【降息预期与基金持仓】 据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储6月维持利率不变的概率为94.6%，降息25个基点的概率为 5.4%；美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为73.1%，累计降息25个基点的概率为25.7%，累计降息50个基点 的概率为1.2%；美联储9月维持利率不变的概率36%，累计降息25个基点的概率为49.7%，累计降息50 个基点的概率为13.6%，累计降息75个基点的概率为0.6%。长线基金看，SPDR黄金ETF持仓日增4.01吨 至923.89吨；iShares白银ETF持仓日增77.77吨至14132.67吨。库存方面，SHFE银库存日增8.4吨至 949.2吨；截止5月16日当周的SGX白银库存周减91.8吨至1482.5吨。 【本周关注】 贵金属日报 短期震荡 中长期看涨 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年5月23日 【行情回顾】 周四贵金属价格震荡调整，美指回升抑制贵金属价格，且日盘opec+讨论7月再次大规模增产消息引发 黄金跟随原油回落。昨日美债汇抛售压力暂缓。最终黄金2506合约收报3295.1美元/盎司，-0. ...

镍&不锈钢：短期仍以震荡为主 南华新能源&贵金属研究团队 夏莹莹 投资咨询证号：Z0016569 管城瀚 从业资格证号：F0313867 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 沪镍区间预测 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 11.9-12.9 | 13.67% | 0.4% | source： 南华研究,wind 沪镍管理策略 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 | 套保比例 | 策略等级（满分 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | | | 向 | | 5） | | 库存管 理 | 产品销售价格下跌，库存有减值风险 | 根据库存水平做空沪镍期货来锁定利润，对冲现货下跌风 险 | 沪镍主力合约 卖出 | | 60% | 2 | | | | | 场外/场内期 | | | | | | | 卖出看涨期权 | 权 | 卖出 | 50% | 2 | | 采购管 理 | 公司未来有生产采购需求，担心原料价格上 涨 | 根据生产 ...

股指日报 股指期货日报 2025年5月22日 王梦颖（Z0015429）、廖臣悦 (F03120676) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 市场回顾 今日股指整体偏弱，除上证50指数收涨外其余指数均收跌。从资金面来看，两市成交额回落707.55亿 元。期指方面，IF缩量下跌，IH放量上涨，IC、IM放量下跌。 重要资讯 1.美国新预算法案引发交易员对赤字的担忧，美债拍卖结果不佳，美国股债汇三杀。 核心观点 今日指数缩量调整，大盘股指相对抗跌，红利指数领涨，现货交投活跃度低迷 ，市场情绪趋于谨慎，不 过期指基差与现货价格反向变动，说明市场情绪反复，没有形成明显的趋势性变动。短期信息面变化不 多，板块轮动频繁，国内政策预期托底，下方空间有限，同时，外部扰动仍不断，市场仍持有谨慎交易原 则，短期预计股指仍将以震荡为主，趋势交易需谨慎。 策略推荐 持仓观望 股指日报期指市场观察 | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力日内涨跌幅（%） | -0.05 | 0.10 | -0.70 | -0.81 | 整体偏弱，市场情绪趋于 ...

苯乙烯风险管理日报 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 黄思婕（期货从业证号：F03130744） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 苯乙烯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 苯乙烯 | 7200-7800 | 29.94% | 86.2% | source： 南华研究 苯乙烯套保策略表 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | (%) | 区间 | | 库存管 | | | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情况，做空苯乙烯期货来锁定 利润，弥补企业的生产成本 | EB2507 | 卖出 | 25% | 7400-750 0 | | 理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心苯乙烯价格 下跌 | 多 | 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降低资金成本，若糖价上涨还可以锁定现 ...

| 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | | 12800-13700 | 0.1232 | 0.293 | source： 南华研究 棉花风险管理策略建议 棉花产业风险管理日报 2025/5/22 陈嘉宁（投资咨询证号：Z0020097 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 棉花近期价格区间预测 | 行为 导向 | 情景分析 | 现货 敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖 方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入 场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存 情况，做空郑棉期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的 | CF2509 | 卖出 | 50% | 13600- 13800 | | 库存 | 库存偏高，担心棉价下 | 多 | 生产成本 | | | | | | 管理 | 跌 | | 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降低成本，若棉价上 | | | | 200-25 | | | | | 涨还可以锁定现货卖出 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests patiently holding positions, taking a wait - and - see approach, and making few moves. Traders are advised to follow the trend, moderately allocate on pullbacks, and hold long positions firmly [1][3]. 3. Summary by Content 3.1. Market Review - In the morning, Treasury bond futures opened higher and then oscillated downward, almost turning negative before the close. The intraday decline of A - shares drove up the price of Treasury bond futures briefly. In the afternoon, Treasury bond futures continued to decline and then rebounded before the close. The T main contract closed slightly up, while other varieties closed down [1]. - The open - market operation had 64.5 billion yuan in maturities and 154.5 billion yuan in new operations, resulting in a net injection of 90 billion yuan. After the opening, funds tightened slightly, and the overnight anonymous inter - bank funding rate reached around 1.53%, slightly higher than before the market, possibly related to tax payments [1]. 3.2. News - The first - batch pilot scale of the long - term investment reform of insurance funds was 50 billion yuan, the second - batch was 112 billion yuan, and the third - batch of 60 billion yuan is to be approved, with a total scale of 222 billion yuan [2]. 3.3. Market Outlook - Funds are a significant trend factor in the near term. Tax payments affect short - term liquidity to some extent, but the trend of the recent downward movement of the funds' central level towards the policy rate is still obvious. Therefore, trend trading should follow the trend, moderately allocate on pullbacks, and hold long positions firmly [3]. 3.4. Data - **Contract Prices and Changes**: On May 22, 2025, TS2506 was at 102.362 (down 0.008 from the previous day), TF2506 at 105.975 (down 0.01), T2506 at 108.81 (up 0.005), and TL2506 at 119.55 (down 0.02) [4]. - **Contract Positions and Changes**: TS contract positions were 124,994 hands (up 1,285), TF contract positions were 168,651 hands (down 3,185), T contract positions were 219,470 hands (up 2,258), and TL contract positions were 126,747 hands (down 167) [4]. - **Basis and Changes**: TS basis (CTD) was - 0.0744 (up 0.0007), TF basis (CTD) was 0.2742 (up 0.3199), T basis (CTD) was 0.2605 (up 0.2879), and TL basis (CTD) was 0.4354 (up 0.3406) [4]. - **Trading Volume and Changes**: TS main contract trading volume was 34,274 hands (up 4,013), TF main contract trading volume was 47,004 hands (up 4,789), T main contract trading volume was 65,126 hands (up 12,458), and TL main contract trading volume was 67,554 hands (down 5,858) [4]. - **Funding Rates and Changes**: DR001 was 1.5086% (down 0.0077 percentage points), DR007 was 1.5709% (down 0.0147 percentage points), and DR014 was 1.6585% (down 0.0178 percentage points) [4].

Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Log Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: May 22, 2025 - Analyst: Song Jipeng [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contract today added 335 lots, closing at 777.5 yuan/m³, down -0.13%, with average trading activity. Spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable but generally declined compared to last week's quotes. The Contango structure's slope flattened compared to last week, with a 7 - 9 spread of -14. It is expected that June - July will see a pattern of weak supply and demand, and the market is expected to fluctuate weakly [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Log Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for logs is 750 - 820 yuan/m³, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 17.06% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 75.8% [2]. Log Hedging Strategy Table Inventory Management - When log imports are high and inventory is at a high level, and there are concerns about price drops, for long - position inventory, it is recommended to short log futures (lg2507) with a 25% hedging ratio at an entry range of 850 - 790 yuan/m³ to lock in profits and cover production costs. Also, buy put options (lg2507P800) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 9.5 - 14 yuan to prevent sharp price drops, and sell call options (lg2507C850) at an entry range of 5.5 - 7.5 yuan to reduce capital costs [2]. Procurement Management - When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, for short - position inventory, it is recommended to buy log futures (lg2507) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 750 - 800 yuan/m³ to lock in procurement costs. Sell put options (lg2507P750) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 5.5 - 12 yuan to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot log purchase price if the price drops [2]. Core Contradictions - The main contract added 335 lots today, closing at 777.5 yuan/m³, down -0.13%, with average trading activity. Spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable but generally declined compared to last week. The Contango structure's slope flattened compared to last week, with a 7 - 9 spread of -14. In April 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of new housing starts was -23.8%, and China's total coniferous log imports were 2.185 million m³, a year - on - year decrease of 14.1%, with a larger decline than the previous month and a month - on - month decrease of 5.7%. Due to the decline in foreign shipping profits in April and May, the contract signing volume decreased, and the reduction in arrivals will be reflected in June. Port inventory was 3.41 million m³, a week - on - week decrease of 20,000 m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 3.4%. The average daily port outbound volume was 61,400 m³, a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 m³. It is expected that June - July will see a pattern of weak supply and demand. The price difference between wood squares and logs in Rizhao is trending wider, and downstream profits are rising. Currently, the basis of almost all log specifications is positive, but there is some market controversy about the deviation of the size difference. Attention should be paid to the spot feedback of subsequent supply reduction and subsequent delivery games. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly [3]. Spot and Basis - The report provides the spot prices, price changes, spot price increases after conversion (108%), main contract prices, delivery premiums and discounts, basis, and converted basis for different specifications of logs in Rizhao and Taicang ports on May 22, 2025 [3][6]. Log Data Overview - **Supply**: In April 2025, radiation pine imports were 1.65 million m³, a month - on - month decrease of 60,000 m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%. - **Inventory**: As of May 16, 2025, China's port inventory was 3.41 million m³, a week - on - week decrease of 20,000 m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 3.4%. Shandong's port inventory was 1,899,000 m³, a week - on - week increase of 31,000 m³ and a year - on - year decrease of 1.6%. Jiangsu's port inventory was 1,118,568 m³, a week - on - week decrease of 24,968 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 30.8%. - **Demand**: As of May 16, 2025, the average daily port outbound volume of logs was 61,400 m³, a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 15.0%. Shandong's average daily outbound volume was 32,000 m³, a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. Jiangsu's average daily outbound volume was 22,900 m³, a week - on - week increase of 700 m³ and a year - on - year increase of 28.7%. - **Profit**: As of May 23, 2025, the import profit of radiation pine was -48 yuan/m³, a week - on - week decrease of 9 yuan/m³, and the import profit of spruce was -109 yuan/m³, a week - on - week increase of 16 yuan/m³. - **Main Spot**: On May 22, 2025, the spot prices of 3.9 medium (3.8A) logs in Rizhao Port, 4 medium (3.8A) logs in Taicang Port, 5.9 medium (5.8A) logs in Rizhao Port, and 6 medium (5.8A) logs in Taicang Port were 750 yuan/m³, 770 yuan/m³, 770 yuan/m³, and 780 yuan/m³ respectively, with no price changes on the day and year - on - year decreases of 8.5%, 4.9%, 8.3%, and 6.0% respectively [7]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: Traders have the intention to jointly support prices due to continuous import losses. Attention should be paid to the spot feedback of subsequent reduction in arrivals. Macroeconomic policies may play a role [5]. - **Negative Factors**: Demand may be weaker than expected, and the goods movement is slow. The subsequent shipping volume may recover [5].

南华期货碳酸锂企业风险管理日报 2025年5月22日 戴鸿绪（投资咨询证书：Z0021819 ） 余维函 （期货从业证号：F03144703） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 期货价格区间预测 | 品种 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 碳酸锂主力合约 | 压力位65000 | 25.2% | 30.0% | source： 南华研究 据Mysteel消息，某锂盐厂预计停产检修4个月，预计每月影响锂盐月产量约1500吨。 解读：市场库存依然高位，此厂停产对市场供给过剩格局影响不大。 【利多解读】 【利空解读】 碳酸锂企业风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | | 套保比例 策略等级 （满分5） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 公司产品库存偏 高，库存有减值风 | 为了防止库存减值，可以根据企业的库存情况， 做空碳酸锂期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产成 本 | ...

戴鸿绪（投资咨询证书：Z0021819 ） 余维函 （期货从业证号：F03144703） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 工业硅&多晶硅期货价格区间 | 品种 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 工业硅主力合约 | 8500强阻力位 | 24.6% | 75.4% | | 多晶硅主力合约 | 34000-38000宽幅震荡 | 29.91% | 89% | source： 南华研究 工业硅&多晶硅风险管理策略建议 | 行为 导向 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 策略等级 （满分5） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存 | | 为了防止存货减值，根据企业库存情况，做空工 业硅/多晶硅期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产 成本 | SI2507/PS2507 | 卖出 | 60% | 3 | | | 产品库存偏高，有存 | | | | | | | 管理 | 货减值风险 | 卖出看涨期权 | ...

贵金属日报：震荡回升 中长期维持看涨 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年5月22日 【行情回顾】 周三贵金属价格延续回升，美国新预算法案引发交易员对赤字的担忧，美债拍卖结果不佳，美国市场 股债汇三杀，欧洲股市则震荡。最终黄金2506合约收报3316.6美元/盎司，+0.97%；美白银2507合约收 报于33.575美元/盎司，+1.21%。 SHFE黄金2508主力合约收报778.78元/克，+2.98%；SHFE白银 2506合约收8272元/千克，+2.04%。 【降息预期与基金持仓】 据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储6月维持利率不变的概率为94.6%，降息25个基点的概率为 5.4%；美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为73.1%，累计降息25个基点的概率为25.7%，累计降息50个基点 的概率为1.2%；美联储9月维持利率不变的概率33.1%，累计降息25个基点的概率为51.6%，累计降息50 个基点的概率为14.6%，累计降息75个基点的概率为0.7%。长线基金看，SPDR黄金ETF持仓日减1.72吨 至919.88吨；iShare ...