Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Coal and Coke Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: October 24, 2025 [1] - Research Team: Nanhua Research Institute, Black Research Team [2] - Analyst: Zhang Xuan [2] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [2] Group 2: Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategy Price Forecast - **Coking Coal**: The monthly price range is predicted to be between 1,100 and 1,350. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 37.43%, and its historical percentile is 71.00% [3]. - **Coke**: The monthly price range is predicted to be between 1,550 and 1,850. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 30.04%, and its historical percentile is 63.17% [3]. Risk Management Strategy - **Inventory Hedging**: For coke, when steel mills' profit margins shrink and coke enterprises face difficulties in price hikes, coke enterprises worried about future price drops can short - sell the J2601 contract. The recommended hedging ratios are 25% at the price range of (1,780, 1,830) and 50% at (1,830 - 1,880) [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For coking coal, due to factors like macro - sentiment fluctuations, seasonal low mine开工率, and potential supply disruptions, coking plants worried about future price increases can buy the JM2605 contract. The recommended hedging ratios are 25% at the price range of (1,150, 1,180) and 50% at (1,120, 1,150) [3]. Group 3: Black Warehouse Receipt and Market Analysis Black Warehouse Receipt Data - **Steel Products**: On October 24, 2025, the inventory of rebar was 150,419 tons (up 1,437 tons day - on - day and down 148,632 tons week - on - week), and the inventory of hot - rolled coils was 137,065 tons (down 4,799 tons day - on - day and down 11,346 tons week - on - week) [4]. - **Raw Materials**: The inventory of iron ore was 700 lots (unchanged day - on - day and down 700 lots week - on - week), coking coal was 100 lots (unchanged day - on - day and down 100 lots week - on - week), coke was 2,070 lots (unchanged day - on - day and down 40 lots week - on - week), ferrosilicon was 11,163 contracts (down 21 contracts day - on - day and down 1,042 contracts week - on - week), and ferromanganese was 44,876 contracts (down 960 contracts day - on - day and down 3,064 contracts week - on - week) [4]. Market Analysis - **Positive Factors**: In Q4, domestic mine开工率 is restricted by policies, coking coal supply elasticity is limited; the winter - storage scale in 2025 may be better than last year, supporting coal and coke prices; recent downstream restocking and reduced mine开工率 have improved coking coal inventory, and short - term coke prices may be strong due to supply tightness and cost support [4][6]. - **Negative Factors**: In the short term, steel inventory pressure is high, and if steel contradictions cannot be resolved, it may trigger a negative feedback risk in the black - metal market [7]. Group 4: Price Data Coal and Coke Futures Price - **Coking Coal**: On October 24, 2025, the warehouse - receipt cost of Tangshan Mongolian No. 5 coking coal was 1,238 yuan/ton (unchanged day - on - day and up 38 yuan/ton week - on - week), and the basis of the main contract was - 11.0 yuan/ton (up 10.0 yuan/ton day - on - day and down 31.5 yuan/ton week - on - week) [8]. - **Coke**: The warehouse - receipt cost of Rizhao Port wet - quenched coke was 1,637 yuan/ton (unchanged day - on - day and up 43 yuan/ton week - on - week), and the basis of the main contract was - 120.3 yuan/ton (up 10.5 yuan/ton day - on - day and down 38.5 yuan/ton week - on - week) [8]. Coal and Coke Spot Price - **Coking Coal**: The ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal was 1,600 yuan/ton (unchanged day - on - day and up 50 yuan/ton week - on - week), and the self - pick - up price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal at the 288 Port was 1,127 yuan/ton (unchanged day - on - day and up 76 yuan/ton week - on - week) [9]. - **Coke**: The ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke was 1,330 yuan/ton (unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week), and the ex - factory price of Lvliang quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke was 1,530 yuan/ton (unchanged day - on - day and week - on - week) [10]. Profit Data - **Coking Profit**: The immediate coking profit was - 44 yuan/ton (down 6 yuan/ton day - on - day and down 42 yuan/ton week - on - week) [10]. - **Import Profit**: The import profit of Mongolian coal under long - term contracts was 405 yuan/ton (up 32 yuan/ton day - on - day and up 87 yuan/ton week - on - week), and the import profit of Australian medium - volatile coal was 164 yuan/ton (up 122 yuan/ton day - on - day and up 112 yuan/ton week - on - week) [10].

股指期货日报 2025年10月24日 王映(投资咨询证号：Z0016367) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 情绪受定调提振 市场回顾 核心观点 今日股市震荡走强，早评中我们提到，二十届四中全会公报整体定调将提振市场信心，今日走势基本在预期 范围之内。由于会议将高质量发展，科技、国防放在了较为重要的位置，今日行业层面通信、电子、国防军 工领涨。关于提振内需、做强国内大循环等相关方面此前会议也有所提及，因而需等待后续进一步细节公 布，预计会议相关影响会在短时间内消化，后续市场将进一步追踪更多政策细节以及中美贸易磋商。中长期 来看，科技概念强势在定调引导的背景之下或能延续，可持续关注相关行业交易机会。短期继续持仓观望为 主。 今日股指震荡上行，小盘股走势偏强，以沪深300指数为例，收盘上涨1.18%。从资金面来看，两市成交额回 升3303.00亿元。期指方面，IH放量上涨，其余各品种均缩量上涨。 重要资讯 1、中国物流与采购联合会今天发起《关于反对"内卷式"竞争 促进仓储行业高质量发展的倡议》。 2、据深圳特区报，记者从深圳市住房公积金管理中心获悉，深圳公积金"阶段性提高租房提取比例至 100% ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - Affected by news that the US may launch a military strike on Venezuela, both crude oil and asphalt prices have risen recently. As Venezuelan crude oil accounts for over 20% of China's asphalt refineries' oil use, the market is worried about supply disruptions. However, short - term Venezuelan crude oil shipments have not been substantially affected [3]. - Refinery operations are stable, and overall asphalt supply has changed little. Due to the National Day holiday, demand is weak, with the market mainly consuming social inventories. The short - term peak season has not exceeded expectations. Inventory structure has improved, with stable and low - pressure refinery inventories and declining social inventories [3]. - Issues such as raw material shortages and tight heavy oil supplies have not been substantially alleviated, so the asphalt crack spread remains high. In the future, the cost of crude oil is expected to decline as OPEC continues to increase production [3]. - The short - term peak season for asphalt has not exceeded expectations. With increased external disturbances, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term or look for pressure levels to short after the price rises [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price and Volatility - The predicted monthly price range for the asphalt main contract is 3000 - 3450, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 17.25% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 25.49% [2]. 2. Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - When product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, to prevent inventory losses, 25% of the inventory can be hedged by shorting the bu2512 asphalt futures contract at an entry range of 3650 - 3750. Additionally, 20% of the inventory can be hedged by selling the bu2512C3500 call option at an entry range of 30 - 40 to reduce capital costs [2]. Procurement Management - When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, to prevent price increases from raising procurement costs, 50% of the inventory can be hedged by buying the bu2512 asphalt futures contract at an entry range of 3300 - 3400. Also, 20% of the inventory can be hedged by selling the bu2512C3500 put option at an entry range of 25 - 35 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs [2]. 3. Market Influencing Factors Bullish Factors - Asphalt refinery inventory pressure is low, providing a basis for price support from manufacturers [6]. - In Shandong, Shengxing has resumed asphalt production, while Qicheng and Fengli have switched to producing residual oil. In the East China region, some major refineries have reduced production [6]. - There is an anti - cut - throat competition atmosphere, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has emphasized resisting disorderly price wars [6]. - There is a possibility of an escalation of the conflict between the US and Venezuela [7]. Bearish Factors - Recently, the arrival of Venezuelan crude oil in China has increased [12]. - OPEC+ will continue to increase production in November [12]. - The escalation of US - China tariffs has weakened the overall sentiment in the risk market [12]. 4. Price and Basis Data - On October 24, 2025, the spot prices of asphalt in Shandong, the Yangtze River Delta, North China, and South China were 3340 yuan/ton, 3470 yuan/ton, 3340 yuan/ton, and 3400 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of 0 and weekly changes of - 40 yuan/ton, - 30 yuan/ton, - 70 yuan/ton, and - 40 yuan/ton [8]. - The basis of Shandong, Yangtze River Delta, North China, and South China spot for the 12 - contract asphalt on October 24, 2025, was 25 yuan/ton, 155 yuan/ton, 25 yuan/ton, and 85 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of 1 and weekly changes of - 155 yuan/ton, - 145 yuan/ton, - 185 yuan/ton, and - 155 yuan/ton [8]. - The crack spread of Shandong spot to Brent crude oil was 113.8054 yuan/barrel, with a weekly change of - 35.9912 yuan/barrel. The crack spread of the futures main contract to Brent crude oil was 106.7006 yuan/barrel, with a daily change of 3.8123 yuan/barrel and a weekly change of - 0.6403 yuan/barrel [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Although in the medium to long - term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the precious metals price, in the short - term, the market has entered an adjustment phase. Investors should look for mid - term opportunities to buy on dips and hold existing long positions cautiously. The resistance for London gold is 4150, and the support is 4000; for silver, the resistance is 50 - 50.5, and the support is 47.5 [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, precious metals prices continued to fluctuate and adjust. The US dollar index fluctuated, the 10Y US Treasury yield rebounded, European and American stock indices rose slightly, Bitcoin rebounded, and crude oil had a large increase. The COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $4143.2 per ounce, up 1.91%; the US silver 2512 contract closed at $48.65 per ounce, up 2.03%. The SHFE gold 2512 main contract closed at 942.28 yuan per gram, down 0.77%; the SHFE silver 2512 contract closed at 11467 yuan per kilogram, up 1.24% [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest rate cut expectations continued to cool slightly. According to CME "FedWatch" data, the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in October is 1.7%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 98.3%. For December, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 6.5%, a 50 - basis - point cut is 93.4%, and a 75 - basis - point cut is 0.2%. For January, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 3.2%, a 50 - basis - point cut is 48.2%, and a 75 - basis - point cut is 48.6%. The SPDR Gold ETF holdings remained at 1052.37 tons, while the iShares Silver ETF holdings decreased by 128.41 tons to 15469.2 tons. The SHFE silver inventory decreased by 28.3 tons to 663.4 tons, and the SGX silver inventory decreased by 57.4 tons to 1050.7 tons as of the week ending October 17 [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - In terms of data, pay attention to the US September CPI data, which was postponed due to the US government shutdown and is scheduled to be released tonight. In terms of events, this week is the quiet period before the Fed's October 31 FOMC meeting [4]. 3.4 Price and Inventory Data - **Price Data**: The SHFE gold main - continuous contract was at 942.28 yuan per gram, down 1.08%; SGX gold TD was at 940.14 yuan per gram, down 0.92%; CME gold main contract was at $4143.2 per ounce, up 0.65%. The SHFE silver main - continuous contract was at 11467 yuan per kilogram, up 0.55%; SGX silver TD was at 11463 yuan per kilogram, up 0.72%; CME silver main contract was at $48.65 per ounce, up 0.98%. The SHFE - TD gold spread was 2.14 yuan per gram, down 42.47%; the SHFE - TD silver spread was 4 yuan per kilogram, down 50% [5]. - **Inventory and Position Data**: SHFE gold inventory was 87015 kilograms, unchanged; CME gold inventory was 1211.7586 tons, down 0.02%; SHFE gold positions were 189131 lots, down 1.9%. SHFE silver inventory was 663.366 tons, down 4.09%; CME silver inventory was 15488.954 tons, down 0.61%; SGX silver inventory was 1050.675 tons, down 5.18%. SHFE silver positions were 377229 lots, down 2.33%; SLV silver positions were 15469.202584 tons, down 0.82% [8]. 3.5 Other Market Data - The US dollar index was at 98.9332, up 0.05%; the US dollar against the RMB was at 7.125, down 0.03%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was at 46734.61 points, up 0.31%. WTI crude oil spot was at $61.79 per barrel, up 5.62%. LmeS copper 03 was at $10817 per ton, up 1.49%. The 10Y US Treasury yield was at 4.01%, up 1.01%; the 10Y US real interest rate was at 1.71%, up 1.79%; the 10 - 2Y US Treasury yield spread was at 0.53%, up 1.92% [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Views of the Report - Domestic and international economic situations are complex. Domestically, the expectation of a缓和 in Sino-US trade relations has increased, but short - term expectations for negotiation results should not be too high. The GDP growth rate in Q3 slowed marginally, and the GDP deflator rebounded. Fiscal policy is clear in supporting the economy, and the key to economic recovery lies in the repair rhythm and strength of domestic demand. Overseas, the US government shutdown has led to a data vacuum, and the market's concerns about the economy have eased, but risks still exist. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October, but the actual impact may be limited [2]. - The RMB exchange rate is expected to remain basically stable at a reasonable and balanced level, with an operating range of 7.10 - 7.15 this week, despite external uncertainties [4]. - The release of the Fourth Plenary Session communique is expected to boost market confidence. The short - term sentiment of the technology industry and the long - term technology concept are expected to be positive. It is recommended to hold positions and wait and not chase high [8]. - For bonds, if the stock market continues to rebound, there may be further lows in the bond market. It is advisable to hold long positions at low levels and go long on dips [9]. - The container shipping index (European line) futures are expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short term, and a breakthrough requires the resonance of fundamentals and policies [14]. - Precious metals are in a short - term adjustment phase, and it is recommended to pay attention to mid - term opportunities to buy on dips and continue to hold bottom positions cautiously [16]. - The "15th Five - Year Plan" is expected to boost the copper industry, and it is recommended that speculators sell at high levels near the pressure level and buy on dips. Downstream enterprises can adopt a combined strategy, and enterprises with inventory can sell call options for hedging [18]. - Aluminum is expected to be in a high - level shock, alumina to be in a weak operation, and cast aluminum alloy to be in a high - level shock [20][21]. - Zinc is expected to be in a strong shock [21]. - Nickel and stainless steel are expected to be in a shock - up trend. The short - term follow - up of nickel may have a certain catch - up, and stainless steel may be in a wide - range shock [22][23]. - Tin is expected to be bullish in the short term, and it is recommended to buy low and sell high [24]. - The demand for lithium carbonate is good, and the futures price is expected to be supported in stages [25]. - Industrial silicon may see a slight increase in price as enterprises are expected to cut production in the dry season, but the price increase is limited by inventory. Polysilicon's fundamentals are still bearish [28]. - Lead is expected to be in a high - level shock in the short term, and it is recommended to sell options on both sides to earn premiums [29]. - Steel products are expected to be in a short - term shock - up and a long - term weak trend [30][31]. - Iron ore is expected to be bearish, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [34]. - Coking coal and coke are suitable for long - allocation in the black market. It is recommended to take profits when the price rebounds to the upper limit of the reference range [36]. - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are under pressure, and their prices will be under pressure if there is no unexpected stimulus policy [37]. - Crude oil may fall back if the geopolitical situation does not escalate, and the medium - and long - term market is still suppressed by fundamental negatives [40]. - LPG is expected to fluctuate with crude oil in the short term [42]. - PTA - PX is expected to follow the cost - end and the macro - emotion fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see on the long side and expand the processing fee on dips below 265 [46]. - PP's supply pressure is temporarily relieved, and its short - term fundamentals support narrowing the L - P spread [50]. - PE is in a situation of both supply and demand increasing, and its fundamental driving force is relatively limited [53]. - Pure benzene and styrene follow the rebound of crude oil. It is recommended to narrow the spread between pure benzene and styrene on rallies in the short term and wait and see on the long side [55]. - High - sulfur fuel oil is bearish, and low - sulfur fuel oil has limited upward driving force [56][57]. - Asphalt is recommended to wait and see in the short term or short after the price rises [58]. - Rubber is expected to be in a shock, and it is recommended to wait and see on the long side [59]. - Urea is expected to be in a weak trend in the medium term, and it is necessary to pay attention to new export quotas [61]. - Soda ash has a long - term supply pressure, and glass and caustic soda are in a low - level shock [62][63][65]. - Pulp and offset paper may continue to rise in the short term, but there are still restrictions above [66][67]. - Logs' far - month bullish expectations may be weakened, and it is recommended to adopt a covered call strategy for the 01 contract [68]. - Propylene is expected to rebound slightly with the cost - end and then maintain a shock pattern [69]. - For live pigs, it is recommended to short on rallies, paying attention to farmers' sentiment and de - capacity policies [72]. - Oilseeds' prices are affected by Sino - US and Sino - Canadian negotiations. It is recommended to hold the covered call option sold at 3300 for M2601 [74][75]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: Pay attention to US inflation data. Sino - US economic and trade consultations will be held in Malaysia from October 24th to 27th. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China passed the "15th Five - Year Plan" proposal [1]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: The RMB exchange rate was basically stable during the important meeting, with a narrow - range operation of 7.10 - 7.15. It is expected to remain stable within this range this week, and attention should be paid to the release of the US CPI data on October 24th [3][4]. - **Stock Index**: The release of the Fourth Plenary Session communique is expected to boost market confidence. It is recommended to hold positions and wait and not chase high [6][8]. - **Treasury Bonds**: If the stock market continues to rebound, the bond market may have further lows. It is advisable to hold long positions at low levels and go long on dips [9]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The futures price has been rising for three consecutive days. There are both positive and negative factors in the short term, and it is expected to maintain a high - level shock [11][12][13][14]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: In the short term, precious metals are in an adjustment phase. It is recommended to pay attention to mid - term opportunities to buy on dips and continue to hold bottom positions cautiously [16]. - **Copper**: The "15th Five - Year Plan" is expected to boost the copper industry. Speculators can sell on rallies and buy on dips. Downstream enterprises can adopt a combined strategy, and enterprises with inventory can sell call options for hedging [16][18]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be in a high - level shock, alumina in a weak operation, and cast aluminum alloy in a high - level shock [18][20][21]. - **Zinc**: Zinc is expected to be in a strong shock [21]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel and stainless steel are expected to be in a shock - up trend. Nickel may have a certain catch - up, and stainless steel may be in a wide - range shock [22][23]. - **Tin**: Tin is expected to be bullish in the short term, and it is recommended to buy low and sell high [24]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The demand for lithium carbonate is good, and the futures price is expected to be supported in stages [25]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon may see a slight price increase, and polysilicon's fundamentals are still bearish [28]. - **Lead**: Lead is expected to be in a high - level shock in the short term, and it is recommended to sell options on both sides to earn premiums [29]. Black Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Steel products are expected to be in a short - term shock - up and a long - term weak trend [30][31]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore is expected to be bearish, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [34]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coking coal and coke are suitable for long - allocation in the black market. It is recommended to take profits when the price rebounds to the upper limit of the reference range [36]. - **Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese**: Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are under pressure, and their prices will be under pressure if there is no unexpected stimulus policy [37]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Crude oil may fall back if the geopolitical situation does not escalate, and the medium - and long - term market is still suppressed by fundamental negatives [40]. - **LPG**: LPG is expected to fluctuate with crude oil in the short term [42]. - **PTA - PX**: PTA - PX follows the cost - end and macro - emotion fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see on the long side and expand the processing fee on dips below 265 [46]. - **PP**: PP's supply pressure is temporarily relieved, and its short - term fundamentals support narrowing the L - P spread [50]. - **PE**: PE is in a situation of both supply and demand increasing, and its fundamental driving force is relatively limited [53]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: Pure benzene and styrene follow the rebound of crude oil. It is recommended to narrow the spread between pure benzene and styrene on rallies in the short term and wait and see on the long side [55]. - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil is bearish, and low - sulfur fuel oil has limited upward driving force [56][57]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt is recommended to wait and see in the short term or short after the price rises [58]. - **Rubber and 20 -号 Rubber**: Rubber is expected to be in a shock, and it is recommended to wait and see on the long side [59]. - **Urea**: Urea is expected to be in a weak trend in the medium term, and it is necessary to pay attention to new export quotas [61]. - **Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda**: Soda ash has a long - term supply pressure, and glass and caustic soda are in a low - level shock [62][63][65]. - **Pulp and Offset Paper**: Pulp and offset paper may continue to rise in the short term, but there are still restrictions above [66][67]. - **Logs**: Logs' far - month bullish expectations may be weakened, and it is recommended to adopt a covered call strategy for the 01 contract [68]. - **Propylene**: Propylene is expected to rebound slightly with the cost - end and then maintain a shock pattern [69]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: It is recommended to short on rallies, paying attention to farmers' sentiment and de - capacity policies [72]. - **Oilseeds**: Oilseeds' prices are affected by Sino - US and Sino - Canadian negotiations. It is recommended to hold the covered call option sold at 3300 for M2601 [74][75].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The domestic soybean market is supported by bullish factors in the short term, with strong buying enthusiasm from funds, but the industry should be cautious about hedging after the sharp rise [3] - The current upward trend of the soybean market is due to factors such as the restraint and price - holding of the grain - selling end, disasters in the southern producing areas, and rigid debt - repayment needs. The continuous decoupling from US soybeans due to Sino - US economic and trade relations provides emotional support [3] - The current rise may be based on the current spot logic, and there is no significant expectation for the long - term supply - demand structure. The core issue is how to solve the problem of the shortage of imported soybeans at the beginning of next year [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for the soybean No. 1 11 - contract is 3900 - 4100 yuan, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.16% and a historical percentile of 24.7% [2] Risk Strategies Inventory Management for Sellers - For those with a long spot position, when there is a high demand for selling new soybeans after the autumn harvest and significant short - term selling pressure, they can short the A2601 soybean No. 1 futures contract at a ratio of 30% when the price is above 4100 yuan to lock in planting profits [2] - When soybeans are concentrated on the market and the seller's bargaining power weakens, they can sell the A2511 - C - 4050 call option at a ratio of 30% with a holding range of 30 - 50 to increase the grain - selling price [2] Procurement Management for Buyers - For those with a short spot position who are worried about rising raw material prices and increased procurement costs, they should mainly wait to purchase spot goods in the medium term and focus on long - term procurement management. They can go long on A2603 and A2605 contracts after the price bottoms out in the fourth quarter [2] Market Conditions - On the previous trading day, the soybean market accelerated its rise. The futures market broke through with increasing volume, and the spot prices rose to varying degrees. The 01 - contract on the futures market rose 1.56% to 4113 yuan, with an increase of 24,600 in positions and a trading volume of over 160,000 contracts, both hitting new highs since the contract was listed. The registered warehouse receipts remained at 7090 [3] Bullish and Bearish Factors Bullish Factors - The reduction in production and delayed listing in the southern producing areas have increased the demand for goods from the northeastern producing areas, changing the supply - demand structure seasonally [6] - The restraint in the grain - selling sentiment, debt - repayment needs, and increased rigid purchases in the sales areas due to colder weather support the market [6] Bearish Factors - The selling pressure is scattered, and the subsequent listing volume in the southern producing areas will increase [6] - On October 24 at 10:30, CGSG.com plans to auction 65,201 tons of domestic soybeans from 2022 and 2023 [6] - Currently, the supply of imported soybeans is sufficient, and the rising price suppresses the demand for domestic soybean crushing. The sales of medium - and low - protein soybeans are in trouble [7] Price and Basis Data Spot Price and Basis - On October 23, 2025, the spot prices of domestic third - grade soybeans in Harbin, Nenjiang, Jiamusi, and Changchun were 3890, 3840, 3920, and 3970 yuan respectively, with corresponding basis values of - 213, - 217, - 137, and - 87 yuan [7] Futures Closing Price - From October 22 to 23, 2025, the closing prices of soybean No. 1 11, 01, 03, 05, 07, and 09 contracts all rose, with daily increases of 55, 56, 52, 47, 51, and 55 yuan respectively, and corresponding increases of 1.36%, 1.38%, 1.28%, 1.15%, 1.25%, and 1.34% [7]

Report Information - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Corn & Starch Industry Daily Report - Date: October 24, 2025 - Analyst: Dai Hongxu (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0021819) - Research Assistant: Kang Quangui (Qualification Certificate No.: F03148699) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC Permit [2011] No. 1290 [1] Core Viewpoints - Northeast autumn grain harvest is over 80%, with varying selling progress in different provinces; North China and Huanghuai autumn grain harvest is nearly 80% [2] - After the spot price rebounded, farmers' selling sentiment was positive, market supply remained high, and the purchase price showed a weakening trend after rising [2] - The corn futures market rose yesterday, partly due to the sharp rise in soybeans; the spot market was weak, and the number of trucks arriving in Shandong increased significantly [2] - The starch market strengthened, with stable to rising prices in the Northeast and tight supply of small packages in North China [2] - On Thursday, CBOT corn futures continued to rise by nearly 1% [2] Market Data Corn & Starch Spot Prices and Main Contract Basis | Location | Corn Price | Change | Location | Corn Starch Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Jinzhou Port | 2180 | 0 | Shandong | 2760 | 0 | | Shekou Port | 2310 | 0 | Jilin | 2550 | 0 | | Harbin | 2000 | 0 | Heilongjiang | 2460 | 0 | | Jinzhou Port Main Contract Basis | 40 | -7 | Shandong Main Contract Basis | 310 | -24 | [2] Corn & Starch Futures Prices | Contract | 2025-10-22 | 2025-10-23 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Corn 11 | 2114 | 2117 | 3 | 0.14% | | Corn 01 | 2133 | 2140 | 7 | 0.33% | | Corn 03 | 2163 | 2167 | 4 | 0.18% | | Corn 05 | 2239 | 2244 | 5 | 0.22% | | Corn 07 | 2263 | 2264 | 1 | 0.04% | | Corn 09 | 2274 | 2274 | 0 | 0.00% | | Corn Starch 11 | 2410 | 2429 | 19 | 0.79% | | Corn Starch 01 | 2426 | 2450 | 24 | 0.99% | | Corn Starch 03 | 2442 | 2465 | 23 | 0.94% | | Corn Starch 05 | 2549 | 2558 | 9 | 0.35% | | Corn Starch 07 | 2563 | 2575 | 12 | 0.47% | | Corn Starch 09 | 2612 | 2618 | 6 | 0.23% | | Wheat Average Price | 2475 | 2483 | 8 | 0.32% | [3][6] US Corn Prices and Import Profits | Item | Price | Daily Change | Increase Rate | Import Profit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Corn Main Contract | 427.75 | 4 | 0.94% | - | | COBT Soybean Main Contract | 1061.25 | 11.5 | 1.1% | - | | CBOT Wheat Main Contract | 513 | 9.25 | 1.84% | - | | US Gulf Duty-paid Price | 2120.45 | 11.14 | 0.53% | 189.55 | | US West Duty-paid Price | 1967.33 | 11.05 | 0.56% | 342.67 | [30] Factors Affecting the Market Bullish Factors - The number of state reserve grain purchase points increased, with an obvious price-supporting purpose, supporting price stability [5] - Weather disturbances in North China changed market expectations, weakening the downward momentum of forward prices and making it difficult to suppress prices during purchases [5] Bearish Factors - Weather disturbances dissipated, market focus returned to supply pressure, supply remained high, and short-term price pressure increased [2] - The pig industry is in the process of capacity regulation, which may affect the long-term feed demand for corn [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Cost - end factors, such as geopolitical issues and supply - side changes in crude oil and coking coal, drive the overall recovery of the chemical industry. The short - term supply pressure of PP is relieved due to non - planned shutdowns of some devices, but the demand side has limited support. The short - term fundamental changes support the narrowing of the L - P spread [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polypropylene Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for polypropylene is 6500 - 7000. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 10.63%, and its historical percentile in the past 3 years is 19.1% [2] Polypropylene Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short PP2601 futures (25%, entry range 6900 - 7000) to lock in profits and sell PP2601C6900 call options (50%, entry range 20 - 40) to collect premiums and reduce costs [2] - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy PP2601 futures (50%, entry range 6500 - 6550) to lock in procurement costs in advance and sell PP2601P6500 put options (75%, entry range 30 - 50) to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [2] Core Contradictions - **Cost - end**: Geopolitical issues and sanctions lead to a sharp rise in oil prices. Coking coal shows a strong upward trend due to supply - side news. These factors drive the recovery of the chemical industry [3] - **Supply - demand end**: Supply pressure of PP is relieved in the short term due to non - planned shutdowns of some devices, resulting in an 80,000 - ton/month supply reduction. However, the demand side has limited support, showing a "weak peak season" situation. The improvement of the PP supply - demand pattern is slightly better than that of PE, supporting the narrowing of the L - P spread [3] Bullish Interpretations - Inner Mongolia Baofeng shuts down a 500,000 - ton PP production line for 10 days due to upstream compressor maintenance, and Daxie Petrochemical shuts down two 900,000 - ton production lines in Phase II for half a month due to upstream technological transformation [4] Bearish Interpretations - Propane CP prices dropped during the National Day, and PDH profits expanded, causing PP to lose cost support. The peak - season demand recovers slowly, and the export is seasonally weak with the export window closed. Guangxi Petrochemical's 400,000 - ton device will start operation soon [6] Polypropylene Daily Report Table - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: The main polypropylene basis, PP01, PP05, and PP09 contracts, and some spreads have changed compared to the previous day and the previous week. For example, the PP01 contract increased by 72 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [7] - **Spot Prices and Regional Spreads**: Spot prices in North China, East China, and South China, as well as regional spreads, have changed. For example, the East China - North China spread increased by 45 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [7] - **Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads**: Spreads between non - standard and standard products, such as the spread between homopolymer injection molding and drawing, have decreased [7] - **Upstream Prices and Processing Profits**: Upstream product prices, such as Brent crude oil and US propane, and processing profits of different PP production methods have changed. For example, oil - based PP profit increased by 775.99 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [7]

南华镍&不锈钢产业风险管理日报 2025/10/23 南华新能源&贵金属研究团队 夏莹莹 投资咨询证号：Z0016569 管城瀚 从业资格证号：F0313867 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 沪镍区间预测 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | | 11.8-12.6 | 15.17% | 3.2% | source： 南华研究,wind 不锈钢区间预测 沪镍不锈钢目前持续跟随大盘震荡，日内整体金属偏强运行，沪镍跟涨有限，后续或有一定补涨；基本面近 期无明显变动，宏观层面年内仍有降息预期，中美关税进展反复调整风险偏好。镍矿方面印尼公布26年配额 申报法规，新规细则趋于严格，规定矿产生产企业共可提交两次申请，若未通过申请则没有任何生产配额。 新能源方面后续步入旺季，下游采购需求持续处于高位，目前报价连续数周上涨；当前市场流通偏紧，库存 较低且仍有询单，后续或延续强势。镍铁近期价格上涨动力匮乏，整体重心明显下滑。不锈钢方面日内有一 定上行，技术面行有一定反弹趋势，现货成交主要以借势出货为主，贸易商灵活调价出货，成交价 ...

Report Information - Report Name: Polyethylene Risk Management Daily Report - Date: October 23, 2025 - Analyst: Dai Yifan (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0015428) - Assistant Analyst: Gu Hengye (Futures Practitioner License No.: F03143348) - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The dual increase in the prices of crude oil and coking coal has driven the overall recovery of the chemical industry. Geopolitical issues have led to a rebound in oil prices, and coking coal prices have risen due to supply - side factors. The PE market currently shows a situation of both supply and demand increasing, but the overall fundamental driving force is relatively limited [3] Summary by Directory Polyethylene Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for polyethylene is 6800 - 7200 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 8.23% and a historical percentile (3 - year) of 4.9% [2] Polyethylene Hedging Strategy Inventory Management - When the inventory of finished products is high and there are concerns about falling plastic prices, to prevent inventory depreciation losses, enterprises can short plastic futures (L2601) to lock in profits and offset production costs, with a hedging ratio of 25% and a recommended entry range of 7150 - 7200 yuan/ton. They can also sell call options (L2601C7200) to collect premiums and reduce costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and a recommended entry range of 30 - 60 [2] Procurement Management - When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is to be based on order situations, to prevent the increase in procurement costs due to rising polyethylene prices, enterprises can buy plastic futures (L2601) at present to lock in procurement costs in advance, with a hedging ratio of 50% and a recommended entry range of 6800 - 6850 yuan/ton. They can also sell put options (L2601P6800) to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs, and if the polyethylene price falls, they can lock in the spot purchase price, with a hedging ratio of 75% and a recommended entry range of 30 - 50 [2] Core Contradictions Cost Side - Geopolitical issues, such as the tense relationship between the US and Venezuela and the upgraded sanctions on Russian oil companies, have led to a significant increase in oil prices. Coking coal prices have also risen strongly due to supply - side factors such as production cuts in some regions and reduced customs clearance of Mongolian coal [3] Supply - Demand Side - On the supply side, Baofeng's PE full - density unit 2 (550,000 tons) has stopped due to upstream compressor maintenance, while Zhenhai's HDPE unit (300,000 tons) is expected to start two weeks earlier. Additionally, ExxonMobil's 500,000 - ton LDPE unit and two units of Guangxi Petrochemical are planned to start between October and November, increasing the supply pressure. On the demand side, the downstream agricultural film industry is in the peak season, with an increasing trend in both the operating rate and orders. The rebound in the futures market has also stimulated downstream speculative restocking, resulting in a relatively good overall trading volume [3] Bullish Factors - The downstream demand is still in the peak season, with an increasing trend in the operating rate and orders of the agricultural film industry. Baofeng's upstream unit maintenance has led to the shutdown of the full - density unit 2 (550,000 tons), which is expected to last for 10 days [4] Bearish Factors - ExxonMobil's 500,000 - ton LDPE new unit is expected to be put into production soon. Zhenhai Refining's 3 - line HDPE unit is expected to start two weeks earlier. The current LLDPE inventory is at a high level, and the inventory reduction speed during the peak season is slower than expected. PE imports are expected to increase from October to November [5][7] Polyethylene Daily Report Table - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: The plastic main basis decreased by 38 yuan/ton compared to the previous day and 70 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The prices of L01, L05, and L09 contracts all increased. The L1 - 5, L5 - 9, and L9 - 1 spreads also changed compared to the previous day and week. The L - P spread decreased by 9 yuan/ton compared to the previous day and 3 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [7] - **Spot Prices and Regional Spreads**: Spot prices in North China, East China, and South China all increased. The East - North China and East - South China spreads also changed compared to the previous day and week [7] - **Non - standard and Standard Product Spreads**: The spreads between various HDPE products and LLDPE films, as well as the spread between LDPE film and LLDPE film, all decreased compared to the previous day and week [7] - **Upstream Prices and Processing Profits**: The Brent crude oil price remained unchanged compared to the previous day and increased by 1.44 US dollars/barrel compared to the previous week. The US ethane price remained unchanged compared to the previous day and increased by 0.0027 US dollars/gallon compared to the previous week. The Northwest coal price increased by 5 yuan/ton compared to the previous day and remained unchanged compared to the previous week. The East China methanol price decreased by 1 yuan/ton compared to the previous day and 72 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The processing profits of various raw materials for PE also changed compared to the previous day and week [7]