1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn futures continued to decline this week. The closing price of the main 2603 contract was 2,192 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41 yuan/ton from last week. The US corn is in the peak export season with high short - term supply pressure, but the reduction of the US corn ending stocks forecast by USDA supports the price. In China, the purchase of reserve depots in the Northeast has increased, but high prices limit the purchasing enthusiasm of grain - using enterprises. The rumor of wheat and reserve corn regulation and release has led to the release of grain sources, causing the price to decline. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, the rising temperature stimulates the willingness of grain holders to sell. Feed enterprises have low willingness to replenish stocks, and deep - processing enterprises have limited ability to accept high - priced corn. It is recommended to wait and see for now [6]. - Dalian corn starch futures fluctuated and closed down. The closing price of the main 2603 contract was 2,492 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan/ton from last week. With the increase in the listing volume of new - season corn, the supply of raw material corn is abundant, and the industry operating rate has continued to rise, increasing the supply - side pressure. As of December 17, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.074 million tons, an increase of 25,000 tons from last week. However, the stocking before New Year's Day and the Spring Festival may boost the downstream demand, and some downstream customers have repurchased corn starch due to the large increase in tapioca starch prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Week - to - Week Summary 3.1.1. Corn - **Market Review**: The main 2603 contract of corn futures closed at 2,192 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan/ton from last week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: US corn is in the export peak season with high supply pressure, but the reduction of ending stocks forecast by USDA supports the price. In China, Northeast reserve depots' increased purchase supports the market bottom, but high prices limit demand. Rumors and rising temperature in North China and Huanghuai regions lead to increased supply and price decline. It is recommended to wait and see [6]. 3.1.2. Corn Starch - **Market Review**: The main 2603 contract of corn starch futures closed at 2,492 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton from last week [8]. - **Market Outlook**: Abundant raw material supply and rising operating rate increase supply - side pressure, with inventory rising. However, pre - holiday stocking and tapioca starch price increase may boost demand. It is recommended to wait and see [8]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1. Futures Price and Position Changes - The 3 - month contract of corn futures continued to decline, with a total position of 1,004,517 lots, an increase of 67,310 lots from last week. The 3 - month contract of corn starch futures also continued to decline, with a total position of 141,225 lots, an increase of 32,215 lots from last week [15]. 3.2.2. Top 20 Net Position Changes - The top 20 net position of corn futures was - 82,982, compared with - 111,571 last week, with a decrease in net short positions. The top 20 net position of starch futures was - 28,994, compared with - 37,848 last week, with a slight decrease in net short positions [21]. 3.2.3. Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 52,650 lots, and the registered warehouse receipts of corn starch were 2,500 lots [27]. 3.2.4. Spot Price and Basis - As of December 18, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2,349.61 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active 3 - month contract of corn and the spot average price was + 157 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2,700 yuan/ton, and in Shandong was 2,800 yuan/ton. The basis between the 3 - month contract of corn starch and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was 208 yuan/ton [32][36]. 3.2.5. Futures Inter - month Spread - The 3 - 5 spread of corn was - 36 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 3 - 5 spread of starch was - 47 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period [41]. 3.2.6. Futures Spread between Starch and Corn - The spread between the 3 - month contract of starch and corn was 300 yuan/ton. As of Thursday this week, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 410 yuan/ton, a decrease of 56 yuan/ton compared with last week [51]. 3.2.7. Substitute Spread - As of December 18, 2025, the average spot price of wheat was 2,516.39 yuan/ton, and the average spot price of corn was 2,349.61 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 166.78 yuan/ton. In the 51st week of 2025, the average spread between tapioca starch and corn starch was 712 yuan/ton, a narrowing of 13 yuan/ton compared with last week [55]. 3.3. Industrial Chain Situation 3.3.1. Corn - **Supply Side** - As of December 12, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 191,000 tons, an increase of 125,000 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory was 262,000 tons, an increase of 13,000 tons from last week. The total corn inventory in the four northern ports was 1.792 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 261,000 tons; the shipping volume from the four northern ports was 684,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 124,000 tons [45]. - As of December 18, the total sales progress of corn in the main producing areas was 42%, an increase of 2 percentage points from last week and 4 percentage points from the same period last year [58]. - In November 2025, the total import volume of ordinary corn was 560,000 tons, the highest this year, an increase of 260,000 tons or 86.67% compared with the same period last year, and an increase of 200,000 tons compared with the previous month [62]. - As of December 18, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 29.98 days, an increase of 0.45 days from last week, a month - on - month increase of 1.52% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.63% [66]. - **Demand Side** - At the end of the third quarter, the national pig inventory was 436.8 million heads, an increase of 9.86 million heads or 2.3% year - on - year, and an increase of 12.33 million heads or 2.9% quarter - on - quarter. As of the end of October, the inventory of breeding sows was 30.9 million heads, a decrease of 450,000 heads or 1.12% month - on - month [70]. - As of December 12, 2025, the breeding profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was - 163.34 yuan/head, and the breeding profit of purchasing piglets was - 240.69 yuan/head [73]. - As of December 18, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 67 yuan/ton. The corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 379 yuan/ton, in Jilin was - 708 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang was - 202 yuan/ton [77]. 3.3.2. Corn Starch - **Supply Side** - As of December 17, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions across the country was 3.24 million tons, an increase of 10.20% [81]. - From December 11 to 17, 2025, the total national corn processing volume was 631,700 tons, a decrease of 4,100 tons from last week; the national corn starch output was 328,300 tons, a decrease of 2,800 tons from last week; the weekly operating rate was 62.31%, a decrease of 0.53% from last week. As of December 17, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 1.074 million tons, an increase of 25,000 tons from last week, a week - on - week increase of 2.38%, a month - on - month increase of 0.47%, and a year - on - year increase of 22.32% [85]. 3.4. Option Market Analysis As of December 19, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2603 contract of corn was 8.72%, a decrease of 1.84% from 10.56% last week. The implied volatility decreased this week and was at a relatively low level compared with the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility [88].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.19」 铝类市场周报 供给稳定需求韧性，铝类或将震荡运行 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：沪铝先跌后升，周涨跌幅+0.07%，报22185元/吨。氧化铝先升后降，周涨跌+1.21%，报2500元/吨。 行情展望： 氧化铝：基本面原料端，进口矿季节性影响减弱，发运逐步回稳，国内港口库存回升，铝土矿价格持稳，原料供给较 充足。供给方面，由于氧化铝价已跌破理论成本线，利润侵蚀的影响下，国内产能及开工或有小幅回落，未来利润倒 挂情况若持续，大面积减产现象发生可能性增大。需求方面，电解铝厂在产产能基本持稳，已临近行业上限，对氧化 铝需求亦保持稳定态势。整体来看，氧化铝基本面或处于供给偏多、需求持稳的阶段。由于行业供给仍偏多，库存高 企，后续需逐步跟踪观测冶炼厂实际控产能情况。 观点总结：氧化铝主力合约轻仓震荡交易，注意操作节奏及风险控制。 电解铝：基本面原料端，原料 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The egg market showed a downward trend this week. The continuous losses of the breeding industry have led to a decline in replenishment enthusiasm and an increase in the elimination of old hens, resulting in a slight decrease in the egg - laying hen inventory and a slight improvement in the market atmosphere. The low spot prices and continued losses in the breeding industry are favorable for long - term prices. However, the current high inventory of laying hens, the slight slowdown in the elimination of old hens, and the pessimistic market atmosphere still restrict the performance of near - term prices. The futures price continued to decline this week. The far - month contracts are caught between weak current realities and strong expectations, and it is advisable to lightly test long positions in far - month contracts [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, eggs fluctuated and closed down. The closing price of the 2603 contract was 2946 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 78 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to the previous week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: The continuous losses of the breeding industry have led to a decline in replenishment enthusiasm and an increase in the elimination of old hens, resulting in a slight decrease in the egg - laying hen inventory. The low spot prices and continued losses in the breeding industry are favorable for long - term prices. However, the current high inventory of laying hens, the slight slowdown in the elimination of old hens, and the pessimistic market atmosphere still restrict the performance of near - term prices. The far - month contracts are caught between weak current realities and strong expectations, and it is advisable to lightly test long positions in far - month contracts [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Top 20 Positions**: The egg futures March contract fluctuated and closed down, with a position of 174,582 lots, an increase of 17,921 lots compared to last week. The net position of the top 20 was - 52,210, compared to - 38,490 last week, indicating an increase in net short positions [12]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts**: As of Friday, the number of registered egg warehouse receipts was 0 [16]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The egg spot price was reported at 3120 yuan per 500 kilograms, a decrease of 8 yuan per 500 kilograms compared to last week. The basis between the active March contract futures price and the spot average price was reported at 174 yuan per ton [22]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread**: The 3 - 5 spread of eggs was reported at - 550 yuan per 500 kilograms, which is generally at a low level for the same period [26]. - **Related Commodities Spot Prices**: As of December 18, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork was reported at 17.51 yuan per kilogram, and the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables was reported at 5.9 yuan per kilogram [32]. 3.3 Industry Chain - **Supply - side: Inventory Index and Replenishment Enthusiasm**: As of October 31, 2025, the national laying - hen inventory index was reported at 114.24, a month - on - month decrease of 0.88%. The national new - chick index was reported at 67.09, a month - on - month decrease of 12.47% [38]. - **Elimination Index and Culling Age**: As of October 31, 2025, the national elimination index of laying hens was reported at 114.44, a month - on - month decrease of 8.18%. The national average culling age of hens was reported at 510 days [44]. - **Feed Raw Material Prices**: As of December 18, 2025, the average spot price of corn was reported at 2349.61 yuan per ton, and the spot price of soybean meal in Fangcheng was reported at 3080 yuan per ton [48]. - **Feed Prices and Breeding Profits**: As of December 12, 2025, the breeding profit per laying hen was reported at - 0.36 yuan, and the average price of laying - hen compound feed was reported at 2.8 yuan per kilogram [54]. - **Prices of Laying - hen Chicks and Culled Hens**: As of December 12, 2025, the average price of laying - hen chicks in the main production areas was reported at 2.80 yuan per chick, and the average price of culled hens in the main production areas was reported at 7.94 yuan per kilogram [61]. - **Monthly Egg Exports**: According to data released by the Chinese Customs, in October 2025, the total egg export volume was 13,394.53 tons, an increase of 923.78 tons compared to the same period last year (12,470.75 tons), a year - on - year increase of 7.41%, and a month - on - month increase of 178.74 tons compared to the previous month (13,215.79 tons) [65]. 3.4 Representative Company - Information about Xiaoming Co., Ltd. is mainly presented in the form of a P/E ratio chart, but no specific analysis of the company is provided in the text [67].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.19」 螺纹钢市场周报 炉料反弹+宏观利好 螺纹期价止跌走高 研究员：蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场 「周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 价格及价差：截至12月19日收盘，螺纹主力合约期价3119（+59），杭州螺纹中天现货价格3320（+40）。（单 位：元/吨/周） 2. 产量：螺纹产量上调。181.68（+2.9），同比（-37.05）。（单位：万吨） 3. 需求：表观需求回升。本期表需208.64（+5.55），（同比-30.04）。（单位：万吨） 4. 库存：厂库和社库继续下滑。螺纹钢总库存452.54（-26.96），（同比+49.52）。（单位：万吨） 5. 盈利率：钢厂盈利率35.93%，环比上周持平，同比去年减少12.55个百分点。 「 周度要点小结2」 行情展望 4 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 宏观方面：海外，（1）美联储威廉姆斯表示，货币政策已为2026年做 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of the raw material increased after the rigid demand buying, the cost - side support strengthened beyond expectations, and the compression of production profit drove the spot market price up. The price of cis - butadiene rubber in the Shandong market continued to rise, with the spot price ranging from 10,250 to 11,000 yuan/ton. Sinopec Chemical Marketing and the main sales companies of PetroChina raised the ex - factory price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber by 300 yuan/ton in total, and the ex - factory price of PetroChina Southwest increased by 400 yuan/ton in total [6]. - Most of the previously shut - down cis - butadiene rubber plants have gradually restarted, and the domestic production has increased. This week, the operation gradually resumed, but the flow of goods was average, the inventory of production enterprises increased, and the monthly plan on the spot side was gradually implemented, but the market transaction follow - up was average, and the inventory of trading enterprises also increased. With a large amount of circulating resources on the spot side and a high load of domestic production plants, the supply pressure remained high. In terms of demand, tire enterprises arranged production flexibly this week, some enterprises controlled production, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises was weak, entering the seasonal off - season, the overall shipment rhythm of enterprises was slow, the finished product inventory increased, and under the production and sales pressure, some enterprises had shutdown and production - limit phenomena [6]. - The short - term price of the br2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,650 - 11,400 [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of raw materials increased after rigid demand buying, the cost - side support strengthened, and the spot market price rose. The price of cis - butadiene rubber in Shandong continued to rise, and the ex - factory prices of major sales companies increased [6]. - **Market Outlook**: The supply pressure is high due to the restart of plants and increased inventory, while the demand is weak as tire enterprises face seasonal off - season and production and sales pressure [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The br2602 contract is expected to fluctuate between 10,650 and 11,400 [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - **Price Trend**: The price of the synthetic rubber futures main contract fluctuated and closed up this week, with a weekly increase of 2.8% [10]. - **Position Analysis**: No specific content provided other than the topic of "Position Analysis of the top 20 in cis - butadiene rubber" [11]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of December 19, the spread between contracts 2 and 3 of butadiene rubber was - 25 [16]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of December 19, the warehouse receipts of cis - butadiene rubber were 4,560 tons, unchanged from last week [19]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - **Spot Price**: As of December 18, the price of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 in the Shandong market was 10,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton from last week [24]. - **Basis**: As of December 18, the basis of butadiene rubber was - 190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 130 yuan/ton from last week [24]. 3.3 Industry Conditions 3.3.1 Upstream - **Prices of Naphtha and Ethylene**: As of December 18, the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 534.88 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 13.87 US dollars/ton from last week; the CIF mid - price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 745 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [27]. - **Capacity Utilization and Port Inventory of Butadiene**: As of December 19, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 70.55%, a decrease of 0.62% from last week; the port inventory of butadiene was 36,000 tons, an increase of 100 tons from last week [32]. 3.3.2 Industry - **Production and Capacity Utilization of Cis - butadiene Rubber**: In November 2025, the domestic production of cis - butadiene rubber was 130,100 tons, a decrease of 7,500 tons from the previous month. As of December 18, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 76.26%, an increase of 5.57% from last week [35]. - **Production Profit of Cis - butadiene Rubber**: As of December 18, the domestic production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was 289 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton from last week [38]. - **Inventory of Cis - butadiene Rubber**: As of December 19, the domestic social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 34,010 tons, an increase of 2,060 tons from last week; the manufacturer inventory was 27,600 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons from last week; the trader inventory was 6,410 tons, an increase of 960 tons from last week [42]. 3.3.3 Downstream - **Tire Capacity Utilization**: As of December 18, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.01%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.13 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.67 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.94 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.72 percentage points. Enterprises arranged production flexibly, and some controlled production, with the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises being weak [45]. - **Tire Exports**: In October 2025, China's tire exports were 653,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 6.79%. From January to October, the cumulative tire exports were 7.0438 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.68%. Among them, the exports of passenger car tires were 225,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.23% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.82%, and the cumulative exports from January to October were 2.7266 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.08%; the exports of truck and bus tires were 398,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.35% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.85%, and the cumulative exports from January to October were 4.0265 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.53% [48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The BR2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,650 - 11,400 in the short term. The supply pressure of the synthetic rubber industry remains high due to high levels of circulating resources and production device loads. On the demand side, tire companies are operating with weak capacity utilization, entering the seasonal off - season, with slow overall shipment rhythms and rising finished product inventories. Some companies have production suspension or limitation due to production and sales pressure [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 11,040 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan; the main contract position was 101,376, a decrease of 4,040. The 2 - 3 spread of synthetic rubber was - 10 yuan/ton, unchanged. The total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber in warehouses was 4,560 tons, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream prices of BR9000 from different manufacturers (Qilu Petrochemical, Daqing Petrochemical, etc.) increased by 200 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber was - 130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan. Brent crude oil was 59.68 dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.76 dollars; Naphtha CFR Japan was 532.88 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.75 dollars; Northeast Asian ethylene price was 745 dollars/ton, unchanged; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 870 dollars/ton, unchanged; WTI crude oil was 55.94 dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.67 dollars; the mainstream price of butadiene in Shandong market was 8,090 yuan/ton, an increase of 240 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene was 15.93 million tons/week, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate was 71.17%, an increase of 0.77 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 35,900 tons, a decrease of 5,200 tons; the operating rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation was 55.9%, a decrease of 0.21 percentage points. The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber in November was 13.01 million tons, a decrease of 0.75 million tons compared with the previous month, a month - on - month decrease of 5.44% and a year - on - year increase of 8.43%. The capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 70.69%, a decrease of 2.84 percentage points. The production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was 349 yuan/ton, a decrease of 135 yuan. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 32,000 tons, a decrease of 300 tons; the manufacturer's inventory was 26,500 tons, a decrease of 600 tons; the trader's inventory was 5,450 tons, an increase of 220 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 71.57%, an increase of 0.65 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 64.07%, an increase of 0.57 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.01 million pieces, an increase of 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58.31 million pieces, an increase of 6.63 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 40.58 days, an increase of 0.56 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 45.51 days, an increase of 0.56 days [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of December 18, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.01%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.13 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.67 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.94 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.72 percentage points. In November, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber production was 13.01 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.44% and a year - on - year increase of 8.43%. The capacity utilization rate was 68.13%, a decrease of 3.27 percentage points compared with the previous month and an increase of 0.53 percentage points compared with the same period last year. As of December 17, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber inventory was 34,000 tons, an increase of 2,100 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 6.45% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - New partial plant overhauls led to a slight decline in domestic urea production. With no planned plant shutdowns next week and 2 - 4 shut - down plants possibly resuming production, considering short - term faults, production is expected to increase slightly [2] - Agriculture is in a short - term rigid demand off - season, with recent reserve demand for phased replenishment, and there is still reserve demand expectation in the Northeast. Environmental warnings in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu and other places led to a slight decline in compound fertilizer production, and the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer is expected to decline steadily or slightly [2] - Main urea factories in major production and sales areas had a slight inventory build - up this week. However, Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia showed obvious inventory reduction due to reserve demand from the Northwest and Northeast. The short - term receipt of orders by urea factories improved, and there may be further inventory reduction. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1670 - 1720 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of Zhengzhou urea's main contract was 1708 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread of Zhengzhou urea was - 51 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton; the trading volume of Zhengzhou urea's main contract was 162,527 lots, up 97,688 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Zhengzhou urea was - 13,481; the exchange warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou urea were 11,177, down 25 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu and Shandong remained unchanged, while the price in Anhui increased by 10 yuan/ton to 1670 yuan/ton. The basis of Zhengzhou urea's main contract was - 8 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton. The FOB prices in the Baltic and China's main ports remained unchanged at 347.5 and 387.5 US dollars/ton respectively [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - Port inventory was 12.3 million tons, up 1.8 million tons; enterprise inventory was 117.97 million tons, down 5.45 million tons. The urea enterprise operating rate was 81.85%, up 0.02 percentage points; the daily urea output was 197,900 tons, unchanged. Urea exports were 1.2 billion tons, down 17%; the monthly urea output was 6.00033 billion tons, up 129,060 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate was 40.62%, up 0.09 percentage points; the melamine operating rate was 61.86%, up 0.2 percentage points. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China was 137 yuan/ton, up 81 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea was - 13 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizer was 4.3825 billion tons, up 753,800 tons; the weekly output of melamine was 32,200 tons, up 100 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of December 17, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 117.97 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.45 million tons or 4.42%. The inventory reduction was mainly concentrated in North, Northeast and Northwest China [2] - As of December 18, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 13.8 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.5 million tons or 12.20%. The current export land - to - port collection is in progress smoothly, and some ports have received goods successively [2] 3.6 Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - As of December 18, the domestic methanol - to - olefin plant capacity utilization rate was 89.49%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.71%. The Ningbo Fude and Qinghai Salt Lake plants continued to be shut down, and the weekly average MTO industry operation declined. The Lianhong Gerun MTO plant's production load was gradually increasing, and the short - term industry operation rate was expected to increase slightly. The MA2605 contract was expected to fluctuate in the range of 2130 - 2190 in the short term. The overall methanol supply was abundant. Due to the previous snowfall and downstream concentrated restocking during the week, the upstream loading and shipping pace slowed down, and the inventory of inland enterprises increased. The short - term total inventory of domestic methanol enterprises might still show a slight increase. The methanol port inventory decreased slightly this week. The提货 of the mainstream social warehouses in East China continued well, but a Zhejiang olefin plant's shutdown for maintenance continued to affect consumption. In South China, imports and domestic shipping vessels continued to replenish, the提货 volume of the main storage areas was okay, and the inventory increased slightly. The follow - up situation of foreign vessel unloading should be continuously monitored [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2,174 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 18 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread of methanol was - 42 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3 yuan/ton; the trading volume of the main methanol contract was 867,499 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 7,233 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 122,757 lots; the number of methanol warehouse receipts was 6,789, a week - on - week decrease of 920 [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2,095 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period; the price in Inner Mongolia was 1,937.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 17.5 yuan/ton; the East - Northwest price difference was 150 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 5 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was - 84 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2 yuan/ton; the CFR price at the main Chinese port was 249 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 318 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1 US dollar/ton; the FOB price in Rotterdam was 253 euros/ton, unchanged from the previous period; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was - 69 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3 US dollars/ton [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The NYMEX natural gas price was 4.1 US dollars/million British thermal units, a week - on - week increase of 0.16 US dollars/million British thermal units [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports was 79.96 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.1 tons; the inventory at South China ports was 41.92 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.54 tons; the methanol import profit was - 15.73 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 23.67 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume was 161.26 tons, a week - on - week increase of 18.57 tons; the inventory of inland enterprises was 391,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 38,300 tons; the methanol enterprise operation rate was 89.81%, a week - on - week increase of 0.72 percentage points [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operation rate was 41.49%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.42 percentage points; the dimethyl ether operation rate was 8.98%, a week - on - week increase of 1.1 percentage points; the acetic acid operation rate was 73.89%, a week - on - week increase of 4.27 percentage points; the MTBE operation rate was 69.75%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.22 percentage points; the olefin operation rate was 89.95%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.87 percentage points; the methanol - to - olefin on - paper profit was - 1,043 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 29 yuan/ton [3] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 16.67%, a week - on - week increase of 0.25 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of methanol was 14.75%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.22 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol was 17.42%, a week - on - week increase of 16.87 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for methanol was 17.42%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.52 percentage points [3] 3.7 Industry News - As of December 17, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 39.11 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.83 tons, or 10.86%; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 22.04 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.30 tons, or 6.25%. As of December 17, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 121.88 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.56 tons. The inventory in East China decreased by 3.10 tons, while the inventory in South China increased by 1.54 tons. The methanol port inventory decreased slightly this week. Recently, the production capacity loss due to domestic methanol maintenance and production cuts was less than the production capacity output from restarts, and the overall output increased. The operation of inland methanol projects was normal, and the overall supply was abundant [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory at Qingdao Port continues to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing an accumulation trend, and the overall accumulation amplitude has increased compared to the previous period. Overseas standard rubber arrivals are increasing, while mixed rubber arrivals have slightly decreased. Downstream tire factories are cautious in restocking, with a mostly wait - and - see purchasing sentiment, resulting in a small overall outbound volume. In terms of demand, tire enterprises are flexibly arranging production this week. Some enterprises are controlling production. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises is operating weakly, entering the seasonal off - season. The enterprises' overall shipment rhythm is slow, the finished product inventory is rising, and under the production and sales pressure, some enterprises are implementing production suspension or limitation. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,000 - 15,650 in the short term, and the nr2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,200 - 12,650 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 15,320 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread of Shanghai rubber is 15 yuan, up 20 yuan. The closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 12,455 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan; the 2 - 3 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 5 yuan, down 5 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 2,865 yuan, up 45 yuan. The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber have changed, with the open interest of the main contract of Shanghai rubber increasing by 128 hands to 146,623 hands, and the open interest of the main contract of 20 - number rubber decreasing by 2,571 hands to 59,257 hands. The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber have also decreased [2] Spot Market - The prices of various types of rubber in the spot market have changed. For example, the price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,900 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15,350 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The prices of synthetic rubbers such as Qilu Petrochemical's SBR 1502 and BR 9000 have also changed. The basis of Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber has also changed [2] Upstream Situation - The reference prices of various raw materials in Thailand have changed, with the price of RSS3 theoretical production profit increasing by 13.6 US dollars/ton to 138.6 US dollars/ton, and the STR20 theoretical production profit increasing by 10.6 US dollars/ton to 53.8 US dollars/ton. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 126,100 tons, an increase of 35,000 tons, and the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 256,400 tons, a decrease of 61,100 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rates of all - steel tires and semi - steel tires have increased, with the all - steel tire operating rate at 64.07%, up 0.57 percentage points, and the semi - steel tire operating rate at 71.57%, up 0.65 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires and semi - steel tires in Shandong have also increased. The monthly output of all - steel tires and semi - steel tires has also increased [2] Option Market - The historical volatility and implied volatility of the underlying asset have decreased. The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset is 12.76%, down 0.61 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying asset is 14.59%, down 0.17 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options and at - the - money put options is 19.07%, down 0.44 percentage points [2] Industry News - In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October this year, and a significant year - on - year increase of about 46% compared with 68,500 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26%. As of December 14, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 498,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,200 tons, an increase of 2.08%. As of December 18, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.01%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.13 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.67 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.94 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.72 percentage points [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The overall supply of red dates is relatively loose due to the carry - over inventory of old dates and new - season supply, while downstream consumption lacks highlights. There is no obvious increase in the deep - processing and terminal markets. With about 2 months until the Spring Festival, short - term supply is abundant and demand has not improved significantly. It is expected that the price of red dates will continue to be weak. Attention should be paid to the consumption situation during the peak season. [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for red dates is 8,920 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 5 yuan compared to the previous period. The main contract's open interest is 123,674 lots. - The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 10,403 lots, a decrease of 538 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 982, and the total number of valid warehouse receipt forecasts is 1,145. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The prices of red dates in various regions are as follows: the unified price of red dates in Kashgar is 6.5 yuan/kg; the wholesale price of first - grade grey dates in Hebei is 4.4 yuan/jin; the unified price of red dates in Alar is 5.65 yuan/kg; the wholesale price of first - grade grey dates in Henan is 4.45 yuan/jin; the price of special - grade red dates in Henan is 5.15 yuan/kg; the price of special - grade red dates in Hebei is 9.65 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.02 yuan; the price of special - grade red dates in Guangdong is 10.6 yuan/kg; the price of first - grade red dates in Guangdong is 9.5 yuan/kg. [2] 3.3 Upstream Market - The annual output of red dates is 606.9 million tons, a decrease of 318.7 million tons compared to the previous period. The planting area is 1.993 million hectares. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The national red date inventory is 15,790 tons this week, an increase of 1,880 tons compared to last week, with a month - on - month increase of 13.52% and a year - on - year increase of 22.01%. - The monthly export volume of red dates is 2,205,220 kg, and the cumulative monthly export volume is 25,753,622 kg. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative quarterly sales volume of red dates of Hao Xiang Ni decreased by 2,981.06 tons. The cumulative quarterly year - on - year production of red dates of Hao Xiang Ni increased by 36,480.43% (1.47% increase compared to the previous period). [2] 3.6 Industry News - In the Hebei Cuierzhuang market, there are 10 trucks in the parking area. The arrivals are mainly sub - standard and finished products. After the new - season harvest, raw materials are gradually being processed in factories. The procurement cost for merchants is clear, and downstream buyers purchase as needed. - In the Guangdong Ruyifang market, 6 trucks of goods have arrived. Some of the goods have average quality, with the reference price for special - grade being 9.50 yuan/kg and first - grade being 8.30 yuan/kg. Downstream merchants purchase as needed, and about 2 trucks of goods are traded. [2]