Group 1: Report Overview - Report Date: August 13, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Xu Chenxi from Nanhua Research Institute [1] - Investment Advisory Qualification: China Securities Regulatory Commission Permit [2011] No. 1290 [1] Group 2: Market Performance - On Wednesday, Treasury bond futures opened lower and closed higher across the board, with all cash bond yields declining, and the medium - and long - end yields falling more significantly [1] - The open market had a net withdrawal of 20 billion yuan, but the money market remained loose, with DR001 at 1.316% [1] - The US July CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, lower than expected, while the core CPI growth reached the highest since February, which strengthened the expectation of interest rate cuts [2] Group 3: Market Analysis - The A - share market continued to rise strongly, and the Shanghai Composite Index broke through the high point formed on October 8, 2024, but the impact on the bond market was limited, and the stock - bond跷跷板 effect weakened [3] - In terms of institutional behavior, funds continued to sell, while securities firms turned to buying. In the bullish atmosphere of the A - share market, active funds such as securities firms and funds may sell from time to time, but there is no need to worry too much [3] - After the continuous rise of the A - share market, it may fluctuate, which may provide some space for the bond market. Traders should not chase the rising market, control positions, and lay out next - quarter contracts on dips [3] Group 4: Data Summary Futures Contracts | Contract | 2025 - 08 - 13 Price | 2025 - 08 - 12 Price | Price Change | Last Week's Price | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2509 | 102.37 | 102.338 | 0.032 | 102.37 | | TF2509 | 105.75 | 105.695 | 0.055 | 105.78 | | T2509 | 108.46 | 108.41 | 0.05 | 108.565 | | TL2509 | 118.31 | 118.15 | 0.16 | 119.34 | [4] Contract Positions | Contract Position | 2025 - 08 - 13 | 2025 - 08 - 12 | Change | Last Week | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS Contract Position (lots) | 102880 | 105870 | - 2990 | 31605 | | TF Contract Position (lots) | 177009 | 178301 | - 1292 | 186234 | | T Contract Position (lots) | 236925 | 236006 | 919 | 236282 | | TL Contract Position (lots) | 153096 | 153569 | - 473 | 153142 | [4] Basis | Basis | 2025 - 08 - 13 | 2025 - 08 - 12 | Change | Last Week | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS Basis (CTD) | 0.0396 | 0.0284 | 0.0112 | 0.0136 | | TF Basis (CTD) | 0.023 | 0.0339 | - 0.0109 | 0.0031 | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.0072 | 0.0165 | - 0.0093 | 0.0147 | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.0322 | 0.1906 | - 0.1584 | 0.0147 | [4] Trading Volume | Contract | 2025 - 08 - 13 Volume | 2025 - 08 - 12 Volume | Volume Change | Last Week's Volume | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS Main Contract Volume (lots) | 39500 | 34415 | 5085 | 27216 | | TF Main Contract Volume (lots) | 47424 | 48505 | - 1081 | 47098 | | T Main Contract Volume (lots) | 77715 | 76952 | 763 | 64393 | | TL Main Contract Volume (lots) | 125564 | 123182 | 2382 | 78797 | [4] Repo Rates | Repo Rate | 2025 - 08 - 13 Rate | 2025 - 08 - 12 Rate | Rate Change | Last Week's Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DR001 | 1.3162% | 1.3144% | 0.0018% | 0.0019% | | DR007 | 1.4444% | 1.4404% | 0.004% | - 0.0001% | | DR014 | 1.4688% | 1.4833% | - 0.0145% | - 0.0065% | [4][5] Repo Trading Volume | Repo | 2025 - 08 - 13 Volume (billion yuan) | 2025 - 08 - 12 Volume (billion yuan) | Volume Change (billion yuan) | Last Week's Volume (billion yuan) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | DR001 | 28708.9799 | 28708.9799 | 0 | 28816.6772 | | DR007 | 1081.5185 | 810.5676 | 270.9509 | 957.0987 | | DR014 | 107.5447 | 90.8441 | 16.7006 | 144.4292 | [4][5]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The BDI composite freight index and most sub - ship type freight indices continued to rebound week - on - week, with the BSI freight index's increase expanding. The BPI freight index continued to decline. Industrial product shipments maintained strong demand, and the shipment of wheat and soybean meal among agricultural products brought new demand for (large) handy - sized ships [1][4]. - The FDI index declined across the board on August 12, but the FDI handy - sized ship rental market was active, and most route freight rates rebounded [7]. - In terms of dry bulk shipments, on August 13, the number of ships used for Russian commodity shipments increased significantly. The shipment volumes of wheat and soybean meal increased notably, bringing new demand for (large) handy - sized ships [14][17]. - The number of ships docked at Brazilian ports continued to increase significantly. From August 1st to 12th, the number of dry bulk ships docked at Chinese ports increased, while that in Australian ports decreased, and the number in Indonesian ports increased [17][18]. - The import landed prices of commodities increased significantly, such as Brazilian soybeans, iron ore, thermal coal, and logs [22]. 3. Summary by Directory 2.1 BDI Freight Index Analysis - On August 12, except for the BPI freight index which continued to decline, the BDI composite freight index and most sub - ship type freight indices rebounded week - on - week. The BCI freight index had the largest rebound, driving the BDI's weekly increase to expand. The BDI composite freight index closed at 2017 points, up 5% week - on - week; the BCI freight index closed at 3261 points, up 8.48% week - on - week; the BPI freight index closed at 1595 points, down 1.85% week - on - week; the BSI freight index closed at 1329 points, up 3.91% week - on - week; the BHSI freight index closed at 687 points, up 1.63% week - on - week [4]. 2.2 FDI Far - East Dry Bulk Freight Index - On August 12, the FDI index declined across the board. However, the FDI handy - sized ship rental market strengthened, and most route freight rates rebounded. The FDI composite freight index closed at 1331.54 points, down 0.82% month - on - month; the FDI rental index closed at 1624.18 points, down 0.97% month - on - month. Among them, the cape - sized ship rental index closed at 1734.98 points, down 3.92% month - on - month; the panamax ship rental index closed at 1575.53 points, up 1.48% month - on - month; the large handy - sized ship rental index closed at 1525.1 points, up 1.23% month - on - month; the FDI freight index closed at 1136.44 points, down 0.67% month - on - month [7]. 3.1当日发运国发运用船数量 - On August 13, among major agricultural product shipping countries, Brazil, Russia, and Argentina each used 22 ships for shipping, Canada used 3 ships, and Australia used 1 ship. Among major industrial product shipping countries, Australia used 49 ships, Guinea used 28 ships, Indonesia used 46 ships, Russia used 23 ships, South Africa used 17 ships, Brazil used 18 ships, and the United States used 12 ships [16]. 3.2当日发运量及用船分析 - In terms of agricultural product shipments, 7 ships were used for corn, 24 for wheat, 11 for soybeans, 9 for soybean meal, and 12 for sugar. For industrial product shipments, 112 ships were used for coal, 75 for iron ore, and 20 for other dry goods. In terms of ship types, 27 post - panamax ships were needed for agricultural product shipments, followed by 15 super - handy - sized ships and 16 handy - sized ships. For industrial product shipments, 88 large cape - sized ships were needed, followed by 65 post - panamax ships and 58 super - handy - sized ships [17]. 四、主要港口船舶数量跟踪 - The number of ships docked at Brazilian ports continued to increase significantly. From August 1st to 12th, the number of dry bulk ships docked at Chinese ports increased by 9, that in Australian ports decreased by 6, that in Indonesian ports increased by 5, that in Brazilian ports increased by 10, and that in South African ports remained unchanged [18]. 五、运费与商品价格的关系 - On August 12, Brazilian soybeans were priced at $39/ton, and on August 13, the near - term shipping quote was 4117.68 yuan/ton. On August 12, the latest quote for the BCI C10_14 route freight was $26486/day, and the latest quote for iron ore landed price was $121.8/kiloton. On August 12, the latest quote for the BPI P3A_03 route freight was $13428/day, and the latest quote for thermal coal landed price was 543.42 yuan/ton. On August 8, the handy - sized ship freight index was quoted at 678.2 points, and the price of 4 - meter radiata pine ACFR was $116/cubic meter [22].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Policy - end disturbances may affect the long - term supply of live pigs. Although the fundamentals show an oversupply situation, the policy expectations offer an opportunity for arbitrage to hedge risks [3]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the live pig market. Positive factors include improved macro - sentiment boosting market confidence and a high historical standard - fat price spread. Negative factors involve a high inventory of breeding sows, high inventory of large - scale enterprises, high slaughter volume with losses in slaughter profits, and dull downstream consumption [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast - The strong support level for the main contract price is 13,400. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 10.94%, and its historical percentile over three years is 0.75% [2]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high product inventory worried about inventory impairment, strategies include short - selling live pig futures (LH2511) at a recommended ratio of 20%, selling call options, and buying out - of - the - money put options [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with future procurement plans worried about price increases, strategies include buying long - term live pig contracts according to the procurement plan, selling put options, and buying out - of - the - money call options [2]. 3.3 Spot and Futures Prices - **Spot Prices**: The national average live pig spot price is 13.65 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan (- 0.15%). Prices in different regions vary, with prices in Henan rising 0.02 yuan (0.15%) to 13.68 yuan/kg, and prices in other regions either stable or slightly down [8]. - **Futures Prices**: Closing prices of various live pig futures contracts on the day remained unchanged, with no price fluctuations [9]. 3.4 Spreads and Basis - **Spreads**: Spreads between different futures contracts show various changes. For example, the spread of LH01 - 03 is 1,005 yuan, up 25 yuan (2.55%), while the spread of LH03 - 05 is - 540 yuan, up 25 yuan (- 4.42%) [17][19]. - **Basis**: The basis between the Henan spot price and different futures contracts also shows different changes. For example, the basis of Henan - 01 contract is - 745 yuan, down 40 yuan (5.67%) [19].

南华期货铜风险管理日报 2025年8月13日 南华有色金属研究团队 肖宇非 投资咨询证号：Z0018441 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铜价格波动率（日度） | 最新价格 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率 | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 79020 | 73000-80000 | 11.64% | 22.6% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 铜风险管理建议（日度） | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心价格下跌 | 多 | 做空沪铜主力期货合约 | 沪铜主力期货合约 | 卖出 | 75% | 82000附近 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权 | CU2510C82000 | 卖出 | 25% | 波动率相对稳定时 | | 原料管理 | 原料库存较低，担心价格上涨 | 空 | 做多沪铜主力期货合约 | 沪铜 ...

Report Overview - The report is the Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report dated August 13, 2025, prepared by Nanhua's non-ferrous metals research team [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Core View - Tin prices were slightly stronger on Tuesday, with limited macro influence. On the supply side, the repeated postponement of the full resumption of production in Myanmar's tin mines has significantly supported tin prices and may have a continuous impact. According to Alphamin's financial report, the impact of the production cut at the Bisie tin mine exceeded expectations, pushing up short - term tin prices. There were no significant changes in demand [3] Key Data Summary Price and Volatility - The latest closing price of tin is 270,200 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 14.36%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 26.1% [2] Futures and Spot Data - **Futures**: The latest prices of Shanghai Tin Main, Shanghai Tin Continuous 1, and Shanghai Tin Continuous 3 are all around 270,200 yuan/ton, with no daily change. LME Tin 3M is at 33,770 US dollars/ton, up 55 US dollars (0.16%) daily. The Shanghai - London ratio is 7.95, down 0.03 (-0.38%) [6] - **Spot**: The Shanghai Non - Ferrous tin ingot is at 270,600 yuan/ton, up 3,600 yuan (1.35%) weekly. Other spot products such as 1 tin premium, 40% and 60% tin concentrates, and various types of solder bars also showed price increases in the weekly data [12] Import and Processing Data - The tin import profit and loss is - 15,720.3 yuan/ton, down 856.65 yuan (-5.17%) daily. The 40% and 60% tin ore processing fees are 12,200 yuan/ton and 10,050 yuan/ton respectively, with no daily change [16] Inventory Data - **Shanghai Futures Exchange**: The total tin warehouse receipts are 7,397 tons, up 71 tons (0.97%) daily. The warehouse receipts in Guangdong and Shanghai are 4,911 tons (up 64 tons, 1.32%) and 1,615 tons (up 7 tons, 0.44%) respectively [20] - **LME**: The total LME tin inventory is 1,750 tons, up 40 tons (2.34%) [20] Risk Management Recommendations Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and concerns about price drops, the strategy is to sell 75% of the Shanghai Tin Main futures contract at around 275,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2510C275000 call option when the volatility is appropriate [2] Raw Material Management - For low raw - material inventory and concerns about price increases, the strategy is to buy 50% of the Shanghai Tin Main futures contract at around 230,000 yuan/ton and sell 25% of the SN2510P245000 put option when the volatility is appropriate [2] Influencing Factors Bullish Factors - Sino - US tariff policy easing, the semiconductor sector still being in the expansion cycle, and the resumption of production in Myanmar falling short of expectations [7] Bearish Factors - Repeated tariff policies, the inflow of Myanmar's tin ore into China, and the slowdown of the semiconductor sector's expansion speed and its transition from the expansion cycle to the contraction cycle [5]

【南华观点】 南华贵金属日报:美CPI难阻9月降息 夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年8月13日 【行情回顾】 周二贵金属市场整体震荡，美通胀数据推升9月降息预期，但可能影响后面降息节奏，且风险偏好回升下贵 金属表现相对平淡。周边资产看，美指下跌，美债收益率短跌长升，原油下跌，比特币上涨，美股与上证上 涨，欧股震荡，南华有色金属指数偏强运行。最终COMEX黄金2512合约收报3399.6美元/盎司，-0.15%； 美白银2509合约收报于37.94美元/盎司，+0.4%。 SHFE黄金2510主力合约776.04元/克，-1.12%；SHFE白 银2510合约收9187元/千克，-0.62%。周二晚间公布的7月美CPI环比上涨0.2%，符合预期，同比涨2.7%， 低于预期2.8%；核心CPI环比涨0.3%，符合预期，前值0.2%，同比涨3.1%，高于预期3.0%和前值2.9%，为 2月来最高水平，主要受服务业价格上涨推动。数据后交易员大幅提高了对美联储9月降息的预期，解读为7月 CPI数据整体温和。美联储传声筒Nick Timiraos 随后 ...

Group 1: Report Information - The name of the report is "Iron Alloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report", dated August 12, 2025, and the author is Chen Mintao [1] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - Recent iron alloy price trends mainly follow coal price fluctuations. Current good steel mill profits and high hot metal production support iron alloy demand, but long - term real estate market is低迷, and support from home appliances and cars depends on policy stimulus. Manganese ore supply is relatively sufficient, with weak support for ferrosilicon - manganese. Short - term anti - involution trading sentiment has subsided but the market still has expectations for supply - side contraction. The logic of iron alloy prices lies in coking coal prices, with high medium - to - long - term coking coal valuation trends but severe short - term fluctuations. There is a risk of price correction [4] Group 4: Price Forecast and Hedging Price Forecast - The monthly price forecast for ferrosilicon is between 5,300 and 6,000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.65% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 69.0%. The monthly price forecast for ferrosilicon - manganese is also between 5,300 and 6,000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.48% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 28.5% [3] Hedging - For inventory management, when finished product inventory is high and there is concern about price decline, shorting ferrosilicon and ferrosilicon - manganese futures (SF2509, SM2509) can lock in profits and cover production costs, with a hedging ratio of 15% and recommended entry intervals of 6,200 - 6,250 for SF and 6,400 - 6,500 for SM - For procurement management, when the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, buying ferrosilicon and ferrosilicon - manganese futures (SF2509, SM2509) can lock in procurement costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and recommended entry intervals of 5,100 - 5,200 for SF and 5,300 - 5,400 for SM [3] Group 5: Market Analysis Bullish Factors - The government's strict control policies on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the ferrosilicon - manganese industry [5] - This week, the demand for ferrosilicon in five major steel products was 20,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.01%. The ferrosilicon warehouse receipt inventory was 98,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.89%, and the total ferrosilicon inventory was 170,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.3% [7] - The demand for ferrosilicon - manganese in five major steel products was 125,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.25%. The ferrosilicon - manganese enterprise inventory was 161,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.52%, the ferrosilicon - manganese warehouse receipt was 380,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.34%, and the total ferrosilicon - manganese inventory was 541,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.1%. The profit in the northern region of ferrosilicon - manganese was - 98.14 yuan/ton (an increase of 70.51), and in the southern region was - 425.86 yuan/ton (an increase of 85.56) [8] Bearish Factors - The weekly operating rate of ferrosilicon production enterprises was 34.32%, a week - on - week increase of 0.56%, and the weekly ferrosilicon output was 109,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.5%. The ferrosilicon enterprise inventory was 71,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.45%. The profit in the Inner Mongolia production area of ferrosilicon was - 49 yuan/ton (a decrease of 134), and in the Ningxia production area was 48 yuan/ton (a decrease of 234) [7][8] - In the long term, the real estate market is sluggish, the black overall sector is declining, and there are doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand, resulting in relatively weak demand for ferrosilicon - manganese. The weekly operating rate of ferrosilicon - manganese production enterprises was 43.43%, a week - on - week increase of 1.25%, and the weekly ferrosilicon - manganese output was 195,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.62% [8] Group 6: Daily Data Ferrosilicon Daily Data - On August 12, 2025, compared with August 11, 2025, the ferrosilicon basis in Ningxia increased by 10, the 01 - 05 spread decreased by 14, the 05 - 09 spread increased by 26, the 09 - 01 spread decreased by 12, and the ferrosilicon warehouse receipt increased by 379. The prices of ferrosilicon spot in most regions remained unchanged, and the prices of some raw materials changed slightly [7] Ferrosilicon - Manganese Daily Data - On August 12, 2025, compared with August 11, 2025, the ferrosilicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia decreased by 10, the 01 - 05 spread decreased by 10, the 05 - 09 spread increased by 8, the 09 - 01 spread increased by 2, and the ferrosilicon - manganese warehouse receipt decreased by 187. The prices of ferrosilicon - manganese spot in most regions remained unchanged, and the prices of some raw materials changed slightly [9] Group 7: Seasonal Charts - The report provides seasonal charts for ferrosilicon and ferrosilicon - manganese, including market price, basis, futures spreads, and inventory, which can help analyze historical price and inventory trends [11][20][32]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Macro and Financial Futures - Domestic policies have raised market expectations for future livelihood - related policies, but demand recovery takes time. Economic data shows a marginal downward pressure, and incremental policies may be introduced if economic data continues to weaken. Tariff risks are postponed, and overseas market's risk - preference has been corrected, with an increased expectation of a US interest rate cut [1]. - In the short term, the USD/CNY spot exchange rate is expected to find support in the range of 7.16 - 7.22, with a likely fluctuation center below 7.20. The market's expectation of a US interest rate cut is influenced by economic data, and the US inflation situation is mixed [3]. - The stock index is cautiously optimistic in the short term but should be wary of corrections. The bond market is still suppressed by the stock - bond seesaw effect, and the shipping index futures are expected to continue to fluctuate [5][6]. Commodities Precious Metals - Gold and silver: The US CPI data has increased the expectation of a September interest rate cut. In the medium - to - long - term, it may be bullish, while in the short - term, it is bearish but shows signs of stabilizing [9][11]. Base Metals - Copper: The lower support for copper prices can be raised from 77,000 yuan/ton to 78,000 yuan/ton, and it is recommended to make low - level purchases [12][13]. - Aluminum: Aluminum is expected to trade in a high - level range, alumina to fluctuate, and cast aluminum alloy to show a similar trend. It is recommended to conduct range - bound operations for aluminum, be cautious of alumina's high - level decline, and consider arbitrage operations for cast aluminum alloy [14][15]. - Nickel and stainless steel: They are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [16]. - Tin: The price has been slightly boosted due to production shortfalls at Bisie mine, and it is expected to rise slightly [17][18]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: The short - term trend is downward. With the weakening of seasonal demand, the risk of supply surplus increases, and attention should be paid to downward risks [30][32]. - LPG: The market remains in a loose situation, with an increase in warehouse receipts [34]. - PX - PTA: It is recommended to buy low to expand the PTA processing margin [36]. - MEG - bottle chips: Ethylene glycol is expected to run strongly with coal, and it is recommended to buy on dips. Bottle chips' absolute price fluctuates with the cost side [38][39]. - Methanol: The 09 contract has a weak fundamental outlook [40]. - PP: In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate strongly under the influence of sentiment [43]. - PE: It mainly follows macro - sentiment fluctuations, and the future situation depends on the degree of demand recovery [45]. - PVC: It should be treated as a short - position target [47]. - Pure benzene and styrene: They are expected to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to sell high to shrink the pure benzene - styrene spread [48][49]. - Fuel oil: It remains weak, and low - sulfur fuel oil is dragged down by crude oil and suppresses the price [50]. - Asphalt: It follows the cost side and oscillates weakly [51]. - Urea: The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly [52]. - Glass, soda ash, and caustic soda: The market expectations are volatile. Soda ash has a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern; glass is in a weak - balance state; caustic soda has a near - weak and far - strong pattern [53][54][56]. Others - Pulp: It is expected to oscillate upward, and it is recommended to go long on far - month contracts on dips [57]. - Logs: The 09 contract is recommended to go long on dips, and a positive spread arbitrage can be considered for the 09 - 11 contracts [58]. - Propylene: The spot market continues to rise slightly [58]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro and Financial Futures Macro - **Market Information**: Multiple policies have been introduced, including consumption loan subsidies and service - industry loan subsidies. The US CPI is lower than expected, and the market's expectation of a US interest rate cut has increased [1]. - **Core Logic**: Domestic policies have raised market expectations, but demand recovery is slow. Overseas, the risk - preference has been corrected, and the inflation situation is mixed [1]. RMB Exchange Rate - **Market Review**: The on - shore RMB/USD exchange rate declined, and the central parity rate was adjusted downward [1]. - **Core Logic**: Externally, the US economic situation and inflation data affect the market's expectation of a US interest rate cut. Internally, the central bank's guidance and the economic fundamentals impact the exchange rate [3]. Stock Index - **Market Review**: The stock index rose with increased trading volume, and the futures contracts rose with reduced volume [5]. - **Core Logic**: Although the stock index rose, the number of falling stocks increased, and the optimism declined. The US inflation data may bring some positive support to the A - share market, but corrections should be watched out for [5]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Review**: Bond futures fell, and spot bond yields rose. The bond market is affected by the stock - bond seesaw effect [6]. Shipping Index Futures - **Market Review**: The shipping index futures prices opened lower and then rebounded, with most contracts closing slightly lower [7]. - **Core Logic**: The suspension of the 24% tariff between China and the US has a neutral impact, and the futures prices are expected to continue to fluctuate [8]. Commodities Precious Metals - **Market Review**: Gold and silver prices fluctuated, with the US inflation data affecting the market's expectation of a US interest rate cut [9]. - **Core Logic**: The market's expectation of a US interest rate cut has increased, and the medium - to - long - term trend is bullish, while the short - term is bearish but stabilizing [11]. Base Metals - **Copper** - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper index opened low and closed high [12]. - **Core Logic**: The lower support for copper prices has been raised, and it is recommended to make low - level purchases [13]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain** - **Market Review**: Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy prices showed different trends [14]. - **Core Logic**: Aluminum is in a high - level range, alumina has a weak fundamental outlook, and cast aluminum alloy has a relatively good fundamental situation [14][15]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel** - **Market Review**: They continued to fluctuate in the short term [16]. - **Tin** - **Market Review**: The tin index rose slightly [17]. - **Core Logic**: Supply - side factors have boosted the price, and the short - term trend is upward [18]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil** - **Market Review**: The price declined [30]. - **Core Logic**: The short - term trend is downward, and the risk of supply surplus increases [32]. - **LPG** - **Market Review**: The futures prices rose, and warehouse receipts increased [34]. - **Core Logic**: The market remains loose [34]. - **PX - PTA** - **Market Review**: The prices followed the cost side to decline [34][35]. - **Core Logic**: It is recommended to expand the PTA processing margin [36]. - **MEG - bottle chips** - **Market Review**: Ethylene glycol's inventory increased, and bottle chips' situation was related to the cost side [37][38]. - **Core Logic**: Ethylene glycol is recommended to buy on dips, and bottle chips' price fluctuates with the cost side [38][39]. - **Methanol** - **Market Review**: The 09 contract price was at a certain level [39]. - **Core Logic**: The 09 contract has a weak fundamental outlook [40]. - **PP** - **Market Review**: The price fluctuated, and the inventory increased [40][42]. - **Core Logic**: It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [43]. - **PE** - **Market Review**: The price rose, and the inventory increased [44]. - **Core Logic**: It follows macro - sentiment fluctuations [45]. - **PVC** - **Market Review**: The price situation was related to supply, demand, and inventory [45][46]. - **Core Logic**: It should be treated as a short - position target [47]. - **Pure benzene and styrene** - **Market Review**: The prices fluctuated, and the inventory changed [47][49]. - **Core Logic**: They are expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to shrink the spread [48][49]. - **Fuel oil** - **Market Review**: The price was weak, and the low - sulfur fuel oil was affected by crude oil [50]. - **Core Logic**: Fuel oil remains weak, and low - sulfur fuel oil is under pressure [50]. - **Asphalt** - **Market Review**: The price followed the cost side to decline [51]. - **Core Logic**: It oscillates weakly following the cost side [51]. - **Urea** - **Market Review**: The price was at a certain level, and the inventory decreased [52]. - **Core Logic**: The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly [52]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda** - **Market Review**: The prices of the three products showed different trends, and the inventory situation varied [52][54][56]. - **Core Logic**: Soda ash has a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern; glass is in a weak - balance state; caustic soda has a near - weak and far - strong pattern [53][54][56]. Others - **Pulp** - **Market Review**: The price rose slightly, and the spot price was stable [57]. - **Core Logic**: It is expected to oscillate upward, and it is recommended to go long on far - month contracts on dips [57]. - **Logs** - **Market Review**: The price was in a certain range, and the inventory was low [57]. - **Core Logic**: The 09 contract is recommended to go long on dips, and a positive spread arbitrage can be considered for the 09 - 11 contracts [58]. - **Propylene** - **Market Review**: The price rose slightly, and the device had some changes [58]. - **Core Logic**: The spot market continues to rise slightly [58].

Group 1: Report Core View - The current low inventory of old cotton supports cotton prices, but downstream demand has not recovered, so short - term cotton price drivers are insufficient and may remain volatile. As the seasonal consumption peak approaches, downstream sales are expected to improve, and the cotton price center may rise with the recovery of demand. Attention should be paid to downstream inventory preparation and the adjustment of this week's USDA supply - demand forecast report [4] Group 2: Bullish Factors - This year, due to the increase in spinning capacity in Xinjiang and a significant reduction in imported cotton, the rigid consumption of downstream cotton has increased, the inventory of Xinjiang cotton has decreased rapidly, and the overall inventory level is low. As of the end of July, the total industrial and commercial cotton inventory in the country was 3.0882 million tons, a decrease of 0.6446 million tons from the end of June, which supports cotton prices [5] - As the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, downstream inventory - preparation willingness is expected to improve marginally [5] Group 3: Bearish Factors - Recently, the spinning profit of inland yarn mills has been poor, the overall load has further declined, the load of cloth mills has increased slightly, the number of sampling orders has increased slightly, but overall sales are still sluggish, and finished products have accumulated slightly [6] - The growth progress of new cotton in Xinjiang is fast, the flower positions are generally concentrated on the 9th, 10th, and 11th fruiting branches, and the overall growth is good. An optimistic outlook for the new - year's output is maintained [6] Group 4: Cotton Price Forecast and Risk Management - The predicted monthly price range of cotton is 13,600 - 14,400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.0638 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.0713 [3] - For inventory management with high inventory, to prevent inventory losses, short Zhengzhou cotton futures can be sold at 14,200 - 14,400 with a hedging ratio of 50%. Selling call options (CF601C14400) at 250 - 300 with a hedging ratio of 75% can also reduce costs and lock in the spot selling price if the cotton price rises [3] - For procurement management with low regular inventory, to prevent the increase in procurement costs due to rising cotton prices, Zhengzhou cotton futures can be bought at 13,600 - 13,800 with a hedging ratio of 50%. Selling put options (CF601P13600) at 200 - 250 with a hedging ratio of 75% can reduce procurement costs and lock in the spot cotton purchase price if the cotton price falls [3] Group 5: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Futures Prices - Cotton 01 closed at 13,980, up 100 or 0.72% [7] - Cotton 05 closed at 13,910, up 80 or 0.58% [7] - Cotton 09 closed at 13,735, up 55 or 0.4% [8] - Cotton yarn 01 closed at 19,980, up 180 or 0.91% [8] - Cotton yarn 05 closed at 20,070, down 100% (data may have an issue here) [8] - Cotton yarn 09 closed at 19,995, up 95 or 0.48% [8] Group 6: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Price Spreads - The cotton basis was 1,197, down 284 [9] - The spread between Cotton 01 and 05 was 70, up 20 [9] - The spread between Cotton 05 and 09 was 175, up 25 [9] - The spread between Cotton 09 and 01 was - 245, down 45 [9] - The spread between cotton and cotton yarn was 5,985, down 30 [9] - The spread between domestic and foreign cotton was 1,776, down 52 [9] - The spread between domestic and foreign cotton yarn was - 567, unchanged [9] Group 7: Domestic and Foreign Cotton Price Indexes - CCI 3128B was priced at 15,177, up 16 or 0.11% [10] - CCI 2227B was priced at 13,303, up 15 or 0.11% [10] - CCI 2129B was priced at 15,451, up 17 or 0.11% [10] - FCI Index S was priced at 13,617, up 17 or 0.13% [10] - FCI Index M was priced at 13,402, up 17 or 0.13% [10] - FCI Index L was priced at 13,102, unchanged [10]

国债期货日报 2025年8月12日 债市仍受压制 观点：逢低布局下季合约 南华研究院 徐晨曦（Z0001908） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 盘面点评： 期债日内探底回升，全线收跌，TF相对较强，TL最弱。现券收益率今日继续上行，短端幅度较小，超长端上 行幅度较大，但整体幅度较昨日缓和。公开市场净回笼461亿元。资金利率略微上行，DR001在1.32%左右。 日内消息： 1.中美斯德哥尔摩经贸会谈联合声明：自2025年8月12日起再次暂停实施24%的关税90天。 行情研判： 债市目前仍受股债跷跷板效应影响。盘前中美关税如期暂缓90天的消息一定程度上对股市继续上涨提供了情 绪助力，今日上证指数继续向去年10月8日形成的高点发起冲击。机构行为方面，基金与券商在卖出债券。当 下股市牛市氛围浓厚，即便出现一定震荡，大盘还将继续向上，对债市的压制将在一段时间内持续，但债市 在基本面与政策面主导下，调整存在边界。交易盘可逢低布局下季合约，可将买入间隔适当拉大。 | 数据一览 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...