1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market shows a clear bullish trend based on multi - dimensional analysis of supply and demand factors. However, considering the recent rapid price increase, it is necessary to be vigilant about the resistance at the 90,000 yuan/ton mark and guard against potential subsequent correction risks [4]. - On the supply side, the expected increase in the number of lithium concentrate arrivals this month can ease the tight situation in the lithium ore market. The release of salt lake production capacity will continue to supplement the lithium salt supply, and the resumption speed of "Jianxiaowo" is a key variable. If its resumption progress exceeds market expectations, it will directly expand the lithium salt supply scale and potentially suppress prices [3]. - On the demand side, the current demand is strong. The prices of core battery materials such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and lithium hexafluorophosphate are rising, reflecting the market's demand for lithium carbonate. The high - production schedule in November will maintain strong demand for lithium salts, intensifying the supply - demand mismatch of lithium ore. From the perspective of national industrial policies, the demand of downstream lithium - battery material enterprises is expected to increase month - on - month by the end of the year, which may boost the spot procurement demand for lithium salts and support prices [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Data - **Price and Volume Indicators**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate main contract is 87,840 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1,260 yuan (1.46%) and a weekly increase of 7,340 yuan (9.12%). The trading volume is 1,106,011 lots, a daily decrease of 39,318 lots (-3.43%) but a weekly increase of 523,978 lots (90.03%). The open interest is 536,514 lots, a daily increase of 7,548 lots (1.43%) and a weekly increase of 64,531 lots (13.67%) [7]. - **Price Interval Forecast**: The strong support level of the lithium carbonate LC2601 contract is 73,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 34.6% and a historical percentile of 59.6% over three years [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate Term Structure and Spread**: The report also presents the term structure of lithium carbonate, as well as the seasonal spreads of LC01 - 03, LC01 - 05, and LC03 - 05 [11][12][13][14]. 3.2 Spot Data - **Lithium Ore Prices**: The average daily prices of various lithium ores are rising. For example, the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2 - 2.5%) is 2,245 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 25 yuan (1.13%) and a weekly increase of 160 yuan (7.67%) [23]. - **Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide Prices**: The prices of industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium carbonate are 82,000 yuan/ton and 84,350 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 900 yuan (1.11%) and 1,050 yuan (1.26%) [26]. - **Lithium Industry Chain Spot Spreads**: The current values of spreads such as the difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide are presented, along with their daily and weekly changes [30]. 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - **Basis Data**: The report shows the basis of the lithium carbonate main - continuous contract and the basis quotes of different lithium carbonate brands [34][36]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The total number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts is 27,508 lots, a decrease of 779 lots from the previous day. The warehouse receipt quantities of different warehouses and sub - warehouses are also provided [39]. 3.4 Cost and Profit - **Production and Import Profits**: The report presents the production profits of lithium carbonate from外购 lithium ore (lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica concentrate), as well as the import profit and theoretical delivery profit of lithium carbonate [41][43]. 3.5 Lithium - Battery Enterprise Risk Management Strategies - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises planning to produce battery materials in the future and worried about rising lithium carbonate prices, strategies include buying far - month futures contracts (40% recommended hedging ratio), selling put options (LC2601 - P - 73000, 20% recommended hedging ratio), and using option combination strategies (20% recommended hedging ratio) [2]. - **Sales Management**: For enterprises planning to produce lithium carbonate and worried about price drops, strategies include selling futures contracts and using option combination strategies, with recommended hedging ratios ranging from 10% - 20% [2]. - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high lithium carbonate inventories and worried about price drops, strategies include selling futures contracts and relevant options, with recommended hedging ratios of 10% - 20% [2].

南华宏观专题 —— 美国2026年中期选举的"驴象之争"（上篇） 周骥 （投资咨询证号：Z0017101） 联系邮件：zhouji@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年11月13日 关键词：美国政治、选举、2026年中期选举 风险提示：2026年美国中期选举爆发黑天鹅事件 正文 一、美国中期选举机制详解 1.1 中期选举的定义与核心特征 1. 中期选举的基本概念 美国中期选举是美国政治体系中一项至关重要的周期性选举活动，其核心定义是在总统四年任期中间进 行的全国性选举。这一选举制度的设计，旨在通过定期的民意反馈，对联邦政府及地方政府的权力进行制衡 与调整，确保政府的政策方向与选民的意愿保持一致。进一步来看，美国中期选举的法律依据源于1787年 《宪法》第一条对国会选举周期的规定。根据定义，中期选举每四年举行一次，与总统大选相隔两年，因此 得名"中期"。其主要内容是改选美国国会的部分席位，具体包括众议院的全部席位和参议院约三分之一的 . .. 席位。此外，许多州和地方行政区也会在此期间同步举行州长、州议员及其他地方官员的选举。中期选举的 实质是民主党和共和党两大主要政 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Iron Ore Risk Management Report - Report Date: November 13, 2025 Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The prices of iron ore and coking coal have formed a seesaw effect again. The sharp decline in coking coal prices provides room for the rebound of iron ore prices. In the short term, the iron ore price may be repaired, and the decline rate may slow down. However, the overall supply is still excessive, and the inventory at ports continues to accumulate. In general, the short - term price tends to fluctuate with no significant driving force [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Forecast - The price forecast range for the iron ore 12 - contract in November is 770 - 826, with the current at - the - money option IV at 18.54% and the historical volatility quantile at 11.3% [2] Risk Management Strategy Inventory Management - For those with current iron ore inventory worried about future price drops (long risk exposure), the strategies are: directly shorting iron ore futures (I2512) to lock in profits with a hedging ratio of 25% and an advised entry range of 820 - 830; selling call options (I2512 - C - 830) to collect premiums with a hedging ratio of 30% and selling at high prices [2] Procurement Management - For those who need to purchase iron ore in the future and are worried about price increases (short risk exposure), the strategies are: directly going long on iron ore futures (I2512) to lock in costs with a hedging ratio of 30% and an advised entry range of 780 - 790; selling out - of - the - money put options (I2511 - P - 780), holding long futures positions if the price falls below the strike price, with a hedging ratio of 40% and selling at high prices [2] Core Contradictions - The prices of iron ore and coking coal form a seesaw effect. The sharp decline in coking coal prices provides room for iron ore price rebound. The short - term price may be repaired due to reduced iron ore shipments, improved steel mill profits, weakened coking coal suppression, and a previously high basis. However, the downstream steel market has weak supply and demand, and the high - inventory problem persists. The overall supply is excessive, and the port inventory accumulation trend remains unchanged. There is a short - term structural shortage of iron ore, and the deliverable inventory is low, resulting in a continuously rising basis despite inventory accumulation [3] Influencing Factors Bullish Factors - The basis is rising, and in the medium - to - long - term, both overseas monetary and fiscal policies are loose [4] Bearish Factors - The macro - economy is weakening marginally, with the PMI in China and the US declining month - on - month; iron ore shipments remain at a seasonal high, and port inventory is accumulating above the seasonal level; hot - rolled coil inventory is continuously accumulating above the seasonal level, with production still at a high level and overall demand lacking momentum; steel mills are reducing production but not completely, and the demand for plates is still high; the strength of coking coal squeezes the space for iron ore [4][5][7] Price Data Futures Closing Prices and Basis - On November 13, 2025, the closing prices of the 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 772.5, 745.5, and 723 respectively, with daily changes of - 1.5, - 2, and - 1.5, and weekly changes of - 5, - 10.5, and - 12 respectively. The 01, 05, and 09 bases were 6, 32.5, and 55.5 respectively, with daily changes of - 4, - 4, and - 4, and weekly changes of - 1.5, 3.5, and 5.5 respectively [6] Spot Prices - On November 13, 2025, the prices of Rizhao PB powder and Rizhao Carajás fines were 780 and 880 respectively, with daily changes of - 4 and - 4, and weekly changes of - 5 and - 13 respectively [6] Platts Index - On November 12, 2025, the Platts 58%, 62%, and 65% indexes were 92.45, 103.6, and 115.6 respectively, with daily changes of 1, 1.25, and 1.1, and weekly changes of - 1, - 1.3, and - 1.8 respectively [8] Fundamental Data - As of November 7, 2025, the daily average pig iron output was 234.22, a weekly decrease of 2.14 and a monthly decrease of 7.32; the 45 - port deshipping volume was 320.93, a weekly increase of 0.77 and a monthly decrease of 6.07; the apparent demand for five major steel products was 867, a weekly decrease of 49 and a monthly increase of 116; the global shipping volume was 3069, a weekly decrease of 144.8 and a monthly decrease of 138.5; the Australia - Brazil shipping volume was 2443.3, a weekly decrease of 240.2 and a monthly decrease of 223.2; the 45 - port arrival volume was 2741.2, a weekly decrease of 477.2 and a monthly decrease of 304.6; the 45 - port inventory was 14898.83, a weekly increase of 356.35 and a monthly increase of 874.33; the inventory of 247 steel mills was 9009.94, a weekly increase of 160.08 and a monthly decrease of 36.25; the available days for 247 steel mills were 31.21, a weekly increase of 0.86 and a monthly increase of 0.97 [16]

徐晨曦（投资咨询证号：Z0001908） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290 观点：关注央行政策操作 盘面点评： 周四期债全线收跌，中长期品种低开低走，短期品种震荡。资金面回归宽松，DR001回落至1.32%。公开市 场逆回购1900亿，净投放972亿。 国债期货日报 2025/11/13 TF主力合约基差与IRR source： wind,南华研究 元 TF基差：主连 TF IRR：主连(右轴) ％ 02/28 04/30 06/30 08/31 10/31 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 -1 0 1 2 3 TS主力合约基差与IRR source： -0.5 -0.25 0 0.25 0.5 wind,南华研究 元 TS基差：主连 TS IRR：主连(右轴) ％ 02/28 04/30 06/30 08/31 10/31 -1 0 1 2 3 长债与超长债利率走势 source： wind,南华研究 % 10Y国债到期收益率 30Y国债到期收益率 02/28 04/30 06/30 08/31 10/31 1.5 1.75 2 2.25 国债利差 source： wind,南华研究 bp 国债 ...

市场回顾 今日股指集体收涨，以沪深300指数为例，收盘上涨1.21%。从资金面来看，两市成交额回升969.28亿元。期 指均缩量上涨。 重要资讯 股指期货日报 2025年11月13日 廖臣悦(投资咨询证号：Z0022951) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 放量上涨但持续性有待观察，关注明日国内经济数据公布情况 1. 证监会副主席李明：坚决防止市场大起大落、急涨急跌。 2. 特朗普签署临时拨款法案，美政府结束"停摆"。 核心观点 临时拨款法案通过，美国政府结束为期43天的停摆，提振市场情绪，今日股指放量走强。不过我们认为单纯 情绪面驱动难有较强持续性，同时从期指基差来看，今日IF、IH、IC合约成交量加权平均基差均回落，IM成 交量加权平均基差虽持续回升，但当季、下季合约基差贴水加深，持仓量下跌，表明整体多头离场意愿增 强，可见市场情绪并没有完全好转。关注明天将公布的国内经济数据，若整体向好，进一步强化经济修复逻 辑，提振盈利预期，将推动股指从"震荡筑底"向"估值修复"过渡；若无明显亮点，维持弱复苏态势，预 计股指将延续震荡格局。 策略推荐 持仓观望 股指日报期指市场观察 | | IF | ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - In the medium - to long - term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price of precious metals. In the short - term, precious metals are strengthening. London gold's resistance has moved up to 4200, and if broken, it may retest the previous high of 4380. Its support is at 4120. Silver has skyrocketed due to the slow transfer of the COMEX 2512 main contract, with a resistance level moved up to 54.5, support at 51, and strong support at 49.5 - 50 [5]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Market Quotes Review** - On Wednesday, precious metal prices rose strongly due to the expected passage of the US temporary spending bill and the Fed's internal personnel adjustment favoring loose - money expectations. However, the possible absence of the US October CPI and non - farm payroll reports restricts the Fed's possibility of cutting interest rates at the December FOMC meeting. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $4201.4 per ounce, up 2.07%; COMEX silver 2512 contract closed at $53.23 per ounce, up 4.9%. SHFE gold 2512 main contract closed at 945.76 yuan per gram, up 0.16%; SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 12073 yuan per kilogram, up 2.02% [2]. **Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings** - Interest rate cut expectations have slightly rebounded. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged on December 11 is 40.6%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 59.4%. For January 29, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 23.5%, a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 51.5%, and a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 25%. For March 19, the probability of unchanged rates is 13.4%, a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 39.4%, and a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 36.4%. SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 0.28 tons to 1046.64 tons, while iShares Silver ETF holdings remained at 15088.63 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 8.8 tons to 583.1 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 7.9 tons to 822.4 tons as of the week ending November 7 [3]. **This Week's Focus** - In terms of data, focus on the US CPI report on Thursday evening. Regarding events, on Friday at 01:15, 2025 FOMC voter and St. Louis Fed President Musalem will speak on monetary policy; at 01:20, 2026 FOMC voter and Cleveland Fed President Hammack will participate in a fireside chat; at 23:05, 2025 FOMC voter and Kansas City Fed President Schmid will speak on economic outlook and monetary policy. On Saturday at 03:30, 2026 FOMC voter and Dallas Fed President Logan will participate in a fireside chat [4]. **Price and Inventory Data Tables** - **Precious Metal Price Table**: It shows the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE and SGX gold and silver futures, as well as the CME gold - silver ratio [6]. - **Inventory and Position Table**: It presents the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE, CME, and SGX gold and silver inventories, as well as SHFE and fund positions in gold and silver [16][18]. - **Stock - Bond - Commodity Summary Table**: It includes the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of the US dollar index, US dollar - RMB exchange rate, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil spot, LmeS copper 03, 10 - year US Treasury yield, 10 - year US real interest rate, and 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread [21].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided on industry investment ratings. Core Views - The US government shutdown is likely to end, which may boost market sentiment. The US dollar index may face downward pressure, and the USD/CNY spot exchange rate is expected to fluctuate within the range of 7.09 - 7.14 this week, showing a trend of "oscillating at the bottom with a slow downward shift" [3][4]. - Stock index futures are expected to maintain a short - term oscillating pattern, with the support from policies and the impact of the end of the US government shutdown on market sentiment [4]. - Treasury bonds are expected to continue to oscillate in the short term, and mid - term long positions can be held [5]. - In the commodity market, different varieties have different trends. For example, copper is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation; aluminum is in a high - level oscillation, while alumina is in a weak operation; zinc is in a strong - side oscillation; nickel and stainless steel have limited upward momentum; tin is expected to run strongly; lead is in a strong - side oscillation [6][7][9][10][11][17]. - In the black market, steel products are expected to oscillate within a certain range, iron ore is expected to oscillate in the short term, coking coal and coke are in an adjustment phase, and ferroalloys are expected to oscillate [19][20][21][23]. - In the energy and chemical market, crude oil is expected to oscillate within the range of 60 - 65 dollars per barrel in the medium and short term; LPG is affected by the decline of crude oil; PTA - PX is expected to oscillate strongly with the cost side; methanol 01 may continue to decline to find support; PP and PE are in a bottom - side and low - level oscillation respectively; pure benzene and styrene have limited upward momentum; glass, soda ash, and caustic soda are in a low - level game with a weak expectation [25][26][29][32][35][37][38]. - In the agricultural product market, pigs are waiting for the bottom - building; oilseeds are waiting for the USDA report; oils and fats are in a short - term oscillation; soybeans are in a high - level oscillation; corn and starch are in a bottom - side oscillation; cotton is running strongly in the short term; sugar is concerned about the 5500 level; eggs are generally bearish in the long term; apples are running strongly [47][49][50][52][53][54][56][58][59]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - Domestic price index rebounds marginally, driven by low - base effect and anti - involution. Boosting domestic demand may be an important policy direction. Overseas, the focus is on liquidity tension, US government shutdown, and US dollar index rebound. The US government shutdown may end, and the labor market is cooling [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - The USD/CNY spot exchange rate is expected to fluctuate within 7.09 - 7.14 this week, showing a trend of "oscillating at the bottom with a slow downward shift", but the possibility of a sharp unilateral depreciation of the US dollar against the RMB in the short term is low [4]. Stock Index - The stock index oscillated yesterday, with the trading volume of the two markets shrinking. The long - position entry willingness increased, and the index is expected to maintain a short - term oscillating pattern [4]. Treasury Bonds - The bond market oscillated yesterday. The central bank will maintain a suitable monetary and financial environment, but the market is expected to oscillate before the central bank releases new signals. Mid - term long positions can be held [5]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The spot market procurement sentiment slightly improved, and the futures price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation within the range of 86000 - 87000 [6][7]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is affected by funds, and the short - term chasing of high prices needs to be cautious; alumina is recommended to be short - sold at high prices; cast aluminum alloy can be considered for a long - short strategy based on the price difference with aluminum [7][8][9]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price is in a high - level narrow - range oscillation. The smelting end may reduce production in November, and the inventory may decrease. It is expected to have an upward drive [9]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The demand is weak in the off - season, the cost support is loosening, and the upward momentum is limited [10]. - **Tin**: The supply is weaker than the demand, and it is expected to run strongly, with a support level around 276,000 yuan [11][12]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: It is in a long - short game, with a short - term view of oscillating strongly, but the risk of a callback needs to be vigilant [12][13]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: They are expected to have a wide - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and policies [14][15]. - **Lead**: The lead price is pulled up by long - position funds, and it is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [17]. Black Metals - **Steel Products**: Steel products are in a weak oscillation. The supply - demand balance of rebar has marginally improved, while the coil plate has high inventory and production. The cost of raw materials provides support, but the inventory suppresses the upward drive [19]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price may have a short - term repair space, but the overall supply is still abundant, and the port inventory is in an accumulating trend [19][20]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They are in an adjustment phase. The short - term price may face pressure, but the medium - and long - term price decline space is limited, and they are suitable for long - position allocation [21][22]. - **Ferroalloys**: They are affected by high inventory and weak demand, but are supported by the cost side, and are expected to oscillate [23][24]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The crude oil price dropped sharply overnight and is expected to oscillate within the range of 60 - 65 dollars per barrel in the medium and short term, with further downward space [25][26]. - **LPG**: It is affected by the decline of crude oil, and the domestic supply and demand situation has little change [26][27][28]. - **PTA - PX**: Affected by "anti - involution" rumors and demand, the price is expected to oscillate strongly with the cost side, but the excess expectation of PTA still exists [29][30][31]. - **Methanol**: Methanol 01 may continue to decline to find support, and it is recommended to hold the previous short - call options and carry out a 12 - 1 reverse spread [32][33]. - **PP**: It is in a bottom - side oscillation, with the supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remaining unchanged, and the upward drive being limited [34][35]. - **PE**: It is in a low - level oscillation, with the supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand being difficult to change in the short term [36][37]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The upward momentum of pure benzene and styrene is limited, and the market is biased towards a bearish sentiment [38]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: They are in a low - level game with a weak expectation. Soda ash has cost support but limited upward elasticity; glass has a cold - repair expectation; caustic soda has an increasing market pressure [38][39][41]. Agricultural Products - **Pigs**: They are waiting for the bottom - building. The long - term can be bullish strategically, but the short - term is still based on fundamentals [47][48]. - **Oilseeds**: Attention should be paid to the USDA report. The outer - market soybean price is expected to oscillate with a slightly upward shift, and the inner - market soybean meal and rapeseed meal have different trends [49][50]. - **Oils and Fats**: They are in a short - term oscillation, lacking a clear drive [50]. - **Soybeans**: They are in a high - level oscillation, with the price being in a stalemate and the purchase by the state reserve limiting the downward space [51][52]. - **Corn and Starch**: The price is driven by the reduction of supply, and they are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [52][53]. - **Cotton**: It is running strongly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the USDA report [53][54]. - **Sugar**: Attention should be paid to the 5500 level, affected by factors such as production and export [56][57]. - **Eggs**: They are generally bearish in the long term, with the production capacity facing a turning point [58]. - **Apples**: They are running strongly, with the inventory lower than last year and the market trading actively [58][59][60].

Report Summary 1. Index Performance - According to the closing prices of adjacent trading days, the Nanhua Composite Index rose 0.63% today. Based on the night - session prices of adjacent trading days, it rose 0.83% [1][4]. - Among the sector indices, all sectors increased. The Nanhua Energy and Chemical Index had the largest increase of 0.75% (or 90.00% based on night - session prices), and the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index had the smallest increase of 0.07% [1][4]. - Among the theme indices, only the Economic Crops Index fell by - 0.29%. The rest of the theme indices rose. The Energy Index had the largest increase of 1.22%, and the Oilseeds and Oils Index had the smallest increase of 0.23% [1][4]. - Among the commodity futures single - variety indices, the Butadiene Rubber Index had the largest increase of 1.86%, and the Egg Index had the largest decrease of - 1.51% [1]. 2. Other Information - The calculation method of the price change in the report is the ratio of today's closing price to yesterday's closing price. The Nanhua Commodity Index excludes the spread during the contract roll - over and reflects the real return of investing in the commodity system [9]. - The contribution calculation method used in the report is a certain variety's daily price change / Σ (each variety's daily price change). Yellow data bars represent rising varieties, and blue data bars represent falling varieties [9].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is the Nanhua Futures Asphalt Risk Management Daily Report dated November 12, 2025 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The overall supply of asphalt is decreasing due to refinery maintenance and suspension of production by some major refineries, but the resumption of production by Shengxing Chemical and the planned resumption of Jincheng Petrochemical will increase market supply. The demand is weak, mainly consuming social inventory, and the short - term peak season shows no unexpected performance. The cost - end crude oil is weakly volatile, and the spot basis is continuously weakening. In the short term, asphalt is expected to remain weak, and attention should be paid to trading rhythm. Long - term demand in the north will end with the drop in temperature, while the south may see increased consumption due to catch - up work [3] Group 4: Price and Strategy Price Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for the asphalt main contract is 3000 - 3450 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.99% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 20.42% [2] Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, to prevent losses from inventory price drops, they can short asphalt futures (bu2512) at a 25% hedging ratio with an entry range of 3650 - 3750 yuan/ton, and sell call options (bu2512C3500) at a 20% hedging ratio with an entry range of 30 - 40 [2] - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low standing inventory for procurement, to prevent cost increases from price hikes, they can buy asphalt futures (bu2512) at a 50% hedging ratio with an entry range of 3300 - 3400 yuan/ton, and sell put options (bu2512C3500) at a 20% hedging ratio with an entry range of 25 - 35 [2] Group 5: Market Influencing Factors Positive Factors - No positive factors are clearly mentioned in the report Negative Factors - The asphalt consumption enters the off - season, and demand is under pressure. Shengxing Chemical has resumed production, and Jincheng Petrochemical has a production resumption plan [8] Group 6: Price and Basis Data Spot Price - The Shandong spot price on November 12, 2025, was 3020 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 20 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 120 yuan/ton. The Yangtze River Delta spot price was 3340 yuan/ton, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The North China spot price was 3030 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 20 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 150 yuan/ton. The South China spot price was 3300 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 40 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 130 yuan/ton [9] Basis and Crack Spread - The Shandong spot 12 - contract basis was - 43 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 15 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 61 yuan/ton. The Shandong spot to Brent crack spread was 59.8899 yuan/barrel, with a daily increase of 3.4658 yuan/barrel and a weekly decrease of 31.0984 yuan/barrel [9]

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Paper Industry Risk Management Daily [1] - Date: November 12, 2025 [1] Group 2: Price Forecast and Risk Management Price Forecast - Paper pulp price range (monthly): 4750 - 5600, current volatility: 9.14%, current volatility historical percentile (3 years): 5.86% [2] - Offset printing paper price range (monthly): 4150 - 4350, current volatility: 8.72%, current volatility historical percentile (3 years): 50.00% [2] Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - For high inventory, sell pulp/offset printing paper futures (SP2601 at 5500 - 5600, OP2601 at 4350 - 4400) and sell call options (SP2601C5300, OP2601C4400) [2] Procurement Management - For low inventory, buy pulp/offset printing paper futures (SP2601 at 5150 - 5250, OP2601 at 4100 - 4150) and sell put options (SP2512P4850, OP2601P4050) [2] Group 3: Core Contradictions and Market Analysis Paper Pulp - Futures and spot prices: Futures show high - level oscillation, spot price is stable [3] - Supply - demand factors: Supply pressure reduces due to Maine pulp mill's temporary shutdown; demand is relatively negative in the short - term but overall demand recovers; port inventory is high, and its support is limited [3] Offset Printing Paper - Futures and spot prices: Spot price is stable after previous increases, futures price oscillates at a relatively high level [3] - Supply - demand factors: Market is in the cost - support stage, paper enterprises issued price - increase letters, but spot demand is weak, and the shutdown events have little impact [3] - Short - term trend: Both pulp and offset printing paper are expected to oscillate with a slightly downward central price [3] Group 4: Strategies Paper Pulp - Futures: Short - term, short at high prices and focus on 12 - 01 backwardation [5] - Options: Temporarily wait and see [5] Offset Printing Paper - Futures: Short - term, short at high prices [5] - Options: Temporarily wait and see [6] Group 5: Market Factors Bullish Factors - Paper enterprises and pulp mills raise quotes [10] - Tariffs on the US remain [10] - US Magnolia pulp mill's temporary shutdown [10] Bearish Factors - Overseas shipping costs may decrease [10] - High - level port inventory is difficult to deplete [10] - Four major paper enterprises issued shutdown announcements [10] Group 6: Price and Inventory Data Price Data - Pulp and offset printing paper futures prices, price differences, and their daily and weekly changes [13] - Pulp and double - offset paper spot prices, regional price differences, and their daily and weekly changes [14] Inventory Data - Pulp inventory in China (weekly) [11] - Pulp inventory warehouse receipts [15] Group 7: Basis Data - Pulp basis daily changes and seasonal data [8][9] - Offset printing paper basis daily changes [8]