1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, the natural rubber market is expected to continue its wide - range oscillation. RU has low valuation and cost - side support but weak buying, while dark - colored rubbers like 20 - gauge rubber rely on downstream demand. In the medium - to - long - term, it is regarded as neutrally bearish due to supply pressure and uncertain demand [1][2] - The market has shifted from macro - driven to fundamentals - driven pricing. The current fundamentals show mixed signals, with some positive factors in the upstream and downstream but also significant supply and demand pressures [1] - Trade policies and international situations pose risks to the long - term demand for rubber, and downstream tire enterprises may restructure the supply - demand distribution of rubber [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Short - term: After the initial rise, rubber prices retraced due to the fading of macro - positive sentiment. The fundamentals show that although RU has cost - side support, the buying is weak, and 20 - gauge rubber depends on downstream demand. The supply of natural rubber is expected to increase, and the supply of synthetic rubber is loose, dragging down the price of the rubber system [1] - Medium - to - long - term: The global total production capacity cycle has not fully peaked, and the supply pressure is increasing. The demand needs continuous macro - positive support, and the export growth faces risks such as international situations and trade barriers [1][2] - Proximal trading: The price difference between Indonesian standard rubber and other standard rubbers has widened slightly, providing some support to NR. The risk of near - month delivery is small, but there is still an anti - arbitrage space for some standard rubbers [7] - Distal trading: The weather in production areas has improved, and the supply is expected to increase. The inventory in Qingdao has started to accumulate, increasing the supply pressure. The macro situation still has uncertainties, and the long - term demand may lead to a restructuring of the rubber supply - demand distribution [10] 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Price Range**: The short - term reference oscillation range for RU2601 is 14800 - 15400; for NR2511, it is 12000 - 12400 [15] - **Trend Judgement**: It is expected to maintain an oscillation, with the fundamentals as the main pricing factor. The support for RU01 is around 14600, and the pressure is around 15600; for NR12, the support is around 11800 [15] - **Strategy Recommendations**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for unilateral trading, consider small - scale long - position trading when RU01 stabilizes. For hedging, combine with protective options or consider a long - volatility strategy. For basis trading, consider reverse arbitrage for some varieties. For calendar spread arbitrage, hold long - spread positions for RU and consider long - spread positions for NR11 - 01. For variety arbitrage, consider widening the spread at low levels [16] 3.1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Forecast**: The price range for rubber RU in the next two weeks is 14800 - 15700, and for 20 - gauge rubber NR, it is 11900 - 12900 [22] - **Risk Management Strategies**: For inventory management, when the inventory is high, short - sell rubber futures, buy out - of - the - money put options, and sell call options. For procurement management, when the inventory is low, buy long - term rubber futures and out - of - the - money call options, and sell put options [22] 3.2 Important Information and Attention Events 3.2.1 Last Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The US API and EIA crude oil inventories decreased, the Sino - US economic and trade consultations achieved results, the global automotive supporting demand was good, the Fed cut interest rates, the "15th Five - Year Plan" policies were introduced, and the demand for winter snow tires increased [24][25][26] - **Negative Information**: The Fed's decision on future interest rate cuts is uncertain, the increase in rubber prices has brought supply - demand pressure, the manufacturing PMI in China declined, the tire and automobile inventories are under pressure, and the weather may have a certain impact on production [27] 3.2.2 This Week's Attention Focus - Monitor the rainfall in production areas, changes in dry - rubber social inventory, downstream tire start - up conditions, and important macro data such as the US ISM manufacturing PMI and China's PPI and CPI reports [28] 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend**: Last week, rubber prices first rebounded and then declined. RU and NR found support at around 15000 and 12000 respectively. The liquidity problem of 20 - gauge rubber has been alleviated, and the spot price is still stronger than the disk price. RU's position remained flat, while NR's position continued to decrease [29] - **Capital Trend**: Since last Thursday, the short positions of RU and NR have increased, and the net positions have decreased [32] 3.3.2 Spot Market and Spread Analysis - **Spot Price Changes**: Last Friday, most spot prices fell, except for the increase in the price of whole milk latex. Among standard rubbers, the price of Thai standard rubber decreased significantly [35] - **Basis Structure**: The spread between whole milk latex and smoked sheet rubber narrowed, the basis of whole milk latex remained flat, and the basis of smoked sheet rubber decreased. The basis of some standard rubbers rebounded, and the term structure of NR has changed from a deep back to a shallower one [37][42] - **Calendar Spread Structure**: The calendar spread structure of RU changed little, and the center of gravity moved up slightly. The price of NR decreased, and the back structure became shallower, reflecting weak market expectations [42] - **External Market Conditions**: The price of Thai smoked sheet rubber increased, driving the near - month contracts of Japanese RSS3 to strengthen, and the monthly spread structure became flatter. The price and structure of Singapore TSR20 rubber changed little [48] - **Virtual - to - Physical Ratio and Sentiment Index**: Recently, the sentiment in the rubber market has fluctuated greatly. The bullish sentiment rose and then fell last week, and the demand sentiment for downstream tires was weak. The virtual - to - physical ratio of RU continued to rise, while that of NR decreased [57] - **Variety Spread Analysis**: The spread between light - colored and dark - colored rubbers widened and then stabilized. The spread between natural and synthetic rubbers increased and then corrected, dragging down the price of natural rubber [60][64] 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Industry Chain Profit Tracking - **Raw Material Cost**: Last week, rainfall in Hainan, Yunnan, and southern Thailand affected the supply, and raw material prices were firm. The price difference between water and cup in Thailand rebounded [66] - **Processing Profit - Domestic Rubber**: The delivery profit of whole milk latex and the profit of TSR9710 both decreased significantly [73] - **Processing Profit - Imported Rubber**: The overall center of rubber prices moved up last week. The import profit of Thai smoked sheet rubber remained flat, while the profits of 20 - gauge standard rubber and Thai mixed rubber decreased [75] 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply Side - **Production in Major Producing Countries**: The supply of natural rubber in major producing countries is expected to increase, and the weather in some areas has improved, which is conducive to production [10] - **Import Situation**: In September, the import of natural and synthetic rubber in China increased steadily. The import of Thai standard rubber decreased, while the import of Thai mixed rubber increased significantly [79] 3.5.2 Demand Side - **Total Demand in Major Producing Countries**: In August, the actual consumption of natural rubber in China remained stable year - on - year, while the demand in major producing countries such as Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia declined [86] - **Tire Production and Sales**: The demand for winter snow tires has increased, and most tire enterprises' start - up rates have remained stable. The inventory of semi - steel tires has decreased, while that of all - steel tires has increased slightly. The export of domestic tires has shown strong resilience but has declined month - on - month [91] - **Replacement Demand**: The domestic logistics industry has been stable, but the slowdown in fixed - asset investment may suppress the growth of replacement demand in the long term [96] - **Supporting Demand**: Domestic automobile sales have performed well, and the supporting demand for tires is expected to remain resilient. However, the long - term increase in the demand for truck - related tires may be limited [98][99] - **Overseas Tire Production**: Japan's tire production has remained stable overall, with strong performance in all - steel tires and a year - on - year decrease in semi - steel tires. Thailand's tire shipment index has increased year - on - year [102] - **Overseas Tire Demand**: US tire imports have increased despite the decline in automobile sales. The production and sales of European passenger cars have been stable, and the production of commercial vehicles has decreased. The automobile production in Japan and South Korea has shown different trends [104] - **Demand for Other Rubber Products**: The start - up rate of domestic conveyor belts has weakened, while that of rubber tubes is slightly higher than that of last year [111] 3.5.3 Inventory Side - **Futures Inventory**: Affected by the weather, the RU warehouse receipts have continued to decline, while the NR warehouse receipts have increased due to stable imports and weak downstream procurement [116] - **Social Inventory**: As of November 2, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao has increased, with a decrease in bonded - area inventory and an increase in general - trade inventory [118]

国债期货日报 2025/11/3 徐晨曦（投资咨询证号：Z0001908） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290 观点：关注央行政策操作 盘面点评： 周一期债整体下跌，TS跌幅较为显著，其余品种震荡微跌。资金面宽松，DR001在1.31%附近。公开市场逆 回购783亿，净回笼2590亿。 重要资讯： 1.潘功胜：研究和储备应对宏观经济、金融市场波动等领域的政策工具；持续整治金融业"内卷式"竞争、资金 空转；不断增强央行政策利率的作用，收窄短期利率走廊的宽度。 2.证监会发布《公开募集证券投资基金业绩比较基准指引（征求意见稿）》，基金业协会同步发布《公开募集 证券投资基金业绩比较基准操作细则（征求意见稿）》。 行情研判： 今日股债继续独立运行，午后A股回升未对债市造成影响。目前债市对央行购债基本定价完毕，消息面较为清 淡导致短期缺乏交易热点。关注随后发布的经济数据是否带来一定的交易动力。操作上维持多头思路，中期 多单继续持有，短期不追高，等待回落做多。 国债期货日度数据 | | 2025-11-03 | 2025-10-31 | 今日涨跌 | | 2025-11-03 | 2025-10-31 | 今 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Today, pulp futures prices showed a wide - range oscillation, while offset paper futures prices opened with a significant increase and then maintained an oscillation. In the spot market, pulp prices in some paper mills increased slightly, and the supply - side pressure eased due to partial mill maintenance. The downstream paper - using开工率 (operating rates) showed mixed trends, and cultural paper consumption did not continue the positive year - on - year growth in August. Port inventories remained relatively high, restricting pulp prices. For offset paper, some companies raised their quotes, which was favorable for futures prices. Overall, pulp and offset paper may be relatively oscillatory or slightly bullish in the short term [4]. - For pulp, the strategy is to go long at low prices or wait and see in the futures market, and sell out - of - the - money put options on far - month contracts in the options market. For offset paper, it is recommended to wait and see in both the futures and options markets [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price Forecast and Risk Management - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range for pulp is predicted to be 4750 - 5350, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.19% and a 3 - year historical volatility percentile of 16.95%. For offset paper, the price range is 4150 - 4350, with a volatility of 7.96% and a historical percentile of 39.39% [3]. - **Risk Management Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For companies with high inventory worried about price drops, they can short pulp/offset paper futures (e.g., SP2601 at 5400 - 5500 and OP2601 at 4350 - 4400) to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell call options (e.g., SP2601C5300 and OP2601C4400) when volatility is appropriate to reduce costs and lock in selling prices [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For paper - making enterprises with low inventory, they can buy pulp/offset paper futures (e.g., SP2601 at 4950 - 5050 and OP2601 at 4100 - 4150) to lock in procurement costs. They can also sell put options (e.g., SP2512P4850 and OP2601P4050) when volatility is appropriate to reduce procurement costs and lock in buying prices [3]. 3.2 Core Contradiction - **Futures Price Movement**: Pulp futures prices oscillated widely, and offset paper futures prices opened higher and then oscillated [4]. - **Spot Price**: Pulp spot prices in some regions increased by 30 - 70 yuan/ton, and some offset paper companies raised their quotes by 100 - 200 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side pressure eased due to mill maintenance, downstream operating rates showed mixed trends, cultural paper consumption did not continue the growth in August, and port inventories were relatively high, restricting pulp prices. For offset paper, price increases by some companies were favorable for futures prices, and attention should be paid to inventory reduction [4]. 3.3利多解读 (Positive Factors) - Paper companies raised the quotes of various types of paper, the Fed has a rate - cut expectation, and overseas broad - leaf pulp production shifted, reduced, and prices rose [7][12] 3.4利空解读 (Negative Factors) - There is a possibility of a decrease in overseas shipping costs, port inventories are high and difficult to reduce, and downstream demand is weak during the peak season [12] 3.5 Basis and Price Difference - **Pulp Basis**: The daily and weekly changes in pulp basis for different varieties and contracts are provided, and the seasonal chart of pulp basis (Shandong Yinxing) is also presented [9][10]. - **Offset Paper Basis**: The daily and weekly changes in offset paper basis for different contracts are provided [9][10]. - **Futures Price and Spread**: The closing prices, daily and weekly changes, and price differences of pulp and offset paper futures contracts are given [15]. - **Spot Price and Regional Spread**: The spot prices and regional spreads of pulp and offset paper are provided [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, soybeans defied the pattern of being more likely to fall than rise, with the futures main contract 01 rising over 5% and spot prices increasing to varying degrees. Multiple factors contributed to this, and the market fundamentals have shifted, with new - season soybeans potentially ending the bottom - probing process and later showing a bottom - confirmation and oscillating upward trend [1]. - In the long run, domestic soybean prices may break out of the bottom - range oscillation, and the annual price center of gravity may shift upward significantly [6]. - The supply of medium - and high - protein soybeans will decline, and the rigid edible consumption is expected to continuously support the prices of relevant soybean sources, with the feature of high - quality at high - price persisting until the next supply season [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Multiple factors such as the sellers' price - holding, southern产区's reduced production, and rigid repayment demand led to the anti - seasonal rise of soybeans in October. The increased acquisition of Northeast soybeans due to southern产区's reduced production was the core driving force [1]. - In the short term, beware of the risk of selling pressure emerging due to price stagnation, especially near the end of the year. The resumption of US soybean imports will suppress the sentiment of soybean price increases, especially for medium - and low - protein soybeans [5]. - The new - season supply pressure is dispersed, and the import soybean gap and arrival volume at the end of the fourth quarter and early next year will have a key impact on the consumption of domestic medium - and low - protein soybeans [6]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: Bullish trend; **Technical View**: Pay attention to short - term pull - back confirmation and focus on the 20 - day moving average support; **Strategy View**: Overall, wait and see, wait for the pull - back confirmation, and pay attention to low - price inventory hedging at high prices in the short term [6]. - **Basis Strategy**: The weekly spot - futures market prices stagnated, and the basis of 39 - protein soybeans was neutral. It is recommended to wait and see. **Spread Strategy**: The difference between near - and far - month contracts changed insignificantly. Consider selling near - month and buying far - month contracts [6]. - **Recent Strategy Review**: Hold short - term hedging for contract 01 above 4100; Wait for the price to fall before making forward purchases [6]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast for Contract 01**: 3900 - 4100, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.36% and a historical percentile of 25.9% [6]. - **Risk Strategy**: For inventory management of growers, when the selling pressure is high, short - sell soybean futures (A2601) with a 30% hedging ratio above 4100; sell call options (A2511 - C - 4050) with a 30% hedging ratio. For procurement management, wait for the price to bottom out in the fourth quarter before making forward purchases [6]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The spot market sentiment was stable, and prices remained high but stagnated. There were no auction arrangements this week [8]. - **Negative Information**: The transaction volume of state - reserve auctions was limited, and the market demand focused on high - protein soybeans. The resumption of US soybean imports due to Sino - US negotiations will be negative for domestic medium - and low - protein soybean prices [8]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Concerns - The import rhythm of US soybeans will become clearer. Observe whether selling pressure emerges actively after the spot price stagnates [7][9]. 3.3 Market Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - In the last week of October, soybean prices stagnated at a high level, with a weekly decline of - 0.05%, forming a doji candlestick. Trading volume and open interest remained high, and the registered warehouse receipts were 7238 lots [9]. - **Basis Structure**: During the week, the spot - futures prices of domestic soybeans consolidated at a high level after a rebound, and the basis changed little. **Spread Structure**: Contract 11 was weak, while contract 01 was strong, and the overall spread change was insignificant [17][19]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - In the Heilongjiang soybean - producing area, the price of 39 - protein clean grains oscillated at 2 yuan per catty, and the planting profit increased significantly compared to the previous year. Mid - stream trading enterprises' willingness to store grains increased, but the profit of building warehouses and storing grains was uncertain. Down - stream demand was active, high - protein soybeans were in short supply, and prices were firm. The crushing profit changed slightly, and oil mills' acquisition was at a moderate level [29]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply Side and Deduction - The supply of high - protein soybeans in the new season will decrease due to the increase in high - oil soybean area in the Northeast and the reduced production in the South. It will take about 10 months until the next effective supply, and the supply of high - protein soybeans will gradually tighten. The supply of medium - and low - protein soybeans will increase. Pay attention to the arrival rhythm of imported soybeans at the end of the fourth quarter and the change in oil mills' acquisition intensity caused by soybean meal price fluctuations [33][34]. 3.5.2 Demand Side and Deduction - In the last week of October, the edible consumption market of domestic soybeans turned from off - season to peak season, with demand mainly for high - protein soybeans. Near the end of the year, downstream enterprises' stocking efforts are expected to continue, supporting the prices of high - quality soybeans. The demand for oil - soybeans depends on the performance of soybean meal and soybean oil prices. Pay attention to the arrival quantity in December and soybean meal prices to see if the crushing demand can have a phased increase similar to last year [34].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The impact of new - season corn in October has been effectively released, with prices hitting the bottom and rebounding. In November, the supply - side pressure will ease, but the supply level remains high [2]. - The domestic corn production increase trend is certain, and the market continues to digest the price pressure brought by the increase. The price is mainly in the bottom - shock stage. The probability of forming an important bottom in the price is relatively high in the fourth - quarter supply - peak period [8]. - In 2026, the pig production capacity control measures may gradually show results, which may have a negative impact on the corn feed demand situation, while the deep - processing demand situation is stable [8]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Supply - side situation**: The national autumn grain harvest is over 85%. Corn harvest is basically completed except in some late - harvest areas. The supply is still in a loose period, and the most obvious impact stage of concentrated listing on corn prices may have ended in October. The supply pressure in November will ease, but the supply level remains high [2]. - **Price performance**: Last week, the spot price was in a stable consolidation stage after the first - round impact of new - season grain sources. The corn futures price showed a bottom - hitting and rebounding trend, and the starch market was relatively stable [2]. - **Trading logic**: In the short - term, the domestic corn price is mainly in the bottom - shock stage. In the long - term, the domestic corn supply - demand contradiction has eased, and the price is likely to form an important bottom in the fourth quarter. However, in 2026, the pig production capacity control may affect the corn feed demand [8]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Trend judgment**: The current futures price is in the second - round bottom - testing process, and the 2100 - yuan mark support is effective in the short - term. It is recommended to close short positions and wait and see when entering the 2050 - 2100 - yuan range. Options can consider selling options based on the 2050 - 2230 - yuan range shock [9]. - **Basis, spread, and hedging arbitrage strategies**: The basis spread has little change, and no strategy is recommended. The 1 - 5 spread of corn has narrowed, and the spread structure is relatively steep. It is not suitable for hedging in the raw material and feed demand ends for now. Pay attention to the buy - starch and sell - corn arbitrage operation [9][12]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price range forecast**: The price range of corn is 2050 - 2200 yuan, and that of starch is 2350 - 2550 yuan [21]. - **Risk strategies**: Different strategies are recommended for inventory management and procurement management, such as shorting corn futures, selling call options, selling put options, and buying far - month contracts [21]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Time 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: The state reserve continues to purchase to support the market, the North China purchase and sales have recovered, the spot price is stable, the agricultural product trade situation is expected to improve, the cold weather is conducive to grain storage, and the deep - processing acquisition willingness is strong [25]. - **Negative information**: The corn market harvest is gradually ending, but the new - grain listing level is high, and the price pressure is still large [23]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Event Attention - Pay attention to the auction purchase transaction situation of China Grain Reserves Corporation, the price - support strength of the state reserve acquisition in the Northeast, and whether the corn report guidance affected by the US government shutdown can be restored [26]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Domestic market**: The corn futures price showed a bottom - hitting and rebounding trend last week, with the main 01 contract slightly down 3 yuan/ton. The starch market was relatively stable, and the main 01 contract of starch was down 1 yuan/ton, performing slightly stronger than the corn disk [2][25]. - **Fund flow**: The total position of the corn 01 contract increased, and the trading volume decreased. The total position and trading volume of the starch 01 contract were basically the same as the previous week [25]. - **Basis and spread structure**: The basis structure changed little, and the term - spread structure of corn was still relatively steep. The near - far - month spread slightly shrank. Pay attention to the buy - starch and sell - corn arbitrage operation [32][39][55]. 3.2 External Market - The CBOT corn futures closed higher last week, but the futures price fell from the short - term high due to the disappointment of bullish expectations. The US spot corn harvest is in the final stage, and the market is waiting for relevant data guidance [58]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - **Planting profit**: The planting profit is better than last year, especially in the Northeast and other yield - increasing areas [64]. - **Trading profit**: As the corn price stabilizes, traders are cautious in building inventories, and there is a small amount of trading profit [64]. - **Deep - processing profit**: The corn starch profit continues to recover, while the profit of the corn - to - ethanol industry has significantly declined [64]. - **Disk profit**: The basis of Jinzhou Port is neutral, and the disk profit is not obvious. It is not suitable to enter the market for hedging, but enterprises with low inventory - building costs can pay attention to far - month hedging [64]. 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking The import profit of corn has decreased due to the rise in the external market [66]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - **China's corn supply - demand balance sheet**: The sown area, output, and total supply of corn have increased in recent years. The consumption is relatively stable, and the annual surplus has fluctuated [70]. - **Global corn supply - demand balance sheet**: The global corn supply and demand are basically balanced, but the inventory - consumption ratio has decreased [71]. 5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - **Domestic supply**: In November, the corn supply is in the stage of declining from the peak. The selling pressure will decrease with the drop in temperature in the Northeast. The import volume is expected to remain at a low level [73]. - **Inventory situation**: The inventory of northern ports has stopped rising, and the inventory of southern ports has stopped falling and rebounded. The overall low inventory provides space for later corn purchase and sales activities [75]. - **Foreign corn**: The US corn futures price rose, but the lack of corn purchase commitments in the Sino - US trade agreement limited its upward space. The impact on China is limited [77]. 5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - **Feed demand**: It is expected to remain at a high level in the fourth quarter. The pig breeding profit has recovered, but the pig production capacity reduction may affect the corn feed demand in 2026 [79]. - **Deep - processing demand**: The fourth quarter is the traditional consumption peak season for corn deep - processing products. The low - price corn attracts downstream enterprises to increase their start - up rates, and the consumption of corn is expected to increase [83].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The "15th Five-Year Plan" draft provides future focus directions, and the Sino-US economic and trade consultation has reached a phased consensus, but the long - term game remains. The manufacturing PMI has declined marginally, and the economy needs policy support. Overseas, the Fed has cut interest rates with internal differences, and the market's interest - rate cut expectation has cooled [2]. - The RMB exchange rate is in a tug - of - war around 7.10. Last week, the USD/CNY spot rate showed a V - shaped reversal, and it is expected to trade in the 7.09 - 7.14 range this week [3][4]. - Short - term stock index is expected to fluctuate mainly due to a dull news environment. Treasury bonds suggest holding medium - term long positions. The container shipping European line is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations [7][8][13]. - Precious metals are in a short - term adjustment phase, and copper's 12 - month contract has reached its high. Aluminum is expected to be in high - level fluctuations, and alumina may be in weak fluctuations [18][21][23]. - Zinc is expected to be in narrow - range fluctuations, and nickel and stainless steel are under fundamental pressure. Tin is in high - level fluctuations, and lithium carbonate is expected to be in an oscillating and relatively strong state [26][29][30]. - Industrial silicon is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, and polycrystalline silicon has a weak fundamental situation. Lead is expected to be in narrow - range fluctuations [34][35][36]. - Steel products are expected to be in an oscillating adjustment. Iron ore has limited upward space, and coking coal and coke are suitable for long - position allocation in the black sector [37][40][41]. - Ferroalloys are expected to oscillate due to high inventory and weak demand. Crude oil is expected to oscillate in the $60 - 65 range this week [42][46]. - LPG is affected by cost. PX - PTA is expected to be strong and oscillating with the cost, and MEG is expected to be in wide - range fluctuations and maintain a short - position allocation [48][52][55]. - Methanol 01 may continue to decline, and PP and PE are in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation. Pure benzene and styrene are expected to be in low - level fluctuations [57][61][64]. - Fuel oil's cracking is weakening, and low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking is strengthening. Asphalt's basis is weakening [68][69][72]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macroeconomy - China's October official manufacturing PMI fell to 49, and the non - manufacturing index rose to 50.1. Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates with internal differences, and Powell's hawkish speech reduced the probability of a December interest - rate cut [1][2]. RMB Exchange Rate - Last week, the USD/CNY spot rate showed a V - shaped reversal. It is expected to trade in the 7.09 - 7.14 range this week, and the key technical point around 7.10 is the focus of the battle between bulls and bears [3][4]. Stock Index - Last Friday, most stock indexes fell except for the CSI 1000. Short - term news is dull, and it is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to hold positions and wait and see [5][7]. Treasury Bonds - Last week, treasury bonds rose significantly. The central bank's stance on supporting monetary policy and resuming secondary - market bond purchases improved market expectations. It is recommended to hold medium - term long positions [7][8]. Container Shipping European Line - There are both positive and negative factors. The contract price is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations in the 1800 - 1900 point range. Trend traders can wait, and arbitrage traders can pay attention to the spread between EC2512 and EC2602 [10][11][13]. Precious Metals - Last week, precious metals continued to adjust. Although the medium - and long - term prices are expected to rise, the short - term is in an adjustment phase. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips [15][16][18]. Copper - The 12 - month contract of copper has reached its high. In November, the market focuses on the 1 - month contract. If the December interest - rate cut expectation increases, there may be an upward impulse [19][21]. Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum is affected by macro - policies and is expected to be in high - level fluctuations. Alumina is in a supply - surplus state and may be in weak fluctuations. Cast aluminum alloy has strong follow - up to aluminum and is expected to be in high - level fluctuations [23][24][25]. Zinc - Zinc prices are in narrow - range fluctuations. There is an upward drive in November, and it is recommended to wait and see exports and the macro - situation [25][26]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The prices of nickel and stainless steel are under fundamental pressure. The 12 - month interest - rate cut expectation is uncertain, and the Sino - US tariff situation is changeable [27][29]. Tin - Tin prices are in high - level fluctuations, mainly affected by the weakening of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. It is recommended to go long in the short - term and conduct high - selling and low - buying operations [30]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price is expected to be in an oscillating and relatively strong state in the 74000 - 85000 yuan/ton range, affected by supply and demand factors [30][31]. Industrial Silicon and Polycrystalline Silicon - Industrial silicon is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, and polycrystalline silicon has a weak fundamental situation. It is recommended to be cautious when investing in polycrystalline silicon [33][34][35]. Lead - Lead prices are in narrow - range fluctuations. It is recommended to use option double - selling strategies to earn option premiums [36]. Steel Products - Steel products are in an oscillating adjustment. The follow - up apparent demand needs to be improved, and it is affected by raw material costs and the macro - environment [37]. Iron Ore - Iron ore is facing a situation of "exhausted macro - benefits and pressured fundamentals". It is recommended to short at high levels after valuation repair [38][39][40]. Coking Coal and Coke - Downstream coking plants and steel mills are actively replenishing inventory. Coking coal and coke are suitable for long - position allocation in the black sector [41]. Ferroalloys - Ferroalloys are facing the contradiction of high inventory and weak demand. After the macro - sentiment fades, they are expected to oscillate [42]. Crude Oil - Last week, crude oil was in a sideways adjustment. This week, it is expected to oscillate in the $60 - 65 range, and it is difficult to break through [44][46]. LPG - LPG is affected by cost. The domestic fundamental support is relatively limited, and it is mainly affected by the cost side [47][48]. PX - PTA - PTA's price has rebounded due to the "anti - involution" rumor and improved fundamentals. It is expected to be strong and oscillating with the cost, but the surplus expectation remains [49][50][52]. MEG - Bottle Chip - Ethylene glycol's demand has improved marginally, but the valuation is under pressure due to the inventory accumulation expectation. It is recommended to short at high levels [53][54][55]. Methanol - Methanol 01 may continue to decline due to the delay of the Iranian gas - restriction expectation [56][57]. PP - PP is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation. The supply pressure is difficult to fundamentally relieve, and it is expected to be weak [59][61]. PE - PE is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation. The supply pressure is large, and the demand support is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to macro - changes [63][64]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene is expected to be weak due to the expected inventory accumulation. Styrene has high inventory and de - stocking pressure. It is recommended to short after a rebound [66][67]. Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil's cracking is weakening, and low - sulfur fuel oil's cracking is strengthening due to improved fundamentals [68][69]. Asphalt - Asphalt's basis is weakening. The short - term is affected by external disturbances, and the long - term demand in the south may be boosted [70][72].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The core contradiction in the current crude oil market is that short - term geopolitical and macro - level positive factors have been mostly digested. The market driver has entered a vacuum period, and the focus has returned to the fundamentals, but the pressure has not been relieved. Coupled with the uncertainty of the OPEC+ meeting, the market is in a low - level oscillation with a risk of decline. Without new positive factors, the fundamentals will continue to suppress, and the oil price is likely to fall within the oscillation range to digest the previous emotional premium [1]. - In the short - term, the trading logic is mainly the game between geopolitical disturbances and macro - level emotions. In the long - term, it is dominated by fundamentals and structural changes, with a continuous supply surplus pressure [3][4]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradiction and Strategy Suggestions 1.1 Core Contradiction - The short - term geopolitical and macro - level positive factors have been digested. The market has entered a vacuum period, and the focus is back on fundamentals. The OPEC+ meeting on November 2nd is a key variable. Iraq's request to increase its quota may lead to an unexpected meeting result. Without new positive factors, the oil price is likely to fall within the 60 - 65 US dollars oscillation range [1]. 1.2 Speculative Strategy Suggestions - The market is expected to have a short - term rebound and repair, and a medium - term weak oscillation. - For the unilateral strategy, short positions can be taken when Brent rebounds to 66 - 68 US dollars, with a stop - loss at 70 US dollars. - For the arbitrage strategy, a reverse arbitrage is recommended. - For the options strategy, it is advisable to wait and see [7]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: - The US sanctions on Russian energy companies led to concerns about supply, pushing the Brent crude oil to rise 7.6% in a single week, and the near - month WTI and Brent crude oil prices approached 62 US dollars/barrel and exceeded 66 US dollars/barrel respectively [8]. - The significant decline in US crude oil, gasoline, and diesel inventories implies an improvement in demand, which may support the oil price [9]. - The improvement in Sino - US economic and trade relations boosts the demand expectation and provides short - term support for the oil price [10]. - **Negative Information**: - Fed Chairman Powell said that a December interest rate cut is not certain, and the market's pricing probability for a December rate cut dropped from 92% to 70% [11]. 2.2 Next Week's Concerns - The OPEC+ ministerial meeting on November 2nd will discuss the December production policy. The mainstream expectation is a continued small - scale increase of 13.7 million barrels per day. Iraq's request to increase its quota from 4.4 million to 5.5 million barrels per day may disrupt the balance. If the increase exceeds expectations, the oil price may fall to 60 US dollars; otherwise, it may rebound to 65 US dollars [13]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Volume - Price and Capital Interpretation - **Trend Analysis**: The crude oil price first fell and then stabilized this week. The position was at a high level, and the trend indicators improved, with the market sentiment gradually warming up. The SC position percentile was 79.26%, indicating an active capital side [15]. - **Domestic Market**: The disk rebounded and repaired, breaking the previous downward trend. The SC2512 rose 6.87% this week, closing at 468.9 yuan/barrel. As of October 31st, the INE crude oil futures position was 74,991 lots, a decrease of 8,814 lots week - on - week [17][18]. - **Foreign Market**: On Friday, the US oil main contract closed down 0.57% at 60.98 US dollars/barrel, a weekly decrease of 0.85%; the Brent crude oil main contract settled at 65.07 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 1.32% from last Friday. Affected by the US government shutdown, the CFTC did not release the WTI position data. As of October 28th, the ICE Brent crude oil futures position was 3,025,757 contracts, a decrease of 77,164 contracts week - on - week; the managed fund net long position was 173,887 contracts, an increase of 122,096 contracts week - on - week [18]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Crude Oil Market Monthly Spread Tracking - As of October 31st, the Brent monthly spread (01 - 03) was 0.87 US dollars/barrel, the WTI monthly spread (01 - 03) was 0.72 US dollars/barrel, and the SC monthly spread (01 - 03) was - 0.7 yuan/barrel. The monthly spreads of both domestic and foreign crude oils weakened [26]. 4.2 Crude Oil Regional Spread Tracking - As of October 24th, the SC - Brent spread was - 0.56 US dollars/barrel, and the Brent - WTI spread was 3.52 US dollars/barrel. The spread between SC and Brent crude oil weakened again due to the stronger support of geopolitical risk premiums for foreign crude oil [30]. 4.3 Crude Oil Downstream Valuation Tracking - As of October 24th, the crude oil cracking spreads in the European market strengthened comprehensively this week. In North America and the Asia - Pacific region, diesel cracking was stronger than gasoline. In the Chinese market, the cracking spreads weakened, and refinery profits continued to decline [38]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Side Tracking - From October 18th - 24th, the US crude oil production was 13.644 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 15,000 barrels per day. From October 25th - 31st, the number of active US oil rigs was 414, a week - on - week decrease of 6 [52]. 5.2 Demand - Side Tracking - From October 18th - 24th, the US refinery crude oil input was 15.219 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 511,000 barrels per day, and the refinery operating rate was 86.6%, a week - on - week decrease of 2 percentage points. From October 24th - 30th, the capacity utilization rate of independent refineries in China was 62.38%, a week - on - week increase of 1.03 percentage points, and that of major refineries was 80.50%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.39 percentage points [54]. 5.3 Inventory - Side Tracking - As of October 24th, the total US commercial crude oil inventory was 415,966 thousand barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 6,858 thousand barrels; the strategic petroleum inventory was 409,097 thousand barrels, a week - on - week increase of 533 thousand barrels; the Cushing region's petroleum inventory was 22,565 thousand barrels, a week - on - week increase of 1,334 thousand barrels. As of October 29th, the commercial crude oil inventory index at Chinese ports was 108.42, a week - on - week decrease of 1.13%, and the storage capacity accounted for 59.23% of the total capacity, a week - on - week decrease of 0.67 percentage points [56]. 5.4 Import - Export Tracking - From October 18th - 24th, the US crude oil export volume was 4.361 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 158,000 barrels per day, and the petroleum product export volume was 6.666 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 687,000 barrels per day. From October 14th - 20th, the Middle East's seaborne crude oil export volume was 16.4168 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 1.66%. This week, Russia's seaborne crude oil export volume was 3.8752 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 20.19% [58]. 5.5 Balance Sheet Tracking - EIA continued to raise its forecast for global crude oil and related liquid production in 2025 and 2026. It is expected that in 2025, the global production will be 105.85 million barrels per day, an increase of 2.67 million barrels per day compared to 2024; in 2026, it will be 107.17 million barrels per day, an increase of 1.31 million barrels per day compared to 2025. - OPEC maintained its forecast for global crude oil and related liquid demand in 2025 and 2026. In 2025, the demand will be 105.14 million barrels per day, an increase of 1.3 million barrels per day compared to 2024. In 2026, it will be 106.52 million barrels per day, an increase of 1.38 million barrels per day compared to 2025. - IEA slightly lowered its forecast for the growth rate of global crude oil and related liquid demand in 2025 and 2026 in its October report [61][62].

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current macro - demand environment is weak, and some varieties with previously high industrial profits have a need for catch - up declines. However, overall valuations are low, so there is little point in chasing short positions for most varieties. Waiting may be the best choice. The decline process can test fundamentals, and only varieties with real fundamental improvements can show long - lasting resistance during the overall market decline. Attention can be paid to varieties with a continuous divergence structure and those that increase positions, volume, and resist decline during the fall [2][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1. Weekly Market Viewpoint Summary - The market is centered around several themes: the US's intention to sanction Russia has led to a rebound in the crude oil market; the China - US trade negotiation has been settled with a one - year suspension of some measures; the implementation of Indonesia's B50 has encountered obstacles, causing palm oil prices to weaken. Crude oil's medium - to - long - term supply and demand remain weak, but with a low valuation, it is regarded as oscillating. China will purchase some US soybeans, providing short - term support, but the rebound space depends on the uncertainty of South American supply. The soybean - palm oil spread has continuously rebounded and significantly repaired. The high cost of promoting biodiesel at current palm oil prices has left the Indonesian government with no solutions, leading to an obvious decline in palm oil prices. The recent weakness of methanol can be seen as a catch - up decline due to its previously high production profit. In a weak macro - demand environment, high industrial profits are unlikely to last, and a valuation decline is likely. The "Zhui Feng 1" product recommended short - selling palm oil and recently exited the position according to the rules, mainly because of the palm oil's fundamental logic. Instead of relying on frequent market predictions, strategies should be used. The "Zhui Feng 1" and "Zhui Feng 2" consulting products can be subscribed to via [Nanhua Futures App - Selected Research Reports - Strategy Research Selection], and both have free trials [4]. 3.2. Data Tables - **Plate Capital Flow**: The total capital is 15.604 billion. Among them, precious metals had an outflow of 2.667 billion (-33.0%), non - ferrous metals had an inflow of 2.116 billion (35.8%), black metals had an outflow of 481 million (-10.7%), energy had an outflow of 341 million (-22.8%), chemicals had an inflow of 320 million (9.9%), feed and breeding had an inflow of 54 million (2.6%), oils and fats had an outflow of 405 million (-9.0%), and soft commodities had an inflow of 4 million (0.2%) [8]. - **Black and Non - ferrous Metals Weekly Data**: Data on price, inventory, valuation, position, position difference, and annualized basis for various black and non - ferrous metal varieties such as iron ore, rebar, and copper are provided [8]. - **Energy and Chemical Weekly Data**: Similar data for energy and chemical varieties like fuel oil, low - sulfur oil, and asphalt are presented [10]. - **Agricultural Products Weekly Data**: Data on agricultural product varieties including soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and soybean oil are given [11]. 3.3. Graphs - Graphs showing the capital flow of black varieties, olefin varieties, polyester varieties, other chemical varieties, energy varieties, oils and fats varieties, agricultural and sideline varieties, and non - ferrous metal plate varieties are included, with data sources from WIND and Nanhua Research [12][14][17][21][22][23][27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current spot market for caustic soda is weaker than expected, with non - aluminum sectors showing no obvious restocking behavior and speculative demand remaining subdued. As maintenance work concludes, supply pressure is rising, and the strong price of liquid chlorine is weakening cost support [1]. - The high - profit and high - production pattern restricts the price increase of caustic soda. There are limited overall contradictions, but the near - term demand and restocking rhythm are falling short of expectations, leading to a judgment of weak and volatile prices. It is recommended to adopt range - bound trading strategies within the range of [2200, 2400] [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - **Near - term trading logic**: The overall spot market is weak, with non - aluminum restocking falling short of expectations. Alumina is under pressure, with local supply adjustments and a slight decline in operating rates, which may affect the demand outlook for caustic soda. The chlor - alkali industry maintains medium - to - high profits, and the recent strength of liquid chlorine weakens cost support. Production is increasing, and supply pressure persists [1]. - **Long - term trading expectations**: High profits limit price increases. In the medium - to - long term, there is continued pressure from new production capacity. The realization degree and timing of downstream alumina production capacity may vary, affecting the phased restocking rhythm [1]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Market positioning**: The high - profit and high - production pattern restricts the price space of caustic soda. Overall contradictions are limited, but near - term demand and restocking rhythm are below expectations. It is recommended to trade within the range of [2200, 2400] [5]. - **Basis, calendar spread, and hedging arbitrage strategy recommendations**: Current short positions on a single - side basis are advised to be closed, or wait for signs of the spot market hitting bottom [6]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price range forecast**: The predicted monthly price range for caustic soda is 2200 - 2400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 22.75% and a historical percentile of 43.8% over three years [7]. - **Risk management strategy recommendations**: For inventory management, when product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, enterprises can short caustic soda futures to lock in profits and sell call options to collect premiums. For procurement management, when the regular inventory for procurement is low, enterprises can buy caustic soda futures to lock in procurement costs and sell put options to collect premiums [7]. 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Factory - gate prices**: The factory - gate prices of 32% caustic soda in various regions on October 31, 2025, mostly remained unchanged compared to the previous day, except for a 1.5% decrease in Shaanxi Beiyuan. The prices of 50% caustic soda and flake caustic soda also showed little change, with a 1.5% decrease in Shandong flake caustic soda [8][9]. - **Price differentials**: The price differentials between different grades and regions of caustic soda were mostly stable on October 31, 2025, with a 10 - yuan decrease in the price differential of 50% caustic soda between Guangdong and Shandong [9]. - **Futures prices and spreads**: On October 31, 2025, the caustic soda 05 contract increased by 0.12%, the 09 contract decreased by 0.16%, and the 01 contract decreased by 0.3%. The basis and spreads also showed corresponding changes [10]. 3.2 Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Focus Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: There are still expectations for downstream aluminum plants to stock up on caustic soda from November to December, which may boost the spot market [10]. - **Negative information**: Caustic soda production continues to recover, increasing supply pressure. Non - aluminum sectors have not shown concentrated restocking. The high price of liquid chlorine weakens cost support [13]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Whether liquid chlorine prices will continue to rise, which would further weaken the cost support for caustic soda. - Observe the mid - and downstream demand, especially whether non - aluminum sectors will show restocking signs. - Monitor whether inventory accumulation continues [13]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Interpretation - The main 2601 contract of caustic soda showed low - level fluctuations this week, with the absolute price reaching a relatively low level for the year. This is mainly related to market sentiment and weak market conditions, as non - aluminum downstream restocking in the short - term fell short of expectations [14]. - **Basis and spread structure**: The spot market remained stable, with the 32% caustic soda from Shandong Jinling converted to the futures price at 2406 yuan/ton, with a premium of 95 - 100 yuan over the 01 contract. The spot market was weak, and the 12 - 01 spread was positive [16]. 3.4 Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - Profit valuation is moderately high. This week, the price of industrial salt remained stable, while the price of liquid chlorine was strong, resulting in high chlor - alkali profits. Currently, the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is 250 yuan/ton, and in Jiangsu it is 200 yuan/ton (up 100 yuan). The current profit of caustic soda in Shandong is over 400 yuan/ton (including liquid chlorine) [21]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - In terms of exports, the CFR price in Southeast Asia increased by 5 US dollars week - on - week to around 460 US dollars, remaining generally stable. There is an expected substitution effect on overseas caustic soda demand, and the sustainability of exports needs to be observed [28]. 3.5 Chapter 5: Supply, Demand, and Inventory 3.5.1 Spot Data - **Caustic soda prices**: The report provides historical price trends of 32% caustic soda, 50% caustic soda, and flake caustic soda in different regions, as well as price differentials between regions and grades, and spot - to - futures conversion prices [30][35][40]. - **External market prices**: It shows the historical price trends of caustic soda in international markets such as Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, the United States, and Western Europe [84]. 3.5.2 Supply Side - **Production losses**: It presents the seasonal trends of weekly and monthly production losses of caustic soda [93]. - **Liquid caustic soda production and operating rates**: The weekly and monthly production and operating rates of liquid caustic soda in different regions are provided, showing an overall upward trend in production and relatively stable operating rates [95][96]. - **Flake caustic soda production and operating rates**: The weekly production and operating rates of flake caustic soda in different regions are presented, with production and operating rates also showing certain trends [105]. 3.5.3 Demand Side - **Downstream product data**: It includes the spot price, cost, and profit of alumina, as well as the operating rates of downstream products such as propylene oxide, epichlorohydrin, and viscose staple fiber [112][113]. - **Export structure**: The export structure of caustic soda by continent is shown [119]. 3.5.4 Inventory - **Liquid caustic soda inventory**: The weekly factory inventories of liquid caustic soda in different regions and the overall inventory trends are provided [121][124]. - **Flake caustic soda inventory**: The weekly factory inventories and total industry inventories of flake caustic soda in different regions are presented [140][142].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The core contradictions affecting PVC trends include weak demand leading to high inventory and large warrant pressure, slow supply clearance due to enterprise nature or material balance issues, and an oversupply situation caused by new PVC production capacity and insufficient domestic demand [1]. - The PVC market is currently in a state of stabilizing from a decline and entering a phase of range - bound trading, but there is still a possibility of further decline. However, the downside space is limited, and selling options may yield higher comprehensive returns than long - term bottom - fishing [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Weak demand in recent years has led to high visible inventory and large warrant pressure, suppressing the monthly spread near the risk - free level [1]. - Despite low upstream profits, supply clearance is slow due to enterprise - related or material - balance issues [1]. - This year is a peak year for new PVC production capacity, and domestic demand cannot absorb the increased volume, leading to a continuous deterioration of the fundamentals [1]. 1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: The PVC market is in a state of stabilizing from a decline and entering a phase of range - bound trading, with limited downside space, about 100 - 200 yuan. Selling options may have higher comprehensive returns [5]. - **Basis, Monthly Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: - Basis strategy: Full - scale hedging should continue to roll in and out [6]. - Monthly spread strategy: Hold the 1 - 5 reverse spread [7]. - Hedging arbitrage strategy: Consider selling put options on PVC and caustic soda simultaneously. The probability of loss for this position is low, and the overall risk is controllable [7]. - **Recent Strategy Review**: - Continue to hold PVC selling 4600PUT and SH selling 2320PUT, proposed on October 12 [8]. - Continue to hold the previous double - selling of put options and gradually sell 4900CALL in batches, proposed on October 26 [8]. 2. This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: - The overall inventory in East China has decreased for the first time in the past three to four months, but the sustainability after the subsequent increase in production is uncertain [17]. - There is an expectation of price increases in Qinghai salt and inland coal due to tight supply [17]. - The Sino - US negotiation feedback is good, and the overall risk appetite has improved [17]. - **Negative Information**: - Formosa Plastics in Taiwan has significantly lowered the market pre - sale price for November by about $40, suppressing China's export market [12]. - Traditional industrial products remain weak, and many varieties are continuously being short - sold [12]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: The market continued to decline this week, but the trading volume did not increase again. The willingness to hold goods was poor, and the basis changed little [14]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Focus on the sunset review of anti - dumping by India, which is expected to be finalized around mid - November, with a high market expectation of continuation [18]. - Pay attention to the Politburo meeting [18]. 3. Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Unilateral Trend and Capital Movement**: In the first half of the week, due to the positive sentiment of the Sino - US negotiation, short - sellers reduced their positions. In the second half of the week, after the negotiation results were confirmed, short - sellers increased their positions, and PVC reached a new low [19]. - **Basis and Monthly Spread Structure**: The basis changed little this week, and the 1 - 5 monthly spread weakened from - 292 to - 309, moving in sync with the basis [21]. 4. Conventional Industry Data Display 4.1 Inventory Changes and Pre - sales - Various inventory data, including PVC warehouse receipt quantity, social inventory, factory inventory, and upstream net inventory, are presented seasonally [23][25][31]. 4.2 Disk Indicators and Spot - Multiple disk indicators, such as futures trading volume, open interest, basis, and monthly spread, are shown seasonally [37][38][44]. 4.3 Industrial Chain Production Profit Situation - The production profit data of different links in the PVC industrial chain, including chlorine - alkali, ethylene - based, and related by - products, are presented seasonally [66][68][79]. 4.4 Output Situation - New production capacity plans from 2024 to 2026 are listed, with a total of 60 in 2024, 260 in 2025, and 190 in 2026 [106]. - The weekly and monthly output data of PVC, including电石 - based and ethylene - based, are presented seasonally, along with production capacity utilization rates [107][112][115]. 4.5 Import and Export - The import and export volume data of PVC powder, PVC paste resin, and related products are presented seasonally, along with export - related indicators such as export backlog and export profit [117][120][123]. 4.6 Downstream Feedback - The price and export data of downstream PVC products, such as profiles, wall coverings, and pipes, are presented, along with the operating rates of downstream industries [160][163][165]. 4.7 Real Estate Data - Multiple real - estate - related data, including development funds, construction area, sales area, and cement - related data, are presented seasonally [173][174][192]. 4.8 Disk Ratio - The PVC/PP, PVC/PE, PVC/FG, and PVC/RB disk ratio data are presented seasonally [198][199][200].