Report Overview - Report Title: Treasury Bond Futures Daily Report - Report Date: October 23, 2025 - Analyst: Xu Chenxi (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0001908) - Investment Advisory Business Qualification: CSRC Permit [2011] 1290 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests paying attention to capital market sentiment. The current capital market is waiting for the policy statements of the Fourth Plenary Session on the "15th Five-Year Plan" and the results of China-US trade negotiations. In the next two days, focus on the news from the Fourth Plenary Session. If the risk sentiment recovers, the bond market may reach further lows. The operation should still be based on a bullish mindset without chasing high prices [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, treasury bond futures opened lower, turned positive near noon, and weakened in the afternoon, with all varieties closing down. The short - end yields of spot bonds slightly decreased, while the long - end yields slightly increased. The funding situation was loose, with DR001 around 1.32%. There was a 212.5 billion yuan open - market reverse repurchase and a 120 billion yuan treasury cash fixed - deposit tender, resulting in a net injection of 96.5 billion yuan [1] 3.2 Market News - Trump said that he expects China and the US to reach a trade agreement at the APEC summit, but the leaders of the two countries may not meet. If the two sides fail to reach an agreement in the end, a 155% tariff will be imposed. - The Ministry of Commerce announced that Vice Premier He Lifeng will lead a delegation to Malaysia from October 24 to 27 to hold economic and trade consultations with the US [2] 3.3 Market Analysis - The market continued to fluctuate with the news. The A - share market weakened in the morning, recovered in the afternoon after the news of China - US economic and trade consultations in Malaysia, and continued to strengthen at the close, while the bond market declined accordingly [3] 3.4 Market Data | Contract | 2025 - 10 - 23 | 2025 - 10 - 22 | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.342 | 102.352 | - 0.01 | | TF2512 | 105.665 | 105.715 | - 0.05 | | T2512 | 108.07 | 108.16 | - 0.09 | | TL2512 | 115.3 | 115.6 | - 0.3 | | TS Contract Position (lots) | 76,588 | 76,223 | + 365 | | TF Contract Position (lots) | 152,409 | 156,292 | - 3,883 | | T Contract Position (lots) | 262,198 | 269,637 | - 7,439 | | TL Contract Position (lots) | 175,682 | 178,780 | - 3,098 | | TS Basis (CTD) | - 0.0297 | - 0.0316 | + 0.0019 | | TF Basis (CTD) | - 0.0405 | - 0.0118 | - 0.0287 | | T Basis (CTD) | - 0.0074 | 0.1457 | - 0.1531 | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.319 | 0.3552 | - 0.0362 | | TS Main Contract Trading Volume (lots) | 32,327 | 24,145 | + 8,182 | | TF Main Contract Trading Volume (lots) | 59,535 | 40,005 | + 19,530 | | T Main Contract Trading Volume (lots) | 76,898 | 66,248 | + 10,650 | | TL Main Contract Trading Volume (lots) | 136,162 | 113,354 | + 22,808 | [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Five - Year Plan is a crucial tool for China's governance, guiding the country's economic and social development. It has evolved from a command - style plan in the planned economy era to a strategic - oriented plan in the market economy era, and has a profound impact on the capital market, especially the futures market [6][10][34]. - Understanding the Five - Year Plan is essential for investors to make forward - looking asset allocations, as it can help them identify investment opportunities and risks by providing insights into policy directions and industry trends [10]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 The Significance of the Five - Year Plan in China - **Reasons to Focus on the Five - Year Plan** - It is the top - level design and strategic blueprint for national development, guiding the actions of the government, market players, and the public. It also reflects the country's long - term goal of building a socialist modern country [6][9]. - It serves as the core basis for policy - making and resource allocation, influencing fiscal, monetary, industrial, and regional policies. The industries emphasized in the plan often become investment hotspots in the capital market [8][10]. - It is a barometer of the macro - economic cycle and industrial trends, indicating the direction of economic development and industrial structure adjustment [10]. - **Importance of the Five - Year Plan** - It promotes the modernization of the national governance system and capacity through a scientific, democratic, and legal decision - making process and a complete goal - governance loop [11][12]. - It ensures the long - term stable development of the economy and society by providing stable expectations, coordinating regional and industrial development, and helping the country cope with major risks and challenges [13]. - It has a profound impact on the capital market, especially the futures market. The specific arrangements in the plan directly affect the supply - demand pattern and price trends of relevant futures varieties and also drive institutional and product innovation in the futures market [14]. 3.2 The Formulation Process of the Five - Year Plan - **General Process** - **From a procedural steps perspective (seven - step process)**: It includes pre - research and consultation, research and compilation, proposal and implementation, draft formation, review and approval, mid - term evaluation, and final evaluation [23]. - **From a compilation stage perspective (four - stage model)**: It consists of mid - term evaluation, basic idea research, the compilation of the Party Central Committee's "Proposal", and the formal compilation of the "Outline" [23][24]. - **Key Time Points for the "15th Five - Year Plan"** - **Pre - research and basic ideas (2023 - H1 2025)**: The mid - term evaluation of the "14th Five - Year Plan" was completed in 2023, and pre - research for the "15th Five - Year Plan" was carried out [27]. - **Compilation of the Party Central Committee's "Proposal" (Early 2025 - October 2025)**: The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was held on October 20, 2025, to discuss the "Proposal" [27]. - **Formal compilation of the "Outline" (November 2025 - March 2026)**: The State Council will form the draft of the "15th Five - Year Plan Outline" based on the "Proposal" and submit it to the National People's Congress in March 2026 for approval [27][28]. - **Compilation Subjects and Decision - Making Mechanisms** - **Compilation Subjects**: The National Development and Reform Commission plays a leading role, and other ministries and local governments are also important participants, contributing to the compilation of special plans and local plans respectively [30][31]. - **Decision - Making Mechanisms**: The Party Central Committee determines the core content of the plan; the State Council transforms the "Proposal" into a government work plan; the National People's Congress reviews and approves the plan to make it a legally binding national document [31][32]. 3.3 Review of Previous Five - Year Plans - **Decision - Making Models of Previous Five - Year Plans** - **Evolution from "Plan" to "Planning"**: The nature of the Five - Year Plan has changed from a mandatory economic legal document in the planned economy era to a strategic and guiding development blueprint in the market economy era [33][34]. - **Main Content and Tone of Previous Five - Year Plans**: The content and tone of each plan are closely related to the country's strategic needs and development stage, evolving from focusing on industrialization in the early days to emphasizing high - quality development in recent years [35]. - **Evolution Logic**: The Five - Year Plan has shifted from micro - economic instructions to macro - strategic guidance, with the logic starting point changing from "national needs" to a combination of "market demand" and "national strategy" [36]. - **Review of Policy Ideas during Previous Five - Year Plans** - **Evolution of Policy Ideas**: The policy ideas have changed from simply pursuing economic growth speed to emphasizing development quality and efficiency, with a focus on sustainable and comprehensive development [37][38]. - **Shift in Development Focus**: The development focus has gradually shifted from traditional industries to strategic emerging industries and modern services, indicating a transition from factor - driven to innovation - driven economic growth [39]. - **Adjustment of Development Goals**: The development goals have evolved from emphasizing quantitative expansion to focusing on quality improvement, with the introduction of more comprehensive and balanced indicator systems [40][41]. - **Reasons for the Change in Planning Ideas** - The change is driven by factors such as the country's development stage, international environment, institutional environment, technological revolution, and the improvement of governance capacity [45]. 3.4 Review of the Capital Market Performance during Previous Five - Year Plans - **Overall Impact on the Capital Market** - The Five - Year Plan guides the overall market expectations at the macro - level and creates structural opportunities at the meso - level [46]. - **Performance Review of the Futures Market** - **Overall Performance of the Nanhua Composite Index**: It shows a long - term upward trend, with decreasing volatility and a rising index center. The market is more responsive to policy expectations in the early stage of the plan and focuses on goal implementation in the later stage [47][50]. - **Factors Affecting Market Trends**: The market is influenced by fundamental factors, policy interventions, and external factors. The index generally shows a pattern of "rising in the early stage and fluctuating in the later stage" during each plan period [48][49]. - **Event - Driven Effects**: The release of the Five - Year Plan has a short - term event - driven effect on the futures market, with positive market reactions around the release of the "Proposal" and the "Outline" [48][49].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Industrial Silicon - Supply - The low - electricity - price environment in the southwest region during the wet season is ending, and the growth rate of the ore - heating furnace operating rate in the southwest region is expected to slow down and decline. The furnace - opening growth rate in Xinjiang is also lower than expected, showing a slow - down trend. The overall operating rate of industrial silicon is expected to peak, and the supply - side pressure will gradually ease [4]. - Demand - The operating rate of the organic silicon industry has slowed down, with limited actual demand for industrial silicon. The demand from the recycled aluminum alloy sector remains stable, and the demand from the polysilicon sector is expected to increase steadily in the next two months [4]. - Market Outlook - If the supply - side operating rate enters the downward channel as expected and the downstream polysilicon demand improves substantially, the oversupply situation in the industrial silicon market will ease, and the industry may reach a key node for a price bottom - reversal [4]. Polysilicon - Market Logic - The short - term trading focus is on whether the October photovoltaic storage platform will be established, and then it will shift to the "November concentrated warehouse - receipt cancellation" expectation game. The market shows the characteristics of "increasing supply and stable demand" [9][10]. - Risk - The volatility of polysilicon futures is much higher than that of lithium carbonate and industrial silicon, with a relatively high overall risk level. Investors are advised to participate cautiously and control positions and hedge risks [10]. Summary by Directory I. Futures Data Industrial Silicon - The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract is 8705 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 220 yuan and a daily increase rate of 2.59%. The trading volume is 172346 lots, with a daily increase of 66824 lots and a daily increase rate of 63.33%. The open interest is 76195 lots, with a daily decrease of 20359 lots and a daily decrease rate of 21.09% [12][13]. - The number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts is 48371 lots, with a daily decrease of 367 lots and a daily decrease rate of 0.75% [13]. Polysilicon - The closing price of the polysilicon main contract is 50760 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 450 yuan and a daily increase rate of 0.89%. The trading volume is 86148 lots, with a daily decrease of 14344 lots and a daily decrease rate of 14.27%. The open interest is 45407 lots, with a daily decrease of 3609 lots and a daily decrease rate of 7.36% [37]. - The number of polysilicon futures warehouse receipts is 9220 lots, with a daily decrease of 80 lots and a daily decrease rate of 0.9% [37]. II. Spot Data Industrial Silicon - The price of 99 industrial silicon in Xinjiang is 8700 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 50 yuan and a daily decrease rate of 0.57%. The price of 421 industrial silicon in Tianjin is 9800 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 50 yuan and a daily decrease rate of 0.51% [21]. - The price of industrial silicon powder (553) is 9950 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 50 yuan and a daily decrease rate of 0.50% [21]. Polysilicon - The price of N - type polysilicon re - feeding material is 53 yuan/kg, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 0.25 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 0.47% [46]. - The price of N - type silicon wafers (G10 - 182, 130um) is 1.35 yuan/piece, with no daily or weekly change [46]. III. Basis and Warehouse Receipts Industrial Silicon - The total number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts is 48371 lots, with a decrease of 367 lots compared with the previous period and a decrease rate of 0.56% [36]. - The basis of the industrial silicon main contract in East China (553) and (421) shows certain seasonal characteristics [30][31][32]. Polysilicon - The basis of the polysilicon main contract is 2000 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 450 yuan and a daily decrease rate of 18.37%, and a weekly increase of 1915 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 2252.94% [56]. - The total number of polysilicon warehouse receipts is 9300 lots, with a decrease of 80 lots compared with the previous period [57].

南华期货碳酸锂企业风险管理日报 2025年10月23日 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 研究助理：余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 期货价格区间预测 | 品种 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 碳酸锂LC2601合约 | 强支撑位：72000 | 21.1% | 13.9% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 锂电企业风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | | 操作思路 | 套保工具 | 操作建议 | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 区间 | | 采购管理 | 产成品价格无 相关性 | 未来有生产电池材料的计划， 担心未来采购碳酸锂时价格上 | 为防止成本上涨，企业根据生 产计划需买入对应生产计划的 | 期货 场内/场外期权 | 买入对应期货合约 卖出看跌期权 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View - Today's stock market first declined and then rose. In the afternoon, the upward trend was due to the confirmation of China - US economic and trade consultations, which reduced risk - aversion sentiment, and the upcoming announcement of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, leading to some positive market expectations. The upstream resource industries and banks led the gains, and the dividend index was among the top performers, continuing the defensive trading trend. With the continued slight decline in the trading volume of the two markets, the stock index will continue to fluctuate without substantial incremental information. As subsequent policy - level decisions and China - US economic and trade consultations are gradually finalized, it is expected to increase stock market volatility, bring about phased trend adjustments, and may deviate from the current operating center, waiting for information to drive the market [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Today, the stock index fluctuated slightly stronger. Taking the CSI 300 index as an example, it closed up 0.30%. In terms of capital, the trading volume of the two markets decreased by 239.47 billion yuan. All varieties of stock index futures increased in volume and price [2] Important Information - The European side launched illegal unilateral sanctions against Chinese enterprises on the grounds of their involvement with Russia, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry firmly opposed it. - After consultations between China and the US, He Lifeng, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice - Premier of the State Council, will lead a delegation to Malaysia from October 24th to 27th to hold economic and trade consultations with the US. The two sides will discuss important issues in China - US economic and trade relations in accordance with the important consensus reached in the previous phone calls between the two heads of state this year [3] Strategy Recommendation - In the short term, pay attention to the opportunity of buying straddle option strategies and wait for incremental information to enter the market [4] Stock Index Futures Market Observation | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | 0.32 | 0.58 | 0.34 | 0.19 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 12.8274 | 6.0316 | 14.5145 | 26.0447 | | Trading volume change compared to the previous period (10,000 lots) | 3.134 | 1.3227 | 3.5906 | 7.8086 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 26.4665 | 9.4029 | 25.4337 | 37.5481 | | Open interest change compared to the previous period (10,000 lots) | 1.5352 | 0.5556 | 1.7898 | 3.3845 | [4] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | 0.22 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | 0.22 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 1.38 | | Trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 16439.10 | | Trading volume change compared to the previous period (billion yuan) | - 239.47 | [5]

南华金属日报：黄金&白银：低位震荡 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年10月23日 【行情回顾】 周三贵金属价格整体低位震荡，周边美指震荡，10Y美债收益率走低，美股下跌，比特币下跌，原油回升。 影响因素看，近期伦敦市场金银现货紧缺度明显缓解，ETF租赁利率下降且可租借量已经回到挤仓前水平，同 时伦敦现货较COMEX期货溢价缩减，期权隐波下滑，但仍高于此前常规水平。最终COMEX黄金2512合约收 报4116.6美元/盎司，+0.18%；美白银2512合约收报于48.18美元/盎司， +1%。SHFE黄金2512主力合约 收952.56元/克，-3.92%；SHFE白银2512合约收11404元/千克，-3.86%。消息面，高盛维持黄金2026年底 达到每盎司4900美元的目标价，主要因市场对黄金作为战略投资组合多元化工具的兴趣日益增长，他们认为 充满"粘性"且结构性的购买将持续下去。美国财长威胁升级对俄制裁，引发美国下午盘时段贵金属回升。 【降息预期与基金持仓】 降息预期小幅降温。据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储10月维持利率不变概率 ...

Group 1: Financial Futures - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: Domestically, the expectation of a缓和 in Sino-US trade relations has increased, but short - term expectations for negotiation results should not be too high. Overseas, the US government shutdown has led to data vacuum, and the market's concerns about the economy have eased but risks remain. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October, but the actual impact may be limited. Attention should be paid to the subsequent release of US employment and inflation data [1] - Summary by relevant catalogs: - Macro: Focus on the Fourth Plenary Session and the APEC Summit. The US government shutdown may cause a temporary rise in unemployment. Trump's actions and statements have affected the oil market. India and the US are close to reaching a trade agreement [1] - RMB exchange rate: The RMB exchange rate has basically stabilized within a narrow range. Although the external environment is uncertain, it is expected to remain stable at a reasonable and balanced level. It is recommended to wait and see [2][3] - Stock index: The stock market is in a wait - and - see state. It is necessary to focus on the release of information from the Fourth Plenary Session. Before there is substantial progress in Sino - US trade, the stock index's sensitivity to it has weakened. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying straddle options [4][5] - Treasury bond: The bond market is waiting for news guidance. It is recommended to hold a small number of long positions at low levels and go long on dips for those with empty positions [5][6] - Container shipping European line: The futures price continues to consolidate at a high level. There are both long and short factors. It is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short term. Trend traders can try long positions lightly, and arbitrage traders can pay attention to the opportunity of spread regression [7][8] Group 2: Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: Different non - ferrous metals have different market trends. Precious metals are in a short - term adjustment stage; copper prices are affected by multiple factors and are expected to fluctuate within a range; the alumina industry is in an oversupply situation; zinc spreads continue to expand; nickel and stainless steel are waiting for clear signals; tin is expected to be strong; lithium carbonate is expected to be strong; industrial silicon and polysilicon are in a shock adjustment; lead is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [9][13][16][17][19][20][22][24][25] - Summary by relevant catalogs: - Gold & Silver: In the short - term adjustment stage, pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips in the medium term. London gold has resistance at 4150 and support at 4000; silver has resistance at 50 - 50.5 and strong resistance at 55, support at 48 [9][11] - Copper: In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate within the range of 84000 - 86000. Speculators can go long on dips around 85000 ± 500. Downstream enterprises can adopt a combined strategy to reduce procurement costs, and enterprises with inventory pressure can use call options for hedging [12][13][14] - Aluminum industry chain: Aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level; alumina is expected to be weak; cast aluminum alloy is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Pay attention to the APEC Sino - US meeting and the change of alumina cost [14][15][16] - Zinc: The spread continues to expand. The domestic supply is strong and the demand is weak. Pay attention to the opening of the export window and the possibility of macro - upward drive [17] - Nickel, stainless steel: Continue to fluctuate, waiting for clear signals. Pay attention to Sino - US tariff issues and the change of nickel ore quota in 2026 [17][19] - Tin: It is expected to be strong. The supply is weaker than the demand, and it is recommended to hold long positions [20] - Lithium carbonate: The bottom space is stable, and it is expected to be strong. Pay attention to downstream production scheduling and supply - side resumption [21][22] - Industrial silicon & Polysilicon: Industrial silicon may see a small increase in price due to enterprise production cuts in the dry season, but it is restricted by inventory. Polysilicon has production cuts in the southwest region, and the specific impact needs to be observed [23][24] - Lead: It is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. It is recommended to sell both call and put options to earn option premiums [25] Black Metals - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: Steel products are expected to rebound in the short term but be weak in the long term. Iron ore is under pressure. Coking coal and coke have a strong bottom support but limited rebound space. Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are under pressure due to weak downstream demand and high inventory [26][28][30][31] - Summary by relevant catalogs: - Rebar & Hot - rolled coil: It is expected to rebound in the short term but be weak in the long term. Pay attention to the Fourth Plenary Session and the possibility of policy stimulus [26] - Iron ore: Under the dual pressure of macro - sentiment and fundamentals, it is in a weak shock. The key lies in policy signals [28] - Coking coal & Coke: The coking coal spot market is tight, but the downstream contradiction has intensified, and the rebound space is limited. It is recommended to treat it with a shock mindset [29][30] - Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese: The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory is high. If there is no super - expected stimulus policy, the price will be under pressure [31] Energy and Chemicals - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: Crude oil has a short - term rebound but long - term concerns. LPG follows the rise of crude oil. PTA - PX follows the cost - end shock. MEG is under pressure and is expected to fluctuate at a low level. Methanol fluctuates under pressure. PP's supply pressure is temporarily relieved. PE's supply is strong and demand is weak. Pure benzene and styrene rebound at a low level. Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil are affected by supply and demand. Asphalt is affected by raw material concerns. Glass, soda ash, and caustic soda need to pay attention to supply changes [33][35][37][38][43][44][48][50][53][54][55][56][57][59][60] - Summary by relevant catalogs: - Crude oil: The short - term rebound is due to sanctions, but there are long - term supply surpluses [33][35] - LPG: Follows the rise of crude oil, and the price is expected to fluctuate with crude oil in the short term [36][37] - PTA - PX: Follows the cost - end shock. It is recommended to wait and see on the one - hand and expand the processing fee on TA01 when it is below 280 [38][39][40] - MEG: Under pressure, it is expected to fluctuate at a low level. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options after the macro situation is determined [41][42][43] - Methanol: Fluctuates under pressure. The port inventory accumulation is smoothed, and the price range is 2250 - 2350 [44] - PP: The supply pressure is temporarily relieved, and it is recommended to shrink the L - P spread in the short term [47][48] - PE: The supply is strong and demand is weak, and it is necessary to pay attention to macro and cost changes [49][50][51] - Pure benzene & Styrene: Rebound at a low level. It is recommended to shrink the price spread in the short term and wait and see on the one - hand [52][53] - Fuel oil: The supply tension is relieved, and the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking is bearish [54] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: The supply is narrowed, the demand is weak, and the upward drive is limited [55] - Asphalt: Affected by raw material concerns, it is recommended to wait and see or short at a high level [56] - Glass, Soda ash, Caustic soda: Soda ash has long - term supply pressure; glass has high inventory and weak demand; caustic soda needs to observe the replenishment demand [57][59][60] Pulp, Logs, etc. - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: Pulp and offset paper may continue to rise in the short term but are restricted above. Logs have a new low in the month - spread. Propylene is expected to fluctuate [60][61][62][63][65][66] - Summary by relevant catalogs: - Pulp & Offset paper: Pulp prices are expected to fluctuate upward, and offset paper's decline is temporarily interrupted [60][61][62] - Logs: The month - spread reaches a new low. There are potential supply - reduction factors, and it is recommended to use a covered call strategy for the 01 contract [63][64] - Propylene: Expected to fluctuate. The cost provides short - term support, but there is a lack of upward drive [65][66] Agricultural Products - Report industry investment rating: Not provided - Core view: The short - term supply of live pigs decreases. It is recommended to use a 1 - 5 positive spread and go short on rallies [68][69] - Summary by relevant catalogs: - Live pigs: The short - term supply decreases. Pay attention to the game between farmers' sentiment and price on replenishment, and the implementation of capacity - reduction policies [68][69]

Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Soybean No. 1 Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: October 23, 2025 - Analyst: Bian Shuyang (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0012647) - Research Assistant: Kang Quangui (Qualification Certificate No.: F03148699) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1][2] Core Viewpoints - After a strong rebound, the market shows a series of changes such as rising grain - selling profits, emerging profits on the futures market, and increasing acquisition costs. The short - term upward trend has slowed down. The spot market is mainly stable, and the futures market has a slight correction. The 01 contract closed lower yesterday, bottomed out and rebounded during the session, closing at 4057 yuan, and the night session was consolidated strongly, closing at 4063 yuan [4]. - This year, the restraint and price - holding of the grain - selling end, disasters in the southern producing areas, and rigid debt - repayment needs have changed the previous price trend of unilateral decline during the new harvest season. Currently, the game between buyers and sellers is relatively balanced, but the pressure of new grain listing still needs to be released. The price bottom - grinding time may be extended under the condition of dispersed selling pressure. In addition, due to the good price situation, the state - reserve acquisition has not yet exerted its strength, which also provides a bottom - support expectation for the later market. Overall, the fundamental pressure of the domestic soybean market has been alleviated, and the price performance is better than the same period in previous years. Short - term attention should be paid to the pressure brought by the release of the back - end selling pressure [4]. Price Forecast and Risk Strategies Price Forecast - The price range forecast for the soybean No. 1 11 - contract in the month is 3900 - 4100 yuan, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.93% and a historical percentile of 18.6% [3]. Risk Strategies Inventory Management - For planting entities with high demand for selling new - harvested soybeans in autumn but facing large short - term selling pressure (long spot exposure), it is recommended to take advantage of the futures price rebound to appropriately lock in planting profits by short - selling soybean No. 1 futures (A2601) with a hedging ratio of 30% when the price is above 4100 [3]. - When soybeans are concentrated on the market and the seller's bargaining power weakens (long spot exposure), it is recommended to sell call options (A2511 - C - 4050) to increase the grain - selling price with a hedging ratio of 30% when the option price is between 30 - 50 (holding) [3]. Procurement Management - For those worried about rising raw material prices and increasing procurement costs (short spot exposure), it is recommended to mainly wait to purchase spot in the medium - term and focus on long - term procurement management. Long A2603 and A2605 contracts and wait for the price to bottom out in the fourth quarter [3]. Market Data Spot Price and Basis | Location | Spot Price on 2025 - 10 - 22 (yuan) | Basis | | --- | --- | --- | | Harbin (Domestic Grade 3) | 3890 | - 167 | | Nenjiang (Domestic Grade 3) | 3840 | - 221 | | Jiamusi (Domestic Grade 3) | 3920 | - 141 | | Changchun (Domestic Grade 3) | 3970 | - 91 | [4] Futures Closing Price | Contract | Closing Price on 2025 - 10 - 21 (yuan) | Closing Price on 2025 - 10 - 22 (yuan) | Daily Change (yuan) | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean No. 1 11 | 4038 | 4035 | - 3 | - 0.07% | | Soybean No. 1 01 | 4061 | 4057 | - 4 | - 0.10% | | Soybean No. 1 03 | 4064 | 4064 | 0 | 0.00% | | Soybean No. 1 05 | 4100 | 4101 | 1 | 0.02% | | Soybean No. 1 07 | 4098 | 4096 | - 2 | - 0.05% | | Soybean No. 1 09 | 4100 | 4096 | - 4 | - 0.10% | [7] Core Contradictions and Influencing Factors Core Contradictions - After a strong rebound, the short - term upward trend has slowed down. The new grain listing pressure needs to be released, and it remains to be seen whether the downstream acquisition can provide support. The price bottom - grinding time may be extended, but the state - reserve acquisition provides a bottom - support expectation [4]. Influencing Factors Bullish Factors - The reduction in production in the southern region has led to changes in the acquisition behavior of enterprises, and the grain sources in the northeastern producing areas are valued, which supports the price. - The debt - repayment operation under two - way auctions supports short - term demand, and the rigid acquisition in the sales areas increases as the weather gets colder [6]. Bearish Factors - During the new grain listing period, the spot pressure still needs to be digested, but the selling pressure is relatively dispersed. - Currently, the supply of imported soybeans is sufficient, the prices of oil and meal are low, which suppresses the domestic soybean crushing demand, and the sales of medium - and low - protein soybeans are in trouble [6]

南华期货玉米&淀粉产业日报 2025年10月23日 戴鸿绪（投资咨询证号：Z0021819） 研究助理：康全贵（从业资格证号：F03148699） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 【核心矛盾】 随着华北天气好转，购销活动有效恢复，对行情扰动逐步消散，市场焦点回到新季供应压力表现。期现市场 涨势暂缓，其中现货市场整体平稳，收购端范围扩大，储备库挺价明显，华北经历天气影响后，优质玉米受 到青睐，报价稳中有涨，东北产区卖压继续释放，售粮意愿平稳，低价售粮意愿不足，市场收购情绪稳定， 短期市场处于弱平衡，后期随着卖压累计，仍将考验中下游承接力度，价格或仍有回踩动作。 期货端随着反弹动能释放，价格回落整理运行，周三，玉米各合约普遍收低，主力01合约收于2133元，夜盘 收低于2126元，关注现货卖压释放下期货二次探底风险，01-05为代表的近远价差维持高位，昨日玉米注册仓 单增加12644手至61968手； 淀粉走货好转，库存下降，但水平仍处于高位，关注去库持续性； 周三，CBOT玉米期货收涨0.95%，因预计单产下降支撑期价。 【利多因素】 【利空因素】 | 玉米&淀粉现货价格及主连基差 | | - ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests paying attention to capital market sentiment. It indicates a cautious sentiment in the current capital market, waiting for policy statements from the Fourth Plenary Session on the "15th Five-Year Plan" and the results of Sino-US trade negotiations. If the news significantly boosts A-share sentiment, there may be opportunities to go long on bond futures at low levels. The operation should be based on a bullish mindset without chasing high prices [1][3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Disk Review - On Wednesday, bond futures fluctuated. Except for a slight decline in TS, other varieties closed higher. Spot bond yields fluctuated. The capital market was loose, with DR001 around 1.32%. The open market conducted 13.82 billion yuan in reverse repurchases, with a net injection of 9.47 billion yuan [1]. 3.2. Intraday News - The Ministry of Commerce held a roundtable meeting with foreign-funded enterprises, stating that it will legally approve compliant trade and maintain the stability of the global industrial chain and supply chain. - Minister Li Lecheng of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology proposed to build a new narrative logic and discourse system for new industrialization [2]. 3.3. Market Judgment - Today, the previously popular sectors in the A-share market showed signs of restarting, but the trading volume was insufficient, and the breakthrough was unsuccessful. The bond market was slightly affected by the stock market during the day. Currently, the long-term bond price is near the upper edge of the range, waiting for guidance from the news. Tomorrow, pay attention to the news from the Fourth Plenary Session. If the news significantly boosts A-share sentiment, there may be opportunities to go long on bond futures at low levels. The operation should be based on a bullish mindset without chasing high prices [3]. 3.4. Daily Data of Treasury Bond Futures | Contract | 2025 - 10 - 22 | 2025 - 10 - 21 | Today's Change | Contract Position (Lots) on 2025 - 10 - 22 | Contract Position (Lots) on 2025 - 10 - 21 | Today's Change in Position | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.352 | 102.362 | -0.01 | 76,223 | 77,402 | -1,179 | | TF2512 | 105.715 | 105.695 | 0.02 | 156,292 | 156,544 | -252 | | T2512 | 108.16 | 108.12 | 0.04 | 269,637 | 265,904 | 3,733 | | TL2512 | 115.6 | 115.49 | 0.11 | 178,780 | 183,244 | -4,464 | | TS Basis (CTD) | -0.0316 | -0.0144 | -0.0172 | TS Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 24,145 | 25,832 | -1,687 | | TF Basis (CTD) | -0.0118 | -0.0262 | 0.0144 | TF Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 40,005 | 45,116 | -5,111 | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.1457 | 0.0253 | 0.1204 | T Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 66,248 | 76,221 | -9,973 | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.3552 | 0.2497 | 0.1055 | TL Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 113,354 | 124,727 | -11,373 | [4]