Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The current focus of soybean meal futures trading is that the external market of US soybeans is mainly driven by export demand under the background of China-US negotiations, with an expected export of 12 million tons to China being gradually priced in. Attention is paid to whether the ending inventory in the USDA report this week will remain around 300 million bushels, and the subsequent price oscillation range will shift slightly upwards. The domestic soybean meal market is gradually pricing in the de-stocking logic after the tariff implementation, with a positive spread logic of near-term strength and long-term weakness. [4] - The current focus of rapeseed meal futures trading is that the supply and demand will remain weak in the fourth quarter. After the Chinese government's decision to resume group tours to Canada on November 3rd, there is an additional expectation of negotiations. Considering the arrival of Australian rapeseed after November, the subsequent demand growth is expected to be limited, and the supply is expected to recover. The inventory of coastal and oil mill rapeseed meal remains high, limiting the rebound space. Attention can be paid to the new warehouse receipt registration after the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts in November. [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current volatility of 9.8% and a historical percentile of 6.8% over three years. The monthly price range forecast for rapeseed meal is 2250 - 2750, with a current volatility of 17.6% and a historical percentile of 32.4% over three years. [3] 2. Hedging Strategy Table - For traders with high protein inventory worried about price drops, they can short soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 25% hedging ratio at the price range of 3300 - 3400 to lock in profits and cover production costs. [3] - For feed mills with low regular inventory, they can buy soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at the price range of 2850 - 3000 to lock in procurement costs in advance. [3] - For oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low selling prices, they can short soybean meal futures (M2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at the price range of 3100 - 3200 to lock in profits and cover production costs. [3] 3. Futures Prices - The closing price of soybean meal 01 is 3054, down 9 (-0.29%); soybean meal 05 is 2836, up 7 (0.25%); soybean meal 09 is 2952, up 9 (0.31%); rapeseed meal 01 is 2500, down 27 (-1.07%); rapeseed meal 05 is 2421, down 7 (-0.29%); rapeseed meal 09 is 2494, down 2 (-0.08%); CBOT yellow soybeans is 1127.5, unchanged (0%); the offshore RMB is 7.1232, up 0.0018 (0.03%). [7][10] 4. Price Spreads and Import Costs/Profits - The price spreads between different contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are provided, along with the spot prices, basis, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal. [11] - The import costs and profits of US Gulf soybeans, Brazilian soybeans, and Canadian rapeseed are presented, including daily and weekly changes. [11] 5. Factors Affecting Prices - Bullish factors include that the Brazilian export premium supports the far-month contract prices from the cost side, the external market strengthens under the background of US soybean procurement, and the pressure on the near-month contracts is relieved during the centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts. [9] - Bearish factors include that the current near-month supply of imported soybeans at ports and oil mills remains high, Brazilian planting is progressing smoothly with a high-yield expectation in South America, and the far-month supply gap is filled under the background of China-US negotiations. [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall cotton harvest in Xinjiang is nearing completion. New - cotton costs are fixed at around 14,600 - 15,000 yuan/ton. The increasing new - season supply will pressure cotton prices. Downstream demand is tepid, but there's a rigid restocking demand from yarn mills. Short - term cotton prices may fluctuate, with attention on hedging pressure around 13,600 - 13,800 [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Cotton Price Forecast and Risk Management - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range for cotton is predicted to be 13,400 - 13,800, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.0543 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.0346 [3]. - **Risk Management Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high inventory worried about price drops, they can short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2601) at 13,700 - 13,800 with a 50% hedging ratio, and sell call options (CF601C13800) at 250 - 300 with a 75% ratio [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For those with low inventory and planning to purchase, they can buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2601) at 13,300 - 13,400 with a 50% hedging ratio, and sell put options (CF601P13400) at 150 - 200 with a 50% ratio [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions and Influencing Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: Some southern Xinjiang areas have lower - than - expected yields and lower lint percentage, supporting the purchase price. Yarn mills have a rigid restocking demand, and positive market sentiment is driven by Sino - US trade talks [4][6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The new - season cotton output has increased year - on - year, leading to high hedging pressure. As of the end of October, domestic cotton industrial and commercial inventories reached 3818,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 109,000 tons. In October 2025, textile and clothing exports were 22.262 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 12.59% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.84%, indicating weak downstream demand [6][7]. 3.3 Cotton and Cotton Yarn Price Information - **Futures Prices**: Cotton 01, 05, and 09 closed at 13,560, 13,560, and 13,735 respectively, all down 20 with a - 0.15% change. Cotton yarn 01 closed at 19,855, down 10 (- 0.05%), while cotton yarn 05 and 09 had significant drops [8]. - **Price Spreads**: Cotton basis was 1282, up 18; the flower - yarn spread was 6280, up 15; the internal - external cotton spread was 1872, up 100 [8]. - **Internal and External Cotton Price Indexes**: CCI 3128B, 2227B, and 2129B decreased slightly, while FCI Index S, M, and L had relatively large drops [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The potential end of the US government shutdown boosted market sentiment, causing stock indices to open higher today. However, they trended downward after the opening and fluctuated until the close, with the total trading volume of the two markets falling below 2 trillion yuan again. The basis of stock index futures declined, and the open interest decreased, indicating a stronger willingness among long - position holders to exit. With a relatively quiet information environment, on one hand, the long - term high - level oscillation has increased the willingness of funds to take profits, leading to a correction pressure on the index; on the other hand, policy expectations provide relatively strong support at the lower level of the index. Therefore, the index is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term. Attention should be paid to the economic data to be released this week to further verify the recovery of the fundamentals [4] Market Review - Stock indices closed lower today. Taking the CSI 300 index as an example, it closed down 0.91%. In terms of funds, the trading volume of the two markets decreased by 180.868 billion yuan. Stock index futures all declined with reduced trading volume [2] Important Information - The State Council General Office issued 13 measures to further promote private investment, including expanding market access, removing bottlenecks, and strengthening guarantees - There is a glimmer of hope in the US government shutdown crisis! The Senate passed a temporary appropriation bill on Sunday to fund the government until next January [3] Strategy Recommendation - Hold positions and wait and see [5] Futures Market Observation | Index | Main Contract Intraday Change (%) | Trading Volume (10,000 lots) | Trading Volume MoM (10,000 lots) | Open Interest (10,000 lots) | Open Interest MoM (10,000 lots) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF | -0.84 | 11.04 | 0.3615 | 26.3184 | -0.5129 | | IH | -0.58 | 5.0142 | 0.4232 | 9.4744 | -0.1967 | | IC | -0.79 | 11.2484 | -1.0252 | 24.1256 | -0.8077 | | IM | -0.30 | 18.6082 | -0.8391 | 35.4095 | -0.0582 | [5] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index Change (%) | -0.39 | | Shenzhen Component Index Change (%) | -1.03 | | Ratio of Rising to Falling Stocks | 1.11 | | Total Trading Volume of the Two Markets (100 million yuan) | 19935.86 | | Trading Volume MoM (100 million yuan) | -1808.68 | [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The short - term weak reality suppresses the upward momentum of the oil market, and the market is running weakly. It is necessary to wait for the final US energy policy to boost the oil market and further news on Indonesia's B50. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines. Due to palm oil entering the production - reduction season and the early arrival of Ramadan in Southeast Asia next year, there may be an opportunity to go long on the far - month P05. At the same time, the short - term support for rapeseed oil and soybean oil is more obvious, and it is advisable to continue to be bullish on the widening of the rapeseed - palm and soybean - palm spreads and the P1 - 5 reverse spread [1][2]. - The future oil market will mainly focus on the final determination of the US biofuel obligation volume, the supply - demand balance game in palm oil producing areas, and the smooth arrival of US soybeans and the progress of China - Canada relations [10]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The core contradiction in the current oil market lies in the supply - demand balance of global oils, with the core drivers mainly in the foreign market. Key contradictions include the digestion of inventory pressure in palm oil producing areas, the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy, and the game between the weak domestic reality and international expectations [1][2]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgement**: Short - term shock adjustment, with the possibility of the price center rising in the medium term. - **Price Range**: P2601 fluctuates in the range of [8400 - 9000], Y2601 in the range of [8000 - 8500], and OI in the range of [9300 - 10000]. Pay short - term attention to the far - month rebound opportunity of palm oil. - **Technical Analysis**: Unilaterally, one can choose to go long on the P05 contract on dips; for arbitrage, one can go long on the rapeseed - palm and soybean - palm spreads. - **Basis Strategy**: Currently, the basis should be regarded from the perspective of short - term weak shock. - **Calendar Spread Strategy**: Considering the Ramadan in Southeast Asia in the first quarter of next year and Indonesia's B50 plan, palm oil has upward potential, and the P1 - 5 spread can be considered from the perspective of reverse spread. - **Hedging Arbitrage Strategy**: The rapeseed - palm spread and the soybean - palm spread will widen [26]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range of soybean oil is 8000 - 8500, rapeseed oil is 9300 - 10000, and palm oil is 8400 - 9000. - **Hedging Strategy**: Different hedging strategies are recommended for traders, refiners, and oil mills according to their inventory and price expectations [27]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The US Senate passed a temporary appropriation bill, ending the government shutdown. As of November 7, 2025, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils decreased week - on - week. The October MPOB report showed a significant increase in Malaysian palm oil exports [32]. - **Negative Information**: Malaysian palm oil inventory and production increased in October. Malaysian palm oil exports decreased from November 1 - 10 compared with the same period last month. As of November 7, the national palm oil commercial inventory increased week - on - week [33]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: The transactions of palm oil and soybean oil declined, and there was almost no transaction in rapeseed oil [34]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Domestic high - frequency weekly inventory data, Malaysian palm oil high - frequency production and export data, MPOB data, the progress of the US small refinery exemption redistribution decision, the progress of China - Canada trade negotiations, and US government information and USDA data [42]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market** - **Unilateral Trend**: The oil market was mainly in shock this week. Although the market sentiment turned bearish, the downward space was limited due to uncertain factors such as the US energy policy and the upcoming production - reduction season in producing areas. Attention should be paid to the bottom - fishing opportunity of palm oil [41]. - **Capital Movement**: The positions of key profitable seats in palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil were cautious. Palm oil foreign and retail investors slightly increased short positions, and long - position confidence was insufficient. The position change of soybean oil was relatively small, and foreign short - position holders slightly reduced positions. Rapeseed oil long - position holders left the market due to the expectation of eased China - Canada relations [41]. - **Basis Structure**: The basis of the main oil contracts continued to grind the bottom this week, and the basis remained weakly due to high domestic inventory and general downstream demand [43]. - **Calendar Spread Structure**: The oil market was differentiated. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil showed a Back structure, which became shallower this week. Palm oil did not have a clear structure, with the spot being the weakest and the 05 contract the strongest, showing a contango structure, but the 09 contract was relatively weak, and the 05 and 09 contracts showed a back structure [43]. - **Spread Structure**: This week, the soybean - palm and rapeseed - palm spreads strengthened, while the rapeseed - soybean spread weakened slightly. This was mainly because there was a lot of negative information in the palm oil market, rapeseed oil lacked clear information, and soybean oil was relatively strong due to the optimistic expectation of China - US trade talks [51]. - **Foreign Market**: The foreign market was mainly in shock this week. The negative factors in palm oil producing areas were temporarily exhausted, and the oil and oilseed sector maintained a shock operation. The cost of US soybeans supported the soybean oil market, and rapeseed oil was stronger than palm oil due to the lack of expectation of eased China - Canada relations [53]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - This week, the POGO and BOHO spreads continued to decline. The production cost of bio - fuels decreased slightly due to the decline in palm oil prices, and the cost of producing biodiesel from US soybean oil remained low due to sufficient global soybean supply [58]. 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - China is a net importer of palm oil. Recently, the cost price decreased slightly due to the decline in origin quotes, but the profit changed little, and there were almost no new purchase orders under the negative basis [60]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Origin Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - In October, Malaysian palm oil production and inventory slightly exceeded market expectations, but the negative impact of increased production was offset by a significant increase in exports. The La Nina climate has appeared in the producing areas, and the subsequent impact remains to be observed. After October, it will enter the seasonal production - reduction season, and attention should be paid to the inventory - reduction progress in the producing areas [64]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - **Palm Oil**: Under the negative basis, traders' purchasing willingness is extremely low, and it is expected that there will be little possibility of new near - month purchase orders. In the fourth quarter, the supply pressure is not expected to increase [66]. - **Soybean Oil**: The current arrival of soybeans is still high, but the supply pressure will gradually weaken from December as the arrival of soybeans decreases [66]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The current domestic inventory is high, and the downstream demand is limited. However, the inventory will gradually decrease in the fourth quarter. If China - Canada relations do not ease, there may be a supply shortage from the end of this year to the first quarter of next year [66]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - In the short term, the inventory pressure of the three major oils is large, and the demand is sluggish. Although the fourth quarter is the traditional consumption peak season for oils, the market boost after the festival stocking is limited, and the overall terminal demand for oils remains weak [70].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The bullish trend in the lithium carbonate market is clear, but considering the recent rapid price increase, it is necessary to be vigilant against the resistance at the 90,000 yuan/ton mark and guard against potential subsequent correction risks [5]. - The core contradiction lies in the supply - demand mismatch. The arrival of more lithium concentrate at ports this month can ease the tight situation at the lithium ore end. The release of salt lake production capacity will continuously supplement the supply of the lithium salt market, and the "resumption speed of Jianxiaowo" is a key variable. The demand is currently strong, with the prices of core battery materials rising, and the downstream production schedule in November remaining highly prosperous [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Futures Data - **Price Range Forecast**: The strong support level of the lithium carbonate LC2601 contract is 73,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 35.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 59.0% [2]. - **Futures Contract Data**: For the lithium carbonate futures, the closing price, trading volume, and open interest of the main contract and weighted contract have different daily and weekly changes. For example, the closing price of the main contract is 86,540 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 700 yuan (-0.80%) and a weekly increase of 7,980 yuan (10.16%) [8]. - **Spread Data**: The spreads between different contracts such as LC2601 - LC2603, LC2601 - LC2605, and LC2603 - LC2605 also show daily and weekly changes [8]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate warehouse receipts are 28,099 lots, with a daily increase of 608 lots (2.21%) and a weekly increase of 1,609 lots (6.07%) [8]. 2. Spot Data - **Lithium Ore Quotations**: The average daily prices of various lithium ores such as lithium mica, lithium spodumene, and phospho - lithium - aluminite have daily and weekly increases. For example, the latest average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2 - 2.5%) is 2,220 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 40 yuan (1.83%) and a weekly increase of 105 yuan (4.96%) [24]. - **Carbonate/Hydroxide Lithium Prices**: The prices of industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium carbonate, as well as different grades of lithium hydroxide, have daily and weekly changes. For example, the latest average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 80,100 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1,550 yuan (1.97%) and a weekly increase of 1,400 yuan (1.78%) [27]. - **Lithium Industry Chain Spot Spreads**: The spreads such as the difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, and the difference between CIF prices in Japan and South Korea and domestic prices of battery - grade lithium hydroxide also show changes [31]. - **Downstream Product Prices**: The prices of downstream products such as phosphoric (manganese) iron lithium, ternary materials, and electrolytes have different daily price changes [32][33]. 3. Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis Data**: The basis of the main continuous contract of lithium carbonate and the basis quotations of different brands show different values and changes [35][37]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 28,099 lots, with an increase of 608 lots compared to yesterday. Different warehouses have different changes in warehouse receipt quantities [40]. 4. Cost and Profit - **Production Profit**: The production profit of lithium carbonate from外购 lithium ore (including lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica concentrate), import profit, and theoretical delivery profit are presented in the form of time - series charts [42][44]. Lithium - Battery Enterprise Risk Management Strategy Recommendations - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises worried about cost increases, strategies include buying far - month futures contracts (40% recommended hedging ratio), selling LC2601 - P - 73000 (20% recommended hedging ratio), and using option combination strategies (20% recommended hedging ratio). For those worried about inventory impairment after procurement, strategies include selling the main futures contract (20% recommended hedging ratio) and using combination option strategies (10% recommended hedging ratio) [2]. - **Sales Management**: For enterprises worried about profit reduction due to price drops during sales, strategies include selling corresponding futures contracts (20% recommended hedging ratio), selling LC2601 - C - 90000 (10% recommended hedging ratio), and using combination option strategies (10% recommended hedging ratio) [2]. - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high lithium carbonate inventory worried about inventory depreciation, strategies include selling the main futures contract (20% recommended hedging ratio) and selling LC2601 - C - 90000 (10% recommended hedging ratio) [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Industrial Silicon**: Expected to remain in a wide - range oscillation phase with no significant drivers currently. Supply - side pressure is likely to gradually ease, while demand from different sectors shows mixed trends. The "anti - involution" policy is a positive factor, but downstream industry integration or production cuts may weaken demand [4][5]. - **Polysilicon**: The short - term trading focus is on whether the November photovoltaic storage platform will be established, followed by the expected game of "November centralized warehouse receipt cancellation". The market shows "supply increase, demand stability" characteristics, and the overall risk is relatively high [7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon - **Futures Data** - The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract was 9180 yuan/ton, down 1.18% daily and up 3.32% weekly. The trading volume was 326,774 lots, down 10.66% daily and 13.96% weekly. The open interest was 270,959 lots, down 3.75% daily and up 11.90% weekly [10]. - The industrial silicon weighted index contract closing price was 9168 yuan/ton, down 1.21% daily and up 3.19% weekly. The trading volume was 411,740 lots, down 10.30% daily and 15.12% weekly. The open interest was 426,734 lots, down 3.02% daily and up 3.71% weekly [10]. - The number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts was 46,255 lots, up 0.16% daily and 0.20% weekly [10]. - **Spot Data** - In the industrial silicon sector, the prices of 99 and 553 in Xinjiang were 8850 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.57%. The price in Tianjin was 9400 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.53%. The price in Yunnan was 9600 yuan/ton, unchanged weekly. The price of 421 in Xinjiang was 9100 yuan/ton, unchanged weekly [18]. - In the mid - stream, the price of 99 and 553 industrial silicon powder was 10,100 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.51%. The price of 421 was 10,700 yuan/ton, unchanged weekly [18]. - In the downstream, the price of trichlorosilane was 3375 yuan/kg, unchanged weekly. The polysilicon N - type price index was 52 yuan/kg, down 0.02% weekly. The price of organic silicon DMC was 11,150 yuan/ton, unchanged weekly. The price of aluminum alloy ADC12 was 21,500 yuan/ton, up 0.47% weekly [18]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts** - The total number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts was 46,079 lots, down 176 lots from the previous period. The inventory in various delivery warehouses showed little change [29]. Polysilicon - **Futures Data** - The closing price of the polysilicon main contract was 51,930 yuan/ton, down 3.33% daily and 3.32% weekly. The trading volume was 324,598 lots, up 48.36% daily and 18.32% weekly. The open interest was 138,468 lots, up 9.92% daily and 7.44% weekly [30]. - The polysilicon weighted index closing price was 51,997 yuan/ton, down 3.28% daily and 3.28% weekly. The trading volume was 268,888 lots, down 18.66% daily and 3.07% weekly. The open interest was 222,392 lots, down 2.09% daily and 13.83% weekly [30]. - The number of polysilicon futures warehouse receipts was 9850 lots, up 2.71% weekly [30]. - **Spot Data** - In the polysilicon sector, the prices of N - type re -投料, N - type dense material, N - type mixed material, and N - type granular silicon were 52.2, 51, 50.5, and 50.5 yuan/kg respectively, all unchanged weekly [45]. - For N - type silicon wafers, the silicon wafer price index was 1.29 yuan/piece, down 2.00% weekly. The prices of G10 - 182 (130um) and G12 - 210 (130um) were 1.28 and 1.63 yuan/piece respectively, down 4.48% and 3.55% weekly [46]. - For battery cells, the prices of different types showed various changes, with some remaining unchanged and some having slight decreases or increases [46]. - For components, the prices of different types also showed various changes, with some having slight increases [46]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data** - The basis of the polysilicon main contract was 70 yuan/ton, up 1790 yuan from the previous day and 1775 yuan from the previous week [56]. - The total number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 9850 lots, unchanged [56].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral view on the natural rubber industry in the medium to long term [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Currently, the downstream automotive supporting production, sales, and exports are performing well, and the downstream operating rate is stable. The decline in rubber prices can drive manufacturers' rigid - demand purchases, providing effective support for the lower limit of rubber prices. However, the industrial chain inventory pressure is significant, leading to average downstream trading willingness, limited domestic demand growth, and existing export obstacles. In the medium to long term, the global total production capacity cycle has not fully reached its peak, and the supply pressure will increase. The stable demand expectation requires continuous macro - level benefits and actual implementation. The export growth, although resilient, still faces risks and challenges such as international situations and trade barriers [1][2] - In the future, rubber prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation. In the short term, the valuation may increase with market fluctuations. The report suggests different trading strategies based on price trends and market conditions [1][14] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The downstream automotive supporting production, sales, and exports are good, and the operating rate is stable. The decline in rubber prices can drive rigid - demand purchases, providing support for the lower limit of rubber prices. However, the industrial chain inventory pressure is large, domestic demand growth is limited, and export obstacles exist. The market expects an increase in natural rubber supply, and the abundant supply and weak cost of synthetic rubber drag down the overall valuation of the rubber system [1] - In the medium to long term, the global production capacity cycle has not peaked, and the supply pressure will increase. Stable demand requires continuous macro - level benefits. The export growth faces risks from international situations and trade barriers [2] 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Price Range and Trend Judgement**: The short - term reference oscillation range for RU2601 is 14900 - 15300, and for NR2511 is 12000 - 12400. It is expected to maintain an oscillatory trend, with short - term sentiment possibly warming up, but the pressure from the weak supply - demand expectation still exists [14] - **Strategy Suggestions**: For the short - term, take a bullish view with a focus on upper pressure levels. Consider hedging strategies such as combining protective options or using a long - volatility strategy. Hold the RU spot - futures positive arbitrage and pay attention to warehouse receipt changes. For NR, pay attention to high - level reverse arbitrage opportunities. For the 01 combination of the depth - difference spread, adopt a strategy of expanding the spread when the price is low [15] 3.1.3 Industry Customer Operation Suggestions - **Price Forecast**: The predicted price range for rubber RU in the next two weeks is 14800 - 15700, and for 20 - grade rubber NR is 11900 - 12700 [18] - **Risk Management Strategy**: For inventory management, adopt strategies such as shorting rubber futures, buying out - of - the - money put options, and selling call options. For procurement management, consider buying rubber far - month futures, buying out - of - the - money call options, and selling put options [18] 3.2 Important Information and Focus Events 3.2.1 Last Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: In October, the CPI and core CPI showed positive changes. The auto consumption index was high, and the sales of heavy - duty trucks and new - energy passenger vehicles increased. There were favorable weather conditions and positive progress in Sino - US economic and trade relations [20][21] - **Negative Information**: The EU launched an anti - subsidy investigation on Chinese tires. The rubber production in Thailand is expected to increase, and China's rubber imports increased. There were declines in the European replacement tire market and some negative macro - economic factors [22][24] 3.2.2 This Week's Focus Points - Pay attention to rainfall in rubber - producing areas and its impact on raw material supply, changes in dry - rubber imports and exports and social inventory, downstream tire export data and operating rate, and important macro - economic data and events [26] 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend**: Last week, rubber prices stabilized and rebounded after falling to the lower limit of the range. RU01 stabilized around 15000, and NR01 returned to around 12000. RU positions increased steadily, and NR positions rebounded slightly [28] - **Capital Movement**: In terms of profitable positions on the disk, the long and short positions of RU were stable, while the short positions of NR made more profits with a decrease in positions [31] 3.3.2 Spot Market and Spread Analysis - **Spot Price Changes**: Last Friday, spot prices generally declined, with relatively large declines in whole - milk, Indian - standard, and Vietnamese No. 10 standard rubber [35] - **Term Structure Analysis**: - **Basis Changes**: Last week, the overall center of gravity of RU shifted downward, and the near - term contracts strengthened relatively. The 11 - 01 spread continued positive arbitrage. NR prices fell, and the back structure deepened [48][49] - **Month - spread Structure**: The Tocom RSS3 price decline led to a weakening of near - month contracts, and the C structure deepened. The Singapore TRES20 rubber price slightly increased, and the structure was flat [56] - **Internal - External Spread**: The spread between RU and Japanese smoked - sheet rubber futures narrowed, and the spread between NR and Singapore standard rubber oscillated and narrowed [59] - **Virtual - to - Physical Ratio and Sentiment Index**: Recently, the rubber market sentiment has fluctuated greatly, with a neutral sentiment last week. The downstream tire demand sentiment slightly improved. Currently, the RU warehouse receipts are low, and the virtual - to - physical ratio continues to rise, while the NR virtual - to - physical ratio has decreased compared to the previous period [64][65] - **Variety Spread Analysis**: - **Dry - rubber Spot Spread**: Last week, the depth - difference spread steadily widened, and the relative valuation of whole - milk rubber was further repaired. The supply pressure of standard products may increase in the future, and attention should be paid to domestic weather and downstream production and sales [66] - **Natural and Synthetic Rubber Spread**: Last week, the operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber decreased, while the operating rates of butadiene and styrene - butadiene rubber recovered. The supply pressure of synthetic rubber was strong, and the spread between natural and synthetic rubber remained high [70] 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Industrial Chain Profit Tracking - **Raw Material Cost**: Last week, rain in Hainan and southern Thailand affected raw material prices, with prices remaining firm in Hainan and southern Thailand, and weakening in Yunnan. The water - cup price difference in Thailand rebounded [72] - **Processing Profit**: The delivery profit of whole - milk rubber was similar to last week, and the profit of TSR9710 slightly declined. The import profit of Thai smoked - sheet rubber was flat, while the profits of Thai standard rubber and mixed rubber decreased and then slightly recovered [81][83] 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply Side - **Production in Main Producing Countries**: The natural rubber production in Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, China, and India shows seasonal characteristics [86] - **Import Situation**: In October, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month [87] 3.5.2 Demand Side - **Total Demand in Main Producing Countries**: In September, except for India, the total demand in main producing countries decreased month - on - month. The consumption in Malaysia and Indonesia in September was higher than the same period, but the cumulative volume remained low [90] - **Tire Production and Sales**: Last week, the operating rate of most tire enterprises returned to normal. The sales of all - steel and semi - steel tires showed different trends, and tire exports were resilient but faced challenges such as EU anti - subsidy investigations [93] - **Replacement Demand**: The domestic logistics industry has been stable this year, but the slowdown in fixed - asset investment may suppress the growth of replacement demand in the long term [98] - **Supporting Demand - Automobiles**: Domestic passenger car sales have been strong, and commercial vehicle sales have also increased year - on - year. Automobile exports have increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [100][102] - **Supporting Demand - Heavy - duty Trucks and Construction Machinery**: The production of heavy - duty trucks has increased this year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth of construction machinery's domestic sales and exports is 11.24%. In the long term, the growth of new demand for trucks may be limited [107] - **Overseas Tire Production**: Japan's tire production has been stable this year, and Thailand's tire shipment index has increased year - on - year [109] - **Overseas Tire Demand**: US tire imports have increased despite a decline in auto sales. European passenger car production and sales are stable, while commercial vehicle production has decreased significantly. The production and export of Japanese and South Korean automobiles show different trends [111] - **Other Rubber Product Demand**: In October, the operating rate of domestic conveyor belts decreased to a five - year low, while the operating rate of rubber hoses was relatively good year - on - year [127] 3.5.3 Inventory Side - **Futures Inventory**: Affected by weather, RU warehouse receipts continued to decline, while NR warehouse receipts increased due to stable rubber imports and high downstream wait - and - see sentiment [130] - **Social Inventory**: As of November 9, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased slightly, with a decrease in bonded - area inventory and an increase in general - trade inventory [132]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The price of precious metals is expected to continue rising in the medium and long term due to central bank gold purchases and increasing investment demand. In the short term, precious metals have strengthened. For London gold, the resistance level is at 4150, and the support level is between 4000 - 4050. For silver, the support level is between 49.5 - 50, and the resistance level is at 52.5 [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Monday, precious metal prices rose strongly. The potential end of the US government shutdown alleviated the current shortage of market liquidity and supported the Fed's December interest rate cut expectation. COMEX Gold 2512 contract closed at $4123.4 per ounce, up 2.83%; US Silver 2512 contract closed at $50.405 per ounce, up 4.7%. SHFE Gold 2512 main contract closed at 935.98 yuan per gram, up 2%; SHFE Silver 2512 contract closed at 11719 yuan per kilogram, up 2.85% [2] Interest Rate Cut Expectation and Fund Holdings - According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability that the Fed will keep the interest rate unchanged on December 11 is 35.9%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 64.1%. The long - term SPDR Gold ETF holdings remained at 1042.06 tons, and iShares Silver ETF holdings remained at 15088.63 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 14 tons to 610 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 74.9 tons to 830.33 tons in the week ending October 31 [3] This Week's Focus - In terms of data, focus on the US CPI report on Thursday evening. In terms of events, on Wednesday, FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will speak at 22:20; 2026 FOMC voter and Philadelphia Fed President Paulson will speak on fintech at 23:00; US Treasury Secretary Bessent will speak at 23:45. On Friday, 2025 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem will speak on monetary policy at 01:15; 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Hamark will participate in a fireside chat at 01:20; 2025 FOMC voter and Kansas City Fed President Schmid will speak on economic outlook and monetary policy at 23:05. On Saturday, 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan will participate in a fireside chat at 03:30 [4] Precious Metal Spot and Futures Price Table - SHFE Gold Main Continuous contract is at 935.98 yuan per gram, up 1.6%; SGX Gold TD is at 933.02 yuan per gram, up 1.68%. CME Gold Main contract is at $4123.4 per ounce, up 2.88%. SHFE Silver Main Continuous contract is at 11719 yuan per kilogram, up 2.05%; SGX Silver TD is at 11726 yuan per kilogram, up 2.14%; CME Silver Main contract is at $50.405 per ounce, up 4.52%. SHFE - TD Gold is at 2.96 yuan per gram, down 18.23%; SHFE - TD Silver is at - 7 yuan per kilogram, down 33.33%. CME Gold - Silver Ratio is at 81.8054, down 1.57% [6][7] Inventory and Position Table - SHFE Gold inventory is 89616 kilograms, unchanged; CME Gold inventory is 1173.5181 tons, unchanged; SHFE Gold position is 136657 lots, down 3 lots. SPDR Gold position is 1042.06 tons, unchanged. SHFE Silver inventory is 609.978 tons, down 2.1%; CME Silver inventory is 14901.8329 tons, down 0.21%; SGX Silver inventory is 830.31 tons, down 8.28%; SHFE Silver position is 243217 lots, down 0.94%. SLV Silver position is 15088.632696 tons, unchanged [16] Stock, Bond, and Commodity Summary - The US Dollar Index is at 99.6233, up 0.08%; the US Dollar against the Chinese Yuan is at 7.1232, up 0.03%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is at 47368.63 points, up 0.81%. WTI crude oil spot is at $59.75 per barrel, up 0.54%. LmeS Copper 03 is at $10874.5 per ton, up 1.68%. The 10 - year US Treasury yield is at 4.13%, up 0.49%; the 10 - year US real interest rate is at 1.84%, up 0.55%; the 10 - 2 year US Treasury yield spread is at 0.56%, up 3.7% [22]

金融期货早评 宏观：美国政府结束关门在望 【市场资讯】1）国办发文提出 13 项措施进一步促进民间投资，扩大准入、打通堵点、强 化保障。2）中国两部门：优化论证新能源配置及送出消纳方案，促进"沙戈荒"新能源基地 实现规模化就地消纳。3）美国政府关门或再持续数天，参院关键程序性投票通过临时拨款 法案后还要走完程序，众院何时表决未定。4）媒体称美国接近将 39%瑞士关税砍到 15%， 特朗普称设法略降瑞士关税，接近达成协议降低印度关税。5）特朗普"钦点"的美联储理事 米兰：政府关门不会影响我对美国经济的看法，12 月应降息 50 基点。6）私营行业数据： 美国 10 月消费品价格涨幅三个月来首次放缓。 【核心逻辑】国内方面，物价指数边际回升，其背后更多受低基数效应、反内卷等因素驱 动。出口同比增速受基数扰动回落显著，在出口对经济的拉动作用边际放缓的背景下，提 振内需或将成为后续政策的重要发力方向。上周海外市场核心看点集中于流动性阶段性紧 张、美国政府超长停摆及美元指数反弹三大方面。目前美国政府停摆有望终结：参院关键 程序性投票通过临时拨款法案后还要走完程序，众院何时表决未定。若相关程序顺利推进， 美国政府最早或于 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View - Weekend economic data showed exports turned negative year-on-year due to holidays, high base effects, and a temporary decline in external demand. In terms of price data, CPI turned positive year-on-year, core CPI rebounded, service consumption contribution increased, and the year-on-year drag of food CPI eased, reflecting marginal repair of domestic consumption demand. PPI continued to rise year-on-year, and the decline narrowed further compared to September, mainly due to the continuous rise in upstream industry prices, indicating initial results of anti-involution policies, waiting for price transmission to spread downstream. Positive price data boosted market confidence in economic repair, leading to gains in large consumption sectors such as liquor, beauty care, and retail, and the index was generally strong with increased volume. However, the basis of stock index futures deepened for all contracts except IH, and the dividend index led the gains, indicating that market sentiment had not fully improved and remained cautious. This week, financial data, industrial added value, and social retail data will be released to further verify the economic repair situation. In addition, the concentrated issuance of US Treasury bonds overseas this week will test market liquidity, and overseas market fluctuations may affect the risk appetite of the A-share market. However, the support below is relatively stable based on policy expectations, and it is expected that the stock index will remain in a volatile pattern [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Today, the stock index fluctuated strongly. Taking the CSI 300 Index as an example, it closed up 0.35%. In terms of capital, the trading volume of the two markets rebounded by 1.75401 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IM rose with reduced volume, while the other varieties rose with increased volume [3]. Important Information - Trump said the government shutdown was nearing an end. - China's exports denominated in US dollars decreased by 1.1% year-on-year in October, and imports increased by 1.0% year-on-year. - China's CPI rose 0.2% year-on-year in October, and PPI decreased 2.1% year-on-year [4]. Strategy Recommendation - Hold and wait and see [5]. Stock Index Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | 0.28 | 0.45 | 0.07 | 0.13 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 10.6785 | 4.591 | 12.2736 | 19.4473 | | Trading volume MoM (10,000 lots) | 2.0335 | 0.8106 | 1.5775 | 0.6856 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 26.8313 | 9.6711 | 24.9333 | 35.4677 | | Open interest MoM (10,000 lots) | 1.0827 | 0.5768 | 0.8841 | -0.1747 | [5] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 0.53 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | 0.18 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 1.73 | | Trading volume of the two markets (100 million yuan) | 21744.54 | | Trading volume MoM (100 million yuan) | 1754.01 | [6]