1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the impact of recent weather conditions on sugarcane production in major sugar - producing regions around the world, indicating that current weather in most areas is conducive to sugarcane growth, sugar accumulation, harvesting, and pressing [1][2][3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 China - In December, southern China enters the concentrated sugar - cane crushing period. Sunny weather is beneficial for sugar accumulation and cane cutting and transportation. As of November 27, 21 sugar mills in Guangxi have started crushing, 36 less than the same period last year, with a daily crushing capacity of 150,000 tons, a decrease of 316,000 tons year - on - year. The current dry weather in Guangxi and Yunnan is favorable for sugar accumulation [1] - In Guangxi and Yunnan, recent low precipitation and suitable temperatures are conducive to sugar accumulation in sugarcane [15][19] 3.2 Brazil - The central - southern region of Brazil is in the late stage of sugar - cane crushing. It requires sunny and less - rainy weather, large diurnal temperature differences for sugar conversion and accumulation. Affected by La Nina, overall precipitation is low, but there has been some precipitation recently, and soil moisture has recovered to some extent. However, the current low soil moisture is not conducive to the jointing of new - season sugarcane [2] - The central - southern sugar - cane producing area in Brazil has had some precipitation recently, and soil moisture has recovered [34] 3.3 India - Indian sugarcane is in the technological maturity stage, the final stage of sugar accumulation, and is about to enter the prime sugar - pressing window. The monsoon rains have basically subsided, and the overall sunny weather is conducive to sugar accumulation, cutting, and pressing [3] - After the monsoon, the recent sunny weather in India is favorable for sugar - cane pressing [42] 3.4 Thailand - Thai sugarcane is in the technological maturity stage, the final stage of sugar accumulation, and is about to enter the prime sugar - pressing window. The rainy season has passed, and the dry and sunny weather is conducive to sugar accumulation [5] - The current sunny weather in Thailand is beneficial for sugar - cane sugar accumulation [53] 3.5 Global Sugar - Cane Production and Distribution - China's southern sugar - cane planting area is relatively stable, while northern beet planting area is determined by farmers based on planting income. Guangxi is China's largest sugar - producing area, accounting for over 60%, and Chongzuo is the sugar capital, accounting for 9% of the national sugar - cane area [65] - Brazil has the largest sugar - cane planting area globally. About 50% - 60% of its sugar - cane is used for ethanol production, and its sugar output depends on the profit ratio of sugar and ethanol. It is also the world's largest sugar exporter, with exports accounting for 75% - 80% of its output [67] - India is the world's second - largest sugar producer, and its output is highly variable due to natural factors. It is also the world's largest sugar consumer, and its output determines whether it exports sugar [67] - Thailand is usually the world's second - largest sugar exporter after Brazil. Although its output is around 10 million tons, its exports account for 70% - 85% of its output [67] 3.6 Sugar - Cane Growth Cycle and Conditions - The growth cycle of sugar - cane includes germination, seedling, tillering - elongation, maturity, and harvest stages, each with specific temperature, precipitation, and light requirements [60]

上周磷肥政策的改变，带来化肥板块投机性压制，尿素现货成交转弱。在政策保供与生产利润修复的支撑 下，尿素日产预计将维持高位，高供应对价格构成显著压力。然而出口政策的适时、连续调节，持续为基本 面泄压，从而削弱了价格的下行驱动强度。在出口政策调控背景下，短期现货价格受到明显压制，业内情绪 有减弱，短线国内尿素行情走低。由于目前东北地区已经连续补库两周，复合肥工厂及贸易商追高意愿逐步 减弱，但尿素显性库存连续去库，基本面对价格形成支撑。总体而言，尿素市场处于基本面与政策的区间 内。短期其下行空间受到有力支撑，但上方同样承压，01预计将延续震荡走势。 ∗ 近端交易逻辑 南华期货尿素产业周报 ——期现回归 2025/12/14 联系人 张博（投资咨询证号：Z0021070） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 尿素现货日产销与尿素期货收盘价 元/吨 尿素平均产销(右轴) 尿素期货主力合约收盘价 1 2 3 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 尿素山东产销季节性 2023 2024 2025 0 2 4 6 | | | 虽然尿素增设了交割库，但最便 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent continuous differentiation and decline in the market are mainly due to the price reduction of coal chemical products following the coal price drop. These products have an oversupply situation, and market funds have pushed the bearish sentiment to the extreme, leading to a collective decline of coal chemical related varieties. However, the valuation of coal chemical products is low, and there is a possibility of a rebound at any time. Although the coking coal price has been falling recently, the contradiction cycles are different. Coal supply guarantee is a short - term logical driver, while anti - involution is a long - term logic. Low - valued long - term positions can be considered [2][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Weekly Market Condition Review - The commodity market continued the differentiation trend of last week. Non - ferrous metals and precious metals remained strong, while black and chemical varieties were weak, with the 01 contract being pushed to the extreme. Copper, aluminum, and silver showed a strong upward trend due to supply shortages, but the gold trend deviated and requires caution. Agricultural products showed a回调 trend. Regarding soybeans, short - term selling pressure may exist as China's annual purchase of 1.2 billion tons cannot fundamentally change the global supply - demand pattern. After the domestic soybean meal adjustment is in place, low - buying opportunities can be sought. For palm oil, the high inventory in Malaysia has put pressure on it. In the energy and chemical sector, the continuous decline of domestic coal prices under the winter - spring supply guarantee policy has brought selling pressure to coal chemical products. However, the valuation of chemical products has reached the limit, and the cost - effectiveness of short - selling is not high, with a possible rebound at any time. In the black sector, under the background of coal supply guarantee, coking coal and coke led the overall valuation of the black sector to decline. The market priced in the news of export control on some steel products on Friday night, which is slightly bearish overall. But it is believed that coking coal is unlikely to return to the price level in early July [4]. Market Data Tables - **Plate Capital Flow**: The total capital flow is - 0.86 billion. Precious metals have a capital inflow of 2.781 billion (34.4%), non - ferrous metals 0.987 billion (11.5%), black metals - 2.224 billion (- 49.6%), energy and chemicals - 0.823 billion (- 25.6%), feed and breeding - 1.335 billion (- 64.1%), oils and fats - 0.241 billion (- 5.4%), and soft commodities 0.598 billion (36.0%) [9]. - **Black and Non - ferrous Weekly Data**: It includes price, inventory, valuation, position, open interest change, and annualized basis data for various black and non - ferrous varieties such as iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, coking coal, etc. For example, the price percentile of iron ore is 20.0%, inventory percentile is 98.5%, and valuation percentile is 0.0% [9]. - **Energy and Chemical Weekly Data**: Similar to the above, it provides data for energy and chemical products like fuel oil, low - sulfur oil, asphalt, etc. For instance, the price percentile of fuel oil is 0.0%, inventory percentile is 95.1%, and valuation percentile is 32.9% [11]. - **Agricultural Product Weekly Data**: It contains data for agricultural products such as soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean oil, etc. For example, the price percentile of soybean meal is 9.9%, inventory percentile is 100.0%, and valuation percentile is 63.2% [12].

宏观：关注国内经济数据发布 【市场资讯】1）习近平在中央经济工作会议上谈科技创新成果：实践证明，对我们"卡脖 子"是卡不住的。2）中国 11 月新增社融 2.49 万亿元，新增人民币贷款 3900 亿元，M2- M1 剪刀差扩大。3）何立峰：2026 年要严防"爆雷"。4）韩文秀：明年将根据形势变化出 台实施增量政策，促进居民收入增长和经济增长同步，既要扩大出口也要增加进口。5）中 国多部委响应中央经济工作会议，央行：灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具；发 改委：提振消费要出实招出新招，综合整治"内卷式"竞争和培育发展新动能；商务部等三 部门：加强商务和金融协同，更大力度提振消费；财政部：用好用足各类政府债券资金， 发行超长期特别国债，推动投资止跌回稳。6）特朗普：倾向于让沃什或哈塞特担任美联储 主席，希望一年后利率 1%或更低，自称应当在与美联储讨论利率方面发挥作用。7）摩根 大通 CEO 戴蒙据称支持沃什，警告哈赛特出任损害美联储独立性；戴蒙支持后，预测市场 对沃什出任的概率一度激增 24 个百分点。哈塞特：希望沃什和他无论谁出任都与特朗普 对话，特朗普可向联储提供建议，但无权设定其行动。8）"新美联 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints - Oil prices are fluctuating within a range due to the uncertainty of geopolitical situations and the continuous weakness of fundamentals. The tense situation between the US and Venezuela has replaced the Russia-Ukraine conflict as the short - term price - determining factor, but the market's sensitivity to geopolitics has decreased. The interest rate cut has been priced in earlier and has limited impact on oil price drivers. The long - term trading logic of crude oil still needs to focus on the evolution of the long - term supply - demand pattern. [1][5][7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Oil prices are fluctuating between geopolitical uncertainty (US - Venezuela tensions) and weak fundamentals. The Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut was already priced in by the market, so its current impact on prices is neutral. The market's sensitivity to geopolitical risks has decreased, and the follow - up should focus on the development of the US - Venezuela situation. [1] 3.1.2 Speculative Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: Short - term shock and relative stability. - **Strategy Recommendations**: - **Unilateral**: Trade within the range, paying attention to the potential pressure around $65/barrel and the potential support around $62/barrel for Brent oil. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see. - **Options**: Wait and see. [9] 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The US has imposed sanctions on individuals, shipping companies, and tankers operating in Venezuela's oil sector. Russian crude oil deliveries to India and China have declined for three consecutive weeks, likely due to new US sanctions. [10] - **Negative Information**: US Gulf Coast gasoline inventories have risen for four consecutive weeks, and implied demand has declined. US crude oil inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma, and strategic petroleum reserve inventories have changed, and commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) have decreased by 1800,000 barrels, a 0.4% decline. [11][12] 3.2.2 Next Week's Focus Events - Pay attention to the development of the US - Venezuela situation, as it is currently the short - term price - determining factor, but the market's sensitivity to it has decreased. [13] 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Volume, Price, and Capital Analysis - **Trend Analysis**: International oil prices have remained stable overall, continuing the recent shock pattern and showing a four - month consecutive decline. - **Domestic Market**: The SC2601 contract of the SC main force closed at 437.6 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 3.55%. The trading volume of INE crude oil futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 9,721 lots to 84,693 lots. - **Foreign Market**: The US oil main contract fell 0.12% to $57.53/barrel, a weekly decline of 4.24%; the Brent crude oil main contract fell 0.11% to $61.21/barrel, a weekly decline of 3.98%. The trading volume of WTI crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange decreased by 45,419 contracts to 1,868,023 contracts, and the net long position of managed funds decreased by 1,025 contracts to - 12,671 contracts. [16][18][21] 3.3.2 Internal - External Spread Tracking - **Spread**: As of December 12, the SC - Brent continuous 1 spread was $0.28/barrel, the SC - WTI continuous 1 spread was $3.94/barrel, the SC - Dubai continuous 1 spread was $0.97/barrel, and the Brent - WTI continuous 1 spread was $3.66/barrel. - **Arbitrage**: The theoretical price of SC M + 3 was 475.46 yuan/barrel, and the deviation from the market price increased. The theoretical on - shore profit of SC was - 29.05 yuan/barrel, and the loss narrowed compared with last week. The SC - Brent spread was weak, and the domestic crude oil was relatively weak under the background of OPEC+ production increase. [27][28] 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Crude Oil Market Monthly Spread Tracking - As of December 12, the Brent monthly spread (01 - 03) was $0.48/barrel, the WTI monthly spread (01 - 03) was $0.41/barrel, and the SC monthly spread (01 - 03) was - 5 yuan/barrel. [31] 3.4.2 Crude Oil Regional Spread Tracking - As of December 12, the SC - Brent continuous 1 spread was $0.27/barrel, and the Brent - WTI continuous 1 spread was $3.66/barrel. [43] 3.4.3 Downstream Crude Oil Valuation Tracking - The cracking spreads and refining profits in European, North American, Asia - Pacific, and Chinese markets have all shown different degrees of changes, with some declining and some showing small increases or decreases. [58][60] 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Side Tracking - In October, global crude oil and related liquid production was 108.18 million barrels per day, a decrease of 310,000 barrels per day compared with September. The EIA has slightly increased its production forecasts for 2025 and 2026. US, OPEC, and Non - OPEC DoC countries' crude oil production also had corresponding changes in October and future forecasts. [93] 3.5.2 Demand - Side Tracking - Information on the seasonal trends of US refinery crude oil weekly feed and weekly operating rates, as well as China's major refinery operating rates and refining margins, is provided. [82][85] 3.5.3 Inventory - Side Tracking - Seasonal trends of US commercial crude oil weekly inventories (excluding strategic reserves) and Cushing crude oil weekly inventories are presented. [87] 3.5.4 Import - Export Tracking - Seasonal trends of US and Russian crude oil export volumes and the types of ships used for export are shown. [89][91] 3.5.5 Balance Sheet Tracking - The EIA's forecasts for global, US, and OPEC countries' crude oil production in 2025 and 2026 are presented. [93]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, there is no driving force, and the market shows a weak and volatile pattern. However, it is necessary to be vigilant about environmental protection speculation in winter. In the medium - to - long - term, the downside space for industrial silicon prices is limited, and it is cost - effective to buy long - term contracts during peak seasons at low prices. The price trend of industrial silicon is also closely related to the price fluctuations of related products such as polysilicon and coking coal [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Suggestions 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The core driving factors for the future price trend of industrial silicon futures include the progress of eliminating backward production capacity under the "anti - involution" background of the industry, production cuts on the supply side due to environmental protection constraints or rising costs, and the expected production cuts on the demand side due to weak terminal sales. The industry has expectations for eliminating backward production capacity, but due to the large number of private enterprises and scattered layout in the industrial silicon industry, there is a lack of confidence in effective capacity clearance through industry self - regulation. - Electricity costs account for 30% of the production cost of industrial silicon, and coal price fluctuations affect electricity costs and then industrial silicon prices. In December, the operating rate of industrial silicon producers is expected to decline. Downstream, the polysilicon industry is reducing production, the silicone monomer plants have maintenance plans, and only the aluminum alloy industry maintains a stable operating rate [1]. 3.1.2 Trading Logic - Near - term trading logic (before the end of 2025): Environmental protection disturbances, and expected production cuts on both the supply and demand sides. - Long - term trading logic (after early 2026): The progress of eliminating backward production capacity under the "anti - involution" background of the industry, and continuous attention to demand [4]. 3.1.3 Industrial Operation Suggestions - Sales management: For enterprises planning to produce industrial silicon in the future and worried about price drops during sales, they can sell corresponding futures contracts and use a combined options strategy (buy put options and sell call options) with a recommended hedging ratio of 20%. - Procurement management: For enterprises planning to produce polysilicon, silicone, or aluminum alloy in the future, if the finished product price is not correlated, they can buy corresponding futures contracts with a recommended hedging ratio of 30% and use a combined options strategy (sell put options and buy call options) with a ratio of 10%. If the finished product price is correlated, they can sell corresponding futures contracts and use a combined options strategy (buy put options and sell call options) with a ratio of 20%. - Inventory management: For enterprises with high industrial silicon inventory and worried about inventory depreciation due to price drops, they can short futures contracts and use a combined options strategy (sell call options and buy put options) with recommended hedging ratios of 20% and 10% respectively [5]. 3.2 Important Information and Events to Watch 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information Review - On December 8, Jianghan New Materials announced that a 60,000 - ton/year trichlorosilane plant was put into trial operation in October this year, 10,000 tons of silane production capacity is planned to be put into trial operation in December, and another 10,000 tons each will be put into trial operation in mid - and late - next year. In 2027, optical fiber - grade silicon tetrachloride and electronic - grade tetraethyl orthosilicate plants will be gradually built. - On December 8, GCL Technology announced that its subsidiaries and other parties signed a partnership agreement to establish a limited partnership, which plans to acquire a 42.469% stake in Inner Mongolia Xinyuan Silicon Materials Technology Co., Ltd. from Hongyuan Green Energy and Tibet Ruihua for a total consideration of RMB 2.01 billion [6]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Events to Watch No events to watch were mentioned in the report [7]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Analysis - The closing price of the industrial silicon weighted index contract on Friday was 8,412 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4.66%. The trading volume was 619,800 lots, a week - on - week increase of 113.65%, and the open interest was 460,100 lots, an increase of 19,000 lots week - on - week. The monthly spread between SI2601 and SI2605 was in a back structure, with a week - on - week increase of 90 yuan/ton. The number of warehouse receipts was 8,619 lots, an increase of 1,331 lots week - on - week. - The industrial silicon weighted futures price quickly fell below the 5 - day moving average this week. The disk showed the characteristic of "short - position increase and price decline". The current price quickly fell below the lower track of the Bollinger Band, and the Bollinger Bandwidth showed signs of widening. It is necessary to focus on the support level of 8,000 yuan/ton, and from Thursday to Friday, there was a characteristic of "short - position exit and price stabilization" [10][11]. 3.3.2 Option Analysis - The 20 - day historical volatility of industrial silicon has been strengthening in the past week, indicating that the actual price fluctuation range has been gradually expanding. The implied volatility of at - the - money options has also been strengthening. The PCR of option open interest has been rising, indicating an increasing bearish sentiment in the market [13]. 3.3.3 Term Structure Analysis - The term structure of industrial silicon futures shows a back structure, which is relatively stable. The basis of the main industrial silicon contract is at a relatively high level [17][19]. 3.3.4 Spot Data of the Silicon Industry Chain - The prices of different grades of industrial silicon in various regions have shown different degrees of decline. The prices of industrial silicon powder have also decreased. The price of trichlorosilane and polysilicon N - type price index remained unchanged, the price of silicone DMC was stable, and the price of aluminum alloy ADC12 increased slightly [22]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit - Since hitting the profit low in May, the average profit of the industrial silicon industry has been in a continuous recovery channel. The profit of the polysilicon industry is currently stable, providing important support for the demand of industrial silicon. The profit of the aluminum alloy industry is showing a weakening trend, while the profit of the silicone industry is recovering [23]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis 3.5.1 Upstream - Industrial Silicon - The weekly production and operating rates of industrial silicon from different data sources showed different trends. The weekly production of some data sources increased, while others decreased. The operating rates also showed mixed trends [30]. - The inventory data of industrial silicon in different regions and warehouses showed different changes [47][48][50]. 3.5.2 Downstream - Polysilicon - The weekly production of domestic polysilicon decreased, and the operating rate also declined. The total inventory of polysilicon increased slightly, with different changes in the inventory of production enterprises, silicon wafer enterprises, and warehouse receipts [51][52][54]. 3.5.3 Downstream - Aluminum Alloy - The operating rates of primary and secondary aluminum alloys decreased slightly, and the inventory of primary aluminum alloy decreased, while the inventory of secondary aluminum alloy decreased significantly [58][59]. 3.5.4 Downstream - Organic Silicon - The weekly production of organic silicon DMC decreased, with a week - on - week decrease of 6.12% [64]. 3.5.5 Terminal - The report shows the data trends of China's commercial housing sales area, automobile monthly production, and photovoltaic monthly new installed capacity [67].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The core contradiction in the sugar market lies in the supply - demand differences between domestic and international markets, resulting in the current pattern of strong domestic and weak international prices [1]. - The pricing of the domestic 01 contract will approach the Guangxi price, and the 05 contract may decline to a very low price due to increased supply pressure [1]. - The international raw sugar price is expected to continue the game around 15.2 cents, with limited upside potential in the near - term [2]. - The long - term structure of Zhengzhou sugar shows a downward trend, with the 05 contract being continuously suppressed by the 10 - day moving average [9]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradiction and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradiction - The focus of market trading is the supply - demand difference between domestic and international markets. The key contradictions affecting sugar prices include the final pricing of the domestic 01 and 05 contracts and whether the international market can regain stability at 15 cents [1][2]. - The 01 contract is stronger than the 05 contract because of the higher spot price. The 05 contract has greater pressure due to increased domestic and imported sugar supply in the future [1]. - The international raw sugar price has rebounded to above 15 cents, but the upside is limited as positive factors mainly affect the far - month contracts [2]. - The SR2501 contract is approaching the delivery month, and its price is mainly based on the Guangxi new sugar price. The far - month contracts show a discount structure due to expected production increases [4][7]. 1.2 Speculative Strategy Recommendations - The market is in a downward trend, with the 05 contract being suppressed by the 10 - day moving average [9]. - Recommended strategies include the basis strategy of buying 01 and shorting the spot, and the spread strategy of going long on 01 and shorting 05 or 03 [9]. - Past strategies' performance includes stop - losses, entries, exits, and profit - taking [9]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - The predicted price range of sugar is 5200 - 5500, with a current volatility of 6.02% and a historical percentile of 2.2% [10]. - For inventory management, strategies include shorting Zhengzhou sugar futures and selling call options. For procurement management, strategies include buying Zhengzhou sugar futures and selling put options [10]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive information: Brazil's sugar exports in the first week of December increased by 21% compared to the daily average of the previous December. Thailand set a new cane base price for the 2025/26 season [11]. - Negative information: In the 2025/26 season in Guangxi, 65 sugar mills have started production, 7 less than the previous year. In India's Maharashtra state, sugar production has accelerated. The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports decreased by 17.14% [12][13]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Brazil's weekly port sugar waiting - to - ship quantity and number of vessels (Thursday, Beijing time), Brazil's November sugar export data (Tuesday, Beijing time), and India's sugar - pressing progress [14][16]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The domestic futures price decreased by 0.36% this week. The SR2605 contract's positions increased seasonally. The market shows a bearish technical pattern [18]. - The basis of the 01 contract is expected to return to near - par as the delivery month approaches. The market shows a back structure with the 01 - 05 spread widening [20]. - **International Market**: The international raw sugar price rebounded by 1.89% last week, reaching 15.2 cents on Friday. The non - commercial positions in CFTC show an increasing short - selling trend [22]. - The international raw sugar futures show a back structure, and the hedging pressure above 15.2 cents has reappeared [24]. - **Domestic - International Spread**: Due to the quota system, the price relationship between domestic and international sugar is complex. Recently, the pattern has changed from strong domestic and weak international to the opposite [26]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Import Profit Tracking - China is a net importer of sugar. Due to the quota system, the current out - of - quota import profit is substantial. The import volume of syrup and premixed powder from other Asian countries has increased [29]. Chapter 5: Supply and Inventory Projection 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - In the 25/26 season, China's sugar production is expected to reach about 1170 tons, a 4.82% increase year - on - year, considering the good growth of sugarcane in Guangxi [31]. - Other data in the supply - demand balance sheet are estimated based on the 24/25 season and current situations, and this week's data remain unchanged [31].

南华期货丙烯产业周报 ——关注"反内卷"进展 戴一帆（投资咨询资格证号：Z0015428） 研究助理：沈玮玮（期货从业证书：F03140197 ） 联系邮箱：shenweiwei@nawaa.com 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月14日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 当前影响丙烯走势的核心矛盾有以下几点： 1）本周整体化工情绪偏弱，不少品种创下新低。但周五夜盘国资委重提"反内卷"，周末发改委管控高能耗项 目，化工品受到影响低位反弹，短期依然情绪影响为主。 2）现货价格易受到个别装置波动影响，整体近期相对价格持稳，基差大幅走强。本周供需差整体变动不大， 供应端开停工并行，宁波富德MTO及汇丰石化FCC进入检修，广州石化蒸汽裂解、巨正源及滨华PDH重启， 需求端PP依然维持供应，丙烯酸利润影响检修增加；山东区域，本周供增需减，整体变动不大。 3）主要下游PP，供应充足，近期与丙烯的价差大幅收缩，现货端PP跟丙烯价差已经压缩到0附近，盘面主力 价差也最低压缩到400附近，但短期依然没有太多的检修出来，持续偏弱的PP价格压制PL走弱，短期"反内 卷"、高能耗管控可能 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - This week, the LPG price was mainly affected by the weakening domestic fundamentals, with an increase in supply and a decrease in demand expectations, leading to a significant decline in the disk price. However, the price rebounded slightly on Friday night due to the influence of the SASAC's "anti - involution" policy, and the market volatility increased [2][6]. - In the short - term, the LPG market is expected to be in a volatile state, with the price range of PG01 predicted to be between 4000 - 4500 yuan/ton [16]. - In the long - term, the LPG market is affected by multiple factors on both the supply and demand sides. The supply pressure from the US is relatively large, while the demand in different regions shows different characteristics [13]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Cost - end: Crude oil was under the pressure of oversupply and geopolitical issues, and it oscillated weakly this week but remained within the oscillation range [1]. - Overseas market: It was relatively strong. US demand increased and inventory decreased, while Middle - East shipments remained at a low level. The FEI premium was $37.25, and the CP premium was $42 [1]. - Domestic fundamentals: They weakened slightly. The supply increased due to the rise in arrivals, and port inventory accumulated. On the demand side, although PDH started to operate at a higher rate due to the resumption of production in some enterprises, there were rumors of maintenance plans, and the demand expectation weakened. The number of warrants increased to 5476 this week [1][6]. 1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - Market positioning: Oscillation, with the price range of PG01 at 4000 - 4500 yuan/ton [16]. - Basis strategy: Oscillation. The basis strengthened as the disk price fell from its high this week [16]. - Spread strategy: Reverse arbitrage (3 - 4) at high prices [16]. - Hedging and arbitrage strategy: Narrow the internal - external spread and widen the PP/PG ratio at low prices [16]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - LPG price range forecast: 4000 - 4500 yuan/ton, with a current volatility of 23.00% and a historical percentage of 40.18% in the past 3 years [17]. - Hedging strategy: For inventory management, when inventory is high, short PG futures and sell call options; for procurement management, when inventory is low, buy PG futures and sell put options [17]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive factors: The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, and the overseas market remained tight with high premiums [24]. - Negative factors: The number of warrants increased to 5476, and the PDH maintenance expectation increased [24]. 2.2 Next Week's Attention Events - On December 16, pay attention to the US unemployment rate; on December 18, pay attention to the US CPI year - on - year. Also, focus on the further implementation of high - energy - consumption project control [24]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation Unilateral Trend and Capital Movement - The PG01 contract oscillated and declined this week. The net positions of major profitable seats decreased slightly, and the long positions of the top 5 in the order book decreased significantly, while the short positions of the top 5 remained unchanged. The net short positions of powerful seats decreased slightly, and the net long positions of foreign investors decreased slightly while those of retail investors increased slightly [21]. Basis and Spread Structure - The LPG term structure remained in a BACK structure this week, with the 1 - 2 spread at 84 yuan/ton (+5) [25]. - In the overseas market, the FEI M1 - M2 spread was $19/ton (+6); the CP M1 - M2 spread was $9/ton (+4.5); the MB M1 - M2 spread was $2.9/ton (-3.25). FEI and CP were generally suitable for positive arbitrage [37]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis Upstream Profits - The gross profit of major refineries was 645 yuan/ton (+52), and that of Shandong independent refineries was 443 yuan/ton (-12). The profit fluctuations were not significant this week [42]. Downstream Profits - The PDH profit calculated by FEI was - 237 yuan/ton (+109), and that calculated by CP was - 553 yuan/ton (+16), indicating continuous losses. The MTBE gas - separation profit was - 63.75 yuan/ton (-1.25), the isomerization profit was - 188 yuan/ton (-138), and the alkylation oil profit was - 473 yuan/ton (-61) [44]. Chapter 5: Supply, Demand, and Inventory 5.1 Overseas Supply and Demand - US supply and demand: With the cooling weather, weekly demand improved significantly, but production was relatively high, and inventory decreased at a normal rate. From January to November, US LPG exports increased year - on - year, but the volume to China decreased [52][57]. - Middle - East supply: From January to November, Middle - East LPG exports increased year - on - year. Shipments were low in November due to high domestic demand [60]. - Indian supply and demand: From January to November, India's LPG demand and imports increased year - on - year. The second half of the year was the peak season, with high demand and imports [62]. - South Korean supply and demand: The seasonality of LPG demand was not obvious. The import volume was expected to remain at a relatively high level, but there was a slight increase in November and a recent rebound [65]. - Japanese supply and demand: Japan was highly dependent on LPG imports, and the demand and import seasonality were obvious. The import volume was expected to increase with the cooling weather [68]. 5.2 Domestic Supply and Demand - Supply: With high refinery profits, domestic LPG production was expected to remain at a high level, but the external supply volume was not high, and the import volume was also low [72]. - Demand: Based on profit and seasonality, chemical demand decreased while combustion demand increased. The chemical demand in the fourth quarter was better than expected [72]. - Inventory: There was a slight reduction in overall inventory, mainly at the port [73].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Central Economic Work Conference last week, the overall tone was moderate, with no mention of real - estate support policies. The pricing focus of the steel market has returned to fundamentals, and the previous macro - premium has been reversed. [1] - The supply of molten iron is decreasing due to seasonal patterns and steel enterprise profitability. However, recent raw material price concessions have improved blast furnace and electric furnace profits, potentially slowing down the steel production cut. [1] - Seasonal weakness in demand is the core issue for steel prices. Real - estate steel demand is shrinking, and cold weather restricts construction. New steel export regulations may reduce exports next year, weakening the support for steel prices. [1] - The overall inventory of the five major steel products is decreasing. Rebar inventory reduction is relatively healthy, but hot - rolled coil inventory reduction is slower than expected. [1] - The main contradiction currently lies in the furnace materials. Iron ore port inventory is increasing, and its valuation is high, but there is support from winter stockpiling. Coking coal supply is relatively abundant, and its price is weak, but it rebounded at night due to anti - involution news. [1] - Steel prices are expected to fluctuate. The price range of the rebar main contract 2605 may be between 2900 - 3300, and that of the hot - rolled coil main contract 2605 may be between 3000 - 3400. [1] Summary According to the Table of Contents Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Macro - level support has faded, and the steel market is back to fundamentals. [1] - Supply: Molten iron production is decreasing, but profit improvement may slow the production cut. [1] - Demand: Seasonal weakness, real - estate demand decline, and potential export reduction. [1] - Inventory: Rebar inventory reduction is better than hot - rolled coil. [1] - Furnace materials: Iron ore has high inventory and valuation, with winter - stockpiling support; coking coal supply is abundant. [1] 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: Range - bound oscillation. The rebar range may be 2900 - 3300, and the hot - rolled coil range may be 3000 - 3400. [5][6] - **Hedging Strategies**: Positive spreads for finished products have a high profit - loss ratio; shrink the hot - rolled coil to rebar price difference. [6] 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: Rebar 01 contract may range from 2900 - 3300 with a volatility of 12.83% (24.5% percentile); hot - rolled coil 01 contract may range from 3100 - 3500 with a volatility of 10.54% (7.49% percentile). [7] - **Risk Management Strategies**: For inventory management, short rebar or hot - rolled coil futures and sell call options; for procurement management, buy rebar or hot - rolled coil futures and sell put options. [7] Chapter 2: Important Information and Next - Week Concerns 2.1 Important Information - **Negative Information**: The basis is gradually weakening. [11] 2.2 Next - Week Important Events to Follow - Next Monday: China's November year - on - year growth of total retail sales of consumer goods and value - added of industrial enterprises above designated size. [14] - Next Tuesday: US November unemployment rate and non - farm payrolls. [14] Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Basis**: No significant changes in the term structure of rebar, still in a deep Contango structure; the far - month of hot - rolled coil shows a Contango structure. [23] - **Hot - Rolled Coil to Rebar Price Difference**: Spot and futures price differences may continue to shrink. [20] - **Term Structure**: Rebar's term structure is stable, and hot - rolled coil's far - month shows Contango. [23] - **Monthly Spread Structure**: There are different seasonal patterns for rebar and hot - rolled coil monthly spreads. [27][28][29] Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - Steel mill profitability has dropped below 40%, but blast furnace and electric furnace profits are improving, reducing the motivation for production cuts of the five major steel products. [30] 4.2 Export Profit Tracking - There are various indicators for tracking hot - rolled coil export profits, such as seasonal patterns and relationships with export volumes and orders. [49] Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projections 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projections - Steel production (rebar and hot - rolled coil) has decreased, and inventory has also decreased slightly. Molten iron production and scrap consumption have decreased. [70] 5.2 Supply - Side and Projections - Production is affected by profitability, furnace maintenance, and raw material consumption. Different steel products have different production trends. [76][77][80] 5.3 Demand - Side and Projections - There are various consumption forecasts for different steel products, and inventory levels also vary among different steel products. [90][93][103]