| 观点总结（ | 随着前期检修企业陆续复工，近来玉米淀粉行业开机率有所回升，供应端压力增加。同时，下游需求仍处淡季，签单走货欠佳，玉 | | --- | --- | | 淀粉） | 米淀粉供大于求格局明显。截至8月6日，全国玉米淀粉企业淀粉库存总量132万吨，较上周增加2.70万吨，周增幅2.09%，月增幅0 | | 重点关注 | 周四、周五mysteel玉米周度消耗以及淀粉企业开机、库存情况 | .69%；年同比增幅14.48%。盘面来看，今日淀粉震荡收跌，总体仍维持偏弱趋势，偏空思路对待。 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 玉米系产业日报 2025-08-14 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 玉米淀粉期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/ 期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/吨) 2 | 2281 | 吨) | 2648 | -3 | | | 玉米月间价差(1-5):(日,元/吨) -3 玉米淀粉月间价差(11-1):(日,元/吨) 期货持仓量(活跃合约) ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Fundamentally, zinc ore imports at home and abroad are on the rise, zinc ore processing fees are continuously increasing, and the sulfuric acid price has risen significantly, leading to further recovery of smelter profits and increased production enthusiasm. New production capacities are being released, and previously shut - down capacities are resuming production, resulting in a faster growth in supply. Currently, the import loss continues to widen, and the inflow of imported zinc has decreased. On the demand side, the downstream is in the off - season, and the operating rate of processing enterprises has declined year - on - year. Although the zinc price has dropped recently and downstream enterprises are purchasing on demand at low prices, overall trading remains dull. Domestic social inventories continue to accumulate, and the spot premium has declined. Overseas, LME inventories have decreased significantly, and the strong LME zinc price has driven up the domestic zinc price. Technically, with increasing positions and rising prices, the bullish sentiment is strong. Attention should be paid to the resistance at the 23,000 mark. It is recommended to wait and see for now [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract is 22,480 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan; the 09 - 10 contract spread of Shanghai Zinc is - 15 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. The LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,811.5 dollars/ton, down 36.5 dollars. The total position of Shanghai Zinc is 209,862 lots, down 3,627 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc is 9,808 lots, down 94 lots; the Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipts are 17,097 tons, up 905 tons. The SHFE inventory is 65,917 tons, up 4,193 tons; the LME inventory is 78,475 tons, down 1,075 tons [3]. 现货市场 - The spot price of 0 zinc on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,510 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 22,390 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan. The basis of the ZN main contract is 30 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 1.5 dollars/ton, up 3.26 dollars. The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 17,190 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,900 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons. The global zinc ore production is 1.0075 million tons, down 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 628,000 tons, up 45,000 tons. The zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3]. Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons. The zinc social inventory is 99,200 tons, up 8,000 tons [3]. Downstream Situation - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons. The new housing construction area is 303.6432 million square meters, up 71.8071 million square meters; the housing completion area is 225.6661 million square meters, up 41.8147 million square meters. The automobile production is 2.8086 million vehicles, up 166,600 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3]. Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for zinc is 13.61%, down 0.4%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for zinc is 13.61%, down 0.4%. The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 7.71%, up 0.02%; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 13.21%, unchanged [3]. Industry News - China's social financing scale increment from January to July 2025 totaled 23.99 trillion yuan, 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year, and the new social financing in July was 1.16 trillion yuan. In July, RMB loans decreased by 50 billion yuan, new RMB deposits were 500 billion yuan, and household deposits decreased by 1.11 trillion yuan. The M2 - M1 gap was 3.2 percentage points, 0.5 percentage points narrower than last month. Trump said he would announce the new Fed chairperson earlier and has narrowed the candidates to three or four. The 188 billion yuan investment subsidy for equipment renewal supported by ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in 2025 has been allocated, supporting about 8,400 projects and driving total investment of over 1 trillion yuan [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The demand for lead in the current market is mainly concentrated in the lead-acid battery sector. As the traditional consumption peak season approaches, downstream enterprises' willingness to stock up for production should theoretically strengthen, but the actual spot trading volume is average when prices rise, and the market is still in a wait-and-see state. The overall demand is still in a slow recovery stage, and the consumption increment in August is expected to be weak due to factors such as tariffs and front-loaded consumption. However, as the peak season progresses, there is a possibility of demand improvement. The inventory has shown a slight downward trend recently, and the number of warehouse receipts has also decreased, indicating an overall improvement in demand. Although the demand has not effectively driven inventory depletion, it is expected to gradually strengthen, providing some support for lead prices. It is recommended to go long on SHFE lead at low prices this week [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the SHFE lead main contract was 16,770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 160 yuan; the 3-month LME lead quotation was 1,988 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 28 US dollars. The price difference between the 09 - 10 contracts of SHFE lead was -20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan. The SHFE lead open interest was 98,794 lots, an increase of 3,302 lots. The net position of the top 20 in SHFE lead was -2,542 lots, an increase of 1,231 lots. The SHFE lead warehouse receipts were 61,784 tons, a decrease of 751 tons. The SHFE inventory was 62,334 tons, a decrease of 949 tons; the LME lead inventory was 262,225 tons, a decrease of 25 tons [3] 现货市场 - The spot price of 1 lead on Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network was 16,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Nonferrous Metals Market was 16,840 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan. The basis of the lead main contract was -70 yuan/ton, an increase of 110 yuan; the LME lead cash - 3 - month spread was -42.01 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3.28 US dollars [3] Upstream Situation - The price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan was 16,154 yuan, an increase of 201 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) was 16,670 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan. The WBMS lead supply - demand balance was -18,700 tons, an increase of 7,100 tons. The number of recycled lead production enterprises was 68, unchanged. The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 34.15%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead was 224,200 tons, a decrease of 67,500 tons. The average weekly operating rate of primary lead was 75.65%, a decrease of 1.84 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 33,800 tons, a decrease of 300 tons. The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports was -60 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The ILZSG lead supply - demand balance was 16,400 tons, an increase of 48,800 tons; the global lead ore output was 399,700 tons, a decrease of 3,700 tons; the monthly lead ore import volume was 119,700 tons, an increase of 24,800 tons [3] Industry Situation - The monthly refined lead import volume was 815.37 tons, a decrease of 1,021.76 tons; the monthly refined lead export volume was 2,109.62 tons, an increase of 223.33 tons. The average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory was 540 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of the waste battery market was 10,112.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 92.86 yuan/ton [3] Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries was 41.45 million, a decrease of 425,000. The average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) was 19,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton. The Shenwan third - level industry index of batteries and other cells was 1,901.83 points, an increase of 30.7 points. The monthly output of new energy vehicles was 730,000, an increase of 166,600; the monthly output of automobiles was 2.8086 million, an increase of 166,600 [3] Industry News - The Trump administration is considering 11 candidates for the Fed Chair, and Trump said the number of candidates is down to three or four and will appoint a new Fed Chair soon. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said more evidence of inflation improvement is needed, and every meeting is a live meeting; Fed nominee Milan said there is no evidence that tariffs cause inflation. Traders have fully priced in a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in September. The US unadjusted CPI annual rate in July was 2.7%, unchanged from the previous month; the unadjusted core CPI annual rate rose to a five - month high of 3.1%. After the data release, traders increased their bets on a September rate cut, which is positive for the non - ferrous metals sector. Trump said Russia will face consequences if it doesn't stop the conflict and hopes to have a second meeting with Putin. European leaders urged Trump to pressure Putin to agree to a cease - fire and meet with Zelensky. If a cease - fire agreement is reached, Ukraine's European allies may consider relaxing sanctions on Russia [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The total demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream industries remains flat. Today, the price of industrial silicon has started to decline because downstream demand is insufficient to support the upward movement of the futures market. In the short - term, the fundamentals of industrial silicon are expected to improve, but the long - term futures price is still not attractive enough. However, some funds have started to make early arrangements. If the decline in polysilicon eases later, short - term long positions can be considered on dips. Operationally, if the price later drops below 8000 yuan, medium - to long - term long positions can be considered on dips [2] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 8675 yuan/ton, a increase of 75 yuan; the main contract's open interest was 279,035 lots, a decrease of 5465 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 92,101 lots, an increase of 2466 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts were 50,693 lots, a decrease of 8 lots; the price spread between September and October industrial silicon was - 5 yuan, an increase of 30 yuan [2] Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - blown 553 silicon was 9400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon was 9750 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract was 725 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan; the DMC spot price was 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke was 1810 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal was 1850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips was 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The monthly production of industrial silicon was 305,200 tons, an increase of 5500 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon was 552,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon was 2211.36 tons, an increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon was 52,919.65 tons, a decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC was 44,900 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 15.75 US dollars/kg; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market was 20,300 yuan/ton; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 4.94 US dollars/kg; the monthly export volume of unwrought aluminum alloy was 25,770.18 tons, an increase of 1590.89 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC was 74.84%, an increase of 4.76 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy was 1.669 million tons, an increase of 24,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 20,187.85 tons, a decrease of 337.93 tons [2] Industry News - On August 13, it was reported that in Jiangxi, non - fossil energy has developed rapidly, with the new - energy installed capacity increasing by 1.6 times compared to the end of 2020. Wind and photovoltaic installed capacity has exceeded thermal power and become one of the main power sources in Jiangxi. The number of county - level regions connected to long - distance natural gas pipelines has increased by 42 compared to 2020, basically achieving full coverage of 100 counties (cities, districts). In the industrial silicon sector, on the supply side, as the wet season deepens in the southwest region, the electricity - price advantage becomes more prominent, stimulating the resumption of production in silicon plants. The number of newly opened furnaces in Sichuan, Yunnan and other places continues to rise, and it is expected that the output in the southwest region will increase week - on - week next week. In Xinjiang, although some large factories maintain a stable production rhythm, some small and medium - sized silicon plants have low profit margins due to the previous low prices, and their enthusiasm for resuming production is not high, so the overall output remains relatively stable [2] Viewpoint Summary - In the organic silicon segment, the market demand for organic silicon has recovered and grown, and the operating rate has increased slightly, driving the demand for industrial silicon to some extent. In the polysilicon segment, the operating rate of the polysilicon industry remains at a high level. With the continuous favorable policies for the photovoltaic industry, the downstream installation demand is still expected, providing strong rigid - demand support for industrial silicon. However, the polysilicon price has shown a slight downward trend recently, and enterprises under cost pressure have a demand to lower the purchase price of industrial silicon. In the aluminum alloy segment, enterprises mostly replenish inventory as needed, the inventory continues to grow, the price is declining, and it is in a passive de - stocking stage, so it is difficult to drive the demand for industrial silicon. Overall, the total demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream industries remains flat [2]

| | | ，装置预计稳定运行。非铝下游尚缺乏改善信号。SH2509短期关注2600附近压力；SH2601关注2530附近 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 支撑与2700附近压力。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 烧碱产业日报 2025-08-14 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:烧碱(日,元/吨) | 2530 | 49 烧碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 61036 | -9420 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) | -20130 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai Copper main contract oscillated and declined, with a decrease in open interest, a premium in the spot market, and a strengthening basis. The copper concentrate TC fee has improved but remains in the negative range, and the domestic port inventory has slightly increased. The tight supply of copper ore still supports the copper price. The smelters are currently actively producing, but the production growth rate may gradually slow down due to the supply of copper concentrates. The downstream consumption demand may slow down due to the off - season and trade tariffs, and the total inventory remains at a medium - low level. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly increased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double lines are below the 0 - axis and the green bars are expanding. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile market and control the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Copper futures main contract was 78,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 430 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price was 9,762 dollars/ton, a decrease of 41 dollars. The spread between the main contract's adjacent months was 20 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan. The open interest of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 152,341 lots, a decrease of 6,536 lots. The long - short position of the top 20 futures traders in Shanghai Copper was 4,902 lots, an increase of 5,608 lots. The LME copper inventory was 155,875 tons, an increase of 875 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper inventory was 81,933 tons, an increase of 9,390 tons; the LME copper canceled warrants were 11,550 tons, a decrease of 50 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange's cathode copper warrants were 24,434 tons, a decrease of 2,856 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price was 79,435 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price was 79,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 55 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 47 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract was 485 yuan/ton, an increase of 390 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread was - 79.20 dollars/ton, an increase of 7.94 dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 234.97 million tons, a decrease of 4.58 million tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters was - 38.06 dollars/kiloton, an increase of 4.03 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi was 69,720 yuan/metal ton, an increase of 320 yuan; in Yunnan, it was 70,420 yuan/metal ton, an increase of 320 yuan. The processing fee for rough copper in the South was 900 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the North, it was 750 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper was 1.302 billion tons, an increase of 480 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 480,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons. The social inventory of copper was 418.2 million tons, an increase of 43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai was 55,690 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 68,150 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 640 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products was 2.2145 billion tons, an increase of 118.5 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 291.066 billion yuan, an increase of 87.08 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 4,665.756 billion yuan, an increase of 1,042.372 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,505,785,400 pieces, an increase of 270,785,400 pieces [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Copper was 9.52%, an increase of 0.23%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 9.65%, a decrease of 0.07%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV was 9.85%, an increase of 0.0073%. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options was 1.26, an increase of 0.0109 [2] 3.7 Industry News - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said more evidence of inflation improvement is needed, and every meeting has the possibility of action; Fed nominee Milan said there is no evidence that tariffs cause inflation. Traders have fully priced in a 25 - basis - point rate cut by the Fed in September. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the Fed may cut rates by 50 basis points, and the current interest rate should be lowered by 150 - 175 basis points. The total US national debt exceeded 37 trillion dollars for the first time. In the first seven months of this year, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 23.99 trillion yuan, 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year; RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan. The 188 billion yuan investment subsidy funds for equipment renewal supported by ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in 2025 have been allocated, driving a total investment of over 1 trillion yuan [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate may be in a stage of a slight increase in supply and a gradual recovery in demand, with large fluctuations in lithium prices and a gradually improving industry outlook [2] - The option market sentiment is bullish, with the call option holding an advantage in positions and a slight increase in implied volatility [2] - Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double - line is above the 0 - axis with the initial appearance of a green bar [2] - The recommended operation is to conduct short - selling transactions at high prices with a light position and pay attention to controlling risks in trading rhythm [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 85,300 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 148,691 lots, up 10,849 lots [2] - The position of the main contract is 389,177 lots, down 3,498 lots; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is - 11,820 yuan/ton, down 9,340 yuan [2] - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts are 21,679 lots/ton, up 850 lots [2] Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 82,000 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 79,750 yuan/ton, up 950 yuan [2] - The basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 3,300 yuan/ton, up 800 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 884 US dollars/ton, up 65 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 8,350 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 2,595 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 44,600 tons, up 500 tons; the monthly import volume is 17,697.62 tons, down 3,448.16 tons [2] - The monthly export volume is 429.65 tons, up 142.92 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 52%, up 5 percentage points [2] - The monthly output of power batteries is 133,800 MWh, up 4,600 MWh; the price of lithium manganate is 31,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 53,800 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan; the price of ternary material (811 type) in China is 147,000 yuan/ton; the price of cobalt - lithium oxide is 230,000 yuan/ton; the price of ternary material (622 power - type) in China is 123,000 yuan/ton; the price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China is 129,000 yuan/ton, all unchanged [2] Downstream and Application Situation - The operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 0%, down 51 percentage points; the operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode is 0%, down 52 percentage points [2] - The monthly output of new energy vehicles is 1,243,000 units, down 25,000 units; the monthly sales volume is 1,262,000 units, down 67,000 units [2] - The cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles is 44.99%, up 0.68 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume is 8,220,000 units, up 2,286,000 units [2] - The monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 225,000 units, up 20,000 units; the cumulative export volume is 1,308,000 units, up 600,000 units [2] - The 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 68.71%, down 0.03 percentage points; the 40 - day average volatility is 50.71%, up 0.01 percentage points [2] Option Situation - The total call option position is 148,988 contracts, up 6,545 contracts; the total put option position is 111,528 contracts, up 20,387 contracts [2] - The put - call ratio of total positions is 74.86%, up 10.8728 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money IV is 0.49%, up 0.0092 percentage points [2] Industry News - Chinese researchers have developed soft - pack cells with an energy density of over 600 Wh/kg and module batteries with an energy density of 480 Wh/kg, improving the energy density and endurance of traditional lithium - ion batteries by 2 - 3 times [2] - Jiangte Motor holds or controls over 100 million tons of lithium ore resources in Yichun [2] - The State Administration for Market Regulation and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology have drafted a notice on strengthening the recall, production consistency supervision, and standardized publicity of intelligent and connected new energy vehicles [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina fundamentals may be in a stage of slight increase in supply and demand, with cost support and improved supply expectations due to policy influence. It is recommended to conduct short - selling transactions at high prices with a light position, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum fundamentals may be in a situation of slight increase in supply and weak demand, with accumulated industrial inventory. The option market sentiment is slightly bullish, and it is also recommended to conduct short - selling transactions at high prices with a light position, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The cast aluminum fundamentals may be in a stage of slight contraction in supply and weak demand during the off - season, with accumulated industrial inventory. It is recommended to conduct short - selling transactions at high prices with a light position, while controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 20,715.00 yuan/ton, down 75.00 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 3,240.00 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan. The main - second - consecutive contract spread of Shanghai aluminum is 25.00 yuan/ton, up 15.00 yuan; that of alumina is 9.00 yuan/ton, up 35.00 yuan [2]. - The main contract positions of Shanghai aluminum decreased by 13,505.00 hands to 202,961.00 hands, while those of alumina increased by 69,355.00 hands to 158,619.00 hands [2]. - The LME aluminum cancelled warrants remained unchanged at 14,225.00 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 1,525.00 tons to 478,625.00 tons. The LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation is 2,608.50 US dollars/ton, down 14.00 US dollars [2]. - The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract is 20,140.00 yuan/ton, down 60.00 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract spread is 55.00 yuan/ton, up 30.00 yuan [2]. - The Shanghai aluminum SHFE inventory decreased by 3,913.00 tons to 113,614.00 tons, and the Shanghai aluminum SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 2,830.00 tons to 57,946.00 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum price is 20,710.00 yuan/ton, down 50.00 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum price is 20,820.00 yuan/ton, down 140.00 yuan [2]. - The alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 3,220.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide is 20,350.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of cast aluminum alloy decreased by 500.00 yuan to 210.00 yuan/ton, and the basis of electrolytic aluminum increased by 25.00 yuan to - 5.00 yuan/ton [2]. - The Shanghai Wumaoh aluminum premium is 20.00 yuan/ton, up 40.00 yuan; the LME aluminum premium is - 4.91 US dollars/ton, down 0.38 US dollars [2]. - The basis of alumina decreased by 10.00 yuan to - 20.00 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The alumina production is 774.93 million tons, up 26.13 million tons; the national alumina operating rate is 84.01%, up 1.52 percentage points; the total alumina capacity utilization rate is 84.75%, up 0.45 percentage points [2]. - The demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) is 696.19 million tons, down 23.83 million tons; the alumina supply - demand balance is 27.14 million tons, up 52.40 million tons [2]. - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap is 16,300.00 yuan/ton, up 100.00 yuan; that in Shandong metal scrap is 15,900.00 yuan/ton, up 150.00 yuan [2]. - China's import volume of aluminum scrap and fragments is 155,616.27 tons, down 4,084.65 tons; the export volume is 64.33 tons, down 8.11 tons [2]. - The alumina export volume is 17.00 million tons, down 4.00 million tons; the import volume is 10.13 million tons, up 3.38 million tons [2]. - The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance is 27.72 million tons, down 1.79 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum social inventory is 53.20 million tons, up 2.60 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The primary aluminum import volume is 192,314.50 tons, down 30,781.00 tons; the export volume is 19,570.72 tons, down 12,523.35 tons [2]. - The total electrolytic aluminum production capacity is 4,523.20 million tons, up 2.50 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum operating rate is 97.78%, up 0.10 percentage points [2]. - The aluminum product production is 587.37 million tons, up 11.17 million tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 54.20 million tons, up 5.20 million tons [2]. - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 61.89 million tons, up 0.29 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy is 2.58 million tons, up 0.16 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The total built - in capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 126.00 million tons, down 1.10 million tons; the National Real Estate Prosperity Index is 93.60, down 0.11 [2]. - The aluminum alloy production is 166.90 million tons, up 2.40 million tons; the automobile production is 280.86 million vehicles, up 16.66 million vehicles [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum is 7.85%, up 0.05 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 8.25%, down 0.03 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main at - the - money option is 9.27%, up 0.0028 percentage points; the call - put ratio is 1.16, down 0.0437 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Traders have fully priced in a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut by the Fed in September. The US Treasury debt has exceeded $37 trillion for the first time [2]. - In the first seven months of this year, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 23.99 trillion yuan, 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year; RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan. At the end of July, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 5.6%, and the stock of social financing scale increased by 9% [2]. - Four departments including the central bank explained two discount policies, which are an innovative exploration of fiscal and financial cooperation to boost consumption. After the policy expires, an effect evaluation will be carried out [2]. - In 2025, 188 billion yuan of investment subsidies for equipment renewal supported by ultra - long - term special treasury bonds have been allocated, supporting about 8,400 projects and driving total investment of over 1 trillion yuan [2].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 | 最新 | | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:烧碱(日,元/吨) | 2481 | | -21 烧碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 70456 | -3689 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) -3349 烧碱主力合约成交量(日,手) | -19342 | | | 105105 | -42520 | | | 合约收盘价:烧碱:1月(日,元/吨) -22 合约收盘价:烧碱:5月(日,元/吨) | 2614 | | | 2703 | -19 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) -3349 | -19342 | | | | | | 现货市场 | 烧碱(32%离子膜碱):山东地区(日,元/吨) 0 烧碱(32%离子膜碱):江苏地区(日,元/吨) | 800 | | | 890 | 0 | | | 山东地区32%烧碱折百价(日,元/吨) | 2500 | 0 基差:烧碱(日,元/吨) | | 19 | 21 | | 上游情况 | 原盐:山东 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - On Wednesday, the I2601 contract fluctuated weakly. In terms of macroeconomics, the US CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month in July, in line with the forecast, and the year - on - year increase was 2.7%, lower than the forecast, which increased the expectation of an interest rate cut in September. In terms of supply and demand, the shipping and arrival volumes of Australian and Brazilian iron ore decreased this period, port inventories increased, and hot metal production continued to decline slightly but remained above 2.4 million tons. Overall, the iron ore price rose significantly recently due to positive support, but with the decline of steel prices and technical pressure around 800, the iron ore price adjusted downward. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2601 contract showed that DIFF and DEA declined from high levels and the red column shrank. The operation suggestion is to be bearish on fluctuations, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 805.50 yuan/ton, down 2.00 yuan; the position volume was 214,582 lots, down 15,444 lots. The I 9 - 1 contract spread was 10.5 yuan/ton, up 4.00 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract was 9,298 lots, up 4,504 lots. The Dalian Commodity Exchange's iron ore warehouse receipts were 3,600 lots, up 400 lots. The quoted price of the Singapore iron ore main contract at 15:00 was 103.5 US dollars/ton, down 0.93 US dollars [2] Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 855 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fine ore was 845 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special fine ore at Jingtang Port was 723 yuan/dry ton, down 5 yuan. The basis of the I main contract (Mac fine dry ton - main contract) was 39 yuan, unchanged. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 104.00 US dollars/ton, up 1.10 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fine ore at Qingdao Port was 3.27, down 0.03. The estimated import cost was 854 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipping volume (weekly) was 3,046.70 million tons, down 15.10 million tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China (weekly) was 2,571.60 million tons. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) was 14,267.27 million tons, up 45.26 million tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) was 9,013.34 million tons, up 1.25 million tons. The iron ore import volume (monthly) was 10,462.30 million tons, down 132.70 million tons; the available days of iron ore (weekly) were 18 days, down 6 days. The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) was 38.84 million tons, down 0.25 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) was 61.96%, down 0.36%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) was 36.60 million tons, down 1.40 million tons. The BDI index was 2,017.00, down 21.00. The freight rate of iron ore from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 24.76 US dollars/ton, down 0.19 US dollars; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 10.38 US dollars/ton, down 0.20 US dollars [2] Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 83.77%, up 0.29%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 90.07%, down 0.15%. The domestic crude steel output (monthly) was 8,318 million tons, down 336 million tons [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 20.38%, up 0.20%; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) was 18.10%, up 0.09%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) was 20.59%, down 1.34%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) was 18.81%, down 1.76% [2] Industry News - From August 4th to August 10th, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume was 3,046.7 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15.1 million tons. The shipping volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore was 2,530.3 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.9 million tons. The shipping volume from Australia was 1,662.5 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 117.7 million tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1,447.8 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 99.6 million tons. The shipping volume from Brazil was 867.8 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 115.8 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2,571.6 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 50.8 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 2,381.9 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 125.9 million tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1,203.0 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 50.1 million tons [2]