Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - This week, the bullish sentiment in the natural rubber market gradually weakened, and rubber prices corrected from high levels. The offer price of imported rubber rose and then fell, with the overall price center shifting down compared to the previous week. The downstream procurement enthusiasm for domestic natural rubber significantly increased, and the overall trading atmosphere in the market warmed up [9]. - Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. In Yunnan, the supply is gradually increasing, and the raw material purchase price remains firm. In Hainan, local rainfall has affected tapping operations, slowing the seasonal increase in new rubber supply [9]. - Recently, the inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to decline, and the decline rate has widened compared to the previous period. However, as tire manufacturers' risk - aversion sentiment towards high prices rises, the decline rate of general trade inventory may narrow [9]. - This week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has significantly increased. Most enterprises are expected to maintain the current production schedule next week to stock up inventory around the "National Day" and make up for previous order gaps [9]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,700 - 16,300 in the short - term, and the nr2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,350 - 13,000 [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Highlights - **Market Review**: The bullish sentiment in the natural rubber market weakened, and rubber prices corrected from high levels. Imported rubber prices rose and then fell, while domestic rubber trading warmed up [9]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply in Yunnan is increasing, and in Hainan, rainfall affects tapping. Qingdao Port inventory is decreasing, but the decline in general trade inventory may narrow. Tire enterprise capacity utilization has increased and is expected to fluctuate slightly [9]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15,700 - 16,300, and the nr2511 contract between 12,350 - 13,000 [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - **Price Trend**: The main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures fell by 3.09% this week, and the 20 - rubber main contract price fell by 4.42% [14]. - **Spread**: As of September 11, the spread between Shanghai rubber 1 - 5 was - 40, and the spread between 20 - rubber 10 - 11 was - 55 [24]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 11, Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts were 152,940 tons, a decrease of 9,290 tons from the previous week; 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 46,771 tons, an increase of 202 tons from the previous week [29]. - **Spot Market** - **Price**: As of September 11, the state - owned full - latex was reported at 15,050 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [33]. - **Basis**: As of September 11, the 20 - rubber basis was 629 yuan/ton, an increase of 238 yuan/ton from the previous week; the non - standard basis was - 905 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan/ton from the previous week [41]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Upstream** - **Thailand**: As of September 11, the field glue price in Thailand was 56.2 (+0.4) Thai baht/kg, and the cup - lump price was 52.2 (+0.15) Thai baht/kg. As of September 12, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was - 17 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 31.4 US dollars/ton from the previous week [44]. - **Domestic**: As of September 11, the glue price in Yunnan was 14,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous week; the fresh latex price in Hainan was 14,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous week [47]. - **Import**: In July 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 474,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.91%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume was 3.6005 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21.82% [50]. - **Inventory**: As of September 7, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 592,300 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous period, a decline of 1.66% [54]. - **Downstream** - **Tire Capacity Utilization**: As of September 11, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.61%, a month - on - month increase of 5.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.31 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.31%, a month - on - month increase of 5.57 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.23 percentage points [58]. - **Tire Exports**: In July 2025, China's tire exports were 812,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to July, the cumulative export volume was 4.9339 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.18% [61]. - **Domestic Demand**: In August 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 1% and a year - on - year increase of about 35%. From January to August, the cumulative sales volume was close to 710,000 vehicles [64]. 3.4 Options Market Analysis No information about the options market analysis is provided in the report.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market in China dropped from a high level, with the spot price ranging from 11,500 to 11,900 yuan/ton. The mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis butadiene rubber in China was between 11,900 and 12,000 yuan/ton as of September 11, 2025 [7]. - The supply of cis - butadiene rubber was sufficient this week. Although some private production plants stopped for maintenance, the inventory of producers and traders increased. Next week, the reduction in supply will gradually appear, and the inventory may decline slightly. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises increased significantly this week and is expected to fluctuate slightly next week [7]. - The short - term price of the br2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,400 and 12,000 yuan [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market dropped from a high level, and the price of high - cis butadiene rubber of major sales companies was reduced by 200 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Supply reduction will be gradually reflected next week. After the price cuts of cis - butadiene rubber and butadiene, the spot price may drive some downstream enterprises to stock up, and the inventory may decline slightly. The capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises is expected to maintain the current level with slight fluctuations [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The br2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,400 and 12,000 yuan in the short term [7]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Trend**: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract fluctuated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 5.2% [11]. - **Position Analysis**: No detailed analysis content provided. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of September 11, the spread between the 10 - and 11 - month contracts of butadiene rubber was 30 [17]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 11, the warehouse receipts of cis - butadiene rubber were 2,970 tons, an increase of 200 tons from last week [20]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Price and Basis**: As of September 11, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 11,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from last week. The basis of butadiene rubber was 95 yuan/ton, an increase of 355 yuan/ton from last week [24]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - **Raw Material Prices**: As of September 11, the CFR intermediate price of naphtha in Japan was 604 US dollars/ton, an increase of 7.75 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF intermediate price of ethylene in Northeast Asia was 840 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [27]. - **Butadiene Capacity Utilization and Inventory**: As of September 12, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 68.33%, a decrease of 0.12% from last week; the port inventory was 25,600 tons, a decrease of 5,350 tons from last week [30]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: In August 2025, the domestic production of cis - butadiene rubber was 135,700 tons, an increase of 16,500 tons from the previous month. As of September 11, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 73.48%, a decrease of 2.68% from last week [33]. - **Production Profit**: As of September 11, the production profit of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was - 509 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47 yuan/ton from last week [36]. - **Inventory**: As of September 12, the social inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 34,510 tons, an increase of 2,600 tons from last week; the producer inventory was 26,300 tons, an increase of 1,650 tons from last week; the trader inventory was 8,210 tons, an increase of 950 tons from last week [40]. 3.6 Downstream Situation - **Tire Capacity Utilization**: As of September 11, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.61%, a month - on - month increase of 5.69 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.31 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.31%, a month - on - month increase of 5.57 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 4.23 percentage points [43]. - **Tire Exports**: In July 2025, China's tire exports were 812,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.87% and a year - on - year increase of 11.48%. From January to July, the cumulative tire exports were 4,933,900 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.18% [47].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1671 | 2 郑州尿素1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -48 | 2 -5085 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 292643 | 9294 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -47564 | | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 8897 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1710 | 0 河南(日,元/吨) | 1670 | -10 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1650 | -20 山东(日,元/吨) | 1660 | -10 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1660 | -10 郑州尿素主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -11 | -12 | | | FOB波罗的海(日,美元/吨) | 400 | 0 FOB中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 415 | 0 | | 产业情况 | 港口库存(周,万吨) | 62.09 | 2.09 企业 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of domestic butadiene rubber is sufficient. Although there are some production device overhauls, the production has recovered and increased. Next week, the reduction in supply will gradually be reflected, and the spot offer may decline after the price cut of butadiene rubber and butadiene, which may drive some downstream stocking. The inventory of producers and traders may slightly decrease. In terms of demand, the overall capacity utilization rate will increase as the production scheduling of overhaul enterprises gradually resumes this week, but the increase may be limited due to the production control plan of some enterprises. The short - term forecast range of the br2511 contract is between 11,600 - 12,300 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 11,655 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the position of the main contract is 22,243 lots, down 1,100 lots; the 10 - 11 spread of synthetic rubber is 30 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the total number of warehouse receipts of butadiene rubber in the warehouse is 2,970 tons, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,850 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,800 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 11,900 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 11,800 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. The basis of synthetic rubber is 145 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. Brent crude oil is 67.49 US dollars/barrel, up 1.1 US dollars; WTI crude oil is 63.67 US dollars/barrel, up 1.04 US dollars. The price of naphtha CFR Japan is 603.25 US dollars/ton, up 6 US dollars; the price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 840 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,095 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price of butadiene in Shandong market is 9,475 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 15.12 million tons/week, up 0.01 million tons; the capacity utilization rate is 68.45%, up 0.54 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 30,950 tons, up 6,950 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 50.1%, up 0.53 percentage points. The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 13.57 million tons, up 0.65 million tons; the capacity utilization rate is 76.16%, up 0.31 percentage points. The production profit of butadiene rubber is - 462 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan; the social inventory is 3.19 million tons, up 0.02 million tons; the producer inventory is 24,650 tons, down 450 tons; the trader inventory is 7,260 tons, up 640 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 67.47%, down 5.3 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 59.78%, down 4.06 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.03 million pieces, up 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.06 million pieces, up 1.09 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong is 38.88 days, down 0.34 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 45.85 days, down 0.29 days [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of September 11, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises is 34,500 tons, up 2,600 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 8.15%. As of September 4, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 66.92%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.05 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 12.98 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises is 60.74%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.15 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 1.12 percentage points. Some enterprises in Dongying have 3 - 4 days of overhaul plans, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. In August 2025, the output of Chinese butadiene rubber is 13.57 million tons, up 0.65 million tons from last month, a month - on - month increase of 5.02% and a year - on - year increase of 30.73% [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. Supply in Yunnan is increasing, while in Hainan, rainfall has disrupted tapping and slowed the seasonal increase in raw materials. Some factories are competing to buy raw materials, and the purchase price of latex has been raised. Recently, the inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to decline, and the destocking rate has increased month - on - month. However, the destocking rate of general trade inventory may narrow. In terms of demand, the overall capacity utilization rate will increase this week as some enterprises resume production after maintenance, but the increase in production may be limited due to some enterprises' production control plans. The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15,800 - 16,500 yuan/ton in the short - term, and the nr2511 contract is expected to fluctuate between 12,550 - 13,200 yuan/ton in the short - term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract was 15,905 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 12,620 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan. - The spread between Shanghai rubber 1 - 5 was - 40 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the spread between 20 - number rubber 10 - 11 was - 55 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber was 3,285 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. - The positions of the main Shanghai rubber contract were 150,967 lots, up 372 lots; the positions of the main 20 - number rubber contract were 73,296 lots, up 1,326 lots. - The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber were - 30,105 lots, up 1,015 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber were - 15,223 lots, down 156 lots. - Shanghai rubber exchange warehouse receipts were 152,940 tons, down 2,310 tons; 20 - number rubber exchange warehouse receipts were 46,771 tons, down 907 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,900 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market was 15,200 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. - The price of Thai standard STR20 was 1,865 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 was 1,865 US dollars/ton, unchanged. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber was 15,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber was 14,950 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 was 12,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 was 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The basis of Shanghai rubber was - 1,005 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the basis of the non - standard product of the main Shanghai rubber contract was - 980 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market was 13,253 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract was 633 yuan/ton, up 136 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber was 60.98 Thai baht/kg, down 0.12 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber was 58.3 Thai baht/kg, down 0.15 Thai baht. - The market reference price of latex of Thai raw rubber was 56 Thai baht/kg, unchanged; the market reference price of cup lump of Thai raw rubber was 52.55 Thai baht/kg, down 0.4 Thai baht. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 was 211.2 US dollars/ton, down 16.2 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 was 14.4 US dollars/ton, down 21.4 US dollars. - The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber was 121,900 tons, up 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber was 259,500 tons, down 21,300 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 59.78%, down 4.06 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 67.47%, down 5.3 percentage points. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 38.88 days, down 0.34 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period were 45.85 days, down 0.29 days. - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.03 million pieces, up 280,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58.06 million pieces, up 1.09 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The historical 20 - day volatility of the underlying was 14.97%, down 0.24 percentage points; the historical 40 - day volatility of the underlying was 18.46%, up 0.12 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 22.51%, up 0.41 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 22.51%, up 0.41 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - As of September 7, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 592,300 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from the previous period, a decline of 1.66%. The bonded area inventory was 72,300 tons, a decline of 1.24%; the general trade inventory was 520,000 tons, a decline of 1.72%. The inbound rate of bonded warehouses increased by 0.95 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 1.79 percentage points; the inbound rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 0.6 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.39 percentage points. - As of September 4, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.92%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.05 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 12.98 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.74%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.15 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 1.12 percentage points. Some enterprises in Dongying had a 3 - 4 - day maintenance plan, which dragged down the overall capacity utilization rate [2]. 3.7 Suggestion Pay attention to the operating rate data of Longzhong tire sample enterprises on Thursday [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - On Thursday, the HC2601 contract traded within a range. Mexico is seeking to raise the tariff rate on Asian - made cars by up to 50%. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of hot - rolled coils increased after a decline, with a capacity utilization rate of 83.06%. Inventory decreased slightly, and apparent demand increased significantly. Overall, the terminal demand for hot - rolled coils is fairly resilient, with both year - on - year and month - on - month increases in apparent demand, but tariff disruptions have affected market investment sentiment. Technically, for the HC2601 contract, the 1 - hour MACD indicator shows that DIFF and DEA are above the 0 - axis, with the green bar expanding. Short - term trading is recommended, with attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract was 3,334 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan; the trading volume was 1,323,310 lots, up 9,651 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the HC contract was - 113,934 lots, down 7,049 lots. The HC10 - 1 contract spread was 38 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan. The HC Futures Exchange's daily warehouse receipt was 59,441 tons, up 34,382 tons. The HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread was 242 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan [2] Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou was 3,410 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangzhou it was 3,370 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Wuhan it was 3,430 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Tianjin it was 3,320 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the HC main contract was 76 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan. The price difference between Hangzhou hot - rolled coils and rebar was 170 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port was 801 yuan/wet ton, up 3 yuan. The market price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,590 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,290 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Hebei Q235 billets was 2,990 yuan/ton, unchanged. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 138.2532 million tons, up 623,000 tons. The inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 406,600 tons, up 9,500 tons. The inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 6.2354 million tons, up 134,200 tons. The inventory of Hebei billets was 1.2895 million tons, down 75,800 tons [2] Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 80.38%, down 2.80 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 85.77%, down 4.23 percentage points. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills was 3.2514 million tons, up 109,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate was 83.06%, up 2.79 percentage points. The factory inventory of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills was 808,800 tons, up 9,000 tons. The social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities was 2.9244 million tons, down 19,200 tons. The monthly output of domestic crude steel was 79.66 million tons, down 3.53 million tons. The monthly net export volume of steel was 9.01 million tons, down 380,000 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles was 2.5911 million vehicles, down 203,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume was 2.5934 million vehicles, down 311,100 vehicles. The monthly output of air conditioners was 20.5965 million units, down 7.7866 million units. The monthly output of household refrigerators was 8.7307 million units, down 316,800 units. The monthly output of household washing machines was 8.7743 million units, down 733,600 units [2] Industry News - On September 11, Mysteel information showed that the actual output of hot - rolled coils this period was 3.2514 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 109,000 tons; the factory inventory was 808,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9,000 tons; the social inventory was 2.9244 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 19,200 tons; the total inventory was 3.7332 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,200 tons; the apparent demand was 3.2616 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 208,000 tons. Mexico's Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard said the country is seeking to raise the tariff rate on Asian - made cars by up to 50% to protect about 320,000 jobs [2]

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:红枣(日,元/吨) | 11225 | 190 主力合约持仓量:红枣(日,手) | 137721 | 6880 | | | 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:红枣(日,手) | -4067 | 3027 仓单数量:红枣(日,张) | 9194 | -131 | | | 有效仓单预报:红枣:小计(日,张) | 93 | 42 | | | | 现货市场 | 喀什红枣统货价格(日,元/公斤) | 6 | 0 河北一级灰枣批发价格(日,元/斤) | 4.75 | 0 | | | 阿拉尔红枣统货价格(日,元/公斤) | 5.2 | 0 河南一级灰枣批发价格(日,元/斤) | 4.75 | 0 | | | 阿克苏红枣统货价格(日,单位:元/公斤) | 4.8 | 0 河南红枣特级价格(元/公斤) | 10.5 | 0 | | | 河北红枣特级价格(元/公斤) | 10.37 | 0.02 广东红枣特级价格(日,元/公斤) | 11.7 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic methanol port inventory continued to accumulate significantly this week. With the support of reverse flow, contract shipments, and terminal restocking, the pick - up at the mainstream storage areas along the river was good, but the inventory still increased under the supply replenishment. The import apparent demand is expected to be stable next week, and the port methanol inventory is expected to continue the accumulation rhythm, with the specific accumulation amplitude depending on the unloading speed of foreign vessels. The shutdown of the Qinghai Salt Lake olefin plant led to a decline in the domestic methanol - to - olefin operating rate. After the expected restart of Shenhua Xinjiang and the continued shutdown of the Qinghai Salt Lake olefin plant next week, the industry operating rate is expected to rise. The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2360 - 2440 in the short term [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2387 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread of methanol was - 3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest of methanol was 775,400 lots, an increase of 19,434 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of methanol was - 118,150 lots, a decrease of 9,662 lots. The number of warehouse receipts for methanol was 14,979, an increase of 460 [3] 现货市场 - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2275 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia was 2122.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton. The price difference between East China and Northwest China was 152.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract was - 112 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton. The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port was 264 US dollars/ton, an increase of 2 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 326 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars/ton. The FOB price in Rotterdam was 295 euros/ton, a decrease of 2 euros/ton; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was - 62 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton [3] Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.03 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.07 US dollars [3] Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports was 108.95 tons, an increase of 8.72 tons; the inventory at South China ports was 46.08 tons, an increase of 3.54 tons. The methanol import profit was 12.29 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.07 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume was 110.27 tons, a decrease of 11.75 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises was 342,600 tons, an increase of 1500 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises was 84.84%, unchanged [3] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde was 37.73%, a decrease of 4.31 percentage points; the operating rate of dimethyl ether was 4.83%, a decrease of 2.19 percentage points. The operating rate of acetic acid was 84.24%, a decrease of 1 percentage point; the operating rate of MTBE was 62.22%, a decrease of 1.32 percentage points. The operating rate of olefins was 84.72%, a decrease of 0.63 percentage points; the methanol - to - olefin on - disk profit was - 1022 yuan/ton, an increase of 51 yuan/ton [3] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 12.63%, a decrease of 1.14 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of methanol was 18.07%, an increase of 0.11 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol was 15.57%, an increase of 0.27 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for methanol was 15.57%, an increase of 0.27 percentage points [3] Industry News - As of September 10, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 34.26 tons, a decrease of 0.45 tons or 1.31% from the previous period; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 25.07 tons, an increase of 0.94 tons or 3.91% from the previous period. As of September 10, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 155.03 tons, an increase of 12.26 tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China increased by 8.72 tons, and the inventory in South China increased by 3.54 tons. As of September 11, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 82.66%, a decrease of 3.16% from the previous period [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The ICE canola futures closed higher on September 10 but remained near the bottom of the downtrend since late June. The good weather and high excellent rate in the US soybean - producing areas bring supply - side pressure, but the unexpected reduction in planting area supports the price. The market focuses on the USDA report this month, which is expected to lower the US soybean yield per acre. [2] - For rapeseed meal, the shortage of near - month rapeseed arrivals in China reduces supply pressure, and the seasonal increase in aquaculture demand boosts its consumption. However, the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation. The temporary anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed also affect the supply and price. [2] - For rapeseed oil, the terminal consumption boost from the start of school is limited, and the domestic vegetable oil supply - demand is still loose, which restricts short - term prices. But the low oil - mill operating rate and fewer near - month rapeseed purchases reduce supply pressure. The extension of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed also restricts purchases. The market is volatile due to international trade relations, and short - term participation is recommended. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures prices: The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil was 9893 yuan/ton, up 123 yuan; that of rapeseed meal was 2567 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan. The closing price of the active ICE canola futures was 628.2 Canadian dollars/ton, up 9.8 Canadian dollars. [2] - Spreads: The rapeseed oil month - to - month spread (1 - 5) was 346 yuan/ton, up 57 yuan; the rapeseed meal month - to - month spread (1 - 5) was 147 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan. [2] - Positions: The main - contract positions of rapeseed oil were 286194 lots, up 31047 lots; those of rapeseed meal were 407316 lots, up 20610 lots. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil were 18355 lots, up 12961 lots; for rapeseed meal, it was - 5220 lots, up 9 lots. [2] - Warehouse receipts: The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts was 6953; that of rapeseed meal was 9.8. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9940 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; that of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2630 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of rapeseed oil was 10005 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan. The import cost of rapeseed was 7810.05 yuan/ton, up 75.88 yuan. [2] - Price differences: The oil - meal ratio was 3.71, up 0.01. The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract was 47 yuan/ton, down 93 yuan; that of rapeseed meal was 63 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1410 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 720 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 400 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production: The global rapeseed production forecast was 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production was 12378 thousand tons, unchanged. [2] - Imports: The total rapeseed import volume in the current month was 17.6 million tons, down 0.85 million tons. The import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil in the current month was 15 million tons, up 4 million tons; that of rapeseed meal was 27.03 million tons, up 7.56 million tons. [2] - Inventory and operating rate: The total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 10 million tons, unchanged. The weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed was 13.06%, up 1.07 percentage points. The import rapeseed crushing profit was 858 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Inventory: The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 9.7 million tons, down 0.7 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 1.8 million tons, down 0.7 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in East China was 53.2 million tons, down 2.2 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory was 31.51 million tons, up 0.65 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi was 4.55 million tons, down 0.3 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China was 21.3 million tons, up 1.3 million tons. [2] -提货量: The weekly rapeseed oil提货量 was 3.03 million tons, up 0.77 million tons; the weekly rapeseed meal提货量 was 2.74 million tons, down 0.15 million tons. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - Production: The monthly production of feed was 2827.3 million tons, down 110.4 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil was 476.9 million tons, up 41.8 million tons. [2] - Consumption: The monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 4504.1 billion yuan, down 203.5 billion yuan. [2] 3.6 Option Market - Implied volatility: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 18.18%, down 1.16 percentage points; that of put options was 18.19%, down 1.16 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 13.01%, down 0.74 percentage points; that of put options was 13.03%, down 0.7 percentage points. [2] - Historical volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal was 18.15%, down 2.13 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility was 22.1%, up 0.12 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil was 8.26%, down 3.65 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility was 13.01%, unchanged. [2] 3.7 Industry News - ICE canola futures closed higher on September 10 but remained near the bottom of the downtrend since late June. The 11 - month contract rose 8.40 Canadian dollars to 628.10 Canadian dollars/ton, and the 1 - month contract rose 10.70 Canadian dollars to 640.70 Canadian dollars/ton. [2] - The good weather in the US soybean - producing areas and high excellent rate bring supply - side pressure, but the unexpected reduction in planting area supports the price. The market focuses on the USDA report this month, which is expected to lower the US soybean yield per acre. [2] - The US senator tried to stop the Trump administration from adjusting the renewable fuel obligation policy, which led to the decline of US soybean oil futures and affected the domestic vegetable oil market sentiment. [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report On Thursday, the RB2601 contract decreased with increasing positions. Macroscopically, multiple ministries and commissions revealed the key points of next - stage work, promoting capacity governance in key industries and implementing policies to resolve structural contradictions in key industries and promote quality improvement and upgrading. They will make full use of a more proactive fiscal policy to support employment and foreign trade and foster new growth drivers. In terms of supply - demand, the weekly output of rebar continued to decline but was higher than the same period last year; inventory increased for seven consecutive weeks, and apparent demand continued to fall. Overall, market sentiment was low, terminal demand was average, the increase in short positions of mainstream holdings was greater, and the futures price center shifted down. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2601 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were running below the 0 axis. The operation strategy is to be bearish in a volatile market, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs a. Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,092.00 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan; the position volume was 2,000,701 lots, up 133,027 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 266,935 lots, down 65,611 lots; the RB10 - 1 contract spread was - 53 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; the RB Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt was 251,365 tons, up 8,525 tons; the HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread was 242 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan [2]. b. Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,240.00 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; (actual weight) was 3,323 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,280.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,210.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the RB main contract was 148.00 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Hangzhou was 170.00 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. c. Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fine ore at Qingdao Port was 801.00 yuan/wet ton, up 3.00 yuan; the price of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke in Hebei was 1,590.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,290.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,990.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 138.2532 million tons, up 623,000 tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 406,600 tons, up 9,500 tons; the inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 6.2354 million tons, up 134,200 tons; the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 80.38%, down 4.23 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 85.77%, down 7.58 percentage points; the inventory of billets in Tangshan was 1.2895 million tons, down 28,000 tons [2]. d. Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar at sample steel mills was 2.1193 million tons, down 67,500 tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar at sample steel mills was 46.46%, down 1.48 percentage points; the inventory of rebar at sample steel mills was 1.6663 million tons, down 47,100 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 4.8723 million tons, up 185,700 tons; the operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 69.79%, down 1.04 percentage points; the monthly output of crude steel in China was 79.66 million tons, down 3.53 million tons; the monthly output of rebar in China was 1.658 million tons, up 140,000 tons; the net export volume of steel was 9.01 million tons, down 380,000 tons [2]. e. Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index was 93.34, down 0.25; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion was 1.60%, down 1.20 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment completion was - 12.00%, down 0.80 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment was 3.20%, down 1.40 percentage points; the cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.38731 billion square meters, down 54.1 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 352.06 million square meters, down 48.42 million square meters; the inventory of commercial housing for sale was 405.36 million square meters, up 2.85 million square meters [2]. f. Industry News - On September 11, Mysteel information showed that the actual output of rebar in this period was 2.1193 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 67,500 tons; the mill inventory was 1.6663 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 47,100 tons; the social inventory was 4.8723 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 185,700 tons; the total inventory was 6.5386 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 138,600 tons; the apparent demand was 1.9807 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 40,000 tons. As of September 10, according to Mysteel statistics, the total sales of 16 key real - estate enterprises from January to August 2025 were 868.862 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17%; the sales in August were 106.451 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 4.5% and a month - on - month increase of 20.2% [2].