南华期货碳酸锂企业风险管理日报 2025年10月22日 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 研究助理：余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 期货价格区间预测 | 品种 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 碳酸锂LC2601合约 | 强支撑位：72000 | 17.9% | 13.6% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 锂电企业风险管理策略建议 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | | 操作思路 | 套保工具 | 操作建议 | 套保比例 | 建议入场 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | 区间 | | 采购管理 | 产成品价格无 相关性 | 未来有生产电池材料的计划， 担心未来采购碳酸锂时价格上 | 为防止成本上涨，企业根据生 产计划需买入对应生产计划的 | 期货 场内/场外期权 | 买入对应期货合约 卖出看跌期权 ...

Report Title - The report is titled "Stock Index Futures Daily Report" dated October 22, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core View - The stock market showed a volatile trend today, which was in line with expectations. The trading volume of the two markets continued to shrink significantly, and the market remained in a wait - and - see mode. With the approaching release of the content of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, if there is significant incremental information, the capital inflow is expected to be rapid and large in volume. Attention should be paid to changes in information. In the Sino - US trade aspect, the situation is still fluctuating, and the stock index has become less sensitive to it as the market turns to a wait - and - see mode and trading volume contracts. A short - term strategy of buying straddle options is recommended in case of policy - related incremental information [4] Market Review - The stock index was volatile and slightly weaker today. The CSI 300 index closed down 0.33%. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 2060.38 billion yuan, and all stock index futures varieties declined with shrinking volume [2] Important Information - On October 22, Huawei released the Hongmeng Galaxy Interconnection Architecture during the Hongmeng OS 6 Special Release, with a transmission rate of 160MB/s, enhancing cross - device sharing, multi - screen collaboration, and application continuation experiences [3] - Japanese Prime Minister Hayasuna Sanae is preparing economic stimulus measures expected to exceed last year's 13.9 trillion yen [3] - Goldman Sachs released a research report stating that the Chinese stock market will enter a more sustained upward phase, with a projected increase of about 30% in key indices by the end of 2027, driven by a 12% profit trend growth and a 5% - 10% further revaluation potential [3] Futures Market Observation | Variety | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract intraday change (%) | -0.46 | -0.06 | -0.80 | -0.50 | | Trading volume (10,000 lots) | 9.6934 | 4.7089 | 10.9239 | 18.2361 | | Trading volume change (10,000 lots) | -2.5532 | -0.6344 | -3.6408 | -5.0712 | | Open interest (10,000 lots) | 24.9313 | 8.8473 | 23.6439 | 34.1636 | | Open interest change (10,000 lots) | -0.9453 | -0.2835 | -1.2637 | -1.3666 | [4] Spot Market Observation | Name | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index change (%) | -0.07 | | Shenzhen Component Index change (%) | -0.62 | | Ratio of rising to falling stocks | 0.73 | | Total trading volume of the two markets (billion yuan) | 16678.56 | | Trading volume change (billion yuan) | -2060.38 | [6]

聚酯产业风险管理日报 ——供应端传闻扰动，EG低位反弹 2025/10/22 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 研究助理：周嘉伟（期货从业证号：F03133676） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 聚酯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 乙二醇 | 3800-4300 | 11.64% | 10.6% | | PX | 6000-6800 | 13.82% | 34.1% | | PTA | 4250-4750 | 13.87% | 23.9% | | 瓶片 | 5300-5900 | 11.19% | 31.9% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 聚酯套保策略表 【利空解读】 1、华南一套80万吨/年的MEG新装置计划于11月上旬乙烯进料进行试开车，届时将有部分产量可兑现于市 场。华南新装置原计划26年一季度投产，如今投产时间提前，12月供应端预计将带来小幅额外增量。 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Currently, the maintenance of some facilities in Shandong provides slight support to the spot market, alleviating the spot pressure. However, the maintenance will gradually resume next week, and the performance of the spot market should be observed. Additionally, attention should be paid to the reduction amplitude of alumina production [3] 3. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast and Risk Management - The monthly price range forecast for caustic soda is 2300 - 2600 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 25.92% and a historical percentile of 67.1% over three years [2] - For inventory management, when the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, enterprises can short caustic soda futures (SH2601) at 2600 - 2650 yuan/ton with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in profits, and sell call options (SH601C2680) at 60 - 70 yuan/ton with a 50% ratio to collect premiums and reduce costs [2] - For procurement management, when the regular procurement inventory is low, enterprises can buy caustic soda futures (SH2601) at 2300 - 2350 yuan/ton with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in procurement costs, and sell put options (SH601P2320) at 70 - 80 yuan/ton with a 50% ratio to collect premiums and reduce costs [2] 3.2 Core Contradictions and Influencing Factors - Core contradictions: Near - term replenishment is below expectations, the spot market is weak, and there are medium - to - long - term production capacity expansion pressures and policy expectations [3] - Bullish factors: Some facilities in Shandong are under maintenance, leading to a decline in supply. The inventory of 32% caustic soda has decreased, providing slight support to the spot market [3] - Bearish factors: The alumina market is under pressure, local supply adjustments have begun, and the operating rate shows signs of a slight decline, which may affect the demand expectation for caustic soda [3] 3.3 Price and Spread Data - On October 22, 2025, the price of the caustic soda 05 contract was 2475 yuan/ton, up 0.08% from the previous day; the 09 contract was 2558 yuan/ton, down 0.12%; the 01 contract was 2380 yuan/ton, up 0.21% [3] - The 32% caustic soda ex - factory prices in various regions on October 22, 2025, remained mostly unchanged, except for a 1.5% decrease in the price of Beiyuan in Shaanxi [4][6] - The 50% caustic soda ex - factory prices in various regions on October 22, 2025, remained unchanged [6] - The flake caustic soda market prices in most regions on October 22, 2025, decreased, with declines ranging from 0.2% to 1.5% [7] - Some caustic soda brand/regional spreads on October 22, 2025, remained unchanged, while the northwest 99% - 50% caustic soda spread decreased by 51 yuan/ton, and the 50% caustic soda (Guangdong - Shandong) spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton [7] 3.4 Seasonal Data - The report presents the seasonal charts of caustic soda month - spreads (11 - 12), (12 - 01), (11 - 01), (01 - 03), (01 - 05), (05 - 09) and the seasonal charts of caustic soda 09 and 01 contract basis in Shandong [8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The nickel and stainless steel markets are currently fluctuating with the broader market, with no significant changes in the fundamentals recently. There is still an expectation of interest rate cuts within the year at the macro - level, and the progress of Sino - US tariffs repeatedly adjusts risk preferences [3]. - In the nickel ore sector, Indonesia has announced regulations for 2026 quota applications. The overall quota in 2025 is in surplus, and the quota in 2026 is expected to decline under regulatory restrictions such as environmental reviews. The new energy sector is entering the peak season, with high downstream procurement demand and rising prices. The nickel - iron price has limited upward momentum, and its center of gravity has declined. Stainless steel prices rose slightly during the day, with active spot transactions, but its upward momentum is insufficient, and it may fluctuate widely, waiting for clear signals [3]. - The WTO's ruling that the EU's additional tax on Indonesian stainless steel is non - compliant and the exemption of India's BIS certification until the end of the year are positive for stainless steel exports [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price and Volatility Forecast - **Nickel**: The price range forecast for Shanghai nickel is 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 15.17% and a historical percentile of 3.2% [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price range forecast for stainless steel is 12,500 - 13,100 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 8.23% and a historical percentile of 3.3% [2]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategies - **Nickel Risk Management Strategies** - **Inventory Management**: When product sales prices fall and inventory has impairment risk, sell Shanghai nickel futures (NI main contract) according to inventory levels to lock in profits and hedge against spot price declines, with a hedging ratio of 60%. Also, sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a hedging ratio of 50% [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, buy Shanghai nickel forward contracts (far - month NI contracts) according to the production plan to lock in production costs. Also, sell put options and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) according to the procurement plan [2]. - **Stainless Steel Risk Management Strategies** - **Inventory Management**: When product sales prices fall and inventory has impairment risk, sell stainless steel futures (SS main contract) according to inventory levels to lock in profits and hedge against spot price declines, with a hedging ratio of 60%. Also, sell call options (over - the - counter/on - exchange options) with a hedging ratio of 50% [3]. - **Procurement Management**: When the company has future production procurement needs and is worried about rising raw material prices, buy stainless steel forward contracts (far - month SS contracts) according to the production plan to lock in production costs. Also, sell put options and buy out - of - the - money call options (on - exchange/over - the - counter options) according to the procurement plan [3]. 3.3 Market Data - **Nickel Market Data** - **Futures Prices**: The latest price of Shanghai nickel main contract is 121,380 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 200 yuan and a change rate of 0%. The prices of other contracts also showed different degrees of change [6]. - **Inventory Data**: The domestic social inventory of nickel is 47,708 tons, with no change from the previous period; LME nickel inventory is 250,878 tons, an increase of 402 tons; nickel - pig iron inventory is 29,062 tons, a decrease of 174 tons [7]. - **Stainless Steel Market Data** - **Futures Prices**: The latest price of the stainless steel main contract is 12,710 yuan/ton, with a daily change of 45 yuan and a change rate of 0%. The prices of other contracts also showed different degrees of change [6]. - **Inventory Data**: The stainless steel social inventory is 952.6 tons, an increase of 47 tons [7]. 3.4 Market Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors** - Indonesia shortens the nickel ore quota license period from three years to one year. - The Indonesian forestry working group takes over part of the nickel mining area of PT Weda Bay. - CATL and Antam promote the construction of a nickel integrated smelter. - The WTO rules that the EU's additional tax on Indonesian stainless steel is non - compliant. - India's BIS certification exemption is extended to the end of the year [6]. - **Negative Factors** - The inventory of pure nickel is high. - The center of gravity of nickel - iron has moved down, and the bottom support has loosened. - Stainless steel has re - entered the inventory accumulation cycle. - The stainless steel market shows a situation of "not prosperous in the peak season", and the demand recovery is less than expected [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The current peak season for asphalt has not shown better - than - expected performance. Short - term external disturbances have increased. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term or look for pressure levels after the price rises to arrange short positions. The supply of asphalt remains stable, the demand is weak due to weather and other factors, the cost of crude oil is expected to decline, and the South China region is still the price depression [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Volatility - The predicted monthly price range of the asphalt main contract is 3000 - 3450, the current 20 - day rolling volatility is 14.25%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 15.91% [2]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategy - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, to prevent inventory losses, they can short - sell asphalt futures (bu2512) with a hedging ratio of 25% at an entry range of 3650 - 3750. They can also sell call options (bu2512C3500) with a ratio of 20% at an entry range of 30 - 40 to reduce capital costs [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular inventory, to prevent rising procurement costs, they can buy asphalt futures (bu2512) with a hedging ratio of 50% at an entry range of 3300 - 3400. They can also sell put options (bu2512C3500) with a ratio of 20% at an entry range of 25 - 35 to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs [2]. 3.3 Core Contradiction - The news of a possible US military strike on Venezuela has led to a rise in crude oil and asphalt prices. Since Venezuelan crude oil accounts for over 20% of China's asphalt refinery feedstock, the market is worried about raw material supply disruptions. However, the accuracy of the news needs to be verified by tracking Venezuelan crude oil shipments and China's imports [3]. - The refinery's production is stable, and the overall asphalt supply has little change. The demand is weak after the National Day holiday, mainly consuming social inventory. The inventory structure has improved, with stable and low - pressure factory inventories and a declining social inventory. The problem of raw material shortage has not been fundamentally resolved, so the asphalt cracking spread remains high. The cost of crude oil is expected to decline as OPEC continues to increase production. The price of crude oil has dropped rapidly due to the escalation of Sino - US tariffs. The South China region remains the price depression due to crude oil quotas and consumption tax restrictions [3]. 3.4利多解读 - The pressure on asphalt factory inventories is low, providing a basis for manufacturers to support prices [6]. - In Shandong, Shengxing has resumed asphalt production, while Qicheng and Fengli have switched to producing residual oil. In the East China region, some major refineries have reduced production [6]. - There is an atmosphere of anti - cut - throat competition, and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a document to resist disorderly price wars [6]. - There is a possibility of an escalation of the conflict between the US and Venezuela [6]. 3.5利空解读 - The escalation of US tariffs on China has weakened the overall sentiment in the risk market [7]. - The recent increase in the arrival of Venezuelan crude oil and the continued production increase by OPEC+ in November are negative factors for asphalt prices [12]. 3.6 Price and Basis Data - **Spot Price**: On October 22, 2025, the spot prices in Shandong, the Yangtze River Delta, North China, and South China were 3330 yuan/ton, 3470 yuan/ton, 3330 yuan/ton, and 3400 yuan/ton respectively. Compared with the previous day, the prices in Shandong and North China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while those in the Yangtze River Delta and South China remained unchanged [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of Shandong, the Yangtze River Delta, North China, and South China for the 12 - contract decreased by 56 yuan/ton, 46 yuan/ton, 56 yuan/ton, and 46 yuan/ton respectively compared with the previous day [7]. - **Cracking Spread**: The cracking spread of Shandong spot to Brent decreased by 1.7329 yuan/barrel compared with the previous day, while the cracking spread of the futures main contract to Brent increased by 15.9425 yuan/barrel [7].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - If there is no real production cut, the end - point of the 01 - contract for glass and soda ash is downward due to the existing structural contradictions. In reality, near - term glass data is poor with high intermediate inventory, and soda ash has a pattern of high production and high inventory with obvious oversupply. However, there is an expectation of cost increase for both glass and soda ash in the long run [2] - Without substantial cold - repair or production cut of glass, continue to focus on the 1 - 5 reverse spread; it is recommended to exit and wait for the single - side short positions [5] Group 3: Price Forecasts - The monthly price range forecast for glass is 1000 - 1300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 33.65% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 85.5%. For soda ash, the monthly price range forecast is 1100 - 1400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 21.66% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 22.9% [1] Group 4: Hedging Strategies Glass - **Inventory Management**: When glass inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, sell FG2601 futures at 1250 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell FG601C1300 call options at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio to lock in profits and reduce costs [1] - **Procurement Management**: When glass inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, buy FG2601 futures at 1050 - 1100 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell FG601P1060 put options at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio to lock in procurement costs [1] Soda Ash - **Inventory Management**: When soda ash inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, sell SA2601 futures at 1550 - 1600 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell SA601C1400 call options at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio to lock in profits and reduce costs [1] - **Procurement Management**: When soda ash inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, buy SA2601 futures at 1200 - 1250 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell SA601P1200 put options at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio to lock in procurement costs [1] Group 5: Market Data Glass - On 2025/10/22, the glass 05 contract was 1241 (up 5 or 0.4% from the previous day), the 09 contract was 1330 (up 8 or 0.61%), and the 01 contract was 1094 (up 7 or 0.64%). The 5 - 9 spread was - 89 (down 3), the 9 - 1 spread was 236 (up 1), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 147 (up 2). The 01 - contract basis in Shahe was 33 (down 9), and in Hubei was - 14 (down 7). The 05 - contract basis in Shahe was - 114 (down 7), and in Hubei was - 161 (down 5) [6] - The average spot price of glass in Shahe on 2025/10/22 was 1127 (down 2 from the previous day). Regional prices in North China were 1140 (down 20), in Northeast China were 1120 (down 30), and in Jiangsu were 1280 (down 20) [7] Soda Ash - On 2025/10/22, the soda ash 05 contract was 1308 (up 10 or 0.77% from the previous day), the 09 contract was 1370 (up 9 or 0.66%), and the 01 contract was 1223 (up 13 or 1.07%). The 5 - 9 spread was - 62 (up 1, - 1.59% change), the 9 - 1 spread was 147 (down 4, - 2.65% change), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 85 (up 3, - 3.41% change). The Shahe heavy - base basis was - 73 (down 13), and the Qinghai heavy - base basis was - 273 (down 13) [7] - The heavy - alkali market price in Shahe on 2025/10/22 was 1173 (up 23 from the previous day). The price differences between heavy and light alkali in different regions were stable [8][9] Group 6: Influencing Factors Bullish Factors - There is an expectation of cost increase for glass and soda ash (fuel & raw materials), which affects the pricing of far - month contracts [4] - The expectation of industrial policies cannot be completely excluded and may be repeatedly traded [4] Bearish Factors - High inventories in the upstream and mid - stream of glass and soda ash, and doubts about downstream acceptance, resulting in a lackluster peak season [4] - There are supply pressures. Glass production lines have ignition expectations, and soda ash has future production - capacity expansion pressure [4] - The glass spot market is weak, with price cuts and poor production - sales ratios [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core contradictions affecting the current trend of propylene include sufficient supply but insufficient demand in the main downstream PP, small price differences between PP powder, granules, and propylene, and weak overall downstream, lacking upward drivers. Additionally, the PDH cost has collapsed, with the CP October contract price dropping unexpectedly [3]. - There are some positive factors, such as a slight reduction in supply in the Shandong market due to the shutdown of Yulong cracking, the maintenance of Lihuayi PDH, and the shutdown of Jingbo K - cot. There are also some buyers after the decline in spot prices, and the increase in recent maintenance at the PP end has temporarily relieved the supply - side pressure [3]. - Negative factors include the possibility of repeated submissions of the "anti - involution" affecting expectations, and the spot price being easily affected by individual device fluctuations. In the past two weeks, the supply - demand gap has slightly decreased due to the maintenance of some devices. Also, after the decline in propane, the PDH profit has expanded, but propylene and PP cannot bear the high profit, and the PP downstream remains weak [4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Propylene Price Forecast and Hedging Strategy - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range forecast for propylene is 5800 - 6200 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 0.1067, and the historical percentage of the current volatility in the past 3 years is 0.6333 [2]. - **Hedging Strategy** - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about price drops, they can short - allocate propylene futures at high prices (50% hedging ratio, recommended entry range 6300 - 6400 yuan/ton for PL2601) to lock in profits. They can also sell call options (25% hedging ratio, recommended entry range 140 - 150 for PL2601C6200) to collect premiums and reduce costs [2]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory and aiming to purchase according to orders, they can buy propylene futures at low prices (25% hedging ratio, recommended entry price 5800 yuan/ton for PL2601) to lock in procurement costs. They can also sell put options (25% hedging ratio, recommended entry range 50 - 70 for PL2601P5800) to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs [2]. 3.2 Industrial Data Summary - **Upstream Raw Material Prices**: On October 21, 2025, Brent was at $61.36/barrel (+$0.56 day - on - day, -$0.92 week - on - week), WTI was at $57.58/barrel (+$0.65 day - on - day, -$0.6 week - on - week), and other upstream prices also showed various changes [7]. - **Mid - stream Prices**: The price of propylene in the East China region on October 21, 2025, was 6075 yuan/ton (unchanged day - on - day, - 140 yuan/ton week - on - week), and prices in other regions also had corresponding fluctuations [7]. - **Downstream Prices**: The price of polypropylene granules on October 21, 2025, was 6550 yuan/ton (unchanged day - on - day, - 50 yuan/ton week - on - week), and prices of other downstream products also changed [7]. - **Profits**: Profits in the mid - upstream, such as the profit of propylene PDH - FEI, were 307.34 yuan/ton (-65.37 yuan/ton day - on - day, -95.26 yuan/ton week - on - week), and profits in different sectors showed different trends [7]. - **Price Spreads**: The spread between PP granules and propylene on October 21, 2025, was 440 yuan/ton (-30 yuan/ton day - on - day, +170 yuan/ton week - on - week), and other price spreads also had corresponding changes [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current core contradictions affecting the LPG price trend include supply - demand imbalances, geopolitical issues, and cost - end fluctuations. Cost - end crude oil is under pressure from supply surplus and geopolitical disturbances, leading to increased volatility. The CP contract price in October dropped unexpectedly, and the external market remains weak. There are concerns about supply due to issues related to the US and Iran. The domestic fundamentals have little change, with increased civil gas supply suppressing spot prices, stable chemical demand, and weak combustion demand [2]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the LPG market. The expansion of PDH profits supports demand to some extent, and the widening of the FN spread may attract some cracking demand. However, there are also negative factors affecting the market [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LPG Price Forecast and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for LPG is 3800 - 4400. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 21.91%, and the historical percentage of the current volatility over 3 years is 34.05% [1]. LPG Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - For companies with high inventory worried about price drops, they can short PG2511 futures with a 25% hedging ratio in the 4400 - 4500 range to lock in profits. They can also sell PG2511C4400 call options with a 25% ratio in the 60 - 70 range to collect premiums and reduce costs [1]. Procurement Management - For companies with low regular inventory and aiming to purchase based on orders, they can buy PG2511 futures with a 25% hedging ratio in the 3800 - 4000 range to lock in procurement costs. They can also sell PG2511P3800 put options with a 25% ratio in the 50 - 70 range to collect premiums and reduce procurement costs [1]. Industry Data - Various price data for LPG and related products are provided, including Brent, WTI, MOPJ, FEI, CP, etc., along with their daily and weekly changes. For example, on October 21, 2025, Brent was at 61.36, with a daily increase of 0.56 and a weekly decrease of 0.92 [3]. - Different spread data such as FEI - MOPJ M1, LPG - FEI, etc., are presented, showing their daily and weekly changes. For instance, the LPG - FEI spread was 180.88 on October 21, 2025, with a daily decrease of 2.63 and a weekly increase of 47.14 [6]. - Month - spread data for LPG and related products are given, like LPG11 - 12 and LPG12 - 1. The LPG11 - 12 month - spread was 146 on October 21, 2025, with a daily increase of 4 and a weekly decrease of 11 [6]. - Ratio data such as MB/WTI and FEI/Brent are provided, along with their daily and weekly changes. The MB/WTI ratio was 0.46 on October 21, 2025, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 0.01 [6]. - Both盘面 and spot profit data are presented, including PDH盘面 profits based on different benchmarks (PG, FEI, CP) and Asian naphtha and propane cracking profits. For example, the PDH盘面 profit - FEI was 366.36 on October 21, 2025, with a daily increase of 20.73 and a weekly increase of 88.12 [6]. - Freight data for different routes (Middle East to Far East, US to Europe, etc.) are provided, showing their daily and weekly changes. The Middle East to Far East freight was 59.333 on October 21, 2025, with a daily decrease of 0.5 and a weekly decrease of 3.167 [6]. Seasonal Data - Seasonal data for various factors are presented, including price, spread, month - spread, ratio, profit, and freight. For example, there are seasonal charts for FEI, CP, MB prices, LPG futures prices, and different spreads like FEI - MOPJ M1, PG - FEI, etc. [7][9][10]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Nanhua Soybean No. 1 Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: October 22, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Bian Shuyang (Investment Consulting License No.: Z0012647) [1] - Research Assistant: Kang Quangui (Qualification Certificate No.: F03148699) [1] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: CSRC License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Group 2: Price Prediction and Risk Strategy Price Prediction - The predicted price range for the Soybean No. 1 11 - contract in the month is 3900 - 4100 yuan. The current volatility (20 - day rolling) is 10.06%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 22.8% [2] Risk Strategy - **Inventory Management - 1**: For planting subjects with a large demand for selling new soybeans after autumn harvest but facing large short - term selling pressure (long spot exposure), the strategy is to short - sell Soybean No. 1 futures (contract A2601) to lock in planting profits when the futures price rebounds. The hedging ratio is 30%, and the recommended entry range is above 4100 yuan [2] - **Inventory Management - 2**: When soybeans are concentratedly listed and the seller's bargaining power weakens (long spot exposure), the strategy is to sell call options (A2511 - C - 4050) to increase the grain - selling price. The hedging ratio is 30%, and the recommended holding range is 30 - 50 [2] - **Procurement Management**: For those worried about rising raw material prices and aiming to control procurement costs (short spot exposure), the main strategy is to wait for spot procurement in the medium - term and focus on long - term procurement management. Long contracts A2603 and A2605, and wait for the price to bottom out in the fourth quarter [2] Group 3: Core Contradiction and Market Analysis Core Contradiction - The harvest of domestic soybeans is in the final stage. The reduction in production in southern regions has stimulated the acquisition enthusiasm of some subjects, especially for grain sources in the Northeast. Coupled with the relatively restrained selling sentiment of grass - roots subjects this year, the difficulty for enterprises to acquire soybeans has increased in the short term, leading to more price - increasing acquisitions and rising market bullish sentiment [3] - On the futures side, since the opening in October, the Soybean No. 1 futures have rebounded against the spot pressure, contrary to the usual downward - prone trend in October. The main 01 contract has rebounded from around 3900 yuan to nearly 4100 yuan. The basis in the production area has weakened significantly. However, as the futures price enters the August platform range and the hedging space increases, the short - term correction pressure on the futures price has increased [3] - At the policy level, as the price rebounds, the situation of grass - roots grain selling has improved, reducing the urgency of policy - supported storage. The selling sentiment of grass - roots subjects is scattered, and the short - term selling pressure mainly relies on market forces to resolve. The price of domestic soybeans has entered a bottom - grinding stage. The acquisition intensity of oil mills should be monitored as it will have a significant impact on the grain purchase and sales progress [3] 利多解读 (Positive Factors) - The acquisition demand driven by the return - grain operation in the two - way auction provides short - term support to the market [3] - Soybeans have become one of the focuses of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations. With China's continuous zero - import of US soybeans, it has provided emotional support to domestic soybeans [5] - The disasters in southern production areas have increased enterprises' enthusiasm for acquiring soybeans from the Northeast, providing short - term support for price rebounds [5] 利空解读 (Negative Factors) - During the new - grain listing period, the spot pressure needs to be digested [5] - The low transaction rate of the state - reserve soybean auction (4345 tons out of 40422 tons at a reserve price of 3900 yuan) indicates that the enthusiasm for spot grain grabbing is relatively rational [5] Group 4: Price and Basis Data Spot Price and Basis - On October 21, 2025, the basis data for different regions are as follows: in Harbin (Grade 3 domestic soybeans), the price is 3890 yuan with a basis of - 171; in Nenjiang, 3840 yuan with a basis of - 246; in Jiamusi, 3920 yuan with a basis of - 166; in Changchun, 3970 yuan with a basis of - 116 [6] Futures Price - On October 21, 2025, compared with the previous day, the closing prices of different Soybean No. 1 contracts decreased. For example, the 11 - contract decreased by 27 yuan to 4038 yuan (- 0.66%); the 01 - contract decreased by 25 yuan to 4061 yuan (- 0.61%); the 03 - contract decreased by 18 yuan to 4064 yuan (- 0.44%); the 05 - contract decreased by 12 yuan to 4100 yuan (- 0.29%); the 07 - contract decreased by 14 yuan to 4098 yuan (- 0.34%); the 09 - contract decreased by 17 yuan to 4100 yuan (- 0.41%) [6]