Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The crude oil market maintains a volatile pattern, with short - term multi - and short - factors in balance, but the medium - to long - term supply surplus pressure remains unchanged, and oil prices are in a volatile downward trend. Attention should be paid to OPEC+ policy implementation and the substantial progress of Russia - Ukraine peace talks [1]. - Near - term oil prices are difficult to break out of the volatile range, and it is recommended to play lightly within the range. The long - term trading logic depends on the evolution of the supply - demand pattern. If the Russia - Ukraine conflict eases and US sanctions on Russia loosen, and OPEC+ production policies are relaxed, supply pressure will increase, while the global economic weakness may limit demand growth [3]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The crude oil market shows a volatile pattern. Geopolitical factors such as the Russia - Ukraine peace talks and US sanctions on Russian energy companies support oil prices at the bottom, but the expectation of increased Russian oil exports due to potential sanctions relief and long - term supply surplus concerns suppress oil prices. Asian traders expect Saudi Aramco to lower the official selling price of Arabian Light crude oil to Asia, weakening the support for oil prices [1]. 1.2 Speculative Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: The short - term market is volatile and relatively stable. - **Strategy Suggestions**: For single - side trading, operate within the range, paying attention to the potential pressure around $65/barrel and support around $62/ton for Brent crude oil. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [6]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Tensions in Venezuela with the US, the UK's delay in sanctioning Lukoil, and two oil tankers exploding and catching fire in the Black Sea may support oil prices [7][8]. - **Negative Information**: The Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation lowered the official selling prices of most of its December - loaded crude oil grades [10]. 2.2 Next Week's Focus Events - **Russia - Ukraine Peace Talks**: The progress of the talks will affect market expectations of Russian oil supply. A breakthrough may increase supply surplus concerns, while a deadlock may raise geopolitical risk premiums [11]. - **OPEC+ Ministerial Meeting**: OPEC+ may keep the Q1 2026 oil production unchanged, and the market is worried about supply surplus risks [11]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Volume, Price, and Capital Interpretation - **Trend Analysis**: International oil prices remain stable, continuing the recent volatile pattern and declining for the fourth consecutive month [14]. - **Domestic Market**: The SC2601 contract of the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed at 455.9 yuan/ton last week, up 0.44% week - on - week. The trading volume was 55,800 lots, and the open interest was 73,000 lots [16][17]. - **International Market**: The settlement price of the ICE Brent crude oil futures main contract was $62.38/barrel, up 0.69% week - on - week; the NYMEX WTI crude oil futures main contract settled at $58.48/barrel, up 0.86% week - on - week. The trading volume of the Brent contract was 1.5387 million lots, and the WTI contract had a trading volume of 1.4125 million lots with an open interest of 379,500 lots, an increase of 42,000 lots [18][19]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Crude Oil Market Calendar Spread Tracking - As of November 28, the Brent calendar spread (01 - 03) was $1.23/barrel, the WTI calendar spread (01 - 03) was $0.46/barrel, and the SC calendar spread (01 - 03) was - 5.6 yuan/barrel [28]. 4.2 Crude Oil Regional Spread Tracking - As of November 28, the SC - Brent spread was $0.58/barrel, and the Brent - WTI spread was $4.65/barrel [31]. 4.3 Crude Oil Downstream Valuation Tracking - This week, the crude oil crack spreads in the European market weakened across the board. In North America and the Asia - Pacific region, diesel crack spreads were stronger than gasoline. The crack spreads in the Chinese market strengthened, and refinery profits were divided. The East - West crack spreads weakened [44]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projections 5.1 Supply - Side Tracking - EIA slightly raises the forecasts for global and US crude oil production in 2025 and 2026. In October, global crude oil and related liquid production decreased by 310,000 barrels per day compared to September, while US crude oil production increased by 10,000 barrels per day [77]. 5.2 Demand - Side Tracking - The report provides seasonal data on US refinery crude oil weekly feed and operating rates, as well as Chinese refinery operating rates, reflecting the demand situation in the refining industry [68][70]. 5.3 Inventory - Side Tracking - The report shows seasonal data on US commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) and Cushing crude oil inventories [74]. 5.4 Import - Export Tracking - The report presents seasonal data on US and Russian crude oil export volumes and related shipping data [76]. 5.5 Balance Sheet Tracking - In October, OPEC and Non - OPEC DoC countries' crude oil production decreased compared to September. EIA slightly raises the forecasts for OPEC countries' crude oil production in 2025 and 2026 [77].

聚酯产业风险管理日报 ——宏观情绪偏暖，关注反弹卖权机会 2025/11/28 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 研究助理：周嘉伟（期货从业证号：F03133676） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 聚酯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 乙二醇 | 3650-4100 | 15.73% | 29.5% | | PX | 6300-7100 | 15.41% | 41.5% | | PTA | 4300-4900 | 12.37% | 17.9% | | 瓶片 | 5400-6000 | 11.03% | 31.2% | 1、近期大陆乙二醇装置意外停车较多：广西华谊20w停车，红四方30w临时停车，中化泉州50w因上游装置 问题降负 ，共计涉及产能100w。 source： 南华研究,同花顺 聚酯套保策略表 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall steel products are supported by raw material costs, with profits gradually improving. The market may pre - trade policy expectations, and steel prices are expected to be oscillating and strengthening. The operating range of rebar may be between 3000 - 3300, and that of hot - rolled coils may be between 3200 - 3500 [2][9]. - The supply - demand balance of steel products is marginally improving, but the risk of negative feedback is increasing as the profitability rate of steel enterprises has fallen to 35.06% [2]. - The port inventory of iron ore has resumed its accumulation trend, and its high valuation limits the upside space [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - **Market sentiment**: Overseas macro - sentiment has warmed up, and the probability of interest rate cuts has increased. Domestically, the market anticipates targeted policies in stabilizing the real estate and fiscal areas in December, boosting the bullish sentiment in the steel market [1]. - **Supply - demand situation**: The production of the five major steel products increased slightly week - on - week, while consumption decreased slightly. The inventory is slowly being depleted, and the supply - demand balance is marginally improving. However, hot - rolled coils are in a situation of high inventory and high production, and destocking may rely on production cuts. Plate exports remain high, but domestic demand is weakening [2]. - **Profitability and cost**: The profits of blast furnaces and electric furnaces are marginally improving, but the profitability rate of steel enterprises has continued to decline. The price of iron ore has been strong recently, but with the increase in arrivals, the port inventory has resumed its accumulation trend, and its valuation is relatively high [2]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend judgment**: Oscillating and strengthening. - **Range reference**: The operating range of rebar is expected to be between 3000 - 3300, and that of hot - rolled coils is between 3200 - 3500. - **Spread strategies**: The long - spread strategy for steel products has a high profit - loss ratio, and the strategy of narrowing the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar is recommended [9][11]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price range forecast**: The 01 - contract monthly price range for rebar is 2900 - 3300, with a current volatility of 9.95% and a volatility percentile of 9.1%. For hot - rolled coils, the range is 3100 - 3500, with a current volatility of 7.90% and a volatility percentile of 0.70% [12]. - **Risk management strategies**: Enterprises with high finished - product inventories can short rebar or hot - rolled coil futures to lock in profits. Those with low procurement inventories can buy futures to lock in procurement costs. Additionally, selling call options or put options can be used to reduce costs [12]. 3.2 Important Information and Next - Week Concerns 3.2.1 Important Information - **Positive factors**: The price of iron ore is relatively strong, the supply - demand balance of steel products is marginally improving, the price of coking coal has declined, and the profits of blast furnaces and electric furnaces are gradually improving [19]. - **Negative factors**: The basis of hot - rolled coils is gradually weakening, the steel market is under - performing during the peak season, the profitability rate of steel enterprises has declined significantly, the port inventory of iron ore may resume its accumulation trend, and the hot - rolled coil segment is in a situation of high inventory and high production [20]. 3.2.2 Next - Week Important Events to Monitor - Next Monday: Release of the final November ISM manufacturing PMI and November S&P Global manufacturing PMI in the United States. - Next Wednesday: Release of the November ADP employment figures in the United States [22]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation - **Basis**: The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coils shows certain seasonal characteristics. - **Coil - rebar spread**: The spot coil - rebar spread continues to narrow, and the driving force for the futures coil - rebar spread to widen is weakening, with a possible narrowing trend [27]. - **Term structure**: The term structure of rebar remains in a deep Contango (C) structure, while the near - end term structure of hot - rolled coils may revert from the C structure to the previous B structure [33]. - **Monthly spread structure**: The supply - demand balance of steel products is marginally improving, and the long - spread strategy has a high profit - loss ratio [11]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - The profitability rate of steel mills has declined significantly, falling below 40%, but the profits of blast furnaces and electric furnaces are marginally improving, which may weaken the motivation for the five major steel products to cut production [46]. - The profit ratios of different steel products, such as the ratio of rebar to iron ore and the ratio of rebar to coke, show certain seasonal characteristics [54]. 3.4.2 Export Profit Tracking - The export profit of hot - rolled coils shows seasonal fluctuations and is related to export volume. The difference between overseas and Chinese hot - rolled coil prices also affects export orders [64]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - The production and consumption of the five major steel products have changed week - on - week. Rebar production decreased by 1.88, hot - rolled coil production increased by 3, and the inventory of various steel products has also changed accordingly [90]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - The estimated amount of molten iron and scrap steel shows seasonal characteristics, and the profitability rate of steel enterprises is related to the daily output of molten iron [98]. - The production of rebar and hot - rolled coils is affected by factors such as maintenance and profit, and the planned production of rebar and hot - rolled coils also shows certain trends [101]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - The consumption of different steel products, such as rebar, hot - rolled coils, and cold - rolled coils, shows seasonal characteristics, and the inventory - to - sales ratios of various steel products also vary [113].

南华期货锌产业周报 ——宏观暖风频吹，矿端紧缺兑现 傅小燕 （投资咨询证号：Z0002675） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年11月30日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 本周锌价处于筑底阶段，当前锌市正处于"宏观预期托底，产业供需错配"的关键窗口期。宏观层面， 美联储12月降息预期显著升温，美元指数回落，市场风险偏好提升（Risk-on），为有色板块提供了较强的金 融属性支撑。供给端矛盾已激化至临界点：加工费（TC）的持续崩塌是当前最核心的驱动力，SMM国产TC 已跌至2050元/金属吨的极低水平，冶炼厂陷入深度亏损（约-2000元/吨），导致检修减产规模扩大，12月 产量预期下滑，供应收缩逻辑正在从"预期"走向"现实"。需求端则呈现明显的季节性回落特征，镀锌开 工率下滑至56.54%，北方进入淡季，终端除了出口数据尚可外，地产与基建表现平淡，对锌价上方空间形成 压制。库存端出现典型的"内去外累"分化，LME库存虽增至5万吨以上，但国内社库受供给减量影响持续去 化，七地库存降至14.81万吨。综上所述，尽管消费端缺乏亮点，但矿端紧缺引发的供应缩量已成为主导逻 辑， ...

Report Overview - **Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core Viewpoint**: The current market's main contradiction lies in the cost support for PP brought by the strong propylene price. The PP fundamentals are expected to improve marginally, driving the bottom of the market to rebound. In the short term, the market will rebound from the bottom, but in the medium to long term, pressure still exists [1]. Chapter 1: Core Contradiction and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradiction - The main contradiction in the current market is the cost support for PP from the strong propylene price. The profit of PDH plants has been compressed to a low of less than -500 yuan/ton this year, and there may be marginal plant shutdowns in December. The PP supply is expected to decrease, while the demand is mixed, with some products showing a decline and others providing support. Overall, the PP fundamentals are expected to improve marginally [1]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Near - term Trading Logic**: The production profit of PDH plants has been pressed to a low of less than -500 yuan/ton this year, increasing the expectation of plant shutdowns. The powder plant has shown negative feedback, leading to a rebound in PP. However, the weakening basis may drag down the rebound. Attention should be paid to the PDH plant's operating status and the PP basis change [5]. - **Long - term Trading Expectation**: Although the PP supply pressure is difficult to ease in the short term, the new plant construction in the first half of 2026 is relatively limited, and the macro - economic outlook is optimistic. Therefore, PP is expected to rebound from the bottom in the medium to long term [6]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The predicted price range of polypropylene is 6300 - 6700 yuan, with a current volatility of 10.52% and a historical percentile of 18.7% over three years [10]. - **Hedging Strategy**: For inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high, shorting PP futures and selling call options are recommended. For procurement management, when the inventory is low, buying PP futures and selling put options are recommended [10]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Propylene and propane prices remain strong recently [11]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Pay attention to the release of the December CP price [11]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend and Capital Movement**: On Friday, the market showed an obvious bottom - rebound trend. The position of the 01 contract decreased this week, and the net short position of the top five profitable seats decreased, while the top five profitable seats increased their long positions [19]. - **Basis Structure**: After the market rebounded on Friday, the PP spot price rose weakly, and the basis weakened significantly. As of Friday, the North China basis was -159 yuan/ton, the East China basis was -59 yuan/ton, and the South China basis was -9 yuan/ton [23]. - **Spread Structure**: Due to the relatively optimistic macro - economic expectations and fewer PP plants in the first half of next year, the L1 - 5 spread shows a contango structure [29]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - Due to the continuous weakness of PP, the profit of all production routes is not optimistic. The profit of PDH plants has dropped to a low of less than -500 yuan/ton this year, increasing the expectation of marginal plant shutdowns [32]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection - The subsequent supply - demand pressure is not significant. The key is how PP digests the existing supply. Maintaining supply - demand balance requires high plant maintenance in the fourth quarter, high demand growth, and low imports [36]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Projection - The current PP operating rate is 78.15% (-0.14%). Some plants are expected to restart next week, increasing the supply. However, due to the low profit of PDH plants and the strong propane price, unexpected maintenance may increase, so the supply side is still cautiously optimistic [41]. 5.3 Import - Export and Projection - In October, PP imports were 27.31 tons, a decrease of 1.17 tons from September. Due to the falling domestic price, the import arbitrage window is difficult to open. Exports were 23.51 tons, a decrease of 0.25 tons from the previous month. Due to weak overseas demand, exports are basically stable at 23 - 24 tons [43]. 5.4 Demand - Side and Projection - The current average downstream operating rate is 53.57% (+0.26%). The operating rates of different products vary. The overall PP demand is supported by the good performance of non - woven fabrics, pipes, and modified PP [46].

南华期货锡产业周报 ——宏观宽松预期强化，供应瓶颈再添新扰 傅小燕 （投资咨询证号：Z0002675） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年11月30日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 本周锡价本周沪锡偏强运行，当前锡市正处于"宏观预期转暖+供应端突发扰动"的双轮驱动窗口。宏 观层面： 市场对美联储12月降息的押注已升至84.9%，美元指数阶段性见顶回落，为有色板块提供了金融属 性支撑。同时，关于特朗普政府可能放宽Nvidia H200芯片对华出口限制的传闻，虽面临国家安全派的阻 力，但仍改善了市场对半导体耗锡需求的悲观预期。供给端： 矛盾进一步激化。除了缅甸佤邦曼相矿区 （Man Maw）复产进度因设备和雨季问题显著滞后外，本周马来西亚第二大锡生产商RHT（Rahman Hydraulic Tin）因环保问题被勒令停产三周，预计将持续至12月初，这直接加剧了短期非中矿源的紧张局 面。需求端： 呈现明显的结构性分化。AI算力（H200/B200芯片产业链）和光伏装机带来的增量需求依然强 劲，但难以完全对冲传统消费电子和家电市场的订单萎缩。高企的锡价（突破30万关口）已对下 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The stock index opened with a "V" - shaped reversal, then maintained a narrow - range oscillation until the close. Small and medium - cap stock indexes were relatively strong, and the trading volume of the two markets shrank to about 1.5 trillion yuan. The market is currently in a game between profit - taking pressure on funds and expectations of policy benefits. Due to the dull news, the upper pressure and lower support have both weakened, and the trading sentiment has cooled down. It is expected to maintain an oscillation in the short term, and the logic of valuation repair driven by loose liquidity in the medium and long term remains unchanged. The recommended strategy is to hold positions and wait and see [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Today, except for the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50, all other stock indexes closed up, with small and medium - cap stock indexes being relatively strong. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 123.997 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IH declined with shrinking volume, while other varieties rose with shrinking volume [2]. Important Information - The State Council Information Office released a white paper stating that emerging fields such as outer space, the Internet, and artificial intelligence are new high - grounds for human development, new focal points for strategic security, and new frontiers for global governance. - Regarding the comments of the leader of the Japanese opposition party on Kōichi Hayashi's statement during the party leader's debate, the Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun responded that "not mentioning" and "withdrawing" wrong remarks are two different things, and the Chinese side will never accept Japan's attempt to downplay, prevaricate, and cover up the serious wrong remarks [3]. Stock Index Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday gain/loss (%) | 0.14 | - 0.05 | 0.95 | 0.95 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 9.0267 | 3.8726 | 10.6633 | 17.4822 | | Trading volume change compared to the previous period (10,000 lots) | - 1.0626 | - 0.3771 | - 0.6343 | - 0.8621 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 25.8622 | 8.9179 | 24.868 | 35.9979 | | Open interest change compared to the previous period (10,000 lots) | - 0.5574 | - 0.3106 | - 0.589 | - 0.4064 | [5] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index gain/loss (%) | 0.34 | | Shenzhen Component Index gain/loss (%) | 0.85 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 3.46 | | Trading volume of the two markets (100 million yuan) | 15857.96 | | Trading volume change compared to the previous period (100 million yuan) | - 1239.97 | [6]

Group 1: Report Core Information - The Nanhua Composite Index rose 49.88 points, a 1.99% increase, with silver and crude oil being the most influential varieties. Silver had an 8.96% change in the variety index and a 0.54% contribution, while crude oil had a 1.47% change and a 0.24% contribution [1][2] - The Nanhua Industrial Products Index rose 43.04 points, a 1.25% increase, with crude oil and copper being the most influential. Crude oil had a 0.26% contribution, and copper had a 0.17% contribution [1][2] - The Nanhua Metal Index rose 95.33 points, a 1.49% increase, with copper being the most influential, contributing 0.34% [1][2] - The Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index rose 16.88 points, a 1.1% increase, with crude oil being the most influential, contributing 0.37% [2] - The Nanhua Agricultural Products Index rose 11.38 points, a 1.09% increase, with corn being the most influential, contributing 0.23% [2] Group 2: Weekly Data Overview - The weekly closing, last - week closing, change points, change rates, maximum, minimum, and amplitude of various Nanhua commodity indices are presented in Table 1, including the Composite Index, Precious Metals Index, Industrial Products Index, etc [3] Group 3: Arbitrage Data - The Nanhua commodity index comparison data for different plate combinations such as precious metals index/composite index, industrial products index/composite index are provided in Table 2, including present value, previous value, change, and ranking [9] Group 4: Sector Index Weekly Data - For the Nanhua Industrial Products Index, the top 6 contributing varieties are listed, including crude oil, copper, methanol, etc., along with their closing prices, change rates, and contributions [13] - For the Nanhua Metal Index, the top 3 contributing varieties are listed, including copper, iron ore, etc., with relevant closing prices, change rates, and contributions [13] - For the Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index, the top 3 contributing varieties are listed, including crude oil, methanol, and glass, with corresponding closing prices, change rates, and contributions [13] - For the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index, the top 3 contributing varieties are listed, including corn, cotton, and soybean meal, with relevant closing prices, change rates, and contributions [13] - For the Nanhua Black Index, the top 3 contributing varieties are listed, including rebar, iron ore, and stainless steel, with corresponding closing prices, change rates, and contributions [14] - For the Nanhua Non - ferrous Index, the top 3 contributing varieties are listed, including copper, etc., with relevant closing prices, change rates, and contributions [16] Group 5: Position and Contribution Data - The table shows the weekly average position, month - on - month increase, position ratio, and contribution of each futures variety to the index change rate, including soybean meal, eggs, silver, etc [18]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - Short - term iron ore inventory is not accumulating beyond the seasonal norm, the fundamentals have improved, the continuous price decline of coking coal supports the iron ore price, and combined with the marginal repair of macro - risk preference, the iron ore valuation is being repaired. Currently, there is not much contradiction between the iron ore valuation and fundamentals, and the price may fluctuate at a high level [2] 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategy - **Price Forecast**: The price forecast range is 770 - 820, with the current at - the - money option IV at 16.74% and the historical volatility quantile at 11.3% [2] - **Risk Management Strategy** - **Inventory Management**: For those with spot inventory worried about future price drops, the strategies are to directly short iron ore futures to lock in profits (using I2601, short, 25%, entry range 820 - 830) and sell call options to collect premiums (using I2601 - C - 830, 30%, sell at high prices) [2] - **Procurement Management**: For those planning to purchase in the future and worried about price increases, the strategies are to directly go long on iron ore futures to lock in costs (using I2601, long, 30%, entry range 780 - 790) and sell out - of - the - money put options (using I2601 - P - 780, 40%, sell at high prices) [2] 3.2 Factors Affecting Prices - **Likely Positive Factors** - Low port inventory of deliverable mainstream medium - and high - grade powder ores supports near - month contracts and basis [3] - The significant price drop of coking coal, a major raw material, when steel mill profits are low, provides short - term support for iron ore prices [3] - Steel demand has improved and inventory has decreased [3] - The Fed's dovish stance has led to the resurgence of the December interest - rate cut expectation to over 80% [3] - **Likely Negative Factors** - During the domestic macro - vacuum period, high - frequency economic data is weak but not weak enough to force the introduction of economic stimulus policies [3] - Overall iron ore shipments are relatively high, and there is no shortage of overall spot (but there is a structural shortage) [3] 3.3 Price Data - **Futures Contract Closing Prices**: On November 28, 2025, the closing prices of the 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 799.5, 773, and 748 respectively, with daily changes of 0 and weekly changes of 14, 17, and 17.5 respectively [3] - **Basis**: The 01, 05, and 09 basis were - 0.5, 26, and 51 respectively on November 28, 2025, with daily changes of - 1.5, 1.5, and 1.5 respectively and weekly changes of - 4, - 13, and - 13 respectively [3] - **Spot Prices**: On November 28, 2025, the prices of Rizhao PB powder and Rizhao Carajás fines were 794 and 885 respectively, with daily changes of - 5 and - 5 respectively and weekly changes of 4 and 2 respectively [3] - **Platts Index**: On November 27, 2025, the Platts 58%, 62%, and 65% indexes were 95.4, 107.45, and 119.5 respectively, with daily changes of 0.2, 0.1, and 0.1 respectively and weekly changes of 2.1, 2.7, and 2.75 respectively [4] 3.4 Fundamental Data | Indicator | 2025 - 11 - 21 | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Daily average hot - metal output | 236.28 | - 0.6 | - 3.62 | | 45 - port desilting volume | 329.92 | 2.97 | 17.27 | | Apparent demand for five major steel products | 888 | - 6 | - 28 | | Global shipments | 3278.4 | - 238 | - 110 | | Australia - Brazil shipments | 2597.5 | - 236.1 | - 247 | | 45 - port arrivals | 2817.1 | 548.2 | 788 | | 45 - port inventory | 15054.65 | - 75.06 | 631.06 | | 247 steel - mill inventory | 9001.23 | - 74.78 | - 77.96 | | 247 steel - mill available days | 30.86 | - 0.16 | 0.23 | [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Overall Economic Situation**: Overseas, the US employment data shows significant differentiation, and the Fed officials' recent statements strengthen the expectation of a December interest rate cut. Domestically, the economic fundamentals are cooling marginally, and the market's expectation of policy intensification is rising [2]. - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar is expected to show a "sideways bottoming, slowly declining central tendency" trend. In the short term, the appreciation rhythm may slow down, but the overall appreciation trend remains unchanged [3]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index is expected to have a narrow - range sideways movement in the short term due to weak fundamentals and lack of new positive factors [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The medium - term view is to hold long positions, and new long positions can be gradually established at low prices [5]. - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The container shipping to Europe futures is expected to be sideways and weak in the short term, with geopolitical expectations dominating the market sentiment [7]. - **Precious Metals**: In the medium - to - long term, the price of precious metals will continue to rise. In the short term, pay attention to the December Fed interest rate cut expectation and the 60 - day moving average. Dips are considered opportunities to increase long positions [10]. - **Copper**: The futures price is expected to move upwards if it breaks through 87,000. Downstream enterprises in need can buy futures for hedging [12]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to have a high - level sideways movement; alumina is expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy is expected to have a high - level sideways movement [13]. - **Zinc**: Zinc is expected to have a strong sideways movement in the short term due to stalemate fundamentals [14]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: They are expected to continue their wide - range sideways movement, with limited improvement in fundamentals [15]. - **Tin**: Tin is expected to have a high - level sideways movement. It is not recommended to short in the short term [17]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In the short term, be cautious about chasing high prices near 100,000 yuan/ton. In the medium - to - long term, seize the opportunity to build long positions after dips [19]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is expected to have a sideways movement in the short term and has long - term value for position building at low prices. Polysilicon should pay attention to position risks [21]. - **Lead**: Lead is expected to move sideways between 16,800 - 17,100 yuan/ton [24]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: They are expected to move within a range, with rebar between 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton and hot - rolled coil between 3,100 - 3,400 yuan/ton [26]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore is currently strong, but it is recommended to wait for the basis to repair and then consider shorting at high prices [28]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal has limited downward space and has long - term multi - allocation potential for the far - month contract. For coke, it is not recommended to blindly short [29]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: They are expected to be sideways and weak due to high inventory and weak demand [31]. - **LPG**: The domestic LPG is relatively strong, and the short - term arrival is expected to remain low [32]. - **PTA - PX**: The PX - PTA may decline after the previous speculation funds leave. The TA01 contract has a large pressure above 4,800 yuan, and the processing fee should be operated within the 200 - 290 range [35]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: Maintain the idea of shorting at high prices. Consider shorting or selling call options above 3,900 yuan for the 01 contract [37]. - **PP**: PP is expected to maintain a low - level sideways movement due to weak spot prices and lack of upward drivers [39]. - **PE**: PE is expected to continue its supply - strong and demand - weak situation, and a put - option strategy can be considered [42]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Pay attention to the actual transaction of US - South Korea pure benzene and the domestic large - factory maintenance plan [44]. - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil cracking is expected to decline in the future, while the low - sulfur fuel oil cracking has an upward drive [45][47]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt is expected to move sideways in the short term. Pay attention to the winter storage policy [49]. - **Rubber and 20 - Rubber**: The rubber system is expected to maintain a wide - range sideways movement, with light - colored rubber relatively stronger [51]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: Soda ash is expected to be weak; glass 01 contract will follow the reality, and pay attention to the cold - repair situation; caustic soda has weak supply - demand fundamentals [52][53][54]. - **Pulp and Offset Paper**: They are expected to maintain a sideways or sideways - weak movement in the short term [56]. - **Log**: The log market is expected to be sideways and weak. Consider shorting at high prices and 01 - 03 reverse - spread opportunities [57]. - **Propylene**: Propylene is under the weak pressure of PP, and the domestic supply remains loose [59]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The profit of domestic industrial enterprises is declining marginally. The US employment data is differentiated, and the Fed's December interest rate cut expectation is strengthened [1][2]. - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.0806, down 4 points. The mid - price appreciated to the highest level since October 14, 2024. It is expected to show a "sideways bottoming, slowly declining central tendency" trend [3]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index rose and then fell, with shrinking trading volume. It is expected to have a narrow - range sideways movement in the short term [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The treasury bonds were sideways on Thursday. It is recommended to hold long positions in the medium term and gradually build new long positions at low prices [4][5]. - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The container shipping to Europe futures was narrowly sideways. It is expected to be sideways and weak in the short term, with geopolitical expectations dominating the market sentiment [5][7]. Commodities Non - Ferrous Metals - **Precious Metals**: Platinum and palladium rose and then fell, while gold and silver maintained a sideways movement. The Fed's December interest rate cut expectation is high. It is expected that the price of precious metals will rise in the medium - to - long term [8][10]. - **Copper**: The INE copper price rose sharply. The global copper market is expected to be in short supply in 2026. The futures price is expected to move upwards if it breaks through 87,000 [11][12]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to have a high - level sideways movement; alumina is expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy is expected to have a high - level sideways movement [13][14]. - **Zinc**: Zinc is expected to have a strong sideways movement in the short term due to stalemate fundamentals [14]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: They are expected to continue their wide - range sideways movement, with limited improvement in fundamentals [15][16]. - **Tin**: Tin is expected to have a high - level sideways movement. It is not recommended to short in the short term [17]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures price fell. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing high prices near 100,000 yuan/ton in the short term and seize the opportunity to build long positions after dips in the medium - to - long term [18][19]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is expected to have a sideways movement in the short term and has long - term value for position building at low prices. Polysilicon should pay attention to position risks [19][21]. - **Lead**: Lead is expected to move sideways between 16,800 - 17,100 yuan/ton [24]. Ferrous Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: They are expected to move within a range, with rebar between 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton and hot - rolled coil between 3,100 - 3,400 yuan/ton [25][26]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore is currently strong, but it is recommended to wait for the basis to repair and then consider shorting at high prices [28]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal has limited downward space and has long - term multi - allocation potential for the far - month contract. For coke, it is not recommended to blindly short [29][30]. - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: They are expected to be sideways and weak due to high inventory and weak demand [31]. Energy and Chemicals - **LPG**: The domestic LPG is relatively strong, and the short - term arrival is expected to remain low [32]. - **PTA - PX**: The PX - PTA may decline after the previous speculation funds leave. The TA01 contract has a large pressure above 4,800 yuan, and the processing fee should be operated within the 200 - 290 range [35]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: Maintain the idea of shorting at high prices. Consider shorting or selling call options above 3,900 yuan for the 01 contract [37]. - **PP**: PP is expected to maintain a low - level sideways movement due to weak spot prices and lack of upward drivers [39]. - **PE**: PE is expected to continue its supply - strong and demand - weak situation, and a put - option strategy can be considered [42]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Pay attention to the actual transaction of US - South Korea pure benzene and the domestic large - factory maintenance plan [44]. - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil cracking is expected to decline in the future, while the low - sulfur fuel oil cracking has an upward drive [45][47]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt is expected to move sideways in the short term. Pay attention to the winter storage policy [49]. - **Rubber and 20 - Rubber**: The rubber system is expected to maintain a wide - range sideways movement, with light - colored rubber relatively stronger [51]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: Soda ash is expected to be weak; glass 01 contract will follow the reality, and pay attention to the cold - repair situation; caustic soda has weak supply - demand fundamentals [52][53][54]. - **Pulp and Offset Paper**: They are expected to maintain a sideways or sideways - weak movement in the short term [56]. - **Log**: The log market is expected to be sideways and weak. Consider shorting at high prices and 01 - 03 reverse - spread opportunities [57]. - **Propylene**: Propylene is under the weak pressure of PP, and the domestic supply remains loose [59].