Report Overview - Report Date: August 15, 2025 [1] - Report Title: Stock Index Daily Report - Stock Index Futures Daily Report [1] - Analyst: Wang Ying (Z0016367) [1] - Investment Advisory License: China Securities Regulatory Commission Permit [2011] No. 1290 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided 2. Core View - The stock market performed more optimistically than expected today, driven by fundamental confidence and high trading enthusiasm. Concept stocks boosted by favorable information led the market, with non - bank finance and technology - related industries leading the gains. Small - cap stocks showed strong performance due to positive sentiment and high - spirited funds. Looking ahead, the breakthrough of the pressure line should be monitored. Despite the optimistic sentiment today, it is not recommended to chase the market at present, and it is advisable to hold positions and observe. An insurance strategy of holding spot and buying put options is recommended [4] 3. Summary by Directory Market Review - The stock index rose with shrinking volume today, and the market index attempted to reach new highs again. The trading volume of the two markets dropped significantly by 345.97 billion yuan. Among stock index futures, IF and IH rose with shrinking volume, while IC and IM rose with expanding volume [2] Important Information - An important article by General Secretary Xi Jinping, "Promoting the Healthy and High - Quality Development of the Private Economy," was published in Qiushi Journal. China's year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales in July slowed to 3.7%, and the year - on - year total retail sales of automobiles declined. From January to July, China's real estate development investment decreased by 12% year - on - year, and the sales area of newly built commercial housing decreased by 4% year - on - year. In July, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.7% year - on - year, and the production of crude steel and raw coal declined. From January to July, China's national fixed - asset investment increased by 1.6%, while private investment declined. In July, the prices of second - hand houses in first - tier cities showed wider month - on - month and year - on - year declines, and the year - on - year declines in housing prices in all tiers narrowed. Relevant national departments are researching and formulating policies and measures for the development of the marine industry and actively exploring ways to encourage central enterprises and social capital to participate in the development of the marine economy [3] Strategy Recommendation - Insurance Strategy: Hold spot and buy put options [4] Stock Index Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main Contract Intraday Change (%) | 0.80 | 0.34 | 2.11 | 2.16 | | Trading Volume (10,000 lots) | 14.0755 | 7.7296 | 12.2047 | 25.7577 | | Trading Volume MoM (10,000 lots) | - 1.2994 | - 0.9794 | 0.9901 | - 0.8154 | | Open Interest (10,000 lots) | 26.8828 | 10.4541 | 22.8854 | 38.1845 | | Open Interest MoM (10,000 lots) | - 0.3048 | - 0.0183 | 1.3297 | 1.6552 | [4] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index Change (%) | 0.83 | | Shenzhen Component Index Change (%) | 1.60 | | Ratio of Rising to Falling Stocks | 6.85 | | Trading Volume of the Two Markets (billion yuan) | 22446.12 | | Trading Volume MoM (billion yuan) | - 345.97 | [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From August 11th to 14th, the BDTI crude oil freight rate index closed at 1019 points, up 1.19% week-on-week (with narrowing growth) and 12.72% year-on-year (with expanding growth). The increase in the number of crude oil vessels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden regions continued to boost the BDTI index, but the decline in demand for VLCC tankers and the decrease in shipping distances limited the index's growth [2]. - As of August 8th, the shipping volume showed a pattern of "two increases and two decreases." The shipping volumes of the US and Russia increased by 11.69% and 18.95% respectively, while those of Saudi Arabia and the UAE decreased by 5.14% and 20.83% respectively [2]. - Attention should be paid to important events such as OPEC+ crude oil production increase, US tariff policies, and the Fed's interest rate cut expectations [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs BDTI Crude Oil Freight Rate Index Trend - As of August 14, 2025, the BDTI crude oil freight rate index closed at 1019 points, up 1.19% week-on-week and 12.72% year-on-year. The growth rate of the freight rate narrowed seasonally [2]. Tanker Shipping Distance - In the 30th week of 2025 (as of August 1st), the shipping distances of VLCC, Suezmax, and Aframax tankers all decreased week-on-week. The Suezmax tankers had the largest week-on-week decrease, but the rate of decrease slowed compared to the previous week. Compared with the same period last year, the VLCC tankers had the largest decrease in shipping distance [4]. - From August 9th to 13th, the total tanker traffic in the Red Sea increased significantly, with an average of 813 tankers passing through per day, an increase of 20 from the previous week. The number of crude oil tankers increased by 41, while the number of product tankers decreased by 18. Among the crude oil tankers, the number of VLCCs remained unchanged, the number of Suezmax tankers increased by 21, and the number of Aframax tankers increased by 23 [6]. - In the Gulf of Aden, the tanker traffic increased slightly, reaching 154 tankers, an increase of 6 from the previous week. The number of crude oil tankers increased by 7, while the number of product tankers decreased by 2. Among the crude oil tankers, the number of VLCCs increased by 2, the number of Suezmax tankers increased by 3, and the number of Aframax tankers decreased by 2 [6]. Tanker Capacity - As of August 8, 2025, the number of scrapped tankers was 9425, an increase of 2 week-on-week and 83 year-on-year; the number of effective vessels was 18310, an increase of 3 week-on-week and 440 year-on-year; the number of vessel deliveries was 219, an increase of 23 week-on-week and 99 year-on-year; the number of vessel orders was 1343, a decrease of 13 week-on-week and an increase of 115 year-on-year; the number of vessels under construction was 215, an increase of 3 week-on-week and 77 year-on-year [8]. - As of August 9th, the port tanker capacity of all ship types increased. Specifically, the number of VLCCs docked was 2334, an increase of 141 week-on-week; the number of Aframax tankers docked was 2736, an increase of 80 week-on-week; the number of Suezmax tankers docked was 2207, an increase of 17 week-on-week [8]. Crude Oil Shipping Data Tracking - As of August 8, 2025, the crude oil shipping volumes of the US and Russia increased week-on-week, while those of Saudi Arabia and the UAE decreased. Specifically, the US crude oil weekly shipping volume continued to rise by 11.69%; the Russian crude oil weekly shipping volume rose by 18.95%; the Saudi crude oil weekly shipping volume fell by 5.14%; the UAE crude oil weekly shipping volume continued to fall by 20.83% [10]. - In terms of shipping vessel types for US crude oil, the shipping volume continued to rise. The demand for Suezmax tankers increased significantly by 45.16% week-on-week, while the demand for VLCC and Aframax tankers decreased by 8.23% and 12.07% respectively [10]. - The Russian crude oil shipping volume increased week-on-week. The demand for Aframax tankers increased significantly by 55.99% week-on-week, while the demand for Suezmax tankers decreased by 0.42% [10]. - The Saudi crude oil shipping volume decreased week-on-week. The demand for Aframax tankers decreased the most, with the demand for VLCC and Suezmax tankers decreasing by 2.74% and 5.7% respectively [10]. - The UAE crude oil shipping volume continued to decrease. The demand for VLCC and Suezmax tankers decreased, with the demand for VLCC tankers decreasing by 13.48% and the demand for Suezmax tankers decreasing significantly by 46.87%. The demand for Aframax tankers increased by 17.13% [10]. - The total crude oil shipping volume of other countries such as Kuwait, Iraq, Iran, Algeria, and Nigeria decreased slightly, mainly due to the decline in the shipping volumes of Kuwait, Iran, and Algeria [27]. Crude Oil Arrivals - During the week, the crude oil arrivals in China, India, and the Netherlands all decreased week-on-week. The arrivals in China and the Netherlands returned to the levels of the same period last year, while the arrivals in India were lower than last year [28].

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, Zhengzhou cotton rebounded close to the previous high after the adjustment in the USDA report. There is an optimistic outlook for the new - year cotton production. As the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, the downstream market shows marginal improvement, but the current recovery is limited. The USDA's August report tightened the global new - year cotton supply - demand expectations. The low inventory of old cotton supports near - month contracts, and the short - term cotton price center may rise with the marginal improvement in the downstream. Attention should be paid to downstream stocking [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Domestic Market Supply - As of August 7, the national new cotton sales rate was 97.7%, 6.7 percentage points higher year - on - year and 8.4 percentage points higher than the average of the past four years [2]. Import - In June, China's cotton import volume was 30,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons month - on - month and 130,000 tons year - on - year; the cotton yarn import volume was 110,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons month - on - month and the same year - on - year; the cotton cloth import volume was 4,289.55 tons, a decrease of 3.44% month - on - month and 24.37% year - on - year [2]. Demand - In July, the domestic textile and clothing retail sales were 96.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 24.63% month - on - month and an increase of 1.80% year - on - year; the textile and clothing export volume was 26.766 billion US dollars, a decrease of 2.01% month - on - month and a decrease of 0.06% year - on - year [2]. Inventory - As of the end of July, the national cotton industrial and commercial inventory was 3.0882 million tons, a decrease of 644,600 tons from the end of June. The commercial inventory was 2.1898 million tons, a decrease of 640,000 tons from the end of June, and the industrial inventory was 898,400 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons from the end of June [2]. International Market US Supply - As of August 10, the cotton budding rate in the US was 93%, 2 percentage points behind year - on - year and 1 percentage point behind the five - year average; the boll - setting rate was 65%, 7 percentage points behind year - on - year and 6 percentage points behind the five - year average; the flocculation rate was 8%, 4 percentage points behind year - on - year and 2 percentage points behind the five - year average. The overall good - quality rate of cotton plants was 53%, a decrease of 2 percentage points month - on - month and an increase of 7 percentage points year - on - year [2][3]. US Demand - From August 1 to 7, the net signing of US 25/26 - year upland cotton was 54,885 tons, a significant increase month - on - month, with 41,345 tons shipped; the net signing of Pima cotton was 476 tons, with 2,722 tons shipped; the net signing of 26/27 - year upland cotton was 249 tons, and there was no signing of 26/27 - year Pima cotton [3]. Southeast Asian Supply - As of August 8, the new - year cotton sowing area in India reached 10.7 million hectares, a decrease of about 2.7% year - on - year [3]. Southeast Asian Demand - In July, Vietnam's textile and clothing export volume was 3.911 billion US dollars, an increase of 8.7% month - on - month and 5.3% year - on - year; in June, Bangladesh's clothing export volume was 2.788 billion US dollars, a decrease of 28.87% month - on - month and 6.31% year - on - year; in June, India's clothing export volume was 1.31 billion US dollars, a decrease of 13.30% month - on - month and an increase of 1.23% year - on - year; in June, Pakistan's textile and clothing export volume was 1.522 billion US dollars, a decrease of 0.60% month - on - month and an increase of 7.59% year - on - year [3]. Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton 01 contract closed at 14,120 yuan, up 320 yuan with a 2.32% increase; Zhengzhou cotton 05 contract closed at 14,090 yuan, up 340 yuan with a 2.47% increase; Zhengzhou cotton 09 contract closed at 13,835 yuan, up 195 yuan with a 1.43% increase. The CC Index 3128B was 15,216 yuan, up 38 yuan with a 0.25% increase; the CC Index 2227B was 13,335 yuan, up 26 yuan with a 0.2% increase; the CC Index 2129B was 15,486 yuan, up 28 yuan with a 0.18% increase. The FC Index M was 13,576 yuan, up 156 yuan with a 1.16% increase; the FCY Index C32s was 21,255 yuan, up 68 yuan with a 0.32% increase. The cotton yarn futures price was 20,185 yuan, up 580 yuan with a 2.96% increase, and the spot price was 20,720 yuan, up 100 yuan with a 0.48% increase [22][26].

Report Overview - Report Name: Nanhua Futures Copper Risk Management Daily Report - Date: August 15, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices declined slightly on Thursday due to the stabilization of the US dollar index and the decline of the domestic stock market, which lowered the valuation of commodities. However, the medium - term upward trend of copper prices has emerged. The recent US inflation data is favorable for the Fed to cut interest rates, which lowers the US dollar index and boosts the valuation of the entire non - ferrous metals sector. Downstream terminals are hesitant about the negative demand feedback in August caused by US tariffs, and believe that the current price has basically fulfilled the previous expectations. The previous support level of 77,000 yuan per ton can be raised to 78,000 yuan per ton. The change in the copper term structure from B to C indicates that this round of price increase is supported by the structure and may be more solid [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Copper Price and Volatility - The latest copper price is 78,950 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 73,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 11.64%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.6% [2] 3.2 Copper Risk Management Suggestions 3.2.1 Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and fear of price decline, with a long spot exposure, it is recommended to sell 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 82,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the CU2510C82000 call option when the volatility is relatively stable [2] 3.2.2 Raw Material Management - For low raw - material inventory and fear of price increase, with a short spot exposure, it is recommended to buy 75% of the Shanghai Copper main futures contract at around 77,000 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Factors Affecting Copper Prices 3.3.1 Bullish Factors - The US and other countries reach an agreement on tariff policies; increased expectations of interest rate cuts lead to a decline in the US dollar index, boosting the valuation of non - ferrous metals; the lower support level is raised [4] 3.3.2 Bearish Factors - Tariff policies are inconsistent; global demand decreases due to tariff policies; the adjustment of US copper tariff policies leads to an extremely high virtual inventory in COMEX [5] 3.4 Copper Futures and Spot Data 3.4.1 Copper Futures Data (Daily) | Futures Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Copper Main | Yuan/ton | 78,950 | 0 | 0% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous 1 | Yuan/ton | 78,950 | - 430 | - 0.54% | | Shanghai Copper Continuous 3 | Yuan/ton | 78,920 | 0 | 0% | | LME Copper 3M | US dollars/ton | 9,777 | 0 | 0% | [4] 3.4.2 Copper Spot Data (Daily) | Spot Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 Copper | Yuan/ton | 79,435 | - 40 | - 0.05% | | Shanghai Wumaotrade | Yuan/ton | 79,465 | 50 | 0.06% | | Guangdong Southern Storage | Yuan/ton | 79,390 | 120 | 0.15% | | Yangtze Non - ferrous | Yuan/ton | 79,600 | 90 | 0.11% | | Shanghai Non - ferrous Premium/Discount | Yuan/ton | 210 | 10 | 5% | | Shanghai Wumaotrade Premium/Discount | Yuan/ton | 135 | 0 | 0% | | Guangdong Southern Storage Premium/Discount | Yuan/ton | 175 | 20 | 12.9% | | Yangtze Non - ferrous Premium/Discount | Yuan/ton | 170 | 20 | 13.33% | [8] 3.5 Copper Refined - Scrap Spread - The current refined - scrap spread (tax - included) is 1,128.51 yuan/ton, with a daily change of - 53.62 yuan/ton and a daily change rate of - 4.54%. The reasonable refined - scrap spread (tax - included) is 1,493.2 yuan/ton, with a daily change of - 1.6 yuan/ton and a daily change rate of - 0.11%. The price advantage (tax - included) is - 364.69 yuan/ton, with a daily change of - 52.02 yuan/ton and a daily change rate of 16.64%. Similar data is also provided for the non - tax - included situation [11] 3.6 Copper Warehouse Receipts and Inventories 3.6.1 Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) Copper Warehouse Receipts (Daily) | Warehouse Receipt Type | Unit | Latest Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total SHFE Copper Warehouse Receipts | Tons | 24,434 | 1,634 | 7.17% | | Total International Copper Warehouse Receipts | Tons | 7,422 | 0 | 0% | | SHFE Copper Warehouse Receipts in Shanghai | Tons | 2,504 | 0 | 0% | | Total Bonded SHFE Copper Warehouse Receipts | Tons | 0 | 0 | - 100% | | Total Tax - paid SHFE Copper Warehouse Receipts | Tons | 24,434 | 1,634 | 7.17% | [13] 3.6.2 LME Copper Inventory (Daily) | Inventory Type | Unit | Latest Price | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total LME Copper Inventory | Tons | 155,850 | - 25 | - 0.02% | | LME Copper Inventory in Europe | Tons | 24,900 | - 475 | - 1.87% | | LME Copper Inventory in Asia | Tons | 130,950 | 450 | 0.34% | | LME Copper Inventory in North America | Tons | 0 | 0 | - 100% | | Total LME Copper Registered Warehouse Receipts | Tons | 144,800 | 475 | 0.33% | | Total LME Copper Cancelled Warehouse Receipts | Tons | 11,050 | - 500 | - 4.33% | [15] 3.6.3 COMEX Copper Inventory (Daily) | Inventory Type | Unit | Latest Price | Weekly Change | Weekly Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Total COMEX Copper Inventory | Tons | 266,804 | 3,508 | 1.33% | | Total COMEX Copper Registered Warehouse Receipts | Tons | 124,862 | 1,269 | - 1.99% | | Total COMEX Copper Cancelled Warehouse Receipts | Tons | 141,942 | 2,547 | 1.83% | [17] 3.7 Copper Import Profit and Processing - The copper import profit and loss is 44.55 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 119.85 yuan/ton and a daily change rate of - 159.16%. The copper concentrate TC is - 38 US dollars/ton, with no daily change [18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Policy disturbances may affect the future supply of live pigs. Although the fundamentals are still in a situation of oversupply, the policy expectations provide an opportunity for arbitrage to hedge risks [3] - There are both positive and negative factors in the live pig market. Positive factors include improved macro - sentiment, a high standard - fat price difference, and medium - to - long - term policy - driven capacity reduction expectations. Negative factors include a high inventory of sow stocks, high inventory of large - scale enterprises, high slaughter volume with losses in slaughter profits, and weak downstream consumption [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Price Forecast and Risk Management - The strong support level for the main contract price is 13,400, with a current volatility (20 - day rolling) of 10.94% and a current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) of 0.75% [2] - For inventory management when product inventory is high, strategies include shorting live pig futures (LH2511, sell 20%), selling call options (20%), and buying out - of - the - money put options [2] - For procurement management when there are future procurement plans, strategies include buying live pig forward contracts according to the procurement plan, selling put options according to the procurement plan, and buying out - of - the - money call options [2] 3.2 Pig Spot and Futures Prices - Spot prices vary by region. The national average is 13.72 yuan/kg, with a daily increase of 0.02 yuan and a growth rate of 0.15%. Prices in different regions show different changes [8] - Futures prices of different contracts (pig 01, 03, 05, 07, 09, 11) remain unchanged on the day [9] 3.3 Pig Price Spreads and Basis - Different contract spreads and basis show various changes, such as LH01 - 03 with a spread of 835 yuan, a decrease of 65 yuan, and a decline rate of 7.22% [17] - Seasonal charts of basis and spreads for different contracts are provided, including pig 01, 03, 05, 07, 09, 11 contracts [10][16][19] 3.4 Dalian Commodity Exchange Pig Warehouse Receipt Inventory - Seasonal data of Dalian Commodity Exchange pig warehouse receipt inventory is presented [27]

南华贵金属日报:美PPI超预期 降息预期回落 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年8月15日 【行情回顾】 周四贵金属市场明显调整，主要因晚间美PPI大超预期，重燃通胀担忧并削弱美联储降息预期，特别是关税问 题在通胀上显现问题，美指和美债收益率明显回升，其影响力也因其大超预期而大于CPI。周边资产看，原油 回升，比特币下跌，美股震荡，南华有色金属指数震荡调整。最终COMEX黄金2512合约收报3382.3美元/盎 司，-0.76%；美白银2509合约收报于38.035美元/盎司，-1.47%。 SHFE黄金2510主力合约778.7元/克， +0.31%；SHFE白银2510合约收9286元/千克，+0.77%。美国7月PPI同比+3.3%，选高于前值+2.3%，预 期+2.5%，为今年2月以来最高水平；美国7月PPI环比0.9%，为2022年6月以来最大涨幅，预期0.2%，前值 0%；核心PPI同比+3.7%，预期3%，前值 2.6%，为2月以来最高水平；核心PPI环比+0.9%，预期0.2%，前 值0%，为2022年4月以来最大涨幅。 【本 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Tin prices declined slightly on Thursday, fluctuating with the non - ferrous metals sector. Recently, the macro - environment has limited impact on tin prices. The repeated delay of the full resumption of tin mines in Myanmar has significantly supported tin prices and may have a continuous impact. According to Alphamin's financial report, the production cut at the Bisie tin mine has exceeded expectations, pushing up short - term tin prices. There has been no significant change in demand [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Price and Volatility - The latest closing price of tin is 267,420 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 14.36%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 26.1% [2]. - In the tin futures market, the latest prices of沪锡主力,沪锡连一 are 267,420 yuan/ton,沪锡连三 is 267,820 yuan/ton,伦锡3M is 33,435 dollars/ton (down 0.79% daily), and the沪伦比 is 8.02 (up 0.12% daily) [6]. 3.2 Risk Management Recommendations - **Inventory Management**: For high finished - product inventory and fear of price drops, it is recommended to sell 75% of the main Shanghai tin futures contracts at around 275,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2510C275000 call options when volatility is appropriate [2]. - **Raw Material Management**: For low raw - material inventory and fear of price increases, it is recommended to buy 50% of the main Shanghai tin futures contracts at around 230,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2510P245000 put options when volatility is appropriate [2]. 3.3 Factors Affecting Prices - **Likely Positive Factors**: Sino - US tariff policy easing, the semiconductor sector remaining in the expansion cycle, and the resumption of production in Myanmar falling short of expectations [7]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Repeated tariff policies, the inflow of Burmese tin ore into China, and the slowdown of the semiconductor sector's expansion and its transition from an expansion cycle to a contraction cycle [5]. 3.4 Spot and Inventory Data - **Spot Data**: The latest price of Shanghai Non - Ferrous tin ingots is 269,500 yuan/ton (up 0.86% weekly), 1 tin premium is 300 yuan/ton (down 25% weekly), 40% tin concentrate is 257,500 yuan/ton (up 0.9% weekly), 60% tin concentrate is 261,500 yuan/ton (up 0.89% weekly), etc. [12]. - **Inventory Data**: The total warehouse receipts of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 7,422 tons (down 0.11% daily), in Guangdong are 4,881 tons (down 0.49% daily), in Shanghai are 1,670 tons (up 0.97% daily), and the total LME tin inventory is 1,780 tons (up 0.85% daily) [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **Domestic Market**: Policy support in the livelihood and consumption sectors boosts market confidence, but demand recovery is gradual. The release of July economic data is crucial, and if the data weakens, incremental policies may be introduced [2]. - **Overseas Market**: The Fed's policy stance is divided, with most officials leaning hawkish. The uncertainty of a September rate cut has increased due to the unexpected PPI data. The dollar index may oscillate around 98, and the USD/CNY exchange rate is likely to stay below 7.20 [2][4]. - **Equity Market**: The market sentiment has cooled, and the possibility of a further upward trend is low due to the受挫 Fed rate - cut expectations [6]. - **Commodity Market** - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver may be bullish in the long - term but are in a short - term adjustment phase. It is advisable to buy on dips [12]. - **Base Metals**: Copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, and other base metals show different trends. Some are expected to be strong in the medium - term, while others are in a state of shock or decline [14][15][18]. - **Black Metals**: Steel prices may oscillate weakly in the short - term, but the downside is limited. Iron ore prices are expected to be range - bound, and coal and coke prices may be affected by policies and demand [28][31][35]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Crude oil prices are affected by geopolitical events, and the market is waiting for the US - Russia meeting. Other energy and chemical products such as LPG, PTA, and ethylene glycol have their own supply - demand characteristics and price trends [39][44][50]. - **Agricultural Products**: For pigs, it is advisable to short on rallies. For oilseeds and oils, there are different investment strategies such as buying on dips for far - month contracts [72][74] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: Attention should be paid to the release of July economic data. The US inflation is high, and the Fed's policy stance is divided, increasing the uncertainty of a September rate cut [1][2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The short - term trend of the dollar index is uncertain, and the USD/CNY exchange rate is likely to stay below 7.20. Key data to watch include US retail sales [4]. - **Stock Index**: The market sentiment has cooled, and the possibility of a further upward trend is low due to the受挫 Fed rate - cut expectations. An insurance strategy of holding stocks and buying put options is recommended [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market is dominated by sentiment. It is advisable not to short and to try to catch a rebound with a small position, while setting stop - losses for long positions [6]. - **Container Shipping**: The futures price is expected to oscillate, and may decline slightly in the medium - term if there are no sudden events [8]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The market adjusted due to the unexpected PPI data. The long - term outlook is bullish, but short - term adjustment is expected. It is recommended to buy on dips [10][12]. - **Copper**: The price declined slightly due to the stock market and the stable dollar index. The medium - term trend is expected to be strong, and it is advisable to make low - level purchases [13][14]. - **Aluminum**: The price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term and may rise when entering the peak season. Alumina is expected to oscillate weakly, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to oscillate [15]. - **Zinc**: The price declined due to the strengthening of the dollar index. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [16][18]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: The prices of nickel and stainless steel decreased, and the upward momentum is limited. The fundamentals provide limited support [19]. - **Tin**: The price declined slightly, following the trend of the non - ferrous metal sector. It is recommended to hold cash and wait and see [20][21]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and its downside is limited in the long - term. Polysilicon is affected by supply and demand and policy, and it is advisable to pay attention to industrial policies [22][23]. - **Lead**: The price is weak due to the dollar index and inventory accumulation. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [24][26]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The market sentiment has cooled, and the prices may oscillate weakly in the short - term, but the downside is limited [27][28]. - **Iron Ore**: The price declined due to the fall in coking coal prices. It is expected to oscillate, and the supply is neutral in the short - term [29][31]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market is affected by policies and demand. The medium - and long - term outlook is not pessimistic, but short - term risks should be noted [33][35]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy and Manganese Ferroalloy**: The prices follow the trend of coal. The short - term outlook is affected by market sentiment, and the long - term outlook is related to the real estate market and supply [36][38]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The price rose slightly overnight. The market is waiting for the US - Russia meeting, and the upside is limited due to seasonal factors [39][40]. - **LPG**: The supply is loose, and the demand has a slight improvement. The overall situation remains loose [43][44]. - **PTA - PX**: The prices follow the cost trend. PX supply may increase, and PTA processing fees are at a low level. It is advisable to expand the PTA processing fee [45][47]. - **Ethylene Glycol - Bottle Chip**: The price of ethylene glycol oscillates, and it is recommended to buy on dips. The bottle chip price follows the cost trend, and the processing fee is range - bound [49][50]. - **Methanol**: The 09 contract is weak due to port inventory accumulation. Attention should be paid to downstream resistance and port - inland price differences [51][52]. - **PP**: The supply and demand situation has little change. It mainly follows the macroscopic sentiment and coking coal price [54][55]. - **PE**: The supply and demand are increasing. The near - term supply - demand pressure is not large, but it depends on the demand recovery [56][57]. - **PVC**: It should be shorted. The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating [58][59]. - **Fuel Oil**: The high - sulfur fuel oil is weak, and the low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by crude oil and has a low - level supply and weak demand [60][61]. - **Asphalt**: The supply is stable, the demand is affected by weather and funds, and the price is weakly adjusted. The long - term demand may improve [63]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: The prices are volatile. Soda ash supply is high, glass demand and supply are in a weak balance, and caustic soda demand may improve in the peak season [64][67]. - **Paper Pulp**: The fundamentals have improved marginally. It is recommended to hold long positions and consider taking profits when the price breaks the 5 - day moving average [68]. - **Propylene**: The upward momentum of the spot and futures prices is weak. The supply is high, and the demand changes little [69][70]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The supply is high, and it is advisable to short on rallies and appropriately arrange reverse spreads [72]. - **Oilseeds**: It is recommended to buy far - month double - meal contracts on dips due to the expected supply gap [73][74]. - **Oils**: The far - month supply gap supports the strong operation of oils [75]

Report Overview - The report is a daily risk management report on polypropylene, dated August 14, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Polypropylene (PP) prices currently lack a directional driver and mainly follow macro - sentiment. In the short - term, the PP supply - demand balance can be maintained, but there is significant inventory pressure looking towards the 01 contract. Future focus should be on demand and cost changes [3] Summary by Directory Price Forecast - The monthly price range for polypropylene is predicted to be between 7000 - 7200 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 8.48%, and its historical percentile over 3 years is 6.7% [2] Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and concerns about price drops, sell 25% of PP2509 futures at 7150 - 7200 yuan/ton to lock in profits and sell 50% of PP2510C7200 call options at 30 - 60 to collect premiums and reduce costs [2] Procurement Management - For low regular inventory and procurement based on orders, buy 50% of PP2509 futures at 7000 - 7050 yuan/ton to lock in procurement costs and sell 75% of PP2510P7000 put options at 30 - 60 to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if prices fall [2] Core Contradictions - The polyolefin market follows macro - sentiment and coking coal prices. PP supply is high due to previous plant startups and PDH plant returns during the maintenance season. Demand has stable downstream开工率, with low raw material and finished - product inventories and speculative restocking willingness, indicating demand elasticity [3] Bullish Factors - Inventory is at a neutral level, and there is an expectation of improved demand [4] Bearish Factors - Two plants in Daxie are expected to start production in August, with multiple plants starting up from June - August, significantly increasing PP production capacity. PDH profits have recovered, and marginal plants are returning. Exports are seasonally weak, and the export window is closed [5] Daily Data Futures Prices and Spreads - The polypropylene main - contract basis was - 35 yuan/ton on August 14, 2025, up 22 yuan/ton from the previous day and down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week [6] - PP01, PP05, and PP09 contracts all showed price declines on August 14 compared to the previous day [8] Spot Prices and Regional Spreads - Spot prices in North China, East China, and South China all decreased slightly on August 14 compared to the previous day [8] Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads - The spreads between different non - standard and standard polypropylene products showed various changes on August 14 compared to the previous day [8] Upstream Prices and Processing Profits - Brent crude oil prices remained stable, while US propane prices increased slightly. Different PP production methods had varying profit changes [8]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Polyethylene Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: August 14, 2025 [1] Group 2: Analyst Information - Analysts: Dai Yifan (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0015428), Gu Hengye (Futures Practice License No.: F03143348) [2] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [2] Group 3: Price Forecast and Hedging Strategies - Polyethylene Price Range Forecast (Monthly): 7200 - 7400 [3] - Current Volatility (20 - day rolling): 9.94% [3] - Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 - year): 11.1% [3] - Inventory Management Strategy: For high - level finished product inventory, sell L2509 futures at 25% ratio in the range of 7350 - 7400 and sell L2510C7400 call options at 50% ratio in the range of 50 - 100 [3] - Procurement Management Strategy: For low - level procurement inventory, buy L2509 futures at 50% ratio in the range of 7200 - 7250 and sell L2510P7200 put options at 75% ratio in the range of 30 - 70 [3] Group 4: Core Contradictions - Polyolefin market follows macro - sentiment and coking coal price fluctuations. PE is moving towards a supply - demand growth pattern. Supply is increasing as the maintenance season ends, and demand is transitioning from off - season to peak season but with a slow recovery speed. Near - term PE supply - demand pressure is not large, but there is a risk of inventory accumulation if demand recovery is less than expected [4] Group 5: Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish Factor: Demand is expected to improve after August [5] - Bearish Factors: Jilin Petrochemical has recently started production, and ExxonMobil's 500,000 - ton LDPE plant is expected to start production in August - September. LLDPE inventory is at a high level [6] Group 6: Market Data Futures Prices and Spreads - Plastic Main Contract Basis: 8 yuan/ton on August 14, with a daily change of 26 yuan/ton and a weekly change of 30 yuan/ton [7] - L01 Contract Price: 7343 yuan/ton on August 14, a daily decrease of 38 yuan/ton and a weekly decrease of 21 yuan/ton [7] Spot Prices and Regional Spreads - North China Spot Price: 7290 yuan/ton on August 14, unchanged daily and an increase of 80 yuan/ton weekly [9] - East China Spot Price: 7360 yuan/ton on August 14, unchanged daily and an increase of 40 yuan/ton weekly [9] Upstream Prices and Processing Profits - Brent Crude Oil Price: 66 dollars/barrel on August 14, unchanged daily and a decrease of 0.8 dollars/barrel weekly [9] - US Ethane Price: 0.2026 dollars/gallon on August 14, a daily decrease of 0.0024 dollars/gallon and a weekly decrease of 0.0137 dollars/gallon [9]