Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Paper Industry Risk Management Daily [1] - Date: November 12, 2025 [1] Group 2: Price Forecast and Risk Management Price Forecast - Paper pulp price range (monthly): 4750 - 5600, current volatility: 9.14%, current volatility historical percentile (3 years): 5.86% [2] - Offset printing paper price range (monthly): 4150 - 4350, current volatility: 8.72%, current volatility historical percentile (3 years): 50.00% [2] Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - For high inventory, sell pulp/offset printing paper futures (SP2601 at 5500 - 5600, OP2601 at 4350 - 4400) and sell call options (SP2601C5300, OP2601C4400) [2] Procurement Management - For low inventory, buy pulp/offset printing paper futures (SP2601 at 5150 - 5250, OP2601 at 4100 - 4150) and sell put options (SP2512P4850, OP2601P4050) [2] Group 3: Core Contradictions and Market Analysis Paper Pulp - Futures and spot prices: Futures show high - level oscillation, spot price is stable [3] - Supply - demand factors: Supply pressure reduces due to Maine pulp mill's temporary shutdown; demand is relatively negative in the short - term but overall demand recovers; port inventory is high, and its support is limited [3] Offset Printing Paper - Futures and spot prices: Spot price is stable after previous increases, futures price oscillates at a relatively high level [3] - Supply - demand factors: Market is in the cost - support stage, paper enterprises issued price - increase letters, but spot demand is weak, and the shutdown events have little impact [3] - Short - term trend: Both pulp and offset printing paper are expected to oscillate with a slightly downward central price [3] Group 4: Strategies Paper Pulp - Futures: Short - term, short at high prices and focus on 12 - 01 backwardation [5] - Options: Temporarily wait and see [5] Offset Printing Paper - Futures: Short - term, short at high prices [5] - Options: Temporarily wait and see [6] Group 5: Market Factors Bullish Factors - Paper enterprises and pulp mills raise quotes [10] - Tariffs on the US remain [10] - US Magnolia pulp mill's temporary shutdown [10] Bearish Factors - Overseas shipping costs may decrease [10] - High - level port inventory is difficult to deplete [10] - Four major paper enterprises issued shutdown announcements [10] Group 6: Price and Inventory Data Price Data - Pulp and offset printing paper futures prices, price differences, and their daily and weekly changes [13] - Pulp and double - offset paper spot prices, regional price differences, and their daily and weekly changes [14] Inventory Data - Pulp inventory in China (weekly) [11] - Pulp inventory warehouse receipts [15] Group 7: Basis Data - Pulp basis daily changes and seasonal data [8][9] - Offset printing paper basis daily changes [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View The stock index oscillated today, with the trading volume of the two markets shrinking again. The dividend index led the rise, and market sentiment was cautious. However, the basis of stock index futures rebounded, and the open interest increased, indicating that the willingness of long - positions to enter the market strengthened, showing significant long - short game characteristics. The sharp drop in US ADP private sector employment hinted at a continued cooling of the US labor market, raising expectations of a Fed rate cut. The potential end of the US government shutdown also boosted market sentiment. In China, on one hand, the continuous high - level oscillation of the index increased the willingness of funds to take profits, creating callback pressure. On the other hand, the central bank's Q3 monetary policy report emphasized strengthening expectation guidance, and policy expectations provided solid support for the index. Therefore, the index is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern in the short term. Attention should be paid to the economic data to be released this week, which may provide new trading clues if it shows improvement [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - The stock index oscillated today, with the broader - market index relatively stronger. The CSI 300 index closed down 0.13%. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 485.52 billion yuan. Among stock index futures, IH rose with increasing volume, while other varieties fell with increasing volume [2]. Important Information - The central bank's Q3 monetary policy report stated that it is natural for the growth rate of financial aggregates to decline in the future, and a reasonable interest - rate ratio should be maintained. It also plans to develop the "science and technology board" of the bond market, use risk - sharing tools for science and technology innovation bonds, and formulate a development plan for financial technology during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, and promote the application of large AI models in the financial field in a steady and orderly manner. - The "small non - farm" ADP private sector employment in October decreased by 45,000, the largest decline in two and a half years [3]. Strategy Recommendation Hold positions and wait and see. The table shows the intraday percentage changes, trading volumes, trading volume changes compared to the previous period, open interests, and open interest changes compared to the previous period of IF, IH, IC, and IM [5]. Spot Market Observation The table shows the percentage changes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, the ratio of rising to falling stocks, the trading volume of the two markets, and the change in trading volume compared to the previous period [6]. Other Data Presentations There are also data presentations on the ratio of margin trading volume to A - share trading volume, cross - variety strength comparisons, premium and discount rates of different stock index futures, and price - earnings ratios of different stock indexes, but specific numerical analyses are not provided in the text [7][8][9]

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Core View - The report suggests paying attention to central bank policy operations. Although the policy has room for further easing, the market is likely to remain volatile until the central bank sends new signals. It is recommended to hold medium - term long positions [1][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - On Wednesday, Treasury bond futures continued to fluctuate. Long - term bonds rose in the morning but fell in the afternoon, with all varieties slightly up. The funding situation eased, with DR001 dropping to 1.42%. There were 195.5 billion yuan in open - market reverse repurchases, resulting in a net injection of 130 billion yuan [1] 2. Important Information - The third - quarter monetary policy implementation report states that a moderately loose monetary policy will be implemented to maintain reasonable growth of financial aggregates and conduct counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments [2] 3. Market Analysis - Today, the funding situation eased, but the bond market remained volatile. The morning rise was partly driven by the decline in the A - share market, but the momentum did not last. The central bank's report indicates a suitable monetary and financial environment, so liquidity is not a concern. However, the importance of maintaining a reasonable interest - rate ratio is emphasized, meaning that the market interest rate outpacing the policy rate and excessive compression of the long - short spread are not desired by regulators [3] 4. Data Table - **Contract Price Changes**: TS2512 rose 0.014 to 102.474, TF2512 rose 0.03 to 105.965, T2512 rose 0.025 to 108.52, and TL2512 rose 0.09 to 116.43 [4] - **Contract Position Changes**: TS contract positions decreased by 157 to 85,109, TF contract positions increased by 1,139 to 167,869, T contract positions increased by 2,700 to 291,371, and TL contract positions decreased by 568 to 183,158 [4] - **Base Spread Changes**: TS base spread (CTD) increased by 0.0058 to - 0.0153, TF base spread (CTD) increased by 0.0057 to - 0.0178, T base spread (CTD) increased by 0.0464 to 0.0666, and TL base spread (CTD) increased by 0.0684 to 0.187 [4] - **Trading Volume Changes**: TS main contract trading volume decreased by 8,335 to 20,087, TF main contract trading volume decreased by 8,173 to 40,159, T main contract trading volume increased by 3,414 to 55,607, and TL main contract trading volume increased by 14,105 to 87,575 [4]

Group 1: Main Views - The content that needs attention in the main body of this monetary policy report is relatively limited, and the report emphasizes internal certainty and focuses more on domestic demand. The probability of an increase in the aggregate policy has increased [1]. - The column content is the focus of this report. Columns 1, 2, and 4 are logically related, aiming to stabilize market sentiment and reduce asset price fluctuations. Multiple perspectives for observing interest - rate comparisons are proposed, continuing the central bank's work direction in recent years [1]. - The stability of the net interest margin (banking system) is a prerequisite for the monetary policy to intensify and benefit the real economy, and the stability of liabilities needs to be considered. After the capital market expectations stabilize, there may be a new round of aggregate policy intensification accompanied by further adjustments to the deposit rates of large - scale banks, and interest rate cuts may occur [2]. - As the spread between the policy rate and the money market stabilizes and the interest - rate corridor compresses, the interest - rate market will gradually find its "anchor" [2]. Group 2: More Positive Tone Macroeconomic Outlook - The summary of the overseas situation in the third - quarter monetary policy report is weaker than that in the second - quarter report. The report points out that "global economic growth momentum is insufficient" in the third quarter, mainly due to the decline in GDP growth rates in the eurozone and the UK, and the decline in exports in the Asia - Pacific region despite the improvement in Japan's GDP. Geopolitical conflicts are emphasized as a potential risk to the stability of the political and financial system [3]. - Domestically, there are some structural improvements in investment, but the overall economic data has shown a weakening trend since the third quarter. The third - quarter report has a marginal change in the description of the aggregate policy, indicating that the foundation for the domestic economic recovery needs to be strengthened [3][4]. Next - Stage Monetary Policy Main Ideas - The monetary policy will continue to maintain a moderately loose environment, with almost no new content in this part. The description of the monetary policy in the third - quarter report has been reduced by a paragraph compared with previous reports, possibly because there is little change in the current monetary policy tone and implementation, and the aggregate policy may be announced after the year - end important meeting [4]. Group 3: Column In - Depth Reading Column 1: Scientific View of Aggregate Financial Indicators - Social financing scale and money supply are more comprehensive and reasonable than bank loans for observing financial aggregates. This column aims to manage expectations, urging the market to look at total financing data and smooth the impact of data on the market [10][11]. - The emphasis on aggregate financial data is reasonable because the economic growth engine has shifted. Advanced manufacturing and other industries are mainly supported by government financing, so focusing only on credit data may lead to a more pessimistic view of the economy [11]. - If credit improves significantly and continuously in the future, it may mean a transformation of the economic engine from structural industries to overall demand recovery. However, the growth of new social financing this year mainly relies on government bond financing, and the comparative advantage will disappear in 2026 [12]. Column 2: The Relationship between Base Money and Money - This column explains the difference between high - powered money and broad money and points out that the expansion of broad money mainly depends on the credit expansion of banks. It supplements Column 1 by emphasizing the importance of aggregate financial data such as money supply [16][17]. Column 4: Maintaining a Reasonable Interest - Rate Comparison Relationship - The column focuses on several aspects of interest - rate comparisons, including the linkage between policy rates and other rates, deposit and loan rates, the comparison effect of bank assets, term spreads, and credit risk [20]. - The stability of the net interest margin is a key factor for policy space. The trend of deposit - rate adjustment continues, and the actions of large - scale banks need to be monitored. Future deposit - rate adjustment analysis should consider the performance of the capital market [21]. - The central bank pays close attention to the shape of the treasury bond yield curve. When the term spread deviates significantly from the central level, the monetary policy may use structural means to guide market correction [22]. - Since the Lujiazui Forum in June 2024, the central bank has taken measures to strengthen the importance of policy rates and the smoothness of the interest - rate transmission mechanism. The spread between the policy rate and the market rate is becoming more stable, and the interest - rate market is gradually finding its "anchor" [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - In the medium - to - long - term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price of precious metals. In the short term, precious metals are strengthening. For London gold, the resistance is at 4150, and the support is between 4000 - 4050. For silver, the support is between 49.5 - 50, and the resistance is at 52.5 [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Tuesday, precious metals remained strong. The potential end of the US government shutdown eases the current market liquidity shortage and supports the Fed's December rate - cut expectation. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $4133.2 per ounce, up 0.27%; US silver 2512 contract closed at $51.075 per ounce, up 1.52%. SHFE gold 2512 main contract closed at 948.88 yuan per gram, up 2.67%; SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 11880 yuan per kilogram, up 3.2% [2] 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectation and Fund Holdings - Interest rate cut expectation slightly rebounded. According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping the interest rate unchanged on December 11 is 32.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 67.6%. For January 29, the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 19.2%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 53.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 27.7%. For March 19, the probability of keeping the rate unchanged is 13.6%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 41.4%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 35.6%. SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 4.3 tons to 1046.36 tons, and iShares Silver ETF holdings remained at 15088.63 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 18.2 tons to 591.9 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 7.9 tons to 822.4 tons as of the week ending November 7 [3] 3.3 This Week's Focus - In terms of data, focus on the US CPI report on Thursday evening. In terms of events, on Wednesday, at 22:20, FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will speak; at 23:00, 2026 FOMC voter and Philadelphia Fed President Paulson will speak on fintech; at 23:45, US Treasury Secretary Baisent will speak. On Friday, at 01:15, 2025 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem will speak on monetary policy; at 01:20, 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Hamark will participate in a fireside chat; at 23:05, 2025 FOMC voter and Kansas City Fed President Schmid will speak on economic outlook and monetary policy. On Saturday, at 03:30, 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan will participate in a fireside chat [4] 3.4 Precious Metals Spot and Futures Price Table - SHFE gold main continuous contract is at 948.88 yuan per gram, up 12.9 yuan or 1.38%. SGX gold TD is at 946.5 yuan per gram, up 13.48 yuan or 1.44%. CME gold main contract is at $4133.2 per ounce, down $23.9 or 0.57%. SHFE silver main continuous contract is at 11880 yuan per kilogram, up 161 yuan or 1.37%. SGX silver TD is at 11865 yuan per kilogram, up 139 yuan or 1.19%. CME silver main contract is at $51.075 per ounce, up $0.67 or 1.33%. SHFE - TD gold is at 2.38 yuan per gram, down 0.58 yuan or 19.59%. SHFE - TD silver is at 15 yuan per kilogram, up 22 yuan or - 275%. CME gold - silver ratio is 80.9241, down 1.5499 or 1.88% [6][7] 3.5 Inventory and Position Table - SHFE gold inventory is 89616 kilograms, unchanged. CME gold inventory is 1168.7184 tons, down 4.7997 tons or 0.41%. SHFE gold position is 131045 lots, down 5612 lots or 4.11%. SPDR gold position is 1046.36 tons, up 4.3 tons or 0.41%. SHFE silver inventory is 591.884 tons, down 18.094 tons or 2.97%. CME silver inventory is 14884.8306 tons, down 17.0023 tons or 0.11%. SGX silver inventory is 822.42 tons, down 7.89 tons or 0.95%. SHFE silver position is 233702 lots, down 9515 lots or 3.91%. SLV silver position is 15088.632696 tons, unchanged [15] 3.6 Stock, Bond, and Commodity Summary - The US dollar index is at 99.4822, down 0.1411 or 0.14%. The US dollar against the Chinese yuan is at 7.12, down 0.0032 or 0.04%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is at 47927.96 points, up 559.33 points or 1.18%. WTI crude oil spot is at $61.04 per barrel, up $0.91 or 1.51%. LmeS copper 03 is at $10840 per ton, down $34.5 or 0.32%. The 10 - year US Treasury yield is at 4.13%, up 0.02 or 0.49%. The 10 - year US real interest rate is at 1.84%, up 0.01 or 0.55%. The 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread is at 0.55%, down 0.01 or 1.79% [21]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The core contradictions affecting the LPG price trend include cost - end crude oil facing supply - surplus pressure and geopolitical disturbances, with prices oscillating between $63 - 65 this week and a slightly lower price center; the CP November contract price showing supply - side pressure; the US propane inventory at a historical high and demand being seasonally weak; and the domestic fundamental situation with a slight contraction in supply and relatively strong chemical demand [2][5]. - There are both negative and positive factors. Negative factors are the continuous losses in the domestic PDH sector and the shrinking Asian cracking profit which may reduce the demand for PG as a cracking substitute. Positive factors are the potential avoidance of a US government shutdown and the supply - decrease and demand - increase in the fundamentals this week, along with a rebound in civil gas prices [5]. Summaries by Catalog LPG Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for LPG is 4000 - 4500, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.77% and a 3 - year historical percentage of 9.53% [1]. LPG Hedging Strategy Inventory Management - When inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, for a long - position in the spot market, it is recommended to short the PG2512 futures at 25% hedging ratio with an entry range of 4400 - 4500 to lock in profits and cover production costs, and sell the PG2512C4400 call option at 25% hedging ratio with an entry range of 60 - 70 to collect premiums and lock in the selling price if the spot price rises [1]. Procurement Management - When the procurement of regular inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, for a short - position in the spot market, it is recommended to buy the PG2512 futures at 25% hedging ratio around 4000 to lock in procurement costs, and sell the PG2512P4000 put option at 25% hedging ratio with an entry range of 50 - 70 to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if the PG price drops [1]. Industry Data Summary - The data shows the prices, spreads, month - spreads, ratios, and profits of various LPG - related products on different dates from November 4 to November 11, 2025, including Brent, WTI, MOPJ, FEI, CP, etc., along with their daily and weekly changes [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views - The core contradictions affecting the propylene trend include the possible repeated submission of "anti-involution" with no actual progress, the susceptibility of spot prices to individual device fluctuations, sufficient supply of the main downstream PP with weak demand, and the low and weak external propane market with continuous losses in PDH profits [2] - There are both positive and negative factors in the propylene market. Positive factors include device overhauls leading to a rebound in spot prices, while negative factors include high supply despite PDH losses and weak downstream PP demand [3][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - The predicted monthly price range for propylene is 5700 - 6200 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.1261 and a 3 - year historical volatility percentage of 0.6133 [1] - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory, it is recommended to short propylene futures (PL2603) at a 50% hedging ratio when the price is between 6000 - 6200 yuan/ton and sell call options (PL2601C6200) at a 25% hedging ratio when the price is between 60 - 80 [1] - For procurement management with low regular inventory, it is recommended to long propylene futures (PL2603) at a 25% hedging ratio when the price is between 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton and sell put options (PL2601P5800) at a 25% hedging ratio when the price is between 60 - 80 [1] Industry Data - On November 11, 2025, Brent crude oil closed at $65.09/barrel, up $1.15 from the previous day and $0.74 from the previous week; WTI crude oil closed at $60.99/barrel, up $0.94 from the previous day and $0.56 from the previous week [6] - The price of propylene in the Shandong region was 5765 yuan/ton on November 11, 2025, unchanged from the previous day and down 70 yuan/ton from the previous week; in the East China region, it was 5875 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from the previous day and unchanged from the previous week [6] - The profit of PDH (using FEI) was - 275.32 yuan/ton on November 11, 2025, down 60.06 yuan/ton from the previous day and up 32.47 yuan/ton from the previous week; the profit of PDH (using CP) was - 216.73 yuan/ton, down 56.42 yuan/ton from the previous day and down 25.62 yuan/ton from the previous week [6] Seasonal Price Charts - There are seasonal price charts for upstream raw materials (such as Brent, WTI, NWE NAP, etc.), mid - stream propylene prices (such as in Shandong, East China, etc.), downstream prices (such as PP, epoxy propane, etc.), and盘面 prices (such as propylene month - spreads, PP - PL spreads, etc.) [8][20][27]

Financial Futures Core View - The US Senate passed a temporary appropriation bill, providing funds for the federal government until January 30, 2026, easing the government shutdown deadlock. If the US government resumes normal operations as expected and the core economic data is weak, the support for the US dollar may weaken, and the USD/CNY spot exchange rate is expected to fluctuate between 7.09 - 7.14 this week [3]. - China's import and export data in October declined, but there's no need to worry excessively as it was affected by short - term factors. The export growth rate in the fourth quarter may decline, but the annual foreign trade is expected to end smoothly [3]. - The bond market is in a short - term shock situation, and it is recommended to hold medium - term long positions [4]. Market Conditions - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1207 at 16:30, down 32 basis points from the previous trading day, and closed at 7.1178 at night. The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was reported at 7.0866, down 10 basis points from the previous trading day [2]. - On Tuesday, the bond futures opened higher,冲高 in the morning, then fell back, and maintained a narrow - range shock in the afternoon. The DR001 rose to 1.51% [4]. Commodities Precious Metals - Gold and silver are running at a high level in the short term. The COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $4133.2/ounce, up 0.27%; the SHFE gold 2512 contract closed at 948.88 yuan/gram, up 2.67%. The market is concerned about the release of US data [5]. - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December is rising. The SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 4.3 tons to 1046.36 tons [6]. Base Metals - Copper: The US government shutdown is expected to end, and the market believes the probability of a December interest rate cut has increased, boosting copper prices. The Comex copper closed at $5.07/pound, up 0.08% [9]. - Aluminum: Funds are the core factor affecting aluminum prices recently. The supply of domestic electrolytic aluminum is stable, and the demand is weak. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, and it is recommended to short at high prices [10][11]. - Zinc: Zinc prices are in a high - level narrow - range shock. The smelting end is short of ore, and the TC in November has dropped significantly. It is expected to be strong in the short term [12]. - Nickel and stainless steel: The demand is weak in the off - season, and the pressure on the fundamentals and the spot market is prominent. The price of nickel ore may be strong in the short term, and the price of nickel iron has been continuously adjusted [13][14]. - Tin: Bulls entered the market at night, and the Shanghai tin broke through upwards. The supply is weaker than the demand, and it is expected to maintain a high - level shock [15][16]. - Lead: The lead price is in a high - level narrow - range shock. The supply is tight, but the import window is open, and it is expected to gradually return to balance [18][20]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: The crude oil market is in a narrow - range shock. The short - term kinetic energy is weak, and the long - term is still under pressure [26][28]. - LPG: The cost has risen, and the domestic LPG market is in a strong pattern. The supply has decreased slightly, and the demand of the PDH end has increased [28][29]. - PTA - PX: Affected by the "anti - involution" rumor, the PTA price has rebounded from a low level. The PX supply is expected to be high in the fourth quarter, and the PTA is in an oversupply situation [30][33]. - MEG - bottle chips: The ethylene glycol is under pressure. The supply has decreased, and the demand is stable. The long - term is still in a weak situation [33][34]. - PP: The PP market is in a bottom - level shock. The supply pressure is large, and the demand has improved slightly during the "Double 11" period [36][37]. - PE: The PE market is in a low - level shock. The supply pressure is large, and the demand growth space is limited [38][40]. - Pure benzene and styrene: The prices of pure benzene and styrene are still falling. The supply of pure benzene is expected to be high in the fourth quarter, and the demand is weak. The supply of styrene has increased, and the de - stocking pressure is large [41][42]. - Rubber and 20 - number rubber: The rubber price is in a pressure - bearing shock and moving up. The downstream demand has certain support, but the inventory pressure is large [43]. - Urea: The export quota has increased, and the short - term price is supported. The industry is expected to maintain a high daily output level in November [44][45]. - Glass, soda ash, and caustic soda: The soda ash is under pressure due to the weakening demand expectation. The glass is in a low - level game, and the caustic soda production is gradually recovering, with increasing market pressure [46][49]. - Pulp and offset paper: The pulp and offset paper futures prices are in a high - level shock. The supply of pulp is expected to decrease in the short term, and the cost of offset paper is expected to rise [49][50]. - Propylene: The propylene price is in a rebound. The supply is still loose, and the demand is affected by the PP market [50][52]. Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The policy may affect the long - term supply. The short - term is still based on the fundamentals, and the price is expected to be supported during the peak season [53]. - Oilseeds: The market is waiting for the USDA report. The import of soybeans is mainly from Brazil, and the supply of domestic soybean meal is high. The rapeseed meal is in a situation of weak supply and demand [53][54]. - Oils: The price of palm oil is expected to gradually recover. The supply of soybean oil is sufficient, and the supply of rapeseed oil is still a concern [55]. - Soybean No.1: The soybean No.1 is in a high - level consolidation [55]. - Corn and starch: The corn and starch prices are rising. The supply of corn is sufficient, but the selling pressure has been released, and the demand is increasing [55][57]. - Cotton: The cotton price is expected to maintain a shock. The new cotton output is high, and the downstream demand is average [57][58]. - Sugar: The sugar price is waiting for the Brazilian production data. The Brazilian sugar export in October increased, and the production in the second half of October is expected to increase [58][59]. - Eggs: The futures price of eggs is falling, and the market expectation is difficult to be falsified [60].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The trading focus of the soybean meal futures is on the export demand of US soybeans under the background of China-US negotiations, with an expected export of 12 million tons to China being gradually priced in. Attention should be paid to whether the ending stocks in the USDA report this week will remain around 300 million bushels, and the subsequent price oscillation range is expected to move up slightly. The domestic soybean meal market is gradually pricing in the de-stocking logic after the implementation of tariffs, with a positive spread logic of near-term strength and far-term weakness. - The rapeseed meal futures will maintain a state of weak supply and demand in the fourth quarter. After China's decision to resume group tours to Canada, there is an additional expectation of negotiations, and considering the arrival of Australian rapeseed after November, the subsequent demand growth is expected to be limited, and the supply is expected to recover. The inventory of rapeseed meal at coastal areas and oil mills remains high, limiting the upside potential for price rebounds. Attention can be paid to the registration of new warehouse receipts after the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts in November [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - **Soybean Meal**: The trading focus is on the export demand of US soybeans and the de-stocking logic after tariff implementation. The external market is pricing in the expected export of 12 million tons of US soybeans to China, and attention is on the USDA report's ending stocks. The domestic market is pricing in the de-stocking logic, with a positive spread logic of near-term strength and far-term weakness [2]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: It will maintain a state of weak supply and demand in the fourth quarter. The potential for demand growth is limited, and supply is expected to recover. Attention can be paid to the registration of new warehouse receipts after the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts in November [2]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: The market is expected to oscillate within a range. The oscillation range for M2601 is 2800 - 3200, and it is difficult to break through the upper and lower bounds. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Unilateral long positions can be reduced or liquidated; a covered call strategy can be considered in combination with options, selling a 3300 call option as a covered call for M2601, and holding existing covered call positions; sell a 2600 call option for rapeseed meal 2601 [16]. 3.1.3 Basis, Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations - **Basis Strategy**: The current basis can be considered in combination with the oscillation range, using accumulating options to reduce basis risk. The near-term basis is expected to strengthen. - **Spread Strategy**: Positions in M3 - 5 and M1 - 3 spreads can be reduced. - **Hedging Arbitrage Strategy**: Short the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal 2601 when the spread is high (650 - 700) [17]. 3.1.4 Industry Customer Operation Suggestions - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current volatility of 9.8% and a historical percentile of 6.8% over three years. The price range for rapeseed meal is 2250 - 2750, with a current volatility of 17.6% and a historical percentile of 32.4% over three years. - **Hedging Strategy**: Traders with high protein inventory can short soybean meal futures to lock in profits and cover production costs. Feed mills with low inventory can buy soybean meal futures to lock in procurement costs [19]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Chicago soybean futures need a catalyst to rise further. US agricultural exporters are optimistic about the resumption of normal trade between China and the US. As of November 6, 61% of the 2025/26 Brazilian soybean crop had been sown, up from 47% a week ago but below last year's 67%. The USDA will release its November supply and demand report on November 14 [24]. - **Negative Information**: Argentina's soybean sowing has started, but as of November 5, only 4.4% of the expected area had been sown, nearly 4 percentage points behind last year. Brazil's soybean exports in October were significantly higher than last year. Argentina's agricultural areas have experienced above - average rainfall, which may offset the risk of reduced rainfall caused by La Nina [25]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Monday: USDA export inspection report and domestic weekly inventory data. - Tuesday: Brazil Secex weekly report. - Thursday: USDA export sales report and Conab Brazil grain production survey. - Saturday: CFTC agricultural positions report and USDA monthly supply and demand report. Special attention should be paid to the USDA supply and demand report released at 1 am Beijing time on November 15 [29]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The soybean meal futures followed the increase in external market costs this week, with long - positions adding and the price rebounding. The rapeseed meal futures adjusted this week after a significant rebound following previous China - Canada negotiations. - **Capital Flows**: In the soybean meal and rapeseed meal markets, foreign institutional short - positions were closed and long - positions were added, while institutional investors reduced long - positions and added short - positions, indicating limited upside potential for the rebound. The soybean meal option PCR indicator shows that the market's bullish sentiment has returned. - **Spread Structure**: The soybean and rapeseed meal futures spreads generally show a B - structure in the first half of the year and a C - structure in the second half, mainly related to seasonal supply patterns. This week, the M1 - 5 spread first rose and then fell, related to the rebound of M01, and the RM1 - 5 spread weakened due to the decline of RM01. - **Basis Structure**: The soybean meal basis declined this week due to the increase in the futures price, with the spot price rising less than the futures. The rapeseed meal basis also declined for the same reason. The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal narrowed, mainly due to the larger decline in rapeseed meal prices [30][31][34][40]. 3.3.2 External Market - **External Market Trends**: The external and domestic markets rebounded after a correction. After the expectation of China - US negotiations and news of soybean purchases, US soybean prices rebounded significantly, and the domestic market followed the cost increase. - **Capital Positions**: The net managed positions in CBOT soybeans have returned above the zero line, indicating a short - term return of long - position funds [45][50]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Production Area Profit Tracking - In the soybean production areas, the crushing profit in the US has weakened due to the decline in soybean product prices, while the monthly crushing volume has remained at a high level for the year. The crushing profits in South American production areas (Brazil and Argentina) have also weakened. The domestic crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed has rebounded due to the decline in rapeseed prices [52]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Crushing Profit Tracking - China mainly imports raw materials for domestic crushing, with a relatively small volume of direct imports of meal. The crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans has declined recently due to the increase in import costs after the rebound of the US market, but it is still better than the profit under the current 13% tariff on US soybeans. China will continue to mainly import Brazilian soybeans. The available export volume of Brazilian soybeans is limited, and domestic soybean crushing is expected to decline seasonally. Although rapeseed imports offer crushing profits, due to import margin factors, subsequent ship bookings are expected to remain cautious [57]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Projections 3.5.1 International Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projections - For the September new - crop balance sheet, in terms of production, after a significant downward revision of the planted area in August, the area is expected to marginally increase, and after the yield was adjusted to the highest level in history, it is expected to marginally decline in subsequent months. The total production is expected to be between 4.2 - 4.3 billion bushels. In terms of demand, the crushing volume will continue to grow due to domestic biodiesel policies, while exports will remain weak due to China - US trade relations. If China - US trade resumes, exports are expected to recover to above - normal levels. The ending stocks are expected to remain moderately tight. The October balance sheet was not released due to the US government shutdown. Attention should be paid to the balance sheet released by the government in November [61]. 3.5.2 Domestic Supply and Projections - Considering the opening of US soybean imports, domestic soybean imports are expected to decline in the fourth quarter due to the lack of effective import profit, but will start to recover in the first quarter of next year. Rapeseed imports will continue to remain at a low level [63]. 3.5.3 Domestic Demand and Projections - Domestic soybean inventory carried over from the third quarter, combined with fourth - quarter arrivals, is expected to keep the crushing volume at a high level. After high - level pre - stocking of domestic soybean meal, subsequent consumption is unlikely to increase significantly [66]. 3.5.4 Domestic Inventory and Projections - Domestic soybean inventory is at a seasonal high but will decline in the fourth quarter as soybean imports decrease, and is expected to stabilize and recover in the first quarter of next year. The raw material inventory of domestic soybean meal will also decrease, and the crushing volume will decline. The soybean meal inventory is expected to remain at around 600,000 tons in the first quarter of next year [68].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View - The report suggests paying attention to central bank policy operations, and recommends holding medium - term long positions [1][2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Content Market Performance - On Tuesday, bond futures opened higher, rose in the morning, then declined, and maintained a narrow - range oscillation in the afternoon. Only TS slightly declined, while the rest slightly rose [1]. - The money market remained tight, with DR001 rising to 1.51%. The open - market reverse repurchase was 403.8 billion yuan, with a net injection of 286.3 billion yuan [1]. Important News - The State Council General Office issued "Several Measures to Further Promote Private Investment". - The National Development and Reform Commission held a symposium for private enterprises, stating that it would create better development conditions for business entities [2]. Market Judgment - Today's news was light. The A - share market closed lower, and the bond market did not benefit significantly. - The money market remained tight. Despite increased open - market injections, money market rates continued to rise. The short - end yields of cash bonds rose slightly, while the medium - and long - end were less affected. - The market is not worried about liquidity but lacks trading hotspots. It is difficult to change the oscillation pattern in the short term. Pay attention to monetary and credit data tomorrow [2]. Data Comparison | Contract | 2025 - 11 - 11 Price | 2025 - 11 - 10 Price | Today's Change | 2025 - 11 - 11 Position (Hand) | 2025 - 11 - 10 Position (Hand) | Today's Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.46 | 102.466 | - 0.006 | 85266 | 85232 | 34 | | TF2512 | 105.935 | 105.93 | 0.005 | 166730 | 172702 | - 5972 | | T2512 | 108.495 | 108.485 | 0.01 | 288671 | 291294 | - 2623 | | TL2512 | 116.34 | 116.3 | 0.04 | 183726 | 184847 | - 1121 | | TS Basis (CTD) | - 0.0211 | - 0.0267 | 0.0056 | TS Main Transaction (Hand) | 28422 | 24929 | 3493 | | TF Basis (CTD) | - 0.0235 | - 0.025 | 0.0015 | TF Main Transaction (Hand) | 48332 | 49109 | - 777 | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.0202 | 0.0205 | - 0.0003 | T Main Transaction (Hand) | 52193 | 58830 | - 6637 | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.1186 | 0.1987 | - 0.0801 | TL Main Transaction (Hand) | 73470 | 96097 | - 22627 | [5]