increase of 1.28% and remained in a low - volatility oscillation state this week, while the lg2603 contract rose 0.38% with a position of only 4,000 lots. There is an opportunity to short the 01 - 03 spread in the long - term [5][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Log Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for logs is 780 - 830, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.28% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 67.4% [1]. Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: When log imports are high and inventory is at a high level, and there are concerns about price declines, enterprises with long spot exposure can short log futures (lg2601) to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an advisable entry range of 810 - 820 [1]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on order situations, enterprises with short spot exposure can buy log futures (lg2601) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an advisable entry range of 740 - 750 [1]. Market Conditions - **Futures Market**: lg2601 closed at 775.5 (-11) with a position of 17,000 lots, and lg2603 closed at 791.5 (-5) [4]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price decreased this week. For example, the market price of 5.9 - meter medium A logs in Lanshan area was 770 (-10) [4]. - **Valuation**: The warehouse receipt cost is approximately 811 yuan per cubic meter in the Yangtze River Delta and 803 yuan per cubic meter in Shandong [4]. - **Inventory**: As of November 7th, the national inventory was 2.93 million cubic meters (+5) [4]. Core Contradictions - The decline in spot prices has led to a weakening of the futures market. The log port inventory is increasing, and the daily average outbound volume remains resilient. The prices of certain log specifications in the spot market have decreased, and the impact of the opening of US log imports on the futures market is relatively small [5]. Strategies - Short at high prices. - Pay attention to the 01 - 03 reverse spread opportunity in the long - term. - Short the lg2601 - C - 800 position at high prices [7]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: The inventory is relatively low [7]. - **Negative Factors**: The emergence of domestic deliverable log products; the reduced willingness of buyers to accept deliverable products at non - mainstream delivery warehouses; the decline in spot prices and weak market demand [9].

Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: November 19, 2025 - Author: Chen Mintao (Z0022731) [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - Ferroalloys face the fundamental situation of high inventory and weak demand. Although the cost center of coking coal may decline due to supply guarantee, the downside space for ferroalloys is limited, and they are expected to fluctuate weakly [6]. Summary by Directory Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for ferrosilicon is 5,300 - 6,000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.65% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 40.6%. For silicomanganese, the price range is also 5,300 - 6,000, with a current volatility of 13.22% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 17.9% [3]. Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: When the finished product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, enterprises with long positions can short - sell SF2601 and SM2601 ferroalloy futures at a 15% hedging ratio. The recommended entry range is 6,200 - 6,250 for SF and 6,400 - 6,500 for SM to lock in profits and cover production costs [3]. - **Procurement Management**: When the procurement inventory is low and enterprises want to purchase based on orders, those with short positions can buy SF2601 and SM2601 ferroalloy futures at a 25% hedging ratio. The recommended entry range is 5,200 - 5,300 for SF and 5,300 - 5,400 for SM to lock in procurement costs in advance [3]. Market Review - Recently, ferroalloys rebounded slightly due to environmental inspection news, rising on reduced positions. However, the high - inventory situation remains unchanged. Today, ferroalloys followed coking coal and weakened in a fluctuating manner. The view of a weakly - fluctuating market for ferroalloys persists [4]. Core Logic - The steel mill profitability rate has fallen below 40%, leading to a slight decline in hot metal production, which is expected to continue. The demand for ferroalloys is expected to decline. The inventory of the five major steel products has increased seasonally, and ferroalloys also have high inventory. The production profit of ferroalloys is gradually decreasing, and there is little expectation for continued production increases. Downstream demand is entering the off - season, and the inventory of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese enterprises is at the highest level in the past 5 years. Silicomanganese enterprise inventory increased by 10.3% month - on - month, and ferrosilicon enterprise inventory increased by 3.3% month - on - month. This week, ferrosilicon production started to decrease, and silicomanganese production has been decreasing for multiple weeks. Reducing inventory may rely on production cuts [5]. Factors Analysis - **Positive Factors**: Ferrosilicon production decreased by 4.38% week - on - week this week, and silicomanganese continued its production - reduction trend. In October, the production of magnesium ingots increased by 21.96% month - on - month [8]. - **Negative Factors**: The steel market failed to meet expectations during the peak season, and the steel mill profitability rate fell below 40%, increasing the negative feedback pressure. The coil and plate segment still has high inventory and high production. Although production decreased month - on - month, it is still at the highest level in the past 5 years. Consumption has no driving force, and inventory has increased seasonally. Recently, Thailand launched an anti - dumping investigation on domestic steel plates. Silicomanganese enterprise inventory increased by 10.3% month - on - month, and ferrosilicon enterprise inventory increased by 3.3% month - on - month, indicating high inventory pressure [9][11]. Daily Data - **Ferrosilicon**: On November 19, 2025, the basis in Ningxia was 38, and the basis difference between 01 - 05 contracts was 2. Spot prices in different regions remained stable. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 47 compared to the previous day [9]. - **Silicomanganese**: On November 19, 2025, the basis in Inner Mongolia was 308, and the basis difference between 01 - 05 contracts was - 58. Spot prices in some regions decreased slightly, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 119 compared to the previous day [10][12].