偏低，销售压力不大，交易以质定价，整体走货速度减缓。个别产区早熟返青现象严重，早熟苹果价格短 时间内出现下滑。总体来说，早熟品种收购价下滑，且果农有让价成交情况，施压苹果市场，不过旧作库 数据来源第三方(我的农产品网、中果网、郑商所)，观点仅供参考，市场有风险，入市需谨慎！ 研究员: 张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0018457 存偏低仍有一定支撑，下跌空间有限，预计区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 苹果产业日报 2025-08-04 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

纯碱玻璃产业日报 2025-08-04 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1253 | -3 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1086 | -16 | | | 纯碱与玻璃价差(日,元/吨) | 167 | 13 纯碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 921926 | -52098 | | | 玻璃主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 1168598 | 67333 纯碱前20名净持仓 | -333439 | -10162 | | | 玻璃前20名净持仓 | -241904 | -2357 纯碱交易所仓单(日,吨) | 2790 | 468 | | | 玻璃交易所仓单(日,吨) | 1700 | 0 纯碱9月-1月合约价差 | -77 | 1 | | | 玻璃合约9月-1月价差 | -122 | -15 纯碱基差(日,元/吨) | 54 | 65 | | | 玻璃基差(日,元/吨) | 67 | 66 | | | | | 华北重碱(日,元/ ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - Last week, methanol port inventories increased as expected, mainly in the South China region. Typhoon weather affected the unloading speed and inventory build - up. The mainstream social warehouses in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang area and other consumption areas were weak and stable, so the inventory continued to increase. In the short term, the on - the - way foreign vessels are still sufficient while the apparent demand may remain weak. It is expected that the port methanol inventory may continue to increase, but the impact of weather factors on the unloading speed needs to be monitored. In terms of demand, after the restart of the olefin enterprise in Zhongmei Mengda last week, its load is increasing. Zhejiang Xingxing stopped production mid - week. After the offset, the olefin industry's operating rate increased slightly. Zhejiang Xingxing's olefin plant continues to be shut down, and Xinjiang Hengyou is expected to start production this week. There is still room for the olefin industry's operating rate to rise. The MA2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2350 - 2400 in the short term [2] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2390 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread of methanol was - 97 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton; the position volume of the main methanol contract was 498,785 lots, down 34,291 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 96,632 lots, up 1,816 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 8,546, unchanged [2] 现货市场 - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2360 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia was 2075 yuan/ton, up 12.5 yuan/ton; the price difference between East China and Northwest China was 285 yuan/ton, down 32.5 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was - 30 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton; CFR China Main Port was 269 dollars/ton, down 3 dollars/ton; CFR Southeast Asia was 333 dollars/ton, unchanged; FOB Rotterdam was 244 euros/ton, down 1 euro/ton; the price difference between China Main Port and Southeast Asia was - 64 dollars/ton, down 3 dollars/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.1 dollars/million British thermal units, unchanged [2] Industrial Situation - The inventory in East China ports was 57.2 tons, up 2.5 tons; the inventory in South China ports was 23.64 tons, up 5.76 tons; the methanol import profit was 52.08 yuan/ton, up 20.57 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume was 122.02 tons, down 7.21 tons; the inventory of inland enterprises was 324,500 tons, down 15,300 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises was 85.36%, up 1.38% [2] Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde was 43.29%, up 5.55%; the operating rate of acetic acid was 91.4%, down 1.29%; the operating rate of dimethyl ether was 5.33%, up 0.14%; the operating rate of MTBE was 67.79%, down 1.22%; the operating rate of olefins was 85.27%, up 0.32%; the on - paper profit of methanol - to - olefins was - 896 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 26.06%, up 0.05%; the 40 - day historical volatility of methanol was 27.47%, up 0.02%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol was 17.35%, down 2.94%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for methanol was 17.35%, down 2.94% [2] 2. Industry News - As of July 30, the inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises was 32.45 tons, a decrease of 1.53 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 4.51%; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 23.07 tons, a decrease of 1.41 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 5.76% [2] - As of July 30, the total inventory of China's methanol ports was 80.84 tons, an increase of 8.26 tons from the previous data. Among them, the inventory in East China increased by 2.50 tons, and the inventory in South China increased by 5.76 tons [2] - Recently, the output of restored domestic methanol production capacity is more than the loss of production capacity due to maintenance and production cuts, and the overall output has increased slightly. Last week, the inventory of inland enterprises decreased slightly, but the resumption of some regional plants and the increase in load may lead to an increase in regional inventory. In the short term, the enterprise inventory may show obvious regional differentiation [2] - As of July 31, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins plants was 86.39%, a month - on - month increase of 0.32% [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Domestic agricultural demand for urea is in a seasonal off - peak, and demand continues to weaken. Although it's entering the autumn fertilizer production stage, the increase in the compound fertilizer industry's demand for urea is slow, and downstream factories mainly make small - quantity purchases at low prices. - The export of urea fails to meet expectations, new orders for factories slow down, and the inventory of domestic urea enterprises still has a tendency to accumulate in the short term. - It is recommended to trade the UR2509 contract in the range of 1680 - 1760 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1733 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan; the 9 - 1 spread is - 21 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan. - The main contract's open interest is 142,211 lots, down 489 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 21,151 lots, down 3849 lots. - The exchange warehouse receipts are 3373 lots, unchanged [2]. 3.2现货市场 - In the domestic spot market, prices in Hebei remain unchanged at 1750 yuan/ton, in Henan and Jiangsu are down 10 yuan/ton to 1770 yuan/ton, in Shandong remain unchanged at 1760 yuan/ton, and in Anhui are down 10 yuan/ton to 1780 yuan/ton. - The main contract basis is 27 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan. - FOB Baltic is 435 dollars/ton, up 5 dollars; FOB China's main port is 410 dollars/ton, down 15 dollars [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Port inventory is 49.3 million tons, down 5 million tons; enterprise inventory is 91.73 million tons, up 5.85 million tons. - The urea enterprise operating rate is 83.6%, up 0.01%; the daily output is 193,500 tons, unchanged. - The urea export volume is 7 million tons, up 7 million tons; the monthly output is 6,031,340 tons, down 261,890 tons [2]. 3.4下游情况 - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 38.68%, up 5.1%; the melamine operating rate is 63.5%, down 1.7%. - The weekly profit of compound fertilizer is 101 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with purchased urea is - 395 yuan/ton, up 104 yuan. - The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 4.1682 million tons, down 0.6408 million tons; the weekly output of melamine is 31,500 tons, down 900 tons [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of July 30, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 91.73 million tons, up 5.85 million tons from last week, a 6.81% increase. - As of July 31, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 49.3 million tons, down 5 million tons from last week, a 9.21% decrease. - As of July 31, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1.3548 million tons, up 0.01 million tons from the previous period, a 0.01% increase; the capacity utilization rate was 83.60%, up 0.01% from the previous period [2].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - International factors such as good production prospects in major Asian sugar - producing countries, strong production signs in Brazil, and a weak US employment report have put pressure on raw sugar prices. Domestically, the opening of the extra - quota profit window has released import pressure. Although the demand side has some support due to the hot summer and the need for food and beverage industries to stock up, overall, the weakening of the outer - market price drags down the domestic sugar price, and with the continuous opening of the import profit window and strengthened import expectations, the short - term trend is a weak and volatile one [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for sugar is 5718 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the main contract position is 205,423 hands, down 25,642 hands; the warehouse receipt quantity is 19,373 sheets, down 70 sheets; the import processing estimated price for Brazilian sugar (within quota) is 4466 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; for Thai sugar (within quota) is 4542 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; the import estimated price for Brazilian sugar (outside quota, 50% tariff) and Thai sugar (outside quota, 50% tariff) are both down 18 yuan [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5865 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; in Nanning is 6030 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Liuzhou is 6080 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sowing area is 1480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the sowing area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, down 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The national cumulative sugar production is 1116.21 million tons, up 5.49 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales volume is 811.38 million tons, up 86.92 million tons; the national industrial sugar inventory is 304.83 million tons, down 81.43 million tons; the national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, up 7.47 percentage points; the monthly sugar import volume is 420,000 tons, up 70,000 tons; the monthly Brazilian sugar export volume is 335.9 million tons, up 110.24 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, up 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft - drink production is 2.9%, down 0.1 percentage point [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 5.86%, down 2.08 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar is 5.86%, down 2.08 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 6.22%, up 0.05 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of sugar is 7.05%, down 0.03 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In the first half of July, the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil increased by 15% year - on - year to 341 million tons; the Pakistani government has ordered the import of 200,000 tons of sugar to stabilize domestic prices and relieve the burden on consumers [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - On Monday, the Red Date 2601 contract closed down 0.18%. As of the week ending July 31, the physical inventory at 36 sample points was 10,039 tons, a decrease of 51 tons from the previous week, a 0.51% week - on - week decrease and an 81.11% year - on - year increase. The sample point inventory declined. The arrival of goods in the sales area increased, and the downstream's periodic replenishment supported the price of high - quality goods to rise. The downstream demand in the southern market increased, and the market trading atmosphere improved slightly. [2] - The new - season crops are in the critical fruit - setting period. The market focuses on the weather in the production area. The maximum temperature in Xinjiang will decrease in the next few days, reducing the weather risk. Continuously monitor the situation of the second and third crops of flowers and fruits. [2] - Based on the situation in each production area compared with the normal - year output in 2022, Mysteel preliminarily estimates that the output will decrease by 5 - 10% compared with 2022 and 20 - 25% compared with 2024. The estimated new - season output is 560,000 - 620,000 tons. The new - season output is expected to decrease, but the reduction is less than that in the extremely low - yield year of 2023. Overall, the rising price of high - quality goods supports the firm operation of red date futures prices, but the short - term driving force is limited due to the cooling of the weather theme. Continuously monitor the weather changes. [2] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for red dates was 10,860 yuan/ton, and the position of the main contract was 135,959 lots, a decrease of 4,569 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 23,376 lots, a decrease of 3,443 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 9,248, and the total valid warehouse receipt forecast was 1,044, a decrease of 64. [2] Spot Market - The prices of red date bulk goods in Kashgar, Alar, and Aksu were 6 yuan/kg, 5.2 yuan/kg, and 4.8 yuan/kg respectively, with no change. The wholesale prices of first - grade grey dates in Hebei and Henan were 4.55 yuan/jin and 4.5 yuan/jin respectively, with no change. The prices of special - grade red dates in Henan, Hebei, and Guangdong were 10 yuan/kg, 10.09 yuan/kg, and 11.2 yuan/kg respectively, with a 0.11 - yuan increase in Hebei and no change in others. The price of first - grade red dates in Guangdong was 10 yuan/kg, with no change. [2] Upstream Market - The annual output of red dates was 6.069 million tons, an increase of 3.187 million tons, and the planting area was 1.993 million hectares, a decrease of 41,000 hectares. [2] Industry Situation - The national red date inventory was 10,039 tons, a decrease of 51 tons. The monthly export volume of red dates was 1,765,107 kg, a decrease of 464,120 kg, and the cumulative export volume was 17,115,674 kg. [2] Downstream Situation - The wholesale price of red dates in the Hexi Agricultural and Sideline Products Market in Taiyuan, Shanxi was 20 yuan/kg, a decrease of 8 yuan. The cumulative sales volume of red dates of Hao Xiang Ni was 36,480.43 tons, a decrease of 2,981.06 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year output growth rate was 1.47%, a decrease of 34.59 percentage points. [2] Industry News - On August 4, there was light rain in Kashgar, with temperatures ranging from 19 - 32°C. The size of jujube fruits in this area was significantly larger than that in the First Division of the Corps and Aksu. According to on - the - spot research, the per - mu yield of each regiment varied, with the mainstream per - mu yield ranging from 600 - 800 kg. Monitor the growth situation and weather changes in the production area. [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - Although the cotton 2509 contract rebounded with reduced positions, the downstream demand remained weak, the new crop area and output increased, the weather theme cooled down, and the market had expectations for quotas. Therefore, the cotton 2509 contract maintained a low and weak market. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to risk control [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract was 13,675 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan; the closing price of the main cotton yarn contract was 19,825 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan. The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was -23,840 lots, a decrease of 5,776 lots; the net position of the top 20 in cotton yarn futures was 19 lots, a decrease of 2 lots. The position volume of the main cotton contract was 304,033 lots, a decrease of 21,780 lots; the position volume of the main cotton yarn contract was 3,880 lots, a decrease of 430 lots. The number of cotton warehouse receipts was 8,684, a decrease of 123; the number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 88, a decrease of 1 [2] - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) was 15,153 yuan/ton, down 107 yuan; the China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton carded yarn 32S) was 20,670 yuan/ton, unchanged. The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) was 13,551 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the arrival price of the Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index (pure cotton carded yarn 32S) was 22,121 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan. The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding duty) was 14,318 yuan/ton; the arrival price of the Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index (pure cotton combed yarn 32S) was 23,999 yuan/ton, down 102 yuan [2] Spot Market - The arrival price of the Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index (pure cotton carded yarn 32S) was 22,121 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan; the arrival price of the Imported Cotton Yarn Price Index (pure cotton combed yarn 32S) was 23,999 yuan/ton, down 102 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area was 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output was 6.16 million tons, an increase of 0.54 million tons. The cotton - yarn price difference was 5,517 yuan/ton, an increase of 107 yuan; the industrial inventory of cotton nationwide was 850,000 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The import volume of cotton in the current month was 30,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons; the import volume of cotton yarn in the current month was 110,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons. The profit of imported cotton was 942 yuan/ton, a decrease of 46 yuan; the commercial inventory of cotton nationwide was 2.8298 million tons, a decrease of 0.6289 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days were 23.86 days, an increase of 1.52 days; the inventory days of grey cloth were 35.46 days, an increase of 2.57 days. The monthly cloth output was 2.779 billion meters, an increase of 0.109 billion meters; the monthly yarn output was 2.065 million tons, an increase of 0.114 million tons. The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 1.5266714 billion US dollars, an increase of 0.1688977 billion US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 1.2048207 billion US dollars, a decrease of 0.0583566 billion US dollars [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money call option for cotton was 10.5%, a decrease of 1.94%; the implied volatility of the at - the - money put option for cotton was 10.49%, a decrease of 1.95%. The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton was 10.87%, an increase of 0.32%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton was 9.05%, a decrease of 0.1% [2] Industry News - As of July 31, the operating load of spinning enterprises in mainstream areas was 66.6%, a decrease of 1.48% month - on - month, and the operating rate continued to decline. Last Friday, the December ICE cotton contract closed down 1.19%. The cotton 2509 contract rose 0.23%, and the cotton yarn 2509 contract closed up 0.33%. Internationally, affected by the sluggish market sentiment, the US cotton futures price declined. The US Department of Agriculture's export sales report showed that in the week ended July 24, the net export sales of US upland cotton in the 2024/25 market year increased by 39,100 bales, a sharp decrease from the previous week but a significant increase from the average of the previous four weeks. In the same week, the net export sales of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 market year increased by 71,700 bales [2] New Crop Situation - In 2025, the overall cotton planting area in China increased, and the maximum temperature in Xinjiang would decrease next week, and the weather theme cooled down [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Global natural rubber producing areas are in the tapping season. Yunnan has a shortage of raw material supply and firm purchase prices, while Hainan has normal tapping operations and seasonal output. Due to the decline in futures and spot prices, the market bearish sentiment has emerged, and local processing plants are less willing to replenish high - priced raw materials, leading to a continued decline in the glue purchase price [2]. - Recently, the total inventory of spot goods at Qingdao Port has been decreasing, with both bonded and general trade inventories showing a downward trend. The arrival and warehousing volume of overseas goods remains low, and the overall warehousing rate has decreased month - on - month. The decline in rubber prices has stimulated downstream tire enterprises to replenish goods at low prices, and the overall outbound volume has increased month - on - month [2]. - In terms of demand, the overall capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tires and all - steel tires has declined due to some enterprises' maintenance. Although the resumption of work of maintenance enterprises this week will boost the capacity utilization rate, there are also some enterprises with maintenance plans at the beginning of the month, so the overall capacity utilization rate is expected to be slightly adjusted, and the overall improvement space is limited. The ru2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14,000 - 14,700 in the short term, and the nr2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,700 - 12,500 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 14,365 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - gauge rubber contract is 12,160 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The 9 - 1 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 910 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the 9 - 10 spread of 20 - gauge rubber is - 40 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - gauge rubber is 2,205 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan [2]. - The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 77,028 lots, a decrease of 7,311 lots; the position of the main 20 - gauge rubber contract is 33,716 lots, a decrease of 3,164 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 35,534 lots, a decrease of 2,275 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - gauge rubber is - 7,967 lots, a decrease of 1,088 lots [2]. - The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 176,640 tons, a decrease of 990 tons; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - gauge rubber are 39,816 tons, an increase of 100 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 14,300 yuan/ton; the price of Thai Standard STR20 is 1,740 US dollars/ton, down 140 US dollars; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 14,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Malaysian Standard SMR20 is 1,740 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars [2]. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,050 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,000 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 12,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11,800 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan [2]. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 65 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 260 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. The price of 20 - gauge rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,369 yuan/ton, down 142 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - gauge rubber contract is 209 yuan/ton, down 127 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber is 65.33 Thai baht/kg, down 0.26 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber is 57.9 Thai baht/kg, down 4.11 Thai baht; the market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber is 54 Thai baht/kg, down 0.5 Thai baht; the market reference price of cup lump of Thai raw rubber is 47.4 Thai baht/kg, down 0.3 Thai baht [2]. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 147 US dollars/ton, up 6.2 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 46.6 US dollars/ton, up 11.4 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 12.09 million tons, a decrease of 2.73 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 28.08 million tons, an increase of 5.85 million tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 61.08%, down 3.94 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 74.45%, down 1.42 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 39.45 days, down 1.5 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period are 45.64 days, down 0.91 days [2]. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.62 million pieces, an increase of 0.8 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 55.23 million pieces, an increase of 1.08 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 22.03%, up 2.24 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 19.57%, up 1.17 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 28.92%, down 1.88 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 28.91%, down 1.89 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - From August 3 - 9, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia decreased compared with the previous period. In the northern part of the equator, the red areas are mainly in sporadic areas in southern Myanmar, and the precipitation in most other areas is low, reducing the impact on tapping; in the southern part of the equator, the red areas are mainly in eastern Malaysia, and the rainfall in most other areas is moderate, increasing the impact on tapping [2]. - As of August 3, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao is 631,800 tons, a decrease of 8,600 tons from the previous period, a decline of 1.35%. The bonded area inventory is 75,500 tons, a decline of 0.40%; the general trade inventory is 556,300 tons, a decline of 1.47%. The inbound rate of the bonded warehouse increased by 1.66 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.12 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse decreased by 2.01 percentage points, and the outbound rate increased by 0.85 percentage points [2]. - As of July 31, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 69.98%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.08 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.19 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 59.26%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.97 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.20 percentage points [2].

Report Overview - The report is a daily report on the synthetic rubber industry dated August 4, 2025 [1] 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report 2. Core View - Recently, the support from the cost and supply side has weakened. Both the synthetic rubber futures and the mainstream supply prices have shown a rapid rise and then a fall. Arbitrageurs have actively entered the market, but the downstream terminal procurement has been negative. The overall inventory of production enterprises has decreased, while the inventory of trading enterprises has slightly increased. There are short - term shutdown and maintenance expectations for the butadiene rubber plants of Qixiang Tengda and Maoming Petrochemical this week, and the Shandong Yihua butadiene rubber plant is expected to restart. The supply is expected to decrease slightly, but the inventory of production enterprises may still increase under the weak demand expectation. The overall capacity utilization rate of the tire industry is expected to be slightly adjusted, and the overall improvement space is limited. The short - term of the br2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,000 - 11,700 yuan/ton [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 11,395 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the position of the main contract is 31,806 lots, down 2,133 lots. The 9 - 10 spread of synthetic rubber is 5 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 2,490 tons, up 200 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,550 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; that from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 11,550 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 11,600 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of synthetic rubber is 205 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The price of Brent crude oil is 69.67 dollars/barrel, down 2.86 dollars; the price of WTI crude oil is 67.33 dollars/barrel, down 1.93 dollars. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 820 dollars/ton, down 7.12 dollars; the price of naphtha CFR Japan is 603.88 dollars/ton, unchanged; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,080 dollars/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 9,200 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 14.78 million tons/week, up 0.01 million tons; the capacity utilization rate is 69.97%, down 0.03 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 10,400 tons, down 5,300 tons. The operating rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit is 48.2%, up 0.04 percentage points. The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 122,500 tons, down 16,900 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 72.46%, up 4.83 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 375 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 31,300 tons, down 1,000 tons; the manufacturer's inventory is 23,800 tons, down 1,050 tons; the trader's inventory is 7,520 tons, up 50 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 74.45%, down 1.42 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 61.08%, down 3.94 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.62 million pieces, up 800,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 55.23 million pieces, up 1.08 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 39.45 days, down 1.5 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 45.64 days, down 0.91 days [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of July 30, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China is 31,300 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.09%. As of July 31, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 69.98%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.08 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 10.19 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises is 59.26%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.97 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.20 percentage points. In June 2025, China's butadiene rubber export volume was 29,748.90 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.99%; from January to June 2025, the total export volume was 152,812.3 tons, an increase of 35,992.05 tons compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 30.81%. In June 2025, China's butadiene rubber import volume was 19,183.53 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 20.38%; from January to June 2025, the total import volume was 138,619.08 tons, an increase of 2,537.53 tons compared with the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 1.86% [2]

免责声明 多晶硅产业日报 2025-08-04 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 48720 | -480 9-10多晶硅合约价差 | -155 | 25 | | | 主力持仓量:多晶硅(日,手) | 98033 | -12729 多晶硅-工业硅价差(日,元/吨) | 40360 | -340 | | 现货市场 | 品种现货价:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | 46500 | 0 多晶硅(菜花料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 30 | 0 | | | 基差:多晶硅(日,元/吨) | -2630 | 5575 多晶硅(致密料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 36 | 0 | | | 光伏级多晶硅周平均价(周,美元/千克) | 4.94 | 0 多晶硅(复投料)平均价(日,元/千克) | 34.8 | 0 | | 上游情况 | 主力合约收盘价:工业硅(日,元/吨) | 8360 | -140 出口数量工业硅(月,吨) | 52919.65 | -12 ...