国债期货日报 2025/11/19 徐晨曦（投资咨询证号：Z0001908） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290 观点：关注央行政策操作 盘面点评： 周三期债低开后快速下探，此后低位震荡，品种全线收跌。资金面缓解，DR001在回落至1.42%附近。公开 市场逆回购3105亿，净投放1150亿。 重要资讯： 1.财政部5年、7年国债加权中标收益率分别为1.5610%、1.6720%，边际中标收益率分别为1.5907%、 1.6985%，全场倍数分别为3.95、4.86。 2.贝森特：特朗普将在圣诞节前决定美联储新主席人选。 3.日媒：中国已向日本通报暂停进口日本水产品。 行情研判： 今日 A股反弹，债市受到一定影响。资金面边际转松，一级市场国债加权中标利率明显低于二级市场，发行 情况不错，但二级市场不为所动。目前股市、资金面、新债发行均不是影响市场的关键因素，短期市场缺乏 有力驱动。在货币政策缺乏信号的情况下，短期市场难以打破震荡格局，中期在基本面支持下仍有一定上涨 空间。操作上，中期多单继续持有。 | | 2025-11-19 | 2025-11-18 | 今日涨跌 | | 2025-11-19 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 2026 mid - term elections pose a difficult defensive battle for Trump and the Republican Party. Due to historical trends, Trump's personal poll performance, and potential structural factors, the Republican Party has a relatively high probability of losing control of the House of Representatives, and the Senate election will be more intense with high risks [2]. - If the Republicans win, the double - loose policy will promote economic expansion, which is beneficial to the stock market and commodities, but there are inflation risks. If they lose, Trump's policy implementation will be hindered, market risk - aversion sentiment will rise, and technology and financial stocks will be under pressure [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. The "Curse" Phenomenon and Historical Review of US Mid - term Elections - **Qualitative Definition of the "Mid - term Election Curse"**: In mid - term elections, the president's party usually loses seats, which is a normal and regular phenomenon, reflecting the political psychology of US voters, the power - balance system design, and the internal laws of the political cycle [6]. - **Historical Data Support**: - On average, the president's party loses 25.7 seats in the House and 3.3 seats in the Senate in mid - term elections. The probability of the president's party retaining the majority in both houses is only about 30% [7]. - Even if a president wins a "sweep" in the previous election, the probability of maintaining the party's majority in both houses in the subsequent mid - term election is only 36.36% [9]. II. Analysis of the Causes of the "Mid - term Election Curse" - **Traditional Theories and Mainstream Explanations**: - **Undulation Theory**: Voters mobilized in the presidential election are less likely to vote in mid - term elections, leading to a natural decline in the ruling party's vote - share [11]. - **Presidential Punishment Effect**: Mid - term elections are a "referendum" on the president's performance. Voters punish the president's party for economic problems, social contradictions, and unpopular policies [12]. - **Mid - term Election Referendum Theory**: Voters base their votes on the current economic situation and satisfaction with the president's leadership [13]. - **Power - Balance Theory**: Voters support the opposition party to strengthen congressional checks on the president and prevent excessive expansion of executive power [14]. - **Balancing Theory**: Voters create a "divided government" to achieve power balance and prevent one - party dominance [15]. - **Pendulum Effect**: Political support swings between the ruling and opposition parties, reflecting voters' resistance to one - party rule [16]. - **Issue Evolution Theory**: Mid - term election issues are more specific and local, and can change suddenly, affecting voter behavior [17]. - **Turnout Differential Theory**: Voter participation rates and structures differ between presidential and mid - term elections, with "core voters" having a greater impact in mid - term elections [18]. - **Backlash against Radical Policies**: Radical policies by the president can lead to a strong voter backlash in mid - term elections [19]. - **Media and Information Flow Theory**: Mid - term election media coverage is more fragmented, and voters rely more on party loyalty or simple anti - ruling - party strategies [20]. - **Reversion to Mean Theory**: The ideological distribution of voters in mid - term elections returns to the average level, causing a decline in the ruling party's support [21]. - **Impact on the 2026 Elections**: The "presidential punishment effect", "backlash against radical policies", "issue evolution theory", and "turnout differential theory" will have a significant impact on the 2026 mid - term elections [24][25]. III. Trump's "Final Battle": In - depth Analysis of the 2026 Mid - term Election Strategy and Market Impact - **Importance of the 2026 Mid - term Elections**: The 2026 mid - term elections are crucial for Trump's political legacy. The results will determine his political influence and policy - implementation space in the remaining term [27]. - **Review of the 2018 Loss**: - **Contrast between Economic Data and Support Rate**: In 2018, the US economic data was good, but Trump's support rate was low because voters' evaluations were affected by personal style, divisive remarks, and the actual impact of policies on daily life [29]. - **Core Reasons for the Loss**: - **Policy Imbalance**: Fiscal, monetary, and trade policies offset each other, causing double - impacts on market confidence and people's livelihoods [32]. - **Shortcomings in Campaign Strategy**: The Republican Party failed to mobilize voters effectively, especially in suburban and female voter groups, and the campaign focus was misaligned with voters' concerns [42]. - **Outburst of Dissatisfaction**: The rise in the cost of living in core areas such as healthcare, education, and housing became the core issue in the election, and negative public opinion led to a decline in Trump's support rate [42]. - **Lessons Learned and 2026 Strategies**: - **Policy Coordination**: Adopt a "loose - money + loose - fiscal + stable - trade" policy system, including nominating a dovish Fed chair, implementing more active fiscal policies, and adjusting trade policies [47][48]. - **Campaign Focus**: Shift the focus from macro - data to tangible benefits for people's livelihoods, and actively set campaign agendas around people's livelihood issues [49]. - **Internal Integration**: Strengthen internal unity within the party and establish a more effective public - opinion feedback mechanism [51]. IV. Market Outlook and Potential Risks - The performance of the US stock market is significantly related to the presidential term cycle. The second year (mid - term election year) is often a testing period for the stock market, with higher volatility and downward pressure [52].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report Macro and Financial Futures - Overseas, focus on the impact of the US government shutdown on the economy and Fed personnel changes. Domestically, the economy shows a marginal slowdown, and policy support is crucial [2]. - The RMB exchange rate is expected to be supported by seasonal factors and weak US employment data, but attention should be paid to US non - farm payroll data [3]. - The stock index is expected to continue to adjust in the short term, but the downside is limited, and the defensive index is expected to perform better [5]. - Treasury bonds are expected to maintain a short - term shock and have an upward space in the medium term [6]. Commodities Metals - Precious metals are expected to continue to adjust in the short term due to unclear December interest rate cut prospects, but will rise in the medium - long term [15]. - Copper prices are expected to recover after a decline, but the recovery is limited [18]. - Aluminum is expected to be volatile in the short term and bullish in the medium - long term; alumina is bearish; cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile at a high level [19]. - Zinc is expected to be under pressure and volatile [20]. - Nickel and stainless steel are in a weak state, with limited further decline space, but the downside is greater than the upside [22]. - Tin is expected to be volatile at a high level, and it is recommended to enter the market on dips [23]. - Lead is under pressure due to inventory accumulation, but the supply - demand balance is gradually recovering [24]. Black Metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coils are expected to be range - bound, with the risk of negative feedback increasing [28]. - Iron ore is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, and it is recommended to short on rallies after the basis is repaired [30]. - Coking coal and coke are expected to be volatile at a low level in the short term, and suitable for long - positions in the medium - long term [33]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are expected to be weakly volatile due to high inventory and weak demand [34]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil is expected to be range - bound at a low level in the short - medium term, with the risk of a corrective market after the positive factors fade [39]. - LPG is expected to maintain a relatively strong pattern, but with high valuations [41]. - PX - PTA is expected to be strongly volatile with the cost side, but the PTA surplus expectation remains [46]. - MEG is expected to be short - sold on rallies, with the support at around 3700 [50]. - Methanol 01 is expected to continue to decline to find support [52]. - PP has enhanced cost support, and it is advisable to try long positions on dips in the short term [55]. - PE is expected to have limited downside and upside pressure, with a short - term improvement in the supply - demand pattern [58]. - Pure benzene and styrene are expected to be range - bound, with limited rebound height [60]. - Fuel oil's cracking is weakening, and low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be volatile at a low level with upward drivers [61][64]. - Asphalt is expected to be volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to winter storage [66]. - Rubber and 20 - number rubber are expected to be volatile, with a weak long - term demand outlook [70]. - Urea is expected to be range - bound, with short - term support from export policies and coal prices [71]. - Soda ash is expected to be range - bound, with cost support and high - level supply [72]. - Glass is expected to decline in the 01 contract but has cost support in the long term [73]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - Market news includes Sino - Russian meetings, US employment data, Saudi - US investment, Fed chair selection, and overseas investor holdings of US Treasury bonds [1]. - Core logic focuses on the impact of the US government shutdown and Fed personnel changes overseas, and domestic economic slowdown and policy support [2]. RMB Exchange Rate - Market review shows the decline of the on - shore RMB against the US dollar [3]. - Important information includes US employment data and Fed chair selection [3]. - Core logic indicates that the RMB is expected to be supported by weak US data and seasonal factors [3]. Stock Index - Market review shows the decline of the stock index and changes in trading volume [4][5]. - Important information includes US employment data [5]. - Core logic suggests that the stock index is in a game between policy expectations and profit - taking, with limited downside [5]. Treasury Bonds - Market review shows the rise of bond futures and tight capital [6]. - Important information includes US stock declines and Fed chair decision time [6]. - Core view indicates that bonds are expected to be volatile in the short term and rise in the medium term [6]. Container Shipping to Europe - Market review shows the decline of the container shipping index (European line) futures [7]. - Information includes supply - demand factors and geopolitical risks [8][9]. - Trading judgment suggests a weak and volatile trend, and it is advisable to wait and see [10]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals Gold & Silver - Market review shows the volatile consolidation of precious metals [12]. - Interest rate cut expectations and fund holdings show the change in expectations and stable holdings [13][14]. - This week's focus includes US economic data and Fed officials' speeches [14]. - View suggests short - term adjustment and medium - long - term rise [15]. Copper - Market review shows the decline of copper prices [16]. - Industry information includes inventory changes and import - export data [16][17]. - View suggests limited recovery of copper prices [18]. Aluminum Industry Chain - Market review shows the decline of aluminum - related prices [18][19]. - Core view indicates different trends for aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy [19]. Zinc - Market review shows the price of zinc [20]. - Core logic suggests that zinc is under pressure due to high - cost and low - demand [20]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Market review shows the price of nickel and stainless steel [21]. - Market analysis indicates a weak trend and limited decline space [22]. Tin - Market review shows the price of tin [23]. - Core logic suggests high - level volatility and it is advisable to enter on dips [23]. Lead - Market review shows the price of lead [23]. - Core logic suggests pressure due to inventory and supply - demand balance recovery [23]. Black Metals Rebar & Hot - rolled Coils - Market review shows the impact of environmental inspections on steel prices [25]. - Core logic indicates the supply - demand situation and the risk of negative feedback [27]. - View suggests range - bound trading [28]. Iron Ore - Market information shows the price trend of iron ore and the impact of coking coal [29]. - View suggests shorting on rallies after basis repair [30]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market review shows low - level volatility [31]. - Information includes coal production and steel exports [32]. - Core logic and strategy suggest short - term adjustment and medium - long - term long - positions [33]. Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese - Market review shows the decline following coking coal [34]. - Core logic suggests high - inventory and weak - demand, with a weak and volatile trend [34]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Market dynamics show the rise of oil prices [37]. - Market news includes inventory changes and geopolitical events [38]. - View suggests short - medium - term range - bound trading and risk of correction [39]. LPG - Market dynamics show the price of LPG [40]. - Fundamental analysis indicates a relatively strong pattern with high valuations [41]. PTA - PX - Fundamental situation shows changes in supply, demand, and efficiency [42][43][44][45]. - View suggests strong volatility with the cost side and PTA surplus [46]. MEG - Bottle Chip - Inventory shows the increase in East China port inventory [47]. - Device information includes start - up and shutdown [47][48]. - Fundamental situation shows supply - demand and cost - profit changes [48][49][50]. - View suggests short - selling on rallies with support at 3700 [50]. Methanol - Market dynamics show the price of methanol [51]. - Inventory shows changes in port inventory [51]. - View suggests the decline of methanol 01 [52]. PP - Market dynamics show the price of PP [53]. - Fundamental analysis indicates enhanced cost support and short - term long - positions on dips [55]. PE - Market dynamics show the price of PE [56]. - Fundamental analysis suggests limited upside and downside with short - term improvement [58]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market review shows the price of pure benzene and styrene [59]. - Inventory shows changes in port and factory inventory [59]. - View suggests range - bound trading with limited rebound [60]. Fuel Oil - Market review shows the price of fuel oil [61]. - Industry performance shows supply - demand and inventory changes [61]. - Core logic suggests weakening cracking for high - sulfur and upward drivers for low - sulfur [61][64]. Asphalt - Market review shows the price of asphalt [65]. - Fundamental situation shows changes in supply, demand, and inventory [65]. - View suggests short - term volatility and attention to winter storage [66]. Rubber & 20 - number Rubber - Industry dynamics include production, export, and inventory data [67][68][69]. - Core view suggests weak long - term demand and short - term volatility [70]. Urea - Market dynamics show the price of urea [71]. - Inventory shows changes in production and inventory [71]. - View suggests range - bound trading with short - term support [71]. Soda Ash - Market dynamics show the price of soda ash [72]. - Fundamental information shows inventory changes [72]. - View suggests range - bound trading with cost support and high - level supply [72]. Glass - Market dynamics show the price of glass [73]. - Fundamental information shows inventory changes [73]. - View suggests decline in the 01 contract and long - term cost support [73].

南华商品指数：所有版块均下跌，贵金属板块领跌 王怡琳 南华商品指数市场数据 | 用于同 的 HD 1日 300 11 200 300 | 年化收益率 | 年化波动率 | 今收盘 | 昨收盘 | 点数 | 日 啊 | Sharpe | 指数名称 | Today Close | Pre. Close | 96 | ARR | An. Vol | Batio | Points | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 综合指数 NHCl | 2528.48 | 2541.86 | -13.38 | -0.53% | -2.02% | 11.60% | -0.17 | 贵金属指数 NHPMI | 1523. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The trading focus of the soybean meal futures lies in whether the 53 bushels per acre yield of US soybeans on the external market will continue to decline, and whether the 12 million tons of Chinese purchases claimed by the US can be reflected in the annual balance sheet. If the inventory remains around 300 million bushels, the annual price of US soybeans will fluctuate around the cost line, and the domestic soybean meal will lack a unilateral driving force. The near - term contracts will strengthen due to seasonal de - stocking, while the far - term contracts will be weak due to Brazilian supply pressure, continuing the positive spread logic [1]. - The rapeseed meal futures will maintain a state of weak supply and demand in the fourth quarter. There are additional negotiation expectations between China and Canada, and with the arrival of Australian rapeseed after November, the subsequent demand growth is limited, and supply is expected to recover. Therefore, the inventory of rapeseed meal at coastal and oil mills remains high, and it is considered weak. Attention can be paid to the registration of new warehouse receipts after the concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts in November [2]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Soybean Meal**: The external market focuses on supply - side yield adjustments and demand - side Chinese purchases. The domestic market has a near - strong and far - weak pattern. Near - term contracts are affected by seasonal de - stocking, and far - term contracts are pressured by Brazilian supply [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: It will have a weak supply - demand situation in Q4. There are negotiation expectations between China and Canada, and Australian rapeseed arrivals will limit demand growth and increase supply expectations [2]. - **Proximal Trading Logic**: Currently, the supply of imported soybeans at ports and oil mills is high, and the oil mill crushing volume has slightly increased. The demand is limited, and the warehouse receipt pressure of soybean and rapeseed meal is about to decline, making the near - term narrative dominant [6]. - **Distal Trading Expectations**: The cost of far - month soybeans is high, and import profits are falling, indicating limited far - month purchases. Sino - US trade relations are easing, and the supply gap is expected to narrow. Rapeseed meal supply may improve, and demand is expected to weaken. Brazilian and Argentine soybean planting is progressing well, and future harvest pressure will affect domestic meal prices [17]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgement**: The market will be in a range - bound state. The M2601 contract will fluctuate between 2800 - 3200 [25]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Unilateral long positions can be reduced; consider a covered call strategy with options; hold the previously sold call options for rapeseed meal 2601; for non - holders, avoid excessive short - chasing after a Monday low - opening, and consider high - selling and low - buying or positive spread strategies [25]. - **Basis, Spread and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: For basis strategies, use accumulated option purchases to reduce basis risk. For spread strategies, reduce positions in M3 - 5 and M1 - 3 spreads. For hedging arbitrage strategies, narrow the spread of soybean and rapeseed meal 2601 at high levels [26]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Suggestions - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range of soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, and that of rapeseed meal is 2250 - 2750 [28]. - **Hedging Strategies**: Traders with high protein inventory can short soybean meal futures; feed mills with low inventory can buy soybean meal futures; oil mills worried about excessive imports can short soybean meal futures [28]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices, daily changes, and percentage changes of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, CBOT soybeans, and the offshore RMB are provided [29]. - **Spreads**: Information on the spreads between different contracts of soybean and rapeseed meal, as well as the basis and spot spreads, is presented [30]. - **Import Costs and Pressing Profits**: The import costs and pressing profits of US, Brazilian soybeans, and Canadian rapeseed are given [31]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The USDA's November report shows a lower US soybean yield and production than previous forecasts. Argentina's soybean planting progress is behind schedule, and the NOPA's October report shows an increase in soybean meal production [33][34]. - **Negative Information**: Brazil's soybean planting progress is fast, and its October exports are higher than last year. The USDA has not resumed the weekly crop growth report due to the government shutdown [35]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: Downstream customers continue to purchase on a need - to - use basis [35]. 2.2 Next Week's Concerns - Monday: USDA export inspection report and domestic weekly inventory data; Tuesday: Brazil's Secex weekly report; Saturday: CFTC agricultural product position report [42] Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The soybean meal futures followed the external market, first falling, then rising, and then falling again. The rapeseed meal futures continued to decline due to previous China - Canada negotiations. Key profitable seats in soybean and rapeseed meal reduced short positions and increased long positions, and the market sentiment for soybean meal turned bullish. The 1 - 5 spreads of both soybean and rapeseed meal weakened. The basis of both soybean and rapeseed meal declined, and the spot spread between soybean and rapeseed meal narrowed [39][40][44]. - **External Market**: After the USDA report, the prices of both domestic and external markets declined. Then, with the news of Sino - US soybean purchases, US soybeans rebounded, and the domestic market followed. The net long positions of CBOT soybeans returned above the zero - axis [56][60]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Production Area Profit Tracking - The pressing profits in US soybean production areas are weakening due to rising costs, while the monthly pressing volume remains high. The pressing profits in Brazilian and Argentine production areas are also weakening, and the pressing profits of Canadian rapeseed are rising due to falling prices [62]. 4.2 Import - Export Pressing Profit Tracking - After Argentina opened the export window in September, the domestic soybean meal price declined, but the decline was limited due to the lack of negative feedback from domestic purchases. Recently, although the market has rebounded, the pressing profits have not improved. The near - term domestic supply pressure and profit support limit the downward space, while the far - term market may decline after the collapse of Brazilian premium prices. The import of rapeseed has shown pressing profits, but subsequent purchases are expected to be cautious due to margin factors [67]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 International Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - For the September new - crop balance sheet, the US soybean production is expected to be between 4.2 - 4.3 billion bushels. The demand for crushing will continue to grow, while the export will be weak. If Sino - US trade resumes, exports may recover. The ending inventory is expected to be moderately tight. The October balance sheet was not released due to the government shutdown, and attention should be paid to the November balance sheet [71]. - Globally, in the 2025/26 soybean balance sheet, the beginning inventory and production are expected to decline, the crushing volume will decrease, the export volume will slightly increase, and the ending inventory will decline [75]. 5.2 Domestic Supply - Side and Deduction - The import of soybeans will gradually decrease in the fourth quarter, and the supply will enter a seasonal de - stocking phase. The import of rapeseed will remain low [77]. 5.3 Domestic Demand - Side and Deduction - The domestic soybean crushing volume will remain high, and the consumption of soybean meal will have limited growth [79]. 5.4 Domestic Inventory - Side and Deduction - The domestic soybean inventory will decline in the fourth quarter and is expected to stabilize and rebound in the first quarter of next year. The soybean meal inventory will also decline and remain at around 600,000 tons in the first quarter of next year [81].

南华期货生猪企业风险管理日报 2025/11/18 戴鸿绪（投资咨询证号：Z0021819） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 生猪价格区间预测 | 主力合约价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | | 11000-13500 | 12.64% | 21.34% | source： wind,南华研究,同花顺 生猪企业风险管理策略建议 | 行为导 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 | 推荐比例 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 向 | | | | 向 | | | 库存管 理 | 产品库存偏高，担心库存有减值风险 | 为防止存栏减值，可以根据存栏情况，做空生猪期货来锁定成品利润 | LH2601 | 卖出 | 10% | | | | 担心库存减值，但期货盘面没有合适价位入场，卖出看涨期权 | LH2601-C-1300 | 卖出 | 10% | | | | | 0 | | | | | | 担心库存减值，又不想放弃后市可能出现猪价大涨的机会，买入虚值 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The trading focus of the current soybean meal futures lies in whether the 53 bushels/acre yield of US soybeans on the external market will continue to decline, and whether the 12 million tons of Chinese purchases announced by the US can be reflected in the annual balance sheet. If the inventory level remains around 300 million bushels, the annual price of US soybeans will continue to fluctuate around the cost line. The domestic soybean meal lacks a clear single - sided driver. In the near - term, it will price in the seasonal de - stocking logic and be stronger, while the far - term will be pressured by Brazilian supply and remain weak, with the long - near positive spread logic continuing [4]. - The rapeseed meal futures will maintain a state of weak supply and demand in the fourth quarter. There is an expectation of additional negotiations between China and Canada, and Australian rapeseed will arrive after November. The subsequent demand increase is limited, and supply is expected to recover. The coastal and oil - mill rapeseed meal inventories remain high, and it is generally regarded as weak. Attention can be paid to the new warehouse receipt registration after the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts in November [4]. 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range of soybean meal is predicted to be 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.9% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 7.1%. The monthly price range of rapeseed meal is 2250 - 2750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.3% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 24.4% [3]. - **Hedging Strategies**: Trade merchants with high protein inventory can short 25% of M2601 soybean meal futures at 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits. Feed mills with low inventory can buy 50% of M2601 soybean meal futures at 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs. Oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans can short 50% of M2601 soybean meal futures at 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions - **Soybean Meal**: The external market focuses on the supply - side yield adjustment and the realization of Chinese purchases in the balance sheet. The domestic market shows a near - strong and far - weak pattern due to seasonal de - stocking in the near - term and Brazilian supply pressure in the far - term [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: It remains in a state of weak supply and demand in the fourth quarter. There are additional negotiation expectations between China and Canada, and Australian rapeseed arrivals will limit demand growth and increase supply expectations. Attention should be paid to warehouse receipt registration after November [4]. 3.3 Market Influencing Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: The Brazilian export premium supports the far - month contract prices. The external market's strength in pricing US soybean purchases and the inability of the domestic market to purchase commercial US soybeans maintain the firmness of the domestic market. The centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts in the near - month eases the pressure [8]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The high inventory of imported soybeans at ports and oil mills in the near - term, and the seasonal decline in soybean meal inventory. The smooth planting in Brazil and the expectation of a bumper harvest in South America suppress the far - month prices. The supply gap in the far - term is repaired under the background of Sino - US negotiations and purchases [6][9]. 3.4 Market Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices, daily changes, and price change rates of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts, as well as CBOT yellow soybeans and the offshore RMB, are provided [10]. - **Price Spreads**: The price spreads between different soybean meal and rapeseed meal contracts, as well as the basis and spot - futures spreads, are presented [11]. - **Import Costs and Profits**: The import costs, daily and weekly changes, and import profits of US Gulf and Brazilian soybeans, as well as the import profits of Canadian rapeseed, are given [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Pay attention to the central bank's policy operations. In the short - term, the market is expected to remain volatile, while in the medium - term, there is still room for an upward trend supported by the fundamentals. Mid - term long positions should be held, and short - term long positions at low levels can be closed at high prices [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Disk Review - On Tuesday, bond futures continued the volatile pattern, with all varieties closing higher. The capital market remained tight, with DR001 around 1.53%. The open - market reverse repurchase was 407.5 billion yuan, with a net investment of 370 million yuan [1] 3.2. Important Information - Trump's chief economic advisor Hassett stated that AI's productivity improvement might lead to a "quiet period" in the job market, and the Fed should be truly "data - driven". The Fed governor Waller, a potential candidate for the Fed chair, supports a rate cut in December, while Fed Vice - Chair Jefferson emphasizes a cautious and slow - paced policy [2] 3.3. Market Analysis - The A - share market continued to weaken with a large adjustment amplitude today, but the bond market benefited little. Affected by the tax period, the capital market remained tight. With a lack of clear signals from monetary policy and light news, the market still lacks a strong driving force [3] 3.4. Trading Data - **Contract Prices and Changes**: TS2512 closed at 102.49, up 0.012 from the previous day; TF2512 at 105.91, up 0.02; T2512 at 108.495, up 0.03; TL2512 at 116.57, up 0.11 [6] - **Contract Positions and Changes**: TS contract positions increased by 925 to 83,687 hands; TF contract positions decreased by 1,178 to 158,973 hands; T contract positions decreased by 164 to 285,339 hands; TL contract positions increased by 563 to 185,923 hands [6] - **Contract Transactions and Changes**: TS main contract transactions increased by 2,388 to 34,723 hands; TF main contract transactions increased by 3,133 to 51,916 hands; T main contract transactions increased by 1,244 to 63,673 hands; TL main contract transactions increased by 1,158 to 89,428 hands [6] - **Basis and Changes**: TS basis (CTD) decreased by 0.0276 to - 0.0256; TF basis (CTD) decreased by 0.0266 to - 0.014; T basis (CTD) decreased by 0.0317 to 0.081; TL basis (CTD) decreased by 0.0414 to 0.0942 [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The ferroalloy market is facing a contradiction between high inventory and weak demand, with production profits gradually declining. The market has low expectations for further production increases. The downstream demand is about to enter the off - season, and the inventory is at a high level. The cost center of ferroalloys may move down due to the impact of coking coal supply guarantee, but the downward space is limited. It is expected that the ferroalloy will fluctuate weakly [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for ferrosilicon is 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.73% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 29.5%. For silicomanganese, the price range is also 5300 - 6000, with a current volatility of 10.99% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 8.9% [3]. 3.2 Ferroalloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: When the finished product inventory is high and there is a concern about price decline, for a long - position in the spot market, it is recommended to short ferroalloy futures (SF2601, SM2601) to lock in profits and make up for production costs. The hedging ratio is 15%, and the suggested entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: When the procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, for a short - position in the spot market, it is recommended to buy ferroalloy futures (SF2601, SM2601) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The hedging ratio is 25%, and the suggested entry range is SF: 5200 - 5300, SM: 5300 - 5400 [3]. 3.3 Market Review and Core Logic - **Market Review**: Yesterday, ferroalloys rebounded slightly due to environmental inspection news, rising with a reduction in positions. Today, they followed the decline of coking coal, and the high - inventory situation remains unchanged. The view of weak fluctuations is maintained [4]. - **Core Logic**: The steel mill profitability rate has continued to decline, falling below 40%. The molten iron output has slightly decreased, and it is expected to continue to decline slightly in the future. The demand for ferroalloys is expected to decline. The inventory of the five major steel products has increased more than seasonally, and the ferroalloy's own inventory is also at a high level. The production profits of ferroalloys are gradually declining, and the market has low expectations for further production increases. The downstream demand is about to enter the off - season, and the inventory of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese enterprises is at the highest level in the past 5 years. The inventory of silicomanganese enterprises has continued to increase, with a month - on - month increase of 10.3%, and that of ferrosilicon enterprises has increased by 3.3% month - on - month. The inventory pressure is large. Ferrosilicon production has started to decrease this week, and silicomanganese production has decreased for multiple consecutive weeks. The downstream demand is gradually weakening, and inventory reduction may still depend on production cuts [4]. 3.4 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: Ferrosilicon production started to decrease this week, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.38%, and silicomanganese continued its production - reduction trend. In October, the magnesium ingot production increased by 21.96% month - on - month [7]. - **Bearish Factors**: The steel peak season was not prosperous, the steel mill profit rate fell below 40%, and the negative feedback pressure was gradually increasing. The coil and plate segment is still in a situation of high inventory and high production. Although the production has decreased month - on - month, it is still at the highest level in the same period in the past 5 years. There is no driving force on the consumption side, and the inventory has increased more than seasonally, reaching the highest level in the same period in the past 5 years. Recently, Thailand has launched an anti - dumping investigation on domestic steel plates. The inventory of silicomanganese enterprises has continued to increase, with a month - on - month increase of 10.3%, and that of ferrosilicon enterprises has increased by 3.3% month - on - month, with large inventory pressure [8][10]. 3.5 Daily Data - **Ferrosilicon Daily Data**: On November 18, 2025, the ferrosilicon basis in Ningxia was 26, the 01 - 05 spread was - 10, etc. The spot prices in different regions remained mostly stable, and the warehouse receipts increased by 1141 week - on - week [8]. - **Silicomanganese Daily Data**: On November 18, 2025, the silicomanganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 270, the 01 - 05 spread was - 66, etc. The spot prices in different regions decreased slightly, and the warehouse receipts increased by 1750 week - on - week [9][11].

棉花产业风险管理日报 2025/11/18 陈嘉宁（投资咨询证号：Z0020097 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 棉花近期价格区间预测 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | | 13300-13800 | 0.0401 | 0.0064 | source： 南华研究,同花顺 棉花风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 库存偏高，担 | 心棉价下跌 | 多 | 为了防止存货叠加损失，可以根据企业的 库存情况，做空郑棉期货来锁定利润，弥 补企业的生产成本 | CF2601 | 卖出 | 50% | 13700-13800 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降低成本，若棉 | CF601C1380 | 卖出 | 75% | 250-300 | | | | | 价上涨还可以锁定现货卖 ...