Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, industrial silicon prices are expected to decline with a small range. Southwest regions will see production cuts while northwest regions increase production. Demand from polysilicon is uncertain, while demand from silicone and aluminum alloy is relatively stable. Cost provides support for prices, but high inventory restricts upward price movement. It is recommended to buy on dips [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 9,155 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the position of the main contract was 227,764 lots, up 7,102 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 57,526 lots, down 3,468 lots; the warehouse receipts of GZEE were 47,410 lots, up 72 lots; the closing price of the December contract was - 395 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the spread between November - December contracts was - 395 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - blown 553 silicon was 9,450 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the average price of 421 silicon was 9,700 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the basis of the Si main contract was 295 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan; the DMC spot price was 11,275 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The average prices of silica, petroleum coke, clean coal, wood chips, and graphite electrodes (400mm) were 410 yuan/ton, 2,110 yuan/ton, 1,850 yuan/ton, 490 yuan/ton, and 12,250 yuan/ton respectively, all unchanged [2] Industry Situation - Industrial silicon monthly production was 402,800 tons, up 36,000 tons; social inventory was 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; monthly imports were 1,939.85 tons, up 602.27 tons; monthly exports were 70,232.72 tons, down 6,409.29 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The weekly production of silicone DMC was 44,900 tons, up 700 tons; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 15.85 US dollars/kg; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot market was 21,100 yuan/ton; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 23,495.34 tons, down 5,568.37 tons; the weekly operating rate of silicone DMC was 70.05%, up 0.69 percentage points; the monthly production of aluminum alloy was 1.776 million tons, up 141,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 23,495.34 tons, down 5,568.37 tons [2] Industry News - In the first half of 2025, China's wind and photovoltaic power generation capacity exceeded thermal power for the first time, indicating that the energy revolution has entered a deeper stage. In the industrial silicon market, in Sichuan and Yunnan, production costs are rising as they transition from the wet season to the dry season in October, and some enterprises have stopped production. In Xinjiang, production is increasing due to stable and low - cost power supply [2] Demand Analysis - In the silicone segment, inventory is lower than the historical average, production profit has slightly recovered but is still in the loss range, and there is some rigid - demand procurement support. In the polysilicon segment, inventory is as high as 278,300 tons, higher than the historical average, and there is a risk of weakening demand support. In the aluminum alloy segment, the operating rate is stable, demand is high, but the marginal impact on prices is limited [2]

Report Overview - Report Title: Polysilicon Industry Daily Report 2025 - 10 - 30 [2] - Researcher: Huang Wenjie [3] - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03142112 [3] - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0021738 [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Report's Core View - In November - December, the inventory accumulation speed of polysilicon is expected to slow down, but the industry inventory at the end of 2025 will still likely exceed 400,000 tons. The downstream photovoltaic industry chain has weak demand, with component tender prices continuously falling, causing delays in centralized projects and a reduction in the demand for polysilicon from silicon wafers. Although N - type silicon materials maintain a certain premium due to the increasing penetration rate of TOPCon battery technology, the price of ordinary materials is approaching the cost line, and the industry's overall gross profit margin is narrowing. Internationally, the high inventory in the European market suppresses import demand, and while the loosening of US tariff policies drives the growth of energy storage system exports, it cannot fully offset the negative impact of the European market. However, the emerging markets such as the Middle East and Latin America show a surge in demand, buffering the decline on the demand side to some extent. The market rumor of the relevant authorities' potential policy on strengthening photovoltaic capacity regulation boosts market confidence, and it is recommended to lay out long positions after the price decline [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon is 54,950 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; the open interest of the main contract is 126,052 lots, up 7,622 lots. The basis of polysilicon from December to January is 70, up 20; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 45,795 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of polysilicon is 52,350 yuan/ton, down 630 yuan/ton; the basis of polysilicon is - 2,640 yuan/ton, down 1,265 yuan/ton. The average price of N - type silicon wafers (210R) is 1.36 yuan/piece, unchanged; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 6.51 US dollars/kg, down 0.02 US dollars/kg [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon is 9,155 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; the spot price of industrial silicon is 9,350 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 70,232.72 tons, down 6,409.29 tons; the monthly import volume is 1,939.85 tons, up 602.27 tons. The monthly output of industrial silicon is 402,800 tons, up 36,000 tons; the total social inventory of industrial silicon is 552,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [3]. 3.4产业情况 - The monthly output of polysilicon is 130,000 tons, up 5,000 tons; the monthly import volume of polysilicon is 1,292 tons, up 286 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon materials in China is 6.9 US dollars/kg, up 0.01 US dollars/kg; the monthly average import price of polysilicon is 2,350 US dollars/ton, down 270 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 70,873,000 kilowatts, up 1,016,000 kilowatts. The average price of mainstream photovoltaic modules is 0.74 yuan/W, unchanged; the average price of solar cells is 0.82 yuan/W, up 0.01 yuan/W. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 129,531,200 pieces, down 19,491,300 pieces; the monthly import volume is 14,733,700 pieces, down 6,706,500 pieces. The monthly average import price of photovoltaic modules is 0.3 US dollars/piece, up 0.06 US dollars/piece [3]. 3.6 Industry News - This week, the transaction price range of polysilicon N - type re - feeding materials is 49,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The transaction price range of N - type granular silicon is 50,000 - 51,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 50,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The activity in the domestic polysilicon market is low this week, with a light overall trading atmosphere. The number of mainstream signing enterprises has decreased to 3 - 4, and the order scale has decreased compared with the previous week. Currently, there are 11 domestic polysilicon enterprises in production. In October, the domestic polysilicon output was about 137,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.2%, 5.4% higher than expected, mainly because some enterprises slightly increased the operating rate within the limited production capacity in the fourth quarter to spread costs. The downstream operating rate remains relatively stable. As the dry season approaches in the southwest region in November, the production cost of polysilicon enterprises will increase, and some enterprises have started to reduce raw material input, such as partial bases in Sichuan and Yunnan, which have gradually reduced production recently. The demand side is relatively weak, and the demand in the downstream photovoltaic industry chain is sluggish [3].

锰硅硅铁产业日报 2025/10/30 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,842.00 | -10.00↓ | SF主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,550.00 | -44.00↓ | | | SM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 513,200.00 | -6382.00↓ | SF期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 332,067.00 | +361.00↑ | | 期货市场 | 锰硅前20名净持仓（日，手） | -65,778.00 | +1556.00↑ | 硅铁前20名净持仓（日，手） | -41,551.00 | -8823.00↓ | | | SM5-1月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 48.00 | +10.00↑ | SF5-1月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 98.00 | +10.00↑ | | SM | 仓单（日，张） | 8,100.00 | +8100.00↑ | SF 仓单（日，张） | 2,624.00 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Although some primary lead smelters plan to boost annual production and sales, there are many maintenance activities from October to November, so primary lead production is expected to increase slightly. For recycled lead, smelters affected by Document 770 are gradually resuming production, but raw material inventory levels are low, and waste transportation is affected by environmental protection requirements in the north, so the increase in recycled lead production is limited, and lead ingot spot will remain tight in the short term. It is recommended to short at high prices. After the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays, the weekly operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has significantly rebounded, and the traditional consumption season, along with the replacement market of cars and electric bicycles, supports lead demand. Some leading battery companies have good orders and are expanding energy - storage business, which will further increase lead demand. However, since September, the Shanghai - London ratio of lead ingots has gradually widened, and the export of Chinese lead - acid batteries is under pressure due to tariffs, which will suppress demand growth to some extent. Inventory has been decreasing, but with the expected increase in imported lead arrivals and the possible increase in recycled lead production, inventory may change next week. If the inventory depletion rate slows, it will resist price increases. It is recommended to short at high prices [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 17,350 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote is 2,019 dollars/ton, down 6 dollars. The spread between the December - January contracts of Shanghai lead is - 5 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. The trading volume of Shanghai lead is 119,775 lots, down 2,688 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is 496 lots, up 1,470 lots. Shanghai lead warehouse receipts are 21,645 tons, down 1,352 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory is 36,333 tons, down 5,368 tons; the LME lead inventory is 224,875 tons, down 4,800 tons [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 17,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 17,290 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the lead main contract is - 150 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 35.12 dollars/ton, up 0.42 dollars [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan is 16,671 yuan, up 275 yuan. The price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) is 17,100 yuan/ton, unchanged. The number of recycled lead production enterprises is 68, unchanged. The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 35.56%, down 2.32 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead is 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons. The average weekly operating rate of primary lead is 82.65%, up 1.01 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 3.96 tons, up 0.05 tons. The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports is - 90 dollars/kiloton, unchanged. The global lead ore production is 383.3 kilotons, up 3.4 kilotons; the monthly lead ore import volume is 15.06 tons, up 1.58 tons [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly refined lead import volume is 1,507.92 tons, down 312.63 tons; the monthly refined lead export volume is 1,486.13 tons, down 1,266.09 tons. The average price of waste batteries in the market is 9,967.86 yuan/ton, down 23.21 yuan [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries is 45,696 units, down 3,984 units. The average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, 2% antimony content) is 19,450 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly automobile production is 322.7 tons, up 47.46 tons; the monthly new - energy vehicle production is 158 tons, up 24.7 tons [3] 3.6 Industry News - On October 30, a large recycled lead smelter in East China started the furnace - drying operation on Monday and plans to start formal production this weekend. According to SMM analysis, after resuming production, it is expected to contribute over 10,000 tons to the recycled refined lead production in November, which will have a positive impact on market supply. The Federal Reserve announced a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 30, the JM2601 contract of coking coal closed at 1288.0, up 1.62%. On the spot side, the price of Mongolian No. 5 coking coal in Tangshan was reported at 1460, equivalent to 1240 on the futures market. The Fed cut interest rates as expected, and the probability of a December rate cut decreased. Fundamentally, the mine - end operating rate declined slightly for two consecutive weeks due to safety inspections, the inventory was neutral, the operating rate of coal washing plants declined this period, and the mid - and downstream replenished stocks, with the total inventory showing a seasonal upward trend. Technically, the daily K - line was above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a wide - range shock operation [2]. - On October 30, the J2601 contract of coke closed at 1786.5, up 0.59%. On the spot side, coking plants proposed a third price increase for coke. The Fed's rate cut and the meeting between Chinese and US leaders were finalized, and the market sentiment declined during the day. Fundamentally, on the demand side, the pig iron output continued its seasonal decline this period, with the pig iron output at 239.90 (-1.05 million tons), and the total coke inventory was higher than the same period. In terms of profit, the average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide was - 41 yuan/ton this period. Technically, the daily K - line was above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages. It should be treated as a wide - range shock operation driven by cost [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the JM main contract was 1288.00 yuan/ton, down 14.00; the closing price of the J main contract was 1786.50 yuan/ton, down 14.50. The JM futures contract position was 970861.00 lots, down 15149.00; the J futures contract position was 50050.00 lots, down 515.00. The net position of the top 20 contracts of coking coal was - 63853.00 lots, down 10014.00; the net position of the top 20 contracts of coke was - 5584.00 lots, down 544.00. The JM5 - 1 month contract spread was 71.00 yuan/ton, down 5.50; the J5 - 1 month contract spread was 140.50 yuan/ton, down 2.50. The coking coal warehouse receipt was 0.00, unchanged; the coke warehouse receipt was 2070.00, unchanged [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Ganqimao Mongolian No. 5 raw coal was 1140.00 yuan/ton, up 9.00; the price of Tangshan Grade - 1 metallurgical coke was 1775.00 yuan/ton, up 55.00. The price of Russian main coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 157.50 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - Grade - 1 metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port was 1570.00 yuan/ton, up 50.00. The price of Australian imported main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1700.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Grade - 1 metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1670.00 yuan/ton, up 50.00. The price of Shanxi - produced main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1760.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of quasi - Grade - 1 metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port was 1570.00 yuan/ton, up 50.00. The price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Lingshi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1520.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1280.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the JM main contract was 232.00 yuan/ton, up 14.00; the basis of the J main contract was - 11.50 yuan/ton, up 69.50 [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The refined coal output of 314 independent coal washing plants was 26.50 million tons, down 0.20; the refined coal inventory was 284.40 million tons, down 5.20. The capacity utilization rate was 0.37%, down 0.00. The raw coal output was 41150.50 million tons, up 2100.80. The import volume of coal and lignite was 4600.00 million tons, up 326.00. The daily average output of raw coal from 523 coking coal mines was 190.30, down 0.60. The inventory of imported coking coal at 16 ports was 507.18 million tons, up 19.02; the inventory of coke at 18 ports was 260.79 million tons, up 8.14. The total inventory of coking coal of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 1029.70 million tons, up 32.33; the inventory of coke of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 58.64 million tons, up 1.35. The inventory of coking coal of 247 steel mills nationwide was 782.96 million tons, down 5.36; the inventory of coke of 247 sample steel mills was 633.16 million tons, down 6.28. The available days of coking coal of all - sample independent coking enterprises were 12.77 days, down 0.13; the available days of coke of 247 sample steel mills were 11.07 days, down 0.12 [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of coking coal was 1092.36 million tons, up 76.14; the export volume of coke and semi - coke was 54.00 million tons, down 1.00. The output of coking coal was 3696.86 million tons, down 392.52. The capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 73.47%, down 0.77. The profit per ton of coke of independent coking plants was - 41.00 yuan/ton, down 28.00. The output of coke was 4255.60 million tons, down 4.10 [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 84.73%, up 0.48; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 89.92%, down 0.39. The crude steel output was 7349.01 million tons, down 387.84 [2]. 3.6 Industry News - China's President Xi Jinping will meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea on October 30 to exchange views on Sino - US relations and issues of common concern [2]. - The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00% and will end the balance - sheet reduction from December 1 [2]. - The Bank of Canada cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% [2]. - Some coking enterprises in Hebei and Shandong proposed a third price increase for coke on October 29, with a tamping increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton and a top - charging increase of 70 - 75 yuan/ton, effective from 0:00 on October 31 [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, supply-side domestic soda ash operating rate and production are decreasing, with some enterprises planning short-term shutdowns for maintenance. Demand-side glass production remains at the bottom, and the photovoltaic glass market is stable but may reduce demand later. Domestic soda ash enterprise inventories are increasing, and supply exceeds demand, suppressing prices. It is recommended to go long on the soda ash main contract at low levels in the short term [2]. - For glass, the "coal-to-gas" project in the Shahe area may potentially reduce short - term supply, and the market has an enhanced expectation of capacity contraction. The real estate industry, the largest downstream demand area, is in a downturn, and the demand for glass is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see for the glass main contract in the short term [2]. 3. Key Points by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price is -24 yuan/ton, glass main contract closing price is 1235 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 36 yuan/ton. The price difference between soda ash and glass is 12 yuan/ton. Soda ash main contract positions decreased by 22,468 hands to 1,332,613 hands, and glass main contract positions are 202,209 hands. Soda ash's top 20 net positions decreased by 26,849 to 1,875,547 hands, and glass's top 20 net positions are -64,260 hands. Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts are 8,945 tons, and glass exchange warehouse receipts are -13 tons. Soda ash basis is 402 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton, and glass basis is 36 yuan/ton. The spread between January and May glass contracts is -43 yuan/ton, and for soda ash contracts is -89 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - North China heavy - soda ash price decreased by 2 yuan/ton, Central China heavy - soda ash price is 1,189 yuan/ton. East China light - soda ash price has no change, Central China light - soda ash price is 1,250 yuan/ton. Shahe glass large - plate price increased by 4 yuan/ton, Central China glass large - plate price is 1,048 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate increased by 0.01%, and float glass enterprise operating rate is 84.94%. Glass in - production capacity is 16.12 million tons/year, and the number of in - production glass production lines is 226. Soda ash enterprise inventories decreased by 0.97 million tons, and glass enterprise inventories increased by 233.7 million weight boxes to 6,661.3 million weight boxes [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The cumulative value of real estate new construction area is 5,597.99 million square meters, and the cumulative value of real estate completion area is 45,399 million square meters, an increase of 3,435.46 million square meters compared to 31,129 million square meters [2]. 3.5 Industry News - China and the US held a meeting in Busan, South Korea, and agreed to strengthen cooperation in economic and trade fields. They reached consensus on issues such as fentanyl anti - drug cooperation, expanding agricultural product trade, and handling individual cases of relevant enterprises. The US made positive commitments in investment and other fields, and China will properly handle the TikTok - related issue with the US [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a short - biased trading strategy [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - At the end of the month, supply pressure eases briefly, demand recovers, and second - fattening entry supports a small increase in the spot price, followed by a stable and volatile trend. However, after the price increase, second - fattening entry becomes cautious, terminal demand's carrying capacity is poor, market sentiment weakens, and the 2601 contract closes down 2.3% [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The closing price of the main futures contract for live pigs is 11,880 yuan/ton, down 305 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 135,813 lots, up 16,025 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 206 lots, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 31,311 lots, down 1,076 lots [2] - Spot: The live pig price in Henan Zhumadian is 12,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin Siping, it is 12,500 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; in Guangdong Yunfu, it is 13,100 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the main live pig basis is 720 yuan/ton, up 305 yuan [2] 2. Upstream Situation - Pig inventory is 42,4470,000 heads, up 7160,000 heads; the inventory of breeding sows is 4,0380,000 heads, down 40,000 heads; CPI year - on - year is - 0.3%, up 0.1 percentage points; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2,970 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of corn is 2,242.16 yuan/ton, down 0.59 yuan; the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index is 879.54, up 0.69; the monthly output of feed is 31,287,000 tons, up 2,015,000 tons; the price of binary breeding sows is 1,530 yuan/head, unchanged; the breeding profit of purchased piglets is - 289.07 yuan/head, up 86.22 yuan; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised pigs is - 185.68 yuan/head, up 59.02 yuan; the monthly import volume of pork is 80,000 tons, unchanged; the average price of white - striped chicken in the main producing areas is 14.1 yuan/kg, down 0.2 yuan [2] 3. Downstream Situation - The slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises is 33,500,000 heads, up 1,840,000 heads; the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 450.86 billion yuan, up 12.9 billion yuan [2] 4. Industry News - On October 30, 2025, the daily national live pig出栏量 of key breeding enterprises was 284,450 heads, a 2.57% decrease from the previous day. At the supply end, the出栏 rhythm of large - scale farms slowed down at the end of the month and the beginning of the month, and the average出栏 weight decreased slightly, reducing supply pressure. In the second - fattening aspect, there was concentrated entry for supplementary stocking in the middle and late ten - day periods, supporting the spot market price to stop falling and rebound, but the enthusiasm for second - fattening entry cooled down as the price rose [2] 5. Key Points of Concern - There is no news today [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The lithium carbonate market shows a pattern of increasing supply and demand with inventory reduction. The main contract is oscillating strongly, with increasing positions, spot discounts, and strengthening basis. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility is slightly rising. The technical indicator shows that the 60 - minute MACD has double - lines above the 0 - axis with the initial appearance of green columns. The operation suggestion is to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control risks [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 83,400 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 195,625 hands, up 8,348 hands; the position of the main contract is 532,871 hands, up 25,989 hands; the spread between near and far - month contracts is - 1,160 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 27,641 hands/ton, up 116 hands [2] 现货市场 - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 80,000 yuan/ton, up 850 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 77,800 yuan/ton, up 850 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is - 3,400 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 983 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite is 9,075 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) is 3,060 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan [2] Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 47,140 tons, up 1,260 tons; the monthly import volume is 19,596.9 tons, down 2,250.01 tons; the monthly export volume is 150.82 tons, down 218.09 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 47%, up 1%; the monthly output of power batteries is 151,200 MWh, up 11,600 MWh; the price of lithium manganate is 33,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 105,000 yuan/ton, up 25,000 yuan; the price of lithium cobalt oxide is 343,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of ternary material (811 type) in China is 163,500 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan; the price of ternary material (622 power type) in China is 143,500 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan [2] Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China is 155,000 yuan/ton, up 1,000 yuan; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 53%, down 2%; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 34,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 59%, up 2%; the monthly output of new energy vehicles is 1,617,000, up 226,000; the monthly sales volume is 1,604,000, up 209,000; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles is 46.09%, up 0.55%; the cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles is 11,228,000, up 2,908,000; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 222,000, down 2,000; the cumulative export volume of new energy vehicles is 1,758,000, up 830,000; the 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 22.82%, down 0.82%; the 40 - day average volatility of the underlying is 25.92%, up 0.01% [2] Option Situation - The total subscription position is 166,407, up 7,024; the total put position is 95,396, up 9,624; the total position put - call ratio is 57.33%, up 3.5119%; the at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.34%, up 0.0008% [2] Industry News - China has built a complete lithium product supply system, with the output of basic lithium salts, metal lithium and its alloys, lithium - ion battery cathode materials, electrolytes and other products ranking first in the world for many years. Leading battery manufacturers are placing large orders for lithium iron phosphate, and lithium iron phosphate manufacturers are starting a new round of capacity expansion. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, ending the balance - sheet reduction from December 1st. The inventory coefficient of automobile dealers in September was 1.35, up 3.1% month - on - month and 4.7% year - on - year [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - BZ2603 showed a slight fluctuation, closing at 5,526 yuan/ton. Last week, the operating load of petroleum benzene decreased while the operating rate of hydrobenzene increased, resulting in an overall decline in domestic pure benzene production. The operating rates of downstream industries mostly decreased, with the weighted operating rate of pure benzene downstream industries declining on a week-on-week basis. Inventory was reduced to a neutral level. The profit of petroleum benzene changed little and was at a low valuation level due to weak supply and demand. This week, petroleum benzene plants are expected to operate with a slight reduction in load, but with the increase in the load of hydrobenzene and the arrival of imported resources, the domestic supply of pure benzene is still expected to be at a relatively high level. Terminal demand is weak, and downstream plants are expected to mainly reduce their operating rates. The recent new capacity launch in the downstream is difficult to offset the negative impact of the reduction in the load of existing plants. In terms of cost, the market expects a slight increase in production by OPEC+ in December, and combined with the weak demand side of crude oil, international oil prices are under pressure. In the short term, BZ2603 is expected to show a fluctuating trend, and technically, attention should be paid to the previous low support around 5,440 and the previous high pressure around 5,640 [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of pure benzene was 5,526 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan; the settlement price was 5,501 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan. The trading volume was 6,746 lots, up 1,863 lots; the open interest was down 65 lots. The mainstream price in the East China market was 5,450 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the North China market, it was 5,495 yuan/ton, up 495 yuan [2]. Spot Market - The mainstream price of pure benzene in the South China market was 5,435 - 5,450 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northeast region, it was 5,130 - 5,170 yuan/ton, down 21 - 100 yuan. The mainstream price of hydrobenzene in Jiangsu was 5,325 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; in Shanxi, it was 5,105 yuan/ton. The FOB mid - price of pure benzene in South Korea was 660 US dollars/ton, down 11 US dollars; the CFR mid - price of pure benzene in China was 675.84 US dollars/ton, down 11.13 US dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The spot price of Brent DTD crude oil was 64.5 US dollars/barrel, down 1.96 US dollars. The CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan was 568.63 US dollars/ton, down 9 US dollars. The capacity utilization rate of pure benzene was 78.14%, up 0.13 percentage points; the weekly output was 42.61 tons, down 1.19 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The port inventory of pure benzene was 9.9 tons, up 0.9 tons. The production cost of pure benzene was 5,327.8 yuan/ton, down 118.2 yuan; the production profit was 737 yuan/ton, up 76 yuan [2]. Downstream Situation - The total operating rate of styrene was 69.25%, down 2.63 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam was 95.72%, up 6.41 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of phenol was 78.54%, down 0.46 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of aniline was 69.24%, down 0.1 percentage point; the capacity utilization rate of adipic acid was 64.3%, up 2 percentage points [2]. Industry News - From October 18th to 24th, the capacity utilization rate of petroleum benzene decreased by 2.75% to 72.73% week - on - week, while the capacity utilization rate of hydrobenzene increased by 1.07% to 63.46%. The operating rates of styrene, caprolactam, and adipic acid decreased, the operating rate of phenol remained stable, and the operating rate of aniline increased. The weighted operating rate of pure benzene downstream industries decreased by 1.97% to 73.40% week - on - week. As of October 27th, the port inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu decreased by 14.14% to 8.5 tons week - on - week. From October 17th to 23rd, the profit of petroleum benzene in China was 385 yuan/ton [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. Driven by optimistic trade sentiment, the two meals have rebounded synchronously recently, and rapeseed meal will continue to fluctuate strongly. The trade policies between China and Canada and between China and the US should be monitored [2]. - International trade relations are expected to improve, causing rapeseed oil prices to decline again. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term. The trade policy direction between China and Canada should be continuously monitored [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures closing prices of rapeseed oil, rapeseed meal, and domestic rapeseed decreased, while ICE rapeseed futures increased. Most of the month - to - month spreads, positions, and net long positions decreased, and the number of rapeseed oil warrants remained unchanged while that of rapeseed meal decreased [2]. Spot Market - Spot prices of rapeseed oil and soybean oil decreased, while that of rapeseed meal increased. The average price of rapeseed oil decreased, and the import cost of rapeseed increased. The oil - meal ratio decreased, and the basis of the main contracts of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal increased. The spot price differences between rapeseed oil and soybean oil, and between rapeseed oil and palm oil decreased, and the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal also decreased [2]. Upstream Situation - Global rapeseed production is expected to increase, and China's rapeseed imports decreased. The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills decreased, and the weekly startup rate of imported rapeseed decreased. The import cost of rapeseed increased, and the import rapeseed crushing profit increased [2]. Industry Situation - The import volume of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal increased, while the inventory of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal in coastal and eastern regions decreased. The weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal decreased [2]. Downstream Situation - The production of feed and edible vegetable oil increased, and the total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry increased [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options of rapeseed meal decreased, and the historical volatility of 20 - day and 60 - day rapeseed meal decreased and increased respectively. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options of rapeseed oil increased, and the historical volatility of 20 - day and 60 - day rapeseed oil decreased [2]. Industry News - ICE rapeseed futures rose due to continued optimism about China - US trade negotiations in the Chicago soybean market. The US soybean harvest rate reached 84%, and the supply - side pressure continued to restrain its market price. China and the US held economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, and President Xi Jinping will meet with President Trump in Busan, South Korea [2]. Rapeseed Meal Summary - The rapeseed meal market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The trade optimism supports the sharp rise of the US soybean market price, and domestic rapeseed meal continues to fluctuate strongly [2]. Rapeseed Oil Summary - The harvest of Canadian rapeseed is over, and the supply - side pressure is high. The GAPKI expects an increase in Indonesian palm oil production, and the B50 biodiesel plan is uncertain. The initial ruling on anti - dumping policies for Canadian rapeseed has been implemented, and domestic rapeseed oil will continue to reduce inventory, but the demand is mainly for rigid needs [3]. Key Focus - Monitor the rapeseed startup rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventory in various regions on Myagric website on Monday, as well as the trade relations between China and Canada and between China and the US [3]