1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of the pig market remains loose, and pig prices are still under pressure. However, a meeting in mid - September will affect market sentiment and cause price fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see for now [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Review**: Pig prices fluctuated downward, with the main contract 2511 down 0.53% for the week [7][11]. - **Market Outlook**: On the supply side, farmers have a sentiment of holding up prices, and spot prices are stable with fluctuations. But the inventory of breeding sows in September corresponds to the peak of the previous increase cycle, and the number of newborn piglets six months ago increased, so there is supply pressure. According to Mysteel data, the planned slaughter volume in September increased month - on - month. The meeting on September 16 will affect market sentiment. On the demand side, the demand in the north has slightly recovered due to the temperature drop, and the slaughterhouse operating rate has continued to rise, but the growth rate has declined in the latest week [7]. 3.2 Futures Market Situation - **Price Movement**: Pig futures prices declined this week, with the main contract 2511 down 0.53% for the week [7][11]. - **Net Position and Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 12, the net short position of the top 20 holders in pig futures increased by 891 lots to 15,745 lots, and the number of futures warehouse receipts was 428, a decrease of 2 lots from last week [17]. - **Contract Spreads**: The spread between lh2511 and lh2601 contracts was - 435, and the spread between lh2511 and lh2603 contracts was 195 [21]. 3.3 Spot Market Situation - **Pig and Piglet Prices**: The average national pig market price this week was 13.49 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.38 yuan/kg from last week and a 2.1% decrease from last month. The average price of 15 - kg weaned piglets was 28.00 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week and a 2.51% decrease from the same period last month [34]. - **Pork and Breeding Sow Prices**: As of the week of August 28, the national pork market price was 24.83 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average market price of binary sows this week was 32.51 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous week [39]. - **Pig - Grain Ratio**: As of the week of August 20, 2025, the pig - grain ratio was 5.89, a decrease of 0.05 from the previous week [44]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - **Breeding Sow Inventory**: In late July 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.41 million heads, a decrease of 10,000 heads month - on - month and a 0.025% decrease year - on - year, reaching 103.6% of the normal inventory. According to Mysteel data, in August, the inventory of breeding sows in 123 large - scale farms decreased slightly by 0.83% month - on - month and increased by 1.86% year - on - year; in 85 small and medium - sized farms, it decreased slightly by 0.09% month - on - month and increased by 5.92% year - on - year [49]. - **Pig Inventory**: In Q2 2023, the pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, an increase of 7.16 million heads from the end of the previous quarter and an increase of 9.14 million heads year - on - year. According to Mysteel data, in August, the inventory of commercial pigs in 123 large - scale farms increased by 1.11% month - on - month and 5.28% year - on - year; in 85 small and medium - sized farms in July, it increased by 2.49% month - on - month and 7.23% year - on - year [55]. - **Pig Slaughter Volume and Average Weight**: In August, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in 123 large - scale farms was 10.7035 million heads, an increase of 2.56% month - on - month and 23.49% year - on - year; in 85 small and medium - sized farms in July, it was 0.4737 million heads, a decrease of 1.44% month - on - month and an increase of 54.30% year - on - year. The average slaughter weight of national outer - ternary pigs this week was 123.47 kg, an increase of 0.07 kg from last week [60]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Breeding Profits**: As of September 12, the breeding profit of purchasing piglets reported a loss of 161.93 yuan/head, with the loss widening by 13.53 yuan/head; the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was 16.84 yuan/head, a decrease of 15.39 yuan/head month - on - month. The egg - laying hen breeding profit was - 0.02 yuan/head, with the weekly loss decreasing by 0.21 yuan/head, and the 817 meat - hybrid chicken breeding profit was 1.12 yuan/head [65]. - **Pork Imports**: In July 2025, China's pork imports were 90,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6%; from January to July, the imports were 630,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.1% [70]. - **Substitute Products**: As of the week of September 12, the price of white - striped chickens was 14.3 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week. As of the week of September 11, the average national price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.40 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week [73]. - **Feed Situation**: As of September 12, the spot price of soybean meal was 3079.43 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.86 yuan/ton from the previous week; as of September 11, the corn price was 2365.49 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.55 yuan/ton from the previous week. The closing price of the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 912.18, a decrease of 0.66% from last week; the price of fattening pig compound feed was 3.35 yuan/kg, unchanged from last week. As of July 2025, the monthly feed production was 2827.3 tons, a decrease of 110.4 tons month - on - month. According to Mysteel data, in July 2025, the sales of piglet feed decreased by 0.04% month - on - month and increased by 9.15% year - on - year [80][85][89]. - **CPI**: As of August 2025, China's CPI decreased by 0.4% year - on - year [93]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - **Slaughter and Demand**: The operating rate of slaughter enterprises increased, and the frozen - product storage capacity remained stable. As of July 2025, the slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 31.66 million heads, an increase of 5.32% from the previous month. In July 2025, the national catering revenue was 450.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.1% [94][100]. 3.7 Pig - Related Stocks The report provides trend charts of Muyuan Co., Ltd. and Wens Co., Ltd., but no specific analysis content [101][104].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose, with a weekly increase of about 0.31%. The price of the ICE US Sugar October contract also rose, with a weekly increase of about 1.41%. The international raw sugar spot price was 16.15 cents per pound, down 0.19 cents per pound from last week [5][11][15]. - Internationally, institutions predict that sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the second half of August will increase by 17.3% to 3.84 million tons, and the sugarcane crushing volume is expected to increase by 9.5% year - on - year to 49.5 million tons. Domestically, the sugar sales data in August was lower than the same period in previous years, but the inventory remained relatively low. Downstream is in the pre - holiday stocking stage, and rigid demand is expected to support prices. In the short term, the decline of sugar prices may be limited [5]. - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see for the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract in the short term. Future factors to focus on include domestic production and sales and pre - holiday stocking [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.31% [5]. - **Market Outlook**: International sugar production in Brazil is expected to increase. Domestically, sales in August were lower than usual, but inventory was low. Downstream stocking may support prices, and short - term price decline may be limited [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see for the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract in the short term [5]. - **Future Focus**: Domestic production and sales and pre - holiday stocking [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **US Sugar Futures**: The price of the US Sugar October contract rose this week, with a weekly increase of about 1.41%. As of September 2, 2025, the non - commercial net short position of raw sugar futures was 85,805 lots, an increase of 11,067 lots from the previous week [11]. - **International Raw Sugar Spot**: The international raw sugar spot price was 16.15 cents per pound, down 0.19 cents per pound from last week [15]. - **Zhengzhou Sugar Futures**: The price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.31%. The net position of the top 20 in Zhengzhou sugar futures was - 51,979 lots, and the number of Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts was 11,599 [18][23]. - **Zhengzhou Sugar Contract Spread**: The spread between the 1 - 5 contracts of Zhengzhou sugar futures was + 23 yuan/ton, and the spot - Zhengzhou sugar basis was + 430 yuan/ton [27]. - **Spot Market**: As of September 12, the price of Liuzhou sugar in Guangxi was 5,970 yuan/ton, and the spot price of Kunming sugar in Yunnan was 5,850 yuan/ton [34]. - **Imported Sugar Cost and Profit**: This week, the estimated profit of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 1,572 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan/ton from last week; the estimated profit outside the quota was 183 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan/ton from last week. The estimated profit of Thai sugar within the quota was 1,365 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton from last week; the estimated profit outside the quota was 177 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton from last week [40]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side - Production**: As of the end of August 2025, the national sugar production in the 2024/25 sugar - making season was 11.1621 million tons, an increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03% year - on - year [43]. - **Supply Side - Industrial Inventory**: As of August 2025, the domestic sugar industrial inventory was 1.1623 million tons, a decrease of 450,000 tons or 27.91% month - on - month, and an increase of 60,100 tons or 5.45% year - on - year [46]. - **Supply Side - Imported Sugar Quantity**: In July 2025, China's sugar imports were 740,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 41.56% and a month - on - month increase of 320,000 tons. From January to July 2025, the cumulative sugar imports were 1.78 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.41% [50]. - **Demand Side - Sugar Sales Rate**: As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar sales were 9.9998 million tons, an increase of 1.1388 million tons year - on - year, and the cumulative sugar sales rate was 89.59%, an acceleration of 0.65 percentage points year - on - year [54]. - **Demand Side - Finished Sugar and Soft Drink Production**: In July 2025, China's monthly production of finished sugar was 410,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 64.7%. The monthly production of soft drinks was 17.9663 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.7% [58]. 3.4 Option and Stock - Related Market - **Option Market**: Information about the implied volatility of at - the - money options of sugar this week is provided, but no specific data is given [59]. - **Stock Market - Nanning Sugar Industry**: Information about the price - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry is provided, but no specific analysis is given [64].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The HC2601 contract of hot - rolled coils is expected to be oscillating upward, with strong technical support around 3300. The recommended trading range is 3300 - 3400. The macro - environment has the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation rising and tariff disturbances affecting market sentiment. The industry shows that hot - rolled coil production has increased, terminal demand is resilient, inventory has declined, and apparent demand has rebounded. Cost support has strengthened due to increased iron - water production boosting furnace - charge demand [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary 3.1.1. Market Review - As of September 12, the closing price of the main hot - rolled coil contract was 3364 yuan/ton (+24), and the spot price of Hangzhou Lianggang hot - rolled coils was 3410 yuan/ton (+10). - Hot - rolled coil production increased to 325.14 million tons (+10.9), a year - on - year increase of 22.97 million tons. - Apparent demand rose to 326.16 million tons (+20.8), a year - on - year increase of 12.22 million tons. - Factory inventory increased, while social inventory decreased. Total inventory was 373.32 million tons (-1.02), a year - on - year decrease of 57.89 million tons. - The steel - mill profitability rate was 60.17%, a 0.87 - percentage - point decrease from last week but a 54.11 - percentage - point increase from last year [7]. 3.1.2. Market Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: Overseas, the weak US non - farm payrolls in August increased the Fed's September interest - rate cut expectation, and Mexico planned to raise import tariffs. Domestically, multiple ministries announced work priorities to promote capacity management and support employment and foreign trade. - **Supply - and - demand aspect**: Weekly hot - rolled coil production increased, with a capacity utilization rate of 83.06%. Terminal demand recovered, inventory slightly declined, and apparent demand increased. - **Cost aspect**: Iron ore prices were firm due to lower shipments and increased iron - water production. Coke prices were cut, but coking - coal futures were oscillating upward due to mine shutdowns and increased furnace - charge demand. - **Technical aspect**: The HC2601 contract was oscillating upward, with strong support around 3300 and trading above MA10/MA20. The MACD showed a possible golden cross below the 0 - axis with shrinking green bars. - **Strategy suggestion**: Considering the macro and industrial situations, the HC2601 contract is recommended to be traded in the 3300 - 3400 range, with attention to operation rhythm and risk control [9]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures price**: The HC2601 contract was oscillating upward this week. The HC2510 contract was stronger than the HC2601 contract, with a spread of 31 yuan/ton on the 12th, a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton [15]. - **Warehouse receipts and positions**: Shanghai Futures Exchange hot - rolled coil warehouse receipts increased, and the net short position of the top 20 holders decreased. On September 12, the warehouse - receipt volume was 59441 tons, a week - on - week increase of 34382 tons, and the net short position was 102712 contracts, a decrease of 10791 contracts from last week [21]. - **Spot price**: Spot prices increased. On September 12, the spot price of Shanghai 5.75mm Q235 hot - rolled coils was 3410 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 3434 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 14 yuan/ton. The basis was 46 yuan/ton on the 12th, a week - on - week decrease of 14 yuan/ton [25]. 3.3. Upstream Market Conditions - **Raw - material prices**: On September 12, the price of 61% Australian Macfarlane ore at Qingdao Port was 848 yuan/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 11 yuan/dry ton. The spot price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1620 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton [31]. - **Arrival volume**: From September 1 - 7, 2025, the total arrival volume at 47 Chinese ports decreased. The global iron - ore shipment volume was 2756.2 million tons, a decrease of 800.6 million tons. The Australia - Brazil iron - ore shipment volume was 2329.6 million tons, a decrease of 572.5 million tons [35]. - **Port inventory**: This week, iron - ore port inventory increased. The total inventory at 47 ports was 14456.12 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 30.40 million tons. The daily average port - clearance volume was 344.39 million tons, an increase of 14.06 million tons. On September 11, the steel - billet inventory in Tangshan, Hebei was 128.95 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7.58 million tons but a year - on - year increase of 11.82 million tons [39]. - **Coking - plant situation**: This week, the coking - plant capacity utilization rate increased to 75.58% (+2.97%), and coke inventory increased to 43.91 million tons (+3.2). The total coking - coal inventory decreased to 752.00 million tons (-28.95), and the available coking - coal days decreased to 10.6 days (-0.86) [43]. 3.4. Industry Conditions 3.4.1. Supply Side - **Steel production and trade**: In July 2025, national crude - steel production was 7966 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.0%. From January to July, the cumulative crude - steel production was 59447 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1%. In August, steel exports were 951 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 32.6 million tons, and imports were 50.0 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.8 million tons [46]. - **Blast - furnace operation**: On September 11, the weekly hot - rolled coil production of 37 enterprises was 325.14 million tons, an increase of 10.9 million tons from last week. The blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.83% on September 12, a week - on - week increase of 3.43 percentage points, and the blast - furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.18%, a week - on - week increase of 4.39 percentage points [48][50]. - **Inventory**: On September 11, the in - factory hot - rolled coil inventory was 80.88 million tons, an increase of 0.9 million tons from last week, and the social inventory in 33 cities was 292.44 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.92 million tons. The total inventory was 373.32 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.02 million tons [55]. 3.4.2. Demand Side - **Automobile and home - appliance industries**: From January to August 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2105.1 million and 2112.8 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 12.7% and 12.6%. In August, production and sales were 281.5 million and 285.7 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 13% and 16.4%. From January to July, the cumulative production of household air - conditioners was 18345.54 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%; household refrigerators were 5963.15 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%; and household washing machines were 6812.82 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.4% [58].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.09.12」 玉米类市场周报 续涨动能略显不足 玉米期价止涨回落 研究员：许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0017638 取 更 多 资 讯 「 周度要点小结」 总结及策略建议 Ø 策略建议：短期观望。 3 联系电话：0595-86778969 关 注 我 们 获 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 Ø 玉米： Ø 行情回顾：本周玉米期货有所回落。主力2511合约收盘价为2197元/吨，较前一周-27元/吨。 Ø 行情展望：USDA在每周作物生长报告中公布，截止2025年9月7日当周，美玉米优良率为68%， 高于市场预期的67%，前一周为69%，上年同期为64%。优良率下滑增添后期USDA产量下调的预 估，市场关注USDA月度报告。国内方面，国内进口玉米拍卖和小麦饲用持续补充市场，春玉米及 夏玉米也在不断上市，市场流通数量有所增加，但下游企业有远期合同支撑，短期采购动力偏弱， 玉米价格低位震荡。不过，国内部分区域新季玉米上市偏早，企业已经陆续开秤收购新季玉米， 开秤价格同比略有偏高， ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.09.12」 焦煤市场周报 扰动下降多空反复，盘面延续震荡运行 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链情况 「 周度要点小结1」 研究员：徐玉花 期货从业资格号F03132080 期货投资咨询从业证书号 Z0021386 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 目录 行情回顾 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 523家炼焦煤矿山产量：原煤日均产量185.6万吨，环比增15.6万吨。 2. 314家独立洗煤厂：精煤日产26.0万吨，环比增0.3万吨。 3. 炼焦煤总库存（独立焦化厂+6大港口+钢厂）：为1849.57万吨，环比下降56.94万吨，同比增加1.62%。 4. 仓单：唐山蒙5#精煤报1366，折盘面1146 5. 吨焦盈利情况：全国30家独立焦化厂平均吨焦盈利35元/吨。 6. 钢厂盈利率：钢厂盈利率60.17%，环比上周减少0.87个百分点，同比去年增加54.11个百分点。 7. 需求端铁水产量：日均铁水产量240.55万吨，环比上周增加11.71万吨，同比去年增加17.17万吨。 「 周度要点小结2」 行情展望 4 来源：瑞达期货研究 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.09.12」 沪铜市场周报 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 降息预期VS供需暂弱，沪铜或将震荡运行 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 本周沪铜合约走强，现货贴水 图1、主力合约收盘及持仓 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 180000 200000 220000 240000 260000 280000 50000 55000 60000 65000 70000 75000 80000 85000 2024-10-18 2024-12-18 2025-02-18 2025-04-18 2025-06-18 2025-08-18 主力合约收盘价及持仓 CUZL.SHF CUZL.SHF 图2、铜价期现基差走势 行情回顾：沪铜主力合约周线震荡偏强，周线涨跌幅为+1.15%，振幅2.23%。截止本周主力合约收盘报价81060元/吨。 后市展望：国际方面，美国劳工统计局公布最新数据，美国8月CPI ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 decreased by about 1.0% this week. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. Attention should be paid to changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory. Internationally, the US cotton export signing and shipment volumes decreased significantly. Domestically, the inventory remains low, the market supply is still tight, downstream orders have slightly increased, and the spinning mills' startup rate remains low. [6][7][21] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: Wait and see for the Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 contract in the short - term [6] - Future trading tips: Monitor foreign cotton price changes, demand, and inventory [7] - Market review: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 decreased by about 1.0% this week [7] - Market outlook: Internationally, the US cotton export signing and shipment volumes decreased significantly. Domestically, the inventory is low, the market supply is tight, downstream orders increased slightly, and the spinning mills' startup rate remains low [7] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 US Cotton Market - The price of the US Cotton December contract increased by about 0.75% this week. As of September 2, 2025, the non - commercial long positions in US cotton futures were 70,472 lots, an increase of 3,012 lots from the previous week; the non - commercial short positions were 118,684 lots, an increase of 13,618 lots from the previous week; the net short position was 48,212 lots, an increase of 10,606 lots from the previous week [11] 3.2.2 Foreign Cotton Spot Market - As of September 4, the net increase in US cotton export sales was 129,600 bales, a 47% decrease from the previous week and a 33% decrease from the average of the previous 4 weeks. The current international cotton spot price is 77.85 cents per pound, a 0.35 - cent increase from last week [16] 3.2.3 Futures Market - The price of the Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 contract decreased by about 1.0% this week, and the price of the Cotton Yarn Futures 2511 contract decreased by about 0.60%. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 29,297 lots, and that in cotton yarn futures was - 288 lots. The number of cotton futures warrants at the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 5,017, and that of cotton yarn futures was 90 [21][27][33] 3.2.4 Spot Market - As of September 12, 2025, the spot price index of Cotton 3128B was 15,248 yuan per ton, and the spot price index of Chinese Cotton Yarn C32S was 20,745 yuan per ton. The CY index for OEC10s (rotor - spun yarn) was 14,800 yuan per ton, and for OEC10s (combed yarn) was 23,880 yuan per ton [41][52] 3.2.5 Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost - As of September 11, the sliding - scale duty price of imported cotton was 14,176 yuan per ton, a 48 - yuan increase from last week; the quota price of imported cotton was 13,319 yuan per ton, a 70 - yuan increase from last week. The price indices of imported cotton yarn (FCY Index) for port pick - up prices of C21S, C32S, and JC32S were 20,180 yuan per ton, 21,235 yuan per ton, and 23,080 yuan per ton respectively [56] 3.2.6 Imported Cotton Price Cost - Profit - As of September 11, the estimated profit of imported cotton with sliding - scale duty was 1,110 yuan per ton, a 227 - yuan decrease from last week; the estimated profit of imported cotton with quota was 1,967 yuan per ton, a 249 - yuan decrease from last week [59] 3.3 Industry Chain Situation 3.3.1 Supply Side - As of the end of August, the national commercial cotton inventory was 1.4817 million tons, a decrease of 708,100 tons from the previous month, a decline of 32.34%. As of July 31, the industrial cotton inventory was 898,400 tons, a 1.85% increase from the previous month. In July 2025, China's cotton import volume was 50,000 tons, a 66.67% increase from the previous month. As of July, the import volume of cotton yarn was 110,000 tons, unchanged from the previous month [62][69] 3.3.2 Mid - end Industry - In July, the yarn inventory days of textile enterprises were 27.67 days, a 2.43% decrease from the previous month. The grey fabric inventory days were 36.14 days, a 2.95% decrease from the previous month [72] 3.3.3 Terminal Consumption - In July 2025, the export value of textile yarns, fabrics, and products was 11,604.009 million US dollars, a 3.69% decrease from the previous month. The export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 15,161.759 million US dollars, a 0.69% decrease from the previous month. As of July 31, 2025, the cumulative retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles were 837.1 billion yuan, a 12.73% increase from the previous month, and the cumulative year - on - year growth was 2.9%, a 6.45% decrease from the previous month [78][82] 3.4 Options and Stock Market - related Market - No specific analysis content provided for the options market, only mentioned the implied volatility of at - the - money cotton options this week. For the stock market, only the price - to - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd. was presented [83][86]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, industrial silicon decreased by 0.85% and polysilicon dropped by 5.51%. The industrial silicon futures market showed a volatile trend, while the polysilicon futures market was in a downward - oscillating state [4]. - For industrial silicon, the supply side shows a regional differentiation pattern of "steady production increase in the northwest and capacity shrinkage in the southwest". The demand from the downstream organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy sectors has different impacts on industrial silicon. Overall, the total demand from the three downstream industries for industrial silicon remains flat. The polysilicon market is expected to be in a high - level oscillation next week [4]. - For polysilicon, the supply - demand relationship is characterized by increasing supply and weakening demand. Although the price has been strongly pulled up recently, the long - term demand may be restricted [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - **Market Performance**: Industrial silicon decreased by 0.85% this week, and polysilicon dropped by 5.51%. The industrial silicon futures market was volatile, and the polysilicon futures market oscillated downward [4]. - **Market Outlook**: - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply side shows regional differentiation. In the demand side, the organic silicon market has a negative impact on the demand for industrial silicon, the polysilicon industry has an increasing demand but may be restricted in the long - term, and the aluminum alloy industry has limited demand for industrial silicon [4]. - **Polysilicon**: The supply - demand relationship is "supply increase, demand decrease". It is expected to show a high - level oscillation next week [4]. - **Operation Suggestions**: The main contract of industrial silicon is expected to oscillate in the range of 8000 - 9000, with a stop - loss range of 7500 - 9500. The main contract of polysilicon is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with an oscillation range of 52000 - 58000 and a stop - loss range of 49000 - 60000 [4]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price decreased this week, the spot price increased, and the basis weakened. As of September 11, 2025, the spot price was 9200 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from last week, and the basis was 460 yuan/ton [10][12]. - **Polysilicon**: Both the futures and spot prices increased this week, and the basis strengthened. As of September 11, 2025, the spot price was 51.55 yuan/kg, up 0.05 yuan/kg from last week, and the basis was - 2160 yuan/g [14][16]. - **Industrial Silicon Production**: As of September 11, 2025, the national industrial silicon output was about 85100 tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 58.60% [19]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Cost**: This week, the raw materials and electricity prices of industrial silicon remained flat. During the wet season, the overall cost remained low. The electricity price in the northwest region was adjusted to 0.30 yuan/kWh, and the electricity price in Baoshan was 0.29 yuan/kWh [21][24]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 11, 2025, the warehouse receipt quantity of industrial silicon was 50093 lots, up 21 lots from last week [28]. - **Organic Silicon**: This week, the output and operating rate of organic silicon increased. As of September 11, 2025, the weekly output was 47800 tons, up 3%, and the weekly operating rate was 72.71%, up 3%. However, the profit decreased, and it is expected that the output will decrease in the future, reducing the demand for industrial silicon [30][35][37]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The spot price of aluminum alloy increased, and the inventory continued to rise. As of September 11, 2025, the price was 20800 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from last week, and the inventory was 70800 tons, up 12900 tons from last week. It is expected that the demand for industrial silicon will be negative [43][45]. - **Silicon Wafer and Battery Cell**: The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells increased. As of September 11, 2025, the silicon wafer price was 1.45 yuan/piece, up 0.03 yuan/piece from last week, and the battery cell price was 0.3 yuan/W, up 0.01 yuan/W from last week. It is expected that the demand for polysilicon will increase slightly [50][52]. - **Polysilicon**: This week, the cost of polysilicon increased, the profit decreased, and the inventory decreased. As of September 11, 2025, the profit was 11940 yuan/ton, the average cost was 39610 yuan/ton, and the inventory was 276000 tons [57][61].

「2025.09.12」 沪铅市场周报 联储议息即将来临，沪铅需求有望增加 业 务 咨 询 研究员 添 加 客 服 :黄闻杰 期货从业资格号F03142112 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021738 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 瑞达期货研究院 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 3 u 行情回顾：本周沪铅期货呈现震荡上行态势。沪期铅主力合约2510表现活跃，本周沪铅2510上涨 0.83%。本周在美国宏观数据走弱，市场交易降息预期下，黄金等有色集体创新高从而带动欠佳上 行，预计下周沪铅仍有上行动能。 u 行情展望：宏观层面，美国劳工部最新数据显示8月非农新增就业仅2.2万人，远低于市场预期的 7.5万人，失业率升至4.3%（近四年新高），薪资增长放缓。数据公布后，市场对美联储9月降息的 预期急剧升温，市场流动性宽松预期增强。从供应端来看，伴随着检修结束，部分企业开始小幅恢 复声场，本周原生铅产量阶段性恢复。再生铅方面，受环保督查和废电瓶回收效率下降影响，产能 释放放缓。例如据相关数据显示，再生铅企业生产利润仍然承压，短时内开工维持低位运行，多以 保障长单为主。从 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic urea market continued its downward trend. As of Thursday, the mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized urea particles in Shandong dropped to 1,600 - 1,660 yuan/ton, with the average price down 45 yuan/ton week - on - week. In the near future, some idle plants have resumed production, increasing the daily output of domestic urea. Next week, it is expected that 1 enterprise will plan to stop production, and 5 - 6 idle enterprises will resume production. Considering short - term enterprise malfunctions, the output may increase. The domestic agricultural demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the reserve demand has not started significantly. The trading activity in the domestic market is low, providing limited support for the urea market. The improvement of industrial demand is less than expected. Although the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers has rebounded week - on - week, enterprises mainly produce based on sales, and the short - term adjustment of the operating rate is expected to be limited. This week, the inventory of enterprises varied, but the overall inventory increased. Affected by the Indian tender and export policies, urea exports continued to accelerate. Some enterprises' inventory decreased due to the execution of export orders, while the inventory of non - exporting urea enterprises slowly increased due to the slow progress of domestic demand. Due to the low trading sentiment in the domestic market, the short - term inventory still has a slight upward trend. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1,650 - 1,700 in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Highlights Summary - **Market Trend**: The domestic urea market continued to decline this week. As of Thursday, the mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized urea particles in Shandong dropped to 1,600 - 1,660 yuan/ton, with the average price down 45 yuan/ton week - on - week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Some idle plants have resumed production, increasing the daily output of domestic urea. Next week, 1 enterprise is expected to stop production, and 5 - 6 idle enterprises will resume production. The domestic agricultural demand is in the off - season, and the reserve demand has not started significantly. The industrial demand improvement is less than expected. The inventory of enterprises varied, but the overall inventory increased. Urea exports continued to accelerate. The short - term inventory still has a slight upward trend [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1,650 - 1,700 in the short term [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - **Price Trend**: This week, the price of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea fluctuated and closed lower, with a weekly decline of 2.92% [9]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of September 12, the UR 1 - 5 spread was - 55 [14]. - **Open Interest Analysis**: No detailed information provided. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 11, there were 8,897 Zhengzhou urea warehouse receipts, an increase of 598 from last week [21]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - **Domestic Spot Price**: As of September 11, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1,660 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; the mainstream price in Jiangsu was 1,650 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton [26]. - **Foreign Spot Price**: As of September 11, the FOB price of urea in China was 415 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars/ton from last week [30]. - **Basis**: As of September 11, the urea basis was - 11 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton from last week [33]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Analysis 3.3.1 Upstream - **Coal and Natural Gas Prices**: As of September 10, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5,500 kcal was 675 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. As of September 11, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 2.92 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.11 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [37]. 3.3.2 Industry - **Capacity Utilization and Output**: As of September 11, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 129.93 tons, an increase of 2.03 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 1.59%. The capacity utilization rate was 79.34%, an increase of 1.24% from the previous period, and the trend changed from decreasing to increasing [40]. - **Inventory**: As of September 11, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 54.94 tons, a decrease of 7.15 tons week - on - week, a decline of 11.52%. As of September 10, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 113.27 tons, an increase of 3.77 tons from last week, a week - on - week increase of 3.44% [43]. - **Exports**: According to customs data, in July 2025, China's urea export volume was 56.72 tons, a month - on - month increase of 756.80% and a year - on - year increase of 614.36% [46]. 3.3.3 Downstream - **Compound Fertilizer and Melamine Operating Rates**: As of September 11, the capacity utilization rate of domestic compound fertilizer plants was 37.82%, a week - on - week increase of 4.68 percentage points. Next week, enterprises will mainly produce based on sales, and the overall operating rate is expected to be adjusted limitedly. As of September 11, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 55.38%, a decrease of 3.6 percentage points from last week [51].