Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Rapeseed Meal**: The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Near - month imports of Canadian rapeseed and rapeseed meal are restricted, and oil mills have exhausted their rapeseed stocks with widespread shutdowns, resulting in less supply pressure. However, the demand for rapeseed meal is weakening due to the decline in aquaculture demand and the substitution advantage of soybean meal. Recently, the prices of rapeseed meal and soybean meal have rebounded from low levels, and the short - term trend has strengthened. Attention should be paid to whether there will be a breakthrough in China - Canada trade policies [2]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed oil market is expected to continue the de - stocking mode. Near - month imports of rapeseed are structurally tightened, and oil mills have exhausted their rapeseed stocks with widespread shutdowns, which supports the price. However, the abundant supply of soybean oil and its good substitution advantage keep the demand for rapeseed oil mainly at a basic level. After a continuous decline, the decline of rapeseed oil futures prices has slowed down, and short - term observation is recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Directory **Futures Market** - **Prices**: The closing price of rapeseed oil futures (active contract) was 9407 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan; the closing price of rapeseed meal futures (active contract) was 2537 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan. The closing price of ICE rapeseed futures (active) was 639.2 Canadian dollars/ton, down 8.4 Canadian dollars; the closing price of rapeseed futures (active contract) was 5126 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan [2]. - **Positions and Warehouse Receipts**: The position of the main rapeseed oil contract increased by 1525 lots to 214,565 lots, and the net buying volume of the top 20 futures positions decreased by 5155 lots to - 8535 lots. The position of the main rapeseed meal contract increased by 32,792 lots to 408,102 lots, and the net buying volume of the top 20 futures positions increased by 22,004 lots to - 2963 lots. The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts decreased by 702 to 6838, and the number of rapeseed meal warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 2955 [2]. **Spot Market** - **Prices**: The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9770 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong was 2530 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The average price of rapeseed oil was 9887.5 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The import cost of rapeseed was 7969.31 yuan/ton, up 150.43 yuan [2]. - **Spreads and Ratios**: The oil - meal ratio was 3.78, down 0.03. The basis of the main rapeseed oil contract was 327 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the basis of the main rapeseed meal contract was 33 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan. The spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil was 1360 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil was 1200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 520 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. **Upstream Situation** - **Production and Imports**: The global rapeseed production forecast was 90.96 million tons, up 1.38 million tons; the annual forecast of rapeseed production was 13,446 thousand tons, up 1068 thousand tons. The total import volume of rapeseed in the current month was 11.53 million tons, down 13.13 million tons [2]. - **Profit and Operation**: The import rapeseed crushing profit was 596 yuan/ton, down 63 yuan. The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 1 million tons, down 1 million tons. The weekly opening rate of imported rapeseed was 1.6%, down 1.33 percentage points [2]. **Industry Situation** - **Inventory**: The monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil was 16 million tons, up 2 million tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal was - 0.4 million tons. The coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 3.8 million tons, up 0.71 million tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 15.77 million tons, down 5.57 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in East China was 47.8 million tons, down 1.6 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in East China was 26.05 million tons, down 0.7 million tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi was 2.4 million tons, down 0.3 million tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China was 20.7 million tons, down 0.6 million tons [2]. - **Delivery Volume**: The weekly delivery volume of rapeseed oil was 1.84 million tons, up 1.49 million tons; the weekly delivery volume of rapeseed meal was 0.39 million tons, up 0.17 million tons [2]. **Downstream Situation** - The monthly production of feed was 3128.7 million tons, up 201.5 million tons; the monthly production of edible vegetable oil was 495 million tons, up 44.4 million tons. The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 4508.6 billion yuan, up 12.9 billion yuan [2]. **Option Market** - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal was 21.81%, down 1.99 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed meal was 21.81%, up 2.84 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil was 14.17%, down 0.25 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for rapeseed oil was 14.17%, up 1.17 percentage points [2]. **Industry News** - On November 4th, ICE rapeseed futures declined. The US - China soybean trade agreement boosted the price of US soybean futures, which was beneficial to the domestic meal market. The meeting between the Canadian Prime Minister and the Chinese President did not achieve a breakthrough in rapeseed tariffs [2]. **Key Points of Attention** - The rapeseed opening rate and the inventory of rapeseed oil and meal in each region released by Myagric on Monday, and the trend of China - Canada trade relations [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View - The fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage where supply is converging and demand is gradually improving, with positive industry expectations and orderly inventory reduction. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 85,670 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; LME 3 - month copper was 10,652 dollars/ton, down 11.5 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread was - 20 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The main contract's open interest of Shanghai copper was 217,024 lots, down 10,525 lots. The futures' top 20 open interest of Shanghai copper was - 27,120 lots, down 1,478 lots. LME copper inventory was 133,900 tons, up 300 tons. The SHFE inventory of cathode copper was 116,140 tons, up 11,348 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants were 10,925 tons, down 200 tons. The SHFE warehouse receipts of cathode copper were 42,561 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 现货市场 - The SMM 1 copper spot price was 85,335 yuan/ton, down 1,255 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price was 85,430 yuan/ton, down 1,215 yuan. The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF (bill of lading) was 52 dollars/ton, unchanged; the Yangshan copper average premium was 34 dollars/ton, unchanged. The CU main contract basis was - 335 yuan/ton, down 1,185 yuan. The LME copper cash - 3 spread was - 17.2 dollars/ton, down. The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.5869 million tons, down. The domestic copper smelter's rough smelting fee (TC) was - 30.45 dollars/kiloton, up 0.55 dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The copper concentrate price in Jiangxi was 75,720 yuan/metal ton, down 1,200 yuan; in Yunnan, it was 76,420 yuan/metal ton, down 1,200 yuan. The rough copper processing fee in the south was 1,100 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; in the north, it was 900 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan [2]. 产业情况 - The refined copper output was 1.266 million tons, down 35,000 tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 490,000 tons, up 60,000 tons. The social copper inventory was 418,200 tons, up 4,300 tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai was 59,190 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 72,750 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 730 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 下游及应用 - The copper product output was 2.232 million tons, up 10,000 tons. The cumulative grid infrastructure investment was 437.807 billion yuan, up 58.231 billion yuan. The cumulative real estate development investment was 6,770.571 billion yuan, up 739.652 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,371,236,100 pieces, up 120,949,000 pieces [2]. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 23.66%. The current - month at - the - money IV implied volatility was 15.6%, down 0.0216%. The at - the - money option call - put ratio was - 0.13, down. The 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 19.39%, up 0.0007%. The at - the - money option call - put ratio was 1.28, up 0.0007 [2]. Industry News - In October, the estimated wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China were 1.61 million, a 16% year - on - year increase and a 7% month - on - month increase. Tesla China's shipments were 61,497, a 9.9% year - on - year decline and a 32.3% month - on - month decline. The US Senate failed to pass the federal government's temporary appropriation bill again, and the government "shutdown" entered the 35th day. The central bank's net investment in open - market treasury bond trading was 20 billion yuan, and it announced a 700 - billion - yuan 3 - month repurchase operation on November 5. Chinese President Xi Jinping met with Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, emphasizing expanding mutual investment and cooperation in various fields [2]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of alumina may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and relatively stable demand, and it is recommended to conduct short - long trades at low prices with a light position [2]. - The fundamentals of Shanghai aluminum may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and boosting demand, and it is recommended to conduct short - long trades at low prices with a light position [2]. - The fundamentals of cast aluminum alloy may be in a situation of slowing supply and increasing demand, and it is recommended to conduct oscillating trades with a light position [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 21,395 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,772 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2]. - The main - second - consecutive contract spread of Shanghai aluminum was - 55 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; that of alumina was - 41 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan [2]. - The main contract positions of Shanghai aluminum decreased by 31,025 hands to 225,136 hands; those of alumina increased by 1,617 hands to 421,899 hands [2]. - LME aluminum cancelled warrants remained unchanged at 45,625 tons; LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 552,575 tons [2]. - The net positions of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum decreased by 11,471 hands to 18,546 hands; the Shanghai - London ratio increased by 0.09 to 7.47 [2]. 2. Spot Market - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum was 21,300 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan; the spot price of alumina in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,790 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of cast aluminum alloy was 520 yuan/ton, down 190 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 95 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan [2]. - The Shanghai Wuma aluminum premium and discount was - 20 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the LME aluminum premium and discount was - 6.66 US dollars/ton, down 2.52 US dollars [2]. 3. Upstream Situation - The national alumina production was 799.90 million tons, up 7.42 million tons; the national alumina utilization rate was 88.27%, up 1.53 percentage points [2]. - The demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 704.31 million tons, down 21.49 million tons; the supply - demand balance of alumina was 46.85 million tons, up 18.12 million tons [2]. - The import volume of aluminum scrap and fragments decreased by 17,195.97 tons to 155,414.40 tons; the export volume increased by 15.31 tons to 68.54 tons [2]. 4. Industry Situation - The electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 57.70 million tons, up 1.60 million tons; the total electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 4,523.20 million tons, unchanged [2]. - The import volume of primary aluminum increased by 31,034.96 tons to 246,797.10 tons; the export volume increased by 3365.58 tons to 28,969.92 tons [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum production was 590.00 million tons, up 35.18 million tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 52.00 million tons, down 1.00 million tons [2]. 5. Downstream and Application - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 65.65 million tons, up 2.06 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy was 2.35 million tons, down 0.56 million tons [2]. - The national real estate climate index was 92.78, down 0.27; the automobile production was 322.65 million vehicles, up 47.42 million vehicles [2]. 6. Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 11.06%, up 0.05 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 8.96%, up 0.04 percentage points [2]. - The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 11.03%, down 0.0199 percentage points; the call - put ratio was 1.5, down 0.0405 [2]. 7. Industry News - In October, the wholesale sales of new - energy passenger vehicles were estimated to be 1.61 million, a year - on - year increase of 16% and a month - on - month increase of 7% [2]. - The US federal government "shutdown" entered the 35th day, and the Senate failed to pass the temporary appropriation bill again [2]. - The central bank's net investment in open - market treasury bond trading was 20 billion yuan, and a 700 - billion - yuan 3 - month repurchase operation was carried out on November 5 [2]. - The Chinese President met with the Russian Prime Minister, emphasizing expanding mutual investment and cooperation in various fields [2]. 8. Alumina Viewpoint Summary - The alumina main contract showed an oscillating trend, with increasing positions, spot premium, and weakening basis [2]. - The supply of alumina was still high, but production might be reduced as the price approached the cost line; the demand was stable due to high - capacity and high - operation electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Technically, the 60 - minute MACD showed red bars expanding below the 0 - axis; it was recommended to conduct short - long trades at low prices with a light position [2]. 9. Electrolytic Aluminum Viewpoint Summary - The Shanghai aluminum main contract first fell and then rose, with decreasing positions, spot discount, and weakening basis [2]. - The supply of electrolytic aluminum was expected to increase slightly due to previous project production; the demand was boosted by the improvement of the domestic macro - environment and the development of new - energy industries [2]. - The option market sentiment was bullish, and the implied volatility decreased slightly; technically, the 60 - minute MACD showed green bars converging near the 0 - axis; it was recommended to conduct short - long trades at low prices with a light position [2]. 10. Cast Aluminum Alloy Viewpoint Summary - The cast aluminum main contract was oscillating weakly, with increasing positions, spot premium, and weakening basis [2]. - The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and the cost of cast aluminum was supported; the demand was supported by the economic recovery and the sales strategies of the automotive and motorcycle industries [2]. - Technically, the 60 - minute MACD showed green bars slightly converging near the 0 - axis; it was recommended to conduct oscillating trades with a light position [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no mention of the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The precious metals market may continue to experience wide - range fluctuations. The tariff policy narrative has uncertainties, the ongoing US government shutdown and central bank gold - buying expectations provide bottom support for gold prices, but the strengthening of the US dollar and long - term yields pose potential suppression. The weakening of the short - term interest - rate cut expectation and the strengthening of the US dollar may resist the upward movement of gold prices. If the narrative about the end of the US government shutdown heats up, it may also suppress the upward expectation of gold prices. It is recommended to adopt an interval - band trading strategy. The Shanghai Gold 2512 contract should focus on the range of 890 - 950 yuan/gram, and the Shanghai Silver 2512 contract should focus on the range of 11,000 - 11,600 yuan/kilogram [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 912.26 yuan/gram, down 3.32 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 11,276 yuan/kilogram, up 38 yuan. The positions of the Shanghai Gold and Shanghai Silver main contracts decreased by 3,174 hands and 12,816 hands respectively. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Gold and Shanghai Silver main contracts increased by 117 hands and 2,931 hands respectively. The warehouse receipts of gold remained unchanged at 87,816 kilograms, while those of silver decreased by 9,440 kilograms to 656,170 kilograms [2]. - **Spot Market**: The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's gold spot price was 907.49 yuan/gram, down 8.51 yuan; the silver spot price was 11,159 yuan/kilogram, down 184 yuan. The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract was - 4.77 yuan/gram, down 5.19 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract was - 117 yuan/kilogram, down 222 yuan [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: Gold ETF holdings decreased by 3.15 tons to 1,038.63 tons; silver ETF holdings decreased by 22.18 tons to 15,167.64 tons. The non - commercial net positions of gold and silver in CFTC increased by 339 and 738 respectively. The quarterly total supply of gold was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the annual total supply of silver was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. The quarterly total demand for gold was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the annual global total demand for silver was 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2]. - **Options Market**: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 36.03%, up 0.07%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 26.84%, down 0.12%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for gold was 25.03%, up 0.07%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option was 25.02%, down 0.81% [2]. b. Industry News - The US Congress Senate failed to pass the federal government's temporary appropriation bill again, and the US federal government's "shutdown" has entered the 35th day, tying the longest record in US history. The two parties in Congress have been deadlocked, and the temporary appropriation bill proposed by the Republicans failed to pass in 13 votes in the Senate [2]. - There are signs that investor buying remains strong. In the third quarter, the holdings of gold exchange - traded funds (ETF) increased by about 222 tons, and the demand for gold bars and coins exceeded 300 tons for the fourth consecutive quarter, reaching 316 tons. Jewelry demand also exceeded expectations [2]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 70.1%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 29.9%. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut is 55.8%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 19.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 24.8% [2]. c. Impact on the Market - The recent statements of Fed officials have shaken the expectation of a December interest - rate cut. The ISM manufacturing index in the US in October continued to decline, and tariff policies still suppress the manufacturing outlook. FOMC officials have different views on future interest - rate cuts. The weakening of the interest - rate cut expectation and the strengthening of the US dollar may resist the upward movement of gold prices. However, the ongoing US government shutdown and central bank gold - buying expectations provide bottom support for gold prices [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - From October 24 - 30, the national average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda increased by 3.5% week - on - week to 84.3%. Multiple sets of equipment in East, North, Northwest, South, and Northeast China restarted, leading to a significant increase in supply. The downstream alumina maintained a high - operating state, while the operating rates of viscose staple fiber and printing and dyeing increased slightly. However, due to the obvious increase in supply and general downstream demand, the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories accumulated significantly last week. This week, there are both new maintenance and restart equipment in North and Central China, with the overall capacity utilization rate expected to increase. The supply of downstream alumina is loose and the low - profit situation may continue, suppressing the industry's stocking demand. Non - aluminum downstream industries have rigid demand for procurement with little change. The high inventory of liquid caustic soda in factories increases the pressure on enterprises to sell at low prices. The continuation of high - operating, high - inventory, and weak - demand situations exerts pressure on prices. Technically, SH2601 should pay attention to the support around 2250 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda futures contract was 2303 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan; the position of the main caustic soda futures contract was 138,392 lots, an increase of 10,328 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures was - 14,339 lots, an increase of 25 lots; the trading volume of the main caustic soda futures contract was 451,353 lots, an increase of 197,250 lots; the closing price of the January caustic soda contract was 2303 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan; the closing price of the May caustic soda contract was 2481 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 930 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong was 2500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of caustic soda was 197 yuan/ton, an increase of 33 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it was 220 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of steam coal was 649 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was - 150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; in Jiangsu, it was 75.5 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,120 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina was 2790 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.6 Industry News - From October 24 - 30, the national average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda increased by 3.5% week - on - week to 84.3%. From October 25 - 31, the national alumina operating rate decreased by 0.41% week - on - week to 85.86%; the viscose staple fiber operating rate increased by 1.03% to 89.64%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate increased by 1.01% to 68.32%. As of October 30, the inventory of liquid caustic soda factories increased by 6.84% week - on - week to 442,600 tons. From October 24 - 30, the chlor - alkali profit rose to 626 yuan/ton [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - L2601 oscillated downward, closing at 6,814 yuan/ton. The impact of newly added and previously shut - down maintenance devices expanded, leading to a decline in PE production and capacity utilization rate. The overall downstream PE operating rate decreased slightly, with the operating rate of agricultural film rising and that of packaging film falling. Production and social inventories decreased, with less inventory pressure. The cost of oil - based LLDPE increased and losses deepened, while the cost of coal - based LLDPE increased and profits rose slightly. With planned restarts of some devices, PE production and capacity utilization are expected to increase. In the short term, L2601 is expected to oscillate weakly, and the daily K - line should focus on the support around 6,770 [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - Futures prices of polyethylene decreased: the closing price of the main futures contract was 6,814 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the 1 - month contract was 6,814 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan; the 5 - month contract was 6,901 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan; the 9 - month contract was 6,959 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan. - Trading volume and open interest increased: trading volume was 290,462 lots, up 60,286 lots; open interest was 553,147 lots, up 20,008 lots. - The 1 - 5 spread was - 87, down 7. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 80,527 lots, down 3,112 lots [2]. Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE (7042) decreased: in North China, it was 6,921.3 yuan/ton, down 30.43 yuan; in East China, it was 7,135.71 yuan/ton, down 9.52 yuan. The basis was 107.3, up 34.56 [2]. Upstream Situation - The prices of raw materials decreased: the FOB middle - price of naphtha in Singapore was 62.59 US dollars/barrel, down 0.75 US dollars; the CFR middle - price of naphtha in Japan was 576.5 US dollars/ton, down 5.88 US dollars. The prices of ethylene in Southeast Asia and Northeast Asia remained unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The national petrochemical PE operating rate was 80.86%, down 0.59% [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of packaging film was 51.3%, down 1.29%; the operating rate of pipes was 32.17%, down 0.16%; the operating rate of agricultural film was 49.53%, up 2.42% [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 9.91%, up 0.34%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 8.37%, up 0.25%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put and call options was 9.92%, down 0.05% [2]. Industry News - From October 24th to 30th, PE production decreased by 0.72% to 643,500 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.59% to 80.87%. The overall downstream PE operating rate decreased by 0.4%, with the agricultural film operating rate up 2.4% and the packaging film operating rate down 1.3%. - As of October 29th, the inventory of PE production enterprises decreased by 19.16% to 416,000 tons; as of October 24th, the social inventory of PE decreased by 3.30% to 527,400 tons. - From October 25th to 31st, the cost of oil - based LLDPE increased by 3.53% to 7,389 yuan/ton, and the profit decreased by 234.86 yuan/ton to - 360 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - based LLDPE increased by 1.12% to 6,845 yuan/ton, and the profit increased by 5.57 yuan/ton to 197.86 yuan/ton [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon market is expected to stabilize in the short - term, and it is recommended to go long on dips. The supply will be further reduced due to the dry season, the demand from polysilicon is uncertain, while the demand from silicone and aluminum alloy is relatively stable. Cost provides support for prices, but high inventory restricts price increases [2]. 3. Summary according to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 9020 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan; the main contract position is 232,849 lots, down 9,304 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 42,010 lots, up 7,199 lots; the warehouse receipt of GZEE is 46,195 lots, up 372 lots; the closing price of the December contract is - 400 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the spread between November and December contracts is - 400 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - ventilated 553 silicon is 9450 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 9700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract is 430 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan; the DMC spot price is 11,800 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 2310 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 490 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrode (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 402,800 tons, up 36,000 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 1939.85 tons, up 602.27 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 70,232.72 tons, down 6409.29 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of silicone DMC is 44,900 tons, up 700 tons; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.95 US dollars/kg; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 21,300 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 6.5 US dollars/kg, down 0.01 US dollars; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 23,495.34 tons, down 5568.37 tons; the weekly operating rate of silicone DMC is 68.56%, down 1.49%; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.776 million tons, up 141,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 23,495.34 tons, down 5568.37 tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - The IEA's report shows that about half of the new power - generation installed capacity in the Middle East from 2023 to 2035 will be photovoltaic power generation, and the new photovoltaic - generation installed capacity will increase 15 times compared with the previous total installed capacity. In the industrial silicon market, in Sichuan and Yunnan, the dry - season production cut is expanding as the cost rises. In Xinjiang, production is increasing due to stable and low - cost power supply [2]. 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - In the silicone segment, inventory is lower than the historical average, production profit is flat, and there is a certain rigid - demand support for industrial silicon. In the polysilicon segment, inventory is as high as 282,600 tons, higher than the historical average. Rising silicon wafer prices are beneficial for polysilicon demand, but dry - season production cuts in polysilicon may have a negative impact on industrial silicon demand. In the aluminum alloy segment, the operating rate is stable, and the demand for industrial silicon remains high, but the marginal impact on price is limited [2].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the investment rating of the hot-rolled coil industry in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On Wednesday, the HC2601 contract declined weakly. The State Council Tariff Commission adjusted the additional tariffs on imported goods originating from the United States. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils continued to increase slightly, with a capacity utilization rate of 82.65%. Terminal demand increased and inventory decreased. Overall, as the macro - level positive factors faded and the decline in furnace materials weakened cost support, the hot-rolled coil market remained sluggish. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2601 contract showed that DIFF and DEA were moving downward. Operationally, the market is expected to be oscillating with a downward bias, and attention should be paid to rhythm and risk control [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract was 3,253 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan; the position volume was 1,373,091 lots, down 23,039 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the HC contract was - 77,490 lots, up 7,802 lots; the HC1 - 5 contract spread was - 7 yuan/ton, unchanged; the HC warehouse receipt at the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 130,301 tons, unchanged; the HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread was 229 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [3]. 2. Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou was 3,310 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; in Guangzhou, it was 3,270 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Wuhan, it was 3,360 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Tianjin, it was 3,200 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The basis of the HC main contract was 57 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan; the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 90 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [3]. 3. Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port was 775 yuan/wet ton, down 10 yuan; the price of Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,590 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan was 2,210 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Hebei Q235 billet was 2,910 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 145.3924 million tons, up 1.1859 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 374,400 tons, up 700 tons; the inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 6.2888 million tons, down 43,900 tons; the inventory of Hebei billets was 1.1957 million tons, down 103,900 tons [3]. 4. Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.73%, down 3 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 88.59%, down 1.33 percentage points. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills was 3.2356 million tons, up 11,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils was 82.65%, up 0.28 percentage points. The inventory of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills was 776,600 tons, up 3,100 tons; the social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities was 3.2893 million tons, down 86,400 tons. The monthly output of domestic crude steel was 73.49 million tons, down 3.88 million tons; the net export volume of steel was 9.92 million tons, up 910,000 tons [3]. 5. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles was 3.2758 million vehicles, up 460,400 vehicles; the monthly sales volume was 3.2264 million vehicles, up 369,800 vehicles. The monthly output of air conditioners was 18.0948 million units, up 1.276 million units; the monthly output of household refrigerators was 10.1276 million units, up 674,400 units; the monthly output of household washing machines was 11.7849 million units, up 1.653 million units [3]. 6. Industry News - In late October 2025, key steel enterprises produced 19.99 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.817 million tons, a daily - on - daily decrease of 9.8%; 19.18 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.744 million tons, a daily - on - daily decrease of 5.8%; and 21.94 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 1.995 million tons, a daily - on - daily increase of 0.9%. The State Council Tariff Commission adjusted the additional tariffs on imported goods originating from the United States, suspending the implementation of the 24% additional tariff rate on the United States for one year and retaining the 10% additional tariff rate [3]. 7. Key Points of Attention - The weekly output, in - plant inventory, and social inventory of hot - rolled coils on Thursday [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report On Wednesday, the RB2601 contract decreased with increasing positions. Macroscopically, the central bank announced a 700 billion yuan outright reverse repurchase operation on November 5 to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system. In terms of supply and demand, the weekly output of rebar continued to increase, with a capacity utilization rate of 46.6%. Inventories have declined for three consecutive weeks, but market sentiment has recently weakened and trading volume has shrunk. Overall, the support from the macro and cost sides has weakened, and the mainstream positions continue to increase short positions. Rebar is weakly declining. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the RB2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are moving downward. The operation suggestion is to be bearish with a focus on risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,024 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the trading volume was 2,031,781 lots, up 65,237 lots - The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was -137,448 lots, down 24,396 lots; the spread between RB1 - 5 contracts was -70 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan - The daily warehouse receipt of RB on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 140,134 tons, down 2,708 tons; the spread between HC2601 - RB2601 contracts was 229 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,220 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (actual weight) was 3,303 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,290 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,180 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan - The basis of the RB main contract was 196 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the spot price difference between hot-rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou was 90 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port was 775 yuan/wet ton, down 10 yuan; the price of quasi-primary metallurgical coke in Hebei (market price) was 1,590 yuan/ton, unchanged - The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax-excluded) was 2,210 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billets in Hebei was 2,910 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan - The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports was 145.3924 million tons, up 1.1859 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants was 374,400 tons, up 700 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory of coke at sample steel mills was 6.2888 million tons, down 43,900 tons; the inventory of billets in Tangshan was 1.1957 million tons, down 103,900 tons - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.73%, down 3 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 88.59%, down 1.33 percentage points - The output of rebar at sample steel mills was 2.1259 million tons, up 55,200 tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar at sample steel mills was 46.60%, up 1.21 percentage points - The inventory of rebar at sample steel mills was 1.7171 million tons, down 129,200 tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities was 4.3081 million tons, down 66,700 tons - The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 67.71%, unchanged; the monthly output of domestic crude steel was 73.49 million tons, down 3.88 million tons - The monthly output of Chinese steel bars was 15.41 million tons, up 660,000 tons; the net export volume of steel was 9.92 million tons, up 910,000 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate prosperity index was 92.78, down 0.27; the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment was -0.50%, down 1 percentage point - The cumulative year-on-year growth rate of real estate development investment was -13.90%, down 1 percentage point; the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of infrastructure investment was 1.10%, down 0.9 percentage point - The cumulative value of housing construction area was 6.4858 billion square meters, down 54.71 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area was 453.99 million square meters, down 55.98 million square meters - The inventory of commercial housing for sale was 399.37 million square meters, up 2.92 million square meters [2] 3.6 Industry News - In late October 2025, key steel enterprises produced 19.99 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.817 million tons, a 9.8% decrease in daily output compared to the previous period; 19.18 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.744 million tons, a 5.8% decrease in daily output compared to the previous period; and 21.94 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 1.995 million tons, a 0.9% increase in daily output compared to the previous period - The U.S. Senate failed to pass the federal government's temporary appropriation bill again on the 4th. This means that the current federal government "shutdown" that started on October 1st is about to break the record of 35 days from late 2018 to early 2019 and become the longest "shutdown" in U.S. history [2] 3.7 Key Points of Attention The weekly output, in-plant inventory, and social inventory of rebar on Thursday [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View On Wednesday, the I2601 contract first declined and then rebounded. Macroeconomically, the U.S. Senate failed to pass the federal government's temporary appropriation bill again on the 4th, and the federal government's "shutdown" will set a record. In terms of supply and demand, the iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased this period, while the arrival volume increased significantly. The domestic port inventory has increased for six consecutive weeks. The daily average pig iron output continued to decline, weakening the demand support. Coupled with the weak steel market squeezing furnace materials. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are operating at a low level. The operation suggestion is to short on rebounds and pay attention to risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the I main contract was 776.00 yuan/ton, up 0.50 yuan; the position volume was 544,659 lots, down 3,095 lots [2]. - The price difference between the I 1 - 5 contracts was 22 yuan/ton, up 2.50 yuan; the net position of the top 20 in the I contract was - 22,121 lots, down 8,273 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipts of the I Dalian Commodity Exchange were 1,000.00 lots, unchanged [2]. - The quotation of the Singapore iron ore main contract as of 15:00 was 103.65 US dollars/ton, down 1.40 US dollars [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 843 yuan/dry ton, down 4 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 840 yuan/dry ton, down 5 yuan [2]. - The price of 56.5% Super Special fines at Jingtang Port was 770 yuan/dry ton, down 2 yuan; the basis of the I main contract (Mac fines dry ton - main contract) was 64 yuan, down 6 yuan [2]. - The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) was 104.60 US dollars/ton, down 1.25 US dollars; the ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac fines at Qingdao Port was 3.23, up 0.03 [2]. - The estimated import cost was 853 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipment volume (weekly) was 3,213.80 million tons, down 174.50 million tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China (weekly) was 3,314.10 million tons, up 1,229.80 million tons [2]. - The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) was 15,272.93 million tons, up 163.44 million tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) was 8,849.86 million tons, down 229.33 million tons [2]. - The iron ore import volume (monthly) was 11,633.00 million tons, up 1,111.00 million tons; the available days of iron ore (weekly) were 23.00 days, up 4 days [2]. - The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) was 40.35 million tons, up 0.20 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) was 63.97%, up 0.47% [2]. - The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) was 47.75 million tons, up 0.30 million tons; the BDI index was 1,958.00, up 13.00 [2]. - The iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was 22.99 US dollars/ton, down 0.02 US dollars; the iron ore freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was 9.485 US dollars/ton, up 0.37 US dollars [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 81.73%, down 3.00%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 88.59%, down 1.33% [2]. - The domestic crude steel output (monthly) was 7,349 million tons, down 388 million tons [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The historical 20 - day volatility of the underlying (daily) was 18.33%, down 0.05%; the historical 40 - day volatility of the underlying (daily) was 16.21%, down 0.09% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) was 16.53%, up 0.56%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) was 14.55%, down 0.93% [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From October 27 to November 2, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3,213.8 million tons, a decrease of 174.5 million tons compared with the previous period. The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2,759.2 million tons. The Brazilian shipment volume was 864.1 million tons, a decrease of 77.5 million tons compared with the previous period [2]. - From October 27 to November 2, 2025, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 3,314.1 million tons, an increase of 1,229.8 million tons compared with the previous period; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 3,218.4 million tons, an increase of 1,189.3 million tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1,585.9 million tons, an increase of 490.0 million tons [2].