1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - On Wednesday, the HC2510 contract decreased with reduced positions. Macroscopically, China and the US issued a joint statement, with the US promising to continue adjusting tariff measures on Chinese goods and suspending the implementation of a 24% reciprocal tariff for 90 days starting August 12. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly production of hot-rolled coils decreased, and the capacity utilization rate was 80.44%, still at a relatively high level; inventory increased, and apparent demand declined. Overall, recent supply-side disturbances supported the rebound of steel prices, but as market sentiment subsided, some varieties experienced corrections, and the short - term hot-rolled coil market fluctuated greatly. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2510 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were adjusting downward, and the red bars turned green. The recommended operation is short - term trading, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract was 3,451 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan; the position volume was 1,353,836 hands, down 27,724 hands; the net position of the top 20 in the HC contract was - 54,820 hands, down 6,310 hands; the HC10 - 1 contract spread was 4 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the HC warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 79,286 tons, unchanged; the HC2510 - RB2510 contract spread was 229 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou was 3,540 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Guangzhou and Wuhan, it was 3,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin, it was 3,440 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The basis of the HC main contract was 89 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan; the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 160 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fine ore at Qingdao Port was 789 yuan/wet ton, up 7 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,535 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,250 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet was 3,090 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The 45 - port iron ore inventory was 13,712.27 million tons, up 54.37 million tons; the sample coking plant coke inventory was 44.36 million tons, down 1.92 million tons; the sample steel mill coke inventory was 619.30 million tons, down 7.48 million tons; the Hebei billet inventory was 115.36 million tons, up 4.34 million tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.77%, up 0.29%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.07%, down 0.15%. The sample steel mill hot - rolled coil production was 314.89 million tons, down 7.90 million tons; the sample steel mill hot - rolled coil capacity utilization rate was 80.44%, down 2.02%. The sample steel mill hot - rolled coil factory inventory was 77.88 million tons, down 1.42 million tons; the 33 - city hot - rolled coil social inventory was 278.75 million tons, up 10.10 million tons. The domestic crude steel production was 8,318 million tons, down 336 million tons; the net steel export volume was 938.40 million tons, up 17.40 million tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly automobile production was 2.591 million vehicles, down 0.2031 million vehicles; the monthly automobile sales were 2.593 million vehicles, down 0.3115 million vehicles. The monthly air - conditioner production was 28.3831 million units, down 1.0969 million units; the monthly household refrigerator production was 9.0474 million units, up 0.5374 million units; the monthly household washing machine production was 9.5079 million units, up 0.0959 million units [2] 3.6 Industry News - The Ministry of Finance, the People's Bank of China, and the State Administration of Financial Supervision formulated the Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Personal Consumption Loans, and state - owned banks followed up. On August 8, 2025, the Australian Anti - Dumping Commission postponed the release of the basic fact report and final - ruling recommendation for the anti - dumping sunset review of steel reinforcing bars imported from China, and was expected to complete the basic fact report by December 10, 2025, and submit the final - ruling report to the Australian Minister of Industry and Science by February 9, 2026 [2] 3.7 Key Focus - The weekly production, in - plant inventory, and social inventory of hot - rolled coils on Thursday [2]

Report Summary - Industry Investment Rating: Not provided - Core View: Despite cost support, supply is expected to increase as maintenance devices restart. There is a divergence in the negotiation focus between traders and downstream users in the spot market. Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises increased slightly, and the production enterprise inventory is expected to decline slightly this week, while the trade enterprise inventory is expected to increase. The short - term capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises may be slightly adjusted, and the BR2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,680 - 12,200 [2] Data Indicators Summary Futures Market - The closing price of the main synthetic rubber contract is 11,750 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the open interest is 26,557, down 130; the 9 - 10 spread is - 15 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 2,490 tons, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 from different petrochemical companies ranges from 11,750 - 11,850 yuan/ton, with price changes from 0 - 100 yuan; the basis of synthetic rubber is 100 yuan/ton, up 175 yuan; Brent crude oil is 825 dollars/barrel, down 0.51 dollars; WTI crude oil is 63.17 dollars/barrel, down 0.79 dollars; the price of butadiene in Shandong market is 9,475 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The weekly butadiene production capacity is 14.69 million tons, down 0.08 million tons; the capacity utilization rate is 69.76%, down 0.21 percentage points; the port inventory is 14,700 tons, up 4,300 tons; the operating rate of Shandong refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 46.87%, down 1.33 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 12.25 million tons, down 1.69 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 68.17%, down 4.29 percentage points; the production profit is - 606 yuan/ton, down 231 yuan; the social inventory is 3.14 million tons, up 0.01 million tons; the manufacturer inventory is 24,150 tons, up 350 tons; the trader inventory is 7,290 tons, down 230 tons [2] - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 74.35%, down 0.1 percentage points; the operating rate of full - steel tires is 61%, down 0.08 percentage points; the monthly output of full - steel tires is 12.62 million pieces, up 800,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 55.23 million pieces, up 1.08 million pieces; the inventory days of full - steel tires in Shandong are 39.37 days, down 0.08 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 46.45 days, up 0.81 days [2] Industry News - As of August 6, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China is 3.14 million tons, up 0.01 million tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.38% - As of August 7, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 69.71%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.27 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 9.93 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises is 60.06%, a month - on - month increase of 0.80 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.73 percentage points - In July 2025, the output of butadiene rubber in China is 12.92 million tons, up 0.67 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 5.47% and a year - on - year increase of 27.04% [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - For corn, the US Department of Agriculture's August supply - demand report is overall bearish, causing international corn prices to decline. In the domestic market, factors such as continuous import corn auctions, new - season corn growth, and poor market activity lead to weak spot prices. Although the corn futures market oscillated slightly higher today after previous continuous drops, it remains in a weak trend, and a bearish approach is recommended [2]. - For corn starch, as previously - overhauled enterprises resume work, the industry's operating rate has increased, leading to greater supply pressure. Meanwhile, downstream demand is in the off - season, resulting in an obvious oversupply situation. The corn starch futures market maintains a low - level weak oscillation, and a bearish approach is recommended [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Corn starch futures closing price (active contract) is 2279 yuan/ton, with a change of 6 yuan/ton; corn monthly spread (9 - 1) is 75 yuan/ton; corn starch monthly spread (9 - 11) is 96 yuan/ton, with a change of - 10 yuan/ton. Corn futures positions (active contract) decreased by 96939 hands to 508626 hands, and corn starch futures positions (active contract) decreased by 13793 hands to 123723 hands. Other relevant futures data such as net long positions and registered warehouse receipts also have corresponding changes [2]. Outer - market - CBOT corn futures closing price (active contract) is 394.5 cents/bushel, with a change of - 13.25 cents/bushel. CBOT corn total positions increased by 42218 to 1617501, and non - commercial net long positions decreased by 107968 to 25499 [2]. Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2395.1 yuan/ton, with a change of 0.98 yuan/ton. The factory - quoted price of corn starch in Changchun is 2710 yuan/ton, with no change. Other spot prices and spreads also have corresponding data [2]. Upstream Situation - Forecasted planting areas and yields of corn in the US, Brazil, Argentina, China, and Ukraine are provided, with most remaining unchanged. Corn inventories in southern and northern ports and deep - processing corn inventories also have corresponding changes [2]. Industry Situation - Corn imports decreased by 3 tons to 16 tons, and corn starch exports increased by 4.06 tons to 27.78 tons. Feed production is 2937.7 tons, and corn starch processing profits in Shandong, Hebei, and Jilin have corresponding changes [2]. Downstream Situation - Deep - processing corn consumption increased by 2.69 tons to 116.46 tons. Alcohol and starch enterprise operating rates increased by 1.28% and 2.07% to 43.08% and 55.9% respectively [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn decreased by 0.04% to 9.07%, and the 60 - day historical volatility remained unchanged at 7.46%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options on corn decreased by 1.1% to 12.02% [2]. Industry News - The probability of La Nina occurring in the next few months is 40%, and the US Department of Agriculture's August supply - demand report shows an increase in US corn planting area, yield, and ending inventory [2]. Key Focus - Pay attention to Mysteel's weekly corn consumption, as well as the operating rate and inventory of starch enterprises on Thursday and Friday [3].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Core View - On Wednesday, the yields of treasury bond cash bonds strengthened collectively, and the yields of 1Y - 7Y maturity declined by about 0.50 - 1.50bp, while the yields of 10Y and 30Y declined by about 1bp to 1.72% and 1.96% respectively. Treasury bond futures also strengthened collectively, with the main contracts of TS, TF, T, and TL falling by 0.03%, 0.05%, 0.02%, and 0.10% respectively. The central bank continued to conduct net withdrawals, and the weighted average rate of DR007 rebounded slightly to around 1.46% and fluctuated. Domestically, the effect of policies to expand domestic demand has emerged. In July, the year - on - year increase of core CPI continued to rise, and the month - on - month decline of PPI narrowed. In July, the PMIs of both manufacturing and non - manufacturing sectors declined comprehensively, the supply and demand decreased marginally, and the composite PMI declined slightly but remained above the boom - bust line, indicating that overall production and business activities remained stable. In terms of trade, the export growth rate continued to rise in July, showing the resilience of foreign trade. Overseas, the suspension period of China - US tariffs was extended by 90 days. The year - on - year increase of US CPI in July was flat and lower than expected. Previous non - farm data showed weakness in the labor market, and the market expects the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September to be higher than 90%. Recently, the equity market has been strong, and the stock index is approaching the high point since October last year, triggering concentrated selling of bonds by trading accounts, with significant selling pressure on the ultra - long end of interest - rate bonds. Currently, the bond market is still tied to equity fluctuations. Against the backdrop of unchanged risk - preference dominance, the linkage between stock and bond fluctuations may further strengthen. It is recommended to wait and see for the time being [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Futures Market - **Futures Prices and Volumes**: The closing prices of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts were 108.435 (+0.02%), 105.745 (+0.05%), 102.368 (+0.03%), and 118.270 (+0.1%) respectively. The trading volumes of T, TF, TS, and TL main contracts were 77715 (+6311), 47424 (-1345), 39500 (+1660), and 125564 (+4221) respectively [2]. - **Futures Spreads**: Most of the spreads such as TL2512 - 2509, T2512 - 2509, TF2512 - 2509, and TS2512 - 2509 showed an upward trend, while T09 - TL09 spread decreased by 0.11 [2]. - **Futures Positions**: The main contract positions of T, TF, TS, and TL all decreased. The net short positions of T and TL among the top 20 decreased, while the net short position of TF increased and that of TS decreased slightly [2]. 2. Bond Market - **CTD Bonds**: The net prices of several CTD bonds such as 220010.IB, 250007.IB, etc. showed an upward trend, except for 210014.IB which decreased slightly [2]. - **Active Treasury Bonds**: The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year active treasury bonds increased, while the yields of 3 - year active treasury bonds decreased [2]. 3. Interest Rates - **Short - term Interest Rates**: The short - term interest rates of silver - pledged overnight, 7 - day, 14 - day, and Shibor overnight, 7 - day, 14 - day all showed an upward trend, while the 1 - year and 5 - year LPR remained unchanged [2]. 4. Open Market Operations - The issuance scale of open - market operations was 1185 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 1385 billion yuan, with a net withdrawal of 200 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day reverse repurchase [2]. 5. Industry News - The three departments jointly issued the "Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Personal Consumption Loans", and the nine departments including the Ministry of Finance issued the "Implementation Plan for the Interest Subsidy Policy for Loans to Service - Industry Business Entities" [2]. 6. Key Concerns - On August 14 at 20:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending August 9 will be released; on August 15 at 20:30, the monthly rate of US retail sales in July will be released [3].

螺纹钢产业链日报 2025/8/13 研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。 本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人 不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | RB主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,222.00 | -36↓ RB主力合约持仓量(手) | 1652593 | +47205↑ | | | RB合约前20名净持仓(手) | -103473 | -27573↓ RB10-1合约价差(元/吨) | -74 | +4↑ | | | RB上期所仓单日报(日 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate may be in a stage where supply slightly increases and demand gradually recovers. Lithium prices fluctuate greatly, and the industry outlook is gradually improving. It is recommended to conduct light - position short - selling transactions at high prices and pay attention to trading rhythm to control risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 85,100 yuan/ton, up 2,580 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 159,540 lots, down 44,780 lots; the position of the main contract is 392,675 lots, up 35,677 lots; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is - 2,480 yuan/ton, down 6,100 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts are 20,829 lots/ton, up 1,440 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 81,000 yuan/ton, up 3,000 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 78,800 yuan/ton, up 3,000 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 4,100 yuan/ton, up 420 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 819 US dollars/ton, up 31 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 8,350 yuan/ton, up 575 yuan; the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) is 2,553 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 44,100 tons, up 2,000 tons; the monthly import volume is 17,697.62 tons, down 3,448.16 tons; the monthly export volume is 429.65 tons, up 142.92 tons; the monthly output of power batteries is 133,800 MWh, up 4,600 MWh; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 52%, up 5%; the price of lithium manganate is 31,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 5.28 million yuan/ton, up 0.13 million yuan; the price of lithium cobalt oxide is 230,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type): China is 147,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (622 power type): China is 123,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type): China is 129,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 51%, down 4%; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 3.43 million yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 52%, up 3%; the current monthly output of new energy vehicles (by CAAM) is 1,243,000 vehicles, down 25,000 vehicles; the current monthly sales volume is 1,262,000 vehicles, down 67,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles (by CAAM) is 44.99%, up 0.68%; the cumulative sales volume and year - on - year increase of new energy vehicles is 8,220,000 vehicles, up 2,286,000 vehicles; the current monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 225,000 vehicles, up 20,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume and year - on - year increase of new energy vehicles is 1.308 million vehicles, up 600,000 vehicles; the 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 68.74%, up 0.14%; the 40 - day average volatility of the underlying is 50.70%, up 0.28% [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The total call position is 142,443 lots, down 16,548 lots; the total put position is 91,141 lots, up 19,793 lots; the total put - call ratio of positions is 63.98%, up 19.1087%; the at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.48%, down 0.0043% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association Lithium Industry Branch: Resist "involution - style" vicious competition, jointly create a fair, just, stable and orderly market environment. Strengthen upstream - downstream collaboration to maintain industrial security. Enhance information transparency and reduce communication barriers. Stabilize market supply through signing long - term cooperation agreements [2]. - Ganfeng Lithium: Integrate the PPGS lithium salt lake project with LAR, and plan to develop and build a production line with an annual output of 150,000 tons of LCE lithium products [2]. - Eight leading dry - process lithium battery separator enterprises including Xingyuan Materials, Zhongxing New Materials, Huiqiang New Materials, Cangzhou Mingzhu, Enjie Co., Ltd., Bosheng New Materials, Tianhong New Materials, and Kanghui New Materials have reached multiple consensuses on anti - involution in the industry: price self - discipline; scientific capacity release; suspension of capacity expansion; strengthening industrial chain cooperation; and hoping for social supervision [2]. 3.8 Market Analysis - The main contract of lithium carbonate first rose and then fell, closing down 0.61%. The position increased month - on - month, the spot was at a discount, and the basis strengthened. Fundamentally, on the raw material side, the fluctuation of spot prices led to the fluctuation of lithium ore prices. Mines held firm on prices while smelters only replenished stocks for rigid demand, and the overall trading situation was cautious. In terms of supply, due to the policy change in domestic mining areas, when the market rose, smelters participated in hedging to ensure profits. In this context, smelters still had a high willingness to produce, and domestic supply may continue to increase. In terms of demand, the production plans of downstream battery material factories have been improved. As the market demand changes from the off - season to the peak season, downstream enterprises have advanced inventory preparations and other operations, and the inquiry activities have increased. However, since downstream enterprises are more sensitive to the current lithium price, high - price lithium will also suppress the purchasing sentiment, so the trading sentiment in the spot market remains cautious and wait - and - see [2]. - In the options market, the put - call ratio of positions is 63.98%, up 19.1087% month - on - month. The call position in the options market dominates, and the sentiment in the options market is bullish. The implied volatility slightly decreased. Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are above the 0 axis, and the red bars are converging [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The alumina market may experience a slight increase in both supply and demand, with costs being supported and supply expectations improving due to policy impacts. It is recommended to lightly short at high prices [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum market may face a situation of slightly increasing supply and weak demand, with accumulating industrial inventory. It is also suggested to lightly short at high prices [2]. - The cast aluminum alloy market may be in a stage of slightly shrinking supply and weak demand during the off - season, with accumulating industrial inventory. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a range - bound manner [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20,790 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 3,230 yuan/ton, down 78 yuan. The LME aluminum three - month quotation was 2,622.50 US dollars/ton, up 36.50 US dollars [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Aluminum increased by 4,725 hands to 10,977 hands; the Shanghai - London ratio was 7.93, down 0.09 [2]. Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum price was 20,760 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 3,220 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 20,350 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous AOO aluminum price was 20,610 yuan/ton, up 210 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Alumina production in the month was 774.93 million tons, up 26.13 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 696.19 million tons, down 23.83 million tons [2]. - The import quantity of aluminum scrap and waste in China was 155,616.27 tons, down 4,084.65 tons; the export quantity was 64.33 tons, down 8.11 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 4,523.20 million tons, up 2.50 million tons; the production of aluminum products was 587.37 million tons, up 11.17 million tons [2]. - The export quantity of unforged aluminum and aluminum products was 54.20 million tons, up 5.20 million tons; the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.89 million tons, up 0.29 million tons [2]. Downstream and Application - The production of aluminum alloy was 166.90 million tons, up 2.40 million tons; the national real estate climate index was 93.60, down 0.11 [2]. - The automobile production was 280.86 million vehicles, up 16.66 million vehicles [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum was 7.80%, up 0.01%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 8.29%, down 0.39% [2]. - The call - put ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options was 1.21, up 0.02; the implied volatility slightly increased [2]. Industry News - China and the US issued a joint statement on economic and trade talks, suspending reciprocal tariffs for 90 days [2]. - The US 7 - month CPI was flat year - on - year at 2.7%, lower than expected; the core CPI was up 3.1% year - on - year, higher than expected [2]. - The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by more than 90% in the September meeting [2].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 6,074.00 | -36.00↓ | SF主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,794.00 | -26.00↓ | | | SM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 617,712.00 | -8095.00↓ | SF期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 456,768.00 | -22810.00↓ | | 期货市场 | 锰硅前20名净持仓（日，手） | -104,374.00 | -1083.00↓ | 硅铁前20名净持仓（日，手） | -34,653.00 | +1088.00↑ | | | SM1-9月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 88.00 | -8.00↓ | SF1-9月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 170.00 | -22.00↓ | | SM | 仓单（日，张） | 75,520.00 | -187.00↓ | SF 仓单（日，张） | 19,998.00 | +379.00↑ | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core View of the Report - The nickel market is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct range operations with a reference range of 120,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton. The raw materials are in a tight situation, refined nickel production has increased slightly, demand from stainless steel mills has improved, and new - energy vehicle production and sales are rising, but the demand for ternary batteries is limited. Recently, nickel price increases have led to weakened procurement demand, and domestic inventories have remained stable while overseas LME inventories have increased [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 122,340 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spread between the September - October contracts of Shanghai nickel is - 130 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of LME 3 - month nickel is 15,360 US dollars/ton, up 35 US dollars; the position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 70,930 lots, down 2,959 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 25,561 lots, down 212 lots; LME nickel inventory is 211,098 tons, down 648 tons; the inventory of nickel in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 26,194 tons, up 444 tons; the LME nickel cancelled warrants total 13,302 tons, down 648 tons; the warrant quantity of Shanghai nickel is 20,578 tons, down 115 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The spot price of SMM 1 nickel is 123,800 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the average spot price of 1 nickel plate in Yangtze River Non - ferrous is 123,900 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; the CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the NI main contract is 1,460 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan; the LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 205.99 US dollars/ton, down 2.42 US dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 434.66 million tons, up 41.94 million tons; the total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,033.34 million tons, up 38.98 million tons; the average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 65.84 US dollars/ton, down 7.57 US dollars; the tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, up 1,120 tons; the total monthly output of ferronickel is 22,600 metal tons, down 1,300 metal tons; the monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,215.27 tons, down 472.3 tons; the monthly import volume of ferronickel is 1.0414 billion tons, up 0.1932 billion tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.744 billion tons, down 40,700 tons; the total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 592,900 tons, down 15,100 tons [2]. Industry News - The three departments have introduced a consumer subsidy policy with a 50,000 - yuan consumption limit for single - pen consumption over 50,000 yuan. The subsidy scope includes various key consumption areas. The China - US Stockholm Economic and Trade Talks Joint Statement announced a 90 - day suspension of the 24% tariff starting from August 12, 2025. In July, the US CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month, in line with market expectations, and 2.7% year - on - year, lower than the expected 2.8%. The core inflation reached the highest level since February, mainly driven by service price increases. The market believes the July CPI data is mild, and traders have greatly increased the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September, with the current probability as high as 95% [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term: The dollar index is in a weak and volatile pattern, which is positive for gold prices. However, if the US - Russia negotiation makes substantial progress, it may put downward pressure on gold prices. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - Medium - term: Factors such as the inflation rebound risk due to tariffs, the expectation of the Fed's loose policy, the damage to the US dollar's credit, and the resilient demand for central bank gold purchases still provide strong support. The bullish logic remains intact, pushing up the central price of gold. In the medium - to - long - term, it is recommended to buy on dips. The target range for the Shanghai Gold 2510 contract is 770 - 800 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai Silver 2510 contract is 9200 - 9400 yuan/kilogram [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 777.72 yuan/gram, up 1.68 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract is 9300 yuan/kilogram, up 113 yuan. The positions of the main contracts and the net positions of the top 20 have different changes, and the gold warehouse receipts remain unchanged while the silver warehouse receipts decrease by 16,111 kilograms [2]. - **Spot Market**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's gold spot price is 773.7 yuan/gram, down 0.3 yuan; the silver spot price is 9200 yuan/kilogram, up 66 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract is - 4.02 yuan/gram, down 1.98 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract is - 100 yuan/kilogram, down 47 yuan [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Gold ETF holdings remain unchanged, and silver ETF holdings increase by 40.96 tons. The non - commercial net positions of gold and silver in CFTC have different changes. The quarterly total supply and demand of gold both increase by about 54.8 tons. The annual total supply of silver is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces, and the global annual demand is 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2]. - **Option Market**: The historical and implied volatilities of gold options have different changes, with the 20 - day historical volatility of gold up 0.1% and the 40 - day historical volatility down 0.18% [2]. 3.2 Industry News - US tariff revenue reached a new high in July, but the budget deficit still expanded. The tariff revenue in July soared to $28 billion, a year - on - year increase of 273%, and the budget deficit reached $291 billion, a 10% increase year - on - year [2]. - US President Trump urged the Fed to cut interest rates again and threatened to sue Fed Chairman Powell. US Treasury Secretary called on the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September [2]. - Affected by the market's expectation of interest rate cuts, the US dollar index weakened, the Shanghai gold price recovered, and the silver price continued to rebound strongly. The year - on - year growth rate of US CPI in July was lower than expected [2]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in September is 6.6%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 93.4% [2].