1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the futures price of the Container Freight Index (European Line) rose slightly. The main contract EC2602 closed up 1.75%, and the far - month contracts rose between 1 - 2%. The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight index was 1510.56, up 1.46 points from last week, a 0.1% increase. The Christmas stocking demand is beneficial for the futures price to rise, but the price increase announcements failed to materialize, and leading shipping companies have successively lowered the container prices, causing the previous price increase to be reversed. The traditional peak - season boost effect may be weaker than expected due to high tax rates on exports to the US. The freight market is highly influenced by news, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate more violently. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, shipping capacity and cargo volume data in a timely manner [6][7][39] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Market Review - Futures contracts: EC2512 fell 1.28% (- 21.20), closing at 1630.10; EC2602 rose 1.75% (29.60), closing at 1719.80; EC2604 rose 0.71% (8.00), closing at 1128.80; EC2606 rose 2.16% (27.20), closing at 1288.30; EC2608 rose 1.59% (22.70), closing at 1453.20; EC2610 rose 1.63% (16.80), closing at 1050.30. The SCFIS index rose 0.1% (1.46), closing at 1510.56. The trading volume and open interest of the EC2512 contract showed a divergence this week [9][10][15] 3.2. News Review and Analysis - China's re - implementation of export license management for steel after 16 years aims to strengthen monitoring, statistics and analysis of steel product exports and track product quality. The EU's FSR investigations on Chinese enterprises are opposed by China. The full - scale customs closure of Hainan Free Trade Port on December 18 expanded the "zero - tariff" commodity scope to over 6600 tariff items. The EU Commission proposed to relax the 2035 "ban on fuel - powered vehicles" requirement to a 90% emission reduction. The European Central Bank maintained the benchmark interest rate at 2% for the fourth consecutive time. The Fed's Williams said that the US unemployment rate is expected to drop to 4.5% by the end of 2025, and inflation is expected to rise to 2.5% in 2026 and fall to 2% in 2027 [18] 3.3. Weekly Market Data - The basis and spread of the Container Freight Index (European Line) futures contracts both contracted this week. The export container freight index rebounded slightly. Global container shipping capacity continued to grow, while European - line shipping capacity decreased slightly. The BDI and BPI declined, and freight rates fluctuated slightly. The charter price of Panamax ships continued to rise, and the spread between the offshore and on - shore RMB against the US dollar converged [24][27][31] 3.4. Market Outlook and Strategy - The same as the core viewpoints, the Christmas stocking demand is beneficial for the futures price to rise, but the price increase announcements failed to materialize, and the traditional peak - season boost effect may be weaker than expected. The freight market is highly influenced by news, and investors are advised to be cautious and track relevant data [39][40]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the fundamentals of the natural rubber market resonated with commodity linkages, causing rubber prices to surge multiple times. The asking price center of the imported rubber market moved upwards. Traders mainly rotated and exchanged positions, with arbitrageurs actively closing positions and selling, while some added positions to buy. Factories remained cautiously on the sidelines. The spot price center of domestic natural rubber also moved upwards. The fluctuating and rising futures market boosted market trading sentiment, and holders adjusted their asking prices upwards. Downstream inquiry sentiment slightly improved, with cautious purchases based on rigid demand [7]. - In the domestic Yunnan production area, the rubber tapping season has ended, and the raw material purchase price has remained basically stable. In the Hainan production area, with the arrival of winter, the number of times local rubber farmers tap rubber has decreased, and the dry content of latex has continued to decline. The amount of rubber that can be collected on the island has significantly decreased, and some private processing plants have stopped purchasing latex, with their production lines gradually entering a shutdown state. Recently, the total inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to accumulate, with both bonded warehouses and general trade warehouses showing inventory accumulation, and the total inventory accumulation rate has increased compared to the previous period. The arrival of overseas standard rubber at the port has shown an increasing trend, while the arrival of mixed rubber has slightly decreased. Downstream tire factories have been cautious in replenishing their stocks, with most purchasing sentiment being wait - and - see. The overall outbound volume has been small. In terms of demand, tire enterprises have flexibly arranged production this week, with some enterprises controlling production. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has been running weakly, entering the seasonal off - season. The overall shipment rhythm of enterprises has been slow, and the finished product inventory has increased. Under the pressure of production and sales, some enterprises have limited or stopped production [7]. - The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,000 - 15,650 in the short term, and the nr2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,200 - 12,650 in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The fundamentals of the natural rubber market resonated with commodity linkages, and rubber prices surged multiple times. The asking price center of imported rubber and domestic natural rubber spot prices both moved upwards [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Yunnan has stopped tapping, and Hainan's rubber - tapping volume has decreased. Qingdao Port's inventory has continued to accumulate. Overseas standard rubber arrivals have increased, and downstream tire factories have been cautious in restocking. Tire enterprises have flexibly arranged production, with some controlling production, and are in the seasonal off - season [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15,000 - 15,650, and the nr2602 contract between 12,200 - 12,650 in the short term [7] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - **Price Trends**: This week, the main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures fluctuated and closed down, with a weekly decline of 0.26%. The main contract price of 20 - number rubber fluctuated and closed up, with a weekly increase of 0.24% [10]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of December 19, the Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 87,160 tons, an increase of 30,170 tons from the previous week. The 20 - number rubber warehouse receipts were 58,968 tons, a decrease of 605 tons from the previous week [25]. - **Spreads**: As of December 19, the spread between the Shanghai rubber 5 - 9 contracts was 20, and the spread between the 20 - number rubber 2 - 3 contracts was - 25 [20]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Price**: As of December 18, the state - owned full - latex was reported at 15,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton from the previous week [29]. - **20 - number Rubber Basis and Non - standard Basis**: As of December 18, the 20 - number rubber basis was 536 yuan/ton, a decrease of 158 yuan/ton from the previous week. The non - standard basis was - 770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan/ton from the previous week [35] 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Upstream - **Thailand's Raw Material Prices and Processing Profits**: As of December 19, the field latex in Thailand's natural rubber raw material market was 56 (+0.75) Thai baht/kg, and the cup lump was 50.75 (+1.3) Thai baht/kg. The standard rubber's theoretical processing profit was 2.4 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 48.6 US dollars/ton from the previous week [39]. - **Domestic Production Area Raw Material Prices**: As of December 18, the price of fresh latex in Hainan was 13,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton from the previous week. The Yunnan production area was in the off - season [42]. 3.3.2 Imports - In October 2025, China's natural rubber imports (including technical classification, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) were 510,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.27% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.9%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 5.2281 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 17.27% [45]. 3.3.3 Qingdao Inventory - As of December 14, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 498,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,200 tons, an increase of 2.08%. The bonded area inventory was 77,500 tons, an increase of 4.88%. The general trade inventory was 421,400 tons, an increase of 1.58% [48]. 3.3.4 Downstream - **Tire Capacity Utilization**: As of December 18, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.01%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.13 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.67 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.61%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.94 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.72 percentage points [51]. - **Tire Exports**: In October 2025 China's tire exports were 653,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5050 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 6.79%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative tire exports were 7.0438 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.68% [54]. - **Domestic Heavy - truck Sales**: In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% and a year - on - year increase of about 46%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [57]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.19」 国债期货周报 经济内生动能偏弱，期债阶段性修复 研究员 廖宏斌 期货从业资格号 F30825507 期货投资咨询从业证号 Z0020723 关 注 我 们 获取更多资讯 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息回顾与分析 3、图表分析 4、行情展望与策略 周度要点总结 政策及监管：1、国家发改委投资司指出，2025年以来投资下行压力加大，接下来要从畅通供需循环、投融资循环等方面采取针对性措施，着力 扩大有效投资。要扩大新兴产业有效投资，保持合理政府投资力度，研究调整地方政府专项债券项目"自审自发"试点范围；2、商务部会同财 政部召开"三新"试点工作部署推进会。会议强调，各试点城市要进一步完善实施方案，建立健全工作推进和保障机制，抓紧出台试点资金 （项目）管理办法，紧扣"三新"试点支持方向，精心筛选支持项目，强化项目动态管理；3、市场监管总局强调，要加力推进全国统一大市场 建设，强化公平竞争治理，推动经济循环畅通。要综合整治"内卷式"竞争，推动形成优质优价、良性竞争的市场秩序。 基本面：1、国内:1）11月份，社会消费品零售总额43898亿元，同比增长1.3%；规模以上工业增加值同 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Red Date Market Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: December 19, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Wang Cuibing [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the main contract of Zhengzhou red dates futures fell by about 0.34%. The Xinjiang procurement is nearing completion, and the follow - up market trend depends on the peak - season consumption performance. If the terminal demand is released as expected, the inventory clearance speed may accelerate and support the market to stabilize; otherwise, the inventory pressure may increase. With short - term supply being loose and demand showing no obvious improvement, the red date price is expected to remain weak [9][10] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Future trading tips include monitoring spot prices and the consumer side - The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou red dates futures fell by about 0.34% this week - As of December 18, 2025, the physical inventory of 36 sample points of red dates was 16,108 tons, an increase of 318 tons from last week, a 2.01% week - on - week increase and a 34.68% year - on - year increase [9] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures price**: The price of the Zhengzhou red dates 2605 contract fell by about 0.34% this week [10] - **Top 20 futures positions**: As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in red dates futures was - 10,420 lots [14] - **Futures warehouse receipts**: As of this week, the number of Zhengzhou red dates warehouse receipts was 1,092 [18] - **Futures price spread**: As of this week, the price spread between the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange red dates 2605 contract and the 2609 contract was - 310 yuan/ton [21] - **Basis**: As of this week, the basis between the Hebei gray date spot price and the main contract of red dates futures was 735 yuan/ton [24] - **Procurement price in the main production area**: As of December 19, 2025, the unified purchase price of red dates in Aksu was 5.15 yuan/kg, in Alar was 5.65 yuan/kg, and in Kashgar was 6.5 yuan/kg [27] - **First - grade red date spot price**: As of December 19, 2025, the wholesale price of first - grade gray dates in Cangzhou, Hebei was 4.35 yuan/jin, and in Henan was 4.45 yuan/jin [31] - **Super - grade red date spot price**: As of December 19, 2025, the spot price of super - grade gray dates in Cangzhou, Hebei was 9.63 yuan/kg, and the wholesale price in Henan was 9.9 yuan/kg [35] 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply side - Inventory**: As of December 18, 2025, the physical inventory of 36 sample points of red dates was 16,108 tons, an increase of 318 tons from last week, a 2.01% week - on - week increase and a 34.68% year - on - year increase [40] - **Supply side - Production decline**: The red date production in the 2025/26 season is expected to decline [44] - **Demand side - Export**: In October 2025, China's red date export volume was 2,205,220 kg, the export value was 35,238,139 yuan, and the export average price was 15,979.42 yuan/ton. The export volume decreased by 3.44% month - on - month and 33.29% year - on - year. From January to October 2025, the cumulative export volume was 25,753,622 kg, a 0.18% year - on - year increase [48] - **Demand side - BOCE trading**: This week, the BOCE Xinjiang red date "Good Brand" had a small amount of trading in orders [53] 3.4 Options Market and Futures - Stock Correlation - **Options market**: The implied volatility of at - the - money options for red dates this week is presented in the report, but specific data is not summarized [54] - **Stock market - Haoxiangni**: The report shows the price - earnings ratio chart of Haoxiangni, but no specific data is summarized [56]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.19」 铁矿石市场周报 现货报价坚挺 铁矿期价止跌反弹 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 研究员：蔡跃辉 添加客服 业务咨询 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 价格：截至12月19日收盘，铁矿主力合约期价为780（+19.5）元/吨，青岛港麦克粉845（+14）元/干吨。 2. 发运：全球铁矿石发运总量环比+224万吨。2025年12月8日-12月14日Mysteel全球铁矿石发运总量3592.5万吨，环比增加224.0 万吨。澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量2965.5万吨，环比增加310.2万吨。 3. 到港：本期47港到港量+358.9万吨。2025年12月08日-12月14日中国47港到港总量2928.1万吨，环比增加358.9万吨；中国45港 到港总量2723.4万吨，环比增加242.9万吨；北方六港到港总量1358.5万吨，环比增加79.8万吨。 4. 需求：铁水产量-2.65万吨。日均铁水产量 226.55万吨，环比上周减少2.65万吨，同比去年减少2.86万吨。 5. 库存：港口库存+114.06 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A - share major indices generally declined this week, with all but the Shanghai Composite Index falling to varying degrees. The performance of the four stock - index futures was differentiated. The domestic economic data in November continued to be weak, and the US employment and inflation data in November showed a slowdown, but the market's confidence in the data was affected by the government shutdown, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation only slightly increased. The market trading activity declined compared with last week [8]. - In November, the external demand in the fundamentals improved slightly, but the endogenous economic momentum still needs to be boosted. The Central Economic Work Conference and the Political Bureau Meeting in December set a positive tone. Next year, fiscal and monetary policies will continue to be loose, but the market still has differences on the implementation rhythm of reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts. In the short term, the market lacks incremental information, and the interest rate may continue to fluctuate [8]. - The real - estate sector dragged down the overall fixed - asset investment. The growth rate of infrastructure and manufacturing investment decreased slightly, and the real - estate sector remained at a low level. The production declined, and the differentiation between upstream and downstream enterprises became more serious. The policy of expanding domestic demand is expected to be continuously strengthened, which is expected to drive the growth of the consumer market [12]. Summary by Related Catalogs This Week's Summary and Next Week's Allocation Suggestions Stocks - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index fell by 0.28%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Stock - Index Futures fell by 0.10%. A - share major indices generally declined, and the four stock - index futures showed differentiated performance. The domestic economic data in November was weak, and the US employment and inflation data in November had credibility issues due to the government shutdown. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation only slightly increased, and the market trading activity declined. Allocation suggestion: Buy on dips [8]. Bonds - The 10 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.04%, with a weekly change of - 0.07BP, and the main 10 - year Treasury bond futures rose by 0.14%. In November, the external demand improved slightly, but the endogenous economic momentum still needs to be boosted. The policies in December were positive, and the expectation of loose monetary policy increased, but there were differences in the market regarding the implementation rhythm of reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts. In the short term, the interest rate may continue to fluctuate. Allocation suggestion: Range trading [8]. Commodities - The Wind Commodity Index rose by 1.50%, and the China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index rose by 0.43%. With the strengthening of crude oil and gold, the commodity index is expected to further strengthen. Attention should be paid to the US CPI and PCE data released on Friday. Allocation suggestion: Wait - and - see [8]. Foreign Exchange - The euro - US dollar exchange rate fell by 0.12%, and the euro - US dollar 2603 contract fell by 0.19%. The weak non - farm payrolls report, lower - than - expected CPI inflation data, and the dovish stance of FOMC officials support the Fed's loose policy path. The Fed's restart of interest - rate cuts will suppress the US dollar index. The Bank of Japan's tendency to turn hawkish and the European Central Bank's wait - and - see attitude will support the euro and the yen in the short term. Allocation suggestion: Cautious wait - and - see [8]. Important News and Events - **Domestic News**: The central government emphasized expanding domestic demand, stabilizing the real - estate market, and implementing a moderately loose monetary policy next year. It will also focus on preventing and resolving financial risks [14]. - **International News**: The Fed's Williams said the current policy stance was appropriate; Trump's new policy may weaken US AI regulation; multiple Fed officials expressed their views on inflation and interest - rate cuts; Europe proposed to form a "multinational force" to support Ukraine [16]. This Week's Domestic and International Economic Data - **China**: From January to November, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 2.6% year - on - year, with real - estate investment falling by 15.9%. In November, the social consumer goods retail sales increased by 1.3% year - on - year and decreased by 0.42% month - on - month [12]. - **US**: In November, the unemployment rate was 4.6%, the non - farm payrolls increased by 64,000, and the CPI increased by 2.7% year - on - year [11][17]. - **EU**: The eurozone's industrial output in October increased by 0.8% month - on - month, and the December manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 49.2 [17]. - **UK**: The November unemployment rate was 4.39%, the December manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 51.2, and the central bank interest rate was cut to 3.75% [17]. Next Week's Important Economic Indicators and Economic Events - On December 22, 2025, China's one - year loan prime rate and the UK's Q3 GDP annual growth rate final value will be released. - On December 24, 2025, the US initial jobless claims for the week ending December 20 will be released. - On December 25, 2025, Japan's November unemployment rate will be released [78].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1670 - 1730 in the short - term [7]. - The urea market first declined and then rebounded slightly this week. After India's new urea tender, the futures price rose, and the spot market sentiment was boosted [8]. - New device overhauls led to a slight decrease in domestic urea production this week. Production is expected to increase slightly next week. Agricultural demand is in the off - season, and the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate may decline steadily [8]. - Domestic urea enterprise inventories continued to decline this week, and there is a possibility of further destocking in the short term [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - Strategy: The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1670 - 1730 in the short - term [7]. - Market review: The urea market first declined and then rebounded slightly. The average price in Shandong increased by 5 yuan/ton week - on - week. After India's tender, the futures price rose, and the spot market improved [8]. - Market outlook: Production may increase slightly next week. Agricultural demand is in the off - season, and the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate may decline. Enterprise inventories may continue to decline [8]. 3.2 Futures Market - Price trend: The main contract price of Zhengzhou urea futures rose by 0.83% this week [11]. - Inter - delivery spread: As of December 19, the UR 5 - 9 spread was 19 [14]. - Open interest analysis: There is no specific analysis content in the provided text. - Warehouse receipts: As of December 19, there were 10976 urea warehouse receipts in Zhengzhou, a decrease of 320 from last week [22]. 3.3 Spot Market - Domestic price: As of December 18, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1710 yuan/ton (unchanged), and in Jiangsu was 1700 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton) [28]. - Overseas price: As of December 18, the FOB price of urea in China was 387.5 dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 dollars/ton from last week [32]. - Basis: As of December 18, the urea basis was 2 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton from last week [36]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - Coal price: As of December 17, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from last week [39]. - Natural gas price: As of December 18, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.95 dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.16 dollars/million British thermal units from last week [39]. 3.5 Industry Situation - Capacity utilization and production: As of December 18, China's urea production was 136.59 tons, a decrease of 1.95 tons from the previous period, a 1.41% week - on - week decrease. The capacity utilization rate was 80.69%, a 1.16% decrease from the previous period [42]. - Inventory: As of December 18, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 13.8 tons, a 12.20% increase from the previous period. As of December 17, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 117.97 tons, a 4.42% decrease from last week [45]. - Export: In October 2025, urea exports were 120.25 tons, a 12.30% decrease from the previous month, and the average export price was 432.05 dollars/ton, a 10.83% decrease from the previous month [48]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - Compound fertilizer: As of December 18, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 39.37%, a decrease of 1.25 percentage points from the previous period [51]. - Melamine: As of December 18, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 58.55%, a decrease of 3.31 percentage points from last week [51].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the price of the Apple Futures 2605 contract declined, with a weekly drop of approximately 3.36%. The trading atmosphere in the late Fuji apple production areas remained weak, and the enthusiasm of merchants for purchasing fruit from farmers decreased. High - quality apples maintained firm prices, while the prices of medium - and low - quality apples showed signs of weakness. As of December 18, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main production areas was 752.98 million tons, a decrease of 5.57 million tons from the previous week. The sales in the consumer market were still sluggish, and the increasing supply of tangerines and other citrus fruits impacted apple sales. With the weak demand for the upcoming festivals, there is a possibility of a further short - term price drop [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - The price of the Apple Futures 2605 contract fell this week, with a weekly decline of about 3.36%. The trading of apples in production areas was lackluster, and the prices of medium - and low - quality apples were under pressure. The inventory in cold - storage decreased slightly. The sales in the consumer market were poor, affected by substitute fruits, and the festival - related purchasing demand was weak, suggesting a potential short - term price cut [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: The price of the Apple Futures 2605 contract dropped by about 3.36% this week. As of the end of the week, the net position of the top 20 futures holders was 6913 lots, and the number of futures warehouse receipts was 0 [11][17]. - **Spot Market**: As of December 19, 2025, the mainstream price of bagged Red Fuji apples (80 and above, first - and second - grade) from fruit farmers in Qixia, Shandong was 4.0 yuan per catty, and the price of bagged Fuji apples (75 and above) in Yiyuan, Shandong was 2.60 yuan per catty [20]. 3.3 Industry Situation and Options - **Supply**: As of December 18, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main production areas was 752.98 million tons, a decrease of 5.57 million tons from the previous week. The storage capacity ratios in Shandong and Shaanxi decreased by 0.32% and 0.44% respectively [27]. - **Demand**: - The average daily number of trucks arriving at major apple wholesale markets in Guangdong increased as of December 18. The profit of 80 first - and second - grade apple storage merchants was 0. - As of December 12, 2025, the average wholesale price of all apple varieties was 9.37 yuan per kilogram, unchanged from the previous week, and the wholesale price of Fuji apples was 9.13 yuan per kilogram, an increase of 0.06 yuan per kilogram from the previous week. - As of December 12, 2025, the weekly average wholesale price of 5 types of fruits (including Fuji apples, bananas, grapes, pears, and watermelons) was 7.44 yuan per kilogram, an increase of 0.13 yuan per kilogram from the previous week. - According to customs data, in October 2025, China's apple export volume was 80,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.29%, and the export value was 77.912 million US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 12.62% [29][34][38][42]. - **Options**: The implied volatility of at - the - money apple options was presented in the report, but no specific data was provided [43]. 3.4 Futures - Stock Correlation - The report presented the price - to - earnings ratio of Honghui Fruit & Vegetable Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis was provided [45].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.19」 碳酸锂市场周报 需求稳定库存持降，锂价或将有所支撑 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 业务咨询 添加客服 研究员:陈思嘉 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4 110000 120000 碳酸锂主力合约收盘价及持仓量 800000 来源：ifind 瑞达期货研究院 来源：ifind 瑞达期货研究院 截至2025年12月19日，碳酸锂近远月跨期价差为-1680元/吨，周环比增加220元/吨。 截至2025年12月19日，碳酸锂主力合约收盘价111400元/吨，周环比增加13680元/吨。 图1、碳酸锂主力合约收盘及持仓量 图2、碳酸锂跨期套利 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：碳酸锂主力周线震荡偏强，涨跌幅为+14%，振幅16.58%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价111400元/吨。 后市展望：宏观方面，"十五五"开局之年，适度宽松的货币政策要努力推动实现经济增长、物价回升，这首先要求 明年金融总量保持合理增长，充分满足实体经济融资需求。市场机构普遍预计明年降准、降息分别有0 ...

Report Summary 1. Strategy Suggestion - The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2100 - 2190 in the short term [7] 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the port methanol market strengthened, while the inland market was weak. The overall methanol production increased as the output from restored capacity exceeded the loss from maintenance and reduction. Inland supply was abundant, and enterprise inventory increased. Port inventory showed a narrow decline overall, with different trends in East and South China. The MTO industry's weekly average operation rate decreased, but it is expected to increase slightly in the short term [8] 3. Section Summaries 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Condition**: The port methanol market strengthened, with prices in Jiangsu ranging from 2070 - 2190 yuan/ton and in Guangdong from 2050 - 2130 yuan/ton. Inland prices were weak, with Ordos' price ranging from 1950 - 1973 yuan/ton and Dongying's receiving price from 2225 - 2230 yuan/ton [8] - **Market Outlook**: Domestic methanol production increased. Inland supply was sufficient, and enterprise inventory increased. Port inventory decreased slightly overall. The MTO industry's operation rate is expected to increase slightly in the short term [8] 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Trend**: The price of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract oscillated and closed higher, with a weekly increase of 2.33% [12] - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of December 19, the MA 5 - 9 spread was 26 [16] - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of December 18, there were 6789 Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts, a decrease of 1834 from last week [23] 3.3 Spot Market - **Domestic Prices**: As of December 18, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang was 2167.5 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton from last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia was 1925 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton from last week. The price difference between East and Northwest China was 242.5 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton from last week [29] - **Foreign Prices**: As of December 18, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port was 251 dollars/ton, up 6 dollars/ton from last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port was 67 dollars/ton, down 5 dollars/ton from last week [34] - **Basis**: As of December 18, the Zhengzhou methanol basis was - 6.5 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton from last week [37] 3.4 Industry Chain - **Upstream**: As of December 17, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 700 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from last week. As of December 18, the NYMEX natural gas closed at 3.95 dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.16 dollars/million British thermal units from last week [42] - **Industry**: As of December 18, China's methanol production was 2055975 tons, an increase of 18370 tons from last week, and the capacity utilization rate was 90.52%, a week - on - week increase of 0.90%. As of December 17, the inventory of sample production enterprises was 39.11 million tons, an increase of 3.83 million tons from the previous period, and the order backlog was 22.04 million tons, an increase of 1.30 million tons from the previous period. The total port inventory was 121.88 million tons, a decrease of 1.56 million tons from the previous period. In October 2025, China's methanol imports were 161.26 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.01%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative imports were 1127.93 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.10%. As of December 18, the import profit was 5.45 yuan/ton, an increase of 20.7 yuan/ton from last week [47][50][54] - **Downstream**: As of December 18, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 89.49%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.71%. As of December 19, the domestic methanol - to - olefins spot profit was - 1031 yuan/ton, a decrease of 198 yuan/ton from last week [57][60]