瑞达期货研究院 「2025.09.12」 硅铁市场周报 电费上调成本增加，短期价格有所支撑 研究员：徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链情况 「 周度要点小结2」 行情回顾及展望 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 宏观方面，深圳市罗湖等多区放开限购，非深户可买两套；限购区域大幅放宽，限购人群历史性放宽；中国8月按美元计价出 口同比增长4.4%，进口同比增长1.3%，集成电路和汽车出口增长明显；中国7月外汇储备规模环比上涨0.91%，央行连续第10 个月增持黄金。 2. 海外方面，俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京启动了太平洋铁路，该条铁路连接雅库特和哈巴罗夫斯克边疆区。新线路全长531公里， 耗时两年建成，年煤炭运输能力可达5000万吨，将促进该地区的发展。；美国政府公布初步基准修订数据，截至今年3月的一 年间，美国非农就业人数被下修91.1万，相当于每月平均少增近7.6万人。 3. 供需方面，前期利润改善后产量快速回升，厂家前期套保居多，库存中性偏弱， ...

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. Core Views - Macro: The six - department joint special rectification action on automotive industry network chaos, the expected Fed rate cuts, potential G7 tariff pressure on China and India, and the Trump tariff appeal case all bring information disturbances. The anti - involution policy causes the market to fluctuate between long and short positions. The rise in coal prices supports the rebound of alloys. China's August PPI decline narrowed by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month [6]. - Supply and Demand: Production has been on an upward trend since mid - May. After the previous price increase, inventory has decreased for 5 consecutive weeks to a neutral level. The port inventory of imported manganese ore decreased by 3200 tons, and the downstream hot metal production dropped significantly due to parade - related production control. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 110 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 410 yuan/ton. The steel mill procurement tender price in August increased by 150 yuan/ton month - on - month [6]. - Technical: The weekly K - line of the manganese - silicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish weekly trend. - Strategy: The silicon - manganese market is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5800 - 6000 [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - Macro: The six - department joint action focuses on rectifying illegal profit - making, exaggerated and false publicity, and malicious slander in the automotive industry. China's August PPI declined by 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points. Traders expect the Fed to cut interest rates three times by the end of 2025. The US may pressure the G7 to impose tariffs on China and India for purchasing Russian oil, and the US Supreme Court will hear the Trump tariff appeal case in early November [6]. - Overseas: The Fed will announce interest rate decisions on September 17th, October 29th, and December 10th. The UK's Financial Times reported that the US will pressure the G7 to impose tariffs on China and India for buying Russian oil, and the US Supreme Court will hear the Trump tariff appeal case in early November [6]. - Supply and Demand: Production has been rising since mid - May. Inventory has decreased for 5 consecutive weeks to a neutral level. The port inventory of imported manganese ore decreased by 3200 tons, and hot metal production dropped significantly due to parade - related production control. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 110 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 410 yuan/ton. The steel mill procurement tender price in August increased by 150 yuan/ton month - on - month [6]. - Technical: The weekly K - line of the manganese - silicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish weekly trend [6]. - Strategy: The silicon - manganese market is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5800 - 6000 [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: As of September 12th, the silicon - manganese futures contract open interest was 567,000 lots, a decrease of 3730 lots week - on - week. The 5 - 1 contract monthly spread was 40, an increase of 2 points week - on - week. The manganese - silicon warehouse receipt quantity was 61,440, a decrease of 1420 week - on - week. The price difference between the manganese - silicon and silicon - iron January contracts was 258, a decrease of 32 points week - on - week [12][16]. - Spot Market: As of September 12th, the Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese spot price was 5680 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton week - on - week. The basis was - 152 yuan/ton, an increase of 92 points week - on - week [24]. 3. Industrial Chain - Production: The national average daily output of silicon - manganese was 30,590 tons, an increase of 185 tons. The demand for silicon - manganese in the five major steel types was 122,314 tons, a decrease of 1.09% week - on - week. The national silicon - manganese output was 214,130 tons, an increase of 0.61% week - on - week. Production has generally been on the rise since mid - May [27]. - Inventory: As of September 11th, the national silicon - manganese inventory was 166,800 tons, an increase of 6300 tons week - on - week [32]. - Upstream: As of September 12th, the price of South32 South African semi - carbonate lump at Tianjin Port was 34.2 yuan/ton - degree, an increase of 0.4 yuan/ton - degree. As of September 8th, the electricity price for silicon - manganese and silicon - iron in Ningxia was 0.40 yuan/kWh, an increase of 0.02 yuan/kWh; in Inner Mongolia, it was 0.42 yuan/kWh, unchanged. The port inventory of imported manganese ore was 443.20 million tons, an increase of 1.80 million tons week - on - week. The global shipment volume of South African manganese ore decreased by 1.52% week - on - week, that of Australian manganese ore increased by 24.53% week - on - week, and that of Gabonese manganese ore decreased by 5.06% week - on - week. The global shipment volume of Ghanaian manganese ore was 0 tons [38][42]. - Profit: On September 12th, the spot production cost in the northern region was 5840 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; in the southern region, it was 6220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The spot production profit in the northern region was - 185 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton; in the southern region, it was - 550 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton [45]. - Downstream: The average daily hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 240.55 million tons, an increase of 11.71 million tons week - on - week and 17.17 million tons year - on - year. The southern steel tender price decreased month - on - month, and manufacturers face greater production pressure. The northern market price is 5600 - 5650 yuan/ton, and the southern market price is 5630 - 5680 yuan/ton [49].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.09.12」 碳酸锂市场周报 供给稳定需求增长，锂价或将有所支撑 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 目录 行情回顾：碳酸锂主力周线震荡偏弱，涨跌幅为-4.17%，振幅10.75%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价71160元/吨。 后市展望：宏观方面，国家统计局公布数据显示，受基数走高影响和食品价格拖累，中国8月CPI环比持平，同比下降 0.4%，核心CPI同比上涨0.9%，涨幅连续第4个月扩大。碳酸锂基本面原料端，近期碳酸锂现货价格走弱，拉拽锂矿 报价。海外矿山挺价惜售情绪较浓，国内冶炼厂询价较积极但整体成交较淡。供给方面，国内冶炼厂保持稳定小增的 生产节奏，随着锂价回调，冶炼厂库存持续下降，生产仍较为积极，国内供给量或将稳中小增。需求方面，传统消费 旺季，下游材料厂排产及新增订单情况较好，有一定刚需采买需求，下游库存不断增加，市场成交情绪有所回暖。总 体来看，碳酸锂基本面或处于供给稳定小增，需求逐步走好的阶段，产业总库存小幅下降，消费预期向好。 策略建议：轻仓逢低短 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the main contract of Zhengzhou jujube rebounded, with a weekly increase of about 1.41%. The temperature in the main production areas of Xinjiang grey jujube is between 15°C - 31°C, and the jujube trees have entered the sugar - increasing period. There may be light rain in mid - to late September, and attention should be paid to the actual rainfall and jujube fruit quality changes [10]. - As of September 11, 2025, the physical inventory of 36 sample points of jujubes this week was 9321 tons, a decrease of 89 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.95% and a year - on - year increase of 78.32%. The inventory of sample points decreased slightly. The arrival volume in the sales area market is low, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is average, and the overall trading atmosphere is light. The mentality of holders has clearly diverged, and some are reluctant to sell and are waiting to see the future market. The supply - demand contradiction has not been effectively alleviated, and the market is still in a state of seeking direction in dynamic balance [10]. - It is recommended to wait and see for the short - term operation of the Zhengzhou jujube 2601 contract [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Key Points Summary - Future trading tips include spot price and consumer end [10]. - The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou jujube rebounded this week, with a weekly increase of about 1.41% [10]. - The temperature in the main production areas of Xinjiang grey jujube is between 15°C - 31°C, and the jujube trees have entered the sugar - increasing period. There may be light rain in mid - to late September, and attention should be paid to the actual rainfall and jujube fruit quality changes [10]. - As of September 11, 2025, the physical inventory of 36 sample points of jujubes this week was 9321 tons, a decrease of 89 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.95% and a year - on - year increase of 78.32%. The inventory of sample points decreased slightly [10][38]. - The arrival volume in the sales area market is low, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is average, and the overall trading atmosphere is light. The mentality of holders has clearly diverged, and some are reluctant to sell and are waiting to see the future market. The supply - demand contradiction has not been effectively alleviated, and the market is still in a state of seeking direction in dynamic balance [10]. - It is recommended to wait and see for the short - term operation of the Zhengzhou jujube 2601 contract [10]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - This week, the price of the main contract of Zhengzhou jujube: the selling price is 11155, the buying price is 11150, the latest price is 11155 with a decline of 30 or 0.27%, the current volume is 2, the trading volume is 94651, the open interest is 133338, the daily increase is - 4322, the highest price is 11270, the lowest price is 11110, the outside market volume is 46470, the settlement price is 11190, the ratio of Inner Mongolia is 50.9%, the limit - up price is 12080, and the limit - down price is 10290 [11]. - As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in jujube futures is - 4977 lots [12]. - As of this week, the number of Zhengzhou jujube warehouse receipts is 9986 [17]. - As of this week, the price difference between the 2601 contract and the 2605 contract of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange jujube futures is - 135 yuan/ton [20]. - As of this week, the basis between the spot price of Hebei grey jujube and the main contract of jujube futures is - 665 yuan/ton [23]. - As of September 12, 2025, the purchase price of jujube bulk goods in Aksu is 4.80 yuan/kg, in Alar is 5.2 yuan/kg, and in Kashgar is 6.0 yuan/kg [26]. - As of September 12, 2025, the wholesale price of first - grade grey jujubes in Cangzhou, Hebei and Henan is 4.75 yuan/jin [30]. - As of September 12, 2025, the spot price of special - grade grey jujubes in Cangzhou, Hebei is 10.49 yuan/kg, and the wholesale price in Henan is 10.5 yuan/kg [34]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation - Supply side: As of September 11, 2025, the physical inventory of 36 sample points of jujubes this week was 9321 tons, a decrease of 89 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.95% and a year - on - year increase of 78.32%. The inventory of sample points decreased slightly [10][38]. - Supply side: The jujube production has recovered significantly. In the 2024/25 production season, the jujube production increased to 606.9 million tons [41]. - Demand side: As of July 31, 2025, the monthly export volume of jujubes was 1784164 kg, a month - on - month increase of 1.08%; from January to July 2025, the cumulative export volume was 18899838 kg, a month - on - month increase of 10.42% [43]. - Demand side: The trading of BOCE Xinjiang Jujube Good Brand is cold, and there were only a small number of transactions in the order volume this week [48]. 3.4 Option Market and Futures - Stock Correlation - Option market: The implied volatility of at - the - money options of jujubes this week is presented in the figure, but no specific data is given [49]. - Stock market: The price - earnings ratio of Hao Xiang Ni is presented in the figure, but no specific data is given [51][52].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.09.12」 苹果市场周报 研究员：王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证Z0021556 关 注 微信服 务 号 业务咨询 添加客服 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：本周苹果期货2601合约价格微涨，周度涨幅0.40%。 行情展望：新季苹果方面，中熟富士上量逐渐增加，西部部分富士色度及红度因 降雨时长及日照时间短表现一般，好货价格持续坚挺。山东红将军陆续交易，质 量相对欠佳。旧作市场：据Mysteel统计，截至2025年9月11日，全国主产区苹果 冷库库存量为20.91万吨，较上周减少6.44万吨，走货较上周环比略加快。山东产 区库容比为4.33%，较上周减少1.13%；陕西产区库容比为0.21%，较上周减少 0.32%。山东产区剩余货源集中在部分乡镇，部分客商因早熟富士价格较高，红将 军上色不佳，继续调库存富士，价格相对稳定。销区市场消化速度相对稳定，因 早熟富士价格高，客商利润相对有限。关注双节备货情况。 策略建议：操作上，建议苹果2601合约短期多思路为主。 2 未来交易提示： 1、早熟富士上市量 2、消费 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况及 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the soda ash futures fell 0.92%, and the glass futures fell 0.76%. The soda ash futures showed a platform shock trend, and the glass futures also showed a platform shock trend [6]. - For soda ash, the supply is expected to be loose, the demand will stabilize, and the price will continue to be under pressure, but there may be variables with the "anti - involution" hype. For glass, the market will fluctuate around the demand side, and the overall de - stocking trend remains unchanged. There may be sentiment - driven opportunities in the short term [6]. - The recommended trading range for SA2601 contract is 1280 - 1360, with a stop - loss range of 1240 - 1380. For FG2601, the recommended operating range is 1120 - 1220, with a stop - loss range of 1100 - 1240 [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: Soda ash futures fell 0.92% this week, showing a platform shock trend. Glass futures fell 0.76%, also in a platform shock trend [6]. - **Market Outlook**: For soda ash, supply is expected to be loose, demand will stabilize, and prices will be under pressure. For glass, the market will revolve around demand, and there may be short - term sentiment - driven opportunities [6]. - **Strategy Recommendations**: SA2601 contract should be traded in the 1280 - 1360 range, with a stop - loss of 1240 - 1380. FG2601 should be operated in the 1120 - 1220 range, with a stop - loss of 1100 - 1240 [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Prices**: Both soda ash and glass futures prices closed higher this week [8]. - **Spot Prices and Basis**: Soda ash spot prices rose, and the basis strengthened. Glass spot prices strengthened, and the basis weakened but is expected to strengthen in the future. The soda ash - glass price spread weakened this week and is expected to strengthen next week [13][18][22]. - **Specific Data**: As of September 11, 2025, the mainstream price of heavy - soda ash in the Shahe market was 1197.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.5 yuan/ton, and the soda ash basis was - 89.5 yuan/ton. The price of 5.0mm large - plate glass in the Shahe market was 1072 yuan/ton, an increase of 16 yuan/ton, and the glass basis was - 113 yuan/ton. The glass - soda ash price spread was 102 yuan/ton [16][20][24]. 3.3 Industry Chain Analysis - **Soda Ash Production**: The domestic soda ash operating rate and production increased this week, and the production is expected to decline next week. As of September 11, 2025, the national soda ash operating rate was 87.46%, a week - on - week increase of 0.38%, and the national weekly soda ash production was 76.11 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.253% [26][31]. - **Corporate Profits**: Soda ash corporate profits declined this week, and costs increased. Glass corporate profits increased due to stronger spot prices. Soda ash production capacity is expected to decline next week, and glass production capacity will hover at a low level [33]. - **Glass Production**: The number of cold - repaired glass production lines remained unchanged, and the overall production increased slightly. The production is expected to increase slightly next week but with a limited increase. As of September 4, 2025, there were 296 domestic glass production lines (excluding zombie lines), 225 in production, and 71 cold - repaired and shut down. The national float glass production was 112.12 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.38% [38][42]. - **Photovoltaic Glass**: The domestic photovoltaic glass capacity utilization rate and daily melting volume increased this week and are expected to remain unchanged next week. As of September 11, 2025, the photovoltaic glass corporate capacity utilization rate was 68.52%, a week - on - week increase of 0.22%, and the domestic photovoltaic glass daily melting volume was 88,780 tons/day, a week - on - week increase of 200 tons/day [44][46]. - **Corporate Inventories**: Domestic soda ash and glass corporate inventories declined this week, and the de - stocking is expected to slow down next week. As of September 11, 2025, the soda ash corporate inventory was 179.75 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.35%, and the total glass corporate inventory was 61.583 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 2.32% [48][52]. - **Downstream Demand**: Domestic glass downstream deep - processing orders increased slightly, but the demand remains low. As of September 1, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 10.4 days [54][56].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For rapeseed oil, it is recommended to take a bullish approach and pay attention to the China - Canada talks. The market will be affected by factors such as the harvest of Canadian rapeseed, the anti - dumping measures of China, the policy adjustment of US renewable fuels, and the domestic supply - demand situation [8][9]. - For rapeseed meal, a bullish mindset is recommended, focusing on China - US and China - Canada economic and trade relations. The market is influenced by factors like the weather in the US soybean - producing areas, the USDA report, domestic supply and demand, and trade relations [12][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Key Points Summary Rapeseed Oil - Strategy: Participate with a bullish bias and monitor China - Canada talks [8]. - Market review: This week, rapeseed oil futures fluctuated slightly up. The closing price of the 01 contract was 9,857 yuan/ton, an increase of 39 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [9]. - Market outlook: Canadian rapeseed is in the harvest period with a bumper harvest. China's anti - dumping measures may pressure Canadian rapeseed prices. The US policy on renewable fuels affects the domestic vegetable oil market. Domestically, consumption is weakly boosted, but low refinery operation rates and limited near - month purchases reduce supply pressure [9]. Rapeseed Meal - Strategy: Adopt a bullish mindset and focus on China - US and China - Canada economic and trade relations [12]. - Market review: This week, rapeseed meal futures fluctuated slightly down. The closing price of the 01 contract was 2,531 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [13]. - Market outlook: Good weather in the US soybean - producing areas ensures high yields, but a decrease in planting area supports prices. Domestically, near - month rapeseed arrivals are low, and aquaculture boosts demand, but soybean meal substitution weakens the demand for rapeseed meal [13]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Price Movement - Rapeseed oil futures fluctuated slightly up this week, with a total open interest of 291,134 lots, an increase of 41,874 lots compared with last week. Rapeseed meal futures closed lower with a total open interest of 402,900 lots, an increase of 6,326 lots compared with the previous week [19]. Top 20 Net Positions - The top 20 net positions of rapeseed oil futures changed from net short to net long this week, reaching +19,239. The top 20 net positions of rapeseed meal futures changed from net long to net short, reaching - 16,117 [25]. Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil were 8,302 lots, and those of rapeseed meal were 10,383 lots [31]. Spot Price and Basis - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10,130 yuan/ton, slightly rebounding from last week. The basis between the active contract and the Jiangsu spot price was +273 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal price in Nantong, Jiangsu was 2,570 yuan/ton, with little change from last week, and the basis was +39 yuan/ton [37][43]. Futures Inter - monthly Spread - The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed oil was +361 yuan/ton, at a medium level in recent years. The 1 - 5 spread of rapeseed meal was +125 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in recent years [51]. Futures - Spot Ratio - The ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal for the 01 contract was 3.89, and the average spot price ratio was 3.94 [55]. Spread between Rapeseed Oil and Other Oils/Meals - The 01 contract spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1,535 yuan/ton, and the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 561 yuan/ton, both expanding this week. The 01 contract spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 548 yuan/ton, and the spot spread was 400 yuan/ton as of Thursday [64][70]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation Rapeseed - Supply: As of September 5, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory in refineries was 100,000 tons. The estimated rapeseed arrivals in September, October, and November 2025 were 195,000 tons, 130,000 tons, and 450,000 tons respectively. The spot crushing profit of imported rapeseed was +1,203 yuan/ton as of September 11. The rapeseed crushing volume in coastal refineries in the 36th week of 2025 was 49,000 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons from last week, with an operation rate of 11.99%. In July 2025, China's rapeseed imports were 176,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 56.63% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.85 tons [76][80][84][88]. Rapeseed Oil - Supply: As of the end of the 36th week of 2025, the domestic imported and crushed rapeseed oil inventory was 708,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.01%. In July 2025, rapeseed oil imports were 133,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.86% and a month - on - month decrease of 16,700 tons [93]. - Demand: As of June 30, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 476,900 tons. As of July 31, 2025, the monthly catering revenue was 450.41 billion yuan. As of the end of the 36th week of 2025, the domestic imported and crushed rapeseed oil contract volume was 77,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 44.65% [97][101]. Rapeseed Meal - Supply: As of the end of the 36th week of 2025, the domestic imported and crushed rapeseed meal inventory was 19,000 tons, remaining flat compared with last week. In July 2025, rapeseed meal imports were 183,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.00% and a month - on - month decrease of 87,200 tons [105][109]. - Demand: As of July 31, 2025, the monthly output of feed was 2,827,300 tons [113]. 3.4. Options Market Analysis - As of September 12, this week, rapeseed meal closed lower, and the corresponding option implied volatility was 21.39%, a decrease of 0.14% compared with the previous week, at a slightly high level compared with the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying [117].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Views of the Report - The terminal demand for rebar is sluggish, and the futures price is oscillating weakly. The RB2601 contract may fluctuate within the range of 3080 - 3160. It is recommended to buy out - of - the - money call options when the opportunity arises [2][9][60] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - on - Week Summary Market Review - As of September 12, the closing price of the rebar main contract was 3127 yuan/ton (-16), and the spot price of Hangzhou Zhongtian rebar was 3250 yuan/ton (-10). Rebar production continued to decline to 211.93 million tons (-6.75), with a year - on - year increase of 24.01 million tons. Apparent demand decreased again to 18.07 million tons (-4), a year - on - year decrease of 51.85 million tons. Total rebar inventory was 653.86 million tons (+13.86), with a year - on - year increase of 160.23 million tons. The steel mill profitability rate was 60.17%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 54.11 percentage points [7] Market Outlook - **Macro aspect**: Overseas, the US non - farm payrolls in August increased by only 22,000, far less than the expected 75,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. Mexico plans to raise import tariffs on about 1400 items from countries without free - trade agreements. Domestically, multiple ministries and commissions will promote capacity management in key industries and implement policies to support employment and foreign trade. - **Supply - demand aspect**: Rebar weekly production continued to decline, capacity utilization was 46.46%, and the EAF steel operating rate declined again. Terminal demand was weak, inventory increased for seven consecutive weeks, and apparent demand decreased. - **Cost aspect**: Iron ore was firm due to lower shipments and a significant increase in hot metal. Coke spot prices were lowered, but coking coal futures prices were oscillating strongly. - **Technical aspect**: The RB2601 contract oscillated downward, with a bearish arrangement of daily K - line moving averages. The MACD indicator showed that DIFF and DEA were below the 0 - axis, and the green bars slightly shrank. - **Strategy suggestion**: Considering the macro and industrial aspects, the RB2601 contract may fluctuate within the 3080 - 3160 range. Pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control [9] 2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Price - This week, the RB2601 contract oscillated weakly. The RB2510 contract was weaker than the RB2601 contract, and the spread on the 12th was -92 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3 yuan/ton [15] Warehouse Receipts and Positions - On September 12, the Shanghai Futures Exchange rebar warehouse receipt volume was 252,249 tons, a week - on - week increase of 21,518 tons. The net short position of the top 20 holders of rebar futures contracts was 222,524 lots, an increase of 38,709 lots from the previous week [22] Spot Price and Basis - On September 12, the spot price of Hangzhou's Grade III rebar was 3250 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the national average price was 3269 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton. This week, the spot price was stronger than the futures price, and the basis on the 12th was 123 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 6 yuan/ton [28] 3. Upstream Market Furnace Charge Prices - This week, the spot price of iron ore increased, while the spot price of coke decreased. On September 12, the price of 61% Australian MacPhearson ore at Qingdao Port was 848 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 11 yuan/dry ton. The spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1620 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton [33] Iron Ore Arrival and Inventory - From September 1st to 7th, the total arrival volume of 47 ports in China decreased. The total inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports increased by 304,000 tons week - on - week to 14,456,120 tons, and the daily average port clearance volume increased by 140,600 tons [37] Coking Plant Conditions - This week, the capacity utilization rate of coking plants increased, and coke inventory increased. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 75.58%, an increase of 2.97%. Coke daily output was 533,000 tons, an increase of 20,900 tons [41] 4. Industry Situation Supply Side - In July 2025, the national crude steel output was 79.66 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0%. From January to July, the cumulative crude steel output was 594.47 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1%. In August, steel exports decreased, and imports increased [45] - Rebar weekly production decreased. On September 11, the weekly production of 139 building material production enterprises was 21.193 million tons, a decrease of 675,000 tons from the previous week [48] - The EAF steel operating rate decreased. On September 12, the average operating rate of 90 independent EAF steel mills was 71.92%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.29 percentage points [51] - Rebar total inventory increased. On September 11, the in - plant inventory of 137 building material production enterprises was 1.6663 million tons, a decrease of 47,100 tons from the previous week, and the social inventory of 35 cities was 4.8723 million tons, an increase of 185,700 tons from the previous week [54] Demand Side - From January to July 2025, the new housing start - up area decreased by 19.4% year - on - year, and infrastructure investment increased by 3.2% year - on - year [57] 5. Options Market - Currently, the steel market is relatively weak, but as building materials enter the peak season, downstream may have restocking demand. It is recommended to buy out - of - the - money call options when the opportunity arises [60]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Macroscopically, the situation is volatile with alternating bullish and bearish factors. In the short - term, the market is mainly priced by the industry. Coke is facing a second round of price cuts, and the futures price will mainly show a volatile trend. The coke main contract should be treated as a volatile operation [8]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Macro Aspect**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and five other departments jointly launched a special rectification campaign for network chaos in the automotive industry. China's August PPI decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month [8]. - **Overseas Aspect**: Traders fully priced in three interest rate cuts by the Fed before the end of 2025. The US may pressure the G7 to raise tariffs on India and China for buying Russian oil. The US Supreme Court will hear Trump's tariff appeal case in early November [8]. - **Supply - Demand Aspect**: The current iron - water output is 240.55 tons, an increase of 11.71 tons. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 35 yuan/ton [8]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the coke main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish weekly trend [8]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The coke main contract should be treated as a volatile operation [8]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of September 12, the position of coke futures contracts was 53,200 lots, a net increase of 983 lots. The 5 - 1 contract spread was 137.0, a net increase of 28.0 points. The registered warehouse receipt volume was 1,520 lots, a net increase of 310 lots. The screw - coke ratio of the futures main contract was 1.92, a net increase of 0.01 points [12][18]. - **Spot Market**: As of September 11, 2025, the coke flat - price at Rizhao Port was 1,480 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The ex - factory price of coking coal at the Ganqimao Port in Mongolia was 1,140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. As of September 12, the coke basis was - 150.0 yuan, a decrease of 98.5 points [26]. 3. Industrial Chain Situation - **Coking Plant**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide was 35 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises was 75.58%, an increase of 2.97%. The daily coke output was 53.30 tons, an increase of 2.09 tons. The coke inventory was 43.91 tons, an increase of 3.2 tons. The total coking coal inventory was 752.00 tons, a decrease of 28.95 tons. The available days of coking coal were 10.6 days, a decrease of 0.86 days [32]. - **Downstream**: The daily average iron - water output of 247 steel mills was 240.55 tons, an increase of 11.71 tons compared to last week. As of September 5, 2025, the total coke inventory was 860.55 tons, an increase of 6.40 tons [36]. - **Inventory Structure**: The inventory at 18 ports decreased by 2.45 tons. The coke inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 9.58 tons [40]. - **Export Situation**: In July, China exported 890,000 tons of coke and semi - coke, a year - on - year increase of 15.58%. From January to July, the cumulative export was 4.4 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.9%. In August 2025, China exported 9.51 million tons of steel, a month - on - month decrease of 3.3%. From January to August, the cumulative steel export was 77.49 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.0% [44]. - **Real Estate Data**: In July 2025, the price index of second - hand residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 0.50% month - on - month. As of the week of September 7, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - medium cities was 1.346 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 27.19% [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2350 - 2410 in the short term [7] - Recently, the output of resumed methanol production capacity in China exceeded the loss of capacity due to maintenance and production cuts, leading to a slight increase in overall production. Before the National Day holiday, mid - and downstream inventory restocking began, and some olefin enterprises in Inner Mongolia increased their external procurement, resulting in a decline in inland enterprise inventory levels this week. Port inventory continued to accumulate significantly. Next week, the arrival of foreign vessels is expected to remain stable, and port inventory is likely to continue to accumulate. The demand side saw a decline in the methanol - to - olefin operating rate due to the shutdown of the Qinghai Salt Lake olefin plant, but it is expected to rise after hedging [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2350 - 2410 in the short term [7] - Market review: This week, the domestic port methanol market was strong, and the inland market prices rose. The low inventory of enterprises and increased external procurement of olefins led to low available circulation of goods, and downstream and traders actively followed up due to the buying - on - rising mentality [8] - Market outlook: The overall methanol production increased slightly. Inland enterprise inventory decreased, while port inventory continued to accumulate significantly. Next week, port inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, and the olefin operating rate is expected to rise [8] 3.2 Futures Market - Futures price: This week, the price of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract fluctuated and closed down, with a weekly decline of 1.49% [12] - Inter - period spread: As of September 12, the MA 1 - 5 spread was - 6 [16] - Position analysis: No specific content provided - Warehouse receipts: As of September 11, there were 14,979 Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts, an increase of 4,943 from last week [23] 3.3 Spot Market - Domestic spot price: As of September 11, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang was 2,292 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.5 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia was 2,122.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 55 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East and Northwest China was 170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 42.5 yuan/ton from last week [27] - Foreign spot price: As of September 11, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port was 263 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port was 63 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [33] - Basis: As of September 11, the Zhengzhou methanol basis was - 94.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 40.5 yuan/ton from last week [37] 3.4 Industrial Chain - Upstream: As of September 10, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 675 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of September 11, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 2.92 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.11 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [41] - Industry: As of September 11, China's methanol production was 1,919,265 tons, a decrease of 43,550 tons from last week, and the plant capacity utilization rate was 84.58%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.37%. As of September 10, the total port inventory was 1.5503 million tons, an increase of 122,600 tons from the previous period; the inventory of sample production enterprises was 342,600 tons, a decrease of 0.45 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 1.31%; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 250,700 tons, an increase of 9,400 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 3.91%. In July 2025, China's methanol imports were 1.1027 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.63%; from January to July 2025, the cumulative imports were 6.48 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.66%. As of September 11, the methanol import profit was 15.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.22 yuan/ton from last week [44][49][52] - Downstream: As of September 11, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 82.66%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.16%. As of September 12, the domestic methanol - to - olefin spot profit was - 1,024 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton from last week [55][58]