棉花产业风险管理日报 2025/5/27 陈嘉宁（投资咨询证号：Z0020097 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 棉花近期价格区间预测 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | | 12800-13700 | 0.1172 | 0.279 | source： 南华研究 棉花风险管理策略建议 【利多解读】 1、24/25年度北疆棉花含杂偏高，优质资源偏紧，且目前剩余棉花货权多集中在大型轧花企业与贸易商手 中，棉花基差偏强 2、下游纱布厂整体负荷偏高，存在刚性的补库需求 【利空解读】 1、24/25年度北疆新棉加工成本多集中在15000元/吨上下，尚有部分新棉未套保 2、下游处于传统淡季，中美关税下调所带来的出口订单增量有限，下游走货偏慢，在政策频繁变动下， 下游观望情绪较重 | 行为 导向 | 情景分析 | 现货 敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖 方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入 场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

聚乙烯风险管理日报 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 顾恒烨（期货从业证号：F03143348 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 聚乙烯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 聚乙烯 | 6900-7200 | 15.22% | 78.4% | source： 南华研究 聚乙烯套保策略表 | | 情景分析 | 现货 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖 | 套保比例(%) | 建议入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 敞口 | | | 方向 | | 场区间 | | | 产成品库存偏高，担心 塑料价格下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货跌价损失，可以根据企业的库存情 况，做空塑料期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产 成本 | L2509 | 卖出 | 25% | 7150- 7200 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降低成本，若聚乙烯价 格上涨还可以锁定现货卖出价格 | L250 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The oversupply pattern in the lithium carbonate market is expected to continue in Q2, with no significant growth in demand-side production scheduling. The supply side shows no obvious improvement, and both lithium ore and lithium salt inventories face great pressure, with a slow de-stocking process. The main market contradiction is that the pressure of lithium salt production capacity clearance is gradually spreading to the upstream ore end, and the loosening of ore prices will further drive down lithium salt prices. There is a risk of a spiral decline in ore and lithium salt prices [3]. - The fundamentals remain weak, but as the lithium carbonate price continues to decline, the probability of supply-side disturbances will increase. Be vigilant against sharp fluctuations caused by short covering. The short-term strong resistance level is 63,000 - 65,000 [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Price and Volatility - The pressure level of the lithium carbonate main contract is 65,000, the current volatility (20 - day rolling) is 25.3%, and the current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) is 30.1% [2]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For companies with high product inventories and inventory impairment risks, strategies include shorting lithium carbonate futures (using LC2508, selling, 60% hedging ratio, strategy level 2), selling call options (using over - the - counter/on - exchange options, selling, 60% hedging ratio, strategy level 3), and buying out - of - the - money put options (using on - exchange/over - the - counter options, buying, strategy level 2) [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For companies with future production plans and the risk of rising raw material prices, strategies include selling put options (using on - exchange/over - the - counter options, selling, hedging ratio based on procurement plan, strategy level 1 - 3), buying long - term lithium carbonate contracts (using far - month lithium carbonate contracts, buying, hedging ratio based on procurement plan), and buying out - of - the - money call options (using on - exchange/over - the - counter options, buying, hedging ratio based on procurement plan, strategy level 1) [2]. 3.3 Market News - It is rumored that several lithium salt plants plan to conduct maintenance in June, which is expected to affect the monthly lithium salt output by about 3,000 tons. Combined with last Thursday's shutdown, it is expected to affect the future monthly output by 4,500 tons, but it has little impact on the current lithium carbonate market [4]. 3.4利多 and利空 Factors - **利多 Factors**: Positive macro - policies may stimulate power demand growth; the probability of upstream ore and lithium salt plant shutdowns and maintenance increases as prices fall; there is an expectation of "90 - day" export rush due to the easing of Sino - US game, leading to passive de - stocking; high open interest may cause a rebound in the market due to short profit - taking [5][6]. - **利空 Factors**: There are still many future lithium ore production expectations, and high inventories suppress ore prices, which may drag down lithium carbonate costs; both lithium ore and lithium salt inventories are high and still in the process of inventory accumulation; industrial technology upgrades delay the clearance of high - cost production capacity [6]. 3.5 Price and Spread Data - **Futures Price Changes**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is 60,920, with a daily increase of 820 (1.36%), and a year - on - year decrease of 42.64%. The trading volume of the main contract is 392,469, with a daily increase of 130,487 (49.81%), and a year - on - year increase of 309.68%. The open interest of the futures main contract is 293,695, with a daily decrease of 32,777 (-10.04%), and a year - on - year increase of 71.11% [8]. - **Spot Price Changes**: The SMM average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 62,500, down 550 (-0.87%); the SMM average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 60,900, down 550 (-0.9%); the SMM average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide is 64,420, down 300 (-0.46%); the SMM average price of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide is 58,400, down 260 (-0.44%); the SMM average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF in China, Japan, and South Korea is 8.4 dollars/kg, down 0.05 (-0.59%); the fastmarkets average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF in China, Japan, and South Korea is 8.4 dollars/kg, with no change [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate Brand Basis**: The basis quotes of various lithium carbonate brands remain unchanged compared to the previous day [10][11]. - **Lithium Carbonate Month - to - Month Spread**: The spreads of LC07 - 08, LC08 - 11, LC11 - 12, and LC12 - 03 have different degrees of change compared to the previous period, with significant year - on - year changes [13]. - **Lithium Industry Chain Spread**: The difference between electric and industrial carbonates is 1,600 (no change); the difference between battery - grade carbonate and hydroxide is 1,920, up 250 (14.97%); the difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF in China, Japan, and South Korea and the domestic price is -4,080.28, down 131.83 (3.34%) [18]. - **Lithium Ore and Shipping Cost**: The average price of lithium mica (2% - 2.5%) is 1,260, down 20 (-1.56%); the average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) is 688 dollars/ton, down 2 (-0.29%); the fastmarkets price of lithium spodumene (6%) is 645 dollars/ton (no change); the price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, Zimbabwe) is 635 dollars/ton, down 15 (-2%) [20]. 3.6 Warehouse Receipt Data - The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 34,154, a daily decrease of 825. Different warehouses have different changes in warehouse receipt quantities [23][24].

玻璃纯碱产业风险管理日报 2025/05/27 寿佳露（投资咨询证号：Z0020569） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 玻璃纯碱价格区间预测 | | 行为 | 现货 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 导向 | 敞口 | | 具 | | （%） | | | 玻 璃 | 库存 管理 | 产成品库存偏高， 担心玻璃价格下跌 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存情 况，做空玻璃期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产 成本 | FG250 9 | 卖出 | 50% | 1100 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降低成本，若玻璃上涨 | FG509 | 卖出 | 50% | 20-30 | | | | | 还可以锁定现货卖出价格 | C1200 | | | | | 碱 | 管理 | 担心纯碱价格下跌 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的库存情 况，做空纯碱期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生产 | SA250 | 卖出 | 50% ...

日报 . 烧碱产业风险管理日报 【利多解读】 基本面短期无明显压力；后续检修较多 ；需求端氧化铝利润改善，有复产预期；非铝抢出口改善。 【利空解读】 中长期有过剩压力，供应端有集中投产预期，需求增量不足支撑行情反转。 烧碱价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 烧碱 | 2400-2600 | 24.53% | 50.1% | 2025/05/27 寿佳露（投资咨询证号：Z0020569） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 【核心矛盾】 短期基本面尚有支撑，现货端无明显压力，暂时看不到明显下跌驱动；中长期有投产压力，限制价格高度，整体偏 震荡对待。 source： 南华研究 烧碱风险管理策略建议 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 现货敞 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 买卖方 | | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | 口 | | | 向 | （%） | 区间 | | ...

南华期货铅风险管理报告 2025年5月27日 南华有⾊⾦属研究团队 肖宇⾮ 投资咨询证号： Z0018441 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1290号 铅价格波动率（日度） | 最新价格 | 预测区间 | 当前波动率 | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 16795 | 16500-17000 | 9.08% | 30.9% | source： 同花顺,南华研究 铅风险管理建议（日度） 利多因素： 1. 铅精矿供应偏紧。 2. 冶炼厂利润较差，惜售情绪上升。 3. 宏观情绪缓和，贸易形势向好 。 利空因素： 重要新闻： | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 产成品库存偏高，担心价格下跌 | | 多 | 做空沪铅主力期货合约 | 沪铅主力期货合约 | 卖出 | 75% | 17000 | | | | | 暂无 | 沪铅期权 | 暂无 | 暂无 | 暂无 | | ...

夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年5月27日 【行情回顾】 周一贵金属价格窄幅震荡整理，美国市场周一因阵亡将⼠纪念⽇休假。美欧贸易战担忧缓和则削弱避 险情绪。最终黄金2506合约收报3342.2美元/盎司，-0.7%；美白银2507合约收报于33.645美元/盎司， +0.11%。 SHFE黄金2508主力合约收报777.3元/克，+0.29%；SHFE白银2506合约收8280元/千克， +0.49%。 【降息预期与基金持仓】 据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储6月维持利率不变的概率为94.4%，降息25个基点的概率为 5.6%；美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为74.9%，累计降息25个基点的概率为23.9%，累计降息50个基点 的概率为1.1%；美联储9月维持利率不变的概率42.2%，累计降息25个基点的概率为46.2%，累计降息50 个基点的概率为11.1%，累计降息75个基点的概率为0.5%。长线基金看，SPDR黄金ETF持仓维持在 922.46吨；iShares白银ETF持仓维持在14217.5吨。库存方面，SHFE银库存日减3. ...

镍&不锈钢：短期基本面无明显驱动 南华新能源&贵金属研究团队 夏莹莹 投资咨询证号：Z0016569 管城瀚 从业资格证号：F0313867 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 沪镍区间预测 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 11.9-12.9 | 13.79% | 0.7% | source： 南华研究,wind 沪镍管理策略 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 | 套保比例 | 策略等级（满分 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | | | 向 | | 5） | | 库存管 理 | 产品销售价格下跌，库存有减值风险 | 根据库存水平做空沪镍期货来锁定利润，对冲现货下跌风 险 | 沪镍主力合约 卖出 | | 60% | 2 | | | | | 场外/场内期 | | | | | | | 卖出看涨期权 | 权 | 卖出 | 50% | 2 | | 采购管 理 | 公司未来有生产采购需求，担心原料价格上 涨 | 根据 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The medium - to long - term outlook for precious metals is bullish, and the short - term trend is strengthening. However, considering the high volatility of gold and the fact that the 90 - day tariff suspension observation period of peripheral economies has just entered the second half, it is expected that there will be a period of volatility reduction and consolidation from the end of May to June. London gold has resistance at 3365, strong resistance in the 3440 - 3500 area, and support at 3300, 3200, and 3100. London silver has support at 33, strong support in the 31.6 - 32 area, resistance at 33.7, and if it breaks through, it can reach 34 and 34.5. Short - term corrections are regarded as medium - to long - term buying opportunities, but it may remain in high - level oscillations recently [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review - Last week, COMEX precious metals showed a strong overall trend. Moody's downgraded the US sovereign rating, the US tax cut bill was passed in the House of Representatives, and the instability of the Middle East geopolitical situation, especially US President Trump's threat on the 23rd to impose a 50% tariff on goods imported from the EU starting from June 1, reignited risk - aversion sentiment. The surrounding US dollar index dropped significantly and fell below 100, the 10Y US Treasury yield rose slightly, and the three major US stock indexes declined, reflecting the selling pressure under the triple - kill of US asset stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange, which was conducive to the pursuit of safe - haven assets. The rapid rise of medium - and long - term Japanese bond yields may have a depreciation effect on the US dollar and an impact on tariff trade negotiations. Currently, there are deep differences among the US and its major allies such as the EU, Japan, and South Korea, and political factors are complex. Therefore, the risk - aversion demand under trade tariffs may still appear intermittently [2]. 3.2. Capital and Inventory - **Fund Holdings**: Long - term fund holdings: Last week, the SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 3.73 tons to 922.46 tons, and the iShares Silver ETF holdings increased by 302.6 tons to 14217.5 tons. Short - term fund holdings: According to the CFTC holdings report as of May 20, the non - commercial net long positions in gold increased by 2772 contracts to 163981 contracts, with long positions slightly decreasing by 129 contracts and short positions decreasing by 2901 contracts. The non - commercial net long positions in silver increased by 2288 contracts to 50042 contracts, with long positions increasing by 2947 contracts and short positions increasing by 659 contracts [3]. - **Inventory**: COMEX gold inventory decreased by 4.13 tons to 1206.45 tons, and COMEX silver inventory decreased by 170.1 tons to 15449 tons. SHFE gold inventory increased by 9 kg to 17.25 tons, and SHFE silver inventory increased by 73.6 tons to 960.64 tons. The Shanghai Gold Exchange silver inventory (as of the week of May 16) decreased by 91.86 tons to 1482.5 tons [3]. 3.3. This Week's Focus - This week, in terms of data, focus on the US April PCE data and the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index on Friday evening. The US is closed on Monday for Memorial Day, and the domestic night session is closed on Friday for the Dragon Boat Festival holiday. In terms of events, at 02:40 on Monday, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will give a graduation speech at Princeton University's graduation ceremony; at 21:00, European Central Bank President Lagarde will give a speech at the Hertie School in Berlin. At 08:00 on Wednesday, FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will participate in a panel discussion at the Bank of Japan's Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies. At 02:00 on Thursday, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its May monetary policy meeting [4]. 3.4. Price and Inventory Tables - **Precious Metal Futures and Spot Prices**: SHFE gold main - continuous contract is at 780.1 yuan/gram, SGX gold TD is at 775.72 yuan/gram, CME gold main contract is at 3357.7 US dollars/ounce, etc. [5]. - **Inventory and Holdings**: SHFE gold inventory is 17247 kg, CME gold inventory is 1206.6146 tons, etc. [15]. - **Stock, Bond, and Commodity Overview**: The US dollar index is at 99.1235, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is at 41603.07 points, etc. [21].

【降息预期与基金持仓】 据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储6月维持利率不变的概率为94.6%，降息25个基点的概率为 5.4%；美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为73.1%，累计降息25个基点的概率为25.7%，累计降息50个基点 的概率为1.2%；美联储9月维持利率不变的概率36%，累计降息25个基点的概率为49.7%，累计降息50 个基点的概率为13.6%，累计降息75个基点的概率为0.6%。长线基金看，SPDR黄金ETF持仓日增4.01吨 至923.89吨；iShares白银ETF持仓日增77.77吨至14132.67吨。库存方面，SHFE银库存日增8.4吨至 949.2吨；截止5月16日当周的SGX白银库存周减91.8吨至1482.5吨。 【本周关注】 贵金属日报 短期震荡 中长期看涨 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年5月23日 【行情回顾】 周四贵金属价格震荡调整，美指回升抑制贵金属价格，且日盘opec+讨论7月再次大规模增产消息引发 黄金跟随原油回落。昨日美债汇抛售压力暂缓。最终黄金2506合约收报3295.1美元/盎司，-0. ...