国债期货日报 2025年9月1日 股债保持低相关 观点：波段思路进行抄底 南华研究院 徐晨曦（Z0001908） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 盘面点评： 周一期债低开高走，品种全线收涨，中长债涨幅更大。现券收益率中长端下行较为明显。公开市场净回笼 1057亿。资金面宽松，DR001回落至1.31%。 日内消息： 1.中国8月标普制造业PMI回升至50.5，前值为49.5。此前公布的数据显示，8月官方制造业PMI小幅回升至 49.4。 source： wind,南华研究 T主力合约基差与IRR source： wind,南华研究 元 T基差：主连 T IRR：主连 % (右轴) 02/28 04/30 06/30 0 0.5 1 -1 0 1 2 3 4 TL主力合约基差与IRR source： wind,南华研究 元 TL基差：主连 TL IRR：主连(右轴) ％ 02/28 04/30 06/30 -1 0 1 -2 0 2 4 6 TF主力合约基差与IRR source： wind,南华研究 元 TF基差：主连 TF IRR：主连(右轴) ％ 02/28 04/30 06/30 -0 ...

Report Summary 1. Core View - The core contradictions include the normalization of auctions, with low - price auction grains impacting the supply and price system in a situation of weak supply and demand. There is a lack of short - term bullish support factors, and the expected mid - term demand improvement is less than the pressure from the new season's listing. The concentration of short positions in the November contract has increased, showing a clear bearish attitude [3]. - Bullish factors are that the bottom - level remaining grain is almost exhausted, and the inventory clearance of traders is relatively small, which restricts the price decline. Also, the gradually recovering concentrated consumption scenarios are expected to boost the edible consumption demand [5]. - Bearish factors are the expected improvement in the quality and yield of new - season soybeans, which will lead to a concentrated supply increase and put continuous pressure on prices. Low - price auction grains are impacting the price system of old - season commercial grains, and the normalization of auctions continuously supplements market supply. Additionally, when the futures price rebounds, long - side positions are reduced, and some short - side seats continue to increase short positions [5]. 2. Price Data - From August 28 to August 29, 2025, the closing prices of most soybean contracts increased, with the November contract rising from 3927 to 3945 (up 18, or 0.46%), the January contract rising from 3931 to 3948 (up 17, or 0.43%), the March contract rising from 3937 to 3950 (up 13, or 0.33%), the May contract rising from 3980 to 3995 (up 15, or 0.38%), and the July contract rising from 3984 to 3999 (up 15, or 0.38%). The September contract decreased from 4092 to 4080 (down 12, or - 0.29%) [4]. 3. Risk Strategies - **Inventory Management for Long Positions** - For planting entities with high demand for selling new soybeans in autumn but facing large short - term selling pressure and price suppression, it is recommended to take advantage of the futures price rebound to lock in planting profits by short - selling soybean futures (contract A2511), with a short - side position ratio of 30% and an entry price range of 4000 - 4050 [2]. - When there is a large - scale listing and the seller's bargaining power weakens, it is recommended to sell call options (A2511 - C - 4050) to increase the grain - selling price, with a selling ratio of 30% and an entry price range of 50 - 60 [2]. - **Procurement Management for Short Positions** - For those worried about rising raw material prices and increased procurement costs, since the probability of price decline is relatively large, it is recommended to mainly wait to purchase spot goods in the medium term and focus on long - term procurement management. Consider contracts A2603 and A2605, with a long - side position, and wait for the autumn price guidance [2].

Group 1: Financial Futures - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Domestic prop - up policies are gradually exerting force. Promoting service consumption policies in September and real - estate policies are advancing. Overseas, the US economy shows resilience. The final effects of domestic policies need further observation, and attention should be paid to upcoming US economic data [1][2] - **Summary by Related Catalogs**: - **Macroeconomics**: Policies are being promoted both domestically and overseas. In China, service and real - estate policies are advancing, and manufacturing PMI slightly rebounds. In the US, economic data shows resilience, and there are tariff - related legal issues [1] - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: The depreciation pressure of the RMB against the US dollar is slowing. In the short - term, it's about the rhythm of appreciation and has a low probability of returning to the "6 era". In the medium - term, it needs a decline in the US dollar index and improvement in the domestic economy [3][4][5] - **Stock Index**: After the release of two major data over the weekend, the market is expected to be volatile, with large - cap stock indices relatively stronger. It is recommended to hold long positions [7] - **Treasury Bonds**: After the release of August's manufacturing PMI, the bond market is not sensitive to fundamental data. If the stock market fluctuates at a high level, the bond market may rebound; otherwise, it may test the bottom again. It is recommended to take small - band bottom - fishing strategies [8][9] - **Container Shipping**: The decline in ONE's European - line spot cabin quotes is negative for futures prices. However, the ruling that Trump's global tariffs are illegal is positive for the global trade environment and EC prices. EC may show an oscillating or oscillating - upward trend [10][11] Group 2: Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Different non - ferrous metals have different market trends and influencing factors. For example, precious metals are affected by Fed rate - cut expectations and Fed independence concerns; copper is in a state of multi - factor balance; aluminum is affected by macro and fundamental factors [12][16][20] - **Summary by Related Catalogs**: - **Gold & Silver**: The price is mainly affected by Fed rate - cut expectations and Fed independence concerns. In the short - term, it is expected to be strong. It is recommended to buy on dips and hold existing long positions [12][13][15] - **Copper**: Before the Fed's next rate decision on September 19, copper prices may continue to oscillate. In the fourth quarter, it is recommended to buy at low levels. The price is affected by multiple factors such as Fed rate cuts, supply and demand [16][17][18] - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: - **Aluminum**: In the short - term, it is oscillating and bullish, but there is pressure above. It is recommended to build positions in batches on dips [20] - **Alumina**: It is weakly oscillating, with insufficient upward drive and limited downward space [21] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It is oscillating and bullish, and can consider arbitrage operations [22] - **Zinc**: It is currently at the bottom and oscillating strongly in the short - term [22][23] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The market is oscillating this week, affected by macro and market factors. Nickel is expected to oscillate between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan, and stainless steel between 12,500 - 13,100 yuan [23][26] - **Tin**: The price increase is driven by tight supply. It is expected to be slightly bullish in the short - term, with a target price of 276,000 yuan per ton [27][28] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures market is expected to enter an oscillating and sorting stage. It is recommended to gradually close short positions and wait and see [29][31] - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: - **Industrial Silicon**: It is expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term [32][34] - **Polysilicon**: It is expected to be oscillating and bullish due to industry integration expectations [33][35] - **Lead**: It is oscillating narrowly, with limited upward and downward space [36] Ferrous Metals - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The ferrous metal market is generally under pressure. Steel products have a weak supply - demand pattern, and iron ore has increasing risks, while coal - coke and ferroalloys also face different challenges [38][40][43] - **Summary by Related Catalogs**: - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The supply - demand pattern of steel products is weak, and a negative feedback mechanism may form. It is recommended to maintain a bearish strategy and pay attention to demand in the peak season and policy changes [38][39] - **Iron Ore**: Although the current fundamentals are stable, the pressure on steel inventory and iron ore shipments is increasing, and the risk of price decline is rising [40][41] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal market may oscillate widely at a high level, and coke may face price cuts after the parade. It is recommended to use an oscillating strategy for coking coal and consider selling hedging for coke [42][43] - **Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese**: The supply is loose, and they are oscillating at the bottom. It is recommended to consider a long - spread strategy for the two [44][45] Energy and Chemicals - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: Different energy and chemical products have different market trends. Crude oil is oscillating weakly, and other products such as LPG, PTA - PX, etc. are affected by supply, demand, and cost factors [46][53][55] - **Summary by Related Catalogs**: - **Crude Oil**: It is oscillating weakly. In September, there are negative factors such as seasonal decline in demand, and it is necessary to pay attention to key events and the Russia - Ukraine situation [46][48][49] - **LPG**: The market is oscillating. Supply is controllable, and demand changes little. The market is affected by multiple factors [50][51][52] - **PTA - PX**: The market is affected by supply - side news, and it is recommended to reduce the TA processing margin on rallies [53][54][55] - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: The fundamentals of ethylene glycol are driven weakly, and it is recommended to buy on dips within the range and consider option strategies in the long - term [56][58][59] - **Methanol**: It is under pressure. It is recommended to hold a small number of long positions and sold put options and pay attention to Iranian shipments and port pick - up [60][61] - **PP**: The demand situation is unclear. The supply is increasing, and the future depends on whether the demand can maintain high - speed growth [62][63][64] - **PE**: The demand is recovering but not strong enough to drive. It is expected to be in an oscillating pattern and wait for a demand signal [65][66] - **PVC**: The price returns to the industrial level. With weak fundamentals, it is recommended to maintain a short - position allocation [67][68] - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: For pure benzene, the supply is stable, demand is weak, and it is expected to oscillate weakly. For styrene, inventory is increasing, and the outlook is bearish [69][70][71]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core factors affecting the EC price trend this week are the weak demand in the off - season and the continuous decline of the spot cabin quotes for European routes in early September by major shipping companies, which has led to a decrease in the valuation of futures prices [2]. - The short - term futures price valuation is still relatively weak, but the ruling by the US Federal Circuit Court of Appeals that most of the global tariff measures implemented by former President Trump are illegal brings some positive macro - sentiment, and there is a relatively high possibility of a slight short - term rebound in the futures price [7]. - If the cease - fire agreement in Gaza is reached again or other geopolitical risks in the Middle East suddenly decrease, leading to the resumption of shipping in the Red Sea, the freight rates for European routes will significantly decline. Also, the off - season demand may further weaken in the following months, and the support from demand during peak seasons like December may be relatively weak [8]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Chapter 1: Core Factors and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Factors - The EC price is highly positively correlated with the spot cabin quotes for European routes. Currently, the market is in the off - season, with a significant decline in booking demand and weakened support for European route freight rates [2]. - In the short - term, the futures price may slightly rebound due to positive macro - sentiment, while in the long - term, if the Red Sea resumes shipping and the off - season demand weakens, the European route freight rates will decline [7][8]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: The market is in the middle of a downward trend. The short - term support level for the main contract is in the range of 1200 - 1250, and the pressure level is in the range of 1310 - 1360 [15]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Considering the off - season and weak demand, one can choose to sell for hedging at high positions, with the recommended entry range being 1350 - 1400 [15]. - **Spot - Futures (Basis) Strategy**: Traders can short the basis at an appropriate time [15]. - **Arbitrage (Inter - period) Strategy**: It is advisable to stay on the sidelines for now [15]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Suggestions - **EC Risk Management Strategy Suggestions**: For companies with full shipping capacity or poor booking volume, they can short the container shipping index futures to lock in profits when they are worried about falling freight rates. For companies concerned about rising freight rates, they can buy container shipping index futures to determine booking costs in advance [14]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Comprehensive Freight Index**: The FBX comprehensive route index decreased by 3.46% week - on - week, the CICFI increased by 1.32%, the SCFI increased by 2.1%, the NCFI increased by 6.02%, the CCFI decreased by 1.58%, the CFFI decreased by 4.99%, the SCFIS for European routes decreased by 8.71%, the SCFIS for the US West Coast route decreased by 5.87%, the SCFI for European routes decreased by 11.21%, the SCFI for the US West Coast route increased by 16.97%, and the SCFI for the US East Coast route increased by 9.68% [16]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The US Federal Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that most of Trump's global tariff measures were illegal. China's Ministry of Commerce is actively promoting Sino - US and Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations. Hamas has expressed its willingness to reach a cease - fire agreement, but Israel's Prime Minister has refused [27]. - **Negative Information**: Trump is trying to break the negotiation deadlock between Israel and Hamas. The spot cabin quotes for European routes in early September by major shipping companies continue to decline, and the SCFI for European routes is accelerating its decline [28][29]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - The release of China's official manufacturing PMI for August and the final manufacturing PMI values for August in Europe and the US at the beginning of September [29]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation * Basis Structure - The European route of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Settlement Index (SCFIS) continued to decline, with the decline rate increasing to 8.71%. The basis between the main contract EC2510 and the spot market narrowed compared to the previous week. Traders can short the basis at an appropriate time [29]. * Monthly Spread Structure - The spreads of the inter - period contract combinations for European routes in container shipping (EC2510 - 2512, EC2510 - 2602, EC2512 - 2602) have converged. Traders can stay on the sidelines for now [31].

南华甲醇产业链数据周报20250831： 等待好转 戴一帆（Z0015428）张博（F03100606） 甲醇区域现货流通概括 2 周度产业链价格总览： | | | | | 期货 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 令日 | 上周 | 周涨跌 | 上月 | 月涨跌 | 价差 | 今日 | 上周 | 周涨跌 | 上月 | 月涨跌 | | 01合约 2370 | 2410 | -40 | 2507 | -137 | 1-5价差 | -8 | 27 | +35 | ୧୧ | -73 | | 05合约 2378 | 2383 | -5 | 2442 | -64 | 5-9价差 | 164 | 81 | r 83 | 25 | 139 | | 09合约 2214 | 2302 | -88 | 2417 | -203 | 9-1价差 | -156 | -108 | -48 | -90 | -66 | | | | | | 国内市场 | | | | | | | | 令日 | 上周 | 周涨 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core View of the Report - The report suggests paying attention to the 15 reverse spread opportunity in the urea market. The current domestic supply - demand situation of urea remains weak, but there are positive expectations after the parade and due to the Indian tender. The second - batch of urea exports will support the demand side, and there may be a phased rebound. However, the agricultural demand is weakening, and the fundamentals will continue to face pressure in the second half of the year. The 01 contract of urea is expected to fluctuate between 1650 and 1850 [2][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply - Some enterprises such as Shaanxi Aowei Qianyuan Chemical, Henan Jinkai Chemical, and Hulunbuir Jinxin Chemical carried out maintenance this period. Enterprises that resumed production include Shaanxi Shanhua Coal Chemical, Henan Jinkai Chemical, and Jingyuan Coal Industry Group. The daily urea output next week will be around 200,000 tons [4]. Inventory - As of August 27, 2025, the inventory of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1085,800 tons, an increase of 61,900 tons from last week, a 6.05% increase month - on - month. The total inventory at Chinese ports was 600,000 tons, an increase of 99,000 tons month - on - month, a 19.76% increase [4]. Demand - Domestic demand remains weak. The agricultural top - dressing demand in the northern region has basically ended. The compound fertilizer industry has a large sales pressure on finished products recently, with a low operating rate, limited demand for urea raw materials, and low acceptance of high - priced urea supplies [4]. Spot - On Sunday this week, the price in Shandong was 1660 (01 basis - 86), and in Henan was 1670 (01 basis - 76) [5]. Strategy - The short - term supply - demand weakness persists, but there are positive expectations. Pay attention to the 15 reverse spread opportunity during the Indian tender on September 2. In the medium term, the second - batch of exports will support demand, and there may be a phased rebound. However, the agricultural demand is weakening, and the 01 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1650 and 1850 [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market funds are like a seesaw, shifting from the anti - involution logic to the industrial supply - demand logic. The 2601 contract faces a large discount and high industrial inventory. Before the implementation of specific anti - involution policies, the market focus has switched to the industrial supply - demand logic. Recently, domestic agricultural products have continued to decline, with low valuations and record - high positions, indicating intense capital games [3][5]. - In terms of specific sector varieties, building materials are bearish, and feed is bullish [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Week - long Market Conditions - Last week's overall market was weak, with anti - involution and energy - chemical varieties showing a downward trend. As the 2509 contract entered the delivery month, the delivery price provided a benchmark, and the next main contract will compete around this price. The current contradiction is the large basis discount and the lack of a clear implementation path for specific anti - involution industrial policies. Before the implementation of expected policies, the 2601 contract of anti - involution varieties will still trade based on the logic of basis regression. Glass, soda ash, coking coal and other varieties have a short - term bearish and long - term bullish outlook. Short - term bearishness is due to the actual supply - demand logic of the industrial end, while long - term bullishness is supported by anti - involution at the bottom. Once demand shows signs of improvement, the overall valuation of industrial products will significantly increase [4]. - Exchange measures such as position limits and fee increases have led to large - scale capital outflows from anti - involution varieties. The pre - condition for large funds to participate in a variety is sufficient trading volume and open interest for smooth entry and exit. When the liquidity of a variety begins to shrink, large funds will choose to partially exit to avoid liquidity risks, causing price adjustments [4]. Capital Flow and Market Logic - Capital has gradually flowed out of black and oil - seed varieties, and the soybean - palm oil spread has rebounded. From the perspective of the term structure, the reverse - spread structure of glass, soda ash and other varieties has exerted significant selling pressure on the 2601 contract. The industrial supply - demand logic and basis are suppressing price rebounds. Without signs of improvement in demand, even with anti - involution expectations, funds are hesitant to take action. Therefore, the industrial - end logic may dominate in the future [5]. Data Tables - **Plate Capital Flow**: The total capital flow was - 7.401 billion yuan. Among them, precious metals had a capital outflow of 322 million yuan, non - ferrous metals had an inflow of 952 million yuan, black metals had an inflow of 166 million yuan, energy had an outflow of 663 million yuan, chemicals had an inflow of 156 million yuan, feed and breeding had an outflow of 257 million yuan, oil - seeds had an outflow of 2.855 billion yuan, and soft commodities had an inflow of 692 million yuan [9]. - **Black and Non - ferrous Metals Weekly Data**: The data includes price percentile, inventory percentile, valuation percentile, position percentile, position - difference percentile, and annualized basis for various black and non - ferrous metal varieties such as iron ore, rebar, and copper [9]. - **Energy - Chemical Weekly Data**: Similar to the above, it provides data for energy - chemical varieties like fuel oil, low - sulfur oil, and asphalt [11]. - **Agricultural Products Weekly Data**: It shows data for agricultural products such as soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybean oil [12].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The asphalt market shows no better - than - expected performance during the peak season. In the short term, it mainly follows cost fluctuations. The supply side remains stable, while the demand side is affected by rainfall and capital shortages, with the overall fundamentals weakening month - on - month. In the medium - to - long term, demand is expected to improve as construction conditions get better in autumn, but there will still be a lot of rainfall in stages. The reform of consumption tax in Shandong has not been further expanded, so South China remains the low - price area for asphalt due to crude oil quotas and consumption tax restrictions [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Price and Volatility - The price range forecast for the asphalt main contract in the next month is 3400 - 3750 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 22.30% and a historical percentile of 8.95% over the past three years [1]. - As of August 29, 2025, the Shandong spot price was 3510 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, down 10 yuan/ton from a week ago), the Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3700 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, down 20 yuan/ton from a week ago), the North China spot price was 3650 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan/ton from the previous day, unchanged from a week ago), and the South China spot price was 3500 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous day, up 20 yuan/ton from a week ago) [7]. 3.2. Risk Management Strategy - For inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, enterprises with long spot positions can short sell the bu2512 asphalt futures contract at a hedging ratio of 25% in the range of 3650 - 3750 yuan/ton to lock in profits and make up for production costs [1]. - For procurement management, when the regular inventory for procurement is low and enterprises want to purchase according to orders, those with short spot positions can buy the bu2512 asphalt futures contract at a hedging ratio of 50% in the range of 3300 - 3400 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs in advance [1]. 3.3. Core Contradictions - Supply side: Stable [2]. - Demand side: Affected by rainfall and capital shortages, demand cannot be effectively released, with weak performance during the peak season. However, it is expected to improve in the medium - to - long term as construction conditions get better in autumn [2]. - Cost side: After the meeting between US and Russian leaders and OPEC's production increase, the tight supply expectation of asphalt cost has been alleviated [2]. 3.4. Factors Affecting Prices - Bullish factors: Small pressure on asphalt factory warehouses, seasonal peak demand, low start - up rate with catch - up construction expectations in the South, and strong expectations of over - capacity reduction [6]. - Bearish factors: An increase in the arrival of Ma Rui crude oil, the short - term drag on demand by the rainy season in the South, a slowdown in social inventory destocking and weakening basis, and the potential increase in the start - up rate driven by the consumption tax reform in Shandong [6].

Report Summary 1. Core View - The weather in the late growth stage of US soybeans has turned slightly dry, and the market's sensitivity to the weather has gradually recovered. In the short term, Sino-US talks have increased the expectation of a rebound in US soybeans. The domestic soybean system has weakened due to Sino-US talks in the short term, and attention should be paid to whether the supply-demand gap in the far - month can open up the upward space. The domestic rapeseed system also has the expectation of Sino - Canadian talks and may show weak sentiment in the short term [4]. - There is a strong bullish sentiment in the far - month due to the supply - demand gap. The Brazilian export premium supports the far - month contract price from the cost side. The Sino - Canadian tariff expectation continues to give high support to the far - month contract, but due to the recent negotiation expectation, the short - term sentiment may further suppress the market. The timing of going long needs to pay attention to the subsequent changes in warehouse receipts [5]. - The real pressure on the soybean meal side focuses on the arrival of the inventory inflection point in September. After the trading logic of the market switches to the far - month, attention should be paid to the subsequent soybean supply. The supply of imported soybean raw materials in the country continues to be at a seasonal high, the oil mill's crushing volume has slightly increased, and soybean meal continues the seasonal inventory accumulation trend. In terms of arrivals, it is expected to be 10 million tons in September, 9 million tons in October, and 8 million tons in November. Without purchasing US soybeans, the subsequent soybean arrivals are expected to face a gap after the first quarter of next year [6]. 2. Price Forecast and Strategy Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 7.8%. The monthly price range forecast for rapeseed meal is 2450 - 2750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.7% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 7.2% [3]. Hedging Strategy - For traders with high protein inventory worried about the decline in meal prices, they can short soybean meal futures according to their inventory situation to lock in profits and make up for production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 3300 - 3400 [3]. - For feed mills with low procurement inventory, they can buy soybean meal futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 2850 - 3000 [3]. - For oil mills worried about excessive imported soybeans and low soybean meal sales prices, they can short soybean meal futures according to their own situation to lock in profits and make up for production costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 3100 - 3200 [3]. 3. Market Data Futures Prices - The closing price of soybean meal 01 is 3055, up 16 (0.53%); soybean meal 05 is 2820, up 6 (0.21%); soybean meal 09 is 3022, up 33 (1.1%); rapeseed meal 01 is 2513, up 30 (1.21%); rapeseed meal 05 is 2424, up 16 (0.66%); rapeseed meal 09 is 2550, up 8 (0.31%); CBOT yellow soybeans are 1048.25, unchanged; the offshore RMB is 7.1214, down 0.0333 (-0.47%) [7][9]. Spreads - The M01 - 05 spread is 225, up 9; RM01 - 05 is 75, up 20; M05 - 09 is - 175, down 12; RM05 - 09 is - 134, down 8; M09 - 01 is - 50, up 3; RM09 - 01 is 59, down 12; the soybean meal Rizhao spot price is 3000, unchanged, and the basis is - 39, up 6; the rapeseed meal Fujian spot price is 2534, down 21, and the basis is 51, down 3; the soybean - rapeseed meal spot spread is 466, up 21, and the futures spread is 556, up 12 [10]. Import Costs and Profits - The import cost of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is 4539.2712 yuan/ton, up 445.131 yuan/day and down 0.1941 yuan/week; the import cost of Brazilian soybeans is 3973.63 yuan/ton, down 2.21 yuan/day and down 66.71 yuan/week; the cost difference between US Gulf (3%) and US Gulf (23%) is - 738.0929 yuan/ton, up 61.6559 yuan/day and up 57.307 yuan/week; the import profit of US Gulf soybeans (23%) is - 604.8362 yuan/ton, up 445.131 yuan/day and up 359.0468 yuan/week; the import profit of Brazilian soybeans is 120.0737 yuan/ton, down 17.0232 yuan/day and down 0.0282 yuan/week; the import profit of Canadian rapeseed on the futures market is 724 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/day and up 93 yuan/week; the import profit of Canadian rapeseed in the spot market is 815 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/day and up 121 yuan/week [11].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily risk management report on the polyester industry dated August 29, 2025 [1][3] - It focuses on ethylene glycol in the polyester industry, analyzing its supply - demand, market trends, and providing trading strategies [5] Group 2: Investment Rating - There is no report industry investment rating mentioned in the content Group 3: Core Viewpoint - Ethylene glycol has no obvious fundamental drivers currently. In the short - term, commodity sentiment is expected to face a correction during the policy vacuum period. However, due to low inventory, neutral valuation, and inelastic supply, it is expected to maintain an upward - biased trend, oscillating between 4350 - 4550. Trading strategy is to go long on dips within the range, and for the medium - to - long - term, observe the peak season performance of downstream polyester. Long positions can be combined with selling near - month out - of - the - money call options for covered call operations [5] Group 4: Polyester Price and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for ethylene glycol is 4300 - 4700, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.09% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 1.4%; for PX it is 6500 - 7400, with a volatility of 11.78% and a percentile of 17.7%; for PTA it is 4400 - 5300, with a volatility of 9.30% and a percentile of 4.6%; for bottle chips it is 5800 - 6500, with a volatility of 7.92% and a percentile of 0.9% [4] Group 5: Polyester Hedging Strategy Inventory Management - When the finished - product inventory is high and worried about the decline of ethylene glycol price, sell 25% of EG2601 futures at 4550 - 4700 to lock in profits; buy EG2510P4400 put options and sell EG2510C4600 call options, with a total hedging ratio of 50%, to prevent price drops and reduce capital costs [4] Procurement Management - When the procurement inventory is low, buy 50% of EG2601 futures at 4350 - 4450 to lock in procurement costs; sell 75% of EG2510P4400 put options to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the price drops [4] Group 6: Market Drivers Bullish Factors - South Korea's finance minister announced that South Korean petrochemical companies will cut up to 3.7 million tons of naphtha cracking capacity annually, which may impact ethylene glycol raw material supply and ethylene production costs; planned port arrivals this week are 85,100 tons, and next Monday's port inventory is expected to decrease by about 30,000 tons, tightening spot liquidity; loom load has been slightly increasing, with some autumn and winter orders starting in September and foreign trade orders recovering, which is expected to boost the load of filaments and staple fibers [8] Bearish Factors - The total supply load has risen to 73.16% (+6.77%), with ethylene - based and coal - based production loads increasing. Next week, some plants plan to overhaul while others plan to restart and increase load, and the total load is expected to continue to rise [9] Group 7: Price and Related Data Table - The table shows price data of various polyester - related products such as Brent crude oil, PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. on August 29, 2025, August 28, 2025, and August 22, 2025, including daily and weekly changes, as well as data on spreads, processing fees, and production and sales rates [12][13]