1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the LPG market is mainly affected by the crude oil end, with geopolitical and supply - demand issues intertwining to influence the market; the fundamentals have not changed much [4]. - The Houthi armed forces and the US - Venezuela issue have pushed up the risk premium of crude oil [5]. - Against the background of increasing supply and decreasing demand for crude oil, there is still downward pressure in the future; the domestic fundamentals remain loose, with few refinery overhauls and a relatively abundant supply of liquefied gas; there is not much change on the demand side; OPEC+ may increase production at the September meeting [9]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 LPG Price and Volatility - The monthly price range prediction for LPG is 4200 - 4500, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 10.91%, and the historical percentage of the current volatility over 3 years is 0.15% [2]. 3.2 LPG Hedging Strategies 3.2.1 Inventory Management - When inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops (long in the spot market), to prevent inventory depreciation losses, companies can short PG2510 futures according to their inventory levels to lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and a recommended entry range of 4400 - 4500; they can also sell the PG2510C4500 call option to collect premiums and reduce costs, and lock in the selling price if the spot price rises, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a recommended entry range of 60 - 80 [2]. 3.2.2 Procurement Management - When the procurement of regular inventory is low and procurement is based on orders (short in the spot market), to prevent the increase in procurement costs due to rising PG prices, companies can buy PG2510 futures at lower prices on the market to lock in procurement costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a recommended entry range of 4200 - 4300; they can also sell the PG2510P4200 put option to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot purchase price if the PG price drops, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a recommended entry range of 20 - 30 [2]. 3.3 Industry Data Aggregation - Various price data including Brent, WTI, MOPJ M1, MOPJ spot, NWE NAP M1, NWE NAP spot, etc., show daily and weekly changes. For example, Brent was at 67.39 on September 3, 2025, down 1.68 from the previous day and up 0.19 from the previous week [8]. - There are also data on spreads, such as FEI - MOPJ M1, NWE C3 - NAP, etc., and their corresponding daily and weekly changes [10]. - Information on monthly spreads like LPG08 - 09, LPG09 - 10, etc., and their daily and weekly changes [10]. - Ratio data including MB/WTI, FEI/Brent, etc., along with their daily and weekly changes [10]. - Data on both盘面 and spot profits, such as盘面import profit - FEI, Asian naphtha cracking profit, etc., and their daily and weekly changes [10]. - Freight data including the Middle East to the Far East, the US to Europe, etc., and their daily and weekly changes [10].

股指日报 股指期货日报 2025年9月4日 王映(Z0016367) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 市场回调下，前期弱势行业展韧性 市场回顾 今日股指放量下降，以沪深300指数为例，收盘下跌2.12%。从资金面来看，两市成交额回升1801.71亿元。 期指方面，各品种均放量下跌。 重要资讯 1、工业和信息化部、市场监督管理总局发布关于印发《电子信息制造业2025-2026年稳增长行动方案》的通 知。 核心观点 今日股市下行幅度放大，基本符合我们昨日所提情绪回落、避险情绪升温思路，行业层面，6月20日以来上涨 幅度相对较小的银行、泛消费行业以及公用事业、交通运输等走势相对具备韧性，TMT继续领跌。今日两市 成交额维持在2.5万亿左右的水平，虽较三万亿高点有所回落，但仍是较为活跃的交易水平，股市三连阴后， 情绪面预计相对谨慎，短期反弹压力较大。不过，从盘面博弈状况来看，空头力量并不强势，表现为股指拉 出长下影线，以沪深300指数为例，20日均线形成支撑。在并没有强势利空的背景之下，交易前期利多定价 回调修正，股市预计在短时间内快速、大幅回调后，回归震荡，不必过于悲观。 策略推荐 股指日报期指市 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The near - term spot supply and demand of propylene are tightening due to the maintenance of some external devices, while the long - term devices will gradually resume production, and new devices from Jilin Petrochemical, Guangxi Petrochemical, and Yulong Petrochemical are to be put into operation. Currently, the 01 contract is still relatively far away, and market participation is low [3]. - Bullish factors include the rising crude oil risk premium caused by the Houthi armed forces and the US - Venezuela issue, providing cost support, and the strong operation of overseas propane prices. In the Shandong market, the maintenance of Zhenhua's 750,000 - ton PDH, Wanhua Penglai's 900,000 - ton PDH, and Jinneng's 900,000 - ton PDH has reduced the overall external supply, and the supply - demand situation is more tense than in August [4]. - Bearish factors include the addition of PP maintenance devices in Jinneng and Yulong this week, which will lead to some propylene external supply and narrow the supply - demand gap. The PP supply is at a high level, while downstream demand is limited, causing some enterprises to stop PP production and release propylene. The price difference between PP powder and propylene has shrunk to 165 yuan/ton, lower than the processing cost. There are rumors that OPEC+ may increase production at the September meeting [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Propylene Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for propylene is 6,250 - 6,600 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 0.0646, and the historical percentage of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 0.0625 [2]. 3.2 Propylene Hedging Strategy 3.2.1 Inventory Management - For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about propylene price decline (long spot exposure), they can short - allocate propylene futures (PL2601) on rallies according to their inventory to lock in profits, with a hedging ratio of 50% and a recommended entry range of 6,500 - 6,600 yuan/ton. They can also sell call options (PL2601C6700) to collect premiums and reduce costs, and lock in the selling price if the spot price rises, with a hedging ratio of 50% and a recommended entry range of 100 - 120 [2]. 3.2.2 Procurement Management - For enterprises with low regular inventory for procurement and hoping to purchase based on orders (short spot exposure), they can buy propylene futures (PL2601) on dips to lock in procurement costs through on - disk procurement, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a recommended entry range of 6,300 - 6,400 yuan/ton. They can also sell put options (PL2601P6000) to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and lock in the spot purchase price if the propylene price drops, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a recommended entry range of 30 - 40 [2]. 3.3 Industrial Data Summary - **Upstream Prices**: On September 3, 2025, Brent crude oil was at $67.39/barrel, down $1.68 from the previous day and up $0.19 from the previous week; WTI crude oil was at $63.77/barrel, down $1.85 from the previous day and down $0.09 from the previous week. Other upstream prices also showed different degrees of changes [6]. - **Mid - stream Prices**: The mid - stream propylene prices in different regions and related price differences are presented. For example, the price in the Shandong market on September 3, 2025, was 6,630 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan from the previous day and up 70 yuan from the previous week [8]. - **Downstream Prices**: The downstream product prices such as polypropylene powder, polypropylene granules, and epoxy propane also had corresponding price changes. For example, the price of polypropylene powder was 6,780 yuan/ton on September 3, 2025, unchanged from the previous day and down 50 yuan from the previous week [8]. - **Profits**: The profits of different production processes and products in the mid - upstream and downstream showed different trends. For example, the main refinery profit was 795.66 yuan/ton, down 30.27 yuan from August 27 [8]. - **Price Spreads**: The price spreads between upstream and downstream products and different contracts are also provided. For example, the spread between PP01 and PL01 was 539 yuan/ton on September 3, 2025, up 1 yuan from the previous day and down 38 yuan from the previous week [8].

Report Information - Report Title: Ferrous Alloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: September 3, 2025 - Author: Chen Mintao (Z0022731) [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Core View - The recent trading logic is the production restriction news of steel mills in Tangshan before the September 3 parade, leading to a decline in the demand expectation for coke and ferrous alloy furnace materials. The ferrous alloy prices have followed the decline of coking coal prices. However, the possibility and space for further decline are limited. There is still support at the bottom, but there is also pressure at the top under the current situation of high operating rates and weak downstream demand. The profit of ferrous alloys has been continuously declining, and there is a possibility of production reduction. The inventory may change from destocking to stockpiling, and there is still pressure at the top. It is more cost - effective to go long on the spread between silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese alloy, and it is advisable to go long on the 01 spread of the two silicons at - 400 [4]. Key Points by Section Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for silicon ferroalloy is 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.45% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 28.0%. The monthly price range forecast for silicon manganese alloy is also 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.08% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 20.9% [3] Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, to prevent inventory depreciation losses, they can short ferrous alloy futures (SF2511, SM2601) according to their inventory situation, with a selling orientation and a hedging ratio of 15%. The recommended entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [3] - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory, to prevent the increase in procurement costs due to the rise of ferrous alloy prices, they can buy ferrous alloy futures (SF2511, SM2601) at the current stage, with a buying orientation and a hedging ratio of 25%. The recommended entry range is SF: 5100 - 5200, SM: 5300 - 5400 [3] Core Contradiction - The price of ferrous alloys has followed the decline of coking coal. Although there is still a possibility of further decline, the space is limited. There is support at the bottom, but pressure at the top under high operating rates and weak downstream demand. The profit has been declining, and there is a possibility of production reduction. The inventory may change from destocking to stockpiling. It is more cost - effective to go long on the spread between silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese alloy, and it is advisable to go long on the 01 spread of the two silicons at - 400 [4] Bullish Factors - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: The demand for silicon ferroalloy in five major steel products is 2.06 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.48%. The silicon ferroalloy warehouse receipts are 9.92 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.13%, and the total inventory is 16.21 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.46% [6] - **Silicon Manganese Alloy**: The government's strict control policy on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the silicon manganese industry. The demand for silicon manganese alloy in five major steel products is 12.67 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.12%. The enterprise inventory is 14.9 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.49%, the warehouse receipts are 33.28 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.05%, and the total inventory is 48.18 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.88% [7] Bearish Factors - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: The supply of ferrous alloys is at a high level in the same period of the past five years, with great supply pressure. The enterprise inventory is 6.29 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.29% [7] - **Silicon Manganese Alloy**: In the long run, the real - estate market is sluggish, and the market doubts the growth of terminal steel demand, resulting in relatively weak demand for silicon manganese alloy. The production is 21.34 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.04%, and the operating rate in China is 47%, a month - on - month increase of 0.63% [7] Daily Data - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: The daily data includes information such as basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse receipts [7] - **Silicon Manganese Alloy**: The daily data includes information such as basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse receipts [8] Term Structure Spread and Seasonal Charts - There are term structure spread charts for silicon ferroalloy, silicon manganese alloy, and coking coal, as well as various seasonal charts for silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese alloy, including market price, basis, and futures spread seasonal charts [9][10][11]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The prices of all monthly contracts of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) futures opened lower and fluctuated. By the close, the prices of all EC contracts declined. The futures prices dropped as expected following the decline in the spot cabin quotes on the European line, especially Maersk's new weekly cabin opening quotes. For the future, it is more likely that EC will continue to fluctuate or decline slightly [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content EC Risk Management Strategy - For those with available cabin space but full shipping capacity or poor booking volume, worried about falling freight rates, it is recommended to short the container shipping index futures to lock in profits. The recommended entry range for selling EC2510 is 1350 - 1450 [1]. - For those hoping to book cabins based on order situations due to increased blank sailings by shipping companies or approaching peak season, it is recommended to buy the container shipping index futures to lock in booking costs. The recommended entry range for buying EC2510 is 1150 - 1250 [1]. Market Information - **Likely Positive Factors**: The US Federal Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that most of the global tariff measures implemented by former President Trump were illegal. MSC plans to adjust the shipping capacity on the Asia - Europe route from the 39th to the 41st week, canceling a total of four voyages. Maersk increased the quotes for some newly added cabins in early September [2]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: MSK's new weekly cabin opening quotes continued to decline, and the quotes of MSC and Hapag - Lloyd for spot cabins on the European line in early September continued to fall [3]. Data Analysis - **EC Basis and Price Spread**: The basis, daily and weekly changes of different EC contracts on September 4, 2025, are provided, along with the closing prices, daily and weekly price changes, and price spreads between different contracts [4]. - **Shipping Quotes**: Maersk's shipping quotes from Shanghai to Rotterdam for different container types and departure dates in September are given, showing some increases and decreases. MSC's quotes for the next two weeks decreased, and Hapag - Lloyd's average quotes for the past three weeks also declined [6]. - **Global Freight Index**: The latest values, previous values, changes, and change rates of multiple global freight indexes, including SCFIS, SCFI, XSI, and FBX, are presented [7]. - **Port Waiting Time**: The waiting times at major global ports on September 3, 2025, compared with the previous day and the same period last year, are provided, including Hong Kong, Shanghai, Yantian, Singapore, Jakarta, Long Beach, and Savannah ports [14]. - **Ship Speed and Waiting Vessels**: The average speeds of different types of container ships on September 3, 2025, compared with the previous day and the same period last year, and the number of container ships waiting at the Suez Canal port anchorage are given [22].

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - **Domestic Economy**: Supportive policies are gradually taking effect. Policies to boost service consumption in September are in focus, and real - estate policies are advancing. However, the impact on the overall market may be limited. The improvement in economic sentiment in July was marginal, and industrial profit repair will take time [2]. - **Overseas Economy**: The US manufacturing PMI shows marginal improvement, indicating a "soft landing." The low JOLTS job openings in July have increased the expectation of interest - rate cuts. Attention should be paid to employment and inflation data this week. The long - term government bond yields in the UK, Germany, and France have reached new highs, and the potential "credit crisis" in the global market should be monitored [2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The key issue of the USD/CNY spot exchange rate is the rhythm control. The spot exchange rate is likely to gradually repair towards a reasonable equilibrium level, and it is less likely to return to the "6 era" in the short term [4]. - **Stock Index**: The external pressure on the A - share market has weakened. With the support of domestic policies and loose liquidity, the downside space of the stock index is expected to be limited [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market's bottom may be further consolidated, but caution is needed regarding the upward space [6]. - **Container Shipping**: The futures price of the container shipping index (European line) is expected to continue to fluctuate or decline slightly [8]. - **Precious Metals**: The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish. Short - term prices are strong, and investors can maintain a strategy of buying on dips [12]. - **Copper**: Copper prices may remain strong in the short term due to tight supply and the expectation of interest - rate cuts in the US [14]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term but face resistance above. Alumina supply is expected to be in surplus, and casting aluminum alloy prices may be supported [16][17][18]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate strongly at the bottom in the short term, and an internal - external reverse arbitrage strategy can be considered [20]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel and stainless - steel prices have corrected recently. The medium - term trend depends on demand recovery, and the impact of Indonesia's riots is limited [21][22]. - **Tin**: Tin prices may rise slightly in the short term due to tight supply [23]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market is in a weak - oscillating phase, and the key is to observe the downstream's actual purchasing demand [24]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is expected to maintain an oscillating trend, and polysilicon is in a wide - range oscillating pattern [27]. - **Lead**: Lead prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, with sufficient support at the bottom [28]. - **Black Metals**: The fundamentals of steel products remain weak, and the price trend is bearish. Iron ore prices are supported after the resumption of steel mills, and the coke and coking coal markets are looking for support downward [32][33][34]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil prices are under pressure due to the possibility of OPEC+ increasing production. The LPG market is affected by overseas factors, and the PTA - PX market is weakening with the overall commodity sentiment and oil prices. Other energy - chemical products also show different trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals [38][40][42][44] Summary by Directory Financial Futures - **Macro**: The US JOLTS job openings data is weak, and the Fed's officials have different views on interest - rate cuts. The global bond market is experiencing a sell - off, and the eurozone's PMI has been slightly revised down [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed higher in the previous trading day. The US job openings in July dropped to a 10 - month low, increasing the expectation of interest - rate cuts [3]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index declined with shrinking volume yesterday. The weak JOLTS data in the US has strengthened the expectation of interest - rate cuts, reducing the external pressure on the A - share market [5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market closed higher yesterday. The decline in the stock market has led to an increase in the bond market's gains at the end of the session [6]. - **Container Shipping**: The futures price of the container shipping index (European line) declined with the drop in the spot price. It is expected to continue to fluctuate or decline slightly [7][8]. Commodities Precious Metals - **Gold & Silver**: The precious metals market continued to rise on Wednesday. The low JOLTS data in the US has increased the expectation of interest - rate cuts. The market is focusing on economic data and events this week. The medium - to long - term trend may be bullish [9][10][11][12]. - **Copper**: The copper price rose and then fell on Wednesday, mainly due to the US economic situation. It may remain strong in the short term due to tight supply and the expectation of interest - rate cuts [13][14]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain** - **Aluminum**: The price may fluctuate strongly in the short term but face resistance above. The supply and demand situation is affected by production capacity and seasonal factors [16]. - **Alumina**: The supply is expected to be in surplus, and the price is under pressure. The impact of environmental protection restrictions is short - term [17]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The price is supported by the tight supply of scrap aluminum and the cancellation of tax - return policies [18]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price opened low and lacked upward momentum. The supply is in surplus, and the demand is stable. The inventory shows an external - strong and internal - weak pattern [19][20]. - **Nickel, Stainless Steel**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel corrected on the day. The market is affected by factors such as the Indonesian benchmark price and the EU's stainless - steel tariff policy [20][21][22]. - **Tin**: The tin price has been rising recently due to tight supply. The production has decreased due to maintenance and reduced imports of tin concentrates [23]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures price of lithium carbonate declined on Wednesday. The downstream replenishment pace has slowed down, and the market is in a weak - oscillating phase [24]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: The industrial silicon futures price is oscillating, and the polysilicon futures price is in a wide - range oscillating pattern. Their prices are affected by supply - demand fundamentals and seasonal factors [25][26][27]. - **Lead**: The lead price opened low and closed high, maintaining a narrow - range oscillation. The supply is weak, and the demand is in a "not - prosperous in the peak season" situation [28]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have reached new lows recently. The supply exceeds the demand, and the inventory is accumulating seasonally. The market is bearish [30][31][32]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price has rebounded, and the term structure is in a positive - spread arbitrage. The resumption of steel mills after the parade has supported the price, but the upside space is limited [33]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal and coke prices are looking for support downward. The supply - demand gap of coke is expected to narrow, and the coking coal inventory structure has deteriorated [34]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: The supply of silicon iron and silicon manganese is loose, and the prices are oscillating at the bottom. The profit has declined, and there is a possibility of production reduction [36]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The crude oil price dropped significantly due to the possible production increase by OPEC+. The uncertainty of OPEC+'s production decision will be an important factor affecting the price next week [38][39][40]. - **LPG**: The LPG price fluctuates with the crude oil price. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand has little change. The market is affected by overseas factors [42]. - **PTA - PX**: The prices of PX and PTA have weakened with the overall commodity sentiment and the decline in the crude oil price. The supply - demand situation is complex, and the profit is under pressure [44][45][46]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: The ethylene glycol price is oscillating at a low level. The supply and demand are in a state of change, and the inventory is expected to decline slightly. The bottle - chip demand is not good [48][49]. - **Methanol**: The methanol market is mainly affected by the high - volume shipments from Iran and the port inventory pressure. It is recommended to hold a small number of long positions and short put options [51][52]. - **PP**: The supply of polypropylene is increasing, and the demand is uncertain. The future trend depends on whether the downstream demand can maintain a high growth rate [54][55]. - **PE**: The polyethylene market is in a pattern of decreasing supply and increasing demand, but the demand recovery is not strong enough to drive the price up significantly. It is expected to oscillate [56][57][58]. - **PVC**: The PVC price has returned to the industrial fundamentals. The supply is relatively stable, the demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating [59][60]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene have stopped falling. The supply and demand of pure benzene are weak, and the supply of styrene will change in different periods. Short - term short - selling is not recommended [61][62][64]. - **Fuel Oil**: The fuel oil market is waiting for the guidance of the OPEC meeting. The supply is expected to increase slowly, and the demand is stable. The price is under pressure from the spot market [65]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt supply is stable, but the demand is affected by rainfall and capital shortage. It is mainly following the cost fluctuation in the short term [67][68]. - **Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber**: The rubber market is in a multi - empty stalemate. The price is affected by factors such as the crude oil price, supply - demand fundamentals, and macro - economic data. It is expected to oscillate widely [69][70][71]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea market is in a weak supply - demand situation. The market is waiting for the Indian tender news. It is recommended to pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [72][73]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: The soda ash inventory has decreased slightly. The market situation is relatively weak [74].

Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report - Date: September 4, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The recent strength of tin prices is mainly due to tight supply. Yunnan Tin plans to shut down for maintenance from August 30 for 45 days. In August 2025, China's refined tin production decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, affected by enterprise maintenance and lower tin concentrate imports in July. In the short term, with a stable macro - environment, tin prices may rise slightly further, with the upper target set at 276,000 yuan per ton [3] Summary by Directory 1. Tin Price Volatility and Risk Management - **Price Volatility**: The latest closing price is 273,120 yuan, the monthly price range forecast is 245,000 - 263,000 yuan, the current volatility is 12.99%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.4% [2] - **Risk Management Suggestions**: - **Inventory Management**: For high finished - product inventory and fear of price drops, sell 75% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 275,000 yuan and sell 25% of the SN2511C275000 call option when volatility is appropriate [2] - **Raw Material Management**: For low raw - material inventory and fear of price increases, buy 50% of the Shanghai Tin main futures contract at around 230,000 yuan and sell 25% of the SN2511P260000 put option when volatility is appropriate [2] 2. Factors Affecting Tin Prices - **Likely Positive Factors**: Sino - US tariff policy easing, the semiconductor sector being in an expansion cycle, and Myanmar's production resumption falling short of expectations [4][5] - **Likely Negative Factors**: Tariff policy reversals, the inflow of Burmese tin ore into China, and the semiconductor sector's expansion slowing down and moving towards a contraction cycle [5] 3. Tin Futures and Spot Market Data - **Futures Data (Daily)**: - Shanghai Tin main contract: 273,120 yuan/ton, unchanged [6] - Shanghai Tin continuous - one contract: 273,120 yuan/ton, unchanged [6] - Shanghai Tin continuous - three contract: 273,260 yuan/ton, unchanged [6] - LME Tin 3M: 34,620 dollars/ton, down 115 dollars (- 0.33%) [6] - Shanghai - London ratio: 7.85, up 0.08 (1.03%) [6] - **Spot Data (Weekly)**: - Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingot: 273,100 yuan/ton, up 1,100 yuan (0.4%) [10] - 1 tin premium: 0 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan (- 100%) [10] - 40% tin concentrate: 261,100 yuan/ton, up 1,100 yuan (0.42%) [10] - 60% tin concentrate: 265,100 yuan/ton, up 1,100 yuan (0.42%) [10] - Other tin - related products also showed varying degrees of price changes [10] 4. Tin Import and Inventory Data - **Import and Processing Data (Daily)**: - Tin import profit and loss: - 20,238.59 yuan/ton, up 143.67 yuan (- 0.7%) [12] - 40% tin ore processing fee: 12,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [12] - 60% tin ore processing fee: 10,050 yuan/ton, unchanged [12] - **Inventory Data (Daily)**: - Shanghai Futures Exchange tin warehouse receipts: 7,407 tons, up 144 tons (1.98%) [14] - LME tin inventory: 2,175 tons, up 20 tons (0.93%) [14]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Copper prices' rise and fall on Wednesday were closely related to the US economy. The unusual simultaneous rise of copper, gold, the US dollar index, and crude oil at night, along with a significant drop in US stocks and a sharp increase in European and American long - term bond yields, led to an over - rise, and the price fell during the daytime. Considering tight supply and the US economic pressure on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, copper prices may remain strong in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 80,110 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 7.39%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 3.3% [2]. Copper Risk Management Suggestions - **Inventory Management**: For high finished - product inventory and fear of price drops, sell 75% of the Shanghai Copper main - contract futures at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the CU2511C82000 call options when volatility is relatively stable [2]. - **Raw Material Management**: For low raw - material inventory and fear of price increases, buy 75% of the Shanghai Copper main - contract futures at around 78,000 yuan/ton [2]. Factors Affecting Copper Prices - **Likely Positive Factors**: Agreement on tariff policies, increased interest - rate cut expectations leading to a lower US dollar index and higher non - ferrous metal valuations, and a rising lower support level [4]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Uncertain tariff policies, reduced global demand due to tariffs, and extremely high COMEX inventory caused by US copper tariff policy adjustments [5]. Copper Futures and Spot Data - **Futures Data**: The latest price of the Shanghai Copper main contract is 80,110 yuan/ton with no daily change; the Shanghai Copper continuous - one contract rose 0.56% to 80,110 yuan/ton; the Shanghai Copper continuous - three contract was at 80,010 yuan/ton with no change; the LME Copper 3M was at 9,974 dollars/ton, down 0.39% [4]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper, Shanghai Wumaotrade, Guangdong Nanchu, and Yangtze Non - ferrous were 80,520 yuan/ton, 80,435 yuan/ton, 80,280 yuan/ton, and 80,580 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 0.45%, 0.41%, 0.39%, and 0.44% [7]. Copper Scrap and Refined Copper Spread - The current含税 refined - scrap spread is 1,762.98 yuan/ton, down 4.81%; the reasonable含税 refined - scrap spread is 1,503.8 yuan/ton, up 0.15% [11]. Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total Shanghai Copper warehouse receipts are 19,471 tons, down 0.15%; the total International Copper warehouse receipts are 5,422 tons, down 3.13% [14]. - **Inventory**: The LME copper inventory is 158,575 tons, down 0.13%; the COMEX copper inventory is 284,400 tons, up 4.52% [16][17]. Copper Import Profit and Processing - The copper import profit is - 53.18 yuan/ton, down 116.83%; the copper concentrate TC is - 40.6 dollars/ton, down 1.62% [18].

1227吨；截止8月29日当周的SGX白银库存周增1.7吨至1283.6吨。 南华金属日报:关注晚间美ADP与ISM服务业PMI 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年9月4日 【行情回顾】 周三贵金属市场延续上涨，美指略有回落，10Y美债收益率回调，短端美债收益率则跟随降息预期增强而持 续走低，欧美股普遍反弹，比特币回升，原油则大幅下跌亦支持美联储降息前景。目前市场焦点在美联储降 息预期、美联储人事调整和独立性问题以及债市风险上，数据方面则聚焦于周五晚美8月非农就业报告。最终 COMEX黄金2512合约收报3619.7美元/盎司，+0.77%，创历史新高；美白银2512合约收报于41.81美元/盎 司，+0.52%。SHFE黄金2510主力合约收814.88元/克，+1.31%；SHFE白银2510合约收9820元/千 克，-0.15%。数据方面，周三晚间公布的美7月JOLTs职位空缺数低于预期，且前值下修，反映就业市场走 软，为9月降息必要性提供数据支持。消息面，美联储理事沃勒表示，本月应启动降息，未来3-6个月可多次 下调，节奏看数据；美联 ...

Report Summary Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core View - The report suggests a band - trading approach. It notes that on September 3, 2025, treasury bond futures rebounded as expected. Given the current situation where the 10 - year treasury bond yield has returned to 1.75% and the bond market lacks catalytic factors, caution should be exercised regarding the further upside potential. It advises against chasing high prices, setting profit - taking when bottom - fishing, and keeping a small long position at low levels [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Content 1. Market Performance - On Wednesday, treasury bond futures opened higher, rose in the morning and then declined, fluctuated in the afternoon, and rose again at the end of the session, with all varieties closing up. Spot bond yields generally declined. There was a net withdrawal of 150.8 billion from the open market, and the funds were loose with DR001 at 1.31% [1]. - The A - share market continued to decline with a large adjustment range on this day. The morning rebound in the stock market reduced the bond market's gains, but the stock market's inability to stop the decline in the afternoon led to an expansion of the bond market's gains at the end of the session. The stock market had a volume - shrinking adjustment, and if it enters a range - bound state in the future, its impact on the bond market will gradually weaken [2]. 2. Contract Data | Contract | 2025 - 09 - 03 Price | 2025 - 09 - 02 Price | Price Change | 2025 - 09 - 03 Position (Lots) | 2025 - 09 - 02 Position (Lots) | Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.44 | 102.41 | 0.03 | 75575 | 74372 | 1203 | | TF2512 | 105.69 | 105.55 | 0.14 | 139553 | 138200 | 1353 | | T2512 | 108.12 | 107.93 | 0.19 | 213046 | 205357 | 7689 | | TL2512 | 117.03 | 116.61 | 0.42 | 142705 | 140312 | 2393 | | TS Basis (CTD) | - 0.0225 | - 0.04 | 0.0175 | TS Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 25604 | 21492 | 4112 | | TF Basis (CTD) | 0.0846 | 0.0256 | 0.059 | TF Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 62433 | 52692 | 9741 | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.4403 | 0.3548 | 0.0855 | T Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 86857 | 60757 | 26100 | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.7408 | 0.5696 | 0.1712 | TL Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 156936 | 116176 | 40760 | [3] 3. Other Information - U.S. technology stocks led the decline in the U.S. stock market, and the 30 - year treasury bond yields of the UK, Germany, and France reached multi - year highs. Gold futures broke through $3600, hitting a record high [2]. - Trump stated that he would request the Supreme Court to make a "quick ruling" on the global tariff case. If he wins, the stock market will rise sharply; otherwise, it will experience a huge shock. Bessent predicted that the Supreme Court would support Trump's tariff policy but was also considering alternative plans [2].