Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an investment rating for the cotton and cotton yarn industry. Core Viewpoints - New cotton is entering the concentrated boll - opening stage in Xinjiang, with the expected picking time earlier than last year. Attention should be paid to rainfall in September. Continuous rainy days may affect cotton quality and harvest progress. Currently, the weather forecast shows a possible temperature drop in early September in Xinjiang and precipitation in northern Xinjiang in the first ten - day period, which may be unfavorable for boll - opening. [5] - The National Development and Reform Commission issued an additional 200,000 - ton tariff - rate quota for cotton imports under processing trade to supplement market supply before new cotton is on the market, which is in line with market expectations. The quota is issued based on import contracts, and the quota certificate is valid for 2 months after issuance, having a limited impact on the market. Domestic inventory remains tight before new cotton arrives. [5] - With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" season, downstream finished - product inventories are further reduced, but profits have not significantly recovered. Downstream confidence is insufficient, and orders are still lacking. [5] - From August 27, the US will impose an additional 25% tariff on India. In response, India has extended the exemption of cotton import tariffs from September 30 to December 31. From January to June this year, the US imported about 276,400 tons of cotton products from India, accounting for about 19% of its total imports. Under the significant tariff increase, India's exports may face challenges, and future orders may shift. [5] - The low - inventory situation before new cotton is on the market still supports cotton prices. The strategy is to go long on dips, and attention should be paid to the peak sales season of downstream products and the time when new cotton comes onto the market. [6] Summary of Different Regions Domestic Market Supply - As of August 21, the national new cotton sales rate was 98.1%, 5.3 percentage points higher than the same period last year and 7.9 percentage points higher than the average of the past four years. [1] Import - In July, China's cotton import volume was 50,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 150,000 tons. The cotton yarn import volume was 110,000 tons, unchanged from the previous month and a year - on - year decrease of 20,000 tons. The cotton cloth import volume was 3,981.43 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.16% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.57%. [1] Demand - In July, domestic retail sales of textiles and clothing were 96.1 billion yuan, a month - on - month decrease of 24.63% and a year - on - year increase of 1.80%. The export value of textiles and clothing in July was 26.766 billion US dollars, a month - on - month decrease of 2.01% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.06%. [1] Inventory - As of August 15, the total industrial and commercial cotton inventory in China was 2.7444 million tons, a decrease of 343,800 tons from the end of July. Among them, commercial inventory was 1.8202 million tons, a decrease of 369,600 tons from the end of July, and industrial inventory was 924,200 tons, an increase of 25,800 tons from the end of July. [1] International Market US Market - **Supply**: As of August 24, the boll - setting rate of cotton in the US was 81%, 7 percentage points behind the same period last year and 6 percentage points behind the five - year average. The boll - opening rate was 20%, 4 percentage points behind the same period last year and 2 percentage points behind the five - year average. The overall good - quality rate of cotton plants was 54%, a 1 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month and a 14 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year. [2] - **Demand**: From August 15 - 21, the net signing volume of US 2025/2026 - season upland cotton was 40,665 tons, a significant month - on - month increase of 70%. The shipment volume of upland cotton was 25,560 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9%. The net signing volume of Pima cotton was 885 tons, and the shipment volume of Pima cotton was 3,175 tons. There were no signings for the 2026/2027 - season upland cotton and Pima cotton this week. [2] Southeast Asian Market - **Supply**: As of August 25, the sown area of new - season cotton in India reached 10.85 million hectares, a year - on - year decrease of about 2.6%. [2] - **Demand**: In July, Vietnam's textile and clothing export value was 3.911 billion US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 8.7% and a year - on - year increase of 5.3%. In June, Bangladesh's clothing export value was 2.788 billion US dollars, a month - on - month decrease of 28.87% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.31%. In July, India's clothing export value was 1.34 billion US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 2.2% and a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. In June, Pakistan's textile and clothing export value was 1.522 billion US dollars, a month - on - month decrease of 0.60% and a year - on - year increase of 7.59%. [2] Futures Market - **Futures Price Changes**: The closing price of Zhengzhou Cotton 01 was 14,240 yuan, with a weekly increase of 210 yuan and a rise rate of 1.5%. The closing price of Zhengzhou Cotton 05 was 14,200 yuan, with a weekly increase of 210 yuan and a rise rate of 1.5%. The closing price of Zhengzhou Cotton 09 was 13,790 yuan, with a weekly increase of 30 yuan and a rise rate of 0.22%. [19][23] - **Spot Price Changes**: The price of CC Index 3128B was 15,328 yuan, with an increase of 85 yuan and a rise rate of 0.56%. The price of CC Index 2227B was 13,412 yuan, with an increase of 71 yuan and a rise rate of 0.53%. The price of CC Index 2129B was 15,603 yuan, with an increase of 75 yuan and a rise rate of 0.48%. [23] - **Spread Changes**: The CF1 - 5 spread was 40 yuan, with no change. The CF5 - 9 spread was 410 yuan, an increase of 180 yuan. The CF9 - 1 spread was - 450 yuan, a decrease of 180 yuan. [23] - **Import Price Changes**: The price of FC Index M was 13,492 yuan, a decrease of 14 yuan and a decline rate of 0.1%. The price of FCY Index C32s was 21,245 yuan, an increase of 13 yuan and a rise rate of 0.06%. [23] - **Cotton Yarn Price Changes**: The closing price of cotton yarn futures was 20,140 yuan, with a weekly increase of 80 yuan and a rise rate of 0.4%. The spot price of cotton yarn was 20,780 yuan, with an increase of 60 yuan and a rise rate of 0.29%. [23]

Group 1: Report's Core Viewpoints - The core contradiction of the current spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB is the rhythm control in the time dimension, not the direction choice. The trend of reducing the depreciation pressure of the RMB against the US dollar is certain, and the key variables are the specific timing of the appreciation start and the speed control during the process [2][31][34] - In the short - term, the RMB appreciation benefits from policy guidance and the A - share dividends brought by market sentiment repair. The continuous upward adjustment of the RMB central parity rate has significantly increased market trading activity, laying a kinetic energy foundation for the exchange rate to break through the previous narrow - range oscillation range [2][31] - In the short - term, the probability of the RMB exchange rate directly returning to the "6 era" is low. It is more likely to be in the process of gradually repairing to the reasonable equilibrium center, as the current appreciation depends more on policy guidance and short - term market sentiment support, and there is also policy - level rhythm control [3][31] - The current exchange rate market shows a differentiated feature of "increased volatility at the spot end and strengthened trend at the swap end". The spot exchange rate fluctuates widely under the influence of sentiment and short - term funds, while the swap end maintains a clear trend driven by interest rate parity repair and changes in the US - China interest rate spread [3][32] - From a policy perspective, the central bank may guide the exchange rate to return through a gradual "small - step and fast - run" operation. Before the exchange rate breaks through the 7.10 mark, the central bank may moderately slow down the upward adjustment speed of the central parity rate; if it breaks through 7.10 smoothly, the central bank may gradually increase the intervention [4][33] - In the medium - term, for the spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB to achieve a trend - strengthening (including having the basis to return to the "6 era"), two key conditions are required: the US dollar index enters a clear downward channel, and the domestic economic fundamentals show substantial positive changes [7][34] Group 2: Driving Forces of RMB Appreciation - The Fed's monetary policy stance has shifted from hawkish to dovish, especially the loose signal released by Powell at the Jackson Hole meeting, creating a favorable external environment for the RMB [10] - Domestic exchange - rate stabilization policies have taken effect, and counter - cyclical adjustment tools have effectively curbed the RMB depreciation expectation and promoted the market's expectation of the spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB to gradually tend to balance [10] - The recovery of the A - share market has driven up risk appetite and further stimulated the RMB's catch - up demand [10] Group 3: Role of Policy and Market in Exchange Rate Movement - Policy has played an important role in the process of the spot exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB breaking below 7.15. The central parity rate has continuously released stable signals to guide market expectations. At the same time, market forces are also gradually strengthening, as evidenced by the re - emergence of the stock - exchange linkage effect [12] Group 4: Impact of Resident Deposit Movement - Resident deposit "movement" refers to the process of residents shifting a large amount of savings from the banking system to non - bank financial investment fields. It is mainly driven by income and expectations, and has multiple impacts on the financial market and economic structure [21] - Recently, the "migration" of resident deposits to non - bank financial institutions has provided continuous incremental funds for the stock market, helping to raise the reasonable valuation center of the A - share market and laying a solid foundation for the index - level market [22] - The "household deposit/total market value" chart has three core defects and cannot be used as direct evidence of resident deposit "movement". Although there is a lack of real - time data verification, potential capital inflows can provide marginal and phased support for the RMB exchange rate, but its sustainability and actual impact scale need to be rationally evaluated [27][30]

集装箱运输市场日报 —— SCFI欧线降幅不减，短期震荡偏弱格局延续 2025/8/29 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 俞俊臣 投资咨询证号：Z0021065 EC风险管理策略建议 1. ONE9月上旬欧线报价继续下调。 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 舱位管理 已入手舱位，但运力偏饱满，或订舱货量不佳，旺季不 | 旺，担心运价下跌 | 多 | 为防止损失，可根据企业舱位，做空集运指数期货来 锁定利润 | EC2510 | 卖出 1350~1450 | | 成本管理 船司空班力度加大，或即将进入市场旺季，希望根据订单 | 情况进行订舱 | 空 | 为防止运价上涨而增加运输成本，可以在当前买入集 运指数期货，以提前确定订舱成本 | EC2510 | 买入 1150~1250 | source： 南华期货 【核心矛盾】 今日集运指数（欧线）期货各月合约价格震荡略偏下行。截至收盘，EC各月合约价格均有所回落。从交 易所排名前20大机构持仓增减去看， ...

国债期货日报 2025年8月29日 股债相关性降低 观点：转入震荡 南华研究院 徐晨曦（Z0001908） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 盘面点评： 周五期债全线收涨，长端与超长品种日内窄幅波动，中短端品种日内震荡向上，表现稍强。现券收益率全线 下行。公开市场净回笼4783亿，主因今日有9000亿买断式逆回购到期，但此前已超额续作。资金面宽松， DR001略升至1.33%。 日内消息： 1.中共中央、国务院发布《关于推动城市高质量发展的意见》：转变城市发展理念，更加注重以人为本；转变 城市发展方式，更加注重集约高效；转变城市发展动力，更加注重特色发展；转变城市工作重心，更加注重 治理投入；转变城市工作方法，更加注重统筹协调。 2.发改委：发展"人工智能+"坚决避免无序竞争和一拥而上，未来1-2年是人工智能落地的关键窗口期。 行情研判： 今日A股高位震荡，日内股债相关性降低。若下周股市不出现加速上涨行情，债市有望小幅反弹或转入震荡， 暂时对向上空间保持谨慎。周末将公布9月PMI数据，市场对制造业景气度预期不高，关注数据是否延续下滑 态势。操作思路上以小波段为主，空仓者逢低做多，反弹有利即可出 ...

主要单品种指数收益率VS波动率 in | "" * 米 采 用 星 * * 后 音 出 出 英 超 出 主要单品种指数当日持仓额变化比例 w ** 各品种当日涨跌幅 对指数涨跌幅的贡献程度 葡萄盆生生生生生生生生生 葡萄酒堂 3 # 网易 3 = 网易出品 = 企属指数 品种 t # and Base Bron 南华商品指数：有色板块领涨，黑色板块领跌 王怡琳 2025-08-29 16:42:01 摘要：依照相邻交易日的收盘价计算，今日南华综合指数下跌-0.05%。板块指数中，涨幅最大的板块是南华有色金 属指数，上涨0.26%，涨幅最小的板块是南华农产品指数，涨幅为0.05%，跌幅最大的板块是南华黑色指数，跌幅 为-1.04%，跌幅最小的板块是南华工业品指数，跌幅为-0.18%。 主题指数中，涨幅最大的主题指数是经济作物指 数，上涨0.5%，涨幅最小的主题指数是能源指数，涨幅为0.06%，跌幅最大的主题指数是建材指数，跌幅 为-0.92%，跌幅最小的主题指数是油脂油料指数，跌幅为-0.02%。 商品期货单品种指数 –10.81% –22.30% 純碱 焦炭 南华综合指数和板块指数历史走势图（归一化） 용 홈 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the Nanhua Composite Index dropped 3.82 points, a decline of -0.15%. The most influential varieties were crude oil and palm oil, with the crude oil index down -1.65% and contributing -0.27%, and the palm oil index down -2.88% and contributing -0.13% [1][2]. - The Nanhua Industrial Products Index fell 16.12 points, a -0.44% decline. The most influential varieties were crude oil and coke, with the crude oil index contributing -0.29% and the coke index contributing -0.12% [1][2]. - The Nanhua Metal Index remained unchanged, with iron ore being the most influential variety, contributing 0.38% [1][2]. - The Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index decreased 18.6 points, a -1.11% decline. Crude oil was the most influential variety, contributing -0.41% [2]. - The Nanhua Agricultural Products Index dropped 10.61 points, a -0.96% decline. Palm oil was the most influential variety, contributing -0.38% [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Data Overview | Index Name | This Week's Closing | Last Week's Closing | Change in Points | Change Rate | This Week's Maximum | This Week's Minimum | Amplitude | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Composite Index NHCI | 2521.31 | 2525.13 | -3.82 | -0.15% | 2544.65 | 2517.10 | 27.54 | | Precious Metals Index NHPMI | 1273.01 | 1250.91 | 22.10 | 1.77% | 1273.01 | 1250.91 | 22.10 | | Industrial Products Index NHII | 3614.83 | 3630.95 | -16.12 | -0.44% | 3665.33 | 3611.26 | 54.08 | | Metal Index NHMI | 6394.54 | 6365.05 | 29.48 | 0.46% | 6436.44 | 6365.05 | 71.39 | | Energy and Chemical Index NHECI | 1664.76 | 1683.37 | -18.60 | -1.11% | 1696.83 | 1664.76 | 32.07 | | Non-ferrous Metals Index NHNFI | 1700.10 | 1691.68 | 8.42 | 0.50% | 1708.13 | 1691.68 | 16.46 | | Black Index NHFI | 2533.25 | 2535.84 | -2.59 | -0.10% | 2579.12 | 2533.25 | 45.87 | | Agricultural Products Index NHAI | 1096.43 | 1107.04 | -10.61 | -0.96% | 1109.32 | 1095.92 | 13.40 | | Nanhua Comprehensive Consumption NHCIMi | 1181.26 | 1188.65 | -7.39 | -0.62% | 1195.39 | 1178.85 | 16.54 | | Energy Index NHEI | 1056.77 | 1068.99 | -12.22 | -1.14% | 1078.80 | 1053.33 | 25.47 | | Petrochemical Consumption NHPCI | 950.44 | 960.51 | -10.07 | -1.05% | 964.55 | 950.44 | 14.10 | | Coal Chemical Industry Investment AHCCI | 1015.90 | 1031.95 | -16.05 | -1.55% | 1036.83 | 1015.90 | 20.93 | | Black Raw Materials Index NHFMI | 1054.58 | 1050.35 | 4.23 | 0.40% | 1075.72 | 1050.35 | 25.38 | | Building Materials Index NHBMI | 737.62 | 744.61 | -6.99 | -0.94% | 750.58 | 737.62 | 12.96 | | Oilseeds and Oils Index HOOl | 1262.70 | 1281.46 | -18.75 | -1.46% | 1285.62 | 1262.70 | 22.92 | | Economic Crops Index NHAECI | 918.03 | 905.22 | 12.81 | 1.41% | 918.03 | 905.22 | 12.81 | [3] 3.2 Nanhua Variety Index Strength and Weakness Arbitrage Data - The report provides data on the ratio of various Nanhua commodity indices, including the present value, previous value, change, and ranking. For example, the ratio of the precious metals index to the composite index is 0.505, with a change of 0.009517708 and a ranking of 0.833 [6]. 3.3 Contribution of Each Variety's Daily Rise and Fall to the Index Rise and Fall - The report shows the average position volume, month-on-month increase, and position volume ratio of various futures varieties this week. For example, the position volume of soybean meal is 4,280,386 hands, with a month-on-month decrease of -4.72% and a position volume ratio of 11.22% [8]. 3.4 Weekly Data of Nanhua's Various Sector Indices - **Industrial Products Index NHII**: Closed at 3614.83 this week, down -0.44% from last week. The most influential varieties were alumina, soda ash, etc. [10]. - **Metal Index NHMI**: Closed at 6394.54 this week, up 0.46% from last week. The most influential varieties were iron ore, tin, etc. [10]. - **Energy and Chemical Index NHECI**: Closed at 1664.76 this week, down -1.11% from last week. The most influential varieties were crude oil, coke, etc. [10]. - **Agricultural Products Index NHAI**: Closed at 1096.43 this week, down -0.96% from last week. The most influential variety was palm oil [10]. - **Black Index NHFI**: Closed at 2533.25 this week, down -0.10% from last week. The most influential varieties were coke, rebar, etc. [12]. - **Non-ferrous Metals Index NHNFI**: Closed at 1700.10 this week, up 0.50% from last week. The most influential varieties were tin, indium, etc. [14].

Group 1: Report Summary - The BDTI crude oil freight rate index closed at 1043 points on August 28, 2025, up 1.36% week-on-week and 14.48% year-on-year, with the increase widening [2]. - As of the week of August 22, the shipping volume showed a pattern of "three increases and one decrease." The shipping volume from the US increased by 54.34%, Russia by 0.27%, the UAE by 10%, and Saudi Arabia decreased by 14.1% [2]. - As of August 27, the passage volume of crude oil vessels in the Red Sea and Aden Gulf regions increased significantly [2]. - The significant increase in crude oil shipping volume from the US, Russia, and the UAE last week supported the rise of the BDTI freight rate index. The substantial increase in the passage volume of oil tankers in major seas this week indicates a significant month-on-month increase in crude oil shipping volume from the Middle East, supporting the widening increase of the BDTI freight rate index [2]. - An important event to watch is the Fed's interest rate cut expectation [2]. Group 2: BDTI Crude Oil Freight Rate Index Trend - As of August 28, 2025, the BDTI crude oil freight rate index closed at 1043 points, up 1.36% week-on-week and 14.48% year-on-year [2]. - From a seasonal perspective, the freight rate remained stable and increased this week, showing a gap compared to the same period in 2024 [2]. Group 3: Oil Tanker Shipping Distance - In the 32nd week of 2025 (as of August 15), the shipping distances of VLCC, Suezmax, and Aframax tankers all decreased month-on-month, with the VLCC showing the largest decrease. Specifically, the shipping distances of VLCC, Aframax, and Suezmax tankers decreased by 21.47%, 8.04%, and 8.01% respectively month-on-month. Compared with the same period last year, the shipping distances of all three tanker types decreased, with the VLCC showing the largest decrease [4]. Group 4: Oil Tanker Traffic in Red Sea and Aden Gulf - From August 23 - 27, 2025, the total passage volume of oil tankers in the Red Sea increased. The average passage volume of oil tankers in the Red Sea was 798, an increase of 7 compared to the previous week. Among them, the number of crude oil tankers decreased by 4, and the number of refined oil tankers increased by 11. Among the passing crude oil tankers, the number of VLCC decreased by 1, Suezmax by 4, and Aframax by 7 [6]. - The passage volume of oil tankers in the Aden Gulf increased significantly. The passage volume of oil tankers in the Aden Gulf was 117, an increase of 16 compared to the previous week. Among them, the passage volume of crude oil tankers increased by 4, and refined oil tankers by 8. Among the passing crude oil tankers, the number of VLCC increased by 1, Suezmax remained unchanged, and Aframax increased by 12 [6]. Group 5: Oil Tanker Capacity - As of August 22, 2025, 9426 oil tankers were dismantled, an increase of 1 week-on-week and 80 year-on-year; the number of effective vessels was 18331, an increase of 11 week-on-week and 447 year-on-year; the vessel delivery volume was 215, a decrease of 2 week-on-week and an increase of 98 year-on-year; the number of vessel orders was 1332, a decrease of 10 week-on-week and an increase of 108 year-on-year; the number of vessels under construction was 228, an increase of 12 week-on-week and 84 year-on-year [8]. - As of August 23, the port capacity of VLCC and Aframax tankers increased month-on-month, while that of Suezmax tankers decreased. Specifically, the number of docked VLCC tankers was 2381, an increase of 93; the number of docked Aframax tankers was 2846, an increase of 208; the number of docked Suezmax tankers was 2064, a decrease of 57 [8]. Group 6: Crude Oil Shipping Data Tracking - As of August 22, 2025, the crude oil shipping volume from the US, Russia, and the UAE increased month-on-month, while that from Saudi Arabia decreased. Specifically, the weekly US crude oil shipping volume rebounded significantly by 54.34%, Russia's by 0.27%, Saudi Arabia's decreased by 14.1%, and the UAE's rebounded by 10% [10]. - In terms of shipping tanker types for US crude oil, the shipping demand for VLCC increased by 91.79% month-on-month, Aframax by 43.19%, and Suezmax by 15.61% [10]. - For Russian crude oil, the shipping demand for Aframax increased by 17.53% month-on-month, while that for Suezmax decreased by 14.32% [10]. - For Saudi crude oil, the shipping demand for VLCC decreased by 11.87% month-on-month, Aframax decreased significantly by 25.59%, and Suezmax decreased significantly by 50% [10]. - For UAE crude oil, the shipping demand for VLCC increased by 15.65% month-on-month, Aframax increased significantly by 247.58%, and Suezmax decreased by 15.99% [10]. - The total crude oil shipping volume from other countries such as Kuwait, Iraq, Iran, Algeria, and Nigeria increased significantly this week, mainly due to the month-on-month increase in shipping volume from Nigeria, Kuwait, and Iran [28]. Group 7: Crude Oil Arrival - This week, the arrival volume of crude oil in India and the Netherlands increased month-on-month, with the arrival volume in the Netherlands higher than the same period last year. The arrival volume of crude oil in China was lower than the same period last year [29].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The recent stock market rally is driven by funds, sentiment, and structural benefits, forming a positive cycle where increased funds lead to higher trading volumes and greater upward momentum. However, there is a risk of a callback, and key indicators to watch for a shift in sentiment include a contraction in trading volume, a decline in basis, and a drop in implied volatility of options. Currently, trading volume remains around 3 trillion, and while optimism persists, risk management is necessary for single - sided long positions in futures. [1] - The market sentiment is generally positive, and after mid - August, optimism about the long - term stock market trend has increased. Strategies should be mainly long - oriented, but attention should be paid to key indicators for sentiment changes. In terms of style, weight - based stocks are showing advantages, and different trading strategies are recommended for different scenarios. [24] Summary by Directory 1. Recent Stock Market Trend Analysis - Since April, the stock index has shown an overall oscillating upward trend. After the sharp decline in April, the trading volume of broad - based indices gradually returned to normal with the entry of the national team. The rapid upward movement since late June is due to the easing of the Middle - East situation and various structural benefits. From June 20th to now, sectors such as TMT, new energy, non - banking finance, and steel have seen significant gains. [2] - The current rally is driven by the support of the national team, the release of structural benefits, positive sentiment, and the influx of funds. The trading volume of the two markets has climbed from around 1 trillion to about 3.1 trillion, approaching the high of last year. The proportion of margin trading in the total trading volume has also increased from about 8% to around 11.6%. [2] - In terms of stock index style, due to the influx of funds, small - cap stocks represented by the CSI 1000 are stronger as both hot money and leveraged funds prefer small - cap stocks with high elasticity and the support of technology concepts. [3] 2. Futures Index Observation and Analysis - With the rise of the stock market and the strong performance of small - cap stocks, the futures index has the following changes: the inter - period spread (next - quarter - current month) first dropped significantly and then rose rapidly; small - cap futures index IM has shown better performance, but there are signs of a recent style shift; the basis of the futures index has generally increased. [8] - The inter - period spread has not deviated from its operating rules. The stronger performance of the far - month contracts since mid - August may reflect an optimistic shift in market expectations for the far - term trend, influenced by factors such as the rebound from low spreads and the change in market expectations from short - term to long - term. Additionally, arbitrage trading at low spread levels has also contributed to the spread rebound. [8][9] - In terms of cross - varieties, small - and medium - cap futures indices have been stronger during the rally, but there are signs of a style shift since the end of August. This may be due to low - point arbitrage trading, the high valuation of small - cap stocks leading to a potential shift of funds to weight - based stocks, and the heavy trading of weight - based stocks in broad - based indices. [15][16] - The basis of the futures index has been rising due to positive sentiment and is currently at a high level for the year. Although there is still room for growth compared to last year's high, considering the low starting point and significant increase, there is a need to be vigilant about a cooling of sentiment. [18] 3. Stock Index Option Observation and Analysis - The implied volatility of options has increased significantly since mid - August, indicating that the market's long - term expectations have deviated from the previous consensus, and optimism about the long - term trend has increased. The stock index has also made breakthroughs, which may have attracted more funds and boosted sentiment. Currently, the implied volatility of stock index options is at a relatively high - middle level in history with room for further increase. [22] 4. Strategy Recommendations - In terms of futures, single - sided long positions should be held with risk management. In terms of style, it is recommended to focus on IF, but if the Fed cuts interest rates in September and liquidity expectations rise, small - cap stocks may show advantages again, and a temporary shift to IM can be considered. For long - term holding, IF is still recommended. Cross - variety arbitrage can focus on long IF and short IM, especially when the spread is at a low level. In terms of inter - period trading, follow the long - term rule of negative correlation between the stock market and the inter - period spread, and take the opportunity to short far - month contracts and long near - month contracts when the two show positive correlation. [24] - For options, due to the high uncertainty of the stock index trend and implied volatility, it is recommended to combine with spot trading, mainly using the insurance strategy (spot + buying put options) to obtain stock market gains while avoiding the risk of a market decline. [25]

Report Title - Nickel & Stainless Steel: Interwoven with Long and Short Positions, More Following the Overall Market Trend. August 28 Risk Management Daily Report [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The intraday trend of Shanghai Nickel was volatile, with limited improvement in fundamentals. The expectation of interest rate cuts in September on the macro - level warmed up, the US dollar index declined, and non - ferrous metals were boosted, while there was no obvious logical change in fundamentals. Stainless steel also showed a volatile trend intraday, with some spot prices rising. Attention should be paid to the sentiment trend as it approaches the peak demand season in September and October. The macro - level should continue to focus on the September interest rate cut expectation and the trend of the US dollar index [5]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the nickel and stainless - steel market. Positive factors include the Indonesian APNI's plan to revise the HPM formula, shortening the nickel ore quota license period, potential increase in stainless - steel demand from the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower station construction, and increased expectation of interest rate cuts in September. Negative factors include stainless steel entering the traditional off - season, high pure nickel inventory, seasonal increase in nickel ore inventory, Sino - US tariff disturbances, and South Korea's plan to impose anti - dumping duties on China's hot - rolled products [7]. Directory Summaries Price and Volatility Forecast - Shanghai Nickel price range is predicted to be 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2%. The stainless - steel price range is predicted to be 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.27% and a historical percentile of 1.8% [3]. Risk Management Strategies Nickel - **Inventory Management**: When the product sales price drops and inventory has impairment risk, sell Shanghai Nickel futures (NI main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio, and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio [3]. - **Procurement Management**: If the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, buy Shanghai Nickel forward contracts (far - month NI contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) [3]. Stainless Steel - **Inventory Management**: When the product sales price drops and inventory has impairment risk, sell stainless - steel futures (SS main contract) with a 60% hedging ratio, and sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a 50% hedging ratio [4]. - **Procurement Management**: If the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, buy stainless - steel forward contracts (far - month SS contracts) according to the production plan, sell put options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options), and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) [4]. Market Quotes - **Nickel**: The latest price of Shanghai Nickel main continuous contract is 120,990 yuan/ton, with a 0% month - on - month change. The prices of Shanghai Nickel continuous contracts 1, 2, and 3 decreased by 0.63%, 0.64%, and 0.64% respectively. The LME Nickel 3M price is 15,300 US dollars/ton, with a - 0.61% month - on - month change. The trading volume is 129,831 lots, and the open interest is 92,205 lots [8]. - **Stainless Steel**: The latest price of the stainless - steel main continuous contract is 12,850 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of 0%. The prices of stainless - steel continuous contracts 2 and 3 decreased by 0.04% and increased by 0.04% respectively. The trading volume is 121,866 lots, and the open interest is 127,116 lots [11]. Inventory Situation - **Nickel**: Domestic social inventory is 40,872 tons, a decrease of 1,019 tons compared with the previous period. LME nickel inventory is 209,676 tons, an increase of 456 tons [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: Stainless - steel social inventory is 928,800 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons compared with the previous period. Nickel pig iron inventory is 33,111 tons, a decrease of 304 tons [13].

苹果产业风险管理日报 2025/08/29 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | | 8100-8600 | 10.5% | 0.1% | 边舒扬（投资咨询证号：Z0012647 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 苹果价格区间预测 苹果风险管理策略建议 | 行为 | 情景分析 | 现货 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 导向 | | 敞口 | | | 方向 | | 场区间 | | 库存 管理 | 担心全国新苹果丰产， 苹果收购价过低 | 多 | 为了防止新季库存叠加损失，可以根据企业自身 情况，做空苹果期货来锁定利润，弥补企业的生 产成本 | AP2510 | 卖出 | 50% | 8500-8 600 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权收取权利金降低成本，若苹果价上 涨还可以锁定现货卖出价格 | AP2511C8600 | 卖出 | 50% | 100- ...