国债期货日报 2025/12/22 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 项目 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | T主力收盘价 | 107.980 | -0.09% T主力成交量 | 85093 | 29051↑ | | | TF主力收盘价 | 105.860 | -0.06% TF主力成交量 | 64185 | 8687↑ | | | TS主力收盘价 | 102.464 | -0.02% TS主力成交量 | 35943 | 3341↑ | | | TL主力收盘价 | 111.980 | -0.28% TL主力成交量 | 113123 | 9517↑ | | 期货价差 | TL2603-2606价差 | -0.22 | -0.04↓ T03-TL03价差 | -4.00 | 0.51↑ | | | T2603-2606价差 | -0.02 | +0.00↑ TF03-T03价差 | -2.12 | 0.06↑ | | | TF2603-2606价差 | 0.00 | -0.00↓ TS03-T03价差 | -5.52 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Near - month imports of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal are restricted, and oil mills are shut down, but with Australian rapeseed arriving and potential Canadian imports, supply is expected to increase. Also, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens demand. The rapeseed meal price has maintained a narrow - range fluctuation recently. Attention should be paid to China's soybean purchases from the US [2]. - The rapeseed oil market has a structurally tight supply currently, with oil mills shut down and inventory decreasing, which supports the price. However, with Australian rapeseed arriving and potential improvement in China - Canada trade relations, future supply pressure will increase. The abundant supply and good substitution of soybean oil keep rapeseed oil demand at a basic level. Affected by the rise of palm oil, rapeseed oil has rebounded slightly, and the short - term downward trend may slow down [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil is 8864 yuan/ton (up 120), rapeseed meal is 2337 yuan/ton (up 14), ICE rapeseed is 594.5 CAD/ton (down 5.6), and domestic rapeseed is 5481 yuan/ton (up 33) [2]. - Month - to - month spreads: Rapeseed oil (5 - 9) is - 4 yuan/ton (down 2), rapeseed meal (5 - 9) is - 56 yuan/ton (up 3) [2]. - Main contract positions: Rapeseed oil is 200067 lots (down 8112), rapeseed meal is 604362 lots (up 5874) [2]. - Net long positions of the top 20 futures holders: Rapeseed oil is - 28709 lots (down 1210), rapeseed meal is - 57003 lots (up 17456) [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantities: Rapeseed oil is 3876 sheets (down 50), rapeseed meal is 0 sheets [2]. Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9270 yuan/ton (down 230), rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2420 yuan/ton (up 40) [2]. - Average prices: Rapeseed oil is 9388.75 yuan/ton (down 230), the import cost of rapeseed is 7294.69 yuan/ton (down 83.67) [2]. - Basis: Rapeseed oil main - contract basis is 526 yuan/ton (down 29), rapeseed meal main - contract basis is 83 yuan/ton (up 26) [2]. - Substitute prices: Fourth - grade soybean oil in Nanjing is 8310 yuan/ton (up 80), 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 8270 yuan/ton (up 20), soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3100 yuan/ton [2]. - Price differences: Rapeseed - soybean oil is 1040 yuan/ton (down 80), rapeseed - palm oil is 1020 yuan/ton (down 80), soybean - rapeseed meal is 680 yuan/ton (down 40) [2]. Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production forecast is 92.27 million tons (up 1.31 million tons), and the annual forecast for rapeseed is 13446 thousand tons [2]. - Rapeseed imports are 0 tons (down 11.53 tons), and the import rapeseed crushing profit is 564 yuan/ton (up 100) [2]. - Rapeseed inventory in oil mills is 0.1 tons (up 0.1), and the weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 0% [2]. - Imports of rapeseed oil and mustard oil are 14 tons (down 2), and rapeseed meal imports are 22.06 tons (up 6.29) [2]. Industry Situation - Coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 0.5 tons (down 0.15), coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 0 tons (down 0.02) [2]. - East China rapeseed oil inventory is 29.8 tons (down 2.4), East China rapeseed meal inventory is 18.61 tons (down 0.75) [2]. - Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory is 0.4 tons (down 0.15), South China rapeseed meal inventory is 24.8 tons (up 1.4) [2]. - Weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 0.9 tons (up 0.9), weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 0 tons (down 0.45) [2]. Downstream Situation - Feed production is 2977.9 tons (up 20.9), and the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 6057 billion yuan (up 858) [2]. - Edible vegetable oil production is 427.6 tons (down 67.4) [2]. Option Market - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 16.65% (down 0.05), implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 16.65% (down 0.06) [2]. - 20 - day historical volatility for rapeseed meal is 11.82% (up 0.17), 60 - day historical volatility for rapeseed meal is 11.85% (up 0.09) [2]. - Implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 15.49% (up 1.54), implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 15.52% (up 1.55) [2]. - 20 - day historical volatility for rapeseed oil is 14.73% (up 1.67), 60 - day historical volatility for rapeseed oil is 14.73% (up 0.67) [2]. Industry News - On December 19, ICE rapeseed futures fell for the sixth consecutive trading day, with the most - actively traded March contract falling below 600 CAD/ton for the first time since March 2025 [2]. - The US soybean export season has abundant supply, and Brazil is expected to have a high - yield soybean harvest. The US is facing competition from cheaper Brazilian soybeans. China's soybean purchases have slowed down [2]. - Canada's AAFC raised the ending inventory forecast of Canadian rapeseed for the 2025/26 season by 450,000 tons to 2.95 million tons [2]. - Indonesia started the road test of B50 biodiesel two weeks ago, and the test is expected to last about six months. The mandatory use policy of B50 biodiesel is likely to be officially implemented in the second half of 2026 [2]. Key Points to Watch - The rapeseed operating rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventories in various regions reported by My Agricultural Network on Monday, and the development of China - Canada trade relations [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectations. The short - term near - month contracts may be in a wide - range oscillation state, and one can try to go long on the far - month contracts with a light position [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The futures closing price (active contract) of eggs is 2888 yuan/500 kilograms, with a环比 increase of 2 yuan [2] - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of eggs is - 49587 lots, with a环比 increase of 2623 lots [2] - The monthly spread (5 - 9) of the egg futures is - 512 yuan/500 kilograms, with a环比 decrease of 34 yuan [2] - The futures trading volume (active contract) of eggs is 186319 lots, with a环比 decrease of 1370 lots [2] - The registered warehouse receipt volume of eggs is 0 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of eggs is 3.06 yuan/jin, with a环比 decrease of 0.06 yuan [2] - The basis (spot - futures) is 167 yuan/500 kilograms, with a环比 decrease of 67 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The laying hen inventory index nationwide is 114.24 (2015 = 100), with a环比 decrease of 1.02 [2] - The culled laying hen index nationwide is 114.44 (2015 = 100), with a环比 decrease of 10.19 [2] - The average price of laying hen chicks in the main production areas is 2.8 yuan per chick, with no change [2] - The new - hatched chick index nationwide is 67.09 (2015 = 100), with a环比 decrease of 9.56 [2] - The average price of laying hen compound feed is 2.8 yuan/kg, with no change [2] - The breeding profit of laying hens is - 0.36 yuan per chicken, with no change [2] - The average price of culled chickens in the main production areas is 7.9 yuan/kg, with a环比 decrease of 0.04 yuan [2] - The age of culled chickens nationwide is 510 days, with a环比 increase of 3 days [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 17.56 yuan/kg, with a环比 increase of 0.03 yuan [2] - The average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 5.83 yuan/kg, with a环比 decrease of 0.04 yuan [2] - The average wholesale price of dressed chickens is 17.92 yuan/kg, with a环比 increase of 0.08 yuan [2] - The weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.12 days, with a环比 increase of 0.02 days [2] - The weekly inventory in the production link is 1 day, with a环比 decrease of 0.01 days [2] - The export volume of fresh eggs in the current month is 13394.53 tons, with a环比 increase of 178.74 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption volume of eggs in the sales areas is 7023 tons, with a环比 decrease of 104 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - The average price of eggs in Shandong's main production area is 5.99 yuan/kg, down 0.16 yuan from yesterday; in Hebei, it is 5.78 yuan/kg, down 0.08 yuan; in Guangdong, it is 6.53 yuan/kg, unchanged; in Beijing, it is 6.30 yuan/kg, down 0.10 yuan [2] - The continuous losses of the breeding end have led to a decline in the enthusiasm for replenishment and an increase in the number of old chicken culls. The laying hen inventory has slightly decreased, and the market atmosphere has slightly improved [2] 3.7 Key Points to Focus On - There is no news today [2]

流库区提货量尚可，库存小幅累库，后市继续关注外轮卸货情况。需求方面，上周宁波富德、青海盐湖装 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考，市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 置延续停车状态，MTO行业周均开工下降，联泓格润MTO装置投产负荷陆续提升，短期行业开工率预期小 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 幅增加。MA2605合约短线预计在2100-2190区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 甲醇产业日报 2025-12-22 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | ...

生猪产业日报 2025-12-22 研究员: 张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0018457 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 11345 | 20 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 161527 | -5817 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | 823 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -46530 | -136 | | 现货价格 | 生猪价 河南 驻 ...

研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 94,320.00 | +1140.00↑ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 11,975.00 | +93.50↑ | | | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | -50.00 | -10.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 246,790.00 | +9138.00↑ | | | 期货前20名持仓:沪铜(日,手) | -33,302.00 | -996.00↓ LME铜:库存(日,吨) | 160,400.00 | -3875.00↓ | | | 上期所库存:阴极铜(周,吨) | 95,805.00 | +6416.00↑ LME铜:注销仓单(日,吨) | 56,450.00 | -5100.00↓ | | | 上期所仓单:阴极铜(日,吨) | 48,542.00 | -2856.00↓ ...

| 项目类别 数据指标 | | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,277 | +8↑ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1188551 | -2627↓ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | 23,798 | +3437↑ HC1-5合约价差(元/吨) | 5 | -2↓ | | | HC 上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 131893 | +889↑ HC2605-RB2605合约价差(元/吨) | 151 | +1↑ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,310.00 | +20.00↑ 广州 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,270.00 | 0.00 | | | 武汉 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,330.00 | 0.00 天津 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,180.00 | 0.00 | | | HC主力合约基差(元/吨) | 33.00 | +12.00↑ 杭州热卷-螺纹钢价差(元/吨) | -20.00 ...

奏偏慢，成品库存攀升，产销压力下，部分企业存停限产现象。br2602合约短线预计在10700-11400区间 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 波动。 免责声明 合成橡胶产业日报 2025-12-22 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 11230 | 210 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 103729 | 1734 | | | 合成橡胶2-3价差(日,元/吨) | -15 | 10 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | 4560 | 0 | | 现货市场 | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 东(日,元/吨) | 10850 | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):山 0 | 10800 | 0 | | | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):上 | 10850 | 东(日,元/吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000, ...

免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不 做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状 明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 瑞达期货 | | --- | | RUIDA FUTURES CO.,LTD. | 集运指数（欧线）期货日报 2025/12/22 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 最新 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | EC主力收盘价 151.0↑ EC次主力收盘价 | 1871.800 | | 1166.8 | +40.50↑ | | 期货盘面 | EC2602-EC2604价差 +114.00↑ EC2602-EC2606价差 | 705.00 | | 551.80 | +120.30↑ | | | EC合约基差 -152.00↓ | -361.34 | | | | | 期货持仓头寸（手） EC主力持仓量 | 5003↑ ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.19」 棉花（纱）市场周报 研究员：王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证Z0021556 关 注 微信客 服 号 添加客服 业务咨询 目录 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：本周郑棉主力2601合约价格上涨，周度涨幅约1.19%。 美棉市场 行情展望：据美国农业部(USDA)报告显示，11月27日止当周，2025/26年度美国陆 地棉出口销售净增13.59万包，较前周减少8%，较前四周均值减少23%。2025/26年 度美国陆地棉出口装运量12.21万包，较前周增加1%，较前4周平均水平减少5%。 当周美国棉花出口签约量减少、装运量环比小增。国内市场：供应端，当前全国棉 花公检量已超550万吨，预计商业库存加速增长。另外，11月棉花进口量环比小幅增 加，预计进口港口库存维持增长趋势，据海关统计，2025年11月我国棉花进口总量 约12万吨，环比增加3万吨，同比增幅9.4%。需求端，下游纺企旺季采购结束，纺 企淡季特征逐渐现象，市场出货速度偏慢，预计短期棉价震荡为主。 3 图1、CFTC美棉净持仓与ICE美棉活跃合约价格走势 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 ...