南华期货集运产业周报 —— 黄金周空班计划公布，底部支撑显现 俞俊臣（投资咨询资格证号：Z0021065） 南华研究院投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025/09/07 第一章 核心因素及策略建议 1.1 核心因素 当周影响EC价格走势的核心因素为欧线现舱报价与主流船司空班、关税的不确定性。延续此前逻辑，需 求季节性回落，当周主流船司9月上旬现舱报价持续下行，仍是利空期价的主要因素。但此外，部分主流船司 官宣黄金周停航计划，从供应角度给予欧线运价与期价以支撑；美国联邦巡回上诉法院裁定，美国总统特朗 普实施的大部分全球关税措施非法，从宏观情绪角度短期利多期价走势。我们可以看到，EC价格与欧线现舱 报价价格整体虽仍呈现高度的正相关性，但相较而言，EC价格更显平稳。后期可继续关注船司欧线现舱报价 变动、船司动作和关税变化。 | 上海至鹿特丹小柜分船公司现舱报价 | | | | | | | | 上海至鹿特丹大柜分船公司现舱报价 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The market has undergone a significant adjustment, and the implied volatility of financial options has decreased. The trading volume of 50ETF options has declined compared to the previous week, with the trading volume of put options lower than that of call options. The put - call trading ratio has increased compared to the previous week but is below the historical average, while the put - call holding ratio has decreased compared to the previous week but is above the historical average [1][2]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Financial Option Data - **Trading Volume and Holdings**: The average daily trading volume of 50ETF options this week was 1.4576 million contracts, a decrease of 18.99% compared to the previous week. The put - call trading ratio was 0.8, which increased compared to the previous week and was below the historical average. The put - call holding ratio last week was 0.85, which decreased compared to the previous week and was above the historical average. The average daily trading volume of Huatai Bairui 300ETF options was 1.5743 million contracts, and the average daily holdings were 1.4231 million contracts; the average daily trading volume of Southern China Securities 500ETF options was 2.1945 million contracts, and the average daily holdings were 1.4044 million contracts; the average daily trading volume of Huaxia Shanghai Stock Exchange Science and Technology Innovation 50ETF options was 2.1735 million contracts, and the average daily holdings were 2.1941 million contracts; the average daily trading volume of Shenzhen 100ETF options was 0.2263 million contracts, and the average daily holdings were 0.1551 million contracts; the average daily trading volume of GEM ETF options was 2.8928 million contracts, and the average daily holdings were 1.6524 million contracts; the average daily trading volume of CSI 300 index options was 0.1834 million lots, and the average daily holdings were 0.2248 million lots; the average daily trading volume of CSI 1000 index options was 0.3718 million lots, and the average daily holdings were 0.3404 million lots [1][4]. - **Implied Volatility**: As of the close on Friday, the implied volatility of CSI 300 index options was 20.54%, a decrease of 3.19% compared to a week ago. The implied volatility of 50ETF options was 18.48%, a decrease of 3.81% compared to a week ago. The implied volatility of CSI 1000 index options was 25.51%, a decrease of 0.98% compared to a week ago [2][4].

商品期权周报 I 2025/09/01—2025/09/05 隐波上升，市场窄幅震荡 本周摘要 波动率方面，截至本周五收盘，原油期权隐含波动率 28.09%,较 一周前上升 0.80%。碳酸锂期权隐含波动率 37.08%,较一周前上 升 0.56%。螺纹钢期权隐含波动率 18.33%,较一周前上升 6.65%。纯碱期权隐含波动率 19.79%,较一周前上升 0.62%。黄 金期权隐含波动率 14.80%,较一周前上升 0.00%,较一周前上升 0.62%。白银期权隐含波动率 26.40%,较一周前上升 5.94%。棕 榈油期权隐含波动率 14.43%,较一周前下降-0.81%。豆油期权隐 含波动率 19.10%,较一周前下降-0.04%。菜油期权隐含波动率 21.95%,较一周前上升 3.56%。橡胶期权隐含波动率 11.23%,较 一周前上升 0.07%。 本周商品期权成交量较上周上升 24.24%，持仓量较上周上升 5.29%，期权市场情绪较上周有所升温。同时期权隐含波动率普 遍上升。黄金，白银期权隐含波动率较一周前上升超 5 个百分 点，目前分别处于历史 50%-60%、70%-80%分位数水平。另 外 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views - The domestic bond market is expected to benefit from the relatively optimistic liquidity environment, and attention should be paid to the introduction of policies to promote service consumption [2]. - The RMB exchange rate is likely to oscillate between 7.10 - 7.16 this week, and its short - term strengthening depends on the continuous improvement of internal and external environments [3]. - The phased correction of stock indices may be over, and they are expected to return to a relatively strong trend [3]. - The Treasury bond market should be operated with a band - trading strategy [5]. - The shipping index is expected to continue to oscillate or oscillate with a downward bias, and short - term operations are recommended [8]. - Precious metals are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long term, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [11]. - Copper prices may rebound after finding support, with a weekly price range of 79,100 - 80,200 yuan per ton [13]. - Aluminum is expected to be oscillating with a strong bias, alumina should be on the sidelines, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be oscillating with a strong bias [15]. - Zinc should be on the sidelines for the time being [16]. - Nickel and stainless steel are expected to oscillate between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan and 12,500 - 13,100 yuan respectively [19]. - Tin prices are pushed up by tight supply [19]. - Lead is expected to oscillate [22]. - Steel products are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the demand in the peak season and macro - policies [23][24]. - Iron ore has more risks than opportunities, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions and build short positions on high prices [25]. - Coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate widely, and it is not recommended to short coking coal [27]. - It is recommended to lightly test long positions in ferrosilicon and ferromanganese, but there is a risk of a pull - back if there is no substantial progress in the "anti - involution" policy [28][29]. - Crude oil may enter a downward trend in the medium term, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate meeting and OPEC +'s production - resumption rhythm [32]. - LPG fluctuates with crude oil [33]. - PX - TA prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and it is recommended to expand the processing margin of PTA01 below 260 [34][35]. - MEG is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and it is recommended to buy on dips within the range [38]. - It is recommended to hold long positions in methanol [39]. - PP has cost support in the short term, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips [40]. - PE is expected to oscillate, and it needs to wait for a clear signal of demand recovery [42]. - PVC is difficult to trade due to repeated speculations, and it is recommended to wait and see [44]. - Pure benzene is expected to oscillate weakly, and benzene styrene is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [45][46]. - Fuel oil is dragged down by crude oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended to wait for long - position opportunities [46][47]. - Asphalt is recommended to try long - position allocation after the short - term stabilization of crude oil [48]. - Urea is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and continuous attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [49][50]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The domestic liquidity environment is expected to be relatively optimistic, which is beneficial to the bond market. Attention should be paid to policies to promote service consumption. Overseas, the long - term bond market has experienced a "Black September," and the focus is on the Fed's dot - plot [2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB exchange rate is mainly affected by the US dollar index. It is expected to oscillate between 7.10 - 7.16 this week, and attention should be paid to Sino - US economic data [3]. - **Stock Indices**: The phased correction may be over, and stock indices are expected to return to a relatively strong trend due to the expected loosening of liquidity [3][4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: A band - trading strategy is recommended [5]. - **Shipping Index**: It is expected to continue to oscillate or oscillate with a downward bias, and short - term operations are recommended [8]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold & Silver**: Weak employment data boosts recession trading. Gold and silver are expected to be bullish in the medium - to - long term, and a strategy of buying on dips is recommended [9][11]. - **Copper**: US non - farm data drags down copper prices, which may rebound after finding support, with a weekly price range of 79,100 - 80,200 yuan per ton [13]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be oscillating with a strong bias, alumina should be on the sidelines, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be oscillating with a strong bias [14][15]. - **Zinc**: It should be on the sidelines for the time being due to non - farm data falling short of expectations [16]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: They are expected to oscillate between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan and 12,500 - 13,100 yuan respectively, and attention should be paid to macro - level disturbances [18][19]. - **Tin**: Tin prices are pushed up by tight supply, and a V - shaped rebound is expected [19]. - **Lead**: It is expected to oscillate, and strategies such as selling out - of - the - money call options can be considered [21][22]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The steel market is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating weakly. Attention should be paid to the demand in the peak season and macro - policies [23][24]. - **Iron Ore**: It has more risks than opportunities, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions and build short positions on high prices [25]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: They are expected to oscillate widely, and it is not recommended to short coking coal [27]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: It is recommended to lightly test long positions, but there is a risk of a pull - back if there is no substantial progress in the "anti - involution" policy [28][29]. Energy & Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: It may enter a downward trend in the medium term, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate meeting and OPEC +'s production - resumption rhythm [32]. - **LPG**: It fluctuates with crude oil [33]. - **PX - TA**: Prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and it is recommended to expand the processing margin of PTA01 below 260 [34][35]. - **MEG**: It is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, and it is recommended to buy on dips within the range [38]. - **Methanol**: It is recommended to hold long positions [39]. - **PP**: It has cost support in the short term, and it is recommended to look for opportunities to go long on dips [40]. - **PE**: It is expected to oscillate, and it needs to wait for a clear signal of demand recovery [42]. - **PVC**: It is difficult to trade due to repeated speculations, and it is recommended to wait and see [44]. - **Pure Benzene & Benzene Styrene**: Pure benzene is expected to oscillate weakly, and benzene styrene is expected to oscillate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [45][46]. - **Fuel Oil**: It is dragged down by crude oil, and low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended to wait for long - position opportunities [46][47]. - **Asphalt**: It is recommended to try long - position allocation after the short - term stabilization of crude oil [48]. - **Urea**: It is in a weak supply - demand pattern, and continuous attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [49][50].

Group 1: Report Summary - The South China Comprehensive Index rose 18.21 points, a 0.72% increase this week. Gold and silver were the most influential varieties, with gold's index rising 3.82% and contributing 0.28%, and silver's index rising 4.51% and contributing 0.27% [1][2]. - The South China Industrial Products Index fell 2.38 points, a -0.07% decrease. Crude oil and PTA were the most influential, with crude oil contributing -0.12% and PTA -0.1% [1][2]. - The South China Metal Index dropped 12.24 points, a -0.19% decline. Lithium carbonate was the most influential, contributing -0.13% [1][2]. - The South China Energy and Chemical Index decreased 2.4 points, a -0.14% fall. Crude oil was the most influential, contributing -0.17% [2]. - The South China Agricultural Products Index increased 3.42 points, a 0.31% rise. Palm oil was the most influential, contributing 0.3% [2]. Group 2: Weekly Data Overview - Table 1 shows the weekly data of South China commodity indices, including closing prices, changes, and other details for various indices such as the Comprehensive Index, Precious Metals Index, etc. [3]. - Table 2 presents the strength - weak arbitrage data of South China variety indices, including present values, previous values, changes, and rankings for different commodity comparisons [6]. - Table 3 provides the daily price changes, contribution to index price changes, average weekly holdings, and other data for each futures variety [8]. Group 3: Sector Index Analysis South China Industrial Products Index - The top six contributing varieties are crude oil, PTA, fuel oil, rebar, sintered ore, and tin [10]. South China Metal Index - The top three contributing varieties are lithium carbonate, rebar, and tin [10]. South China Energy and Chemical Index - The top three contributing varieties are crude oil, PTA, and fuel oil [10]. South China Agricultural Products Index - The top three contributing varieties are palm oil, corn, and soybean oil [10]. South China Black Index - The top three contributing varieties are iron ore, coke, and manganese - silicon [12]. South China Non - ferrous Index - The top three contributing varieties are lithium carbonate, tin, and alumina [14].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View - The stock market rebounded today, basically recovering yesterday's losses, and the market returned to trading in technology - related industries during the upward process. The stock index remained above the 20 - day moving average, with a positive sentiment today. It is expected that this moving average will continue to provide support in the future. The ADP data in the US yesterday was lower than expected, the US dollar index declined, and the US stocks rose, sending some optimistic signals before the market. However, today's overall trend showed obvious volume contraction, so it is expected that the upward momentum will not be as strong as in the previous upward trend stage. In the short - term, a volatile view on the stock index is maintained. If consumption - related policies are further introduced, it may trigger a new round of optimistic sentiment. Domestic inflation and financial data will be released next week, and attention should be paid to the changes in economic growth momentum conveyed by the data. The recommended strategy is to hold positions and wait and see [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Today, the stock index rose with shrinking volume. Taking the CSI 300 index as an example, it closed up 2.18%. In terms of capital, the trading volume of the two markets decreased by 2395.99 billion yuan. In the futures index market, all varieties rose with shrinking volume [3]. Important Information - Policies and measures to expand service consumption are expected to be introduced soon. The new policies will focus on increasing the supply of high - quality services, including expanding inbound consumption, launching more high - quality inbound tourism routes and services, promoting the orderly opening of the Internet and culture fields, and promoting the inclusion of service consumption items such as camping, homestays, property services, and "Internet + medical" into the catalog of industries encouraged for foreign investment. - Apple's sales in the Indian market in the previous fiscal year reached a record 9 billion US dollars. - Hainan Free Trade Port plans to implement a wider - scope tourist visa - free entry policy [4]. Futures Index Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | 2.82 | 1.64 | 4.41 | 3.61 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 16.0241 | 6.5764 | 17.0326 | 30.3786 | | Trading volume change compared with the previous period (10,000 lots) | - 5.4542 | - 3.5666 | - 2.3753 | - 7.9453 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 27.8339 | 9.9744 | 24.8658 | 38.6798 | | Open interest change compared with the previous period (10,000 lots) | - 2.0566 | - 1.1778 | - 1.2544 | - 1.7948 | [5] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 1.24 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | 3.89 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 10.17 | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 23046.59 | | Trading volume change compared with the previous period (billion yuan) | - 2395.99 | [6]

Report Overview - Report Title: Treasury Bond Futures Daily Report - Report Date: 2025/09/05 - Analyst: Xu Chenxi (Investment Consulting License Number: Z0001908) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] 1290 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The report suggests a trading strategy of taking advantage of market fluctuations. It advises buying on dips and setting profit targets. The bond market may continue to fluctuate in a situation where stocks are strong and bonds are weak, as long as the A-share market does not show an obvious downward trend [2][4] Key Points Summarized by Section Market Performance - On Friday, Treasury bond futures opened lower and closed down across the board, with TL experiencing the largest decline. Spot bond yields rose across the board but fell back after the futures market closed. The open market had a net withdrawal of 59.46 billion yuan. The funding situation was loose, with DR001 remaining around 1.31% [2] - The A-share market's sharp adjustment the previous day did not bring more upward momentum to the bond market. Instead, the bond market declined as the stock market rebounded strongly. The 30-year Treasury bond issuance rate was slightly higher, and the situation was mediocre [4] Specific Contract Data | Contract | 2025-09-05 Price | 2025-09-04 Price | Change | 2025-09-05 Position | 2025-09-04 Position | Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.388 | 102.44 | -0.052 | 73,830 | 76,004 | -2,174 | | TF2512 | 105.58 | 105.745 | -0.165 | 139,550 | 142,981 | -3,431 | | T2512 | 107.92 | 108.27 | -0.35 | 218,747 | 217,136 | 1,611 | | TL2512 | 116.3 | 117.4 | -1.1 | 142,701 | 140,684 | 2,017 | [5] Basis and Trading Volume Data | Contract | 2025-09-05 Basis | 2025-09-04 Basis | Basis Change | 2025-09-05 Trading Volume | 2025-09-04 Trading Volume | Volume Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS (CTD) | -0.0605 | -0.0299 | -0.0306 | 32,921 | 31,545 | 1,376 | | TF (CTD) | -0.0455 | 0.0269 | -0.0724 | 75,029 | 62,934 | 12,095 | | T (CTD) | 0.3381 | 0.3866 | -0.0485 | 92,512 | 83,913 | 8,599 | | TL (CTD) | 0.6967 | 0.8792 | -0.1825 | 169,741 | 135,244 | 34,497 | [7] Market News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued the "Stable Growth Action Plan for the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry from 2025 - 2026" [3] - US ADP employment growth in August slowed significantly to 54,000, and the number of initial jobless claims last week reached the highest level since June [3] - The weighted winning bid yields for the 1-year and 30-year Treasury bonds issued by the Ministry of Finance were 1.3485% and 2.1139% respectively, with full - scale multiples of 2.33 and 3.02, and marginal multiples of 1.61 and 4.46 [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices' rise and fall on Wednesday are closely related to the US economy. The rare simultaneous increase of copper, gold, the US dollar index, and crude oil, along with a significant decline in US stocks, was due to factors such as rising long - term bond yields in Europe and the US, political crises, and trade geopolitical instability, which led to increased risk premiums and market risk - aversion. The subsequent fall in copper prices was a correction of the over - increase. Considering the relatively tight supply and the US economic pressure stimulating the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, copper prices may remain strong in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper Price Volatility and Forecast - The latest copper price is 79,770 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 7.61%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 4.1% [2]. 3.2 Copper Risk Management Suggestions 3.2.1 Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and fear of price drops, with a long spot exposure, it is recommended to sell short the main Shanghai copper futures contract at a hedging ratio of 75% around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell call options (CU2511C82000) at a hedging ratio of 25% when volatility is relatively stable [2]. 3.2.2 Raw Material Management - For low raw - material inventory and fear of price increases, with a short spot exposure, it is recommended to buy long the main Shanghai copper futures contract at a hedging ratio of 75% around 78,000 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Factors Affecting Copper Prices 3.3.1 Bullish Factors - The US and other countries reaching an agreement on tariff policies; increased interest - rate cut expectations leading to a decline in the US dollar index and boosting the valuation of non - ferrous metals; and a rising lower support level [4]. 3.3.2 Bearish Factors - Tariff policy fluctuations; a decrease in global demand due to tariff policies; and extremely high COMEX inventory caused by the US adjustment of copper tariff policies [4][5]. 3.4 Copper Futures and Spot Data 3.4.1 Copper Futures Data - The latest price of the main Shanghai copper futures is 79,770 yuan/ton, with no daily change. The price of Shanghai copper continuous - one is 79,770 yuan/ton, down 340 yuan (- 0.42%); Shanghai copper continuous - three is 79,680 yuan/ton, with no change; and LME copper 3M is 9,891.5 US dollars/ton, down 82.5 US dollars (- 0.83%) [4]. 3.4.2 Copper Spot Data - The latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper is 80,190 yuan/ton, down 330 yuan (- 0.41%); Shanghai Wumaotrade is 80,125 yuan/ton, down 310 yuan (- 0.39%); Guangdong Nanchu is 80,000 yuan/ton, down 280 yuan (- 0.35%); and Yangtze Non - ferrous is 80,230 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan (- 0.43%). The spot premiums of various regions also showed different degrees of decline [7]. 3.5 Copper Scrap - to - Refined Spread - The current refined - scrap spread (tax - included) is 1,585.74 yuan/ton, down 177.24 yuan (- 10.05%); the reasonable refined - scrap spread (tax - included) is 1,499.9 yuan/ton, down 3.9 yuan (- 0.26%); the price advantage (tax - included) is 85.84 yuan/ton, down 173.34 yuan (- 66.88%). Similar declines are also seen in the non - tax - included data [11]. 3.6 Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventory 3.6.1 Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) Copper Warehouse Receipts - The total Shanghai copper warehouse receipts are 19,829 tons, up 358 tons (1.84%); the total international copper warehouse receipts are 5,322 tons, down 100 tons (- 1.84%) [13]. 3.6.2 LME Copper Inventory - The total LME copper inventory is 158,375 tons, down 200 tons (- 0.13%); the registered warehouse receipts are 142,275 tons, down 2,775 tons (- 1.91%); and the cancelled warehouse receipts are 16,100 tons, up 2,575 tons (19.04%) [15]. 3.6.3 COMEX Copper Inventory - The total COMEX copper inventory is 302,744 tons, up 28,977 tons (10.58%) on a weekly basis [16]. 3.7 Copper Import Profit and Processing - The copper import profit and loss is - 47.85 yuan/ton, up 5.33 yuan (- 10.02%); the copper concentrate TC is - 40.6 US dollars/ton, with no change [17].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views - **Domestic and Overseas Economy**: Domestically, pro - service consumption policies in September and real - estate policies are being promoted, but their effects need further observation. Industrial profit repair takes time. Overseas, the US economy shows "soft landing" features, and employment data strengthens the market's Fed rate - cut expectation. Attention should be paid to non - farm employment and unemployment data. Also, the high prices of long - term bonds in the UK, Germany, and France may lead to speculation about a global credit "crisis" [2]. - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: The core of the current RMB - US dollar exchange rate is the rhythm control. External environment changes will dominate the short - term spot exchange rate. After a strong employment report followed by a weak QCEW correction notice, market dovish sentiment may increase. The non - farm data is crucial. The RMB - US dollar spot exchange rate is likely to gradually repair to a reasonable equilibrium, with attention on market sentiment around 7.13 [4]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index is expected to adjust in the short term, with limited downside space [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market lacks upward momentum, and the 10 - year Treasury yield has resistance around 1.75%. The market may enter a short - term shock. It is not advisable to chase high, and previous long positions should stop profit [7]. - **Container Shipping**: The short - term weak and volatile pattern continues. There are uncertainties from US tariffs and mainstream shipping companies' Golden Week blank - sailing plans. EC is likely to continue to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Commodities - Non - ferrous Metals**: - Copper: Copper prices may remain strong in the short term due to tight supply and the Fed rate - cut expectation [12]. - Aluminum: Aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, with a price range of 20,500 - 21,000. It is recommended to build positions in batches on dips. Alumina is in a weak and volatile state, and it is recommended to sell call options. Cast aluminum alloy is also volatile and strong [14]. - Lead: Lead prices are expected to fluctuate, and strategies such as selling out - of - the - money call options or double - selling can be considered [16]. - Zinc: Zinc prices are affected by the macro environment and are expected to be in a bottom - strong and volatile state in the short term. Trading strategies such as selling the outer market and buying the inner market or selling out - of - the - money put options can be considered [19]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Affected by the non - ferrous market, they are expected to be in a volatile state. Attention should be paid to the impact of the Fed rate - cut expectation and the US dollar trend [21]. - Tin: Tin prices are expected to be slightly strong due to tight supply, with a target of 276,000 yuan per ton [23]. - Lithium Carbonate: The market is in a shock - adjustment stage. It is recommended to observe the spot - futures price difference and downstream actual receiving situations [24]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: Industrial silicon has limited downward space and is expected to rise in the medium - to - long - term. Polysilicon is in a wide - range shock state, and caution is needed in operation [26][27]. - **Commodities - Black Metals**: - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The steel market is in a weak fundamental state, with prices facing upward pressure. However, there are expectations for peak - season demand, and the market may be in a short - term shock - adjustment state. Attention should be paid to actual peak - season demand and macro policies [29]. - Iron Ore: Iron ore prices are currently strong but the rise may not be sustainable. Attention should be paid to short - selling hedging opportunities [31]. - Coking Coal and Coke: After the lifting of the military - parade production restrictions, the supply - demand gap of coke is expected to narrow. There may be room for the coke price to fall in the short term. Coking coal has a loose supply - demand structure, but short - term over - supply is not serious. Attention should be paid to pre - National - Day replenishment and peak - season demand verification [33]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: The supply of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is loose, and they are in a bottom - shock state. It is recommended to go long on the spread between the two when the spread is - 400 for the 01 contract [34][36]. - **Commodities - Energy and Chemicals**: - Crude Oil: The uncertainty of OPEC+ production increase is high, which will affect oil prices next week. Geopolitical risks are short - term interference factors. The oil market may face downward risks after the market sentiment subsides [38]. - LPG: LPG is expected to maintain a volatile state, affected by overseas factors, with controllable supply and uncertain demand [40]. - PTA - PX: The PX - TA market is mainly affected by structural contradictions, with a long - term trend of concentrated profits towards the PX end. It is recommended to shrink the PTA01 processing fee when it is above 350 [43]. - MEG - Bottle Chip: Ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate between 4,250 - 4,500, mainly following cost and commodity sentiment. It is recommended to build long positions on dips or sell the 4,250 put option for the 10 - contract [47]. - Methanol: The main contradiction of methanol lies in port pressure and high Iranian shipments. It is recommended to hold a small number of long positions and sold put options and pay attention to Iranian shipments and port pick - up [48]. - PP: The supply of PP is increasing, and the demand is uncertain. Its future trend depends on whether downstream demand can maintain high growth [51]. - PE: PE is in a pattern of decreasing supply and increasing demand, but the driving force from demand is not strong. It is expected to be in a volatile state [53]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene: The short - term unilateral driving force of pure benzene and styrene is weak. Pure benzene is expected to be weak and volatile, and for styrene, it is not recommended to short - sell unilaterally. Wait for the end of the decline and then consider buying at a low price [55][56]. - Fuel Oil: Fuel oil is dragged down by OPEC production increase expectations, and the downward driving force remains [57]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by OPEC production increase news. Its valuation is low, and it is recommended to wait for long - position opportunities [59]. - Asphalt: Asphalt's short - term performance is mainly affected by cost. In the medium - to - long - term, demand may improve with the arrival of the construction season, but there are still rainfall disturbances [61]. - Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber: Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate, with a slow upward - moving center of gravity. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally and hold positive spreads for RU9 - 1 [65]. - Urea: Urea is in a pattern with support below and suppression above. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate between 1,650 - 1,850. Attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [66][67]. - Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda: Soda ash has a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern, with stable demand and high upstream and mid - stream inventories [68]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: US ISM service PMI expands at the fastest pace in half a year, but employment is weak, and prices remain high. The trade deficit widens, and the Fed rate - cut expectation is strengthened [1]. - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: The on - shore RMB - US dollar exchange rate rises. External environment changes will dominate the short - term spot exchange rate. Attention should be paid to non - farm data [3][4]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index falls with increased volume, and it is expected to adjust in the short term with limited downside space [4][5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market lacks upward momentum, and the 10 - year Treasury yield has resistance around 1.75%. The market may enter a short - term shock [7]. Container Shipping - The short - term weak and volatile pattern continues. There are uncertainties from US tariffs and shipping companies' blank - sailing plans [8][10]. Commodities - Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price falls slightly but may remain strong in the short term due to tight supply and the Fed rate - cut expectation [11][12]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum is volatile and strong in the short term, with a price range of 20,500 - 21,000. Alumina is weak and volatile, and cast aluminum alloy is also volatile and strong [13][14]. - **Lead**: Lead prices fluctuate, and strategies such as selling out - of - the - money call options can be considered [15][16]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices are affected by the macro environment and are in a bottom - strong and volatile state in the short term [18][19]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Affected by the non - ferrous market, they are in a volatile state, and attention should be paid to the Fed rate - cut expectation and the US dollar trend [19][21]. - **Tin**: Tin prices are slightly strong due to tight supply, with a target of 276,000 yuan per ton [23]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is in a shock - adjustment stage. Observe the spot - futures price difference and downstream actual receiving situations [23][24]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has limited downward space and is expected to rise in the medium - to - long - term. Polysilicon is in a wide - range shock state [25][27]. Commodities - Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Steel mills resume production after the military parade. The market is in a weak fundamental state, with prices facing upward pressure but also supported by peak - season demand expectations [28][29]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore prices are strong, but the rise may not be sustainable. Attention should be paid to short - selling hedging opportunities [30][31]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: After the lifting of production restrictions, the coke supply - demand gap is expected to narrow. Coking coal has a loose supply - demand structure [31][33]. - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: The supply of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is loose, and they are in a bottom - shock state [34]. Commodities - Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ production increase expectations and US crude oil inventory accumulation lead to a decline in oil prices. The uncertainty of OPEC+ production increase affects future prices [37][38]. - **LPG**: LPG is affected by overseas factors, with controllable supply and uncertain demand, and is expected to maintain a volatile state [39][40]. - **PTA - PX**: The PX - TA market is affected by structural contradictions, with a long - term trend of concentrated profits towards the PX end [41][43]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: Ethylene glycol oscillates between 4,250 - 4,500, mainly following cost and commodity sentiment [44][47]. - **Methanol**: The main contradiction of methanol lies in port pressure and high Iranian shipments [48]. - **PP**: The supply of PP is increasing, and the demand is uncertain, depending on downstream demand growth [50][51]. - **PE**: PE is in a pattern of decreasing supply and increasing demand, but the demand driving force is not strong [52][53]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The short - term unilateral driving force of pure benzene and styrene is weak [54][56]. - **Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil is dragged down by OPEC production increase expectations [57]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by OPEC production increase news, with low valuation [59]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt's short - term performance is mainly affected by cost, and demand may improve in the medium - to - long - term [60][61]. - **Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber**: Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate, with a slow upward - moving center of gravity [62][65]. - **Urea**: Urea is in a pattern with support below and suppression above, and attention should be paid to the 1 - 5 reverse spread [66][67]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: Soda ash has a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern [68].

Report Overview - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report - Date: September 5, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The recent strength of tin prices is mainly due to tight supply. Yunnan Tin plans to shut down for maintenance from August 30 for 45 days as expected. In August 2025, China's refined tin production decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, mainly affected by some enterprises' shutdown for maintenance and the decrease in tin concentrate imports in July. In the short term, with stable macro conditions, despite demand pressure, tin prices may rise slightly further due to tight supply, with the upper target tentatively set at 276,000 yuan per ton [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Tin Price Volatility and Risk Management - **Price Volatility**: The latest closing price of tin is 272,020 yuan, the monthly price range forecast is 245,000 - 263,000 yuan, the current volatility is 13.06%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.5% [2] - **Risk Management Suggestions**: - **Inventory Management**: For high finished - product inventory and fear of price decline, recommend selling 75% of Shanghai tin main - contract futures at around 275,000 yuan and selling 25% of call options (SN2511C275000) when volatility is appropriate [2] - **Raw Material Management**: For low raw - material inventory and fear of price increase, recommend buying 50% of Shanghai tin main - contract futures at around 230,000 yuan and selling 25% of put options (SN2511P260000) when volatility is appropriate [2] 2. Factors Affecting Tin Prices - **Likely Positive Factors**: Sino - US tariff policy easing, the semiconductor sector still in the expansion cycle, and Myanmar's resumption of production falling short of expectations [4][5] - **Likely Negative Factors**: Tariff policy reversals, the inflow of Myanmar's tin ore into China, and the semiconductor sector's expansion slowing down and moving from the expansion cycle to the contraction cycle [5] 3. Tin Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Data**: - **Domestic**: The latest prices of Shanghai tin main contract, Shanghai tin continuous - one, and Shanghai tin continuous - three are all stable, while the price of LME tin 3M is 34,425 US dollars per ton, down 195 US dollars or 0.56% [6] - **Ratio**: The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.89, up 0.04 or 0.51% [6] - **Spot Data**: - **Prices**: The prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots, 40% and 60% tin concentrates, and some solder products have increased slightly on a weekly basis, while some other products are stable [10] - **Imports and Processing Fees**: Tin import profit and loss is - 18,752.84 yuan per ton, down 7.34% daily, and tin ore processing fees are stable [10] 4. Tin Inventory Data - **Domestic Inventory**: The total warehouse receipt quantity of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 7,495 tons, up 1.19% daily, with different changes in Guangdong and Shanghai [13] - **LME Inventory**: The total LME tin inventory is 2,195 tons, up 0.92% [13]