Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that with the increasing expectation of a Fed rate cut in September and rising tariff disturbances leading to fluctuating market sentiment, the main contract of coke should be treated as oscillating [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - **Macro Aspect**: The China Iron and Steel Association held a meeting to discuss "controlling production capacity, combating involution, strengthening collaboration, and promoting transformation." The Ministry of Transport, Ministry of Finance, and Ministry of Natural Resources issued a plan to renovate 300,000 kilometers of rural roads by 2027. Overseas, Trump proposed a 100% tariff on chips and semiconductors, and Apple promised a $600 billion investment. Trump also imposed a 25% additional tariff on Indian goods, and India is negotiating within a 21 - day window [7]. - **Supply - Demand Aspect**: Raw material inventory has increased, and the current iron - water production is 242.23 tons, a decrease of 0.39 tons. The coal mine inventory pressure has eased, and the coking coal inventory has increased for 4 consecutive weeks. The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 16 yuan/ton [7]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the coke main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Given the increasing expectation of a Fed rate cut in September, tariff disturbances, and fluctuating market sentiment, the main contract of coke should be considered to be oscillating [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of August 8, the contract position increased by 428 lots, the coke 1 - 9 contract spread increased by 41.50 points, the registered warehouse receipt increased by 40 lots, and the futures steel - coke ratio decreased by 0.08 points [9][11][16]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 7, the coke flat - price at Rizhao Port increased by 150 yuan/ton, and the coke basis decreased by 66.50. From January to June, the output of industrial raw coal above designated size was 2.4 billion tons, a 5.4% year - on - year increase. In June, the output was 420 million tons, a 3.0% year - on - year increase. In June 2025, China's coking coal output was 4.06438 million tons, a 4.91% year - on - year decrease [26][30]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Coking Industry**: The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 16 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises increased by 0.27% to 73.75%, and the daily coke output increased by 0.19 to 52.02. Coke inventory decreased by 1.89 to 44.63, coking coal inventory decreased by 11.31 to 832.75, and the available days of coking coal decreased by 0.21 days to 12.0 days [32][34]. - **Downstream**: The daily average iron - water output of 247 steel mills was 240.32 tons, a decrease of 0.39 tons from last week but an increase of 8.62 tons compared to last year. As of August 1, 2025, the total coke inventory increased by 6.24 tons to 884.59 tons, a 15.17% year - on - year increase. In terms of inventory structure, port inventory increased, and steel mill inventory decreased [36][38][40]. - **Other Data**: In June, China exported 510,000 tons of coke and semi - coke, a 41.3% year - on - year decrease, and the cumulative export from January to June was 3.51 million tons, a 27.9% year - on - year decrease. In July, China exported 9.836 million tons of steel, a 1.6% month - on - month increase, and the cumulative export from January to July was 67.983 million tons, an 11.4% year - on - year increase. In June 2025, the second - hand housing price index in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 0.30% month - on - month. As of the week of August 3, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - medium cities increased by 15.22% month - on - month but decreased by 15.43% year - on - year [45][47][49].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Due to high inventory and high warehouse receipts, the main contract of caustic soda futures declined significantly this week. The purchase price of Shandong alumina enterprises decreased, leading to a drop in the price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong. Next week, there are many planned maintenance devices in the Northwest, East, and North China, which may cause a slight decline in the capacity utilization rate of caustic soda. The weak trend of Shandong liquid caustic soda prices may continue. In terms of futures, the decline of the SH2509 contract may be restricted by the delivery logic, and SH2601 is expected to fluctuate weakly [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Summary - **Price**: As of August 8, 2025, the SH2509 contract closed at 2,446 yuan/ton, down 3.66% from last week's close. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong dropped to 2,500 yuan/ton [8]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply side, the capacity utilization rate of caustic soda increased by 1.2% week - on - week to 85.1%. Demand side, the alumina operating rate increased by 0.13% week - on - week to 85.58% last week; the viscose staple fiber operating rate remained stable at 84.97% this week, and the printing and dyeing operating rate increased by 0.38% week - on - week to 59.28%. Inventory, the liquid caustic soda factory inventory increased by 8.84% week - on - week to 46.17 tons. The profit of Shandong chlor - alkali increased by 45 yuan/ton to 278 yuan/ton compared with last week [8]. - **Outlook**: Next week, the capacity utilization rate of caustic soda may decline slightly. The alumina industry is expected to operate stably, while the non - aluminum downstream is in the off - season with weak demand. The price of Shandong liquid caustic soda may continue to be weak. In the futures market, the decline of SH2509 may be restricted, and SH2601 is expected to fluctuate weakly [8]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: The main contract of caustic soda futures declined significantly this week, and the position of the 09 contract decreased slightly [9]. - **Spot Market - Shandong 32% Liquid Caustic Soda**: The benchmark price is 800 yuan/ton, and the converted - to - 100% price is 2,500 yuan/ton. The spot decline is less than that of futures, and the market is slightly at a discount [14][20]. - **Spot Market - Other Regions' 32% Liquid Caustic Soda**: The market price in Henan is 912 yuan/ton, with a converted - to - 100% price of 2,850 yuan/ton; in Inner Mongolia, it is 880 yuan/ton, with a converted - to - 100% price of 2,750 yuan/ton [25][30]. - **Spot Market - Shandong 99% Flake Caustic Soda and Liquid Chlorine**: The ex - factory price of 99% flake caustic soda in Shandong is 3,350 yuan/ton, and the price of liquid chlorine is - 150 yuan/ton [35]. 3. Industry Situation - **Upstream - Raw Salt**: The prices of raw salt in the Northwest and Shandong remained stable [41]. - **Upstream - Steam Coal**: The price of Qinhuangdao 5500K steam coal rose to 678 yuan/ton [46]. - **Industry Chain - Supply**: In July, the caustic soda output was 3.5833 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.88%. This week, the operating rate rose to 85.1% [49]. - **Industry Chain - Demand - Alumina**: In July, the alumina output was 8.0662 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate last week was 85.58% [54]. - **Industry Chain - Demand - Non - Aluminum Downstream**: This week, the operating rate of viscose staple fiber was 84.97%. The prices of alumina and viscose staple fiber were basically stable [58][61]. - **Industry Chain - Import and Export - Import**: In June, the caustic soda import volume was 0.09 million tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to June was 0.42 million tons [67]. - **Industry Chain - Import and Export - Export**: In June, the caustic soda export volume was 35.05 million tons, and the cumulative export volume from January to June was 2.0304 million tons [73]. - **Industry Chain - Inventory - Liquid Caustic Soda Sample Inventory**: The weekly enterprise sample inventory was 46.17 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.84% [78]. - **Industry Chain - Profit - ECU Profit**: This week, the chlor - alkali profit in Shandong increased week - on - week [81]. 4. Option Market Analysis - The 20 - day historical volatility of caustic soda futures was reported at 27.93%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options was around 24.57% [84].

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.08.08」 沪铜市场周报 成本支撑供需放缓，沪铜或将震荡运行 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 「 周度要点小结」 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 「 期现市场情况」 本周沪铜合约走强，现货升水 图1、主力合约收盘及持仓 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 180000 200000 220000 240000 260000 280000 50000 55000 60000 65000 70000 75000 80000 85000 2024-09-04 2024-11-04 2025-01-04 2025-03-04 2025-05-04 2025-07-04 主力合约收盘价及持仓 CUZL.SHF CUZL.SHF 图2、铜价期现基差走势 -1,500 -1,000 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500 64000 66000 68000 70000 72000 74000 76000 78000 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, there was insufficient positive driving force, and the rebound of rubber prices was limited. The import rubber market had active restocking by early buyers, and factory inquiries were based on rigid demand. The spot offer of domestic natural rubber followed the upward trend of the market, but the downstream buying enthusiasm was average, and the actual transactions in the market were mainly based on rigid demand [6]. - Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. Continuous rainfall in Yunnan has significantly hindered tapping operations, and the purchase price has remained high and volatile. The weather in Hainan is favorable, and raw material supply has maintained seasonal output. However, the spot market has faced difficulties in price - adding transactions, and some processing plants have become more cautious about high - priced raw materials, with the purchase price of latex stabilizing after rising [6]. - Recently, the total spot inventory at Qingdao ports has been decreasing, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory reduction. The arrival and warehousing of overseas supplies have remained low, and the overall warehousing rate has decreased month - on - month. The decline in rubber prices has stimulated downstream tire enterprises to replenish inventory at low prices to some extent, and the overall outbound volume has increased month - on - month [6]. - In terms of demand, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises has fluctuated slightly this week. Some semi - steel tire enterprises have stopped or reduced production, dragging down the overall capacity utilization rate. Some overhauled all - steel tire enterprises have resumed work and moderately increased production, driving up the overall capacity utilization rate. However, some enterprises have still arranged overhauls, limiting the increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. In the short term, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises may be slightly adjusted, with limited overall fluctuation [6]. - The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,250 - 16,000 in the short term, and the nr2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,300 - 12,800 in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the driving force for rubber prices was insufficient, and the rebound was limited. The import rubber market had active restocking, and domestic natural rubber spot prices followed the market upward, but downstream buying was mainly for rigid demand [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. Yunnan has been affected by rainfall, while Hainan has normal weather. Qingdao port inventory is decreasing, and the demand for domestic tires has limited fluctuations [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The ru2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 15,250 - 16,000, and the nr2510 contract between 12,300 - 12,800 [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets 3.2.1 Futures Market - **Price Trends**: The main contract price of Shanghai rubber futures closed up this week, with a week - on - week increase of 2.57%. The main contract price of 20 - grade rubber also closed up, with a week - on - week increase of 2% [11]. - **Position Analysis**: No specific analysis content is provided in the text. - **Inter - period Spreads**: As of August 8, the spread between September and January contracts of Shanghai rubber was - 975, and the spread between September and October contracts of 20 - grade rubber was - 60 [20]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of August 8, the warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber were 176,320 tons, a decrease of 1,310 tons from last week. The warehouse receipts of 20 - grade rubber were 42,437 tons, an increase of 2,721 tons from last week [25]. 3.2.2 Spot Market - **Domestic Natural Rubber Spot Prices**: As of August 7, the price of state - owned full - latex was 14,550 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [29]. - **Basis Trends**: As of August 7, the basis of 20 - grade rubber was 339 yuan/ton, a decrease of 57 yuan/ton from last week. The non - standard basis was - 1,175 yuan/ton, a decrease of 915 yuan/ton from last week [37]. 3.3 Industry Conditions 3.3.1 Upstream - **Thailand's Raw Material Prices and Processing Profits**: As of August 7, the field latex price in Thailand's natural rubber raw material market was 54 (- 0.3) Thai baht/kg, and the cup lump price was 48.3 (+ 0.5) Thai baht/kg. As of August 8, the theoretical processing profit of standard rubber was 42 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4.6 US dollars/ton from last week [41]. - **Domestic Producing Areas' Raw Material Prices**: As of August 7, the latex price in Yunnan was 14,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week, and the fresh latex price in Hainan was 14,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 800 yuan/ton from last week [44]. 3.3.2 Import Volume - In June 2025, China's natural rubber (including technical - grade, latex, smoked sheets, primary forms, mixed rubber, and compound rubber) imports were 463,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.21% and a year - on - year increase of 33.95%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume was 3.1257 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 26.47% [47]. 3.3.3 Inventory in Qingdao - As of August 3, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 631,800 tons, a decrease of 8,600 tons from the previous period, a decline of 1.35%. The bonded area inventory was 75,500 tons, a decline of 0.40%, and the general trade inventory was 556,300 tons, a decline of 1.47%. The warehousing rate of sample bonded warehouses in Qingdao increased by 1.66 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.12 percentage points. The warehousing rate of general trade warehouses decreased by 2.01 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.85 percentage points [51]. 3.3.4 Downstream - **Tire Capacity Utilization Rate**: As of August 7, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.71%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.27 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 9.93 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of China's full - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.06%, a month - on - month increase of 0.80 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 0.73 percentage points [54]. - **Tire Exports**: In June 2025, China's tire exports were 717,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.31%. From January to June, China's cumulative tire exports were 4.1213 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.34%. Among them, the exports of passenger car tires were 279,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.76%. The cumulative exports from January to June were 1.6144 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.62%. The exports of truck and bus tires were 407,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.00% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.11%. The cumulative exports from January to June were 2.3347 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5.34% [57]. - **Domestic Demand (Heavy - Truck Sales)**: In July 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of 15% compared with June and a year - on - year increase of about 42% compared with 58,300 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to July this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market were about 622,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 11% [60]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis No relevant content provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated and adjusted, with a weekly increase of about 0.11%, while the cotton yarn futures contract declined by 0.78%. Domestically, cotton is in a destocking state, with a tight supply before the new cotton goes on the market, and the basis is firm. On the demand side, the textile industry shows characteristics of the off - season, the overall operating rate continues to decline, and enterprises purchase raw materials mainly for rigid demand. In 2025, the overall planting area of Chinese cotton has increased, and attention should be paid to the impact of weather on new crop growth. Overall, due to the weak downstream demand and market expectations for quotas, it is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the USDA monthly supply - demand report [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Analysis**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2601 fluctuated and adjusted this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.11%, and the cotton yarn futures 2511 contract declined by 0.78% [7]. - **Market Outlook**: U.S. cotton futures prices are weak. Domestically, cotton is destocking, supply is tight before new cotton is available, and the basis is strong. The textile industry is in the off - season, with reduced profits for inland spinning enterprises, a continuous decline in the overall operating rate, and enterprises purchasing raw materials mainly for rigid demand. The overall planting area of Chinese cotton in 2025 has increased, and attention should be paid to the impact of high temperatures in Xinjiang on new crop growth. It is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the USDA monthly supply - demand report [7]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to changes in foreign cotton prices, macro - factors, trade policies, and weather factors [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **U.S. Cotton Market**: The price of the U.S. cotton December contract declined this week, with a weekly decline of about 0.45%. As of July 29, 2025, the non - commercial long positions of ICE No. 2 cotton increased by 1.09% month - on - month, the non - commercial short positions increased by 0.33% month - on - month, and the CFTC net position increased by 1.47% month - on - month [10]. - **U.S. Cotton Export**: As of the week ending July 31, U.S. cotton export shipments were 182,300 bales, with the total export shipments reaching 11,191,200 bales, a 1% increase from the previous year. The net increase in cotton export sales for the week was 92,100 bales. As of August 5, 2025, the Cotlook:A index was reported at 77.75 cents per pound, a 0.32% increase month - on - month [15]. - **Futures Market**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton 2601 fluctuated and adjusted this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.11%, and the cotton yarn futures 2511 contract declined by 0.78%. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 20,574, and that in cotton yarn futures was 119 lots. The number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 8,252, and that of cotton yarn futures was 83 [23][29][34]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 8, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,178 yuan per ton, and the spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20,620 yuan per ton. As of August 7, 2025, the CY index:OEC10s (air - jet yarn) was 14,760 yuan per ton [44][54]. - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of August 6, 2025, the import cotton price index (FC Index):M:1% quota port pick - up price was reported at 13,480 yuan per ton, a 0.44% increase month - on - month; the import cotton price index (FC Index):M:sliding - scale duty port pick - up price was reported at 14,282 yuan per ton, a 0.34% increase month - on - month. The import cotton yarn price index (FCY Index):port pick - up price:C32S was reported at 21,206 yuan per ton, with no month - on - month change [58]. - **Imported Cotton Cost - Profit**: As of August 6, 2025, the cost - profit of imported cotton sliding - scale duty port pick - up price (M) was 896 yuan per ton; the cost - profit of imported cotton quota port pick - up price (1%) was 1,698 yuan per ton [61]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Supply Side - Inventory**: As of June, the total national commercial cotton inventory was 2.8298 million tons, a month - on - month decline of 18.18%. As of June 15, the in - stock industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 930,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.17% [65]. - **Supply Side - Import Volume**: In June 2025, China imported about 30,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of about 82.1%. From January to June, the total imported cotton was 460,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 74.3%. In June 2025, the import volume of cotton yarn was 110,000 tons, and from January to June, the cumulative imported cotton yarn was 670,000 tons [69]. - **Mid - end Industry - Demand**: As of June 15, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 23.864 days, a month - on - month increase of 6.8%, and the grey fabric inventory was 35.46 days, a month - on - month increase of 7.81% [73]. - **Terminal Consumption - Export**: As of June 30, 2025, the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics, and products was reported at 1,204,820,700 US dollars, a month - on - month decline of 4.62%. The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was reported at 1,526,671,400 US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 12.44% [77]. - **Downstream Terminal Consumption - Domestic Retail**: As of June 30, 2025, the cumulative retail value of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles was reported at 742.59 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 20.98%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate was reported at 3.1%, a month - on - month decline of 6.06% [81]. 3.4 Options and Stock Market - Related Markets - **Options Market**: Information on the implied volatility of at - the - money options in the cotton options market this week was provided [82]. - **Stock Market - Xinong Development**: Information on the price - earnings ratio trend of Xinong Development was provided [88].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, styrene lacked unilateral driving factors, and the futures main contract EB2509 oscillated slightly in the range of 7,215 - 7,355 yuan/ton. As of August 8, 2025, the EB2509 contract closed at 7,235 yuan/ton, down 0.84% from last week's closing price [7]. - On the supply side, a new 670,000 - ton Jingbo plant was put into operation, and the operating loads of some plants were adjusted. This week, styrene production decreased by 0.64% month - on - month to 359,200 tons, and the capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.19% month - on - month to 77.73% [7]. - On the demand side, the operating rates of styrene downstream industries changed differently this week. The EPS operating rate decreased by 10.58% month - on - month to 43.67%, the PS operating rate increased by 1.7% month - on - month to 55%, the ABS operating rate increased by 5.2% month - on - month to 71.1%, the UPR operating rate increased by 1% month - on - month to 30%, and the styrene - butadiene rubber operating rate decreased by 0.07% month - on - month to 73.35% [7]. - In terms of inventory, this week, styrene factory inventory decreased by 2.71% month - on - month to 211,500 tons, East China port inventory decreased by 3.05% month - on - month to 159,000 tons, and South China port inventory increased by 4.73% month - on - month to 15,500 tons [7]. - In terms of cost, this week, the average spot price of pure benzene in East China decreased slightly, the CFR Northeast Asia ethylene price remained stable, the non - integrated cost of styrene dropped to 7,563.15 yuan/ton, and due to the weak styrene spot, the non - integrated profit of styrene dropped to - 218 yuan/ton [7]. - Looking ahead, next week, the output of the new Jingbo plant will increase, and the impact of restarted plants in Northeast and North China will expand. Production and capacity utilization are expected to increase month - on - month. The non - integrated profit has fallen to a loss level, and in the long - term, the high - operating state of plants may be difficult to sustain. Recently, the EPS plants under centralized maintenance are about to restart, and some PS and ABS plants plan to increase production. Short - term demand is expected to increase. However, the poor demand in downstream industries and the expectation of finished product inventory accumulation may suppress the growth of styrene demand. Styrene supply and demand will both increase, but overall, the situation of supply exceeding demand is expected to continue, and inventory pressure may continue to rise. In terms of cost, the impact of OPEC+ production increase continues, the demand in the US fuel peak season still exists, and a meeting between the US and Russian presidents is upcoming. International oil prices are expected to oscillate. The premium or discount of the EB2509 contract is not large, and in the short - term, it is expected to oscillate in the range of around 7,200 - 7,400 yuan/ton [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - Price: The futures main contract EB2509 oscillated slightly in the range of 7,215 - 7,355 yuan/ton, closing at 7,235 yuan/ton on August 8, 2025, down 0.84% from last week [7]. - Fundamentals: Supply - side: New plant put into operation, production decreased by 0.64% to 359,200 tons, capacity utilization decreased by 1.19% to 77.73%. Demand - side: Downstream operating rates changed differently. Inventory: Factory inventory decreased by 2.71% to 211,500 tons, East China port inventory decreased by 3.05% to 159,000 tons, South China port inventory increased by 4.73% to 15,500 tons. Cost: Non - integrated cost dropped to 7,563.15 yuan/ton, non - integrated profit dropped to - 218 yuan/ton [7]. - Outlook: Next week, production and capacity utilization are expected to increase. Short - term demand may increase, but overall supply exceeds demand, and inventory pressure may rise. International oil prices are expected to oscillate, and the EB2509 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of around 7,200 - 7,400 yuan/ton [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: The EB futures main contract oscillated in a range, new warehouse receipts were registered this week. The 09 contract's position - changing is about to start, and the position volume decreased. The 09 - 10 spread oscillated slightly [8][12]. - Spot Market: The spot price fluctuated in a range, and the futures price had a slight premium [16]. 3.3 Industrial Situation - Upstream: Ethylene price fluctuated slightly, East China pure benzene price rebounded after a decline. In June, ethylene production decreased month - on - month, and imports increased month - on - month [22][26]. - Supply: In July, there was no new styrene production capacity. Production was 1.6011 million tons, up 5.83% month - on - month and 22.96% year - on - year. The production capacity base increased, but the operating rate decreased month - on - month [32][36]. - Demand: EPS, PS, and ABS prices dropped slightly. Downstream operating rates changed differently. This week, the EPS operating rate decreased, while the PS, ABS, and UPR operating rates increased, and the styrene - butadiene rubber operating rate decreased [39][44][48][53]. - Import and Export: In June, styrene imports were 21,400 tons, up month - on - month and year - on - year; exports were 14,500 tons, down month - on - month and year - on - year [56]. - Inventory: Port inventory was 174,500 tons, factory inventory was 211,500 tons. East China port inventory was 159,000 tons, South China port inventory was 15,500 tons [61][65]. - Cost and Profit: Non - integrated cost decreased, and process losses increased. Import profit continued to be in the red, and the import window was closed [69][73]. 3.4 Options Market Analysis - The 20 - day historical volatility of the styrene main contract was reported at 18.88%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money options was around 18.53% [77].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The macro - aspect shows that the Fed's expectation of a September interest rate cut is rising, and tariff disturbances are increasing, leading to repeated fluctuations in market sentiment. The silicon - iron main contract should be treated as oscillating [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Macro**: On July 30, the China Iron and Steel Association's meeting focused on "controlling production capacity, combating involution, strengthening collaboration, and promoting transformation". The new rural highway improvement plan aims to reconstruct 300,000 kilometers of rural roads by 2027 [6]. - **Overseas**: Trump proposed about 100% tariffs on chips and semiconductors, with Apple promising a $600 billion investment. Trump also imposed a 25% additional tariff on Indian goods, and India is negotiating within a 21 - day window [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: After profit improvement, production has rebounded rapidly in recent weeks, and inventory has also increased. The price of Ningxia semi - coke has risen, and steel demand is generally weak. Inner Mongolia's spot profit is 1 yuan/ton, and Ningxia's is 150 yuan/ton [6]. - **Technical**: The weekly K - line of the silicon - iron main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish weekly trend [6]. - **Strategy**: Treat the silicon - iron main contract as oscillating due to the macro - situation [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of August 8, the silicon - iron futures contract's open interest was 463,000 lots, a week - on - week increase of 63,000 lots. The 1 - 9 contract monthly spread was 186, a week - on - week increase of 56 points. The warehouse receipt quantity was 19,646, a week - on - week decrease of 2,396. The Ningxia silicon - iron price was 5,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week [12][17]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 8, the silicon - iron basis was - 242 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 70 points [20]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Production**: This week (August 7), the national silicon - iron capacity utilization rate was 34.32%, a week - on - week increase of 0.56%. The daily average output was 15,590 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.45% (665 tons). The five major steel types' silicon - iron weekly demand was 20,266.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.73%, and the national silicon - iron weekly supply was 109,100 tons [26]. - **Inventory**: This week (August 7), the national silicon - iron inventory was 71,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9.42% (6,180 tons). Inner Mongolia's inventory increased by 6,400 tons to 40,800 tons, while Ningxia's decreased by 300 tons to 9,100 tons [29]. - **Upstream**: As of August 4, the electricity prices in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia for silicon - manganese and silicon - iron were unchanged. As of August 7, the average price of Ningxia semi - coke was 636 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 45 yuan/ton [35]. - **Downstream**: This week, the daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.4032 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 390,000 tons but an increase of 862,000 tons compared to last year. From January to June 2025, the total silicon - iron export volume was 200,100 tons, a 10.09% decrease compared to the same period last year [47].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the price of the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract decreased by about 0.84%. Globally, the production prospects of major sugar - producing countries in Asia are favorable, and Brazil shows strong production signs, leading to a loose supply expectation and pressuring the raw sugar price. In China, the profit outside the quota remains relatively high, releasing import pressure. Beet sugar will start production in September, increasing supply temporarily. On the demand side, due to the hot summer, the food and beverage industry has restocking needs, and seasonal consumption such as cold drinks is picking up. Currently, the inventory pressure is not large, but the increase in processed sugar has significantly slowed down the de - stocking process. The estimated sugar production for the 2025/26 season is 1120 million tons, a slight increase of 4 million tons year - on - year, remaining at a high level in the past four years. Overall, the expected increase in imports and weak spot prices are dragging the sugar futures price to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to conduct short - side trading [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - Future factors to watch: consumption, and exports of Brazilian and Indian sugar. The import expectation increase and weak spot prices are dragging the sugar futures price to fluctuate weakly. It is advisable to conduct short - side trading [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: The price of the ICE US Sugar 10 - month contract decreased by about 1.05% this week. As of July 29, 2025, the non - commercial long positions of ICE No. 11 sugar were 199,477 contracts, a 0.36% increase from the previous period; the non - commercial short positions were 261,625 contracts, a 1.21% increase; the non - commercial net positions were - 62,148 contracts, a 4.05% decrease. The top 20 net positions of Zhengzhou sugar futures were - 30,938 lots, and the Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts were 18,545 contracts [11][20]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 8, the sugar price in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 6030 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5830 yuan/ton. As of August 5, the estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5584 yuan/ton, a 0.82% decrease; inside the quota, it was 4398 yuan/ton, a 0.79% decrease. The estimated import processing price of Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5683 yuan/ton, a 0.79% decrease; inside the quota, it was 4474 yuan/ton, a 0.75% decrease. As of August 5, the profit of imported Brazilian sugar inside the quota was 1457 yuan/ton, a 0.62% increase from last week; outside the quota, it was 271 yuan/ton, a 7.97% increase. The profit of imported Thai sugar inside the quota was 1381 yuan/ton, a 0.58% increase; outside the quota, it was 172 yuan/ton, a 12.42% increase [24][27][33]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side**: The 2024/25 sugar - making season ended in late May 2025. The national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.1989 million tons or 12.03%. As of May 30, 2025, the industrial inventory was 3.0483 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3221 million tons. In June 2025, China imported 420,000 tons of sugar, a significant year - on - year increase, but the cumulative import from January to June was only 1.04 million tons, a 19.7% year - on - year decrease [37][41][45]. - **Demand Side**: As of May 31, 2025, the cumulative national sugar sales were 8.1138 million tons, a 12.00% increase from the previous period, and the sales rate was 72.69%, a 11.45% increase. As of June 30, 2025, the monthly output of refined sugar was 337,000 tons, a 10.61% decrease from the previous period; the monthly output of soft drinks was 1.84285 million tons, a 14.24% increase [49][54]. 3.4 Option and Stock - related Markets - **Option Market**: Information about the implied volatility of the at - the - money options of sugar this week is presented, but specific data is not summarized here. - **Stock Market**: Information about Nanning Sugar Industry's price - to - earnings ratio is presented, but specific data is not summarized here.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The silicon-manganese market is expected to fluctuate. The Fed's September interest rate cut expectation is rising, tariff disturbances are increasing, and market sentiment is fluctuating. Macro - policies support the industry, and the supply - demand situation shows that production has been rising since mid - May, inventory has declined for 5 consecutive weeks, and the cost and profit situation varies by region. Technically, the weekly K - line of manganese - silicon is bearish [6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Weekly Summary - **Macro - aspect**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is about to issue growth - promoting plans for industries such as machinery, automobiles, and power equipment. The "two major" construction project list of 800 billion yuan and 735 billion yuan of central budgetary investment have been basically allocated. Overseas, there are military threats from the US to Russia, a planned Putin - Trump summit, and the US may impose an additional 15% tariff on Japan [6]. - **Supply - demand**: Production has been rising since mid - May, inventory has declined for 5 consecutive weeks to a neutral level. The port inventory of imported manganese ore has decreased by 100,000 tons, and the downstream hot - metal production is at a high level. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 120 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 70 yuan/ton. The steel mill procurement price in July has increased, and attention should be paid to the steel - making tender price in August [6]. - **Technical**: The weekly K - line of the manganese - silicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [6]. - **Strategy**: Treat the silicon - manganese market as fluctuating due to the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September, more tariff disturbances, and volatile market sentiment [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of August 8, the silicon - manganese futures contract open interest was 623,000 lots, a decrease of 35,000 lots from the previous period. The spread between the 1 - 9 contracts was 98, an increase of 24 points. The manganese - silicon warehouse receipt quantity was 76,045, a decrease of 1,809. The spread between the manganese - silicon and silicon - iron main contracts was 274, a decrease of 6 points [12][16]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 8, the Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese spot price was 5,870 yuan/ton, an increase of 70 yuan/ton. The basis was - 176 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 points [24]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Production and Demand**: The operating rate of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises was 43.43%, an increase of 1.25%. The daily output was 27,975 tons, an increase of 715 tons. The weekly demand for five major steel types of silicon - manganese was 125,200 tons, an increase of 1.20%, and the weekly supply was 195,825 tons, an increase of 2.62% [27]. - **Inventory**: As of August 7, the inventory of 63 independent silicon - manganese enterprises was 161,500 tons, a decrease of 2,500 tons. Inventory in different regions showed different changes [32]. - **Upstream**: The price of South African manganese ore in Tianjin Port decreased by 3 yuan/ton - degree to 34 yuan/ton - degree, and the Australian manganese ore price remained unchanged at 51 yuan/ton - degree. The electricity prices in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia remained unchanged. The port inventory of imported manganese ore decreased by 110,000 tons to 4.385 million tons. The arrival volume of manganese ore from South Africa, Australia, and Gabon decreased significantly. The northern region's spot production profit was - 85 yuan/ton, and the southern region's was - 410 yuan/ton [38][44][48]. - **Downstream**: The daily average hot - metal production of 247 steel mills was 2.4032 million tons, a decrease of 3,900 tons from the previous week but an increase of 86,200 tons compared to last year. The Hebei Steel silicon - manganese tender price in July was 5,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton compared to June [50].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2350 - 2420 in the short term [7] - The overall domestic methanol market is boosted by the macro - environment, but the port methanol market has limited upward space due to high import expectations. The port market shows an oscillating and weakening trend, while the inland market rises [8] - Recently, the output of the restored methanol production capacity is less than the loss of the overhauled and reduced - production capacity, leading to a slight decrease in the overall output [8] - The inventory of inland enterprises decreases this week, while the port inventory accumulates significantly. The olefin industry's starting rate rises slightly this week but is expected to decline next week [8] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1. Week - on - Week Summary - Strategy suggestion: The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the 2350 - 2420 range [7] - Market trend: The average price of the domestic port methanol market drops this week, with an oscillating and weakening trend. The inland market rises, with the price in the Ordos northern line ranging from 2065 - 2110 yuan/ton and the downstream Dongying receiving price ranging from 2320 - 2345 yuan/ton [8] - Outlook: The overall methanol output decreases slightly. Inland enterprise inventory decreases, and port inventory accumulates. The olefin industry's starting rate rises slightly this week but may decline next week [8] 3.2. Futures Market - Price trend: The price of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract oscillates and closes down this week, with a decline of 0.42% [13] - Inter - period spread: As of August 8, the MA 9 - 1 spread is - 92 [17] - Position analysis: Not provided in the content - Warehouse receipts: As of August 7, the Zhengzhou methanol warehouse receipts are 8688, an increase of 142 compared with last week [25] 3.3. Spot Market - Domestic price: As of August 8, the mainstream price in East China's Taicang area is 2382.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton compared with last week; the mainstream price in Northwest Inner Mongolia is 2105 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton compared with last week. The price difference between East China and Northwest is 277.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton compared with last week [31] - Foreign price: As of August 7, the CFR price of methanol at the Chinese main port is 270 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 dollars/ton compared with last week. The price difference between Southeast Asia and the Chinese main port is 63 dollars/ton, an increase of 2 dollars/ton compared with last week [37] - Basis: As of August 8, the Zhengzhou methanol basis is - 0.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton compared with last week [41] 3.4. Industrial Chain Analysis - Upstream: As of August 6, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal is 670 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton compared with last week. As of August 7, the NYMEX natural gas closes at 3.08 dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.02 dollars/million British thermal units compared with last week [44] - Industry: As of August 7, China's methanol output is 1845225 tons, a decrease of 67900 tons compared with last week, and the capacity utilization rate is 81.61%, a decrease of 3.55% month - on - month [50] - Inventory: As of August 6, the total port inventory is 92.55 tons, an increase of 11.71 tons compared with the previous period. The inventory of sample production enterprises is 29.37 tons, a decrease of 3.08 tons compared with the previous period, a decrease of 9.50% month - on - month; the order backlog of sample enterprises is 24.08 tons, an increase of 1.01 tons compared with the previous period, an increase of 4.37% month - on - month [53] - Import: In June 2025, China's methanol import volume is 122.02 tons, a decrease of 5.58% compared with last week. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume is 537.73 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.68%. As of August 7, the methanol import profit is 41.04 yuan/ton, an increase of 20.4 yuan/ton compared with last week [56] - Downstream: As of August 7, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants is 85.11%, an increase of 1.5% month - on - month. As of August 8, the domestic methanol - to - olefin on - paper profit is - 887 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton compared with last week [59][62] 3.5. Option Market Analysis - Not provided in the content