1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The port shows a trend of inventory accumulation, with relatively loose supply. However, steel mills' raw material inventories are generally at medium - low levels. Near the year - end winter storage, there is a certain expectation for buying, and the firm spot prices support the futures price. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to risk control [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract is 777.50 yuan/ton, up 9.50 yuan; the position volume is 518,155 lots, up 29,159 lots. The I 1 - 5 contract spread is 19.5 yuan/ton, down 1.00 yuan. The net position of the top 20 in the I contract is 14,165 lots, up 5,994 lots. The Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipt is 1,300 lots, down 100 lots. The Singapore iron ore main contract is quoted at 104.75 US dollars/ton as of 15:00, up 1.10 US dollars [2] 3.2现货市场 - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port is 854 yuan/dry ton, up 5 yuan; the price of 60.5% Mac fine ore is 849 yuan/dry ton, up 6 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fine ore at Jingtang Port is 758 yuan/dry ton, up 6 yuan. The basis of the I main contract is 72 yuan, down 3 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index is 107.10 US dollars/ton (previous day), up 0.90 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.5% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port is 3.09, unchanged. The estimated import cost is 869 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipping volume is 3,592.50 million tons (weekly), up 224.00 million tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China is 2,928.10 million tons (weekly), up 358.90 million tons. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports is 16,111.47 million tons (weekly), up 120.36 million tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills is 8,834.20 million tons (weekly), down 150.53 million tons. The iron ore import volume is 11,054.00 million tons (monthly), down 77.00 million tons. The available days of iron ore are 21 days (weekly), up 4 days. The daily output of 266 mines is 37.87 million tons (weekly), up 0.07 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines is 60.07%, up 0.05%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines is 44.97 million tons (weekly), up 5.41 million tons. The BDI index is 2,121.00, down 83.00. The iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 24.30 US dollars/ton, down 0.70 US dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao is 10.365 US dollars/ton, down 0.16 US dollars [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 78.61% (weekly), down 1.53%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 85.90% (weekly), down 1.16%. The domestic crude steel output is 6,987 million tons (monthly), down 213 million tons [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 13.51% (daily), up 0.66%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 15.67% (daily), up 0.26%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 15.87% (daily), down 0.09%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 16.32% (daily), up 0.50% [2] 3.6 Industry News - From December 8th to December 14th, the total iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 1,172.0 million tons, a decrease of 23.6 million tons compared with the previous period, showing a slight decline. The current inventory level is slightly lower than the average since the fourth quarter of this year [2] 3.7 Key Points to Watch - The iron ore port inventory in China, the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of steel mills on Friday [2]

数据来源第三方(我的农产品网、中果网、郑商所)，观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎！ 苹果产业日报 2025-12-18 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:苹果(日,元/吨) -54 主力合约持仓量:苹果(日,手) | 9068 | | | 162157 | 19889 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:苹果(日,手) | 2831 | -918 | | | | | 现货市场 | 甘肃静宁苹果现货价格(纸袋75#以上)(日, 山东沂源苹果现货价格(纸袋75#以上)(日, | | | | | 0 | | | | 5.25 | 0 | | 2.6 | | | | 元/斤) 元/斤) 陕西洛川苹果现货价格(纸袋70#以上半 山东烟台栖霞现货价格(纸袋80#以上一 | | | | | | | | | 4.2 | 0 | | 4 | 0 | | 上游情况 | 商品)(日,元/斤) 二级果农货)(日,元/斤) 全国:苹果产量(年,万吨) ...

棉花(纱)产业日报 2025-12-18 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑棉主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 13960 | 35 棉纱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 20045 | -40 | | | 棉花期货前20名净持仓(手) | -143303 | 5696 棉纱期货前20名净持仓(手) | -877 | -39 | | | 主力合约持仓量:棉花(日,手) | 741948 | 10681 主力合约持仓量:棉纱(日,手) | 22824 | 377 | | | 仓单数量:棉花(日,张) 中国棉花价格指数:CCIndex:3128B(日,元 | 3619 | 137 仓单数量:棉纱(日,张) | 9 | 0 | | 现货市场 | /吨) 中国进口棉价格指数:FCIndexM:1%关税( | 15139 12760 | -5 中国纱线价格指数:纯棉普梳纱32支(日, 元/吨) 51 到港价:进口棉纱价格指数:纯棉普梳纱32 | 20880 21065 | 50 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - For the US corn market, it has entered the export peak season with high phased supply pressure, and the global and US corn supply - demand remains relatively loose, suppressing international prices. However, the USDA's downward adjustment of the 2025/26 US corn ending - inventory forecast supports the price [3]. - In the domestic Northeast region, the acquisition of reserve warehouses has increased since December, supporting the market bottom. But high prices limit purchasing enthusiasm, and with rumors of wheat and reserve corn regulation, the supply has increased and prices have fallen [3]. - In the North China and Huang - Huai regions, new - season corn supply is abundant, industry operating rates are rising, and supply - side pressure is increasing. Although the inventory of starch enterprises has increased, holiday备货 may boost demand, and the rise of cassava starch may also increase the demand for corn starch [3]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Corn futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2190 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 monthly spread is - 27 yuan/ton; the open interest of the active contract is 1001351 lots, an increase of 12746 lots; the net long position of the top 20 holders is - 87155 lots, an increase of 9707 lots; the registered warehouse receipts are 53277 lots, a decrease of 1163 lots; the CS - C spread of the main contract is 335 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton [2]. - Corn starch futures: The closing price of the active contract is 2499 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan/ton; the 3 - 5 monthly spread is - 47 yuan/ton; the open interest of the active contract is 104235 lots, a decrease of 27863 lots; the net long position of the top 20 holders is - 30748 lots, an increase of 2763 lots; the registered warehouse receipts are 2500 lots [2]. Outer - market - CBOT corn: The closing price of the active contract is 440.75 cents/bushel, an increase of 4.75 cents; the total open interest is 1616139 contracts, an increase of 13001 contracts; the non - commercial net long position is 120900 contracts, an increase of 77887 contracts [2]. Spot Market - Corn: The average spot price is 2349.61 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.17 yuan/ton; the FOB price at Jinzhou Port is 2290 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the CIF price of imported corn is 2121.58 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.11 yuan/ton; the international freight of imported corn is 50 dollars/ton [2]. - Corn starch: The factory quotes in Changchun, Weifang, and Shijiazhuang are 2570 yuan/ton (a decrease of 20 yuan/ton), 2800 yuan/ton, and 2730 yuan/ton respectively; the basis of the main corn starch contract is 71 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan/ton; the basis of the main corn contract is 159.61 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.83 yuan/ton; the spread between Shandong starch and corn is 466 yuan/ton, an increase of 18 yuan/ton [2]. - Substitute spot prices: The average wheat price is 2516.39 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.39 yuan/ton; the spread between cassava starch and corn starch is 725 yuan/ton, a decrease of 36 yuan/ton; the spread between corn starch and 30 - powder is - 239 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [2]. Upstream Situation - Corn production forecasts: The predicted annual production in the US is 425.53 million tons, a decrease of 1.58 million tons; in Brazil is 131 million tons; in Argentina is 53 million tons; in China is 295 million tons; in Ukraine is 32 million tons [2]. - Sown areas: The predicted sown areas of corn in the US, Brazil, Argentina, and China are 36.44 million hectares (an increase of 0.55 million hectares), 22.6 million hectares, 7.5 million hectares, and 44.3 million hectares respectively [2]. Industry Situation - Corn inventory: The inventory at southern ports is 31.5 tons, a decrease of 20.2 tons; at northern ports is 152 tons, a decrease of 11 tons; the deep - processing corn inventory is 294 tons, an increase of 18.6 tons; the starch enterprise inventory is 107.4 tons, an increase of 2.5 tons [2]. - Import and export: The monthly import volume of corn is 36 tons, an increase of 30 tons; the monthly export volume of corn starch is 19.17 tons, an increase of 6.39 tons [2]. - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2977.9 tons, an increase of 20.9 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Consumption: The weekly consumption of deep - processed corn is 141.67 tons, a decrease of 0.09 tons [2]. - Operating rates: The operating rate of alcohol enterprises is 68.22%, a decrease of 2.06%; the operating rate of starch enterprises is 62.31%, a decrease of 0.53% [2]. - Processing profits: The processing profits of corn starch in Shandong, Hebei, and Jilin are 2 yuan/ton (an increase of 10 yuan/ton), 74 yuan/ton, and - 67 yuan/ton (a decrease of 14 yuan/ton) respectively [2]. Option Market - Corn historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility is 11.7%, a decrease of 0.02%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 9.45% [2]. - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 1.48%, a decrease of 7.11%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 5.17%, a decrease of 3.41% [2]. Industry News - China's corn and corn flour imports in November were 56 tons, a year - on - year increase of 87.5%. The cumulative imports from January to November were 185 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 86.1% [2]

研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 螺纹钢产业链日报 2025/12/18 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,125.00 | +41↑ RB主力合约持仓量(手) | 1575943 | -28786↓ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | 40134 | +13027↑ RB1-5合约价差(元/吨) | 1 | -10↓ | | | RB上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 78665 | +8↑ HC2605-RB2605合约价差(元/吨) | 152 | -9↓ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,320.00 | +20↑ 杭州 HRB400E 20MM(过磅，元/吨) | 3,405 | +21↑ | | | 广州 HRB400E 20MM(理计，元/吨) | 3,510.00 | +20↑ 天津 HRB400E 20 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Thursday's HC2605 contract rebounded with reduced positions. Macroscopically, the Central Financial Office responded to economic hot - spot issues, and expanding domestic demand is the top - priority task for next year. Consumption should be boosted from both supply and demand sides, and consumption and investment should be coordinated. - In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils decreased significantly, with the capacity utilization rate dropping to 74.57%. Terminal demand shrank, and the apparent demand fell below 3 million tons. Overall, the terminal demand for plates declined, but with the rebound of furnace materials and positive macro - expectations, the futures price was supported. - Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are rising. It is recommended for short - term trading with attention to risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - HC main contract closing price: 3,277 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan [2]. - HC main contract position: 1,189,556 lots, down 10,392 lots. - HC contract top 20 net position: 11,975 lots, down 23,488 lots. - HC1 - 5 contract spread: 11 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan. - HC Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt: 131,004 tons, down 300 tons. - HC2605 - RB2605 contract spread: 152 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan [2]. Spot Market - Hangzhou 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. - Guangzhou 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,280 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. - Wuhan 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,330 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Tianjin 4.75 hot - rolled coil: 3,190 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. - HC main contract basis: 13 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan. - Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spread: - 30 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB iron ore fines: 796 yuan/wet ton, up 11 yuan. - Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1,640 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel: 2,160 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Hebei Q235 billet: 2,940 yuan/ton, unchanged. - 45 - port iron ore inventory: 154.2786 million tons, up 1.3152 million tons. - Sample coking plant coke inventory: 499,600 tons, up 55,100 tons. - Sample steel mill coke inventory: 6.3522 million tons, up 99,700 tons. - Hebei billet inventory: 1.1313 million tons, up 14,800 tons [2]. Industry Situation - 247 steel mill blast furnace operating rate: 78.61%, down 1.53 percentage points. - 247 steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 85.9%, down 1.16 percentage points. - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil output: 2.9191 million tons, down 168,000 tons. - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil capacity utilization rate: 74.57%, down 4.29 percentage points. - Sample steel mill hot - rolled coil factory inventory: 834,200 tons, down 6,100 tons. - 33 - city hot - rolled coil social inventory: 3.073 million tons, down 57,600 tons. - Domestic crude steel output: 69.87 million tons, down 2.13 million tons. - Steel net export volume: 9.48 million tons, up 200,000 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Automobile production: 3.5316 million vehicles, up 172,900 vehicles. - Automobile sales: 3.429 million vehicles, up 106,900 vehicles. - Air - conditioner production: 15.026 million units, up 822,000 units. - Household refrigerator production: 9.442 million units, up 654,000 units. - Household washing machine production: 12.013 million units, up 978,000 units [2]. Industry News - On December 18, Mysteel information showed that the actual output of hot - rolled coils this period was 2.9191 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 168,000 tons; factory inventory was 834,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,100 tons; social inventory was 3.073 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 57,600 tons; total inventory was 3.9072 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 63,700 tons; apparent demand was 2.9828 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 136,900 tons. - According to the data of the Passenger Car Association, from December 1st to 14th, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 764,000 vehicles, a 24% year - on - year decrease compared with the same period in December and a 2% increase compared with the same period last month. The cumulative retail sales since the beginning of this year were 22.247 million vehicles, a 5% year - on - year increase [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The near - month imports of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal are restricted, and oil mills are in a shutdown state, but the marginal supply increases with Australian rapeseed arrivals, and the long - term supply is expected to increase. The substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand for rapeseed meal. The rapeseed meal price may remain weak in the short term. [2] - The rapeseed oil market is also under pressure. The import of rapeseed is structurally tightened, and oil mills are mostly shut down, with the inventory in a de - stocking mode. However, the arrival of Australian rapeseed and the expected long - term supply increase, along with the sufficient supply and good substitution advantage of soybean oil, keep the demand for rapeseed oil mainly at a rigid level. The domestic rapeseed oil price is dragged down by the weak international rapeseed market and is expected to be in a weak and volatile state in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures closing prices: The closing price of rapeseed oil (active contract) is 8945 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the closing price of rapeseed meal (active contract) is 2340 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan. The closing price of ICE rapeseed (active) is 609.2 Canadian dollars/ton, down 2.2 Canadian dollars; the closing price of rapeseed (active contract) is 5447 yuan/ton, up 58 yuan. [2] - Spreads and positions: The 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed oil is - 3 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread of rapeseed meal is - 193 yuan/ton, down 64 yuan. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil is - 29391 lots, down 6389 lots; for rapeseed meal, it is - 67175 lots, up 13205 lots. [2] - Warehouse receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 4006 sheets, up 670 sheets; the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts is 0, unchanged. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9500 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2400 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil is 9618.75 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the import cost of rapeseed is 7469.88 yuan/ton, down 28.46 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - Basis and price differences: The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 555 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the basis of the rapeseed meal main contract is 60 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1120 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 1100 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 700 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production and imports: The global rapeseed production forecast is 92.27 million tons, up 1.31 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production is 13446 thousand tons, unchanged. The total rapeseed import volume is 0 tons, down 115300 tons. The import rapeseed crushing profit is 476 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan. [2] - Inventory and operation rate: The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 0.1 million tons, up 0.1 million tons; the weekly operation rate of imported rapeseed is 0%, unchanged. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 140000 tons, down 20000 tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 200 tons, unchanged. The rapeseed oil inventory in East China is 322000 tons, down 17000 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China is 186100 tons, down 7500 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 5500 tons, down 1500 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 248000 tons, up 14000 tons. [2] -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 is 9000 tons, up 9000 tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 is 0 tons, down 4500 tons. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed is 2977900 tons, up 20900 tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil is 427600 tons, down 67400 tons. [2] - Consumption: The monthly social retail sales of catering revenue is 605.7 billion yuan, up 85.8 billion yuan. [2] 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 16.25%, up 0.27%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal is 16.33%, up 0.35%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 14.94%, up 0.89%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil is 14.94%, up 0.89%. [2] - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 11.57%, up 0.65%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 12.12%, up 0.23%. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 13.07%, up 0.49%; the 60 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 14.09%, up 0.09%. [2] 3.7 Industry News - On December 17 (Wednesday), ICE rapeseed futures fell again. The most actively traded March rapeseed futures contract fell 2.80 Canadian dollars, with a settlement price of 608.50 Canadian dollars per ton. [2] - During the US soybean export season, the supply is temporarily abundant, and Brazil has a high expected soybean yield. The US faces competition from cheaper Brazilian soybeans in the global export market. China's soybean purchases have slowed down recently, and the market is concerned about China's purchases of US soybeans. [2] - The Canadian Agricultural and Agri - Food Department (AAFC) raised the forecast of Canada's rapeseed ending inventory for the 2025/26 season by 450000 tons to 2950000 tons, higher than 1597000 tons in the previous year. [2] - The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is expected to finalize the mandatory biofuel blending regulations for 2026 and 2027 in the first quarter of next year. The high - frequency data shows that the exports of Malaysian palm oil from December 1 - 15 are still declining, and the inventory pressure will remain high in the short term. [2]

| | | 贵金属期货日报 | | | | 2025/12/18 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） | 980.500 | 0.8↑ 沪银主力合约收盘价（日，元/千克） | 15521 | +9.00↑ | | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 196,733.00 | -372.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 17,974.00 | -318.00↓ | | | | 主力合约成交量:沪金 | 241,109.00 | -34780.00↓ 主力合约成交量:沪银 | 1,571,738.00 | -55330.00↓ | | | | 仓单数量:沪金(日,千克) | 91716 | -6↓ 仓单数量:沪银(日,千克) | 912,164 | 240↑ | | | 现货市场 | 上金所黄金现货价 | 975.55 | 2.84↑ 华通一号白银现货价 | 15,380.00 | 190.00↑ | ...

Report Summary - **Report Date**: December 18, 2025 [1] - **Report Type**: Egg Industry Daily Report 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The market is in a state of game between weak reality and strong expectations The short - term near - month contracts may be in a wide - range震荡 state, and investors can try to go long on far - month contracts with a light position [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The futures closing price of the active egg contract is 2,916 yuan/500 kilograms, down 176 yuan; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of eggs is - 43,866 lots, down 3,865 lots [2] - The egg futures monthly spread (5 - 9) is - 473 yuan/500 kilograms, down 28 yuan; the futures trading volume of the active egg contract is 179,290 lots, up 102,924 lots [2] - The registered warehouse receipt volume of eggs is 0 lots, with no change [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of eggs is 3.19 yuan/jin, up 0.1 yuan; the basis (spot - futures) is 272 yuan/500 kilograms, up 276 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The laying hen inventory index nationwide is 114.24 (with 2015 = 100), down 1.02; the culled laying hen index nationwide is 114.44 (with 2015 = 100), down 10.19 [2] - The average price of laying hen chicks in the main producing areas is 2.8 yuan/chick, down 0.05 yuan; the new chick index nationwide is 67.09 (with 2015 = 100), down 9.56 [2] - The average price of laying hen compound feed is 2.8 yuan/kg, up 0.04 yuan; the breeding profit of laying hens is - 0.36 yuan/hen, down 0.06 yuan [2] - The average price of culled chickens in the main producing areas is 7.94 yuan/kg, up 0.22 yuan; the culling age of chickens nationwide is 510 days, up 3 days [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The average wholesale price of pork is 17.51 yuan/kg, up 0.08 yuan; the average wholesale price of 28 key - monitored vegetables is 5.9 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan [2] - The average wholesale price of white - striped chickens is 17.82 yuan/kg, with no change; the weekly inventory in the circulation link is 1.1 days, down 0.04 days [2] - The weekly inventory in the production link is 1.01 days, down 0.05 days; the monthly export volume of fresh eggs is 13,394.53 tons, up 178.74 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly consumption of eggs in the sales areas is 7,127 tons, up 12 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - The average price of eggs in Shandong, the main producing area, is 6.15 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday; the average price of eggs in Hebei is 5.86 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan from yesterday; the average price of eggs in Guangdong is 6.53 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday; the average price of eggs in Beijing is 6.40 yuan/kg, unchanged from yesterday [2] - Continuous losses in the breeding end have led to a decline in the enthusiasm for replenishment and an increase in the culling of old hens. The laying hen inventory has declined slightly, and the market sentiment has improved slightly [2] 3.7 Key Points of Attention - There is no news today [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - Recent sharp increases in platinum and palladium prices are driven by spot shortages and arbitrage trading. Platinum may see continued price support in the medium - to - long term due to Fed easing expectations, a persistent supply - demand structural deficit, and expanding long - term demand expectations from the hydrogen economy. Palladium's demand outlook is weakening as its market shifts from supply shortage to surplus, but dovish sentiment from rate - cut expectations may support prices, and its low price could make it a cost - effective option. The parabolic rise in platinum and palladium prices on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange may increase short - term correction risks due to the upward repair demand of the basis. [2] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Platinum's main contract closing price is 542.60 yuan/gram (up 27.40), and the main contract position is 10387.00 hands (down 277.00). Palladium's main contract closing price is 476.60 yuan/gram (up 31.15), and the main contract position is 3179.00 hands (up 90.00). [2] 现货 Market - The Shanghai Gold Exchange's platinum spot price (Pt9995) is 511.65 yuan/gram (up 13.76), and the Yangtze River palladium spot price is 390.00 yuan/gram (down 3.00). The platinum main contract basis is - 13.64 yuan/gram (down), and the palladium main contract basis is - 86.60 yuan/gram (down 34.15). Platinum CFTC non - commercial long positions decreased by 243.00 contracts weekly, and palladium's decreased by 342.00 contracts. [2] Supply - Demand Situation - In 2025, the total platinum supply is expected to decrease by 0.80 tons, and the total demand is expected to increase by 25.60 tons. The total palladium supply is expected to be 220.40 tons (down 5.00 tons), and the total demand is expected to be 261.60 tons (down 27.00 tons). [2] Macro Data - The US dollar index is 98.22 (down 0.06), the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 1.92% (down 0.01%), and the VIX volatility index is 16.48 (down 0.02). US economic data shows mixed performance, with the unemployment rate rising, retail sales having different trends, and PMI values falling. The US Treasury Secretary is optimistic about the economic outlook, expecting 3.5% GDP growth in 2025 and indicating that Trump will announce the Fed Chair candidate in early January. [2] Industry News - The palladium main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange hit the daily limit again, and the platinum main contract continued its upward momentum. Price increases are due to spot shortages and arbitrage trading. [2] Key Attention Points - Key US economic data to be released include the core CPI month - on - month on 12 - 18 at 21:30, the PCE price index month - on - month on 12 - 19 at 21:30, and the University of Michigan's 1 - year inflation rate expectation on 12 - 19 at 23:00. [2] Price Range - For London platinum spot, the upper resistance level is 2000 dollars/ounce, and the lower support level is 1800 dollars/ounce. For London palladium spot, the upper resistance level is 1750 dollars/ounce, and the lower support level is 1500 dollars/ounce. [2]