Report Overview - Report Title: Sugar Market Weekly Report [2] - Report Date: December 19, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Wang Cuibing [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report Core View - This week, the price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract declined with a weekly drop of about 2.42%. The Brazilian sugarcane crushing and sugar production in the second half of November 2025 decreased year - on - year, and the Brazilian crushing is coming to an end with a seasonal reduction in supply. In the domestic market, the number of sugar mills in operation is increasing, and the industrial inventory of domestic sugar is in a seasonal growth trend. However, the sugar import volume in November decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. Overall, with sufficient supply and weak spot prices, the futures market is dragged down, and it is expected to maintain a weak operation in the later period [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Performance**: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract dropped by about 2.42% this week [5]. - **Supply Situation**: In Brazil, in the second half of November 2025, 15.993 million tons of sugarcane were crushed, a 21.08% year - on - year decrease, and 724,000 tons of sugar were produced, a 32.94% year - on - year decrease. In the domestic market, as of now, 68 sugar mills in Guangxi have started operation in the 2025/26 sugar - making season, 6 less than the same period last year; 31 sugar mills in Yunnan have started operation, 2 more than the same period last year. In November 2025, China's sugar import volume was 440,000 tons, a 41.3% month - on - month decrease and an 18.2% year - on - year decrease [5]. - **Market Outlook**: With sufficient supply and weak spot prices, the futures market is expected to remain weak. Future factors to watch include the domestic new sugar crushing situation and demand [5][6] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **US Sugar Market**: The price of the US Sugar March contract declined by about 4.17% this week. As of November 25, 2025, the non - commercial net short position of US raw sugar futures was 194,604 lots, an increase of 6,204 lots from the previous week [12]. - **International Raw Sugar Spot Price**: This week, the international raw sugar spot price was 14.58 cents per pound, an increase of 0.07 cents per pound from last week [16]. - **Zhengzhou Sugar Futures**: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2605 contract dropped by about 2.42% this week. The net position of the top 20 in Zhengzhou sugar futures was - 86,656 lots, and the number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts was 3,611 [18][25]. - **Zhengzhou Sugar Contract Spread**: The spread between the 5 - 9 contracts of Zhengzhou sugar futures was - 7 yuan per ton, and the basis of spot - Zhengzhou sugar was + 292 yuan per ton [29]. - **Spot Market**: As of December 19, the new sugar price in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 5,380 yuan per ton, and the sugar price in Nanning was 5,310 yuan per ton [35]. - **Imported Sugar Cost and Profit**: This week, the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 1,308 yuan per ton, a decrease of 42 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar outside the quota was 76 yuan per ton, a decrease of 52 yuan per ton from last week. The estimated profit of Thai sugar within the quota was 1,145 yuan per ton, a decrease of 30 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit of Thai sugar outside the quota was 48 yuan per ton, a decrease of 16 yuan per ton from last week [41] 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation - **Supply - Side - Production Increase**: As of the end of October 2025, the total sugar production in the 2024/25 sugar - making season was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03% [45]. - **Supply - Side - Industrial Inventory**: As of August 2025, the domestic sugar industrial inventory was 1.1623 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 450,000 tons or 27.91%, and a year - on - year increase of 60,100 tons or 5.45% [48]. - **Supply - Side - Imported Sugar Quantity**: In November 2025, China's sugar import volume was 440,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 23.08% and a month - on - month decrease of 310,000 tons. From January to November 2025, the cumulative sugar import volume was 4.34 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.74% [52]. - **Demand - Side - Sugar Sales Rate**: As of the end of October 2025, the sugar mills in the 2024/25 sugar - making season had all completed the crushing process. The total sugar production in this sugar - making season was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03% [58]. - **Demand - Side - Monthly Output of Refined Sugar and Soft Drinks**: In November 2025, China's monthly refined sugar output was 1.303 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. China's monthly soft drink output was 10.457 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.4% [62] 3.4 Option and Stock - Related Markets - **Option Market**: The report mentions the implied volatility of at - the - money options for sugar this week but does not provide specific data [63] - **Stock Market - Nanning Sugar Industry**: The report shows the price - to - earnings ratio chart of Nanning Sugar Industry but does not provide specific data [67]

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12. 19」 贵金属市场周报 作者： 研究员 廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 助理研究员 徐鼎烽 期货从业资格号：F03144963 「 周度要点小结」 ◆ 本周观点：本周贵金属市场延续偏强运行。受持续性库存偏紧因素影响，白银挤仓行情持续演绎，伦敦银和沪银 主力合约价格大幅上涨，金价本周震荡为主。美国11月就业人数的增长依然疲软，失业率上升，表明在10月表现 异常疲弱之后，劳动力市场的降温态势持续。11月核心CPI创下2021年初以来最慢增速，整体CPI同比上涨2.7%， 显著低于市场预期。受前期美政府停摆影响，10月CPI报告未能公布，本次CPI数据的可靠性亦受到市场质疑。美 联储理事沃勒最新表示，随着就业市场趋弱且通胀受控，美联储仍有50至100个基点的降息空间。但基于当前的 经济前景，美联储无需采取激烈的行动。此前美联储威廉姆斯表示，预计美国失业率将在2025年底降至4.5%，劳 动力市场风险已上升，而通胀风险已缓解。特朗普表示下一任美联储主席提名人选即将揭晓，且这名候选人会支 持"大幅"降低利率。在关税局势趋缓的背景下，核心通胀接近目标区间为后续降息做铺垫，就 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.19」 股指期货周报 作者：廖宏斌 期货从业资格号F30825507 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 联系电话：4008-8787-66 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、行情回顾 2、消息面概览 3、周度市场数据 4、行情展望与策略 「摘要」 • 周度观点：A股主要指数本周普遍下跌，除上证指数外均有不同幅度下跌。四期指表现分化。 本周海内外有大量经济数据公布，周一公布的国内11月经济数据延续弱势，股指连续两日承 压。周二、周四公布的美国11月就业及通胀数据虽呈现降温，但由于期间政府停摆使得市场 对数据的可信度下降，美联储降息预期仅微幅上升。本周，市场成交活跃度较上周回落。 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1、行情回顾 2020.06.30 厦门 「行情回顾」 | 期货 | 合约名称 | 周涨跌幅% | 周五涨跌幅% | 收盘价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IF2603 | -0.09 | 0.39 | 4527.0 | | | IH2603 | 0.89 | 0.69 | 3006.4 | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the platinum and palladium markets showed strong performance. The palladium futures main contract reached the daily limit twice, and the platinum futures main contract hit the daily limit once. The palladium 2606 contract rose 23.30% this week, and the platinum 2606 contract rose 18.03% [5]. - The recent sharp increase in platinum - group metal prices is mainly driven by spot shortages and arbitrage trading. The rapid recovery of the London platinum lease rate indicates tightened physical supply, and the continuous increase in palladium ETF holdings exacerbates the supply - demand contradiction. High basis and price differences between domestic and foreign markets stimulate arbitrage motives [5]. - In the medium to long term, platinum prices may be supported by the Fed's easing expectations, the continuation of the supply - demand structural deficit, and the expanding long - term demand expectations in the hydrogen economy. Palladium's demand is expected to weaken due to over - concentration in the automotive catalyst field and the continuous popularization of new - energy vehicles. However, the bullish sentiment driven by interest - rate cut expectations may support prices, and its low current price may make it a cost - effective choice again [5]. - The parabolic rise in the prices of platinum and palladium on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange may increase the short - term correction risk due to the upward repair demand of the basis. Next week, the spot price of London platinum is expected to face resistance at $2000 per ounce and support at $1800 per ounce, while the spot price of London palladium is expected to face resistance at $1750 per ounce and support at $1500 per ounce [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - week Summary - This week, the platinum and palladium markets were strong. The palladium 2606 contract rose 23.30%, and the platinum 2606 contract rose 18.03%. The price increase is driven by spot shortages and arbitrage trading. The medium - to - long - term price of platinum may be supported, while the demand outlook for palladium is weak, but there is some short - term price support. There is a short - term correction risk, and the price ranges for London platinum and palladium are predicted [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - As of December 19, 2025, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's palladium main 2606 contract was at 480.20 yuan per gram, up 23.20% this week, and the platinum main 2606 contract was at 533.55 yuan per gram, up 18.03% [10]. - As of December 2, 2025, the net long position of NYMEX platinum increased by 1.51% month - on - month to 23,286, and the net long position of NYMEX palladium decreased by 16.76% month - on - month to - 1491 [15]. - This week, the basis of NYMEX platinum and palladium main contracts strengthened [16]. - As of December 18, 2025, NYMEX platinum inventory increased by 1.66% month - on - month to 624,733.09 ounces, and palladium inventory decreased by 1.26% month - on - month to 186,849.34 ounces [23]. - This week, the price ratio of NYMEX platinum to COMEX gold increased, the rolling correlation coefficient between platinum and gold prices increased, and the positive correlation between platinum prices, NYMEX platinum inventory, and the US dollar index increased [24][27][31]. 3.3 Industry Supply - Demand Situation - As of October 2025, the import and export volumes of platinum both decreased [35]. - The demand for platinum in automobile exhaust catalysts is marginally weakening, and the total global demand for platinum and palladium is showing a moderate downward trend, while the global supply of platinum and palladium is declining [40][45][50]. 3.4 Macroeconomics and Options - This week, the US dollar index weakened, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield rebounded slightly [54].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.19」 热轧卷板市场周报 炉料走高提供支撑 热卷期价止跌反弹 添加客服 研究员：蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 价格：截至12月19日收盘，热卷主力合约期价为3269（+37），杭州涟钢热卷现货价格为3290（+0）。（单 位：元/吨/周） 2. 产量：热卷产量下调。291.91（-16.8），（同比-20.81）。（单位：万吨） 3. 需求：表观需求下滑。本期表需298.28（-13.69），（同比-11.06）。（单位：万吨） 4. 库存：厂库+社库双降。总库存390.72（-6.37），（同比+81.44）。（单位：万吨） 5. 盈利率：钢厂盈利率35.93%，环比上周持平，同比去年减少12.55个百分点。 「 周度要点小结2」 行情展望 4 来源：瑞达期货研究院 「周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 1. 宏观方面：海外，（1）美联储威廉姆斯表示，货币政策已为2026年做好充分准备。预计美国失业率 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.19」 沪铜市场周报 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 供给略增需求韧性，沪铜或将震荡运行 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 行情回顾：沪铜主力合约周线震荡偏弱，周线涨跌幅为-0.96%，振幅3.84%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价93180元/吨。 后市展望：国际方面，美国11月未季调CPI年率录得2.7%，低于市场预期的3.1%；美国11月未季调核心CPI年率录得 2.6%，为2021年3月以来新低。美国联邦基金利率期货显示，美联储明年1月份降息的可能性从26.6%上升至28.8%。国 内方面，国家发改委投资司指出，2025年以来投资下行压力加大，接下来要从畅通供需循环、投融资循环等方面采取针对 性措施，着力扩大有效投资。基本面原料端，铜精矿现货加工费指数负值区域运行且小幅下滑，矿紧预期将在较长的时期 持续奏效于铜冶炼端，为铜价提供较强成本支撑。供给方面，冶炼副产品硫酸价格小幅涨价，弥补冶炼厂部分利润损失。 加之，前期 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of live pigs has increased as large - scale farms have normal slaughter volumes, heavy pigs from the previous period are actively sold, and some regions affected by diseases are also selling standard pigs. On the demand side, the activities of curing bacon and making sausage have increased, leading to a rise in terminal consumption, and the slaughtering enterprise's operating rate has continuously rebounded. Overall, the situation of both supply and demand increasing continues, and the live pig price is mainly in a volatile market. The near - month basis has returned, and the main contract price on the futures market is relatively weak [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: The live pig price fluctuated, rising first and then falling, and the main contract 2603 closed flat for the week [7][11]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply increased due to normal slaughter by large - scale farms, active sales of heavy pigs, and disease - affected sales of standard pigs. Demand increased as curing and sausage - making activities drove up terminal consumption and the slaughtering enterprise's operating rate rebounded. The price will mainly show a volatile trend [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The futures price fluctuated, rising first and then falling, and the main contract 2603 closed flat for the week [7][11]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of December 19, the net short position of the top 20 holders increased by 3748 lots to 46394 lots, and the number of futures warehouse receipts was 823, an increase of 300 from the previous week [17]. - **Contract Spreads**: The spread between lh2603 and lh2605 was - 600, and the spread between lh2603 and lh2607 was - 1335 [21]. Spot Market - **Base Difference**: The basis of the January contract was 650 yuan/ton, and the basis of the March contract was 475 yuan/ton this week [26]. - **Prices of Live Pigs and Piglets**: The national average price of live pigs was 11.60 yuan/kg, up 0.07 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 23.38 yuan/kg, the same as the previous week [36]. - **Prices of Pork and Sows**: On December 11, the national average price of pork was 22.59 yuan/kg, down 0.15 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average price of binary sows was 32.46 yuan/kg, the same as the previous week [40]. - **Pig - to - Grain Ratio**: As of the week of December 10, 2025, the pig - to - grain ratio was 5.18, down 0.03 from the previous week [44]. 3. Industry Situation Upstream - **Sow Inventory**: In October 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.9 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.12% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.038%. In November, according to Mysteel data, the inventory of breeding sows in large - scale farms decreased by 0.37% month - on - month and increased by 0.07% year - on - year, and that in small and medium - sized farms decreased by 0.78% month - on - month and increased by 0.78% year - on - year [49]. - **Live Pig Inventory**: At the end of the third quarter of 2025, the live pig inventory was 436.8 million, a month - on - month increase of 2.9% and a year - on - year increase of 2.3%. In November, according to Mysteel data, the inventory of commercial pigs in large - scale farms increased by 0.32% month - on - month and 5.28% year - on - year, and that in small and medium - sized farms decreased by 0.07% month - on - month and increased by 6.94% year - on - year [53]. - **Slaughter Volume and Average Weight**: In November, according to Mysteel data, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in large - scale farms decreased by 0.65% month - on - month and increased by 5.59% year - on - year, and that in small and medium - sized farms decreased by 2.03% month - on - month and increased by 29.75% year - on - year. The average slaughter weight of live pigs was 123.67 kg, down 0.03 kg from the previous week [58]. Industry as a Whole - **Breeding Profits**: As of December 19, the loss of purchasing piglets for breeding was 189.5 yuan/head, a reduction of 51.19 yuan/head; the loss of self - breeding and self - raising was 130.88 yuan/head, a reduction of 32.46 yuan/head. The egg - laying hen breeding profit was - 0.36 yuan/head, the same as the previous week, and the 817 hybrid broiler breeding profit was 0.4 yuan/head, an increase of 0.42 yuan/head [63]. - **Pork Imports**: From January to November 2025, the cumulative pork imports were 920,000 tons, with an average monthly import of 83,600 tons. In November, the import volume was 60,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.33% [64][68]. - **Substitute Products**: As of the week of December 19, the price of white - striped chickens was 14.1 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.2 yuan/kg from the previous week. As of the week of December 18, the average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.48 yuan/kg, a reduction of 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous week [71]. - **Feed Situation**: As of December 19, the spot price of soybean meal was 3137.14 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22.29 yuan/ton from the previous week; the corn price was 2348.63 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.04 yuan/ton from the previous week. The closing price of the DCE pig feed cost index was 880.96, and the price of finishing pig compound feed was 3.33 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous week. In November 2025, the monthly feed output was 29.77 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 209,000 tons, and the sales of piglet feed increased by 0.42% month - on - month and 53.28% year - on - year [76][79][83]. - **CPI**: As of November 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.7% year - on - year [87]. Downstream - **Slaughtering Enterprises**: In the 51st week, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises was 39.87%, an increase of 1.33 percentage points from the previous week and 2.08 percentage points from the same period last year. The fresh - meat sales rate was 87.86%, an increase of 0.79% from the previous week, and the frozen - product storage rate was 18.19%, a decrease of 0.07% from the previous week [90]. - **Slaughter Volume and Catering Consumption**: As of October 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 38.34 million, an increase of 6.98% from the previous month and 33.31% from the same period last year. In November 2025, the national catering revenue was 605.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.2% [95]. 4. Live Pig - Related Stocks - The report shows the trend charts of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis is provided [96][99]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - This week, coking coal and coke experienced a technical rebound, and the mid - and downstream sectors replenished their stocks after the price decline. On the demand side, the crude steel output will continue to decline, the real estate investment data is poor, and the downstream maintains low procurement, with insufficient overall replenishment willingness. In terms of profit, coking coal gives up some profit to coke, but there is little room for a significant improvement in coke profit. For price trends, the coking coal futures contract 2605 should focus on the support at 1060, and the coke futures contract 2605 price should focus on the support at 1680 [7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights Summary - **Macro Aspect**: Among 11 sample steel mills in Jiangsu, 6 clearly stated they would implement scrap steel winter storage plans, accounting for about 55%. In 2025, most steel mills planning for winter storage and their planned storage volumes are lower than in 2024, with only 2 mills having the same plan as last year. The China Iron and Steel Association's official said self - discipline and spontaneous production control are important for high - quality industry development [7]. - **Overseas Aspect**: Fed Governor Waller said there is a 50 - 100 basis - point interest rate cut space as the job market weakens and inflation is under control [7]. - **Supply - Demand Aspect**: The current pig iron output is 226.55 (-2.65) tons, and the coke inventory is moderately weak. The steel mill inventory has increased this period, and attention should be paid to the steel mill's replenishment rhythm. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 16 yuan/ton [7]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the coke main contract 2605 is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish weekly trend [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of December 19, the coke futures contract open interest is 36,900 lots, a decrease of 9,739 lots compared to the previous period; the 5 - 1 contract monthly spread is 142.5, a decrease of 10.5 points compared to the previous period; the registered coke warehouse receipt volume is 2,070 lots, remaining unchanged compared to the previous period; the futures main contract screw - coke ratio is 1.95, a decrease of 0.12 points compared to the previous period [11][16]. - **Spot Market**: As of December 18, 2025, the coke closing price at Rizhao Port is 1,530 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous period. As of December 19, the coke basis is - 73.5 yuan, a decrease of 162.0 points compared to the previous period [25]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Mine and Wash Plant**: This week, the utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples is 86.6%, a 1.3% increase compared to the previous period. The daily average raw coal output is 1.927 million tons, an increase of 29,000 tons compared to the previous period. The raw coal inventory is 4.789 million tons, an increase of 65,000 tons compared to the previous period. The daily average clean coal output is 758,000 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons compared to the previous period, and the clean coal inventory is 2.728 million tons, an increase of 175,000 tons compared to the previous period. The utilization rate of 314 independent coal wash plant samples is 37.7%, a 0.5% decrease compared to the previous period; the daily clean coal output is 273,000 tons, a decrease of 6,000 tons compared to the previous period; the clean coal inventory is 3.273 million tons, a decrease of 51,000 tons compared to the previous period [29]. - **Coking Plant**: This week, the utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 70.50%, a decrease of 1.42%; the daily average coke output is 493,400 tons, a decrease of 9,900 tons. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 16 yuan/ton; the average profit of quasi - first - class coke in Shanxi is 35 yuan/ton, in Shandong is 65 yuan/ton, in Inner Mongolia's second - class coke is - 23 yuan/ton, and in Hebei's quasi - first - class coke is 66 yuan/ton [33]. - **Steel Mill**: This week, the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills is 2.2655 million tons, a decrease of 26,500 tons compared to last week and 28,600 tons compared to last year. As of December 19, 2025, the steel mill's coke inventory is 633,730 tons, a decrease of 1,550 tons, and the available days of coke are 11.72 days, an increase of 0.06 days [37]. - **Inventory**: As of December 19, 2025, the total coke inventory (independent coking plants + 4 major ports + steel mills) is 8.5712 million tons, a decrease of 93,800 tons compared to the previous period and a 1.33% increase compared to the same period last year. The coke inventory of 230 independent coking enterprises is 51,900 tons, an increase of 1,790 tons. The coke inventory of 18 ports is 2.3945 million tons, a decrease of 91,500 tons; among them, the coke inventory of 5 northern ports is 914,000 tons, a decrease of 110,000 tons, the 10 eastern ports is 1.1415 million tons, a decrease of 500 tons, and the 3 southern ports is 339,000 tons, an increase of 19,000 tons [41][46]. - **Export**: From January to October, the cumulative coke export is 622,000 tons, a 13.90% decrease compared to the same period last year. From January to November, the cumulative steel export volume reaches 108 million tons, a 6.7% increase compared to the same period last year [50]. - **Housing Data**: In October 2025, the housing sales price index of 70 large and medium - sized cities shows a 0.70% month - on - month decline in second - hand residential properties. From January to October 2025, the cumulative new housing construction area is 490.6139 million square meters, a 19.80% year - on - year decrease [53].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.19」 焦煤市场周报 供需偏弱&刚需低采，焦煤预计区间运行 研究员：徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链情况 「 周度要点小结1」 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 523家炼焦煤矿山产量：原煤日均产量192.7万吨，环比增2.9万吨。 2. 314家独立洗煤厂：精煤日产27.3万吨，环比减0.6万吨。 3. 炼焦煤总库存（独立焦化厂+6大港口+钢厂）：为1970.5吨，环比-16.33万吨，同比-7.16%。 4. 仓单：唐山蒙5#精煤报1320，折盘面1100 5. 吨焦盈利情况：全国30家独立焦化厂平均吨焦盈利16元/吨。 6. 钢厂盈利率：钢厂盈利率35.93%，环比上周持平，同比去年减少12.55个百分点。 7. 需求端铁水产量：日均铁水产量226.55万吨，环比上周减少2.65万吨，同比去年减少2.86万吨。 「 周度要点小结2」 行情展望 行情回顾 4 来源：瑞达期货研究院 「 期现市场情况」 持仓 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed market is affected by international factors, with domestic rapeseed products following the downward trend of international rapeseed. The short - term outlook for rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal is weak, but there are also some supporting factors in the domestic market [7][9]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary Rapeseed Oil - **Market Review**: This week, rapeseed oil futures continued to decline, with the 05 - contract closing at 8,744 yuan/ton, a decrease of 603 yuan/ton from the previous week [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The AAFC raised Canada's rapeseed ending stocks for the 2025/26 season, easing the supply - demand situation and dragging down prices. Other factors include the EPA's pending biofuel blending mandates, the decline in Malaysian palm oil exports, and the drop in crude oil prices. Domestically, the supply of imported rapeseed is tightening, and oil mills are mostly shut down, leading to inventory reduction. However, the arrival of Australian rapeseed and potential Canadian imports may increase future supply. With ample soybean oil supply, rapeseed oil demand remains limited. The short - term trend is expected to be weakly volatile [7]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market Review**: This week, rapeseed meal futures fluctuated narrowly and closed lower, with the 05 - contract closing at 2,323 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton from the previous week [9]. - **Market Outlook**: During the US soybean export season, supply is abundant, and Brazil's high - yield forecast intensifies competition. China's procurement has slowed down, causing the US soybean futures price to fall. Domestically, near - term imports of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal are restricted, and oil mills are shut down, tightening supply. However, the arrival of Australian rapeseed and potential Canadian imports may increase future supply. With the good substitution advantage of soybean meal, rapeseed meal demand is weak. The short - term trend is expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to China's soybean procurement [9]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Price and Position - Rapeseed oil futures declined significantly this week, with a total open interest of 208,179 lots, an increase of 37,152 lots from last week. Rapeseed meal futures fluctuated narrowly and closed lower, with a total open interest of 598,488 lots, an increase of 16,820 lots from last week [14]. - The net position of the top 20 traders in rapeseed oil futures was - 27,499 this week, compared to - 2,529 last week, indicating a significant increase in net short positions. The net position of the top 20 traders in rapeseed meal futures was - 74,459 this week, compared to - 70,504 last week, also showing a significant increase in net short positions [20]. Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of rapeseed oil were 3,926 lots, and those of rapeseed meal were 0 lots [27]. Spot Price and Basis - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,230 yuan/ton, a significant decline from last week. The basis between the active rapeseed oil contract and the Jiangsu spot price was + 486 yuan/ton [33]. - The spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong, Jiangsu was 2,400 yuan/ton, a slight decline from last week. The basis between the Jiangsu spot price and the active rapeseed meal contract was + 77 yuan/ton [39]. Futures Inter - monthly Spread - The 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil was - 2 yuan/ton, at a medium level in recent years. The 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed meal was - 59 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in recent years [45]. Futures - Spot Ratio - The ratio of the 05 - contract of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal was 3.764, and the average spot price ratio was 3.85 [48]. Spread between Rapeseed Oil and Other Oils - The 05 - contract spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1,032 yuan/ton, narrowing slightly this week. The 05 - contract spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 452 yuan/ton, also narrowing slightly this week [58]. Spread between Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - The 05 - contract spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 412 yuan/ton. As of Thursday, the spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 700 yuan/ton [64]. 3. Industry Chain Situation Rapeseed - **Supply - Side**: As of the end of the 50th week of 2025, the domestic imported rapeseed inventory was 60,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from last week. The estimated arrival volumes of rapeseed in December 2025, January, and February were 150,000, 450,000, and 420,000 tons respectively [68]. - The spot crushing profit of imported rapeseed was + 1,189 yuan/ton as of December 18. As of the 50th week of 2025, the crushing volume of rapeseed in major coastal oil mills was 0 tons, with an operating rate of 0%. China's rapeseed imports in October 2025 were 0 tons [72][76][80]. Rapeseed Oil - **Supply - Side**: As of the end of the 50th week of 2025, the domestic imported rapeseed oil inventory was 384,000 tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 5.34%. China's rapeseed oil imports in November 2025 were 170,000 tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from the same period last year and an increase of 30,000 tons from last month [84]. - **Demand - Side**: As of October 31, 2025, the monthly output of edible vegetable oil was 427,600 tons. As of the end of November, the monthly retail sales of catering services were 605.7 billion yuan. As of the end of the 50th week of 2025, the weekly contract volume of domestic imported rapeseed oil was 54,000 tons, an increase of 4,000 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 9.98% [88][92]. Rapeseed Meal - **Supply - Side**: As of the end of the 50th week of 2025, the domestic imported rapeseed meal inventory was 0 tons, the same as last week. China's rapeseed meal imports in October 2025 were 220,600 tons, a decrease of 85,700 tons from the same period last year and an increase of 63,000 tons from last month [96][100]. - **Demand - Side**: As of November 30, 2025, the monthly output of feed was 2,977,900 tons [104]. 4. Options Market Analysis - As of December 19, the implied volatility of rapeseed meal options was 16.49%, a decrease of 0.71% from last week, at a medium level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset [108].