Group 1: Overall Index Performance - The Nanhua Composite Index dropped by -0.92% compared to the previous trading day's closing price [1][3] Group 2: Sector Index Performance - Among the sector indices, only the Nanhua Agricultural Products Index rose by 0.03%, while the rest declined. The Nanhua Precious Metals Index had the largest decline of -3.32%, and the Nanhua Black Index had the smallest decline of -0.25% [1][3] Group 3: Theme Index Performance - The Economic Crops Index had the largest increase of 1.21% among the theme indices, and the Oilseeds and Oils Index had the smallest increase of 0.15%. The Energy Index had the largest decline of -1.15%, and the Building Materials Index had the smallest decline of -0.01% [1][3] Group 4: Single - Variety Index Performance - The Apple single - variety index had the largest increase of 3.38%, and the Gold single - variety index had the largest decline of -3.53% [1][4] Group 5: Agricultural Products Sector Single - Variety Performance - In the agricultural products sector, rapeseed had an increase of 2.61%, corn had an increase of 0.52%, while palm oil declined by -1.56%, live pigs declined by -1.38%, and rapeseed oil declined by -0.18% [8] Group 6: Energy and Chemical Sector Single - Variety Performance - In the energy and chemical sector, synthetic ammonia had an increase of 0.56%, polyethylene had an increase of 0.36%, while coal declined by -1.50%, and crude oil declined by -1.23% [6][12]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Report's Core View - The report suggests paying attention to the central bank's bond - purchasing operations. With the central bank resuming treasury bond trading operations, the bond market may have further upward momentum, and long - bond holders can partially take profits and keep some positions for potential further gains [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Conditions - On Tuesday, all varieties of treasury bond futures opened higher, fluctuated after a rally, and closed up across the board. The end - of - month capital market remained tight, with DR001 at around 1.47%. The open - market reverse repurchase was 475.3 billion yuan, with a net injection of 315.8 billion yuan [1] - The 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Meeting announcements influenced the bond market. After the central bank governor announced the resumption of treasury bond trading operations, the spot - bond yields dropped sharply after 5 p.m. yesterday. Today, the yields of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds partially recovered from yesterday's decline, while those of other maturities continued to fall [2] 2. Important News - Central Bank Governor Pan Gongsheng stated that the bond market is operating well, and the central bank will resume open - market treasury bond trading operations, explore a mechanism to provide liquidity to non - banking institutions in specific situations, and is studying a one - time personal credit relief policy [2] - Financial Regulatory Administration Director Li Yunze said at the opening ceremony of the 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Meeting that efforts will be made to strengthen the capital supply for major projects and promote the expansion and upgrading of consumption [2] 3. Market Expectations - The market expects this round of bond purchases to be a combination of short - term and medium - to - long - term bonds. The central bank's recent liquidity injection methods and the resumption of treasury bond trading may mean that policies such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts will be postponed, but it does not prevent the improvement of market expectations [2] 4. Data Comparison | Contract | 2025 - 10 - 28 | 2025 - 10 - 27 | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.47 | 102.382 | 0.088 | | TF2512 | 105.905 | 105.735 | 0.17 | | T2512 | 108.425 | 108.145 | 0.28 | | TL2512 | 116.14 | 115.33 | 0.81 | | TS Contract Position (lots) | 78077 | 76175 | 1902 | | TF Contract Position (lots) | 162038 | 156966 | 5072 | | T Contract Position (lots) | 274231 | 263730 | 10501 | | TL Contract Position (lots) | 185933 | 179404 | 6529 | | TS Basis (CTD) | - 0.0023 | 0.0123 | - 0.0146 | | TF Basis (CTD) | 0.085 | - 0.0168 | 0.1018 | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.1987 | 0.0235 | 0.1752 | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.3712 | 0.2081 | 0.1631 | | TS Main Contract Trading Volume (lots) | 39423 | 29975 | 9448 | | TF Main Contract Trading Volume (lots) | 67869 | 58124 | 9745 | | T Main Contract Trading Volume (lots) | 75068 | 75942 | - 874 | | TL Main Contract Trading Volume (lots) | 123331 | 113706 | 9625 | [3]

Report Overview - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Daily Report on Risk Management of Pig Enterprises - Date: October 28, 2025 - Analyst: Dai Hongxu (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0021819) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Policy disturbances may affect the long - term supply of pigs, and a long - term strategic bullish view is possible, but the short - to - medium - term situation is still based on fundamentals. The policy bottom has emerged, but the market bottom may take a production cycle to form. Currently, the supply exceeds demand, and short - term pig prices dropped rapidly due to concentrated slaughter during the double festivals. With the arrival of the peak season, demand will improve, and there may be a structural shortage of large pigs, supporting peak - season prices [3] 3. Key Points by Section 3.1 Pig Price Range Forecast - The predicted price range of the main contract is 11,000 - 13,500. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 24.72%, and its historical percentile over 3 years is 76.74% [2] 3.2 Pig Enterprise Risk Management Strategy Suggestions 3.2.1 Inventory Management - For high product inventory and fear of inventory impairment, strategies include short - selling live pig futures according to inventory to lock in profits, selling call options when there is no suitable futures price, and buying out - of - the - money put options if not wanting to miss potential price increases. The recommended ratio for short - selling futures and selling call options is 10% [2] 3.2.2 Procurement Management - For future procurement plans and fear of price increases, strategies include buying long - term pig contracts according to the procurement plan to lock in costs, selling put options when there is no suitable futures price, and buying out - of - the - money call options if not wanting to lock in profits early and expecting lower costs [2] 3.3 Core Contradictions - Policy disturbances may affect long - term pig supply. The policy bottom has appeared, but the market bottom needs time. The current supply exceeds demand, and short - term price drops were due to concentrated slaughter. With the peak season, demand will improve, and large pigs may be in short supply [3] 3.4利多解读 (Likely Positive Factors) - Macro - sentiment improvement boosts market confidence; the standard - to - fat pig price spread is at a high level; there is a medium - to - long - term policy expectation of reducing production capacity; the second - fattening pen occupancy rate is decreasing, and with low pig prices and fattening costs, speculative second - fattening is entering the market; group farms are reducing slaughter [6] 3.5利空解读 (Likely Negative Factors) - The inventory of breeding sows is still high; the inventory of large - scale enterprises is at a three - year high; downstream terminal consumption is weak [6][7] 3.6 Pig Spot Prices - The national average spot price is 12.44 yuan/kg, up 0.28 yuan or 2.3%. Prices in different regions such as Henan, Hunan, Liaoning, Sichuan, and Guangdong also showed increases [9] 3.7 Pig Futures Prices - The closing prices of different futures contracts (01, 03, 05, 07, 09, 11) showed different changes, with some rising and some falling. For example, the 01 contract closed at 12,160 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan or 1.38%, while the 11 contract closed at 12,095 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 0.25% [10] 3.8 Pig Futures Spreads and Basis - Different futures spreads (e.g., LH01 - 03, LH03 - 05) and basis (e.g., Henan - 01 contract) showed various changes in price and percentage [17]

Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Report Date: October 28, 2025 - Analyst: Chen Mintao (Z0022731) [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The ferroalloy market is currently oscillating, with the upward momentum gradually weakening after two consecutive days of doji candlesticks at the close. The recent rise in ferroalloy prices has been mainly driven by short - covering, and attention should be paid to the upper pressure levels [4]. - The ferroalloy market is facing several core contradictions, including the contradiction between high inventory and weak demand, the challenge to cost support, and the contradiction between the expectation of anti - involution and weak reality. Overall, although supported by coking coal prices, the fundamentals are insufficient to support a significant upward movement, and the upside space is limited [5][7]. Summary by Directory Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for ferrosilicon is 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.84% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 41.3%. For ferromanganese, the monthly price range forecast is also 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.93% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 8.3% [3]. Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price declines, they can short ferroalloy futures (SF2601, SM2601) according to their inventory levels to lock in profits and cover production costs. The selling ratio is 15%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy ferroalloy futures (SF2601, SM2601) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The buying ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 5200 - 5300, SM: 5300 - 5400 [3]. Market Review - The ferroalloy market has been oscillating, and the upward movement has been driven by short - covering. The upward momentum is weakening, and attention should be paid to the upper pressure [4]. Core Contradictions - **High Inventory and Weak Demand**: Ferroalloy production profits are declining, and there is little expectation of further production increases. However, downstream demand has not improved significantly during the peak season, and the inventory of five major steel products is increasing. The inventory of ferromanganese enterprises is at a five - year high, with a month - on - month increase of 11.8%, indicating high inventory pressure [5]. - **Cost Support Challenge**: Although the prices of semi - coke, electricity, and manganese ore are stable, the pattern of high supply and weak demand in the ferroalloy market remains unchanged, challenging the effectiveness of cost support. However, the tight supply of coking coal, stricter environmental inspections, and political factors in Mongolia have led to a significant increase in coking coal prices, providing short - term support for ferroalloy prices [5]. - **Contradiction between Expectation and Reality**: The anti - involution sentiment still lingers in the market, and there is an expectation of supply contraction. However, the lack of substantial actions increases the risk of price reversals after reaching highs. The profitability rate of steel mills has dropped below 50%, increasing the risk of negative feedback in the black market, which further weakens the already weak fundamentals of steel and ferroalloy. After the Fourth Plenary Session, there was no unexpected total stimulus or strong real - estate stimulus, providing limited support for the strong rebound of the cycle and real - estate chains [5][7]. 利多 and 利空 Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: The Sino - US economic and trade consultations have alleviated market concerns about Sino - US relations; the US CPI inflation data in September was lower than expected, increasing the expectation of a Fed rate cut; the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has solicited public opinions on the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry (Draft for Comment)", proposing a capacity replacement ratio of no less than 1.5:1 for iron - making and steel - making in each province [8]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The steel market has failed to meet peak - season expectations, with a significant decline in steel mill profitability and increasing negative feedback pressure, leading to a continuous decline in hot - metal production; Tangshan plans to implement a 30% blast - furnace production restriction for four days from October 27 - 31, reducing the demand for ferroalloys; from January to September, national real - estate development investment decreased by 13.9% year - on - year, and various real - estate indicators such as construction area, new construction area, sales area, and sales volume also showed significant declines [8]. Daily Data - **Silicon Iron**: The daily data shows changes in basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse receipts compared to previous days and weeks [9]. - **Silicon Manganese**: Similar to silicon iron, the daily data includes basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse receipts, with corresponding changes [10][11]. Seasonal Charts - The report provides multiple seasonal charts, including those for silicon iron and silicon manganese market prices, basis, futures spreads, and inventory, which can help analyze the historical patterns and trends of these factors [12][14][25][35]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report Although in the medium - to - long - term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price of precious metals, in the short term, they are in an adjustment phase. Investors should look for mid - term opportunities to buy on dips and hold existing long positions cautiously. The resistance levels for London gold are 4000 and 4150, and the support is lowered to the 3800 - 3850 area. For silver, the resistance levels are 48 and 50 - 50.5, and the support is 46 [5]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Market Review On Monday, precious metal prices declined as the easing of global trade tensions boosted market risk appetite. The US dollar index fluctuated, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell, and European and American stock indexes, Bitcoin, the South China Non - ferrous Metals Index, and crude oil showed various trends. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3997 per ounce, down 3.4%; US silver 2512 contract closed at $46.83 per ounce, down 3.61%. SHFE gold 2512 main contract closed at 934.14 yuan per gram, down 1.24%; SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 11394 yuan per kilogram, down 0.47% [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings Interest rate cut expectations were generally stable. According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in October was 2.7%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut was 97.3%. For December, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut was 4.6%, a 50 - basis - point cut was 95.3%, and a 75 - basis - point cut was 0%. For January, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut was 2.3%, a 50 - basis - point cut was 48.1%, and a 75 - basis - point cut was 49.6%. SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 8.01 tons to 1038.94 tons, and iShares Silver ETF holdings decreased by 79.02 tons to 15340.79 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 17.3 tons to 647.6 tons, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 145.4 tons to 905.2 tons in the week ending October 17 [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus In terms of data, focus on the preliminary value of the US Q3 GDP on Thursday and the US September PCE data on Friday. For events, pay attention to the Fed FOMC's interest rate decision at 02:00 on Thursday, Fed Chairman Powell's press conference at 02:30, and the European Central Bank's interest rate decision at 21:15 on Thursday. Also, focus on the APEC Leaders' Summit in South Korea, US President Trump's visits to Japan (until October 29) and South Korea [4]. 3.4 Price and Inventory Data - **Precious Metal Futures and Spot Prices**: SHFE gold main contract was at 934.14 yuan per gram, down 0.42%; SGX gold TD was at 930.29 yuan per gram, down 0.54%; CME gold main contract was at $3997 per ounce, down 3.15%. SHFE silver main contract was at 11394 yuan per kilogram, up 0.55%; SGX silver TD was at 11345 yuan per kilogram, up 0.25%; CME silver main contract was at $46.83 per ounce, down 3.26% [6][7]. - **Inventory and Position Data**: SHFE gold inventory was 87015 kilograms (unchanged), CME gold inventory was 1203.3159 tons, down 0.49%; SHFE gold position was 180815 lots, down 2.69%; SPDR gold position was 1038.92 tons, down 0.77%. SHFE silver inventory was 647.643 tons, down 2.61%; CME silver inventory was 15320.2554 tons, down 0.88%; SGX silver inventory was 905.235 tons, down 13.84%; SHFE silver position was 341694 lots, down 6.63%; SLV silver position was 15340.794278 tons, down 0.51% [12]. 3.5 Other Market Data The US dollar index was at 98.8157, down 0.12%; the US dollar against the Chinese yuan was at 7.1091, down 0.16%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average was at 47544.59 points, up 0.71%; WTI crude oil spot was at $61.31 per barrel, down 0.31%; LmeS copper 03 was at $11000.5 per ton, up 0.49%; the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.01%, down 0.25%; the 10 - year US real interest rate was 1.73% (unchanged); the 10 - 2 - year US Treasury yield spread was 0.53%, down 1.85% [17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View New-season soybeans are still in the listing period. Affected by positive factors such as stable grain - selling sentiment and increased purchasing behavior driven by the reduction in southern production areas, the price of domestic soybeans has run stronger than the season. The main contradiction of loose supply and price pressure has changed. However, with the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the possible restart of US soybean imports, the market's bullish sentiment is suppressed. The market has entered a consolidation stage after the rise. In the later stage, the purchasing intensity in the spot market is the key to determining the soybean price trend, and the situation of price variation may continue [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Range Forecast and Risk Strategies - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range forecast for the bean - one 11 - contract in the month is 3900 - 4100, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.72% and a historical percentile of 29.3% [3]. - **Risk Strategies** - **Inventory Management for Sellers**: For those with long positions due to large new - bean sales demand in autumn and concentrated listing, two strategies are recommended. One is to short bean - one futures (A2601) with a 30% hedging ratio when the price is above 4100 to lock in planting profits. The other is to sell the call option A2511 - C - 4050 with a 30% ratio at 30 - 50 (holding) to increase the grain - selling price [3]. - **Procurement Management for Buyers**: For those worried about rising raw - material prices and increased procurement costs (short positions), the main strategy is to wait to purchase spot goods in the medium - term and focus on long - term procurement management. Long positions in A2603 and A2605 are recommended, waiting for the price to bottom out in the fourth quarter [3]. 3.2 Core Contradiction Analysis - **Positive Factors**: Stable grain - selling sentiment, repayment needs, improved storage conditions due to colder weather, and strong purchasing willingness from the mid - and downstream support the price. The non - start of previous years' state - reserve purchases also restricts price decline [4][7]. - **Negative Factors**: The resumption of new - season soybean harvesting and listing in southern production areas ensures short - term supply. The progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the possible restart of US soybean imports change the market's bullish logic [4][7]. 3.3 Price and Market Data - **Spot Price and Basis**: On October 27, 2025, the spot price of Harbin (domestic third - grade) soybeans was 3900 yuan/ton with a basis of - 177, and that of Nenjiang was 3860 yuan/ton with a basis of - 244 [5]. - **Futures Closing Price**: From October 24 to 27, 2025, the closing prices of bean - one futures contracts all declined. For example, the bean - one 11 - contract decreased by 0.54% from 4076 to 4054 yuan/ton [8].

Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Corn & Starch Industry Daily Report [1] - Report Date: October 28, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Dai Hongxu (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0021819) [1] - Research Assistant: Kang Quangui (Qualification Certificate No.: F03148699) [1] Core Viewpoints - The corn market is under price pressure due to the ample supply of new grain. The harvest is nearing completion, and the selling pressure remains high, keeping prices under downward pressure. However, the supportive effect of policy purchases is emerging. The Northeast production area has stabilized, while the North China production area is in the recovery phase after weather disruptions, with short - term supply increasing and prices weak. The decreasing supply of high - quality grain will support future prices [2]. - On Monday, the corn futures market declined across the board, with a near - term weak and long - term strong contract structure. The spot market pressure has pushed prices into a short - term correction phase, and prices are likely in a bottom - grinding stage. The starch futures market followed the corn market down. Supported by stable corn prices in the Northeast, the starch spot price remained stable, with moderate trading and high inventory limiting price increases [2]. - On Monday, CBOT corn futures rose by over 1%, as progress in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations boosted export expectations, pushing the futures price to a phased high [2]. 利多 and 利空 Factors Bullish Factors - The number of state reserve purchase points is gradually increasing, clearly aiming to support prices and limit price drops [2]. - The shortage of high - quality corn in North China will become more apparent over time, supporting the expectation of stronger long - term prices [2]. Bearish Factors - The pig industry is in the process of capacity regulation, which may affect long - term corn feed demand. However, the high inventory in the fourth quarter and the current entry of second - fattening pigs support the feed demand at a relatively good level [2]. - Price rebounds have led to increased selling pressure, and the market focus has returned to supply pressure, pushing prices into a short - term correction phase [2]. Price and Basis Data Corn and Starch Spot Prices and Main - Contract Basis | Location | Corn Price (Yuan/Ton) | Price Change (Yuan/Ton) | Location | Corn Starch Price (Yuan/Ton) | Price Change (Yuan/Ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Jinzhou Port | 2150 | - 10 | Shandong | 2760 | 0 | | Shekou Port | 2290 | - 10 | Jilin | 2550 | 0 | | Harbin | 2010 | 0 | Heilongjiang | 2460 | 0 | | Jinzhou Port Main - Contract Basis | 38 | 11 | Shandong Main - Contract Basis | 335 | 16 | [3] Corn and Starch Futures Prices | Contract | October 24, 2025 | October 27, 2025 | Price Change | Percentage Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Corn 11 | 2110 | 2098 | - 12 | - 0.57% | | Corn 01 | 2133 | 2112 | - 21 | - 0.98% | | Corn 03 | 2161 | 2140 | - 21 | - 0.97% | | Corn 05 | 2237 | 2217 | - 20 | - 0.89% | | Corn 07 | 2258 | 2240 | - 18 | - 0.80% | | Corn 09 | 2250 | 2250 | 0 | 0.00% | | Corn Starch 11 | 2423 | 2431 | 8 | 0.33% | | Corn Starch 01 | 2441 | 2425 | - 16 | - 0.66% | | Corn Starch 03 | 2462 | 2442 | - 20 | - 0.81% | | Corn Starch 05 | 2558 | 2545 | - 13 | - 0.51% | | Corn Starch 07 | 2574 | 2559 | - 15 | - 0.58% | | Corn Starch 09 | 2619 | 2598 | - 21 | - 0.80% | | Wheat Average Price | 2499 | 2499 | 0 | 0.00% | [3][5] US Corn Price and Import Profit | Item | Price | Daily Change | Percentage Change | Import Profit (Yuan/Ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Corn Main - Contract | 428 | 4 | 0.94% | | | COBT Soybean Main - Contract | 1083.5 | 23 | 2.17% | | | CBOT Wheat Main - Contract | 526 | 13 | 2.53% | | | US Gulf Port CIF Price | 2128.05 | - 6.81 | - 0.32% | 171.95 | | US West Coast Port CIF Price | 2005.89 | 24.07 | 1.21% | 294.11 | [28]

Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Coal and Coke Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: October 27, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Research Institute, Black Research Team - Analyst: Zhang Xuan [1][2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The coal and coke market shows a strong performance. Near the off - season, steel demand weakens marginally, steel prices decline under pressure, and steel mill profits shrink. The potential negative feedback risk restricts the short - term rebound height of coal and coke prices. However, if the supply of coking coal tightens in the fourth quarter and the winter storage demand is released in mid - to late November, the overall valuation center of the black market is expected to move up, and coal and coke are suitable as long - allocation varieties in the black market [4]. Summary by Relevant Content 1. Double - Coking Price Range Forecast and Risk Management Strategy - **Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range forecast for coking coal is 1100 - 1350, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 36.62% and a historical percentile of 71.00%. For coke, it is 1550 - 1850, with a volatility of 29.62% and a historical percentile of 63.17% [3]. - **Risk Management Strategy**: For inventory hedging, when steel mill profits contract marginally and coking enterprises face difficulties in price increases, they can short the J2601 coke contract at different entry intervals and with different hedging ratios. For procurement management, considering factors such as macro - sentiment fluctuations and coking coal supply disturbances, coking plants can long the JM2605 coking coal contract at different entry intervals and with different hedging ratios [3]. 2. Black Warehouse Receipt Daily Report - **Warehouse Receipt Quantity Changes**: The quantities of warehouse receipts for various black commodities on October 27, 2025, showed different changes compared with previous days. For example, the warehouse receipt quantity of hot - rolled coils decreased by 32,398 tons day - on - day, and the warehouse receipt quantity of iron ore decreased by 500 hands week - on - week [4]. - **Market Analysis**: The coking coal market has a tight supply situation, and the coke price may be strong in the short term. The steel market is under pressure due to weakening demand and high inventory, and steel mill profits are shrinking. The potential negative feedback risk affects the coal and coke market. The implementation of the temporary production - restriction plan in Tangshan may relieve local steel inventory pressure, but the impact on coking coal supply is limited [4]. 3. Coal and Coke Market Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: In the fourth quarter, domestic mine production is restricted by policies, and the supply elasticity of coking coal is limited. The winter storage scale in 2025 is expected to be better than that in 2024. The downstream replenishment and supply reduction in some areas improve the coking coal inventory structure, and the short - term coke price may be strong [4][6]. - **Negative Factors**: The steel inventory pressure is large in the short term, and if the steel profit situation deteriorates, it may trigger a negative feedback risk in the black market [7]. 4. Coal and Coke Price Data - **Futures Price**: The report provides the daily and weekly price changes of coking coal and coke futures, including warehouse receipt costs, basis, and price differences between different contracts [8]. - **Spot Price**: It shows the price changes of various coking coal and coke spot varieties, as well as import and export profits and other data [9][10]. 5. Graphical Data - The report includes multiple graphs such as double - coking historical volatility percentiles, coking coal and coke term - structure spread graphs, and various seasonal graphs related to coal and coke prices, warehouse receipt inventories, and import profits [11][12][37]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report - According to the closing prices of adjacent trading days, the South China Comprehensive Index rose 0.69% today. Among the sector indices, only the South China Precious Metals Index fell by -0.03%, while the rest of the sectors rose. The sector with the largest increase was the South China Black Index, with a gain of 1.52%, and the sector with the smallest increase was the South China Agricultural Products Index, with a gain of 0.23%. All theme indices rose, with the Black Raw Materials Index having the largest increase of 1.55% and the Oilseeds and Oils Index having the smallest increase of 0.02%. Among the single - variety indices of commodity futures, the single - variety index with the largest increase was lithium carbonate, up 2.99%, and the single - variety index with the largest decrease was red dates, down - 3.35% [1][3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Data of South China Commodity Index - The South China Comprehensive Index (NHCI) closed at 2563.19 today, up 17.56 points or 0.69% from yesterday. Its annualized return is 0.49%, annualized volatility is 11.89%, and the Sharpe ratio is 0.04. The South China Precious Metals Index (NHPMI) closed at 1523.51, down 0.50 points or - 0.03%, with an annualized return of 47.67%, annualized volatility of 17.97%, and a Sharpe ratio of 2.65. Other indices such as the Industrial Products Index (NHII), Metal Index (NHMI), etc., also have their respective closing prices, changes, annualized returns, volatilities, and Sharpe ratios [3]. Main Single - Variety Index Yield vs Volatility - No specific summary content provided for this part other than the title. Historical Trend Charts of South China Comprehensive Index and Sector Indices (Normalized) - No specific summary content provided for this part other than the title. Historical Trend Charts of South China Theme Indices (Normalized) - No specific summary content provided for this part other than the title. Industry Chain Diagrams and Single - Variety Index Daily Changes of Some Varieties in Different Sectors - In the energy and chemical sector, glass rose 1.38%, synthetic ammonia, coal, polyethylene, polypropylene, naphtha, citrus, and crude oil had their respective changes. In the black sector and agricultural products sector, relevant variety chain diagrams and single - variety index daily changes are presented, such as rapeseed oil in the agricultural products sector falling - 0.13%, etc. [13][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, rubber shows a strong performance, but the further driving force is limited. It should focus on macro - sentiment changes. In the medium - to - long - term, it is regarded as neutral to weak due to supply pressure and demand uncertainties [1]. - The future trend of rubber prices is expected to be volatile, with weak fundamental drivers. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment changes [15]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Short - term: Rubber rebounded in resonance with the crude oil and chemical sectors. The low valuation of RU, tight spot liquidity of dark - colored rubber, and certain digestion of fundamental negative factors led to the rebound. However, rubber's rebound may suppress procurement demand [1]. - Medium - to - long - term: The global total production capacity cycle has not fully peaked, and supply pressure will increase. Stable demand expectations require continuous macro - positive factors, and export growth faces risks [1]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Price Range and Trend Judgement**: The reference oscillation range for RU2601 in the next week is 14,900 - 15,500; for NR2511, it is 12,100 - 12,600. It is expected to maintain oscillation in the future, with weak fundamental drivers [15]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading. Consider shorting at high prices for far - month contracts with protective option strategies. For basis trading, consider reverse cash - and - carry at high prices. For now, wait and see for spread arbitrage and consider widening the spread at low prices for variety arbitrage [16]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range for rubber RU in the next two weeks is 14,800 - 15,500; for 20 - grade rubber NR, it is 12,100 - 12,600 [20]. - **Risk Management Strategies**: For inventory management, short rubber futures and use options to lock in profits and reduce risks. For procurement management, buy far - month rubber futures and use options to lock in costs and reduce risks [20][22]. 3.2 Important Information and Concerns 3.2.1 Last Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: Tensions between the US and Russia, a significant drop in EIA inventory, and other factors drove up the prices of crude oil and the chemical sector. There was an acceleration in dry - rubber de - stocking, positive macro - economic data, and growth in global light - vehicle sales [23]. - **Negative Information**: Macroeconomic data such as LPR remaining unchanged, a decline in fixed - asset investment, and an increase in rubber imports put downward pressure on rubber prices [25]. 3.2.2 This Week's Focus - Monitor rainfall in rubber - producing areas, Fed FOMC interest - rate decisions, Chinese official PMI data, EIA inventory reports, and new foreign - trade policies [27]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Analysis - **Domestic Market**: Rubber prices rebounded last week. RU's position increased, while NR's decreased. Short - position profits for RU and NR decreased, and net positions rebounded. Spot prices generally rebounded, and the basis and term structure of RU and NR changed [28][29][32]. - **Foreign Market**: The foreign - market trend was similar to that of the domestic market, with less volatility in Japanese rubber and stronger performance in Singapore's 20 - grade rubber. The term structure of Japanese and Singaporean rubber also changed [53][55]. 3.3.2 Other Analyses - **Virtual - to - Physical Ratio and Sentiment Index**: Rubber sentiment fluctuated greatly last week, with a bullish sentiment. RU's virtual - to - physical ratio increased, while NR's decreased [57]. - **Domestic - Foreign Spread Tracking**: The spread between RU and Japanese rubber futures decreased significantly, while the spread between NR and Singaporean rubber was similar to the previous period [59]. - **Variety Spread Analysis**: The spread between light and dark rubber rebounded. The spread between natural and synthetic rubber slightly adjusted [62][71]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Industry Chain Profit Tracking - **Raw Material Costs**: Domestic raw - material prices rebounded. In Thailand, water and cup - rubber prices remained stable, and the spread between them slightly narrowed [77]. - **Processing Profits**: The delivery profit of whole - latex remained low, and the profit of TSR9710 decreased. The processing and import profits of imported rubber showed different trends [85][86][89]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply Side - **Production in Major Producing Countries**: Thailand's production is expected to increase smoothly, Indonesia's production may slightly decrease, and Malaysia's production may be affected by weather and low rubber prices. Vietnam's production and exports are affected by weather and tariffs [90]. - **Import Situation**: In September, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The import of Thai standard rubber decreased, while that of Thai mixed rubber increased [94][95]. 3.5.2 Demand Side - **Total Demand in Major Producing Countries**: In August, China's actual consumption of natural rubber was stable year - on - year, while the demand in other major producing countries decreased [104]. - **Tire Production and Sales**: After the holiday, tire - enterprise capacity utilization increased. Tire exports showed strong resilience but decreased month - on - month [107]. - **Replacement Demand**: The domestic logistics industry is stable, but fixed - asset investment may suppress replacement demand in the long run [112]. - **Supporting Demand**: Domestic automobile sales were good, and tire supporting demand was stable. However, long - term tire supporting demand from trucks may be limited [115]. - **Overseas Tire Production and Demand**: Japanese tire production was stable, and Thai tire shipments increased. US tire imports increased, and European passenger - car production and sales were stable [126][129]. 3.5.3 Inventory Side - **Futures Inventory**: RU warehouse receipts continued to decline, while NR warehouse receipts increased [133]. - **Social Inventory**: As of October 26, 2025, Qingdao's natural - rubber inventory decreased, with changes in inbound and outbound rates [136].